2023 NWSL Season

132 regular-season games · 6 playoff teams

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

Portland Thorns

20.59% chance to win NWSL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

NY/NJ Gotham FC

7.20 points above expected

31 points · 23.80 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Red Stars

5.97 points below expected

24 points · 29.97 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	San Diego Wave FC Conference	11	7	4	37	.561	31	22	+9	31.59	+5.41
2	Portland Thorns Playoffs	10	7	5	35	.530	42	32	+10	36.05	-1.05
3	North Carolina Courage Playoffs	9	7	6	33	.500	29	22	+7	33.28	-0.28
4	Seattle Reign Playoffs	9	8	5	32	.485	29	24	+5	33.35	-1.35
5	Angel City FC Playoffs	8	7	7	31	.470	31	30	+1	26.86	+4.14
6	NY/NJ Gotham FC Playoffs	8	7	7	31	.470	25	24	+1	23.80	+7.20
7	Orlando Pride	10	11	1	31	.470	27	28	-1	25.08	+5.92
8	Washington Spirit	7	6	9	30	.455	26	29	-3	27.80	+2.20
9	Racing Louisville	6	7	9	27	.409	25	24	+1	27.71	-0.71
10	Kansas City Current	8	12	2	26	.394	30	36	-6	31.27	-5.27
11	Houston Dash	6	8	8	26	.394	16	18	-2	31.09	-5.09
12	Chicago Red Stars	7	12	3	24	.364	28	50	-22	29.97	-5.97

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	NY/NJ Gotham FC	31	23.80	+7.20
2	Orlando Pride	31	25.08	+5.92
3	San Diego Wave FC	37	31.59	+5.41
4	Angel City FC	31	26.86	+4.14
5	Washington Spirit	30	27.80	+2.20

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Red Stars	24	29.97	-5.97
2	Kansas City Current	26	31.27	-5.27
3	Houston Dash	26	31.09	-5.09
4	Seattle Reign	32	33.35	-1.35
5	Portland Thorns	35	36.05	-1.05

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Orlando Pride	3	Jul 2 – Aug 21	1 in 40
2	North Carolina Courage	4	Jun 11 – Jul 2	1 in 25
3	NY/NJ Gotham FC	2	Apr 16 – Apr 23	1 in 14
4	Angel City FC	2	Aug 28 – Sep 2	1 in 13
5	San Diego Wave FC	3	Aug 20 – Sep 4	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Current	4	May 8 – May 27	1 in 144
2	North Carolina Courage	3	Apr 2 – Apr 23	1 in 42
3	Orlando Pride	4	Mar 26 – Apr 23	1 in 40
4	San Diego Wave FC	3	Jun 17 – Jul 2	1 in 36
5	Seattle Reign	3	Jul 8 – Aug 28	1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Angel City FC	8	Jun 17 – Sep 18	1 in 80
2	Washington Spirit	7	Mar 26 – May 14	1 in 38
3	NY/NJ Gotham FC	4	May 8 – May 28	1 in 13
4	Racing Louisville	5	Jul 1 – Sep 3	1 in 11
5	San Diego Wave FC	5	May 15 – Jun 10	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Dash	8	Jun 12 – Sep 4	1 in 56
2	North Carolina Courage	7	Jul 10 – Oct 8	1 in 40
3	Washington Spirit	7	Jun 24 – Sep 17	1 in 15
4	San Diego Wave FC	5	Jun 10 – Jul 9	1 in 14
5	Chicago Red Stars	5	Apr 22 – May 21	1 in 10

Playoff Bracket

WNBA Playoffs

First Round

Seattle Reign 1

Angel City FC 0

Oct 21

NY/NJ Gotham FC 2

North Carolina Courage 0

Oct 23

Second Round

NY/NJ Gotham FC 1

Portland Thorns 0

Nov 6

Seattle Reign 1

San Diego Wave FC 0

Nov 6

Semifinals

NY/NJ Gotham FC 1

Seattle Reign 0

1 games · Nov 12–Nov 12

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FC	Stars	Dash	Current	FC	Courage	Pride	Thorns	Louisville	FC	Reign	Spirit
Angel City FC	—	1 (2.5 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	6 (2.3 exp.)	1 (3.0 exp.)	4 (2.2 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	4 (2.0 exp.)	2 (2.6 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)
Chicago Red Stars	4 (3.0 exp.)	—	3 (2.6 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	0 (3.3 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	0 (2.4 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)
Houston Dash	1 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	—	4 (2.7 exp.)	4 (3.3 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	2 (3.0 exp.)
Kansas City Current	0 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	—	4 (3.4 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	6 (3.2 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	0 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	0 (3.0 exp.)
NY/NJ Gotham FC	4 (2.4 exp.)	6 (2.2 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	—	4 (1.9 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	3 (1.9 exp.)	4 (2.4 exp.)
North Carolina Courage	1 (3.3 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	1 (3.5 exp.)	—	3 (3.4 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	6 (3.2 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	4 (2.7 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)
Orlando Pride	3 (2.5 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	—	3 (1.8 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	6 (2.4 exp.)
Portland Thorns	1 (3.5 exp.)	6 (3.2 exp.)	1 (3.1 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	3 (3.7 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	3 (3.6 exp.)	—	3 (3.4 exp.)	1 (3.1 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	4 (3.4 exp.)
Racing Louisville	2 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	6 (2.4 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	—	1 (2.4 exp.)	2 (2.2 exp.)	2 (2.7 exp.)
San Diego Wave FC	3 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	6 (3.4 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	—	0 (2.6 exp.)	1 (3.0 exp.)
Seattle Reign	3 (3.2 exp.)	6 (3.0 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	3 (3.5 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	3 (3.4 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	2 (3.2 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	—	1 (3.2 exp.)
Washington Spirit	6 (2.8 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	2 (2.4 exp.)	6 (2.4 exp.)	1 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.2 exp.)	0 (3.0 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	2 (2.7 exp.)	4 (2.4 exp.)	4 (2.2 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	10.23%	7.20%	1.89%	0.76%	0.76%	29.17%
1	10.23%	9.09%	10.23%	1.52%	1.14%	0.38%	32.58%
2	7.20%	10.23%	5.30%	1.89%	0.76%	0.38%	25.76%
3	1.89%	1.52%	1.89%	2.27%	—	0.38%	7.95%
4	0.76%	1.14%	0.76%	—	—	—	2.65%
5+	0.76%	0.38%	0.38%	0.38%	—	—	1.89%
Total	29.17%	32.58%	25.76%	7.95%	2.65%	1.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.28	+0.00
SD	1.17	1.17	1.62
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	—	22.73%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	40.91%	31.82%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Angel City FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.36	+0.05
SD	1.26	1.00	1.40
CV	0.89	0.73	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	22.73%
1	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	13.64%	22.73%	18.18%	4.55%	18.18%	100%

Chicago Red Stars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	2.27	-1.00
SD	1.03	1.86	2.16
CV	0.81	0.82	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	50.00%
1	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	50.00%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Houston Dash — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.73	0.82	-0.09
SD	0.83	0.80	1.27
CV	1.14	0.97	—
Max	2	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	36.36%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	—	100%

Kansas City Current — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.64	-0.27
SD	1.29	1.26	1.58
CV	0.95	0.77	—
Max	6	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	40.91%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	40.91%	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	100%

NY/NJ Gotham FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.09	+0.05
SD	1.17	0.87	1.40
CV	1.03	0.80	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	59.09%
2	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
3	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	45.45%	22.73%	18.18%	13.64%	—	—	100%

North Carolina Courage — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.00	+0.32
SD	1.21	1.11	1.52
CV	0.92	1.11	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	36.36%
1	18.18%	—	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Orlando Pride — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.27	-0.05
SD	1.34	1.16	2.08
CV	1.09	0.91	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	40.91%
2	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
4	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	27.27%	27.27%	13.64%	—	4.55%	100%

Portland Thorns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.45	+0.45
SD	1.31	1.30	1.99
CV	0.68	0.89	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	40.91%
1	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
2	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	36.36%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	36.36%	36.36%	—	—	—	100%

Racing Louisville — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.09	+0.05
SD	1.08	0.81	1.25
CV	0.95	0.74	—
Max	3	2	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
2	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.91%	27.27%	22.73%	9.09%	—	—	100%

San Diego Wave FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.00	+0.41
SD	0.96	1.02	1.44
CV	0.68	1.02	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
1	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	36.36%	27.27%	—	4.55%	—	100%

Seattle Reign — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.09	+0.23
SD	1.39	1.02	1.69
CV	1.06	0.93	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	—	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	45.45%	27.27%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Washington Spirit — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.32	-0.14
SD	0.96	0.99	1.25
CV	0.81	0.75	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.32	+3.7
Allowed	0.20	-2.1
Differential	0.71	+3.9

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Portland Thorns	1564	35	36.05	-1.05	46.41%	12	26	32	36	40	46	61
North Carolina Courage	1538	33	33.28	-0.28	51.53%	11	24	29	33	37	43	57
Seattle Reign	1537	32	33.35	-1.35	44.51%	10	24	29	33	37	43	58
San Diego Wave FC	1523	37	31.59	+5.41	83.89%	8	22	28	32	36	41	58
Kansas City Current	1515	26	31.27	-5.27	21.45%	8	22	27	31	35	41	59
Houston Dash	1512	26	31.09	-5.09	22.17%	7	21	27	31	35	41	57
Chicago Red Stars	1497	24	29.97	-5.97	17.86%	4	20	26	30	34	40	57
Racing Louisville	1478	27	27.71	-0.71	49.17%	4	18	24	28	32	38	53
Washington Spirit	1476	30	27.80	+2.20	67.95%	5	18	24	28	32	38	53
Angel City FC	1473	31	26.86	+4.14	78.83%	4	18	23	27	31	37	52
Orlando Pride	1453	31	25.08	+5.92	86.47%	3	16	21	25	29	35	50
NY/NJ Gotham FC	1435	31	23.80	+7.20	90.87%	4	15	20	24	28	33	51

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Portland Thorns	28.27%	18.15%	13.41%	10.32%	8.17%	6.39%	4.96%	3.67%	2.84%	1.94%	1.24%	0.62%
Seattle Reign	15.05%	14.17%	12.79%	11.40%	9.88%	8.82%	7.56%	6.36%	5.27%	4.09%	2.86%	1.77%
North Carolina Courage	14.76%	14.05%	12.74%	11.41%	9.87%	8.85%	7.60%	6.46%	5.33%	4.29%	2.88%	1.76%
San Diego Wave FC	9.30%	10.70%	10.84%	10.80%	10.33%	9.78%	8.97%	8.17%	7.17%	6.00%	4.76%	3.16%
Kansas City Current	8.76%	10.02%	10.36%	10.37%	10.19%	9.77%	9.12%	8.49%	7.64%	6.60%	5.19%	3.49%
Houston Dash	8.24%	9.69%	10.09%	10.38%	10.27%	9.82%	9.40%	8.62%	7.54%	6.76%	5.45%	3.72%
Chicago Red Stars	5.94%	7.56%	8.73%	9.25%	9.58%	9.91%	9.94%	9.59%	8.89%	8.22%	7.07%	5.32%
Washington Spirit	2.97%	4.54%	5.72%	6.89%	7.93%	8.80%	9.69%	10.36%	10.90%	11.06%	11.24%	9.89%
Racing Louisville	2.87%	4.39%	5.71%	6.65%	7.78%	8.71%	9.60%	10.35%	11.06%	11.57%	11.27%	10.03%
Angel City FC	2.08%	3.50%	4.64%	5.67%	6.91%	8.02%	9.20%	10.35%	11.60%	12.31%	13.00%	12.73%
Orlando Pride	1.14%	1.96%	2.93%	3.99%	5.13%	6.18%	7.51%	9.38%	11.32%	13.40%	16.99%	20.07%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	0.61%	1.26%	2.05%	2.86%	3.96%	4.96%	6.46%	8.19%	10.41%	13.76%	18.06%	27.43%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Portland Thorns	28.27%	18.15%	13.41%	10.32%	8.17%	6.39%	15.28%
Seattle Reign	15.05%	14.17%	12.79%	11.40%	9.88%	8.82%	27.90%
North Carolina Courage	14.76%	14.05%	12.74%	11.41%	9.87%	8.85%	28.32%
San Diego Wave FC	9.30%	10.70%	10.84%	10.80%	10.33%	9.78%	38.24%
Kansas City Current	8.76%	10.02%	10.36%	10.37%	10.19%	9.77%	40.53%
Houston Dash	8.24%	9.69%	10.09%	10.38%	10.27%	9.82%	41.51%
Chicago Red Stars	5.94%	7.56%	8.73%	9.25%	9.58%	9.91%	49.04%
Washington Spirit	2.97%	4.54%	5.72%	6.89%	7.93%	8.80%	63.14%
Racing Louisville	2.87%	4.39%	5.71%	6.65%	7.78%	8.71%	63.88%
Angel City FC	2.08%	3.50%	4.64%	5.67%	6.91%	8.02%	69.18%
Orlando Pride	1.14%	1.96%	2.93%	3.99%	5.13%	6.18%	78.66%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	0.61%	1.26%	2.05%	2.86%	3.96%	4.96%	84.30%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+12.88%

Fortress

43.94%25.00%31.06%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 45.00 Elo pts.

309 Elo

0.003 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.22 goals

Lean Home

-2+0.15+2

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 4.71 · As Expected: 4.71 to 6.47 · Elevated: 6.47 to 8.82 · High Variance: 8.82 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.26 · Close: 2.26 to 3.06 · Off Target: 3.06 to 3.99 · Well Off Target: 3.99 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.44 · As Expected: 1.44 to 2.4 · More Than Expected: 2.4 to 3.84 · Far More Than Expected: 3.84 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.37 points

Subdued

05.8815

Average Finish Error

Expected

3.00

02.666

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

90.87%

NY/NJ Gotham FC

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

17.85%

Chicago Red Stars

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

2 of 6

As Expected

01.96

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.07

Highly Balanced

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.55

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

57%

Even

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

68%

Clear Edge

50%68%100%

Close Games

Expected

70%

Nail-Biters

0%64%100%

Blowouts

Expected

11%

Occasional

0%12%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.66

Hard to Predict

00.652

Matchup Imbalance

0.21

Slight Separation

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.56

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.34

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

36%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.14 · Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.27 · Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.25

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.09

Overconfident

01.002.18883

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.087

Within Noise

00.1360.3

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Quarterfinals	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals
Portland Thorns	34.65%	19.15%	34.65%	20.59%
Seattle Reign	26.49%	21.44%	26.49%	14.11%
North Carolina Courage	26.25%	21.43%	26.25%	13.97%
San Diego Wave FC	20.92%	20.88%	20.92%	10.44%
Kansas City Current	20.34%	20.34%	19.78%	9.63%
Houston Dash	20.28%	20.28%	19.15%	9.19%
Chicago Red Stars	18.73%	18.73%	15.70%	7.12%
Washington Spirit	14.67%	14.67%	10.20%	4.25%
Racing Louisville	14.43%	14.43%	9.96%	4.17%
Angel City FC	12.62%	12.62%	8.19%	3.37%
Orlando Pride	9.12%	9.12%	5.19%	1.92%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	6.91%	6.91%	3.52%	1.23%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Racing Louisville	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
Angel City FC		46.1%0.23%	44.3%0.29%	40.3%0.32%	56.4%0.04%	40.5%0.53%	56.1%0.06%	33.6%0.79%	52.7%0.13%	42.9%0.35%	40.3%0.49%	49.8%0.14%
Chicago Red Stars	53.9%0.23%		50.3%0.65%	48.0%0.67%	59.6%0.08%	43.8%1.12%	55.7%0.13%	38.9%1.77%	50.7%0.30%	46.1%0.76%	42.4%1.10%	53.3%0.30%
Houston Dash	55.7%0.29%	49.7%0.65%		48.8%0.94%	62.4%0.11%	45.4%1.40%	64.0%0.18%	41.7%2.34%	53.9%0.38%	48.6%1.06%	45.9%1.45%	57.2%0.38%
Kansas City Current	59.7%0.32%	52.0%0.67%	51.2%0.94%		65.5%0.11%	45.7%1.51%	60.9%0.18%	43.1%2.54%	54.1%0.41%	49.5%1.04%	46.8%1.48%	57.3%0.42%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	43.6%0.04%	40.4%0.08%	37.6%0.11%	34.5%0.11%		33.8%0.19%	48.6%0.02%	31.7%0.29%	52.9%0.04%	36.2%0.13%	32.2%0.17%	41.1%0.04%
North Carolina Courage	59.5%0.53%	56.2%1.12%	54.6%1.40%	54.3%1.51%	66.2%0.19%		63.4%0.30%	46.3%3.75%	59.6%0.60%	53.6%1.63%	50.0%2.30%	60.2%0.63%
Orlando Pride	43.9%0.06%	44.3%0.13%	36.0%0.18%	39.1%0.18%	51.4%0.02%	36.6%0.30%		31.6%0.44%	53.2%0.08%	37.0%0.18%	35.3%0.27%	41.9%0.07%
Portland Thorns	66.4%0.79%	61.1%1.77%	58.3%2.34%	56.9%2.54%	68.3%0.29%	53.7%3.75%	68.4%0.44%		64.9%1.02%	57.4%2.73%	55.4%3.90%	64.0%1.01%
Racing Louisville	47.3%0.13%	49.3%0.30%	46.1%0.38%	45.9%0.41%	47.1%0.04%	40.4%0.60%	46.8%0.08%	35.1%1.02%		41.6%0.43%	42.2%0.60%	55.3%0.17%
San Diego Wave FC	57.1%0.35%	53.9%0.76%	51.4%1.06%	50.5%1.04%	63.8%0.13%	46.4%1.63%	63.0%0.18%	42.6%2.73%	58.4%0.43%		48.2%1.69%	59.0%0.44%
Seattle Reign	59.7%0.49%	57.6%1.10%	54.1%1.45%	53.2%1.48%	67.8%0.17%	50.0%2.30%	64.7%0.27%	44.6%3.90%	57.8%0.60%	51.8%1.69%		60.6%0.65%
Washington Spirit	50.2%0.14%	46.7%0.30%	42.8%0.38%	42.7%0.42%	58.9%0.04%	39.8%0.63%	58.1%0.07%	36.0%1.01%	44.7%0.17%	41.0%0.44%	39.4%0.65%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Racing Louisville	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
Angel City FC		44.9%1.22%	42.1%1.38%	42.9%1.41%	55.3%0.39%	39.4%1.53%	51.6%0.50%	35.9%1.40%	49.5%0.88%	42.5%1.49%	38.2%1.55%	49.3%0.87%
Chicago Red Stars	55.1%1.22%		48.4%2.08%	48.3%2.08%	60.2%0.66%	43.6%2.35%	56.3%0.86%	38.2%2.05%	54.0%1.45%	45.8%2.17%	42.9%2.29%	53.6%1.51%
Houston Dash	57.9%1.38%	51.6%2.08%		48.3%2.33%	62.9%0.73%	46.0%2.50%	61.2%0.99%	41.1%2.13%	55.3%1.60%	49.2%2.46%	45.4%2.44%	54.6%1.64%
Kansas City Current	57.1%1.41%	51.7%2.08%	51.7%2.33%		61.2%0.77%	47.4%2.48%	60.6%0.98%	42.5%2.15%	55.9%1.63%	49.2%2.41%	46.5%2.53%	55.9%1.60%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	44.7%0.39%	39.8%0.66%	37.1%0.73%	38.8%0.77%		31.9%0.84%	49.1%0.26%	30.8%0.74%	43.8%0.46%	34.9%0.77%	34.0%0.85%	43.8%0.44%
North Carolina Courage	60.6%1.53%	56.4%2.35%	54.0%2.50%	52.6%2.48%	68.1%0.84%		62.8%1.11%	46.8%2.13%	60.9%1.73%	52.7%2.51%	49.3%2.47%	60.4%1.78%
Orlando Pride	48.4%0.50%	43.7%0.86%	38.8%0.99%	39.4%0.98%	50.9%0.26%	37.2%1.11%		33.1%1.02%	46.2%0.62%	39.0%1.02%	34.5%1.10%	46.2%0.66%
Portland Thorns	64.1%1.40%	61.8%2.05%	58.9%2.13%	57.5%2.15%	69.2%0.74%	53.2%2.13%	66.9%1.02%		63.9%1.59%	56.3%2.19%	54.2%2.13%	65.1%1.63%
Racing Louisville	50.5%0.88%	46.0%1.45%	44.7%1.60%	44.1%1.63%	56.2%0.46%	39.1%1.73%	53.8%0.62%	36.1%1.59%		41.9%1.65%	40.6%1.76%	51.0%1.05%
San Diego Wave FC	57.5%1.49%	54.2%2.17%	50.8%2.46%	50.8%2.41%	65.1%0.77%	47.3%2.51%	61.0%1.02%	43.7%2.19%	58.1%1.65%		48.5%2.51%	56.7%1.69%
Seattle Reign	61.8%1.55%	57.1%2.29%	54.6%2.44%	53.5%2.53%	66.0%0.85%	50.7%2.47%	65.5%1.10%	45.8%2.13%	59.4%1.76%	51.5%2.51%		59.7%1.80%
Washington Spirit	50.7%0.87%	46.4%1.51%	45.4%1.64%	44.1%1.60%	56.2%0.44%	39.6%1.78%	53.8%0.66%	34.9%1.63%	49.0%1.05%	43.3%1.69%	40.3%1.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Racing Louisville	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
Angel City FC		42.8%0.60%	41.8%0.77%	42.2%0.80%	59.2%0.12%	39.9%1.17%	52.8%0.17%	35.1%1.77%	50.2%0.36%	42.0%0.84%	39.8%1.20%	50.3%0.40%
Chicago Red Stars	57.2%0.60%		46.9%1.54%	48.0%1.67%	61.3%0.26%	42.4%2.30%	60.9%0.36%	39.3%3.27%	52.1%0.73%	44.6%1.77%	42.8%2.43%	52.4%0.76%
Houston Dash	58.2%0.77%	53.1%1.54%		48.8%2.05%	59.5%0.31%	47.0%2.93%	59.5%0.47%	40.5%4.08%	56.3%0.94%	48.6%2.20%	44.8%2.92%	55.8%0.94%
Kansas City Current	57.8%0.80%	52.0%1.67%	51.2%2.05%		65.6%0.33%	45.8%3.02%	59.9%0.52%	41.5%4.17%	55.0%0.99%	49.8%2.24%	46.3%3.01%	56.5%0.98%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	40.8%0.12%	38.7%0.26%	40.5%0.31%	34.4%0.33%		32.4%0.51%	42.1%0.07%	28.6%0.75%	47.5%0.14%	35.7%0.35%	33.8%0.53%	42.2%0.14%
North Carolina Courage	60.1%1.17%	57.6%2.30%	53.0%2.93%	54.2%3.02%	67.6%0.51%		64.5%0.75%	45.9%5.33%	59.6%1.44%	52.7%3.20%	49.7%4.09%	59.5%1.51%
Orlando Pride	47.2%0.17%	39.1%0.36%	40.5%0.47%	40.1%0.52%	57.9%0.07%	35.5%0.75%		31.1%1.13%	47.0%0.22%	35.4%0.53%	34.5%0.76%	40.7%0.21%
Portland Thorns	64.9%1.77%	60.7%3.27%	59.5%4.08%	58.5%4.17%	71.4%0.75%	54.1%5.33%	68.9%1.13%		65.1%2.15%	57.4%4.39%	55.9%5.38%	65.5%2.22%
Racing Louisville	49.8%0.36%	47.9%0.73%	43.7%0.94%	45.0%0.99%	52.5%0.14%	40.4%1.44%	53.0%0.22%	34.9%2.15%		42.2%1.05%	39.3%1.47%	51.6%0.46%
San Diego Wave FC	58.0%0.84%	55.4%1.77%	51.4%2.20%	50.2%2.24%	64.3%0.35%	47.3%3.20%	64.6%0.53%	42.6%4.39%	57.8%1.05%		46.8%3.23%	58.3%1.12%
Seattle Reign	60.2%1.20%	57.2%2.43%	55.2%2.92%	53.7%3.01%	66.2%0.53%	50.3%4.09%	65.5%0.76%	44.1%5.38%	60.7%1.47%	53.2%3.23%		60.1%1.47%
Washington Spirit	49.7%0.40%	47.6%0.76%	44.2%0.94%	43.5%0.98%	57.8%0.14%	40.5%1.51%	59.3%0.21%	34.5%2.22%	48.4%0.46%	41.7%1.12%	39.9%1.47%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Quarterfinals	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals	Actual Outcome
Seattle Reign	50.00%	32.51%	14.86%	Eliminated in Semifinals
NY/NJ Gotham FC	50.00%	14.96%	4.04%	Won Semifinals

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Portland Thorns	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign
Angel City FC		57.0%0.50%	35.4%1.84%	31.4%4.16%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	43.0%0.50%				32.2%2.35%	31.6%1.19%
North Carolina Courage	64.6%1.84%				45.8%7.96%	56.0%4.13%
Portland Thorns	68.6%4.16%				49.4%18.32%	60.2%9.54%
San Diego Wave FC		67.8%2.35%	54.2%7.96%	50.6%18.32%
Seattle Reign		68.4%1.19%	44.0%4.13%	39.8%9.54%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Seattle Reign
Angel City FC				35.0%50.00%
NY/NJ Gotham FC			29.9%50.00%
North Carolina Courage		70.1%50.00%
Seattle Reign	65.0%50.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Portland Thorns	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign
Angel City FC					37.2%17.49%
NY/NJ Gotham FC				27.0%14.96%
North Carolina Courage				39.8%35.04%
Portland Thorns		73.0%14.96%	60.2%35.04%
San Diego Wave FC	62.8%17.49%					54.3%32.51%
Seattle Reign					45.7%32.51%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Portland Thorns 32.03% chance to win

Finals

vs. San Diego Wave FC

Matchup

51.27%

Win Prob

49.36%

→

Semifinals

vs. North Carolina Courage

Matchup

65.92%

Win Prob

60.25%

San Diego Wave FC 28.63% chance to win

Finals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

61.10%

Win Prob

50.64%

→

Semifinals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

61.65%

Win Prob

54.29%

Seattle Reign 14.86% chance to win

Finals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

59.06%

Win Prob

39.81%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. Angel City FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.03%

→

Semifinals

vs. San Diego Wave FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.71%

North Carolina Courage 13.93% chance to win

Finals

vs. San Diego Wave FC

Matchup

50.99%

Win Prob

45.79%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. NY/NJ Gotham FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.08%

→

Semifinals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.75%

Angel City FC 6.50% chance to win

Finals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

58.23%

Win Prob

31.42%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.97%

→

Semifinals

vs. San Diego Wave FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.20%

NY/NJ Gotham FC 4.04% chance to win

Finals

vs. San Diego Wave FC

Matchup

56.15%

Win Prob

32.20%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. North Carolina Courage

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.92%

→

Semifinals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.03%

Filter by Team:

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2023-03-27	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 1-2	56.8	1469.91	1428.92	47.09%	28.41%	24.50%	+0.28	-1.37	0
2023-04-02	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-1	55.3	1468.54	1447.71	31.68%	29.85%	38.48%	-0.08	+1.18	3
2023-04-16	Racing Louisville	T 2-2	65.9	1469.72	1476.58	40.46%	29.66%	29.88%	+0.12	-0.06	4
2023-04-24	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-2	47.0	1469.66	1519.05	34.39%	29.97%	35.64%	-0.01	-1.54	4
2023-04-30	@ Portland Thorns	T 3-3	74.1	1468.12	1568.49	19.35%	25.78%	54.87%	-0.47	+0.22	5
2023-05-08	Kansas City Current	W 3-2	62.1	1468.34	1519.77	34.10%	29.96%	35.94%	-0.02	+1.12	8
2023-05-14	Washington Spirit	L 0-1	51.2	1469.46	1479.47	40.01%	29.71%	30.28%	+0.11	-1.21	8
2023-05-21	@ North Carolina Courage	T 0-0	58.2	1468.25	1535.78	22.01%	27.36%	50.63%	-0.36	+0.17	9
2023-05-27	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-4	45.9	1468.42	1537.13	21.90%	27.31%	50.78%	-0.37	-1.30	9
2023-06-06	Chicago Red Stars	L 1-2	56.6	1467.12	1501.41	36.55%	29.95%	33.50%	+0.03	-1.14	9
2023-06-11	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-2	52.8	1465.98	1479.41	27.46%	29.24%	43.30%	-0.19	-0.91	9
2023-06-17	@ San Diego Wave FC	W 2-1	60.4	1465.07	1521.84	22.98%	27.82%	49.21%	-0.33	+1.41	12
2023-06-26	Houston Dash	T 0-0	56.6	1466.48	1515.20	34.48%	29.97%	35.55%	-0.01	+0.01	13
2023-07-02	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 0-0	53.8	1466.49	1434.58	33.17%	29.94%	36.90%	-0.04	+0.02	14
2023-07-10	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	58.8	1466.51	1541.03	30.98%	29.78%	39.24%	-0.10	+1.19	17
2023-08-20	@ Racing Louisville	T 1-1	60.3	1467.70	1479.04	27.70%	29.29%	43.01%	-0.18	+0.09	18
2023-08-28	Seattle Reign	W 2-1	58.5	1467.79	1536.48	31.74%	29.85%	38.41%	-0.08	+1.17	21
2023-09-02	@ Kansas City Current	W 1-0	54.3	1468.96	1514.47	24.05%	28.25%	47.70%	-0.29	+1.38	24
2023-09-18	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 2-2	67.0	1470.34	1499.43	25.73%	28.80%	45.47%	-0.24	+0.12	25
2023-10-03	Orlando Pride	L 0-1	51.3	1470.46	1451.28	44.10%	29.09%	26.81%	+0.21	-1.30	25
2023-10-09	@ Houston Dash	W 2-1	60.0	1469.16	1514.45	24.08%	28.26%	47.67%	-0.29	+1.38	28
2023-10-15	Portland Thorns	W 5-1	52.7	1470.54	1567.03	28.26%	29.40%	42.34%	-0.17	+2.52	31
2023-03-26	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 2-3	60.8	1507.76	1517.58	27.87%	29.32%	42.80%	-0.18	-0.93	0
2023-04-01	Houston Dash	L 1-2	59.6	1506.83	1514.64	40.33%	29.67%	30.00%	+0.12	-1.22	0
2023-04-16	Kansas City Current	W 4-2	56.5	1505.61	1519.14	39.52%	29.76%	30.73%	+0.10	+1.42	3
2023-04-22	@ Seattle Reign	L 2-5	51.4	1507.03	1538.09	25.52%	28.74%	45.74%	-0.25	-1.50	3
2023-04-30	Washington Spirit	T 1-1	61.8	1505.53	1477.83	45.28%	28.84%	25.88%	+0.24	-0.11	4
2023-05-08	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 1-2	59.1	1505.42	1431.13	51.52%	27.06%	21.42%	+0.39	-1.46	4
2023-05-13	@ Racing Louisville	L 0-3	44.1	1503.96	1474.64	32.82%	29.92%	37.27%	-0.05	-1.82	4
2023-05-21	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-4	43.5	1502.14	1567.16	22.23%	27.47%	50.30%	-0.36	-1.53	4
2023-05-28	Orlando Pride	W 1-0	45.7	1500.61	1447.90	48.66%	27.98%	23.36%	+0.32	+0.80	7
2023-06-06	@ Angel City FC	W 2-1	56.6	1501.41	1467.12	33.50%	29.95%	36.55%	-0.03	+1.14	10
2023-06-11	North Carolina Courage	L 0-5	48.5	1502.55	1535.63	36.73%	29.94%	33.33%	+0.04	-2.55	10
2023-06-19	Portland Thorns	L 2-3	63.7	1500.00	1568.40	31.78%	29.85%	38.37%	-0.08	-1.02	10
2023-06-25	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 1-2	55.7	1498.98	1433.42	37.96%	29.88%	32.16%	+0.07	-1.17	10
2023-07-02	San Diego Wave FC	W 1-0	51.3	1497.81	1519.24	38.39%	29.85%	31.76%	+0.08	+1.03	13
2023-07-08	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	54.5	1498.84	1514.31	27.22%	29.19%	43.59%	-0.20	+1.29	16
2023-08-21	@ Orlando Pride	L 0-5	44.9	1500.13	1449.28	35.85%	29.97%	34.18%	+0.02	-2.51	16
2023-08-27	@ North Carolina Courage	T 1-1	63.9	1497.62	1538.97	24.47%	28.40%	47.13%	-0.28	+0.14	17
2023-09-03	@ Washington Spirit	W 2-0	47.8	1497.76	1478.67	31.45%	29.83%	38.73%	-0.08	+1.67	20
2023-09-18	Angel City FC	T 2-2	67.0	1499.43	1470.34	45.47%	28.80%	25.73%	+0.24	-0.12	21
2023-10-01	Racing Louisville	W 1-0	48.1	1499.31	1479.05	44.25%	29.06%	26.69%	+0.21	+0.90	24
2023-10-08	@ Kansas City Current	L 3-6	51.9	1500.21	1513.27	27.50%	29.25%	43.25%	-0.19	-1.59	24
2023-10-15	Seattle Reign	L 0-3	47.2	1498.62	1534.57	36.31%	29.96%	33.73%	+0.03	-1.96	24
2023-03-27	Racing Louisville	T 0-0	57.4	1514.77	1476.52	46.72%	28.51%	24.78%	+0.27	-0.13	1
2023-04-01	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	59.6	1514.64	1506.83	30.00%	29.67%	40.33%	-0.12	+1.22	4
2023-04-15	@ Portland Thorns	T 1-1	65.7	1515.86	1567.67	23.45%	28.01%	48.54%	-0.31	+0.15	5
2023-04-23	@ Washington Spirit	T 0-0	57.1	1516.01	1477.84	34.04%	29.96%	36.00%	-0.02	+0.01	6
2023-04-29	North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	54.6	1516.02	1533.63	38.94%	29.81%	31.25%	+0.09	-1.19	6
2023-05-07	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-2	46.6	1514.83	1539.55	26.20%	28.93%	44.87%	-0.23	-1.24	6
2023-05-13	Portland Thorns	W 2-1	60.7	1513.59	1568.29	33.64%	29.95%	36.41%	-0.03	+1.13	9
2023-05-21	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-3	48.4	1514.72	1518.73	40.86%	29.61%	29.53%	+0.13	-2.13	9
2023-05-27	@ Kansas City Current	W 2-0	50.5	1512.59	1514.95	28.75%	29.49%	41.76%	-0.15	+1.76	12
2023-06-04	Orlando Pride	W 2-0	41.5	1514.35	1447.10	50.59%	27.38%	22.03%	+0.36	+1.07	15
2023-06-12	NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 1-1	61.2	1515.42	1434.40	52.39%	26.75%	20.86%	+0.41	-0.19	16
2023-06-18	Seattle Reign	T 0-0	59.3	1515.23	1537.70	38.24%	29.86%	31.89%	+0.07	-0.03	17
2023-06-26	@ Angel City FC	T 0-0	56.6	1515.20	1466.48	35.55%	29.97%	34.48%	+0.01	-0.01	18
2023-07-02	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	50.8	1515.19	1540.15	26.17%	28.93%	44.90%	-0.23	-0.88	18
2023-07-08	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	54.5	1514.31	1498.84	43.59%	29.19%	27.22%	+0.20	-1.29	18
2023-08-20	Washington Spirit	T 1-1	62.2	1513.02	1478.47	46.21%	28.63%	25.16%	+0.26	-0.12	19
2023-08-27	Kansas City Current	T 1-1	63.2	1512.90	1514.40	41.22%	29.56%	29.22%	+0.14	-0.07	20
2023-09-04	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 0-1	50.7	1512.83	1519.82	28.20%	29.39%	42.41%	-0.17	-0.94	20
2023-09-16	@ Racing Louisville	W 1-0	51.9	1511.89	1480.19	33.14%	29.93%	36.92%	-0.04	+1.14	23
2023-10-02	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-0	44.4	1513.03	1436.99	39.46%	29.76%	30.78%	+0.10	+1.42	26
2023-10-09	Angel City FC	L 1-2	60.0	1514.45	1469.16	47.67%	28.26%	24.08%	+0.29	-1.38	26
2023-10-15	@ Orlando Pride	L 0-1	51.1	1513.07	1451.70	37.36%	29.91%	32.72%	+0.05	-1.15	26
2023-03-25	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	51.3	1521.96	1536.87	27.29%	29.20%	43.51%	-0.19	-0.91	0
2023-04-01	Portland Thorns	L 1-4	53.6	1521.05	1565.76	35.06%	29.97%	34.97%	+0.00	-1.91	0
2023-04-16	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 2-4	56.5	1519.14	1505.61	30.73%	29.76%	39.52%	-0.10	-1.41	0
2023-04-23	Orlando Pride	W 2-0	41.3	1517.73	1444.70	51.35%	27.12%	21.53%	+0.38	+1.05	3
2023-05-01	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-0	40.3	1518.78	1432.12	53.12%	26.48%	20.41%	+0.43	+0.99	6
2023-05-08	@ Angel City FC	L 2-3	62.1	1519.77	1468.34	35.94%	29.96%	34.10%	+0.02	-1.12	6
2023-05-15	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-2	50.8	1518.65	1516.97	41.66%	29.50%	28.83%	+0.15	-1.77	6
2023-05-21	Racing Louisville	L 0-2	50.5	1516.88	1476.46	47.01%	28.43%	24.56%	+0.28	-1.93	6
2023-05-27	Houston Dash	L 0-2	50.5	1514.95	1512.59	41.76%	29.49%	28.75%	+0.15	-1.76	6
2023-06-04	North Carolina Courage	W 1-0	52.6	1513.19	1536.66	38.10%	29.87%	32.03%	+0.07	+1.03	9
2023-06-11	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-2	56.3	1514.22	1536.81	26.43%	28.99%	44.57%	-0.22	-0.89	9
2023-06-19	Washington Spirit	L 2-3	64.9	1513.33	1480.32	46.00%	28.68%	25.32%	+0.25	-1.34	9
2023-06-25	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-1	54.9	1511.99	1446.73	37.92%	29.88%	32.20%	+0.07	+1.03	12
2023-07-02	@ Portland Thorns	W 1-0	58.3	1513.02	1570.42	22.92%	27.79%	49.29%	-0.33	+1.42	15
2023-07-08	@ Racing Louisville	L 1-2	56.7	1514.44	1477.96	33.80%	29.96%	36.24%	-0.03	-1.07	15
2023-08-19	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	52.7	1513.37	1537.52	38.00%	29.88%	32.12%	+0.07	+1.03	18
2023-08-27	@ Houston Dash	T 1-1	63.2	1514.40	1512.90	29.22%	29.56%	41.22%	-0.14	+0.07	19
2023-09-02	Angel City FC	L 0-1	54.3	1514.47	1468.96	47.70%	28.25%	24.05%	+0.29	-1.38	19
2023-09-17	@ San Diego Wave FC	W 2-1	60.6	1513.09	1520.76	28.12%	29.37%	42.50%	-0.17	+1.26	22
2023-10-01	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-2	56.7	1514.35	1475.46	34.14%	29.96%	35.89%	-0.02	-1.08	22
2023-10-08	Chicago Red Stars	W 6-3	51.9	1513.27	1500.21	43.25%	29.25%	27.50%	+0.19	+1.59	25
2023-10-15	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 2-2	66.0	1514.86	1434.98	40.00%	29.71%	30.29%	+0.11	-0.05	26
2023-03-27	@ Angel City FC	W 2-1	56.8	1428.92	1469.91	24.50%	28.41%	47.09%	-0.28	+1.37	3
2023-04-02	Seattle Reign	L 0-2	43.7	1430.29	1535.89	27.21%	29.18%	43.61%	-0.20	-1.29	3
2023-04-16	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-0	45.6	1429.00	1446.53	26.99%	29.13%	43.87%	-0.20	+1.83	6
2023-04-23	North Carolina Courage	W 1-0	52.7	1430.83	1534.92	27.38%	29.22%	43.40%	-0.19	+1.29	9
2023-05-01	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-2	40.3	1432.12	1518.78	20.41%	26.48%	53.12%	-0.43	-0.99	9
2023-05-08	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	59.1	1431.13	1505.42	21.42%	27.06%	51.52%	-0.39	+1.46	12
2023-05-14	Orlando Pride	T 0-0	53.1	1432.59	1446.78	39.42%	29.77%	30.81%	+0.10	-0.05	13
2023-05-22	@ Seattle Reign	W 4-1	54.3	1432.54	1539.82	18.84%	25.42%	55.74%	-0.49	+2.69	16
2023-05-28	@ Washington Spirit	T 1-1	59.5	1435.23	1479.62	24.16%	28.29%	47.55%	-0.29	+0.14	17
2023-06-05	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-1	48.3	1435.37	1520.86	29.59%	29.62%	40.79%	-0.13	-0.97	17
2023-06-12	@ Houston Dash	T 1-1	61.2	1434.40	1515.42	20.86%	26.75%	52.39%	-0.41	+0.19	18
2023-06-18	@ Racing Louisville	L 0-2	40.7	1434.59	1477.40	24.32%	28.35%	47.33%	-0.28	-1.17	18
2023-06-25	Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	55.7	1433.42	1498.98	32.16%	29.88%	37.96%	-0.07	+1.16	21
2023-07-02	Angel City FC	T 0-0	53.8	1434.58	1466.49	36.90%	29.94%	33.17%	+0.04	-0.02	22
2023-07-09	Portland Thorns	W 2-1	60.7	1434.56	1569.00	24.16%	28.29%	47.55%	-0.29	+1.38	25
2023-08-20	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 1-2	50.3	1435.94	1518.08	20.77%	26.70%	52.53%	-0.41	-0.71	25
2023-08-27	Racing Louisville	T 0-0	54.2	1435.23	1478.95	35.20%	29.97%	34.83%	+0.00	-0.01	26
2023-09-03	@ North Carolina Courage	T 3-3	71.8	1435.22	1538.83	19.11%	25.61%	55.28%	-0.48	+0.23	27
2023-09-17	Washington Spirit	W 2-0	44.3	1435.45	1477.00	35.51%	29.97%	34.52%	+0.01	+1.54	30
2023-10-02	Houston Dash	L 0-2	44.4	1436.99	1513.03	30.78%	29.76%	39.46%	-0.10	-1.42	30
2023-10-07	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-1	44.7	1435.57	1566.44	17.23%	24.10%	58.67%	-0.57	-0.59	30
2023-10-15	Kansas City Current	T 2-2	66.0	1434.98	1514.86	30.29%	29.71%	40.00%	-0.11	+0.06	31
2023-03-25	Kansas City Current	W 1-0	51.3	1536.87	1521.96	43.51%	29.20%	27.29%	+0.19	+0.91	3
2023-04-02	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 1-3	54.2	1537.78	1518.51	31.47%	29.83%	38.70%	-0.08	-1.44	3
2023-04-16	Washington Spirit	L 1-2	61.5	1536.34	1476.41	49.62%	27.69%	22.69%	+0.34	-1.42	3
2023-04-23	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-1	52.7	1534.92	1430.83	43.40%	29.22%	27.38%	+0.19	-1.29	3
2023-04-29	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	54.6	1533.63	1516.02	31.25%	29.81%	38.94%	-0.09	+1.19	6
2023-05-07	Portland Thorns	T 3-3	75.1	1534.82	1568.27	36.67%	29.94%	33.38%	+0.04	-0.02	7
2023-05-14	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	52.8	1534.80	1540.80	40.58%	29.64%	29.77%	+0.13	+0.98	10
2023-05-21	Angel City FC	T 0-0	58.2	1535.78	1468.25	50.63%	27.36%	22.01%	+0.36	-0.18	11
2023-05-28	@ Racing Louisville	W 2-1	57.3	1535.60	1478.39	36.77%	29.94%	33.29%	+0.04	+1.06	14
2023-06-04	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-1	52.6	1536.66	1513.19	32.03%	29.87%	38.10%	-0.07	-1.03	14
2023-06-11	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 5-0	48.5	1535.63	1502.55	33.33%	29.94%	36.73%	-0.04	+2.55	17
2023-06-18	Orlando Pride	W 3-0	39.5	1538.18	1447.93	53.58%	26.30%	20.12%	+0.44	+1.20	20
2023-06-25	Racing Louisville	W 1-0	47.9	1539.38	1478.57	49.74%	27.65%	22.61%	+0.34	+0.77	23
2023-07-02	Houston Dash	W 1-0	50.8	1540.15	1515.19	44.90%	28.93%	26.17%	+0.23	+0.88	26
2023-07-10	@ Angel City FC	L 1-2	58.8	1541.03	1466.51	39.24%	29.78%	30.98%	+0.10	-1.19	26
2023-08-21	@ Portland Thorns	L 1-2	58.1	1539.84	1567.62	25.87%	28.84%	45.29%	-0.24	-0.87	26
2023-08-27	Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	63.9	1538.97	1497.62	47.13%	28.40%	24.47%	+0.28	-0.14	27
2023-09-03	NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 3-3	71.8	1538.83	1435.22	55.28%	25.61%	19.11%	+0.48	-0.22	28
2023-09-18	@ Orlando Pride	L 1-2	58.6	1538.61	1450.04	41.23%	29.56%	29.21%	+0.14	-1.24	28
2023-10-02	@ Seattle Reign	T 1-1	64.8	1537.37	1534.80	29.35%	29.58%	41.07%	-0.14	+0.07	29
2023-10-08	San Diego Wave FC	T 0-0	59.7	1537.44	1521.46	43.66%	29.17%	27.17%	+0.20	-0.10	30
2023-10-15	@ Washington Spirit	W 1-0	51.5	1537.34	1476.70	37.26%	29.92%	32.82%	+0.05	+1.05	33
2023-03-26	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-4	39.6	1448.96	1564.51	18.25%	24.97%	56.78%	-0.52	-1.25	0
2023-04-02	Angel City FC	L 1-2	55.3	1447.71	1468.54	38.48%	29.85%	31.68%	+0.08	-1.18	0
2023-04-16	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-2	45.6	1446.53	1429.00	43.87%	29.13%	26.99%	+0.20	-1.83	0
2023-04-23	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-2	41.3	1444.70	1517.73	21.53%	27.12%	51.35%	-0.38	-1.05	0
2023-04-30	@ San Diego Wave FC	W 3-1	56.1	1443.65	1520.58	21.20%	26.94%	51.86%	-0.40	+2.08	3
2023-05-07	Racing Louisville	W 1-0	48.2	1445.73	1475.69	37.17%	29.92%	32.90%	+0.05	+1.05	6
2023-05-14	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 0-0	53.1	1446.78	1432.59	30.81%	29.77%	39.42%	-0.10	+0.05	7
2023-05-21	Washington Spirit	W 2-1	54.2	1446.83	1480.69	36.62%	29.95%	33.44%	+0.04	+1.07	10
2023-05-28	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	45.7	1447.90	1500.61	23.36%	27.98%	48.66%	-0.32	-0.80	10
2023-06-04	@ Houston Dash	L 0-2	41.5	1447.10	1514.35	22.03%	27.38%	50.59%	-0.36	-1.07	10
2023-06-12	Portland Thorns	W 3-1	56.8	1446.03	1570.31	25.19%	28.64%	46.18%	-0.26	+1.90	13
2023-06-18	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-3	39.5	1447.93	1538.18	20.12%	26.30%	53.58%	-0.44	-1.20	13
2023-06-25	Kansas City Current	L 1-2	54.9	1446.73	1511.99	32.20%	29.88%	37.92%	-0.07	-1.03	13
2023-07-02	@ Washington Spirit	W 3-0	45.8	1445.70	1480.68	25.11%	28.62%	46.27%	-0.26	+2.33	16
2023-07-08	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	53.0	1448.03	1538.76	28.95%	29.52%	41.53%	-0.15	+1.25	19
2023-08-21	Chicago Red Stars	W 5-0	44.9	1449.28	1500.13	34.18%	29.97%	35.85%	-0.02	+2.50	22
2023-08-26	San Diego Wave FC	L 1-2	55.3	1451.78	1518.79	31.96%	29.87%	38.17%	-0.07	-1.03	22
2023-09-04	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-1	45.8	1450.75	1535.31	20.57%	26.58%	52.85%	-0.42	-0.71	22
2023-09-18	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	58.6	1450.04	1538.61	29.21%	29.56%	41.23%	-0.14	+1.24	25
2023-10-03	@ Angel City FC	W 1-0	51.3	1451.28	1470.46	26.81%	29.09%	44.10%	-0.21	+1.30	28
2023-10-07	@ Racing Louisville	L 2-3	56.7	1452.58	1478.15	26.11%	28.91%	44.98%	-0.23	-0.88	28
2023-10-15	Houston Dash	W 1-0	51.1	1451.70	1513.07	32.72%	29.91%	37.36%	-0.05	+1.15	31
2023-03-26	Orlando Pride	W 4-0	39.6	1564.51	1448.96	56.78%	24.97%	18.25%	+0.52	+1.25	3
2023-04-01	@ Kansas City Current	W 4-1	53.6	1565.76	1521.05	34.97%	29.97%	35.06%	+0.00	+1.91	6
2023-04-15	Houston Dash	T 1-1	65.7	1567.67	1515.86	48.54%	28.01%	23.45%	+0.31	-0.15	7
2023-04-23	Racing Louisville	W 2-0	43.6	1567.52	1476.64	53.66%	26.27%	20.07%	+0.44	+0.97	10
2023-04-30	Angel City FC	T 3-3	74.1	1568.49	1468.12	54.87%	25.78%	19.35%	+0.47	-0.22	11
2023-05-07	@ North Carolina Courage	T 3-3	75.1	1568.27	1534.82	33.38%	29.94%	36.67%	-0.04	+0.02	12
2023-05-13	@ Houston Dash	L 1-2	60.7	1568.29	1513.59	36.41%	29.95%	33.64%	+0.03	-1.13	12
2023-05-21	Chicago Red Stars	W 4-0	43.5	1567.16	1502.14	50.30%	27.47%	22.23%	+0.36	+1.53	15
2023-05-27	@ San Diego Wave FC	T 1-1	65.3	1568.69	1520.86	35.42%	29.97%	34.61%	+0.01	-0.01	16
2023-06-04	@ Seattle Reign	W 2-0	52.0	1568.68	1538.43	32.94%	29.93%	37.13%	-0.05	+1.63	19
2023-06-12	@ Orlando Pride	L 1-3	56.8	1570.31	1446.03	46.18%	28.64%	25.19%	+0.26	-1.91	19
2023-06-19	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 3-2	63.7	1568.40	1500.00	38.37%	29.85%	31.78%	+0.08	+1.03	22
2023-06-24	Washington Spirit	W 4-2	53.4	1569.43	1481.67	53.26%	26.42%	20.32%	+0.43	+0.99	25
2023-07-02	Kansas City Current	L 0-1	58.3	1570.42	1513.02	49.29%	27.79%	22.92%	+0.33	-1.42	25
2023-07-09	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 1-2	60.7	1569.00	1434.56	47.55%	28.29%	24.16%	+0.29	-1.38	25
2023-08-21	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	58.1	1567.62	1539.84	45.29%	28.84%	25.87%	+0.24	+0.88	28
2023-08-27	@ Washington Spirit	T 1-1	64.0	1568.50	1478.60	41.41%	29.54%	29.05%	+0.15	-0.07	29
2023-09-03	@ Racing Louisville	L 1-2	60.8	1568.43	1478.95	41.35%	29.54%	29.10%	+0.14	-1.24	29
2023-09-17	Seattle Reign	W 2-0	48.0	1567.19	1536.02	45.75%	28.74%	25.51%	+0.25	+1.22	32
2023-10-01	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-2	54.1	1568.41	1519.50	48.15%	28.12%	23.72%	+0.30	-1.97	32
2023-10-07	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 1-0	44.7	1566.44	1435.57	58.67%	24.10%	17.23%	+0.57	+0.59	35
2023-10-15	@ Angel City FC	L 1-5	52.7	1567.03	1470.54	42.34%	29.40%	28.26%	+0.17	-2.53	35
2023-03-27	@ Houston Dash	T 0-0	57.4	1476.52	1514.77	24.78%	28.51%	46.72%	-0.27	+0.13	1
2023-04-01	Washington Spirit	T 2-2	66.2	1476.65	1476.34	41.47%	29.53%	29.00%	+0.15	-0.07	2
2023-04-16	@ Angel City FC	T 2-2	65.9	1476.58	1469.72	29.88%	29.66%	40.46%	-0.12	+0.06	3
2023-04-23	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-2	43.6	1476.64	1567.52	20.07%	26.27%	53.66%	-0.44	-0.98	3
2023-04-30	Seattle Reign	T 2-2	68.4	1475.66	1539.58	32.38%	29.89%	37.73%	-0.06	+0.03	4
2023-05-07	@ Orlando Pride	L 0-1	48.2	1475.69	1445.73	32.90%	29.92%	37.17%	-0.05	-1.05	4
2023-05-13	Chicago Red Stars	W 3-0	44.1	1474.64	1503.96	37.27%	29.92%	32.82%	+0.05	+1.82	7
2023-05-21	@ Kansas City Current	W 2-0	50.5	1476.46	1516.88	24.56%	28.43%	47.01%	-0.28	+1.93	10
2023-05-28	North Carolina Courage	L 1-2	57.3	1478.39	1535.60	33.29%	29.94%	36.77%	-0.04	-1.06	10
2023-06-04	@ Washington Spirit	T 1-1	60.6	1477.33	1479.48	28.78%	29.49%	41.73%	-0.15	+0.07	11
2023-06-10	San Diego Wave FC	T 0-0	57.3	1477.40	1521.84	35.10%	29.97%	34.93%	+0.00	+0.00	12
2023-06-18	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-0	40.7	1477.40	1434.59	47.33%	28.35%	24.32%	+0.28	+1.17	15
2023-06-25	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	47.9	1478.57	1539.38	22.61%	27.65%	49.74%	-0.34	-0.77	15
2023-07-01	@ Seattle Reign	T 2-2	69.1	1477.80	1538.92	22.58%	27.64%	49.78%	-0.34	+0.16	16
2023-07-08	Kansas City Current	W 2-1	56.7	1477.96	1514.44	36.24%	29.96%	33.80%	+0.03	+1.08	19
2023-08-20	Angel City FC	T 1-1	60.3	1479.04	1467.70	43.01%	29.29%	27.70%	+0.18	-0.09	20
2023-08-27	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 0-0	54.2	1478.95	1435.23	34.83%	29.97%	35.20%	+0.00	+0.00	21
2023-09-03	Portland Thorns	W 2-1	60.8	1478.95	1568.43	29.10%	29.54%	41.35%	-0.14	+1.24	24
2023-09-16	Houston Dash	L 0-1	51.9	1480.19	1511.89	36.92%	29.93%	33.14%	+0.04	-1.14	24
2023-10-01	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	48.1	1479.05	1499.31	26.69%	29.06%	44.25%	-0.21	-0.90	24
2023-10-07	Orlando Pride	W 3-2	56.7	1478.15	1452.58	44.98%	28.91%	26.11%	+0.23	+0.88	27
2023-10-15	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 0-2	43.9	1479.03	1521.56	24.35%	28.36%	47.29%	-0.28	-1.17	27
2023-03-26	Chicago Red Stars	W 3-2	60.8	1517.58	1507.76	42.80%	29.32%	27.87%	+0.18	+0.93	3
2023-04-02	North Carolina Courage	W 3-1	54.2	1518.51	1537.78	38.70%	29.83%	31.47%	+0.08	+1.44	6
2023-04-16	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-1	51.1	1519.95	1537.18	27.03%	29.14%	43.83%	-0.20	-0.90	6
2023-04-24	@ Angel City FC	W 2-0	47.0	1519.05	1469.66	35.64%	29.97%	34.39%	+0.01	+1.53	9
2023-04-30	Orlando Pride	L 1-3	56.1	1520.58	1443.65	51.86%	26.94%	21.20%	+0.40	-2.08	9
2023-05-06	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-3	52.9	1518.50	1477.94	34.38%	29.97%	35.65%	-0.01	-1.53	9
2023-05-15	@ Kansas City Current	W 2-0	50.8	1516.97	1518.65	28.83%	29.50%	41.66%	-0.15	+1.76	12
2023-05-21	@ Houston Dash	W 3-0	48.4	1518.73	1514.72	29.53%	29.61%	40.86%	-0.13	+2.13	15
2023-05-27	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	65.3	1520.86	1568.69	34.61%	29.97%	35.42%	-0.01	+0.00	16
2023-06-05	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 1-0	48.3	1520.86	1435.37	40.79%	29.62%	29.59%	+0.13	+0.98	19
2023-06-10	@ Racing Louisville	T 0-0	57.3	1521.84	1477.40	34.93%	29.97%	35.10%	+0.00	+0.00	20
2023-06-17	Angel City FC	L 1-2	60.4	1521.84	1465.07	49.21%	27.82%	22.98%	+0.33	-1.42	20
2023-06-25	Seattle Reign	L 1-2	60.6	1520.42	1537.74	38.98%	29.81%	31.22%	+0.09	-1.18	20
2023-07-02	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	51.3	1519.24	1497.81	31.76%	29.85%	38.39%	-0.08	-1.03	20
2023-07-09	Washington Spirit	T 2-2	68.1	1518.21	1478.34	46.94%	28.45%	24.61%	+0.27	-0.13	21
2023-08-20	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-1	50.3	1518.08	1435.94	52.53%	26.70%	20.77%	+0.41	+0.71	24
2023-08-26	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-1	55.3	1518.79	1451.78	38.17%	29.87%	31.96%	+0.07	+1.03	27
2023-09-04	Houston Dash	W 1-0	50.7	1519.82	1512.83	42.41%	29.39%	28.20%	+0.17	+0.94	30
2023-09-17	Kansas City Current	L 1-2	60.6	1520.76	1513.09	42.50%	29.37%	28.12%	+0.17	-1.26	30
2023-10-01	@ Portland Thorns	W 2-0	54.1	1519.50	1568.41	23.72%	28.12%	48.15%	-0.30	+1.96	33
2023-10-08	@ North Carolina Courage	T 0-0	59.7	1521.46	1537.44	27.17%	29.17%	43.66%	-0.20	+0.10	34
2023-10-15	Racing Louisville	W 2-0	43.9	1521.56	1479.03	47.29%	28.36%	24.35%	+0.28	+1.17	37
2023-03-26	@ Washington Spirit	L 0-1	52.8	1537.05	1475.19	37.43%	29.91%	32.66%	+0.05	-1.16	0
2023-04-02	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-0	43.7	1535.89	1430.29	43.61%	29.18%	27.21%	+0.20	+1.29	3
2023-04-16	San Diego Wave FC	W 1-0	51.1	1537.18	1519.95	43.83%	29.14%	27.03%	+0.20	+0.91	6
2023-04-22	Chicago Red Stars	W 5-2	51.4	1538.09	1507.03	45.74%	28.74%	25.52%	+0.25	+1.49	9
2023-04-30	@ Racing Louisville	T 2-2	68.4	1539.58	1475.66	37.73%	29.89%	32.38%	+0.06	-0.03	10
2023-05-07	Houston Dash	W 2-0	46.6	1539.55	1514.83	44.87%	28.93%	26.20%	+0.23	+1.25	13
2023-05-14	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	52.8	1540.80	1534.80	29.77%	29.64%	40.58%	-0.13	-0.98	13
2023-05-22	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 1-4	54.3	1539.82	1432.54	55.74%	25.42%	18.84%	+0.49	-2.69	13
2023-05-27	Angel City FC	W 4-1	45.9	1537.13	1468.42	50.78%	27.31%	21.90%	+0.37	+1.30	16
2023-06-04	Portland Thorns	L 0-2	52.0	1538.43	1568.68	37.13%	29.93%	32.94%	+0.05	-1.62	16
2023-06-11	Kansas City Current	W 2-1	56.3	1536.81	1514.22	44.57%	28.99%	26.43%	+0.22	+0.89	19
2023-06-18	@ Houston Dash	T 0-0	59.3	1537.70	1515.23	31.89%	29.86%	38.24%	-0.07	+0.04	20
2023-06-25	@ San Diego Wave FC	W 2-1	60.6	1537.74	1520.42	31.22%	29.81%	38.98%	-0.09	+1.18	23
2023-07-01	Racing Louisville	T 2-2	69.1	1538.92	1477.80	49.78%	27.64%	22.58%	+0.34	-0.16	24
2023-07-08	@ Orlando Pride	L 0-1	53.0	1538.76	1448.03	41.53%	29.52%	28.95%	+0.15	-1.24	24
2023-08-19	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-1	52.7	1537.52	1513.37	32.12%	29.88%	38.00%	-0.07	-1.04	24
2023-08-28	@ Angel City FC	L 1-2	58.5	1536.48	1467.79	38.41%	29.85%	31.74%	+0.08	-1.17	24
2023-09-04	Orlando Pride	W 1-0	45.8	1535.31	1450.75	52.85%	26.58%	20.57%	+0.42	+0.71	27
2023-09-17	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-2	48.0	1536.02	1567.19	25.51%	28.74%	45.75%	-0.25	-1.22	27
2023-10-02	North Carolina Courage	T 1-1	64.8	1534.80	1537.37	41.07%	29.58%	29.35%	+0.14	-0.07	28
2023-10-07	Washington Spirit	T 0-0	58.4	1534.73	1476.54	49.39%	27.76%	22.85%	+0.33	-0.16	29
2023-10-15	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 3-0	47.2	1534.57	1498.62	33.73%	29.96%	36.31%	-0.03	+1.96	32
2023-03-26	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	52.8	1475.19	1537.05	32.66%	29.91%	37.43%	-0.05	+1.15	3
2023-04-01	@ Racing Louisville	T 2-2	66.2	1476.34	1476.65	29.00%	29.53%	41.47%	-0.15	+0.07	4
2023-04-16	@ North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	61.5	1476.41	1536.34	22.69%	27.69%	49.62%	-0.34	+1.43	7
2023-04-23	Houston Dash	T 0-0	57.1	1477.84	1516.01	36.00%	29.96%	34.04%	+0.02	-0.01	8
2023-04-30	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	61.8	1477.83	1505.53	25.88%	28.84%	45.28%	-0.24	+0.11	9
2023-05-06	San Diego Wave FC	W 3-1	52.9	1477.94	1518.50	35.65%	29.97%	34.38%	+0.01	+1.53	12
2023-05-14	@ Angel City FC	W 1-0	51.2	1479.47	1469.46	30.28%	29.71%	40.01%	-0.11	+1.22	15
2023-05-21	@ Orlando Pride	L 1-2	54.2	1480.69	1446.83	33.44%	29.95%	36.62%	-0.04	-1.07	15
2023-05-28	NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 1-1	59.5	1479.62	1435.23	47.55%	28.29%	24.16%	+0.29	-0.14	16
2023-06-04	Racing Louisville	T 1-1	60.6	1479.48	1477.33	41.73%	29.49%	28.78%	+0.15	-0.07	17
2023-06-11	Angel City FC	W 2-1	52.8	1479.41	1465.98	43.30%	29.24%	27.46%	+0.19	+0.91	20
2023-06-19	@ Kansas City Current	W 3-2	64.9	1480.32	1513.33	25.32%	28.68%	46.00%	-0.25	+1.35	23
2023-06-24	@ Portland Thorns	L 2-4	53.4	1481.67	1569.43	20.32%	26.42%	53.26%	-0.43	-0.99	23
2023-07-02	Orlando Pride	L 0-3	45.8	1480.68	1445.70	46.27%	28.62%	25.11%	+0.26	-2.34	23
2023-07-09	@ San Diego Wave FC	T 2-2	68.1	1478.34	1518.21	24.61%	28.45%	46.94%	-0.27	+0.13	24
2023-08-20	@ Houston Dash	T 1-1	62.2	1478.47	1513.02	25.16%	28.63%	46.21%	-0.26	+0.13	25
2023-08-27	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	64.0	1478.60	1568.50	29.05%	29.54%	41.41%	-0.15	+0.07	26
2023-09-03	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-2	47.8	1478.67	1497.76	38.73%	29.83%	31.45%	+0.08	-1.67	26
2023-09-17	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-2	44.3	1477.00	1435.45	34.52%	29.97%	35.51%	-0.01	-1.54	26
2023-10-01	Kansas City Current	W 2-1	56.7	1475.46	1514.35	35.89%	29.96%	34.14%	+0.02	+1.08	29
2023-10-07	@ Seattle Reign	T 0-0	58.4	1476.54	1534.73	22.85%	27.76%	49.39%	-0.33	+0.16	30
2023-10-15	North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	51.5	1476.70	1537.34	32.82%	29.92%	37.26%	-0.05	-1.05	30

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2023-10-21	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-1	43.0	1473.06	1536.53	34.88%	0.00%	65.12%	-0.35	-0.77	0-1
2023-10-23	@ North Carolina Courage	W 2-0	48.1	1435.04	1538.39	29.86%	0.00%	70.14%	-0.48	+2.18	1-0
2023-11-06	@ Portland Thorns	W 1-0	54.1	1437.22	1564.50	27.06%	0.00%	72.94%	-0.56	+1.61	2-0
2023-11-12	Seattle Reign	W 2-1	54.3	1438.83	1538.49	42.20%	0.00%	57.80%	-0.18	+1.27	3-0
2023-10-23	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-2	48.1	1538.39	1435.04	70.14%	0.00%	29.86%	+0.48	-2.18	0-1
2023-11-06	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-1	54.1	1564.50	1437.22	72.94%	0.00%	27.06%	+0.56	-1.60	0-1
2023-11-06	Seattle Reign	L 0-1	50.7	1522.73	1537.29	54.37%	0.00%	45.63%	+0.10	-1.20	0-1
2023-10-21	Angel City FC	W 1-0	43.0	1536.53	1473.06	65.12%	0.00%	34.88%	+0.35	+0.76	1-0
2023-11-06	@ San Diego Wave FC	W 1-0	50.7	1537.29	1522.73	45.63%	0.00%	54.37%	-0.10	+1.20	2-0
2023-11-12	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 1-2	54.3	1538.49	1438.83	57.80%	0.00%	42.20%	+0.18	-1.27	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-05-22	18.84%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1432.54	4	@ Seattle Reign	1539.82	1
2	2023-04-30	21.20%	Orlando Pride	1443.65	3	@ San Diego Wave FC	1520.58	1
3	2023-05-08	21.42%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1431.13	2	@ Chicago Red Stars	1505.42	1
4	2023-04-16	22.69%	Washington Spirit	1476.41	2	@ North Carolina Courage	1536.34	1
5	2023-07-02	22.92%	Kansas City Current	1513.02	1	@ Portland Thorns	1570.42	0
6	2023-06-17	22.98%	Angel City FC	1465.07	2	@ San Diego Wave FC	1521.84	1
7	2023-10-01	23.72%	San Diego Wave FC	1519.50	2	@ Portland Thorns	1568.41	0
8	2023-09-02	24.05%	Angel City FC	1468.96	1	@ Kansas City Current	1514.47	0
9	2023-10-09	24.08%	Angel City FC	1469.16	2	@ Houston Dash	1514.45	1
10	2023-07-09	24.16%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	1434.56	2	Portland Thorns	1569.00	1
11	2023-03-27	24.50%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1428.92	2	@ Angel City FC	1469.91	1
12	2023-05-21	24.56%	Racing Louisville	1476.46	2	@ Kansas City Current	1516.88	0
13	2023-07-02	25.11%	Orlando Pride	1445.70	3	@ Washington Spirit	1480.68	0
14	2023-06-12	25.19%	@ Orlando Pride	1446.03	3	Portland Thorns	1570.31	1
15	2023-06-19	25.32%	Washington Spirit	1480.32	3	@ Kansas City Current	1513.33	2
16	2023-10-03	26.81%	Orlando Pride	1451.28	1	@ Angel City FC	1470.46	0
17	2023-04-16	26.99%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1429.00	2	@ Orlando Pride	1446.53	0
18	2023-11-06 *	27.06%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1437.22	1	@ Portland Thorns	1564.50	0
19	2023-07-08	27.22%	Chicago Red Stars	1498.84	1	@ Houston Dash	1514.31	0
20	2023-04-23	27.38%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	1430.83	1	North Carolina Courage	1534.92	0
21	2023-09-17	28.12%	Kansas City Current	1513.09	2	@ San Diego Wave FC	1520.76	1
22	2023-10-15	28.26%	@ Angel City FC	1470.54	5	Portland Thorns	1567.03	1
23	2023-05-27	28.75%	Houston Dash	1512.59	2	@ Kansas City Current	1514.95	0
24	2023-05-15	28.83%	San Diego Wave FC	1516.97	2	@ Kansas City Current	1518.65	0
25	2023-07-08	28.95%	@ Orlando Pride	1448.03	1	Seattle Reign	1538.76	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-05-22	2.69	NY/NJ Gotham FC	4	1432.54	18.84%	@ Seattle Reign	1	1539.82	55.74%	25.42%
2	2023-06-11	2.55	North Carolina Courage	5	1535.63	33.33%	@ Chicago Red Stars	0	1502.55	36.73%	29.94%
3	2023-10-15	2.53	@ Angel City FC	5	1470.54	28.26%	Portland Thorns	1	1567.03	42.34%	29.40%
4	2023-08-21	2.51	@ Orlando Pride	5	1449.28	34.18%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1500.13	35.85%	29.97%
5	2023-07-02	2.34	Orlando Pride	3	1445.70	25.11%	@ Washington Spirit	0	1480.68	46.27%	28.62%
6	2023-10-23 *	2.18	NY/NJ Gotham FC	2	1435.04	29.86%	@ North Carolina Courage	0	1538.39	70.14%	0.00%
7	2023-05-21	2.13	San Diego Wave FC	3	1518.73	29.53%	@ Houston Dash	0	1514.72	40.86%	29.61%
8	2023-04-30	2.08	Orlando Pride	3	1443.65	21.20%	@ San Diego Wave FC	1	1520.58	51.86%	26.94%
9	2023-10-01	1.97	San Diego Wave FC	2	1519.50	23.72%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1568.41	48.15%	28.12%
10	2023-10-15	1.96	Seattle Reign	3	1534.57	33.73%	@ Chicago Red Stars	0	1498.62	36.31%	29.96%
11	2023-05-21	1.93	Racing Louisville	2	1476.46	24.56%	@ Kansas City Current	0	1516.88	47.01%	28.43%
12	2023-04-01	1.91	Portland Thorns	4	1565.76	34.97%	@ Kansas City Current	1	1521.05	35.06%	29.97%
13	2023-06-12	1.91	@ Orlando Pride	3	1446.03	25.19%	Portland Thorns	1	1570.31	46.18%	28.64%
14	2023-04-16	1.83	NY/NJ Gotham FC	2	1429.00	26.99%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1446.53	43.87%	29.13%
15	2023-05-13	1.82	@ Racing Louisville	3	1474.64	37.27%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1503.96	32.82%	29.92%
16	2023-05-15	1.77	San Diego Wave FC	2	1516.97	28.83%	@ Kansas City Current	0	1518.65	41.66%	29.50%
17	2023-05-27	1.76	Houston Dash	2	1512.59	28.75%	@ Kansas City Current	0	1514.95	41.76%	29.49%
18	2023-09-03	1.67	Chicago Red Stars	2	1497.76	31.45%	@ Washington Spirit	0	1478.67	38.73%	29.83%
19	2023-06-04	1.63	Portland Thorns	2	1568.68	32.94%	@ Seattle Reign	0	1538.43	37.13%	29.93%
20	2023-11-06 *	1.61	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1	1437.22	27.06%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1564.50	72.94%	0.00%
21	2023-10-08	1.59	@ Kansas City Current	6	1513.27	43.25%	Chicago Red Stars	3	1500.21	27.50%	29.25%
22	2023-04-24	1.54	San Diego Wave FC	2	1519.05	35.64%	@ Angel City FC	0	1469.66	34.39%	29.97%
23	2023-09-17	1.54	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	2	1435.45	35.51%	Washington Spirit	0	1477.00	34.52%	29.97%
24	2023-05-21	1.53	@ Portland Thorns	4	1567.16	50.30%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1502.14	22.23%	27.47%
25	2023-05-06	1.53	@ Washington Spirit	3	1477.94	35.65%	San Diego Wave FC	1	1518.50	34.38%	29.97%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season's games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-05-07	75.1	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1534.82	36.67%	Portland Thorns	3	1568.27	33.38%	29.94%
2	2023-04-30	74.1	@ Portland Thorns	3	1568.49	54.87%	Angel City FC	3	1468.12	19.35%	25.78%
3	2023-09-03	71.8	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1538.83	55.28%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	3	1435.22	19.11%	25.61%
4	2023-07-01	69.1	@ Seattle Reign	2	1538.92	49.78%	Racing Louisville	2	1477.80	22.58%	27.64%
5	2023-04-30	68.4	@ Racing Louisville	2	1475.66	32.38%	Seattle Reign	2	1539.58	37.73%	29.89%
6	2023-07-09	68.1	@ San Diego Wave FC	2	1518.21	46.94%	Washington Spirit	2	1478.34	24.61%	28.45%
7	2023-09-18	67.0	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1499.43	45.47%	Angel City FC	2	1470.34	25.73%	28.80%
8	2023-04-01	66.2	@ Racing Louisville	2	1476.65	41.47%	Washington Spirit	2	1476.34	29.00%	29.53%
9	2023-10-15	66.0	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	2	1434.98	30.29%	Kansas City Current	2	1514.86	40.00%	29.71%
10	2023-04-16	65.9	@ Angel City FC	2	1469.72	40.46%	Racing Louisville	2	1476.58	29.88%	29.66%
11	2023-04-15	65.7	@ Portland Thorns	1	1567.67	48.54%	Houston Dash	1	1515.86	23.45%	28.01%
12	2023-05-27	65.3	@ San Diego Wave FC	1	1520.86	34.61%	Portland Thorns	1	1568.69	35.42%	29.97%
13	2023-06-19	64.9	Washington Spirit	3	1480.32	25.32%	@ Kansas City Current	2	1513.33	46.00%	28.68%
14	2023-10-02	64.8	@ Seattle Reign	1	1534.80	41.07%	North Carolina Courage	1	1537.37	29.35%	29.58%
15	2023-08-27	64.0	@ Washington Spirit	1	1478.60	29.05%	Portland Thorns	1	1568.50	41.41%	29.54%
16	2023-08-27	63.9	@ North Carolina Courage	1	1538.97	47.13%	Chicago Red Stars	1	1497.62	24.47%	28.40%
17	2023-06-19	63.7	Portland Thorns	3	1568.40	38.37%	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1500.00	31.78%	29.85%
18	2023-08-27	63.2	@ Houston Dash	1	1512.90	41.22%	Kansas City Current	1	1514.40	29.22%	29.56%
19	2023-08-20	62.2	@ Houston Dash	1	1513.02	46.21%	Washington Spirit	1	1478.47	25.16%	28.63%
20	2023-05-08	62.1	@ Angel City FC	3	1468.34	34.10%	Kansas City Current	2	1519.77	35.94%	29.96%
21	2023-04-30	61.8	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1505.53	45.28%	Washington Spirit	1	1477.83	25.88%	28.84%
22	2023-04-16	61.5	Washington Spirit	2	1476.41	22.69%	@ North Carolina Courage	1	1536.34	49.62%	27.69%
23	2023-06-12	61.2	@ Houston Dash	1	1515.42	52.39%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1	1434.40	20.86%	26.75%
24	2023-03-26	60.8	@ San Diego Wave FC	3	1517.58	42.80%	Chicago Red Stars	2	1507.76	27.87%	29.32%
25	2023-09-03	60.8	@ Racing Louisville	2	1478.95	29.10%	Portland Thorns	1	1568.43	41.35%	29.54%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-06-18	39.5	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1538.18	53.58%	Orlando Pride	0	1447.93	20.12%	26.30%
2	2023-03-26	39.6	@ Portland Thorns	4	1564.51	56.78%	Orlando Pride	0	1448.96	18.25%	24.97%
3	2023-05-01	40.3	@ Kansas City Current	2	1518.78	53.12%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1432.12	20.41%	26.48%
4	2023-06-18	40.7	@ Racing Louisville	2	1477.40	47.33%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1434.59	24.32%	28.35%
5	2023-04-23	41.3	@ Kansas City Current	2	1517.73	51.35%	Orlando Pride	0	1444.70	21.53%	27.12%
6	2023-06-04	41.5	@ Houston Dash	2	1514.35	50.59%	Orlando Pride	0	1447.10	22.03%	27.38%
7	2023-10-21 *	43.0	@ Seattle Reign	1	1536.53	65.12%	Angel City FC	0	1473.06	34.88%	0.00%
8	2023-05-21	43.5	@ Portland Thorns	4	1567.16	50.30%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1502.14	22.23%	27.47%
9	2023-04-23	43.6	@ Portland Thorns	2	1567.52	53.66%	Racing Louisville	0	1476.64	20.07%	26.27%
10	2023-04-02	43.7	Seattle Reign	2	1535.89	43.61%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1430.29	27.21%	29.18%
11	2023-10-15	43.9	@ San Diego Wave FC	2	1521.56	47.29%	Racing Louisville	0	1479.03	24.35%	28.36%
12	2023-05-13	44.1	@ Racing Louisville	3	1474.64	37.27%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1503.96	32.82%	29.92%
13	2023-09-17	44.3	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	2	1435.45	35.51%	Washington Spirit	0	1477.00	34.52%	29.97%
14	2023-10-02	44.4	Houston Dash	2	1513.03	39.46%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1436.99	30.78%	29.76%
15	2023-10-07	44.7	@ Portland Thorns	1	1566.44	58.67%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1435.57	17.23%	24.10%
16	2023-08-21	44.9	@ Orlando Pride	5	1449.28	34.18%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1500.13	35.85%	29.97%
17	2023-04-16	45.6	NY/NJ Gotham FC	2	1429.00	26.99%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1446.53	43.87%	29.13%
18	2023-05-28	45.7	@ Chicago Red Stars	1	1500.61	48.66%	Orlando Pride	0	1447.90	23.36%	27.98%
19	2023-07-02	45.8	Orlando Pride	3	1445.70	25.11%	@ Washington Spirit	0	1480.68	46.27%	28.62%
20	2023-09-04	45.8	@ Seattle Reign	1	1535.31	52.85%	Orlando Pride	0	1450.75	20.57%	26.58%
21	2023-05-27	45.9	@ Seattle Reign	4	1537.13	50.78%	Angel City FC	1	1468.42	21.90%	27.31%
22	2023-05-07	46.6	@ Seattle Reign	2	1539.55	44.87%	Houston Dash	0	1514.83	26.20%	28.93%
23	2023-04-24	47.0	San Diego Wave FC	2	1519.05	35.64%	@ Angel City FC	0	1469.66	34.39%	29.97%
24	2023-10-15	47.2	Seattle Reign	3	1534.57	33.73%	@ Chicago Red Stars	0	1498.62	36.31%	29.96%
25	2023-09-03	47.8	Chicago Red Stars	2	1497.76	31.45%	@ Washington Spirit	0	1478.67	38.73%	29.83%