2022 NWSL Season

132 regular-season games · 6 playoff teams

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

Portland Thorns

24.61% chance to win NWSL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

Kansas City Current

8.17 points above expected

36 points · 27.83 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

NY/NJ Gotham FC

9.62 points below expected

13 points · 22.62 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Seattle Reign Conference	11	4	7	40	.606	32	19	+13	33.92	+6.08
2	Portland Thorns Playoffs	10	3	9	39	.591	49	24	+25	37.92	+1.08
3	Kansas City Current Playoffs	10	6	6	36	.545	29	29	0	27.83	+8.17
4	San Diego Wave FC Playoffs	10	6	6	36	.545	32	21	+11	28.44	+7.56
5	Houston Dash Playoffs	10	6	6	36	.545	35	27	+8	34.83	+1.17
6	Chicago Red Stars Playoffs	9	7	6	33	.500	34	28	+6	33.42	-0.42
7	North Carolina Courage	9	8	5	32	.485	46	33	+13	31.09	+0.91
8	Angel City FC	8	9	5	29	.439	23	27	-4	23.60	+5.40
9	Racing Louisville	5	9	8	23	.348	23	35	-12	23.27	-0.27
10	Orlando Pride	5	10	7	22	.333	22	45	-23	23.25	-1.25
11	Washington Spirit	3	9	10	19	.288	26	33	-7	27.97	-8.97
12	NY/NJ Gotham FC	4	17	1	13	.197	16	46	-30	22.62	-9.62

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Kansas City Current	36	27.83	+8.17
2	San Diego Wave FC	36	28.44	+7.56
3	Seattle Reign	40	33.92	+6.08
4	Angel City FC	29	23.60	+5.40
5	Houston Dash	36	34.83	+1.17

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	NY/NJ Gotham FC	13	22.62	-9.62
2	Washington Spirit	19	27.97	-8.97
3	Orlando Pride	22	23.25	-1.25
4	Chicago Red Stars	33	33.42	-0.42
5	Racing Louisville	23	23.27	-0.27

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Diego Wave FC	3	May 2 – May 15	1 in 163
2	Kansas City Current	3	Jul 2 – Jul 18	1 in 86
3	Houston Dash	3	Jul 17 – Aug 8	1 in 35
4	Seattle Reign	4	Sep 18 – Oct 2	1 in 27
5	Angel City FC	2	May 15 – May 22	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	NY/NJ Gotham FC	12	Jul 17 – Sep 25	1 in 2,403
2	North Carolina Courage	3	Apr 30 – May 22	1 in 108
3	Racing Louisville	3	May 30 – Jun 12	1 in 70
4	Orlando Pride	4	Aug 27 – Sep 22	1 in 43
5	Houston Dash	2	Jul 2 – Jul 9	1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Current	13	May 30 – Sep 12	1 in 227
2	Orlando Pride	7	Jul 4 – Aug 21	1 in 27
3	Portland Thorns	11	May 29 – Aug 11	1 in 12
4	Angel City FC	5	Aug 8 – Sep 12	1 in 10
5	Chicago Red Stars	9	May 23 – Jul 11	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Spirit	16	May 15 – Aug 28	1 in 354
2	Racing Louisville	13	May 30 – Sep 11	1 in 44
3	NY/NJ Gotham FC	13	Jul 17 – Oct 2	1 in 8
4	North Carolina Courage	6	Jun 19 – Aug 14	1 in 6
5	Houston Dash	3	Aug 21 – Sep 12	1 in 6

Playoff Bracket

WNBA Playoffs

First Round

Kansas City Current 2

Houston Dash 1

Oct 16

San Diego Wave FC 2

Chicago Red Stars 1

Oct 17

Second Round

Portland Thorns 2

San Diego Wave FC 1

Oct 23

Kansas City Current 2

Seattle Reign 0

Oct 24

Semifinals

Portland Thorns 1

Kansas City Current 0

1 games · Oct 30–Oct 30

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FC	Stars	Dash	Current	FC	Courage	Pride	Thorns	Louisville	FC	Reign	Spirit
Angel City FC	—	3 (1.9 exp.)	2 (1.8 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)	1 (1.6 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	0 (1.9 exp.)	6 (2.0 exp.)
Chicago Red Stars	3 (3.4 exp.)	—	0 (3.0 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)	1 (3.2 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	6 (3.2 exp.)	0 (3.1 exp.)	4 (2.4 exp.)	2 (3.0 exp.)
Houston Dash	2 (3.5 exp.)	6 (2.2 exp.)	—	3 (3.3 exp.)	6 (3.7 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	3 (3.5 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	2 (3.5 exp.)	0 (3.5 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	4 (3.5 exp.)
Kansas City Current	1 (2.9 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	—	6 (3.0 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)	2 (2.8 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	3 (1.9 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)
NY/NJ Gotham FC	3 (2.4 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	—	0 (1.2 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	1 (1.2 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	0 (3.2 exp.)	0 (1.4 exp.)	3 (2.1 exp.)
North Carolina Courage	3 (3.5 exp.)	4 (2.0 exp.)	1 (2.3 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	6 (4.2 exp.)	—	3 (3.4 exp.)	4 (1.7 exp.)	6 (3.2 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)
Orlando Pride	4 (2.6 exp.)	0 (2.0 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	2 (2.4 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (1.8 exp.)	—	0 (1.6 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	4 (1.8 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	2 (2.2 exp.)
Portland Thorns	4 (3.7 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)	4 (4.3 exp.)	1 (3.7 exp.)	6 (3.7 exp.)	—	6 (4.1 exp.)	1 (3.3 exp.)	2 (3.0 exp.)	4 (3.5 exp.)
Racing Louisville	3 (2.4 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	2 (1.8 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	4 (2.5 exp.)	0 (1.3 exp.)	—	4 (2.1 exp.)	2 (1.8 exp.)	2 (2.2 exp.)
San Diego Wave FC	3 (3.3 exp.)	6 (2.1 exp.)	6 (1.8 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	6 (2.0 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	1 (3.5 exp.)	4 (2.0 exp.)	1 (3.1 exp.)	—	1 (2.3 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)
Seattle Reign	6 (3.4 exp.)	1 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	6 (4.0 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)	6 (3.8 exp.)	2 (2.2 exp.)	2 (3.4 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	—	1 (2.6 exp.)
Washington Spirit	0 (3.3 exp.)	2 (2.3 exp.)	1 (1.8 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	2 (3.0 exp.)	1 (1.8 exp.)	2 (3.1 exp.)	3 (2.1 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.06%	10.98%	3.79%	4.55%	1.89%	1.14%	28.41%
1	10.98%	8.33%	7.20%	1.52%	0.76%	0.38%	29.17%
2	3.79%	7.20%	12.12%	1.52%	0.76%	—	25.38%
3	4.55%	1.52%	1.52%	2.27%	1.14%	—	10.98%
4	1.89%	0.76%	0.76%	1.14%	—	—	4.55%
5+	1.14%	0.38%	—	—	—	—	1.52%
Total	28.41%	29.17%	25.38%	10.98%	4.55%	1.52%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.39	+0.00
SD	1.23	1.23	1.80
CV	0.89	0.89	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
1	13.64%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	54.55%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Angel City FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.23	-0.18
SD	1.00	0.92	1.26
CV	0.96	0.75	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	4.55%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	22.73%	27.27%	4.55%	9.09%	—	100%

Chicago Red Stars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.27	+0.27
SD	1.34	1.28	2.10
CV	0.86	1.01	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	40.91%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Houston Dash — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.23	+0.36
SD	1.50	1.11	1.89
CV	0.94	0.90	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	22.73%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	31.82%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Kansas City Current — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.32	+0.00
SD	1.13	1.13	1.54
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.73%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	54.55%
1	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	27.27%	18.18%	22.73%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

NY/NJ Gotham FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.73	2.09	-1.36
SD	0.98	1.44	1.84
CV	1.35	0.69	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
3	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	40.91%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	18.18%	27.27%	13.64%	9.09%	—	100%

North Carolina Courage — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	1.50	+0.59
SD	1.38	1.34	1.82
CV	0.66	0.89	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	9.09%	40.91%
1	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	—	9.09%	27.27%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	13.64%	40.91%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Orlando Pride — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.05	-1.05
SD	0.93	1.56	1.99
CV	0.93	0.76	—
Max	2	6	+1
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	18.18%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	40.91%	22.73%	22.73%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Portland Thorns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.23	1.09	+1.14
SD	1.54	1.11	2.21
CV	0.69	1.02	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	45.45%
2	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	22.73%	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Racing Louisville — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.59	-0.55
SD	0.84	1.40	1.68
CV	0.81	0.88	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
1	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.91%	31.82%	22.73%	—	4.55%	—	100%

San Diego Wave FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	0.95	+0.50
SD	1.14	1.05	1.37
CV	0.79	1.10	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.91%	31.82%	27.27%	—	—	—	100%

Seattle Reign — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	0.86	+0.59
SD	1.06	0.83	1.18
CV	0.73	0.97	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	—	13.64%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	31.82%	31.82%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Washington Spirit — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.50	-0.32
SD	1.10	1.01	0.99
CV	0.93	0.67	—
Max	4	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.53	+6.5
Allowed	0.76	-8.9
Differential	0.81	+4.9

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Seattle Reign	1634	40	33.92	+6.08	87.68%	13	25	30	34	38	43	58
Portland Thorns	1632	39	37.92	+1.08	60.82%	14	29	34	38	42	47	60
North Carolina Courage	1590	32	31.09	+0.91	60.27%	7	22	27	31	35	40	55
Houston Dash	1561	36	34.83	+1.17	61.52%	12	26	31	35	39	44	61
San Diego Wave FC	1542	36	28.44	+7.56	92.70%	8	20	25	28	32	38	56
Chicago Red Stars	1538	33	33.42	-0.42	50.72%	11	24	30	33	37	43	56
Kansas City Current	1534	36	27.83	+8.17	94.13%	7	19	24	28	31	37	52
Racing Louisville	1440	23	23.27	-0.27	52.77%	5	15	20	23	27	32	48
Washington Spirit	1428	19	27.97	-8.97	5.85%	9	19	24	28	32	37	49
Angel City FC	1423	29	23.60	+5.40	86.47%	4	15	20	23	27	32	47
Orlando Pride	1376	22	23.25	-1.25	45.47%	4	15	20	23	27	32	49
NY/NJ Gotham FC	1301	13	22.62	-9.62	3.21%	5	14	19	22	26	31	46

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Portland Thorns	38.57%	21.89%	13.92%	9.46%	6.25%	3.94%	2.71%	1.59%	0.88%	0.47%	0.22%	0.08%
Houston Dash	18.86%	19.12%	16.16%	13.04%	10.18%	7.66%	5.66%	3.98%	2.59%	1.54%	0.82%	0.36%
Seattle Reign	14.91%	16.69%	15.93%	13.71%	11.42%	8.94%	6.53%	4.86%	3.25%	2.08%	1.19%	0.48%
Chicago Red Stars	13.10%	15.64%	15.45%	13.95%	11.71%	9.44%	7.14%	5.28%	3.69%	2.53%	1.42%	0.66%
North Carolina Courage	6.31%	9.75%	11.99%	12.95%	13.04%	11.96%	10.28%	8.22%	6.46%	4.62%	2.94%	1.47%
San Diego Wave FC	2.74%	5.03%	7.18%	9.50%	10.77%	11.89%	11.88%	11.64%	10.16%	8.49%	6.53%	4.18%
Washington Spirit	2.25%	4.36%	6.64%	8.61%	10.25%	11.54%	12.12%	11.87%	10.71%	9.36%	7.32%	5.00%
Kansas City Current	2.12%	4.26%	6.39%	8.29%	10.29%	11.32%	12.20%	11.86%	10.98%	9.43%	7.64%	5.24%
Angel City FC	0.35%	0.97%	1.78%	3.04%	4.51%	6.43%	8.24%	10.61%	13.17%	15.30%	17.23%	18.37%
Racing Louisville	0.31%	0.84%	1.66%	2.71%	4.18%	5.85%	8.09%	10.09%	12.91%	15.27%	17.72%	20.35%
Orlando Pride	0.27%	0.88%	1.69%	2.64%	4.06%	5.90%	7.92%	10.41%	12.75%	15.32%	17.88%	20.28%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	0.20%	0.58%	1.22%	2.10%	3.33%	5.12%	7.21%	9.58%	12.47%	15.57%	19.09%	23.53%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Portland Thorns	38.57%	21.89%	13.92%	9.46%	6.25%	3.94%	5.96%
Houston Dash	18.86%	19.12%	16.16%	13.04%	10.18%	7.66%	14.96%
Seattle Reign	14.91%	16.69%	15.93%	13.71%	11.42%	8.94%	18.39%
Chicago Red Stars	13.10%	15.64%	15.45%	13.95%	11.71%	9.44%	20.71%
North Carolina Courage	6.31%	9.75%	11.99%	12.95%	13.04%	11.96%	34.00%
San Diego Wave FC	2.74%	5.03%	7.18%	9.50%	10.77%	11.89%	52.89%
Washington Spirit	2.25%	4.36%	6.64%	8.61%	10.25%	11.54%	56.37%
Kansas City Current	2.12%	4.26%	6.39%	8.29%	10.29%	11.32%	57.34%
Angel City FC	0.35%	0.97%	1.78%	3.04%	4.51%	6.43%	82.92%
Racing Louisville	0.31%	0.84%	1.66%	2.71%	4.18%	5.85%	84.45%
Orlando Pride	0.27%	0.88%	1.69%	2.64%	4.06%	5.90%	84.56%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	0.20%	0.58%	1.22%	2.10%	3.33%	5.12%	87.45%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+3.03%

Slight Edge

37.12%28.79%34.09%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 10.53 Elo pts.

198 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.22 goals

Lean Home

-2+0.05+2

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 4.36 · As Expected: 4.36 to 6 · Elevated: 6 to 8.18 · High Variance: 8.18 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.81 · Close: 1.81 to 2.45 · Off Target: 2.45 to 3.19 · Well Off Target: 3.19 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.1 · As Expected: 1.1 to 1.84 · More Than Expected: 1.84 to 2.94 · Far More Than Expected: 2.94 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.48 points

As Expected

05.4514

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

02.135

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

94.13%

Kansas City Current

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.21%

NY/NJ Gotham FC

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

As Expected

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 6

Fewer Than Expected

01.56

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.15

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.23

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

69%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

87%

Lopsided

50%89%100%

Close Games

Expected

70%

Nail-Biters

0%59%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Occasional

0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.66

Hard to Predict

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.06

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.35

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.15 · Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.3 · Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.02

Misfit

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.60

Overconfident

0.4811131.001.51889

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.138

Within Noise

00.1490.4

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Quarterfinals	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals
Portland Thorns	41.13%	16.79%	41.13%	24.61%
Seattle Reign	32.16%	25.00%	32.16%	19.27%
Houston Dash	31.92%	23.53%	31.92%	15.29%
Chicago Red Stars	27.21%	25.27%	27.21%	11.94%
North Carolina Courage	24.97%	24.97%	22.37%	11.73%
San Diego Wave FC	19.67%	19.67%	13.61%	6.11%
Kansas City Current	18.14%	18.14%	11.87%	5.27%
Washington Spirit	18.52%	18.52%	9.36%	2.85%
Angel City FC	7.88%	7.88%	3.23%	1.00%
Racing Louisville	7.20%	7.20%	3.10%	1.00%
Orlando Pride	7.15%	7.15%	2.52%	0.65%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	5.89%	5.89%	1.52%	0.27%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Racing Louisville	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
Angel City FC		34.5%0.12%	36.2%0.14%	34.8%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	32.2%0.12%	20.0%<0.01%	22.3%0.29%	50.0%<0.01%	30.9%0.05%	29.1%0.21%	46.8%0.02%
Chicago Red Stars	65.5%0.12%		47.6%1.99%	49.6%0.56%	76.0%0.03%	44.1%1.51%	65.3%0.07%	38.4%3.87%	59.6%0.11%	51.1%0.70%	37.6%2.68%	60.1%0.31%
Houston Dash	63.8%0.14%	52.4%1.99%		50.5%0.82%	80.0%0.03%	45.9%1.95%	73.0%0.10%	40.5%5.24%	59.1%0.15%	53.3%0.98%	41.0%3.50%	66.7%0.40%
Kansas City Current	65.2%0.04%	50.4%0.56%	49.5%0.82%		69.6%0.01%	42.0%0.63%	69.4%0.03%	38.9%1.58%	45.2%0.04%	50.1%0.28%	38.9%1.14%	65.5%0.12%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	33.3%<0.01%	24.0%0.03%	20.0%0.03%	30.4%0.01%		18.3%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	20.7%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	22.2%0.01%	14.4%0.06%	35.7%<0.01%
North Carolina Courage	67.8%0.12%	55.9%1.51%	54.1%1.95%	58.0%0.63%	81.7%0.03%		67.2%0.06%	44.8%3.66%	76.1%0.11%	56.1%0.68%	44.4%2.66%	70.9%0.32%
Orlando Pride	80.0%<0.01%	34.7%0.07%	27.0%0.10%	30.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	32.8%0.06%		22.3%0.20%	33.3%<0.01%	23.5%0.03%	16.2%0.13%	66.7%0.01%
Portland Thorns	77.7%0.29%	61.6%3.87%	59.5%5.24%	61.1%1.58%	79.3%0.08%	55.2%3.66%	77.7%0.20%		68.3%0.28%	60.9%1.83%	49.9%6.73%	74.7%0.87%
Racing Louisville	50.0%<0.01%	40.4%0.11%	40.9%0.15%	54.8%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	23.9%0.11%	66.7%<0.01%	31.7%0.28%		35.6%0.05%	29.4%0.20%	50.0%0.02%
San Diego Wave FC	69.1%0.05%	48.9%0.70%	46.7%0.98%	49.9%0.28%	77.8%0.01%	43.9%0.68%	76.5%0.03%	39.1%1.83%	64.4%0.05%		39.0%1.35%	69.9%0.15%
Seattle Reign	70.9%0.21%	62.4%2.68%	59.0%3.50%	61.1%1.14%	85.6%0.06%	55.6%2.66%	83.8%0.13%	50.1%6.73%	70.6%0.20%	61.0%1.35%		74.5%0.60%
Washington Spirit	53.2%0.02%	39.9%0.31%	33.3%0.40%	34.5%0.12%	64.3%<0.01%	29.1%0.32%	33.3%0.01%	25.3%0.87%	50.0%0.02%	30.1%0.15%	25.5%0.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Racing Louisville	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
Angel City FC		32.3%1.17%	30.3%1.13%	36.1%0.59%	66.4%0.17%	27.5%1.03%	58.5%0.20%	24.0%0.87%	50.0%0.20%	33.2%0.70%	22.6%1.19%	49.4%0.62%
Chicago Red Stars	67.7%1.17%		47.1%3.20%	51.0%2.75%	79.8%0.89%	42.4%3.83%	72.0%1.08%	37.8%1.96%	61.9%1.07%	50.3%2.98%	36.0%3.54%	66.1%2.80%
Houston Dash	69.7%1.13%	52.9%3.20%		54.8%2.64%	82.8%0.83%	46.7%3.43%	74.3%1.02%	39.4%1.68%	68.9%1.05%	54.0%2.83%	40.1%3.06%	68.6%2.65%
Kansas City Current	63.9%0.59%	49.0%2.75%	45.2%2.64%		78.2%0.46%	41.8%2.57%	72.0%0.55%	37.1%1.89%	62.4%0.57%	47.9%1.77%	35.3%2.71%	65.0%1.65%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	33.6%0.17%	20.2%0.89%	17.2%0.83%	21.8%0.46%		15.7%0.75%	41.3%0.15%	11.6%0.67%	33.5%0.14%	19.0%0.49%	12.8%0.89%	31.0%0.45%
North Carolina Courage	72.5%1.03%	57.6%3.83%	53.3%3.43%	58.2%2.57%	84.3%0.75%		76.6%0.94%	43.4%2.35%	69.8%0.94%	55.7%2.79%	43.4%3.73%	71.3%2.61%
Orlando Pride	41.5%0.20%	28.0%1.08%	25.7%1.02%	28.0%0.55%	58.7%0.15%	23.4%0.94%		18.9%0.75%	43.8%0.18%	26.9%0.64%	18.2%1.06%	44.0%0.58%
Portland Thorns	76.0%0.87%	62.2%1.96%	60.6%1.68%	62.9%1.89%	88.4%0.67%	56.6%2.35%	81.1%0.75%		75.7%0.77%	63.8%2.01%	49.4%1.95%	76.7%1.88%
Racing Louisville	50.0%0.20%	38.1%1.07%	31.1%1.05%	37.6%0.57%	66.5%0.14%	30.2%0.94%	56.2%0.18%	24.3%0.77%		36.3%0.64%	25.8%1.05%	51.7%0.59%
San Diego Wave FC	66.8%0.70%	49.7%2.98%	46.0%2.83%	52.1%1.77%	81.0%0.49%	44.3%2.79%	73.1%0.64%	36.2%2.01%	63.7%0.64%		37.1%2.99%	66.2%1.84%
Seattle Reign	77.4%1.19%	64.0%3.54%	59.9%3.06%	64.7%2.71%	87.2%0.89%	56.6%3.73%	81.8%1.06%	50.6%1.95%	74.2%1.05%	62.9%2.99%		77.2%2.83%
Washington Spirit	50.6%0.62%	33.9%2.80%	31.4%2.65%	35.0%1.65%	69.0%0.45%	28.7%2.61%	56.0%0.58%	23.3%1.88%	48.3%0.59%	33.8%1.84%	22.8%2.83%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Angel City FC	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	NY/NJ Gotham FC	North Carolina Courage	Orlando Pride	Portland Thorns	Racing Louisville	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign	Washington Spirit
Angel City FC		35.8%0.44%	34.1%0.61%	30.8%0.12%	81.1%0.02%	27.7%0.28%	62.3%0.03%	25.2%0.93%	65.5%0.03%	38.1%0.15%	23.5%0.53%	51.4%0.11%
Chicago Red Stars	64.2%0.44%		46.7%5.22%	49.2%1.74%	78.6%0.22%	41.9%3.39%	69.6%0.34%	37.4%6.74%	62.3%0.41%	48.0%1.99%	36.6%5.41%	62.9%1.32%
Houston Dash	65.9%0.61%	53.3%5.22%		52.2%2.18%	82.2%0.28%	44.4%4.37%	71.0%0.48%	40.5%7.43%	64.2%0.57%	52.1%2.51%	40.0%6.59%	67.6%1.68%
Kansas City Current	69.2%0.12%	50.8%1.74%	47.8%2.18%		69.3%0.06%	42.9%1.16%	69.6%0.08%	37.9%3.35%	64.9%0.11%	50.9%0.59%	36.8%2.04%	63.9%0.43%
NY/NJ Gotham FC	18.9%0.02%	21.4%0.22%	17.8%0.28%	30.7%0.06%		13.3%0.14%	25.0%0.01%	14.3%0.42%	54.5%0.02%	17.4%0.07%	11.9%0.23%	28.2%0.06%
North Carolina Courage	72.3%0.28%	58.1%3.39%	55.6%4.37%	57.1%1.16%	86.7%0.14%		75.4%0.23%	45.0%6.12%	71.0%0.27%	56.5%1.39%	43.9%4.15%	71.8%0.88%
Orlando Pride	37.7%0.03%	30.4%0.34%	29.0%0.48%	30.4%0.08%	75.0%0.01%	24.6%0.23%		19.9%0.71%	30.0%0.03%	33.8%0.11%	20.7%0.42%	42.3%0.10%
Portland Thorns	74.8%0.93%	62.6%6.74%	59.5%7.43%	62.1%3.35%	85.7%0.42%	55.0%6.12%	80.1%0.71%		73.5%0.90%	61.4%3.83%	48.9%8.19%	75.4%2.52%
Racing Louisville	34.5%0.03%	37.7%0.41%	35.8%0.57%	35.1%0.11%	45.5%0.02%	29.0%0.27%	70.0%0.03%	26.5%0.90%		33.9%0.12%	27.1%0.53%	56.7%0.10%
San Diego Wave FC	61.9%0.15%	52.0%1.99%	47.9%2.51%	49.1%0.59%	82.6%0.07%	43.5%1.39%	66.2%0.11%	38.6%3.83%	66.1%0.12%		37.5%2.38%	64.9%0.47%
Seattle Reign	76.5%0.53%	63.4%5.41%	60.0%6.59%	63.2%2.04%	88.1%0.23%	56.1%4.15%	79.3%0.42%	51.1%8.19%	72.9%0.53%	62.5%2.38%		74.4%1.69%
Washington Spirit	48.6%0.11%	37.1%1.32%	32.4%1.68%	36.1%0.43%	71.8%0.06%	28.2%0.88%	57.7%0.10%	24.6%2.52%	43.3%0.10%	35.1%0.47%	25.6%1.69%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Quarterfinals	Advanced to Semifinals	Won Semifinals	Actual Outcome
Portland Thorns	-	50.00%	30.60%	Won Semifinals
Kansas City Current	50.00%	22.31%	8.50%	Eliminated in Semifinals

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	Portland Thorns	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign
Chicago Red Stars		47.6%2.12%	48.8%1.61%			39.8%5.56%
Houston Dash	52.4%2.12%			42.7%6.95%	51.8%2.32%
Kansas City Current	51.2%1.61%			40.4%5.21%	48.3%1.68%
Portland Thorns		57.3%6.95%	59.6%5.21%			48.1%18.44%
San Diego Wave FC		48.2%2.32%	51.7%1.68%			39.6%6.12%
Seattle Reign	60.2%5.56%			51.9%18.44%	60.4%6.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	San Diego Wave FC
Chicago Red Stars				48.0%50.00%
Houston Dash			55.4%50.00%
Kansas City Current		44.6%50.00%
San Diego Wave FC	52.0%50.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Red Stars	Houston Dash	Kansas City Current	Portland Thorns	San Diego Wave FC	Seattle Reign
Chicago Red Stars				38.7%24.01%
Houston Dash						41.1%27.69%
Kansas City Current						38.1%22.31%
Portland Thorns	61.3%24.01%				61.1%25.99%
San Diego Wave FC				38.9%25.99%
Seattle Reign		58.9%27.69%	61.9%22.31%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Portland Thorns 30.60% chance to win

Finals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

55.60%

Win Prob

48.14%

→

Semifinals

vs. San Diego Wave FC

Matchup

51.88%

Win Prob

61.07%

Seattle Reign 30.11% chance to win

Finals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

57.58%

Win Prob

51.86%

→

Semifinals

vs. Houston Dash

Matchup

54.15%

Win Prob

58.88%

Houston Dash 11.39% chance to win

Finals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

56.24%

Win Prob

42.74%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. Kansas City Current

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.38%

→

Semifinals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.12%

San Diego Wave FC 10.12% chance to win

Finals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

54.92%

Win Prob

39.61%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. Chicago Red Stars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.99%

→

Semifinals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.93%

Chicago Red Stars 9.28% chance to win

Finals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

55.23%

Win Prob

39.77%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. San Diego Wave FC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.01%

→

Semifinals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.66%

Kansas City Current 8.50% chance to win

Finals

vs. Portland Thorns

Matchup

56.31%

Win Prob

40.37%

→

Quarterfinals

vs. Houston Dash

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.62%

→

Semifinals

vs. Seattle Reign

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.10%

Filter by Team:

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2022-04-30	North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	60.5	1400.00	1548.43	16.49%	34.15%	49.36%	-0.70	+25.29	3
2022-05-09	Orlando Pride	L 0-1	47.8	1425.29	1443.96	29.29%	39.09%	31.61%	-0.04	-17.93	3
2022-05-15	@ Washington Spirit	W 1-0	55.7	1407.36	1552.77	15.41%	32.91%	51.68%	-0.79	+26.09	6
2022-05-22	Kansas City Current	W 1-0	47.3	1433.45	1429.89	32.47%	39.06%	28.48%	+0.07	+17.61	9
2022-05-30	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-1	49.3	1451.06	1491.00	26.48%	38.87%	34.65%	-0.15	-16.81	9
2022-06-04	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-3	41.9	1434.25	1537.61	18.14%	35.63%	46.23%	-0.58	-21.73	9
2022-06-08	Houston Dash	T 0-0	55.5	1412.52	1586.56	15.00%	32.37%	52.64%	-0.83	+4.03	10
2022-06-12	@ Racing Louisville	W 3-2	60.3	1416.55	1448.77	24.87%	38.59%	36.54%	-0.22	+20.60	13
2022-06-19	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-1	47.1	1437.15	1531.89	18.80%	36.11%	45.09%	-0.53	-12.96	13
2022-07-02	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	62.2	1424.19	1620.88	13.85%	30.67%	55.48%	-0.94	+4.50	14
2022-07-10	San Diego Wave FC	W 2-1	60.0	1428.69	1534.24	19.64%	36.64%	43.72%	-0.48	+23.26	17
2022-07-31	Seattle Reign	L 2-3	59.7	1451.95	1547.15	20.54%	37.13%	42.32%	-0.43	-13.97	17
2022-08-08	@ Orlando Pride	T 2-2	59.1	1437.98	1427.67	30.41%	39.11%	30.48%	+0.00	+0.00	18
2022-08-15	Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	55.9	1437.98	1554.41	18.75%	36.08%	45.17%	-0.54	+23.79	21
2022-08-20	@ Kansas City Current	T 1-1	59.2	1461.77	1550.03	19.33%	36.45%	44.22%	-0.50	+2.54	22
2022-08-28	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 3-1	45.6	1464.31	1362.15	43.26%	36.81%	19.93%	+0.46	+19.27	25
2022-09-12	@ Houston Dash	T 1-1	60.0	1483.58	1555.14	20.78%	37.25%	41.97%	-0.42	+2.13	26
2022-09-15	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	50.8	1485.71	1567.65	19.86%	36.77%	43.38%	-0.47	-13.58	26
2022-09-18	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 0-1	49.8	1472.13	1530.16	22.08%	37.80%	40.12%	-0.35	-14.79	26
2022-09-22	Washington Spirit	W 2-1	56.8	1457.34	1485.73	27.97%	39.02%	33.00%	-0.09	+19.31	29
2022-09-26	Racing Louisville	L 1-3	53.8	1476.65	1381.25	45.17%	36.07%	18.75%	+0.54	-33.65	29
2022-10-03	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-2	44.4	1443.00	1518.70	20.40%	37.06%	42.53%	-0.44	-19.65	29
2022-05-01	Racing Louisville	W 2-1	55.6	1539.65	1475.81	40.92%	37.57%	21.51%	+0.38	+14.49	3
2022-05-15	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 1-2	61.8	1554.14	1474.99	40.13%	37.80%	22.07%	+0.35	-21.94	3
2022-05-23	@ Orlando Pride	W 4-2	58.1	1532.20	1482.90	35.97%	38.69%	25.34%	+0.20	+23.08	6
2022-05-29	Portland Thorns	T 2-2	67.2	1555.28	1536.85	34.59%	38.87%	26.54%	+0.15	-0.76	7
2022-06-02	@ Washington Spirit	T 1-1	61.0	1554.52	1526.65	32.93%	39.03%	28.04%	+0.09	-0.46	8
2022-06-04	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	55.8	1554.06	1550.57	32.46%	39.06%	28.49%	+0.07	+17.62	11
2022-06-09	Washington Spirit	T 0-0	56.8	1571.68	1508.28	40.86%	37.59%	21.55%	+0.37	-1.93	12
2022-06-13	Orlando Pride	W 1-0	46.7	1569.75	1432.53	50.63%	33.48%	15.89%	+0.75	+10.99	15
2022-06-19	@ Kansas City Current	T 2-2	66.0	1580.74	1447.61	47.37%	35.11%	17.51%	+0.62	-3.11	16
2022-07-03	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 3-0	45.3	1577.63	1468.93	44.14%	36.48%	19.38%	+0.50	+23.05	19
2022-07-11	North Carolina Courage	T 2-2	68.3	1600.68	1492.84	46.82%	35.37%	17.82%	+0.60	-3.01	20
2022-07-17	@ Houston Dash	L 1-4	59.4	1597.67	1511.35	41.11%	37.52%	21.37%	+0.38	-38.63	20
2022-07-31	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-1	57.4	1559.04	1508.16	39.14%	38.05%	22.81%	+0.31	-21.57	20
2022-08-08	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-0	42.7	1537.47	1421.97	47.82%	34.90%	17.28%	+0.64	+16.94	23
2022-08-15	@ Angel City FC	L 0-1	55.9	1554.41	1437.98	45.17%	36.08%	18.75%	+0.54	-23.79	23
2022-08-21	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-4	49.5	1530.62	1481.38	35.97%	38.69%	25.35%	+0.20	-40.80	23
2022-08-28	@ Racing Louisville	W 4-0	41.3	1489.82	1415.04	39.53%	37.96%	22.51%	+0.32	+30.01	26
2022-09-10	@ Seattle Reign	T 2-2	67.4	1519.83	1572.57	22.62%	37.99%	39.39%	-0.32	+1.65	27
2022-09-15	Kansas City Current	W 4-0	52.5	1521.48	1573.79	24.98%	38.62%	36.40%	-0.21	+41.12	30
2022-09-18	Houston Dash	L 0-1	57.6	1562.60	1553.01	33.33%	39.00%	27.68%	+0.10	-19.43	30
2022-09-25	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-3	49.5	1543.17	1614.13	20.84%	37.27%	41.89%	-0.41	-24.47	30
2022-10-03	Angel City FC	W 2-0	44.4	1518.70	1443.00	42.53%	37.06%	20.40%	+0.44	+19.65	33
2022-05-02	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-1	54.6	1535.48	1400.00	50.41%	33.60%	15.99%	+0.74	-25.65	0
2022-05-08	@ Kansas City Current	W 2-0	45.9	1509.83	1451.13	37.30%	38.46%	24.25%	+0.24	+22.39	3
2022-05-15	@ Racing Louisville	T 1-1	58.1	1532.22	1463.20	38.73%	38.15%	23.12%	+0.30	-1.53	4
2022-05-22	@ Portland Thorns	W 2-0	54.7	1530.69	1566.24	24.49%	38.51%	37.00%	-0.23	+29.39	7
2022-05-30	North Carolina Courage	T 1-1	60.2	1560.08	1480.83	43.01%	36.90%	20.09%	+0.45	-2.32	8
2022-06-04	Orlando Pride	W 5-0	44.4	1557.76	1461.33	45.31%	36.02%	18.67%	+0.54	+28.80	11
2022-06-08	@ Angel City FC	T 0-0	55.5	1586.56	1412.52	52.64%	32.37%	15.00%	+0.83	-4.03	12
2022-06-13	Portland Thorns	L 0-4	53.7	1582.53	1557.56	35.51%	38.75%	25.73%	+0.18	-40.46	12
2022-06-19	@ North Carolina Courage	W 4-3	68.9	1542.07	1534.37	30.04%	39.11%	30.85%	-0.01	+18.51	15
2022-07-02	Kansas City Current	L 1-2	62.4	1560.58	1450.72	47.08%	35.25%	17.67%	+0.61	-24.48	15
2022-07-09	@ Orlando Pride	L 0-1	54.2	1536.10	1399.23	47.86%	34.88%	17.25%	+0.64	-24.75	15
2022-07-17	Chicago Red Stars	W 4-1	59.4	1511.35	1597.67	21.37%	37.52%	41.11%	-0.38	+38.63	18
2022-07-31	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 4-2	54.7	1549.98	1440.75	44.21%	36.46%	19.33%	+0.50	+18.78	21
2022-08-08	@ Seattle Reign	W 2-1	62.6	1568.76	1557.51	30.55%	39.11%	30.34%	+0.00	+18.32	24
2022-08-13	Racing Louisville	T 0-0	55.9	1587.08	1410.52	55.59%	30.60%	13.81%	+0.95	-4.52	25
2022-08-18	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-1	48.7	1582.56	1385.76	58.09%	29.01%	12.91%	+1.05	+8.55	28
2022-08-21	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 1-3	61.2	1591.11	1486.79	43.55%	36.70%	19.75%	+0.47	-32.81	28
2022-08-28	Washington Spirit	T 2-2	65.1	1558.30	1444.24	47.63%	34.99%	17.38%	+0.63	-3.16	29
2022-09-12	Angel City FC	T 1-1	60.0	1555.14	1483.58	41.97%	37.25%	20.78%	+0.42	-2.13	30
2022-09-18	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	57.6	1553.01	1562.60	27.68%	39.00%	33.33%	-0.10	+19.42	33
2022-09-25	Seattle Reign	L 0-2	54.4	1572.43	1596.80	28.51%	39.06%	32.43%	-0.07	-24.93	33
2022-10-02	@ Washington Spirit	W 2-1	53.8	1547.50	1441.67	43.76%	36.63%	19.62%	+0.48	+13.45	36
2022-05-01	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-3	45.1	1475.81	1544.44	21.05%	37.37%	41.57%	-0.40	-24.68	0
2022-05-08	Houston Dash	L 0-2	45.9	1451.13	1509.83	24.25%	38.46%	37.30%	-0.24	-22.39	0
2022-05-15	@ Orlando Pride	T 2-2	60.0	1428.74	1461.89	24.76%	38.57%	36.66%	-0.22	+1.15	1
2022-05-22	@ Angel City FC	L 0-1	47.3	1429.89	1433.45	28.48%	39.06%	32.47%	-0.07	-17.62	1
2022-05-26	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-1	45.3	1412.27	1522.48	17.65%	35.23%	47.13%	-0.61	-12.22	1
2022-05-30	Racing Louisville	W 1-0	52.4	1400.05	1504.58	19.73%	36.69%	43.58%	-0.48	+23.21	4
2022-06-05	San Diego Wave FC	T 2-2	60.5	1423.26	1481.73	24.27%	38.46%	37.26%	-0.24	+1.26	5
2022-06-12	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 1-0	54.0	1424.52	1526.63	19.93%	36.81%	43.26%	-0.46	+23.09	8
2022-06-19	Chicago Red Stars	T 2-2	66.0	1447.61	1580.74	17.51%	35.11%	47.37%	-0.62	+3.11	9
2022-07-02	@ Houston Dash	W 2-1	62.4	1450.72	1560.58	17.67%	35.25%	47.08%	-0.61	+24.48	12
2022-07-10	@ Washington Spirit	W 1-0	51.1	1475.20	1473.34	29.22%	39.09%	31.69%	-0.04	+18.82	15
2022-07-18	Seattle Reign	W 1-0	57.4	1494.02	1568.88	22.51%	37.95%	39.54%	-0.33	+21.72	18
2022-08-01	Orlando Pride	T 2-2	62.4	1515.74	1425.07	44.54%	36.33%	19.13%	+0.51	-2.60	19
2022-08-07	@ San Diego Wave FC	W 2-1	60.9	1513.14	1529.73	26.77%	38.90%	34.33%	-0.14	+19.79	22
2022-08-14	@ North Carolina Courage	W 4-3	66.2	1532.93	1498.48	33.87%	38.95%	27.18%	+0.12	+17.10	25
2022-08-20	Angel City FC	T 1-1	59.2	1550.03	1461.77	44.22%	36.45%	19.33%	+0.50	-2.55	26
2022-08-29	North Carolina Courage	W 3-2	67.0	1547.48	1556.76	30.62%	39.11%	30.26%	+0.01	+18.30	29
2022-09-12	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 1-0	40.2	1565.78	1333.47	59.84%	27.85%	12.31%	+1.12	+8.01	32
2022-09-15	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-4	52.5	1573.79	1521.48	36.40%	38.62%	24.98%	+0.21	-41.12	32
2022-09-18	Portland Thorns	T 1-1	62.9	1532.67	1601.33	23.15%	38.16%	38.68%	-0.29	+1.52	33
2022-09-25	Washington Spirit	W 3-0	44.4	1534.19	1466.42	41.46%	37.41%	21.13%	+0.40	+24.76	36
2022-10-02	@ Racing Louisville	L 0-1	55.8	1558.95	1414.90	48.80%	34.43%	16.77%	+0.68	-25.09	36
2022-05-02	@ Orlando Pride	W 3-0	45.6	1533.61	1471.03	37.84%	38.35%	23.81%	+0.26	+27.07	3
2022-05-08	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 0-4	50.9	1560.68	1425.65	47.62%	35.00%	17.38%	+0.63	-49.34	3
2022-05-22	Racing Louisville	L 0-1	54.0	1511.34	1484.24	35.81%	38.71%	25.48%	+0.19	-20.34	3
2022-05-30	@ Angel City FC	W 1-0	49.3	1491.00	1451.06	34.65%	38.87%	26.48%	+0.15	+16.81	6
2022-06-05	Washington Spirit	W 1-0	54.3	1507.81	1527.11	29.21%	39.09%	31.70%	-0.04	+18.82	9
2022-06-12	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-1	54.0	1526.63	1424.52	43.26%	36.81%	19.93%	+0.46	-23.09	9
2022-06-19	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-3	48.4	1503.54	1483.31	34.84%	38.84%	26.31%	+0.16	-34.61	9
2022-07-03	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-3	45.3	1468.93	1577.63	19.38%	36.48%	44.14%	-0.50	-23.04	9
2022-07-09	@ Racing Louisville	W 2-1	53.6	1445.89	1429.53	31.28%	39.10%	29.62%	+0.03	+18.05	12
2022-07-17	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-5	44.5	1463.94	1615.39	15.08%	32.48%	52.44%	-0.82	-23.19	12
2022-07-31	Houston Dash	L 2-4	54.7	1440.75	1549.98	19.33%	36.46%	44.21%	-0.50	-18.78	12
2022-08-08	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-2	42.7	1421.97	1537.47	17.28%	34.90%	47.82%	-0.64	-16.94	12
2022-08-14	@ Seattle Reign	L 1-4	44.8	1405.03	1539.19	16.07%	33.69%	50.24%	-0.73	-19.27	12
2022-08-18	@ Houston Dash	L 1-2	48.7	1385.76	1582.56	12.91%	29.01%	58.09%	-1.05	-8.55	12
2022-08-21	Orlando Pride	L 1-2	49.8	1377.21	1450.81	22.64%	38.00%	39.37%	-0.32	-15.06	12
2022-08-28	Angel City FC	L 1-3	45.6	1362.15	1464.31	19.93%	36.81%	43.26%	-0.46	-19.27	12
2022-09-04	North Carolina Courage	L 0-1	41.0	1342.88	1538.46	13.91%	30.76%	55.34%	-0.94	-9.41	12
2022-09-12	Kansas City Current	L 0-1	40.2	1333.47	1565.78	12.31%	27.85%	59.84%	-1.12	-8.01	12
2022-09-18	@ Washington Spirit	L 0-2	36.6	1325.46	1470.68	15.42%	32.92%	51.65%	-0.79	-15.05	12
2022-09-22	Seattle Reign	L 0-1	38.6	1310.41	1590.37	10.57%	23.98%	65.45%	-1.36	-6.42	12
2022-09-25	@ North Carolina Courage	L 0-3	32.5	1303.99	1580.87	9.98%	22.54%	67.48%	-1.45	-10.21	12
2022-10-02	Portland Thorns	T 3-3	71.3	1293.78	1638.60	8.53%	18.95%	72.53%	-1.69	+6.84	13
2022-04-30	@ Angel City FC	L 1-2	60.5	1548.43	1400.00	49.36%	34.15%	16.49%	+0.70	-25.29	0
2022-05-19	Orlando Pride	L 1-2	60.2	1523.14	1460.74	40.72%	37.63%	21.65%	+0.37	-22.16	0
2022-05-22	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-1	53.2	1500.98	1477.43	35.31%	38.78%	25.91%	+0.17	-20.15	0
2022-05-30	@ Houston Dash	T 1-1	60.2	1480.83	1560.08	20.09%	36.90%	43.01%	-0.45	+2.32	1
2022-06-05	@ Racing Louisville	W 3-0	46.7	1483.15	1481.37	29.21%	39.09%	31.70%	-0.04	+32.60	4
2022-06-12	@ Washington Spirit	W 3-2	64.5	1515.75	1510.21	29.73%	39.10%	31.16%	-0.03	+18.62	7
2022-06-19	Houston Dash	L 3-4	68.9	1534.37	1542.07	30.85%	39.11%	30.04%	+0.01	-18.51	7
2022-07-02	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-2	50.0	1515.86	1544.85	25.25%	38.67%	36.08%	-0.20	-23.02	7
2022-07-11	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 2-2	68.3	1492.84	1600.68	17.82%	35.37%	46.82%	-0.60	+3.01	8
2022-07-30	Washington Spirit	T 3-3	66.1	1495.85	1453.44	37.96%	38.32%	23.72%	+0.27	-1.39	9
2022-08-06	@ Portland Thorns	T 3-3	74.6	1494.46	1646.88	15.03%	32.41%	52.56%	-0.82	+4.02	10
2022-08-14	Kansas City Current	L 3-4	66.2	1498.48	1532.93	27.18%	38.95%	33.87%	-0.12	-17.10	10
2022-08-21	Chicago Red Stars	W 4-0	49.5	1481.38	1530.62	25.35%	38.69%	35.97%	-0.20	+40.79	13
2022-08-25	Portland Thorns	W 3-1	64.8	1522.17	1652.55	17.71%	35.28%	47.01%	-0.61	+34.59	16
2022-08-29	@ Kansas City Current	L 2-3	67.0	1556.76	1547.48	30.26%	39.11%	30.62%	-0.01	-18.30	16
2022-09-04	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 1-0	41.0	1538.46	1342.88	55.34%	30.76%	13.91%	+0.94	+9.41	19
2022-09-11	Racing Louisville	W 5-1	41.9	1547.87	1385.03	53.88%	31.64%	14.48%	+0.88	+19.78	22
2022-09-15	Angel City FC	W 1-0	50.8	1567.65	1485.71	43.38%	36.77%	19.86%	+0.47	+13.59	25
2022-09-18	Seattle Reign	L 1-2	64.2	1581.24	1570.91	33.43%	38.99%	27.58%	+0.11	-19.46	25
2022-09-22	@ Orlando Pride	W 3-0	40.3	1561.78	1404.24	50.53%	33.53%	15.93%	+0.74	+19.09	28
2022-09-25	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 3-0	32.5	1580.87	1303.99	67.48%	22.54%	9.98%	+1.45	+10.21	31
2022-10-01	@ San Diego Wave FC	T 0-0	58.2	1591.08	1541.23	36.05%	38.67%	25.27%	+0.20	-1.03	32
2022-05-02	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-3	45.6	1471.03	1533.61	23.81%	38.35%	37.84%	-0.26	-27.07	0
2022-05-09	@ Angel City FC	W 1-0	47.8	1443.96	1425.29	31.61%	39.09%	29.29%	+0.04	+17.93	3
2022-05-15	Kansas City Current	T 2-2	60.0	1461.89	1428.74	36.66%	38.57%	24.76%	+0.22	-1.15	4
2022-05-19	@ North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	60.2	1460.74	1523.14	21.65%	37.63%	40.72%	-0.37	+22.16	7
2022-05-23	Chicago Red Stars	L 2-4	58.1	1482.90	1532.20	25.34%	38.69%	35.97%	-0.20	-23.08	7
2022-05-28	Washington Spirit	T 2-2	63.6	1459.82	1528.16	23.19%	38.17%	38.64%	-0.29	+1.51	8
2022-06-04	@ Houston Dash	L 0-5	44.4	1461.33	1557.76	18.67%	36.02%	45.31%	-0.54	-28.80	8
2022-06-13	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	46.7	1432.53	1569.75	15.89%	33.48%	50.63%	-0.75	-10.99	8
2022-06-19	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-6	42.2	1421.54	1598.02	13.81%	30.60%	55.58%	-0.95	-22.86	8
2022-07-04	Racing Louisville	T 2-2	58.1	1398.68	1430.08	27.58%	38.99%	33.44%	-0.11	+0.55	9
2022-07-09	Houston Dash	W 1-0	54.2	1399.23	1536.10	17.25%	34.88%	47.86%	-0.64	+24.76	12
2022-07-17	@ Washington Spirit	T 0-0	49.4	1423.99	1454.52	25.07%	38.63%	36.30%	-0.21	+1.08	13
2022-08-01	@ Kansas City Current	T 2-2	62.4	1425.07	1515.74	19.13%	36.33%	44.54%	-0.51	+2.60	14
2022-08-08	Angel City FC	T 2-2	59.1	1427.67	1437.98	30.48%	39.11%	30.41%	+0.00	-0.01	15
2022-08-14	@ San Diego Wave FC	W 1-0	53.5	1427.66	1509.94	19.83%	36.75%	43.42%	-0.47	+23.15	18
2022-08-21	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-1	49.8	1450.81	1377.21	39.37%	38.00%	22.64%	+0.32	+15.07	21
2022-08-27	Seattle Reign	L 1-2	55.6	1465.88	1558.46	20.78%	37.25%	41.97%	-0.41	-14.11	21
2022-09-10	Portland Thorns	L 0-2	45.7	1451.77	1584.12	17.57%	35.16%	47.27%	-0.62	-17.21	21
2022-09-17	@ Racing Louisville	L 0-2	45.3	1434.56	1365.25	38.77%	38.14%	23.09%	+0.30	-30.32	21
2022-09-22	North Carolina Courage	L 0-3	40.3	1404.24	1561.78	15.93%	33.53%	50.53%	-0.74	-19.09	21
2022-09-26	San Diego Wave FC	T 2-2	62.9	1385.15	1544.95	15.80%	33.38%	50.82%	-0.75	+3.71	22
2022-10-02	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-3	38.4	1388.86	1621.73	11.49%	26.09%	62.42%	-1.23	-12.57	22
2022-05-01	Kansas City Current	W 3-0	45.1	1544.44	1475.81	41.57%	37.37%	21.05%	+0.40	+24.68	3
2022-05-14	Seattle Reign	T 0-0	57.0	1569.12	1521.09	38.74%	38.15%	23.11%	+0.30	-1.53	4
2022-05-19	Washington Spirit	T 1-1	61.6	1567.59	1526.68	37.75%	38.37%	23.88%	+0.26	-1.35	5
2022-05-22	Houston Dash	L 0-2	54.7	1566.24	1530.69	37.00%	38.51%	24.49%	+0.23	-29.39	5
2022-05-29	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 2-2	67.2	1536.85	1555.28	26.54%	38.87%	34.59%	-0.15	+0.76	6
2022-06-04	Angel City FC	W 3-0	41.9	1537.61	1434.25	46.23%	35.63%	18.14%	+0.58	+21.74	9
2022-06-09	@ San Diego Wave FC	T 2-2	65.6	1559.35	1480.47	40.09%	37.81%	22.10%	+0.35	-1.79	10
2022-06-13	@ Houston Dash	W 4-0	53.7	1557.56	1582.53	25.73%	38.75%	35.51%	-0.18	+40.46	13
2022-06-19	Orlando Pride	W 6-0	42.2	1598.02	1421.54	55.58%	30.60%	13.81%	+0.95	+22.86	16
2022-07-02	@ Angel City FC	T 1-1	62.2	1620.88	1424.19	55.48%	30.67%	13.85%	+0.94	-4.49	17
2022-07-11	@ Seattle Reign	T 2-2	69.9	1616.39	1567.88	35.86%	38.70%	25.43%	+0.19	-1.00	18
2022-07-17	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 5-0	44.5	1615.39	1463.94	52.44%	32.48%	15.08%	+0.82	+23.19	21
2022-07-30	@ Racing Louisville	W 2-1	51.6	1638.58	1414.29	58.87%	28.50%	12.64%	+1.08	+8.30	24
2022-08-06	North Carolina Courage	T 3-3	74.6	1646.88	1494.46	52.56%	32.41%	15.03%	+0.82	-4.02	25
2022-08-11	@ Washington Spirit	W 2-1	54.4	1642.86	1453.92	54.51%	31.26%	14.23%	+0.90	+9.69	28
2022-08-25	@ North Carolina Courage	L 1-3	64.8	1652.55	1522.17	47.01%	35.28%	17.71%	+0.61	-34.59	28
2022-08-28	San Diego Wave FC	L 0-2	57.7	1617.96	1519.60	45.57%	35.91%	18.52%	+0.55	-33.84	28
2022-09-10	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-0	45.7	1584.12	1451.77	47.27%	35.16%	17.57%	+0.62	+17.21	31
2022-09-18	@ Kansas City Current	T 1-1	62.9	1601.33	1532.67	38.68%	38.16%	23.15%	+0.29	-1.52	32
2022-09-22	Racing Louisville	W 3-0	38.9	1599.81	1395.57	58.99%	28.41%	12.60%	+1.09	+14.32	35
2022-09-25	Chicago Red Stars	W 3-0	49.5	1614.13	1543.17	41.89%	37.27%	20.84%	+0.41	+24.47	38
2022-10-02	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	T 3-3	71.3	1638.60	1293.78	72.53%	18.95%	8.53%	+1.69	-6.84	39
2022-05-01	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 1-2	55.6	1475.81	1539.65	21.51%	37.57%	40.92%	-0.38	-14.49	0
2022-05-09	@ Seattle Reign	T 2-2	63.6	1461.32	1522.97	21.72%	37.66%	40.62%	-0.36	+1.88	1
2022-05-15	Houston Dash	T 1-1	58.1	1463.20	1532.22	23.12%	38.15%	38.73%	-0.30	+1.53	2
2022-05-19	San Diego Wave FC	W 1-0	52.1	1464.73	1496.93	27.47%	38.98%	33.55%	-0.11	+19.51	5
2022-05-22	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 1-0	54.0	1484.24	1511.34	25.48%	38.71%	35.81%	-0.19	+20.34	8
2022-05-30	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-1	52.4	1504.58	1400.05	43.58%	36.69%	19.73%	+0.48	-23.21	8
2022-06-05	North Carolina Courage	L 0-3	46.7	1481.37	1483.15	31.70%	39.09%	29.21%	+0.04	-32.60	8
2022-06-12	Angel City FC	L 2-3	60.3	1448.77	1416.55	36.54%	38.59%	24.87%	+0.22	-20.61	8
2022-06-18	@ Washington Spirit	T 2-2	61.3	1428.16	1491.59	21.55%	37.59%	40.86%	-0.37	+1.92	9
2022-07-04	@ Orlando Pride	T 2-2	58.1	1430.08	1398.68	33.44%	38.99%	27.58%	+0.11	-0.55	10
2022-07-09	NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 1-2	53.6	1429.53	1445.89	29.62%	39.10%	31.28%	-0.03	-18.05	10
2022-07-16	@ San Diego Wave FC	T 0-0	51.6	1411.48	1510.98	18.43%	35.85%	45.72%	-0.56	+2.81	11
2022-07-30	Portland Thorns	L 1-2	51.6	1414.29	1638.58	12.64%	28.50%	58.87%	-1.08	-8.30	11
2022-08-03	Seattle Reign	T 1-1	58.4	1405.99	1561.13	16.08%	33.70%	50.23%	-0.73	+3.62	12
2022-08-06	Washington Spirit	T 1-1	53.4	1409.61	1454.83	25.83%	38.77%	35.40%	-0.18	+0.91	13
2022-08-13	@ Houston Dash	T 0-0	55.9	1410.52	1587.08	13.81%	30.60%	55.59%	-0.95	+4.52	14
2022-08-28	Chicago Red Stars	L 0-4	41.3	1415.04	1489.82	22.51%	37.96%	39.53%	-0.32	-30.01	14
2022-09-11	@ North Carolina Courage	L 1-5	41.9	1385.03	1547.87	14.48%	31.64%	53.88%	-0.88	-19.78	14
2022-09-17	Orlando Pride	W 2-0	45.3	1365.25	1434.56	23.09%	38.14%	38.77%	-0.30	+30.32	17
2022-09-22	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-3	38.9	1395.57	1599.81	12.60%	28.41%	58.99%	-1.09	-14.32	17
2022-09-26	@ Angel City FC	W 3-1	53.8	1381.25	1476.65	18.75%	36.07%	45.17%	-0.54	+33.65	20
2022-10-02	Kansas City Current	W 1-0	55.8	1414.90	1558.95	16.77%	34.43%	48.80%	-0.68	+25.08	23
2022-05-02	@ Houston Dash	W 1-0	54.6	1400.00	1535.48	15.99%	33.60%	50.41%	-0.74	+25.65	3
2022-05-08	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 4-0	50.9	1425.65	1560.68	17.38%	35.00%	47.62%	-0.63	+49.34	6
2022-05-15	Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	61.8	1474.99	1554.14	22.07%	37.80%	40.13%	-0.35	+21.94	9
2022-05-19	@ Racing Louisville	L 0-1	52.1	1496.93	1464.73	33.55%	38.98%	27.47%	+0.11	-19.50	9
2022-05-22	@ North Carolina Courage	W 1-0	53.2	1477.43	1500.98	25.91%	38.78%	35.31%	-0.17	+20.16	12
2022-05-29	@ Seattle Reign	L 0-1	51.8	1497.59	1534.71	24.31%	38.47%	37.22%	-0.24	-15.86	12
2022-06-05	@ Kansas City Current	T 2-2	60.5	1481.73	1423.26	37.26%	38.46%	24.27%	+0.24	-1.26	13
2022-06-09	Portland Thorns	T 2-2	65.6	1480.47	1559.35	22.10%	37.81%	40.09%	-0.35	+1.78	14
2022-06-12	Seattle Reign	T 1-1	58.7	1482.25	1532.95	25.17%	38.65%	36.17%	-0.20	+1.06	15
2022-06-19	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 3-0	48.4	1483.31	1503.54	26.31%	38.84%	34.84%	-0.16	+34.61	18
2022-07-03	Washington Spirit	W 2-1	56.8	1517.92	1489.66	35.98%	38.69%	25.34%	+0.20	+16.32	21
2022-07-10	@ Angel City FC	L 1-2	60.0	1534.24	1428.69	43.72%	36.64%	19.64%	+0.48	-23.26	21
2022-07-16	Racing Louisville	T 0-0	51.6	1510.98	1411.48	45.72%	35.85%	18.43%	+0.56	-2.82	22
2022-07-31	@ Chicago Red Stars	W 1-0	57.4	1508.16	1559.04	22.81%	38.05%	39.14%	-0.31	+21.57	25
2022-08-07	Kansas City Current	L 1-2	60.9	1529.73	1513.14	34.33%	38.90%	26.77%	+0.14	-19.79	25
2022-08-14	Orlando Pride	L 0-1	53.5	1509.94	1427.66	43.42%	36.75%	19.83%	+0.47	-23.15	25
2022-08-21	Houston Dash	W 3-1	61.2	1486.79	1591.11	19.75%	36.70%	43.55%	-0.47	+32.81	28
2022-08-28	@ Portland Thorns	W 2-0	57.7	1519.60	1617.96	18.52%	35.91%	45.57%	-0.55	+33.85	31
2022-09-10	@ Washington Spirit	L 3-4	69.3	1553.45	1447.39	43.79%	36.62%	19.60%	+0.48	-23.29	31
2022-09-18	Angel City FC	W 1-0	49.8	1530.16	1472.13	40.12%	37.80%	22.08%	+0.35	+14.79	34
2022-09-26	@ Orlando Pride	T 2-2	62.9	1544.95	1385.15	50.82%	33.38%	15.80%	+0.75	-3.72	35
2022-10-01	North Carolina Courage	T 0-0	58.2	1541.23	1591.08	25.27%	38.67%	36.05%	-0.20	+1.03	36
2022-05-01	@ Washington Spirit	L 1-2	60.8	1541.11	1534.62	29.87%	39.11%	31.02%	-0.02	-18.14	0
2022-05-09	Racing Louisville	T 2-2	63.6	1522.97	1461.32	40.62%	37.66%	21.72%	+0.36	-1.88	1
2022-05-14	@ Portland Thorns	T 0-0	57.0	1521.09	1569.12	23.11%	38.15%	38.74%	-0.30	+1.53	2
2022-05-23	Washington Spirit	T 0-0	55.4	1522.62	1528.03	31.18%	39.10%	29.72%	+0.03	-0.14	3
2022-05-26	Kansas City Current	W 1-0	45.3	1522.48	1412.27	47.13%	35.23%	17.65%	+0.61	+12.23	6
2022-05-29	San Diego Wave FC	W 1-0	51.8	1534.71	1497.59	37.22%	38.47%	24.31%	+0.24	+15.86	9
2022-06-04	@ Chicago Red Stars	L 0-1	55.8	1550.57	1554.06	28.49%	39.06%	32.46%	-0.07	-17.62	9
2022-06-12	@ San Diego Wave FC	T 1-1	58.7	1532.95	1482.25	36.17%	38.65%	25.17%	+0.20	-1.06	10
2022-06-19	Angel City FC	W 1-0	47.1	1531.89	1437.15	45.09%	36.11%	18.80%	+0.53	+12.96	13
2022-07-02	North Carolina Courage	W 2-0	50.0	1544.85	1515.86	36.08%	38.67%	25.25%	+0.20	+23.03	16
2022-07-11	Portland Thorns	T 2-2	69.9	1567.88	1616.39	25.43%	38.70%	35.86%	-0.19	+1.00	17
2022-07-18	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-1	57.4	1568.88	1494.02	39.54%	37.95%	22.51%	+0.33	-21.73	17
2022-07-31	@ Angel City FC	W 3-2	59.7	1547.15	1451.95	42.32%	37.13%	20.54%	+0.43	+13.98	20
2022-08-03	@ Racing Louisville	T 1-1	58.4	1561.13	1405.99	50.23%	33.70%	16.08%	+0.73	-3.62	21
2022-08-08	Houston Dash	L 1-2	62.6	1557.51	1568.76	30.34%	39.11%	30.55%	+0.00	-18.32	21
2022-08-14	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 4-1	44.8	1539.19	1405.03	50.24%	33.69%	16.07%	+0.73	+19.27	24
2022-08-27	@ Orlando Pride	W 2-1	55.6	1558.46	1465.88	41.97%	37.25%	20.78%	+0.41	+14.11	27
2022-09-10	Chicago Red Stars	T 2-2	67.4	1572.57	1519.83	39.39%	37.99%	22.62%	+0.32	-1.66	28
2022-09-18	@ North Carolina Courage	W 2-1	64.2	1570.91	1581.24	27.58%	38.99%	33.43%	-0.11	+19.46	31
2022-09-22	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 1-0	38.6	1590.37	1310.41	65.45%	23.98%	10.57%	+1.36	+6.43	34
2022-09-25	@ Houston Dash	W 2-0	54.4	1596.80	1572.43	32.43%	39.06%	28.51%	+0.07	+24.93	37
2022-10-02	Orlando Pride	W 3-0	38.4	1621.73	1388.86	62.42%	26.09%	11.49%	+1.23	+12.57	40
2022-05-01	Seattle Reign	W 2-1	60.8	1534.62	1541.11	31.02%	39.11%	29.87%	+0.02	+18.15	3
2022-05-15	Angel City FC	L 0-1	55.7	1552.77	1407.36	51.68%	32.91%	15.41%	+0.79	-26.09	3
2022-05-19	@ Portland Thorns	T 1-1	61.6	1526.68	1567.59	23.88%	38.37%	37.75%	-0.26	+1.35	4
2022-05-23	@ Seattle Reign	T 0-0	55.4	1528.03	1522.62	29.72%	39.10%	31.18%	-0.03	+0.13	5
2022-05-28	@ Orlando Pride	T 2-2	63.6	1528.16	1459.82	38.64%	38.17%	23.19%	+0.29	-1.51	6
2022-06-02	Chicago Red Stars	T 1-1	61.0	1526.65	1554.52	28.04%	39.03%	32.93%	-0.09	+0.46	7
2022-06-05	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	L 0-1	54.3	1527.11	1507.81	31.70%	39.09%	29.21%	+0.04	-18.83	7
2022-06-09	@ Chicago Red Stars	T 0-0	56.8	1508.28	1571.68	21.55%	37.59%	40.86%	-0.37	+1.93	8
2022-06-12	North Carolina Courage	L 2-3	64.5	1510.21	1515.75	31.16%	39.10%	29.73%	+0.03	-18.62	8
2022-06-18	Racing Louisville	T 2-2	61.3	1491.59	1428.16	40.86%	37.59%	21.55%	+0.37	-1.93	9
2022-07-03	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 1-2	56.8	1489.66	1517.92	25.34%	38.69%	35.98%	-0.20	-16.32	9
2022-07-10	Kansas City Current	L 0-1	51.1	1473.34	1475.20	31.69%	39.09%	29.22%	+0.04	-18.82	9
2022-07-17	Orlando Pride	T 0-0	49.4	1454.52	1423.99	36.30%	38.63%	25.07%	+0.21	-1.08	10
2022-07-30	@ North Carolina Courage	T 3-3	66.1	1453.44	1495.85	23.72%	38.32%	37.96%	-0.27	+1.39	11
2022-08-06	@ Racing Louisville	T 1-1	53.4	1454.83	1409.61	35.40%	38.77%	25.83%	+0.18	-0.91	12
2022-08-11	Portland Thorns	L 1-2	54.4	1453.92	1642.86	14.23%	31.26%	54.51%	-0.90	-9.68	12
2022-08-28	@ Houston Dash	T 2-2	65.1	1444.24	1558.30	17.38%	34.99%	47.63%	-0.63	+3.15	13
2022-09-10	San Diego Wave FC	W 4-3	69.3	1447.39	1553.45	19.60%	36.62%	43.79%	-0.48	+23.29	16
2022-09-18	NY/NJ Gotham FC	W 2-0	36.6	1470.68	1325.46	51.65%	32.92%	15.42%	+0.79	+15.05	19
2022-09-22	@ Angel City FC	L 1-2	56.8	1485.73	1457.34	33.00%	39.02%	27.97%	+0.09	-19.31	19
2022-09-25	@ Kansas City Current	L 0-3	44.4	1466.42	1534.19	21.13%	37.41%	41.46%	-0.40	-24.75	19
2022-10-02	Houston Dash	L 1-2	53.8	1441.67	1547.50	19.62%	36.63%	43.76%	-0.48	-13.45	19

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2022-10-17	@ San Diego Wave FC	L 1-2	54.6	1538.35	1542.26	47.92%	0.00%	52.08%	-0.07	-17.60	0-1
2022-10-16	Kansas City Current	L 1-2	57.3	1560.95	1533.86	55.39%	0.00%	44.61%	+0.19	-20.34	0-1
2022-10-16	@ Houston Dash	W 2-1	57.3	1533.86	1560.95	44.61%	0.00%	55.39%	-0.19	+20.34	1-0
2022-10-24	@ Seattle Reign	W 2-0	53.5	1554.20	1634.30	37.25%	0.00%	62.75%	-0.46	+32.59	2-0
2022-10-30	@ Portland Thorns	L 0-2	47.6	1586.79	1645.85	40.12%	0.00%	59.88%	-0.35	-20.83	2-1
2022-10-23	San Diego Wave FC	W 2-1	55.0	1631.76	1559.86	61.65%	0.00%	38.35%	+0.42	+14.09	1-0
2022-10-30	Kansas City Current	W 2-0	47.6	1645.85	1586.79	59.88%	0.00%	40.12%	+0.35	+20.83	2-0
2022-10-17	Chicago Red Stars	W 2-1	54.6	1542.26	1538.35	52.08%	0.00%	47.92%	+0.07	+17.60	1-0
2022-10-23	@ Portland Thorns	L 1-2	55.0	1559.86	1631.76	38.35%	0.00%	61.65%	-0.42	-14.08	1-1
2022-10-24	Kansas City Current	L 0-2	53.5	1634.30	1554.20	62.75%	0.00%	37.25%	+0.46	-32.59	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2022-05-15	15.41%	Angel City FC	1407.36	1	@ Washington Spirit	1552.77	0
2	2022-05-02	15.99%	San Diego Wave FC	1400.00	1	@ Houston Dash	1535.48	0
3	2022-04-30	16.49%	@ Angel City FC	1400.00	2	North Carolina Courage	1548.43	1
4	2022-10-02	16.77%	@ Racing Louisville	1414.90	1	Kansas City Current	1558.95	0
5	2022-07-09	17.25%	@ Orlando Pride	1399.23	1	Houston Dash	1536.10	0
6	2022-05-08	17.38%	@ San Diego Wave FC	1425.65	4	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1560.68	0
7	2022-07-02	17.67%	Kansas City Current	1450.72	2	@ Houston Dash	1560.58	1
8	2022-08-25	17.71%	@ North Carolina Courage	1522.17	3	Portland Thorns	1652.55	1
9	2022-08-28	18.52%	San Diego Wave FC	1519.60	2	@ Portland Thorns	1617.96	0
10	2022-08-15	18.75%	@ Angel City FC	1437.98	1	Chicago Red Stars	1554.41	0
11	2022-09-26	18.75%	Racing Louisville	1381.25	3	@ Angel City FC	1476.65	1
12	2022-09-10	19.60%	@ Washington Spirit	1447.39	4	San Diego Wave FC	1553.45	3
13	2022-07-10	19.64%	@ Angel City FC	1428.69	2	San Diego Wave FC	1534.24	1
14	2022-05-30	19.73%	@ Kansas City Current	1400.05	1	Racing Louisville	1504.58	0
15	2022-08-21	19.75%	@ San Diego Wave FC	1486.79	3	Houston Dash	1591.11	1
16	2022-08-14	19.83%	Orlando Pride	1427.66	1	@ San Diego Wave FC	1509.94	0
17	2022-06-12	19.93%	@ Kansas City Current	1424.52	1	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1526.63	0
18	2022-07-17	21.37%	@ Houston Dash	1511.35	4	Chicago Red Stars	1597.67	1
19	2022-05-19	21.65%	Orlando Pride	1460.74	2	@ North Carolina Courage	1523.14	1
20	2022-05-15	22.07%	@ San Diego Wave FC	1474.99	2	Chicago Red Stars	1554.14	1
21	2022-07-18	22.51%	@ Kansas City Current	1494.02	1	Seattle Reign	1568.88	0
22	2022-07-31	22.81%	San Diego Wave FC	1508.16	1	@ Chicago Red Stars	1559.04	0
23	2022-09-17	23.09%	@ Racing Louisville	1365.25	2	Orlando Pride	1434.56	0
24	2022-05-22	24.49%	Houston Dash	1530.69	2	@ Portland Thorns	1566.24	0
25	2022-06-12	24.87%	Angel City FC	1416.55	3	@ Racing Louisville	1448.77	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-05-08	49.34	@ San Diego Wave FC	4	1425.65	17.38%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1560.68	47.62%	35.00%
2	2022-09-15	41.12	@ Chicago Red Stars	4	1521.48	24.98%	Kansas City Current	0	1573.79	36.40%	38.62%
3	2022-08-21	40.80	@ North Carolina Courage	4	1481.38	25.35%	Chicago Red Stars	0	1530.62	35.97%	38.69%
4	2022-06-13	40.46	Portland Thorns	4	1557.56	25.73%	@ Houston Dash	0	1582.53	35.51%	38.75%
5	2022-07-17	38.63	@ Houston Dash	4	1511.35	21.37%	Chicago Red Stars	1	1597.67	41.11%	37.52%
6	2022-06-19	34.61	San Diego Wave FC	3	1483.31	26.31%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1503.54	34.84%	38.84%
7	2022-08-25	34.59	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1522.17	17.71%	Portland Thorns	1	1652.55	47.01%	35.28%
8	2022-08-28	33.85	San Diego Wave FC	2	1519.60	18.52%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1617.96	45.57%	35.91%
9	2022-09-26	33.65	Racing Louisville	3	1381.25	18.75%	@ Angel City FC	1	1476.65	45.17%	36.07%
10	2022-08-21	32.81	@ San Diego Wave FC	3	1486.79	19.75%	Houston Dash	1	1591.11	43.55%	36.70%
11	2022-06-05	32.60	North Carolina Courage	3	1483.15	29.21%	@ Racing Louisville	0	1481.37	31.70%	39.09%
12	2022-10-24 *	32.59	Kansas City Current	2	1554.20	37.25%	@ Seattle Reign	0	1634.30	62.75%	0.00%
13	2022-09-17	30.32	@ Racing Louisville	2	1365.25	23.09%	Orlando Pride	0	1434.56	38.77%	38.14%
14	2022-08-28	30.01	Chicago Red Stars	4	1489.82	39.53%	@ Racing Louisville	0	1415.04	22.51%	37.96%
15	2022-05-22	29.39	Houston Dash	2	1530.69	24.49%	@ Portland Thorns	0	1566.24	37.00%	38.51%
16	2022-06-04	28.80	@ Houston Dash	5	1557.76	45.31%	Orlando Pride	0	1461.33	18.67%	36.02%
17	2022-05-02	27.07	NY/NJ Gotham FC	3	1533.61	37.84%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1471.03	23.81%	38.35%
18	2022-05-15	26.09	Angel City FC	1	1407.36	15.41%	@ Washington Spirit	0	1552.77	51.68%	32.91%
19	2022-05-02	25.65	San Diego Wave FC	1	1400.00	15.99%	@ Houston Dash	0	1535.48	50.41%	33.60%
20	2022-04-30	25.29	@ Angel City FC	2	1400.00	16.49%	North Carolina Courage	1	1548.43	49.36%	34.15%
21	2022-10-02	25.09	@ Racing Louisville	1	1414.90	16.77%	Kansas City Current	0	1558.95	48.80%	34.43%
22	2022-09-25	24.93	Seattle Reign	2	1596.80	32.43%	@ Houston Dash	0	1572.43	28.51%	39.06%
23	2022-07-09	24.76	@ Orlando Pride	1	1399.23	17.25%	Houston Dash	0	1536.10	47.86%	34.88%
24	2022-09-25	24.76	@ Kansas City Current	3	1534.19	41.46%	Washington Spirit	0	1466.42	21.13%	37.41%
25	2022-05-01	24.68	@ Portland Thorns	3	1544.44	41.57%	Kansas City Current	0	1475.81	21.05%	37.37%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season's games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-08-06	74.6	@ Portland Thorns	3	1646.88	52.56%	North Carolina Courage	3	1494.46	15.03%	32.41%
2	2022-10-02	71.3	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	3	1293.78	8.53%	Portland Thorns	3	1638.60	72.53%	18.95%
3	2022-07-11	69.9	@ Seattle Reign	2	1567.88	25.43%	Portland Thorns	2	1616.39	35.86%	38.70%
4	2022-09-10	69.3	@ Washington Spirit	4	1447.39	19.60%	San Diego Wave FC	3	1553.45	43.79%	36.62%
5	2022-06-19	68.9	Houston Dash	4	1542.07	30.04%	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1534.37	30.85%	39.11%
6	2022-07-11	68.3	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1600.68	46.82%	North Carolina Courage	2	1492.84	17.82%	35.37%
7	2022-09-10	67.4	@ Seattle Reign	2	1572.57	39.39%	Chicago Red Stars	2	1519.83	22.62%	37.99%
8	2022-05-29	67.2	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1555.28	34.59%	Portland Thorns	2	1536.85	26.54%	38.87%
9	2022-08-29	67.0	@ Kansas City Current	3	1547.48	30.62%	North Carolina Courage	2	1556.76	30.26%	39.11%
10	2022-08-14	66.2	Kansas City Current	4	1532.93	33.87%	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1498.48	27.18%	38.95%
11	2022-07-30	66.1	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1495.85	37.96%	Washington Spirit	3	1453.44	23.72%	38.32%
12	2022-06-19	66.0	@ Kansas City Current	2	1447.61	17.51%	Chicago Red Stars	2	1580.74	47.37%	35.11%
13	2022-06-09	65.6	@ San Diego Wave FC	2	1480.47	22.10%	Portland Thorns	2	1559.35	40.09%	37.81%
14	2022-08-28	65.1	@ Houston Dash	2	1558.30	47.63%	Washington Spirit	2	1444.24	17.38%	34.99%
15	2022-08-25	64.8	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1522.17	17.71%	Portland Thorns	1	1652.55	47.01%	35.28%
16	2022-06-12	64.5	North Carolina Courage	3	1515.75	29.73%	@ Washington Spirit	2	1510.21	31.16%	39.10%
17	2022-09-18	64.2	Seattle Reign	2	1570.91	27.58%	@ North Carolina Courage	1	1581.24	33.43%	38.99%
18	2022-05-09	63.6	@ Seattle Reign	2	1522.97	40.62%	Racing Louisville	2	1461.32	21.72%	37.66%
19	2022-05-28	63.6	@ Orlando Pride	2	1459.82	23.19%	Washington Spirit	2	1528.16	38.64%	38.17%
20	2022-09-18	62.9	@ Kansas City Current	1	1532.67	23.15%	Portland Thorns	1	1601.33	38.68%	38.16%
21	2022-09-26	62.9	@ Orlando Pride	2	1385.15	15.80%	San Diego Wave FC	2	1544.95	50.82%	33.38%
22	2022-08-08	62.6	Houston Dash	2	1568.76	30.55%	@ Seattle Reign	1	1557.51	30.34%	39.11%
23	2022-07-02	62.4	Kansas City Current	2	1450.72	17.67%	@ Houston Dash	1	1560.58	47.08%	35.25%
24	2022-08-01	62.4	@ Kansas City Current	2	1515.74	44.54%	Orlando Pride	2	1425.07	19.13%	36.33%
25	2022-07-02	62.2	@ Angel City FC	1	1424.19	13.85%	Portland Thorns	1	1620.88	55.48%	30.67%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-09-25	32.5	@ North Carolina Courage	3	1580.87	67.48%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1303.99	9.98%	22.54%
2	2022-09-18	36.6	@ Washington Spirit	2	1470.68	51.65%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1325.46	15.42%	32.92%
3	2022-10-02	38.4	@ Seattle Reign	3	1621.73	62.42%	Orlando Pride	0	1388.86	11.49%	26.09%
4	2022-09-22	38.6	Seattle Reign	1	1590.37	65.45%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1310.41	10.57%	23.98%
5	2022-09-22	38.9	@ Portland Thorns	3	1599.81	58.99%	Racing Louisville	0	1395.57	12.60%	28.41%
6	2022-09-12	40.2	Kansas City Current	1	1565.78	59.84%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1333.47	12.31%	27.85%
7	2022-09-22	40.3	North Carolina Courage	3	1561.78	50.53%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1404.24	15.93%	33.53%
8	2022-09-04	41.0	North Carolina Courage	1	1538.46	55.34%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1342.88	13.91%	30.76%
9	2022-08-28	41.3	Chicago Red Stars	4	1489.82	39.53%	@ Racing Louisville	0	1415.04	22.51%	37.96%
10	2022-06-04	41.9	@ Portland Thorns	3	1537.61	46.23%	Angel City FC	0	1434.25	18.14%	35.63%
11	2022-09-11	41.9	@ North Carolina Courage	5	1547.87	53.88%	Racing Louisville	1	1385.03	14.48%	31.64%
12	2022-06-19	42.2	@ Portland Thorns	6	1598.02	55.58%	Orlando Pride	0	1421.54	13.81%	30.60%
13	2022-08-08	42.7	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1537.47	47.82%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1421.97	17.28%	34.90%
14	2022-06-04	44.4	@ Houston Dash	5	1557.76	45.31%	Orlando Pride	0	1461.33	18.67%	36.02%
15	2022-09-25	44.4	@ Kansas City Current	3	1534.19	41.46%	Washington Spirit	0	1466.42	21.13%	37.41%
16	2022-10-03	44.4	@ Chicago Red Stars	2	1518.70	42.53%	Angel City FC	0	1443.00	20.40%	37.06%
17	2022-07-17	44.5	@ Portland Thorns	5	1615.39	52.44%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1463.94	15.08%	32.48%
18	2022-08-14	44.8	@ Seattle Reign	4	1539.19	50.24%	NY/NJ Gotham FC	1	1405.03	16.07%	33.69%
19	2022-05-01	45.1	@ Portland Thorns	3	1544.44	41.57%	Kansas City Current	0	1475.81	21.05%	37.37%
20	2022-05-26	45.3	@ Seattle Reign	1	1522.48	47.13%	Kansas City Current	0	1412.27	17.65%	35.23%
21	2022-07-03	45.3	Chicago Red Stars	3	1577.63	44.14%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	0	1468.93	19.38%	36.48%
22	2022-09-17	45.3	@ Racing Louisville	2	1365.25	23.09%	Orlando Pride	0	1434.56	38.77%	38.14%
23	2022-05-02	45.6	NY/NJ Gotham FC	3	1533.61	37.84%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1471.03	23.81%	38.35%
24	2022-08-28	45.6	Angel City FC	3	1464.31	43.26%	@ NY/NJ Gotham FC	1	1362.15	19.93%	36.81%
25	2022-09-10	45.7	Portland Thorns	2	1584.12	47.27%	@ Orlando Pride	0	1451.77	17.57%	35.16%