1994 Tippeligaen Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

49 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

6.20 points above expected

49 points · 42.80 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stromsgodset

8.26 points below expected

15 points · 23.26 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 22 15 4 3 49 70 23 +47 42.80 +6.20
2 Lillestrom 22 12 5 5 41 42 23 +19 37.29 +3.71
3 Viking 22 11 6 5 39 41 26 +15 33.14 +5.86
4 Start 22 9 8 5 35 42 22 +20 30.50 +4.50
5 Kongsvinger 22 11 2 9 35 38 35 +3 32.79 +2.21
6 Brann 22 9 4 9 31 38 46 -8 29.27 +1.73
7 Tromso 22 7 7 8 28 22 28 -6 30.17 -2.17
8 Hamarkameratene 22 7 5 10 26 34 46 -12 27.23 -1.23
9 Valerenga 22 5 7 10 22 32 40 -8 26.60 -4.60
10 Bodo Glimt 22 5 7 10 22 30 46 -16 30.09 -8.09
11 Sogndal 22 6 4 12 22 19 40 -21 22.02 -0.02
12 Stromsgodset 22 4 3 15 15 22 55 -33 23.26 -8.26

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1755 49 42.80 +6.20 88.3% 22 33 39 43 47 52 62
Start 1672 35 30.50 +4.50 80.5% 10 21 26 31 34 40 52
Lillestrom 1669 41 37.29 +3.71 76.4% 15 28 33 37 41 47 61
Viking 1650 39 33.14 +5.86 86.2% 12 24 29 33 37 43 57
Tromso 1539 28 30.17 -2.17 39.2% 10 21 26 30 34 40 56
Kongsvinger 1533 35 32.79 +2.21 67.7% 11 23 29 33 37 43 53
Hamarkameratene 1502 26 27.23 -1.23 45.7% 6 18 23 27 31 37 51
Brann 1487 31 29.27 +1.73 65.1% 7 20 25 29 33 39 54
Valerenga 1474 22 26.60 -4.60 23.8% 8 17 23 27 30 36 48
Bodo Glimt 1459 22 30.09 -8.09 9.5% 10 21 26 30 34 40 53
Sogndal 1404 22 22.02 -0.02 54.7% 4 13 18 22 26 31 48
Stromsgodset 1362 15 23.26 -8.26 8.0% 5 14 19 23 27 33 46

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BG BRA HAM KON LIL ROS SOG STA STR TRO VAL VIK
Bodo Glimt
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.99
0-1-1
2.77
0-0-2
2.02
0-0-2
1.87
0-2-0
3.29
0-1-1
2.66
2-0-0
3.44
0-1-1
2.77
1-1-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.52
Brann
1-0-1
2.70
0-1-1
2.96
0-0-2
3.00
1-0-1
2.32
1-0-1
1.13
2-0-0
3.58
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
2.97
1-1-0
2.56
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.35
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
1.81
1-0-1
1.42
1-0-1
3.29
0-1-1
2.57
1-0-1
3.21
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.30
Kongsvinger
1-1-0
2.77
2-0-0
2.52
1-0-1
3.36
0-0-2
2.60
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
3.93
2-0-0
3.06
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
3.12
0-1-1
2.67
Lillestrom
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
3.73
2-0-0
2.94
0-1-1
2.44
2-0-0
3.99
0-2-0
3.25
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
3.62
1-1-0
3.70
0-1-1
3.03
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.70
1-0-1
4.47
1-0-1
4.13
2-0-0
3.55
1-1-0
3.09
2-0-0
4.29
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.31
1-1-0
3.81
1-1-0
4.10
1-0-1
3.72
Sogndal
0-2-0
2.23
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
1.62
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-2
1.27
0-1-1
1.99
1-0-1
2.66
1-1-0
2.17
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
1.65
Start
1-1-0
2.85
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.95
0-0-2
2.45
0-2-0
2.28
0-1-1
1.77
1-1-0
3.54
1-1-0
3.09
2-0-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
2.42
Stromsgodset
0-0-2
2.07
0-0-2
2.54
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-2
1.66
0-0-2
1.31
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.04
1-1-0
2.04
1-0-1
2.07
Tromso
1-1-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
1.90
0-1-1
1.72
0-1-1
3.35
0-0-2
2.61
1-1-0
3.51
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
2.60
Valerenga
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
1.84
0-1-1
1.48
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.99
0-1-1
3.48
1-0-1
2.26
0-1-1
2.24
Viking
1-1-0
2.98
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.21
1-1-0
2.84
1-1-0
2.49
1-0-1
1.82
1-0-1
3.92
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
3.47
0-1-1
2.90
1-1-0
3.28

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.76 +6.3
Allowed 0.68 -7.2
Differential 0.92 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%5.30%4.92%3.03%3.79%2.27%25.38%
15.30%12.88%4.92%4.55%1.14%1.52%30.30%
24.92%4.92%4.55%4.17%1.52%0.76%20.83%
33.03%4.55%4.17%0.38%12.12%
43.79%1.14%1.52%0.38%6.82%
5+2.27%1.52%0.76%4.55%
Total25.38%30.30%20.83%12.12%6.82%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.63 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.44
CV 0.95 0.95
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%31.82%
118.18%4.55%22.73%
24.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
34.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
4
5+
Total22.73%27.27%9.09%13.64%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.09 -0.73
SD 1.18 1.82 2.27
CV 0.86 0.87
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%13.64%22.73%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.09 -0.36
SD 1.52 2.11 3.17
CV 0.88 1.01
Max 5 9 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
19.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%27.27%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%22.73%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total13.64%22.73%31.82%18.18%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.09 -0.55
SD 1.37 1.54 2.26
CV 0.89 0.74
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
19.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%31.82%22.73%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.59 +0.14
SD 1.55 1.33 2.42
CV 0.90 0.84
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
19.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
39.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total40.91%22.73%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.05 +0.86
SD 1.57 1.05 2.14
CV 0.82 1.00
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
14.55%13.64%4.55%22.73%
24.55%13.64%4.55%9.09%31.82%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+13.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
Total31.82%40.91%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.18 1.05 +2.14
SD 2.28 0.95 2.70
CV 0.72 0.91
Max 9 3 +9
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%36.36%
113.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3
4
5+
Total27.27%22.73%13.64%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.82 -0.95
SD 0.77 1.59 1.84
CV 0.90 0.88
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%31.82%4.55%40.91%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total22.73%59.09%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 1.00 +0.91
SD 1.80 0.76 2.24
CV 0.94 0.76
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%22.73%9.09%36.36%
14.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%13.64%31.82%22.73%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.50 -1.50
SD 1.02 1.92 2.41
CV 1.02 0.77
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%36.36%
14.55%18.18%4.55%9.09%36.36%
213.64%4.55%18.18%
39.09%9.09%
4
5+
Total40.91%31.82%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.27 -0.27
SD 0.98 1.55 2.16
CV 0.98 1.22
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%31.82%
113.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
29.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total18.18%36.36%22.73%9.09%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.82 -0.36
SD 1.34 1.74 2.08
CV 0.92 0.95
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
24.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
34.55%9.09%9.09%22.73%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%36.36%40.91%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.18 +0.68
SD 1.49 0.80 1.46
CV 0.80 0.67
Max 5 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rosenborg 49 42.80 +6.20
2 Viking 39 33.14 +5.86
3 Start 35 30.50 +4.50
4 Lillestrom 41 37.29 +3.71
5 Kongsvinger 35 32.79 +2.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stromsgodset 15 23.26 -8.26
2 Bodo Glimt 22 30.09 -8.09
3 Valerenga 22 26.60 -4.60
4 Tromso 28 30.17 -2.17
5 Hamarkameratene 26 27.23 -1.23

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tromso 4 Apr 27 – May 12 1 in 60
2 Rosenborg 5 Apr 27 – May 16 1 in 38
3 Kongsvinger 3 May 8 – May 16 1 in 24
4 Start 4 Sep 18 – Oct 16 1 in 21
5 Valerenga 2 Aug 7 – Aug 14 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stromsgodset 10 Jul 24 – Sep 25 1 in 460
2 Rosenborg 2 Sep 24 – Oct 2 1 in 49
3 Kongsvinger 3 May 23 – May 29 1 in 36
4 Sogndal 4 Apr 24 – May 8 1 in 27
5 Tromso 3 May 29 – Jul 27 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 13 May 29 – Oct 16 1 in 289
2 Rosenborg 14 Apr 17 – Aug 14 1 in 72
3 Start 5 Apr 24 – May 12 1 in 10
4 Tromso 4 Apr 27 – May 12 1 in 7
5 Lillestrom 5 May 1 – May 23 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 11 Apr 27 – Jul 31 1 in 80
2 Stromsgodset 13 May 23 – Sep 25 1 in 38
3 Tromso 6 May 16 – Jul 27 1 in 21
4 Bodo Glimt 7 May 26 – Aug 14 1 in 19
5 Start 5 May 8 – May 26 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Rosenborg62.19%19.86%8.37%4.45%2.51%1.14%0.64%0.53%0.15%0.10%0.06%
Lillestrom17.22%28.30%17.85%12.49%8.23%5.63%3.95%2.70%1.66%1.28%0.52%0.17%
Viking5.50%12.75%15.77%14.07%12.92%10.78%9.25%6.43%5.06%3.93%2.49%1.05%
Start2.87%6.97%10.53%11.30%12.15%11.99%10.46%9.43%9.17%6.88%5.07%3.18%
Kongsvinger5.17%11.57%13.76%14.31%12.29%10.82%9.42%7.84%6.37%4.08%2.88%1.49%
Brann1.59%4.43%6.76%8.82%10.40%11.61%11.50%11.51%10.85%10.52%7.65%4.36%
Tromso2.03%5.59%8.58%10.21%11.75%11.57%12.13%11.32%10.01%8.04%5.82%2.95%
Hamarkameratene0.80%2.62%4.20%6.28%7.41%8.41%10.77%12.33%12.48%13.58%12.02%9.10%
Valerenga0.57%1.84%3.69%5.19%6.70%8.96%10.49%11.64%13.80%13.44%13.62%10.06%
Bodo Glimt1.90%5.35%8.55%10.05%10.90%11.59%11.07%11.03%10.09%8.97%6.73%3.77%
Sogndal0.05%0.22%0.69%1.26%1.77%3.31%4.52%6.76%9.76%14.40%21.88%35.38%
Stromsgodset0.11%0.50%1.25%1.57%2.97%4.19%5.80%8.48%10.60%14.78%21.26%28.49%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+29.55%
Strong Edge
53.03%23.48%23.48%
Elo Value
Home Edge
132 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0105.81400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.76 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.80+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
62%
Rosenborg, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.59 * Some Luck: 4.59 to 6.89 * Lucky: 6.89 to 9.18 * Wild Swing: 9.18 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.72 * Close: 1.72 to 2.58 * Off: 2.58 to 3.44 * Way Off: 3.44 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.79 points
Some Luck
05.7414
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.155
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
88.29%
Rosenborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
8.00%
Stromsgodset
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.39
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.70
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.56
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.57
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.94
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.055
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rosenborg 99.94% 0.06%
Lillestrom 99.31% 0.69%
Viking 96.46% 3.54%
Kongsvinger 95.63% 4.37%
Start 91.75% 8.25%
Tromso 91.23% 8.77%
Bodo Glimt 89.50% 10.50%
Brann 87.99% 12.01%
Hamarkameratene 78.88% 21.12%
Valerenga 76.32% 23.68%
Stromsgodset 50.25% 49.75%
Sogndal 42.74% 57.26%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1994-04-16 Stromsgodset W 5-1 1520 1526 50.8% 24.2% 24.9% +23.3 3
1994-04-16 @ Brann L 1-5 1526 1520 24.9% 24.2% 50.8% -23.2 0
1994-04-17 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1591 1524 59.1% 23.0% 17.9% -2.6 1
1994-04-17 @ Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1524 1591 17.9% 23.0% 59.1% +2.6 1
1994-04-17 Start W 2-0 1597 1527 59.3% 22.9% 17.7% +10.9 3
1994-04-17 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1527 1597 17.7% 22.9% 59.3% -10.9 0
1994-04-17 Sogndal D 0-0 1546 1491 57.9% 23.2% 18.9% -2.7 1
1994-04-17 @ Tromso D 0-0 1491 1546 18.9% 23.2% 57.9% +2.7 1
1994-04-17 Lillestrom D 0-0 1468 1604 33.4% 24.8% 41.8% +0.5 1
1994-04-17 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1604 1468 41.8% 24.8% 33.4% -0.5 1
1994-04-17 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1566 1547 53.9% 23.9% 22.2% +7.1 3
1994-04-17 @ Viking L 0-1 1547 1566 22.2% 23.9% 53.9% -7.1 0
1994-04-23 Rosenborg D 2-2 1603 1608 51.1% 24.2% 24.7% -1.2 2
1994-04-23 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1608 1603 24.7% 24.2% 51.1% +1.2 4
1994-04-24 Bodo Glimt L 1-3 1539 1588 45.4% 24.7% 29.9% -20.5 0
1994-04-24 @ Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1588 1539 29.9% 24.7% 45.4% +20.5 4
1994-04-24 Tromso W 3-1 1526 1543 49.5% 24.4% 26.1% +13.2 4
1994-04-24 @ Kongsvinger L 1-3 1543 1526 26.1% 24.4% 49.5% -13.2 1
1994-04-24 Valerenga L 0-4 1493 1469 54.5% 23.8% 21.7% -52.6 1
1994-04-24 @ Sogndal W 4-0 1469 1493 21.7% 23.8% 54.5% +52.6 4
1994-04-24 Brann D 1-1 1516 1543 48.3% 24.5% 27.2% -1.2 1
1994-04-24 @ Start D 1-1 1543 1516 27.2% 24.5% 48.3% +1.2 4
1994-04-24 Viking W 1-0 1503 1573 42.6% 24.8% 32.5% +9.7 3
1994-04-24 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1573 1503 32.5% 24.8% 42.6% -9.7 3
1994-04-27 Lillestrom W 3-0 1544 1602 44.3% 24.7% 30.9% +25.5 7
1994-04-27 @ Brann L 0-3 1602 1544 30.9% 24.7% 44.3% -25.5 2
1994-04-27 Sogndal W 1-0 1609 1441 68.2% 20.4% 11.3% +3.7 7
1994-04-27 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1441 1609 11.3% 20.4% 68.2% -3.7 1
1994-04-27 Start D 1-1 1513 1515 51.4% 24.2% 24.4% -1.6 4
1994-04-27 @ Stromsgodset D 1-1 1515 1513 24.4% 24.2% 51.4% +1.6 2
1994-04-27 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1530 1519 53.0% 24.0% 23.0% +13.8 4
1994-04-27 @ Tromso L 0-2 1519 1530 23.0% 24.0% 53.0% -13.8 0
1994-04-27 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1521 1540 49.4% 24.4% 26.2% -13.5 4
1994-04-27 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1540 1521 26.2% 24.4% 49.4% +13.5 7
1994-04-27 Bodo Glimt W 4-2 1563 1609 45.9% 24.7% 29.5% +13.1 6
1994-04-27 @ Viking L 2-4 1609 1563 29.5% 24.7% 45.9% -13.1 4
1994-04-30 Viking W 2-1 1517 1576 44.0% 24.8% 31.2% +8.8 5
1994-04-30 @ Start L 1-2 1576 1517 31.2% 24.8% 44.0% -8.8 6
1994-05-01 Tromso L 0-3 1596 1544 57.5% 23.3% 19.2% -42.2 4
1994-05-01 @ Bodo Glimt W 3-0 1544 1596 19.2% 23.3% 57.5% +42.2 7
1994-05-01 Valerenga D 0-0 1505 1508 51.3% 24.2% 24.5% -1.8 1
1994-05-01 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1508 1505 24.5% 24.2% 51.3% +1.8 5
1994-05-01 Rosenborg L 1-2 1553 1612 44.0% 24.8% 31.2% -11.5 7
1994-05-01 @ Kongsvinger W 2-1 1612 1553 31.2% 24.8% 44.0% +11.5 10
1994-05-01 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1576 1511 58.9% 23.0% 18.1% +9.6 5
1994-05-01 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1511 1576 18.1% 23.0% 58.9% -9.6 4
1994-05-01 Brann L 2-4 1437 1570 33.8% 24.9% 41.4% -14.6 1
1994-05-01 @ Sogndal W 4-2 1570 1437 41.4% 24.9% 33.8% +14.6 10
1994-05-07 Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1509 1554 46.1% 24.6% 29.3% -1.0 6
1994-05-07 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1554 1509 29.3% 24.6% 46.1% +1.0 5
1994-05-08 Kongsvinger L 0-4 1584 1541 56.6% 23.5% 20.0% -54.3 10
1994-05-08 @ Brann W 4-0 1541 1584 20.0% 23.5% 56.6% +54.3 10
1994-05-08 Hamarkameratene W 6-1 1624 1503 64.2% 21.7% 14.1% +16.9 13
1994-05-08 @ Rosenborg L 1-6 1503 1624 14.1% 21.7% 64.2% -16.9 1
1994-05-08 Lillestrom D 1-1 1526 1586 43.9% 24.8% 31.3% -0.7 6
1994-05-08 @ Start D 1-1 1586 1526 31.3% 24.8% 43.9% +0.7 6
1994-05-08 Sogndal W 2-1 1502 1423 60.3% 22.7% 17.0% +5.2 7
1994-05-08 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1423 1502 17.0% 22.7% 60.3% -5.2 1
1994-05-08 Tromso L 0-2 1567 1586 49.4% 24.4% 26.3% -25.4 6
1994-05-08 @ Viking W 2-0 1586 1567 26.3% 24.4% 49.4% +25.4 10
1994-05-12 Rosenborg L 1-2 1555 1641 40.4% 24.9% 34.8% -10.8 5
1994-05-12 @ Bodo Glimt W 2-1 1641 1555 34.8% 24.9% 40.4% +10.8 16
1994-05-12 Brann W 4-1 1487 1530 46.1% 24.6% 29.2% +20.5 4
1994-05-12 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-4 1530 1487 29.2% 24.6% 46.1% -20.5 10
1994-05-12 Stromsgodset W 4-2 1596 1507 61.3% 22.5% 16.2% +7.8 13
1994-05-12 @ Kongsvinger L 2-4 1507 1596 16.2% 22.5% 61.3% -7.8 7
1994-05-12 Viking D 0-0 1587 1542 56.7% 23.4% 19.8% -2.5 7
1994-05-12 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1542 1587 19.8% 23.4% 56.7% +2.5 7
1994-05-12 Start D 1-1 1417 1525 37.3% 24.9% 37.8% +0.0 2
1994-05-12 @ Sogndal D 1-1 1525 1417 37.8% 24.9% 37.3% -0.0 7
1994-05-12 Valerenga W 1-0 1611 1508 62.6% 22.2% 15.2% +5.0 13
1994-05-12 @ Tromso L 0-1 1508 1611 15.2% 22.2% 62.6% -5.0 6
1994-05-16 Bodo Glimt W 4-0 1510 1544 47.4% 24.6% 28.1% +30.8 13
1994-05-16 @ Brann L 0-4 1544 1510 28.1% 24.6% 47.4% -30.8 5
1994-05-16 Sogndal W 3-0 1584 1417 68.1% 20.5% 11.4% +10.2 10
1994-05-16 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1417 1584 11.4% 20.5% 68.1% -10.2 2
1994-05-16 Tromso W 5-0 1652 1616 55.7% 23.6% 20.7% +29.3 19
1994-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 0-5 1616 1652 20.7% 23.6% 55.7% -29.3 13
1994-05-16 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1525 1603 41.4% 24.9% 33.8% -11.6 7
1994-05-16 @ Start W 1-0 1603 1525 33.8% 24.9% 41.4% +11.7 16
1994-05-16 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1499 1507 50.7% 24.3% 25.1% +14.8 10
1994-05-16 @ Stromsgodset L 0-2 1507 1499 25.1% 24.3% 50.7% -14.8 4
1994-05-16 Valerenga W 5-2 1545 1503 56.3% 23.5% 20.2% +13.0 10
1994-05-16 @ Viking L 2-5 1503 1545 20.2% 23.5% 56.3% -13.0 6
1994-05-23 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1513 1514 51.5% 24.2% 24.3% +12.5 8
1994-05-23 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-3 1514 1513 24.3% 24.2% 51.5% -12.5 10
1994-05-23 Start D 1-1 1492 1513 49.1% 24.4% 26.5% -1.3 5
1994-05-23 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1513 1492 26.5% 24.4% 49.1% +1.3 8
1994-05-23 Lillestrom L 0-1 1615 1594 54.1% 23.8% 22.1% -14.6 16
1994-05-23 @ Kongsvinger W 1-0 1594 1615 22.1% 23.8% 54.1% +14.6 13
1994-05-23 Viking W 1-0 1407 1558 31.4% 24.8% 43.8% +12.2 5
1994-05-23 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1558 1407 43.8% 24.8% 31.4% -12.2 10
1994-05-23 Brann L 0-1 1587 1540 57.0% 23.4% 19.7% -15.3 13
1994-05-23 @ Tromso W 1-0 1540 1587 19.7% 23.4% 57.0% +15.3 16
1994-05-23 Rosenborg D 1-1 1490 1681 26.5% 24.4% 49.0% +1.3 7
1994-05-23 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1681 1490 49.0% 24.4% 26.5% -1.3 20
1994-05-26 Valerenga D 1-1 1556 1492 58.8% 23.1% 18.2% -2.5 17
1994-05-26 @ Brann D 1-1 1492 1556 18.2% 23.1% 58.8% +2.5 8
1994-05-26 Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1609 1491 64.0% 21.8% 14.2% -16.0 13
1994-05-26 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1491 1609 14.2% 21.8% 64.0% +16.0 8
1994-05-26 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1419 1601 27.6% 24.5% 47.9% +13.1 8
1994-05-26 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1601 1419 47.9% 24.5% 27.6% -13.1 16
1994-05-26 Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1514 1526 50.3% 24.3% 25.4% -1.5 9
1994-05-26 @ Start D 1-1 1526 1514 25.4% 24.3% 50.3% +1.5 9
1994-05-26 Tromso D 0-0 1501 1572 42.5% 24.8% 32.6% -0.6 11
1994-05-26 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1572 1501 32.6% 24.8% 42.5% +0.6 14
1994-05-26 Rosenborg L 1-2 1545 1680 33.6% 24.9% 41.6% -9.4 10
1994-05-26 @ Viking W 2-1 1680 1545 41.6% 24.9% 33.6% +9.4 23
1994-05-29 Lillestrom L 2-3 1527 1593 43.2% 24.8% 32.0% -10.8 9
1994-05-29 @ Bodo Glimt W 3-2 1593 1527 32.0% 24.8% 43.2% +10.8 16
1994-05-29 Sogndal W 3-2 1507 1433 59.8% 22.8% 17.3% +5.0 11
1994-05-29 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-3 1433 1507 17.3% 22.8% 59.8% -5.1 8
1994-05-29 Start L 0-1 1572 1513 58.3% 23.1% 18.6% -15.6 14
1994-05-29 @ Tromso W 1-0 1513 1572 18.6% 23.1% 58.3% +15.6 12
1994-05-29 Stromsgodset D 2-2 1494 1501 50.9% 24.2% 24.9% -1.2 9
1994-05-29 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1501 1494 24.9% 24.2% 50.9% +1.2 12
1994-05-29 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1536 1587 45.1% 24.7% 30.2% +21.1 13
1994-05-29 @ Viking L 1-4 1587 1536 30.2% 24.7% 45.1% -21.1 16
1994-07-24 Viking L 0-3 1553 1557 51.2% 24.2% 24.6% -38.0 17
1994-07-24 @ Brann W 3-0 1557 1553 24.6% 24.2% 51.2% +38.0 16
1994-07-24 Hamarkameratene W 5-1 1566 1512 57.8% 23.2% 19.0% +18.3 19
1994-07-24 @ Kongsvinger L 1-5 1512 1566 19.0% 23.2% 57.8% -18.3 11
1994-07-24 Tromso W 4-0 1604 1557 57.0% 23.4% 19.7% +22.7 19
1994-07-24 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1557 1604 19.7% 23.4% 57.0% -22.7 14
1994-07-24 Bodo Glimt D 0-0 1427 1516 40.0% 24.9% 35.1% -0.3 9
1994-07-24 @ Sogndal D 0-0 1516 1427 35.1% 24.9% 40.0% +0.3 10
1994-07-24 Valerenga W 3-1 1529 1493 55.7% 23.6% 20.7% +10.9 15
1994-07-24 @ Start L 1-3 1493 1529 20.7% 23.6% 55.7% -10.9 9
1994-07-24 Rosenborg L 0-7 1502 1689 26.9% 24.5% 48.6% -50.5 12
1994-07-24 @ Stromsgodset W 7-0 1689 1502 48.6% 24.5% 26.9% +50.5 26
1994-07-27 Viking D 2-2 1494 1595 38.2% 24.9% 36.9% -0.1 12
1994-07-27 @ Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1595 1494 36.9% 24.9% 38.2% +0.1 17
1994-07-27 Bodo Glimt W 3-2 1585 1517 59.2% 23.0% 17.8% +5.2 22
1994-07-27 @ Kongsvinger L 2-3 1517 1585 17.8% 23.0% 59.2% -5.2 10
1994-07-27 Valerenga W 1-0 1626 1482 66.3% 21.1% 12.6% +4.1 22
1994-07-27 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1482 1626 12.6% 21.1% 66.3% -4.1 9
1994-07-27 Tromso W 2-1 1427 1534 37.4% 24.9% 37.7% +10.2 12
1994-07-27 @ Sogndal L 1-2 1534 1427 37.7% 24.9% 37.4% -10.2 14
1994-07-27 Rosenborg D 1-1 1539 1739 25.5% 24.3% 50.2% +1.5 16
1994-07-27 @ Start D 1-1 1739 1539 50.2% 24.3% 25.5% -1.5 27
1994-07-27 Brann L 0-2 1451 1515 43.5% 24.8% 31.8% -22.8 12
1994-07-27 @ Stromsgodset W 2-0 1515 1451 31.8% 24.8% 43.5% +22.8 20
1994-07-31 Hamarkameratene L 3-4 1511 1494 53.7% 23.9% 22.4% -12.7 10
1994-07-31 @ Bodo Glimt W 4-3 1494 1511 22.4% 23.9% 53.7% +12.7 15
1994-07-31 Start W 1-0 1538 1541 51.3% 24.2% 24.5% +7.7 23
1994-07-31 @ Brann L 0-1 1541 1538 24.5% 24.2% 51.3% -7.7 16
1994-07-31 Lillestrom W 3-1 1738 1631 63.0% 22.1% 14.9% +8.0 30
1994-07-31 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1631 1738 14.9% 22.1% 63.0% -8.0 22
1994-07-31 Kongsvinger W 3-0 1524 1590 43.2% 24.8% 32.0% +26.2 17
1994-07-31 @ Tromso L 0-3 1590 1524 32.0% 24.8% 43.2% -26.2 22
1994-07-31 Sogndal L 0-1 1478 1437 56.3% 23.5% 20.2% -15.1 9
1994-07-31 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1437 1478 20.2% 23.5% 56.3% +15.1 15
1994-07-31 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1595 1429 68.1% 20.5% 11.4% +6.1 20
1994-07-31 @ Viking L 1-3 1429 1595 11.4% 20.5% 68.1% -6.1 12
1994-08-07 Viking D 0-0 1499 1601 38.0% 24.9% 37.1% -0.1 11
1994-08-07 @ Bodo Glimt D 0-0 1601 1499 37.1% 24.9% 38.0% +0.1 21
1994-08-07 Tromso D 1-1 1506 1550 46.1% 24.6% 29.2% -1.0 16
1994-08-07 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1550 1506 29.2% 24.6% 46.1% +1.0 18
1994-08-07 Valerenga L 1-3 1564 1463 62.4% 22.2% 15.4% -27.1 22
1994-08-07 @ Kongsvinger W 3-1 1463 1564 15.4% 22.2% 62.4% +27.0 12
1994-08-07 Brann W 3-1 1623 1546 60.1% 22.8% 17.2% +9.1 25
1994-08-07 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1546 1623 17.2% 22.8% 60.1% -9.2 23
1994-08-07 Rosenborg L 0-3 1452 1746 16.8% 22.7% 60.6% -15.0 15
1994-08-07 @ Sogndal W 3-0 1746 1452 60.6% 22.7% 16.8% +15.0 33
1994-08-07 Stromsgodset W 7-0 1533 1423 63.3% 22.0% 14.7% +29.3 19
1994-08-07 @ Start L 0-7 1423 1533 14.7% 22.0% 63.3% -29.3 12
1994-08-14 Sogndal W 4-0 1537 1437 62.2% 22.3% 15.5% +18.2 26
1994-08-14 @ Brann L 0-4 1437 1537 15.5% 22.3% 62.2% -18.2 15
1994-08-14 Kongsvinger W 4-0 1761 1537 72.5% 18.8% 8.8% +10.1 36
1994-08-14 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1537 1761 8.8% 18.8% 72.5% -10.1 22
1994-08-14 Lillestrom L 0-2 1393 1632 21.5% 23.8% 54.8% -13.0 12
1994-08-14 @ Stromsgodset W 2-0 1632 1393 54.8% 23.8% 21.5% +13.0 28
1994-08-14 Bodo Glimt D 0-0 1551 1499 57.6% 23.3% 19.1% -2.7 19
1994-08-14 @ Tromso D 0-0 1499 1551 19.1% 23.3% 57.6% +2.7 12
1994-08-14 Hamarkameratene W 3-2 1490 1505 49.8% 24.3% 25.9% +7.2 15
1994-08-14 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1505 1490 25.9% 24.3% 49.8% -7.2 16
1994-08-14 Start W 3-2 1601 1562 56.1% 23.5% 20.4% +5.9 24
1994-08-14 @ Viking L 2-3 1562 1601 20.4% 23.5% 56.1% -5.9 19
1994-08-18 Start D 2-2 1645 1557 61.2% 22.5% 16.3% -2.1 29
1994-08-18 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1557 1645 16.3% 22.5% 61.2% +2.1 20
1994-08-21 Valerenga W 3-2 1501 1497 52.1% 24.1% 23.8% +6.7 15
1994-08-21 @ Bodo Glimt L 2-3 1497 1501 23.8% 24.1% 52.1% -6.7 15
1994-08-21 Rosenborg W 3-2 1498 1771 18.4% 23.1% 58.5% +14.0 19
1994-08-21 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-3 1771 1498 58.5% 23.1% 18.4% -14.0 36
1994-08-21 Brann W 4-0 1527 1555 48.1% 24.5% 27.4% +30.2 25
1994-08-21 @ Kongsvinger L 0-4 1555 1527 27.4% 24.5% 48.1% -30.2 26
1994-08-21 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1419 1380 56.1% 23.5% 20.3% +12.4 18
1994-08-21 @ Sogndal L 0-2 1380 1419 20.3% 23.5% 56.1% -12.3 12
1994-08-21 Viking D 1-1 1549 1607 44.1% 24.8% 31.1% -0.8 20
1994-08-21 @ Tromso D 1-1 1607 1549 31.1% 24.8% 44.1% +0.8 25
1994-08-27 Lillestrom W 2-0 1608 1643 47.3% 24.6% 28.1% +16.3 28
1994-08-27 @ Viking L 0-2 1643 1608 28.1% 24.6% 47.3% -16.3 29
1994-08-28 Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1525 1512 53.1% 24.0% 22.9% -1.4 27
1994-08-28 @ Brann D 2-2 1512 1525 22.9% 24.0% 53.1% +1.4 20
1994-08-28 Bodo Glimt W 4-2 1757 1508 74.2% 18.0% 7.8% +3.6 39
1994-08-28 @ Rosenborg L 2-4 1508 1757 7.8% 18.0% 74.2% -3.6 15
1994-08-28 Sogndal W 2-1 1559 1432 64.8% 21.6% 13.7% +4.2 23
1994-08-28 @ Start L 1-2 1432 1559 13.7% 21.6% 64.8% -4.2 18
1994-08-28 Kongsvinger L 2-3 1368 1557 26.7% 24.4% 48.8% -7.4 12
1994-08-28 @ Stromsgodset W 3-2 1557 1368 48.8% 24.4% 26.7% +7.4 28
1994-08-28 Tromso W 4-0 1491 1548 44.4% 24.7% 30.9% +33.3 18
1994-08-28 @ Valerenga L 0-4 1548 1491 30.9% 24.7% 44.4% -33.3 20
1994-08-31 Brann W 3-0 1504 1523 49.3% 24.4% 26.3% +22.3 18
1994-08-31 @ Bodo Glimt L 0-3 1523 1504 26.3% 24.4% 49.3% -22.3 27
1994-08-31 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1513 1361 67.0% 20.9% 12.1% +7.5 23
1994-08-31 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1361 1513 12.1% 20.9% 67.0% -7.5 12
1994-08-31 Start W 2-1 1564 1563 51.8% 24.1% 24.1% +7.1 31
1994-08-31 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1563 1564 24.1% 24.1% 51.8% -7.1 23
1994-08-31 Lillestrom L 1-5 1427 1626 25.6% 24.3% 50.1% -23.8 18
1994-08-31 @ Sogndal W 5-1 1626 1427 50.1% 24.3% 25.6% +23.8 32
1994-08-31 Rosenborg D 1-1 1514 1761 20.8% 23.6% 55.6% +2.1 21
1994-08-31 @ Tromso D 1-1 1761 1514 55.6% 23.6% 20.8% -2.1 40
1994-08-31 Viking D 2-2 1524 1624 38.3% 24.9% 36.8% -0.1 19
1994-08-31 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1624 1524 36.8% 24.9% 38.3% +0.1 29
1994-09-17 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1650 1571 60.3% 22.7% 17.0% +5.2 35
1994-09-17 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1571 1650 17.0% 22.7% 60.3% -5.2 31
1994-09-18 Tromso D 1-1 1501 1517 49.7% 24.4% 25.9% -1.4 28
1994-09-18 @ Brann D 1-1 1517 1501 25.9% 24.4% 49.7% +1.4 22
1994-09-18 Valerenga W 7-2 1759 1524 73.2% 18.4% 8.4% +8.2 43
1994-09-18 @ Rosenborg L 2-7 1524 1759 8.4% 18.4% 73.2% -8.2 19
1994-09-18 Hamarkameratene W 4-0 1556 1521 55.7% 23.6% 20.7% +23.8 26
1994-09-18 @ Start L 0-4 1521 1556 20.7% 23.6% 55.7% -23.8 23
1994-09-18 Bodo Glimt L 0-2 1353 1527 28.5% 24.6% 46.9% -16.5 12
1994-09-18 @ Stromsgodset W 2-0 1527 1353 46.9% 24.6% 28.5% +16.5 21
1994-09-18 Sogndal W 3-1 1624 1404 72.2% 18.9% 8.9% +4.7 32
1994-09-18 @ Viking L 1-3 1404 1624 8.9% 18.9% 72.2% -4.7 18
1994-09-21 Brann W 9-0 1767 1499 75.4% 17.4% 7.2% +17.4 46
1994-09-21 @ Rosenborg L 0-9 1499 1767 7.2% 17.4% 75.4% -17.4 28
1994-09-24 Viking L 1-2 1784 1629 67.2% 20.8% 12.0% -16.7 46
1994-09-24 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1629 1784 12.0% 20.8% 67.2% +16.7 35
1994-09-25 Start L 0-6 1543 1580 47.1% 24.6% 28.3% -67.8 21
1994-09-25 @ Bodo Glimt W 6-0 1580 1543 28.3% 24.6% 47.1% +67.8 29
1994-09-25 Lillestrom L 0-3 1497 1655 30.4% 24.7% 44.9% -25.2 23
1994-09-25 @ Hamarkameratene W 3-0 1655 1497 44.9% 24.7% 30.4% +25.2 38
1994-09-25 Sogndal W 2-0 1566 1399 68.2% 20.5% 11.4% +7.0 34
1994-09-25 @ Kongsvinger L 0-2 1399 1566 11.4% 20.5% 68.2% -7.0 18
1994-09-25 Stromsgodset W 2-1 1518 1337 69.3% 20.1% 10.7% +3.3 25
1994-09-25 @ Tromso L 1-2 1337 1518 10.7% 20.1% 69.3% -3.3 12
1994-09-25 Brann W 3-2 1516 1482 55.5% 23.6% 20.8% +6.0 22
1994-09-25 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1482 1516 20.8% 23.6% 55.5% -6.0 28
1994-10-02 Rosenborg W 3-2 1476 1767 16.9% 22.7% 60.4% +14.4 31
1994-10-02 @ Brann L 2-3 1767 1476 60.4% 22.7% 16.9% -14.4 46
1994-10-02 Viking D 1-1 1573 1646 42.2% 24.8% 32.9% -0.5 35
1994-10-02 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1646 1573 32.9% 24.8% 42.2% +0.5 36
1994-10-02 Bodo Glimt W 5-0 1680 1475 71.1% 19.4% 9.6% +13.6 41
1994-10-02 @ Lillestrom L 0-5 1475 1680 9.6% 19.4% 71.1% -13.7 21
1994-10-02 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1392 1472 41.2% 24.9% 33.9% +9.4 21
1994-10-02 @ Sogndal L 1-2 1472 1392 33.9% 24.9% 41.2% -9.4 23
1994-10-02 Tromso W 3-1 1647 1521 64.7% 21.6% 13.7% +7.4 32
1994-10-02 @ Start L 1-3 1521 1647 13.7% 21.6% 64.7% -7.4 25
1994-10-02 Valerenga W 4-1 1333 1522 26.8% 24.4% 48.8% +30.8 15
1994-10-02 @ Stromsgodset L 1-4 1522 1333 48.8% 24.4% 26.8% -30.8 22
1994-10-16 Sogndal D 1-1 1462 1401 58.4% 23.1% 18.5% -2.5 22
1994-10-16 @ Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1401 1462 18.5% 23.1% 58.4% +2.5 22
1994-10-16 Kongsvinger W 4-0 1463 1573 37.0% 24.9% 38.1% +39.1 26
1994-10-16 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-4 1573 1463 38.1% 24.9% 37.0% -39.1 35
1994-10-16 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1753 1364 82.3% 13.6% 4.1% +1.9 49
1994-10-16 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1364 1753 4.1% 13.6% 82.3% -1.9 15
1994-10-16 Lillestrom W 2-0 1514 1694 27.7% 24.5% 47.7% +24.7 28
1994-10-16 @ Tromso L 0-2 1694 1514 47.7% 24.5% 27.7% -24.7 41
1994-10-16 Start L 0-2 1491 1655 29.7% 24.7% 45.6% -17.0 22
1994-10-16 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1655 1491 45.6% 24.7% 29.7% +17.0 35
1994-10-16 Brann W 3-2 1646 1490 67.2% 20.8% 12.0% +3.5 39
1994-10-16 @ Viking L 2-3 1490 1646 12.0% 20.8% 67.2% -3.5 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1994-09-24 12.01% Viking 1629 2 @ Rosenborg 1784 1
2 1994-05-26 14.23% Hamarkameratene 1491 2 @ Lillestrom 1609 1
3 1994-08-07 15.40% Valerenga 1463 3 @ Kongsvinger 1564 1
4 1994-10-02 16.93% @ Brann 1476 3 Rosenborg 1767 2
5 1994-08-21 18.40% @ Hamarkameratene 1498 3 Rosenborg 1771 2
6 1994-05-29 18.56% Start 1513 1 @ Tromso 1572 0
7 1994-05-01 19.19% Tromso 1544 3 @ Bodo Glimt 1596 0
8 1994-05-23 19.66% Brann 1540 1 @ Tromso 1587 0
9 1994-05-08 19.98% Kongsvinger 1541 4 @ Brann 1584 0
10 1994-07-31 20.19% Sogndal 1437 1 @ Valerenga 1478 0
11 1994-04-24 21.67% Valerenga 1469 4 @ Sogndal 1493 0
12 1994-05-23 22.07% Lillestrom 1594 1 @ Kongsvinger 1615 0
13 1994-07-31 22.37% Hamarkameratene 1494 4 @ Bodo Glimt 1511 3
14 1994-07-24 24.61% Viking 1557 3 @ Brann 1553 0
15 1994-04-27 26.22% Kongsvinger 1540 1 @ Valerenga 1521 0
16 1994-05-08 26.26% Tromso 1586 2 @ Viking 1567 0
17 1994-10-02 26.78% @ Stromsgodset 1333 4 Valerenga 1522 1
18 1994-05-26 27.62% @ Sogndal 1419 1 Kongsvinger 1601 0
19 1994-10-16 27.74% @ Tromso 1514 2 Lillestrom 1694 0
20 1994-09-25 28.33% Start 1580 6 @ Bodo Glimt 1543 0
21 1994-04-24 29.88% Bodo Glimt 1588 3 @ Hamarkameratene 1539 1
22 1994-05-01 31.21% Rosenborg 1612 2 @ Kongsvinger 1553 1
23 1994-05-23 31.45% @ Sogndal 1407 1 Viking 1558 0
24 1994-07-27 31.76% Brann 1515 2 @ Stromsgodset 1451 0
25 1994-05-29 32.04% Lillestrom 1593 3 @ Bodo Glimt 1527 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1994-09-25 67.76 Start 6 1580 28.33% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1543 47.09% 24.58%
2 1994-05-08 54.30 Kongsvinger 4 1541 19.98% @ Brann 0 1584 56.56% 23.46%
3 1994-04-24 52.57 Valerenga 4 1469 21.67% @ Sogndal 0 1493 54.55% 23.78%
4 1994-07-24 50.48 Rosenborg 7 1689 48.60% @ Stromsgodset 0 1502 26.94% 24.46%
5 1994-05-01 42.20 Tromso 3 1544 19.19% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1596 57.52% 23.29%
6 1994-10-16 39.14 @ Hamarkameratene 4 1463 36.95% Kongsvinger 0 1573 38.15% 24.90%
7 1994-07-24 38.05 Viking 3 1557 24.61% @ Brann 0 1553 51.18% 24.21%
8 1994-08-28 33.29 @ Valerenga 4 1491 44.35% Tromso 0 1548 30.91% 24.74%
9 1994-05-16 30.82 @ Brann 4 1510 47.37% Bodo Glimt 0 1544 28.08% 24.56%
10 1994-10-02 30.78 @ Stromsgodset 4 1333 26.78% Valerenga 1 1522 48.77% 24.45%
11 1994-08-21 30.17 @ Kongsvinger 4 1527 48.15% Brann 0 1555 27.35% 24.50%
12 1994-05-16 29.32 @ Rosenborg 5 1652 55.70% Tromso 0 1616 20.70% 23.60%
13 1994-08-07 29.27 @ Start 7 1533 63.32% Stromsgodset 0 1423 14.71% 21.97%
14 1994-08-07 27.05 Valerenga 3 1463 15.40% @ Kongsvinger 1 1564 62.38% 22.22%
15 1994-07-31 26.22 @ Tromso 3 1524 43.16% Kongsvinger 0 1590 32.05% 24.80%
16 1994-04-27 25.50 @ Brann 3 1544 44.31% Lillestrom 0 1602 30.94% 24.74%
17 1994-05-08 25.39 Tromso 2 1586 26.26% @ Viking 0 1567 49.35% 24.39%
18 1994-09-25 25.17 Lillestrom 3 1655 44.85% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1497 30.44% 24.72%
19 1994-10-16 24.68 @ Tromso 2 1514 27.74% Lillestrom 0 1694 47.73% 24.53%
20 1994-09-18 23.81 @ Start 4 1556 55.66% Hamarkameratene 0 1521 20.73% 23.61%
21 1994-08-31 23.80 Lillestrom 5 1626 50.08% @ Sogndal 1 1427 25.59% 24.32%
22 1994-04-16 23.26 @ Brann 5 1520 50.85% Stromsgodset 1 1526 24.90% 24.25%
23 1994-07-27 22.84 Brann 2 1515 31.76% @ Stromsgodset 0 1451 43.46% 24.78%
24 1994-07-24 22.70 @ Lillestrom 4 1604 56.96% Tromso 0 1557 19.65% 23.39%
25 1994-08-31 22.34 @ Bodo Glimt 3 1504 49.34% Brann 0 1523 26.27% 24.40%