1993 Tippeligaen Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

47 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

10.20 points above expected

47 points · 36.80 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Start

9.62 points below expected

23 points · 32.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rosenborg	22	14	5	3	47	47	30	+17	36.80	+10.20
2	Bodo Glimt	22	14	3	5	45	51	24	+27	35.11	+9.89
3	Lillestrom	22	13	3	6	42	47	26	+21	36.84	+5.16
4	Viking	22	13	2	7	41	38	27	+11	33.38	+7.62
5	Hamarkameratene	22	10	3	9	33	42	39	+3	29.20	+3.80
6	Tromso	22	6	8	8	26	25	25	0	27.18	-1.18
7	Brann	22	7	5	10	26	31	38	-7	30.72	-4.72
8	Kongsvinger	22	7	4	11	25	33	41	-8	29.05	-4.05
9	Start	22	6	5	11	23	26	29	-3	32.62	-9.62
10	Molde	22	5	7	10	22	23	36	-13	25.89	-3.89
11	Lyn Oslo	22	6	4	12	22	39	53	-14	26.14	-4.14
12	Fyllingen	22	4	5	13	17	21	55	-34	25.32	-8.32

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Lillestrom	1461	42	36.84	+5.16	82.3%	13	27	33	37	41	47	58
Rosenborg	1457	47	36.80	+10.20	96.4%	15	27	33	37	41	47	57
Bodo Glimt	1429	45	35.11	+9.89	96.2%	14	25	31	35	39	45	58
Viking	1377	41	33.38	+7.62	91.1%	14	23	29	33	37	43	56
Hamarkameratene	1323	33	29.20	+3.80	76.5%	7	19	25	29	33	39	52
Tromso	1297	26	27.18	-1.18	45.6%	7	18	23	27	31	37	48
Kongsvinger	1258	25	29.05	-4.05	26.9%	10	19	25	29	33	39	51
Brann	1252	26	30.72	-4.72	24.0%	10	21	27	31	35	41	52
Start	1242	23	32.62	-9.62	6.3%	9	23	29	33	37	42	53
Molde	1226	22	25.89	-3.89	28.6%	6	16	22	26	30	36	51
Lyn Oslo	1209	22	26.14	-4.14	26.9%	4	17	22	26	30	36	49
Fyllingen	1098	17	25.32	-8.32	8.5%	6	16	21	25	29	35	47

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BG	BRA	FYL	HAM	KON	LIL	LO	MOL	ROS	STA	TRO	VIK
Bodo Glimt	—	2-0-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.12	1-0-1 3.14	2-0-0 3.72	0-0-2 2.96	2-0-0 3.82	2-0-0 3.17	0-1-1 2.71	2-0-0 3.07	1-1-0 3.15	1-0-1 3.04
Brann	0-0-2 2.30	—	2-0-0 3.41	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.26	0-0-2 3.60	0-1-1 3.11	1-0-1 2.05	1-1-0 2.61	0-2-0 3.13	0-0-2 2.57
Fyllingen	0-1-1 2.48	0-0-2 2.18	—	0-0-2 2.12	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 1.78	0-1-1 2.63	1-1-0 2.72	0-0-2 2.10	1-0-1 2.15	0-2-0 2.30	1-0-1 2.43
Hamarkameratene	1-0-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.67	2-0-0 3.47	—	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.08	2-0-0 2.42	0-2-0 3.00	0-0-2 2.29	1-0-1 2.39	1-0-1 3.03	0-1-1 2.50
Kongsvinger	0-0-2 1.87	0-1-1 2.72	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 2.61	—	0-0-2 2.45	1-1-0 3.02	0-2-0 3.00	1-0-1 2.38	1-0-1 2.30	0-0-2 3.10	2-0-0 2.50
Lillestrom	2-0-0 2.62	1-0-1 3.31	2-0-0 3.81	1-0-1 3.50	2-0-0 3.12	—	1-1-0 3.47	1-1-0 3.89	0-1-1 2.97	1-0-1 3.48	1-0-1 3.75	1-0-1 2.88
Lyn Oslo	0-0-2 1.76	2-0-0 1.99	1-1-0 2.95	0-0-2 3.15	0-1-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.10	—	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 2.11	0-1-1 2.18	2-0-0 2.84	0-0-2 1.70
Molde	0-0-2 2.43	1-1-0 2.47	0-1-1 2.85	0-2-0 2.57	0-2-0 2.57	0-1-1 1.69	1-0-1 2.68	—	0-0-2 1.82	1-0-1 2.22	1-0-1 2.52	1-0-1 2.08
Rosenborg	1-1-0 2.87	1-0-1 3.53	2-0-0 3.50	2-0-0 3.29	1-0-1 3.21	1-1-0 2.60	2-0-0 3.48	2-0-0 3.79	—	1-1-0 3.39	1-1-0 3.79	0-1-1 3.32
Start	0-0-2 2.50	0-1-1 2.97	1-0-1 3.42	1-0-1 3.18	1-0-1 3.27	1-0-1 2.09	1-1-0 3.40	1-0-1 3.36	0-1-1 2.21	—	0-2-0 3.35	0-0-2 2.71
Tromso	0-1-1 2.44	0-2-0 2.44	0-2-0 3.28	1-0-1 2.54	2-0-0 2.48	1-0-1 1.84	0-0-2 2.73	1-0-1 3.06	0-1-1 1.79	0-2-0 2.23	—	1-0-1 2.25
Viking	1-0-1 2.54	2-0-0 3.02	1-0-1 3.16	1-1-0 3.08	0-0-2 3.08	1-0-1 2.69	2-0-0 3.89	1-0-1 3.50	1-1-0 2.25	2-0-0 2.87	1-0-1 3.32	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.75	+8.8
Allowed	0.46	-6.7
Differential	0.87	+5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	6.06%	6.06%	4.17%	1.52%	1.52%	27.65%
1	6.06%	8.33%	7.95%	1.89%	1.52%	2.27%	28.03%
2	6.06%	7.95%	3.03%	3.03%	1.52%	—	21.59%
3	4.17%	1.89%	3.03%	0.76%	0.38%	1.89%	12.12%
4	1.52%	1.52%	1.52%	0.38%	—	—	4.92%
5+	1.52%	2.27%	—	1.89%	—	—	5.68%
Total	27.65%	28.03%	21.59%	12.12%	4.92%	5.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.60	1.60	+0.00
SD	1.56	1.56	2.27
CV	0.97	0.97	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	18.18%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.32	1.09	+1.23
SD	1.78	1.23	2.27
CV	0.77	1.13	—
Max	8	5	+8
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	—	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	36.36%	27.27%	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.73	-0.32
SD	1.53	1.67	2.25
CV	1.09	0.97	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	45.45%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.95	2.50	-1.55
SD	1.25	2.15	2.52
CV	1.31	0.86	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	31.82%	18.18%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.77	+0.14
SD	1.72	1.80	2.78
CV	0.90	1.01	—
Max	6	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	22.73%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.86	-0.36
SD	1.50	1.52	2.36
CV	1.00	0.82	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	—	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
2	13.64%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	31.82%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.18	+0.95
SD	1.32	1.14	1.59
CV	0.62	0.96	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	27.27%
1	—	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
Total	18.18%	18.18%	22.73%	22.73%	4.55%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	2.41	-0.64
SD	1.88	2.11	2.90
CV	1.06	0.88	—
Max	7	8	+4
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	45.45%
1	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	27.27%	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.64	-0.59
SD	1.46	1.36	1.71
CV	1.40	0.83	—
Max	6	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
2	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	22.73%	40.91%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.36	+0.77
SD	1.49	1.09	1.93
CV	0.70	0.80	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	22.73%	—	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
1	—	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	36.36%	22.73%	9.09%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.32	-0.14
SD	1.37	1.25	2.01
CV	1.16	0.95	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.73%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	45.45%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
2	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	36.36%	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.14	+0.00
SD	1.39	1.08	1.57
CV	1.22	0.95	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
1	27.27%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	45.45%
2	13.64%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	40.91%	22.73%	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.73	1.23	+0.50
SD	1.45	1.31	1.92
CV	0.84	1.06	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rosenborg	47	36.80	+10.20
2	Bodo Glimt	45	35.11	+9.89
3	Viking	41	33.38	+7.62
4	Lillestrom	42	36.84	+5.16
5	Hamarkameratene	33	29.20	+3.80

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Start	23	32.62	-9.62
2	Fyllingen	17	25.32	-8.32
3	Brann	26	30.72	-4.72
4	Lyn Oslo	22	26.14	-4.14
5	Kongsvinger	25	29.05	-4.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hamarkameratene	6	Jun 16 – Jul 25	1 in 403
2	Rosenborg	5	Aug 29 – Oct 3	1 in 30
3	Kongsvinger	3	Jul 25 – Aug 8	1 in 27
4	Bodo Glimt	5	Aug 15 – Sep 12	1 in 22
5	Viking	4	Sep 12 – Oct 17	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hamarkameratene	4	Sep 4 – Oct 3	1 in 70
2	Kongsvinger	4	Aug 15 – Sep 5	1 in 42
3	Lyn Oslo	5	Jun 16 – Jul 4	1 in 32
4	Viking	3	Jul 25 – Aug 8	1 in 29
5	Brann	4	Jul 18 – Aug 8	1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rosenborg	18	May 23 – Oct 3	1 in 731
2	Hamarkameratene	8	Jun 16 – Aug 8	1 in 64
3	Bodo Glimt	5	May 1 – May 23	1 in 22
4	Tromso	5	Sep 5 – Oct 17	1 in 15
5	Viking	4	Jun 20 – Jul 18	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Start	7	Aug 22 – Oct 17	1 in 34
2	Kongsvinger	7	May 23 – Jul 4	1 in 33
3	Tromso	6	Jun 20 – Aug 1	1 in 18
4	Fyllingen	8	Aug 15 – Oct 17	1 in 17
5	Molde	6	May 2 – Jun 13	1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Rosenborg	24.75%	19.34%	15.64%	10.56%	8.64%	6.55%	5.19%	3.93%	2.27%	1.84%	0.83%	0.46%
Bodo Glimt	18.10%	16.80%	14.25%	11.97%	9.75%	8.23%	6.50%	5.43%	3.93%	2.48%	1.65%	0.91%
Lillestrom	25.79%	19.04%	14.65%	11.43%	8.56%	6.51%	4.40%	3.57%	2.73%	1.68%	1.12%	0.52%
Viking	10.49%	11.83%	12.75%	12.72%	11.57%	10.10%	8.36%	6.81%	5.74%	4.64%	3.23%	1.76%
Hamarkameratene	2.83%	4.69%	6.39%	8.10%	9.89%	9.49%	10.78%	10.80%	10.68%	10.35%	8.98%	7.02%
Tromso	1.11%	2.70%	3.58%	5.68%	7.02%	8.67%	10.05%	10.71%	12.28%	12.53%	13.04%	12.63%
Brann	4.62%	6.43%	8.14%	10.38%	9.68%	10.48%	10.86%	10.73%	8.82%	8.19%	6.68%	4.99%
Kongsvinger	2.52%	4.10%	5.95%	7.05%	8.85%	10.14%	10.46%	11.21%	11.71%	10.75%	9.37%	7.89%
Start	7.60%	10.41%	11.23%	11.54%	12.09%	10.95%	9.06%	7.40%	7.03%	6.00%	3.93%	2.76%
Molde	0.88%	1.68%	2.49%	3.59%	4.97%	6.45%	8.20%	9.71%	11.90%	13.87%	17.07%	19.19%
Lyn Oslo	0.78%	1.54%	2.75%	4.16%	4.99%	7.03%	8.40%	10.46%	12.03%	13.52%	16.35%	17.99%
Fyllingen	0.53%	1.44%	2.18%	2.82%	3.99%	5.40%	7.74%	9.24%	10.88%	14.15%	17.75%	23.88%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+28.03%

Strong Edge

53.79%20.45%25.76%

Elo Value

Home Edge

149 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0100.07400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.69 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.67+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.5

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

25%

Rosenborg, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Photo Finish

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.73 * Some Luck: 4.73 to 7.09 * Lucky: 7.09 to 9.46 * Wild Swing: 9.46 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.99 * Close: 1.99 to 2.98 * Off: 2.98 to 3.98 * Way Off: 3.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.68 points

Some Luck

05.9115

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

Pinpoint

02.495

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

96.38%

Rosenborg

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

6.33%

Start

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.47

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

71%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

Strong Edge

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

55%

Very Frequent

0%49%100%

Blowouts

Expected

23%

Very Frequent

0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.58

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.27

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

-0.06

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.77

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.99

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.111

Well Within Noise

00.1340.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Rosenborg	96.87%	1.84%	1.29%
Lillestrom	96.68%	1.68%	1.64%
Bodo Glimt	94.96%	2.48%	2.56%
Viking	90.37%	4.64%	4.99%
Start	87.31%	6.00%	6.69%
Brann	80.14%	8.19%	11.67%
Hamarkameratene	73.65%	10.35%	16.00%
Kongsvinger	71.99%	10.75%	17.26%
Tromso	61.80%	12.53%	25.67%
Lyn Oslo	52.14%	13.52%	34.34%
Molde	49.87%	13.87%	36.26%
Fyllingen	44.22%	14.15%	41.63%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1993-05-01	Bodo Glimt	D 1-1	1276	1261	54.8%	21.1%	24.0%	-2.1	1
1993-05-01	@ Tromso	D 1-1	1261	1276	24.0%	21.1%	54.8%	+2.1	1
1993-05-02	Hamarkameratene	W 2-1	1295	1262	56.8%	21.0%	22.3%	+7.1	3
1993-05-02	@ Brann	L 1-2	1262	1295	22.3%	21.0%	56.8%	-7.1	0
1993-05-02	Rosenborg	L 0-1	1302	1374	43.5%	21.7%	34.8%	-13.2	0
1993-05-02	@ Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	1374	1302	34.8%	21.7%	43.5%	+13.2	3
1993-05-02	Fyllingen	D 1-1	1296	1299	52.7%	21.3%	26.0%	-1.8	1
1993-05-02	@ Molde	D 1-1	1299	1296	26.0%	21.3%	52.7%	+1.8	1
1993-05-02	Kongsvinger	W 3-0	1315	1318	52.6%	21.3%	26.1%	+23.8	3
1993-05-02	@ Start	L 0-3	1318	1315	26.1%	21.3%	52.6%	-23.8	0
1993-05-02	Lillestrom	W 1-0	1295	1336	47.9%	21.5%	30.6%	+9.9	3
1993-05-02	@ Viking	L 0-1	1336	1295	30.6%	21.5%	47.9%	-9.9	0
1993-05-08	Brann	L 0-4	1388	1302	62.1%	20.3%	17.5%	-64.8	3
1993-05-08	@ Rosenborg	W 4-0	1302	1388	17.5%	20.3%	62.1%	+64.8	6
1993-05-09	Bodo Glimt	D 0-0	1300	1263	57.3%	20.9%	21.8%	-2.7	2
1993-05-09	@ Fyllingen	D 0-0	1263	1300	21.8%	20.9%	57.3%	+2.7	2
1993-05-09	Molde	D 1-1	1255	1295	48.0%	21.5%	30.5%	-1.2	1
1993-05-09	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1295	1255	30.5%	21.5%	48.0%	+1.1	2
1993-05-09	Viking	W 1-0	1294	1305	51.7%	21.3%	27.0%	+8.9	3
1993-05-09	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-1	1305	1294	27.0%	21.3%	51.7%	-9.0	3
1993-05-09	Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	1326	1288	57.2%	20.9%	21.8%	+14.0	3
1993-05-09	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	1288	1326	21.8%	20.9%	57.2%	-14.0	0
1993-05-09	Start	D 0-0	1274	1339	44.7%	21.6%	33.7%	-0.8	2
1993-05-09	@ Tromso	D 0-0	1339	1274	33.7%	21.6%	44.7%	+0.8	4
1993-05-16	Hamarkameratene	W 3-0	1265	1254	54.3%	21.2%	24.5%	+22.6	5
1993-05-16	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-3	1254	1265	24.5%	21.2%	54.3%	-22.6	1
1993-05-16	Molde	D 1-1	1367	1296	60.8%	20.5%	18.7%	-2.9	7
1993-05-16	@ Brann	D 1-1	1296	1367	18.7%	20.5%	60.8%	+2.9	3
1993-05-16	Kongsvinger	D 1-1	1274	1303	49.4%	21.5%	29.1%	-1.3	1
1993-05-16	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	1303	1274	29.1%	21.5%	49.4%	+1.3	4
1993-05-16	Fyllingen	W 4-1	1340	1298	57.8%	20.9%	21.4%	+16.9	7
1993-05-16	@ Start	L 1-4	1298	1340	21.4%	20.9%	57.8%	-16.9	2
1993-05-16	Tromso	W 2-1	1296	1273	55.6%	21.1%	23.3%	+7.4	6
1993-05-16	@ Viking	L 1-2	1273	1296	23.3%	21.1%	55.6%	-7.4	2
1993-05-20	Viking	W 2-1	1281	1304	50.1%	21.4%	28.4%	+8.8	5
1993-05-20	@ Fyllingen	L 1-2	1304	1281	28.4%	21.4%	50.1%	-8.8	6
1993-05-20	Start	W 1-0	1231	1356	36.1%	21.7%	42.2%	+12.9	4
1993-05-20	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1356	1231	42.2%	21.7%	36.1%	-12.9	7
1993-05-20	Rosenborg	W 3-0	1305	1323	50.7%	21.4%	27.8%	+25.1	7
1993-05-20	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-3	1323	1305	27.8%	21.4%	50.7%	-25.2	3
1993-05-20	Brann	W 2-1	1340	1364	49.9%	21.4%	28.6%	+8.9	6
1993-05-20	@ Lillestrom	L 1-2	1364	1340	28.6%	21.4%	49.9%	-8.9	7
1993-05-20	Bodo Glimt	L 0-2	1299	1288	54.3%	21.2%	24.6%	-30.1	3
1993-05-20	@ Molde	W 2-0	1288	1299	24.6%	21.2%	54.3%	+30.1	8
1993-05-20	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1266	1273	52.1%	21.3%	26.6%	-29.0	2
1993-05-20	@ Tromso	W 2-0	1273	1266	26.6%	21.3%	52.1%	+29.0	4
1993-05-23	Brann	W 2-1	1318	1356	48.3%	21.5%	30.2%	+9.3	11
1993-05-23	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-2	1356	1318	30.2%	21.5%	48.3%	-9.3	7
1993-05-23	Kongsvinger	W 3-0	1349	1330	55.2%	21.1%	23.7%	+21.9	9
1993-05-23	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	1330	1349	23.7%	21.1%	55.2%	-21.9	7
1993-05-23	Fyllingen	W 3-0	1302	1290	54.5%	21.2%	24.4%	+22.5	7
1993-05-23	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-3	1290	1302	24.4%	21.2%	54.5%	-22.5	5
1993-05-23	Tromso	W 4-2	1298	1237	59.7%	20.6%	19.6%	+9.9	6
1993-05-23	@ Rosenborg	L 2-4	1237	1298	19.6%	20.6%	59.7%	-9.9	2
1993-05-23	Molde	W 4-0	1344	1269	61.1%	20.5%	18.4%	+22.8	10
1993-05-23	@ Start	L 0-4	1269	1344	18.4%	20.5%	61.1%	-22.8	3
1993-05-23	Hamarkameratene	W 7-1	1295	1244	58.7%	20.8%	20.6%	+30.5	9
1993-05-23	@ Viking	L 1-7	1244	1295	20.6%	20.8%	58.7%	-30.5	4
1993-06-04	Lillestrom	D 1-1	1308	1371	44.9%	21.6%	33.5%	-0.7	7
1993-06-04	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1371	1308	33.5%	21.6%	44.9%	+0.7	10
1993-06-13	Start	W 2-1	1346	1366	50.5%	21.4%	28.1%	+8.7	10
1993-06-13	@ Brann	L 1-2	1366	1346	28.1%	21.4%	50.5%	-8.7	10
1993-06-13	Tromso	L 2-4	1308	1227	61.7%	20.4%	17.9%	-26.3	7
1993-06-13	@ Kongsvinger	W 4-2	1227	1308	17.9%	20.4%	61.7%	+26.3	5
1993-06-13	Fyllingen	W 3-1	1371	1267	63.9%	20.1%	16.1%	+9.2	13
1993-06-13	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	1267	1371	16.1%	20.1%	63.9%	-9.2	5
1993-06-13	Molde	W 5-3	1325	1246	61.5%	20.4%	18.1%	+8.7	10
1993-06-13	@ Lyn Oslo	L 3-5	1246	1325	18.1%	20.4%	61.5%	-8.7	3
1993-06-13	Hamarkameratene	W 3-2	1307	1214	62.9%	20.2%	16.9%	+5.3	10
1993-06-13	@ Rosenborg	L 2-3	1214	1307	16.9%	20.2%	62.9%	-5.3	4
1993-06-13	Bodo Glimt	W 3-1	1325	1327	52.8%	21.3%	26.0%	+14.1	12
1993-06-13	@ Viking	L 1-3	1327	1325	26.0%	21.3%	52.8%	-14.1	11
1993-06-16	Start	W 2-1	1313	1358	47.3%	21.6%	31.1%	+9.5	14
1993-06-16	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-2	1358	1313	31.1%	21.6%	47.3%	-9.5	10
1993-06-16	Rosenborg	L 0-4	1258	1312	46.1%	21.6%	32.3%	-49.5	5
1993-06-16	@ Fyllingen	W 4-0	1312	1258	32.3%	21.6%	46.1%	+49.5	13
1993-06-16	Lyn Oslo	W 3-1	1209	1333	36.2%	21.7%	42.1%	+21.0	7
1993-06-16	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-3	1333	1209	42.1%	21.7%	36.2%	-21.0	10
1993-06-16	Viking	W 3-2	1237	1340	39.4%	21.7%	39.0%	+10.8	6
1993-06-16	@ Molde	L 2-3	1340	1237	39.0%	21.7%	39.4%	-10.8	12
1993-06-16	Lillestrom	W 2-1	1253	1381	35.9%	21.7%	42.5%	+12.2	8
1993-06-16	@ Tromso	L 1-2	1381	1253	42.5%	21.7%	35.9%	-12.2	13
1993-06-17	Kongsvinger	D 0-0	1355	1282	61.0%	20.5%	18.5%	-3.3	11
1993-06-17	@ Brann	D 0-0	1282	1355	18.5%	20.5%	61.0%	+3.3	8
1993-06-20	Lyn Oslo	W 8-0	1323	1312	54.2%	21.2%	24.6%	+56.9	17
1993-06-20	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-8	1312	1323	24.6%	21.2%	54.2%	-57.0	10
1993-06-20	Kongsvinger	W 5-3	1208	1285	43.0%	21.7%	35.3%	+15.4	8
1993-06-20	@ Fyllingen	L 3-5	1285	1208	35.3%	21.7%	43.0%	-15.4	8
1993-06-20	Lillestrom	W 4-3	1229	1368	34.3%	21.6%	44.1%	+11.6	10
1993-06-20	@ Hamarkameratene	L 3-4	1368	1229	44.1%	21.6%	34.3%	-11.6	13
1993-06-20	Rosenborg	L 0-2	1248	1362	37.7%	21.7%	40.6%	-22.2	6
1993-06-20	@ Molde	W 2-0	1362	1248	40.6%	21.7%	37.7%	+22.2	16
1993-06-20	Viking	L 0-1	1348	1329	55.2%	21.1%	23.6%	-16.2	10
1993-06-20	@ Start	W 1-0	1329	1348	23.6%	21.1%	55.2%	+16.2	15
1993-06-20	Brann	D 1-1	1266	1352	41.7%	21.7%	36.6%	-0.3	9
1993-06-20	@ Tromso	D 1-1	1352	1266	36.6%	21.7%	41.7%	+0.3	12
1993-06-27	Viking	L 0-2	1352	1345	53.8%	21.2%	25.0%	-29.9	12
1993-06-27	@ Brann	W 2-0	1345	1352	25.0%	21.2%	53.8%	+29.9	18
1993-06-27	Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	1270	1241	56.3%	21.0%	22.7%	-15.6	8
1993-06-27	@ Kongsvinger	W 2-1	1241	1270	22.7%	21.0%	56.3%	+15.6	13
1993-06-27	Molde	W 3-0	1357	1226	66.2%	19.6%	14.2%	+13.6	16
1993-06-27	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	1226	1357	14.2%	19.6%	66.2%	-13.6	6
1993-06-27	Start	L 1-3	1255	1332	43.0%	21.7%	35.3%	-21.3	10
1993-06-27	@ Lyn Oslo	W 3-1	1332	1255	35.3%	21.7%	43.0%	+21.3	13
1993-06-27	Bodo Glimt	D 2-2	1384	1380	53.5%	21.2%	25.3%	-1.4	17
1993-06-27	@ Rosenborg	D 2-2	1380	1384	25.3%	21.2%	53.5%	+1.4	18
1993-06-27	Fyllingen	D 0-0	1265	1224	57.7%	20.9%	21.4%	-2.8	10
1993-06-27	@ Tromso	D 0-0	1224	1265	21.4%	20.9%	57.7%	+2.8	9
1993-06-30	Bodo Glimt	L 0-1	1254	1381	35.9%	21.7%	42.5%	-11.3	8
1993-06-30	@ Kongsvinger	W 1-0	1381	1254	42.5%	21.7%	35.9%	+11.3	21
1993-06-30	Start	L 1-2	1370	1353	55.0%	21.1%	23.9%	-15.2	16
1993-06-30	@ Lillestrom	W 2-1	1353	1370	23.9%	21.1%	55.0%	+15.2	16
1993-06-30	Lyn Oslo	W 4-2	1382	1234	67.6%	19.3%	13.0%	+6.7	20
1993-06-30	@ Rosenborg	L 2-4	1234	1382	13.0%	19.3%	67.6%	-6.7	10
1993-07-04	Lillestrom	L 1-2	1392	1355	57.2%	20.9%	21.9%	-15.8	21
1993-07-04	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-1	1355	1392	21.9%	20.9%	57.2%	+15.8	19
1993-07-04	Fyllingen	W 3-2	1322	1227	63.1%	20.2%	16.7%	+5.2	15
1993-07-04	@ Brann	L 2-3	1227	1322	16.7%	20.2%	63.1%	-5.2	9
1993-07-04	Tromso	W 2-0	1257	1262	52.3%	21.3%	26.4%	+16.6	16
1993-07-04	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	1262	1257	26.4%	21.3%	52.3%	-16.6	10
1993-07-04	Kongsvinger	D 1-1	1212	1243	49.2%	21.5%	29.3%	-1.3	7
1993-07-04	@ Molde	D 1-1	1243	1212	29.3%	21.5%	49.2%	+1.3	9
1993-07-04	Rosenborg	D 2-2	1369	1389	50.4%	21.4%	28.1%	-1.1	17
1993-07-04	@ Start	D 2-2	1389	1369	28.1%	21.4%	50.4%	+1.1	21
1993-07-04	Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	1375	1227	67.6%	19.4%	13.1%	+8.7	21
1993-07-04	@ Viking	L 0-2	1227	1375	13.1%	19.4%	67.6%	-8.7	10
1993-07-18	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1221	1273	46.4%	21.6%	32.0%	-13.9	9
1993-07-18	@ Fyllingen	W 1-0	1273	1221	32.0%	21.6%	46.4%	+13.9	19
1993-07-18	Brann	W 5-1	1219	1327	38.4%	21.7%	39.9%	+36.6	13
1993-07-18	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-5	1327	1219	39.9%	21.7%	38.4%	-36.6	15
1993-07-18	Viking	D 1-1	1390	1384	53.8%	21.2%	25.0%	-1.9	22
1993-07-18	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1384	1390	25.0%	21.2%	53.8%	+1.9	22
1993-07-18	Molde	L 0-1	1246	1211	57.0%	20.9%	22.1%	-16.7	10
1993-07-18	@ Tromso	W 1-0	1211	1246	22.1%	20.9%	57.0%	+16.7	10
1993-07-25	Tromso	W 1-0	1376	1229	67.5%	19.4%	13.1%	+4.6	24
1993-07-25	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-1	1229	1376	13.1%	19.4%	67.5%	-4.6	10
1993-07-25	Molde	W 2-1	1207	1228	50.5%	21.4%	28.1%	+8.7	12
1993-07-25	@ Fyllingen	L 1-2	1228	1207	28.1%	21.4%	50.5%	-8.7	10
1993-07-25	Brann	W 3-0	1287	1291	52.5%	21.3%	26.2%	+23.9	22
1993-07-25	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-3	1291	1287	26.2%	21.3%	52.5%	-23.9	15
1993-07-25	Start	W 3-0	1244	1367	36.4%	21.7%	42.0%	+35.0	12
1993-07-25	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-3	1367	1244	42.0%	21.7%	36.4%	-35.1	17
1993-07-25	Viking	W 3-0	1371	1386	51.2%	21.4%	27.4%	+24.8	22
1993-07-25	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	1386	1371	27.4%	21.4%	51.2%	-24.8	22
1993-08-01	Fyllingen	W 5-1	1381	1216	68.9%	19.0%	12.0%	+12.7	27
1993-08-01	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-5	1216	1381	12.0%	19.0%	68.9%	-12.7	12
1993-08-01	Rosenborg	L 0-2	1267	1388	36.6%	21.7%	41.7%	-21.7	15
1993-08-01	@ Brann	W 2-0	1388	1267	41.7%	21.7%	36.6%	+21.7	25
1993-08-01	Lillestrom	D 1-1	1255	1396	34.0%	21.6%	44.3%	+0.7	14
1993-08-01	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	1396	1255	44.3%	21.6%	34.0%	-0.7	23
1993-08-01	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	1219	1311	40.8%	21.7%	37.5%	-0.2	11
1993-08-01	@ Molde	D 0-0	1311	1219	37.5%	21.7%	40.8%	+0.2	23
1993-08-01	Tromso	D 0-0	1332	1225	64.2%	20.0%	15.8%	-3.8	18
1993-08-01	@ Start	D 0-0	1225	1332	15.8%	20.0%	64.2%	+3.8	11
1993-08-01	Kongsvinger	L 2-3	1361	1279	61.8%	20.4%	17.8%	-16.1	22
1993-08-01	@ Viking	W 3-2	1279	1361	17.8%	20.4%	61.8%	+16.1	15
1993-08-08	Start	W 3-0	1204	1329	36.1%	21.7%	42.2%	+35.2	15
1993-08-08	@ Fyllingen	L 0-3	1329	1204	42.2%	21.7%	36.1%	-35.2	18
1993-08-08	Bodo Glimt	W 2-1	1311	1394	42.2%	21.7%	36.1%	+10.7	26
1993-08-08	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	1394	1311	36.1%	21.7%	42.2%	-10.7	27
1993-08-08	Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	1295	1256	57.5%	20.9%	21.6%	+7.0	18
1993-08-08	@ Kongsvinger	L 1-2	1256	1295	21.6%	20.9%	57.5%	-7.0	14
1993-08-08	Rosenborg	L 2-3	1395	1410	51.2%	21.4%	27.5%	-13.5	23
1993-08-08	@ Lillestrom	W 3-2	1410	1395	27.5%	21.4%	51.2%	+13.5	28
1993-08-08	Brann	W 2-0	1219	1245	49.7%	21.5%	28.9%	+17.8	14
1993-08-08	@ Molde	L 0-2	1245	1219	28.9%	21.5%	49.7%	-17.9	15
1993-08-08	Viking	W 2-1	1228	1345	37.4%	21.7%	40.9%	+11.8	14
1993-08-08	@ Tromso	L 1-2	1345	1228	40.9%	21.7%	37.4%	-11.8	22
1993-08-15	Molde	W 3-0	1383	1236	67.5%	19.4%	13.1%	+12.7	30
1993-08-15	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-3	1236	1383	13.1%	19.4%	67.5%	-12.7	14
1993-08-15	Lillestrom	W 2-1	1227	1382	32.2%	21.6%	46.2%	+13.1	18
1993-08-15	@ Brann	L 1-2	1382	1227	46.2%	21.6%	32.2%	-13.1	23
1993-08-15	Tromso	W 2-0	1249	1240	54.0%	21.2%	24.8%	+15.7	17
1993-08-15	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1240	1249	24.8%	21.2%	54.0%	-15.7	14
1993-08-15	Kongsvinger	W 3-2	1423	1302	65.4%	19.8%	14.8%	+4.7	31
1993-08-15	@ Rosenborg	L 2-3	1302	1423	14.8%	19.8%	65.4%	-4.6	18
1993-08-15	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	1293	1322	49.4%	21.5%	29.1%	+18.0	21
1993-08-15	@ Start	L 0-2	1322	1293	29.1%	21.5%	49.4%	-18.0	26
1993-08-15	Fyllingen	W 1-0	1333	1239	63.0%	20.2%	16.8%	+5.9	25
1993-08-15	@ Viking	L 0-1	1239	1333	16.8%	20.2%	63.0%	-5.9	15
1993-08-22	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	1233	1265	49.0%	21.5%	29.5%	-1.4	16
1993-08-22	@ Fyllingen	D 0-0	1265	1233	29.5%	21.5%	49.0%	+1.4	18
1993-08-22	Viking	D 3-3	1304	1339	48.7%	21.5%	29.8%	-0.8	27
1993-08-22	@ Hamarkameratene	D 3-3	1339	1304	29.8%	21.5%	48.7%	+0.8	26
1993-08-22	Lillestrom	L 0-2	1297	1368	43.8%	21.6%	34.6%	-25.0	18
1993-08-22	@ Kongsvinger	W 2-0	1368	1297	34.6%	21.6%	43.8%	+25.0	26
1993-08-22	Start	W 1-0	1224	1311	41.5%	21.7%	36.9%	+11.5	17
1993-08-22	@ Molde	L 0-1	1311	1224	36.9%	21.7%	41.5%	-11.5	21
1993-08-22	Rosenborg	D 0-0	1225	1428	26.2%	21.3%	52.5%	+2.0	15
1993-08-22	@ Tromso	D 0-0	1428	1225	52.5%	21.3%	26.2%	-2.0	32
1993-08-23	Bodo Glimt	L 1-3	1240	1396	32.1%	21.6%	46.3%	-16.9	18
1993-08-23	@ Brann	W 3-1	1396	1240	46.3%	21.6%	32.1%	+16.9	33
1993-08-29	Brann	L 0-2	1272	1224	58.5%	20.8%	20.7%	-32.3	18
1993-08-29	@ Kongsvinger	W 2-0	1224	1272	20.7%	20.8%	58.5%	+32.3	21
1993-08-29	Tromso	W 3-2	1393	1226	69.1%	19.0%	11.9%	+3.8	29
1993-08-29	@ Lillestrom	L 2-3	1226	1393	11.9%	19.0%	69.1%	-3.8	15
1993-08-29	Hamarkameratene	L 0-6	1266	1303	48.3%	21.5%	30.2%	-75.4	18
1993-08-29	@ Lyn Oslo	W 6-0	1303	1266	30.2%	21.5%	48.3%	+75.4	30
1993-08-29	Fyllingen	W 5-1	1426	1231	71.1%	18.5%	10.4%	+11.0	35
1993-08-29	@ Rosenborg	L 1-5	1231	1426	10.4%	18.5%	71.1%	-11.0	16
1993-08-29	Bodo Glimt	L 0-1	1300	1413	37.9%	21.7%	40.5%	-11.8	21
1993-08-29	@ Start	W 1-0	1413	1300	40.5%	21.7%	37.9%	+11.8	36
1993-08-29	Molde	W 1-0	1339	1235	63.9%	20.1%	16.1%	+5.6	29
1993-08-29	@ Viking	L 0-1	1235	1339	16.1%	20.1%	63.9%	-5.6	17
1993-09-04	Rosenborg	L 2-4	1379	1437	45.5%	21.6%	32.9%	-20.0	30
1993-09-04	@ Hamarkameratene	W 4-2	1437	1379	32.9%	21.6%	45.5%	+20.0	38
1993-09-05	Viking	W 4-1	1424	1345	61.6%	20.4%	18.0%	+14.5	39
1993-09-05	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-4	1345	1424	18.0%	20.4%	61.6%	-14.5	29
1993-09-05	Lillestrom	L 1-2	1220	1397	29.4%	21.5%	49.2%	-9.1	16
1993-09-05	@ Fyllingen	W 2-1	1397	1220	49.2%	21.5%	29.4%	+9.0	32
1993-09-05	Lyn Oslo	W 6-3	1230	1191	57.4%	20.9%	21.7%	+13.7	20
1993-09-05	@ Molde	L 3-6	1191	1230	21.7%	20.9%	57.4%	-13.7	18
1993-09-05	Brann	D 0-0	1288	1256	56.7%	21.0%	22.3%	-2.6	22
1993-09-05	@ Start	D 0-0	1256	1288	22.3%	21.0%	56.7%	+2.6	22
1993-09-05	Kongsvinger	W 4-0	1223	1240	50.8%	21.4%	27.8%	+32.8	18
1993-09-05	@ Tromso	L 0-4	1240	1223	27.8%	21.4%	50.8%	-32.8	18
1993-09-11	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	1406	1359	58.4%	20.8%	20.8%	+13.5	35
1993-09-11	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	1359	1406	20.8%	20.8%	58.4%	-13.5	30
1993-09-12	Tromso	D 1-1	1258	1255	53.3%	21.2%	25.4%	-1.9	23
1993-09-12	@ Brann	D 1-1	1255	1258	25.4%	21.2%	53.3%	+1.9	19
1993-09-12	Fyllingen	W 6-0	1207	1211	52.5%	21.3%	26.2%	+45.7	21
1993-09-12	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-6	1211	1207	26.2%	21.3%	52.5%	-45.7	16
1993-09-12	Bodo Glimt	L 1-2	1177	1439	20.2%	20.7%	59.1%	-6.6	18
1993-09-12	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	1439	1177	59.1%	20.7%	20.2%	+6.6	42
1993-09-12	Molde	W 2-0	1457	1243	72.4%	18.1%	9.5%	+6.3	41
1993-09-12	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	1243	1457	9.5%	18.1%	72.4%	-6.3	20
1993-09-12	Start	W 1-0	1331	1285	58.1%	20.8%	21.1%	+7.2	32
1993-09-12	@ Viking	L 0-1	1285	1331	21.1%	20.8%	58.1%	-7.2	22
1993-09-25	Rosenborg	L 1-2	1445	1463	50.8%	21.4%	27.8%	-14.2	42
1993-09-25	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-1	1463	1445	27.8%	21.4%	50.8%	+14.2	44
1993-09-26	Tromso	D 0-0	1166	1257	40.9%	21.7%	37.4%	-0.2	17
1993-09-26	@ Fyllingen	D 0-0	1257	1166	37.4%	21.7%	40.9%	+0.2	20
1993-09-26	Kongsvinger	L 1-2	1345	1253	62.8%	20.2%	17.0%	-17.2	30
1993-09-26	@ Hamarkameratene	W 2-1	1253	1345	17.0%	20.2%	62.8%	+17.2	24
1993-09-26	Lillestrom	D 0-0	1237	1420	28.6%	21.4%	49.9%	+1.6	21
1993-09-26	@ Molde	D 0-0	1420	1237	49.9%	21.4%	28.6%	-1.6	36
1993-09-26	Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	1278	1170	64.2%	20.0%	15.8%	-2.5	23
1993-09-26	@ Start	D 2-2	1170	1278	15.8%	20.0%	64.2%	+2.5	19
1993-09-26	Brann	W 1-0	1338	1257	61.8%	20.4%	17.9%	+6.2	35
1993-09-26	@ Viking	L 0-1	1257	1338	17.9%	20.4%	61.8%	-6.2	23
1993-10-03	Brann	L 1-6	1165	1250	41.8%	21.7%	36.5%	-46.6	17
1993-10-03	@ Fyllingen	W 6-1	1250	1165	36.5%	21.7%	41.8%	+46.6	26
1993-10-03	Molde	D 2-2	1270	1239	56.6%	21.0%	22.4%	-1.7	25
1993-10-03	@ Kongsvinger	D 2-2	1239	1270	22.4%	21.0%	56.6%	+1.7	22
1993-10-03	Bodo Glimt	W 5-3	1418	1431	51.4%	21.4%	27.3%	+12.4	39
1993-10-03	@ Lillestrom	L 3-5	1431	1418	27.3%	21.4%	51.4%	-12.5	42
1993-10-03	Viking	L 2-3	1173	1344	30.1%	21.5%	48.4%	-8.8	19
1993-10-03	@ Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	1344	1173	48.4%	21.5%	30.1%	+8.8	38
1993-10-03	Start	W 2-1	1478	1276	71.6%	18.3%	10.1%	+3.4	47
1993-10-03	@ Rosenborg	L 1-2	1276	1478	10.1%	18.3%	71.6%	-3.4	23
1993-10-03	Hamarkameratene	W 4-1	1258	1328	43.9%	21.6%	34.5%	+25.3	23
1993-10-03	@ Tromso	L 1-4	1328	1258	34.5%	21.6%	43.9%	-25.3	30
1993-10-17	Kongsvinger	W 4-1	1419	1269	67.8%	19.3%	12.9%	+10.5	45
1993-10-17	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-4	1269	1419	12.9%	19.3%	67.8%	-10.5	25
1993-10-17	Lyn Oslo	L 3-7	1297	1164	66.4%	19.6%	14.0%	-44.5	26
1993-10-17	@ Brann	W 7-3	1164	1297	14.0%	19.6%	66.4%	+44.5	22
1993-10-17	Fyllingen	W 6-0	1303	1119	70.3%	18.7%	11.0%	+20.3	33
1993-10-17	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-6	1119	1303	11.0%	18.7%	70.3%	-20.3	17
1993-10-17	Tromso	L 0-1	1240	1283	47.6%	21.5%	30.8%	-14.2	22
1993-10-17	@ Molde	W 1-0	1283	1240	30.8%	21.5%	47.6%	+14.2	26
1993-10-17	Lillestrom	L 1-5	1272	1431	31.7%	21.6%	46.7%	-30.5	23
1993-10-17	@ Start	W 5-1	1431	1272	46.7%	21.6%	31.7%	+30.5	42
1993-10-17	Rosenborg	W 2-0	1353	1481	35.7%	21.7%	42.6%	+24.5	41
1993-10-17	@ Viking	L 0-2	1481	1353	42.6%	21.7%	35.7%	-24.5	47

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1993-10-17	14.03%	Lyn Oslo	1164	7	@ Brann	1297	3
2	1993-09-26	16.98%	Kongsvinger	1253	2	@ Hamarkameratene	1345	1
3	1993-05-08	17.54%	Brann	1302	4	@ Rosenborg	1388	0
4	1993-08-01	17.83%	Kongsvinger	1279	3	@ Viking	1361	2
5	1993-06-13	17.90%	Tromso	1227	4	@ Kongsvinger	1308	2
6	1993-08-29	20.72%	Brann	1224	2	@ Kongsvinger	1272	0
7	1993-07-04	21.85%	Lillestrom	1355	2	@ Bodo Glimt	1392	1
8	1993-07-18	22.06%	Molde	1211	1	@ Tromso	1246	0
9	1993-06-27	22.73%	Hamarkameratene	1241	2	@ Kongsvinger	1270	1
10	1993-06-20	23.65%	Viking	1329	1	@ Start	1348	0
11	1993-06-30	23.90%	Start	1353	2	@ Lillestrom	1370	1
12	1993-05-20	24.56%	Bodo Glimt	1288	2	@ Molde	1299	0
13	1993-06-27	24.98%	Viking	1345	2	@ Brann	1352	0
14	1993-05-20	26.56%	Lyn Oslo	1273	2	@ Tromso	1266	0
15	1993-08-08	27.46%	Rosenborg	1410	3	@ Lillestrom	1395	2
16	1993-09-25	27.84%	Rosenborg	1463	2	@ Bodo Glimt	1445	1
17	1993-08-29	30.17%	Hamarkameratene	1303	6	@ Lyn Oslo	1266	0
18	1993-10-17	30.84%	Tromso	1283	1	@ Molde	1240	0
19	1993-07-18	32.03%	Hamarkameratene	1273	1	@ Fyllingen	1221	0
20	1993-08-15	32.22%	@ Brann	1227	2	Lillestrom	1382	1
21	1993-06-16	32.33%	Rosenborg	1312	4	@ Fyllingen	1258	0
22	1993-09-04	32.90%	Rosenborg	1437	4	@ Hamarkameratene	1379	2
23	1993-06-20	34.26%	@ Hamarkameratene	1229	4	Lillestrom	1368	3
24	1993-08-22	34.58%	Lillestrom	1368	2	@ Kongsvinger	1297	0
25	1993-05-02	34.82%	Rosenborg	1374	1	@ Lyn Oslo	1302	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1993-08-29	75.44	Hamarkameratene	6	1303	30.17%	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1266	48.32%	21.52%
2	1993-05-08	64.82	Brann	4	1302	17.54%	@ Rosenborg	0	1388	62.13%	20.32%
3	1993-06-20	56.95	@ Bodo Glimt	8	1323	54.20%	Lyn Oslo	0	1312	24.62%	21.18%
4	1993-06-16	49.48	Rosenborg	4	1312	32.33%	@ Fyllingen	0	1258	46.07%	21.60%
5	1993-10-03	46.63	Brann	6	1250	36.48%	@ Fyllingen	1	1165	41.84%	21.68%
6	1993-09-12	45.71	@ Kongsvinger	6	1207	52.49%	Fyllingen	0	1211	26.21%	21.30%
7	1993-10-17	44.54	Lyn Oslo	7	1164	14.03%	@ Brann	3	1297	66.37%	19.60%
8	1993-07-18	36.64	@ Lyn Oslo	5	1219	38.44%	Brann	1	1327	39.87%	21.69%
9	1993-08-08	35.20	@ Fyllingen	3	1204	36.14%	Start	0	1329	42.18%	21.68%
10	1993-07-25	35.06	@ Kongsvinger	3	1244	36.36%	Start	0	1367	41.96%	21.68%
11	1993-09-05	32.79	@ Tromso	4	1223	50.84%	Kongsvinger	0	1240	27.76%	21.40%
12	1993-08-29	32.28	Brann	2	1224	20.72%	@ Kongsvinger	0	1272	58.49%	20.79%
13	1993-05-23	30.50	@ Viking	7	1295	58.67%	Hamarkameratene	1	1244	20.56%	20.77%
14	1993-10-17	30.49	Lillestrom	5	1431	46.74%	@ Start	1	1272	31.68%	21.57%
15	1993-05-20	30.12	Bodo Glimt	2	1288	24.56%	@ Molde	0	1299	54.26%	21.18%
16	1993-06-27	29.89	Viking	2	1345	24.98%	@ Brann	0	1352	53.81%	21.21%
17	1993-05-20	29.04	Lyn Oslo	2	1273	26.56%	@ Tromso	0	1266	52.12%	21.32%
18	1993-06-13	26.29	Tromso	4	1227	17.90%	@ Kongsvinger	2	1308	61.72%	20.38%
19	1993-10-03	25.30	@ Tromso	4	1258	43.87%	Hamarkameratene	1	1328	34.48%	21.65%
20	1993-05-20	25.16	@ Kongsvinger	3	1305	50.75%	Rosenborg	0	1323	27.84%	21.40%
21	1993-08-22	24.98	Lillestrom	2	1368	34.58%	@ Kongsvinger	0	1297	43.77%	21.65%
22	1993-07-25	24.84	@ Lillestrom	3	1371	51.19%	Viking	0	1386	27.43%	21.38%
23	1993-10-17	24.45	@ Viking	2	1353	35.69%	Rosenborg	0	1481	42.64%	21.67%
24	1993-07-25	23.87	@ Hamarkameratene	3	1287	52.55%	Brann	0	1291	26.16%	21.30%
25	1993-05-02	23.84	@ Start	3	1315	52.58%	Kongsvinger	0	1318	26.13%	21.29%