1992 Tippeligaen Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

46 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Kongsvinger

7.54 points above expected

40 points · 32.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Viking

9.29 points below expected

21 points · 30.29 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 22 14 4 4 46 58 19 +39 38.91 +7.09
2 Kongsvinger 22 12 4 6 40 43 27 +16 32.46 +7.54
3 Start 22 11 6 5 39 38 28 +10 34.64 +4.36
4 Lillestrom 22 11 5 6 38 48 28 +20 36.17 +1.83
5 Lyn Oslo 22 11 4 7 37 33 29 +4 30.99 +6.01
6 Molde 22 11 3 8 36 30 30 0 29.95 +6.05
7 Brann 22 4 12 6 24 26 30 -4 30.72 -6.72
8 Tromso 22 6 6 10 24 22 37 -15 27.46 -3.46
9 Viking 22 4 9 9 21 25 34 -9 30.29 -9.29
10 Hamarkameratene 22 5 5 12 20 30 46 -16 24.93 -4.93
11 Sogndal 22 5 5 12 20 30 53 -23 26.26 -6.26
12 Mjondalen 22 5 3 14 18 20 42 -22 20.70 -2.70

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1462 46 38.91 +7.09 90.1% 17 29 35 39 43 49 59
Lillestrom 1376 38 36.17 +1.83 65.6% 13 26 32 36 40 46 60
Kongsvinger 1339 40 32.46 +7.54 90.9% 10 23 28 32 36 42 52
Start 1332 39 34.64 +4.36 79.6% 13 25 31 35 39 44 57
Lyn Oslo 1299 37 30.99 +6.01 87.0% 8 21 27 31 35 41 54
Molde 1287 36 29.95 +6.05 86.7% 12 20 26 30 34 40 52
Viking 1281 21 30.29 -9.29 6.6% 10 21 26 30 34 40 52
Brann 1281 24 30.72 -6.72 14.5% 10 21 27 31 35 41 55
Tromso 1237 24 27.46 -3.46 31.2% 6 18 24 27 31 37 48
Hamarkameratene 1191 20 24.93 -4.93 22.7% 7 16 21 25 29 35 48
Sogndal 1190 20 26.26 -6.26 16.2% 7 17 22 26 30 36 55
Mjondalen 1170 18 20.70 -2.70 35.1% 4 12 17 21 24 30 42

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA HAM KON LIL LO MJO MOL ROS SOG STA TRO VIK
Brann
1-0-1
3.28
0-2-0
2.52
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.60
0-1-1
2.84
0-1-1
1.84
0-2-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
3.18
1-1-0
2.74
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
2.22
0-0-2
2.20
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
2.30
1-0-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.21
0-1-1
1.62
0-1-1
2.76
0-1-1
1.88
2-0-0
2.46
0-2-0
2.21
Kongsvinger
0-2-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.30
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.99
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.14
1-0-1
3.36
1-0-1
2.59
0-1-1
3.42
1-1-0
2.95
Lillestrom
1-1-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.70
1-0-1
3.10
0-1-1
3.15
1-0-1
4.07
1-0-1
3.11
0-1-1
2.55
1-1-0
3.78
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.10
Lyn Oslo
0-1-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.37
2-0-0
3.56
0-1-1
2.99
0-0-2
2.09
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
3.09
2-0-0
2.79
Mjondalen
0-1-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
2.07
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
1.91
1-0-1
1.37
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
1.56
1-0-1
2.04
0-1-1
1.90
Molde
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
3.30
0-0-2
2.50
1-0-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.51
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
1.99
2-0-0
2.89
0-0-2
2.38
2-0-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.91
Rosenborg
1-1-0
3.67
1-1-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.36
1-1-0
2.94
2-0-0
3.41
1-0-1
4.23
1-0-1
3.51
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
3.00
1-1-0
3.43
1-0-1
3.62
Sogndal
0-2-0
2.37
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.13
0-1-1
1.76
0-0-2
2.39
1-1-0
3.26
0-0-2
2.59
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
2.26
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.40
Start
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
3.65
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.04
1-0-1
4.00
2-0-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.49
2-0-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.59
0-2-0
3.04
Tromso
1-1-0
2.32
0-0-2
3.06
1-1-0
2.08
1-0-1
1.90
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
3.48
0-0-2
2.75
0-1-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.87
0-1-1
1.94
1-1-0
2.51
Viking
0-1-1
2.75
0-2-0
3.28
0-1-1
2.56
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
2.69
1-1-0
3.62
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
1.91
1-0-1
3.10
0-2-0
2.47
0-1-1
2.98

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.72 +7.4
Allowed 0.71 -8.9
Differential 0.87 +4.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%8.33%4.17%3.03%2.27%2.65%25.76%
18.33%14.39%4.92%5.30%2.65%0.76%36.36%
24.17%4.92%3.79%1.52%1.52%15.91%
33.03%5.30%1.52%1.52%0.38%11.74%
42.27%2.65%4.92%
5+2.65%0.76%1.52%0.38%5.30%
Total25.76%36.36%15.91%11.74%4.92%5.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.29
CV 0.97 0.97
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
14.55%31.82%9.09%4.55%50.00%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total22.73%45.45%9.09%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.36 -0.18
SD 0.96 1.18 1.30
CV 0.81 0.86
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
113.64%9.09%9.09%9.09%40.91%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
313.64%9.09%22.73%
4
5+
Total18.18%22.73%18.18%18.18%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.09 -0.73
SD 1.09 1.54 2.25
CV 0.80 0.74
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
113.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%9.09%13.64%
Total40.91%27.27%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.23 +0.73
SD 1.79 1.51 2.43
CV 0.91 1.23
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
413.64%9.09%22.73%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total36.36%27.27%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.27 +0.91
SD 1.59 1.35 2.31
CV 0.73 1.06
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
113.64%13.64%9.09%4.55%40.91%
24.55%13.64%18.18%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%45.45%18.18%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.32 +0.18
SD 1.57 1.21 1.84
CV 1.04 0.92
Max 7 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%13.64%9.09%45.45%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total9.09%40.91%27.27%4.55%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.91 -1.00
SD 1.02 1.48 1.83
CV 1.12 0.77
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
19.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
29.09%9.09%18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+
Total31.82%31.82%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.36 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.40 2.39
CV 1.00 1.03
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%18.18%4.55%27.27%
213.64%13.64%
313.64%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
Total31.82%50.00%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 0.86 +1.77
SD 2.08 0.71 2.29
CV 0.79 0.82
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
19.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%45.45%
29.09%9.09%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total13.64%27.27%18.18%18.18%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.41 -1.05
SD 1.18 1.97 2.42
CV 0.86 0.82
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
113.64%13.64%27.27%
213.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%9.09%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%50.00%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.27 +0.45
SD 1.49 1.45 2.39
CV 0.86 1.14
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%18.18%4.55%40.91%
113.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%27.27%9.09%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.68 -0.68
SD 1.38 1.81 2.59
CV 1.38 1.08
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
14.55%22.73%4.55%9.09%9.09%50.00%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.55 -0.41
SD 1.17 1.44 1.82
CV 1.03 0.93
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kongsvinger 40 32.46 +7.54
2 Rosenborg 46 38.91 +7.09
3 Molde 36 29.95 +6.05
4 Lyn Oslo 37 30.99 +6.01
5 Start 39 34.64 +4.36

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Viking 21 30.29 -9.29
2 Brann 24 30.72 -6.72
3 Sogndal 20 26.26 -6.26
4 Hamarkameratene 20 24.93 -4.93
5 Tromso 24 27.46 -3.46

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kongsvinger 7 Jun 28 – Aug 23 1 in 792
2 Molde 6 Jul 26 – Aug 30 1 in 530
3 Mjondalen 3 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 91
4 Hamarkameratene 3 May 16 – Jun 8 1 in 27
5 Start 3 Aug 23 – Sep 13 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 4 Aug 23 – Sep 20 1 in 364
2 Tromso 5 Jul 5 – Aug 16 1 in 163
3 Mjondalen 5 Apr 26 – May 24 1 in 44
4 Sogndal 4 Jul 19 – Aug 16 1 in 21
5 Brann 3 Jun 14 – Jun 28 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 8 Aug 16 – Oct 18 1 in 54
2 Molde 7 Jul 5 – Aug 30 1 in 42
3 Kongsvinger 8 Jun 28 – Aug 30 1 in 35
4 Start 10 Apr 26 – Jul 5 1 in 30
5 Lillestrom 9 May 24 – Jul 26 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 10 Jul 26 – Oct 18 1 in 97
2 Lillestrom 6 Aug 9 – Sep 20 1 in 84
3 Mjondalen 13 Apr 26 – Jul 26 1 in 42
4 Tromso 7 Jun 28 – Aug 16 1 in 28
5 Viking 7 Apr 25 – Jun 14 1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Rosenborg39.49%21.56%13.31%8.39%5.76%4.40%2.90%1.95%1.15%0.77%0.29%0.03%
Kongsvinger7.88%11.16%12.36%12.38%11.91%10.70%9.30%8.11%6.23%5.35%3.15%1.47%
Start13.47%15.51%15.63%13.63%10.97%9.10%7.28%5.49%3.97%2.57%1.81%0.57%
Lillestrom20.47%19.76%15.53%12.39%9.53%6.98%5.55%4.26%2.42%1.69%1.08%0.34%
Lyn Oslo4.38%7.82%9.41%11.16%11.47%11.65%10.94%9.78%9.08%6.82%5.13%2.36%
Molde3.48%5.66%7.83%9.50%10.05%10.75%11.51%11.28%10.68%8.68%6.79%3.79%
Brann4.22%6.97%8.75%9.65%11.12%11.76%10.84%10.54%10.06%7.75%5.46%2.88%
Tromso1.34%2.50%4.11%5.71%7.08%8.49%10.37%12.49%13.25%13.21%12.65%8.80%
Viking3.90%5.83%7.78%9.16%10.78%11.09%11.41%10.81%10.22%9.07%6.55%3.40%
Hamarkameratene0.43%1.22%2.03%3.06%4.35%6.08%7.59%9.94%12.33%16.43%19.44%17.10%
Sogndal0.88%1.88%2.87%4.29%5.71%7.35%9.32%10.36%12.65%15.37%16.52%12.80%
Mjondalen0.06%0.13%0.39%0.68%1.27%1.65%2.99%4.99%7.96%12.29%21.13%46.46%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+25.00%
Strong Edge
50.00%25.00%25.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge
115 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
088.74300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.78 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.77+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
39%
Rosenborg, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.27/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.66 * Some Luck: 4.66 to 6.99 * Lucky: 6.99 to 9.33 * Wild Swing: 9.33 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.82 * Close: 1.82 to 2.74 * Off: 2.74 to 3.65 * Way Off: 3.65 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.89 points
Some Luck
05.8315
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.285
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
90.94%
Kongsvinger
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
6.63%
Viking
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.41
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
27%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.01
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.68
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1310.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Rosenborg 98.91% 0.77% 0.32%
Lillestrom 96.89% 1.69% 1.42%
Start 95.05% 2.57% 2.38%
Kongsvinger 90.03% 5.35% 4.62%
Lyn Oslo 85.69% 6.82% 7.49%
Brann 83.91% 7.75% 8.34%
Viking 80.98% 9.07% 9.95%
Molde 80.74% 8.68% 10.58%
Tromso 65.34% 13.21% 21.45%
Sogndal 55.31% 15.37% 29.32%
Hamarkameratene 47.03% 16.43% 36.54%
Mjondalen 20.12% 12.29% 67.59%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1992-04-25 Viking W 2-1 1305 1315 47.6% 25.7% 26.7% +4.9 3
1992-04-25 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1315 1305 26.7% 25.7% 47.6% -4.9 0
1992-04-26 Brann W 3-1 1218 1304 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% +10.9 3
1992-04-26 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-3 1304 1218 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% -10.9 0
1992-04-26 Kongsvinger L 0-2 1216 1279 40.4% 26.4% 33.2% -13.6 0
1992-04-26 @ Mjondalen W 2-0 1279 1216 33.2% 26.4% 40.4% +13.6 3
1992-04-26 Tromso W 1-0 1292 1303 47.6% 25.7% 26.7% +5.2 3
1992-04-26 @ Molde L 0-1 1303 1292 26.7% 25.7% 47.6% -5.2 0
1992-04-26 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1349 1280 57.4% 23.5% 19.1% +7.3 3
1992-04-26 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1280 1349 19.1% 23.5% 57.4% -7.3 0
1992-04-26 Sogndal W 4-1 1314 1269 54.6% 24.3% 21.1% +9.8 3
1992-04-26 @ Start L 1-4 1269 1314 21.1% 24.3% 54.6% -9.8 0
1992-05-02 Hamarkameratene W 3-0 1293 1228 56.9% 23.6% 19.5% +10.8 6
1992-05-02 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1228 1293 19.5% 23.6% 56.9% -10.8 3
1992-05-03 Lillestrom D 0-0 1294 1309 46.9% 25.8% 27.3% -0.8 1
1992-05-03 @ Brann D 0-0 1309 1294 27.3% 25.8% 46.9% +0.8 4
1992-05-03 Mjondalen W 1-0 1273 1202 57.6% 23.4% 19.0% +3.8 3
1992-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1202 1273 19.0% 23.4% 57.6% -3.8 0
1992-05-03 Molde L 0-1 1259 1298 43.9% 26.2% 30.0% -7.7 0
1992-05-03 @ Sogndal W 1-0 1298 1259 30.0% 26.2% 43.9% +7.7 6
1992-05-03 Rosenborg D 1-1 1298 1356 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% -0.3 1
1992-05-03 @ Tromso D 1-1 1356 1298 32.6% 26.4% 41.0% +0.3 4
1992-05-03 Start D 1-1 1310 1324 47.1% 25.8% 27.1% -0.7 1
1992-05-03 @ Viking D 1-1 1324 1310 27.1% 25.8% 47.1% +0.7 4
1992-05-10 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1218 1277 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% -13.7 3
1992-05-10 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1277 1218 32.6% 26.4% 41.0% +13.7 6
1992-05-10 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1310 1304 49.8% 25.4% 24.9% +4.9 7
1992-05-10 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1304 1310 24.9% 25.4% 49.8% -4.9 6
1992-05-10 Tromso L 0-1 1199 1297 35.3% 26.5% 38.2% -6.5 0
1992-05-10 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1297 1199 38.2% 26.5% 35.3% +6.5 4
1992-05-10 Molde W 2-0 1357 1305 55.3% 24.1% 20.6% +7.8 7
1992-05-10 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1305 1357 20.6% 24.1% 55.3% -7.8 6
1992-05-10 Viking W 4-1 1252 1310 41.1% 26.4% 32.5% +14.1 3
1992-05-10 @ Sogndal L 1-4 1310 1252 32.5% 26.4% 41.1% -14.1 1
1992-05-10 Brann D 0-0 1325 1293 53.0% 24.7% 22.3% -1.3 5
1992-05-10 @ Start D 0-0 1293 1325 22.3% 24.7% 53.0% +1.3 2
1992-05-16 Viking W 3-1 1294 1295 48.8% 25.5% 25.7% +8.3 5
1992-05-16 @ Brann L 1-3 1295 1294 25.7% 25.5% 48.8% -8.3 1
1992-05-16 Start L 1-3 1299 1324 45.7% 26.0% 28.3% -12.9 6
1992-05-16 @ Kongsvinger W 3-1 1324 1299 28.3% 26.0% 45.7% +13.0 8
1992-05-16 Lillestrom W 3-1 1290 1315 45.7% 26.0% 28.3% +9.0 9
1992-05-16 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1315 1290 28.3% 26.0% 45.7% -9.0 7
1992-05-16 Mjondalen W 2-0 1297 1192 61.5% 22.1% 16.4% +6.2 9
1992-05-16 @ Molde L 0-2 1192 1297 16.4% 22.1% 61.5% -6.2 0
1992-05-16 Sogndal W 5-1 1364 1266 60.7% 22.4% 16.9% +10.2 10
1992-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 1-5 1266 1364 16.9% 22.4% 60.7% -10.2 3
1992-05-16 Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1304 1204 60.9% 22.3% 16.8% -27.5 4
1992-05-16 @ Tromso W 3-0 1204 1304 16.8% 22.3% 60.9% +27.5 6
1992-05-24 Molde W 3-0 1231 1304 39.1% 26.5% 34.4% +17.5 9
1992-05-24 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1304 1231 34.4% 26.5% 39.1% -17.5 9
1992-05-24 Tromso W 6-0 1306 1276 52.7% 24.7% 22.5% +23.6 10
1992-05-24 @ Lillestrom L 0-6 1276 1306 22.5% 24.7% 52.7% -23.6 4
1992-05-24 Rosenborg L 0-1 1186 1375 24.4% 25.2% 50.4% -4.8 0
1992-05-24 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1375 1186 50.4% 25.2% 24.4% +4.8 13
1992-05-24 Brann D 1-1 1256 1302 42.7% 26.3% 31.0% -0.4 4
1992-05-24 @ Sogndal D 1-1 1302 1256 31.0% 26.3% 42.7% +0.4 6
1992-05-24 Lyn Oslo W 5-0 1337 1299 53.6% 24.5% 21.8% +19.3 11
1992-05-24 @ Start L 0-5 1299 1337 21.8% 24.5% 53.6% -19.3 9
1992-05-24 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1287 1286 49.1% 25.5% 25.4% -0.9 2
1992-05-24 @ Viking D 1-1 1286 1287 25.4% 25.5% 49.1% +0.9 7
1992-05-31 Brann D 3-3 1287 1303 46.9% 25.8% 27.3% -0.5 8
1992-05-31 @ Kongsvinger D 3-3 1303 1287 27.3% 25.8% 46.9% +0.4 7
1992-05-31 Viking W 3-1 1280 1286 48.1% 25.6% 26.2% +8.4 12
1992-05-31 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1286 1280 26.2% 25.6% 48.1% -8.4 2
1992-05-31 Sogndal D 1-1 1181 1255 38.8% 26.5% 34.7% -0.1 1
1992-05-31 @ Mjondalen D 1-1 1255 1181 34.7% 26.5% 38.8% +0.1 5
1992-05-31 Lillestrom L 0-4 1286 1330 43.1% 26.2% 30.6% -27.1 9
1992-05-31 @ Molde W 4-0 1330 1286 30.6% 26.2% 43.1% +27.1 13
1992-05-31 Start D 2-2 1253 1356 34.7% 26.5% 38.8% +0.1 5
1992-05-31 @ Tromso D 2-2 1356 1253 38.8% 26.5% 34.7% -0.1 12
1992-06-08 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1303 1288 50.8% 25.1% 24.0% +4.8 10
1992-06-08 @ Brann L 0-1 1288 1303 24.0% 25.1% 50.8% -4.8 12
1992-06-08 Mjondalen W 3-1 1249 1181 57.3% 23.5% 19.2% +6.3 12
1992-06-08 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-3 1181 1249 19.2% 23.5% 57.3% -6.3 1
1992-06-08 Sogndal W 5-0 1286 1255 52.9% 24.7% 22.4% +19.8 11
1992-06-08 @ Kongsvinger L 0-5 1255 1286 22.4% 24.7% 52.9% -19.8 5
1992-06-08 Rosenborg D 1-1 1357 1379 46.0% 25.9% 28.1% -0.7 14
1992-06-08 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1379 1357 28.1% 25.9% 46.0% +0.7 14
1992-06-08 Molde W 2-1 1356 1259 60.5% 22.4% 17.0% +3.2 15
1992-06-08 @ Start L 1-2 1259 1356 17.0% 22.4% 60.5% -3.2 9
1992-06-14 Kongsvinger W 3-2 1284 1306 46.0% 25.9% 28.1% +4.9 15
1992-06-14 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1306 1284 28.1% 25.9% 46.0% -4.9 11
1992-06-14 Lillestrom L 0-4 1175 1356 25.1% 25.4% 49.5% -17.7 1
1992-06-14 @ Mjondalen W 4-0 1356 1175 49.5% 25.4% 25.1% +17.7 17
1992-06-14 Viking D 0-0 1256 1278 46.0% 25.9% 28.0% -0.7 10
1992-06-14 @ Molde D 0-0 1278 1256 28.0% 25.9% 46.0% +0.7 3
1992-06-14 Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1236 1255 46.4% 25.9% 27.8% +8.8 8
1992-06-14 @ Sogndal L 1-3 1255 1236 27.8% 25.9% 46.4% -8.8 12
1992-06-14 Brann W 3-1 1253 1308 41.5% 26.4% 32.1% +9.9 8
1992-06-14 @ Tromso L 1-3 1308 1253 32.1% 26.4% 41.5% -9.9 10
1992-06-21 Molde L 2-3 1298 1255 54.3% 24.3% 21.3% -8.2 10
1992-06-21 @ Brann W 3-2 1255 1298 21.3% 24.3% 54.3% +8.2 13
1992-06-21 Tromso L 0-2 1301 1263 53.8% 24.5% 21.7% -17.1 11
1992-06-21 @ Kongsvinger W 2-0 1263 1301 21.7% 24.5% 53.8% +17.1 11
1992-06-21 Hamarkameratene W 4-0 1374 1246 63.8% 21.2% 15.0% +10.7 20
1992-06-21 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1246 1374 15.0% 21.2% 63.8% -10.7 12
1992-06-21 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1244 1289 43.0% 26.2% 30.7% -7.1 8
1992-06-21 @ Sogndal W 2-1 1289 1244 30.7% 26.2% 43.0% +7.1 18
1992-06-21 Mjondalen W 4-1 1359 1157 71.1% 17.9% 11.0% +4.9 18
1992-06-21 @ Start L 1-4 1157 1359 11.0% 17.9% 71.1% -4.9 1
1992-06-21 Rosenborg W 1-0 1279 1380 34.9% 26.5% 38.6% +6.9 6
1992-06-21 @ Viking L 0-1 1380 1279 38.6% 26.5% 34.9% -7.0 14
1992-06-28 Start D 1-1 1236 1364 31.4% 26.3% 42.3% +0.4 13
1992-06-28 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1364 1236 42.3% 26.3% 31.4% -0.4 19
1992-06-28 Sogndal D 3-3 1385 1237 65.9% 20.3% 13.8% -1.3 21
1992-06-28 @ Lillestrom D 3-3 1237 1385 13.8% 20.3% 65.9% +1.3 9
1992-06-28 Viking D 2-2 1152 1286 30.7% 26.2% 43.1% +0.3 2
1992-06-28 @ Mjondalen D 2-2 1286 1152 43.1% 26.2% 30.7% -0.3 7
1992-06-28 Kongsvinger L 0-2 1263 1284 46.2% 25.9% 27.9% -15.1 13
1992-06-28 @ Molde W 2-0 1284 1263 27.9% 25.9% 46.2% +15.1 14
1992-06-28 Brann W 2-0 1373 1290 59.0% 23.0% 18.0% +6.9 17
1992-06-28 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1290 1373 18.0% 23.0% 59.0% -6.9 10
1992-06-28 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1280 1296 46.9% 25.8% 27.3% -0.8 12
1992-06-28 @ Tromso D 0-0 1296 1280 27.3% 25.8% 46.9% +0.8 19
1992-07-01 Hamarkameratene W 5-2 1380 1236 65.5% 20.5% 14.0% +5.6 20
1992-07-01 @ Rosenborg L 2-5 1236 1380 14.0% 20.5% 65.5% -5.6 13
1992-07-01 Tromso D 0-0 1285 1279 49.8% 25.4% 24.9% -1.0 8
1992-07-01 @ Viking D 0-0 1279 1285 24.9% 25.4% 49.8% +1.0 13
1992-07-05 Mjondalen W 2-0 1283 1152 64.1% 21.1% 14.8% +5.6 13
1992-07-05 @ Brann L 0-2 1152 1283 14.8% 21.1% 64.1% -5.6 2
1992-07-05 Rosenborg W 1-0 1299 1385 37.1% 26.5% 36.4% +6.7 17
1992-07-05 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1385 1299 36.4% 26.5% 37.1% -6.7 20
1992-07-05 Molde D 1-1 1296 1248 55.0% 24.2% 20.8% -1.3 20
1992-07-05 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1248 1296 20.8% 24.2% 55.0% +1.3 14
1992-07-05 Tromso W 3-0 1238 1280 43.4% 26.2% 30.4% +15.9 12
1992-07-05 @ Sogndal L 0-3 1280 1238 30.4% 26.2% 43.4% -15.9 13
1992-07-05 Lillestrom D 2-2 1364 1383 46.3% 25.9% 27.8% -0.5 20
1992-07-05 @ Start D 2-2 1383 1364 27.8% 25.9% 46.3% +0.5 22
1992-07-05 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1284 1231 55.6% 24.0% 20.4% -1.4 9
1992-07-05 @ Viking D 1-1 1231 1284 20.4% 24.0% 55.6% +1.3 14
1992-07-08 Start W 6-0 1379 1363 51.0% 25.1% 23.9% +24.9 23
1992-07-08 @ Rosenborg L 0-6 1363 1379 23.9% 25.1% 51.0% -24.9 20
1992-07-19 Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1289 1232 56.0% 23.9% 20.1% +6.6 16
1992-07-19 @ Brann L 1-3 1232 1289 20.1% 23.9% 56.0% -6.6 14
1992-07-19 Mjondalen W 6-2 1306 1147 67.0% 19.8% 13.2% +6.6 20
1992-07-19 @ Kongsvinger L 2-6 1147 1306 13.2% 19.8% 67.0% -6.6 2
1992-07-19 Rosenborg L 1-3 1295 1404 34.0% 26.5% 39.6% -10.3 20
1992-07-19 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1404 1295 39.6% 26.5% 34.0% +10.3 26
1992-07-19 Start L 1-2 1254 1338 37.5% 26.5% 36.0% -6.4 12
1992-07-19 @ Sogndal W 2-1 1338 1254 36.0% 26.5% 37.5% +6.4 23
1992-07-19 Lillestrom L 0-2 1283 1384 35.0% 26.5% 38.5% -12.2 9
1992-07-19 @ Viking W 2-0 1384 1283 38.5% 26.5% 35.0% +12.2 25
1992-07-26 Kongsvinger L 1-2 1225 1312 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% -6.4 14
1992-07-26 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1312 1225 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% +6.4 23
1992-07-26 Brann W 4-1 1396 1295 61.0% 22.3% 16.7% +7.8 28
1992-07-26 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1295 1396 16.7% 22.3% 61.0% -7.8 16
1992-07-26 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1140 1285 29.3% 26.1% 44.6% -5.6 2
1992-07-26 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1285 1140 44.6% 26.1% 29.3% +5.6 23
1992-07-26 Sogndal W 3-0 1249 1248 49.1% 25.5% 25.4% +13.7 17
1992-07-26 @ Molde L 0-3 1248 1249 25.4% 25.5% 49.1% -13.7 12
1992-07-26 Tromso W 6-1 1414 1264 66.1% 20.2% 13.7% +9.9 29
1992-07-26 @ Rosenborg L 1-6 1264 1414 13.7% 20.2% 66.1% -9.9 13
1992-07-26 Viking D 1-1 1345 1271 58.0% 23.3% 18.7% -1.5 24
1992-07-26 @ Start D 1-1 1271 1345 18.7% 23.3% 58.0% +1.5 10
1992-08-05 Molde L 1-3 1254 1263 47.8% 25.7% 26.5% -13.4 13
1992-08-05 @ Tromso W 3-1 1263 1254 26.5% 25.7% 47.8% +13.4 20
1992-08-09 Start L 0-1 1287 1343 41.4% 26.4% 32.2% -7.4 16
1992-08-09 @ Brann W 1-0 1343 1287 32.2% 26.4% 41.4% +7.4 27
1992-08-09 Lillestrom W 5-2 1319 1404 37.3% 26.5% 36.2% +13.3 26
1992-08-09 @ Kongsvinger L 2-5 1404 1319 36.2% 26.5% 37.3% -13.3 28
1992-08-09 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1290 1219 57.7% 23.4% 18.9% +3.6 26
1992-08-09 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1219 1290 18.9% 23.4% 57.7% -3.6 14
1992-08-09 Rosenborg W 2-0 1277 1424 29.0% 26.1% 45.0% +14.8 23
1992-08-09 @ Molde L 0-2 1424 1277 45.0% 26.1% 29.0% -14.8 29
1992-08-09 Mjondalen L 0-3 1241 1134 61.6% 22.1% 16.4% -27.7 13
1992-08-09 @ Tromso W 3-0 1134 1241 16.4% 22.1% 61.6% +27.7 5
1992-08-09 Sogndal W 3-1 1272 1234 53.7% 24.5% 21.8% +7.1 13
1992-08-09 @ Viking L 1-3 1234 1272 21.8% 24.5% 53.7% -7.1 12
1992-08-16 Tromso W 3-0 1215 1213 49.2% 25.4% 25.3% +13.7 17
1992-08-16 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1213 1215 25.3% 25.4% 49.2% -13.7 13
1992-08-16 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1391 1294 60.5% 22.4% 17.1% -1.7 29
1992-08-16 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1294 1391 17.1% 22.4% 60.5% +1.7 27
1992-08-16 Molde L 0-4 1162 1291 31.2% 26.3% 42.5% -21.2 5
1992-08-16 @ Mjondalen W 4-0 1291 1162 42.5% 26.3% 31.2% +21.2 26
1992-08-16 Rosenborg L 1-3 1227 1409 25.1% 25.4% 49.5% -8.1 12
1992-08-16 @ Sogndal W 3-1 1409 1227 49.5% 25.4% 25.1% +8.1 32
1992-08-16 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1350 1332 51.3% 25.1% 23.6% -8.7 27
1992-08-16 @ Start W 1-0 1332 1350 23.6% 25.1% 51.3% +8.7 29
1992-08-16 Brann D 1-1 1279 1280 48.9% 25.5% 25.6% -0.9 14
1992-08-16 @ Viking D 1-1 1280 1279 25.6% 25.5% 48.9% +0.9 17
1992-08-23 Sogndal D 2-2 1281 1219 56.6% 23.7% 19.7% -1.1 18
1992-08-23 @ Brann D 2-2 1219 1281 19.7% 23.7% 56.6% +1.0 13
1992-08-23 Viking W 4-1 1341 1278 56.6% 23.7% 19.7% +9.2 32
1992-08-23 @ Kongsvinger L 1-4 1278 1341 19.7% 23.7% 56.6% -9.2 14
1992-08-23 Start L 1-2 1296 1342 42.8% 26.3% 30.9% -7.1 27
1992-08-23 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1342 1296 30.9% 26.3% 42.8% +7.1 30
1992-08-23 Hamarkameratene W 4-1 1313 1229 59.1% 22.9% 18.0% +8.4 29
1992-08-23 @ Molde L 1-4 1229 1313 18.0% 22.9% 59.1% -8.4 17
1992-08-23 Mjondalen L 1-2 1417 1141 77.4% 14.5% 8.1% -11.3 32
1992-08-23 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1141 1417 8.1% 14.5% 77.4% +11.3 8
1992-08-23 Lillestrom W 1-0 1199 1389 24.3% 25.2% 50.5% +8.6 16
1992-08-23 @ Tromso L 0-1 1389 1199 50.5% 25.2% 24.3% -8.6 29
1992-08-29 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1269 1289 46.4% 25.9% 27.7% -8.0 14
1992-08-29 @ Viking W 1-0 1289 1269 27.7% 25.9% 46.4% +8.0 30
1992-08-30 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1280 1350 39.4% 26.5% 34.1% -0.2 19
1992-08-30 @ Brann D 0-0 1350 1280 34.1% 26.5% 39.4% +0.2 33
1992-08-30 Rosenborg D 1-1 1221 1406 24.7% 25.3% 50.0% +0.9 18
1992-08-30 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1406 1221 50.0% 25.3% 24.7% -0.9 33
1992-08-30 Molde L 1-2 1380 1321 56.3% 23.8% 19.9% -8.9 29
1992-08-30 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1321 1380 19.9% 23.8% 56.3% +8.9 32
1992-08-30 Mjondalen W 1-0 1220 1152 57.3% 23.5% 19.2% +3.9 16
1992-08-30 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1152 1220 19.2% 23.5% 57.3% -3.9 8
1992-08-30 Tromso W 1-0 1349 1208 65.2% 20.6% 14.2% +2.8 33
1992-08-30 @ Start L 0-1 1208 1349 14.2% 20.6% 65.2% -2.8 16
1992-09-12 Lillestrom W 3-1 1405 1372 53.2% 24.6% 22.2% +7.3 36
1992-09-12 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1372 1405 22.2% 24.6% 53.2% -7.2 29
1992-09-13 Brann D 1-1 1297 1280 51.1% 25.1% 23.8% -1.0 31
1992-09-13 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1280 1297 23.8% 25.1% 51.1% +1.0 20
1992-09-13 Hamarkameratene W 3-2 1148 1222 39.0% 26.5% 34.5% +5.7 11
1992-09-13 @ Mjondalen L 2-3 1222 1148 34.5% 26.5% 39.0% -5.7 18
1992-09-13 Start L 0-1 1330 1352 46.1% 25.9% 28.0% -8.0 32
1992-09-13 @ Molde W 1-0 1352 1330 28.0% 25.9% 46.1% +8.0 36
1992-09-13 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1224 1350 31.6% 26.3% 42.1% +7.4 19
1992-09-13 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1350 1224 42.1% 26.3% 31.6% -7.4 33
1992-09-13 Viking W 1-0 1205 1261 41.4% 26.4% 32.2% +6.1 19
1992-09-13 @ Tromso L 0-1 1261 1205 32.2% 26.4% 41.4% -6.1 14
1992-09-19 Rosenborg L 0-4 1360 1412 41.9% 26.3% 31.8% -26.5 36
1992-09-19 @ Start W 4-0 1412 1360 31.8% 26.3% 41.9% +26.5 39
1992-09-20 Tromso D 1-1 1281 1211 57.4% 23.5% 19.1% -1.5 21
1992-09-20 @ Brann D 1-1 1211 1281 19.1% 23.5% 57.4% +1.5 20
1992-09-20 Sogndal D 2-2 1216 1231 46.9% 25.8% 27.3% -0.5 19
1992-09-20 @ Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1231 1216 27.3% 25.8% 46.9% +0.5 20
1992-09-20 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1343 1296 54.8% 24.2% 21.0% +4.2 36
1992-09-20 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1296 1343 21.0% 24.2% 54.8% -4.2 31
1992-09-20 Mjondalen L 1-2 1364 1154 71.8% 17.5% 10.7% -10.7 29
1992-09-20 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1154 1364 10.7% 17.5% 71.8% +10.7 14
1992-09-20 Molde W 5-0 1255 1322 39.9% 26.4% 33.7% +27.7 17
1992-09-20 @ Viking L 0-5 1322 1255 33.7% 26.4% 39.9% -27.7 32
1992-09-27 Lillestrom L 1-4 1215 1354 30.1% 26.2% 43.7% -13.3 19
1992-09-27 @ Hamarkameratene W 4-1 1354 1215 43.7% 26.2% 30.1% +13.3 32
1992-09-27 Sogndal W 7-3 1291 1232 56.3% 23.8% 19.9% +9.3 34
1992-09-27 @ Lyn Oslo L 3-7 1232 1291 19.9% 23.8% 56.3% -9.3 20
1992-09-27 Start W 1-0 1165 1333 26.6% 25.7% 47.8% +8.2 17
1992-09-27 @ Mjondalen L 0-1 1333 1165 47.8% 25.7% 26.6% -8.2 36
1992-09-27 Brann D 1-1 1294 1279 50.9% 25.1% 24.0% -1.0 33
1992-09-27 @ Molde D 1-1 1279 1294 24.0% 25.1% 50.9% +1.0 22
1992-09-27 Viking W 5-2 1439 1283 66.7% 20.0% 13.4% +5.3 42
1992-09-27 @ Rosenborg L 2-5 1283 1439 13.4% 20.0% 66.7% -5.3 17
1992-09-27 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1213 1347 30.6% 26.2% 43.2% +0.5 21
1992-09-27 @ Tromso D 1-1 1347 1213 43.2% 26.2% 30.6% -0.5 37
1992-10-04 Rosenborg D 1-1 1280 1444 27.1% 25.8% 47.2% +0.7 23
1992-10-04 @ Brann D 1-1 1444 1280 47.2% 25.8% 27.1% -0.7 43
1992-10-04 Molde W 3-0 1347 1293 55.6% 24.0% 20.4% +11.3 40
1992-10-04 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1293 1347 20.4% 24.0% 55.6% -11.2 33
1992-10-04 Tromso W 2-1 1301 1213 59.5% 22.8% 17.7% +3.4 37
1992-10-04 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1213 1301 17.7% 22.8% 59.5% -3.4 21
1992-10-04 Lillestrom L 0-1 1223 1367 29.4% 26.1% 44.5% -5.7 20
1992-10-04 @ Sogndal W 1-0 1367 1223 44.5% 26.1% 29.4% +5.7 35
1992-10-04 Hamarkameratene W 4-0 1325 1202 63.3% 21.4% 15.3% +11.0 39
1992-10-04 @ Start L 0-4 1202 1325 15.3% 21.4% 63.3% -11.0 19
1992-10-04 Mjondalen W 2-1 1278 1173 61.4% 22.1% 16.5% +3.1 20
1992-10-04 @ Viking L 1-2 1173 1278 16.5% 22.1% 61.4% -3.1 17
1992-10-18 Viking D 0-0 1191 1281 36.6% 26.5% 36.9% +0.0 20
1992-10-18 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1281 1191 36.9% 26.5% 36.6% -0.0 21
1992-10-18 Start W 3-2 1372 1336 53.6% 24.5% 21.9% +3.9 38
1992-10-18 @ Lillestrom L 2-3 1336 1372 21.9% 24.5% 53.6% -3.9 39
1992-10-18 Brann D 1-1 1170 1281 33.6% 26.4% 39.9% +0.2 18
1992-10-18 @ Mjondalen D 1-1 1281 1170 39.9% 26.4% 33.6% -0.2 24
1992-10-18 Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1282 1304 46.0% 25.9% 28.0% +5.1 36
1992-10-18 @ Molde L 1-2 1304 1282 28.0% 25.9% 46.0% -5.1 37
1992-10-18 Kongsvinger W 6-0 1443 1358 59.3% 22.9% 17.8% +18.9 46
1992-10-18 @ Rosenborg L 0-6 1358 1443 17.8% 22.9% 59.3% -18.9 40
1992-10-18 Sogndal W 6-0 1210 1217 48.0% 25.7% 26.3% +27.1 24
1992-10-18 @ Tromso L 0-6 1217 1210 26.3% 25.7% 48.0% -27.0 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1992-08-23 8.07% Mjondalen 1141 2 @ Rosenborg 1417 1
2 1992-09-20 10.67% Mjondalen 1154 2 @ Lillestrom 1364 1
3 1992-08-09 16.37% Mjondalen 1134 3 @ Tromso 1241 0
4 1992-05-16 16.82% Hamarkameratene 1204 3 @ Tromso 1304 0
5 1992-08-30 19.91% Molde 1321 2 @ Lillestrom 1380 1
6 1992-06-21 21.33% Molde 1255 3 @ Brann 1298 2
7 1992-06-21 21.73% Tromso 1263 2 @ Kongsvinger 1301 0
8 1992-08-16 23.65% Kongsvinger 1332 1 @ Start 1350 0
9 1992-08-23 24.29% @ Tromso 1199 1 Lillestrom 1389 0
10 1992-08-05 26.52% Molde 1263 3 @ Tromso 1254 1
11 1992-09-27 26.55% @ Mjondalen 1165 1 Start 1333 0
12 1992-08-29 27.71% Lyn Oslo 1289 1 @ Viking 1269 0
13 1992-06-28 27.88% Kongsvinger 1284 2 @ Molde 1263 0
14 1992-09-13 27.99% Start 1352 1 @ Molde 1330 0
15 1992-05-16 28.35% Start 1324 3 @ Kongsvinger 1299 1
16 1992-08-09 28.98% @ Molde 1277 2 Rosenborg 1424 0
17 1992-05-03 29.97% Molde 1298 1 @ Sogndal 1259 0
18 1992-05-31 30.65% Lillestrom 1330 4 @ Molde 1286 0
19 1992-06-21 30.72% Lyn Oslo 1289 2 @ Sogndal 1244 1
20 1992-08-23 30.93% Start 1342 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1296 1
21 1992-09-13 31.62% @ Sogndal 1224 1 Kongsvinger 1350 0
22 1992-09-19 31.80% Rosenborg 1412 4 @ Start 1360 0
23 1992-08-09 32.20% Start 1343 1 @ Brann 1287 0
24 1992-05-10 32.62% Lyn Oslo 1277 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1218 0
25 1992-04-26 33.22% Kongsvinger 1279 2 @ Mjondalen 1216 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-08-09 27.74 Mjondalen 3 1134 16.37% @ Tromso 0 1241 61.57% 22.06%
2 1992-09-20 27.72 @ Viking 5 1255 39.90% Molde 0 1322 33.66% 26.44%
3 1992-05-16 27.48 Hamarkameratene 3 1204 16.82% @ Tromso 0 1304 60.86% 22.32%
4 1992-05-31 27.11 Lillestrom 4 1330 30.65% @ Molde 0 1286 43.11% 26.24%
5 1992-10-18 27.05 @ Tromso 6 1210 48.02% Sogndal 0 1217 26.33% 25.65%
6 1992-09-19 26.50 Rosenborg 4 1412 31.80% @ Start 0 1360 41.86% 26.34%
7 1992-07-08 24.89 @ Rosenborg 6 1379 50.97% Start 0 1363 23.91% 25.12%
8 1992-05-24 23.60 @ Lillestrom 6 1306 52.73% Tromso 0 1276 22.54% 24.74%
9 1992-08-16 21.23 Molde 4 1291 42.47% @ Mjondalen 0 1162 31.24% 26.29%
10 1992-06-08 19.78 @ Kongsvinger 5 1286 52.87% Sogndal 0 1255 22.43% 24.70%
11 1992-05-24 19.31 @ Start 5 1337 53.64% Lyn Oslo 0 1299 21.84% 24.52%
12 1992-10-18 18.86 @ Rosenborg 6 1443 59.28% Kongsvinger 0 1358 17.85% 22.87%
13 1992-06-14 17.73 Lillestrom 4 1356 49.50% @ Mjondalen 0 1175 25.10% 25.40%
14 1992-05-24 17.51 @ Hamarkameratene 3 1231 39.11% Molde 0 1304 34.42% 26.47%
15 1992-06-21 17.09 Tromso 2 1263 21.73% @ Kongsvinger 0 1301 53.78% 24.48%
16 1992-07-05 15.91 @ Sogndal 3 1238 43.39% Tromso 0 1280 30.39% 26.22%
17 1992-06-28 15.10 Kongsvinger 2 1284 27.88% @ Molde 0 1263 46.21% 25.91%
18 1992-08-09 14.78 @ Molde 2 1277 28.98% Rosenborg 0 1424 44.96% 26.06%
19 1992-05-10 14.13 @ Sogndal 4 1252 41.12% Viking 1 1310 32.49% 26.38%
20 1992-05-10 13.74 Lyn Oslo 2 1277 32.62% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1218 40.99% 26.39%
21 1992-07-26 13.71 @ Molde 3 1249 49.15% Sogndal 0 1248 25.39% 25.46%
22 1992-08-16 13.68 @ Hamarkameratene 3 1215 49.24% Tromso 0 1213 25.31% 25.45%
23 1992-04-26 13.58 Kongsvinger 2 1279 33.22% @ Mjondalen 0 1216 40.36% 26.42%
24 1992-08-05 13.43 Molde 3 1263 26.52% @ Tromso 1 1254 47.80% 25.68%
25 1992-09-27 13.31 Lillestrom 4 1354 43.72% @ Hamarkameratene 1 1215 30.09% 26.19%