1991 Tippeligaen Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Viking

41 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Viking

7.85 points above expected

41 points · 33.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

5.62 points below expected

26 points · 31.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viking 22 12 5 5 41 37 27 +10 33.15 +7.85
2 Rosenborg 22 10 6 6 36 38 28 +10 38.72 -2.72
3 Start 22 10 4 8 34 31 21 +10 31.90 +2.10
4 Lyn Oslo 22 8 10 4 34 26 26 0 26.25 +7.75
5 Lillestrom 22 9 4 9 31 31 27 +4 30.03 +0.97
6 Tromso 22 9 4 9 31 28 34 -6 32.58 -1.58
7 Molde 22 7 6 9 27 33 38 -5 28.31 -1.31
8 Kongsvinger 22 7 6 9 27 26 34 -8 28.72 -1.72
9 Sogndal 22 7 6 9 27 22 31 -9 25.32 +1.68
10 Brann 22 6 8 8 26 22 25 -3 31.62 -5.62
11 Fyllingen 22 6 7 9 25 21 21 0 26.56 -1.56
12 Stromsgodset 22 5 6 11 21 30 33 -3 26.05 -5.05

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1419 36 38.72 -2.72 35.5% 17 29 35 39 43 49 58
Viking 1358 41 33.15 +7.85 91.7% 13 23 29 33 37 43 55
Start 1349 34 31.90 +2.10 66.6% 8 22 28 32 36 42 56
Tromso 1331 31 32.58 -1.58 43.6% 11 23 28 33 37 43 54
Lillestrom 1331 31 30.03 +0.97 60.0% 7 20 26 30 34 40 56
Brann 1330 26 31.62 -5.62 19.9% 10 22 27 32 36 42 53
Molde 1308 27 28.31 -1.31 44.6% 7 19 24 28 32 38 51
Fyllingen 1291 25 26.56 -1.56 44.0% 7 17 22 26 31 36 48
Lyn Oslo 1284 34 26.25 +7.75 92.1% 5 17 22 26 30 36 51
Kongsvinger 1283 27 28.72 -1.72 42.7% 9 19 25 29 33 39 54
Stromsgodset 1280 21 26.05 -5.05 22.4% 5 17 22 26 30 36 50
Sogndal 1262 27 25.32 +1.68 65.9% 8 16 21 25 29 35 48

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FYL KON LIL LO MOL ROS SOG STA STR TRO VIK
Brann
0-1-1
3.19
1-1-0
2.91
1-0-1
2.92
1-1-0
3.15
0-2-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
3.23
1-0-1
2.59
2-0-0
3.16
0-1-1
2.67
0-0-2
2.60
Fyllingen
1-1-0
2.25
0-1-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.79
0-2-0
2.51
0-0-2
1.71
2-0-0
2.90
0-0-2
2.34
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.10
Kongsvinger
0-1-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.61
0-2-0
2.85
0-0-2
2.86
0-1-1
1.92
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
3.04
2-0-0
2.39
1-0-1
2.23
Lillestrom
1-0-1
2.51
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.82
0-1-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
2.04
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
2.48
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.53
Lyn Oslo
0-1-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.63
0-2-0
2.58
1-1-0
2.42
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
1.76
1-1-0
2.80
1-1-0
2.29
2-0-0
2.70
0-2-0
2.24
1-1-0
2.03
Molde
0-2-0
2.48
0-2-0
2.93
2-0-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
1.92
1-1-0
2.84
0-0-2
2.56
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
2.26
Rosenborg
1-1-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.80
1-1-0
3.55
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
3.56
1-0-1
3.83
0-1-1
3.39
1-0-1
3.78
1-1-0
3.20
0-1-1
3.26
Sogndal
1-1-0
2.22
0-0-2
2.53
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.59
1-0-1
1.67
2-0-0
2.17
0-2-0
2.70
1-0-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.03
Start
1-0-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.94
0-1-1
3.16
2-0-0
2.89
1-1-0
2.06
0-0-2
3.29
1-1-0
3.25
0-0-2
2.76
1-1-0
2.63
Stromsgodset
0-0-2
2.28
1-1-0
2.66
1-1-0
2.40
0-1-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
1.72
0-2-0
2.73
0-1-1
2.20
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
2.14
Tromso
1-1-0
2.76
1-0-1
3.25
0-0-2
3.05
1-0-1
2.94
0-2-0
3.20
1-0-1
3.10
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
3.35
2-0-0
2.67
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-2
2.77
Viking
2-0-0
2.83
0-1-1
3.35
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
2.90
0-1-1
3.42
2-0-0
3.18
1-1-0
2.19
1-1-0
3.43
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.30
2-0-0
2.66

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.39 +6.2
Allowed 0.09 -3.1
Differential 0.53 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.85%9.85%5.68%3.41%1.52%0.76%31.06%
19.85%12.12%6.06%3.41%1.52%0.38%33.33%
25.68%6.06%4.55%1.89%0.38%0.76%19.32%
33.41%3.41%1.89%0.76%0.38%0.38%10.23%
41.52%1.52%0.38%0.38%3.79%
5+0.76%0.38%0.76%0.38%2.27%
Total31.06%33.33%19.32%10.23%3.79%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.86
CV 0.99 0.99
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%31.82%
19.09%18.18%18.18%45.45%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total31.82%31.82%31.82%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.14 -0.14
SD 0.93 1.04 1.52
CV 0.93 0.91
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%22.73%40.91%
14.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%27.27%
29.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+
Total36.36%36.36%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 0.95 +0.00
SD 0.95 0.90 1.23
CV 1.00 0.94
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%27.27%9.09%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.55 -0.36
SD 1.30 1.47 1.81
CV 1.10 0.95
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%27.27%
113.64%9.09%9.09%31.82%
29.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%40.91%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.23 +0.18
SD 1.40 0.92 1.59
CV 1.00 0.75
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
113.64%31.82%45.45%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total31.82%40.91%9.09%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.18 +0.00
SD 1.10 1.18 1.57
CV 0.93 1.00
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
19.09%4.55%13.64%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total22.73%31.82%18.18%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.73 -0.23
SD 1.41 1.67 2.56
CV 0.94 0.97
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%9.09%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total40.91%22.73%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.27 +0.45
SD 1.64 1.45 2.48
CV 0.95 1.14
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%36.36%
118.18%9.09%9.09%36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total31.82%22.73%36.36%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.41 -0.41
SD 0.98 1.47 1.47
CV 0.98 1.04
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%22.73%4.55%36.36%
118.18%4.55%9.09%31.82%
24.55%4.55%
313.64%13.64%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total36.36%45.45%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 0.95 +0.45
SD 1.56 1.00 1.99
CV 1.11 1.05
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%40.91%
19.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%31.82%27.27%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.50 -0.14
SD 1.73 1.26 2.40
CV 1.27 0.84
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
118.18%18.18%4.55%4.55%45.45%
29.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total27.27%40.91%4.55%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.55 -0.27
SD 0.88 1.65 1.78
CV 0.69 1.07
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
29.09%18.18%27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total36.36%27.27%22.73%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.23 +0.45
SD 1.32 1.27 1.57
CV 0.79 1.03
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Viking 41 33.15 +7.85
2 Lyn Oslo 34 26.25 +7.75
3 Start 34 31.90 +2.10
4 Sogndal 27 25.32 +1.68
5 Lillestrom 31 30.03 +0.97

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 26 31.62 -5.62
2 Stromsgodset 21 26.05 -5.05
3 Rosenborg 36 38.72 -2.72
4 Kongsvinger 27 28.72 -1.72
5 Tromso 31 32.58 -1.58

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 6 Jul 28 – Sep 7 1 in 332
2 Start 4 May 16 – Jun 9 1 in 52
3 Lillestrom 4 Sep 8 – Oct 6 1 in 50
4 Fyllingen 3 Sep 29 – Oct 13 1 in 42
5 Tromso 4 Jun 16 – Jul 7 1 in 38

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 3 Sep 22 – Oct 6 1 in 55
2 Tromso 3 Aug 4 – Aug 18 1 in 46
3 Molde 3 May 20 – Jun 9 1 in 31
4 Start 3 Apr 27 – May 12 1 in 29
5 Lillestrom 3 Jul 21 – Aug 4 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 10 Jul 28 – Oct 13 1 in 278
2 Viking 10 Apr 28 – Jun 30 1 in 41
3 Kongsvinger 6 Apr 28 – May 26 1 in 18
4 Lillestrom 7 Aug 11 – Oct 6 1 in 18
5 Sogndal 4 May 20 – Jun 16 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rosenborg 6 Apr 28 – May 26 1 in 57
2 Brann 8 Jul 28 – Sep 29 1 in 53
3 Molde 7 May 12 – Jun 22 1 in 28
4 Fyllingen 8 Jul 21 – Sep 22 1 in 21
5 Start 6 Sep 1 – Oct 13 1 in 20

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Viking13.11%15.68%13.60%12.11%10.25%8.55%7.01%6.34%4.77%4.21%2.84%1.53%
Rosenborg44.52%20.14%11.80%7.63%5.23%3.77%2.79%1.63%1.19%0.77%0.40%0.13%
Start9.15%12.80%11.95%11.50%10.48%9.50%8.71%7.73%6.58%5.30%3.97%2.33%
Lyn Oslo1.33%2.86%4.05%5.34%6.50%8.11%8.83%10.50%10.90%12.21%14.20%15.17%
Lillestrom4.97%7.73%9.81%9.61%10.70%10.39%9.38%9.58%8.34%7.40%7.25%4.84%
Tromso10.00%12.74%12.59%11.06%10.56%9.32%8.61%7.34%6.03%5.58%3.80%2.37%
Molde2.56%4.63%6.14%7.52%9.09%9.80%10.50%9.94%10.30%10.65%9.69%9.18%
Kongsvinger3.12%5.10%6.75%8.43%8.49%9.52%9.96%10.12%10.49%10.06%9.45%8.51%
Sogndal0.84%1.81%3.14%4.01%5.26%6.41%7.52%9.28%11.00%13.56%15.73%21.44%
Brann7.84%10.68%11.73%11.05%10.43%9.56%9.57%7.92%7.31%5.70%4.82%3.39%
Fyllingen1.45%3.22%4.59%6.11%6.75%8.00%8.65%9.83%11.07%12.21%13.80%14.32%
Stromsgodset1.11%2.61%3.85%5.63%6.26%7.07%8.47%9.79%12.02%12.35%14.05%16.79%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.61%
Slight Edge
41.67%27.27%31.06%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.99 Elo pts.
334 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
01000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.1
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
13%
Viking, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Tight Race
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.74 * Some Luck: 4.74 to 7.11 * Lucky: 7.11 to 9.47 * Wild Swing: 9.47 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.12 * Close: 2.12 to 3.18 * Off: 3.18 to 4.24 * Way Off: 4.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.12 points
As Expected
05.9215
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.17
Close
02.656
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
92.12%
Lyn Oslo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
19.87%
Brann
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.10
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.79
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
71%
Clear Edge
50%71%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.21
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.49
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.49
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.55
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.35
Overconfident
0.1566291.001.84337
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Rosenborg 98.70% 0.77% 0.53%
Viking 91.42% 4.21% 4.37%
Tromso 88.25% 5.58% 6.17%
Start 88.40% 5.30% 6.30%
Brann 86.09% 5.70% 8.21%
Lillestrom 80.51% 7.40% 12.09%
Kongsvinger 71.98% 10.06% 17.96%
Molde 70.48% 10.65% 18.87%
Fyllingen 59.67% 12.21% 28.12%
Lyn Oslo 58.42% 12.21% 29.37%
Stromsgodset 56.81% 12.35% 30.84%
Sogndal 49.27% 13.56% 37.17%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1991-04-27 Start W 1-0 1271 1322 33.6% 28.9% 37.5% +3.7 3
1991-04-27 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1322 1271 37.5% 28.9% 33.6% -3.7 0
1991-04-28 Lillestrom L 1-2 1344 1319 44.4% 28.1% 27.5% -4.0 0
1991-04-28 @ Brann W 2-1 1319 1344 27.5% 28.1% 44.4% +4.0 3
1991-04-28 Fyllingen D 0-0 1303 1282 43.7% 28.2% 28.0% -0.3 1
1991-04-28 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1282 1303 28.0% 28.2% 43.7% +0.3 1
1991-04-28 Molde W 2-0 1272 1326 33.2% 28.9% 37.9% +7.1 3
1991-04-28 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1326 1272 37.9% 28.9% 33.2% -7.1 0
1991-04-28 Tromso D 1-1 1430 1352 51.4% 26.3% 22.3% -0.6 1
1991-04-28 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1352 1430 22.3% 26.3% 51.4% +0.6 1
1991-04-28 Stromsgodset W 5-2 1336 1269 50.0% 26.8% 23.2% +5.1 3
1991-04-28 @ Viking L 2-5 1269 1336 23.2% 26.8% 50.0% -5.1 0
1991-05-04 Rosenborg W 4-1 1318 1429 26.3% 27.8% 45.9% +10.0 3
1991-05-04 @ Molde L 1-4 1429 1318 45.9% 27.8% 26.3% -10.0 1
1991-05-05 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1282 1279 41.3% 28.6% 30.1% +3.2 4
1991-05-05 @ Fyllingen L 0-1 1279 1282 30.1% 28.6% 41.3% -3.2 3
1991-05-05 Viking L 1-2 1323 1342 38.2% 28.9% 33.0% -3.6 3
1991-05-05 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1342 1323 33.0% 28.9% 38.2% +3.6 6
1991-05-05 Kongsvinger L 0-3 1318 1302 43.0% 28.3% 28.6% -11.3 0
1991-05-05 @ Start W 3-0 1302 1318 28.6% 28.3% 43.0% +11.3 4
1991-05-05 Sogndal D 0-0 1264 1275 39.4% 28.8% 31.9% -0.2 1
1991-05-05 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1275 1264 31.9% 28.8% 39.4% +0.1 4
1991-05-05 Brann D 1-1 1353 1340 42.6% 28.4% 29.0% -0.3 2
1991-05-05 @ Tromso D 1-1 1340 1353 29.0% 28.4% 42.6% +0.3 1
1991-05-12 Rosenborg D 1-1 1341 1419 30.0% 28.6% 41.4% +0.2 2
1991-05-12 @ Brann D 1-1 1419 1341 41.4% 28.6% 30.0% -0.2 2
1991-05-12 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1314 1264 47.7% 27.4% 24.9% -0.5 5
1991-05-12 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1264 1314 24.9% 27.4% 47.7% +0.5 2
1991-05-12 Start W 1-0 1276 1307 36.4% 28.9% 34.7% +3.5 6
1991-05-12 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1307 1276 34.7% 28.9% 36.4% -3.5 0
1991-05-12 Fyllingen D 1-1 1329 1286 46.8% 27.6% 25.6% -0.4 4
1991-05-12 @ Molde D 1-1 1286 1329 25.6% 27.6% 46.8% +0.4 5
1991-05-12 Lillestrom L 0-2 1275 1319 34.4% 28.9% 36.6% -6.6 4
1991-05-12 @ Sogndal W 2-0 1319 1275 36.6% 28.9% 34.4% +6.6 6
1991-05-12 Tromso W 2-0 1345 1353 39.7% 28.7% 31.5% +6.2 9
1991-05-12 @ Viking L 0-2 1353 1345 31.5% 28.7% 39.7% -6.2 2
1991-05-16 Molde D 2-2 1341 1328 42.6% 28.4% 29.0% -0.2 3
1991-05-16 @ Brann D 2-2 1328 1341 29.0% 28.4% 42.6% +0.2 5
1991-05-16 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1326 1313 42.6% 28.4% 29.0% -4.1 6
1991-05-16 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1313 1326 29.0% 28.4% 42.6% +4.1 8
1991-05-16 Viking D 0-0 1419 1351 50.1% 26.7% 23.2% -0.6 3
1991-05-16 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1351 1419 23.2% 26.7% 50.1% +0.6 10
1991-05-16 Fyllingen W 1-0 1303 1286 43.2% 28.3% 28.4% +3.0 3
1991-05-16 @ Start L 0-1 1286 1303 28.4% 28.3% 43.2% -3.0 5
1991-05-16 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1265 1279 38.7% 28.8% 32.5% -3.8 2
1991-05-16 @ Stromsgodset W 1-0 1279 1265 32.5% 28.8% 38.7% +3.8 9
1991-05-16 Sogndal W 1-0 1347 1268 51.5% 26.3% 22.2% +2.4 5
1991-05-16 @ Tromso L 0-1 1268 1347 22.2% 26.3% 51.5% -2.4 4
1991-05-20 Stromsgodset L 1-2 1283 1261 44.0% 28.2% 27.9% -4.0 5
1991-05-20 @ Fyllingen W 2-1 1261 1283 27.9% 28.2% 44.0% +4.0 5
1991-05-20 Tromso W 5-3 1317 1349 36.3% 28.9% 34.8% +4.9 11
1991-05-20 @ Kongsvinger L 3-5 1349 1317 34.8% 28.9% 36.3% -4.9 5
1991-05-20 Lillestrom W 3-2 1283 1322 35.3% 28.9% 35.8% +3.2 12
1991-05-20 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1322 1283 35.8% 28.9% 35.3% -3.2 6
1991-05-20 Start L 0-4 1328 1306 43.9% 28.2% 27.9% -15.0 5
1991-05-20 @ Molde W 4-0 1306 1328 27.9% 28.2% 43.9% +15.0 6
1991-05-20 Rosenborg W 3-1 1266 1418 22.2% 26.3% 51.5% +7.7 7
1991-05-20 @ Sogndal L 1-3 1418 1266 51.5% 26.3% 22.2% -7.7 3
1991-05-20 Brann W 2-1 1352 1341 42.4% 28.4% 29.2% +2.9 13
1991-05-20 @ Viking L 1-2 1341 1352 29.2% 28.4% 42.4% -2.9 3
1991-05-26 Sogndal D 0-0 1338 1274 49.7% 26.9% 23.5% -0.6 4
1991-05-26 @ Brann D 0-0 1274 1338 23.5% 26.9% 49.7% +0.6 8
1991-05-26 Fyllingen W 1-0 1319 1279 46.3% 27.7% 25.9% +2.8 9
1991-05-26 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1279 1319 25.9% 27.7% 46.3% -2.8 5
1991-05-26 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1411 1322 52.8% 25.9% 21.3% -0.7 4
1991-05-26 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1322 1411 21.3% 25.9% 52.8% +0.7 12
1991-05-26 Start L 1-3 1265 1321 32.8% 28.8% 38.4% -5.5 5
1991-05-26 @ Stromsgodset W 3-1 1321 1265 38.4% 28.8% 32.8% +5.5 9
1991-05-26 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1344 1286 48.8% 27.1% 24.1% -0.5 6
1991-05-26 @ Tromso D 1-1 1286 1344 24.1% 27.1% 48.8% +0.5 13
1991-05-26 Molde W 3-2 1355 1313 46.6% 27.7% 25.7% +2.5 16
1991-05-26 @ Viking L 2-3 1313 1355 25.7% 27.7% 46.6% -2.5 5
1991-06-09 Tromso W 3-0 1276 1344 31.4% 28.7% 39.9% +10.7 8
1991-06-09 @ Fyllingen L 0-3 1344 1276 39.9% 28.7% 31.4% -10.7 6
1991-06-09 Brann L 1-2 1323 1337 38.8% 28.8% 32.4% -3.6 12
1991-06-09 @ Kongsvinger W 2-1 1337 1323 32.4% 28.8% 38.8% +3.6 7
1991-06-09 Rosenborg L 0-4 1287 1410 25.0% 27.4% 47.6% -9.7 13
1991-06-09 @ Lyn Oslo W 4-0 1410 1287 47.6% 27.4% 25.0% +9.7 7
1991-06-09 Stromsgodset L 0-7 1311 1259 48.0% 27.3% 24.7% -27.2 5
1991-06-09 @ Molde W 7-0 1259 1311 24.7% 27.3% 48.0% +27.2 8
1991-06-09 Viking D 1-1 1274 1357 29.4% 28.5% 42.1% +0.2 9
1991-06-09 @ Sogndal D 1-1 1357 1274 42.1% 28.5% 29.4% -0.2 17
1991-06-09 Lillestrom W 1-0 1327 1322 41.6% 28.5% 29.9% +3.1 12
1991-06-09 @ Start L 0-1 1322 1327 29.9% 28.5% 41.6% -3.1 9
1991-06-16 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1341 1277 49.6% 26.9% 23.5% +7.1 10
1991-06-16 @ Brann L 0-3 1277 1341 23.5% 26.9% 49.6% -7.1 13
1991-06-16 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1318 1286 45.3% 28.0% 26.8% -0.4 10
1991-06-16 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1286 1318 26.8% 28.0% 45.3% +0.4 9
1991-06-16 Fyllingen W 2-1 1420 1287 58.4% 23.6% 18.0% +1.9 10
1991-06-16 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1287 1420 18.0% 23.6% 58.4% -1.9 8
1991-06-16 Molde D 0-0 1274 1284 39.5% 28.8% 31.7% -0.2 10
1991-06-16 @ Sogndal D 0-0 1284 1274 31.7% 28.8% 39.5% +0.2 6
1991-06-16 Start W 3-1 1333 1330 41.2% 28.6% 30.2% +5.2 9
1991-06-16 @ Tromso L 1-3 1330 1333 30.2% 28.6% 41.2% -5.2 12
1991-06-16 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1357 1319 46.1% 27.8% 26.2% +2.8 20
1991-06-16 @ Viking L 0-1 1319 1357 26.2% 27.8% 46.1% -2.8 12
1991-06-22 Lillestrom D 3-3 1284 1318 35.9% 28.9% 35.1% -0.0 7
1991-06-22 @ Molde D 3-3 1318 1284 35.1% 28.9% 35.9% +0.0 11
1991-06-23 Brann D 0-0 1285 1348 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% +0.2 9
1991-06-23 @ Fyllingen D 0-0 1348 1285 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% -0.2 11
1991-06-23 Sogndal W 2-0 1317 1274 46.7% 27.6% 25.7% +5.2 15
1991-06-23 @ Kongsvinger L 0-2 1274 1317 25.7% 27.6% 46.7% -5.2 10
1991-06-23 Viking D 1-1 1270 1360 28.6% 28.3% 43.0% +0.3 14
1991-06-23 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1360 1270 43.0% 28.3% 28.6% -0.3 21
1991-06-23 Tromso L 0-2 1287 1338 33.5% 28.9% 37.6% -6.5 9
1991-06-23 @ Stromsgodset W 2-0 1338 1287 37.6% 28.9% 33.5% +6.5 12
1991-06-24 Rosenborg W 5-0 1325 1421 27.8% 28.2% 44.0% +18.5 15
1991-06-24 @ Start L 0-5 1421 1325 44.0% 28.2% 27.8% -18.5 10
1991-06-30 Start L 0-1 1348 1343 41.4% 28.6% 30.0% -4.0 11
1991-06-30 @ Brann W 1-0 1343 1348 30.0% 28.6% 41.4% +4.0 18
1991-06-30 Molde L 1-4 1322 1284 46.1% 27.8% 26.1% -10.0 15
1991-06-30 @ Kongsvinger W 4-1 1284 1322 26.1% 27.8% 46.1% +10.0 10
1991-06-30 Stromsgodset W 3-0 1403 1280 57.2% 24.1% 18.7% +5.6 13
1991-06-30 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1280 1403 18.7% 24.1% 57.2% -5.6 9
1991-06-30 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1269 1270 40.6% 28.7% 30.7% -7.5 10
1991-06-30 @ Sogndal W 2-0 1270 1269 30.7% 28.7% 40.6% +7.4 17
1991-06-30 Lillestrom W 2-0 1345 1318 44.5% 28.1% 27.4% +5.5 15
1991-06-30 @ Tromso L 0-2 1318 1345 27.4% 28.1% 44.5% -5.5 11
1991-06-30 Fyllingen D 0-0 1360 1285 51.0% 26.5% 22.5% -0.6 22
1991-06-30 @ Viking D 0-0 1285 1360 22.5% 26.5% 51.0% +0.6 10
1991-07-07 Sogndal W 2-1 1286 1261 44.2% 28.1% 27.6% +2.8 13
1991-07-07 @ Fyllingen L 1-2 1261 1286 27.6% 28.1% 44.2% -2.8 10
1991-07-07 Rosenborg W 2-0 1313 1409 27.9% 28.2% 43.9% +7.9 14
1991-07-07 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1409 1313 43.9% 28.2% 27.9% -7.9 13
1991-07-07 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1278 1312 36.0% 28.9% 35.1% -0.0 18
1991-07-07 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1312 1278 35.1% 28.9% 36.0% +0.0 16
1991-07-07 Tromso L 1-2 1294 1350 32.8% 28.8% 38.3% -3.2 10
1991-07-07 @ Molde W 2-1 1350 1294 38.3% 28.8% 32.8% +3.2 18
1991-07-07 Viking W 4-1 1347 1359 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% +7.7 21
1991-07-07 @ Start L 1-4 1359 1347 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% -7.7 22
1991-07-07 Brann L 0-1 1275 1344 31.2% 28.7% 40.1% -3.3 9
1991-07-07 @ Stromsgodset W 1-0 1344 1275 40.1% 28.7% 31.2% +3.3 14
1991-07-21 Kongsvinger L 1-2 1289 1312 37.5% 28.9% 33.6% -3.5 13
1991-07-21 @ Fyllingen W 2-1 1312 1289 33.6% 28.9% 37.5% +3.5 19
1991-07-21 Brann L 0-1 1320 1347 37.0% 28.9% 34.1% -3.7 14
1991-07-21 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1347 1320 34.1% 28.9% 37.0% +3.7 17
1991-07-21 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1291 1278 42.6% 28.4% 29.0% +8.4 13
1991-07-21 @ Molde L 0-3 1278 1291 29.0% 28.4% 42.6% -8.4 18
1991-07-21 Sogndal L 0-1 1355 1259 53.9% 25.5% 20.7% -4.9 21
1991-07-21 @ Start W 1-0 1259 1355 20.7% 25.5% 53.9% +4.9 13
1991-07-21 Viking W 3-1 1271 1351 29.8% 28.5% 41.7% +6.6 12
1991-07-21 @ Stromsgodset L 1-3 1351 1271 41.7% 28.5% 29.8% -6.6 22
1991-07-21 Rosenborg L 0-1 1353 1401 34.1% 28.9% 37.0% -3.5 18
1991-07-21 @ Tromso W 1-0 1401 1353 37.0% 28.9% 34.1% +3.5 16
1991-07-28 Tromso L 1-2 1351 1350 40.9% 28.6% 30.4% -3.8 17
1991-07-28 @ Brann W 2-1 1350 1351 30.4% 28.6% 40.9% +3.8 21
1991-07-28 Start L 1-3 1315 1350 35.8% 28.9% 35.2% -5.9 19
1991-07-28 @ Kongsvinger W 3-1 1350 1315 35.2% 28.9% 35.8% +5.9 24
1991-07-28 Fyllingen W 1-0 1269 1285 38.6% 28.8% 32.6% +3.4 21
1991-07-28 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1285 1269 32.6% 28.8% 38.6% -3.4 13
1991-07-28 Molde W 3-0 1404 1299 55.0% 25.1% 20.0% +6.0 19
1991-07-28 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1299 1404 20.0% 25.1% 55.0% -6.0 13
1991-07-28 Stromsgodset D 2-2 1264 1278 38.8% 28.8% 32.4% -0.1 14
1991-07-28 @ Sogndal D 2-2 1278 1264 32.4% 28.8% 38.8% +0.1 13
1991-07-28 Lillestrom W 2-1 1345 1317 44.7% 28.1% 27.2% +2.8 25
1991-07-28 @ Viking L 1-2 1317 1345 27.2% 28.1% 44.7% -2.8 14
1991-08-04 Molde D 2-2 1282 1293 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% -0.1 14
1991-08-04 @ Fyllingen D 2-2 1293 1282 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% +0.1 14
1991-08-04 Sogndal L 0-1 1314 1263 47.8% 27.4% 24.8% -4.5 14
1991-08-04 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1263 1314 24.8% 27.4% 47.8% +4.5 17
1991-08-04 Brann W 4-0 1410 1347 49.5% 26.9% 23.6% +9.2 22
1991-08-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1347 1410 23.6% 26.9% 49.5% -9.2 17
1991-08-04 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1356 1273 52.2% 26.1% 21.8% -0.7 25
1991-08-04 @ Start D 0-0 1273 1356 21.8% 26.1% 52.2% +0.7 22
1991-08-04 Kongsvinger W 4-0 1278 1309 36.4% 28.9% 34.7% +12.6 16
1991-08-04 @ Stromsgodset L 0-4 1309 1278 34.7% 28.9% 36.4% -12.6 19
1991-08-04 Viking L 0-1 1354 1347 41.7% 28.5% 29.8% -4.0 21
1991-08-04 @ Tromso W 1-0 1347 1354 29.8% 28.5% 41.7% +4.0 28
1991-08-11 Start L 1-3 1282 1355 30.6% 28.6% 40.8% -5.2 14
1991-08-11 @ Fyllingen W 3-1 1355 1282 40.8% 28.6% 30.6% +5.2 28
1991-08-11 Lillestrom L 2-3 1297 1310 39.0% 28.8% 32.2% -3.4 19
1991-08-11 @ Kongsvinger W 3-2 1310 1297 32.2% 28.8% 39.0% +3.4 17
1991-08-11 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1273 1291 38.4% 28.8% 32.8% +5.5 25
1991-08-11 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1291 1273 32.8% 28.8% 38.4% -5.5 16
1991-08-11 Brann D 1-1 1293 1338 34.5% 28.9% 36.6% +0.0 15
1991-08-11 @ Molde D 1-1 1338 1293 36.6% 28.9% 34.5% -0.0 18
1991-08-11 Tromso W 3-2 1268 1350 29.6% 28.5% 41.9% +3.6 20
1991-08-11 @ Sogndal L 2-3 1350 1268 41.9% 28.5% 29.6% -3.6 21
1991-08-11 Rosenborg W 2-1 1351 1419 31.3% 28.7% 40.0% +3.7 31
1991-08-11 @ Viking L 1-2 1419 1351 40.0% 28.7% 31.3% -3.7 22
1991-08-18 Viking L 0-2 1338 1355 38.3% 28.8% 32.8% -7.2 18
1991-08-18 @ Brann W 2-0 1355 1338 32.8% 28.8% 38.3% +7.1 34
1991-08-18 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1313 1279 45.6% 27.9% 26.6% -0.4 18
1991-08-18 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1279 1313 26.6% 27.9% 45.6% +0.4 26
1991-08-18 Sogndal W 6-2 1416 1272 59.8% 23.0% 17.2% +4.7 25
1991-08-18 @ Rosenborg L 2-6 1272 1416 17.2% 23.0% 59.8% -4.7 20
1991-08-18 Molde W 1-0 1361 1293 50.1% 26.7% 23.2% +2.5 31
1991-08-18 @ Start L 0-1 1293 1361 23.2% 26.7% 50.1% -2.5 15
1991-08-18 Fyllingen D 0-0 1285 1276 42.0% 28.5% 29.5% -0.3 17
1991-08-18 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1276 1285 29.5% 28.5% 42.0% +0.3 15
1991-08-18 Kongsvinger L 2-3 1346 1293 48.1% 27.3% 24.6% -4.0 21
1991-08-18 @ Tromso W 3-2 1293 1346 24.6% 27.3% 48.1% +4.0 22
1991-08-31 Tromso D 1-1 1279 1342 32.0% 28.8% 39.2% +0.1 27
1991-08-31 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1342 1279 39.2% 28.8% 32.0% -0.1 22
1991-09-01 Lillestrom D 2-2 1277 1313 35.7% 28.9% 35.4% -0.0 16
1991-09-01 @ Fyllingen D 2-2 1313 1277 35.4% 28.9% 35.7% +0.0 19
1991-09-01 Rosenborg L 1-4 1297 1420 25.0% 27.4% 47.6% -6.3 22
1991-09-01 @ Kongsvinger W 4-1 1420 1297 47.6% 27.4% 25.0% +6.3 28
1991-09-01 Viking L 0-3 1291 1362 30.8% 28.7% 40.5% -8.9 15
1991-09-01 @ Molde W 3-0 1362 1291 40.5% 28.7% 30.8% +8.9 37
1991-09-01 Brann W 2-1 1267 1330 31.9% 28.8% 39.4% +3.7 23
1991-09-01 @ Sogndal L 1-2 1330 1267 39.4% 28.8% 31.9% -3.6 18
1991-09-01 Stromsgodset D 2-2 1363 1285 51.5% 26.3% 22.2% -0.4 32
1991-09-01 @ Start D 2-2 1285 1363 22.2% 26.3% 51.5% +0.4 18
1991-09-07 Sogndal W 4-2 1371 1270 54.4% 25.3% 20.3% +3.3 40
1991-09-07 @ Viking L 2-4 1270 1371 20.3% 25.3% 54.4% -3.3 23
1991-09-08 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1327 1291 45.8% 27.8% 26.4% -0.4 19
1991-09-08 @ Brann D 0-0 1291 1327 26.4% 27.8% 45.8% +0.4 23
1991-09-08 Start W 1-0 1313 1363 33.7% 28.9% 37.4% +3.7 22
1991-09-08 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1363 1313 37.4% 28.9% 33.7% -3.7 32
1991-09-08 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1427 1279 60.2% 22.8% 17.0% -0.7 29
1991-09-08 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1279 1427 17.0% 22.8% 60.2% +0.7 28
1991-09-08 Molde L 0-2 1285 1282 41.3% 28.6% 30.1% -7.5 18
1991-09-08 @ Stromsgodset W 2-0 1282 1285 30.1% 28.6% 41.3% +7.5 18
1991-09-08 Fyllingen W 1-0 1342 1277 49.8% 26.8% 23.4% +2.6 25
1991-09-08 @ Tromso L 0-1 1277 1342 23.4% 26.8% 49.8% -2.6 16
1991-09-21 Tromso L 0-1 1359 1344 42.9% 28.4% 28.7% -4.1 32
1991-09-21 @ Start W 1-0 1344 1359 28.7% 28.4% 42.9% +4.1 28
1991-09-22 Rosenborg L 0-1 1274 1426 22.2% 26.3% 51.5% -2.4 16
1991-09-22 @ Fyllingen W 1-0 1426 1274 51.5% 26.3% 22.2% +2.4 32
1991-09-22 Viking W 2-1 1292 1374 29.4% 28.5% 42.1% +3.8 26
1991-09-22 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1374 1292 42.1% 28.5% 29.4% -3.8 40
1991-09-22 Brann D 1-1 1280 1326 34.2% 28.9% 36.9% +0.0 29
1991-09-22 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1326 1280 36.9% 28.9% 34.2% -0.1 20
1991-09-22 Sogndal W 2-0 1289 1267 43.9% 28.2% 27.9% +5.6 21
1991-09-22 @ Molde L 0-2 1267 1289 27.9% 28.2% 43.9% -5.6 23
1991-09-28 Molde W 1-0 1316 1295 43.8% 28.2% 28.0% +3.0 25
1991-09-28 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1295 1316 28.0% 28.2% 43.8% -3.0 21
1991-09-29 Fyllingen L 0-2 1326 1272 48.4% 27.2% 24.4% -8.5 20
1991-09-29 @ Brann W 2-0 1272 1326 24.4% 27.2% 48.4% +8.5 19
1991-09-29 Start D 1-1 1428 1355 50.9% 26.5% 22.6% -0.6 33
1991-09-29 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1355 1428 22.6% 26.5% 50.9% +0.6 33
1991-09-29 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1262 1295 36.0% 28.9% 35.1% +3.6 26
1991-09-29 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1295 1262 35.1% 28.9% 36.0% -3.6 26
1991-09-29 Stromsgodset W 1-0 1349 1278 50.5% 26.6% 22.9% +2.5 31
1991-09-29 @ Tromso L 0-1 1278 1349 22.9% 26.6% 50.5% -2.5 18
1991-09-29 Lyn Oslo L 3-4 1371 1280 53.1% 25.8% 21.2% -4.2 40
1991-09-29 @ Viking W 4-3 1280 1371 21.2% 25.8% 53.1% +4.2 32
1991-10-02 Lillestrom L 1-2 1275 1319 34.5% 28.9% 36.5% -3.3 18
1991-10-02 @ Stromsgodset W 2-1 1319 1275 36.5% 28.9% 34.5% +3.3 28
1991-10-06 Viking W 2-0 1280 1366 29.0% 28.4% 42.5% +7.7 22
1991-10-06 @ Fyllingen L 0-2 1366 1280 42.5% 28.4% 29.0% -7.7 40
1991-10-06 Tromso W 6-1 1323 1351 36.8% 28.9% 34.3% +12.8 31
1991-10-06 @ Lillestrom L 1-6 1351 1323 34.3% 28.9% 36.8% -12.8 31
1991-10-06 Sogndal D 1-1 1284 1265 43.5% 28.3% 28.2% -0.3 33
1991-10-06 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1265 1284 28.2% 28.3% 43.5% +0.3 27
1991-10-06 Kongsvinger W 3-0 1292 1292 40.8% 28.6% 30.5% +8.8 24
1991-10-06 @ Molde L 0-3 1292 1292 30.5% 28.6% 40.8% -8.8 26
1991-10-06 Brann L 1-3 1355 1318 46.1% 27.8% 26.2% -7.1 33
1991-10-06 @ Start W 3-1 1318 1355 26.2% 27.8% 46.1% +7.1 23
1991-10-06 Rosenborg W 3-0 1272 1428 21.9% 26.1% 52.0% +13.1 21
1991-10-06 @ Stromsgodset L 0-3 1428 1272 52.0% 26.1% 21.9% -13.1 33
1991-10-13 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1325 1285 46.4% 27.7% 25.9% +5.3 26
1991-10-13 @ Brann L 0-2 1285 1325 25.9% 27.7% 46.4% -5.3 21
1991-10-13 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1283 1284 40.7% 28.7% 30.7% -0.2 27
1991-10-13 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1284 1283 30.7% 28.7% 40.7% +0.2 34
1991-10-13 Lillestrom W 2-0 1415 1335 51.7% 26.2% 22.1% +4.6 36
1991-10-13 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1335 1415 22.1% 26.2% 51.7% -4.6 31
1991-10-13 Fyllingen L 1-2 1265 1288 37.6% 28.9% 33.5% -3.5 27
1991-10-13 @ Sogndal W 2-1 1288 1265 33.5% 28.9% 37.6% +3.5 25
1991-10-13 Molde L 1-3 1338 1301 46.0% 27.8% 26.2% -7.1 31
1991-10-13 @ Tromso W 3-1 1301 1338 26.2% 27.8% 46.0% +7.1 27
1991-10-13 Start D 0-0 1359 1348 42.3% 28.5% 29.3% -0.3 41
1991-10-13 @ Viking D 0-0 1348 1359 29.3% 28.5% 42.3% +0.3 34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1991-07-21 20.66% Sogndal 1259 1 @ Start 1355 0
2 1991-09-29 21.16% Lyn Oslo 1280 4 @ Viking 1371 3
3 1991-10-06 21.87% @ Stromsgodset 1272 3 Rosenborg 1428 0
4 1991-05-20 22.17% @ Sogndal 1266 3 Rosenborg 1418 1
5 1991-09-29 24.40% Fyllingen 1272 2 @ Brann 1326 0
6 1991-08-18 24.60% Kongsvinger 1293 3 @ Tromso 1346 2
7 1991-06-09 24.70% Stromsgodset 1259 7 @ Molde 1311 0
8 1991-08-04 24.82% Sogndal 1263 1 @ Lillestrom 1314 0
9 1991-06-30 26.11% Molde 1284 4 @ Kongsvinger 1322 1
10 1991-10-06 26.16% Brann 1318 3 @ Start 1355 1
11 1991-10-13 26.17% Molde 1301 3 @ Tromso 1338 1
12 1991-05-04 26.26% @ Molde 1318 4 Rosenborg 1429 1
13 1991-04-28 27.50% Lillestrom 1319 2 @ Brann 1344 1
14 1991-06-24 27.82% @ Start 1325 5 Rosenborg 1421 0
15 1991-05-20 27.85% Stromsgodset 1261 2 @ Fyllingen 1283 1
16 1991-07-07 27.88% @ Lillestrom 1313 2 Rosenborg 1409 0
17 1991-05-20 27.90% Start 1306 4 @ Molde 1328 0
18 1991-05-05 28.61% Kongsvinger 1302 3 @ Start 1318 0
19 1991-09-21 28.75% Tromso 1344 1 @ Start 1359 0
20 1991-05-16 28.97% Kongsvinger 1313 1 @ Lillestrom 1326 0
21 1991-10-06 29.04% @ Fyllingen 1280 2 Viking 1366 0
22 1991-09-22 29.43% @ Kongsvinger 1292 2 Viking 1374 1
23 1991-08-11 29.58% @ Sogndal 1268 3 Tromso 1350 2
24 1991-08-04 29.77% Viking 1347 1 @ Tromso 1354 0
25 1991-07-21 29.80% @ Stromsgodset 1271 3 Viking 1351 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-06-09 27.19 Stromsgodset 7 1259 24.70% @ Molde 0 1311 47.97% 27.33%
2 1991-06-24 18.51 @ Start 5 1325 27.82% Rosenborg 0 1421 43.98% 28.19%
3 1991-05-20 15.00 Start 4 1306 27.90% @ Molde 0 1328 43.89% 28.21%
4 1991-10-06 13.07 @ Stromsgodset 3 1272 21.87% Rosenborg 0 1428 51.99% 26.13%
5 1991-10-06 12.78 @ Lillestrom 6 1323 36.76% Tromso 1 1351 34.32% 28.91%
6 1991-08-04 12.63 @ Stromsgodset 4 1278 36.35% Kongsvinger 0 1309 34.73% 28.92%
7 1991-05-05 11.31 Kongsvinger 3 1302 28.61% @ Start 0 1318 43.04% 28.35%
8 1991-06-09 10.69 @ Fyllingen 3 1276 31.38% Tromso 0 1344 39.89% 28.74%
9 1991-06-30 10.05 Molde 4 1284 26.11% @ Kongsvinger 1 1322 46.12% 27.77%
10 1991-05-04 10.02 @ Molde 4 1318 26.26% Rosenborg 1 1429 45.93% 27.81%
11 1991-06-09 9.73 Rosenborg 4 1410 47.61% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1287 24.97% 27.42%
12 1991-08-04 9.23 @ Rosenborg 4 1410 49.52% Brann 0 1347 23.57% 26.91%
13 1991-09-01 8.85 Viking 3 1362 40.49% @ Molde 0 1291 30.83% 28.68%
14 1991-10-06 8.78 @ Molde 3 1292 40.85% Kongsvinger 0 1292 30.51% 28.64%
15 1991-09-29 8.51 Fyllingen 2 1272 24.40% @ Brann 0 1326 48.37% 27.23%
16 1991-07-21 8.43 @ Molde 3 1291 42.62% Lyn Oslo 0 1278 28.96% 28.41%
17 1991-07-07 7.90 @ Lillestrom 2 1313 27.88% Rosenborg 0 1409 43.91% 28.21%
18 1991-05-20 7.74 @ Sogndal 3 1266 22.17% Rosenborg 1 1418 51.55% 26.28%
19 1991-10-06 7.72 @ Fyllingen 2 1280 29.04% Viking 0 1366 42.53% 28.43%
20 1991-07-07 7.69 @ Start 4 1347 39.18% Viking 1 1359 32.03% 28.79%
21 1991-09-08 7.55 Molde 2 1282 30.09% @ Stromsgodset 0 1285 41.32% 28.59%
22 1991-06-30 7.46 Lyn Oslo 2 1270 30.72% @ Sogndal 0 1269 40.61% 28.66%
23 1991-08-18 7.15 Viking 2 1355 32.82% @ Brann 0 1338 38.33% 28.85%
24 1991-10-06 7.10 Brann 3 1318 26.16% @ Start 1 1355 46.06% 27.79%
25 1991-10-13 7.10 Molde 3 1301 26.17% @ Tromso 1 1338 46.04% 27.79%