1990 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

44 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Brann

7.76 points above expected

39 points · 31.24 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Moss

12.35 points below expected

13 points · 25.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 22 13 5 4 44 60 24 +36 40.96 +3.04
2 Tromso 22 12 6 4 42 36 21 +15 36.58 +5.42
3 Molde 22 12 4 6 40 34 29 +5 32.95 +7.05
4 Brann 22 11 6 5 39 34 25 +9 31.24 +7.76
5 Viking 22 10 5 7 35 41 30 +11 31.59 +3.41
6 Start 22 9 4 9 31 39 34 +5 29.66 +1.34
7 Fyllingen 22 7 7 8 28 23 30 -7 29.47 -1.47
8 Kongsvinger 22 7 6 9 27 24 32 -8 29.52 -2.52
9 Stromsgodset 22 8 3 11 27 29 45 -16 23.50 +3.50
10 Lillestrom 22 7 4 11 25 30 30 0 36.17 -11.17
11 Valerenga 22 4 4 14 16 26 53 -27 19.63 -3.63
12 Moss 22 3 4 15 13 24 47 -23 25.35 -12.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1521 44 40.96 +3.04 72.3% 20 31 37 41 45 50 59
Tromso 1367 42 36.58 +5.42 83.8% 17 27 33 37 41 46 57
Brann 1351 39 31.24 +7.76 91.9% 10 22 27 31 35 41 56
Viking 1332 35 31.59 +3.41 74.2% 10 22 27 32 36 42 53
Molde 1310 40 32.95 +7.05 89.5% 12 23 29 33 37 43 60
Start 1299 31 29.66 +1.34 62.4% 10 20 26 30 34 39 51
Lillestrom 1291 25 36.17 -11.17 3.7% 14 26 32 36 40 46 56
Kongsvinger 1258 27 29.52 -2.52 36.9% 9 20 25 29 33 39 54
Fyllingen 1213 28 29.47 -1.47 44.1% 10 20 25 29 33 39 50
Stromsgodset 1190 27 23.50 +3.50 76.3% 6 15 20 23 27 33 46
Moss 1150 13 25.35 -12.35 1.9% 6 16 21 25 29 35 47
Valerenga 1114 16 19.63 -3.63 29.1% 3 11 16 19 23 29 44

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FYL KON LIL MOL MOS ROS STA STR TRO VAL VIK
Brann
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.99
1-1-0
2.67
0-1-1
2.59
1-1-0
3.45
1-0-1
1.91
0-1-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.37
2-0-0
2.17
2-0-0
3.82
2-0-0
2.47
Fyllingen
1-1-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.71
0-2-0
2.08
0-1-1
2.32
2-0-0
3.15
0-1-1
1.83
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-2
2.30
1-0-1
3.68
0-0-2
2.79
Kongsvinger
1-1-0
2.55
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-2
2.50
1-0-1
3.25
0-0-2
1.77
1-0-1
2.42
1-1-0
3.32
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
3.62
1-1-0
2.68
Lillestrom
0-1-1
2.88
0-2-0
3.48
1-0-1
3.39
1-0-1
3.02
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
3.23
0-0-2
4.12
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
4.25
0-0-2
3.17
Molde
1-1-0
2.95
1-1-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.52
1-1-0
3.41
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
3.17
1-0-1
3.55
1-1-0
2.37
2-0-0
3.75
0-0-2
3.00
Moss
0-1-1
2.09
0-0-2
2.40
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
2.13
0-1-1
1.82
1-0-1
2.39
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-2
1.81
1-1-0
3.11
0-0-2
2.27
Rosenborg
1-0-1
3.65
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.78
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
3.63
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.92
1-0-1
4.27
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
4.43
0-2-0
3.81
Start
1-1-0
2.69
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
1.65
1-1-0
3.19
0-1-1
2.24
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.59
Stromsgodset
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.24
2-0-0
1.46
1-0-1
2.01
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
1.31
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
1.73
0-1-1
3.41
1-0-1
1.76
Tromso
0-0-2
3.38
2-0-0
3.24
1-1-0
3.10
1-1-0
3.02
0-1-1
3.18
2-0-0
3.77
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.83
2-0-0
4.23
1-1-0
3.20
Valerenga
0-0-2
1.74
1-0-1
1.88
0-1-1
1.94
1-0-1
1.34
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
1.19
0-0-2
1.94
1-1-0
2.13
0-0-2
1.35
1-1-0
1.80
Viking
0-0-2
3.08
2-0-0
2.75
0-1-1
2.89
2-0-0
2.37
2-0-0
2.54
2-0-0
3.29
0-2-0
1.75
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
3.80
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
3.78

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.51 +6.8
Allowed 0.75 -8.7
Differential 0.82 +5.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.58%7.58%5.30%3.03%2.27%25.76%
17.58%10.61%5.30%5.68%2.65%1.52%33.33%
25.30%5.30%3.79%2.65%1.14%1.52%19.70%
33.03%5.68%2.65%0.38%11.74%
42.27%2.65%1.14%6.06%
5+1.52%1.52%0.38%3.41%
Total25.76%33.33%19.70%11.74%6.06%3.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.05
CV 0.93 0.93
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%22.73%
113.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total40.91%31.82%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.14 +0.41
SD 1.34 1.46 1.74
CV 0.86 1.28
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%40.91%
14.55%18.18%4.55%27.27%
29.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total22.73%36.36%27.27%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.36 -0.32
SD 1.13 1.09 1.76
CV 1.08 0.80
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%36.36%
14.55%18.18%4.55%9.09%36.36%
29.09%9.09%
39.09%9.09%18.18%
4
5+
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.45 -0.36
SD 1.11 1.26 2.01
CV 1.02 0.87
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%22.73%4.55%36.36%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%9.09%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total22.73%50.00%4.55%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.36 +0.00
SD 1.43 1.26 2.00
CV 1.05 0.92
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%22.73%
127.27%4.55%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total40.91%18.18%27.27%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.32 +0.23
SD 1.50 1.64 2.14
CV 0.97 1.25
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%9.09%9.09%40.91%
19.09%13.64%9.09%31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total9.09%27.27%27.27%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.14 -1.05
SD 1.31 1.36 1.99
CV 1.20 0.63
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
19.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
213.64%9.09%22.73%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
49.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total31.82%36.36%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.73 1.09 +1.64
SD 1.96 0.97 2.15
CV 0.72 0.89
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%9.09%9.09%40.91%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total27.27%31.82%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.55 +0.23
SD 1.63 1.41 2.22
CV 0.92 0.91
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
29.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total27.27%18.18%18.18%13.64%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.05 -0.73
SD 1.04 1.86 2.00
CV 0.79 0.91
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%4.55%31.82%
19.09%4.55%13.64%
24.55%9.09%13.64%
39.09%22.73%9.09%40.91%
4
5+
Total31.82%50.00%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.95 +0.68
SD 1.33 0.90 1.55
CV 0.81 0.94
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%13.64%9.09%45.45%
24.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
3
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total9.09%31.82%18.18%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 2.41 -1.23
SD 0.96 1.79 2.05
CV 0.81 0.74
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%
19.09%13.64%18.18%4.55%45.45%
29.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%27.27%40.91%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.36 +0.50
SD 1.25 0.95 1.54
CV 0.67 0.70
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 39 31.24 +7.76
2 Molde 40 32.95 +7.05
3 Tromso 42 36.58 +5.42
4 Stromsgodset 27 23.50 +3.50
5 Viking 35 31.59 +3.41

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Moss 13 25.35 -12.35
2 Lillestrom 25 36.17 -11.17
3 Valerenga 16 19.63 -3.63
4 Kongsvinger 27 29.52 -2.52
5 Fyllingen 28 29.47 -1.47

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stromsgodset 2 Aug 2 – Aug 12 1 in 57
2 Brann 4 Sep 2 – Sep 30 1 in 40
3 Molde 4 Jun 24 – Jul 29 1 in 21
4 Viking 3 May 16 – May 27 1 in 13
5 Rosenborg 5 Aug 19 – Sep 23 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Moss 6 Aug 19 – Sep 30 1 in 53
2 Lillestrom 3 Jul 29 – Aug 12 1 in 52
3 Stromsgodset 4 Jun 24 – Jul 29 1 in 18
4 Start 4 May 27 – Jun 17 1 in 16
5 Molde 2 Aug 5 – Aug 12 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 8 May 27 – Jul 29 1 in 57
2 Stromsgodset 5 Aug 2 – Sep 2 1 in 40
3 Fyllingen 6 May 20 – Jun 22 1 in 28
4 Molde 4 May 20 – Jun 10 1 in 11
5 Tromso 7 Jul 29 – Sep 9 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kongsvinger 9 May 27 – Aug 5 1 in 40
2 Moss 7 Jun 10 – Aug 5 1 in 13
3 Tromso 3 Sep 2 – Sep 22 1 in 8
4 Valerenga 8 May 27 – Jul 29 1 in 8
5 Fyllingen 5 May 6 – May 27 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Rosenborg47.32%21.49%12.21%7.57%4.76%2.93%1.89%0.91%0.54%0.26%0.10%0.02%
Tromso17.14%20.40%16.50%13.37%10.30%7.43%5.79%3.93%2.55%1.45%0.88%0.26%
Molde6.61%10.00%12.50%13.23%12.09%11.36%10.06%8.56%7.01%4.70%2.86%1.02%
Brann3.55%6.90%10.02%11.59%11.80%11.65%11.90%10.19%9.13%6.90%4.35%2.02%
Viking4.50%8.16%10.80%11.19%11.71%12.13%11.09%9.58%8.53%6.85%3.85%1.61%
Start2.06%4.35%7.29%8.69%10.47%11.60%11.97%12.66%11.11%9.54%6.79%3.47%
Fyllingen1.83%4.29%6.16%7.86%9.72%10.87%12.24%12.92%12.18%10.68%7.71%3.54%
Kongsvinger1.90%4.37%5.95%7.95%9.80%11.26%11.91%12.84%12.02%10.29%8.12%3.59%
Stromsgodset0.13%0.52%0.92%1.66%2.80%4.07%6.03%9.10%12.76%18.50%24.07%19.44%
Lillestrom14.58%18.40%15.22%13.40%10.99%9.55%6.57%4.84%3.13%2.02%1.01%0.29%
Valerenga0.01%0.11%0.25%0.30%0.79%1.22%2.23%3.79%6.98%11.97%21.40%50.95%
Moss0.37%1.01%2.18%3.19%4.77%5.93%8.32%10.68%14.06%16.84%18.86%13.79%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.52%
Strong Edge
52.27%21.97%25.76%
Elo Value
Home Edge
144 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
094.38400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.70 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.66+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Rosenborg, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.69 * Some Luck: 4.69 to 7.03 * Lucky: 7.03 to 9.37 * Wild Swing: 9.37 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.67 * Close: 1.67 to 2.5 * Off: 2.5 to 3.34 * Way Off: 3.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.28 points
Some Luck
05.8615
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
02.095
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
91.93%
Brann
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.92%
Moss
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.41
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.32
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.85
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.055
Well Within Noise
00.1320.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Rosenborg 99.62% 0.26% 0.12%
Tromso 97.41% 1.45% 1.14%
Lillestrom 96.68% 2.02% 1.30%
Molde 91.42% 4.70% 3.88%
Viking 87.69% 6.85% 5.46%
Brann 86.73% 6.90% 6.37%
Start 80.20% 9.54% 10.26%
Fyllingen 78.07% 10.68% 11.25%
Kongsvinger 78.00% 10.29% 11.71%
Moss 50.51% 16.84% 32.65%
Stromsgodset 37.99% 18.50% 43.51%
Valerenga 15.68% 11.97% 72.35%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1990-04-29 Start W 4-1 1272 1239 54.9% 22.5% 22.6% +17.2 3
1990-04-29 @ Fyllingen L 1-4 1239 1272 22.6% 22.5% 54.9% -17.2 0
1990-04-29 Viking W 1-0 1320 1261 57.7% 22.1% 20.2% +6.7 3
1990-04-29 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1261 1320 20.2% 22.1% 57.7% -6.7 0
1990-04-29 Lillestrom L 1-3 1288 1365 40.8% 23.3% 35.9% -19.6 0
1990-04-29 @ Moss W 3-1 1365 1288 35.9% 23.3% 40.8% +19.6 3
1990-04-29 Tromso D 0-0 1381 1309 59.1% 21.9% 19.0% -2.9 1
1990-04-29 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1309 1381 19.0% 21.9% 59.1% +2.9 1
1990-04-29 Brann L 0-1 1221 1259 46.2% 23.1% 30.7% -13.3 0
1990-04-29 @ Stromsgodset W 1-0 1259 1221 30.7% 23.1% 46.2% +13.3 3
1990-04-29 Molde L 0-1 1187 1295 36.5% 23.3% 40.2% -11.0 0
1990-04-29 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1295 1187 40.2% 23.3% 36.5% +11.0 3
1990-05-06 Kongsvinger L 1-2 1272 1326 44.0% 23.2% 32.8% -12.0 3
1990-05-06 @ Brann W 2-1 1326 1272 32.8% 23.2% 44.0% +12.0 6
1990-05-06 Rosenborg W 2-1 1385 1378 51.9% 22.8% 25.4% +7.7 6
1990-05-06 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1378 1385 25.4% 22.8% 51.9% -7.7 1
1990-05-06 Moss D 1-1 1306 1268 55.4% 22.4% 22.2% -2.1 4
1990-05-06 @ Molde D 1-1 1268 1306 22.2% 22.4% 55.4% +2.1 1
1990-05-06 Valerenga W 6-2 1222 1176 56.4% 22.3% 21.3% +17.9 3
1990-05-06 @ Start L 2-6 1176 1222 21.3% 22.3% 56.4% -17.9 0
1990-05-06 Stromsgodset W 3-0 1312 1207 62.4% 21.3% 16.3% +15.1 4
1990-05-06 @ Tromso L 0-3 1207 1312 16.3% 21.3% 62.4% -15.1 0
1990-05-06 Fyllingen W 1-0 1254 1289 46.6% 23.1% 30.2% +9.5 3
1990-05-06 @ Viking L 0-1 1289 1254 30.2% 23.1% 46.6% -9.5 3
1990-05-13 Brann D 0-0 1279 1260 53.4% 22.6% 24.0% -2.1 4
1990-05-13 @ Fyllingen D 0-0 1260 1279 24.0% 22.6% 53.4% +2.1 4
1990-05-13 Tromso D 0-0 1338 1327 52.4% 22.7% 24.9% -1.9 7
1990-05-13 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1327 1338 24.9% 22.7% 52.4% +1.9 5
1990-05-13 Start W 1-0 1303 1240 58.3% 22.0% 19.7% +6.6 7
1990-05-13 @ Molde L 0-1 1240 1303 19.7% 22.0% 58.3% -6.6 3
1990-05-13 Rosenborg D 2-2 1271 1370 37.6% 23.3% 39.1% +0.1 2
1990-05-13 @ Moss D 2-2 1370 1271 39.1% 23.3% 37.6% -0.1 2
1990-05-13 Lillestrom W 1-0 1192 1393 24.8% 22.7% 52.4% +14.8 3
1990-05-13 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1393 1192 52.4% 22.7% 24.8% -14.8 6
1990-05-13 Viking D 2-2 1158 1264 36.7% 23.3% 40.0% +0.1 1
1990-05-13 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1264 1158 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% -0.1 4
1990-05-16 Valerenga W 1-0 1262 1158 62.3% 21.3% 16.4% +5.5 7
1990-05-16 @ Brann L 0-1 1158 1262 16.4% 21.3% 62.3% -5.5 1
1990-05-16 Kongsvinger W 4-0 1378 1336 55.9% 22.4% 21.8% +25.7 9
1990-05-16 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1336 1378 21.8% 22.4% 55.9% -25.7 7
1990-05-16 Stromsgodset W 6-3 1370 1207 67.4% 20.1% 12.4% +7.8 5
1990-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 3-6 1207 1370 12.4% 20.1% 67.4% -7.8 3
1990-05-16 Moss W 3-0 1233 1271 46.2% 23.1% 30.6% +26.2 6
1990-05-16 @ Start L 0-3 1271 1233 30.6% 23.1% 46.2% -26.2 2
1990-05-16 Fyllingen W 3-0 1329 1277 57.0% 22.2% 20.8% +18.9 8
1990-05-16 @ Tromso L 0-3 1277 1329 20.8% 22.2% 57.0% -18.9 4
1990-05-16 Molde W 2-0 1264 1310 45.1% 23.2% 31.8% +18.6 7
1990-05-16 @ Viking L 0-2 1310 1264 31.8% 23.2% 45.1% -18.6 7
1990-05-20 Rosenborg D 1-1 1258 1378 34.8% 23.3% 41.9% +0.4 5
1990-05-20 @ Fyllingen D 1-1 1378 1258 41.9% 23.3% 34.8% -0.4 6
1990-05-20 Stromsgodset W 2-1 1311 1199 63.0% 21.2% 15.8% +5.0 10
1990-05-20 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1199 1311 15.8% 21.2% 63.0% -5.0 3
1990-05-20 Tromso W 1-0 1291 1348 43.7% 23.2% 33.1% +10.2 10
1990-05-20 @ Molde L 0-1 1348 1291 33.1% 23.2% 43.7% -10.2 8
1990-05-20 Viking L 1-2 1244 1282 46.2% 23.1% 30.7% -12.5 2
1990-05-20 @ Moss W 2-1 1282 1244 30.7% 23.1% 46.2% +12.5 10
1990-05-20 Brann W 3-1 1259 1268 50.0% 22.9% 27.1% +14.2 9
1990-05-20 @ Start L 1-3 1268 1259 27.1% 22.9% 50.0% -14.2 7
1990-05-20 Lillestrom W 1-0 1153 1404 19.8% 22.1% 58.1% +16.3 4
1990-05-20 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1404 1153 58.1% 22.1% 19.8% -16.3 9
1990-05-27 Molde D 0-0 1254 1302 44.8% 23.2% 32.0% -0.9 8
1990-05-27 @ Brann D 0-0 1302 1254 32.0% 23.2% 44.8% +0.9 11
1990-05-27 Fyllingen D 1-1 1387 1259 64.5% 20.9% 14.6% -3.3 10
1990-05-27 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1259 1387 14.6% 20.9% 64.5% +3.3 6
1990-05-27 Kongsvinger W 2-0 1378 1316 58.1% 22.1% 19.8% +12.5 9
1990-05-27 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1316 1378 19.8% 22.1% 58.1% -12.5 10
1990-05-27 Moss W 1-0 1194 1232 46.2% 23.1% 30.6% +9.6 6
1990-05-27 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1232 1194 30.6% 23.1% 46.2% -9.6 2
1990-05-27 Valerenga W 3-1 1338 1169 67.9% 20.0% 12.1% +6.7 11
1990-05-27 @ Tromso L 1-3 1169 1338 12.1% 20.0% 67.9% -6.7 4
1990-05-27 Start W 2-0 1295 1273 53.6% 22.6% 23.8% +14.6 13
1990-05-27 @ Viking L 0-2 1273 1295 23.8% 22.6% 53.6% -14.6 9
1990-06-04 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1262 1204 57.7% 22.1% 20.2% +12.7 9
1990-06-04 @ Fyllingen L 0-2 1204 1262 20.2% 22.1% 57.7% -12.7 6
1990-06-04 Lillestrom W 3-2 1302 1384 40.2% 23.3% 36.5% +9.8 14
1990-06-04 @ Molde L 2-3 1384 1302 36.5% 23.3% 40.2% -9.9 10
1990-06-04 Kongsvinger W 3-0 1222 1303 40.3% 23.3% 36.4% +30.1 5
1990-06-04 @ Moss L 0-3 1303 1222 36.4% 23.3% 40.3% -30.1 10
1990-06-04 Tromso L 1-3 1259 1345 39.6% 23.3% 37.1% -19.1 9
1990-06-04 @ Start W 3-1 1345 1259 37.1% 23.3% 39.6% +19.2 14
1990-06-04 Rosenborg L 1-6 1162 1390 22.0% 22.4% 55.6% -26.5 4
1990-06-04 @ Valerenga W 6-1 1390 1162 55.6% 22.4% 22.0% +26.5 12
1990-06-04 Brann L 1-2 1309 1253 57.6% 22.1% 20.3% -15.2 13
1990-06-04 @ Viking W 2-1 1253 1309 20.3% 22.1% 57.6% +15.2 11
1990-06-10 Moss D 0-0 1268 1252 52.9% 22.7% 24.4% -2.0 12
1990-06-10 @ Brann D 0-0 1252 1268 24.4% 22.7% 52.9% +2.0 6
1990-06-10 Fyllingen D 1-1 1273 1275 50.8% 22.9% 26.3% -1.5 11
1990-06-10 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1275 1273 26.3% 22.9% 50.8% +1.5 10
1990-06-10 Start W 1-0 1374 1240 65.0% 20.8% 14.2% +4.8 13
1990-06-10 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1240 1374 14.2% 20.8% 65.0% -4.8 9
1990-06-10 Molde L 0-1 1417 1312 62.3% 21.3% 16.3% -17.4 12
1990-06-10 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1312 1417 16.3% 21.3% 62.3% +17.4 17
1990-06-10 Valerenga D 2-2 1191 1136 57.4% 22.2% 20.4% -1.8 7
1990-06-10 @ Stromsgodset D 2-2 1136 1191 20.4% 22.2% 57.4% +1.8 5
1990-06-10 Viking W 3-1 1364 1294 58.9% 21.9% 19.2% +10.5 17
1990-06-10 @ Tromso L 1-3 1294 1364 19.2% 21.9% 58.9% -10.5 13
1990-06-17 Tromso W 3-0 1266 1374 36.4% 23.3% 40.4% +32.6 15
1990-06-17 @ Brann L 0-3 1374 1266 40.4% 23.3% 36.4% -32.6 17
1990-06-17 Stromsgodset L 0-2 1330 1189 65.5% 20.6% 13.8% -34.3 17
1990-06-17 @ Molde W 2-0 1189 1330 13.8% 20.6% 65.5% +34.3 10
1990-06-17 Fyllingen L 1-2 1254 1276 48.3% 23.0% 28.7% -13.0 6
1990-06-17 @ Moss W 2-1 1276 1254 28.7% 23.0% 48.3% +13.0 13
1990-06-17 Rosenborg L 2-4 1235 1399 29.0% 23.1% 48.0% -13.4 9
1990-06-17 @ Start W 4-2 1399 1235 48.0% 23.1% 29.0% +13.4 15
1990-06-17 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1138 1272 32.9% 23.2% 43.9% +0.7 6
1990-06-17 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1272 1138 43.9% 23.2% 32.9% -0.7 12
1990-06-17 Lillestrom W 1-0 1284 1379 38.2% 23.3% 38.5% +11.5 16
1990-06-17 @ Viking L 0-1 1379 1284 38.5% 23.3% 38.2% -11.5 13
1990-06-22 Valerenga W 2-0 1289 1138 66.5% 20.4% 13.2% +8.4 16
1990-06-22 @ Fyllingen L 0-2 1138 1289 13.2% 20.4% 66.5% -8.4 6
1990-06-22 Viking D 2-2 1413 1295 63.5% 21.1% 15.4% -2.4 16
1990-06-22 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1295 1413 15.4% 21.1% 63.5% +2.4 17
1990-06-24 Molde L 1-3 1271 1295 47.9% 23.1% 29.0% -22.4 12
1990-06-24 @ Kongsvinger W 3-1 1295 1271 29.0% 23.1% 47.9% +22.4 20
1990-06-24 Brann D 1-1 1368 1298 58.8% 21.9% 19.2% -2.6 14
1990-06-24 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1298 1368 19.2% 21.9% 58.8% +2.6 16
1990-06-24 Tromso L 1-2 1241 1342 37.5% 23.3% 39.2% -10.6 6
1990-06-24 @ Moss W 2-1 1342 1241 39.2% 23.3% 37.5% +10.6 20
1990-06-24 Start L 1-5 1224 1221 51.3% 22.8% 25.9% -43.3 10
1990-06-24 @ Stromsgodset W 5-1 1221 1224 25.9% 22.8% 51.3% +43.3 12
1990-07-15 Rosenborg W 3-1 1301 1410 36.2% 23.3% 40.5% +19.5 19
1990-07-15 @ Brann L 1-3 1410 1301 40.5% 23.3% 36.2% -19.5 16
1990-07-15 Fyllingen W 2-0 1318 1298 53.4% 22.6% 23.9% +14.7 23
1990-07-15 @ Molde L 0-2 1298 1318 23.9% 22.6% 53.4% -14.7 16
1990-07-15 Kongsvinger W 4-0 1265 1249 53.0% 22.7% 24.3% +28.3 15
1990-07-15 @ Start L 0-4 1249 1265 24.3% 22.7% 53.0% -28.3 12
1990-07-15 Lillestrom W 2-1 1352 1365 49.5% 23.0% 27.6% +8.3 23
1990-07-15 @ Tromso L 1-2 1365 1352 27.6% 23.0% 49.5% -8.3 14
1990-07-15 Moss D 1-1 1130 1231 37.4% 23.3% 39.3% +0.1 7
1990-07-15 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1231 1130 39.3% 23.3% 37.4% -0.1 7
1990-07-15 Stromsgodset W 4-0 1298 1180 63.5% 21.1% 15.4% +18.7 20
1990-07-15 @ Viking L 0-4 1180 1298 15.4% 21.1% 63.5% -18.7 10
1990-07-22 Stromsgodset W 5-2 1321 1162 67.1% 20.2% 12.7% +8.6 22
1990-07-22 @ Brann L 2-5 1162 1321 12.7% 20.2% 67.1% -8.6 10
1990-07-22 Moss W 4-0 1357 1231 64.3% 20.9% 14.8% +18.0 17
1990-07-22 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1231 1357 14.8% 20.9% 64.3% -18.0 7
1990-07-22 Valerenga W 4-1 1333 1130 70.5% 19.2% 10.3% +8.1 26
1990-07-22 @ Molde L 1-4 1130 1333 10.3% 19.2% 70.5% -8.1 7
1990-07-22 Fyllingen D 1-1 1293 1283 52.2% 22.7% 25.0% -1.7 16
1990-07-22 @ Start D 1-1 1283 1293 25.0% 22.7% 52.2% +1.7 17
1990-07-22 Rosenborg L 1-3 1361 1391 47.2% 23.1% 29.7% -22.1 23
1990-07-22 @ Tromso W 3-1 1391 1361 29.7% 23.1% 47.2% +22.1 19
1990-07-22 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1316 1220 61.5% 21.5% 17.0% -2.9 21
1990-07-22 @ Viking D 1-1 1220 1316 17.0% 21.5% 61.5% +2.9 13
1990-07-29 Viking L 1-3 1285 1313 47.4% 23.1% 29.5% -22.2 17
1990-07-29 @ Fyllingen W 3-1 1313 1285 29.5% 23.1% 47.4% +22.2 24
1990-07-29 Brann D 1-1 1223 1329 36.7% 23.3% 40.0% +0.2 14
1990-07-29 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1329 1223 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% -0.2 23
1990-07-29 Molde L 0-1 1213 1341 33.7% 23.2% 43.1% -10.3 7
1990-07-29 @ Moss W 1-0 1341 1213 43.1% 23.2% 33.7% +10.3 29
1990-07-29 Lillestrom W 3-0 1413 1375 55.5% 22.4% 22.1% +19.9 22
1990-07-29 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1375 1413 22.1% 22.4% 55.5% -19.9 17
1990-07-29 Tromso L 2-3 1153 1338 26.5% 22.9% 50.6% -7.6 10
1990-07-29 @ Stromsgodset W 3-2 1338 1153 50.6% 22.9% 26.5% +7.6 26
1990-07-29 Start L 0-1 1122 1291 28.4% 23.0% 48.6% -9.0 7
1990-07-29 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1291 1122 48.6% 23.0% 28.4% +9.0 19
1990-08-02 Stromsgodset L 0-1 1355 1145 70.9% 19.1% 10.0% -19.5 17
1990-08-02 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1145 1355 10.0% 19.1% 70.9% +19.5 13
1990-08-05 Fyllingen L 2-3 1329 1263 58.6% 22.0% 19.4% -14.7 23
1990-08-05 @ Brann W 3-2 1263 1329 19.4% 22.0% 58.6% +14.6 20
1990-08-05 Moss W 4-0 1433 1202 72.4% 18.5% 9.1% +10.9 25
1990-08-05 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1202 1433 9.1% 18.5% 72.4% -10.9 7
1990-08-05 Molde W 2-0 1300 1351 44.5% 23.2% 32.3% +18.9 22
1990-08-05 @ Start L 0-2 1351 1300 32.3% 23.2% 44.5% -18.9 29
1990-08-05 Kongsvinger W 3-1 1346 1223 64.0% 21.0% 15.0% +8.3 29
1990-08-05 @ Tromso L 1-3 1223 1346 15.0% 21.0% 64.0% -8.3 14
1990-08-05 Valerenga L 1-2 1336 1113 71.9% 18.7% 9.4% -18.6 24
1990-08-05 @ Viking W 2-1 1113 1336 9.4% 18.7% 71.9% +18.6 10
1990-08-12 Tromso L 0-2 1277 1354 40.8% 23.3% 35.9% -22.6 20
1990-08-12 @ Fyllingen W 2-0 1354 1277 35.9% 23.3% 40.8% +22.6 32
1990-08-12 Lillestrom W 3-1 1215 1335 34.7% 23.3% 42.0% +20.1 17
1990-08-12 @ Kongsvinger L 1-3 1335 1215 42.0% 23.3% 34.7% -20.1 17
1990-08-12 Viking L 2-3 1332 1317 52.9% 22.7% 24.5% -13.4 29
1990-08-12 @ Molde W 3-2 1317 1332 24.5% 22.7% 52.9% +13.3 27
1990-08-12 Start W 3-2 1191 1319 33.7% 23.2% 43.1% +11.2 10
1990-08-12 @ Moss L 2-3 1319 1191 43.1% 23.2% 33.7% -11.2 22
1990-08-12 Rosenborg W 2-1 1165 1444 17.4% 21.6% 61.0% +16.0 16
1990-08-12 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1444 1165 61.0% 21.6% 17.4% -16.0 25
1990-08-12 Brann L 1-2 1131 1314 26.8% 22.9% 50.3% -8.1 10
1990-08-12 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1314 1131 50.3% 22.9% 26.8% +8.1 26
1990-08-19 Start D 0-0 1322 1308 52.8% 22.7% 24.5% -2.0 27
1990-08-19 @ Brann D 0-0 1308 1322 24.5% 22.7% 52.8% +2.0 23
1990-08-19 Valerenga W 4-1 1315 1123 69.7% 19.5% 10.9% +8.5 20
1990-08-19 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1123 1315 10.9% 19.5% 69.7% -8.5 10
1990-08-19 Fyllingen W 4-0 1428 1255 68.2% 19.9% 11.9% +14.5 28
1990-08-19 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1255 1428 11.9% 19.9% 68.2% -14.5 20
1990-08-19 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1181 1235 44.0% 23.2% 32.8% -0.8 17
1990-08-19 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1235 1181 32.8% 23.2% 44.0% +0.8 18
1990-08-19 Molde D 0-0 1377 1319 57.7% 22.1% 20.2% -2.7 33
1990-08-19 @ Tromso D 0-0 1319 1377 20.2% 22.1% 57.7% +2.7 30
1990-08-19 Moss W 5-2 1330 1203 64.4% 20.9% 14.7% +10.0 30
1990-08-19 @ Viking L 2-5 1203 1330 14.7% 20.9% 64.4% -10.0 10
1990-08-26 Lillestrom D 0-0 1240 1324 39.9% 23.3% 36.8% -0.2 21
1990-08-26 @ Fyllingen D 0-0 1324 1240 36.8% 23.3% 39.9% +0.2 21
1990-08-26 Rosenborg L 0-2 1236 1442 24.2% 22.7% 53.1% -14.9 18
1990-08-26 @ Kongsvinger W 2-0 1442 1236 53.1% 22.7% 24.2% +14.8 31
1990-08-26 Brann W 6-2 1321 1320 51.2% 22.8% 26.0% +21.2 33
1990-08-26 @ Molde L 2-6 1320 1321 26.0% 22.8% 51.2% -21.2 27
1990-08-26 Stromsgodset L 2-4 1193 1180 52.6% 22.7% 24.7% -21.7 10
1990-08-26 @ Moss W 4-2 1180 1193 24.7% 22.7% 52.6% +21.7 20
1990-08-26 Viking W 3-2 1310 1340 47.2% 23.1% 29.7% +8.4 26
1990-08-26 @ Start L 2-3 1340 1310 29.7% 23.1% 47.2% -8.4 30
1990-08-26 Tromso L 2-3 1115 1374 19.1% 21.9% 59.0% -5.7 10
1990-08-26 @ Valerenga W 3-2 1374 1115 59.0% 21.9% 19.1% +5.7 36
1990-09-02 Viking W 2-1 1299 1332 46.9% 23.1% 30.0% +8.9 30
1990-09-02 @ Brann L 1-2 1332 1299 30.0% 23.1% 46.9% -8.9 30
1990-09-02 Moss W 3-0 1221 1171 56.8% 22.2% 20.9% +19.0 21
1990-09-02 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1171 1221 20.9% 22.2% 56.8% -19.0 10
1990-09-02 Molde W 3-1 1324 1343 48.7% 23.0% 28.3% +14.7 24
1990-09-02 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1343 1324 28.3% 23.0% 48.7% -14.7 33
1990-09-02 Valerenga W 4-1 1457 1109 79.4% 15.4% 5.2% +3.8 34
1990-09-02 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1109 1457 5.2% 15.4% 79.4% -3.8 10
1990-09-02 Fyllingen W 2-0 1202 1240 46.2% 23.1% 30.7% +18.1 23
1990-09-02 @ Stromsgodset L 0-2 1240 1202 30.7% 23.1% 46.2% -18.1 21
1990-09-02 Start D 1-1 1380 1318 58.1% 22.1% 19.9% -2.5 37
1990-09-02 @ Tromso D 1-1 1318 1380 19.9% 22.1% 58.1% +2.5 27
1990-09-08 Rosenborg L 1-7 1328 1461 33.0% 23.2% 43.8% -44.0 33
1990-09-08 @ Molde W 7-1 1461 1328 43.8% 23.2% 33.0% +44.0 37
1990-09-09 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1222 1240 48.8% 23.0% 28.2% +8.5 24
1990-09-09 @ Fyllingen L 1-2 1240 1222 28.2% 23.0% 48.8% -8.5 21
1990-09-09 Brann L 0-2 1152 1308 30.0% 23.1% 46.9% -17.8 10
1990-09-09 @ Moss W 2-0 1308 1152 46.9% 23.1% 30.0% +17.8 33
1990-09-09 Lillestrom W 1-0 1321 1339 48.8% 23.0% 28.2% +9.0 30
1990-09-09 @ Start L 0-1 1339 1321 28.2% 23.0% 48.8% -9.0 24
1990-09-09 Stromsgodset W 4-1 1105 1220 35.5% 23.3% 41.2% +28.0 13
1990-09-09 @ Valerenga L 1-4 1220 1105 41.2% 23.3% 35.5% -28.0 23
1990-09-09 Tromso D 1-1 1323 1378 44.0% 23.2% 32.8% -0.7 31
1990-09-09 @ Viking D 1-1 1378 1323 32.8% 23.2% 44.0% +0.7 38
1990-09-22 Brann L 0-1 1378 1326 57.1% 22.2% 20.7% -16.0 38
1990-09-22 @ Tromso W 1-0 1326 1378 20.7% 22.2% 57.1% +16.0 36
1990-09-23 Moss W 1-0 1230 1134 61.5% 21.5% 17.0% +5.7 27
1990-09-23 @ Fyllingen L 0-1 1134 1230 17.0% 21.5% 61.5% -5.7 10
1990-09-23 Valerenga W 3-0 1232 1133 61.8% 21.4% 16.8% +15.5 24
1990-09-23 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1133 1232 16.8% 21.4% 61.8% -15.5 13
1990-09-23 Viking L 2-4 1330 1322 51.9% 22.8% 25.3% -21.5 24
1990-09-23 @ Lillestrom W 4-2 1322 1330 25.3% 22.8% 51.9% +21.5 34
1990-09-23 Start W 4-1 1505 1330 68.4% 19.9% 11.8% +9.2 40
1990-09-23 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1330 1505 11.8% 19.9% 68.4% -9.2 30
1990-09-23 Molde L 1-3 1192 1284 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% -18.8 23
1990-09-23 @ Stromsgodset W 3-1 1284 1192 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% +18.8 36
1990-09-30 Lillestrom W 4-1 1342 1308 55.0% 22.5% 22.5% +17.1 39
1990-09-30 @ Brann L 1-4 1308 1342 22.5% 22.5% 55.0% -17.1 24
1990-09-30 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1303 1247 57.4% 22.2% 20.4% +6.8 39
1990-09-30 @ Molde L 0-1 1247 1303 20.4% 22.2% 57.4% -6.8 24
1990-09-30 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1321 1173 66.1% 20.5% 13.4% -3.6 31
1990-09-30 @ Start D 1-1 1173 1321 13.4% 20.5% 66.1% +3.5 24
1990-09-30 Moss W 3-1 1362 1129 72.6% 18.4% 8.9% +4.9 41
1990-09-30 @ Tromso L 1-3 1129 1362 8.9% 18.4% 72.6% -4.9 10
1990-09-30 Fyllingen W 2-0 1118 1236 35.0% 23.3% 41.8% +23.1 16
1990-09-30 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1236 1118 41.8% 23.3% 35.0% -23.1 27
1990-09-30 Rosenborg D 1-1 1344 1514 28.3% 23.0% 48.7% +1.3 35
1990-09-30 @ Viking D 1-1 1514 1344 48.7% 23.0% 28.3% -1.3 41
1990-10-07 Molde D 2-2 1213 1310 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% +0.0 28
1990-10-07 @ Fyllingen D 2-2 1310 1213 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% -0.0 40
1990-10-07 Start W 3-1 1240 1317 40.9% 23.3% 35.9% +17.7 27
1990-10-07 @ Kongsvinger L 1-3 1317 1240 35.9% 23.3% 40.9% -17.7 31
1990-10-07 Tromso D 0-0 1291 1367 41.0% 23.3% 35.8% -0.3 25
1990-10-07 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1367 1291 35.8% 23.3% 41.0% +0.4 42
1990-10-07 Valerenga W 5-1 1124 1141 48.9% 23.0% 28.1% +26.6 13
1990-10-07 @ Moss L 1-5 1141 1124 28.1% 23.0% 48.9% -26.7 16
1990-10-07 Brann W 2-0 1513 1359 66.7% 20.3% 13.0% +8.3 44
1990-10-07 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1359 1513 13.0% 20.3% 66.7% -8.3 39
1990-10-07 Viking W 2-1 1177 1345 28.5% 23.0% 48.5% +13.0 27
1990-10-07 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1345 1177 48.5% 23.0% 28.5% -13.0 35

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1990-08-05 9.40% Valerenga 1113 2 @ Viking 1336 1
2 1990-08-02 10.01% Stromsgodset 1145 1 @ Lillestrom 1355 0
3 1990-06-17 13.83% Stromsgodset 1189 2 @ Molde 1330 0
4 1990-06-10 16.33% Molde 1312 1 @ Rosenborg 1417 0
5 1990-08-12 17.44% @ Stromsgodset 1165 2 Rosenborg 1444 1
6 1990-08-05 19.45% Fyllingen 1263 3 @ Brann 1329 2
7 1990-05-20 19.82% @ Valerenga 1153 1 Lillestrom 1404 0
8 1990-06-04 20.31% Brann 1253 2 @ Viking 1309 1
9 1990-09-22 20.72% Brann 1326 1 @ Tromso 1378 0
10 1990-08-12 24.46% Viking 1317 3 @ Molde 1332 2
11 1990-08-26 24.73% Stromsgodset 1180 4 @ Moss 1193 2
12 1990-05-13 24.82% @ Stromsgodset 1192 1 Lillestrom 1393 0
13 1990-09-23 25.32% Viking 1322 4 @ Lillestrom 1330 2
14 1990-06-24 25.88% Start 1221 5 @ Stromsgodset 1224 1
15 1990-10-07 28.51% @ Stromsgodset 1177 2 Viking 1345 1
16 1990-06-17 28.70% Fyllingen 1276 2 @ Moss 1254 1
17 1990-06-24 29.01% Molde 1295 3 @ Kongsvinger 1271 1
18 1990-07-29 29.50% Viking 1313 3 @ Fyllingen 1285 1
19 1990-07-22 29.73% Rosenborg 1391 3 @ Tromso 1361 1
20 1990-05-20 30.68% Viking 1282 2 @ Moss 1244 1
21 1990-04-29 30.71% Brann 1259 1 @ Stromsgodset 1221 0
22 1990-05-06 32.78% Kongsvinger 1326 2 @ Brann 1272 1
23 1990-08-12 33.69% @ Moss 1191 3 Start 1319 2
24 1990-08-12 34.73% @ Kongsvinger 1215 3 Lillestrom 1335 1
25 1990-09-30 34.96% @ Valerenga 1118 2 Fyllingen 1236 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1990-09-08 43.97 Rosenborg 7 1461 43.77% @ Molde 1 1328 33.00% 23.22%
2 1990-06-24 43.35 Start 5 1221 25.88% @ Stromsgodset 1 1224 51.30% 22.82%
3 1990-06-17 34.27 Stromsgodset 2 1189 13.83% @ Molde 0 1330 65.54% 20.63%
4 1990-06-17 32.59 @ Brann 3 1266 36.36% Tromso 0 1374 40.35% 23.29%
5 1990-06-04 30.12 @ Moss 3 1222 40.26% Kongsvinger 0 1303 36.44% 23.29%
6 1990-07-15 28.31 @ Start 4 1265 53.00% Kongsvinger 0 1249 24.33% 22.67%
7 1990-09-09 27.97 @ Valerenga 4 1105 35.48% Stromsgodset 1 1220 41.24% 23.28%
8 1990-10-07 26.65 @ Moss 5 1124 48.89% Valerenga 1 1141 28.12% 22.99%
9 1990-06-04 26.45 Rosenborg 6 1390 55.64% @ Valerenga 1 1162 21.97% 22.39%
10 1990-05-16 26.25 @ Start 3 1233 46.24% Moss 0 1271 30.63% 23.13%
11 1990-05-16 25.68 @ Lillestrom 4 1378 55.90% Kongsvinger 0 1336 21.75% 22.36%
12 1990-09-30 23.07 @ Valerenga 2 1118 34.96% Fyllingen 0 1236 41.77% 23.27%
13 1990-08-12 22.65 Tromso 2 1354 35.89% @ Fyllingen 0 1277 40.82% 23.29%
14 1990-06-24 22.39 Molde 3 1295 29.01% @ Kongsvinger 1 1271 47.95% 23.05%
15 1990-07-29 22.18 Viking 3 1313 29.50% @ Fyllingen 1 1285 47.42% 23.08%
16 1990-07-22 22.09 Rosenborg 3 1391 29.73% @ Tromso 1 1361 47.19% 23.09%
17 1990-08-26 21.70 Stromsgodset 4 1180 24.73% @ Moss 2 1193 52.56% 22.71%
18 1990-09-23 21.46 Viking 4 1322 25.32% @ Lillestrom 2 1330 51.92% 22.77%
19 1990-08-26 21.18 @ Molde 6 1321 51.17% Brann 2 1320 26.00% 22.83%
20 1990-08-12 20.06 @ Kongsvinger 3 1215 34.73% Lillestrom 1 1335 42.01% 23.27%
21 1990-07-29 19.91 @ Rosenborg 3 1413 55.53% Lillestrom 0 1375 22.06% 22.40%
22 1990-04-29 19.59 Lillestrom 3 1365 35.95% @ Moss 1 1288 40.77% 23.29%
23 1990-08-02 19.49 Stromsgodset 1 1145 10.01% @ Lillestrom 0 1355 70.93% 19.06%
24 1990-07-15 19.48 @ Brann 3 1301 36.23% Rosenborg 1 1410 40.48% 23.29%
25 1990-06-04 19.15 Tromso 3 1345 37.12% @ Start 1 1259 39.58% 23.30%