1989 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Lillestrom

52 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lillestrom

12.34 points above expected

52 points · 39.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mjolner

8.99 points below expected

15 points · 23.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lillestrom 22 16 4 2 52 31 13 +18 39.66 +12.34
2 Rosenborg 22 13 5 4 44 56 29 +27 41.05 +2.95
3 Tromso 22 11 4 7 37 36 25 +11 35.22 +1.78
4 Molde 22 11 4 7 37 40 32 +8 36.11 +0.89
5 Kongsvinger 22 10 4 8 34 34 25 +9 31.91 +2.09
6 Viking 22 9 4 9 31 36 33 +3 26.10 +4.90
7 Brann 22 9 3 10 30 28 31 -3 26.87 +3.13
8 Moss 22 7 5 10 26 35 36 -1 33.48 -7.48
9 Start 22 5 8 9 23 26 34 -8 22.53 +0.47
10 Valerenga 22 7 2 13 23 29 52 -23 27.82 -4.82
11 Sogndal 22 4 6 12 18 31 45 -14 24.82 -6.82
12 Mjolner 22 4 3 15 15 23 50 -27 23.99 -8.99

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1472 44 41.05 +2.95 71.5% 18 31 37 41 45 51 62
Lillestrom 1453 52 39.66 +12.34 98.8% 14 30 36 40 44 49 61
Kongsvinger 1354 34 31.91 +2.09 67.1% 12 22 28 32 36 42 56
Tromso 1337 37 35.22 +1.78 65.0% 15 25 31 35 39 45 56
Molde 1311 37 36.11 +0.89 58.9% 16 26 32 36 40 46 58
Moss 1297 26 33.48 -7.48 12.3% 13 24 29 33 37 43 57
Viking 1244 31 26.10 +4.90 82.2% 6 17 22 26 30 36 49
Brann 1241 30 26.87 +3.13 73.3% 8 17 23 27 31 37 47
Start 1198 23 22.53 +0.47 57.6% 4 13 19 22 26 32 48
Sogndal 1183 18 24.82 -6.82 14.0% 6 15 21 25 29 35 50
Mjolner 1113 15 23.99 -8.99 6.9% 4 15 20 24 28 34 47
Valerenga 1108 23 27.82 -4.82 23.5% 7 18 24 28 32 37 50

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA KON LIL MJO MOL MOS ROS SOG STA TRO VAL VIK
Brann
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
1.47
2-0-0
3.15
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
2.04
0-1-1
1.68
1-1-0
2.98
0-0-2
3.43
0-1-1
2.08
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.94
Kongsvinger
1-0-1
3.07
0-1-1
2.01
0-1-1
3.49
2-0-0
2.20
2-0-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.12
1-0-1
3.77
1-1-0
3.55
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
3.40
1-0-1
3.28
Lillestrom
1-0-1
4.15
1-1-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.01
2-0-0
2.89
2-0-0
3.64
0-1-1
2.86
2-0-0
3.75
1-1-0
4.32
1-1-0
3.29
2-0-0
3.48
2-0-0
3.83
Mjolner
0-0-2
2.44
1-1-0
2.11
0-0-2
1.61
0-0-2
1.75
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
1.56
0-1-1
2.57
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-2
2.13
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.55
Molde
1-0-1
3.53
0-0-2
3.40
0-0-2
2.70
2-0-0
3.86
0-1-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.45
2-0-0
3.72
1-1-0
3.79
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.36
1-0-1
3.65
Moss
1-0-1
3.54
0-0-2
3.02
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
3.84
1-1-0
2.74
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
3.70
1-1-0
3.59
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
3.17
1-1-0
3.36
Rosenborg
1-1-0
3.93
1-1-0
3.48
1-1-0
2.73
2-0-0
4.05
0-1-1
3.14
2-0-0
3.67
2-0-0
3.98
1-1-0
4.28
1-0-1
3.36
1-0-1
4.31
1-0-1
4.06
Sogndal
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
1.83
0-0-2
1.87
1-1-0
3.02
0-0-2
1.88
1-1-0
1.91
0-0-2
1.63
0-1-1
3.01
0-1-1
1.94
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.70
Start
2-0-0
2.16
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
1.31
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
1.82
0-1-1
2.00
0-1-1
1.35
1-1-0
2.57
0-0-2
1.73
0-1-1
2.31
1-1-0
2.36
Tromso
1-1-0
3.52
1-0-1
3.14
0-1-1
2.30
2-0-0
3.46
0-1-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
3.66
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
3.55
1-0-1
3.58
Valerenga
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.22
0-0-2
2.12
1-0-1
2.99
0-0-2
2.24
0-1-1
2.43
1-0-1
1.31
1-0-1
3.00
1-1-0
3.28
1-0-1
2.05
0-0-2
3.17
Viking
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-1
2.31
0-0-2
1.79
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
1.55
1-1-0
2.89
0-1-1
3.23
1-0-1
2.01
2-0-0
2.42

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.35 +7.5
Allowed 0.77 -8.5
Differential 0.83 +6.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%8.71%7.58%3.41%0.38%1.14%26.52%
18.71%6.82%4.92%4.17%3.03%0.76%28.41%
27.58%4.92%6.06%2.65%2.27%0.76%24.24%
33.41%4.17%2.65%1.52%0.38%12.12%
40.38%3.03%2.27%0.38%6.06%
5+1.14%0.76%0.76%2.65%
Total26.52%28.41%24.24%12.12%6.06%2.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.05
CV 0.91 0.91
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%40.91%
113.64%4.55%18.18%
213.64%4.55%9.09%27.27%
3
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+
Total36.36%22.73%18.18%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.41 -0.14
SD 1.39 1.44 2.03
CV 1.09 1.02
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%27.27%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
49.09%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total40.91%36.36%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.14 +0.41
SD 1.50 1.52 2.30
CV 0.97 1.34
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
136.36%9.09%4.55%50.00%
24.55%13.64%18.18%
39.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
4
5+
Total59.09%27.27%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 0.59 +0.82
SD 0.96 0.85 1.22
CV 0.68 1.45
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%22.73%4.55%4.55%40.91%
19.09%13.64%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
39.09%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total4.55%31.82%36.36%9.09%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.27 -1.23
SD 1.09 1.70 2.09
CV 1.04 0.75
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%27.27%
24.55%18.18%4.55%27.27%
39.09%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.45 +0.36
SD 1.76 1.26 2.56
CV 0.97 0.87
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
213.64%9.09%13.64%4.55%40.91%
34.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%27.27%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.64 -0.05
SD 1.30 1.33 1.89
CV 0.82 0.81
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
213.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total31.82%22.73%31.82%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.32 +1.23
SD 1.95 1.17 2.02
CV 0.76 0.89
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
29.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%
4
5+
Total4.55%31.82%27.27%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.05 -0.64
SD 1.10 1.09 1.29
CV 0.78 0.53
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
19.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%13.64%18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
4
5+
Total18.18%31.82%31.82%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.55 -0.36
SD 1.01 1.10 1.50
CV 0.85 0.71
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
19.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%31.82%
29.09%4.55%13.64%
313.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total40.91%27.27%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.14 +0.50
SD 1.33 1.25 1.97
CV 0.81 1.10
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
213.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
4
5+
Total18.18%13.64%36.36%9.09%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.36 -1.05
SD 1.04 2.01 2.42
CV 0.79 0.85
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%4.55%31.82%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
29.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
34.55%4.55%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%36.36%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.50 +0.14
SD 1.68 0.91 1.83
CV 1.03 0.61
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lillestrom 52 39.66 +12.34
2 Viking 31 26.10 +4.90
3 Brann 30 26.87 +3.13
4 Rosenborg 44 41.05 +2.95
5 Kongsvinger 34 31.91 +2.09

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mjolner 15 23.99 -8.99
2 Moss 26 33.48 -7.48
3 Sogndal 18 24.82 -6.82
4 Valerenga 23 27.82 -4.82
5 Start 23 22.53 +0.47

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 5 Jul 23 – Aug 20 1 in 37
2 Kongsvinger 4 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 27
3 Valerenga 3 Jun 25 – Jul 9 1 in 25
4 Sogndal 2 Aug 27 – Aug 30 1 in 14
5 Start 2 Jul 2 – Jul 9 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 9 Aug 6 – Oct 8 1 in 1,175
2 Viking 5 Jun 18 – Jul 23 1 in 60
3 Moss 4 Jun 18 – Jul 9 1 in 55
4 Mjolner 6 Aug 6 – Sep 10 1 in 48
5 Brann 4 Sep 10 – Oct 8 1 in 36

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Start 7 Jul 2 – Aug 20 1 in 127
2 Lillestrom 11 Jul 23 – Oct 8 1 in 26
3 Viking 5 May 16 – Jun 11 1 in 20
4 Rosenborg 8 Jul 9 – Aug 30 1 in 12
5 Molde 6 Jun 4 – Jul 9 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Moss 9 May 28 – Jul 30 1 in 323
2 Valerenga 11 Jul 23 – Oct 8 1 in 102
3 Sogndal 10 Apr 30 – Jul 2 1 in 56
4 Kongsvinger 7 May 7 – Jun 18 1 in 47
5 Viking 6 Jun 18 – Jul 30 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Lillestrom28.18%25.02%17.46%11.10%7.83%4.70%2.69%1.46%0.90%0.42%0.15%0.09%
Rosenborg40.62%22.83%14.84%9.12%5.31%3.32%1.82%1.19%0.53%0.24%0.15%0.03%
Tromso9.39%13.63%16.52%16.05%13.53%10.85%7.26%5.12%3.62%2.29%1.16%0.58%
Molde11.34%16.67%17.17%15.96%12.63%9.08%6.99%4.52%2.59%1.73%0.84%0.48%
Kongsvinger3.30%6.86%9.96%12.56%14.75%13.81%12.10%9.61%6.81%5.34%3.38%1.52%
Viking0.49%1.00%2.29%4.22%6.04%8.79%11.19%13.48%14.58%14.40%13.14%10.38%
Brann0.40%1.55%3.02%4.61%7.14%9.86%12.19%13.51%13.96%12.21%12.06%9.49%
Moss5.17%9.01%12.41%14.66%15.05%12.80%10.59%7.40%5.60%4.12%2.25%0.94%
Start0.06%0.22%0.65%1.57%2.16%3.93%6.42%8.45%12.08%15.96%20.18%28.32%
Valerenga0.58%1.79%3.19%5.80%7.60%11.17%12.06%13.97%13.09%12.02%10.59%8.14%
Sogndal0.25%0.83%1.53%2.25%4.47%6.23%9.13%11.14%13.85%15.95%17.00%17.37%
Mjolner0.22%0.59%0.96%2.10%3.49%5.46%7.56%10.15%12.39%15.32%19.10%22.66%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.27%
Strong Edge
53.79%19.70%26.52%
Elo Value
Home Edge
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
097.22500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.60 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.59+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
28%
Lillestrom, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.7 * Some Luck: 4.7 to 7.06 * Lucky: 7.06 to 9.41 * Wild Swing: 9.41 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.58 * Close: 1.58 to 2.36 * Off: 2.36 to 3.15 * Way Off: 3.15 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.84 points
Some Luck
05.8815
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.974
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.82%
Lillestrom
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
6.93%
Mjolner
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.53
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
70%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.99
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.12
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.082
Well Within Noise
00.1370.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Rosenborg 99.58% 0.24% 0.18%
Lillestrom 99.34% 0.42% 0.24%
Molde 96.95% 1.73% 1.32%
Tromso 95.97% 2.29% 1.74%
Moss 92.69% 4.12% 3.19%
Kongsvinger 89.76% 5.34% 4.90%
Valerenga 69.25% 12.02% 18.73%
Brann 66.24% 12.21% 21.55%
Viking 62.08% 14.40% 23.52%
Sogndal 49.68% 15.95% 34.37%
Mjolner 42.92% 15.32% 41.76%
Start 35.54% 15.96% 48.50%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1989-04-30 Molde W 1-0 1293 1358 44.2% 20.8% 35.0% +10.4 3
1989-04-30 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1358 1293 35.0% 20.8% 44.2% -10.4 0
1989-04-30 Valerenga W 1-0 1342 1231 64.4% 19.3% 16.3% +5.3 3
1989-04-30 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1231 1342 16.3% 19.3% 64.4% -5.3 0
1989-04-30 Sogndal W 3-2 1381 1250 66.1% 19.0% 14.8% +4.3 3
1989-04-30 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1250 1381 14.8% 19.0% 66.1% -4.3 0
1989-04-30 Moss L 0-1 1185 1325 33.6% 20.8% 45.6% -10.1 0
1989-04-30 @ Start W 1-0 1325 1185 45.6% 20.8% 33.6% +10.1 3
1989-04-30 Mjolner W 2-0 1286 1250 56.9% 20.2% 22.9% +13.7 3
1989-04-30 @ Tromso L 0-2 1250 1286 22.9% 20.2% 56.9% -13.7 0
1989-04-30 Brann W 4-2 1187 1223 48.0% 20.8% 31.2% +13.9 3
1989-04-30 @ Viking L 2-4 1223 1187 31.2% 20.8% 48.0% -13.9 0
1989-05-07 Tromso L 0-3 1209 1300 40.5% 20.9% 38.6% -32.1 0
1989-05-07 @ Brann W 3-0 1300 1209 38.6% 20.9% 40.5% +32.1 6
1989-05-07 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1236 1303 43.8% 20.8% 35.4% -0.5 1
1989-05-07 @ Mjolner D 1-1 1303 1236 35.4% 20.8% 43.8% +0.5 4
1989-05-07 Rosenborg W 3-1 1347 1385 47.7% 20.8% 31.5% +15.6 3
1989-05-07 @ Molde L 1-3 1385 1347 31.5% 20.8% 47.7% -15.6 3
1989-05-07 Viking W 2-0 1335 1201 66.4% 19.0% 14.6% +9.0 6
1989-05-07 @ Moss L 0-2 1201 1335 14.6% 19.0% 66.4% -9.0 3
1989-05-07 Lillestrom L 0-1 1245 1348 38.9% 20.9% 40.2% -11.3 0
1989-05-07 @ Sogndal W 1-0 1348 1245 40.2% 20.9% 38.9% +11.3 6
1989-05-07 Start W 2-0 1226 1175 58.5% 20.1% 21.5% +13.0 3
1989-05-07 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1175 1226 21.5% 20.1% 58.5% -13.0 0
1989-05-16 Moss W 2-0 1177 1344 30.1% 20.7% 49.2% +26.0 3
1989-05-16 @ Brann L 0-2 1344 1177 49.2% 20.7% 30.1% -26.0 6
1989-05-16 Molde W 3-1 1359 1363 52.1% 20.6% 27.3% +13.9 9
1989-05-16 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1363 1359 27.3% 20.6% 52.1% -13.9 3
1989-05-16 Mjolner W 6-2 1370 1235 66.4% 19.0% 14.6% +12.1 6
1989-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 2-6 1235 1370 14.6% 19.0% 66.4% -12.1 1
1989-05-16 Sogndal W 1-0 1162 1234 43.1% 20.9% 36.0% +10.7 3
1989-05-16 @ Start L 0-1 1234 1162 36.0% 20.9% 43.1% -10.7 0
1989-05-16 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1332 1304 55.9% 20.3% 23.8% +7.5 9
1989-05-16 @ Tromso L 0-1 1304 1332 23.8% 20.3% 55.9% -7.5 4
1989-05-16 Valerenga W 1-0 1192 1239 46.6% 20.8% 32.6% +9.8 6
1989-05-16 @ Viking L 0-1 1239 1192 32.6% 20.8% 46.6% -9.9 3
1989-05-25 Rosenborg D 2-2 1296 1382 41.2% 20.9% 37.9% -0.1 5
1989-05-25 @ Kongsvinger D 2-2 1382 1296 37.9% 20.9% 41.2% +0.2 7
1989-05-25 Lillestrom L 0-2 1223 1373 32.4% 20.8% 46.9% -18.4 1
1989-05-25 @ Mjolner W 2-0 1373 1223 46.9% 20.8% 32.4% +18.4 12
1989-05-25 Start W 2-1 1349 1173 69.7% 18.3% 12.0% +3.7 6
1989-05-25 @ Molde L 1-2 1173 1349 12.0% 18.3% 69.7% -3.7 3
1989-05-25 Tromso W 2-0 1319 1339 50.0% 20.7% 29.3% +17.0 9
1989-05-25 @ Moss L 0-2 1339 1319 29.3% 20.7% 50.0% -17.0 9
1989-05-25 Viking D 2-2 1223 1202 55.2% 20.4% 24.5% -1.5 1
1989-05-25 @ Sogndal D 2-2 1202 1223 24.5% 20.4% 55.2% +1.4 7
1989-05-25 Brann W 2-0 1229 1203 55.7% 20.3% 24.0% +14.3 6
1989-05-25 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1203 1229 24.0% 20.3% 55.7% -14.3 3
1989-05-28 Sogndal W 1-0 1189 1222 48.4% 20.7% 30.9% +9.4 6
1989-05-28 @ Brann L 0-1 1222 1189 30.9% 20.7% 48.4% -9.4 1
1989-05-28 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1391 1296 62.9% 19.6% 17.5% -3.3 13
1989-05-28 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1296 1391 17.5% 19.6% 62.9% +3.3 6
1989-05-28 Valerenga D 2-2 1336 1243 62.6% 19.6% 17.8% -2.2 10
1989-05-28 @ Moss D 2-2 1243 1336 17.8% 19.6% 62.6% +2.2 7
1989-05-28 Mjolner L 1-2 1169 1205 48.1% 20.8% 31.2% -12.7 3
1989-05-28 @ Start W 2-1 1205 1169 31.2% 20.8% 48.1% +12.7 4
1989-05-28 Rosenborg W 2-0 1322 1382 44.9% 20.8% 34.3% +19.3 12
1989-05-28 @ Tromso L 0-2 1382 1322 34.3% 20.8% 44.9% -19.3 7
1989-05-28 Molde W 2-0 1203 1353 32.4% 20.8% 46.8% +24.9 10
1989-05-28 @ Viking L 0-2 1353 1203 46.8% 20.8% 32.4% -24.9 6
1989-06-04 Start D 0-0 1300 1156 67.2% 18.9% 14.0% -4.0 7
1989-06-04 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1156 1300 14.0% 18.9% 67.2% +4.0 4
1989-06-04 Viking D 1-1 1217 1228 51.3% 20.6% 28.1% -1.5 5
1989-06-04 @ Mjolner D 1-1 1228 1217 28.1% 20.6% 51.3% +1.5 11
1989-06-04 Brann W 2-1 1328 1198 66.0% 19.1% 14.9% +4.6 9
1989-06-04 @ Molde L 1-2 1198 1328 14.9% 19.1% 66.0% -4.6 6
1989-06-04 Lillestrom W 3-1 1363 1388 49.5% 20.7% 29.9% +14.9 10
1989-06-04 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1388 1363 29.9% 20.7% 49.5% -14.9 13
1989-06-04 Moss D 0-0 1213 1333 36.2% 20.9% 42.9% +0.4 2
1989-06-04 @ Sogndal D 0-0 1333 1213 42.9% 20.9% 36.2% -0.5 11
1989-06-04 Tromso W 3-1 1246 1342 39.7% 20.9% 39.4% +18.7 10
1989-06-04 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1342 1246 39.4% 20.9% 39.7% -18.7 12
1989-06-11 Mjolner W 4-2 1194 1216 49.8% 20.7% 29.5% +13.2 9
1989-06-11 @ Brann L 2-4 1216 1194 29.5% 20.7% 49.8% -13.2 5
1989-06-11 Molde D 1-1 1333 1332 52.7% 20.5% 26.8% -1.6 12
1989-06-11 @ Moss D 1-1 1332 1333 26.8% 20.5% 52.7% +1.6 10
1989-06-11 Rosenborg L 0-2 1160 1378 24.3% 20.3% 55.3% -14.5 4
1989-06-11 @ Start W 2-0 1378 1160 55.3% 20.3% 24.3% +14.5 13
1989-06-11 Lillestrom D 1-1 1323 1373 46.2% 20.8% 33.0% -0.8 13
1989-06-11 @ Tromso D 1-1 1373 1323 33.0% 20.8% 46.2% +0.8 14
1989-06-11 Sogndal W 3-2 1264 1213 58.5% 20.1% 21.4% +6.1 13
1989-06-11 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1213 1264 21.4% 20.1% 58.5% -6.1 2
1989-06-11 Kongsvinger W 6-1 1230 1296 44.0% 20.8% 35.2% +38.2 14
1989-06-11 @ Viking L 1-6 1296 1230 35.2% 20.8% 44.0% -38.2 7
1989-06-18 Brann L 0-1 1257 1207 58.4% 20.1% 21.5% -16.1 7
1989-06-18 @ Kongsvinger W 1-0 1207 1257 21.5% 20.1% 58.4% +16.1 12
1989-06-18 Start W 3-0 1374 1146 73.3% 17.4% 9.3% +8.4 17
1989-06-18 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1146 1374 9.3% 17.4% 73.3% -8.4 4
1989-06-18 Moss W 3-1 1203 1331 35.2% 20.8% 44.0% +20.5 8
1989-06-18 @ Mjolner L 1-3 1331 1203 44.0% 20.8% 35.2% -20.5 12
1989-06-18 Valerenga W 5-0 1334 1270 59.8% 19.9% 20.3% +28.8 13
1989-06-18 @ Molde L 0-5 1270 1334 20.3% 19.9% 59.8% -28.8 13
1989-06-18 Viking W 1-0 1392 1268 65.5% 19.1% 15.3% +5.0 16
1989-06-18 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1268 1392 15.3% 19.1% 65.5% -5.0 14
1989-06-18 Tromso D 1-1 1207 1322 37.0% 20.9% 42.1% +0.3 3
1989-06-18 @ Sogndal D 1-1 1322 1207 42.1% 20.9% 37.0% -0.3 14
1989-06-25 Rosenborg D 0-0 1223 1397 29.3% 20.7% 50.1% +1.5 13
1989-06-25 @ Brann D 0-0 1397 1223 50.1% 20.7% 29.3% -1.4 17
1989-06-25 Kongsvinger L 0-2 1311 1241 60.4% 19.9% 19.7% -31.3 12
1989-06-25 @ Moss W 2-0 1241 1311 19.7% 19.9% 60.4% +31.3 10
1989-06-25 Molde L 1-2 1207 1363 31.6% 20.8% 47.6% -9.0 3
1989-06-25 @ Sogndal W 2-1 1363 1207 47.6% 20.8% 31.6% +9.0 16
1989-06-25 Start W 4-1 1322 1137 70.3% 18.2% 11.5% +8.8 17
1989-06-25 @ Tromso L 1-4 1137 1322 11.5% 18.2% 70.3% -8.8 4
1989-06-25 Mjolner W 2-0 1242 1223 54.8% 20.4% 24.8% +14.7 16
1989-06-25 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1223 1242 24.8% 20.4% 54.8% -14.7 8
1989-06-25 Lillestrom L 0-1 1263 1382 36.4% 20.9% 42.7% -10.8 14
1989-06-25 @ Viking W 1-0 1382 1263 42.7% 20.9% 36.4% +10.8 20
1989-07-02 Sogndal W 3-1 1273 1198 60.9% 19.8% 19.3% +10.2 13
1989-07-02 @ Kongsvinger L 1-3 1198 1273 19.3% 19.8% 60.9% -10.2 3
1989-07-02 Moss W 1-0 1393 1279 64.6% 19.3% 16.1% +5.3 23
1989-07-02 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1279 1393 16.1% 19.3% 64.6% -5.3 12
1989-07-02 Molde L 0-1 1209 1372 30.6% 20.7% 48.7% -9.3 8
1989-07-02 @ Mjolner W 1-0 1372 1209 48.7% 20.7% 30.6% +9.3 19
1989-07-02 Valerenga L 2-3 1396 1256 66.8% 18.9% 14.3% -16.4 17
1989-07-02 @ Rosenborg W 3-2 1256 1396 14.3% 18.9% 66.8% +16.4 19
1989-07-02 Brann W 3-0 1129 1224 39.8% 20.9% 39.4% +31.4 7
1989-07-02 @ Start L 0-3 1224 1129 39.4% 20.9% 39.8% -31.4 13
1989-07-02 Viking W 1-0 1331 1252 61.3% 19.8% 18.9% +6.1 20
1989-07-02 @ Tromso L 0-1 1252 1331 18.9% 19.8% 61.3% -6.1 14
1989-07-09 Lillestrom W 2-0 1193 1398 25.7% 20.5% 53.9% +28.2 16
1989-07-09 @ Brann L 0-2 1398 1193 53.9% 20.5% 25.7% -28.2 23
1989-07-09 Tromso W 3-1 1381 1337 57.7% 20.2% 22.1% +11.5 22
1989-07-09 @ Molde L 1-3 1337 1381 22.1% 20.2% 57.7% -11.5 20
1989-07-09 Rosenborg L 2-4 1274 1379 38.4% 20.9% 40.7% -16.4 12
1989-07-09 @ Moss W 4-2 1379 1274 40.7% 20.9% 38.4% +16.4 20
1989-07-09 Mjolner W 2-1 1188 1199 51.2% 20.6% 28.2% +8.2 6
1989-07-09 @ Sogndal L 1-2 1199 1188 28.2% 20.6% 51.2% -8.2 8
1989-07-09 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1273 1283 51.4% 20.6% 28.0% +8.7 22
1989-07-09 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1283 1273 28.0% 20.6% 51.4% -8.7 13
1989-07-09 Start L 1-3 1246 1160 62.0% 19.7% 18.3% -27.8 14
1989-07-09 @ Viking W 3-1 1160 1246 18.3% 19.7% 62.0% +27.8 10
1989-07-23 Viking W 1-0 1221 1218 53.0% 20.5% 26.5% +8.3 19
1989-07-23 @ Brann L 0-1 1218 1221 26.5% 20.5% 53.0% -8.3 14
1989-07-23 Tromso L 0-3 1191 1325 34.4% 20.8% 44.8% -28.1 8
1989-07-23 @ Mjolner W 3-0 1325 1191 44.8% 20.8% 34.4% +28.1 23
1989-07-23 Kongsvinger L 1-4 1393 1274 65.0% 19.2% 15.7% -41.2 22
1989-07-23 @ Molde W 4-1 1274 1393 15.7% 19.2% 65.0% +41.2 16
1989-07-23 Start D 1-1 1258 1188 60.4% 19.9% 19.7% -2.7 13
1989-07-23 @ Moss D 1-1 1188 1258 19.7% 19.9% 60.4% +2.7 11
1989-07-23 Rosenborg L 1-4 1196 1396 26.3% 20.5% 53.2% -19.0 6
1989-07-23 @ Sogndal W 4-1 1396 1196 53.2% 20.5% 26.3% +19.0 23
1989-07-23 Lillestrom L 1-2 1281 1370 40.8% 20.9% 38.3% -11.1 22
1989-07-23 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1370 1281 38.3% 20.9% 40.8% +11.1 26
1989-07-30 Mjolner L 1-3 1315 1163 67.9% 18.7% 13.4% -30.3 16
1989-07-30 @ Kongsvinger W 3-1 1163 1315 13.4% 18.7% 67.9% +30.3 11
1989-07-30 Sogndal W 2-1 1381 1177 71.7% 17.8% 10.5% +3.3 29
1989-07-30 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1177 1381 10.5% 17.8% 71.7% -3.2 6
1989-07-30 Molde D 1-1 1415 1351 59.7% 20.0% 20.3% -2.6 24
1989-07-30 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1351 1415 20.3% 20.0% 59.7% +2.6 23
1989-07-30 Valerenga D 2-2 1190 1270 42.0% 20.9% 37.1% -0.2 12
1989-07-30 @ Start D 2-2 1270 1190 37.1% 20.9% 42.0% +0.2 23
1989-07-30 Brann D 0-0 1353 1230 65.5% 19.1% 15.3% -3.7 24
1989-07-30 @ Tromso D 0-0 1230 1353 15.3% 19.1% 65.5% +3.7 20
1989-07-30 Moss D 2-2 1210 1255 46.8% 20.8% 32.4% -0.7 15
1989-07-30 @ Viking D 2-2 1255 1210 32.4% 20.8% 46.8% +0.7 14
1989-08-06 Tromso W 3-0 1285 1350 44.1% 20.8% 35.0% +28.5 19
1989-08-06 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1350 1285 35.0% 20.8% 44.1% -28.5 24
1989-08-06 Rosenborg L 0-2 1193 1412 24.2% 20.3% 55.5% -14.4 11
1989-08-06 @ Mjolner W 2-0 1412 1193 55.5% 20.3% 24.2% +14.4 27
1989-08-06 Lillestrom L 0-3 1354 1384 48.8% 20.7% 30.5% -37.5 23
1989-08-06 @ Molde W 3-0 1384 1354 30.5% 20.7% 48.8% +37.5 32
1989-08-06 Brann W 4-2 1256 1233 55.3% 20.4% 24.4% +11.2 17
1989-08-06 @ Moss L 2-4 1233 1256 24.4% 20.4% 55.3% -11.2 20
1989-08-06 Start D 3-3 1174 1190 50.6% 20.6% 28.8% -0.8 7
1989-08-06 @ Sogndal D 3-3 1190 1174 28.8% 20.6% 50.6% +0.8 13
1989-08-06 Viking L 2-3 1271 1209 59.6% 20.0% 20.5% -14.7 23
1989-08-06 @ Valerenga W 3-2 1209 1271 20.5% 20.0% 59.6% +14.7 18
1989-08-12 Sogndal W 2-0 1224 1173 58.4% 20.1% 21.5% +13.0 21
1989-08-12 @ Viking L 0-2 1173 1224 21.5% 20.1% 58.4% -13.0 7
1989-08-13 Valerenga W 2-0 1222 1256 48.3% 20.7% 30.9% +17.8 23
1989-08-13 @ Brann L 0-2 1256 1222 30.9% 20.7% 48.3% -17.8 23
1989-08-13 Mjolner W 1-0 1422 1179 74.3% 17.1% 8.7% +2.8 35
1989-08-13 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1179 1422 8.7% 17.1% 74.3% -2.8 11
1989-08-13 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1426 1314 64.5% 19.3% 16.1% +12.2 30
1989-08-13 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1314 1426 16.1% 19.3% 64.5% -12.2 19
1989-08-13 Molde D 2-2 1191 1317 35.6% 20.9% 43.6% +0.4 14
1989-08-13 @ Start D 2-2 1317 1191 43.6% 20.9% 35.6% -0.4 24
1989-08-13 Moss W 3-2 1321 1267 58.8% 20.1% 21.2% +6.1 27
1989-08-13 @ Tromso L 2-3 1267 1321 21.2% 20.1% 58.8% -6.1 17
1989-08-20 Lillestrom L 0-1 1301 1425 35.9% 20.9% 43.2% -10.6 19
1989-08-20 @ Kongsvinger W 1-0 1425 1301 43.2% 20.9% 35.9% +10.6 38
1989-08-20 Start L 1-2 1176 1191 50.7% 20.6% 28.7% -13.3 11
1989-08-20 @ Mjolner W 2-1 1191 1176 28.7% 20.6% 50.7% +13.3 17
1989-08-20 Viking W 2-0 1316 1237 61.4% 19.8% 18.9% +11.5 27
1989-08-20 @ Molde L 0-2 1237 1316 18.9% 19.8% 61.4% -11.5 21
1989-08-20 Tromso W 2-1 1439 1327 64.4% 19.3% 16.2% +5.0 33
1989-08-20 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1327 1439 16.2% 19.3% 64.4% -5.0 27
1989-08-20 Brann D 2-2 1160 1240 42.1% 20.9% 37.1% -0.2 8
1989-08-20 @ Sogndal D 2-2 1240 1160 37.1% 20.9% 42.1% +0.2 24
1989-08-20 Moss L 1-5 1238 1261 49.8% 20.7% 29.6% -41.5 23
1989-08-20 @ Valerenga W 5-1 1261 1238 29.6% 20.7% 49.8% +41.5 20
1989-08-27 Molde W 4-1 1240 1328 40.9% 20.9% 38.2% +25.8 27
1989-08-27 @ Brann L 1-4 1328 1240 38.2% 20.9% 40.9% -25.8 27
1989-08-27 Rosenborg D 0-0 1435 1444 51.6% 20.6% 27.8% -1.7 39
1989-08-27 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1444 1435 27.8% 20.6% 51.6% +1.7 34
1989-08-27 Sogndal L 2-3 1302 1160 67.1% 18.9% 14.1% -16.4 20
1989-08-27 @ Moss W 3-2 1160 1302 14.1% 18.9% 67.1% +16.4 11
1989-08-27 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1205 1291 41.2% 20.9% 37.9% -11.9 17
1989-08-27 @ Start W 1-0 1291 1205 37.9% 20.9% 41.2% +11.9 22
1989-08-27 Valerenga W 4-1 1322 1197 65.7% 19.1% 15.2% +11.5 30
1989-08-27 @ Tromso L 1-4 1197 1322 15.2% 19.1% 65.7% -11.5 23
1989-08-27 Mjolner W 2-1 1225 1163 59.7% 20.0% 20.4% +6.2 24
1989-08-27 @ Viking L 1-2 1163 1225 20.4% 20.0% 59.7% -6.2 11
1989-08-30 Viking W 3-0 1303 1231 60.6% 19.9% 19.6% +17.3 25
1989-08-30 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1231 1303 19.6% 19.9% 60.6% -17.3 24
1989-08-30 Tromso W 1-0 1434 1334 63.3% 19.5% 17.2% +5.6 42
1989-08-30 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1334 1434 17.2% 19.5% 63.3% -5.6 30
1989-08-30 Brann L 1-4 1156 1266 37.8% 20.9% 41.3% -25.6 11
1989-08-30 @ Mjolner W 4-1 1266 1156 41.3% 20.9% 37.8% +25.6 30
1989-08-30 Moss L 0-3 1302 1286 54.5% 20.4% 25.1% -41.4 27
1989-08-30 @ Molde W 3-0 1286 1302 25.1% 20.4% 54.5% +41.4 23
1989-08-30 Start D 2-2 1445 1193 74.8% 16.9% 8.3% -3.4 35
1989-08-30 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1193 1445 8.3% 16.9% 74.8% +3.4 18
1989-08-30 Valerenga W 3-1 1176 1185 51.5% 20.6% 27.9% +14.1 14
1989-08-30 @ Sogndal L 1-3 1185 1176 27.9% 20.6% 51.5% -14.1 23
1989-09-10 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1291 1320 49.0% 20.7% 30.3% -13.7 30
1989-09-10 @ Brann W 1-0 1320 1291 30.3% 20.7% 49.0% +13.7 28
1989-09-10 Mjolner W 2-0 1327 1131 71.2% 17.9% 10.8% +6.8 26
1989-09-10 @ Moss L 0-2 1131 1327 10.8% 17.9% 71.2% -6.8 11
1989-09-10 Lillestrom D 1-1 1196 1439 21.7% 20.1% 58.2% +2.4 19
1989-09-10 @ Start D 1-1 1439 1196 58.2% 20.1% 21.7% -2.4 43
1989-09-10 Sogndal W 3-0 1328 1190 66.7% 18.9% 14.4% +12.9 33
1989-09-10 @ Tromso L 0-3 1190 1328 14.4% 18.9% 66.7% -12.9 14
1989-09-10 Molde L 1-2 1171 1260 40.7% 20.9% 38.5% -11.1 23
1989-09-10 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1260 1171 38.5% 20.9% 40.7% +11.1 30
1989-09-10 Rosenborg W 4-3 1214 1442 23.2% 20.3% 56.5% +13.6 27
1989-09-10 @ Viking L 3-4 1442 1214 56.5% 20.3% 23.2% -13.6 35
1989-09-23 Brann W 4-0 1428 1278 67.8% 18.7% 13.5% +15.9 38
1989-09-23 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1278 1428 13.5% 18.7% 67.8% -15.9 30
1989-09-24 Moss W 4-1 1334 1334 52.5% 20.5% 26.9% +19.3 31
1989-09-24 @ Kongsvinger L 1-4 1334 1334 26.9% 20.5% 52.5% -19.3 26
1989-09-24 Viking W 2-1 1437 1228 72.1% 17.7% 10.2% +3.2 46
1989-09-24 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1228 1437 10.2% 17.7% 72.1% -3.2 27
1989-09-24 Valerenga W 2-0 1124 1160 48.1% 20.8% 31.2% +17.9 14
1989-09-24 @ Mjolner L 0-2 1160 1124 31.2% 20.8% 48.1% -17.9 23
1989-09-24 Sogndal W 4-2 1272 1178 62.8% 19.6% 17.6% +8.4 33
1989-09-24 @ Molde L 2-4 1178 1272 17.6% 19.6% 62.8% -8.4 14
1989-09-24 Tromso L 1-3 1199 1341 33.3% 20.8% 45.9% -16.3 19
1989-09-24 @ Start W 3-1 1341 1199 45.9% 20.8% 33.3% +16.3 36
1989-10-01 Start L 0-1 1262 1182 61.4% 19.8% 18.9% -16.9 30
1989-10-01 @ Brann W 1-0 1182 1262 18.9% 19.8% 61.4% +16.9 22
1989-10-01 Mjolner W 7-0 1280 1142 66.7% 18.9% 14.3% +28.6 36
1989-10-01 @ Molde L 0-7 1142 1280 14.3% 18.9% 66.7% -28.6 14
1989-10-01 Lillestrom L 2-3 1315 1440 35.6% 20.9% 43.5% -9.5 26
1989-10-01 @ Moss W 3-2 1440 1315 43.5% 20.9% 35.6% +9.5 49
1989-10-01 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1169 1353 28.1% 20.6% 51.3% +13.5 17
1989-10-01 @ Sogndal L 1-2 1353 1169 51.3% 20.6% 28.1% -13.5 31
1989-10-01 Rosenborg L 2-8 1142 1444 16.5% 19.4% 64.1% -19.3 23
1989-10-01 @ Valerenga W 8-2 1444 1142 64.1% 19.4% 16.5% +19.3 41
1989-10-01 Tromso W 4-2 1225 1357 34.6% 20.8% 44.6% +18.5 30
1989-10-01 @ Viking L 2-4 1357 1225 44.6% 20.8% 34.6% -18.5 36
1989-10-08 Valerenga W 5-0 1339 1123 72.6% 17.6% 9.8% +14.3 34
1989-10-08 @ Kongsvinger L 0-5 1123 1339 9.8% 17.6% 72.6% -14.3 23
1989-10-08 Brann W 1-0 1449 1245 71.8% 17.8% 10.4% +3.4 52
1989-10-08 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1245 1449 10.4% 17.8% 71.8% -3.4 30
1989-10-08 Sogndal D 3-3 1113 1183 43.5% 20.9% 35.6% -0.3 15
1989-10-08 @ Mjolner D 3-3 1183 1113 35.6% 20.9% 43.5% +0.3 18
1989-10-08 Moss W 2-0 1464 1305 68.4% 18.6% 13.0% +8.1 44
1989-10-08 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1305 1464 13.0% 18.6% 68.4% -8.1 26
1989-10-08 Viking D 1-1 1199 1243 47.0% 20.8% 32.2% -0.9 23
1989-10-08 @ Start D 1-1 1243 1199 32.2% 20.8% 47.0% +0.9 31
1989-10-08 Molde D 0-0 1339 1309 56.2% 20.3% 23.5% -2.3 37
1989-10-08 @ Tromso D 0-0 1309 1339 23.5% 20.3% 56.2% +2.3 37

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1989-07-30 13.40% Mjolner 1163 3 @ Kongsvinger 1315 1
2 1989-08-27 14.05% Sogndal 1160 3 @ Moss 1302 2
3 1989-07-02 14.26% Valerenga 1256 3 @ Rosenborg 1396 2
4 1989-07-23 15.72% Kongsvinger 1274 4 @ Molde 1393 1
5 1989-07-09 18.29% Start 1160 3 @ Viking 1246 1
6 1989-10-01 18.85% Start 1182 1 @ Brann 1262 0
7 1989-06-25 19.73% Kongsvinger 1241 2 @ Moss 1311 0
8 1989-08-06 20.48% Viking 1209 3 @ Valerenga 1271 2
9 1989-06-18 21.51% Brann 1207 1 @ Kongsvinger 1257 0
10 1989-09-10 23.22% @ Viking 1214 4 Rosenborg 1442 3
11 1989-08-30 25.08% Moss 1286 3 @ Molde 1302 0
12 1989-07-09 25.66% @ Brann 1193 2 Lillestrom 1398 0
13 1989-10-01 28.10% @ Sogndal 1169 2 Kongsvinger 1353 1
14 1989-08-20 28.68% Start 1191 2 @ Mjolner 1176 1
15 1989-08-20 29.57% Moss 1261 5 @ Valerenga 1238 1
16 1989-05-16 30.11% @ Brann 1177 2 Moss 1344 0
17 1989-09-10 30.27% Kongsvinger 1320 1 @ Brann 1291 0
18 1989-08-06 30.50% Lillestrom 1384 3 @ Molde 1354 0
19 1989-05-28 31.20% Mjolner 1205 2 @ Start 1169 1
20 1989-05-28 32.40% @ Viking 1203 2 Molde 1353 0
21 1989-10-01 34.59% @ Viking 1225 4 Tromso 1357 2
22 1989-06-18 35.18% @ Mjolner 1203 3 Moss 1331 1
23 1989-08-27 37.94% Kongsvinger 1291 1 @ Start 1205 0
24 1989-07-23 38.31% Lillestrom 1370 2 @ Valerenga 1281 1
25 1989-09-10 38.45% Molde 1260 2 @ Valerenga 1171 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1989-08-20 41.50 Moss 5 1261 29.57% @ Valerenga 1 1238 49.75% 20.68%
2 1989-08-30 41.38 Moss 3 1286 25.08% @ Molde 0 1302 54.51% 20.41%
3 1989-07-23 41.19 Kongsvinger 4 1274 15.72% @ Molde 1 1393 65.05% 19.23%
4 1989-06-11 38.19 @ Viking 6 1230 43.99% Kongsvinger 1 1296 35.16% 20.85%
5 1989-08-06 37.47 Lillestrom 3 1384 30.50% @ Molde 0 1354 48.78% 20.72%
6 1989-05-07 32.09 Tromso 3 1300 38.59% @ Brann 0 1209 40.53% 20.89%
7 1989-07-02 31.36 @ Start 3 1129 39.75% Brann 0 1224 39.36% 20.89%
8 1989-06-25 31.35 Kongsvinger 2 1241 19.73% @ Moss 0 1311 60.39% 19.87%
9 1989-07-30 30.33 Mjolner 3 1163 13.40% @ Kongsvinger 1 1315 67.90% 18.71%
10 1989-06-18 28.78 @ Molde 5 1334 59.78% Valerenga 0 1270 20.28% 19.94%
11 1989-10-01 28.60 @ Molde 7 1280 66.72% Mjolner 0 1142 14.35% 18.94%
12 1989-08-06 28.54 @ Kongsvinger 3 1285 44.15% Tromso 0 1350 35.00% 20.85%
13 1989-07-09 28.19 @ Brann 2 1193 25.66% Lillestrom 0 1398 53.88% 20.46%
14 1989-07-23 28.14 Tromso 3 1325 44.77% @ Mjolner 0 1191 34.39% 20.84%
15 1989-07-09 27.84 Start 3 1160 18.29% @ Viking 1 1246 62.03% 19.67%
16 1989-05-16 25.99 @ Brann 2 1177 30.11% Moss 0 1344 49.19% 20.70%
17 1989-08-27 25.82 @ Brann 4 1240 40.93% Molde 1 1328 38.19% 20.88%
18 1989-08-30 25.61 Brann 4 1266 41.30% @ Mjolner 1 1156 37.82% 20.88%
19 1989-05-28 24.90 @ Viking 2 1203 32.40% Molde 0 1353 46.81% 20.79%
20 1989-06-18 20.45 @ Mjolner 3 1203 35.18% Moss 1 1331 43.97% 20.85%
21 1989-09-24 19.34 @ Kongsvinger 4 1334 52.54% Moss 1 1334 26.92% 20.54%
22 1989-05-28 19.34 @ Tromso 2 1322 44.85% Rosenborg 0 1382 34.32% 20.83%
23 1989-10-01 19.34 Rosenborg 8 1444 64.08% @ Valerenga 2 1142 16.54% 19.38%
24 1989-07-23 18.95 Rosenborg 4 1396 53.22% @ Sogndal 1 1196 26.28% 20.50%
25 1989-06-04 18.71 @ Valerenga 3 1246 39.71% Tromso 1 1342 39.40% 20.89%