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1988 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Molde

4.48 points above expected

29 points · 33.48 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Djerv 1919

14.83 points below expected

10 points · 24.83 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 22 14 5 3 33 54 23 +31 38.74 -5.74
2 Lillestrom 22 11 7 4 29 38 18 +20 34.40 -5.40
3 Molde 22 10 9 3 29 35 18 +17 33.48 -4.48
4 Moss 22 11 4 7 26 30 19 +11 35.07 -9.07
5 Tromso 22 9 6 7 24 27 22 +5 29.03 -5.03
6 Sogndal 22 8 7 7 23 27 27 0 32.75 -9.75
7 Valerenga 22 8 6 8 22 26 32 -6 29.35 -7.35
8 Kongsvinger 22 7 7 8 21 23 23 0 30.00 -9.00
9 Brann 22 7 4 11 18 16 30 -14 25.02 -7.02
10 Bryne 22 5 6 11 16 29 33 -4 27.30 -11.30
11 Strommen 22 4 5 13 13 16 34 -18 20.58 -7.58
12 Djerv 1919 22 3 4 15 10 17 59 -42 24.83 -14.83

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1439 33 38.74 -5.74 93.8% 17 29 35 39 43 48 57
Molde 1392 29 33.48 -4.48 84.5% 13 24 30 33 37 43 57
Lillestrom 1369 29 34.40 -5.40 85.0% 11 25 30 34 38 44 60
Moss 1344 26 35.07 -9.07 65.9% 13 25 31 35 39 45 57
Kongsvinger 1292 21 30.00 -9.00 39.9% 11 21 26 30 34 40 51
Tromso 1282 24 29.03 -5.03 78.1% 10 20 25 29 33 39 52
Bryne 1228 16 27.30 -11.30 16.0% 7 18 23 27 31 37 48
Sogndal 1222 23 32.75 -9.75 42.2% 13 23 29 33 37 43 54
Valerenga 1194 22 29.35 -7.35 58.8% 9 20 25 29 33 39 53
Brann 1182 18 25.02 -7.02 54.4% 6 16 21 25 29 35 47
Strommen 1127 13 20.58 -7.58 29.0% 3 12 17 20 24 30 40
Djerv 1919 1056 10 24.83 -14.83 1.8% 5 16 21 25 29 34 51

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA BRY D1 KON LIL MOL MOS ROS SOG STR TRO VAL
Brann —
2-0-0
2.50
1-1-0
2.85
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
1.97
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
1.65
0-1-1
1.47
1-0-1
1.99
1-0-1
3.33
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
2.43
Bryne
0-0-2
2.95
 —
1-1-0
3.42
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.09
0-1-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.12
0-0-2
1.77
0-1-1
2.19
2-0-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
2.42
Djerv 1919
0-1-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.03
 —
0-0-2
2.60
0-0-2
1.79
0-0-2
1.93
2-0-0
2.07
0-0-2
1.25
0-0-2
2.18
0-1-1
3.39
0-1-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.27
Kongsvinger
2-0-0
2.98
1-1-0
3.04
2-0-0
2.87
 —
0-1-1
2.28
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
3.90
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.91
Lillestrom
1-0-1
3.50
1-1-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.72
1-1-0
3.16
 —
0-1-1
2.87
1-1-0
2.70
1-1-0
2.22
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
3.85
2-0-0
3.22
0-1-1
3.05
Molde
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.00
2-0-0
3.53
1-1-0
3.18
1-1-0
2.58
 —
1-1-0
2.40
0-0-2
2.33
0-2-0
2.69
1-1-0
4.04
0-1-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.39
Moss
1-1-0
3.84
1-1-0
3.33
0-0-2
3.38
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.74
0-1-1
3.05
 —
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
3.18
Rosenborg
1-1-0
4.02
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
4.28
1-1-0
3.30
0-1-1
3.25
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.84
 —
1-1-0
3.37
2-0-0
3.73
1-0-1
3.78
1-1-0
3.25
Sogndal
1-0-1
3.47
1-1-0
3.27
2-0-0
3.31
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.60
0-2-0
2.75
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
2.10
 —
1-0-1
3.80
1-1-0
2.87
0-1-1
3.00
Strommen
1-0-1
2.12
0-0-2
2.45
1-1-0
2.08
1-1-0
1.58
0-1-1
1.63
0-1-1
1.47
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-2
1.78
1-0-1
1.70
 —
0-1-1
2.10
0-0-2
2.01
Tromso
1-0-1
3.34
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
2.74
1-1-0
2.60
0-0-2
2.24
1-1-0
2.47
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
1.71
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
3.36
 —
1-1-0
2.69
Valerenga
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.29
0-1-1
2.19
1-1-0
2.46
2-0-0
3.44
0-1-1
2.76
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +5.5
Allowed 0.68 -5.0
Differential 0.92 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.85%10.61%6.44%2.27%1.14%1.52%31.82%
110.61%15.15%6.44%1.89%2.27%1.14%37.50%
26.44%6.44%1.52%1.14%0.76%1.14%17.42%
32.27%1.89%1.14%———5.30%
41.14%2.27%0.76%———4.17%
5+1.52%1.14%1.14%———3.79%
Total31.82%37.50%17.42%5.30%4.17%3.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.43 1.43 2.13
CV 1.11 1.11 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%18.18%—4.55%—31.82%
127.27%13.64%13.64%—9.09%—63.64%
24.55%—————4.55%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%18.18%31.82%—13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.36 -0.64
SD 0.55 1.36 1.62
CV 0.76 1.00 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
14.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%——9.09%—4.55%18.18%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.50 -0.18
SD 1.62 1.44 2.04
CV 1.23 0.96 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%——13.64%31.82%
19.09%18.18%18.18%—4.55%9.09%59.09%
24.55%————4.55%9.09%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%—4.55%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 2.68 -1.91
SD 0.61 2.53 2.71
CV 0.79 0.94 —
Max 2 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%13.64%4.55%——4.55%40.91%
19.09%13.64%9.09%—4.55%—36.36%
29.09%4.55%————13.64%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total45.45%31.82%13.64%—4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.05 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.50 2.29
CV 1.34 1.43 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%13.64%————31.82%
19.09%13.64%—4.55%——27.27%
24.55%9.09%————13.64%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4—13.64%————13.64%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total31.82%59.09%4.55%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.82 +0.91
SD 1.98 0.73 1.93
CV 1.15 0.90 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%4.55%————27.27%
113.64%13.64%————27.27%
213.64%—4.55%—9.09%—27.27%
34.55%—————4.55%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total54.55%27.27%9.09%—9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 0.82 +0.77
SD 1.56 1.22 1.60
CV 0.98 1.49 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
118.18%13.64%9.09%4.55%——45.45%
213.64%9.09%————22.73%
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total45.45%31.82%13.64%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 0.86 +0.50
SD 1.40 0.99 2.02
CV 1.03 1.15 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—————9.09%
14.55%13.64%9.09%—4.55%—31.82%
2—13.64%————13.64%
39.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
44.55%—9.09%———13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total31.82%40.91%22.73%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.05 +1.41
SD 1.95 1.00 2.30
CV 0.79 0.96 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%——4.55%—27.27%
19.09%22.73%4.55%—4.55%—40.91%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%54.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.11 1.15 1.57
CV 0.90 0.94 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%22.73%9.09%13.64%4.55%—59.09%
14.55%13.64%—4.55%——22.73%
24.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
3———————
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total22.73%40.91%9.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 1.55 -0.82
SD 1.20 1.41 2.02
CV 1.65 0.91 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%———27.27%
14.55%18.18%9.09%———31.82%
29.09%18.18%4.55%———31.82%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%54.55%22.73%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.00 +0.23
SD 0.97 0.69 1.34
CV 0.79 0.69 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—22.73%4.55%——36.36%
113.64%9.09%—4.55%—4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total31.82%18.18%36.36%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.45 -0.27
SD 1.33 1.44 2.07
CV 1.13 0.99 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Molde 29 33.48 -4.48
2 Tromso 24 29.03 -5.03
3 Lillestrom 29 34.40 -5.40
4 Rosenborg 33 38.74 -5.74
5 Brann 18 25.02 -7.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Djerv 1919 10 24.83 -14.83
2 Bryne 16 27.30 -11.30
3 Sogndal 23 32.75 -9.75
4 Moss 26 35.07 -9.07
5 Kongsvinger 21 30.00 -9.00

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Moss 4 May 15 – Jun 4 1 in 49
2 Tromso 3 Aug 7 – Aug 21 1 in 45
3 Lillestrom 4 Jun 5 – Jul 3 1 in 33
4 Molde 4 Sep 11 – Oct 9 1 in 24
5 Brann 2 May 23 – May 30 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sogndal 3 Sep 25 – Oct 9 1 in 72
2 Brann 4 May 1 – May 16 1 in 42
3 Djerv 1919 6 Aug 21 – Oct 2 1 in 35
4 Valerenga 3 Aug 14 – Aug 28 1 in 25
5 Bryne 3 Jun 5 – Jun 26 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Moss 10 May 12 – Jul 24 1 in 36
2 Valerenga 8 Jun 5 – Aug 7 1 in 30
3 Molde 8 Jun 19 – Aug 14 1 in 23
4 Tromso 6 Aug 7 – Sep 10 1 in 20
5 Kongsvinger 5 Jul 3 – Aug 7 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Djerv 1919 10 May 12 – Jul 24 1 in 76
2 Kongsvinger 7 May 29 – Jul 24 1 in 35
3 Lillestrom 6 Jul 10 – Aug 21 1 in 35
4 Strommen 10 May 1 – Jul 3 1 in 17
5 Brann 8 Jun 5 – Aug 7 1 in 16

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Rosenborg40.11%20.67%13.45%9.15%6.04%3.99%2.82%1.76%1.00%0.63%0.31%0.07%
Lillestrom13.39%17.10%15.17%12.99%11.26%9.14%7.04%5.15%4.07%2.74%1.43%0.52%
Molde10.80%13.99%14.31%13.22%11.87%9.56%8.51%6.14%4.91%3.67%2.05%0.97%
Moss15.92%16.99%14.94%13.30%11.04%8.62%6.80%4.82%3.41%2.34%1.31%0.51%
Tromso2.75%4.58%6.99%8.17%9.36%11.82%11.67%11.65%11.11%10.17%7.50%4.23%
Sogndal8.24%10.76%11.99%12.43%12.50%11.10%10.14%7.99%6.42%4.39%2.81%1.23%
Valerenga2.85%4.66%6.38%8.75%10.35%10.61%12.02%11.96%11.20%9.56%7.45%4.21%
Kongsvinger3.56%5.87%8.07%9.44%10.45%11.69%11.86%11.98%9.76%8.38%5.88%3.06%
Brann0.52%1.30%2.15%3.18%4.48%6.13%8.05%10.66%13.77%16.00%18.48%15.28%
Bryne1.29%2.80%4.32%5.89%7.37%9.50%10.08%12.85%12.96%13.04%12.08%7.82%
Strommen0.03%0.11%0.36%0.66%1.25%1.84%3.21%5.35%8.30%12.87%21.46%44.56%
Djerv 19190.54%1.17%1.87%2.82%4.03%6.00%7.80%9.69%13.09%16.21%19.24%17.54%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.97%
Clear Edge
47.73%26.52%25.76%
Elo Value
Home Edge
134 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
077.60400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.58 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.58+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Rosenborg, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.6 * Some Luck: 4.6 to 6.9 * Lucky: 6.9 to 9.2 * Wild Swing: 9.2 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.77 * Close: 1.77 to 2.65 * Off: 2.65 to 3.54 * Way Off: 3.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.40 points
Some Luck
05.7514
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
02.215
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
93.80%
Rosenborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.75%
Djerv 1919
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.46
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
71%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.89
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.09
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.39
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.072
Well Within Noise
00.1450.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Rosenborg 98.99% 0.63% 0.38%
Moss 95.84% 2.34% 1.82%
Lillestrom 95.31% 2.74% 1.95%
Molde 93.31% 3.67% 3.02%
Sogndal 91.57% 4.39% 4.04%
Kongsvinger 82.68% 8.38% 8.94%
Valerenga 78.78% 9.56% 11.66%
Tromso 78.10% 10.17% 11.73%
Bryne 67.06% 13.04% 19.90%
Brann 50.24% 16.00% 33.76%
Djerv 1919 47.01% 16.21% 36.78%
Strommen 21.11% 12.87% 66.02%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1988-05-01 Valerenga L 1-2 1249 1253 46.0% 27.7% 26.3% -14.3 0
1988-05-01 @ Brann W 2-1 1253 1249 26.3% 27.7% 46.0% +14.3 2
1988-05-01 Molde D 0-0 1255 1268 44.8% 27.8% 27.5% -1.3 1
1988-05-01 @ Bryne D 0-0 1268 1255 27.5% 27.8% 44.8% +1.3 1
1988-05-01 Tromso D 1-1 1303 1223 55.8% 26.1% 18.0% -2.8 1
1988-05-01 @ Djerv 1919 D 1-1 1223 1303 18.0% 26.1% 55.8% +2.8 1
1988-05-01 Strommen W 1-0 1270 1205 54.2% 26.5% 19.3% +7.7 2
1988-05-01 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1205 1270 19.3% 26.5% 54.2% -7.7 0
1988-05-01 Moss W 2-1 1270 1275 45.8% 27.7% 26.5% +9.4 2
1988-05-01 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1275 1270 26.5% 27.7% 45.8% -9.4 0
1988-05-01 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1272 1285 44.8% 27.8% 27.4% +10.3 2
1988-05-01 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1285 1272 27.4% 27.8% 44.8% -10.3 0
1988-05-08 Brann W 1-0 1275 1234 51.4% 27.0% 21.6% +8.5 2
1988-05-08 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1234 1275 21.6% 27.0% 51.4% -8.5 0
1988-05-08 Sogndal D 1-1 1270 1282 44.9% 27.8% 27.3% -1.2 2
1988-05-08 @ Molde D 1-1 1282 1270 27.3% 27.8% 44.9% +1.2 3
1988-05-08 Djerv 1919 L 0-1 1266 1301 42.0% 28.0% 30.1% -14.1 0
1988-05-08 @ Moss W 1-0 1301 1266 30.1% 28.0% 42.0% +14.1 3
1988-05-08 Rosenborg L 0-3 1197 1279 35.3% 28.1% 36.6% -34.0 0
1988-05-08 @ Strommen W 3-0 1279 1197 36.6% 28.1% 35.3% +34.0 4
1988-05-08 Bryne W 3-0 1226 1253 42.9% 27.9% 29.2% +29.5 3
1988-05-08 @ Tromso L 0-3 1253 1226 29.2% 27.9% 42.9% -29.5 1
1988-05-09 Lillestrom D 0-0 1267 1278 45.1% 27.7% 27.1% -1.4 3
1988-05-09 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1278 1267 27.1% 27.7% 45.1% +1.4 3
1988-05-12 Rosenborg D 1-1 1283 1313 42.6% 27.9% 29.5% -0.9 3
1988-05-12 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1313 1283 29.5% 27.9% 42.6% +0.9 5
1988-05-12 Lillestrom D 0-0 1268 1279 45.1% 27.7% 27.1% -1.4 3
1988-05-12 @ Molde D 0-0 1279 1268 27.1% 27.7% 45.1% +1.4 4
1988-05-12 Bryne D 1-1 1252 1224 50.0% 27.2% 22.8% -1.9 1
1988-05-12 @ Moss D 1-1 1224 1252 22.8% 27.2% 50.0% +1.9 2
1988-05-12 Brann W 2-0 1283 1226 53.4% 26.6% 20.0% +14.9 5
1988-05-12 @ Sogndal L 0-2 1226 1283 20.0% 26.6% 53.4% -14.9 0
1988-05-12 Tromso D 1-1 1163 1255 33.9% 28.1% 38.0% +0.3 1
1988-05-12 @ Strommen D 1-1 1255 1163 38.0% 28.1% 33.9% -0.3 4
1988-05-12 Djerv 1919 W 2-1 1266 1315 40.0% 28.1% 32.0% +10.9 5
1988-05-12 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1315 1266 32.0% 28.1% 40.0% -10.9 3
1988-05-15 Sogndal D 1-1 1226 1298 36.7% 28.1% 35.2% -0.1 3
1988-05-15 @ Bryne D 1-1 1298 1226 35.2% 28.1% 36.7% +0.1 6
1988-05-15 Strommen D 1-1 1304 1163 61.8% 24.5% 13.7% -3.6 4
1988-05-15 @ Djerv 1919 D 1-1 1163 1304 13.7% 24.5% 61.8% +3.6 2
1988-05-15 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1281 1282 46.3% 27.6% 26.1% +9.3 6
1988-05-15 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1282 1281 26.1% 27.6% 46.3% -9.3 3
1988-05-15 Moss L 0-1 1255 1250 47.2% 27.6% 25.3% -15.5 4
1988-05-15 @ Tromso W 1-0 1250 1255 25.3% 27.6% 47.2% +15.5 3
1988-05-16 Molde L 1-4 1211 1267 39.0% 28.1% 32.9% -30.8 0
1988-05-16 @ Brann W 4-1 1267 1211 32.9% 28.1% 39.0% +30.8 5
1988-05-16 Valerenga W 3-0 1314 1276 51.1% 27.0% 21.9% +23.4 7
1988-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1276 1314 21.9% 27.0% 51.1% -23.4 5
1988-05-23 Brann L 0-2 1226 1180 52.0% 26.9% 21.1% -31.8 3
1988-05-23 @ Bryne W 2-0 1180 1226 21.1% 26.9% 52.0% +31.8 2
1988-05-23 Kongsvinger L 0-2 1300 1273 49.9% 27.2% 22.9% -30.7 4
1988-05-23 @ Djerv 1919 W 2-0 1273 1300 22.9% 27.2% 49.9% +30.7 5
1988-05-23 Sogndal W 4-1 1290 1298 45.5% 27.7% 26.8% +23.3 8
1988-05-23 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1298 1290 26.8% 27.7% 45.5% -23.3 6
1988-05-23 Strommen W 2-0 1265 1167 57.7% 25.7% 16.6% +12.6 5
1988-05-23 @ Moss L 0-2 1167 1265 16.6% 25.7% 57.7% -12.6 2
1988-05-23 Molde W 4-2 1338 1298 51.4% 27.0% 21.6% +12.4 9
1988-05-23 @ Rosenborg L 2-4 1298 1338 21.6% 27.0% 51.4% -12.4 5
1988-05-23 Valerenga D 2-2 1240 1253 44.8% 27.8% 27.4% -0.9 5
1988-05-23 @ Tromso D 2-2 1253 1240 27.4% 27.8% 44.8% +0.9 6
1988-05-29 Tromso L 1-2 1304 1239 54.2% 26.5% 19.3% -16.5 5
1988-05-29 @ Kongsvinger W 2-1 1239 1304 19.3% 26.5% 54.2% +16.5 7
1988-05-29 Djerv 1919 W 1-0 1285 1269 48.5% 27.4% 24.1% +9.3 7
1988-05-29 @ Molde L 0-1 1269 1285 24.1% 27.4% 48.5% -9.3 4
1988-05-29 Rosenborg D 0-0 1275 1350 36.3% 28.1% 35.6% -0.1 7
1988-05-29 @ Sogndal D 0-0 1350 1275 35.6% 28.1% 36.3% +0.0 10
1988-05-29 Bryne L 0-3 1154 1194 41.3% 28.0% 30.7% -38.2 2
1988-05-29 @ Strommen W 3-0 1194 1154 30.7% 28.0% 41.3% +38.2 5
1988-05-29 Moss L 0-2 1254 1278 43.4% 27.9% 28.8% -27.3 6
1988-05-29 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1278 1254 28.8% 27.9% 43.4% +27.3 7
1988-05-30 Lillestrom W 1-0 1212 1313 32.6% 28.1% 39.3% +13.4 4
1988-05-30 @ Brann L 0-1 1313 1212 39.3% 28.1% 32.6% -13.4 8
1988-06-04 Kongsvinger W 6-0 1305 1287 48.8% 27.4% 23.8% +48.1 9
1988-06-04 @ Moss L 0-6 1287 1305 23.8% 27.4% 48.8% -48.1 5
1988-06-05 Lillestrom L 2-3 1232 1300 37.4% 28.1% 34.5% -11.6 5
1988-06-05 @ Bryne W 3-2 1300 1232 34.5% 28.1% 37.4% +11.6 10
1988-06-05 Sogndal L 1-2 1260 1275 44.6% 27.8% 27.6% -14.0 4
1988-06-05 @ Djerv 1919 W 2-1 1275 1260 27.6% 27.8% 44.6% +14.0 9
1988-06-05 Brann D 1-1 1350 1225 60.3% 24.9% 14.7% -3.4 11
1988-06-05 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1225 1350 14.7% 24.9% 60.3% +3.4 5
1988-06-05 Valerenga L 2-5 1116 1227 31.4% 28.0% 40.6% -22.8 2
1988-06-05 @ Strommen W 5-2 1227 1116 40.6% 28.0% 31.4% +22.8 8
1988-06-05 Molde W 1-0 1255 1295 41.3% 28.0% 30.7% +11.2 9
1988-06-05 @ Tromso L 0-1 1295 1255 30.7% 28.0% 41.3% -11.2 7
1988-06-19 Djerv 1919 D 1-1 1229 1246 44.2% 27.8% 28.0% -1.1 6
1988-06-19 @ Brann D 1-1 1246 1229 28.0% 27.8% 44.2% +1.1 5
1988-06-19 Strommen D 1-1 1239 1093 62.3% 24.3% 13.4% -3.7 6
1988-06-19 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1093 1239 13.4% 24.3% 62.3% +3.7 3
1988-06-19 Rosenborg W 4-1 1311 1347 41.9% 28.0% 30.2% +25.5 12
1988-06-19 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1347 1311 30.2% 28.0% 41.9% -25.5 11
1988-06-19 Moss D 1-1 1283 1354 37.0% 28.1% 34.9% -0.1 8
1988-06-19 @ Molde D 1-1 1354 1283 34.9% 28.1% 37.0% +0.1 10
1988-06-19 Tromso W 2-1 1289 1266 49.3% 27.3% 23.4% +8.5 11
1988-06-19 @ Sogndal L 1-2 1266 1289 23.4% 27.3% 49.3% -8.5 9
1988-06-19 Bryne W 1-0 1249 1220 50.1% 27.2% 22.7% +8.8 10
1988-06-19 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1220 1249 22.7% 27.2% 50.1% -8.8 5
1988-06-26 Rosenborg L 1-3 1212 1321 31.5% 28.0% 40.4% -18.7 5
1988-06-26 @ Bryne W 3-1 1321 1212 40.4% 28.0% 31.5% +18.7 13
1988-06-26 Lillestrom L 1-2 1247 1337 34.2% 28.1% 37.6% -11.4 5
1988-06-26 @ Djerv 1919 W 2-1 1337 1247 37.6% 28.1% 34.2% +11.4 14
1988-06-26 Sogndal W 1-0 1354 1297 53.2% 26.7% 20.1% +8.0 12
1988-06-26 @ Moss L 0-1 1297 1354 20.1% 26.7% 53.2% -8.0 11
1988-06-26 Molde D 0-0 1097 1283 22.5% 27.2% 50.3% +2.2 4
1988-06-26 @ Strommen D 0-0 1283 1097 50.3% 27.2% 22.5% -2.2 9
1988-06-26 Brann W 2-0 1258 1228 50.2% 27.2% 22.6% +16.6 11
1988-06-26 @ Tromso L 0-2 1228 1258 22.6% 27.2% 50.2% -16.6 6
1988-06-26 Kongsvinger W 2-0 1258 1235 49.4% 27.3% 23.4% +17.0 12
1988-06-26 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1235 1258 23.4% 27.3% 49.4% -17.0 6
1988-07-03 Moss D 0-0 1211 1362 26.4% 27.7% 45.9% +1.5 7
1988-07-03 @ Brann D 0-0 1362 1211 45.9% 27.7% 26.4% -1.5 13
1988-07-03 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1193 1218 43.2% 27.9% 28.9% -1.1 6
1988-07-03 @ Bryne D 0-0 1218 1193 28.9% 27.9% 43.2% +1.1 7
1988-07-03 Tromso W 2-0 1348 1274 55.2% 26.3% 18.6% +14.0 16
1988-07-03 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1274 1348 18.6% 26.3% 55.2% -14.0 11
1988-07-03 Valerenga D 2-2 1281 1275 47.2% 27.5% 25.2% -1.1 10
1988-07-03 @ Molde D 2-2 1275 1281 25.2% 27.5% 47.2% +1.1 13
1988-07-03 Djerv 1919 W 8-0 1340 1236 58.3% 25.5% 16.2% +45.1 15
1988-07-03 @ Rosenborg L 0-8 1236 1340 16.2% 25.5% 58.3% -45.1 5
1988-07-03 Strommen W 1-0 1289 1099 66.1% 22.9% 11.0% +4.4 13
1988-07-03 @ Sogndal L 0-1 1099 1289 11.0% 22.9% 66.1% -4.4 4
1988-07-10 Djerv 1919 W 5-2 1192 1191 46.7% 27.6% 25.8% +19.6 8
1988-07-10 @ Bryne L 2-5 1191 1192 25.8% 27.6% 46.7% -19.5 5
1988-07-10 Molde D 0-0 1219 1280 38.4% 28.1% 33.6% -0.4 8
1988-07-10 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1280 1219 33.6% 28.1% 38.4% +0.4 11
1988-07-10 Lillestrom D 1-1 1360 1362 46.2% 27.6% 26.1% -1.4 14
1988-07-10 @ Moss D 1-1 1362 1360 26.1% 27.6% 46.2% +1.4 17
1988-07-10 Brann W 2-0 1095 1212 30.5% 28.0% 41.6% +26.4 6
1988-07-10 @ Strommen L 0-2 1212 1095 41.6% 28.0% 30.5% -26.4 7
1988-07-10 Rosenborg L 1-2 1260 1385 29.6% 27.9% 42.5% -10.3 11
1988-07-10 @ Tromso W 2-1 1385 1260 42.5% 27.9% 29.6% +10.3 17
1988-07-10 Sogndal D 1-1 1276 1294 44.3% 27.8% 27.9% -1.1 14
1988-07-10 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1294 1276 27.9% 27.8% 44.3% +1.1 14
1988-07-24 Sogndal D 0-0 1219 1295 36.2% 28.1% 35.7% -0.0 9
1988-07-24 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1295 1219 35.7% 28.1% 36.2% +0.0 15
1988-07-24 Bryne W 6-2 1280 1211 54.6% 26.4% 19.0% +19.1 13
1988-07-24 @ Molde L 2-6 1211 1280 19.0% 26.4% 54.6% -19.2 8
1988-07-24 Rosenborg W 2-1 1359 1395 41.7% 28.0% 30.3% +10.5 16
1988-07-24 @ Moss L 1-2 1395 1359 30.3% 28.0% 41.7% -10.4 17
1988-07-24 Lillestrom D 0-0 1121 1364 17.5% 25.9% 56.6% +3.2 7
1988-07-24 @ Strommen D 0-0 1364 1121 56.6% 25.9% 17.5% -3.2 18
1988-07-24 Djerv 1919 W 2-1 1250 1171 55.7% 26.2% 18.1% +6.8 13
1988-07-24 @ Tromso L 1-2 1171 1250 18.1% 26.2% 55.7% -6.8 5
1988-07-24 Brann D 1-1 1275 1186 56.8% 25.9% 17.3% -2.9 15
1988-07-24 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1186 1275 17.3% 25.9% 56.8% +2.9 8
1988-07-31 Kongsvinger L 1-2 1189 1219 42.6% 27.9% 29.5% -13.5 8
1988-07-31 @ Brann W 2-1 1219 1189 29.5% 27.9% 42.6% +13.5 11
1988-07-31 Tromso W 2-0 1192 1257 37.8% 28.1% 34.1% +22.8 10
1988-07-31 @ Bryne L 0-2 1257 1192 34.1% 28.1% 37.8% -22.8 13
1988-07-31 Moss W 1-0 1164 1369 20.7% 26.8% 52.5% +17.0 7
1988-07-31 @ Djerv 1919 L 0-1 1369 1164 52.5% 26.8% 20.7% -17.0 16
1988-07-31 Valerenga L 0-1 1360 1272 56.7% 25.9% 17.4% -18.2 18
1988-07-31 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1272 1360 17.4% 25.9% 56.7% +18.2 17
1988-07-31 Strommen W 3-1 1385 1124 71.6% 20.4% 8.1% +5.1 19
1988-07-31 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1124 1385 8.1% 20.4% 71.6% -5.1 7
1988-07-31 Molde D 1-1 1295 1299 45.9% 27.7% 26.4% -1.3 16
1988-07-31 @ Sogndal D 1-1 1299 1295 26.4% 27.7% 45.9% +1.3 14
1988-08-07 Lillestrom D 0-0 1232 1342 31.5% 28.0% 40.5% +0.7 12
1988-08-07 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1342 1232 40.5% 28.0% 31.5% -0.7 19
1988-08-07 Brann W 2-0 1301 1175 60.4% 24.9% 14.7% +11.2 16
1988-08-07 @ Molde L 0-2 1175 1301 14.7% 24.9% 60.4% -11.2 8
1988-08-07 Tromso L 1-2 1352 1234 59.7% 25.1% 15.2% -17.9 16
1988-08-07 @ Moss W 2-1 1234 1352 15.2% 25.1% 59.7% +17.9 15
1988-08-07 Bryne W 3-2 1294 1215 55.7% 26.2% 18.2% +6.5 18
1988-08-07 @ Sogndal L 2-3 1215 1294 18.2% 26.2% 55.7% -6.5 10
1988-08-07 Djerv 1919 W 5-0 1119 1181 38.2% 28.1% 33.8% +53.0 9
1988-08-07 @ Strommen L 0-5 1181 1119 33.8% 28.1% 38.2% -53.0 7
1988-08-07 Rosenborg D 0-0 1291 1390 32.9% 28.1% 39.0% +0.5 18
1988-08-07 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1390 1291 39.0% 28.1% 32.9% -0.5 20
1988-08-14 Sogndal W 1-0 1164 1300 28.1% 27.8% 44.0% +14.7 10
1988-08-14 @ Brann L 0-1 1300 1164 44.0% 27.8% 28.1% -14.7 18
1988-08-14 Moss L 0-1 1209 1334 29.4% 27.9% 42.6% -10.8 10
1988-08-14 @ Bryne W 1-0 1334 1209 42.6% 27.9% 29.4% +10.9 18
1988-08-14 Valerenga W 2-0 1128 1291 25.0% 27.5% 47.4% +29.4 9
1988-08-14 @ Djerv 1919 L 0-2 1291 1128 47.4% 27.5% 25.0% -29.4 18
1988-08-14 Molde L 0-1 1342 1312 50.1% 27.2% 22.7% -16.3 19
1988-08-14 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1312 1342 22.7% 27.2% 50.1% +16.3 18
1988-08-14 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1389 1233 63.2% 24.0% 12.8% +5.2 22
1988-08-14 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1233 1389 12.8% 24.0% 63.2% -5.2 12
1988-08-14 Strommen W 2-0 1252 1172 55.8% 26.1% 18.1% +13.6 17
1988-08-14 @ Tromso L 0-2 1172 1252 18.1% 26.1% 55.8% -13.6 9
1988-08-21 Bryne W 1-0 1179 1198 44.1% 27.8% 28.1% +10.5 12
1988-08-21 @ Brann L 0-1 1198 1179 28.1% 27.8% 44.1% -10.5 10
1988-08-21 Djerv 1919 W 6-0 1228 1158 54.8% 26.4% 18.9% +39.4 14
1988-08-21 @ Kongsvinger L 0-6 1158 1228 18.9% 26.4% 54.8% -39.5 9
1988-08-21 Rosenborg L 2-4 1328 1395 37.6% 28.1% 34.3% -19.0 18
1988-08-21 @ Molde W 4-2 1395 1328 34.3% 28.1% 37.6% +19.0 24
1988-08-21 Lillestrom W 3-1 1285 1325 41.2% 28.0% 30.8% +18.3 20
1988-08-21 @ Sogndal L 1-3 1325 1285 30.8% 28.0% 41.2% -18.3 19
1988-08-21 Moss L 0-1 1159 1345 22.5% 27.1% 50.4% -8.8 9
1988-08-21 @ Strommen W 1-0 1345 1159 50.4% 27.1% 22.5% +8.8 20
1988-08-21 Tromso L 1-3 1262 1266 46.0% 27.7% 26.4% -24.8 18
1988-08-21 @ Valerenga W 3-1 1266 1262 26.4% 27.7% 46.0% +24.8 19
1988-08-28 Strommen W 1-0 1187 1150 51.1% 27.0% 21.9% +8.6 12
1988-08-28 @ Bryne L 0-1 1150 1187 21.9% 27.0% 51.1% -8.6 9
1988-08-28 Molde L 0-1 1118 1309 22.0% 27.1% 50.9% -8.6 9
1988-08-28 @ Djerv 1919 W 1-0 1309 1118 50.9% 27.1% 22.0% +8.6 20
1988-08-28 Brann W 4-1 1307 1189 59.6% 25.1% 15.2% +14.2 21
1988-08-28 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1189 1307 15.2% 25.1% 59.6% -14.2 12
1988-08-28 Valerenga W 2-0 1354 1237 59.6% 25.2% 15.2% +11.7 22
1988-08-28 @ Moss L 0-2 1237 1354 15.2% 25.2% 59.6% -11.7 18
1988-08-28 Sogndal W 3-2 1414 1304 58.9% 25.4% 15.8% +5.7 26
1988-08-28 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1304 1414 15.8% 25.4% 58.9% -5.7 20
1988-08-28 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1291 1267 49.4% 27.3% 23.3% -1.8 20
1988-08-28 @ Tromso D 1-1 1267 1291 23.3% 27.3% 49.4% +1.8 15
1988-09-03 Moss W 3-0 1269 1366 33.3% 28.1% 38.6% +36.3 17
1988-09-03 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1366 1269 38.6% 28.1% 33.3% -36.3 22
1988-09-04 Rosenborg L 0-4 1175 1419 17.3% 25.9% 56.8% -24.9 12
1988-09-04 @ Brann W 4-0 1419 1175 56.8% 25.9% 17.3% +24.9 28
1988-09-04 Bryne D 1-1 1321 1196 60.4% 24.9% 14.7% -3.4 22
1988-09-04 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1196 1321 14.7% 24.9% 60.4% +3.4 13
1988-09-04 Tromso D 0-0 1318 1289 50.1% 27.2% 22.7% -2.2 21
1988-09-04 @ Molde D 0-0 1289 1318 22.7% 27.2% 50.1% +2.2 21
1988-09-04 Djerv 1919 W 4-1 1298 1110 66.0% 22.9% 11.1% +10.3 22
1988-09-04 @ Sogndal L 1-4 1110 1298 11.1% 22.9% 66.0% -10.3 9
1988-09-04 Strommen W 4-0 1225 1141 56.2% 26.0% 17.7% +25.5 20
1988-09-04 @ Valerenga L 0-4 1141 1225 17.7% 26.0% 56.2% -25.5 9
1988-09-10 Sogndal D 1-1 1291 1308 44.2% 27.8% 27.9% -1.1 22
1988-09-10 @ Tromso D 1-1 1308 1291 27.9% 27.8% 44.2% +1.1 23
1988-09-11 Valerenga W 6-1 1199 1251 39.7% 28.1% 32.3% +42.5 15
1988-09-11 @ Bryne L 1-6 1251 1199 32.3% 28.1% 39.7% -42.5 20
1988-09-11 Brann L 0-1 1099 1150 39.8% 28.1% 32.2% -13.6 9
1988-09-11 @ Djerv 1919 W 1-0 1150 1099 32.2% 28.1% 39.8% +13.5 14
1988-09-11 Molde L 0-2 1329 1316 48.2% 27.4% 24.4% -29.8 22
1988-09-11 @ Moss W 2-0 1316 1329 24.4% 27.4% 48.2% +29.8 23
1988-09-11 Lillestrom D 1-1 1444 1318 60.5% 24.9% 14.6% -3.4 29
1988-09-11 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1318 1444 14.6% 24.9% 60.5% +3.4 23
1988-09-11 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1116 1305 22.2% 27.1% 50.7% +16.5 11
1988-09-11 @ Strommen L 0-1 1305 1116 50.7% 27.1% 22.2% -16.5 17
1988-09-24 Djerv 1919 W 8-1 1321 1086 69.7% 21.3% 9.0% +17.8 25
1988-09-24 @ Lillestrom L 1-8 1086 1321 9.0% 21.3% 69.7% -17.8 9
1988-09-25 Tromso W 1-0 1164 1290 29.4% 27.9% 42.7% +14.3 16
1988-09-25 @ Brann L 0-1 1290 1164 42.7% 27.9% 29.4% -14.3 22
1988-09-25 Valerenga W 2-0 1289 1208 55.9% 26.1% 18.0% +13.6 19
1988-09-25 @ Kongsvinger L 0-2 1208 1289 18.0% 26.1% 55.9% -13.6 20
1988-09-25 Strommen W 3-0 1346 1132 68.0% 22.1% 9.9% +10.9 25
1988-09-25 @ Molde L 0-3 1132 1346 9.9% 22.1% 68.0% -10.9 11
1988-09-25 Bryne W 2-1 1441 1242 66.9% 22.6% 10.6% +4.0 31
1988-09-25 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1242 1441 10.6% 22.6% 66.9% -4.0 15
1988-09-25 Moss L 0-4 1310 1300 47.8% 27.5% 24.8% -56.1 23
1988-09-25 @ Sogndal W 4-0 1300 1310 24.8% 27.5% 47.8% +56.1 24
1988-10-02 Rosenborg L 1-6 1068 1445 9.6% 21.8% 68.7% -13.9 9
1988-10-02 @ Djerv 1919 W 6-1 1445 1068 68.7% 21.8% 9.6% +13.9 33
1988-10-02 Bryne W 1-0 1303 1238 54.2% 26.5% 19.3% +7.7 21
1988-10-02 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1238 1303 19.3% 26.5% 54.2% -7.7 15
1988-10-02 Brann W 2-1 1356 1178 65.1% 23.3% 11.6% +4.4 26
1988-10-02 @ Moss L 1-2 1178 1356 11.6% 23.3% 65.1% -4.4 16
1988-10-02 Sogndal W 2-1 1121 1253 28.6% 27.9% 43.5% +13.7 13
1988-10-02 @ Strommen L 1-2 1253 1121 43.5% 27.9% 28.6% -13.7 23
1988-10-02 Lillestrom L 0-1 1275 1339 38.0% 28.1% 34.0% -13.1 22
1988-10-02 @ Tromso W 1-0 1339 1275 34.0% 28.1% 38.0% +13.1 27
1988-10-02 Molde L 0-2 1195 1357 25.1% 27.5% 47.4% -18.1 20
1988-10-02 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1357 1195 47.4% 27.5% 25.1% +18.1 27
1988-10-09 Strommen W 1-0 1174 1135 51.2% 27.0% 21.8% +8.5 18
1988-10-09 @ Brann L 0-1 1135 1174 21.8% 27.0% 51.2% -8.5 13
1988-10-09 Bryne D 1-1 1054 1230 23.6% 27.3% 49.1% +1.8 10
1988-10-09 @ Djerv 1919 D 1-1 1230 1054 49.1% 27.3% 23.6% -1.8 16
1988-10-09 Moss W 3-1 1352 1360 45.5% 27.7% 26.8% +16.5 29
1988-10-09 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1360 1352 26.8% 27.7% 45.5% -16.5 26
1988-10-09 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1375 1310 54.1% 26.5% 19.4% +17.8 29
1988-10-09 @ Molde L 1-4 1310 1375 19.4% 26.5% 54.1% -17.8 21
1988-10-09 Tromso L 1-2 1459 1262 66.6% 22.7% 10.7% -19.7 33
1988-10-09 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1262 1459 10.7% 22.7% 66.6% +19.7 24
1988-10-09 Valerenga L 0-1 1240 1176 54.0% 26.5% 19.5% -17.4 23
1988-10-09 @ Sogndal W 1-0 1176 1240 19.5% 26.5% 54.0% +17.4 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1988-10-09 10.70% Tromso 1262 2 @ Rosenborg 1459 1
2 1988-08-07 15.19% Tromso 1234 2 @ Moss 1352 1
3 1988-07-31 17.40% Valerenga 1272 1 @ Lillestrom 1360 0
4 1988-05-29 19.34% Tromso 1239 2 @ Kongsvinger 1304 1
5 1988-10-09 19.48% Valerenga 1176 1 @ Sogndal 1240 0
6 1988-07-31 20.72% @ Djerv 1919 1164 1 Moss 1369 0
7 1988-05-23 21.09% Brann 1180 2 @ Bryne 1226 0
8 1988-09-11 22.19% @ Strommen 1116 1 Kongsvinger 1305 0
9 1988-08-14 22.68% Molde 1312 1 @ Lillestrom 1342 0
10 1988-05-23 22.92% Kongsvinger 1273 2 @ Djerv 1919 1300 0
11 1988-09-11 24.38% Molde 1316 2 @ Moss 1329 0
12 1988-09-25 24.75% Moss 1300 4 @ Sogndal 1310 0
13 1988-08-14 25.04% @ Djerv 1919 1128 2 Valerenga 1291 0
14 1988-05-15 25.28% Moss 1250 1 @ Tromso 1255 0
15 1988-05-01 26.34% Valerenga 1253 2 @ Brann 1249 1
16 1988-08-21 26.35% Tromso 1266 3 @ Valerenga 1262 1
17 1988-06-05 27.59% Sogndal 1275 2 @ Djerv 1919 1260 1
18 1988-08-14 28.15% @ Brann 1164 1 Sogndal 1300 0
19 1988-10-02 28.65% @ Strommen 1121 2 Sogndal 1253 1
20 1988-05-29 28.76% Moss 1278 2 @ Valerenga 1254 0
21 1988-09-25 29.37% @ Brann 1164 1 Tromso 1290 0
22 1988-07-31 29.49% Kongsvinger 1219 2 @ Brann 1189 1
23 1988-05-08 30.06% Djerv 1919 1301 1 @ Moss 1266 0
24 1988-07-10 30.46% @ Strommen 1095 2 Brann 1212 0
25 1988-05-29 30.71% Bryne 1194 3 @ Strommen 1154 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1988-09-25 56.11 Moss 4 1300 24.75% @ Sogndal 0 1310 47.77% 27.48%
2 1988-08-07 52.99 @ Strommen 5 1119 38.16% Djerv 1919 0 1181 33.75% 28.09%
3 1988-06-04 48.14 @ Moss 6 1305 48.80% Kongsvinger 0 1287 23.85% 27.36%
4 1988-07-03 45.08 @ Rosenborg 8 1340 58.28% Djerv 1919 0 1236 16.20% 25.52%
5 1988-09-11 42.46 @ Bryne 6 1199 39.67% Valerenga 1 1251 32.28% 28.06%
6 1988-08-21 39.45 @ Kongsvinger 6 1228 54.76% Djerv 1919 0 1158 18.88% 26.36%
7 1988-05-29 38.22 Bryne 3 1194 30.71% @ Strommen 0 1154 41.30% 27.99%
8 1988-09-03 36.31 @ Kongsvinger 3 1269 33.29% Moss 0 1366 38.62% 28.08%
9 1988-05-08 33.99 Rosenborg 3 1279 36.61% @ Strommen 0 1197 35.28% 28.11%
10 1988-05-23 31.80 Brann 2 1180 21.09% @ Bryne 0 1226 52.03% 26.88%
11 1988-05-16 30.84 Molde 4 1267 32.93% @ Brann 1 1211 39.00% 28.08%
12 1988-05-23 30.67 Kongsvinger 2 1273 22.92% @ Djerv 1919 0 1300 49.87% 27.21%
13 1988-09-11 29.79 Molde 2 1316 24.38% @ Moss 0 1329 48.19% 27.43%
14 1988-05-08 29.50 @ Tromso 3 1226 42.94% Bryne 0 1253 29.16% 27.90%
15 1988-08-14 29.41 @ Djerv 1919 2 1128 25.04% Valerenga 0 1291 47.44% 27.52%
16 1988-05-29 27.34 Moss 2 1278 28.76% @ Valerenga 0 1254 43.37% 27.88%
17 1988-07-10 26.44 @ Strommen 2 1095 30.46% Brann 0 1212 41.56% 27.98%
18 1988-06-19 25.53 @ Lillestrom 4 1311 41.87% Rosenborg 1 1347 30.16% 27.96%
19 1988-09-04 25.48 @ Valerenga 4 1225 56.22% Strommen 0 1141 17.74% 26.04%
20 1988-09-04 24.94 Rosenborg 4 1419 56.76% @ Brann 0 1175 17.33% 25.91%
21 1988-08-21 24.82 Tromso 3 1266 26.35% @ Valerenga 1 1262 45.98% 27.67%
22 1988-05-16 23.42 @ Rosenborg 3 1314 51.11% Valerenga 0 1276 21.86% 27.03%
23 1988-05-23 23.33 @ Lillestrom 4 1290 45.45% Sogndal 1 1298 26.84% 27.72%
24 1988-07-31 22.84 @ Bryne 2 1192 37.78% Tromso 0 1257 34.12% 28.10%
25 1988-06-05 22.78 Valerenga 5 1227 40.58% @ Strommen 2 1116 31.40% 28.02%