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1987 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Moss

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Moss

3.26 points above expected

29 points · 32.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lillestrom

13.87 points below expected

19 points · 32.87 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Moss 22 13 3 6 29 44 30 +14 32.26 -3.26
2 Rosenborg 22 8 11 3 27 33 25 +8 31.63 -4.63
3 Molde 22 11 5 6 27 27 20 +7 30.65 -3.65
4 Kongsvinger 22 9 8 5 26 32 22 +10 30.02 -4.02
5 Bryne 22 11 1 10 23 32 27 +5 31.74 -8.74
6 Valerenga 22 8 5 9 21 26 27 -1 29.87 -8.87
7 Brann 22 7 6 9 20 25 28 -3 29.06 -9.06
8 Lillestrom 22 7 5 10 19 22 21 +1 32.87 -13.87
9 Hamarkameratene 22 7 5 10 19 27 34 -7 27.64 -8.64
10 Tromso 22 5 9 8 19 19 31 -12 27.68 -8.68
11 Mjondalen 22 6 5 11 17 26 34 -8 30.14 -13.14
12 Start 22 6 5 11 17 30 44 -14 27.69 -10.69

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kongsvinger 1222 26 30.02 -4.02 82.6% 9 20 26 30 34 40 51
Moss 1207 29 32.26 -3.26 95.7% 11 23 28 32 36 42 58
Rosenborg 1190 27 31.63 -4.63 74.6% 11 22 28 32 36 42 55
Molde 1189 27 30.65 -3.65 90.9% 10 21 27 31 35 40 54
Lillestrom 1185 19 32.87 -13.87 14.9% 11 23 29 33 37 43 54
Bryne 1158 23 31.74 -8.74 68.3% 12 22 28 32 36 42 55
Valerenga 1152 21 29.87 -8.87 47.5% 5 20 26 30 34 40 58
Brann 1142 20 29.06 -9.06 40.0% 10 19 25 29 33 39 53
Hamarkameratene 1129 19 27.64 -8.64 43.8% 8 18 24 27 32 38 50
Mjondalen 1125 17 30.14 -13.14 13.0% 6 20 26 30 34 40 53
Start 1111 17 27.69 -10.69 24.5% 6 18 24 28 32 38 52
Tromso 1096 19 27.68 -8.68 29.9% 6 18 24 28 32 37 53

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA BRY HAM KON LIL MJO MOL MOS ROS STA TRO VAL
Brann —
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.45
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.45
1-0-1
2.34
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.96
1-1-0
2.75
2-0-0
2.63
Bryne
1-0-1
2.92
 —
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
2.53
2-0-0
2.94
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.58
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-2
3.20
1-0-1
2.84
Hamarkameratene
1-1-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.54
 —
1-1-0
2.49
1-0-1
2.30
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.50
1-0-1
2.30
1-1-0
2.24
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.72
0-0-2
2.63
Kongsvinger
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.97
 —
2-0-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.88
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
2.55
0-2-0
2.54
0-1-1
3.03
1-1-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.61
Lillestrom
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-2
2.94
1-0-1
3.17
0-0-2
3.03
 —
2-0-0
2.90
1-1-0
2.64
0-0-2
2.87
0-1-1
2.92
1-1-0
3.20
1-0-1
3.24
0-1-1
3.06
Mjondalen
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
2.52
1-1-0
2.94
0-1-1
2.63
0-0-2
2.58
 —
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.61
0-0-2
2.83
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.76
1-1-0
2.57
Molde
2-0-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.99
0-1-1
2.76
0-1-1
2.82
1-1-0
2.60
 —
0-0-2
2.79
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
2.79
1-1-0
2.85
2-0-0
2.73
Moss
1-0-1
3.14
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.17
1-0-1
2.93
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.88
2-0-0
2.68
 —
1-1-0
2.80
1-1-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.10
1-0-1
3.04
Rosenborg
0-2-0
2.97
1-1-0
2.59
0-1-1
3.24
0-2-0
2.93
1-1-0
2.55
2-0-0
2.64
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.68
 —
2-0-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.98
Start
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.46
0-0-2
2.42
 —
0-2-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.63
Tromso
0-1-1
2.71
2-0-0
2.29
1-1-0
2.75
0-1-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.36
0-1-1
2.45
0-2-0
2.71
 —
0-1-1
2.56
Valerenga
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
2.62
2-0-0
2.85
0-1-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.75
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.50
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
2.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.49 +4.6
Allowed 0.33 -3.6
Differential 0.85 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.85%8.71%6.44%3.41%1.14%0.76%30.30%
18.71%11.36%6.44%4.55%2.27%1.14%34.47%
26.44%6.44%4.55%0.76%1.14%—19.32%
33.41%4.55%0.76%—0.38%—9.09%
41.14%2.27%1.14%0.38%——4.92%
5+0.76%1.14%————1.89%
Total30.30%34.47%19.32%9.09%4.92%1.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.25 1.87
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%13.64%———31.82%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%31.82%18.18%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.27 -0.14
SD 1.21 1.20 1.81
CV 1.06 0.94 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.73%4.55%—4.55%—31.82%
113.64%—9.09%4.55%——27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%45.45%22.73%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.23 +0.23
SD 1.41 1.02 1.88
CV 0.97 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%———27.27%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%40.91%
24.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
39.09%—————9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%31.82%22.73%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.55 -0.32
SD 1.11 1.57 2.06
CV 0.90 1.01 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%————22.73%
113.64%13.64%4.55%—4.55%—36.36%
29.09%—9.09%———18.18%
3—13.64%——4.55%—18.18%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total40.91%36.36%13.64%—9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.00 +0.45
SD 1.18 1.20 1.50
CV 0.81 1.20 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%18.18%9.09%———45.45%
113.64%4.55%13.64%———31.82%
2—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total36.36%36.36%22.73%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.95 +0.05
SD 1.31 0.90 1.53
CV 1.31 0.94 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%—13.64%——31.82%
1—13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%—31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
313.64%—————13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%31.82%9.09%22.73%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.55 -0.36
SD 1.05 1.37 2.01
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
19.09%9.09%13.64%———31.82%
218.18%18.18%————36.36%
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total45.45%31.82%18.18%——4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 0.91 +0.32
SD 1.02 1.19 1.81
CV 0.83 1.31 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—13.64%4.55%——22.73%
19.09%4.55%—9.09%——22.73%
24.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total22.73%31.82%31.82%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.36 +0.64
SD 1.69 1.00 2.15
CV 0.85 0.73 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%4.55%——18.18%
1—36.36%——4.55%—40.91%
29.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%54.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.14 +0.36
SD 1.14 0.99 1.62
CV 0.76 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
14.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%36.36%
2—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%18.18%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.00 -0.64
SD 1.53 1.57 2.32
CV 1.12 0.79 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%40.91%
19.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%31.82%13.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.41 -0.55
SD 0.89 1.44 1.71
CV 1.03 1.02 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
113.64%4.55%13.64%4.55%——36.36%
29.09%—9.09%———18.18%
3—9.09%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total36.36%22.73%27.27%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.23 -0.05
SD 1.14 1.19 1.86
CV 0.96 0.97 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Moss 29 32.26 -3.26
2 Molde 27 30.65 -3.65
3 Kongsvinger 26 30.02 -4.02
4 Rosenborg 27 31.63 -4.63
5 Hamarkameratene 19 27.64 -8.64

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lillestrom 19 32.87 -13.87
2 Mjondalen 17 30.14 -13.14
3 Start 17 27.69 -10.69
4 Brann 20 29.06 -9.06
5 Valerenga 21 29.87 -8.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Moss 5 May 23 – Jun 27 1 in 143
2 Bryne 4 May 9 – May 23 1 in 79
3 Kongsvinger 3 Aug 29 – Sep 12 1 in 24
4 Rosenborg 3 Jul 11 – Aug 8 1 in 24
5 Molde 4 Sep 5 – Sep 26 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Start 5 Jun 27 – Aug 8 1 in 158
2 Bryne 4 Sep 23 – Oct 10 1 in 110
3 Lillestrom 3 Jun 8 – Jun 20 1 in 34
4 Brann 4 Sep 5 – Oct 3 1 in 24
5 Mjondalen 3 Sep 5 – Sep 26 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kongsvinger 13 Jul 4 – Oct 10 1 in 352
2 Molde 8 May 16 – Jul 4 1 in 51
3 Rosenborg 8 Jun 27 – Aug 29 1 in 34
4 Start 4 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 11
5 Moss 6 Jul 11 – Aug 29 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mjondalen 11 Jul 4 – Sep 26 1 in 163
2 Rosenborg 6 May 23 – Jul 4 1 in 20
3 Start 7 Jun 27 – Aug 22 1 in 19
4 Moss 5 Aug 29 – Sep 26 1 in 19
5 Kongsvinger 6 May 2 – Jun 8 1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Moss15.29%12.51%10.59%10.13%9.48%7.89%7.45%6.53%6.62%5.60%4.87%3.04%
Rosenborg12.32%11.20%10.44%9.71%8.94%9.05%8.16%7.80%6.66%5.91%5.27%4.54%
Molde8.97%10.03%9.05%9.01%9.12%8.39%8.59%8.20%8.65%7.53%6.86%5.60%
Kongsvinger7.81%8.40%9.11%8.69%9.09%8.40%8.60%8.54%8.51%8.29%7.71%6.85%
Bryne11.82%11.08%10.39%10.06%9.01%9.44%8.53%7.53%6.95%5.59%5.36%4.24%
Valerenga6.39%7.83%8.19%8.80%8.36%8.70%8.94%9.07%8.50%8.74%8.68%7.80%
Brann4.98%5.75%7.34%7.61%7.99%8.59%8.93%9.54%9.74%10.38%9.14%10.01%
Lillestrom16.01%13.02%11.00%9.91%9.01%8.81%7.53%6.35%5.87%4.86%4.46%3.17%
Hamarkameratene3.10%4.39%5.53%6.05%6.63%7.02%7.41%9.53%10.30%11.70%12.81%15.53%
Tromso2.89%4.38%5.12%5.75%6.85%7.47%8.51%8.98%9.86%12.00%12.75%15.44%
Mjondalen6.69%7.56%8.09%8.79%8.64%9.20%9.15%8.92%8.46%8.03%8.76%7.71%
Start3.73%3.85%5.15%5.49%6.88%7.04%8.20%9.01%9.88%11.37%13.33%16.07%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.21%
Clear Edge
47.73%25.76%26.52%
Elo Value
Home Edge
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
074.83500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.55 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
9.4
Wide Open
124612
Champion Preseason Odds
15%
Moss, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.75 * Some Luck: 4.75 to 7.13 * Lucky: 7.13 to 9.5 * Wild Swing: 9.5 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.64 * Close: 2.64 to 3.95 * Off: 3.95 to 5.27 * Way Off: 5.27 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.26 points
Some Luck
05.9415
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.67
Close
03.298
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.65%
Moss
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
13.04%
Mjondalen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.10
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.90
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
67%
Even
50%69%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.78
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
-0.37
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Shaky Favorites
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.58
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
-0.21
Overconfident
01.002.56872
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.1190.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Lillestrom 87.51% 4.86% 7.63%
Moss 86.49% 5.60% 7.91%
Bryne 84.81% 5.59% 9.60%
Rosenborg 84.28% 5.91% 9.81%
Molde 80.01% 7.53% 12.46%
Kongsvinger 77.15% 8.29% 14.56%
Mjondalen 75.50% 8.03% 16.47%
Valerenga 74.78% 8.74% 16.48%
Brann 70.47% 10.38% 19.15%
Tromso 59.81% 12.00% 28.19%
Hamarkameratene 59.96% 11.70% 28.34%
Start 59.23% 11.37% 29.40%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1987-05-02 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1153 1158 46.1% 26.6% 27.3% +5.1 2
1987-05-02 @ Brann L 1-2 1158 1153 27.3% 26.6% 46.1% -5.1 0
1987-05-02 Bryne W 1-0 1148 1146 47.0% 26.5% 26.5% +5.3 2
1987-05-02 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1146 1148 26.5% 26.5% 47.0% -5.3 0
1987-05-02 Start L 1-2 1143 1163 44.0% 26.9% 29.1% -7.4 0
1987-05-02 @ Molde W 2-1 1163 1143 29.1% 26.9% 44.0% +7.3 2
1987-05-02 Lillestrom W 2-1 1155 1207 39.6% 27.3% 33.1% +5.9 2
1987-05-02 @ Moss L 1-2 1207 1155 33.1% 27.3% 39.6% -5.9 0
1987-05-02 Mjondalen W 3-0 1157 1172 44.7% 26.8% 28.4% +15.3 2
1987-05-02 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1172 1157 28.4% 26.8% 44.7% -15.3 0
1987-05-02 Tromso D 0-0 1161 1143 49.1% 26.1% 24.8% -1.0 1
1987-05-02 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1143 1161 24.8% 26.1% 49.1% +1.0 1
1987-05-09 Molde W 2-1 1140 1136 47.3% 26.4% 26.2% +4.9 2
1987-05-09 @ Bryne L 1-2 1136 1140 26.2% 26.4% 47.3% -4.9 0
1987-05-09 Valerenga D 2-2 1153 1160 45.8% 26.7% 27.5% -0.5 1
1987-05-09 @ Kongsvinger D 2-2 1160 1153 27.5% 26.7% 45.8% +0.5 2
1987-05-09 Brann D 0-0 1201 1158 52.3% 25.4% 22.2% -1.3 1
1987-05-09 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1158 1201 22.2% 25.4% 52.3% +1.3 3
1987-05-09 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1156 1153 47.2% 26.5% 26.3% +9.9 2
1987-05-09 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1153 1156 26.3% 26.5% 47.2% -9.9 2
1987-05-09 Moss D 2-2 1171 1161 48.0% 26.3% 25.7% -0.6 3
1987-05-09 @ Start D 2-2 1161 1171 25.7% 26.3% 48.0% +0.6 3
1987-05-09 Rosenborg D 1-1 1144 1172 42.9% 27.0% 30.1% -0.5 2
1987-05-09 @ Tromso D 1-1 1172 1144 30.1% 27.0% 42.9% +0.5 3
1987-05-16 Valerenga W 1-0 1159 1160 46.6% 26.6% 26.9% +5.3 5
1987-05-16 @ Brann L 0-1 1160 1159 26.9% 26.6% 46.6% -5.3 2
1987-05-16 Tromso D 1-1 1143 1143 46.7% 26.5% 26.8% -0.7 3
1987-05-16 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1143 1143 26.8% 26.5% 46.7% +0.7 3
1987-05-16 Start W 5-1 1200 1170 50.6% 25.8% 23.6% +14.2 3
1987-05-16 @ Lillestrom L 1-5 1170 1200 23.6% 25.8% 50.6% -14.2 3
1987-05-16 Mjondalen W 1-0 1131 1166 41.9% 27.1% 31.0% +6.0 2
1987-05-16 @ Molde L 0-1 1166 1131 31.0% 27.1% 41.9% -6.0 2
1987-05-16 Bryne L 0-2 1162 1145 48.9% 26.2% 24.9% -16.0 3
1987-05-16 @ Moss W 2-0 1145 1162 24.9% 26.2% 48.9% +16.0 4
1987-05-16 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1173 1152 49.4% 26.1% 24.5% -1.0 4
1987-05-16 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1152 1173 24.5% 26.1% 49.4% +1.0 2
1987-05-20 Lillestrom W 1-0 1161 1214 39.5% 27.3% 33.3% +6.3 6
1987-05-20 @ Bryne L 0-1 1214 1161 33.3% 27.3% 39.5% -6.3 3
1987-05-20 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1153 1142 48.2% 26.3% 25.5% -8.4 2
1987-05-20 @ Kongsvinger W 1-0 1142 1153 25.5% 26.3% 48.2% +8.4 5
1987-05-20 Moss W 3-0 1160 1146 48.6% 26.2% 25.2% +13.8 4
1987-05-20 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1146 1160 25.2% 26.2% 48.6% -13.8 3
1987-05-20 Brann W 3-1 1156 1164 45.6% 26.7% 27.7% +8.9 5
1987-05-20 @ Start L 1-3 1164 1156 27.7% 26.7% 45.6% -8.9 5
1987-05-20 Molde D 0-0 1144 1137 47.7% 26.4% 25.9% -0.9 4
1987-05-20 @ Tromso D 0-0 1137 1144 25.9% 26.4% 47.7% +0.9 3
1987-05-20 Rosenborg L 1-2 1155 1172 44.5% 26.9% 28.7% -7.4 2
1987-05-20 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1172 1155 28.7% 26.9% 44.5% +7.4 6
1987-05-23 Rosenborg D 1-1 1155 1179 43.6% 27.0% 29.5% -0.5 6
1987-05-23 @ Brann D 1-1 1179 1155 29.5% 27.0% 43.6% +0.5 7
1987-05-23 Valerenga L 1-3 1151 1147 47.2% 26.5% 26.4% -13.5 5
1987-05-23 @ Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1147 1151 26.4% 26.5% 47.2% +13.4 4
1987-05-23 Mjondalen W 1-0 1208 1174 51.1% 25.7% 23.2% +4.7 5
1987-05-23 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1174 1208 23.2% 25.7% 51.1% -4.7 4
1987-05-23 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1138 1145 45.8% 26.7% 27.5% -0.7 4
1987-05-23 @ Molde D 1-1 1145 1138 27.5% 26.7% 45.8% +0.7 3
1987-05-23 Tromso W 4-2 1132 1143 45.3% 26.8% 28.0% +8.1 5
1987-05-23 @ Moss L 2-4 1143 1132 28.0% 26.8% 45.3% -8.1 4
1987-05-23 Bryne L 0-1 1165 1168 46.4% 26.6% 27.0% -8.1 5
1987-05-23 @ Start W 1-0 1168 1165 27.0% 26.6% 46.4% +8.1 8
1987-06-08 Brann L 1-2 1176 1155 49.5% 26.1% 24.5% -8.1 8
1987-06-08 @ Bryne W 2-1 1155 1176 24.5% 26.1% 49.5% +8.1 8
1987-06-08 Moss L 0-1 1145 1140 47.4% 26.4% 26.2% -8.3 3
1987-06-08 @ Kongsvinger W 1-0 1140 1145 26.2% 26.4% 47.4% +8.3 7
1987-06-08 Start W 2-1 1170 1157 48.4% 26.2% 25.3% +4.8 6
1987-06-08 @ Mjondalen L 1-2 1157 1170 25.3% 26.2% 48.4% -4.8 5
1987-06-08 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1180 1137 52.2% 25.4% 22.4% -1.1 8
1987-06-08 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1137 1180 22.4% 25.4% 52.2% +1.1 6
1987-06-08 Lillestrom W 1-0 1135 1213 35.9% 27.3% 36.7% +6.8 6
1987-06-08 @ Tromso L 0-1 1213 1135 36.7% 27.3% 35.9% -6.8 5
1987-06-08 Molde L 1-2 1161 1137 49.8% 26.0% 24.2% -8.1 4
1987-06-08 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1137 1161 24.2% 26.0% 49.8% +8.1 6
1987-06-13 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1163 1138 50.0% 25.9% 24.1% -1.1 9
1987-06-13 @ Brann D 0-0 1138 1163 24.1% 25.9% 50.0% +1.1 7
1987-06-13 Mjondalen W 3-0 1168 1174 45.9% 26.7% 27.5% +14.9 10
1987-06-13 @ Bryne L 0-3 1174 1168 27.5% 26.7% 45.9% -14.9 6
1987-06-13 Kongsvinger L 0-2 1206 1137 55.4% 24.6% 20.0% -17.7 5
1987-06-13 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1137 1206 20.0% 24.6% 55.4% +17.7 5
1987-06-13 Rosenborg D 1-1 1145 1178 42.2% 27.1% 30.7% -0.4 7
1987-06-13 @ Molde D 1-1 1178 1145 30.7% 27.1% 42.2% +0.4 9
1987-06-13 Valerenga W 1-0 1148 1153 46.2% 26.6% 27.2% +5.4 9
1987-06-13 @ Moss L 0-1 1153 1148 27.2% 26.6% 46.2% -5.4 4
1987-06-13 Tromso D 2-2 1152 1142 48.0% 26.3% 25.6% -0.6 6
1987-06-13 @ Start D 2-2 1142 1152 25.6% 26.3% 48.0% +0.6 7
1987-06-20 Molde L 0-2 1139 1145 46.0% 26.6% 27.3% -15.2 7
1987-06-20 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1145 1139 27.3% 26.6% 46.0% +15.2 9
1987-06-20 Start L 3-4 1155 1151 47.2% 26.5% 26.3% -7.2 5
1987-06-20 @ Kongsvinger W 4-3 1151 1155 26.3% 26.5% 47.2% +7.2 8
1987-06-20 Brann W 2-0 1159 1162 46.4% 26.6% 27.0% +10.1 8
1987-06-20 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1162 1159 27.0% 26.6% 46.4% -10.1 9
1987-06-20 Moss L 1-4 1179 1154 50.0% 25.9% 24.1% -19.9 9
1987-06-20 @ Rosenborg W 4-1 1154 1179 24.1% 25.9% 50.0% +19.9 11
1987-06-20 Bryne W 3-1 1143 1183 41.3% 27.2% 31.6% +9.9 9
1987-06-20 @ Tromso L 1-3 1183 1143 31.6% 27.2% 41.3% -9.9 10
1987-06-20 Lillestrom W 2-0 1147 1188 41.2% 27.2% 31.7% +11.5 6
1987-06-20 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1188 1147 31.7% 27.2% 41.2% -11.5 5
1987-06-27 Molde L 0-2 1152 1160 45.6% 26.7% 27.7% -15.1 9
1987-06-27 @ Brann W 2-0 1160 1152 27.7% 26.7% 45.6% +15.1 11
1987-06-27 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1173 1148 50.0% 25.9% 24.1% +11.2 12
1987-06-27 @ Bryne L 1-4 1148 1173 24.1% 25.9% 50.0% -11.2 5
1987-06-27 Rosenborg D 1-1 1177 1159 49.1% 26.1% 24.8% -0.9 6
1987-06-27 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1159 1177 24.8% 26.1% 49.1% +0.9 10
1987-06-27 Tromso W 3-0 1170 1153 49.0% 26.2% 24.9% +13.7 10
1987-06-27 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1153 1170 24.9% 26.2% 49.0% -13.7 9
1987-06-27 Hamarkameratene W 4-1 1174 1124 53.1% 25.2% 21.7% +10.2 13
1987-06-27 @ Moss L 1-4 1124 1174 21.7% 25.2% 53.1% -10.2 7
1987-06-27 Valerenga L 1-3 1158 1159 46.7% 26.5% 26.8% -13.3 8
1987-06-27 @ Start W 3-1 1159 1158 26.8% 26.5% 46.7% +13.3 8
1987-07-04 Moss W 3-1 1137 1184 40.3% 27.2% 32.5% +10.1 11
1987-07-04 @ Brann L 1-3 1184 1137 32.5% 27.2% 40.3% -10.1 13
1987-07-04 Start W 3-0 1114 1145 42.5% 27.1% 30.4% +16.2 9
1987-07-04 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1145 1114 30.4% 27.1% 42.5% -16.2 8
1987-07-04 Tromso D 0-0 1136 1139 46.4% 26.6% 27.0% -0.8 6
1987-07-04 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1139 1136 27.0% 26.6% 46.4% +0.8 10
1987-07-04 Lillestrom D 0-0 1175 1176 46.6% 26.6% 26.8% -0.8 12
1987-07-04 @ Molde D 0-0 1176 1175 26.8% 26.6% 46.6% +0.8 7
1987-07-04 Bryne D 2-2 1160 1184 43.5% 27.0% 29.5% -0.4 11
1987-07-04 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1184 1160 29.5% 27.0% 43.5% +0.4 13
1987-07-04 Mjondalen D 2-2 1172 1183 45.3% 26.8% 28.0% -0.5 9
1987-07-04 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1183 1172 28.0% 26.8% 45.3% +0.5 11
1987-07-11 Valerenga W 2-1 1184 1172 48.4% 26.3% 25.4% +4.8 15
1987-07-11 @ Bryne L 1-2 1172 1184 25.4% 26.3% 48.4% -4.8 9
1987-07-11 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1177 1130 52.7% 25.3% 22.0% +4.5 9
1987-07-11 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1130 1177 22.0% 25.3% 52.7% -4.5 9
1987-07-11 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1184 1136 52.9% 25.3% 21.8% -1.2 12
1987-07-11 @ Mjondalen D 1-1 1136 1184 21.8% 25.3% 52.9% +1.2 7
1987-07-11 Molde W 5-0 1174 1174 46.7% 26.5% 26.8% +23.5 15
1987-07-11 @ Moss L 0-5 1174 1174 26.8% 26.5% 46.7% -23.5 12
1987-07-11 Rosenborg L 1-3 1129 1159 42.6% 27.0% 30.3% -12.4 8
1987-07-11 @ Start W 3-1 1159 1129 30.3% 27.0% 42.6% +12.4 13
1987-07-11 Brann D 1-1 1140 1147 45.8% 26.7% 27.5% -0.7 11
1987-07-11 @ Tromso D 1-1 1147 1140 27.5% 26.7% 45.8% +0.7 12
1987-07-18 Hamarkameratene W 4-2 1189 1126 54.8% 24.8% 20.5% +6.1 17
1987-07-18 @ Bryne L 2-4 1126 1189 20.5% 24.8% 54.8% -6.1 9
1987-07-18 Brann W 2-0 1137 1148 45.3% 26.7% 28.0% +10.4 9
1987-07-18 @ Kongsvinger L 0-2 1148 1137 28.0% 26.7% 45.3% -10.4 12
1987-07-18 Moss L 1-2 1181 1197 44.6% 26.8% 28.6% -7.4 9
1987-07-18 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1197 1181 28.6% 26.8% 44.6% +7.4 17
1987-07-18 Rosenborg L 1-3 1182 1172 48.1% 26.3% 25.6% -13.7 12
1987-07-18 @ Mjondalen W 3-1 1172 1182 25.6% 26.3% 48.1% +13.7 15
1987-07-18 Molde L 0-2 1117 1151 42.1% 27.1% 30.8% -14.2 8
1987-07-18 @ Start W 2-0 1151 1117 30.8% 27.1% 42.1% +14.2 14
1987-07-18 Valerenga L 0-1 1139 1167 43.0% 27.0% 30.0% -7.7 11
1987-07-18 @ Tromso W 1-0 1167 1139 30.0% 27.0% 43.0% +7.6 11
1987-08-08 Lillestrom L 0-1 1137 1174 41.8% 27.1% 31.1% -7.5 12
1987-08-08 @ Brann W 1-0 1174 1137 31.1% 27.1% 41.8% +7.5 11
1987-08-08 Mjondalen D 1-1 1120 1169 40.0% 27.2% 32.8% -0.3 10
1987-08-08 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1169 1120 32.8% 27.2% 40.0% +0.3 13
1987-08-08 Bryne W 1-0 1165 1195 42.7% 27.0% 30.3% +5.9 16
1987-08-08 @ Molde L 0-1 1195 1165 30.3% 27.0% 42.7% -5.9 17
1987-08-08 Start W 5-1 1205 1102 59.3% 23.3% 17.4% +10.7 19
1987-08-08 @ Moss L 1-5 1102 1205 17.4% 23.3% 59.3% -10.7 8
1987-08-08 Tromso W 2-0 1185 1131 53.6% 25.1% 21.3% +8.2 17
1987-08-08 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1131 1185 21.3% 25.1% 53.6% -8.2 11
1987-08-08 Kongsvinger L 1-3 1175 1147 50.3% 25.9% 23.8% -14.2 11
1987-08-08 @ Valerenga W 3-1 1147 1175 23.8% 25.9% 50.3% +14.1 11
1987-08-15 Moss L 1-2 1189 1215 43.2% 27.0% 29.8% -7.2 17
1987-08-15 @ Bryne W 2-1 1215 1189 29.8% 27.0% 43.2% +7.2 21
1987-08-15 Rosenborg D 1-1 1161 1194 42.4% 27.1% 30.6% -0.4 12
1987-08-15 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1194 1161 30.6% 27.1% 42.4% +0.4 18
1987-08-15 Molde D 0-0 1169 1171 46.5% 26.6% 26.9% -0.8 14
1987-08-15 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1171 1169 26.9% 26.6% 46.5% +0.8 17
1987-08-15 Lillestrom D 0-0 1092 1181 34.3% 27.3% 38.4% +0.2 9
1987-08-15 @ Start D 0-0 1181 1092 38.4% 27.3% 34.3% -0.2 12
1987-08-15 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1123 1119 47.2% 26.5% 26.3% +9.9 13
1987-08-15 @ Tromso L 0-2 1119 1123 26.3% 26.5% 47.2% -9.9 10
1987-08-15 Brann L 0-2 1160 1130 50.7% 25.8% 23.5% -16.5 11
1987-08-15 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1130 1160 23.5% 25.8% 50.7% +16.5 14
1987-08-22 Start W 1-0 1146 1092 53.6% 25.1% 21.3% +4.4 16
1987-08-22 @ Brann L 0-1 1092 1146 21.3% 25.1% 53.6% -4.4 9
1987-08-22 Kongsvinger D 2-2 1109 1161 39.7% 27.3% 33.1% -0.2 11
1987-08-22 @ Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1161 1109 33.1% 27.3% 39.7% +0.2 13
1987-08-22 Bryne L 0-1 1181 1182 46.6% 26.6% 26.8% -8.2 12
1987-08-22 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1182 1181 26.8% 26.6% 46.6% +8.2 19
1987-08-22 Tromso W 2-1 1172 1133 51.7% 25.6% 22.7% +4.3 19
1987-08-22 @ Molde L 1-2 1133 1172 22.7% 25.6% 51.7% -4.3 13
1987-08-22 Mjondalen W 4-2 1223 1168 53.7% 25.1% 21.3% +6.3 23
1987-08-22 @ Moss L 2-4 1168 1223 21.3% 25.1% 53.7% -6.3 14
1987-08-22 Valerenga D 1-1 1194 1144 53.2% 25.2% 21.6% -1.2 19
1987-08-22 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1144 1194 21.6% 25.2% 53.2% +1.2 12
1987-08-29 Start L 0-1 1190 1088 59.3% 23.2% 17.4% -9.9 19
1987-08-29 @ Bryne W 1-0 1088 1190 17.4% 23.2% 59.3% +9.9 11
1987-08-29 Molde W 1-0 1161 1176 44.7% 26.8% 28.4% +5.6 15
1987-08-29 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1176 1161 28.4% 26.8% 44.7% -5.6 19
1987-08-29 Lillestrom L 1-3 1162 1173 45.3% 26.8% 28.0% -13.0 14
1987-08-29 @ Mjondalen W 3-1 1173 1162 28.0% 26.8% 45.3% +13.0 14
1987-08-29 Brann D 0-0 1193 1150 52.2% 25.4% 22.4% -1.3 20
1987-08-29 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1150 1193 22.4% 25.4% 52.2% +1.3 17
1987-08-29 Moss D 0-0 1129 1229 32.8% 27.2% 40.0% +0.3 14
1987-08-29 @ Tromso D 0-0 1229 1129 40.0% 27.2% 32.8% -0.3 24
1987-08-29 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1145 1109 51.4% 25.6% 23.0% +4.7 14
1987-08-29 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1109 1145 23.0% 25.6% 51.4% -4.7 11
1987-09-02 Mjondalen D 1-1 1152 1149 47.1% 26.5% 26.4% -0.8 18
1987-09-02 @ Brann D 1-1 1149 1152 26.4% 26.5% 47.1% +0.8 15
1987-09-05 Bryne L 1-3 1151 1180 42.8% 27.0% 30.2% -12.4 18
1987-09-05 @ Brann W 3-1 1180 1151 30.2% 27.0% 42.8% +12.4 21
1987-09-05 Rosenborg W 3-0 1105 1192 34.6% 27.3% 38.1% +19.1 13
1987-09-05 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1192 1105 38.1% 27.3% 34.6% -19.1 20
1987-09-05 Tromso W 3-0 1186 1129 54.0% 25.0% 21.0% +11.8 16
1987-09-05 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1129 1186 21.0% 25.0% 54.0% -11.8 14
1987-09-05 Valerenga W 4-0 1170 1150 49.5% 26.1% 24.5% +17.7 21
1987-09-05 @ Molde L 0-4 1150 1170 24.5% 26.1% 49.5% -17.6 14
1987-09-05 Kongsvinger L 1-3 1229 1167 54.6% 24.8% 20.6% -15.1 24
1987-09-05 @ Moss W 3-1 1167 1229 20.6% 24.8% 54.6% +15.1 17
1987-09-05 Mjondalen W 3-0 1097 1150 39.6% 27.3% 33.2% +17.3 13
1987-09-05 @ Start L 0-3 1150 1097 33.2% 27.3% 39.6% -17.3 15
1987-09-12 Brann W 4-1 1124 1138 44.8% 26.8% 28.4% +12.9 15
1987-09-12 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-4 1138 1124 28.4% 26.8% 44.8% -12.9 18
1987-09-12 Lillestrom W 1-0 1182 1198 44.6% 26.8% 28.6% +5.6 19
1987-09-12 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1198 1182 28.6% 26.8% 44.6% -5.6 16
1987-09-12 Bryne L 1-4 1132 1193 38.4% 27.3% 34.3% -16.2 15
1987-09-12 @ Mjondalen W 4-1 1193 1132 34.3% 27.3% 38.4% +16.2 23
1987-09-12 Molde L 0-2 1173 1188 44.6% 26.8% 28.5% -14.9 20
1987-09-12 @ Rosenborg W 2-0 1188 1173 28.5% 26.8% 44.6% +14.9 23
1987-09-12 Start D 1-1 1117 1115 47.1% 26.5% 26.5% -0.8 15
1987-09-12 @ Tromso D 1-1 1115 1117 26.5% 26.5% 47.1% +0.8 14
1987-09-12 Moss W 2-0 1132 1214 35.4% 27.3% 37.3% +13.0 16
1987-09-12 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1214 1132 37.3% 27.3% 35.4% -13.0 24
1987-09-16 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1203 1137 55.1% 24.6% 20.2% +3.9 25
1987-09-16 @ Molde L 1-2 1137 1203 20.2% 24.6% 55.1% -3.9 15
1987-09-16 Rosenborg D 1-1 1201 1158 52.3% 25.4% 22.3% -1.1 25
1987-09-16 @ Moss D 1-1 1158 1201 22.3% 25.4% 52.3% +1.1 21
1987-09-19 Valerenga D 0-0 1192 1145 52.8% 25.3% 21.9% -1.3 17
1987-09-19 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1145 1192 21.9% 25.3% 52.8% +1.3 17
1987-09-19 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1116 1187 36.8% 27.3% 35.9% -0.0 15
1987-09-19 @ Start D 0-0 1187 1116 35.9% 27.3% 36.8% +0.0 20
1987-09-23 Tromso L 0-1 1209 1116 58.2% 23.7% 18.2% -9.8 23
1987-09-23 @ Bryne W 1-0 1116 1209 18.2% 23.7% 58.2% +9.8 17
1987-09-26 Moss W 2-0 1133 1199 37.5% 27.3% 35.2% +12.4 17
1987-09-26 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1199 1133 35.2% 27.3% 37.5% -12.4 25
1987-09-26 Bryne W 4-0 1187 1199 45.2% 26.8% 28.1% +19.8 22
1987-09-26 @ Kongsvinger L 0-4 1199 1187 28.1% 26.8% 45.2% -19.8 23
1987-09-26 Brann W 2-1 1207 1126 56.9% 24.1% 19.0% +3.7 27
1987-09-26 @ Molde L 1-2 1126 1207 19.0% 24.1% 56.9% -3.7 18
1987-09-26 Lillestrom W 3-2 1159 1191 42.4% 27.1% 30.5% +5.3 23
1987-09-26 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1191 1159 30.5% 27.1% 42.4% -5.3 17
1987-09-26 Mjondalen W 2-1 1126 1116 48.0% 26.3% 25.6% +4.8 19
1987-09-26 @ Tromso L 1-2 1116 1126 25.6% 26.3% 48.0% -4.8 15
1987-09-26 Start W 4-0 1146 1115 50.7% 25.8% 23.5% +17.0 19
1987-09-26 @ Valerenga L 0-4 1115 1146 23.5% 25.8% 50.7% -17.0 15
1987-10-03 Rosenborg L 0-2 1179 1164 48.8% 26.2% 25.1% -15.9 23
1987-10-03 @ Bryne W 2-0 1164 1179 25.1% 26.2% 48.8% +15.9 25
1987-10-03 Molde W 2-1 1185 1211 43.4% 27.0% 29.7% +5.5 19
1987-10-03 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1211 1185 29.7% 27.0% 43.4% -5.4 27
1987-10-03 Valerenga W 3-0 1111 1163 39.6% 27.3% 33.2% +17.3 17
1987-10-03 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1163 1111 33.2% 27.3% 39.6% -17.3 19
1987-10-03 Brann W 3-2 1187 1122 55.0% 24.7% 20.3% +3.7 27
1987-10-03 @ Moss L 2-3 1122 1187 20.3% 24.7% 55.0% -3.7 18
1987-10-03 Hamarkameratene W 6-1 1098 1145 40.4% 27.2% 32.4% +22.6 17
1987-10-03 @ Start L 1-6 1145 1098 32.4% 27.2% 40.4% -22.6 17
1987-10-03 Kongsvinger L 1-3 1131 1207 36.1% 27.3% 36.5% -11.0 19
1987-10-03 @ Tromso W 3-1 1207 1131 36.5% 27.3% 36.1% +11.0 24
1987-10-10 Tromso W 5-0 1118 1120 46.5% 26.6% 26.9% +23.6 20
1987-10-10 @ Brann L 0-5 1120 1118 26.9% 26.6% 46.5% -23.6 19
1987-10-10 Lillestrom W 2-1 1122 1191 37.2% 27.3% 35.4% +6.2 19
1987-10-10 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1191 1122 35.4% 27.3% 37.2% -6.2 19
1987-10-10 Mjondalen W 1-0 1218 1129 57.8% 23.8% 18.4% +3.8 26
1987-10-10 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1129 1218 18.4% 23.8% 57.8% -3.8 17
1987-10-10 Moss L 0-2 1205 1191 48.6% 26.2% 25.2% -15.9 27
1987-10-10 @ Molde W 2-0 1191 1205 25.2% 26.2% 48.6% +15.9 29
1987-10-10 Start W 4-1 1180 1121 54.2% 24.9% 20.9% +9.9 27
1987-10-10 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1121 1180 20.9% 24.9% 54.2% -9.9 17
1987-10-10 Bryne W 1-0 1146 1163 44.4% 26.9% 28.7% +5.6 21
1987-10-10 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1163 1146 28.7% 26.9% 44.4% -5.6 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1987-08-29 17.42% Start 1088 1 @ Bryne 1190 0
2 1987-09-23 18.16% Tromso 1116 1 @ Bryne 1209 0
3 1987-06-13 20.03% Kongsvinger 1137 2 @ Lillestrom 1206 0
4 1987-09-05 20.61% Kongsvinger 1167 3 @ Moss 1229 1
5 1987-08-15 23.49% Brann 1130 2 @ Valerenga 1160 0
6 1987-08-08 23.83% Kongsvinger 1147 3 @ Valerenga 1175 1
7 1987-06-20 24.07% Moss 1154 4 @ Rosenborg 1179 1
8 1987-06-08 24.19% Molde 1137 2 @ Valerenga 1161 1
9 1987-06-08 24.49% Brann 1155 2 @ Bryne 1176 1
10 1987-05-16 24.92% Bryne 1145 2 @ Moss 1162 0
11 1987-10-03 25.06% Rosenborg 1164 2 @ Bryne 1179 0
12 1987-10-10 25.16% Moss 1191 2 @ Molde 1205 0
13 1987-05-20 25.54% Hamarkameratene 1142 1 @ Kongsvinger 1153 0
14 1987-07-18 25.55% Rosenborg 1172 3 @ Mjondalen 1182 1
15 1987-06-08 26.15% Moss 1140 1 @ Kongsvinger 1145 0
16 1987-06-20 26.33% Start 1151 4 @ Kongsvinger 1155 3
17 1987-05-23 26.36% Valerenga 1147 3 @ Hamarkameratene 1151 1
18 1987-06-27 26.76% Valerenga 1159 3 @ Start 1158 1
19 1987-08-22 26.83% Bryne 1182 1 @ Lillestrom 1181 0
20 1987-05-23 27.04% Bryne 1168 1 @ Start 1165 0
21 1987-06-20 27.33% Molde 1145 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1139 0
22 1987-06-27 27.66% Molde 1160 2 @ Brann 1152 0
23 1987-08-29 27.98% Lillestrom 1173 3 @ Mjondalen 1162 1
24 1987-09-12 28.53% Molde 1188 2 @ Rosenborg 1173 0
25 1987-07-18 28.60% Moss 1197 2 @ Lillestrom 1181 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1987-10-10 23.58 @ Brann 5 1118 46.50% Tromso 0 1120 26.93% 26.57%
2 1987-07-11 23.46 @ Moss 5 1174 46.68% Molde 0 1174 26.77% 26.54%
3 1987-10-03 22.63 @ Start 6 1098 40.35% Hamarkameratene 1 1145 32.44% 27.21%
4 1987-06-20 19.93 Moss 4 1154 24.07% @ Rosenborg 1 1179 49.99% 25.94%
5 1987-09-26 19.79 @ Kongsvinger 4 1187 45.17% Bryne 0 1199 28.07% 26.76%
6 1987-09-05 19.11 @ Hamarkameratene 3 1105 34.61% Rosenborg 0 1192 38.09% 27.30%
7 1987-06-13 17.69 Kongsvinger 2 1137 20.03% @ Lillestrom 0 1206 55.41% 24.56%
8 1987-09-05 17.65 @ Molde 4 1170 49.45% Valerenga 0 1150 24.50% 26.05%
9 1987-09-05 17.26 @ Start 3 1097 39.57% Mjondalen 0 1150 33.18% 27.25%
10 1987-10-03 17.26 @ Mjondalen 3 1111 39.59% Valerenga 0 1163 33.16% 27.25%
11 1987-09-26 17.00 @ Valerenga 4 1146 50.75% Start 0 1115 23.47% 25.78%
12 1987-08-15 16.46 Brann 2 1130 23.49% @ Valerenga 0 1160 50.73% 25.78%
13 1987-09-12 16.22 Bryne 4 1193 34.29% @ Mjondalen 1 1132 38.42% 27.29%
14 1987-07-04 16.16 @ Hamarkameratene 3 1114 42.51% Start 0 1145 30.43% 27.05%
15 1987-05-16 15.98 Bryne 2 1145 24.92% @ Moss 0 1162 48.93% 26.16%
16 1987-10-03 15.94 Rosenborg 2 1164 25.06% @ Bryne 0 1179 48.75% 26.19%
17 1987-10-10 15.91 Moss 2 1191 25.16% @ Molde 0 1205 48.62% 26.21%
18 1987-05-02 15.31 @ Rosenborg 3 1157 44.74% Mjondalen 0 1172 28.45% 26.82%
19 1987-06-20 15.23 Molde 2 1145 27.33% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1139 46.03% 26.64%
20 1987-09-05 15.13 Kongsvinger 3 1167 20.61% @ Moss 1 1229 54.59% 24.80%
21 1987-06-27 15.12 Molde 2 1160 27.66% @ Brann 0 1152 45.65% 26.70%
22 1987-06-13 14.88 @ Bryne 3 1168 45.86% Mjondalen 0 1174 27.47% 26.67%
23 1987-09-12 14.86 Molde 2 1188 28.53% @ Rosenborg 0 1173 44.64% 26.83%
24 1987-05-16 14.21 @ Lillestrom 5 1200 50.64% Start 1 1170 23.56% 25.80%
25 1987-07-18 14.19 Molde 2 1151 30.83% @ Start 0 1117 42.08% 27.09%