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1986 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Lillestrom

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Kongsvinger

5.93 points above expected

27 points · 21.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Strommen

11.55 points below expected

8 points · 19.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lillestrom 22 16 1 5 33 40 17 +23 27.47 +5.53
2 Mjondalen 22 11 5 6 27 36 25 +11 25.77 +1.23
3 Kongsvinger 22 11 5 6 27 27 27 0 21.07 +5.93
4 Start 22 9 6 7 24 31 22 +9 23.53 +0.47
5 Hamarkameratene 22 8 8 6 24 34 30 +4 20.11 +3.89
6 Bryne 22 11 1 10 23 32 31 +1 22.99 +0.01
7 Valerenga 22 9 4 9 22 29 28 +1 23.78 -1.78
8 Rosenborg 22 8 5 9 21 28 28 0 24.33 -3.33
9 Molde 22 7 6 9 20 26 33 -7 17.90 +2.10
10 Tromso 22 6 6 10 18 23 32 -9 20.84 -2.84
11 Viking 22 5 7 10 17 23 33 -10 16.66 +0.34
12 Strommen 22 2 4 16 8 23 46 -23 19.55 -11.55

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lillestrom 1348 33 27.47 +5.53 95.1% 12 21 25 28 30 33 39
Mjondalen 1242 27 25.77 +1.23 67.0% 11 19 23 26 28 32 38
Valerenga 1209 22 23.78 -1.78 36.8% 6 17 21 24 26 30 39
Start 1208 24 23.53 +0.47 58.9% 9 17 21 24 26 30 37
Kongsvinger 1202 27 21.07 +5.93 94.7% 8 15 18 21 24 28 35
Rosenborg 1195 21 24.33 -3.33 23.4% 10 18 22 24 27 31 39
Hamarkameratene 1158 24 20.11 +3.89 86.7% 6 14 17 20 23 27 38
Bryne 1150 23 22.99 +0.01 55.0% 8 17 20 23 26 29 37
Tromso 1142 18 20.84 -2.84 27.4% 8 14 18 21 23 27 34
Molde 1141 20 17.90 +2.10 75.3% 5 12 15 18 20 24 32
Viking 1110 17 16.66 +0.34 59.4% 3 10 14 17 19 23 32
Strommen 1056 8 19.55 -11.55 0.2% 6 13 17 20 22 26 34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRY HAM KON LIL MJO MOL ROS STA STR TRO VAL VIK
Bryne —
0-0-2
3.07
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-2
2.33
0-0-2
2.57
1-0-1
3.34
1-0-1
2.67
2-0-0
2.66
2-0-0
3.14
2-0-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.73
2-0-0
3.41
Hamarkameratene
2-0-0
2.46
 —
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
1.88
1-1-0
1.97
0-2-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
2.32
2-0-0
2.76
1-1-0
2.62
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
3.42
Kongsvinger
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
2.85
 —
1-0-1
1.95
0-1-1
2.25
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
2.48
1-1-0
2.33
1-0-1
3.12
0-1-1
2.71
2-0-0
2.22
1-1-0
3.49
Lillestrom
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.67
1-0-1
3.60
 —
1-0-1
2.99
2-0-0
4.02
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.23
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-1
3.66
2-0-0
3.16
2-0-0
4.23
Mjondalen
2-0-0
2.96
0-1-1
3.57
1-1-0
3.29
1-0-1
2.55
 —
1-1-0
3.86
0-0-2
2.92
0-1-1
3.12
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.12
2-0-0
2.85
0-1-1
3.90
Molde
1-0-1
2.20
0-2-0
2.61
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
1.54
0-1-1
1.69
 —
1-1-0
2.00
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.39
1-0-1
1.91
2-0-0
2.74
Rosenborg
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
3.28
0-0-2
3.06
0-1-1
2.38
2-0-0
2.62
0-1-1
3.55
 —
1-0-1
2.93
1-1-0
3.27
1-0-1
3.33
0-0-2
3.12
1-1-0
3.53
Start
0-0-2
2.88
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
3.21
1-0-1
2.32
1-1-0
2.42
2-0-0
3.17
1-0-1
2.60
 —
1-1-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.16
0-0-2
2.66
1-1-0
3.73
Strommen
0-0-2
2.40
0-0-2
2.78
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-2
1.72
0-0-2
1.74
1-0-1
2.98
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
2.17
 —
0-1-1
2.71
0-0-2
2.47
0-1-1
3.15
Tromso
0-0-2
2.41
0-1-1
2.92
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
2.42
0-1-1
3.15
1-0-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.83
 —
1-1-0
2.41
1-0-1
3.25
Valerenga
1-1-0
2.80
1-1-0
3.18
0-0-2
3.32
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
2.69
1-0-1
3.63
2-0-0
2.42
2-0-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.07
0-1-1
3.13
 —
0-1-1
3.65
Viking
0-0-2
2.13
1-1-0
2.11
0-1-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.34
1-1-0
1.65
0-0-2
2.80
0-1-1
2.02
0-1-1
1.82
1-1-0
2.39
1-0-1
2.29
1-1-0
1.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.68 +9.4
Allowed 0.87 -8.2
Differential 0.90 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%10.23%7.20%3.03%1.14%—28.41%
110.23%12.12%6.06%4.17%2.65%—35.23%
27.20%6.06%3.03%2.27%0.38%0.38%19.32%
33.03%4.17%2.27%—0.76%0.38%10.61%
41.14%2.65%0.38%0.76%—0.38%5.30%
5+——0.38%0.38%0.38%—1.14%
Total28.41%35.23%19.32%10.61%5.30%1.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.70
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%13.64%4.55%——36.36%
113.64%——4.55%——18.18%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%—22.73%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%40.91%13.64%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.41 +0.05
SD 1.44 1.18 1.81
CV 0.99 0.84 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%————13.64%
19.09%22.73%4.55%———36.36%
218.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
3——4.55%——4.55%9.09%
4—————4.55%4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%36.36%18.18%4.55%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.36 +0.18
SD 1.01 1.59 1.22
CV 0.65 1.17 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%———4.55%—18.18%
122.73%9.09%4.55%—13.64%—50.00%
24.55%13.64%—4.55%——22.73%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total45.45%27.27%4.55%4.55%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 0.87 1.54 1.83
CV 0.71 1.26 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%13.64%———18.18%
118.18%4.55%4.55%———27.27%
29.09%4.55%————13.64%
318.18%13.64%4.55%———36.36%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total45.45%31.82%22.73%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.77 +1.05
SD 1.26 0.81 1.70
CV 0.69 1.05 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
19.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
213.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
3—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
44.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
5+———————
Total40.91%27.27%13.64%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.14 +0.50
SD 1.36 1.25 1.74
CV 0.83 1.10 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
14.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
213.64%—9.09%———22.73%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%27.27%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.50 -0.32
SD 1.05 1.22 1.81
CV 0.89 0.82 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%——27.27%
19.09%18.18%9.09%9.09%——45.45%
24.55%—————4.55%
39.09%—9.09%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%31.82%27.27%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.27 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.03 1.75
CV 0.94 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%22.73%————36.36%
19.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
29.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
3———————
44.55%——4.55%——9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total36.36%36.36%18.18%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.00 +0.41
SD 1.59 0.98 1.56
CV 1.13 0.98 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%—9.09%4.55%—31.82%
1—13.64%18.18%18.18%4.55%—54.55%
2———————
3————4.55%—4.55%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+———————
Total4.55%36.36%18.18%27.27%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.09 -1.05
SD 1.17 1.19 1.70
CV 1.12 0.57 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%18.18%———31.82%
14.55%22.73%9.09%———36.36%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%—4.55%27.27%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%40.91%31.82%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.45 -0.41
SD 0.90 1.30 1.47
CV 0.86 0.89 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%22.73%—4.55%——31.82%
19.09%13.64%4.55%—4.55%—31.82%
2—13.64%—4.55%——18.18%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
4———————
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total18.18%59.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.27 +0.05
SD 1.32 1.08 1.56
CV 1.00 0.85 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%18.18%4.55%——36.36%
113.64%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%—50.00%
2——4.55%———4.55%
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+————4.55%—4.55%
Total27.27%22.73%31.82%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.50 -0.45
SD 1.43 1.26 1.68
CV 1.37 0.84 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kongsvinger 27 21.07 +5.93
2 Lillestrom 33 27.47 +5.53
3 Hamarkameratene 24 20.11 +3.89
4 Molde 20 17.90 +2.10
5 Mjondalen 27 25.77 +1.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Strommen 8 19.55 -11.55
2 Rosenborg 21 24.33 -3.33
3 Tromso 18 20.84 -2.84
4 Valerenga 22 23.78 -1.78
5 Bryne 23 22.99 +0.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 11 May 19 – Aug 31 1 in 3,116
2 Molde 3 Sep 7 – Sep 28 1 in 82
3 Viking 3 Oct 5 – Oct 19 1 in 55
4 Start 4 May 4 – May 16 1 in 32
5 Kongsvinger 3 May 16 – Jun 1 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strommen 5 Apr 27 – May 16 1 in 165
2 Bryne 4 Sep 27 – Oct 19 1 in 34
3 Tromso 3 Jun 1 – Jun 14 1 in 24
4 Viking 4 May 3 – May 16 1 in 23
5 Start 2 May 19 – May 22 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Molde 7 Aug 24 – Oct 12 1 in 127
2 Lillestrom 14 May 19 – Oct 5 1 in 71
3 Viking 4 Sep 28 – Oct 19 1 in 14
4 Kongsvinger 6 Sep 7 – Oct 19 1 in 13
5 Valerenga 5 May 11 – Jun 8 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Start 8 Aug 17 – Oct 12 1 in 67
2 Tromso 7 May 11 – Jun 21 1 in 38
3 Strommen 9 Aug 17 – Oct 19 1 in 30
4 Viking 11 Apr 27 – Aug 4 1 in 27
5 Mjondalen 4 Sep 14 – Oct 12 1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Lillestrom39.65%20.72%14.01%8.68%5.93%4.37%2.95%1.71%1.11%0.55%0.25%0.07%
Mjondalen20.27%19.83%15.69%12.16%9.29%7.51%5.44%3.68%2.82%1.78%1.03%0.50%
Kongsvinger2.40%4.78%6.31%7.83%8.81%10.20%11.33%11.88%11.85%10.22%8.44%5.95%
Start8.33%11.68%13.13%12.82%12.26%10.33%8.55%7.55%6.17%4.28%3.28%1.62%
Hamarkameratene1.45%2.93%4.72%6.00%8.30%9.35%11.13%11.62%12.38%12.62%11.10%8.40%
Bryne6.06%9.40%10.09%11.54%11.92%11.62%9.83%9.34%7.46%6.38%4.22%2.14%
Valerenga8.27%11.35%12.12%12.87%12.23%11.13%9.48%7.78%6.27%4.39%2.73%1.38%
Rosenborg10.68%12.75%13.39%13.75%11.24%9.83%9.21%6.58%5.16%4.03%2.20%1.18%
Molde0.26%0.86%1.40%2.56%3.78%4.92%7.14%9.28%11.91%15.94%20.02%21.93%
Tromso1.78%3.54%5.28%6.36%8.23%10.04%10.97%13.04%11.70%11.40%10.26%7.40%
Viking0.11%0.35%0.70%1.23%2.25%3.59%4.52%6.29%10.50%14.28%20.53%35.65%
Strommen0.74%1.81%3.16%4.20%5.76%7.11%9.45%11.25%12.67%14.13%15.94%13.78%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.91%
Clear Edge
46.97%21.97%31.06%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 55.75 Elo pts.
215 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.42 goals
Neutral
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Lillestrom, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.27/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.1 * Some Luck: 3.1 to 4.65 * Lucky: 4.65 to 6.19 * Wild Swing: 6.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.84 * Close: 1.84 to 2.76 * Off: 2.76 to 3.68 * Way Off: 3.68 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.50 points
Some Luck
03.8710
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
02.305
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.10%
Lillestrom
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.21%
Strommen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.32
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.36
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.19
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.25
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.56
Overconfident
0.4284831.001.57152
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.094
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Lillestrom 99.13% 0.55% 0.32%
Mjondalen 96.69% 1.78% 1.53%
Rosenborg 92.59% 4.03% 3.38%
Valerenga 91.50% 4.39% 4.11%
Start 90.82% 4.28% 4.90%
Bryne 87.26% 6.38% 6.36%
Kongsvinger 75.39% 10.22% 14.39%
Tromso 70.94% 11.40% 17.66%
Hamarkameratene 67.88% 12.62% 19.50%
Strommen 56.15% 14.13% 29.72%
Molde 42.11% 15.94% 41.95%
Viking 29.54% 14.28% 56.18%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1986-04-27 Molde D 1-1 1088 1145 42.7% 23.3% 34.0% -0.4 1
1986-04-27 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1145 1088 34.0% 23.3% 42.7% +0.4 1
1986-04-27 Lillestrom W 2-0 1215 1265 43.7% 23.3% 33.0% +16.1 2
1986-04-27 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1265 1215 33.0% 23.3% 43.7% -16.1 0
1986-04-27 Valerenga L 1-3 1206 1217 48.9% 23.2% 27.9% -19.2 0
1986-04-27 @ Strommen W 3-1 1217 1206 27.9% 23.2% 48.9% +19.2 2
1986-04-27 Rosenborg D 0-0 1130 1231 36.5% 23.2% 40.2% +0.2 1
1986-04-27 @ Viking D 0-0 1231 1130 40.2% 23.2% 36.5% -0.2 1
1986-05-01 Tromso D 1-1 1151 1192 44.9% 23.3% 31.8% -0.7 1
1986-05-01 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1192 1151 31.8% 23.3% 44.9% +0.7 1
1986-05-03 Viking W 2-0 1193 1130 57.1% 22.9% 20.0% +10.7 3
1986-05-03 @ Tromso L 0-2 1130 1193 20.0% 22.9% 57.1% -10.7 1
1986-05-04 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1170 1151 52.4% 23.1% 24.5% +15.5 2
1986-05-04 @ Bryne L 1-4 1151 1170 24.5% 23.1% 52.4% -15.5 1
1986-05-04 Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1248 1087 65.6% 22.0% 12.4% -29.2 0
1986-05-04 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1087 1248 12.4% 22.0% 65.6% +29.2 3
1986-05-04 Start L 0-4 1146 1152 49.3% 23.2% 27.4% -42.3 1
1986-05-04 @ Molde W 4-0 1152 1146 27.4% 23.2% 49.3% +42.3 2
1986-05-05 Strommen W 3-0 1231 1187 55.1% 23.0% 21.9% +16.8 3
1986-05-05 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1187 1231 21.9% 23.0% 55.1% -16.8 0
1986-05-05 Mjondalen L 0-1 1236 1231 50.7% 23.2% 26.1% -12.1 2
1986-05-05 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1231 1236 26.1% 23.2% 50.7% +12.1 4
1986-05-07 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1195 1117 58.6% 22.8% 18.6% +5.3 4
1986-05-07 @ Start L 0-1 1117 1195 18.6% 22.8% 58.6% -5.3 3
1986-05-07 Tromso L 1-2 1170 1203 46.0% 23.3% 30.7% -10.5 0
1986-05-07 @ Strommen W 2-1 1203 1170 30.7% 23.3% 46.0% +10.5 5
1986-05-08 Molde D 0-0 1135 1103 53.8% 23.1% 23.1% -1.8 2
1986-05-08 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1103 1135 23.1% 23.1% 53.8% +1.8 2
1986-05-08 Valerenga W 3-0 1219 1224 49.6% 23.2% 27.2% +20.1 2
1986-05-08 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1224 1219 27.2% 23.2% 49.6% -20.1 2
1986-05-08 Rosenborg L 0-2 1243 1248 49.5% 23.2% 27.2% -22.4 4
1986-05-08 @ Mjondalen W 2-0 1248 1243 27.2% 23.2% 49.5% +22.4 5
1986-05-08 Bryne L 1-2 1119 1185 41.5% 23.3% 35.2% -9.6 1
1986-05-08 @ Viking W 2-1 1185 1119 35.2% 23.3% 41.5% +9.6 4
1986-05-11 Strommen W 4-1 1195 1160 54.2% 23.1% 22.8% +14.6 6
1986-05-11 @ Bryne L 1-4 1160 1195 22.8% 23.1% 54.2% -14.6 0
1986-05-11 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1111 1133 47.4% 23.3% 29.3% +7.3 5
1986-05-11 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1133 1111 29.3% 23.3% 47.4% -7.3 2
1986-05-11 Viking W 2-0 1105 1110 49.6% 23.2% 27.2% +13.8 4
1986-05-11 @ Molde L 0-2 1110 1105 27.2% 23.2% 49.6% -13.8 1
1986-05-11 Valerenga L 1-2 1270 1204 57.5% 22.9% 19.7% -12.8 5
1986-05-11 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1204 1270 19.7% 22.9% 57.5% +12.8 4
1986-05-11 Lillestrom W 2-0 1200 1239 45.1% 23.3% 31.6% +15.6 6
1986-05-11 @ Start L 0-2 1239 1200 31.6% 23.3% 45.1% -15.6 2
1986-05-11 Mjondalen L 1-2 1214 1220 49.3% 23.2% 27.4% -11.2 5
1986-05-11 @ Tromso W 2-1 1220 1214 27.4% 23.2% 49.3% +11.1 6
1986-05-16 Lillestrom W 1-0 1126 1224 37.0% 23.3% 39.7% +9.9 4
1986-05-16 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1224 1126 39.7% 23.3% 37.0% -9.9 2
1986-05-16 Tromso W 3-2 1257 1203 56.2% 22.9% 20.8% +5.2 7
1986-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1203 1257 20.8% 22.9% 56.2% -5.2 5
1986-05-16 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1145 1119 53.2% 23.1% 23.6% -12.7 0
1986-05-16 @ Strommen W 1-0 1119 1145 23.6% 23.1% 53.2% +12.7 7
1986-05-16 Bryne D 0-0 1216 1210 50.9% 23.2% 25.9% -1.5 5
1986-05-16 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1210 1216 25.9% 23.2% 50.9% +1.5 7
1986-05-16 Start L 1-2 1096 1215 34.0% 23.2% 42.8% -8.2 1
1986-05-16 @ Viking W 2-1 1215 1096 42.8% 23.2% 34.0% +8.2 8
1986-05-19 Mjondalen L 0-1 1211 1232 47.6% 23.3% 29.1% -11.5 7
1986-05-19 @ Bryne W 1-0 1232 1211 29.1% 23.3% 47.6% +11.5 8
1986-05-19 Viking D 1-1 1131 1088 55.1% 23.0% 21.9% -1.8 8
1986-05-19 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1088 1131 21.9% 23.0% 55.1% +1.8 2
1986-05-19 Rosenborg W 1-0 1214 1262 43.9% 23.3% 32.8% +8.5 4
1986-05-19 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1262 1214 32.8% 23.3% 43.9% -8.5 7
1986-05-19 Strommen L 1-4 1119 1133 48.4% 23.2% 28.3% -26.9 4
1986-05-19 @ Molde W 4-1 1133 1119 28.3% 23.2% 48.4% +26.9 2
1986-05-19 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1224 1136 59.6% 22.7% 17.7% -14.1 8
1986-05-19 @ Start W 1-0 1136 1224 17.7% 22.7% 59.6% +14.1 6
1986-05-19 Valerenga D 1-1 1198 1215 48.0% 23.2% 28.8% -1.0 6
1986-05-19 @ Tromso D 1-1 1215 1198 28.8% 23.2% 48.0% +1.0 6
1986-05-22 Bryne L 0-1 1210 1200 51.3% 23.2% 25.5% -12.2 8
1986-05-22 @ Start W 1-0 1200 1210 25.5% 23.2% 51.3% +12.2 9
1986-05-31 Valerenga L 1-2 1092 1216 33.5% 23.2% 43.4% -8.1 4
1986-05-31 @ Molde W 2-1 1216 1092 43.4% 23.2% 33.5% +8.1 8
1986-06-01 Rosenborg W 3-1 1212 1254 44.8% 23.3% 31.9% +13.6 11
1986-06-01 @ Bryne L 1-3 1254 1212 31.9% 23.3% 44.8% -13.6 7
1986-06-01 Mjondalen W 3-2 1130 1243 34.8% 23.2% 41.9% +9.2 10
1986-06-01 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-3 1243 1130 41.9% 23.2% 34.8% -9.2 8
1986-06-01 Viking W 1-0 1150 1089 56.9% 22.9% 20.2% +5.7 8
1986-06-01 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1089 1150 20.2% 22.9% 56.9% -5.7 2
1986-06-01 Tromso W 2-0 1222 1197 53.1% 23.1% 23.8% +12.4 6
1986-06-01 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1197 1222 23.8% 23.1% 53.1% -12.4 6
1986-06-01 Strommen W 2-1 1197 1160 54.5% 23.0% 22.5% +5.9 10
1986-06-01 @ Start L 1-2 1160 1197 22.5% 23.0% 54.5% -5.9 2
1986-06-07 Lillestrom L 0-2 1226 1235 49.0% 23.2% 27.8% -22.2 11
1986-06-07 @ Bryne W 2-0 1235 1226 27.8% 23.2% 49.0% +22.2 8
1986-06-07 Kongsvinger W 4-0 1234 1156 58.6% 22.8% 18.6% +19.0 10
1986-06-07 @ Mjondalen L 0-4 1156 1234 18.6% 22.8% 58.6% -19.0 8
1986-06-07 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1240 1139 60.8% 22.6% 16.6% +4.8 9
1986-06-07 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1139 1240 16.6% 22.6% 60.8% -4.8 10
1986-06-07 Viking D 0-0 1154 1084 57.8% 22.9% 19.3% -2.4 3
1986-06-07 @ Strommen D 0-0 1084 1154 19.3% 22.9% 57.8% +2.4 3
1986-06-07 Molde L 0-2 1184 1084 60.7% 22.6% 16.7% -27.1 6
1986-06-07 @ Tromso W 2-0 1084 1184 16.7% 22.6% 60.7% +27.1 6
1986-06-08 Start W 1-0 1224 1203 52.6% 23.1% 24.3% +6.7 10
1986-06-08 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1203 1224 24.3% 23.1% 52.6% -6.7 10
1986-06-14 Tromso W 2-0 1134 1157 47.2% 23.3% 29.5% +14.8 12
1986-06-14 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1157 1134 29.5% 23.3% 47.2% -14.8 6
1986-06-14 Valerenga W 2-1 1137 1231 37.5% 23.3% 39.2% +9.2 10
1986-06-14 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1231 1137 39.2% 23.3% 37.5% -9.2 10
1986-06-14 Bryne L 1-3 1111 1203 37.8% 23.3% 38.9% -15.5 6
1986-06-14 @ Molde W 3-1 1203 1111 38.9% 23.3% 37.8% +15.5 13
1986-06-14 Mjondalen D 1-1 1086 1253 28.0% 23.0% 49.0% +1.1 4
1986-06-14 @ Viking D 1-1 1253 1086 49.0% 23.0% 28.0% -1.1 11
1986-06-18 Molde W 2-0 1252 1096 65.2% 22.1% 12.7% +7.1 13
1986-06-18 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1096 1252 12.7% 22.1% 65.2% -7.1 6
1986-06-18 Rosenborg W 2-0 1197 1245 43.9% 23.3% 32.8% +16.0 12
1986-06-18 @ Start L 0-2 1245 1197 32.8% 23.3% 43.9% -16.0 9
1986-06-19 Lillestrom L 1-2 1151 1257 35.9% 23.2% 40.8% -8.6 3
1986-06-19 @ Strommen W 2-1 1257 1151 40.8% 23.2% 35.9% +8.6 10
1986-06-21 Start D 0-0 1142 1213 40.9% 23.3% 35.8% -0.3 7
1986-06-21 @ Tromso D 0-0 1213 1142 35.8% 23.3% 40.9% +0.3 13
1986-06-22 Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1219 1149 57.8% 22.9% 19.3% -25.8 13
1986-06-22 @ Bryne W 2-0 1149 1219 19.3% 22.9% 57.8% +25.8 14
1986-06-22 Strommen W 3-1 1259 1143 62.1% 22.5% 15.5% +7.4 15
1986-06-22 @ Mjondalen L 1-3 1143 1259 15.5% 22.5% 62.1% -7.4 3
1986-06-22 Viking D 1-1 1221 1087 63.6% 22.3% 14.1% -2.8 11
1986-06-22 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1087 1221 14.1% 22.3% 63.6% +2.8 5
1986-06-24 Kongsvinger L 1-3 1229 1146 59.1% 22.8% 18.1% -22.8 9
1986-06-24 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1146 1229 18.1% 22.8% 59.1% +22.8 12
1986-06-26 Molde W 3-0 1265 1088 66.7% 21.8% 11.4% +9.4 12
1986-06-26 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1088 1265 11.4% 21.8% 66.7% -9.4 6
1986-08-03 Start W 1-0 1193 1213 47.7% 23.3% 29.1% +7.7 15
1986-08-03 @ Bryne L 0-1 1213 1193 29.1% 23.3% 47.7% -7.7 13
1986-08-03 Mjondalen W 3-1 1275 1266 51.2% 23.2% 25.7% +11.4 14
1986-08-03 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1266 1275 25.7% 23.2% 51.2% -11.4 15
1986-08-03 Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1079 1175 37.4% 23.3% 39.4% +0.1 7
1986-08-03 @ Molde D 2-2 1175 1079 39.4% 23.3% 37.4% -0.1 15
1986-08-03 Kongsvinger W 3-2 1142 1169 46.8% 23.3% 29.9% +7.1 9
1986-08-03 @ Tromso L 2-3 1169 1142 29.9% 23.3% 46.8% -7.1 12
1986-08-04 Viking W 4-1 1206 1090 62.1% 22.5% 15.4% +10.4 11
1986-08-04 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1090 1206 15.4% 22.5% 62.1% -10.4 5
1986-08-06 Strommen W 3-1 1219 1135 59.1% 22.8% 18.1% +8.5 13
1986-08-06 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1135 1219 18.1% 22.8% 59.1% -8.5 3
1986-08-09 Tromso W 1-0 1079 1149 41.0% 23.3% 35.7% +9.1 7
1986-08-09 @ Viking L 0-1 1149 1079 35.7% 23.3% 41.0% -9.1 9
1986-08-10 Lillestrom L 2-3 1174 1286 35.1% 23.2% 41.7% -8.0 15
1986-08-10 @ Hamarkameratene W 3-2 1286 1174 41.7% 23.2% 35.1% +8.0 16
1986-08-10 Bryne W 1-0 1162 1201 45.1% 23.3% 31.6% +8.2 14
1986-08-10 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1201 1162 31.6% 23.3% 45.1% -8.2 15
1986-08-10 Valerenga W 4-1 1255 1227 53.3% 23.1% 23.5% +15.0 17
1986-08-10 @ Mjondalen L 1-4 1227 1255 23.5% 23.1% 53.3% -15.0 13
1986-08-10 Molde W 1-0 1205 1079 62.9% 22.4% 14.7% +4.3 15
1986-08-10 @ Start L 0-1 1079 1205 14.7% 22.4% 62.9% -4.3 7
1986-08-10 Rosenborg D 1-1 1127 1217 38.2% 23.3% 38.6% +0.0 4
1986-08-10 @ Strommen D 1-1 1217 1127 38.6% 23.3% 38.2% -0.0 12
1986-08-13 Start L 3-4 1270 1209 56.9% 22.9% 20.2% -11.8 17
1986-08-13 @ Mjondalen W 4-3 1209 1270 20.2% 22.9% 56.9% +11.8 17
1986-08-13 Molde D 1-1 1217 1075 64.1% 22.2% 13.6% -2.9 13
1986-08-13 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1075 1217 13.6% 22.2% 64.1% +2.9 8
1986-08-13 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1127 1170 44.7% 23.3% 32.0% +19.3 6
1986-08-13 @ Strommen L 1-4 1170 1127 32.0% 23.3% 44.7% -19.3 14
1986-08-13 Bryne L 0-1 1140 1192 43.4% 23.3% 33.3% -10.6 9
1986-08-13 @ Tromso W 1-0 1192 1140 33.3% 23.3% 43.4% +10.6 17
1986-08-13 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1212 1166 55.3% 23.0% 21.7% -1.8 14
1986-08-13 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1166 1212 21.7% 23.0% 55.3% +1.8 16
1986-08-13 Lillestrom L 0-3 1089 1294 23.6% 22.7% 53.7% -17.7 7
1986-08-13 @ Viking W 3-0 1294 1089 53.7% 22.7% 23.6% +17.7 18
1986-08-17 Viking W 2-0 1203 1071 63.4% 22.3% 14.3% +7.9 19
1986-08-17 @ Bryne L 0-2 1071 1203 14.3% 22.3% 63.4% -7.9 7
1986-08-17 Start D 2-2 1168 1221 43.3% 23.3% 33.4% -0.4 17
1986-08-17 @ Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1221 1168 33.4% 23.3% 43.3% +0.4 18
1986-08-17 Kongsvinger L 0-2 1078 1150 40.6% 23.3% 36.1% -18.9 8
1986-08-17 @ Molde W 2-0 1150 1078 36.1% 23.3% 40.6% +18.9 16
1986-08-17 Mjondalen W 3-0 1214 1258 44.5% 23.3% 32.2% +23.0 15
1986-08-17 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1258 1214 32.2% 23.3% 44.5% -23.0 17
1986-08-17 Strommen D 1-1 1129 1146 48.1% 23.2% 28.7% -1.0 10
1986-08-17 @ Tromso D 1-1 1146 1129 28.7% 23.2% 48.1% +1.0 7
1986-08-18 Lillestrom L 0-1 1210 1312 36.5% 23.2% 40.3% -9.2 14
1986-08-18 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1312 1210 40.3% 23.2% 36.5% +9.2 20
1986-08-23 Bryne L 3-4 1147 1211 41.8% 23.3% 34.9% -9.0 7
1986-08-23 @ Strommen W 4-3 1211 1147 34.9% 23.3% 41.8% +9.0 21
1986-08-24 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1169 1168 50.3% 23.2% 26.5% +6.8 18
1986-08-24 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1168 1169 26.5% 23.2% 50.3% -6.8 17
1986-08-24 Start W 3-1 1321 1222 60.6% 22.6% 16.8% +7.9 22
1986-08-24 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1222 1321 16.8% 22.6% 60.6% -7.9 18
1986-08-24 Tromso W 2-0 1235 1128 61.3% 22.6% 16.2% +8.9 19
1986-08-24 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1128 1235 16.2% 22.6% 61.3% -8.9 10
1986-08-24 Molde L 0-2 1063 1059 50.6% 23.2% 26.2% -22.8 7
1986-08-24 @ Viking W 2-0 1059 1063 26.2% 23.2% 50.6% +22.8 10
1986-08-25 Rosenborg W 3-0 1201 1237 45.6% 23.3% 31.1% +22.3 16
1986-08-25 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1237 1201 31.1% 23.3% 45.6% -22.3 15
1986-08-30 Rosenborg W 2-0 1120 1214 37.4% 23.3% 39.3% +18.5 12
1986-08-30 @ Tromso L 0-2 1214 1120 39.3% 23.3% 37.4% -18.4 15
1986-08-31 Valerenga L 0-1 1220 1223 49.7% 23.2% 27.1% -11.9 21
1986-08-31 @ Bryne W 1-0 1223 1220 27.1% 23.2% 49.7% +11.9 18
1986-08-31 Strommen W 1-0 1161 1138 52.8% 23.1% 24.1% +6.6 19
1986-08-31 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1138 1161 24.1% 23.1% 52.8% -6.6 7
1986-08-31 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1329 1176 65.0% 22.1% 12.9% +8.8 24
1986-08-31 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1176 1329 12.9% 22.1% 65.0% -8.9 18
1986-08-31 Mjondalen D 2-2 1082 1244 28.5% 23.0% 48.5% +0.8 11
1986-08-31 @ Molde D 2-2 1244 1082 48.5% 23.0% 28.5% -0.8 20
1986-08-31 Viking D 2-2 1214 1040 66.5% 21.9% 11.6% -2.4 19
1986-08-31 @ Start D 2-2 1040 1214 11.6% 21.9% 66.5% +2.4 8
1986-09-07 Start D 0-0 1167 1211 44.5% 23.3% 32.2% -0.7 19
1986-09-07 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1211 1167 32.2% 23.3% 44.5% +0.7 20
1986-09-07 Bryne W 4-2 1243 1208 54.2% 23.1% 22.8% +9.2 22
1986-09-07 @ Mjondalen L 2-4 1208 1243 22.8% 23.1% 54.2% -9.2 21
1986-09-07 Lillestrom D 1-1 1196 1338 31.1% 23.1% 45.8% +0.8 16
1986-09-07 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1338 1196 45.8% 23.1% 31.1% -0.8 25
1986-09-07 Molde L 1-3 1132 1082 55.7% 23.0% 21.3% -21.6 7
1986-09-07 @ Strommen W 3-1 1082 1132 21.3% 23.0% 55.7% +21.6 13
1986-09-07 Tromso L 0-1 1235 1138 60.4% 22.6% 17.0% -14.3 18
1986-09-07 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1138 1235 17.0% 22.6% 60.4% +14.3 14
1986-09-07 Hamarkameratene W 6-4 1042 1168 33.2% 23.2% 43.6% +14.2 10
1986-09-07 @ Viking L 4-6 1168 1042 43.6% 23.2% 33.2% -14.2 19
1986-09-14 Tromso W 2-1 1199 1152 55.4% 23.0% 21.6% +5.7 23
1986-09-14 @ Bryne L 1-2 1152 1199 21.6% 23.0% 55.4% -5.7 14
1986-09-14 Valerenga L 3-5 1154 1221 41.3% 23.3% 35.4% -14.0 19
1986-09-14 @ Hamarkameratene W 5-3 1221 1154 35.4% 23.3% 41.3% +14.0 20
1986-09-14 Strommen W 3-0 1167 1110 56.5% 22.9% 20.6% +15.9 21
1986-09-14 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1110 1167 20.6% 22.9% 56.5% -15.9 7
1986-09-14 Viking W 3-1 1337 1057 72.8% 20.4% 6.8% +3.3 27
1986-09-14 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1057 1337 6.8% 20.4% 72.8% -3.3 10
1986-09-14 Rosenborg W 1-0 1104 1197 37.7% 23.3% 39.0% +9.7 15
1986-09-14 @ Molde L 0-1 1197 1104 39.0% 23.3% 37.7% -9.7 16
1986-09-14 Mjondalen D 0-0 1212 1252 45.0% 23.3% 31.7% -0.8 21
1986-09-14 @ Start D 0-0 1252 1212 31.7% 23.3% 45.0% +0.8 23
1986-09-27 Bryne W 3-2 1187 1205 47.9% 23.3% 28.8% +6.9 18
1986-09-27 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1205 1187 28.8% 23.3% 47.9% -6.9 23
1986-09-28 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1253 1140 61.9% 22.5% 15.7% -2.9 24
1986-09-28 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1140 1253 15.7% 22.5% 61.9% +2.9 20
1986-09-28 Start D 1-1 1094 1211 34.3% 23.2% 42.5% +0.4 8
1986-09-28 @ Strommen D 1-1 1211 1094 42.5% 23.2% 34.3% -0.4 22
1986-09-28 Molde L 2-3 1235 1114 62.5% 22.4% 15.1% -13.2 20
1986-09-28 @ Valerenga W 3-2 1114 1235 15.1% 22.4% 62.5% +13.2 17
1986-09-28 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1053 1183 32.7% 23.2% 44.1% +0.6 11
1986-09-28 @ Viking D 1-1 1183 1053 44.1% 23.2% 32.7% -0.6 22
1986-10-05 Rosenborg D 1-1 1142 1194 43.5% 23.3% 33.2% -0.5 21
1986-10-05 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1194 1142 33.2% 23.3% 43.5% +0.5 19
1986-10-05 Mjondalen D 0-0 1182 1250 41.2% 23.3% 35.5% -0.3 23
1986-10-05 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1250 1182 35.5% 23.3% 41.2% +0.3 25
1986-10-05 Bryne W 3-0 1341 1198 64.2% 22.2% 13.6% +11.0 29
1986-10-05 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1198 1341 13.6% 22.2% 64.2% -11.0 23
1986-10-05 Tromso D 1-1 1127 1147 47.7% 23.3% 29.0% -1.0 18
1986-10-05 @ Molde D 1-1 1147 1127 29.0% 23.3% 47.7% +1.0 15
1986-10-05 Valerenga L 1-2 1211 1222 48.8% 23.2% 28.0% -11.0 22
1986-10-05 @ Start W 2-1 1222 1211 28.0% 23.2% 48.8% +11.0 22
1986-10-05 Strommen W 4-0 1054 1094 45.0% 23.3% 31.8% +29.7 13
1986-10-05 @ Viking L 0-4 1094 1054 31.8% 23.3% 45.0% -29.7 8
1986-10-08 Lillestrom W 2-1 1148 1352 23.8% 22.7% 53.5% +12.0 17
1986-10-08 @ Tromso L 1-2 1352 1148 53.5% 22.7% 23.8% -12.0 29
1986-10-12 Molde L 1-3 1187 1126 56.9% 22.9% 20.2% -22.0 23
1986-10-12 @ Bryne W 3-1 1126 1187 20.2% 22.9% 56.9% +22.0 20
1986-10-12 Strommen W 1-0 1340 1065 72.5% 20.5% 7.0% +2.1 31
1986-10-12 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1065 1340 7.0% 20.5% 72.5% -2.1 8
1986-10-12 Viking L 0-1 1251 1083 66.0% 21.9% 12.0% -15.6 25
1986-10-12 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1083 1251 12.0% 21.9% 66.0% +15.6 15
1986-10-12 Start W 1-0 1194 1200 49.5% 23.2% 27.3% +7.4 21
1986-10-12 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1200 1194 27.3% 23.2% 49.5% -7.3 22
1986-10-12 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1160 1142 52.2% 23.1% 24.6% -1.5 18
1986-10-12 @ Tromso D 1-1 1142 1160 24.6% 23.1% 52.2% +1.5 22
1986-10-12 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1233 1182 55.9% 23.0% 21.1% -13.3 22
1986-10-12 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1182 1233 21.1% 23.0% 55.9% +13.3 25
1986-10-19 Bryne W 2-0 1143 1165 47.5% 23.3% 29.2% +14.7 24
1986-10-19 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1165 1143 29.2% 23.3% 47.5% -14.7 23
1986-10-19 Rosenborg W 2-1 1195 1202 49.3% 23.2% 27.5% +7.0 27
1986-10-19 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1202 1195 27.5% 23.2% 49.3% -7.0 21
1986-10-19 Lillestrom L 0-1 1148 1342 24.9% 22.8% 52.3% -6.8 20
1986-10-19 @ Molde W 1-0 1342 1148 52.3% 22.8% 24.9% +6.8 33
1986-10-19 Tromso W 6-2 1192 1158 54.1% 23.1% 22.8% +16.0 24
1986-10-19 @ Start L 2-6 1158 1192 22.8% 23.1% 54.1% -16.0 18
1986-10-19 Mjondalen L 1-2 1063 1235 27.3% 22.9% 49.7% -6.9 8
1986-10-19 @ Strommen W 2-1 1235 1063 49.7% 22.9% 27.3% +6.9 27
1986-10-19 Valerenga W 1-0 1099 1220 33.9% 23.2% 42.9% +10.5 17
1986-10-19 @ Viking L 0-1 1220 1099 42.9% 23.2% 33.9% -10.5 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-10-12 12.02% Viking 1083 1 @ Mjondalen 1251 0
2 1986-05-04 12.39% Hamarkameratene 1087 2 @ Lillestrom 1248 0
3 1986-09-28 15.07% Molde 1114 3 @ Valerenga 1235 2
4 1986-06-07 16.72% Molde 1084 2 @ Tromso 1184 0
5 1986-09-07 16.95% Tromso 1138 1 @ Valerenga 1235 0
6 1986-05-19 17.73% Kongsvinger 1136 1 @ Start 1224 0
7 1986-06-24 18.13% Kongsvinger 1146 3 @ Rosenborg 1229 1
8 1986-06-22 19.31% Hamarkameratene 1149 2 @ Bryne 1219 0
9 1986-05-11 19.66% Valerenga 1204 2 @ Rosenborg 1270 1
10 1986-10-12 20.19% Molde 1126 3 @ Bryne 1187 1
11 1986-08-13 20.22% Start 1209 4 @ Mjondalen 1270 3
12 1986-10-12 21.11% Kongsvinger 1182 1 @ Valerenga 1233 0
13 1986-09-07 21.32% Molde 1082 3 @ Strommen 1132 1
14 1986-05-16 23.65% Hamarkameratene 1119 1 @ Strommen 1145 0
15 1986-10-08 23.75% @ Tromso 1148 2 Lillestrom 1352 1
16 1986-05-22 25.52% Bryne 1200 1 @ Start 1210 0
17 1986-05-05 26.07% Mjondalen 1231 1 @ Valerenga 1236 0
18 1986-08-24 26.19% Molde 1059 2 @ Viking 1063 0
19 1986-08-31 27.07% Valerenga 1223 1 @ Bryne 1220 0
20 1986-05-08 27.23% Rosenborg 1248 2 @ Mjondalen 1243 0
21 1986-05-04 27.44% Start 1152 4 @ Molde 1146 0
22 1986-05-11 27.44% Mjondalen 1220 2 @ Tromso 1214 1
23 1986-06-07 27.76% Lillestrom 1235 2 @ Bryne 1226 0
24 1986-04-27 27.88% Valerenga 1217 3 @ Strommen 1206 1
25 1986-10-05 27.99% Valerenga 1222 2 @ Start 1211 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-05-04 42.30 Start 4 1152 27.44% @ Molde 0 1146 49.33% 23.23%
2 1986-10-05 29.66 @ Viking 4 1054 44.96% Strommen 0 1094 31.75% 23.29%
3 1986-05-04 29.25 Hamarkameratene 2 1087 12.39% @ Lillestrom 0 1248 65.60% 22.01%
4 1986-06-07 27.07 Molde 2 1084 16.72% @ Tromso 0 1184 60.67% 22.61%
5 1986-05-19 26.87 Strommen 4 1133 28.31% @ Molde 1 1119 48.44% 23.25%
6 1986-06-22 25.84 Hamarkameratene 2 1149 19.31% @ Bryne 0 1219 57.84% 22.85%
7 1986-08-17 22.98 @ Rosenborg 3 1214 44.46% Mjondalen 0 1258 32.24% 23.30%
8 1986-06-24 22.85 Kongsvinger 3 1146 18.13% @ Rosenborg 1 1229 59.12% 22.75%
9 1986-08-24 22.82 Molde 2 1059 26.19% @ Viking 0 1063 50.62% 23.19%
10 1986-05-08 22.38 Rosenborg 2 1248 27.23% @ Mjondalen 0 1243 49.54% 23.22%
11 1986-08-25 22.33 @ Valerenga 3 1201 45.63% Rosenborg 0 1237 31.08% 23.29%
12 1986-06-07 22.17 Lillestrom 2 1235 27.76% @ Bryne 0 1226 49.00% 23.23%
13 1986-10-12 22.03 Molde 3 1126 20.19% @ Bryne 1 1187 56.90% 22.91%
14 1986-09-07 21.59 Molde 3 1082 21.32% @ Strommen 1 1132 55.70% 22.98%
15 1986-05-08 20.07 @ Lillestrom 3 1219 49.59% Valerenga 0 1224 27.19% 23.22%
16 1986-08-13 19.29 @ Strommen 4 1127 44.66% Kongsvinger 1 1170 32.05% 23.30%
17 1986-04-27 19.15 Valerenga 3 1217 27.88% @ Strommen 1 1206 48.88% 23.24%
18 1986-06-07 19.04 @ Mjondalen 4 1234 58.63% Kongsvinger 0 1156 18.58% 22.79%
19 1986-08-17 18.92 Kongsvinger 2 1150 36.13% @ Molde 0 1078 40.57% 23.30%
20 1986-08-30 18.45 @ Tromso 2 1120 37.44% Rosenborg 0 1214 39.29% 23.27%
21 1986-08-13 17.73 Lillestrom 3 1294 53.71% @ Viking 0 1089 23.57% 22.71%
22 1986-05-05 16.77 @ Rosenborg 3 1231 55.10% Strommen 0 1187 21.88% 23.01%
23 1986-04-27 16.12 @ Mjondalen 2 1215 43.71% Lillestrom 0 1265 32.99% 23.30%
24 1986-10-19 16.05 @ Start 6 1192 54.11% Tromso 2 1158 22.83% 23.06%
25 1986-06-18 16.04 @ Start 2 1197 43.91% Rosenborg 0 1245 32.79% 23.30%