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1985 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

8.18 points above expected

33 points · 24.82 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Eik Tonsberg

9.19 points below expected

8 points · 17.19 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 22 15 3 4 33 43 22 +21 24.82 +8.18
2 Lillestrom 22 12 8 2 32 39 11 +28 26.79 +5.21
3 Valerenga 22 9 6 7 24 44 31 +13 26.11 -2.11
4 Kongsvinger 22 9 6 7 24 33 34 -1 21.60 +2.40
5 Mjondalen 22 9 4 9 22 40 31 +9 20.94 +1.06
6 Start 22 9 3 10 21 40 44 -4 20.08 +0.92
7 Viking 22 8 5 9 21 28 36 -8 21.51 -0.51
8 Molde 22 7 7 8 21 25 33 -8 20.68 +0.32
9 Bryne 22 6 8 8 20 34 29 +5 23.12 -3.12
10 Moss 22 7 5 10 19 29 34 -5 20.36 -1.36
11 Brann 22 8 3 11 19 26 34 -8 20.80 -1.80
12 Eik Tonsberg 22 2 4 16 8 15 57 -42 17.19 -9.19

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lillestrom 1371 32 26.79 +5.21 93.7% 13 21 24 27 29 33 39
Rosenborg 1336 33 24.82 +8.18 99.3% 10 19 22 25 27 31 38
Valerenga 1297 24 26.11 -2.11 33.4% 13 20 24 26 29 32 39
Mjondalen 1292 22 20.94 +1.06 65.7% 6 15 18 21 24 27 36
Bryne 1224 20 23.12 -3.12 24.0% 10 17 21 23 26 29 37
Start 1199 21 20.08 +0.92 64.7% 5 14 18 20 23 26 34
Kongsvinger 1198 24 21.60 +2.40 77.2% 8 15 19 22 24 28 37
Moss 1191 19 20.36 -1.36 41.5% 5 14 18 20 23 27 35
Molde 1188 21 20.68 +0.32 58.9% 6 14 18 21 23 27 34
Brann 1178 19 20.80 -1.80 37.1% 8 14 18 21 23 27 34
Viking 1163 21 21.51 -0.51 50.5% 8 15 19 21 24 28 37
Eik Tonsberg 1035 8 17.19 -9.19 0.8% 5 11 15 17 20 23 36

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA BRY ET KON LIL MJO MOL MOS ROS STA VAL VIK
Brann —
2-0-0
2.39
2-0-0
3.29
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-2
1.93
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.62
2-0-0
2.64
0-0-2
2.46
0-0-2
2.87
1-0-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.68
Bryne
0-0-2
3.12
 —
1-0-1
3.72
1-1-0
2.65
0-2-0
2.42
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
3.04
0-0-2
2.55
0-1-1
3.23
0-1-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.88
Eik Tonsberg
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
1.80
 —
0-0-2
2.40
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-2
2.15
0-2-0
2.59
0-1-1
2.51
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
1.71
1-0-1
2.07
Kongsvinger
1-1-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.86
2-0-0
3.12
 —
0-2-0
1.99
0-0-2
2.95
1-0-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.39
1-0-1
3.27
2-0-0
1.94
1-0-1
2.72
Lillestrom
2-0-0
3.59
0-2-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.99
0-2-0
3.52
 —
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
3.07
2-0-0
3.36
0-2-0
3.01
1-1-0
3.44
Mjondalen
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.44
2-0-0
3.35
2-0-0
2.55
0-0-2
1.90
 —
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.27
2-0-0
2.61
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
2.75
Molde
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.62
0-2-0
2.91
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.73
 —
0-1-1
2.82
0-0-2
2.35
0-1-1
2.98
2-0-0
1.87
1-0-1
2.32
Moss
0-0-2
2.86
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
3.00
1-1-0
2.60
1-0-1
1.99
1-0-1
2.72
1-1-0
2.69
 —
0-0-2
2.06
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.59
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.04
2-0-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.76
0-1-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.44
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.45
 —
2-0-0
3.53
0-1-1
2.36
1-0-1
3.49
Start
2-0-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.28
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
2.90
1-1-0
2.53
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-2
1.98
 —
0-0-2
2.33
1-1-0
2.58
Valerenga
1-0-1
3.24
1-1-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.83
0-0-2
3.58
0-2-0
2.50
2-0-0
3.18
0-0-2
3.65
1-0-1
3.58
1-1-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.20
 —
0-1-1
3.54
Viking
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
3.45
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.07
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
2.91
1-0-1
2.02
0-1-1
2.93
1-1-0
1.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.62 +5.8
Allowed 0.79 -5.2
Differential 0.87 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%7.58%4.92%3.79%1.52%2.27%26.89%
17.58%12.88%6.82%3.03%1.89%2.27%34.47%
24.92%6.82%3.03%3.03%0.38%0.38%18.56%
33.79%3.03%3.03%0.76%0.38%—10.98%
41.52%1.89%0.38%0.38%——4.17%
5+2.27%2.27%0.38%———4.92%
Total26.89%34.47%18.56%10.98%4.17%4.92%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.32
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%22.73%——4.55%4.55%40.91%
19.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
2—13.64%—4.55%——18.18%
39.09%——4.55%——13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%40.91%4.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.55 -0.36
SD 1.26 1.63 2.19
CV 1.07 1.05 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%————13.64%
1—31.82%13.64%4.55%——50.00%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%—22.73%
3——4.55%———4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total18.18%50.00%18.18%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.32 +0.23
SD 1.37 1.04 1.85
CV 0.89 0.79 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%45.45%
14.55%9.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%9.09%50.00%
2———————
3———————
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%18.18%18.18%18.18%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 2.59 -1.91
SD 0.89 2.20 2.56
CV 1.31 0.85 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%—4.55%—4.55%22.73%
19.09%13.64%———9.09%31.82%
29.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%36.36%4.55%13.64%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.55 -0.05
SD 1.37 1.71 2.44
CV 0.91 1.11 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
118.18%18.18%————36.36%
213.64%—4.55%———18.18%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
4———————
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total59.09%31.82%9.09%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 0.50 +1.27
SD 1.97 0.67 2.14
CV 1.11 1.35 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
1—9.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total22.73%45.45%13.64%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.41 +0.41
SD 1.56 1.40 2.32
CV 0.86 1.00 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%—4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
14.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
29.09%9.09%———4.55%22.73%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%22.73%18.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.50 -0.36
SD 0.94 1.65 1.87
CV 0.83 1.10 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%——27.27%
19.09%13.64%13.64%——4.55%40.91%
29.09%—4.55%4.55%——18.18%
3——9.09%———9.09%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total22.73%22.73%40.91%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.55 -0.23
SD 1.39 1.22 1.77
CV 1.06 0.79 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
122.73%9.09%9.09%———40.91%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
3—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
44.55%9.09%————13.64%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total31.82%40.91%22.73%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.00 +0.95
SD 1.40 0.87 1.76
CV 0.71 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%—9.09%36.36%
1—9.09%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
2———————
39.09%4.55%13.64%—4.55%—31.82%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+—9.09%————9.09%
Total13.64%36.36%27.27%4.55%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 2.00 -0.18
SD 1.84 1.83 3.00
CV 1.01 0.91 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%——27.27%
14.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
2—9.09%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
5+9.09%4.55%————13.64%
Total18.18%36.36%31.82%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.41 +0.59
SD 2.05 0.96 2.48
CV 1.02 0.68 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%—27.27%
19.09%13.64%—4.55%4.55%—31.82%
24.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
34.55%—————4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%13.64%22.73%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.64 -0.36
SD 1.08 1.33 2.11
CV 0.85 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rosenborg 33 24.82 +8.18
2 Lillestrom 32 26.79 +5.21
3 Kongsvinger 24 21.60 +2.40
4 Mjondalen 22 20.94 +1.06
5 Start 21 20.08 +0.92

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Eik Tonsberg 8 17.19 -9.19
2 Bryne 20 23.12 -3.12
3 Valerenga 24 26.11 -2.11
4 Brann 19 20.80 -1.80
5 Moss 19 20.36 -1.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rosenborg 6 Sep 1 – Oct 13 1 in 81
2 Lillestrom 4 May 5 – May 19 1 in 33
3 Moss 3 Jun 30 – Aug 11 1 in 18
4 Kongsvinger 3 Aug 11 – Aug 25 1 in 12
5 Molde 2 May 16 – May 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Eik Tonsberg 8 Aug 11 – Sep 29 1 in 72
2 Brann 4 Aug 7 – Aug 25 1 in 37
3 Moss 4 May 19 – Jun 10 1 in 32
4 Bryne 3 Aug 19 – Aug 28 1 in 15
5 Start 2 May 5 – May 12 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 15 Apr 27 – Aug 25 1 in 119
2 Molde 6 Aug 4 – Sep 1 1 in 43
3 Viking 7 May 27 – Aug 7 1 in 41
4 Mjondalen 8 Jun 30 – Sep 8 1 in 29
5 Rosenborg 9 Aug 19 – Oct 13 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bryne 9 Jul 3 – Sep 15 1 in 87
2 Eik Tonsberg 15 May 27 – Sep 29 1 in 84
3 Brann 7 Jun 17 – Aug 25 1 in 15
4 Valerenga 4 May 30 – Jun 16 1 in 13
5 Moss 6 May 19 – Jun 24 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Rosenborg16.60%17.75%15.30%13.01%9.65%8.04%6.38%4.72%3.43%2.63%1.64%0.85%
Lillestrom35.37%21.21%13.72%9.58%6.80%4.88%3.07%2.07%1.50%1.05%0.60%0.15%
Valerenga25.13%21.24%15.10%11.08%8.59%6.11%4.45%3.25%2.40%1.44%0.85%0.36%
Kongsvinger3.46%5.73%7.69%9.35%10.41%10.07%10.33%10.39%9.87%8.64%8.24%5.82%
Mjondalen2.61%4.94%7.17%8.43%9.11%10.09%10.44%10.96%10.12%9.91%9.12%7.10%
Start1.40%2.92%4.01%6.11%7.39%9.12%9.78%11.13%11.70%12.22%13.57%10.65%
Viking2.82%5.28%7.12%8.71%9.55%10.10%10.45%10.41%11.28%9.65%8.62%6.01%
Molde1.91%3.59%5.26%6.81%8.31%9.02%10.54%10.68%11.17%12.48%10.90%9.33%
Bryne6.83%10.03%12.72%12.00%11.37%10.98%9.50%8.39%6.57%5.30%3.81%2.50%
Moss1.55%3.03%5.12%6.31%8.00%9.08%9.83%11.34%11.12%12.42%12.36%9.84%
Brann2.10%3.77%5.86%7.19%8.23%9.29%10.51%10.23%11.47%11.56%10.85%8.94%
Eik Tonsberg0.22%0.51%0.93%1.42%2.59%3.22%4.72%6.43%9.37%12.70%19.44%38.45%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.45%
Clear Edge
48.48%23.48%28.03%
Elo Value
Home Edge
132 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
072.08400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.67 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.54+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
17%
Rosenborg, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.03 * Some Luck: 3.03 to 4.55 * Lucky: 4.55 to 6.06 * Wild Swing: 6.06 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.04 * Close: 2.04 to 3.06 * Off: 3.06 to 4.08 * Way Off: 4.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.14 points
Some Luck
03.799
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.83
Pinpoint
02.556
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.28%
Rosenborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.76%
Eik Tonsberg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.36
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Very Frequent
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.42
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.05
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.054
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Lillestrom 98.20% 1.05% 0.75%
Valerenga 97.35% 1.44% 1.21%
Rosenborg 94.88% 2.63% 2.49%
Bryne 88.39% 5.30% 6.31%
Kongsvinger 77.30% 8.64% 14.06%
Viking 75.72% 9.65% 14.63%
Mjondalen 73.87% 9.91% 16.22%
Brann 68.65% 11.56% 19.79%
Molde 67.29% 12.48% 20.23%
Moss 65.38% 12.42% 22.20%
Start 63.56% 12.22% 24.22%
Eik Tonsberg 29.41% 12.70% 57.89%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1985-04-27 Valerenga W 3-0 1221 1277 44.6% 24.9% 30.5% +22.2 2
1985-04-27 @ Brann L 0-3 1277 1221 30.5% 24.9% 44.6% -22.2 0
1985-04-27 Lillestrom D 1-1 1215 1236 49.2% 24.8% 26.0% -1.2 1
1985-04-27 @ Bryne D 1-1 1236 1215 26.0% 24.8% 49.2% +1.2 1
1985-04-27 Viking W 3-2 1241 1231 52.8% 24.7% 22.6% +5.7 2
1985-04-27 @ Start L 2-3 1231 1241 22.6% 24.7% 52.8% -5.7 0
1985-05-01 Kongsvinger D 2-2 1213 1216 51.2% 24.7% 24.1% -1.1 1
1985-05-01 @ Moss D 2-2 1216 1213 24.1% 24.7% 51.2% +1.1 1
1985-05-05 Moss D 0-0 1214 1212 51.9% 24.7% 23.4% -1.7 1
1985-05-05 @ Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1212 1214 23.4% 24.7% 51.9% +1.7 2
1985-05-05 Brann D 0-0 1217 1243 48.6% 24.8% 26.6% -1.3 2
1985-05-05 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1243 1217 26.6% 24.8% 48.6% +1.3 3
1985-05-05 Start W 2-0 1237 1247 50.5% 24.8% 24.8% +13.0 3
1985-05-05 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1247 1237 24.8% 24.8% 50.5% -13.0 2
1985-05-05 Bryne L 1-2 1182 1214 47.7% 24.9% 27.4% -10.9 0
1985-05-05 @ Mjondalen W 2-1 1214 1182 27.4% 24.9% 47.7% +10.9 3
1985-05-06 Molde W 2-1 1225 1202 54.2% 24.6% 21.2% +5.7 2
1985-05-06 @ Viking L 1-2 1202 1225 21.2% 24.6% 54.2% -5.7 0
1985-05-08 Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1196 1213 49.6% 24.8% 25.6% -1.4 1
1985-05-08 @ Molde D 0-0 1213 1196 25.6% 24.8% 49.6% +1.4 2
1985-05-08 Mjondalen W 3-1 1223 1171 57.1% 24.4% 18.5% +8.8 2
1985-05-08 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1171 1223 18.5% 24.4% 57.1% -8.8 0
1985-05-12 Valerenga D 1-1 1225 1255 48.0% 24.8% 27.2% -1.1 4
1985-05-12 @ Bryne D 1-1 1255 1225 27.2% 24.8% 48.0% +1.1 1
1985-05-12 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1214 1216 51.4% 24.7% 23.9% -12.3 2
1985-05-12 @ Eik Tonsberg W 1-0 1216 1214 23.9% 24.7% 51.4% +12.3 4
1985-05-12 Lillestrom L 1-3 1194 1250 44.8% 24.9% 30.3% -17.8 1
1985-05-12 @ Molde W 3-1 1250 1194 30.3% 24.9% 44.8% +17.8 5
1985-05-12 Viking D 1-1 1213 1231 49.5% 24.8% 25.7% -1.2 3
1985-05-12 @ Moss D 1-1 1231 1213 25.7% 24.8% 49.5% +1.2 3
1985-05-12 Mjondalen L 0-3 1234 1162 59.0% 24.2% 16.8% -38.4 2
1985-05-12 @ Start W 3-0 1162 1234 16.8% 24.2% 59.0% +38.4 2
1985-05-13 Brann W 4-0 1232 1244 50.2% 24.8% 25.0% +24.8 4
1985-05-13 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1244 1232 25.0% 24.8% 50.2% -24.8 3
1985-05-16 Start L 1-4 1219 1196 54.2% 24.6% 21.2% -29.9 3
1985-05-16 @ Brann W 4-1 1196 1219 21.2% 24.6% 54.2% +29.9 4
1985-05-16 Eik Tonsberg W 8-0 1268 1202 58.4% 24.3% 17.3% +35.1 7
1985-05-16 @ Lillestrom L 0-8 1202 1268 17.3% 24.3% 58.4% -35.1 2
1985-05-16 Moss L 0-1 1200 1212 50.2% 24.8% 25.0% -12.0 2
1985-05-16 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1212 1200 25.0% 24.8% 50.2% +12.0 5
1985-05-16 Bryne W 3-1 1257 1224 55.2% 24.5% 20.3% +9.5 6
1985-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1224 1257 20.3% 24.5% 55.2% -9.5 4
1985-05-16 Molde L 0-2 1256 1177 59.7% 24.1% 16.2% -26.7 1
1985-05-16 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1177 1256 16.2% 24.1% 59.7% +26.7 3
1985-05-16 Kongsvinger W 3-0 1232 1228 52.0% 24.7% 23.3% +17.9 5
1985-05-16 @ Viking L 0-3 1228 1232 23.3% 24.7% 52.0% -17.9 4
1985-05-19 Brann L 0-1 1214 1190 54.3% 24.6% 21.1% -12.9 4
1985-05-19 @ Bryne W 1-0 1190 1214 21.1% 24.6% 54.3% +13.0 5
1985-05-19 Viking W 4-0 1167 1250 41.1% 24.9% 34.0% +31.5 4
1985-05-19 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-4 1250 1167 34.0% 24.9% 41.1% -31.5 5
1985-05-19 Rosenborg W 2-0 1210 1266 44.7% 24.9% 30.4% +15.2 6
1985-05-19 @ Kongsvinger L 0-2 1266 1210 30.4% 24.9% 44.7% -15.2 6
1985-05-19 Mjondalen W 3-2 1203 1188 53.3% 24.6% 22.1% +5.6 5
1985-05-19 @ Molde L 2-3 1188 1203 22.1% 24.6% 53.3% -5.6 2
1985-05-19 Lillestrom L 0-2 1224 1303 41.7% 24.9% 33.4% -19.4 5
1985-05-19 @ Moss W 2-0 1303 1224 33.4% 24.9% 41.7% +19.4 9
1985-05-19 Valerenga L 0-7 1225 1230 51.1% 24.8% 24.1% -74.2 4
1985-05-19 @ Start W 7-0 1230 1225 24.1% 24.8% 51.1% +74.2 3
1985-05-27 Molde D 0-0 1202 1209 50.8% 24.8% 24.4% -1.6 6
1985-05-27 @ Brann D 0-0 1209 1202 24.4% 24.8% 50.8% +1.6 6
1985-05-27 Bryne L 2-3 1226 1201 54.3% 24.6% 21.2% -11.6 6
1985-05-27 @ Kongsvinger W 3-2 1201 1226 21.2% 24.6% 54.3% +11.6 6
1985-05-27 Viking D 2-2 1322 1218 61.7% 23.9% 14.4% -2.0 10
1985-05-27 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1218 1322 14.4% 23.9% 61.7% +2.0 6
1985-05-27 Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1183 1198 49.8% 24.8% 25.4% +6.6 4
1985-05-27 @ Mjondalen L 1-2 1198 1183 25.4% 24.8% 49.8% -6.6 4
1985-05-27 Start W 1-0 1251 1151 61.4% 23.9% 14.7% +4.4 8
1985-05-27 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1151 1251 14.7% 23.9% 61.4% -4.4 4
1985-05-27 Moss W 5-1 1304 1205 61.3% 23.9% 14.7% +13.2 5
1985-05-27 @ Valerenga L 1-5 1205 1304 14.7% 23.9% 61.3% -13.2 5
1985-05-30 Rosenborg D 2-2 1317 1256 58.0% 24.3% 17.7% -1.7 6
1985-05-30 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1256 1317 17.7% 24.3% 58.0% +1.7 9
1985-06-02 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1320 1214 61.9% 23.8% 14.2% -2.7 11
1985-06-02 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1214 1320 14.2% 23.8% 61.9% +2.7 7
1985-06-02 Rosenborg L 0-2 1210 1257 45.9% 24.9% 29.2% -21.0 6
1985-06-02 @ Molde W 2-0 1257 1210 29.2% 24.9% 45.9% +21.0 11
1985-06-02 Brann L 1-2 1192 1201 50.5% 24.8% 24.7% -11.4 5
1985-06-02 @ Moss W 2-1 1201 1192 24.7% 24.8% 50.5% +11.4 8
1985-06-02 Bryne W 3-2 1147 1213 43.4% 24.9% 31.7% +7.5 6
1985-06-02 @ Start L 2-3 1213 1147 31.7% 24.9% 43.4% -7.5 6
1985-06-03 Valerenga D 1-1 1192 1315 35.4% 24.8% 39.8% +0.2 5
1985-06-03 @ Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1315 1192 39.8% 24.8% 35.4% -0.2 7
1985-06-03 Mjondalen W 2-0 1220 1189 55.0% 24.5% 20.5% +11.1 8
1985-06-03 @ Viking L 0-2 1189 1220 20.5% 24.5% 55.0% -11.1 4
1985-06-09 Molde W 4-0 1206 1189 53.4% 24.6% 22.0% +22.3 8
1985-06-09 @ Bryne L 0-4 1189 1206 22.0% 24.6% 53.4% -22.3 6
1985-06-09 Start W 6-0 1217 1154 58.1% 24.3% 17.6% +27.1 9
1985-06-09 @ Kongsvinger L 0-6 1154 1217 17.6% 24.3% 58.1% -27.1 6
1985-06-09 Lillestrom L 0-1 1178 1318 33.2% 24.8% 42.0% -8.6 4
1985-06-09 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1318 1178 42.0% 24.8% 33.2% +8.6 13
1985-06-10 Eik Tonsberg W 3-0 1212 1192 53.8% 24.6% 21.5% +16.8 10
1985-06-10 @ Brann L 0-3 1192 1212 21.5% 24.6% 53.8% -16.8 5
1985-06-10 Moss W 1-0 1278 1180 61.3% 23.9% 14.8% +4.4 13
1985-06-10 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1180 1278 14.8% 23.9% 61.3% -4.4 5
1985-06-10 Viking D 2-2 1315 1232 60.0% 24.1% 15.9% -1.8 8
1985-06-10 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1232 1315 15.9% 24.1% 60.0% +1.8 9
1985-06-16 Rosenborg L 1-4 1175 1283 37.6% 24.9% 37.5% -21.9 5
1985-06-16 @ Eik Tonsberg W 4-1 1283 1175 37.5% 24.9% 37.6% +21.9 15
1985-06-16 Valerenga D 1-1 1326 1313 53.0% 24.7% 22.3% -1.6 14
1985-06-16 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1313 1326 22.3% 24.7% 53.0% +1.6 9
1985-06-16 Kongsvinger W 5-1 1170 1244 42.3% 24.9% 32.8% +25.5 6
1985-06-16 @ Mjondalen L 1-5 1244 1170 32.8% 24.9% 42.3% -25.5 9
1985-06-16 Start D 1-1 1167 1127 55.9% 24.5% 19.6% -2.0 7
1985-06-16 @ Molde D 1-1 1127 1167 19.6% 24.5% 55.9% +2.0 7
1985-06-16 Bryne D 1-1 1176 1228 45.2% 24.9% 29.9% -0.8 6
1985-06-16 @ Moss D 1-1 1228 1176 29.9% 24.9% 45.2% +0.8 9
1985-06-17 Brann W 1-0 1233 1229 52.1% 24.7% 23.2% +6.5 11
1985-06-17 @ Viking L 0-1 1229 1233 23.2% 24.7% 52.1% -6.5 10
1985-06-22 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1165 1218 45.1% 24.9% 30.0% +8.0 9
1985-06-22 @ Molde L 0-1 1218 1165 30.0% 24.9% 45.1% -8.0 9
1985-06-23 Eik Tonsberg W 6-0 1229 1153 59.3% 24.2% 16.6% +25.6 11
1985-06-23 @ Bryne L 0-6 1153 1229 16.6% 24.2% 59.3% -25.6 5
1985-06-23 Viking L 1-2 1305 1240 58.3% 24.3% 17.4% -13.1 15
1985-06-23 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1240 1305 17.4% 24.3% 58.3% +13.1 13
1985-06-23 Mjondalen W 2-1 1315 1195 63.0% 23.7% 13.3% +3.8 11
1985-06-23 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1195 1315 13.3% 23.7% 63.0% -3.8 6
1985-06-24 Lillestrom L 0-1 1223 1325 38.4% 24.9% 36.7% -9.6 10
1985-06-24 @ Brann W 1-0 1325 1223 36.7% 24.9% 38.4% +9.6 16
1985-06-24 Moss W 3-0 1129 1175 46.0% 24.9% 29.1% +21.4 9
1985-06-24 @ Start L 0-3 1175 1129 29.1% 24.9% 46.0% -21.4 6
1985-06-30 Rosenborg W 3-0 1334 1292 56.2% 24.5% 19.4% +15.4 18
1985-06-30 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1292 1334 19.4% 24.5% 56.2% -15.4 15
1985-06-30 Brann D 3-3 1191 1213 49.0% 24.8% 26.1% -0.7 7
1985-06-30 @ Mjondalen D 3-3 1213 1191 26.1% 24.8% 49.0% +0.7 11
1985-06-30 Molde W 6-2 1154 1173 49.3% 24.8% 25.9% +18.0 8
1985-06-30 @ Moss L 2-6 1173 1154 25.9% 24.8% 49.3% -18.0 9
1985-07-03 Start L 0-3 1128 1151 48.9% 24.8% 26.3% -32.2 5
1985-07-03 @ Eik Tonsberg W 3-0 1151 1128 26.3% 24.8% 48.9% +32.2 11
1985-07-03 Valerenga W 2-1 1210 1319 37.5% 24.9% 37.6% +9.0 11
1985-07-03 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1319 1210 37.6% 24.9% 37.5% -9.0 11
1985-07-03 Bryne D 1-1 1253 1254 51.4% 24.7% 23.8% -1.5 14
1985-07-03 @ Viking D 1-1 1254 1253 23.8% 24.7% 51.4% +1.5 12
1985-08-04 Molde D 1-1 1095 1155 44.2% 24.9% 30.9% -0.7 6
1985-08-04 @ Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1155 1095 30.9% 24.9% 44.2% +0.7 10
1985-08-04 Moss L 2-3 1219 1172 56.6% 24.4% 18.9% -12.0 11
1985-08-04 @ Kongsvinger W 3-2 1172 1219 18.9% 24.4% 56.6% +12.0 10
1985-08-04 Bryne D 1-1 1350 1256 60.9% 24.0% 15.1% -2.6 19
1985-08-04 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1256 1350 15.1% 24.0% 60.9% +2.6 13
1985-08-04 Rosenborg D 1-1 1191 1276 40.7% 24.9% 34.4% -0.3 8
1985-08-04 @ Mjondalen D 1-1 1276 1191 34.4% 24.9% 40.7% +0.3 16
1985-08-07 Brann W 6-0 1310 1214 61.1% 24.0% 14.9% +23.4 13
1985-08-07 @ Valerenga L 0-6 1214 1310 14.9% 24.0% 61.1% -23.4 11
1985-08-07 Start D 1-1 1252 1183 58.7% 24.2% 17.1% -2.3 15
1985-08-07 @ Viking D 1-1 1183 1252 17.1% 24.2% 58.7% +2.3 12
1985-08-11 Kongsvinger L 0-1 1190 1207 49.6% 24.8% 25.6% -11.9 11
1985-08-11 @ Brann W 1-0 1207 1190 25.6% 24.8% 49.6% +11.9 13
1985-08-11 Mjondalen D 1-1 1258 1190 58.6% 24.2% 17.2% -2.3 14
1985-08-11 @ Bryne D 1-1 1190 1258 17.2% 24.2% 58.6% +2.3 9
1985-08-11 Viking W 3-0 1156 1249 39.7% 24.9% 35.4% +24.9 12
1985-08-11 @ Molde L 0-3 1249 1156 35.4% 24.9% 39.7% -24.9 15
1985-08-11 Eik Tonsberg W 2-0 1184 1095 60.5% 24.0% 15.5% +8.7 12
1985-08-11 @ Moss L 0-2 1095 1184 15.5% 24.0% 60.5% -8.7 6
1985-08-11 Valerenga L 1-2 1277 1333 44.6% 24.9% 30.5% -10.3 16
1985-08-11 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1333 1277 30.5% 24.9% 44.6% +10.3 15
1985-08-11 Lillestrom L 0-2 1185 1347 30.3% 24.6% 45.1% -15.1 12
1985-08-11 @ Start W 2-0 1347 1185 45.1% 24.6% 30.3% +15.1 21
1985-08-18 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1219 1086 64.0% 23.5% 12.4% +6.2 15
1985-08-18 @ Kongsvinger L 1-3 1086 1219 12.4% 23.5% 64.0% -6.2 6
1985-08-18 Molde D 0-0 1362 1181 67.4% 22.8% 9.8% -3.7 22
1985-08-18 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1181 1362 9.8% 22.8% 67.4% +3.7 13
1985-08-18 Start W 4-1 1193 1170 54.1% 24.6% 21.3% +14.0 11
1985-08-18 @ Mjondalen L 1-4 1170 1193 21.3% 24.6% 54.1% -14.0 12
1985-08-18 Moss W 2-1 1224 1192 55.1% 24.5% 20.4% +5.5 17
1985-08-18 @ Viking L 1-2 1192 1224 20.4% 24.5% 55.1% -5.5 12
1985-08-19 Rosenborg L 0-1 1178 1266 40.4% 24.9% 34.7% -10.0 11
1985-08-19 @ Brann W 1-0 1266 1178 34.7% 24.9% 40.4% +10.0 18
1985-08-19 Bryne W 4-2 1343 1256 60.4% 24.1% 15.6% +6.8 17
1985-08-19 @ Valerenga L 2-4 1256 1343 15.6% 24.1% 60.4% -6.8 14
1985-08-25 Rosenborg L 1-2 1249 1276 48.4% 24.8% 26.8% -11.0 14
1985-08-25 @ Bryne W 2-1 1276 1249 26.8% 24.8% 48.4% +11.0 20
1985-08-25 Lillestrom L 0-1 1080 1358 17.9% 23.5% 58.6% -5.2 6
1985-08-25 @ Eik Tonsberg W 1-0 1358 1080 58.6% 23.5% 17.9% +5.2 24
1985-08-25 Viking W 3-1 1225 1230 51.1% 24.8% 24.2% +11.0 17
1985-08-25 @ Kongsvinger L 1-3 1230 1225 24.2% 24.8% 51.1% -11.0 17
1985-08-25 Valerenga W 2-0 1184 1350 29.8% 24.6% 45.6% +20.8 15
1985-08-25 @ Molde L 0-2 1350 1184 45.6% 24.6% 29.8% -20.8 17
1985-08-25 Mjondalen L 0-2 1187 1207 49.3% 24.8% 25.9% -22.3 12
1985-08-25 @ Moss W 2-0 1207 1187 25.9% 24.8% 49.3% +22.4 13
1985-08-25 Brann W 3-2 1156 1168 50.1% 24.8% 25.1% +6.2 14
1985-08-25 @ Start L 2-3 1168 1156 25.1% 24.8% 50.1% -6.2 11
1985-08-28 Bryne W 2-1 1162 1238 42.0% 24.9% 33.1% +8.1 13
1985-08-28 @ Brann L 1-2 1238 1162 33.1% 24.9% 42.0% -8.1 14
1985-08-28 Moss L 0-2 1364 1165 68.5% 22.5% 9.0% -30.6 24
1985-08-28 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1165 1364 9.0% 22.5% 68.5% +30.6 14
1985-08-28 Molde D 0-0 1229 1205 54.2% 24.6% 21.2% -2.0 14
1985-08-28 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1205 1229 21.2% 24.6% 54.2% +2.0 16
1985-08-28 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1287 1236 57.0% 24.4% 18.6% -2.1 21
1985-08-28 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1236 1287 18.6% 24.4% 57.0% +2.1 18
1985-08-28 Eik Tonsberg W 4-0 1219 1075 64.9% 23.4% 11.8% +12.9 19
1985-08-28 @ Viking L 0-4 1075 1219 11.8% 23.4% 64.9% -12.9 6
1985-08-29 Start W 4-3 1329 1162 66.5% 23.0% 10.5% +2.8 19
1985-08-29 @ Valerenga L 3-4 1162 1329 10.5% 23.0% 66.5% -2.8 14
1985-09-01 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1230 1238 50.6% 24.8% 24.6% -1.4 15
1985-09-01 @ Bryne D 1-1 1238 1230 24.6% 24.8% 50.6% +1.4 19
1985-09-01 Brann W 2-1 1207 1170 55.6% 24.5% 19.9% +5.4 18
1985-09-01 @ Molde L 1-2 1170 1207 19.9% 24.5% 55.6% -5.4 13
1985-09-01 Valerenga W 3-2 1195 1332 33.5% 24.8% 41.7% +9.2 16
1985-09-01 @ Moss L 2-3 1332 1195 41.7% 24.8% 33.5% -9.2 19
1985-09-01 Rosenborg L 1-2 1159 1285 35.1% 24.8% 40.1% -8.5 14
1985-09-01 @ Start W 2-1 1285 1159 40.1% 24.8% 35.1% +8.5 23
1985-09-02 Mjondalen L 1-2 1062 1227 29.9% 24.6% 45.5% -7.5 6
1985-09-02 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1227 1062 45.5% 24.6% 29.9% +7.5 16
1985-09-02 Lillestrom L 0-3 1232 1333 38.5% 24.9% 36.6% -26.5 19
1985-09-02 @ Viking W 3-0 1333 1232 36.6% 24.9% 38.5% +26.5 26
1985-09-08 Moss W 1-0 1165 1204 46.9% 24.9% 28.3% +7.6 15
1985-09-08 @ Brann L 0-1 1204 1165 28.3% 24.9% 46.9% -7.6 16
1985-09-08 Start D 0-0 1229 1151 59.5% 24.1% 16.3% -2.7 16
1985-09-08 @ Bryne D 0-0 1151 1229 16.3% 24.1% 59.5% +2.7 15
1985-09-08 Lillestrom D 0-0 1240 1360 35.9% 24.8% 39.3% +0.2 20
1985-09-08 @ Kongsvinger D 0-0 1360 1240 39.3% 24.8% 35.9% -0.2 27
1985-09-08 Viking W 3-0 1234 1205 54.8% 24.6% 20.7% +16.2 18
1985-09-08 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1205 1234 20.7% 24.6% 54.8% -16.2 19
1985-09-08 Molde W 4-1 1294 1213 59.8% 24.1% 16.1% +11.0 25
1985-09-08 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1213 1294 16.1% 24.1% 59.8% -11.0 18
1985-09-08 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1323 1054 72.4% 21.3% 6.3% +3.2 21
1985-09-08 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1054 1323 6.3% 21.3% 72.4% -3.2 6
1985-09-15 Brann L 1-2 1051 1172 35.7% 24.8% 39.5% -8.6 6
1985-09-15 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1172 1051 39.5% 24.8% 35.7% +8.6 17
1985-09-15 Mjondalen W 6-1 1359 1251 62.1% 23.8% 14.1% +15.4 29
1985-09-15 @ Lillestrom L 1-6 1251 1359 14.1% 23.8% 62.1% -15.4 18
1985-09-15 Bryne W 2-1 1202 1226 48.7% 24.8% 26.5% +6.8 20
1985-09-15 @ Molde L 1-2 1226 1202 26.5% 24.8% 48.7% -6.8 16
1985-09-15 Rosenborg L 2-3 1197 1305 37.6% 24.9% 37.6% -8.5 16
1985-09-15 @ Moss W 3-2 1305 1197 37.6% 24.9% 37.6% +8.5 27
1985-09-15 Kongsvinger W 5-1 1153 1240 40.6% 24.9% 34.5% +26.5 17
1985-09-15 @ Start L 1-5 1240 1153 34.5% 24.9% 40.6% -26.5 20
1985-09-15 Valerenga W 1-0 1189 1326 33.5% 24.8% 41.7% +10.3 21
1985-09-15 @ Viking L 0-1 1326 1189 41.7% 24.8% 33.5% -10.3 21
1985-09-29 Viking W 4-1 1181 1199 49.5% 24.8% 25.7% +16.4 19
1985-09-29 @ Brann L 1-4 1199 1181 25.7% 24.8% 49.5% -16.4 21
1985-09-29 Moss W 2-1 1219 1188 55.0% 24.5% 20.5% +5.5 18
1985-09-29 @ Bryne L 1-2 1188 1219 20.5% 24.5% 55.0% -5.5 16
1985-09-29 Mjondalen L 0-5 1213 1235 49.0% 24.8% 26.2% -52.0 20
1985-09-29 @ Kongsvinger W 5-0 1235 1213 26.2% 24.8% 49.0% +52.0 20
1985-09-29 Eik Tonsberg W 5-1 1313 1042 72.5% 21.3% 6.3% +5.7 29
1985-09-29 @ Rosenborg L 1-5 1042 1313 6.3% 21.3% 72.5% -5.7 6
1985-09-29 Molde W 3-1 1180 1208 48.2% 24.8% 27.0% +12.0 19
1985-09-29 @ Start L 1-3 1208 1180 27.0% 24.8% 48.2% -12.0 20
1985-09-29 Lillestrom D 0-0 1316 1375 44.4% 24.9% 30.8% -0.8 22
1985-09-29 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1375 1316 30.8% 24.9% 44.4% +0.8 30
1985-10-06 Bryne W 1-0 1037 1225 27.1% 24.4% 48.4% +11.6 8
1985-10-06 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-1 1225 1037 48.4% 24.4% 27.1% -11.6 18
1985-10-06 Molde W 2-1 1161 1196 47.4% 24.9% 27.8% +7.1 22
1985-10-06 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1196 1161 27.8% 24.9% 47.4% -7.1 20
1985-10-06 Brann W 1-0 1376 1197 67.2% 22.9% 10.0% +3.1 32
1985-10-06 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1197 1376 10.0% 22.9% 67.2% -3.1 19
1985-10-06 Valerenga L 0-1 1287 1315 48.3% 24.8% 26.9% -11.6 20
1985-10-06 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1315 1287 26.9% 24.8% 48.3% +11.6 24
1985-10-06 Start W 1-0 1183 1192 50.5% 24.8% 24.7% +6.9 18
1985-10-06 @ Moss L 0-1 1192 1183 24.7% 24.8% 50.5% -6.9 19
1985-10-06 Rosenborg L 0-1 1183 1319 33.7% 24.8% 41.5% -8.7 21
1985-10-06 @ Viking W 1-0 1319 1183 41.5% 24.8% 33.7% +8.7 31
1985-10-12 Mjondalen L 1-3 1194 1276 41.3% 24.9% 33.8% -16.7 19
1985-10-12 @ Brann W 3-1 1276 1194 33.8% 24.9% 41.3% +16.7 22
1985-10-12 Viking W 2-0 1213 1174 55.8% 24.5% 19.7% +10.7 20
1985-10-12 @ Bryne L 0-2 1174 1213 19.7% 24.5% 55.8% -10.7 21
1985-10-12 Moss D 1-1 1189 1189 51.6% 24.7% 23.7% -1.5 21
1985-10-12 @ Molde D 1-1 1189 1189 23.7% 24.7% 51.6% +1.5 19
1985-10-12 Eik Tonsberg W 6-1 1185 1048 64.3% 23.5% 12.2% +13.6 21
1985-10-12 @ Start L 1-6 1048 1185 12.2% 23.5% 64.3% -13.6 8
1985-10-12 Kongsvinger L 0-2 1327 1168 65.8% 23.2% 11.0% -29.4 24
1985-10-12 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1168 1327 11.0% 23.2% 65.8% +29.4 24
1985-10-13 Lillestrom W 1-0 1328 1379 45.4% 24.9% 29.7% +7.9 33
1985-10-13 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1379 1328 29.7% 24.9% 45.4% -7.9 32

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1985-08-28 8.96% Moss 1165 2 @ Lillestrom 1364 0
2 1985-10-12 10.98% Kongsvinger 1168 2 @ Valerenga 1327 0
3 1985-05-16 16.20% Molde 1177 2 @ Valerenga 1256 0
4 1985-05-12 16.82% Mjondalen 1162 3 @ Start 1234 0
5 1985-06-23 17.43% Viking 1240 2 @ Rosenborg 1305 1
6 1985-08-04 18.93% Moss 1172 3 @ Kongsvinger 1219 2
7 1985-05-19 21.10% Brann 1190 1 @ Bryne 1214 0
8 1985-05-27 21.16% Bryne 1201 3 @ Kongsvinger 1226 2
9 1985-05-16 21.19% Start 1196 4 @ Brann 1219 1
10 1985-05-12 23.88% Kongsvinger 1216 1 @ Eik Tonsberg 1214 0
11 1985-05-19 24.15% Valerenga 1230 7 @ Start 1225 0
12 1985-06-02 24.72% Brann 1201 2 @ Moss 1192 1
13 1985-05-16 25.01% Moss 1212 1 @ Mjondalen 1200 0
14 1985-08-11 25.58% Kongsvinger 1207 1 @ Brann 1190 0
15 1985-08-25 25.91% Mjondalen 1207 2 @ Moss 1187 0
16 1985-09-29 26.15% Mjondalen 1235 5 @ Kongsvinger 1213 0
17 1985-07-03 26.29% Start 1151 3 @ Eik Tonsberg 1128 0
18 1985-08-25 26.78% Rosenborg 1276 2 @ Bryne 1249 1
19 1985-10-06 26.89% Valerenga 1315 1 @ Mjondalen 1287 0
20 1985-10-06 27.10% @ Eik Tonsberg 1037 1 Bryne 1225 0
21 1985-05-05 27.43% Bryne 1214 2 @ Mjondalen 1182 1
22 1985-06-02 29.20% Rosenborg 1257 2 @ Molde 1210 0
23 1985-08-25 29.81% @ Molde 1184 2 Valerenga 1350 0
24 1985-05-12 30.33% Lillestrom 1250 3 @ Molde 1194 1
25 1985-08-11 30.48% Valerenga 1333 2 @ Rosenborg 1277 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1985-05-19 74.21 Valerenga 7 1230 24.15% @ Start 0 1225 51.10% 24.75%
2 1985-09-29 52.02 Mjondalen 5 1235 26.15% @ Kongsvinger 0 1213 49.04% 24.82%
3 1985-05-12 38.36 Mjondalen 3 1162 16.82% @ Start 0 1234 58.97% 24.20%
4 1985-05-16 35.08 @ Lillestrom 8 1268 58.42% Eik Tonsberg 0 1202 17.32% 24.26%
5 1985-07-03 32.22 Start 3 1151 26.29% @ Eik Tonsberg 0 1128 48.89% 24.82%
6 1985-05-19 31.51 @ Eik Tonsberg 4 1167 41.07% Viking 0 1250 34.03% 24.90%
7 1985-08-28 30.56 Moss 2 1165 8.96% @ Lillestrom 0 1364 68.50% 22.54%
8 1985-05-16 29.85 Start 4 1196 21.19% @ Brann 1 1219 54.22% 24.59%
9 1985-10-12 29.43 Kongsvinger 2 1168 10.98% @ Valerenga 0 1327 65.85% 23.16%
10 1985-06-09 27.07 @ Kongsvinger 6 1217 58.09% Start 0 1154 17.62% 24.29%
11 1985-05-16 26.71 Molde 2 1177 16.20% @ Valerenga 0 1256 59.67% 24.13%
12 1985-09-15 26.53 @ Start 5 1153 40.62% Kongsvinger 1 1240 34.49% 24.90%
13 1985-09-02 26.49 Lillestrom 3 1333 36.60% @ Viking 0 1232 38.53% 24.87%
14 1985-06-23 25.64 @ Bryne 6 1229 59.28% Eik Tonsberg 0 1153 16.55% 24.17%
15 1985-06-16 25.53 @ Mjondalen 5 1170 42.29% Kongsvinger 1 1244 32.81% 24.90%
16 1985-08-11 24.88 @ Molde 3 1156 39.66% Viking 0 1249 35.45% 24.89%
17 1985-05-13 24.79 @ Rosenborg 4 1232 50.19% Brann 0 1244 25.03% 24.78%
18 1985-08-07 23.44 @ Valerenga 6 1310 61.09% Brann 0 1214 14.95% 23.96%
19 1985-08-25 22.35 Mjondalen 2 1207 25.91% @ Moss 0 1187 49.28% 24.81%
20 1985-06-09 22.30 @ Bryne 4 1206 53.38% Molde 0 1189 21.99% 24.64%
21 1985-04-27 22.16 @ Brann 3 1221 44.63% Valerenga 0 1277 30.47% 24.89%
22 1985-06-16 21.94 Rosenborg 4 1283 37.49% @ Eik Tonsberg 1 1175 37.65% 24.86%
23 1985-06-24 21.37 @ Start 3 1129 46.04% Moss 0 1175 29.08% 24.88%
24 1985-06-02 21.02 Rosenborg 2 1257 29.20% @ Molde 0 1210 45.92% 24.88%
25 1985-08-25 20.83 @ Molde 2 1184 29.81% Valerenga 0 1350 45.59% 24.60%