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1984 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Valerenga

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valerenga

4.64 points above expected

32 points · 27.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Strindheim

6.25 points below expected

15 points · 21.25 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valerenga 22 13 6 3 32 40 14 +26 27.36 +4.64
2 Viking 22 9 7 6 25 33 23 +10 21.72 +3.28
3 Start 22 10 5 7 25 33 29 +4 24.34 +0.66
4 Bryne 22 7 10 5 24 37 36 +1 21.00 +3.00
5 Lillestrom 22 8 7 7 23 39 30 +9 24.58 -1.58
6 Rosenborg 22 8 7 7 23 36 37 -1 22.20 +0.80
7 Kongsvinger 22 9 5 8 23 29 32 -3 21.35 +1.65
8 Molde 22 7 7 8 21 36 41 -5 18.84 +2.16
9 Eik Tonsberg 22 8 3 11 19 30 36 -6 21.68 -2.68
10 Moss 22 4 9 9 17 26 30 -4 20.69 -3.69
11 Fredrikstad 22 5 7 10 17 23 35 -12 18.99 -1.99
12 Strindheim 22 5 5 12 15 18 37 -19 21.25 -6.25

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valerenga 1356 32 27.36 +4.64 92.6% 13 21 25 27 30 33 40
Start 1277 25 24.34 +0.66 62.0% 9 18 22 24 27 31 38
Lillestrom 1261 23 24.58 -1.58 38.4% 11 18 22 25 27 31 37
Viking 1251 25 21.72 +3.28 84.3% 8 16 19 22 24 28 36
Rosenborg 1235 23 22.20 +0.80 63.6% 9 16 20 22 25 28 35
Kongsvinger 1219 23 21.35 +1.65 71.3% 7 15 19 21 24 27 37
Bryne 1217 24 21.00 +3.00 82.0% 7 15 18 21 24 27 34
Eik Tonsberg 1215 19 21.68 -2.68 28.3% 8 16 19 22 24 28 35
Moss 1210 17 20.69 -3.69 19.9% 8 15 18 21 23 27 34
Molde 1186 21 18.84 +2.16 75.8% 5 13 16 19 21 25 32
Strindheim 1175 15 21.25 -6.25 6.2% 7 15 19 21 24 27 36
Fredrikstad 1171 17 18.99 -1.99 34.9% 6 13 16 19 22 25 34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRY ET FRE KON LIL MOL MOS ROS STA STR VAL VIK
Bryne —
2-0-0
2.74
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
3.05
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.45
0-2-0
2.28
0-1-1
2.52
1-1-0
1.89
0-1-1
2.62
Eik Tonsberg
0-0-2
2.64
 —
0-1-1
3.11
1-1-0
2.71
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
2.63
0-1-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.82
0-0-2
2.19
2-0-0
2.61
Fredrikstad
0-1-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.28
 —
1-1-0
2.33
0-1-1
2.02
0-0-2
2.80
1-1-0
2.33
0-1-1
2.39
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
1.77
1-1-0
2.32
Kongsvinger
1-0-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.67
0-1-1
3.05
 —
1-0-1
2.30
0-1-1
3.03
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.30
2-0-0
2.49
1-1-0
1.81
1-0-1
2.68
Lillestrom
1-1-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.00
1-1-0
3.37
1-0-1
3.09
 —
1-1-0
3.38
1-1-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
3.25
0-0-2
2.38
0-1-1
3.09
Molde
1-1-0
2.33
1-0-1
2.30
2-0-0
2.58
1-1-0
2.35
0-1-1
2.01
 —
1-1-0
2.40
0-1-1
2.30
0-0-2
2.05
0-2-0
2.47
0-0-2
1.74
1-0-1
2.33
Moss
0-1-1
2.66
0-0-2
2.75
0-1-1
3.06
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.98
 —
2-0-0
2.37
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.45
0-2-0
1.81
1-1-0
2.55
Rosenborg
0-1-1
2.93
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.99
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.51
1-1-0
3.09
0-0-2
3.02
 —
1-1-0
2.40
2-0-0
2.75
0-0-2
2.09
0-1-1
2.81
Start
0-2-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
3.36
1-0-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.34
1-1-0
3.19
0-1-1
2.98
 —
2-0-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-2
3.03
Strindheim
1-1-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.89
1-1-0
2.14
0-2-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.93
0-0-2
2.63
0-0-2
2.40
 —
0-0-2
1.81
0-1-1
2.52
Valerenga
0-1-1
3.52
2-0-0
3.20
2-0-0
3.64
0-1-1
3.59
2-0-0
3.00
2-0-0
3.68
0-2-0
3.61
2-0-0
3.31
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.59
 —
0-1-1
3.56
Viking
1-1-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.77
0-1-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.70
1-1-0
2.29
1-0-1
3.06
0-1-1
2.84
1-1-0
2.57
2-0-0
2.35
1-1-0
2.86
1-1-0
1.85
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +5.6
Allowed 0.51 -4.5
Differential 0.87 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%7.20%5.30%4.17%1.14%0.38%24.24%
17.20%12.88%9.09%3.03%0.38%1.14%33.71%
25.30%9.09%9.85%0.76%1.14%0.38%26.52%
34.17%3.03%0.76%—0.38%0.38%8.71%
41.14%0.38%1.14%0.38%0.76%0.38%4.17%
5+0.38%1.14%0.38%0.38%0.38%—2.65%
Total24.24%33.71%26.52%8.71%4.17%2.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.26 1.26 1.79
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
14.55%27.27%9.09%———40.91%
24.55%9.09%13.64%——4.55%31.82%
3—4.55%4.55%——4.55%13.64%
4———————
5+————4.55%—4.55%
Total13.64%45.45%27.27%—4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.64 +0.05
SD 1.13 1.40 1.17
CV 0.67 0.85 —
Max 5 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
19.09%4.55%18.18%9.09%——40.91%
24.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%31.82%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.64 -0.27
SD 1.00 1.14 1.58
CV 0.73 0.69 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%9.09%9.09%——36.36%
1—18.18%4.55%———22.73%
2—22.73%13.64%—4.55%—40.91%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—59.09%27.27%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.59 -0.55
SD 0.90 0.85 1.26
CV 0.86 0.54 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
113.64%13.64%4.55%—4.55%4.55%40.91%
2—18.18%9.09%—4.55%—31.82%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%50.00%18.18%—9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.45 -0.14
SD 0.89 1.34 1.64
CV 0.68 0.92 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
19.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%——40.91%
24.55%—13.64%———18.18%
3—4.55%————4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
Total22.73%27.27%40.91%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.36 +0.41
SD 1.63 0.95 2.04
CV 0.92 0.70 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—9.09%——18.18%
19.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%—4.55%40.91%
2—4.55%9.09%—4.55%—18.18%
39.09%—————9.09%
4——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total22.73%22.73%18.18%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.86 -0.23
SD 1.40 1.49 1.90
CV 0.85 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%—9.09%——31.82%
1—13.64%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
29.09%—13.64%———22.73%
39.09%———4.55%—13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.36 -0.18
SD 1.05 1.22 1.59
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%——4.55%22.73%
1—18.18%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
213.64%4.55%9.09%———27.27%
3—9.09%————9.09%
44.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%40.91%22.73%——13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.68 -0.05
SD 1.33 1.96 2.50
CV 0.81 1.17 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%———4.55%—18.18%
19.09%4.55%18.18%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
34.55%—————4.55%
4——9.09%———9.09%
5+———————
Total31.82%22.73%31.82%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.32 +0.18
SD 1.14 1.17 1.56
CV 0.76 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%18.18%13.64%4.55%—50.00%
113.64%9.09%9.09%———31.82%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%31.82%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.68 -0.86
SD 1.10 1.21 1.61
CV 1.34 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
113.64%——4.55%——18.18%
213.64%—13.64%———27.27%
318.18%—4.55%———22.73%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total68.18%4.55%22.73%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.64 +1.18
SD 1.40 1.00 1.84
CV 0.77 1.57 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
14.55%18.18%9.09%———31.82%
29.09%13.64%4.55%———27.27%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total22.73%54.55%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.05 +0.45
SD 1.74 0.79 1.97
CV 1.16 0.75 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 32 27.36 +4.64
2 Viking 25 21.72 +3.28
3 Bryne 24 21.00 +3.00
4 Molde 21 18.84 +2.16
5 Kongsvinger 23 21.35 +1.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Strindheim 15 21.25 -6.25
2 Moss 17 20.69 -3.69
3 Eik Tonsberg 19 21.68 -2.68
4 Fredrikstad 17 18.99 -1.99
5 Lillestrom 23 24.58 -1.58

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Start 6 Jul 1 – Aug 26 1 in 167
2 Viking 4 Aug 26 – Sep 16 1 in 65
3 Kongsvinger 4 Jul 1 – Aug 15 1 in 53
4 Bryne 3 May 13 – May 20 1 in 34
5 Valerenga 4 Apr 29 – May 16 1 in 31

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strindheim 8 Aug 12 – Sep 30 1 in 3,213
2 Lillestrom 4 Aug 15 – Sep 2 1 in 106
3 Eik Tonsberg 4 Jun 3 – Jun 24 1 in 96
4 Start 3 Sep 16 – Oct 7 1 in 38
5 Moss 3 Jul 1 – Aug 12 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bryne 9 May 13 – Jul 1 1 in 58
2 Valerenga 14 May 28 – Sep 16 1 in 33
3 Fredrikstad 5 Sep 2 – Oct 7 1 in 18
4 Rosenborg 7 Apr 29 – Jun 3 1 in 16
5 Start 8 Jul 1 – Sep 9 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strindheim 10 Aug 12 – Oct 14 1 in 46
2 Rosenborg 8 May 28 – Aug 12 1 in 40
3 Fredrikstad 11 May 16 – Aug 15 1 in 27
4 Lillestrom 6 Aug 12 – Sep 9 1 in 22
5 Start 6 May 20 – Jun 25 1 in 20

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Valerenga46.40%19.93%11.39%7.32%5.31%3.70%2.08%1.69%1.03%0.73%0.28%0.14%
Viking4.47%7.65%8.98%9.77%10.11%10.03%10.46%9.49%8.44%8.09%7.15%5.36%
Start13.05%16.46%14.36%12.38%10.68%8.40%7.07%5.49%4.51%3.49%2.60%1.51%
Bryne2.70%5.57%6.96%8.18%8.64%9.69%9.87%10.28%10.88%9.66%9.43%8.14%
Lillestrom15.07%18.21%14.91%12.33%9.14%8.16%6.53%5.30%4.13%3.21%1.96%1.05%
Rosenborg5.20%7.72%9.76%9.86%10.67%10.39%9.87%8.79%8.48%7.48%6.86%4.92%
Kongsvinger3.30%5.54%7.54%8.54%9.43%9.78%9.51%10.02%10.24%9.69%8.88%7.53%
Molde0.79%1.87%3.03%3.96%5.30%6.37%6.83%9.31%11.01%13.08%16.50%21.95%
Eik Tonsberg3.30%6.38%8.57%8.57%9.57%9.62%9.92%9.93%9.53%9.50%8.22%6.89%
Moss2.41%4.13%5.45%7.12%7.87%9.05%10.07%10.59%10.80%11.44%10.86%10.21%
Fredrikstad0.79%1.76%2.96%4.06%4.64%5.87%7.98%8.70%10.95%13.04%16.73%22.52%
Strindheim2.52%4.78%6.09%7.91%8.64%8.94%9.81%10.41%10.00%10.59%10.53%9.78%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.88%
Slight Edge
41.67%29.55%28.79%
Elo Value
Home Edge
156 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
045.00400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.38 goals
Neutral
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
46%
Valerenga, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.32/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.01 * Some Luck: 3.01 to 4.51 * Lucky: 4.51 to 6.01 * Wild Swing: 6.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.18 * Close: 2.18 to 3.27 * Off: 3.27 to 4.36 * Way Off: 4.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.11 points
Some Luck
03.769
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Pinpoint
02.726
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
92.57%
Valerenga
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
6.19%
Strindheim
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.98
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
74%
Clear Edge
50%74%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Frequent
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.69
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.38
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.52
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.84
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.041
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Valerenga 98.85% 0.73% 0.42%
Lillestrom 93.78% 3.21% 3.01%
Start 92.40% 3.49% 4.11%
Rosenborg 80.74% 7.48% 11.78%
Viking 79.40% 8.09% 12.51%
Eik Tonsberg 75.39% 9.50% 15.11%
Kongsvinger 73.90% 9.69% 16.41%
Bryne 72.77% 9.66% 17.57%
Strindheim 69.10% 10.59% 20.31%
Moss 67.49% 11.44% 21.07%
Molde 48.47% 13.08% 38.45%
Fredrikstad 47.71% 13.04% 39.25%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1984-04-29 Valerenga L 0-1 1232 1280 37.1% 31.3% 31.6% -5.5 0
1984-04-29 @ Eik Tonsberg W 1-0 1280 1232 31.6% 31.3% 37.1% +5.5 2
1984-04-29 Rosenborg L 0-2 1209 1239 39.6% 31.3% 29.1% -10.8 0
1984-04-29 @ Fredrikstad W 2-0 1239 1209 29.1% 31.3% 39.6% +10.8 2
1984-04-29 Moss D 2-2 1252 1216 47.8% 30.7% 21.5% -0.6 1
1984-04-29 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1216 1252 21.5% 30.7% 47.8% +0.6 1
1984-04-29 Start L 0-3 1179 1272 30.9% 31.1% 38.0% -13.2 0
1984-04-29 @ Molde W 3-0 1272 1179 38.0% 31.1% 30.9% +13.2 2
1984-04-29 Bryne D 1-1 1251 1205 49.0% 30.5% 20.5% -0.8 1
1984-04-29 @ Strindheim D 1-1 1205 1251 20.5% 30.5% 49.0% +0.9 1
1984-04-29 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1220 1217 43.8% 31.1% 25.1% +4.2 2
1984-04-29 @ Viking L 0-1 1217 1220 25.1% 31.1% 43.8% -4.2 0
1984-05-06 Lillestrom L 2-5 1206 1251 37.5% 31.3% 31.1% -11.1 1
1984-05-06 @ Bryne W 5-2 1251 1206 31.1% 31.3% 37.5% +11.0 3
1984-05-06 Strindheim W 3-0 1213 1251 38.6% 31.3% 30.1% +13.0 2
1984-05-06 @ Kongsvinger L 0-3 1251 1213 30.1% 31.3% 38.6% -13.0 1
1984-05-06 Molde D 2-2 1217 1166 49.5% 30.4% 20.0% -0.7 2
1984-05-06 @ Moss D 2-2 1166 1217 20.0% 30.4% 49.5% +0.6 1
1984-05-06 Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1285 1227 50.4% 30.3% 19.4% -6.6 2
1984-05-06 @ Start W 2-1 1227 1285 19.4% 30.3% 50.4% +6.6 2
1984-05-07 Viking D 0-0 1249 1224 46.6% 30.8% 22.6% -0.8 3
1984-05-07 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1224 1249 22.6% 30.8% 46.6% +0.8 3
1984-05-07 Fredrikstad W 2-0 1286 1198 53.6% 29.6% 16.8% +5.7 4
1984-05-07 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1198 1286 16.8% 29.6% 53.6% -5.7 0
1984-05-13 Kongsvinger W 2-0 1195 1226 39.4% 31.3% 29.3% +8.8 3
1984-05-13 @ Bryne L 0-2 1226 1195 29.3% 31.3% 39.4% -8.8 2
1984-05-13 Rosenborg D 1-1 1234 1249 41.5% 31.2% 27.2% -0.4 3
1984-05-13 @ Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1249 1234 27.2% 31.2% 41.5% +0.4 4
1984-05-13 Viking W 2-1 1192 1225 39.2% 31.3% 29.5% +4.4 2
1984-05-13 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1225 1192 29.5% 31.3% 39.2% -4.4 3
1984-05-13 Start W 4-0 1262 1278 41.3% 31.3% 27.4% +15.9 5
1984-05-13 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1278 1262 27.4% 31.3% 41.3% -15.8 2
1984-05-13 Valerenga L 0-1 1167 1291 26.9% 30.7% 42.4% -4.3 1
1984-05-13 @ Molde W 1-0 1291 1167 42.4% 30.7% 26.9% +4.3 6
1984-05-13 Moss W 1-0 1238 1216 46.1% 30.9% 23.0% +3.9 3
1984-05-13 @ Strindheim L 0-1 1216 1238 23.0% 30.9% 46.1% -3.9 2
1984-05-16 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1218 1197 46.1% 30.9% 23.1% -0.7 3
1984-05-16 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1197 1218 23.1% 30.9% 46.1% +0.7 3
1984-05-16 Bryne L 1-2 1212 1204 44.5% 31.1% 24.5% -5.9 2
1984-05-16 @ Moss W 2-1 1204 1212 24.5% 31.1% 44.5% +5.9 5
1984-05-16 Molde W 3-1 1249 1162 53.5% 29.6% 16.9% +4.9 6
1984-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1162 1249 16.9% 29.6% 53.5% -4.9 1
1984-05-16 Strindheim W 2-0 1263 1242 46.1% 30.9% 23.0% +7.3 4
1984-05-16 @ Start L 0-2 1242 1263 23.0% 30.9% 46.1% -7.3 3
1984-05-16 Lillestrom W 3-0 1296 1278 45.7% 30.9% 23.4% +10.8 8
1984-05-16 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1278 1296 23.4% 30.9% 45.7% -10.8 5
1984-05-16 Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1221 1233 41.8% 31.2% 26.9% -5.7 3
1984-05-16 @ Viking W 2-1 1233 1221 26.9% 31.2% 41.8% +5.7 5
1984-05-20 Valerenga W 3-1 1210 1306 30.4% 31.1% 38.6% +9.2 7
1984-05-20 @ Bryne L 1-3 1306 1210 38.6% 31.1% 30.4% -9.2 8
1984-05-20 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1239 1217 46.2% 30.9% 22.9% +3.9 7
1984-05-20 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-1 1217 1239 22.9% 30.9% 46.2% -3.9 3
1984-05-20 Viking D 1-1 1267 1215 49.7% 30.4% 19.9% -0.9 6
1984-05-20 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1215 1267 19.9% 30.4% 49.7% +0.9 4
1984-05-20 Fredrikstad W 3-0 1157 1197 38.2% 31.3% 30.5% +13.1 3
1984-05-20 @ Molde L 0-3 1197 1157 30.5% 31.3% 38.2% -13.1 3
1984-05-20 Start D 0-0 1206 1270 34.9% 31.3% 33.8% -0.0 3
1984-05-20 @ Moss D 0-0 1270 1206 33.8% 31.3% 34.9% +0.0 5
1984-05-21 Rosenborg L 0-2 1234 1254 40.9% 31.3% 27.8% -11.1 3
1984-05-21 @ Strindheim W 2-0 1254 1234 27.8% 31.3% 40.9% +11.1 8
1984-05-27 Eik Tonsberg D 2-2 1184 1243 35.6% 31.3% 33.1% -0.0 4
1984-05-27 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1243 1184 33.1% 31.3% 35.6% +0.0 8
1984-05-27 Moss W 1-0 1213 1206 44.3% 31.1% 24.6% +4.1 5
1984-05-27 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1206 1213 24.6% 31.1% 44.3% -4.1 3
1984-05-27 Bryne D 2-2 1270 1219 49.6% 30.4% 20.0% -0.7 6
1984-05-27 @ Start D 2-2 1219 1270 20.0% 30.4% 49.6% +0.7 8
1984-05-28 Lillestrom D 2-2 1265 1266 43.3% 31.1% 25.6% -0.4 9
1984-05-28 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1266 1265 25.6% 31.1% 43.3% +0.4 7
1984-05-28 Strindheim W 3-0 1297 1223 52.1% 29.9% 17.9% +8.7 10
1984-05-28 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1223 1297 17.9% 29.9% 52.1% -8.7 3
1984-06-03 Rosenborg D 1-1 1220 1265 37.5% 31.3% 31.2% -0.2 9
1984-06-03 @ Bryne D 1-1 1265 1220 31.2% 31.3% 37.5% +0.2 10
1984-06-03 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1267 1184 53.0% 29.7% 17.2% +3.1 9
1984-06-03 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1184 1267 17.2% 29.7% 53.0% -3.1 4
1984-06-03 Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1170 1243 33.7% 31.3% 35.1% +5.0 5
1984-06-03 @ Molde L 1-2 1243 1170 35.1% 31.3% 33.7% -5.0 8
1984-06-03 Valerenga D 0-0 1202 1306 29.4% 31.0% 39.6% +0.3 4
1984-06-03 @ Moss D 0-0 1306 1202 39.6% 31.0% 29.4% -0.3 11
1984-06-03 Kongsvinger L 1-2 1269 1217 49.7% 30.4% 19.9% -6.5 6
1984-06-03 @ Start W 2-1 1217 1269 19.9% 30.4% 49.7% +6.5 7
1984-06-04 Viking D 0-0 1214 1216 43.3% 31.1% 25.6% -0.6 4
1984-06-04 @ Strindheim D 0-0 1216 1214 25.6% 31.1% 43.3% +0.6 5
1984-06-11 Lillestrom L 0-1 1238 1270 39.3% 31.3% 29.4% -5.7 8
1984-06-11 @ Eik Tonsberg W 1-0 1270 1238 29.4% 31.3% 39.3% +5.7 11
1984-06-11 Strindheim L 0-1 1181 1214 39.2% 31.3% 29.5% -5.7 4
1984-06-11 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1214 1181 29.5% 31.3% 39.2% +5.7 6
1984-06-11 Molde D 1-1 1224 1175 49.3% 30.5% 20.3% -0.9 8
1984-06-11 @ Kongsvinger D 1-1 1175 1224 20.3% 30.5% 49.3% +0.9 6
1984-06-11 Moss L 0-2 1265 1202 50.9% 30.2% 18.9% -13.3 10
1984-06-11 @ Rosenborg W 2-0 1202 1265 18.9% 30.2% 50.9% +13.3 6
1984-06-11 Start D 0-0 1306 1263 48.6% 30.6% 20.8% -0.9 12
1984-06-11 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1263 1306 20.8% 30.6% 48.6% +0.9 7
1984-06-11 Bryne D 1-1 1216 1219 43.1% 31.2% 25.8% -0.5 6
1984-06-11 @ Viking D 1-1 1219 1216 25.8% 31.2% 43.1% +0.5 10
1984-06-17 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1220 1175 48.8% 30.5% 20.6% +3.6 12
1984-06-17 @ Bryne L 0-1 1175 1220 20.6% 30.5% 48.8% -3.6 4
1984-06-17 Molde W 5-1 1275 1176 54.7% 29.3% 16.0% +8.6 13
1984-06-17 @ Lillestrom L 1-5 1176 1275 16.0% 29.3% 54.7% -8.6 6
1984-06-17 Viking D 1-1 1216 1216 43.4% 31.1% 25.4% -0.5 7
1984-06-17 @ Moss D 1-1 1216 1216 25.4% 31.1% 43.4% +0.5 7
1984-06-17 Rosenborg D 1-1 1264 1252 45.0% 31.0% 24.0% -0.6 8
1984-06-17 @ Start D 1-1 1252 1264 24.0% 31.0% 45.0% +0.6 11
1984-06-18 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1220 1232 41.8% 31.2% 26.9% +7.1 8
1984-06-18 @ Strindheim L 1-3 1232 1220 26.9% 31.2% 41.8% -7.1 8
1984-06-18 Kongsvinger D 2-2 1305 1223 53.0% 29.8% 17.3% -0.8 13
1984-06-18 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1223 1305 17.3% 29.8% 53.0% +0.8 9
1984-06-24 Bryne L 1-2 1225 1224 43.6% 31.1% 25.2% -5.8 8
1984-06-24 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1224 1225 25.2% 31.1% 43.6% +5.8 14
1984-06-24 Kongsvinger W 5-1 1284 1224 50.6% 30.2% 19.1% +10.0 15
1984-06-24 @ Lillestrom L 1-5 1224 1284 19.1% 30.2% 50.6% -10.0 9
1984-06-24 Strindheim D 4-4 1168 1227 35.5% 31.3% 33.1% -0.0 7
1984-06-24 @ Molde D 4-4 1227 1168 33.1% 31.3% 35.5% +0.0 9
1984-06-25 Moss D 2-2 1172 1215 37.7% 31.3% 30.9% -0.1 5
1984-06-25 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1215 1172 30.9% 31.3% 37.7% +0.1 8
1984-06-25 Valerenga L 0-5 1252 1304 36.6% 31.3% 32.1% -23.9 11
1984-06-25 @ Rosenborg W 5-0 1304 1252 32.1% 31.3% 36.6% +23.9 15
1984-06-25 Start W 3-1 1216 1263 37.3% 31.3% 31.4% +8.0 9
1984-06-25 @ Viking L 1-3 1263 1216 31.4% 31.3% 37.3% -8.0 8
1984-06-28 Molde L 0-1 1224 1168 50.2% 30.3% 19.5% -7.0 9
1984-06-28 @ Viking W 1-0 1168 1224 19.5% 30.3% 50.2% +7.0 9
1984-07-01 Molde D 1-1 1229 1175 50.0% 30.3% 19.7% -0.9 15
1984-07-01 @ Bryne D 1-1 1175 1229 19.7% 30.3% 50.0% +0.9 10
1984-07-01 Rosenborg W 2-1 1214 1228 41.6% 31.2% 27.2% +4.2 11
1984-07-01 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1228 1214 27.2% 31.2% 41.6% -4.1 11
1984-07-01 Eik Tonsberg L 3-4 1215 1219 43.0% 31.2% 25.9% -5.3 8
1984-07-01 @ Moss W 4-3 1219 1215 25.9% 31.2% 43.0% +5.3 10
1984-07-01 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1255 1172 53.1% 29.7% 17.2% +3.1 10
1984-07-01 @ Start L 0-1 1172 1255 17.2% 29.7% 53.1% -3.1 5
1984-07-04 Lillestrom W 2-1 1227 1294 34.4% 31.3% 34.3% +4.9 11
1984-07-04 @ Strindheim L 1-2 1294 1227 34.3% 31.3% 34.4% -4.9 15
1984-07-04 Viking D 2-2 1328 1217 55.9% 29.0% 15.1% -0.9 16
1984-07-04 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1217 1328 15.1% 29.0% 55.9% +0.9 10
1984-07-08 Strindheim L 0-1 1228 1232 43.1% 31.2% 25.8% -6.1 15
1984-07-08 @ Bryne W 1-0 1232 1228 25.8% 31.2% 43.1% +6.1 13
1984-07-08 Viking W 1-0 1218 1218 43.4% 31.1% 25.5% +4.2 13
1984-07-08 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1218 1218 25.5% 31.1% 43.4% -4.2 10
1984-07-08 Molde W 4-2 1258 1175 53.0% 29.7% 17.2% +4.5 12
1984-07-08 @ Start L 2-4 1175 1258 17.2% 29.7% 53.0% -4.5 10
1984-07-18 Lillestrom L 1-3 1210 1289 32.7% 31.2% 36.1% -8.2 8
1984-07-18 @ Moss W 3-1 1289 1210 36.1% 31.2% 32.7% +8.2 17
1984-07-18 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1224 1169 50.1% 30.3% 19.6% -0.9 12
1984-07-18 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1169 1224 19.6% 30.3% 50.1% +0.9 6
1984-07-18 Eik Tonsberg W 4-0 1327 1224 55.1% 29.2% 15.7% +10.1 18
1984-07-18 @ Valerenga L 0-4 1224 1327 15.7% 29.2% 55.1% -10.1 10
1984-08-12 Start L 1-2 1214 1263 37.0% 31.3% 31.6% -5.2 10
1984-08-12 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1263 1214 31.6% 31.3% 37.0% +5.2 14
1984-08-12 Valerenga L 0-3 1170 1337 22.2% 29.9% 47.9% -10.2 6
1984-08-12 @ Fredrikstad W 3-0 1337 1170 47.9% 29.9% 22.2% +10.2 20
1984-08-12 Bryne D 1-1 1297 1222 52.2% 29.9% 17.9% -1.0 18
1984-08-12 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1222 1297 17.9% 29.9% 52.2% +1.0 16
1984-08-12 Moss W 3-0 1171 1202 39.4% 31.3% 29.2% +12.7 12
1984-08-12 @ Molde L 0-3 1202 1171 29.2% 31.3% 39.4% -12.7 8
1984-08-12 Kongsvinger L 1-2 1238 1222 45.4% 31.0% 23.6% -6.0 13
1984-08-12 @ Strindheim W 2-1 1222 1238 23.6% 31.0% 45.4% +6.0 15
1984-08-12 Rosenborg W 8-1 1214 1223 42.3% 31.2% 26.5% +21.6 12
1984-08-12 @ Viking L 1-8 1223 1214 26.5% 31.2% 42.3% -21.6 12
1984-08-15 Bryne W 2-1 1228 1223 44.0% 31.1% 24.9% +3.9 17
1984-08-15 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1223 1228 24.9% 31.1% 44.0% -3.9 16
1984-08-15 Strindheim W 3-0 1189 1232 37.8% 31.3% 30.8% +13.2 10
1984-08-15 @ Moss L 0-3 1232 1189 30.8% 31.3% 37.8% -13.2 13
1984-08-15 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1202 1209 42.5% 31.2% 26.3% +7.0 14
1984-08-15 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1209 1202 26.3% 31.2% 42.5% -7.0 10
1984-08-15 Lillestrom W 2-1 1268 1296 39.8% 31.3% 28.9% +4.3 16
1984-08-15 @ Start L 1-2 1296 1268 28.9% 31.3% 39.8% -4.3 18
1984-08-15 Molde W 3-0 1347 1184 60.8% 27.3% 11.9% +5.9 22
1984-08-15 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1184 1347 11.9% 27.3% 60.8% -5.9 12
1984-08-15 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1236 1159 52.4% 29.9% 17.8% -1.0 13
1984-08-15 @ Viking D 1-1 1159 1236 17.8% 29.9% 52.4% +1.0 7
1984-08-19 Moss D 1-1 1219 1202 45.6% 30.9% 23.4% -0.6 17
1984-08-19 @ Bryne D 1-1 1202 1219 23.4% 30.9% 45.6% +0.6 11
1984-08-19 Viking W 2-0 1202 1235 39.2% 31.3% 29.5% +8.8 12
1984-08-19 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-2 1235 1202 29.5% 31.3% 39.2% -8.8 13
1984-08-19 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1160 1232 33.8% 31.3% 34.9% +5.0 9
1984-08-19 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1232 1160 34.9% 31.3% 33.8% -4.9 17
1984-08-19 Valerenga L 0-2 1292 1353 35.2% 31.3% 33.5% -10.0 18
1984-08-19 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1353 1292 33.5% 31.3% 35.2% +10.0 24
1984-08-19 Rosenborg D 2-2 1178 1209 39.4% 31.3% 29.3% -0.2 13
1984-08-19 @ Molde D 2-2 1209 1178 29.3% 31.3% 39.4% +0.2 15
1984-08-19 Start L 0-1 1218 1272 36.3% 31.3% 32.4% -5.4 13
1984-08-19 @ Strindheim W 1-0 1272 1218 32.4% 31.3% 36.3% +5.4 18
1984-08-26 Molde L 2-4 1165 1178 41.9% 31.2% 26.9% -8.8 9
1984-08-26 @ Fredrikstad W 4-2 1178 1165 26.9% 31.2% 41.9% +8.8 15
1984-08-26 Eik Tonsberg D 2-2 1227 1211 45.4% 31.0% 23.6% -0.5 18
1984-08-26 @ Kongsvinger D 2-2 1211 1227 23.6% 31.0% 45.4% +0.5 13
1984-08-26 Moss W 2-1 1278 1203 52.2% 29.9% 17.9% +3.0 20
1984-08-26 @ Start L 1-2 1203 1278 17.9% 29.9% 52.2% -3.0 11
1984-08-26 Bryne D 2-2 1363 1219 59.1% 28.0% 13.0% -1.1 25
1984-08-26 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1219 1363 13.0% 28.0% 59.1% +1.1 18
1984-08-26 Lillestrom W 2-1 1226 1282 36.0% 31.3% 32.7% +4.7 15
1984-08-26 @ Viking L 1-2 1282 1226 32.7% 31.3% 36.0% -4.7 18
1984-08-27 Strindheim W 4-0 1209 1213 42.9% 31.2% 25.9% +15.2 17
1984-08-27 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1213 1209 25.9% 31.2% 42.9% -15.2 13
1984-09-02 Start D 0-0 1220 1281 35.3% 31.3% 33.4% -0.1 19
1984-09-02 @ Bryne D 0-0 1281 1220 33.4% 31.3% 35.3% +0.1 21
1984-09-02 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1211 1157 50.0% 30.3% 19.7% -6.6 13
1984-09-02 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1157 1211 19.7% 30.3% 50.0% +6.5 11
1984-09-02 Rosenborg L 0-2 1277 1224 49.8% 30.4% 19.8% -13.0 18
1984-09-02 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1224 1277 19.8% 30.4% 49.8% +13.0 19
1984-09-02 Viking L 1-3 1186 1231 37.6% 31.3% 31.1% -9.0 15
1984-09-02 @ Molde W 3-1 1231 1186 31.1% 31.3% 37.6% +9.0 17
1984-09-02 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1200 1226 40.0% 31.3% 28.7% -0.3 12
1984-09-02 @ Moss D 1-1 1226 1200 28.7% 31.3% 40.0% +0.3 19
1984-09-03 Valerenga L 0-2 1198 1362 22.6% 29.9% 47.5% -7.1 13
1984-09-03 @ Strindheim W 2-0 1362 1198 47.5% 29.9% 22.6% +7.1 27
1984-09-09 Molde W 2-1 1205 1177 46.9% 30.8% 22.3% +3.6 15
1984-09-09 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1177 1205 22.3% 30.8% 46.9% -3.6 15
1984-09-09 Lillestrom D 1-1 1163 1264 29.8% 31.0% 39.2% +0.3 12
1984-09-09 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1264 1163 39.2% 31.0% 29.8% -0.2 19
1984-09-09 Start L 2-4 1227 1281 36.3% 31.3% 32.4% -7.9 19
1984-09-09 @ Kongsvinger W 4-2 1281 1227 32.4% 31.3% 36.3% +7.9 23
1984-09-09 Bryne L 4-5 1237 1220 45.6% 30.9% 23.4% -5.5 19
1984-09-09 @ Rosenborg W 5-4 1220 1237 23.4% 30.9% 45.6% +5.5 21
1984-09-09 Moss D 0-0 1369 1200 61.4% 27.1% 11.6% -1.8 28
1984-09-09 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1200 1369 11.6% 27.1% 61.4% +1.8 13
1984-09-09 Strindheim W 2-0 1240 1191 49.3% 30.5% 20.2% +6.6 19
1984-09-09 @ Viking L 0-2 1191 1240 20.2% 30.5% 49.3% -6.6 13
1984-09-16 Viking L 1-2 1225 1246 40.8% 31.3% 28.0% -5.5 21
1984-09-16 @ Bryne W 2-1 1246 1225 28.0% 31.3% 40.8% +5.5 21
1984-09-16 Eik Tonsberg W 2-0 1264 1208 50.1% 30.3% 19.6% +6.5 21
1984-09-16 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1208 1264 19.6% 30.3% 50.1% -6.5 15
1984-09-16 Kongsvinger W 1-0 1174 1219 37.5% 31.3% 31.2% +4.8 17
1984-09-16 @ Molde L 0-1 1219 1174 31.2% 31.3% 37.5% -4.9 19
1984-09-16 Rosenborg W 2-0 1201 1232 39.5% 31.3% 29.2% +8.7 15
1984-09-16 @ Moss L 0-2 1232 1201 29.2% 31.3% 39.5% -8.7 19
1984-09-16 Valerenga L 2-3 1289 1367 32.8% 31.2% 36.0% -4.5 23
1984-09-16 @ Start W 3-2 1367 1289 36.0% 31.2% 32.8% +4.5 30
1984-09-16 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1184 1163 46.0% 30.9% 23.1% -6.1 13
1984-09-16 @ Strindheim W 2-1 1163 1184 23.1% 30.9% 46.0% +6.1 14
1984-09-30 Strindheim W 1-0 1202 1178 46.4% 30.9% 22.7% +3.8 17
1984-09-30 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-1 1178 1202 22.7% 30.9% 46.4% -3.9 13
1984-09-30 Bryne D 2-2 1169 1220 36.8% 31.3% 31.9% -0.1 15
1984-09-30 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1220 1169 31.9% 31.3% 36.8% +0.1 22
1984-09-30 Valerenga W 1-0 1214 1372 23.2% 30.1% 46.7% +6.5 21
1984-09-30 @ Kongsvinger L 0-1 1372 1214 46.7% 30.1% 23.2% -6.5 30
1984-09-30 Lillestrom D 0-0 1179 1270 31.0% 31.1% 37.9% +0.2 18
1984-09-30 @ Molde D 0-0 1270 1179 37.9% 31.1% 31.0% -0.2 22
1984-09-30 Start W 2-1 1223 1284 35.2% 31.3% 33.4% +4.8 21
1984-09-30 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1284 1223 33.4% 31.3% 35.2% -4.8 23
1984-09-30 Moss L 0-3 1252 1210 48.5% 30.6% 20.9% -18.5 21
1984-09-30 @ Viking W 3-0 1210 1252 20.9% 30.6% 48.5% +18.5 17
1984-10-07 Eik Tonsberg W 3-2 1220 1206 45.2% 31.0% 23.8% +3.6 24
1984-10-07 @ Bryne L 2-3 1206 1220 23.8% 31.0% 45.2% -3.6 17
1984-10-07 Lillestrom W 3-1 1220 1270 36.9% 31.3% 31.8% +8.0 23
1984-10-07 @ Kongsvinger L 1-3 1270 1220 31.8% 31.3% 36.9% -8.0 22
1984-10-07 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1229 1169 50.5% 30.3% 19.2% -6.6 17
1984-10-07 @ Moss W 2-1 1169 1229 19.2% 30.3% 50.5% +6.6 17
1984-10-07 Viking L 1-2 1279 1233 49.0% 30.5% 20.5% -6.4 23
1984-10-07 @ Start W 2-1 1233 1279 20.5% 30.5% 49.0% +6.4 23
1984-10-07 Molde D 1-1 1174 1179 42.9% 31.2% 25.9% -0.5 14
1984-10-07 @ Strindheim D 1-1 1179 1174 25.9% 31.2% 42.9% +0.5 19
1984-10-07 Rosenborg W 1-0 1365 1228 58.5% 28.2% 13.4% +2.4 32
1984-10-07 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1228 1365 13.4% 28.2% 58.5% -2.4 21
1984-10-14 Moss W 3-0 1202 1222 40.9% 31.3% 27.8% +12.3 19
1984-10-14 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-3 1222 1202 27.8% 31.3% 40.9% -12.3 17
1984-10-14 Start L 1-2 1176 1273 30.4% 31.1% 38.6% -4.5 17
1984-10-14 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1273 1176 38.6% 31.1% 30.4% +4.5 25
1984-10-14 Strindheim D 2-2 1262 1174 53.6% 29.6% 16.8% -0.8 23
1984-10-14 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1174 1262 16.8% 29.6% 53.6% +0.8 15
1984-10-14 Bryne W 5-3 1179 1224 37.6% 31.3% 31.1% +6.7 21
1984-10-14 @ Molde L 3-5 1224 1179 31.1% 31.3% 37.6% -6.7 24
1984-10-14 Kongsvinger W 4-1 1225 1229 43.0% 31.2% 25.8% +9.8 23
1984-10-14 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1229 1225 25.8% 31.2% 43.0% -9.8 23
1984-10-14 Valerenga W 2-0 1240 1368 26.5% 30.6% 42.9% +11.5 25
1984-10-14 @ Viking L 0-2 1368 1240 42.9% 30.6% 26.5% -11.5 32

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1984-06-11 18.95% Moss 1202 2 @ Rosenborg 1265 0
2 1984-10-07 19.25% Fredrikstad 1169 2 @ Moss 1229 1
3 1984-05-06 19.36% Eik Tonsberg 1227 2 @ Start 1285 1
4 1984-06-28 19.47% Molde 1168 1 @ Viking 1224 0
5 1984-09-02 19.65% Fredrikstad 1157 2 @ Eik Tonsberg 1211 1
6 1984-09-02 19.81% Rosenborg 1224 2 @ Lillestrom 1277 0
7 1984-06-03 19.90% Kongsvinger 1217 2 @ Start 1269 1
8 1984-10-07 20.49% Viking 1233 2 @ Start 1279 1
9 1984-09-30 20.90% Moss 1210 3 @ Viking 1252 0
10 1984-09-16 23.06% Fredrikstad 1163 2 @ Strindheim 1184 1
11 1984-09-30 23.21% @ Kongsvinger 1214 1 Valerenga 1372 0
12 1984-09-09 23.45% Bryne 1220 5 @ Rosenborg 1237 4
13 1984-08-12 23.61% Kongsvinger 1222 2 @ Strindheim 1238 1
14 1984-05-16 24.46% Bryne 1204 2 @ Moss 1212 1
15 1984-06-24 25.25% Bryne 1224 2 @ Eik Tonsberg 1225 1
16 1984-07-08 25.78% Strindheim 1232 1 @ Bryne 1228 0
17 1984-07-01 25.87% Eik Tonsberg 1219 4 @ Moss 1215 3
18 1984-10-14 26.49% @ Viking 1240 2 Valerenga 1368 0
19 1984-08-26 26.89% Molde 1178 4 @ Fredrikstad 1165 2
20 1984-05-16 26.92% Eik Tonsberg 1233 2 @ Viking 1221 1
21 1984-05-21 27.83% Rosenborg 1254 2 @ Strindheim 1234 0
22 1984-09-16 27.97% Viking 1246 2 @ Bryne 1225 1
23 1984-04-29 29.13% Rosenborg 1239 2 @ Fredrikstad 1209 0
24 1984-06-11 29.40% Lillestrom 1270 1 @ Eik Tonsberg 1238 0
25 1984-06-11 29.51% Strindheim 1214 1 @ Fredrikstad 1181 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1984-06-25 23.91 Valerenga 5 1304 32.11% @ Rosenborg 0 1252 36.56% 31.33%
2 1984-08-12 21.56 @ Viking 8 1214 42.29% Rosenborg 1 1223 26.50% 31.21%
3 1984-09-30 18.53 Moss 3 1210 20.90% @ Viking 0 1252 48.51% 30.59%
4 1984-05-13 15.85 @ Lillestrom 4 1262 41.35% Start 0 1278 27.40% 31.26%
5 1984-08-27 15.21 @ Rosenborg 4 1209 42.92% Strindheim 0 1213 25.91% 31.17%
6 1984-06-11 13.28 Moss 2 1202 18.95% @ Rosenborg 0 1265 50.86% 30.19%
7 1984-08-15 13.19 @ Moss 3 1189 37.82% Strindheim 0 1232 30.84% 31.34%
8 1984-04-29 13.18 Start 3 1272 38.00% @ Molde 0 1179 30.90% 31.11%
9 1984-05-20 13.08 @ Molde 3 1157 38.18% Fredrikstad 0 1197 30.48% 31.34%
10 1984-09-02 13.05 Rosenborg 2 1224 19.81% @ Lillestrom 0 1277 49.81% 30.38%
11 1984-05-06 12.97 @ Kongsvinger 3 1213 38.55% Strindheim 0 1251 30.11% 31.33%
12 1984-08-12 12.71 @ Molde 3 1171 39.43% Moss 0 1202 29.25% 31.32%
13 1984-10-14 12.27 @ Eik Tonsberg 3 1202 40.90% Moss 0 1222 27.82% 31.27%
14 1984-10-14 11.47 @ Viking 2 1240 26.49% Valerenga 0 1368 42.86% 30.65%
15 1984-05-21 11.12 Rosenborg 2 1254 27.83% @ Strindheim 0 1234 40.90% 31.27%
16 1984-05-06 11.05 Lillestrom 5 1251 31.15% @ Bryne 2 1206 37.51% 31.34%
17 1984-04-29 10.84 Rosenborg 2 1239 29.13% @ Fredrikstad 0 1209 39.56% 31.32%
18 1984-05-16 10.79 @ Valerenga 3 1296 45.67% Lillestrom 0 1278 23.39% 30.94%
19 1984-08-12 10.22 Valerenga 3 1337 47.92% @ Fredrikstad 0 1170 22.23% 29.86%
20 1984-07-18 10.14 @ Valerenga 4 1327 55.07% Eik Tonsberg 0 1224 15.71% 29.22%
21 1984-06-24 10.01 @ Lillestrom 5 1284 50.63% Kongsvinger 1 1224 19.14% 30.23%
22 1984-08-19 9.95 Valerenga 2 1353 33.46% @ Lillestrom 0 1292 35.23% 31.31%
23 1984-10-14 9.79 @ Rosenborg 4 1225 43.03% Kongsvinger 1 1229 25.80% 31.16%
24 1984-05-20 9.18 @ Bryne 3 1210 30.38% Valerenga 1 1306 38.55% 31.07%
25 1984-09-02 9.03 Viking 3 1231 31.07% @ Molde 1 1186 37.59% 31.34%