1983 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Valerenga

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valerenga

4.95 points above expected

31 points · 26.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hamarkameratene

7.60 points below expected

10 points · 17.60 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valerenga 22 12 7 3 31 38 17 +21 26.05 +4.95
2 Lillestrom 22 10 8 4 28 40 28 +12 23.95 +4.05
3 Start 22 10 7 5 27 47 27 +20 23.08 +3.92
4 Moss 22 8 8 6 24 31 34 -3 22.06 +1.94
5 Eik Tonsberg 22 9 5 8 23 34 32 +2 22.97 +0.03
6 Viking 22 8 6 8 22 31 34 -3 23.20 -1.20
7 Rosenborg 22 7 7 8 21 41 38 +3 22.10 -1.10
8 Bryne 22 7 7 8 21 31 32 -1 22.16 -1.16
9 Kongsvinger 22 7 6 9 20 44 42 +2 22.17 -2.17
10 Brann 22 7 6 9 20 31 32 -1 19.43 +0.57
11 Mjondalen 22 5 7 10 17 17 34 -17 19.23 -2.23
12 Hamarkameratene 22 3 4 15 10 15 50 -35 17.60 -7.60

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valerenga 1321 31 26.05 +4.95 93.3% 11 20 23 26 29 32 38
Start 1305 27 23.08 +3.92 88.6% 8 17 21 23 26 29 38
Lillestrom 1276 28 23.95 +4.05 88.9% 9 18 21 24 27 30 37
Rosenborg 1253 21 22.10 -1.10 43.9% 8 16 20 22 25 28 34
Eik Tonsberg 1244 23 22.97 +0.03 55.1% 9 17 20 23 26 29 37
Brann 1229 20 19.43 +0.57 61.7% 4 13 17 19 22 25 32
Viking 1225 22 23.20 -1.20 42.1% 9 17 21 23 26 29 37
Kongsvinger 1220 20 22.17 -2.17 33.1% 8 16 20 22 25 28 35
Moss 1219 24 22.06 +1.94 74.3% 8 16 20 22 25 28 37
Bryne 1201 21 22.16 -1.16 42.7% 10 16 20 22 25 28 35
Mjondalen 1136 17 19.23 -2.23 32.2% 5 13 17 19 22 25 35
Hamarkameratene 1083 10 17.60 -7.60 2.3% 4 12 15 18 20 24 33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA BRY ET HAM KON LIL MJO MOS ROS STA VAL VIK
Brann
1-1-0
2.25
0-2-0
2.07
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.03
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.37
0-1-1
2.37
0-0-2
2.44
1-1-0
1.87
1-0-1
2.28
Bryne
0-1-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.83
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.62
2-0-0
3.08
1-1-0
2.62
0-1-1
2.79
1-1-0
2.17
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.51
Eik Tonsberg
0-2-0
3.32
2-0-0
2.54
1-1-0
3.25
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
2.77
1-1-0
3.26
0-1-1
2.86
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.53
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
2.76
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.13
2-0-0
2.07
0-0-2
1.73
0-1-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.25
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
1.65
0-0-2
2.07
Kongsvinger
1-0-1
2.86
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
3.33
0-2-0
2.58
0-1-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.71
2-0-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.64
Lillestrom
1-0-1
3.35
2-0-0
2.76
2-0-0
2.61
2-0-0
3.68
0-2-0
2.80
1-1-0
3.38
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
3.01
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.35
0-2-0
2.88
Mjondalen
1-0-1
2.63
0-0-2
2.30
0-1-1
2.13
1-1-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.09
0-1-1
2.02
0-1-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.38
0-0-2
2.39
0-0-2
2.00
1-1-0
2.21
Moss
1-1-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.76
1-1-0
2.52
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-1
2.46
Rosenborg
1-1-0
3.01
1-1-0
2.60
0-0-2
2.61
2-0-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.69
0-0-2
2.30
1-1-0
2.53
Start
2-0-0
2.96
0-1-1
3.21
2-0-0
2.85
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-2
2.71
1-1-0
2.46
2-0-0
3.01
0-1-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.70
0-2-0
2.28
0-1-1
2.61
Valerenga
0-1-1
3.55
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
3.76
1-1-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
3.08
0-2-0
3.10
1-1-0
2.94
Viking
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.62
2-0-0
3.33
1-0-1
2.74
0-2-0
2.51
0-1-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.45

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.53 +4.1
Allowed 0.80 -6.0
Differential 0.89 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.36%4.17%6.06%4.17%2.27%1.52%29.55%
14.17%9.09%5.68%3.79%0.76%1.52%25.00%
26.06%5.68%8.33%2.65%1.52%1.14%25.38%
34.17%3.79%2.65%0.76%11.36%
42.27%0.76%1.52%4.55%
5+1.52%1.52%1.14%4.17%
Total29.55%25.00%25.38%11.36%4.55%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.45 1.45 2.18
CV 0.96 0.96
Max 9 9 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%18.18%4.55%40.91%
14.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%27.27%
29.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
3
44.55%4.55%9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total31.82%18.18%31.82%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.45 -0.05
SD 2.09 1.34 2.48
CV 1.48 0.92
Max 9 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%36.36%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
29.09%4.55%18.18%31.82%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
4
5+4.55%4.55%
Total22.73%27.27%40.91%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.45 -0.05
SD 1.37 1.18 1.86
CV 0.97 0.81
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%4.55%31.82%
19.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%31.82%
24.55%4.55%9.09%
34.55%9.09%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%
Total36.36%13.64%22.73%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.45 +0.09
SD 1.63 1.34 2.33
CV 1.05 0.92
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%13.64%9.09%13.64%54.55%
19.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%4.55%
4
5+
Total18.18%22.73%18.18%13.64%13.64%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 2.27 -1.59
SD 0.89 1.80 2.28
CV 1.31 0.79
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%27.27%
14.55%9.09%13.64%
29.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+9.09%4.55%13.64%
Total9.09%22.73%40.91%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.91 +0.09
SD 1.88 1.02 2.16
CV 0.94 0.53
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
14.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%4.55%13.64%22.73%
39.09%13.64%22.73%
49.09%9.09%
5+
Total31.82%36.36%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.27 +0.55
SD 1.22 1.28 2.18
CV 0.67 1.01
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%59.09%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
24.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total31.82%31.82%9.09%13.64%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.55 -0.77
SD 1.07 1.63 2.09
CV 1.38 1.05
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%18.18%
19.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%31.82%
29.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%4.55%40.91%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
4
5+
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.55 -0.14
SD 0.91 1.60 1.86
CV 0.64 1.03
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%
19.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%
29.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
34.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total27.27%22.73%13.64%27.27%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.73 +0.14
SD 1.25 1.49 2.03
CV 0.67 0.86
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%
14.55%13.64%13.64%31.82%
29.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%
49.09%4.55%13.64%
5+9.09%9.09%
Total36.36%22.73%36.36%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.23 +0.91
SD 1.58 1.38 2.37
CV 0.74 1.12
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%4.55%27.27%
113.64%4.55%4.55%22.73%
24.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
313.64%9.09%4.55%27.27%
44.55%4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%
Total59.09%13.64%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.77 +0.95
SD 1.49 1.11 1.70
CV 0.86 1.44
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%22.73%
14.55%13.64%13.64%31.82%
24.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%
5+
Total18.18%45.45%27.27%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.55 -0.14
SD 1.10 1.84 1.96
CV 0.78 1.19
Max 4 9 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 31 26.05 +4.95
2 Lillestrom 28 23.95 +4.05
3 Start 27 23.08 +3.92
4 Moss 24 22.06 +1.94
5 Brann 20 19.43 +0.57

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hamarkameratene 10 17.60 -7.60
2 Mjondalen 17 19.23 -2.23
3 Kongsvinger 20 22.17 -2.17
4 Viking 22 23.20 -1.20
5 Bryne 21 22.16 -1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 5 Jun 12 – Aug 3 1 in 70
2 Rosenborg 3 Sep 25 – Oct 9 1 in 41
3 Start 4 Sep 4 – Oct 2 1 in 36
4 Bryne 3 Jun 19 – Aug 1 1 in 31
5 Lillestrom 3 Aug 3 – Aug 14 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bryne 3 Aug 7 – Aug 21 1 in 56
2 Hamarkameratene 5 Sep 4 – Oct 9 1 in 55
3 Valerenga 2 Sep 11 – Sep 25 1 in 25
4 Lillestrom 2 Aug 29 – Sep 4 1 in 16
5 Kongsvinger 2 May 16 – May 23 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 12 May 29 – Sep 4 1 in 29
2 Moss 8 Aug 3 – Sep 25 1 in 23
3 Start 7 Aug 21 – Oct 9 1 in 12
4 Bryne 6 Jun 5 – Aug 3 1 in 11
5 Kongsvinger 5 Aug 1 – Aug 21 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bryne 10 Aug 3 – Oct 9 1 in 121
2 Rosenborg 10 Jun 5 – Aug 29 1 in 74
3 Mjondalen 9 Jun 5 – Aug 21 1 in 29
4 Valerenga 5 Sep 4 – Oct 9 1 in 22
5 Brann 9 May 12 – Jul 31 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Valerenga33.93%18.30%12.35%9.63%7.14%5.66%4.17%3.47%2.30%1.57%1.04%0.44%
Lillestrom13.96%14.96%12.68%11.07%10.02%8.94%7.48%6.30%5.75%4.27%3.01%1.56%
Start10.64%11.70%11.65%11.34%10.30%9.40%8.82%7.33%6.14%5.68%4.43%2.57%
Moss5.03%6.85%8.44%8.84%9.51%9.94%10.18%10.54%9.32%8.73%7.58%5.04%
Eik Tonsberg8.27%10.13%10.83%10.34%10.14%9.81%9.61%9.06%7.25%6.58%5.05%2.93%
Viking8.67%10.34%10.74%10.30%10.73%10.27%9.09%8.48%7.37%6.40%4.81%2.80%
Rosenborg5.78%7.53%8.86%9.50%9.46%9.78%9.91%9.88%9.55%8.56%6.96%4.23%
Bryne5.55%7.75%8.24%9.43%9.85%9.78%9.79%9.70%9.59%8.83%6.86%4.63%
Kongsvinger5.74%7.58%8.84%9.54%9.73%9.65%10.28%9.90%9.10%8.07%7.00%4.57%
Brann1.16%2.39%3.32%4.89%5.79%6.75%8.43%9.65%12.39%14.32%15.27%15.64%
Mjondalen0.92%1.78%2.66%3.41%4.94%6.43%7.59%9.36%11.85%14.39%18.11%18.56%
Hamarkameratene0.35%0.69%1.39%1.71%2.39%3.59%4.65%6.33%9.39%12.60%19.88%37.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.39%
Slight Edge
42.42%29.55%28.03%
Elo Value
Home Edge
148 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
050.36400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.8
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
34%
Valerenga, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.99 * Some Luck: 2.99 to 4.48 * Lucky: 4.48 to 5.98 * Wild Swing: 5.98 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.21 * Close: 2.21 to 3.31 * Off: 3.31 to 4.41 * Way Off: 4.41 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.31 points
Some Luck
03.749
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
02.766
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
93.29%
Valerenga
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.35%
Hamarkameratene
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.16
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.79
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.42
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.44
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.98
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1480.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Brann 100%
Bryne 100%
Eik Tonsberg 100%
Hamarkameratene 100%
Kongsvinger 100%
Lillestrom 100%
Mjondalen 100%
Moss 100%
Rosenborg 100%
Start 100%
Valerenga 100%
Viking 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1983-04-24 Start L 0-2 1215 1209 45.2% 31.0% 23.7% -16.0 0
1983-04-24 @ Brann W 2-0 1209 1215 23.7% 31.0% 45.2% +16.0 2
1983-04-24 Mjondalen W 5-1 1218 1203 46.3% 30.9% 22.8% +15.3 2
1983-04-24 @ Bryne L 1-5 1203 1218 22.8% 30.9% 46.3% -15.3 0
1983-04-24 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1246 1215 48.2% 30.7% 21.1% -1.2 1
1983-04-24 @ Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1215 1246 21.1% 30.7% 48.2% +1.2 1
1983-04-24 Lillestrom D 2-2 1242 1233 45.5% 31.0% 23.5% -0.6 1
1983-04-24 @ Kongsvinger D 2-2 1233 1242 23.5% 31.0% 45.5% +0.6 1
1983-04-24 Viking W 2-0 1216 1246 40.6% 31.3% 28.1% +11.3 2
1983-04-24 @ Moss L 0-2 1246 1216 28.1% 31.3% 40.6% -11.3 0
1983-05-01 Bryne L 0-2 1216 1233 42.3% 31.2% 26.5% -15.2 1
1983-05-01 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1233 1216 26.5% 31.2% 42.3% +15.2 4
1983-05-01 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1234 1245 43.1% 31.2% 25.7% +9.2 3
1983-05-01 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1245 1234 25.7% 31.2% 43.1% -9.2 1
1983-05-01 Brann W 3-0 1187 1199 42.9% 31.2% 25.9% +15.5 2
1983-05-01 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1199 1187 25.9% 31.2% 42.9% -15.5 0
1983-05-01 Kongsvinger D 3-3 1226 1241 42.5% 31.2% 26.3% -0.4 1
1983-05-01 @ Rosenborg D 3-3 1241 1226 26.3% 31.2% 42.5% +0.4 2
1983-05-01 Moss D 2-2 1225 1227 44.1% 31.1% 24.8% -0.5 3
1983-05-01 @ Start D 2-2 1227 1225 24.8% 31.1% 44.1% +0.6 3
1983-05-01 Valerenga D 0-0 1235 1244 43.2% 31.2% 25.6% -0.8 1
1983-05-01 @ Viking D 0-0 1244 1235 25.6% 31.2% 43.2% +0.8 1
1983-05-06 Rosenborg W 3-0 1245 1226 46.8% 30.9% 22.3% +13.8 3
1983-05-06 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1226 1245 22.3% 30.9% 46.8% -13.8 1
1983-05-09 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1184 1201 42.3% 31.2% 26.5% +5.4 2
1983-05-09 @ Brann L 1-2 1201 1184 26.5% 31.2% 42.3% -5.4 1
1983-05-09 Eik Tonsberg L 0-1 1248 1236 45.9% 31.0% 23.1% -8.6 4
1983-05-09 @ Bryne W 1-0 1236 1248 23.1% 31.0% 45.9% +8.6 3
1983-05-09 Viking L 1-2 1242 1234 45.3% 31.0% 23.6% -8.0 2
1983-05-09 @ Kongsvinger W 2-1 1234 1242 23.6% 31.0% 45.3% +8.0 3
1983-05-09 Mjondalen W 1-0 1228 1203 47.5% 30.8% 21.7% +4.9 5
1983-05-09 @ Moss L 0-1 1203 1228 21.7% 30.8% 47.5% -5.0 2
1983-05-09 Lillestrom W 3-0 1212 1243 40.4% 31.3% 28.3% +16.5 3
1983-05-09 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1243 1212 28.3% 31.3% 40.4% -16.5 3
1983-05-09 Start D 0-0 1259 1224 48.6% 30.7% 20.7% -1.2 4
1983-05-09 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1224 1259 20.7% 30.7% 48.6% +1.2 4
1983-05-12 Brann D 2-2 1244 1189 50.9% 30.3% 18.8% -1.0 4
1983-05-12 @ Eik Tonsberg D 2-2 1189 1244 18.8% 30.3% 50.9% +0.9 3
1983-05-12 Moss L 0-1 1195 1233 39.6% 31.3% 29.1% -7.7 1
1983-05-12 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1233 1195 29.1% 31.3% 39.6% +7.7 7
1983-05-12 Bryne W 2-0 1227 1239 42.9% 31.2% 25.9% +10.7 5
1983-05-12 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1239 1227 25.9% 31.2% 42.9% -10.7 4
1983-05-12 Valerenga L 0-2 1198 1258 36.5% 31.3% 32.1% -13.6 2
1983-05-12 @ Mjondalen W 2-0 1258 1198 32.1% 31.3% 36.5% +13.6 6
1983-05-12 Kongsvinger L 2-6 1225 1234 43.4% 31.2% 25.4% -20.8 4
1983-05-12 @ Start W 6-2 1234 1225 25.4% 31.2% 43.4% +20.8 4
1983-05-12 Rosenborg L 1-2 1242 1228 46.2% 30.9% 22.9% -8.2 3
1983-05-12 @ Viking W 2-1 1228 1242 22.9% 30.9% 46.2% +8.2 5
1983-05-16 Bryne D 0-0 1190 1229 39.4% 31.3% 29.2% -0.4 4
1983-05-16 @ Brann D 0-0 1229 1190 29.2% 31.3% 39.4% +0.4 5
1983-05-16 Mjondalen L 0-2 1254 1184 52.5% 30.0% 17.5% -18.2 4
1983-05-16 @ Kongsvinger W 2-0 1184 1254 17.5% 30.0% 52.5% +18.2 4
1983-05-16 Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1240 1244 44.1% 31.1% 24.8% -0.7 8
1983-05-16 @ Moss D 1-1 1244 1240 24.8% 31.1% 44.1% +0.7 5
1983-05-16 Start L 2-3 1236 1205 48.2% 30.7% 21.1% -8.0 5
1983-05-16 @ Rosenborg W 3-2 1205 1236 21.1% 30.7% 48.2% +8.0 6
1983-05-16 Hamarkameratene W 5-0 1271 1188 53.9% 29.7% 16.4% +17.4 8
1983-05-16 @ Valerenga L 0-5 1188 1271 16.4% 29.7% 53.9% -17.4 1
1983-05-16 Lillestrom D 2-2 1234 1237 44.0% 31.1% 24.9% -0.5 4
1983-05-16 @ Viking D 2-2 1237 1234 24.9% 31.1% 44.0% +0.5 6
1983-05-23 Moss W 3-2 1229 1240 43.1% 31.2% 25.7% +5.0 7
1983-05-23 @ Bryne L 2-3 1240 1229 25.7% 31.2% 43.1% -5.0 8
1983-05-23 Valerenga W 2-0 1244 1289 38.7% 31.3% 30.0% +11.9 7
1983-05-23 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-2 1289 1244 30.0% 31.3% 38.7% -11.9 8
1983-05-23 Kongsvinger W 2-1 1170 1236 35.7% 31.3% 33.0% +6.3 3
1983-05-23 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1236 1170 33.0% 31.3% 35.7% -6.3 4
1983-05-23 Brann W 3-1 1238 1190 50.1% 30.4% 19.4% +7.4 8
1983-05-23 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1190 1238 19.4% 30.4% 50.1% -7.4 4
1983-05-23 Rosenborg D 0-0 1202 1228 41.1% 31.3% 27.6% -0.6 5
1983-05-23 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1228 1202 27.6% 31.3% 41.1% +0.6 6
1983-05-23 Viking L 1-2 1213 1234 41.8% 31.3% 27.0% -7.5 6
1983-05-23 @ Start W 2-1 1234 1213 27.0% 31.3% 41.8% +7.5 6
1983-05-29 Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1230 1256 41.1% 31.3% 27.6% +5.6 6
1983-05-29 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1256 1230 27.6% 31.3% 41.1% -5.6 7
1983-05-29 Brann D 1-1 1235 1182 50.6% 30.4% 19.1% -1.3 9
1983-05-29 @ Moss D 1-1 1182 1235 19.1% 30.4% 50.6% +1.2 5
1983-05-29 Hamarkameratene W 4-0 1229 1176 50.6% 30.4% 19.1% +16.0 8
1983-05-29 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1176 1229 19.1% 30.4% 50.6% -16.0 3
1983-05-29 Lillestrom D 1-1 1205 1245 39.2% 31.3% 29.4% -0.4 7
1983-05-29 @ Start D 1-1 1245 1205 29.4% 31.3% 39.2% +0.4 9
1983-05-29 Bryne W 1-0 1277 1234 49.5% 30.5% 20.0% +4.6 10
1983-05-29 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1234 1277 20.0% 30.5% 49.5% -4.6 7
1983-05-29 Mjondalen L 1-2 1241 1202 49.1% 30.6% 20.3% -8.6 6
1983-05-29 @ Viking W 2-1 1202 1241 20.3% 30.6% 49.1% +8.6 7
1983-06-05 Valerenga D 1-1 1184 1282 31.3% 31.1% 37.6% +0.2 6
1983-06-05 @ Brann D 1-1 1282 1184 37.6% 31.1% 31.3% -0.2 11
1983-06-05 Kongsvinger W 3-2 1230 1235 43.7% 31.1% 25.1% +5.0 9
1983-06-05 @ Bryne L 2-3 1235 1230 25.1% 31.1% 43.7% -5.0 6
1983-06-05 Rosenborg W 3-1 1251 1245 45.1% 31.1% 23.8% +8.7 9
1983-06-05 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-3 1245 1251 23.8% 31.1% 45.1% -8.7 8
1983-06-05 Viking L 2-3 1160 1233 34.9% 31.3% 33.9% -6.2 3
1983-06-05 @ Hamarkameratene W 3-2 1233 1160 33.9% 31.3% 34.9% +6.2 8
1983-06-05 Moss W 4-0 1246 1233 45.9% 31.0% 23.1% +18.6 11
1983-06-05 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1233 1246 23.1% 31.0% 45.9% -18.6 9
1983-06-05 Start L 0-5 1210 1205 45.1% 31.1% 23.8% -37.4 7
1983-06-05 @ Mjondalen W 5-0 1205 1210 23.8% 31.1% 45.1% +37.4 9
1983-06-12 Brann W 5-1 1230 1184 49.9% 30.5% 19.6% +13.6 8
1983-06-12 @ Kongsvinger L 1-5 1184 1230 19.6% 30.5% 49.9% -13.6 6
1983-06-12 Lillestrom D 2-2 1173 1264 32.2% 31.2% 36.7% +0.1 8
1983-06-12 @ Mjondalen D 2-2 1264 1173 36.7% 31.2% 32.2% -0.1 12
1983-06-12 Bryne D 2-2 1236 1235 44.6% 31.1% 24.3% -0.6 9
1983-06-12 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1235 1236 24.3% 31.1% 44.6% +0.6 10
1983-06-12 Hamarkameratene W 6-0 1242 1154 54.3% 29.6% 16.1% +20.3 11
1983-06-12 @ Start L 0-6 1154 1242 16.1% 29.6% 54.3% -20.3 3
1983-06-12 Moss W 4-2 1281 1215 52.1% 30.1% 17.8% +6.2 13
1983-06-12 @ Valerenga L 2-4 1215 1281 17.8% 30.1% 52.1% -6.2 9
1983-06-12 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1239 1259 41.9% 31.2% 26.9% +9.5 10
1983-06-12 @ Viking L 1-3 1259 1239 26.9% 31.2% 41.9% -9.5 9
1983-06-19 Rosenborg D 0-0 1170 1236 35.8% 31.3% 32.9% -0.1 7
1983-06-19 @ Brann D 0-0 1236 1170 32.9% 31.3% 35.8% +0.1 10
1983-06-19 Viking W 2-1 1235 1248 42.8% 31.2% 26.0% +5.3 12
1983-06-19 @ Bryne L 1-2 1248 1235 26.0% 31.2% 42.8% -5.3 10
1983-06-19 Start L 1-2 1250 1262 42.8% 31.2% 26.0% -7.7 9
1983-06-19 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1262 1250 26.0% 31.2% 42.8% +7.7 13
1983-06-19 Mjondalen D 1-1 1134 1173 39.4% 31.3% 29.3% -0.4 4
1983-06-19 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1173 1134 29.3% 31.3% 39.4% +0.4 9
1983-06-19 Kongsvinger W 3-2 1209 1244 39.9% 31.3% 28.8% +5.5 11
1983-06-19 @ Moss L 2-3 1244 1209 28.8% 31.3% 39.9% -5.5 8
1983-06-19 Lillestrom W 3-1 1288 1264 47.2% 30.8% 21.9% +8.2 15
1983-06-19 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1264 1288 21.9% 30.8% 47.2% -8.2 12
1983-06-27 Valerenga L 0-3 1239 1296 37.0% 31.3% 31.7% -19.9 8
1983-06-27 @ Kongsvinger W 3-0 1296 1239 31.7% 31.3% 37.0% +19.9 17
1983-06-27 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1256 1134 57.6% 28.7% 13.7% +3.4 14
1983-06-27 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1134 1256 13.7% 28.7% 57.6% -3.3 4
1983-06-27 Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1173 1242 35.3% 31.3% 33.4% -0.1 10
1983-06-27 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1242 1173 33.4% 31.3% 35.3% +0.1 10
1983-06-27 Moss D 2-2 1236 1214 47.0% 30.9% 22.1% -0.7 11
1983-06-27 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1214 1236 22.1% 30.9% 47.0% +0.7 12
1983-06-27 Bryne L 0-2 1270 1240 48.0% 30.7% 21.3% -16.8 13
1983-06-27 @ Start W 2-0 1240 1270 21.3% 30.7% 48.0% +16.8 14
1983-06-27 Brann W 2-0 1243 1170 52.7% 29.9% 17.3% +7.8 12
1983-06-27 @ Viking L 0-2 1170 1243 17.3% 29.9% 52.7% -7.8 7
1983-07-31 Eik Tonsberg L 0-5 1130 1242 29.5% 31.0% 39.6% -27.3 4
1983-07-31 @ Hamarkameratene W 5-0 1242 1130 39.6% 31.0% 29.5% +27.3 12
1983-07-31 Brann W 1-0 1253 1162 54.6% 29.5% 15.9% +3.8 15
1983-07-31 @ Start L 0-1 1162 1253 15.9% 29.5% 54.6% -3.8 7
1983-08-01 Kongsvinger D 1-1 1259 1219 49.3% 30.6% 20.2% -1.2 15
1983-08-01 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1219 1259 20.2% 30.6% 49.3% +1.2 9
1983-08-01 Bryne L 0-3 1173 1257 33.2% 31.2% 35.6% -18.4 10
1983-08-01 @ Mjondalen W 3-0 1257 1173 35.6% 31.2% 33.2% +18.4 16
1983-08-01 Valerenga L 2-3 1235 1316 33.7% 31.2% 35.1% -6.1 11
1983-08-01 @ Rosenborg W 3-2 1316 1235 35.1% 31.2% 33.7% +6.1 19
1983-08-01 Moss W 2-1 1251 1215 48.7% 30.6% 20.7% +4.5 14
1983-08-01 @ Viking L 1-2 1215 1251 20.7% 30.6% 48.7% -4.5 12
1983-08-03 Mjondalen W 1-0 1158 1155 44.9% 31.1% 24.1% +5.4 9
1983-08-03 @ Brann L 0-1 1155 1158 24.1% 31.1% 44.9% -5.4 10
1983-08-03 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1276 1103 62.0% 27.1% 10.9% -2.2 17
1983-08-03 @ Bryne D 1-1 1103 1276 10.9% 27.1% 62.0% +2.2 5
1983-08-03 Lillestrom L 0-3 1269 1258 45.8% 31.0% 23.2% -23.5 12
1983-08-03 @ Eik Tonsberg W 3-0 1258 1269 23.2% 31.0% 45.8% +23.5 17
1983-08-03 Rosenborg W 4-2 1220 1229 43.3% 31.2% 25.5% +8.2 11
1983-08-03 @ Kongsvinger L 2-4 1229 1220 25.5% 31.2% 43.3% -8.2 11
1983-08-03 Start W 2-1 1210 1257 38.4% 31.3% 30.3% +6.0 14
1983-08-03 @ Moss L 1-2 1257 1210 30.3% 31.3% 38.4% -6.0 15
1983-08-03 Viking W 1-0 1322 1255 52.1% 30.1% 17.8% +4.2 21
1983-08-03 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1255 1322 17.8% 30.1% 52.1% -4.2 14
1983-08-07 Bryne W 3-0 1246 1274 40.9% 31.3% 27.8% +16.3 14
1983-08-07 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-3 1274 1246 27.8% 31.3% 40.9% -16.3 17
1983-08-07 Brann W 2-0 1105 1164 36.7% 31.3% 31.9% +12.4 7
1983-08-07 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1164 1105 31.9% 31.3% 36.7% -12.4 9
1983-08-07 Rosenborg W 3-1 1282 1221 51.5% 30.2% 18.3% +7.1 19
1983-08-07 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1221 1282 18.3% 30.2% 51.5% -7.0 11
1983-08-07 Moss D 0-0 1150 1216 35.6% 31.3% 33.1% -0.1 11
1983-08-07 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1216 1150 33.1% 31.3% 35.6% +0.1 15
1983-08-07 Valerenga D 2-2 1251 1326 34.5% 31.3% 34.2% -0.0 16
1983-08-07 @ Start D 2-2 1326 1251 34.2% 31.3% 34.5% +0.0 22
1983-08-08 Kongsvinger L 2-3 1251 1228 47.2% 30.8% 22.0% -7.9 14
1983-08-08 @ Viking W 3-2 1228 1251 22.0% 30.8% 47.2% +7.9 13
1983-08-14 Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1151 1262 29.6% 31.0% 39.4% +0.4 10
1983-08-14 @ Brann D 0-0 1262 1151 39.4% 31.0% 29.6% -0.4 15
1983-08-14 Lillestrom L 1-2 1257 1289 40.4% 31.3% 28.3% -7.3 17
1983-08-14 @ Bryne W 2-1 1289 1257 28.3% 31.3% 40.4% +7.3 21
1983-08-14 Start W 2-1 1236 1251 42.5% 31.2% 26.3% +5.4 15
1983-08-14 @ Kongsvinger L 1-2 1251 1236 26.3% 31.2% 42.5% -5.4 16
1983-08-14 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1216 1118 55.4% 29.3% 15.3% -1.8 16
1983-08-14 @ Moss D 0-0 1118 1216 15.3% 29.3% 55.4% +1.9 8
1983-08-14 Viking D 1-1 1214 1243 40.7% 31.3% 28.0% -0.5 12
1983-08-14 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1243 1214 28.0% 31.3% 40.7% +0.5 15
1983-08-14 Mjondalen W 1-0 1326 1149 62.4% 27.0% 10.7% +2.6 24
1983-08-14 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1149 1326 10.7% 27.0% 62.4% -2.6 11
1983-08-21 Brann L 0-2 1250 1152 55.3% 29.3% 15.4% -19.0 17
1983-08-21 @ Bryne W 2-0 1152 1250 15.4% 29.3% 55.3% +19.0 12
1983-08-21 Moss L 0-3 1262 1215 50.0% 30.5% 19.6% -25.3 15
1983-08-21 @ Eik Tonsberg W 3-0 1215 1262 19.6% 30.5% 50.0% +25.3 18
1983-08-21 Valerenga L 1-3 1119 1329 19.1% 29.1% 51.8% -7.1 8
1983-08-21 @ Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1329 1119 51.8% 29.1% 19.1% +7.1 26
1983-08-21 Viking D 1-1 1296 1244 50.6% 30.4% 19.1% -1.3 22
1983-08-21 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1244 1296 19.1% 30.4% 50.6% +1.3 16
1983-08-21 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1147 1241 31.7% 31.2% 37.1% +0.2 12
1983-08-21 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1241 1147 37.1% 31.2% 31.7% -0.2 16
1983-08-21 Rosenborg D 1-1 1246 1213 48.3% 30.7% 21.0% -1.1 17
1983-08-21 @ Start D 1-1 1213 1246 21.0% 30.7% 48.3% +1.1 13
1983-08-28 Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1241 1112 58.2% 28.5% 13.3% -28.9 16
1983-08-28 @ Kongsvinger W 3-0 1112 1241 13.3% 28.5% 58.2% +28.9 10
1983-08-28 Bryne D 2-2 1240 1231 45.6% 31.0% 23.4% -0.6 19
1983-08-28 @ Moss D 2-2 1231 1240 23.4% 31.0% 45.6% +0.6 18
1983-08-28 Start D 1-1 1245 1245 44.5% 31.1% 24.4% -0.8 17
1983-08-28 @ Viking D 1-1 1245 1245 24.4% 31.1% 44.5% +0.8 18
1983-08-29 Lillestrom W 4-0 1171 1295 27.9% 30.8% 41.2% +28.1 14
1983-08-29 @ Brann L 0-4 1295 1171 41.2% 30.8% 27.9% -28.1 22
1983-08-29 Mjondalen L 1-2 1214 1147 52.2% 30.1% 17.8% -9.0 13
1983-08-29 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1147 1214 17.8% 30.1% 52.2% +9.0 14
1983-08-29 Eik Tonsberg W 3-0 1336 1236 55.4% 29.3% 15.3% +10.1 28
1983-08-29 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1236 1336 15.3% 29.3% 55.4% -10.1 15
1983-09-04 Moss L 0-2 1199 1239 39.2% 31.3% 29.4% -14.3 14
1983-09-04 @ Brann W 2-0 1239 1199 29.4% 31.3% 39.2% +14.3 21
1983-09-04 Valerenga D 0-0 1232 1346 29.2% 31.0% 39.9% +0.4 19
1983-09-04 @ Bryne D 0-0 1346 1232 39.9% 31.0% 29.2% -0.5 29
1983-09-04 Kongsvinger W 4-2 1226 1212 46.2% 30.9% 22.9% +7.5 17
1983-09-04 @ Eik Tonsberg L 2-4 1212 1226 22.9% 30.9% 46.2% -7.5 16
1983-09-04 Rosenborg L 0-2 1141 1205 36.0% 31.3% 32.7% -13.4 10
1983-09-04 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1205 1141 32.7% 31.3% 36.0% +13.4 15
1983-09-04 Start L 1-4 1267 1245 47.0% 30.9% 22.1% -20.3 22
1983-09-04 @ Lillestrom W 4-1 1245 1267 22.1% 30.9% 47.0% +20.3 20
1983-09-04 Viking D 0-0 1156 1244 32.6% 31.2% 36.2% +0.1 15
1983-09-04 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1244 1156 36.2% 31.2% 32.6% -0.1 18
1983-09-11 Bryne D 2-2 1205 1232 41.0% 31.3% 27.8% -0.4 17
1983-09-11 @ Kongsvinger D 2-2 1232 1205 27.8% 31.3% 41.0% +0.4 20
1983-09-11 Lillestrom D 1-1 1254 1247 45.3% 31.0% 23.7% -0.8 22
1983-09-11 @ Moss D 1-1 1247 1254 23.7% 31.0% 45.3% +0.8 23
1983-09-11 Eik Tonsberg L 2-5 1219 1234 42.5% 31.2% 26.2% -16.2 15
1983-09-11 @ Rosenborg W 5-2 1234 1219 26.2% 31.2% 42.5% +16.2 19
1983-09-11 Mjondalen W 4-0 1266 1156 56.4% 29.0% 14.6% +12.7 22
1983-09-11 @ Start L 0-4 1156 1266 14.6% 29.0% 56.4% -12.7 15
1983-09-11 Brann L 2-4 1345 1185 61.0% 27.5% 11.5% -16.0 29
1983-09-11 @ Valerenga W 4-2 1185 1345 11.5% 27.5% 61.0% +16.0 16
1983-09-11 Hamarkameratene W 4-1 1244 1128 57.0% 28.9% 14.1% +7.9 20
1983-09-11 @ Viking L 1-4 1128 1244 14.1% 28.9% 57.0% -7.9 10
1983-09-25 Kongsvinger W 2-0 1201 1204 44.0% 31.1% 24.9% +10.4 18
1983-09-25 @ Brann L 0-2 1204 1201 24.9% 31.1% 44.0% -10.4 17
1983-09-25 Rosenborg L 1-5 1232 1203 48.0% 30.7% 21.2% -26.6 20
1983-09-25 @ Bryne W 5-1 1203 1232 21.2% 30.7% 48.0% +26.6 17
1983-09-25 Viking W 1-0 1250 1252 44.2% 31.1% 24.7% +5.5 21
1983-09-25 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-1 1252 1250 24.7% 31.1% 44.2% -5.5 20
1983-09-25 Start L 0-2 1120 1278 24.0% 30.3% 45.8% -10.0 10
1983-09-25 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1278 1120 45.8% 30.3% 24.0% +10.0 24
1983-09-25 Mjondalen W 3-0 1247 1144 55.9% 29.2% 14.9% +9.9 25
1983-09-25 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1144 1247 14.9% 29.2% 55.9% -9.9 15
1983-09-25 Valerenga W 2-1 1253 1329 34.2% 31.3% 34.5% +6.5 24
1983-09-25 @ Moss L 1-2 1329 1253 34.5% 31.3% 34.2% -6.5 29
1983-10-02 Moss W 6-1 1194 1259 35.8% 31.3% 32.9% +24.5 19
1983-10-02 @ Kongsvinger L 1-6 1259 1194 32.9% 31.3% 35.8% -24.5 24
1983-10-02 Valerenga D 0-0 1257 1323 35.8% 31.3% 32.9% -0.1 26
1983-10-02 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1323 1257 32.9% 31.3% 35.8% +0.1 30
1983-10-02 Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1134 1110 47.3% 30.8% 21.9% +8.1 17
1983-10-02 @ Mjondalen L 1-3 1110 1134 21.9% 30.8% 47.3% -8.1 10
1983-10-02 Brann W 3-1 1229 1211 46.7% 30.9% 22.4% +8.3 19
1983-10-02 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1211 1229 22.4% 30.9% 46.7% -8.3 18
1983-10-02 Eik Tonsberg W 4-0 1288 1256 48.4% 30.7% 20.9% +17.2 26
1983-10-02 @ Start L 0-4 1256 1288 20.9% 30.7% 48.4% -17.2 21
1983-10-02 Bryne W 1-0 1246 1206 49.2% 30.6% 20.2% +4.7 22
1983-10-02 @ Viking L 0-1 1206 1246 20.2% 30.6% 49.2% -4.7 20
1983-10-09 Viking W 9-2 1203 1251 38.1% 31.3% 30.5% +26.1 20
1983-10-09 @ Brann L 2-9 1251 1203 30.5% 31.3% 38.1% -26.1 22
1983-10-09 Start D 2-2 1201 1306 30.4% 31.1% 38.5% +0.2 21
1983-10-09 @ Bryne D 2-2 1306 1201 38.5% 31.1% 30.4% -0.2 27
1983-10-09 Mjondalen W 3-1 1238 1142 55.1% 29.4% 15.5% +6.1 23
1983-10-09 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-3 1142 1238 15.5% 29.4% 55.1% -6.1 17
1983-10-09 Lillestrom L 0-4 1102 1257 24.3% 30.3% 45.4% -19.1 10
1983-10-09 @ Hamarkameratene W 4-0 1257 1102 45.4% 30.3% 24.3% +19.1 28
1983-10-09 Rosenborg L 0-2 1235 1237 44.1% 31.1% 24.8% -15.7 24
1983-10-09 @ Moss W 2-0 1237 1235 24.8% 31.1% 44.1% +15.7 21
1983-10-09 Kongsvinger D 0-0 1323 1218 55.9% 29.2% 14.9% -1.9 31
1983-10-09 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1218 1323 14.9% 29.2% 55.9% +1.9 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1983-09-11 11.49% Brann 1185 4 @ Valerenga 1345 2
2 1983-08-28 13.30% Hamarkameratene 1112 3 @ Kongsvinger 1241 0
3 1983-08-21 15.36% Brann 1152 2 @ Bryne 1250 0
4 1983-05-16 17.53% Mjondalen 1184 2 @ Kongsvinger 1254 0
5 1983-08-29 17.77% Mjondalen 1147 2 @ Rosenborg 1214 1
6 1983-08-21 19.57% Moss 1215 3 @ Eik Tonsberg 1262 0
7 1983-05-29 20.31% Mjondalen 1202 2 @ Viking 1241 1
8 1983-05-16 21.05% Start 1205 3 @ Rosenborg 1236 2
9 1983-09-25 21.25% Rosenborg 1203 5 @ Bryne 1232 1
10 1983-06-27 21.26% Bryne 1240 2 @ Start 1270 0
11 1983-08-08 21.96% Kongsvinger 1228 3 @ Viking 1251 2
12 1983-09-04 22.12% Start 1245 4 @ Lillestrom 1267 1
13 1983-05-12 22.90% Rosenborg 1228 2 @ Viking 1242 1
14 1983-05-09 23.10% Eik Tonsberg 1236 1 @ Bryne 1248 0
15 1983-08-03 23.22% Lillestrom 1258 3 @ Eik Tonsberg 1269 0
16 1983-05-09 23.63% Viking 1234 2 @ Kongsvinger 1242 1
17 1983-04-24 23.73% Start 1209 2 @ Brann 1215 0
18 1983-06-05 23.83% Start 1205 5 @ Mjondalen 1210 0
19 1983-10-09 24.76% Rosenborg 1237 2 @ Moss 1235 0
20 1983-05-12 25.40% Kongsvinger 1234 6 @ Start 1225 2
21 1983-06-19 25.96% Start 1262 2 @ Eik Tonsberg 1250 1
22 1983-09-11 26.25% Eik Tonsberg 1234 5 @ Rosenborg 1219 2
23 1983-05-01 26.49% Bryne 1233 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1216 0
24 1983-05-23 26.95% Viking 1234 2 @ Start 1213 1
25 1983-08-29 27.94% @ Brann 1171 4 Lillestrom 1295 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1983-06-05 37.41 Start 5 1205 23.83% @ Mjondalen 0 1210 45.12% 31.05%
2 1983-08-28 28.90 Hamarkameratene 3 1112 13.30% @ Kongsvinger 0 1241 58.20% 28.50%
3 1983-08-29 28.12 @ Brann 4 1171 27.94% Lillestrom 0 1295 41.23% 30.83%
4 1983-07-31 27.26 Eik Tonsberg 5 1242 39.55% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1130 29.46% 30.99%
5 1983-09-25 26.63 Rosenborg 5 1203 21.25% @ Bryne 1 1232 48.01% 30.74%
6 1983-10-09 26.08 @ Brann 9 1203 38.14% Viking 2 1251 30.52% 31.34%
7 1983-08-21 25.31 Moss 3 1215 19.57% @ Eik Tonsberg 0 1262 49.97% 30.46%
8 1983-10-02 24.47 @ Kongsvinger 6 1194 35.79% Moss 1 1259 32.89% 31.32%
9 1983-08-03 23.51 Lillestrom 3 1258 23.22% @ Eik Tonsberg 0 1269 45.80% 30.99%
10 1983-05-12 20.81 Kongsvinger 6 1234 25.40% @ Start 2 1225 43.43% 31.17%
11 1983-06-12 20.29 @ Start 6 1242 54.28% Hamarkameratene 0 1154 16.11% 29.60%
12 1983-09-04 20.27 Start 4 1245 22.12% @ Lillestrom 1 1267 47.02% 30.86%
13 1983-06-27 19.91 Valerenga 3 1296 31.72% @ Kongsvinger 0 1239 36.95% 31.33%
14 1983-10-09 19.11 Lillestrom 4 1257 45.37% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1102 24.31% 30.32%
15 1983-08-21 19.03 Brann 2 1152 15.36% @ Bryne 0 1250 55.29% 29.35%
16 1983-06-05 18.58 @ Lillestrom 4 1246 45.94% Moss 0 1233 23.08% 30.97%
17 1983-08-01 18.44 Bryne 3 1257 35.59% @ Mjondalen 0 1173 33.18% 31.23%
18 1983-05-16 18.18 Mjondalen 2 1184 17.53% @ Kongsvinger 0 1254 52.46% 30.01%
19 1983-05-16 17.37 @ Valerenga 5 1271 53.88% Hamarkameratene 0 1188 16.42% 29.70%
20 1983-10-02 17.23 @ Start 4 1288 48.36% Eik Tonsberg 0 1256 20.94% 30.70%
21 1983-06-27 16.84 Bryne 2 1240 21.26% @ Start 0 1270 48.00% 30.74%
22 1983-05-09 16.52 @ Rosenborg 3 1212 40.39% Lillestrom 0 1243 28.30% 31.31%
23 1983-08-07 16.31 @ Eik Tonsberg 3 1246 40.90% Bryne 0 1274 27.81% 31.29%
24 1983-09-11 16.18 Eik Tonsberg 5 1234 26.25% @ Rosenborg 2 1219 42.53% 31.22%
25 1983-09-11 16.04 Brann 4 1185 11.49% @ Valerenga 2 1345 61.02% 27.49%