1982 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Viking

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Viking

5.58 points above expected

29 points · 23.42 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Fredrikstad

4.91 points below expected

18 points · 22.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Viking	22	11	7	4	29	39	24	+15	23.42	+5.58
2	Bryne	22	10	6	6	26	25	25	0	22.06	+3.94
3	Lillestrom	22	11	3	8	25	35	26	+9	22.09	+2.91
4	Valerenga	22	10	4	8	24	35	21	+14	24.61	-0.61
5	Hamarkameratene	22	11	2	9	24	33	35	-2	22.27	+1.73
6	Rosenborg	22	7	9	6	23	32	29	+3	22.04	+0.96
7	Mjondalen	22	9	5	8	23	28	32	-4	21.38	+1.62
8	Moss	22	6	8	8	20	27	26	+1	21.40	-1.40
9	Start	22	7	6	9	20	28	32	-4	21.36	-1.36
10	Fredrikstad	22	5	8	9	18	22	31	-9	22.91	-4.91
11	Sogndal	22	5	6	11	16	25	33	-8	20.86	-4.86
12	Molde	22	4	8	10	16	26	41	-15	19.61	-3.61

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Viking	1289	29	23.42	+5.58	94.8%	8	17	21	23	26	30	36
Valerenga	1277	24	24.61	-0.61	48.9%	11	18	22	25	27	31	37
Lillestrom	1257	25	22.09	+2.91	81.8%	9	16	20	22	25	28	35
Rosenborg	1241	23	22.04	+0.96	64.8%	9	16	20	22	25	28	36
Bryne	1223	26	22.06	+3.94	87.9%	8	16	19	22	25	28	35
Moss	1219	20	21.40	-1.40	40.4%	8	15	19	21	24	28	35
Hamarkameratene	1217	24	22.27	+1.73	72.4%	9	16	20	22	25	28	36
Fredrikstad	1206	18	22.91	-4.91	11.8%	9	17	20	23	25	29	36
Start	1203	20	21.36	-1.36	41.2%	9	15	19	21	24	28	35
Sogndal	1195	16	20.86	-4.86	12.1%	6	15	18	21	23	27	34
Mjondalen	1192	23	21.38	+1.62	71.8%	7	15	19	21	24	28	34
Molde	1157	16	19.61	-3.61	20.1%	6	14	17	20	22	26	33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRY	FRE	HAM	LIL	MJO	MOL	MOS	ROS	SOG	STA	VAL	VIK
Bryne	—	1-1-0 2.67	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.63	0-1-1 2.81	2-0-0 2.94	0-2-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.95	0-1-1 2.92	2-0-0 2.35	1-1-0 2.50
Fredrikstad	0-1-1 2.75	—	1-0-1 2.81	0-0-2 2.90	1-0-1 2.83	1-1-0 3.09	0-2-0 2.86	0-2-0 2.85	1-1-0 2.98	0-1-1 2.99	0-0-2 2.46	1-0-1 2.78
Hamarkameratene	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 2.62	—	1-0-1 2.69	0-1-1 2.87	2-0-0 2.98	1-1-0 2.80	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.97	2-0-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.58
Lillestrom	1-0-1 2.80	2-0-0 2.55	1-0-1 2.73	—	2-0-0 2.77	1-0-1 2.97	0-2-0 2.87	2-0-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.74	0-1-1 2.41	0-0-2 2.53
Mjondalen	1-1-0 2.62	1-0-1 2.60	1-1-0 2.56	0-0-2 2.66	—	1-1-0 2.96	1-0-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.60	1-1-0 2.73	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.33	1-1-0 2.35
Molde	0-0-2 2.49	0-1-1 2.35	0-0-2 2.45	1-0-1 2.47	0-1-1 2.47	—	1-0-1 2.47	1-1-0 2.33	0-2-0 2.55	0-1-1 2.45	1-1-0 2.01	0-1-1 2.24
Moss	0-2-0 2.65	0-2-0 2.57	0-1-1 2.63	0-2-0 2.56	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.97	—	0-1-1 2.61	1-0-1 2.80	2-0-0 2.73	1-0-1 2.26	0-0-2 2.44
Rosenborg	1-0-1 2.76	0-2-0 2.58	2-0-0 2.61	0-0-2 2.72	1-0-1 2.83	0-1-1 3.11	1-1-0 2.83	—	1-1-0 2.89	0-2-0 2.85	1-0-1 2.37	0-2-0 2.51
Sogndal	1-0-1 2.48	0-1-1 2.46	1-0-1 2.46	1-0-1 2.54	0-1-1 2.70	0-2-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.63	0-1-1 2.54	—	1-0-1 2.65	0-0-2 2.34	0-1-1 2.49
Start	1-1-0 2.52	1-1-0 2.44	0-0-2 2.59	1-0-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.61	1-1-0 2.98	0-0-2 2.70	0-2-0 2.58	1-0-1 2.78	—	0-1-1 2.47	0-0-2 2.57
Valerenga	0-0-2 3.09	2-0-0 2.97	1-0-1 3.02	1-1-0 3.02	1-0-1 3.11	0-1-1 3.44	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 3.07	2-0-0 3.09	1-1-0 2.97	—	0-1-1 2.79
Viking	0-1-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.65	1-0-1 2.85	2-0-0 2.90	0-1-1 3.08	1-1-0 3.21	2-0-0 3.00	0-2-0 2.93	1-1-0 2.96	2-0-0 2.86	1-1-0 2.64	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.56	+5.9
Allowed	0.45	-4.9
Differential	0.68	+3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.58%	10.61%	4.92%	1.89%	1.14%	—	26.14%
1	10.61%	12.12%	9.47%	2.65%	1.52%	0.38%	36.74%
2	4.92%	9.47%	5.30%	0.76%	1.52%	0.38%	22.35%
3	1.89%	2.65%	0.76%	2.27%	0.38%	0.38%	8.33%
4	1.14%	1.52%	1.52%	0.38%	—	0.38%	4.92%
5+	—	0.38%	0.38%	0.38%	0.38%	—	1.52%
Total	26.14%	36.74%	22.35%	8.33%	4.92%	1.52%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.34	+0.00
SD	1.21	1.21	1.56
CV	0.90	0.90	—
Max	7	7	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
1	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	50.00%
2	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	31.82%	13.64%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.14	+0.00
SD	0.89	1.13	1.35
CV	0.78	0.99	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	13.64%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	50.00%
1	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	36.36%	36.36%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.41	-0.41
SD	1.27	1.01	1.44
CV	1.27	0.72	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	18.18%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	—	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	59.09%	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.59	-0.09
SD	1.34	1.37	1.77
CV	0.89	0.86	—
Max	5	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	18.18%	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	27.27%	27.27%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.18	+0.41
SD	1.68	1.22	1.74
CV	1.06	1.03	—
Max	7	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	18.18%	22.73%	9.09%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	1.45	-0.18
SD	1.08	1.44	1.87
CV	0.85	0.99	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	54.55%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	31.82%	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.86	-0.68
SD	0.91	1.78	1.32
CV	0.77	0.96	—
Max	4	7	+1
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
1	—	13.64%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	45.45%	36.36%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.18	+0.05
SD	1.15	0.73	1.21
CV	0.94	0.62	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	22.73%	—	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	59.09%	18.18%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.32	+0.14
SD	1.14	1.09	1.64
CV	0.79	0.82	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	4.55%	22.73%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	31.82%	27.27%	13.64%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.50	-0.36
SD	1.04	1.26	1.33
CV	0.91	0.84	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	50.00%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	22.73%	22.73%	18.18%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	1.45	-0.18
SD	1.12	1.37	1.50
CV	0.88	0.94	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	0.95	+0.64
SD	1.59	0.90	1.76
CV	1.00	0.94	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	40.91%	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.09	+0.68
SD	1.11	0.87	1.36
CV	0.63	0.80	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Viking	29	23.42	+5.58
2	Bryne	26	22.06	+3.94
3	Lillestrom	25	22.09	+2.91
4	Hamarkameratene	24	22.27	+1.73
5	Mjondalen	23	21.38	+1.62

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Fredrikstad	18	22.91	-4.91
2	Sogndal	16	20.86	-4.86
3	Molde	16	19.61	-3.61
4	Moss	20	21.40	-1.40
5	Start	20	21.36	-1.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lillestrom	4	Aug 29 – Sep 19	1 in 55
2	Valerenga	4	Apr 25 – May 16	1 in 49
3	Hamarkameratene	3	May 23 – Jun 6	1 in 39
4	Bryne	3	Aug 22 – Sep 5	1 in 26
5	Viking	3	May 2 – May 16	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valerenga	4	May 20 – Jun 6	1 in 224
2	Lillestrom	4	May 2 – May 20	1 in 66
3	Start	3	Aug 29 – Sep 12	1 in 34
4	Rosenborg	3	Sep 5 – Sep 19	1 in 27
5	Bryne	3	Jun 27 – Aug 1	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Viking	9	May 31 – Aug 22	1 in 52
2	Lillestrom	7	Jun 6 – Aug 15	1 in 39
3	Hamarkameratene	6	Jun 30 – Aug 29	1 in 24
4	Bryne	7	Apr 25 – May 31	1 in 23
5	Rosenborg	7	Jun 27 – Aug 29	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Start	10	Jun 30 – Sep 26	1 in 76
2	Fredrikstad	9	Jun 30 – Sep 19	1 in 53
3	Molde	9	Jun 13 – Sep 5	1 in 40
4	Sogndal	6	Apr 25 – May 23	1 in 15
5	Valerenga	4	May 20 – Jun 6	1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Viking	15.33%	13.34%	11.54%	10.23%	9.54%	7.90%	7.44%	6.95%	6.12%	4.62%	4.23%	2.76%
Bryne	7.29%	8.49%	8.44%	8.86%	8.84%	8.70%	8.63%	9.03%	8.79%	8.00%	8.25%	6.68%
Lillestrom	8.14%	9.44%	9.28%	9.07%	9.22%	9.06%	8.73%	8.20%	8.17%	7.50%	7.12%	6.07%
Valerenga	24.13%	16.30%	12.38%	10.21%	8.20%	6.89%	5.85%	4.79%	4.14%	3.36%	2.19%	1.56%
Hamarkameratene	7.63%	8.60%	8.99%	8.99%	9.10%	8.98%	9.21%	8.77%	8.32%	7.75%	7.09%	6.57%
Rosenborg	7.29%	8.28%	9.42%	9.18%	8.96%	9.10%	8.80%	8.41%	8.37%	8.31%	7.52%	6.36%
Mjondalen	5.04%	6.17%	6.98%	7.30%	8.47%	8.78%	8.96%	8.78%	9.77%	9.70%	10.15%	9.90%
Moss	5.33%	6.61%	7.33%	7.97%	8.61%	8.81%	9.26%	9.01%	9.23%	9.70%	9.34%	8.80%
Start	4.93%	5.93%	7.15%	7.71%	8.12%	8.48%	8.43%	9.72%	9.54%	10.32%	9.75%	9.92%
Fredrikstad	9.33%	9.49%	9.34%	9.96%	8.87%	9.57%	8.90%	8.41%	7.26%	6.83%	6.53%	5.51%
Sogndal	3.74%	4.74%	5.63%	6.61%	6.97%	8.02%	8.61%	9.17%	10.31%	11.23%	12.18%	12.79%
Molde	1.82%	2.61%	3.52%	3.91%	5.10%	5.71%	7.18%	8.76%	9.98%	12.68%	15.65%	23.08%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+19.70%

Clear Edge

46.21%27.27%26.52%

Elo Value

Home Edge

195 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

069.34500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.36 goals

Neutral

-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.1

Wide Open

124611

Champion Preseason Odds

15%

Viking, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.14/gm

Photo Finish

00.090.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3 * Some Luck: 3 to 4.5 * Lucky: 4.5 to 6 * Wild Swing: 6 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.61 * Close: 2.61 to 3.92 * Off: 3.92 to 5.22 * Way Off: 5.22 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.25 points

Some Luck

03.759

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

Pinpoint

03.268

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

94.83%

Viking

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

11.77%

Fredrikstad

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.10

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.86

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

56%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

68%

Even

50%68%100%

Close Games

Expected

70%

Very Frequent

0%66%100%

Blowouts

Expected

11%

Occasional

0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.37

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.75

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.14

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

28%

Shaky Favorites

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.88

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.29

Overconfident

0.08198771.001.91801

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.088

Well Within Noise

00.1140.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Valerenga	92.89%	3.36%	3.75%
Viking	88.39%	4.62%	6.99%
Fredrikstad	81.13%	6.83%	12.04%
Lillestrom	79.31%	7.50%	13.19%
Hamarkameratene	78.59%	7.75%	13.66%
Rosenborg	77.81%	8.31%	13.88%
Bryne	77.07%	8.00%	14.93%
Moss	72.16%	9.70%	18.14%
Start	70.01%	10.32%	19.67%
Mjondalen	70.25%	9.70%	20.05%
Sogndal	63.80%	11.23%	24.97%
Molde	48.59%	12.68%	38.73%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1982-04-25	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1216	1225	48.1%	28.6%	23.3%	+3.8	2
1982-04-25	@ Bryne	L 0-1	1225	1216	23.3%	28.6%	48.1%	-3.8	0
1982-04-25	Viking	W 2-0	1253	1224	52.4%	28.0%	19.6%	+6.3	2
1982-04-25	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1224	1253	19.6%	28.0%	52.4%	-6.3	0
1982-04-25	Moss	W 2-1	1229	1218	50.4%	28.3%	21.3%	+3.4	2
1982-04-25	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	1218	1229	21.3%	28.3%	50.4%	-3.4	0
1982-04-25	Mjondalen	W 2-1	1220	1204	51.0%	28.2%	20.8%	+3.3	2
1982-04-25	@ Lillestrom	L 1-2	1204	1220	20.8%	28.2%	51.0%	-3.3	0
1982-04-25	Molde	D 1-1	1224	1194	52.5%	28.0%	19.5%	-1.0	1
1982-04-25	@ Sogndal	D 1-1	1194	1224	19.5%	28.0%	52.5%	+1.0	1
1982-04-25	Valerenga	L 0-2	1220	1248	45.8%	28.8%	25.5%	-12.1	0
1982-04-25	@ Start	W 2-0	1248	1220	25.5%	28.8%	45.8%	+12.1	2
1982-05-02	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1200	1233	45.2%	28.8%	26.0%	+4.2	2
1982-05-02	@ Mjondalen	L 0-1	1233	1200	26.0%	28.8%	45.2%	-4.2	2
1982-05-02	Lillestrom	W 2-1	1195	1224	45.6%	28.8%	25.6%	+3.9	3
1982-05-02	@ Molde	L 1-2	1224	1195	25.6%	28.8%	45.6%	-3.9	2
1982-05-02	Bryne	D 1-1	1214	1220	48.4%	28.6%	23.1%	-0.8	1
1982-05-02	@ Moss	D 1-1	1220	1214	23.1%	28.6%	48.4%	+0.8	3
1982-05-02	Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1221	1260	44.4%	28.8%	26.7%	-0.4	1
1982-05-02	@ Rosenborg	D 2-2	1260	1221	26.7%	28.8%	44.4%	+0.4	3
1982-05-02	Sogndal	W 5-2	1260	1223	53.2%	27.9%	18.9%	+6.5	4
1982-05-02	@ Valerenga	L 2-5	1223	1260	18.9%	27.9%	53.2%	-6.5	1
1982-05-02	Start	W 3-1	1218	1208	50.2%	28.3%	21.4%	+5.9	2
1982-05-02	@ Viking	L 1-3	1208	1218	21.4%	28.3%	50.2%	-5.9	0
1982-05-09	Mjondalen	D 0-0	1221	1205	51.0%	28.2%	20.8%	-1.0	4
1982-05-09	@ Bryne	D 0-0	1205	1221	20.8%	28.2%	51.0%	+1.0	3
1982-05-09	Molde	W 2-1	1228	1199	52.4%	28.0%	19.5%	+3.1	4
1982-05-09	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	1199	1228	19.5%	28.0%	52.4%	-3.1	3
1982-05-09	Valerenga	L 0-2	1220	1266	43.4%	28.9%	27.8%	-11.5	2
1982-05-09	@ Lillestrom	W 2-0	1266	1220	27.8%	28.9%	43.4%	+11.6	6
1982-05-09	Rosenborg	D 2-2	1214	1221	48.2%	28.6%	23.2%	-0.6	2
1982-05-09	@ Moss	D 2-2	1221	1214	23.2%	28.6%	48.2%	+0.5	2
1982-05-09	Viking	L 0-1	1216	1224	48.2%	28.6%	23.2%	-6.7	1
1982-05-09	@ Sogndal	W 1-0	1224	1216	23.2%	28.6%	48.2%	+6.7	4
1982-05-09	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1202	1260	41.9%	28.9%	29.2%	+4.6	2
1982-05-09	@ Start	L 0-1	1260	1202	29.2%	28.9%	41.9%	-4.6	3
1982-05-16	Sogndal	W 2-1	1255	1210	54.1%	27.7%	18.1%	+3.0	5
1982-05-16	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1210	1255	18.1%	27.7%	54.1%	-3.0	1
1982-05-16	Moss	W 1-0	1206	1213	48.2%	28.6%	23.2%	+3.8	5
1982-05-16	@ Mjondalen	L 0-1	1213	1206	23.2%	28.6%	48.2%	-3.8	2
1982-05-16	Bryne	L 0-1	1196	1220	46.2%	28.7%	25.1%	-6.4	3
1982-05-16	@ Molde	W 1-0	1220	1196	25.1%	28.7%	46.2%	+6.4	6
1982-05-16	Start	D 1-1	1221	1207	50.8%	28.3%	20.9%	-0.9	3
1982-05-16	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1207	1221	20.9%	28.3%	50.8%	+0.9	3
1982-05-16	Hamarkameratene	W 4-2	1278	1232	54.2%	27.7%	18.1%	+4.5	8
1982-05-16	@ Valerenga	L 2-4	1232	1278	18.1%	27.7%	54.2%	-4.6	4
1982-05-16	Lillestrom	W 4-1	1230	1208	51.6%	28.2%	20.2%	+7.9	6
1982-05-16	@ Viking	L 1-4	1208	1230	20.2%	28.2%	51.6%	-7.9	2
1982-05-20	Viking	D 1-1	1227	1238	47.7%	28.6%	23.7%	-0.7	7
1982-05-20	@ Bryne	D 1-1	1238	1227	23.7%	28.6%	47.7%	+0.7	7
1982-05-20	Fredrikstad	L 3-4	1227	1258	45.3%	28.8%	25.9%	-5.5	4
1982-05-20	@ Hamarkameratene	W 4-3	1258	1227	25.9%	28.8%	45.3%	+5.5	7
1982-05-20	Start	L 0-1	1200	1208	48.2%	28.6%	23.2%	-6.7	2
1982-05-20	@ Lillestrom	W 1-0	1208	1200	23.2%	28.6%	48.2%	+6.7	5
1982-05-20	Molde	W 4-1	1209	1189	51.4%	28.2%	20.4%	+8.0	7
1982-05-20	@ Mjondalen	L 1-4	1189	1209	20.4%	28.2%	51.4%	-8.0	3
1982-05-20	Valerenga	W 3-2	1209	1282	39.9%	28.9%	31.2%	+4.3	4
1982-05-20	@ Moss	L 2-3	1282	1209	31.2%	28.9%	39.9%	-4.3	8
1982-05-20	Rosenborg	D 3-3	1207	1221	47.5%	28.6%	23.9%	-0.4	2
1982-05-20	@ Sogndal	D 3-3	1221	1207	23.9%	28.6%	47.5%	+0.4	4
1982-05-23	Lillestrom	L 1-2	1264	1194	56.7%	27.2%	16.2%	-7.3	7
1982-05-23	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-1	1194	1264	16.2%	27.2%	56.7%	+7.2	4
1982-05-23	Moss	W 1-0	1181	1214	45.2%	28.8%	26.0%	+4.2	5
1982-05-23	@ Molde	L 0-1	1214	1181	26.0%	28.8%	45.2%	-4.2	4
1982-05-23	Mjondalen	W 3-1	1221	1217	49.5%	28.4%	22.1%	+6.0	6
1982-05-23	@ Rosenborg	L 1-3	1217	1221	22.1%	28.4%	49.5%	-6.0	7
1982-05-23	Sogndal	W 1-0	1214	1206	50.0%	28.4%	21.6%	+3.6	7
1982-05-23	@ Start	L 0-1	1206	1214	21.6%	28.4%	50.0%	-3.6	2
1982-05-23	Bryne	L 1-2	1278	1226	54.9%	27.6%	17.6%	-7.1	8
1982-05-23	@ Valerenga	W 2-1	1226	1278	17.6%	27.6%	54.9%	+7.0	9
1982-05-23	Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	1239	1222	51.1%	28.2%	20.7%	-6.6	7
1982-05-23	@ Viking	W 2-1	1222	1239	20.7%	28.2%	51.1%	+6.6	6
1982-05-31	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1233	1257	46.2%	28.7%	25.0%	+7.7	11
1982-05-31	@ Bryne	L 0-2	1257	1233	25.0%	28.7%	46.2%	-7.7	7
1982-05-31	Start	W 5-3	1228	1218	50.3%	28.3%	21.4%	+5.0	8
1982-05-31	@ Hamarkameratene	L 3-5	1218	1228	21.4%	28.3%	50.3%	-5.0	7
1982-05-31	Sogndal	L 0-1	1201	1203	48.9%	28.5%	22.6%	-6.8	4
1982-05-31	@ Lillestrom	W 1-0	1203	1201	22.6%	28.5%	48.9%	+6.8	4
1982-05-31	Valerenga	W 1-0	1211	1271	41.6%	28.9%	29.4%	+4.6	9
1982-05-31	@ Mjondalen	L 0-1	1271	1211	29.4%	28.9%	41.6%	-4.6	8
1982-05-31	Rosenborg	D 1-1	1185	1227	44.0%	28.9%	27.1%	-0.5	6
1982-05-31	@ Molde	D 1-1	1227	1185	27.1%	28.9%	44.0%	+0.5	7
1982-05-31	Viking	L 0-1	1209	1232	46.3%	28.7%	24.9%	-6.5	4
1982-05-31	@ Moss	W 1-0	1232	1209	24.9%	28.7%	46.3%	+6.5	9
1982-06-06	Moss	D 1-1	1249	1203	54.2%	27.7%	18.1%	-1.1	8
1982-06-06	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1203	1249	18.1%	27.7%	54.2%	+1.1	5
1982-06-06	Lillestrom	L 0-2	1227	1194	52.8%	28.0%	19.2%	-13.7	7
1982-06-06	@ Rosenborg	W 2-0	1194	1227	19.2%	28.0%	52.8%	+13.7	6
1982-06-06	Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	1210	1233	46.3%	28.7%	25.0%	-6.1	4
1982-06-06	@ Sogndal	W 2-1	1233	1210	25.0%	28.7%	46.3%	+6.1	10
1982-06-06	Bryne	W 2-1	1213	1241	45.8%	28.8%	25.5%	+3.9	9
1982-06-06	@ Start	L 1-2	1241	1213	25.5%	28.8%	45.8%	-3.9	11
1982-06-06	Molde	L 1-2	1267	1185	57.8%	26.9%	15.3%	-7.4	8
1982-06-06	@ Valerenga	W 2-1	1185	1267	15.3%	26.9%	57.8%	+7.4	8
1982-06-06	Mjondalen	D 2-2	1239	1216	51.7%	28.1%	20.2%	-0.7	10
1982-06-06	@ Viking	D 2-2	1216	1239	20.2%	28.1%	51.7%	+0.7	10
1982-06-13	Sogndal	W 1-0	1237	1203	52.8%	28.0%	19.2%	+3.3	13
1982-06-13	@ Bryne	L 0-1	1203	1237	19.2%	28.0%	52.8%	-3.3	4
1982-06-13	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1208	1239	45.3%	28.8%	25.9%	+4.2	8
1982-06-13	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	1239	1208	25.9%	28.8%	45.3%	-4.2	10
1982-06-13	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1217	1248	45.3%	28.8%	25.9%	+7.9	12
1982-06-13	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	1248	1217	25.9%	28.8%	45.3%	-7.9	8
1982-06-13	Viking	L 1-3	1192	1238	43.5%	28.9%	27.7%	-10.0	8
1982-06-13	@ Molde	W 3-1	1238	1192	27.7%	28.9%	43.5%	+10.0	12
1982-06-13	Start	W 3-1	1204	1217	47.6%	28.6%	23.8%	+6.4	7
1982-06-13	@ Moss	L 1-3	1217	1204	23.8%	28.6%	47.6%	-6.4	9
1982-06-13	Rosenborg	W 5-1	1259	1214	54.1%	27.7%	18.1%	+9.3	10
1982-06-13	@ Valerenga	L 1-5	1214	1259	18.1%	27.7%	54.1%	-9.3	7
1982-06-27	Molde	W 2-1	1240	1182	55.4%	27.5%	17.1%	+2.8	10
1982-06-27	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1182	1240	17.1%	27.5%	55.4%	-2.8	8
1982-06-27	Rosenborg	L 0-4	1235	1204	52.5%	28.0%	19.4%	-25.8	10
1982-06-27	@ Hamarkameratene	W 4-0	1204	1235	19.4%	28.0%	52.5%	+25.8	9
1982-06-27	Bryne	W 1-0	1212	1240	45.7%	28.8%	25.5%	+4.1	10
1982-06-27	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	1240	1212	25.5%	28.8%	45.7%	-4.1	13
1982-06-27	Moss	W 2-1	1200	1210	47.9%	28.6%	23.5%	+3.7	6
1982-06-27	@ Sogndal	L 1-2	1210	1200	23.5%	28.6%	47.9%	-3.7	7
1982-06-27	Mjondalen	W 3-0	1210	1225	47.4%	28.6%	23.9%	+10.8	11
1982-06-27	@ Start	L 0-3	1225	1210	23.9%	28.6%	47.4%	-10.8	12
1982-06-27	Valerenga	D 0-0	1248	1268	46.7%	28.7%	24.6%	-0.7	13
1982-06-27	@ Viking	D 0-0	1268	1248	24.6%	28.7%	46.7%	+0.7	11
1982-06-30	Hamarkameratene	L 1-3	1236	1209	52.1%	28.1%	19.8%	-11.7	13
1982-06-30	@ Bryne	W 3-1	1209	1236	19.8%	28.1%	52.1%	+11.7	12
1982-06-30	Sogndal	W 2-1	1214	1204	50.2%	28.3%	21.4%	+3.4	14
1982-06-30	@ Mjondalen	L 1-2	1204	1214	21.4%	28.3%	50.2%	-3.4	6
1982-06-30	Start	D 0-0	1180	1221	44.0%	28.9%	27.2%	-0.5	9
1982-06-30	@ Molde	D 0-0	1221	1180	27.2%	28.9%	44.0%	+0.5	12
1982-06-30	Lillestrom	D 0-0	1207	1216	48.0%	28.6%	23.4%	-0.8	8
1982-06-30	@ Moss	D 0-0	1216	1207	23.4%	28.6%	48.0%	+0.8	11
1982-06-30	Viking	D 1-1	1230	1248	47.0%	28.7%	24.3%	-0.7	10
1982-06-30	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1248	1230	24.3%	28.7%	47.0%	+0.7	14
1982-06-30	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1269	1243	52.1%	28.1%	19.8%	+3.4	13
1982-06-30	@ Valerenga	L 0-1	1243	1269	19.8%	28.1%	52.1%	-3.4	10
1982-08-01	Lillestrom	L 2-4	1217	1217	49.1%	28.5%	22.4%	-9.9	14
1982-08-01	@ Mjondalen	W 4-2	1217	1217	22.4%	28.5%	49.1%	+9.9	13
1982-08-01	Sogndal	D 0-0	1179	1200	46.5%	28.7%	24.8%	-0.7	10
1982-08-01	@ Molde	D 0-0	1200	1179	24.8%	28.7%	46.5%	+0.7	7
1982-08-01	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1206	1221	47.3%	28.6%	24.0%	-0.7	9
1982-08-01	@ Moss	D 1-1	1221	1206	24.0%	28.6%	47.3%	+0.7	13
1982-08-01	Bryne	W 2-1	1230	1224	49.7%	28.4%	21.9%	+3.5	12
1982-08-01	@ Rosenborg	L 1-2	1224	1230	21.9%	28.4%	49.7%	-3.4	13
1982-08-01	Start	D 1-1	1273	1222	54.7%	27.6%	17.7%	-1.1	14
1982-08-01	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	1222	1273	17.7%	27.6%	54.7%	+1.1	13
1982-08-01	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1248	1239	50.1%	28.4%	21.5%	+6.8	16
1982-08-01	@ Viking	L 0-2	1239	1248	21.5%	28.4%	50.1%	-6.8	10
1982-08-08	Moss	D 0-0	1221	1205	50.9%	28.3%	20.9%	-1.0	14
1982-08-08	@ Bryne	D 0-0	1205	1221	20.9%	28.3%	50.9%	+1.0	10
1982-08-08	Rosenborg	D 1-1	1233	1233	49.0%	28.5%	22.5%	-0.8	11
1982-08-08	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1233	1233	22.5%	28.5%	49.0%	+0.8	13
1982-08-08	Mjondalen	D 1-1	1222	1207	50.7%	28.3%	21.0%	-0.9	14
1982-08-08	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1207	1222	21.0%	28.3%	50.7%	+0.9	15
1982-08-08	Molde	W 7-4	1227	1178	54.4%	27.7%	17.9%	+5.4	15
1982-08-08	@ Lillestrom	L 4-7	1178	1227	17.9%	27.7%	54.4%	-5.5	10
1982-08-08	Valerenga	L 0-1	1201	1271	40.2%	28.9%	30.8%	-5.8	7
1982-08-08	@ Sogndal	W 1-0	1271	1201	30.8%	28.9%	40.2%	+5.8	16
1982-08-08	Viking	L 0-2	1223	1255	45.2%	28.8%	26.0%	-11.9	13
1982-08-08	@ Start	W 2-0	1255	1223	26.0%	28.8%	45.2%	+11.9	18
1982-08-15	Start	D 0-0	1232	1211	51.5%	28.2%	20.4%	-1.0	12
1982-08-15	@ Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1211	1232	20.4%	28.2%	51.5%	+1.0	14
1982-08-15	Bryne	W 3-0	1208	1220	47.7%	28.6%	23.6%	+10.6	17
1982-08-15	@ Mjondalen	L 0-3	1220	1208	23.6%	28.6%	47.7%	-10.7	14
1982-08-15	Hamarkameratene	L 1-3	1173	1221	43.2%	28.9%	27.9%	-10.0	10
1982-08-15	@ Molde	W 3-1	1221	1173	27.9%	28.9%	43.2%	+10.0	16
1982-08-15	Moss	W 2-1	1234	1206	52.2%	28.1%	19.7%	+3.2	15
1982-08-15	@ Rosenborg	L 1-2	1206	1234	19.7%	28.1%	52.2%	-3.2	10
1982-08-15	Lillestrom	D 1-1	1277	1232	54.1%	27.7%	18.2%	-1.1	17
1982-08-15	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	1232	1277	18.2%	27.7%	54.1%	+1.1	16
1982-08-15	Sogndal	D 3-3	1267	1195	56.8%	27.1%	16.1%	-0.8	19
1982-08-15	@ Viking	D 3-3	1195	1267	16.1%	27.1%	56.8%	+0.8	8
1982-08-22	Molde	W 3-2	1209	1163	54.2%	27.7%	18.1%	+2.8	16
1982-08-22	@ Bryne	L 2-3	1163	1209	18.1%	27.7%	54.2%	-2.8	10
1982-08-22	Valerenga	W 1-0	1231	1276	43.5%	28.9%	27.6%	+4.4	18
1982-08-22	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1276	1231	27.6%	28.9%	43.5%	-4.4	17
1982-08-22	Viking	L 1-2	1233	1266	45.1%	28.8%	26.1%	-6.0	16
1982-08-22	@ Lillestrom	W 2-1	1266	1233	26.1%	28.8%	45.1%	+6.0	21
1982-08-22	Mjondalen	W 2-0	1203	1219	47.2%	28.7%	24.1%	+7.5	12
1982-08-22	@ Moss	L 0-2	1219	1203	24.1%	28.7%	47.2%	-7.4	17
1982-08-22	Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1196	1231	44.9%	28.8%	26.3%	-0.4	9
1982-08-22	@ Sogndal	D 2-2	1231	1196	26.3%	28.8%	44.9%	+0.4	13
1982-08-22	Rosenborg	D 1-1	1212	1237	46.1%	28.7%	25.2%	-0.6	15
1982-08-22	@ Start	D 1-1	1237	1212	25.2%	28.7%	46.1%	+0.6	16
1982-08-29	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1231	1235	48.6%	28.5%	22.8%	-6.7	13
1982-08-29	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1235	1231	22.8%	28.5%	48.6%	+6.7	20
1982-08-29	Mjondalen	D 2-2	1160	1211	42.8%	28.9%	28.3%	-0.3	11
1982-08-29	@ Molde	D 2-2	1211	1160	28.3%	28.9%	42.8%	+0.3	18
1982-08-29	Sogndal	W 2-1	1238	1196	53.8%	27.8%	18.4%	+3.0	18
1982-08-29	@ Rosenborg	L 1-2	1196	1238	18.4%	27.8%	53.8%	-3.0	9
1982-08-29	Lillestrom	L 0-1	1211	1227	47.2%	28.7%	24.1%	-6.6	15
1982-08-29	@ Start	W 1-0	1227	1211	24.1%	28.7%	47.2%	+6.6	18
1982-08-29	Moss	W 2-0	1272	1211	55.8%	27.4%	16.9%	+5.5	19
1982-08-29	@ Valerenga	L 0-2	1211	1272	16.9%	27.4%	55.8%	-5.5	12
1982-08-29	Bryne	L 1-2	1272	1212	55.7%	27.4%	16.9%	-7.1	21
1982-08-29	@ Viking	W 2-1	1212	1272	16.9%	27.4%	55.7%	+7.2	18
1982-09-05	Valerenga	W 1-0	1219	1277	41.8%	28.9%	29.2%	+4.6	20
1982-09-05	@ Bryne	L 0-1	1277	1219	29.2%	28.9%	41.8%	-4.6	19
1982-09-05	Viking	L 1-4	1242	1265	46.3%	28.7%	25.0%	-14.9	20
1982-09-05	@ Hamarkameratene	W 4-1	1265	1242	25.0%	28.7%	46.3%	+14.9	23
1982-09-05	Fredrikstad	W 4-0	1234	1224	50.2%	28.3%	21.4%	+12.9	20
1982-09-05	@ Lillestrom	L 0-4	1224	1234	21.4%	28.3%	50.2%	-12.9	13
1982-09-05	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1212	1241	45.6%	28.8%	25.6%	+4.1	20
1982-09-05	@ Mjondalen	L 0-1	1241	1212	25.6%	28.8%	45.6%	-4.1	18
1982-09-05	Molde	W 4-1	1205	1160	54.1%	27.7%	18.2%	+7.2	14
1982-09-05	@ Moss	L 1-4	1160	1205	18.2%	27.7%	54.1%	-7.2	11
1982-09-05	Start	W 2-1	1193	1205	47.7%	28.6%	23.7%	+3.7	11
1982-09-05	@ Sogndal	L 1-2	1205	1193	23.7%	28.6%	47.7%	-3.7	15
1982-09-12	Bryne	D 1-1	1212	1224	47.7%	28.6%	23.7%	-0.7	14
1982-09-12	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1224	1212	23.7%	28.6%	47.7%	+0.7	21
1982-09-12	Molde	L 0-1	1236	1153	58.0%	26.8%	15.2%	-7.9	18
1982-09-12	@ Rosenborg	W 1-0	1153	1236	15.2%	26.8%	58.0%	+7.9	13
1982-09-12	Lillestrom	L 0-3	1196	1247	42.9%	28.9%	28.2%	-16.6	11
1982-09-12	@ Sogndal	W 3-0	1247	1196	28.2%	28.9%	42.9%	+16.6	22
1982-09-12	Hamarkameratene	L 1-3	1201	1227	46.0%	28.7%	25.2%	-10.5	15
1982-09-12	@ Start	W 3-1	1227	1201	25.2%	28.7%	46.0%	+10.5	22
1982-09-12	Mjondalen	W 4-0	1273	1216	55.3%	27.5%	17.2%	+10.7	21
1982-09-12	@ Valerenga	L 0-4	1216	1273	17.2%	27.5%	55.3%	-10.7	20
1982-09-12	Moss	W 2-1	1280	1212	56.4%	27.2%	16.4%	+2.7	25
1982-09-12	@ Viking	L 1-2	1212	1280	16.4%	27.2%	56.4%	-2.7	14
1982-09-19	Start	D 3-3	1224	1191	52.9%	28.0%	19.2%	-0.6	22
1982-09-19	@ Bryne	D 3-3	1191	1224	19.2%	28.0%	52.9%	+0.6	16
1982-09-19	Sogndal	L 0-1	1237	1180	55.4%	27.5%	17.2%	-7.5	22
1982-09-19	@ Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1180	1237	17.2%	27.5%	55.4%	+7.5	13
1982-09-19	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1263	1229	53.0%	27.9%	19.1%	+3.3	24
1982-09-19	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	1229	1263	19.1%	27.9%	53.0%	-3.3	18
1982-09-19	Viking	W 2-1	1205	1283	39.3%	28.9%	31.8%	+4.6	22
1982-09-19	@ Mjondalen	L 1-2	1283	1205	31.8%	28.9%	39.3%	-4.6	25
1982-09-19	Valerenga	D 1-1	1160	1283	33.0%	28.7%	38.4%	+0.1	14
1982-09-19	@ Molde	D 1-1	1283	1160	38.4%	28.7%	33.0%	-0.1	22
1982-09-19	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1210	1211	48.9%	28.5%	22.6%	-0.9	15
1982-09-19	@ Moss	D 0-0	1211	1210	22.6%	28.5%	48.9%	+0.9	15
1982-09-26	Mjondalen	W 4-2	1212	1210	49.3%	28.5%	22.2%	+5.4	17
1982-09-26	@ Fredrikstad	L 2-4	1210	1212	22.2%	28.5%	49.3%	-5.4	22
1982-09-26	Lillestrom	W 1-0	1230	1267	44.6%	28.8%	26.6%	+4.3	24
1982-09-26	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1267	1230	26.6%	28.8%	44.6%	-4.3	24
1982-09-26	Valerenga	W 1-0	1225	1283	41.9%	28.9%	29.2%	+4.6	20
1982-09-26	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	1283	1225	29.2%	28.9%	41.9%	-4.6	22
1982-09-26	Bryne	W 3-0	1187	1224	44.7%	28.8%	26.5%	+11.6	15
1982-09-26	@ Sogndal	L 0-3	1224	1187	26.5%	28.8%	44.7%	-11.6	22
1982-09-26	Moss	L 1-2	1191	1209	47.0%	28.7%	24.3%	-6.2	16
1982-09-26	@ Start	W 2-1	1209	1191	24.3%	28.7%	47.0%	+6.2	17
1982-09-26	Molde	D 1-1	1278	1161	61.1%	25.9%	13.0%	-1.5	26
1982-09-26	@ Viking	D 1-1	1161	1278	13.0%	25.9%	61.1%	+1.5	15
1982-10-03	Lillestrom	W 2-1	1212	1262	42.9%	28.9%	28.2%	+4.2	24
1982-10-03	@ Bryne	L 1-2	1262	1212	28.2%	28.9%	42.9%	-4.2	24
1982-10-03	Start	L 0-2	1204	1185	51.3%	28.2%	20.5%	-13.3	22
1982-10-03	@ Mjondalen	W 2-0	1185	1204	20.5%	28.2%	51.3%	+13.3	18
1982-10-03	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1162	1217	42.3%	28.9%	28.8%	-0.4	16
1982-10-03	@ Molde	D 0-0	1217	1162	28.8%	28.9%	42.3%	+0.4	18
1982-10-03	Sogndal	W 2-1	1215	1199	50.9%	28.3%	20.8%	+3.3	19
1982-10-03	@ Moss	L 1-2	1199	1215	20.8%	28.3%	50.9%	-3.3	15
1982-10-03	Hamarkameratene	W 3-0	1230	1234	48.6%	28.5%	22.9%	+10.4	22
1982-10-03	@ Rosenborg	L 0-3	1234	1230	22.9%	28.5%	48.6%	-10.4	24
1982-10-03	Viking	L 0-2	1279	1276	49.3%	28.5%	22.2%	-12.9	22
1982-10-03	@ Valerenga	W 2-0	1276	1279	22.2%	28.5%	49.3%	+12.9	28
1982-10-10	Valerenga	L 0-2	1218	1266	43.1%	28.9%	28.0%	-11.5	18
1982-10-10	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1266	1218	28.0%	28.9%	43.1%	+11.5	24
1982-10-10	Bryne	L 0-1	1224	1216	50.0%	28.4%	21.7%	-6.9	24
1982-10-10	@ Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1216	1224	21.7%	28.4%	50.0%	+6.9	26
1982-10-10	Moss	D 2-2	1258	1218	53.6%	27.8%	18.6%	-0.8	25
1982-10-10	@ Lillestrom	D 2-2	1218	1258	18.6%	27.8%	53.6%	+0.8	20
1982-10-10	Mjondalen	D 0-0	1196	1191	49.6%	28.4%	21.9%	-0.9	16
1982-10-10	@ Sogndal	D 0-0	1191	1196	21.9%	28.4%	49.6%	+0.9	23
1982-10-10	Molde	W 4-2	1198	1162	53.2%	27.9%	18.9%	+4.7	20
1982-10-10	@ Start	L 2-4	1162	1198	18.9%	27.9%	53.2%	-4.7	16
1982-10-10	Rosenborg	D 2-2	1289	1240	54.5%	27.7%	17.8%	-0.8	29
1982-10-10	@ Viking	D 2-2	1240	1289	17.8%	27.7%	54.5%	+0.8	23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1982-09-12	15.17%	Molde	1153	1	@ Rosenborg	1236	0
2	1982-06-06	15.34%	Molde	1185	2	@ Valerenga	1267	1
3	1982-05-23	16.17%	Lillestrom	1194	2	@ Fredrikstad	1264	1
4	1982-08-29	16.93%	Bryne	1212	2	@ Viking	1272	1
5	1982-09-19	17.15%	Sogndal	1180	1	@ Hamarkameratene	1237	0
6	1982-05-23	17.57%	Bryne	1226	2	@ Valerenga	1278	1
7	1982-06-06	19.20%	Lillestrom	1194	2	@ Rosenborg	1227	0
8	1982-06-27	19.45%	Rosenborg	1204	4	@ Hamarkameratene	1235	0
9	1982-06-30	19.81%	Hamarkameratene	1209	3	@ Bryne	1236	1
10	1982-10-03	20.51%	Start	1185	2	@ Mjondalen	1204	0
11	1982-05-23	20.66%	Hamarkameratene	1222	2	@ Viking	1239	1
12	1982-10-10	21.66%	Bryne	1216	1	@ Hamarkameratene	1224	0
13	1982-10-03	22.20%	Viking	1276	2	@ Valerenga	1279	0
14	1982-08-01	22.39%	Lillestrom	1217	4	@ Mjondalen	1217	2
15	1982-05-31	22.63%	Sogndal	1203	1	@ Lillestrom	1201	0
16	1982-08-29	22.84%	Hamarkameratene	1235	1	@ Fredrikstad	1231	0
17	1982-05-09	23.20%	Viking	1224	1	@ Sogndal	1216	0
18	1982-05-20	23.20%	Start	1208	1	@ Lillestrom	1200	0
19	1982-08-29	24.15%	Lillestrom	1227	1	@ Start	1211	0
20	1982-09-26	24.30%	Moss	1209	2	@ Start	1191	1
21	1982-05-31	24.95%	Viking	1232	1	@ Moss	1209	0
22	1982-09-05	24.96%	Viking	1265	4	@ Hamarkameratene	1242	1
23	1982-06-06	25.00%	Hamarkameratene	1233	2	@ Sogndal	1210	1
24	1982-05-16	25.10%	Bryne	1220	1	@ Molde	1196	0
25	1982-09-12	25.25%	Hamarkameratene	1227	3	@ Start	1201	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1982-06-27	25.76	Rosenborg	4	1204	19.45%	@ Hamarkameratene	0	1235	52.53%	28.01%
2	1982-09-12	16.62	Lillestrom	3	1247	28.23%	@ Sogndal	0	1196	42.87%	28.90%
3	1982-09-05	14.92	Viking	4	1265	24.96%	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1242	46.31%	28.73%
4	1982-06-06	13.65	Lillestrom	2	1194	19.20%	@ Rosenborg	0	1227	52.84%	27.96%
5	1982-10-03	13.30	Start	2	1185	20.51%	@ Mjondalen	0	1204	51.29%	28.21%
6	1982-09-05	12.88	@ Lillestrom	4	1234	50.20%	Fredrikstad	0	1224	21.45%	28.35%
7	1982-10-03	12.86	Viking	2	1276	22.20%	@ Valerenga	0	1279	49.34%	28.46%
8	1982-04-25	12.07	Valerenga	2	1248	25.48%	@ Start	0	1220	45.75%	28.77%
9	1982-08-08	11.94	Viking	2	1255	26.00%	@ Start	0	1223	45.20%	28.80%
10	1982-06-30	11.68	Hamarkameratene	3	1209	19.81%	@ Bryne	1	1236	52.10%	28.08%
11	1982-09-26	11.63	@ Sogndal	3	1187	44.69%	Bryne	0	1224	26.49%	28.83%
12	1982-05-09	11.55	Valerenga	2	1266	27.76%	@ Lillestrom	0	1220	43.36%	28.88%
13	1982-10-10	11.50	Valerenga	2	1266	27.97%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1218	43.14%	28.89%
14	1982-06-27	10.76	@ Start	3	1210	47.41%	Mjondalen	0	1225	23.94%	28.65%
15	1982-09-12	10.68	@ Valerenga	4	1273	55.31%	Mjondalen	0	1216	17.21%	27.48%
16	1982-08-15	10.66	@ Mjondalen	3	1208	47.73%	Bryne	0	1220	23.65%	28.62%
17	1982-09-12	10.50	Hamarkameratene	3	1227	25.25%	@ Start	1	1201	46.00%	28.75%
18	1982-10-03	10.38	@ Rosenborg	3	1230	48.60%	Hamarkameratene	0	1234	22.86%	28.53%
19	1982-06-13	10.01	Viking	3	1238	27.67%	@ Molde	1	1192	43.45%	28.88%
20	1982-08-15	9.97	Hamarkameratene	3	1221	27.92%	@ Molde	1	1173	43.20%	28.89%
21	1982-08-01	9.93	Lillestrom	4	1217	22.39%	@ Mjondalen	2	1217	49.13%	28.48%
22	1982-06-13	9.33	@ Valerenga	5	1259	54.12%	Rosenborg	1	1214	18.15%	27.73%
23	1982-05-20	7.99	@ Mjondalen	4	1209	51.40%	Molde	1	1189	20.41%	28.19%
24	1982-05-16	7.92	@ Viking	4	1230	51.63%	Lillestrom	1	1208	20.22%	28.16%
25	1982-06-13	7.87	@ Mjondalen	2	1217	45.33%	Fredrikstad	0	1248	25.87%	28.79%