Home / Leagues / Norway / First Division / 1981
‹ ›

1981 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Valerenga

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Viking

5.68 points above expected

28 points · 22.32 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyn Oslo

4.79 points below expected

13 points · 17.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valerenga 22 9 11 2 29 44 27 +17 24.21 +4.79
2 Viking 22 11 6 5 28 32 30 +2 22.32 +5.68
3 Rosenborg 22 9 8 5 26 35 24 +11 24.60 +1.40
4 Fredrikstad 22 9 7 6 25 45 26 +19 21.81 +3.19
5 Moss 22 8 8 6 24 27 27 0 23.81 +0.19
6 Hamarkameratene 22 8 6 8 22 25 21 +4 21.85 +0.15
7 Lillestrom 22 6 10 6 22 26 25 +1 23.04 -1.04
8 Start 22 8 5 9 21 36 38 -2 24.27 -3.27
9 Bryne 22 6 9 7 21 29 34 -5 22.49 -1.49
10 Brann 22 5 7 10 17 26 40 -14 17.81 -0.81
11 Haugar 22 2 12 8 16 20 38 -18 20.00 -4.00
12 Lyn Oslo 22 4 5 13 13 22 37 -15 17.79 -4.79

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Valerenga 1354 29 24.21 +4.79 93.2% 12 18 22 24 27 30 38
Fredrikstad 1350 25 21.81 +3.19 84.6% 8 16 19 22 24 28 36
Viking 1291 28 22.32 +5.68 95.7% 6 16 20 22 25 28 36
Hamarkameratene 1289 22 21.85 +0.15 56.7% 8 16 19 22 24 28 36
Rosenborg 1281 26 24.60 +1.40 70.0% 11 19 22 25 27 30 38
Lillestrom 1267 22 23.04 -1.04 43.7% 10 17 21 23 25 29 36
Start 1266 21 24.27 -3.27 22.2% 10 18 22 24 27 30 37
Moss 1263 24 23.81 +0.19 57.5% 10 18 21 24 26 30 38
Bryne 1257 21 22.49 -1.49 39.1% 11 17 20 22 25 28 36
Brann 1217 17 17.81 -0.81 47.2% 5 12 15 18 20 24 32
Lyn Oslo 1165 13 17.79 -4.79 11.2% 5 12 15 18 20 24 31
Haugar 1159 16 20.00 -4.00 16.6% 6 14 18 20 22 26 33

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA BRY FRE HAM HAU LIL LO MOS ROS STA VAL VIK
Brann —
1-1-0
1.90
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.14
1-1-0
2.43
1-1-0
1.82
1-0-1
2.36
0-0-2
2.09
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
1.83
0-1-1
1.84
0-0-2
2.28
Bryne
0-1-1
3.39
 —
1-1-0
2.44
0-0-2
2.79
0-2-0
2.83
1-0-1
2.66
1-1-0
3.34
1-1-0
2.44
0-1-1
2.26
2-0-0
2.33
0-1-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.59
Fredrikstad
1-1-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.81
 —
0-0-2
2.54
1-1-0
2.54
1-1-0
2.79
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.14
0-1-1
2.22
1-1-0
2.22
2-0-0
2.66
Hamarkameratene
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
2.46
2-0-0
2.71
 —
1-1-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
3.26
0-0-2
2.37
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.68
Haugar
0-1-1
2.82
0-2-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.70
0-1-1
2.54
 —
0-1-1
2.36
0-1-1
2.94
0-2-0
1.95
1-1-0
1.91
1-0-1
2.00
0-2-0
1.93
0-0-2
2.30
Lillestrom
0-1-1
3.46
1-0-1
2.59
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.82
1-1-0
2.89
 —
2-0-0
3.35
0-1-1
2.71
0-2-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.64
Lyn Oslo
1-0-1
2.89
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-2
2.26
0-1-1
2.00
1-1-0
2.31
0-0-2
1.92
 —
1-0-1
1.73
0-1-1
1.90
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
1.95
Moss
2-0-0
3.18
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
2.87
0-2-0
3.32
1-1-0
2.54
1-0-1
3.55
 —
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.55
0-2-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.88
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.33
1-1-0
2.99
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.15
0-1-1
3.37
0-2-0
2.85
1-1-0
3.38
1-1-0
2.61
 —
2-0-0
2.51
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.91
Start
1-1-0
3.45
0-0-2
2.92
1-1-0
3.04
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
2.65
1-1-0
3.38
1-0-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.75
 —
0-0-2
2.59
1-0-1
2.65
Valerenga
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
2.74
0-1-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.91
0-2-0
3.33
1-1-0
2.74
2-0-0
3.31
0-2-0
2.66
1-1-0
2.62
2-0-0
2.66
 —
0-2-0
2.80
Viking
2-0-0
2.98
1-1-0
2.66
0-0-2
2.58
1-1-0
2.56
2-0-0
2.96
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
3.32
1-1-0
2.37
2-0-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.60
0-2-0
2.45
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.54 +4.4
Allowed 0.46 -5.1
Differential 0.75 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%6.44%7.58%2.27%1.14%2.65%29.17%
16.44%15.15%4.92%2.27%0.38%—29.17%
27.58%4.92%11.36%1.52%1.52%0.76%27.65%
32.27%2.27%1.52%—0.38%0.38%6.82%
41.14%0.38%1.52%0.38%——3.41%
5+2.65%—0.76%0.38%——3.79%
Total29.17%29.17%27.65%6.82%3.41%3.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.32 1.32 1.96
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%40.91%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
24.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%——27.27%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%27.27%13.64%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.82 -0.64
SD 1.44 1.68 2.61
CV 1.21 0.92 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%———18.18%
19.09%18.18%9.09%4.55%——40.91%
29.09%4.55%13.64%—4.55%4.55%36.36%
3———————
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%22.73%31.82%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.55 -0.23
SD 0.95 1.37 1.34
CV 0.72 0.89 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
14.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%—22.73%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+13.64%—————13.64%
Total31.82%31.82%27.27%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.18 +0.86
SD 1.79 1.10 2.40
CV 0.87 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%13.64%———36.36%
19.09%13.64%9.09%———31.82%
213.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total36.36%31.82%31.82%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 0.95 +0.18
SD 1.25 0.84 1.53
CV 1.10 0.88 —
Max 5 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%——9.09%36.36%
1—31.82%—4.55%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%——27.27%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%45.45%22.73%9.09%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.73 -0.82
SD 0.81 1.61 1.92
CV 0.89 0.93 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%13.64%4.55%——45.45%
19.09%13.64%————22.73%
2—4.55%13.64%———18.18%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%27.27%36.36%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.14 +0.05
SD 1.56 0.94 1.79
CV 1.32 0.83 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%9.09%9.09%—4.55%50.00%
14.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
24.55%—4.55%9.09%4.55%—22.73%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.68 -0.68
SD 1.31 1.43 1.99
CV 1.31 0.85 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%———4.55%27.27%
14.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
213.64%9.09%9.09%———31.82%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%40.91%13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 0.97 1.34 1.75
CV 0.79 1.09 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
19.09%27.27%4.55%———40.91%
24.55%—4.55%———9.09%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
4——9.09%———9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%40.91%27.27%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.09 +0.50
SD 1.47 0.87 1.82
CV 0.92 0.80 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
113.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
24.55%—9.09%—4.55%4.55%22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%18.18%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total36.36%13.64%22.73%4.55%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.73 -0.09
SD 1.29 1.75 2.04
CV 0.79 1.01 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%————4.55%
14.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
29.09%9.09%31.82%———50.00%
34.55%—————4.55%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total22.73%31.82%45.45%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.23 +0.77
SD 1.15 0.81 1.34
CV 0.58 0.66 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
14.55%9.09%————13.64%
218.18%13.64%9.09%———40.91%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total36.36%27.27%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.36 +0.09
SD 1.30 1.56 2.24
CV 0.89 1.14 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Viking 28 22.32 +5.68
2 Valerenga 29 24.21 +4.79
3 Fredrikstad 25 21.81 +3.19
4 Rosenborg 26 24.60 +1.40
5 Moss 24 23.81 +0.19

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 13 17.79 -4.79
2 Haugar 16 20.00 -4.00
3 Start 21 24.27 -3.27
4 Bryne 21 22.49 -1.49
5 Lillestrom 22 23.04 -1.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 3 Sep 2 – Sep 27 1 in 122
2 Fredrikstad 3 Jun 8 – Jun 21 1 in 46
3 Viking 3 Oct 4 – Oct 18 1 in 32
4 Valerenga 3 Jul 6 – Jul 29 1 in 17
5 Hamarkameratene 2 May 3 – May 10 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamarkameratene 6 May 13 – Jun 29 1 in 830
2 Rosenborg 4 Sep 13 – Oct 11 1 in 337
3 Lyn Oslo 6 Aug 17 – Oct 4 1 in 152
4 Brann 6 Jul 13 – Aug 23 1 in 142
5 Moss 2 Aug 10 – Aug 17 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 6 Sep 2 – Oct 18 1 in 31
2 Valerenga 8 Jun 10 – Aug 10 1 in 17
3 Rosenborg 9 May 3 – Jun 29 1 in 16
4 Fredrikstad 9 Aug 10 – Oct 18 1 in 15
5 Moss 9 May 3 – Jul 6 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rosenborg 7 Aug 23 – Oct 18 1 in 26
2 Haugar 9 Jul 6 – Sep 13 1 in 20
3 Lillestrom 6 Aug 10 – Sep 27 1 in 11
4 Brann 8 Apr 26 – Jun 21 1 in 10
5 Hamarkameratene 6 May 13 – Jun 29 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Valerenga17.87%14.71%13.22%10.85%9.87%8.35%6.95%6.41%4.92%3.76%2.06%1.03%
Viking6.62%8.30%8.87%9.15%10.23%10.06%9.68%9.75%8.84%8.38%6.30%3.82%
Rosenborg19.75%15.31%12.79%10.89%10.30%8.01%6.72%5.76%4.37%3.20%2.17%0.73%
Fredrikstad5.75%7.96%8.57%9.12%9.20%10.28%9.94%10.09%9.43%8.76%6.50%4.40%
Moss12.98%11.72%11.23%11.21%10.01%9.30%9.67%7.52%6.50%5.08%3.29%1.49%
Hamarkameratene5.16%7.13%7.86%8.89%9.30%10.34%10.08%10.03%10.06%8.91%7.67%4.57%
Lillestrom8.85%9.46%10.55%11.33%9.96%10.14%9.69%8.98%7.63%5.97%4.95%2.49%
Start14.84%13.71%12.14%11.57%9.35%9.69%8.31%6.82%5.70%3.99%2.53%1.35%
Bryne5.84%7.85%8.80%8.94%10.65%9.76%10.34%10.20%9.74%8.21%6.15%3.52%
Brann0.44%0.85%1.16%2.02%2.94%3.21%4.90%7.16%9.85%14.20%22.19%31.08%
Haugar1.57%2.25%3.51%4.37%5.75%7.26%8.67%10.17%12.60%14.92%15.17%13.76%
Lyn Oslo0.33%0.75%1.30%1.66%2.44%3.60%5.05%7.11%10.36%14.62%21.02%31.76%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.85%
Slight Edge
37.12%35.61%27.27%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.33 Elo pts.
179 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.40 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.6
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
Valerenga, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.090.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.87 * Some Luck: 2.87 to 4.31 * Lucky: 4.31 to 5.74 * Wild Swing: 5.74 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.13 * Close: 2.13 to 3.19 * Off: 3.19 to 4.26 * Way Off: 4.26 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.18 points
Some Luck
03.599
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.50
Close
02.666
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
95.73%
Viking
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
11.16%
Lyn Oslo
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.03
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Clear Edge
50%77%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.78
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.08
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.80
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.067
Well Within Noise
00.1570.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Rosenborg 93.90% 3.20% 2.90%
Valerenga 93.15% 3.76% 3.09%
Start 92.13% 3.99% 3.88%
Moss 90.14% 5.08% 4.78%
Lillestrom 86.59% 5.97% 7.44%
Bryne 82.12% 8.21% 9.67%
Viking 81.50% 8.38% 10.12%
Fredrikstad 80.34% 8.76% 10.90%
Hamarkameratene 78.85% 8.91% 12.24%
Haugar 56.15% 14.92% 28.93%
Lyn Oslo 32.60% 14.62% 52.78%
Brann 32.53% 14.20% 53.27%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1981-04-26 Lillestrom D 2-2 1259 1280 35.9% 37.8% 26.3% -0.3 1
1981-04-26 @ Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1280 1259 26.3% 37.8% 35.9% +0.3 1
1981-04-26 Bryne D 1-1 1264 1288 35.5% 37.8% 26.7% -0.4 1
1981-04-26 @ Haugar D 1-1 1288 1264 26.7% 37.8% 35.5% +0.4 1
1981-04-26 Start L 0-1 1282 1301 36.2% 37.7% 26.1% -8.5 0
1981-04-26 @ Moss W 1-0 1301 1282 26.1% 37.7% 36.2% +8.5 2
1981-04-26 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1257 1218 43.5% 37.1% 19.5% +15.4 2
1981-04-26 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1218 1257 19.5% 37.1% 43.5% -15.4 0
1981-04-26 Brann W 2-0 1285 1244 43.6% 37.0% 19.3% +10.6 2
1981-04-26 @ Viking L 0-2 1244 1285 19.3% 37.0% 43.6% -10.5 0
1981-05-03 Moss L 0-2 1234 1273 33.4% 37.8% 28.8% -15.1 0
1981-05-03 @ Brann W 2-0 1273 1234 28.8% 37.8% 33.4% +15.1 2
1981-05-03 Valerenga L 0-2 1288 1272 40.8% 37.4% 21.8% -17.4 1
1981-05-03 @ Bryne W 2-0 1272 1288 21.8% 37.4% 40.8% +17.4 4
1981-05-03 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1228 1259 34.6% 37.8% 27.6% -8.2 0
1981-05-03 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1259 1228 27.6% 37.8% 34.6% +8.2 3
1981-05-03 Haugar D 2-2 1280 1264 40.8% 37.4% 21.8% -0.6 2
1981-05-03 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1264 1280 21.8% 37.4% 40.8% +0.6 2
1981-05-03 Viking W 2-0 1202 1295 26.2% 37.4% 36.4% +16.0 2
1981-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1295 1202 36.4% 37.4% 26.2% -16.0 2
1981-05-03 Rosenborg L 0-1 1309 1256 45.2% 36.8% 18.1% -10.0 2
1981-05-03 @ Start W 1-0 1256 1309 18.1% 36.8% 45.2% +10.0 2
1981-05-10 Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1264 1267 38.4% 37.6% 24.0% -16.7 2
1981-05-10 @ Haugar W 2-0 1267 1264 24.0% 37.6% 38.4% +16.7 5
1981-05-10 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1288 1218 47.0% 36.4% 16.6% +9.4 4
1981-05-10 @ Moss L 0-2 1218 1288 16.6% 36.4% 47.0% -9.4 2
1981-05-10 Brann W 5-0 1266 1219 44.4% 36.9% 18.7% +24.1 4
1981-05-10 @ Rosenborg L 0-5 1219 1266 18.7% 36.9% 44.4% -24.1 0
1981-05-10 Fredrikstad W 3-1 1299 1220 48.0% 36.1% 15.8% +7.9 4
1981-05-10 @ Start L 1-3 1220 1299 15.8% 36.1% 48.0% -7.9 0
1981-05-10 Lillestrom D 1-1 1289 1280 39.9% 37.5% 22.6% -0.7 5
1981-05-10 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1280 1289 22.6% 37.5% 39.9% +0.7 3
1981-05-10 Bryne W 2-1 1279 1271 39.7% 37.5% 22.8% +5.9 4
1981-05-10 @ Viking L 1-2 1271 1279 22.8% 37.5% 39.7% -5.9 1
1981-05-13 Start D 2-2 1195 1307 23.8% 37.1% 39.1% +0.5 1
1981-05-13 @ Brann D 2-2 1307 1195 39.1% 37.1% 23.8% -0.5 5
1981-05-13 Moss D 0-0 1265 1298 34.4% 37.8% 27.9% -0.3 2
1981-05-13 @ Bryne D 0-0 1298 1265 27.9% 37.8% 34.4% +0.3 5
1981-05-13 Haugar D 1-1 1212 1248 33.9% 37.8% 28.3% -0.2 1
1981-05-13 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1248 1212 28.3% 37.8% 33.9% +0.2 3
1981-05-13 Valerenga L 1-2 1283 1289 38.0% 37.6% 24.3% -8.3 5
1981-05-13 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1289 1283 24.3% 37.6% 38.0% +8.3 7
1981-05-13 Viking W 6-0 1280 1285 38.1% 37.6% 24.3% +34.3 5
1981-05-13 @ Lillestrom L 0-6 1285 1280 24.3% 37.6% 38.1% -34.3 4
1981-05-13 Rosenborg D 1-1 1209 1290 27.7% 37.5% 34.7% +0.3 3
1981-05-13 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1290 1209 34.7% 37.5% 27.7% -0.3 5
1981-05-16 Fredrikstad W 4-2 1289 1212 47.8% 36.2% 16.0% +7.1 7
1981-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 2-4 1212 1289 16.0% 36.2% 47.8% -7.1 1
1981-05-25 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1195 1205 37.5% 37.7% 24.9% -0.5 2
1981-05-25 @ Brann D 1-1 1205 1195 24.9% 37.7% 37.5% +0.5 2
1981-05-25 Lillestrom W 2-0 1298 1315 36.5% 37.7% 25.7% +12.8 7
1981-05-25 @ Moss L 0-2 1315 1298 25.7% 37.7% 36.5% -12.8 5
1981-05-25 Bryne W 3-1 1297 1265 42.6% 37.2% 20.2% +9.4 9
1981-05-25 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1265 1297 20.2% 37.2% 42.6% -9.4 2
1981-05-25 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1307 1209 49.9% 35.6% 14.5% -1.8 6
1981-05-25 @ Start D 0-0 1209 1307 14.5% 35.6% 49.9% +1.8 4
1981-05-25 Haugar D 2-2 1297 1248 44.6% 36.9% 18.5% -0.9 8
1981-05-25 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1248 1297 18.5% 36.9% 44.6% +0.9 4
1981-05-25 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1251 1275 35.5% 37.8% 26.8% +13.2 6
1981-05-25 @ Viking L 0-2 1275 1251 26.8% 37.8% 35.5% -13.2 5
1981-06-08 Start W 2-0 1255 1305 32.0% 37.8% 30.2% +14.2 4
1981-06-08 @ Bryne L 0-2 1305 1255 30.2% 37.8% 32.0% -14.2 6
1981-06-08 Valerenga W 2-1 1205 1296 26.5% 37.4% 36.1% +8.0 4
1981-06-08 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1296 1205 36.1% 37.4% 26.5% -8.0 8
1981-06-08 Moss L 0-1 1262 1311 32.1% 37.8% 30.1% -7.8 5
1981-06-08 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1311 1262 30.1% 37.8% 32.1% +7.8 9
1981-06-08 Viking L 1-3 1249 1264 36.7% 37.7% 25.6% -14.0 4
1981-06-08 @ Haugar W 3-1 1264 1249 25.6% 37.7% 36.7% +14.0 8
1981-06-08 Rosenborg D 1-1 1302 1306 38.1% 37.6% 24.2% -0.6 6
1981-06-08 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1306 1302 24.2% 37.6% 38.1% +0.6 10
1981-06-08 Brann W 3-2 1211 1194 40.8% 37.4% 21.8% +5.5 6
1981-06-08 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1194 1211 21.8% 37.4% 40.8% -5.5 2
1981-06-10 Bryne D 2-2 1189 1270 27.8% 37.5% 34.7% +0.2 3
1981-06-10 @ Brann D 2-2 1270 1189 34.7% 37.5% 27.8% -0.2 5
1981-06-10 Fredrikstad L 0-5 1216 1213 39.1% 37.6% 23.3% -39.5 6
1981-06-10 @ Lyn Oslo W 5-0 1213 1216 23.3% 37.6% 39.1% +39.5 6
1981-06-10 Haugar D 1-1 1319 1235 48.4% 36.0% 15.5% -1.5 10
1981-06-10 @ Moss D 1-1 1235 1319 15.5% 36.0% 48.4% +1.5 5
1981-06-10 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1307 1254 45.0% 36.8% 18.2% +10.1 12
1981-06-10 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1254 1307 18.2% 36.8% 45.0% -10.1 5
1981-06-10 Lillestrom W 2-0 1291 1301 37.4% 37.7% 25.0% +12.6 8
1981-06-10 @ Start L 0-2 1301 1291 25.0% 37.7% 37.4% -12.6 6
1981-06-10 Valerenga D 1-1 1278 1288 37.4% 37.7% 24.9% -0.5 9
1981-06-10 @ Viking D 1-1 1288 1278 24.9% 37.7% 37.4% +0.5 9
1981-06-21 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1269 1177 49.4% 35.8% 14.9% -1.8 6
1981-06-21 @ Bryne D 0-0 1177 1269 14.9% 35.8% 49.4% +1.8 7
1981-06-21 Viking W 3-0 1253 1277 35.4% 37.8% 26.8% +19.1 8
1981-06-21 @ Fredrikstad L 0-3 1277 1253 26.8% 37.8% 35.4% -19.1 9
1981-06-21 Start L 0-1 1244 1303 30.7% 37.7% 31.6% -7.6 5
1981-06-21 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1303 1244 31.6% 37.7% 30.7% +7.6 10
1981-06-21 Rosenborg D 1-1 1236 1317 27.8% 37.5% 34.6% +0.3 6
1981-06-21 @ Haugar D 1-1 1317 1236 34.6% 37.5% 27.8% -0.3 13
1981-06-21 Brann D 0-0 1289 1189 50.0% 35.6% 14.4% -1.9 7
1981-06-21 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1189 1289 14.4% 35.6% 50.0% +1.8 4
1981-06-21 Moss D 2-2 1289 1317 34.9% 37.8% 27.3% -0.2 10
1981-06-21 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1317 1289 27.3% 37.8% 34.9% +0.2 11
1981-06-29 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1191 1237 32.6% 37.8% 29.6% +14.0 6
1981-06-29 @ Brann L 0-2 1237 1191 29.6% 37.8% 32.6% -14.0 5
1981-06-29 Fredrikstad W 2-0 1268 1272 38.2% 37.6% 24.2% +12.3 8
1981-06-29 @ Bryne L 0-2 1272 1268 24.2% 37.6% 38.2% -12.3 8
1981-06-29 Lillestrom L 1-2 1179 1287 24.4% 37.2% 38.5% -6.2 7
1981-06-29 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1287 1179 38.5% 37.2% 24.4% +6.1 9
1981-06-29 Viking D 1-1 1317 1258 45.8% 36.7% 17.6% -1.3 12
1981-06-29 @ Moss D 1-1 1258 1317 17.6% 36.7% 45.8% +1.3 10
1981-06-29 Valerenga D 2-2 1316 1288 42.2% 37.3% 20.6% -0.7 14
1981-06-29 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1288 1316 20.6% 37.3% 42.2% +0.7 11
1981-06-29 Haugar L 1-2 1311 1237 47.4% 36.3% 16.3% -9.8 10
1981-06-29 @ Start W 2-1 1237 1311 16.3% 36.3% 47.4% +9.8 8
1981-07-06 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1223 1173 44.7% 36.9% 18.4% +10.2 7
1981-07-06 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1173 1223 18.4% 36.9% 44.7% -10.2 7
1981-07-06 Brann D 0-0 1246 1205 43.7% 37.0% 19.2% -1.2 9
1981-07-06 @ Haugar D 0-0 1205 1246 19.2% 37.0% 43.7% +1.2 7
1981-07-06 Bryne L 0-1 1293 1280 40.3% 37.5% 22.2% -9.2 9
1981-07-06 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1280 1293 22.2% 37.5% 40.3% +9.2 10
1981-07-06 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1316 1259 45.5% 36.7% 17.8% +5.0 14
1981-07-06 @ Moss L 1-2 1259 1316 17.8% 36.7% 45.5% -5.0 8
1981-07-06 Start W 5-2 1289 1301 37.1% 37.7% 25.2% +13.4 13
1981-07-06 @ Valerenga L 2-5 1301 1289 25.2% 37.7% 37.1% -13.4 10
1981-07-06 Rosenborg W 2-0 1260 1316 31.1% 37.7% 31.2% +14.5 12
1981-07-06 @ Viking L 0-2 1316 1260 31.2% 37.7% 31.1% -14.5 14
1981-07-13 Valerenga L 0-1 1206 1302 25.8% 37.4% 36.8% -6.8 7
1981-07-13 @ Brann W 1-0 1302 1206 36.8% 37.4% 25.8% +6.8 15
1981-07-13 Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1289 1233 45.5% 36.7% 17.8% -19.0 10
1981-07-13 @ Bryne W 2-0 1233 1289 17.8% 36.7% 45.5% +19.0 9
1981-07-13 Lillestrom D 2-2 1254 1284 34.8% 37.8% 27.4% -0.2 9
1981-07-13 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1284 1254 27.4% 37.8% 34.8% +0.2 10
1981-07-13 Haugar W 1-0 1162 1245 27.5% 37.5% 35.0% +8.3 9
1981-07-13 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1245 1162 35.0% 37.5% 27.5% -8.3 9
1981-07-13 Moss W 3-1 1301 1321 36.1% 37.7% 26.2% +11.2 16
1981-07-13 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1321 1301 26.2% 37.7% 36.1% -11.2 14
1981-07-13 Viking W 4-0 1288 1274 40.4% 37.5% 22.1% +22.0 12
1981-07-13 @ Start L 0-4 1274 1288 22.1% 37.5% 40.4% -22.0 12
1981-07-29 Viking L 1-2 1200 1252 31.6% 37.8% 30.6% -7.3 7
1981-07-29 @ Brann W 2-1 1252 1200 30.6% 37.8% 31.6% +7.3 14
1981-07-29 Haugar D 1-1 1270 1237 42.8% 37.2% 20.0% -1.0 11
1981-07-29 @ Bryne D 1-1 1237 1270 20.0% 37.2% 42.8% +1.0 10
1981-07-29 Rosenborg D 0-0 1254 1312 30.8% 37.7% 31.5% +0.0 10
1981-07-29 @ Fredrikstad D 0-0 1312 1254 31.5% 37.7% 30.8% -0.0 17
1981-07-29 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1284 1252 42.7% 37.2% 20.1% +5.8 12
1981-07-29 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1252 1284 20.1% 37.2% 42.7% -5.8 9
1981-07-29 Valerenga L 2-4 1171 1309 21.0% 36.5% 42.4% -8.6 9
1981-07-29 @ Lyn Oslo W 4-2 1309 1171 42.4% 36.5% 21.0% +8.6 17
1981-07-29 Moss L 1-3 1310 1310 38.7% 37.6% 23.7% -14.5 12
1981-07-29 @ Start W 3-1 1310 1310 23.7% 37.6% 38.7% +14.5 16
1981-08-03 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1246 1254 37.6% 37.7% 24.7% +6.2 11
1981-08-03 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1254 1246 24.7% 37.7% 37.6% -6.2 10
1981-08-03 Lillestrom L 2-3 1238 1290 31.7% 37.8% 30.5% -6.9 10
1981-08-03 @ Haugar W 3-2 1290 1238 30.5% 37.8% 31.7% +7.0 14
1981-08-03 Brann W 3-1 1324 1192 53.3% 34.5% 12.3% +6.3 18
1981-08-03 @ Moss L 1-3 1192 1324 12.3% 34.5% 53.3% -6.3 7
1981-08-03 Start W 4-2 1312 1295 40.9% 37.4% 21.7% +8.9 19
1981-08-03 @ Rosenborg L 2-4 1295 1312 21.7% 37.4% 40.9% -8.9 12
1981-08-03 Bryne D 2-2 1318 1269 44.6% 36.9% 18.5% -0.9 18
1981-08-03 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1269 1318 18.5% 36.9% 44.6% +0.9 12
1981-08-03 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1259 1162 49.8% 35.6% 14.5% +12.3 16
1981-08-03 @ Viking L 0-3 1162 1259 14.5% 35.6% 49.8% -12.3 9
1981-08-10 Rosenborg L 0-3 1186 1321 21.4% 36.6% 42.0% -16.3 7
1981-08-10 @ Brann W 3-0 1321 1186 42.0% 36.6% 21.4% +16.3 21
1981-08-10 Viking D 2-2 1270 1272 38.5% 37.6% 23.9% -0.5 13
1981-08-10 @ Bryne D 2-2 1272 1270 23.9% 37.6% 38.5% +0.5 17
1981-08-10 Start D 2-2 1248 1286 33.6% 37.8% 28.6% -0.2 11
1981-08-10 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1286 1248 28.6% 37.8% 33.6% +0.2 13
1981-08-10 Haugar D 1-1 1252 1231 41.3% 37.4% 21.3% -0.9 12
1981-08-10 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1231 1252 21.3% 37.4% 41.3% +0.9 11
1981-08-10 Valerenga L 0-2 1297 1317 36.0% 37.7% 26.2% -15.9 14
1981-08-10 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1317 1297 26.2% 37.7% 36.0% +15.9 20
1981-08-10 Moss W 5-0 1150 1331 17.2% 35.4% 47.5% +45.5 11
1981-08-10 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-5 1331 1150 47.5% 35.4% 17.2% -45.5 18
1981-08-17 Fredrikstad L 0-6 1232 1248 36.6% 37.7% 25.7% -44.8 11
1981-08-17 @ Haugar W 6-0 1248 1232 25.7% 37.7% 36.6% +44.8 13
1981-08-17 Bryne L 0-1 1285 1270 40.7% 37.4% 21.9% -9.2 18
1981-08-17 @ Moss W 1-0 1270 1285 21.9% 37.4% 40.7% +9.2 15
1981-08-17 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1338 1195 54.2% 34.1% 11.7% +3.7 23
1981-08-17 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1195 1338 11.7% 34.1% 54.2% -3.7 11
1981-08-17 Brann W 4-0 1286 1170 51.8% 35.0% 13.2% +14.8 15
1981-08-17 @ Start L 0-4 1170 1286 13.2% 35.0% 51.8% -14.8 7
1981-08-17 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1333 1251 48.2% 36.1% 15.7% -10.6 20
1981-08-17 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1251 1333 15.7% 36.1% 48.2% +10.6 14
1981-08-17 Lillestrom D 0-0 1272 1281 37.6% 37.7% 24.8% -0.6 18
1981-08-17 @ Viking D 0-0 1281 1272 24.8% 37.7% 37.6% +0.6 15
1981-08-23 Rosenborg D 1-1 1279 1341 30.2% 37.7% 32.1% +0.1 16
1981-08-23 @ Bryne D 1-1 1341 1279 32.1% 37.7% 30.2% -0.1 24
1981-08-23 Brann W 6-0 1293 1155 53.8% 34.3% 11.9% +19.8 15
1981-08-23 @ Fredrikstad L 0-6 1155 1293 11.9% 34.3% 53.8% -19.8 7
1981-08-23 Viking D 0-0 1262 1271 37.5% 37.7% 24.9% -0.6 15
1981-08-23 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1271 1262 24.9% 37.7% 37.5% +0.6 19
1981-08-23 Valerenga D 1-1 1187 1322 21.4% 36.6% 42.0% +0.9 12
1981-08-23 @ Haugar D 1-1 1322 1187 42.0% 36.6% 21.4% -0.9 21
1981-08-23 Moss D 0-0 1281 1276 39.4% 37.6% 23.1% -0.8 16
1981-08-23 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1276 1281 23.1% 37.6% 39.4% +0.8 19
1981-08-23 Start L 2-3 1191 1301 24.2% 37.1% 38.7% -5.8 11
1981-08-23 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1301 1191 38.7% 37.1% 24.2% +5.8 17
1981-09-02 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1135 1186 31.9% 37.8% 30.4% +7.5 9
1981-09-02 @ Brann L 0-1 1186 1135 30.4% 37.8% 31.9% -7.5 11
1981-09-02 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1277 1261 40.6% 37.4% 21.9% +5.8 21
1981-09-02 @ Moss L 1-2 1261 1277 21.9% 37.4% 40.6% -5.8 15
1981-09-02 Lillestrom D 1-1 1341 1281 46.0% 36.6% 17.4% -1.3 25
1981-09-02 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1281 1341 17.4% 36.6% 46.0% +1.3 17
1981-09-02 Bryne L 3-4 1307 1279 42.2% 37.3% 20.5% -8.3 17
1981-09-02 @ Start W 4-3 1279 1307 20.5% 37.3% 42.2% +8.3 18
1981-09-02 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1321 1312 39.8% 37.5% 22.6% -0.7 22
1981-09-02 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1312 1321 22.6% 37.5% 39.8% +0.7 16
1981-09-02 Haugar W 2-0 1272 1188 48.5% 36.0% 15.5% +8.9 21
1981-09-02 @ Viking L 0-2 1188 1272 15.5% 36.0% 48.5% -8.9 12
1981-09-13 Brann L 1-2 1287 1143 54.4% 34.0% 11.6% -11.0 18
1981-09-13 @ Bryne W 2-1 1143 1287 11.6% 34.0% 54.4% +11.0 11
1981-09-13 Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1313 1178 53.5% 34.4% 12.1% +3.4 18
1981-09-13 @ Fredrikstad L 2-3 1178 1313 12.1% 34.4% 53.5% -3.4 11
1981-09-13 Rosenborg W 3-0 1255 1340 27.3% 37.5% 35.2% +22.7 17
1981-09-13 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1340 1255 35.2% 37.5% 27.3% -22.7 25
1981-09-13 Moss D 0-0 1179 1283 24.9% 37.2% 37.8% +0.6 13
1981-09-13 @ Haugar D 0-0 1283 1179 37.8% 37.2% 24.9% -0.6 22
1981-09-13 Start D 0-0 1282 1299 36.5% 37.7% 25.8% -0.5 18
1981-09-13 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1299 1282 25.8% 37.7% 36.5% +0.5 18
1981-09-13 Viking D 2-2 1321 1281 43.6% 37.1% 19.4% -0.8 23
1981-09-13 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1281 1321 19.4% 37.1% 43.6% +0.8 22
1981-09-27 Lillestrom W 3-0 1154 1281 22.2% 36.8% 41.0% +25.3 13
1981-09-27 @ Brann L 0-3 1281 1154 41.0% 36.8% 22.2% -25.3 18
1981-09-27 Bryne L 1-2 1175 1276 25.2% 37.3% 37.6% -6.3 11
1981-09-27 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1276 1175 37.6% 37.3% 25.2% +6.3 20
1981-09-27 Valerenga D 2-2 1282 1320 33.6% 37.8% 28.6% -0.2 23
1981-09-27 @ Moss D 2-2 1320 1282 28.6% 37.8% 33.6% +0.1 24
1981-09-27 Haugar L 0-2 1317 1180 53.8% 34.3% 12.0% -21.8 25
1981-09-27 @ Rosenborg W 2-0 1180 1317 12.0% 34.3% 53.8% +21.8 15
1981-09-27 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1299 1278 41.3% 37.4% 21.3% -0.9 19
1981-09-27 @ Start D 1-1 1278 1299 21.3% 37.4% 41.3% +0.9 18
1981-09-27 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1282 1317 34.1% 37.8% 28.1% -15.3 22
1981-09-27 @ Viking W 2-0 1317 1282 28.1% 37.8% 34.1% +15.3 20
1981-10-04 Bryne D 1-1 1332 1282 44.7% 36.9% 18.4% -1.2 21
1981-10-04 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1282 1332 18.4% 36.9% 44.7% +1.2 21
1981-10-04 Brann D 1-1 1279 1179 50.1% 35.5% 14.3% -1.7 19
1981-10-04 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1179 1279 14.3% 35.5% 50.1% +1.7 14
1981-10-04 Start L 0-1 1201 1298 25.7% 37.3% 37.0% -6.8 15
1981-10-04 @ Haugar W 1-0 1298 1201 37.0% 37.3% 25.7% +6.8 21
1981-10-04 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1256 1168 48.8% 35.9% 15.2% +4.7 20
1981-10-04 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1168 1256 15.2% 35.9% 48.8% -4.7 11
1981-10-04 Rosenborg W 2-1 1320 1295 41.8% 37.3% 20.9% +5.6 26
1981-10-04 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1295 1320 20.9% 37.3% 41.8% -5.6 25
1981-10-04 Moss W 2-1 1266 1282 36.7% 37.7% 25.6% +6.4 24
1981-10-04 @ Viking L 1-2 1282 1266 25.6% 37.7% 36.7% -6.4 23
1981-10-11 Haugar W 6-0 1180 1195 36.8% 37.7% 25.4% +35.4 16
1981-10-11 @ Brann L 0-6 1195 1180 25.4% 37.7% 36.8% -35.4 15
1981-10-11 Lillestrom L 2-4 1284 1261 41.5% 37.3% 21.1% -13.7 21
1981-10-11 @ Bryne W 4-2 1261 1284 21.1% 37.3% 41.5% +13.7 22
1981-10-11 Moss W 4-1 1331 1275 45.4% 36.8% 17.9% +12.2 23
1981-10-11 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1275 1331 17.9% 36.8% 45.4% -12.2 23
1981-10-11 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1164 1277 23.7% 37.1% 39.2% +0.7 12
1981-10-11 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1277 1164 39.2% 37.1% 23.7% -0.7 20
1981-10-11 Viking L 0-1 1290 1273 40.8% 37.4% 21.7% -9.3 25
1981-10-11 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1273 1290 21.7% 37.4% 40.8% +9.2 26
1981-10-11 Valerenga L 0-4 1305 1326 36.0% 37.7% 26.2% -30.2 21
1981-10-11 @ Start W 4-0 1326 1305 26.2% 37.7% 36.0% +30.2 28
1981-10-18 Bryne W 5-2 1277 1270 39.6% 37.5% 22.9% +12.6 22
1981-10-18 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-5 1270 1277 22.9% 37.5% 39.6% -12.6 21
1981-10-18 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1159 1164 38.0% 37.6% 24.3% -0.4 16
1981-10-18 @ Haugar D 2-2 1164 1159 24.3% 37.6% 38.0% +0.4 13
1981-10-18 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1274 1343 29.4% 37.7% 33.0% -7.4 22
1981-10-18 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1343 1274 33.0% 37.7% 29.4% +7.4 25
1981-10-18 Rosenborg D 1-1 1263 1281 36.4% 37.7% 25.9% -0.4 24
1981-10-18 @ Moss D 1-1 1281 1263 25.9% 37.7% 36.4% +0.4 26
1981-10-18 Brann D 2-2 1356 1216 54.0% 34.2% 11.8% -1.5 29
1981-10-18 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1216 1356 11.8% 34.2% 54.0% +1.5 17
1981-10-18 Start W 5-3 1282 1275 39.6% 37.5% 22.9% +8.7 28
1981-10-18 @ Viking L 3-5 1275 1282 22.9% 37.5% 39.6% -8.7 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1981-09-13 11.58% Brann 1143 2 @ Bryne 1287 1
2 1981-09-27 11.97% Haugar 1180 2 @ Rosenborg 1317 0
3 1981-08-17 15.69% Hamarkameratene 1251 1 @ Valerenga 1333 0
4 1981-06-29 16.28% Haugar 1237 2 @ Start 1311 1
5 1981-08-10 17.17% @ Lyn Oslo 1150 5 Moss 1331 0
6 1981-07-13 17.81% Hamarkameratene 1233 2 @ Bryne 1289 0
7 1981-05-03 18.05% Rosenborg 1256 1 @ Start 1309 0
8 1981-09-02 20.54% Bryne 1279 4 @ Start 1307 3
9 1981-10-11 21.11% Lillestrom 1261 4 @ Bryne 1284 2
10 1981-10-11 21.74% Viking 1273 1 @ Rosenborg 1290 0
11 1981-05-03 21.80% Valerenga 1272 2 @ Bryne 1288 0
12 1981-08-17 21.89% Bryne 1270 1 @ Moss 1285 0
13 1981-09-27 22.17% @ Brann 1154 3 Lillestrom 1281 0
14 1981-07-06 22.20% Bryne 1280 1 @ Lillestrom 1293 0
15 1981-06-10 23.31% Fredrikstad 1213 5 @ Lyn Oslo 1216 0
16 1981-07-29 23.72% Moss 1310 3 @ Start 1310 1
17 1981-05-10 23.98% Hamarkameratene 1267 2 @ Haugar 1264 0
18 1981-05-13 24.32% Valerenga 1289 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1283 1
19 1981-06-08 25.55% Viking 1264 3 @ Haugar 1249 1
20 1981-08-17 25.66% Fredrikstad 1248 6 @ Haugar 1232 0
21 1981-04-26 26.09% Start 1301 1 @ Moss 1282 0
22 1981-05-03 26.21% @ Lyn Oslo 1202 2 Viking 1295 0
23 1981-08-10 26.23% Valerenga 1317 2 @ Lillestrom 1297 0
24 1981-10-11 26.24% Valerenga 1326 4 @ Start 1305 0
25 1981-06-08 26.45% @ Fredrikstad 1205 2 Valerenga 1296 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1981-08-10 45.49 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1150 17.17% Moss 0 1331 47.48% 35.35%
2 1981-08-17 44.76 Fredrikstad 6 1248 25.66% @ Haugar 0 1232 36.62% 37.72%
3 1981-06-10 39.51 Fredrikstad 5 1213 23.31% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1216 39.12% 37.58%
4 1981-10-11 35.36 @ Brann 6 1180 36.84% Haugar 0 1195 25.44% 37.71%
5 1981-05-13 34.29 @ Lillestrom 6 1280 38.08% Viking 0 1285 24.27% 37.65%
6 1981-10-11 30.21 Valerenga 4 1326 26.24% @ Start 0 1305 36.01% 37.74%
7 1981-09-27 25.28 @ Brann 3 1154 22.17% Lillestrom 0 1281 41.04% 36.79%
8 1981-05-10 24.07 @ Rosenborg 5 1266 44.41% Brann 0 1219 18.67% 36.92%
9 1981-09-13 22.72 @ Hamarkameratene 3 1255 27.27% Rosenborg 0 1340 35.22% 37.51%
10 1981-07-13 22.01 @ Start 4 1288 40.42% Viking 0 1274 22.11% 37.46%
11 1981-09-27 21.77 Haugar 2 1180 11.97% @ Rosenborg 0 1317 53.76% 34.27%
12 1981-08-23 19.84 @ Fredrikstad 6 1293 53.79% Brann 0 1155 11.95% 34.26%
13 1981-06-21 19.12 @ Fredrikstad 3 1253 35.44% Viking 0 1277 26.80% 37.76%
14 1981-07-13 18.98 Hamarkameratene 2 1233 17.81% @ Bryne 0 1289 45.47% 36.72%
15 1981-05-03 17.43 Valerenga 2 1272 21.80% @ Bryne 0 1288 40.77% 37.43%
16 1981-05-10 16.67 Hamarkameratene 2 1267 23.98% @ Haugar 0 1264 38.39% 37.63%
17 1981-08-10 16.27 Rosenborg 3 1321 42.01% @ Brann 0 1186 21.37% 36.62%
18 1981-05-03 15.99 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1202 26.21% Viking 0 1295 36.38% 37.40%
19 1981-08-10 15.94 Valerenga 2 1317 26.23% @ Lillestrom 0 1297 36.03% 37.74%
20 1981-04-26 15.41 @ Valerenga 3 1257 43.46% Lyn Oslo 0 1218 19.47% 37.08%
21 1981-09-27 15.34 Fredrikstad 2 1317 28.15% @ Viking 0 1282 34.07% 37.78%
22 1981-05-03 15.14 Moss 2 1273 28.78% @ Brann 0 1234 33.44% 37.78%
23 1981-08-17 14.82 @ Start 4 1286 51.79% Brann 0 1170 13.20% 35.01%
24 1981-07-29 14.51 Moss 3 1310 23.72% @ Start 1 1310 38.67% 37.61%
25 1981-07-06 14.47 @ Viking 2 1260 31.09% Rosenborg 0 1316 31.17% 37.73%