1980 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Start

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fredrikstad

8.35 points above expected

23 points · 14.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bodo Glimt

7.37 points below expected

12 points · 19.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Start	22	13	3	6	29	52	26	+26	27.67	+1.33
2	Bryne	22	12	5	5	29	44	22	+22	25.47	+3.53
3	Lillestrom	22	10	7	5	27	36	25	+11	25.26	+1.74
4	Viking	22	10	5	7	25	34	27	+7	25.98	-0.98
5	Rosenborg	22	9	5	8	23	42	36	+6	20.86	+2.14
6	Moss	22	8	7	7	23	33	27	+6	26.78	-3.78
7	Fredrikstad	22	9	5	8	23	35	39	-4	14.65	+8.35
8	Valerenga	22	6	8	8	20	26	26	0	22.08	-2.08
9	Lyn Oslo	22	8	3	11	19	26	43	-17	14.85	+4.15
10	Molde	22	6	6	10	18	30	39	-9	18.62	-0.62
11	Skeid	22	4	8	10	16	21	39	-18	22.40	-6.40
12	Bodo Glimt	22	5	2	15	12	13	43	-30	19.37	-7.37

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Start	1408	29	27.67	+1.33	68.1%	13	21	25	28	30	34	41
Bryne	1366	29	25.47	+3.53	85.8%	12	19	23	25	28	32	39
Viking	1355	25	25.98	-0.98	44.7%	13	20	23	26	29	32	39
Lillestrom	1342	27	25.26	+1.74	72.4%	12	19	23	25	28	31	38
Moss	1341	23	26.78	-3.78	19.5%	11	20	24	27	29	33	40
Valerenga	1262	20	22.08	-2.08	34.8%	8	16	19	22	25	28	36
Rosenborg	1259	23	20.86	+2.14	75.8%	6	15	18	21	23	27	35
Skeid	1214	16	22.40	-6.40	6.0%	9	16	20	22	25	29	36
Molde	1187	18	18.62	-0.62	49.0%	4	13	16	19	21	25	33
Fredrikstad	1176	23	14.65	+8.35	99.0%	3	9	12	15	17	21	28
Bodo Glimt	1156	12	19.37	-7.37	3.2%	5	13	17	19	22	26	34
Lyn Oslo	1144	19	14.85	+4.15	89.9%	3	9	12	15	17	21	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BG	BRY	FRE	LIL	LO	MOL	MOS	ROS	SKE	STA	VAL	VIK
Bodo Glimt	—	0-0-2 1.93	0-1-1 3.48	0-0-2 1.88	2-0-0 3.29	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 1.75	0-0-2 2.58	0-0-2 2.45	0-0-2 1.92	1-1-0 2.25	0-0-2 1.99
Bryne	2-0-0 3.58	—	2-0-0 4.07	1-0-1 2.71	2-0-0 4.12	1-1-0 3.56	1-0-1 2.75	1-1-0 3.28	1-0-1 3.07	0-2-0 2.39	0-1-1 3.28	1-0-1 2.67
Fredrikstad	1-1-0 2.03	0-0-2 1.46	—	2-0-0 1.41	0-0-2 2.79	1-1-0 2.07	1-1-0 1.35	0-0-2 1.94	1-0-1 1.83	1-0-1 1.24	0-2-0 1.83	2-0-0 1.45
Lillestrom	2-0-0 3.63	1-0-1 2.78	0-0-2 4.12	—	1-0-1 4.09	0-1-1 3.65	0-2-0 2.46	1-1-0 3.30	1-1-0 3.09	2-0-0 2.35	1-1-0 3.26	1-1-0 2.48
Lyn Oslo	0-0-2 2.20	0-0-2 1.42	2-0-0 2.70	1-0-1 1.44	—	2-0-0 2.21	1-0-1 1.32	0-0-2 2.02	0-2-0 1.72	0-0-2 1.30	2-0-0 1.78	0-1-1 1.46
Molde	1-0-1 2.71	0-1-1 1.95	0-1-1 3.43	1-1-0 1.85	0-0-2 3.28	—	0-1-1 1.70	1-0-1 2.33	1-1-0 2.24	1-0-1 1.61	1-1-0 2.19	0-0-2 1.76
Moss	1-0-1 3.76	1-0-1 2.74	0-1-1 4.19	0-2-0 3.04	1-0-1 4.22	1-1-0 3.81	—	2-0-0 3.50	1-1-0 3.34	0-0-2 2.77	1-1-0 3.30	0-1-1 2.87
Rosenborg	2-0-0 2.91	0-1-1 2.22	2-0-0 3.56	0-1-1 2.20	2-0-0 3.49	1-0-1 3.17	0-0-2 2.00	—	1-1-0 2.44	0-1-1 1.82	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.22
Skeid	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 3.67	0-1-1 2.40	0-2-0 3.80	0-1-1 3.26	0-1-1 2.16	0-1-1 3.05	—	0-0-2 2.06	0-1-1 2.67	0-1-1 2.22
Start	2-0-0 3.58	0-2-0 3.10	1-0-1 4.32	0-0-2 3.14	2-0-0 4.24	1-0-1 3.91	2-0-0 2.72	1-1-0 3.69	2-0-0 3.44	—	1-0-1 3.71	1-0-1 3.00
Valerenga	0-1-1 3.24	1-1-0 2.22	0-2-0 3.68	0-1-1 2.24	0-0-2 3.73	0-1-1 3.30	0-1-1 2.20	1-0-1 2.94	1-1-0 2.82	1-0-1 1.80	—	2-0-0 2.19
Viking	2-0-0 3.51	1-0-1 2.82	0-0-2 4.08	0-1-1 3.01	1-1-0 4.08	2-0-0 3.75	1-1-0 2.62	1-1-0 3.28	1-1-0 3.29	1-0-1 2.49	0-0-2 3.30	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.85	+4.5
Allowed	0.63	-5.3
Differential	0.93	+3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.85%	6.06%	1.89%	2.65%	1.14%	26.14%
1	9.85%	12.88%	5.30%	4.55%	1.52%	0.76%	34.85%
2	6.06%	5.30%	5.30%	1.14%	—	1.14%	18.94%
3	1.89%	4.55%	1.14%	1.52%	1.52%	—	10.61%
4	2.65%	1.52%	—	1.52%	—	0.38%	6.06%
5+	1.14%	0.76%	1.14%	—	0.38%	—	3.41%
Total	26.14%	34.85%	18.94%	10.61%	6.06%	3.41%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.48	1.48	+0.00
SD	1.41	1.41	2.05
CV	0.95	0.95	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	—	9.09%	59.09%
1	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
2	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	31.82%	18.18%	22.73%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.59	1.95	-1.36
SD	0.96	1.81	2.11
CV	1.62	0.93	—
Max	4	7	+1
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	40.91%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.00	+1.00
SD	1.66	1.02	2.02
CV	0.83	1.02	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	27.27%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.77	-0.18
SD	1.30	1.51	1.82
CV	0.82	0.85	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
1	18.18%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	59.09%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	40.91%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.14	+0.50
SD	1.43	1.13	1.65
CV	0.88	0.99	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
1	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	27.27%	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.95	-0.77
SD	1.10	1.96	2.07
CV	0.93	1.00	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	18.18%	13.64%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	36.36%	31.82%	—	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.77	-0.41
SD	1.29	1.38	1.87
CV	0.95	0.78	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	22.73%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	45.45%
2	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	40.91%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.23	+0.27
SD	1.06	1.11	1.61
CV	0.71	0.90	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	13.64%	—	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	31.82%	18.18%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.64	+0.27
SD	1.69	1.40	2.07
CV	0.88	0.85	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	45.45%
2	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	22.73%	27.27%	9.09%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.95	1.77	-0.82
SD	0.84	1.41	1.74
CV	0.88	0.80	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	31.82%	40.91%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	1.18	+1.18
SD	1.79	1.22	2.28
CV	0.76	1.03	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
2	—	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	45.45%	22.73%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.18	+0.00
SD	1.18	0.91	1.54
CV	1.00	0.77	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	40.91%
2	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.23	+0.32
SD	1.63	1.51	2.46
CV	1.05	1.23	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Fredrikstad	23	14.65	+8.35
2	Lyn Oslo	19	14.85	+4.15
3	Bryne	29	25.47	+3.53
4	Rosenborg	23	20.86	+2.14
5	Lillestrom	27	25.26	+1.74

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bodo Glimt	12	19.37	-7.37
2	Skeid	16	22.40	-6.40
3	Moss	23	26.78	-3.78
4	Valerenga	20	22.08	-2.08
5	Viking	25	25.98	-0.98

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fredrikstad	3	Oct 5 – Oct 19	1 in 263
2	Molde	3	Aug 18 – Aug 28	1 in 70
3	Viking	5	Aug 18 – Sep 14	1 in 38
4	Start	4	Sep 7 – Oct 5	1 in 18
5	Lyn Oslo	2	Jun 30 – Aug 10	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bodo Glimt	5	Jun 30 – Aug 24	1 in 104
2	Moss	3	Oct 6 – Oct 19	1 in 104
3	Start	2	Jun 8 – Jun 15	1 in 34
4	Valerenga	2	Aug 28 – Sep 7	1 in 22
5	Skeid	3	Jun 22 – Aug 10	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	4	May 12 – May 26	1 in 23
2	Fredrikstad	3	May 26 – Jun 8	1 in 19
3	Molde	4	Aug 13 – Aug 28	1 in 14
4	Bryne	6	Apr 27 – May 26	1 in 11
5	Rosenborg	5	Sep 7 – Oct 12	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skeid	7	Aug 28 – Oct 19	1 in 21
2	Viking	4	Sep 28 – Oct 19	1 in 17
3	Valerenga	5	Aug 28 – Oct 5	1 in 15
4	Bodo Glimt	6	Apr 27 – May 26	1 in 14
5	Molde	7	Apr 27 – Jun 2	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Start	33.28%	20.82%	14.79%	10.99%	7.91%	5.16%	3.62%	1.88%	1.07%	0.37%	0.07%	0.04%
Bryne	13.88%	15.78%	15.51%	14.73%	13.06%	10.08%	6.84%	4.83%	3.04%	1.47%	0.60%	0.18%
Lillestrom	11.62%	14.14%	15.79%	14.55%	13.42%	10.98%	7.97%	5.70%	3.23%	1.80%	0.66%	0.14%
Viking	14.67%	16.34%	16.23%	14.44%	12.85%	10.06%	6.81%	4.37%	2.53%	1.23%	0.36%	0.11%
Rosenborg	1.34%	2.65%	4.18%	6.94%	8.86%	12.35%	14.71%	15.43%	13.92%	10.88%	6.22%	2.52%
Moss	19.72%	19.26%	16.74%	13.85%	10.50%	7.86%	5.46%	3.44%	2.02%	0.77%	0.23%	0.15%
Fredrikstad	0.01%	0.06%	0.15%	0.33%	0.66%	1.08%	2.86%	4.96%	8.80%	15.63%	27.96%	37.50%
Valerenga	2.17%	4.85%	6.54%	8.63%	11.44%	13.71%	14.24%	14.50%	10.91%	7.55%	3.98%	1.48%
Lyn Oslo	—	0.05%	0.17%	0.32%	0.52%	1.35%	2.64%	4.46%	8.57%	15.45%	26.76%	39.71%
Molde	0.32%	0.56%	1.30%	2.57%	4.18%	6.54%	9.59%	13.83%	17.78%	19.49%	14.86%	8.98%
Skeid	2.55%	4.47%	6.66%	9.58%	11.33%	13.37%	14.38%	12.98%	11.17%	7.70%	4.26%	1.55%
Bodo Glimt	0.44%	1.02%	1.94%	3.07%	5.27%	7.46%	10.88%	13.62%	16.96%	17.66%	14.04%	7.64%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+16.67%

Clear Edge

46.21%24.24%29.55%

Elo Value

Home Edge

187 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

058.45500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.45 goals

Neutral

-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.9

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

33%

Start, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.00/gm

Photo Finish

00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.99 * Some Luck: 2.99 to 4.49 * Lucky: 4.49 to 5.98 * Wild Swing: 5.98 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.48 * Close: 1.48 to 2.22 * Off: 2.22 to 2.96 * Way Off: 2.96 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.32 points

Some Luck

03.749

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.33

Off

01.854

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.99%

Fredrikstad

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.21%

Bodo Glimt

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.11

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

72%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

82%

Strong Edge

50%86%100%

Close Games

Expected

60%

Very Frequent

0%54%100%

Blowouts

Expected

18%

Frequent

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.64

Hard to Predict

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.38

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.35

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.49

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Chalky

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

Shaky Favorites

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.66

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.45

Overconfident

0.2869641.001.71304

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.139

Near Noise Ceiling

00.1370.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Start	99.52%	0.48%
Moss	98.85%	1.15%
Viking	98.30%	1.70%
Bryne	97.75%	2.25%
Lillestrom	97.40%	2.60%
Valerenga	86.99%	13.01%
Skeid	86.49%	13.51%
Rosenborg	80.38%	19.62%
Bodo Glimt	60.66%	39.34%
Molde	56.67%	43.33%
Fredrikstad	18.91%	81.09%
Lyn Oslo	18.08%	81.92%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1980-04-27	Valerenga	D 2-2	1133	1267	31.6%	25.4%	43.0%	+0.3	1
1980-04-27	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1267	1133	43.0%	25.4%	31.6%	-0.3	1
1980-04-27	Lyn Oslo	W 6-4	1318	1134	66.8%	22.6%	10.5%	+2.9	2
1980-04-27	@ Lillestrom	L 4-6	1134	1318	10.5%	22.6%	66.8%	-2.9	0
1980-04-27	Bryne	D 2-2	1200	1301	35.9%	25.6%	38.4%	+0.1	1
1980-04-27	@ Molde	D 2-2	1301	1200	38.4%	25.6%	35.9%	-0.1	1
1980-04-27	Rosenborg	D 1-1	1298	1237	56.1%	24.9%	19.0%	-1.4	1
1980-04-27	@ Skeid	D 1-1	1237	1298	19.0%	24.9%	56.1%	+1.4	1
1980-04-27	Bodo Glimt	W 6-0	1344	1269	57.6%	24.7%	17.7%	+18.6	2
1980-04-27	@ Start	L 0-6	1269	1344	17.7%	24.7%	57.6%	-18.6	0
1980-04-27	Moss	D 1-1	1352	1358	48.7%	25.5%	25.8%	-0.8	1
1980-04-27	@ Viking	D 1-1	1358	1352	25.8%	25.5%	48.7%	+0.8	1
1980-05-05	Skeid	L 0-2	1250	1296	43.6%	25.7%	30.7%	-13.8	0
1980-05-05	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-0	1296	1250	30.7%	25.7%	43.6%	+13.8	3
1980-05-05	Lillestrom	W 3-0	1301	1321	47.0%	25.6%	27.4%	+14.0	3
1980-05-05	@ Bryne	L 0-3	1321	1301	27.4%	25.6%	47.0%	-14.0	2
1980-05-05	Start	L 0-2	1131	1363	20.6%	24.1%	55.2%	-7.5	0
1980-05-05	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	1363	1131	55.2%	24.1%	20.6%	+7.5	4
1980-05-05	Molde	W 2-0	1359	1200	64.9%	23.2%	11.9%	+4.6	3
1980-05-05	@ Moss	L 0-2	1200	1359	11.9%	23.2%	64.9%	-4.6	1
1980-05-05	Fredrikstad	W 6-2	1238	1133	60.4%	24.2%	15.4%	+7.9	3
1980-05-05	@ Rosenborg	L 2-6	1133	1238	15.4%	24.2%	60.4%	-7.9	1
1980-05-05	Viking	W 3-0	1266	1351	38.2%	25.7%	36.1%	+17.2	3
1980-05-05	@ Valerenga	L 0-3	1351	1266	36.1%	25.7%	38.2%	-17.2	1
1980-05-12	Bodo Glimt	D 1-1	1126	1236	34.6%	25.6%	39.8%	+0.2	2
1980-05-12	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1236	1126	39.8%	25.6%	34.6%	-0.2	1
1980-05-12	Molde	D 1-1	1307	1195	61.0%	24.1%	14.9%	-1.8	3
1980-05-12	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	1195	1307	14.9%	24.1%	61.0%	+1.8	2
1980-05-12	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	1310	1123	67.0%	22.6%	10.4%	-2.5	4
1980-05-12	@ Skeid	D 0-0	1123	1310	10.4%	22.6%	67.0%	+2.5	1
1980-05-12	Bryne	D 1-1	1370	1315	55.6%	25.0%	19.5%	-1.3	5
1980-05-12	@ Start	D 1-1	1315	1370	19.5%	25.0%	55.6%	+1.3	4
1980-05-12	Moss	D 1-1	1284	1363	39.0%	25.7%	35.3%	-0.1	4
1980-05-12	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	1363	1284	35.3%	25.7%	39.0%	+0.1	4
1980-05-12	Rosenborg	D 1-1	1334	1246	58.8%	24.5%	16.7%	-1.6	2
1980-05-12	@ Viking	D 1-1	1246	1334	16.7%	24.5%	58.8%	+1.6	4
1980-05-15	Viking	L 0-1	1236	1333	36.6%	25.6%	37.7%	-6.4	1
1980-05-15	@ Bodo Glimt	W 1-0	1333	1236	37.7%	25.6%	36.6%	+6.4	4
1980-05-15	Skeid	W 1-0	1316	1307	50.5%	25.4%	24.1%	+4.6	6
1980-05-15	@ Bryne	L 0-1	1307	1316	24.1%	25.4%	50.5%	-4.6	4
1980-05-15	Fredrikstad	W 2-1	1126	1126	49.4%	25.5%	25.1%	+4.5	3
1980-05-15	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1126	1126	25.1%	25.5%	49.4%	-4.5	2
1980-05-15	Start	L 1-2	1197	1369	26.9%	25.0%	48.1%	-4.7	2
1980-05-15	@ Molde	W 2-1	1369	1197	48.1%	25.0%	26.9%	+4.7	7
1980-05-15	Lillestrom	D 1-1	1363	1305	55.9%	24.9%	19.2%	-1.4	5
1980-05-15	@ Moss	D 1-1	1305	1363	19.2%	24.9%	55.9%	+1.4	4
1980-05-15	Valerenga	W 2-0	1248	1284	44.9%	25.7%	29.4%	+10.2	6
1980-05-15	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	1284	1248	29.4%	25.7%	44.9%	-10.2	4
1980-05-19	Bryne	L 0-4	1121	1321	23.8%	24.7%	51.5%	-16.1	2
1980-05-19	@ Fredrikstad	W 4-0	1321	1121	51.5%	24.7%	23.8%	+16.1	8
1980-05-19	Moss	L 0-2	1258	1362	35.5%	25.6%	38.9%	-11.7	6
1980-05-19	@ Rosenborg	W 2-0	1362	1258	38.9%	25.6%	35.5%	+11.7	7
1980-05-19	Molde	D 0-0	1303	1192	60.9%	24.1%	15.0%	-2.0	5
1980-05-19	@ Skeid	D 0-0	1192	1303	15.0%	24.1%	60.9%	+2.0	3
1980-05-19	Lillestrom	L 1-2	1374	1306	56.8%	24.8%	18.4%	-8.7	7
1980-05-19	@ Start	W 2-1	1306	1374	18.4%	24.8%	56.8%	+8.7	6
1980-05-19	Bodo Glimt	D 0-0	1273	1230	54.3%	25.1%	20.6%	-1.4	5
1980-05-19	@ Valerenga	D 0-0	1230	1273	20.6%	25.1%	54.3%	+1.4	2
1980-05-19	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	1339	1130	68.6%	22.0%	9.4%	-2.6	5
1980-05-19	@ Viking	D 0-0	1130	1339	9.4%	22.0%	68.6%	+2.6	4
1980-05-26	Rosenborg	L 1-3	1231	1246	47.6%	25.6%	26.8%	-12.8	2
1980-05-26	@ Bodo Glimt	W 3-1	1246	1231	26.8%	25.6%	47.6%	+12.8	8
1980-05-26	Viking	W 1-0	1337	1336	49.5%	25.5%	25.0%	+4.8	10
1980-05-26	@ Bryne	L 0-1	1336	1337	25.0%	25.5%	49.5%	-4.8	5
1980-05-26	Skeid	W 2-0	1315	1301	51.1%	25.4%	23.5%	+8.5	8
1980-05-26	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	1301	1315	23.5%	25.4%	51.1%	-8.5	5
1980-05-26	Valerenga	W 1-0	1133	1272	30.9%	25.4%	43.8%	+7.3	6
1980-05-26	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	1272	1133	43.8%	25.4%	30.9%	-7.3	5
1980-05-26	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1194	1105	59.0%	24.5%	16.6%	-1.6	4
1980-05-26	@ Molde	D 1-1	1105	1194	16.6%	24.5%	59.0%	+1.6	3
1980-05-26	Start	L 0-2	1374	1365	50.4%	25.4%	24.1%	-15.6	7
1980-05-26	@ Moss	W 2-0	1365	1374	24.1%	25.4%	50.4%	+15.6	9
1980-06-02	Moss	W 1-0	1219	1358	30.8%	25.4%	43.9%	+7.3	4
1980-06-02	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-1	1358	1219	43.9%	25.4%	30.8%	-7.3	7
1980-06-02	Lillestrom	W 1-0	1107	1324	22.1%	24.4%	53.5%	+8.6	5
1980-06-02	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1324	1107	53.5%	24.4%	22.1%	-8.6	8
1980-06-02	Lyn Oslo	W 4-0	1259	1140	61.6%	24.0%	14.4%	+10.5	10
1980-06-02	@ Rosenborg	L 0-4	1140	1259	14.4%	24.0%	61.6%	-10.5	6
1980-06-02	Skeid	W 3-1	1381	1292	58.9%	24.5%	16.7%	+5.5	11
1980-06-02	@ Start	L 1-3	1292	1381	16.7%	24.5%	58.9%	-5.5	5
1980-06-02	Bryne	W 1-0	1265	1342	39.3%	25.7%	35.0%	+6.2	7
1980-06-02	@ Valerenga	L 0-1	1342	1265	35.0%	25.7%	39.3%	-6.2	10
1980-06-02	Molde	W 4-0	1332	1193	63.3%	23.6%	13.1%	+9.6	7
1980-06-02	@ Viking	L 0-4	1193	1332	13.1%	23.6%	63.3%	-9.6	4
1980-06-08	Rosenborg	W 3-1	1336	1269	56.7%	24.8%	18.5%	+6.0	12
1980-06-08	@ Bryne	L 1-3	1269	1336	18.5%	24.8%	56.7%	-6.0	10
1980-06-08	Viking	W 4-0	1315	1341	46.1%	25.6%	28.2%	+18.7	10
1980-06-08	@ Lillestrom	L 0-4	1341	1315	28.2%	25.6%	46.1%	-18.7	7
1980-06-08	Bodo Glimt	L 1-2	1130	1226	36.6%	25.6%	37.7%	-6.0	6
1980-06-08	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	1226	1130	37.7%	25.6%	36.6%	+6.0	6
1980-06-08	Valerenga	W 3-1	1183	1271	37.9%	25.7%	36.5%	+10.4	6
1980-06-08	@ Molde	L 1-3	1271	1183	36.5%	25.7%	37.9%	-10.4	7
1980-06-08	Fredrikstad	L 3-4	1386	1115	72.6%	20.4%	7.0%	-10.0	11
1980-06-08	@ Start	W 4-3	1115	1386	7.0%	20.4%	72.6%	+10.0	7
1980-06-09	Moss	D 2-2	1287	1351	41.1%	25.7%	33.2%	-0.2	6
1980-06-09	@ Skeid	D 2-2	1351	1287	33.2%	25.7%	41.1%	+0.2	8
1980-06-15	Bryne	L 1-2	1232	1342	34.7%	25.6%	39.7%	-5.8	6
1980-06-15	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-1	1342	1232	39.7%	25.6%	34.7%	+5.8	14
1980-06-15	Skeid	L 0-2	1125	1287	28.1%	25.2%	46.7%	-9.8	7
1980-06-15	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1287	1125	46.7%	25.2%	28.1%	+9.8	8
1980-06-15	Lyn Oslo	W 3-1	1351	1124	69.8%	21.6%	8.6%	+2.9	10
1980-06-15	@ Moss	L 1-3	1124	1351	8.6%	21.6%	69.8%	-2.9	6
1980-06-15	Molde	L 2-5	1263	1194	57.1%	24.8%	18.2%	-18.5	10
1980-06-15	@ Rosenborg	W 5-2	1194	1263	18.2%	24.8%	57.1%	+18.5	8
1980-06-15	Lillestrom	D 2-2	1261	1334	39.9%	25.7%	34.4%	-0.1	8
1980-06-15	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	1334	1261	34.4%	25.7%	39.9%	+0.1	11
1980-06-15	Start	W 1-0	1323	1376	42.6%	25.7%	31.7%	+5.7	9
1980-06-15	@ Viking	L 0-1	1376	1323	31.7%	25.7%	42.6%	-5.7	11
1980-06-22	Lyn Oslo	W 3-1	1348	1121	69.8%	21.6%	8.6%	+2.9	16
1980-06-22	@ Bryne	L 1-3	1121	1348	8.6%	21.6%	69.8%	-2.9	6
1980-06-22	Moss	D 3-3	1116	1354	20.0%	24.0%	55.9%	+0.8	8
1980-06-22	@ Fredrikstad	D 3-3	1354	1116	55.9%	24.0%	20.0%	-0.8	11
1980-06-22	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1334	1245	58.9%	24.5%	16.6%	+3.4	13
1980-06-22	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	1245	1334	16.6%	24.5%	58.9%	-3.4	10
1980-06-22	Bodo Glimt	L 3-4	1212	1226	47.7%	25.6%	26.7%	-6.9	8
1980-06-22	@ Molde	W 4-3	1226	1212	26.7%	25.6%	47.7%	+6.9	8
1980-06-22	Viking	L 1-3	1296	1328	45.4%	25.7%	28.9%	-12.3	8
1980-06-22	@ Skeid	W 3-1	1328	1296	28.9%	25.7%	45.4%	+12.3	11
1980-06-22	Valerenga	W 3-1	1370	1260	60.8%	24.1%	15.0%	+5.0	13
1980-06-22	@ Start	L 1-3	1260	1370	15.0%	24.1%	60.8%	-5.0	8
1980-06-30	Lillestrom	L 0-1	1233	1337	35.5%	25.6%	38.9%	-6.2	8
1980-06-30	@ Bodo Glimt	W 1-0	1337	1233	38.9%	25.6%	35.5%	+6.2	15
1980-06-30	Molde	W 2-1	1118	1205	37.9%	25.7%	36.4%	+6.0	8
1980-06-30	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1205	1118	36.4%	25.7%	37.9%	-6.0	8
1980-06-30	Bryne	W 3-1	1353	1350	49.7%	25.5%	24.8%	+7.7	13
1980-06-30	@ Moss	L 1-3	1350	1353	24.8%	25.5%	49.7%	-7.7	16
1980-06-30	Start	D 0-0	1242	1375	31.6%	25.4%	43.0%	+0.4	11
1980-06-30	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	1375	1242	43.0%	25.4%	31.6%	-0.4	14
1980-06-30	Skeid	W 4-1	1255	1284	45.8%	25.6%	28.5%	+12.2	10
1980-06-30	@ Valerenga	L 1-4	1284	1255	28.5%	25.6%	45.8%	-12.2	8
1980-06-30	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1341	1116	69.6%	21.6%	8.7%	-11.1	11
1980-06-30	@ Viking	W 1-0	1116	1341	8.7%	21.6%	69.6%	+11.1	10
1980-08-10	Start	L 0-1	1227	1375	29.7%	25.3%	45.0%	-5.4	8
1980-08-10	@ Bodo Glimt	W 1-0	1375	1227	45.0%	25.3%	29.7%	+5.4	16
1980-08-10	Molde	W 2-1	1343	1199	63.7%	23.5%	12.8%	+2.5	18
1980-08-10	@ Bryne	L 1-2	1199	1343	12.8%	23.5%	63.7%	-2.5	8
1980-08-10	Lillestrom	W 2-1	1124	1343	21.8%	24.4%	53.8%	+8.2	10
1980-08-10	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1343	1124	53.8%	24.4%	21.8%	-8.2	15
1980-08-10	Viking	L 2-3	1361	1330	53.0%	25.2%	21.8%	-7.7	13
1980-08-10	@ Moss	W 3-2	1330	1361	21.8%	25.2%	53.0%	+7.7	13
1980-08-10	Skeid	W 4-1	1242	1272	45.7%	25.7%	28.7%	+12.2	13
1980-08-10	@ Rosenborg	L 1-4	1272	1242	28.7%	25.7%	45.7%	-12.2	8
1980-08-10	Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1268	1127	63.4%	23.6%	13.0%	-1.5	11
1980-08-10	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	1127	1268	13.0%	23.6%	63.4%	+1.5	11
1980-08-13	Moss	D 1-1	1197	1353	28.7%	25.2%	46.1%	+0.6	9
1980-08-13	@ Molde	D 1-1	1353	1197	46.1%	25.2%	28.7%	-0.6	14
1980-08-13	Valerenga	L 1-2	1337	1266	57.2%	24.8%	18.1%	-8.7	13
1980-08-13	@ Viking	W 2-1	1266	1337	18.1%	24.8%	57.2%	+8.7	13
1980-08-14	Rosenborg	L 2-3	1129	1254	32.6%	25.5%	41.9%	-5.2	11
1980-08-14	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-2	1254	1129	41.9%	25.5%	32.6%	+5.2	15
1980-08-14	Bryne	W 1-0	1335	1345	48.2%	25.6%	26.3%	+4.9	17
1980-08-14	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	1345	1335	26.3%	25.6%	48.2%	-4.9	18
1980-08-14	Bodo Glimt	W 1-0	1260	1221	53.8%	25.2%	21.1%	+4.1	10
1980-08-14	@ Skeid	L 0-1	1221	1260	21.1%	25.2%	53.8%	-4.1	8
1980-08-14	Lyn Oslo	W 5-0	1380	1132	71.2%	21.0%	7.8%	+7.0	18
1980-08-14	@ Start	L 0-5	1132	1380	7.8%	21.0%	71.2%	-7.0	10
1980-08-18	Fredrikstad	L 1-3	1217	1124	59.3%	24.4%	16.2%	-15.7	8
1980-08-18	@ Bodo Glimt	W 3-1	1124	1217	16.2%	24.4%	59.3%	+15.7	13
1980-08-18	Start	D 2-2	1340	1387	43.4%	25.7%	30.9%	-0.3	19
1980-08-18	@ Bryne	D 2-2	1387	1340	30.9%	25.7%	43.4%	+0.3	19
1980-08-18	Skeid	D 1-1	1125	1264	30.9%	25.4%	43.7%	+0.4	11
1980-08-18	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	1264	1125	43.7%	25.4%	30.9%	-0.4	11
1980-08-18	Lillestrom	W 3-1	1197	1340	30.4%	25.3%	44.2%	+12.0	11
1980-08-18	@ Molde	L 1-3	1340	1197	44.2%	25.3%	30.4%	-12.0	17
1980-08-18	Valerenga	W 1-0	1353	1275	57.8%	24.6%	17.5%	+3.5	16
1980-08-18	@ Moss	L 0-1	1275	1353	17.5%	24.6%	57.8%	-3.5	13
1980-08-18	Viking	L 0-1	1259	1329	40.5%	25.7%	33.8%	-6.9	15
1980-08-18	@ Rosenborg	W 1-0	1329	1259	33.8%	25.7%	40.5%	+6.9	15
1980-08-24	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1139	1126	51.0%	25.4%	23.6%	-15.7	13
1980-08-24	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1126	1139	23.6%	25.4%	51.0%	+15.7	13
1980-08-24	Moss	D 1-1	1328	1356	45.9%	25.6%	28.4%	-0.6	18
1980-08-24	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	1356	1328	28.4%	25.6%	45.9%	+0.6	17
1980-08-24	Bryne	W 3-2	1263	1340	39.4%	25.7%	34.9%	+5.5	13
1980-08-24	@ Skeid	L 2-3	1340	1263	34.9%	25.7%	39.4%	-5.5	19
1980-08-24	Molde	L 0-1	1388	1209	66.4%	22.8%	10.8%	-10.6	19
1980-08-24	@ Start	W 1-0	1209	1388	10.8%	22.8%	66.4%	+10.6	13
1980-08-24	Rosenborg	W 3-0	1271	1253	51.6%	25.4%	23.1%	+12.2	15
1980-08-24	@ Valerenga	L 0-3	1253	1271	23.1%	25.4%	51.6%	-12.2	15
1980-08-24	Bodo Glimt	W 3-0	1335	1202	62.9%	23.7%	13.4%	+7.5	17
1980-08-24	@ Viking	L 0-3	1202	1335	13.4%	23.7%	62.9%	-7.5	8
1980-08-28	Valerenga	W 1-0	1194	1284	37.6%	25.7%	36.8%	+6.4	10
1980-08-28	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-1	1284	1194	36.8%	25.7%	37.6%	-6.4	15
1980-08-28	Start	W 4-1	1327	1377	43.1%	25.7%	31.2%	+13.0	20
1980-08-28	@ Lillestrom	L 1-4	1377	1327	31.2%	25.7%	43.1%	-13.0	19
1980-08-28	Skeid	W 2-1	1220	1269	43.2%	25.7%	31.1%	+5.3	15
1980-08-28	@ Molde	L 1-2	1269	1220	31.1%	25.7%	43.2%	-5.3	13
1980-08-29	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1334	1124	68.7%	22.0%	9.3%	+1.9	21
1980-08-29	@ Bryne	L 0-1	1124	1334	9.3%	22.0%	68.7%	-1.9	13
1980-08-29	Viking	L 1-6	1141	1343	23.6%	24.6%	51.8%	-16.3	13
1980-08-29	@ Lyn Oslo	W 6-1	1343	1141	51.8%	24.6%	23.6%	+16.3	19
1980-08-31	Rosenborg	W 2-0	1357	1240	61.4%	24.0%	14.6%	+5.6	19
1980-08-31	@ Moss	L 0-2	1240	1357	14.6%	24.0%	61.4%	-5.6	15
1980-09-07	Molde	W 5-2	1122	1225	35.6%	25.6%	38.8%	+13.3	15
1980-09-07	@ Fredrikstad	L 2-5	1225	1122	38.8%	25.6%	35.6%	-13.3	15
1980-09-07	Bodo Glimt	W 2-0	1235	1200	53.3%	25.2%	21.4%	+7.9	17
1980-09-07	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	1200	1235	21.4%	25.2%	53.3%	-7.9	10
1980-09-07	Lillestrom	D 1-1	1264	1340	39.4%	25.7%	34.9%	-0.1	14
1980-09-07	@ Skeid	D 1-1	1340	1264	34.9%	25.7%	39.4%	+0.2	21
1980-09-07	Moss	W 2-1	1364	1362	49.6%	25.5%	24.9%	+4.5	21
1980-09-07	@ Start	L 1-2	1362	1364	24.9%	25.5%	49.6%	-4.5	19
1980-09-07	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1277	1125	64.4%	23.3%	12.3%	-19.5	15
1980-09-07	@ Valerenga	W 2-0	1125	1277	12.3%	23.3%	64.4%	+19.5	15
1980-09-07	Bryne	W 1-0	1359	1336	52.1%	25.3%	22.6%	+4.4	21
1980-09-07	@ Viking	L 0-1	1336	1359	22.6%	25.3%	52.1%	-4.4	21
1980-09-14	Valerenga	D 0-0	1332	1258	57.5%	24.7%	17.8%	-1.7	22
1980-09-14	@ Bryne	D 0-0	1258	1332	17.8%	24.7%	57.5%	+1.7	16
1980-09-14	Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1341	1135	68.4%	22.1%	9.5%	-10.3	21
1980-09-14	@ Lillestrom	W 2-1	1135	1341	9.5%	22.1%	68.4%	+10.3	17
1980-09-14	Viking	L 0-4	1212	1364	29.3%	25.3%	45.4%	-19.1	15
1980-09-14	@ Molde	W 4-0	1364	1212	45.4%	25.3%	29.3%	+19.1	23
1980-09-14	Bodo Glimt	W 1-0	1358	1192	65.4%	23.0%	11.5%	+2.4	21
1980-09-14	@ Moss	L 0-1	1192	1358	11.5%	23.0%	65.4%	-2.4	10
1980-09-14	Start	L 0-4	1263	1368	35.4%	25.6%	39.0%	-22.2	14
1980-09-14	@ Skeid	W 4-0	1368	1263	39.0%	25.6%	35.4%	+22.2	23
1980-09-15	Rosenborg	L 3-4	1144	1243	36.4%	25.6%	38.0%	-5.5	15
1980-09-15	@ Lyn Oslo	W 4-3	1243	1144	38.0%	25.6%	36.4%	+5.5	19
1980-09-28	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	1190	1139	55.1%	25.0%	19.8%	+3.9	12
1980-09-28	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-1	1139	1190	19.8%	25.0%	55.1%	-3.9	15
1980-09-28	Start	L 1-3	1145	1391	19.4%	23.9%	56.7%	-6.2	17
1980-09-28	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1391	1145	56.7%	23.9%	19.4%	+6.2	25
1980-09-28	Skeid	W 4-0	1360	1241	61.6%	24.0%	14.4%	+10.5	23
1980-09-28	@ Moss	L 0-4	1241	1360	14.4%	24.0%	61.6%	-10.5	14
1980-09-28	Bryne	D 3-3	1248	1330	38.6%	25.7%	35.7%	-0.1	20
1980-09-28	@ Rosenborg	D 3-3	1330	1248	35.7%	25.7%	38.6%	+0.1	23
1980-09-28	Molde	D 1-1	1259	1193	56.7%	24.8%	18.5%	-1.4	17
1980-09-28	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	1193	1259	18.5%	24.8%	56.7%	+1.4	16
1980-09-28	Lillestrom	D 1-1	1383	1330	55.3%	25.0%	19.7%	-1.3	24
1980-09-28	@ Viking	D 1-1	1330	1383	19.7%	25.0%	55.3%	+1.3	22
1980-10-05	Bodo Glimt	W 7-0	1330	1194	63.1%	23.6%	13.2%	+16.5	25
1980-10-05	@ Bryne	L 0-7	1194	1330	13.2%	23.6%	63.1%	-16.5	12
1980-10-05	Valerenga	W 1-0	1332	1258	57.5%	24.7%	17.8%	+3.6	24
1980-10-05	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	1258	1332	17.8%	24.7%	57.5%	-3.6	17
1980-10-05	Rosenborg	L 0-2	1194	1248	42.5%	25.7%	31.8%	-13.5	16
1980-10-05	@ Molde	W 2-0	1248	1194	31.8%	25.7%	42.5%	+13.5	22
1980-10-05	Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1231	1139	59.2%	24.4%	16.4%	-18.0	14
1980-10-05	@ Skeid	W 2-0	1139	1231	16.4%	24.4%	59.2%	+18.0	19
1980-10-05	Viking	W 6-1	1397	1381	51.2%	25.4%	23.4%	+16.4	27
1980-10-05	@ Start	L 1-6	1381	1397	23.4%	25.4%	51.2%	-16.4	24
1980-10-06	Moss	W 2-1	1135	1371	20.3%	24.1%	55.6%	+8.4	17
1980-10-06	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1371	1135	55.6%	24.1%	20.3%	-8.4	23
1980-10-12	Molde	L 0-2	1178	1181	49.0%	25.5%	25.5%	-15.2	12
1980-10-12	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-0	1181	1178	25.5%	25.5%	49.0%	+15.2	18
1980-10-12	Bryne	L 0-2	1143	1347	23.4%	24.6%	52.0%	-8.4	17
1980-10-12	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	1347	1143	52.0%	24.6%	23.4%	+8.4	27
1980-10-12	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1362	1157	68.3%	22.1%	9.6%	-10.9	23
1980-10-12	@ Moss	W 1-0	1157	1362	9.6%	22.1%	68.3%	+10.9	21
1980-10-12	Lillestrom	D 1-1	1262	1335	39.8%	25.7%	34.5%	-0.2	23
1980-10-12	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1335	1262	34.5%	25.7%	39.8%	+0.2	25
1980-10-12	Start	W 2-1	1254	1413	28.4%	25.2%	46.4%	+7.2	19
1980-10-12	@ Valerenga	L 1-2	1413	1254	46.4%	25.2%	28.4%	-7.2	27
1980-10-12	Skeid	D 2-2	1365	1213	64.4%	23.3%	12.3%	-1.5	25
1980-10-12	@ Viking	D 2-2	1213	1365	12.3%	23.3%	64.4%	+1.5	15
1980-10-19	Moss	W 4-1	1355	1351	49.9%	25.5%	24.7%	+10.8	29
1980-10-19	@ Bryne	L 1-4	1351	1355	24.7%	25.5%	49.9%	-10.8	23
1980-10-19	Viking	W 1-0	1168	1364	24.2%	24.7%	51.0%	+8.3	23
1980-10-19	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1364	1168	51.0%	24.7%	24.2%	-8.3	25
1980-10-19	Bodo Glimt	W 3-0	1335	1162	66.0%	22.9%	11.1%	+6.3	27
1980-10-19	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	1162	1335	11.1%	22.9%	66.0%	-6.3	12
1980-10-19	Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	1196	1135	56.2%	24.9%	18.9%	-9.1	18
1980-10-19	@ Molde	W 1-0	1135	1196	18.9%	24.9%	56.2%	+9.1	19
1980-10-19	Valerenga	D 1-1	1214	1262	43.4%	25.7%	30.9%	-0.4	16
1980-10-19	@ Skeid	D 1-1	1262	1214	30.9%	25.7%	43.4%	+0.4	20
1980-10-19	Rosenborg	W 4-3	1406	1261	63.8%	23.5%	12.7%	+2.3	29
1980-10-19	@ Start	L 3-4	1261	1406	12.7%	23.5%	63.8%	-2.3	23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1980-06-08	7.00%	Fredrikstad	1115	4	@ Start	1386	3
2	1980-06-30	8.72%	Fredrikstad	1116	1	@ Viking	1341	0
3	1980-09-14	9.53%	Fredrikstad	1135	2	@ Lillestrom	1341	1
4	1980-10-12	9.55%	Fredrikstad	1157	1	@ Moss	1362	0
5	1980-08-24	10.85%	Molde	1209	1	@ Start	1388	0
6	1980-09-07	12.28%	Lyn Oslo	1125	2	@ Valerenga	1277	0
7	1980-08-18	16.25%	Fredrikstad	1124	3	@ Bodo Glimt	1217	1
8	1980-10-05	16.40%	Fredrikstad	1139	2	@ Skeid	1231	0
9	1980-08-13	18.06%	Valerenga	1266	2	@ Viking	1337	1
10	1980-06-15	18.17%	Molde	1194	5	@ Rosenborg	1263	2
11	1980-05-19	18.40%	Lillestrom	1306	2	@ Start	1374	1
12	1980-10-19	18.95%	Lyn Oslo	1135	1	@ Molde	1196	0
13	1980-10-06	20.26%	@ Lyn Oslo	1135	2	Moss	1371	1
14	1980-08-10	21.76%	Viking	1330	3	@ Moss	1361	2
15	1980-08-10	21.80%	@ Lyn Oslo	1124	2	Lillestrom	1343	1
16	1980-06-02	22.05%	@ Fredrikstad	1107	1	Lillestrom	1324	0
17	1980-08-24	23.59%	Lyn Oslo	1126	2	@ Fredrikstad	1139	0
18	1980-05-26	24.13%	Start	1365	2	@ Moss	1374	0
19	1980-10-19	24.25%	@ Fredrikstad	1168	1	Viking	1364	0
20	1980-10-12	25.49%	Molde	1181	2	@ Bodo Glimt	1178	0
21	1980-06-22	26.74%	Bodo Glimt	1226	4	@ Molde	1212	3
22	1980-05-26	26.83%	Rosenborg	1246	3	@ Bodo Glimt	1231	1
23	1980-10-12	28.41%	@ Valerenga	1254	2	Start	1413	1
24	1980-06-22	28.93%	Viking	1328	3	@ Skeid	1296	1
25	1980-08-18	30.40%	@ Molde	1197	3	Lillestrom	1340	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1980-09-14	22.19	Start	4	1368	38.99%	@ Skeid	0	1263	35.41%	25.60%
2	1980-09-07	19.50	Lyn Oslo	2	1125	12.28%	@ Valerenga	0	1277	64.40%	23.32%
3	1980-09-14	19.14	Viking	4	1364	45.44%	@ Molde	0	1212	29.30%	25.26%
4	1980-06-08	18.69	@ Lillestrom	4	1315	46.13%	Viking	0	1341	28.23%	25.64%
5	1980-04-27	18.59	@ Start	6	1344	57.61%	Bodo Glimt	0	1269	17.71%	24.69%
6	1980-06-15	18.49	Molde	5	1194	18.17%	@ Rosenborg	2	1263	57.06%	24.77%
7	1980-10-05	18.02	Fredrikstad	2	1139	16.40%	@ Skeid	0	1231	59.16%	24.44%
8	1980-05-05	17.25	@ Valerenga	3	1266	38.23%	Viking	0	1351	36.09%	25.67%
9	1980-10-05	16.49	@ Bryne	7	1330	63.11%	Bodo Glimt	0	1194	13.25%	23.64%
10	1980-10-05	16.44	@ Start	6	1397	51.19%	Viking	1	1381	23.43%	25.38%
11	1980-08-29	16.35	Viking	6	1343	51.76%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1141	23.60%	24.64%
12	1980-05-19	16.13	Bryne	4	1321	51.54%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1121	23.79%	24.67%
13	1980-08-24	15.74	Lyn Oslo	2	1126	23.59%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1139	51.02%	25.39%
14	1980-08-18	15.66	Fredrikstad	3	1124	16.25%	@ Bodo Glimt	1	1217	59.34%	24.41%
15	1980-05-26	15.58	Start	2	1365	24.13%	@ Moss	0	1374	50.44%	25.43%
16	1980-10-12	15.19	Molde	2	1181	25.49%	@ Bodo Glimt	0	1178	48.99%	25.52%
17	1980-05-05	13.99	@ Bryne	3	1301	46.98%	Lillestrom	0	1321	27.42%	25.61%
18	1980-05-05	13.75	Skeid	2	1296	30.72%	@ Bodo Glimt	0	1250	43.59%	25.69%
19	1980-10-05	13.48	Rosenborg	2	1248	31.78%	@ Molde	0	1194	42.52%	25.70%
20	1980-09-07	13.29	@ Fredrikstad	5	1122	35.60%	Molde	2	1225	38.79%	25.61%
21	1980-08-28	13.04	@ Lillestrom	4	1327	43.10%	Start	1	1377	31.20%	25.70%
22	1980-05-26	12.82	Rosenborg	3	1246	26.83%	@ Bodo Glimt	1	1231	47.59%	25.58%
23	1980-06-22	12.33	Viking	3	1328	28.93%	@ Skeid	1	1296	45.42%	25.66%
24	1980-08-10	12.21	@ Rosenborg	4	1242	45.68%	Skeid	1	1272	28.67%	25.65%
25	1980-08-24	12.17	@ Valerenga	3	1271	51.59%	Rosenborg	0	1253	23.06%	25.35%