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1979 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Viking

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Moss

5.88 points above expected

30 points · 24.12 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

9.82 points below expected

10 points · 19.82 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viking 22 13 6 3 32 31 16 +15 28.01 +3.99
2 Moss 22 12 6 4 30 41 25 +16 24.12 +5.88
3 Start 22 12 3 7 27 36 21 +15 28.33 -1.33
4 Bryne 22 11 3 8 25 37 28 +9 23.14 +1.86
5 Lillestrom 22 7 9 6 23 25 23 +2 25.46 -2.46
6 Rosenborg 22 9 4 9 22 31 29 +2 16.63 +5.37
7 Bodo Glimt 22 8 5 9 21 19 26 -7 21.61 -0.61
8 Valerenga 22 8 4 10 20 33 41 -8 23.40 -3.40
9 Skeid 22 7 5 10 19 24 27 -3 21.71 -2.71
10 Hamarkameratene 22 7 4 11 18 29 33 -4 16.92 +1.08
11 Mjondalen 22 6 5 11 17 28 43 -15 14.84 +2.16
12 Brann 22 3 4 15 10 18 40 -22 19.82 -9.82

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Moss 1467 30 24.12 +5.88 95.0% 9 18 21 24 27 31 38
Viking 1457 32 28.01 +3.99 88.3% 14 22 25 28 31 34 41
Start 1432 27 28.33 -1.33 40.0% 13 22 26 28 31 34 42
Lillestrom 1395 23 25.46 -2.46 31.0% 9 19 23 25 28 32 40
Bryne 1366 25 23.14 +1.86 72.4% 9 17 20 23 26 30 37
Skeid 1359 19 21.71 -2.71 29.0% 6 15 19 22 24 28 36
Bodo Glimt 1316 21 21.61 -0.61 49.2% 6 15 19 22 24 28 36
Valerenga 1310 20 23.40 -3.40 23.2% 10 17 21 23 26 30 39
Hamarkameratene 1270 18 16.92 +1.08 66.4% 5 11 14 17 20 23 32
Rosenborg 1259 22 16.63 +5.37 93.6% 4 10 14 17 19 23 31
Brann 1220 10 19.82 -9.82 0.8% 6 13 17 20 22 26 34
Mjondalen 1214 17 14.84 +2.16 76.8% 2 9 12 15 17 21 28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BG BRA BRY HAM LIL MJO MOS ROS SKE STA VAL VIK
Bodo Glimt —
1-1-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
3.44
2-0-0
2.05
2-0-0
3.58
0-1-1
2.23
1-0-1
3.66
0-1-1
2.90
0-2-0
2.03
0-0-2
2.54
0-0-2
1.92
Brann
0-1-1
2.74
 —
1-0-1
1.96
0-0-2
3.02
0-0-2
2.18
0-1-1
3.65
0-0-2
2.17
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
2.56
1-0-1
1.66
0-0-2
2.40
0-0-2
1.79
Bryne
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
3.58
 —
2-0-0
3.56
1-1-0
2.46
1-1-0
3.86
0-1-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-2
3.05
1-0-1
1.96
2-0-0
2.62
0-0-2
2.08
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
2.10
2-0-0
2.51
0-0-2
1.98
 —
0-1-1
1.63
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.07
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
1.98
0-1-1
1.39
Lillestrom
0-0-2
3.50
2-0-0
3.36
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
3.92
 —
1-1-0
4.05
0-1-1
2.82
1-0-1
3.68
0-2-0
3.46
1-0-1
2.29
1-1-0
2.99
0-2-0
2.54
Mjondalen
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
1.89
0-1-1
1.69
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
1.50
 —
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-2
2.49
2-0-0
1.84
1-0-1
1.21
1-0-1
1.56
0-1-1
1.25
Moss
1-1-0
3.31
2-0-0
3.37
1-1-0
2.88
1-0-1
3.63
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
3.70
 —
1-1-0
3.71
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.17
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.27
Rosenborg
1-0-1
1.88
1-1-0
2.45
0-0-2
1.94
1-1-0
2.67
1-0-1
1.87
2-0-0
3.05
0-1-1
1.84
 —
1-0-1
2.01
0-1-1
1.52
1-0-1
1.95
1-0-1
1.42
Skeid
1-1-0
2.64
0-1-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.48
0-1-1
3.47
0-2-0
2.08
0-0-2
3.70
1-0-1
2.34
1-0-1
3.54
 —
0-0-2
2.05
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
1.84
Start
0-2-0
3.51
1-0-1
3.89
1-0-1
3.59
2-0-0
4.15
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
4.37
1-0-1
3.37
1-1-0
4.04
2-0-0
3.49
 —
2-0-0
3.54
0-0-2
2.80
Valerenga
2-0-0
3.00
2-0-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.92
1-0-1
3.56
0-1-1
2.55
1-0-1
4.00
0-1-1
2.85
1-0-1
3.60
1-0-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.00
 —
0-2-0
2.22
Viking
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.46
1-1-0
4.17
0-2-0
3.00
1-1-0
4.32
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
4.14
1-0-1
3.71
2-0-0
2.73
0-2-0
3.32
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.49 +6.0
Allowed 0.64 -5.7
Differential 0.90 +4.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.58%9.09%7.58%2.65%2.65%—29.55%
19.09%9.85%6.44%5.30%0.76%0.38%31.82%
27.58%6.44%3.03%3.03%0.76%—20.83%
32.65%5.30%3.03%1.52%——12.50%
42.65%0.76%0.76%——0.38%4.55%
5+—0.38%——0.38%—0.76%
Total29.55%31.82%20.83%12.50%4.55%0.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.21 1.21 1.77
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%27.27%—4.55%—50.00%
19.09%9.09%————18.18%
213.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%27.27%36.36%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.18 -0.32
SD 0.99 1.05 1.64
CV 1.15 0.89 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%13.64%—4.55%—40.91%
14.55%4.55%9.09%18.18%4.55%—40.91%
2—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%27.27%31.82%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.82 -1.00
SD 0.85 1.18 1.51
CV 1.04 0.65 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%—9.09%——22.73%
19.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
2—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
49.09%—4.55%———13.64%
5+———————
Total27.27%36.36%18.18%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.27 +0.41
SD 1.39 1.08 1.97
CV 0.83 0.85 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%—4.55%—36.36%
1—9.09%4.55%13.64%——27.27%
29.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%40.91%18.18%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.50 -0.18
SD 1.52 1.14 2.02
CV 1.16 0.76 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%——36.36%
19.09%18.18%—9.09%——36.36%
29.09%—————9.09%
3—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total40.91%31.82%9.09%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.05 +0.09
SD 1.21 1.13 1.69
CV 1.06 1.08 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%—40.91%
14.55%————4.55%9.09%
24.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%—36.36%
3—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
4—————4.55%4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%31.82%18.18%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.95 -0.68
SD 1.24 1.68 1.81
CV 0.98 0.86 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
14.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
218.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
34.55%22.73%—4.55%——31.82%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%50.00%9.09%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.14 +0.73
SD 0.99 1.08 1.61
CV 0.53 0.95 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
19.09%13.64%13.64%9.09%——45.45%
213.64%——4.55%——18.18%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%22.73%27.27%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.32 +0.09
SD 1.10 1.13 1.57
CV 0.78 0.86 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—36.36%
19.09%—22.73%———31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
3——4.55%———4.55%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total36.36%18.18%36.36%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 1.23 -0.14
SD 1.11 1.15 1.58
CV 1.02 0.94 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
113.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
2—4.55%————4.55%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
413.64%4.55%————18.18%
5+———————
Total36.36%36.36%22.73%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.95 +0.68
SD 1.56 0.90 2.10
CV 0.95 0.94 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
113.64%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
2—9.09%—9.09%4.55%—22.73%
3—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
4———————
5+————4.55%—4.55%
Total18.18%31.82%9.09%27.27%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.86 -0.36
SD 1.22 1.39 1.53
CV 0.82 0.75 —
Max 5 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%——4.55%—13.64%
122.73%18.18%4.55%———45.45%
218.18%4.55%4.55%———27.27%
39.09%—4.55%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total54.55%27.27%13.64%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 0.73 +0.68
SD 0.91 1.03 1.52
CV 0.64 1.42 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Moss 30 24.12 +5.88
2 Rosenborg 22 16.63 +5.37
3 Viking 32 28.01 +3.99
4 Mjondalen 17 14.84 +2.16
5 Bryne 25 23.14 +1.86

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 10 19.82 -9.82
2 Valerenga 20 23.40 -3.40
3 Skeid 19 21.71 -2.71
4 Lillestrom 23 25.46 -2.46
5 Start 27 28.33 -1.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bryne 4 May 24 – Jun 11 1 in 87
2 Rosenborg 3 May 20 – Jun 4 1 in 60
3 Viking 4 May 28 – Jun 18 1 in 24
4 Valerenga 3 Jun 11 – Jun 25 1 in 17
5 Start 5 Aug 6 – Sep 9 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 6 Aug 6 – Sep 16 1 in 30
2 Skeid 3 Jul 30 – Aug 19 1 in 29
3 Start 2 May 24 – May 27 1 in 21
4 Mjondalen 4 Jun 4 – Jun 18 1 in 20
5 Valerenga 3 Oct 1 – Oct 14 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mjondalen 6 Jun 25 – Aug 23 1 in 302
2 Moss 12 Jun 25 – Oct 14 1 in 98
3 Viking 10 Apr 22 – Jun 18 1 in 37
4 Rosenborg 4 Sep 2 – Oct 1 1 in 12
5 Bryne 5 Sep 9 – Oct 14 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 12 Jun 25 – Oct 14 1 in 83
2 Lillestrom 5 May 21 – Jun 11 1 in 22
3 Skeid 5 Jun 25 – Aug 19 1 in 21
4 Bryne 5 Jun 18 – Aug 5 1 in 18
5 Bodo Glimt 5 Apr 22 – May 24 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Viking32.46%24.51%15.24%10.38%6.99%4.57%2.69%1.70%0.81%0.48%0.15%0.02%
Moss7.78%11.14%14.32%14.21%13.64%12.08%9.37%7.52%4.98%3.04%1.44%0.48%
Start35.89%24.02%15.31%9.96%6.04%3.95%2.30%1.40%0.71%0.31%0.07%0.04%
Bryne4.10%8.61%10.84%12.67%13.75%12.89%11.57%9.93%7.53%4.69%2.31%1.11%
Lillestrom11.46%14.55%16.56%14.77%12.76%10.13%7.87%5.48%3.65%1.72%0.80%0.25%
Rosenborg0.07%0.31%0.70%1.20%2.51%4.13%6.69%8.91%13.82%19.28%22.10%20.28%
Bodo Glimt1.85%3.46%6.04%8.65%10.54%12.23%13.87%13.57%11.75%9.31%5.81%2.92%
Valerenga3.74%7.37%10.82%12.76%13.00%12.77%11.96%10.83%7.81%5.05%2.99%0.90%
Skeid1.98%4.18%6.54%8.93%10.92%13.02%13.35%12.96%11.33%8.60%5.68%2.51%
Hamarkameratene0.08%0.40%0.73%1.58%2.54%4.40%6.07%9.84%13.84%18.29%22.60%19.63%
Mjondalen—0.05%0.12%0.37%0.75%1.39%2.77%4.52%8.00%14.15%23.92%43.96%
Brann0.59%1.40%2.78%4.52%6.56%8.44%11.49%13.34%15.77%15.08%12.13%7.90%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.88%
Slight Edge
45.45%21.97%32.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 45.00 Elo pts.
329 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
01000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Viking, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.08 * Some Luck: 3.08 to 4.62 * Lucky: 4.62 to 6.16 * Wild Swing: 6.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.52 * Close: 1.52 to 2.28 * Off: 2.28 to 3.04 * Way Off: 3.04 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.20 points
Some Luck
03.8510
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
01.904
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.99%
Moss
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.79%
Brann
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.28
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Clear Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.18
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.35
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.64
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1450.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Start 99.58% 0.42%
Viking 99.35% 0.65%
Lillestrom 97.23% 2.77%
Moss 95.04% 4.96%
Bryne 91.89% 8.11%
Valerenga 91.06% 8.94%
Skeid 83.21% 16.79%
Bodo Glimt 81.96% 18.04%
Brann 64.89% 35.11%
Hamarkameratene 39.48% 60.52%
Rosenborg 38.34% 61.66%
Mjondalen 17.97% 82.03%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1979-04-22 Skeid W 2-1 1356 1367 46.1% 23.3% 30.6% +7.3 2
1979-04-22 @ Brann L 1-2 1367 1356 30.6% 23.3% 46.1% -7.3 0
1979-04-22 Viking L 2-3 1326 1412 35.8% 23.3% 40.9% -7.8 0
1979-04-22 @ Bryne W 3-2 1412 1326 40.9% 23.3% 35.8% +7.8 2
1979-04-22 Lillestrom D 0-0 1240 1424 23.7% 22.8% 53.6% +1.7 1
1979-04-22 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1424 1240 53.6% 22.8% 23.7% -1.7 1
1979-04-22 Bodo Glimt W 2-0 1179 1375 22.4% 22.7% 54.9% +23.6 2
1979-04-22 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1375 1179 54.9% 22.7% 22.4% -23.6 0
1979-04-22 Moss W 4-0 1416 1346 55.8% 22.9% 21.3% +20.6 2
1979-04-22 @ Start L 0-4 1346 1416 21.3% 22.9% 55.8% -20.6 0
1979-04-22 Mjondalen W 5-4 1387 1236 63.3% 22.2% 14.5% +3.5 2
1979-04-22 @ Valerenga L 4-5 1236 1387 14.5% 22.2% 63.3% -3.5 0
1979-04-29 Start D 1-1 1351 1437 35.8% 23.3% 40.9% +0.2 1
1979-04-29 @ Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1437 1351 40.9% 23.3% 35.8% -0.2 3
1979-04-29 Valerenga W 3-1 1422 1391 51.4% 23.1% 25.4% +10.9 3
1979-04-29 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1391 1422 25.4% 23.1% 51.4% -10.9 2
1979-04-29 Brann W 2-1 1233 1363 29.9% 23.1% 47.0% +10.3 2
1979-04-29 @ Mjondalen L 1-2 1363 1233 47.0% 23.1% 29.9% -10.3 2
1979-04-29 Bryne W 3-1 1325 1319 48.4% 23.2% 28.4% +11.9 2
1979-04-29 @ Moss L 1-3 1319 1325 28.4% 23.2% 48.4% -11.9 0
1979-04-29 Rosenborg W 1-0 1360 1202 63.8% 22.2% 14.0% +4.0 2
1979-04-29 @ Skeid L 0-1 1202 1360 14.0% 22.2% 63.8% -4.0 2
1979-04-29 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1420 1242 65.4% 21.9% 12.7% +6.8 4
1979-04-29 @ Viking L 0-2 1242 1420 12.7% 21.9% 65.4% -6.8 1
1979-05-06 Bodo Glimt W 4-0 1307 1352 41.5% 23.3% 35.1% +30.9 2
1979-05-06 @ Bryne L 0-4 1352 1307 35.1% 23.3% 41.5% -30.9 1
1979-05-06 Moss W 3-2 1235 1337 33.6% 23.2% 43.2% +9.1 3
1979-05-06 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-3 1337 1235 43.2% 23.2% 33.6% -9.1 2
1979-05-06 Skeid W 1-0 1243 1364 31.1% 23.1% 45.8% +10.6 4
1979-05-06 @ Mjondalen L 0-1 1364 1243 45.8% 23.1% 31.1% -10.6 2
1979-05-06 Rosenborg D 1-1 1437 1198 69.5% 21.1% 9.4% -3.4 4
1979-05-06 @ Start D 1-1 1198 1437 9.4% 21.1% 69.5% +3.4 3
1979-05-06 Viking D 0-0 1380 1427 41.3% 23.3% 35.4% -0.3 3
1979-05-06 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1427 1380 35.4% 23.3% 41.3% +0.3 5
1979-05-13 Mjondalen W 2-0 1433 1254 65.5% 21.9% 12.6% +6.8 5
1979-05-13 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1254 1433 12.6% 21.9% 65.5% -6.8 4
1979-05-13 Valerenga D 1-1 1328 1379 40.6% 23.3% 36.0% -0.2 3
1979-05-13 @ Moss D 1-1 1379 1328 36.0% 23.3% 40.6% +0.2 4
1979-05-13 Bryne L 1-3 1202 1338 29.2% 23.1% 47.7% -12.1 3
1979-05-13 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1338 1202 47.7% 23.1% 29.2% +12.2 4
1979-05-13 Start L 0-4 1353 1433 36.6% 23.3% 40.2% -31.9 2
1979-05-13 @ Skeid W 4-0 1433 1353 40.2% 23.3% 36.6% +31.8 6
1979-05-13 Brann W 1-0 1427 1353 56.2% 22.9% 20.9% +5.7 7
1979-05-13 @ Viking L 0-1 1353 1427 20.9% 22.9% 56.2% -5.7 2
1979-05-20 Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1347 1321 50.8% 23.2% 26.0% -1.3 3
1979-05-20 @ Brann D 1-1 1321 1347 26.0% 23.2% 50.8% +1.3 2
1979-05-20 Skeid L 0-1 1350 1321 51.0% 23.2% 25.8% -11.7 4
1979-05-20 @ Bryne W 1-0 1321 1350 25.8% 23.2% 51.0% +11.7 4
1979-05-20 Start L 0-1 1244 1465 20.0% 22.4% 57.6% -5.4 3
1979-05-20 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1465 1244 57.6% 22.4% 20.0% +5.4 8
1979-05-20 Moss L 0-1 1247 1328 36.5% 23.3% 40.3% -8.9 4
1979-05-20 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1328 1247 40.3% 23.3% 36.5% +8.9 5
1979-05-20 Rosenborg L 2-4 1380 1190 66.3% 21.8% 11.9% -22.0 4
1979-05-20 @ Valerenga W 4-2 1190 1380 11.9% 21.8% 66.3% +22.0 5
1979-05-21 Viking D 1-1 1440 1433 48.5% 23.2% 28.3% -1.0 6
1979-05-21 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1433 1440 28.3% 23.2% 48.5% +1.0 8
1979-05-24 Valerenga L 0-1 1322 1358 42.8% 23.3% 33.9% -10.1 2
1979-05-24 @ Bodo Glimt W 1-0 1358 1322 33.9% 23.3% 42.8% +10.1 6
1979-05-24 Brann W 2-0 1337 1346 46.4% 23.3% 30.4% +14.5 7
1979-05-24 @ Moss L 0-2 1346 1337 30.4% 23.3% 46.4% -14.5 3
1979-05-24 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1212 1239 44.0% 23.3% 32.7% +15.4 7
1979-05-24 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1239 1212 32.7% 23.3% 44.0% -15.4 3
1979-05-24 Lillestrom D 0-0 1333 1439 33.0% 23.2% 43.8% +0.6 5
1979-05-24 @ Skeid D 0-0 1439 1333 43.8% 23.2% 33.0% -0.6 7
1979-05-24 Bryne L 1-2 1470 1338 61.7% 22.4% 15.8% -13.2 8
1979-05-24 @ Start W 2-1 1338 1470 15.8% 22.4% 61.7% +13.2 6
1979-05-24 Mjondalen D 2-2 1434 1238 66.7% 21.7% 11.6% -2.3 9
1979-05-24 @ Viking D 2-2 1238 1434 11.6% 21.7% 66.7% +2.3 5
1979-05-27 Start W 1-0 1331 1457 30.5% 23.1% 46.4% +10.8 5
1979-05-27 @ Brann L 0-1 1457 1331 46.4% 23.1% 30.5% -10.8 8
1979-05-27 Skeid D 0-0 1223 1334 32.5% 23.2% 44.4% +0.7 4
1979-05-27 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1334 1223 44.4% 23.2% 32.5% -0.7 6
1979-05-27 Bodo Glimt L 0-2 1438 1312 61.2% 22.5% 16.3% -26.2 7
1979-05-27 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1312 1438 16.3% 22.5% 61.2% +26.2 4
1979-05-28 Bryne L 2-3 1368 1351 49.6% 23.2% 27.2% -10.2 6
1979-05-28 @ Valerenga W 3-2 1351 1368 27.2% 23.2% 49.6% +10.2 8
1979-05-28 Moss W 1-0 1431 1351 56.8% 22.9% 20.4% +5.5 11
1979-05-28 @ Viking L 0-1 1351 1431 20.4% 22.9% 56.8% -5.5 7
1979-06-04 Mjondalen W 2-0 1338 1240 58.5% 22.7% 18.7% +9.7 6
1979-06-04 @ Bodo Glimt L 0-2 1240 1338 18.7% 22.7% 58.5% -9.7 5
1979-06-04 Hamarkameratene W 4-0 1361 1224 62.2% 22.4% 15.5% +15.5 10
1979-06-04 @ Bryne L 0-4 1224 1361 15.5% 22.4% 62.2% -15.5 4
1979-06-04 Lillestrom D 1-1 1346 1412 38.5% 23.3% 38.2% -0.0 8
1979-06-04 @ Moss D 1-1 1412 1346 38.2% 23.3% 38.5% +0.0 8
1979-06-04 Brann W 1-0 1227 1342 31.8% 23.2% 45.0% +10.5 9
1979-06-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1342 1227 45.0% 23.2% 31.8% -10.5 5
1979-06-04 Viking L 1-2 1333 1437 33.3% 23.2% 43.5% -7.8 6
1979-06-04 @ Skeid W 2-1 1437 1333 43.5% 23.2% 33.3% +7.8 13
1979-06-04 Valerenga W 4-1 1446 1358 57.7% 22.8% 19.5% +12.3 10
1979-06-04 @ Start L 1-4 1358 1446 19.5% 22.8% 57.7% -12.3 6
1979-06-11 Valerenga L 0-1 1332 1345 45.8% 23.3% 30.9% -10.7 5
1979-06-11 @ Brann W 1-0 1345 1332 30.9% 23.3% 45.8% +10.7 8
1979-06-11 Lillestrom W 3-0 1377 1412 42.9% 23.3% 33.8% +23.0 12
1979-06-11 @ Bryne L 0-3 1412 1377 33.8% 23.3% 42.9% -23.0 8
1979-06-11 Mjondalen W 6-1 1208 1231 44.6% 23.3% 32.1% +29.3 6
1979-06-11 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-6 1231 1208 32.1% 23.3% 44.6% -29.4 5
1979-06-11 Moss L 1-3 1238 1346 32.7% 23.2% 44.1% -13.3 9
1979-06-11 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1346 1238 44.1% 23.2% 32.7% +13.3 10
1979-06-11 Bodo Glimt W 2-0 1325 1348 44.6% 23.3% 32.1% +15.2 8
1979-06-11 @ Skeid L 0-2 1348 1325 32.1% 23.3% 44.6% -15.2 6
1979-06-11 Viking L 0-3 1459 1445 49.3% 23.2% 27.5% -31.1 10
1979-06-11 @ Start W 3-0 1445 1459 27.5% 23.2% 49.3% +31.1 15
1979-06-14 Lillestrom L 0-4 1321 1389 38.3% 23.3% 38.5% -33.0 5
1979-06-14 @ Brann W 4-0 1389 1321 38.5% 23.3% 38.3% +33.0 10
1979-06-14 Hamarkameratene W 3-2 1333 1238 58.3% 22.8% 19.0% +4.7 8
1979-06-14 @ Bodo Glimt L 2-3 1238 1333 19.0% 22.8% 58.3% -4.7 6
1979-06-14 Rosenborg L 2-3 1201 1224 44.5% 23.3% 32.2% -9.3 5
1979-06-14 @ Mjondalen W 3-2 1224 1201 32.2% 23.3% 44.5% +9.3 11
1979-06-18 Bryne W 3-0 1288 1400 32.2% 23.2% 44.6% +28.5 7
1979-06-18 @ Brann L 0-3 1400 1288 44.6% 23.2% 32.2% -28.5 12
1979-06-18 Rosenborg L 0-2 1422 1234 66.2% 21.8% 12.0% -28.3 10
1979-06-18 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1234 1422 12.0% 21.8% 66.2% +28.3 13
1979-06-18 Start L 0-4 1192 1428 18.6% 22.3% 59.1% -18.2 5
1979-06-18 @ Mjondalen W 4-0 1428 1192 59.1% 22.3% 18.6% +18.2 12
1979-06-18 Skeid L 1-2 1359 1340 49.9% 23.2% 26.9% -10.8 10
1979-06-18 @ Moss W 2-1 1340 1359 26.9% 23.2% 49.9% +10.8 10
1979-06-18 Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1356 1233 60.9% 22.5% 16.6% +7.6 10
1979-06-18 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1233 1356 16.6% 22.5% 60.9% -7.6 6
1979-06-18 Bodo Glimt W 2-0 1476 1337 62.3% 22.4% 15.4% +8.2 17
1979-06-18 @ Viking L 0-2 1337 1476 15.4% 22.4% 62.3% -8.1 8
1979-06-25 Moss L 0-2 1329 1348 45.1% 23.3% 31.6% -19.8 8
1979-06-25 @ Bodo Glimt W 2-0 1348 1329 31.6% 23.3% 45.1% +19.8 12
1979-06-25 Mjondalen D 0-0 1371 1174 66.8% 21.7% 11.5% -3.4 13
1979-06-25 @ Bryne D 0-0 1174 1371 11.5% 21.7% 66.8% +3.4 6
1979-06-25 Brann W 4-1 1226 1317 35.1% 23.2% 41.7% +22.8 8
1979-06-25 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-4 1317 1226 41.7% 23.2% 35.1% -22.8 7
1979-06-25 Viking W 1-0 1262 1484 19.9% 22.4% 57.7% +13.1 15
1979-06-25 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1484 1262 57.7% 22.4% 19.9% -13.1 17
1979-06-25 Valerenga L 1-2 1351 1363 46.0% 23.3% 30.8% -10.1 10
1979-06-25 @ Skeid W 2-1 1363 1351 30.8% 23.3% 46.0% +10.1 12
1979-06-25 Lillestrom W 3-1 1446 1394 53.8% 23.0% 23.2% +10.1 14
1979-06-25 @ Start L 1-3 1394 1446 23.2% 23.0% 53.8% -10.1 10
1979-07-02 Rosenborg W 2-1 1309 1275 51.7% 23.1% 25.1% +6.2 10
1979-07-02 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-2 1275 1309 25.1% 23.1% 51.7% -6.2 15
1979-07-02 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1384 1248 62.0% 22.4% 15.6% +4.4 12
1979-07-02 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1248 1384 15.6% 22.4% 62.0% -4.4 8
1979-07-02 Valerenga W 2-1 1177 1373 22.4% 22.7% 55.0% +11.8 8
1979-07-02 @ Mjondalen L 1-2 1373 1177 55.0% 22.7% 22.4% -11.8 12
1979-07-02 Start W 2-0 1368 1456 35.5% 23.2% 41.3% +18.4 14
1979-07-02 @ Moss L 0-2 1456 1368 41.3% 23.2% 35.5% -18.4 14
1979-07-02 Brann D 2-2 1341 1294 53.2% 23.1% 23.7% -1.1 11
1979-07-02 @ Skeid D 2-2 1294 1341 23.7% 23.1% 53.2% +1.1 8
1979-07-02 Bryne W 1-0 1471 1368 59.0% 22.7% 18.3% +5.0 19
1979-07-02 @ Viking L 0-1 1368 1471 18.3% 22.7% 59.0% -5.0 13
1979-07-29 Moss D 1-1 1363 1386 44.5% 23.3% 32.2% -0.6 14
1979-07-29 @ Bryne D 1-1 1386 1363 32.2% 23.3% 44.5% +0.6 15
1979-07-29 Viking D 1-1 1244 1476 19.0% 22.3% 58.7% +2.1 9
1979-07-29 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1476 1244 58.7% 22.3% 19.0% -2.1 20
1979-07-29 Bodo Glimt D 0-0 1438 1316 60.8% 22.5% 16.7% -2.7 15
1979-07-29 @ Start D 0-0 1316 1438 16.7% 22.5% 60.8% +2.7 11
1979-07-30 Mjondalen D 2-2 1295 1189 59.3% 22.7% 18.0% -1.6 9
1979-07-30 @ Brann D 2-2 1189 1295 18.0% 22.7% 59.3% +1.6 9
1979-07-30 Skeid W 3-2 1269 1340 37.8% 23.3% 38.9% +8.3 17
1979-07-30 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1340 1269 38.9% 23.3% 37.8% -8.3 11
1979-07-30 Lillestrom D 3-3 1362 1388 44.1% 23.3% 32.6% -0.3 13
1979-07-30 @ Valerenga D 3-3 1388 1362 32.6% 23.3% 44.1% +0.3 13
1979-08-05 Bryne W 2-1 1318 1362 41.6% 23.3% 35.0% +8.1 13
1979-08-05 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-2 1362 1318 35.0% 23.3% 41.6% -8.1 14
1979-08-05 Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1387 1246 62.5% 22.3% 15.2% +7.0 17
1979-08-05 @ Moss L 1-3 1246 1387 15.2% 22.3% 62.5% -7.0 9
1979-08-06 Brann W 3-1 1389 1293 58.3% 22.7% 19.0% +8.5 15
1979-08-06 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1293 1389 19.0% 22.7% 58.3% -8.5 9
1979-08-06 Start L 2-3 1277 1435 26.6% 22.9% 50.5% -6.2 17
1979-08-06 @ Rosenborg W 3-2 1435 1277 50.5% 22.9% 26.6% +6.2 17
1979-08-06 Mjondalen L 1-2 1332 1191 62.5% 22.3% 15.2% -13.4 11
1979-08-06 @ Skeid W 2-1 1191 1332 15.2% 22.3% 62.5% +13.4 11
1979-08-06 Valerenga D 1-1 1474 1361 60.0% 22.6% 17.4% -2.3 21
1979-08-06 @ Viking D 1-1 1361 1474 17.4% 22.6% 60.0% +2.3 14
1979-08-19 Rosenborg W 2-1 1354 1271 57.1% 22.8% 20.1% +5.2 16
1979-08-19 @ Bryne L 1-2 1271 1354 20.1% 22.8% 57.1% -5.1 17
1979-08-19 Bodo Glimt W 2-0 1239 1326 35.6% 23.2% 41.2% +18.4 11
1979-08-19 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1326 1239 41.2% 23.2% 35.6% -18.4 13
1979-08-19 Lillestrom D 0-0 1204 1397 22.7% 22.7% 54.6% +1.9 12
1979-08-19 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1397 1204 54.6% 22.7% 22.7% -1.8 16
1979-08-19 Skeid W 1-0 1441 1318 60.9% 22.5% 16.6% +4.6 19
1979-08-19 @ Start L 0-1 1318 1441 16.6% 22.5% 60.9% -4.6 11
1979-08-19 Moss L 0-3 1364 1394 43.5% 23.3% 33.2% -28.0 14
1979-08-19 @ Valerenga W 3-0 1394 1364 33.2% 23.3% 43.5% +28.0 19
1979-08-20 Viking L 0-2 1285 1472 23.4% 22.7% 53.9% -11.7 9
1979-08-20 @ Brann W 2-0 1472 1285 53.9% 22.7% 23.4% +11.7 23
1979-08-22 Valerenga L 1-2 1266 1336 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% -8.6 17
1979-08-22 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1336 1266 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% +8.6 16
1979-08-22 Bryne W 2-1 1314 1359 41.4% 23.3% 35.3% +8.2 13
1979-08-22 @ Skeid L 1-2 1359 1314 35.3% 23.3% 41.4% -8.2 16
1979-08-23 Brann W 2-0 1308 1273 51.8% 23.1% 25.1% +12.4 15
1979-08-23 @ Bodo Glimt L 0-2 1273 1308 25.1% 23.1% 51.8% -12.4 9
1979-08-23 Mjondalen D 3-3 1422 1206 68.1% 21.4% 10.5% -2.0 20
1979-08-23 @ Moss D 3-3 1206 1422 10.5% 21.4% 68.1% +2.0 13
1979-08-26 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1446 1258 66.1% 21.8% 12.0% +3.2 21
1979-08-26 @ Start L 1-2 1258 1446 12.0% 21.8% 66.1% -3.2 11
1979-09-02 Start L 0-3 1351 1449 34.2% 23.2% 42.6% -23.1 16
1979-09-02 @ Bryne W 3-0 1449 1351 42.6% 23.2% 34.2% +23.1 23
1979-09-02 Rosenborg D 1-1 1254 1257 47.2% 23.2% 29.6% -0.9 12
1979-09-02 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1257 1254 29.6% 23.2% 47.2% +0.9 18
1979-09-02 Skeid D 0-0 1395 1322 56.1% 22.9% 21.0% -2.0 17
1979-09-02 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1322 1395 21.0% 22.9% 56.1% +2.0 14
1979-09-02 Viking L 0-1 1208 1483 15.4% 21.8% 62.7% -4.3 13
1979-09-02 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1483 1208 62.7% 21.8% 15.4% +4.3 25
1979-09-03 Moss L 1-3 1261 1420 26.4% 22.9% 50.7% -11.2 9
1979-09-03 @ Brann W 3-1 1420 1261 50.7% 22.9% 26.4% +11.2 22
1979-09-03 Bodo Glimt W 1-0 1344 1320 50.5% 23.2% 26.3% +6.9 18
1979-09-03 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1320 1344 26.3% 23.2% 50.5% -6.8 15
1979-09-09 Lillestrom W 1-0 1314 1393 36.6% 23.3% 40.1% +9.5 17
1979-09-09 @ Bodo Glimt L 0-1 1393 1314 40.1% 23.3% 36.6% -9.6 17
1979-09-09 Valerenga W 1-0 1328 1351 44.5% 23.3% 32.2% +8.1 18
1979-09-09 @ Bryne L 0-1 1351 1328 32.2% 23.3% 44.5% -8.1 18
1979-09-09 Viking W 2-1 1431 1488 40.0% 23.3% 36.8% +8.4 24
1979-09-09 @ Moss L 1-2 1488 1431 36.8% 23.3% 40.0% -8.4 25
1979-09-09 Mjondalen W 3-0 1258 1204 54.0% 23.0% 22.9% +16.8 20
1979-09-09 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1204 1258 22.9% 23.0% 54.0% -16.8 13
1979-09-09 Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1324 1253 55.8% 22.9% 21.3% -12.0 14
1979-09-09 @ Skeid W 2-1 1253 1324 21.3% 22.9% 55.8% +12.0 14
1979-09-09 Brann W 1-0 1472 1250 68.5% 21.3% 10.2% +2.9 25
1979-09-09 @ Start L 0-1 1250 1472 10.2% 21.3% 68.5% -2.9 9
1979-09-16 Skeid D 0-0 1323 1312 49.0% 23.2% 27.8% -1.2 18
1979-09-16 @ Bodo Glimt D 0-0 1312 1323 27.8% 23.2% 49.0% +1.2 15
1979-09-16 Bryne D 1-1 1384 1336 53.2% 23.1% 23.7% -1.5 18
1979-09-16 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1336 1384 23.7% 23.1% 53.2% +1.5 19
1979-09-16 Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1187 1265 36.8% 23.3% 39.9% +15.6 15
1979-09-16 @ Mjondalen L 1-3 1265 1187 39.9% 23.3% 36.8% -15.6 14
1979-09-16 Rosenborg D 1-1 1440 1275 64.4% 22.1% 13.5% -2.8 25
1979-09-16 @ Moss D 1-1 1275 1440 13.5% 22.1% 64.4% +2.8 21
1979-09-16 Brann W 3-1 1343 1247 58.4% 22.7% 18.8% +8.5 20
1979-09-16 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1247 1343 18.8% 22.7% 58.4% -8.5 9
1979-09-16 Start W 1-0 1479 1475 48.1% 23.2% 28.7% +7.4 27
1979-09-16 @ Viking L 0-1 1475 1479 28.7% 23.2% 48.1% -7.4 25
1979-10-01 Rosenborg D 0-0 1238 1278 42.3% 23.3% 34.4% -0.4 10
1979-10-01 @ Brann D 0-0 1278 1238 34.4% 23.3% 42.3% +0.4 22
1979-10-01 Bryne L 0-1 1250 1338 35.5% 23.2% 41.3% -8.7 14
1979-10-01 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1338 1250 41.3% 23.2% 35.5% +8.7 21
1979-10-01 Moss L 1-3 1382 1437 40.2% 23.3% 36.5% -15.6 18
1979-10-01 @ Lillestrom W 3-1 1437 1382 36.5% 23.3% 40.2% +15.6 27
1979-10-01 Bodo Glimt L 0-1 1202 1322 31.3% 23.1% 45.6% -7.9 15
1979-10-01 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1322 1202 45.6% 23.1% 31.3% +7.9 20
1979-10-01 Start L 1-3 1352 1468 31.7% 23.2% 45.1% -13.0 20
1979-10-01 @ Valerenga W 3-1 1468 1352 45.1% 23.2% 31.7% +13.0 27
1979-10-01 Skeid L 0-4 1486 1313 65.1% 22.0% 13.0% -52.9 27
1979-10-01 @ Viking W 4-0 1313 1486 13.0% 22.0% 65.1% +52.9 17
1979-10-07 Viking L 0-2 1330 1434 33.3% 23.2% 43.5% -15.6 20
1979-10-07 @ Bodo Glimt W 2-0 1434 1330 43.5% 23.2% 33.3% +15.6 29
1979-10-07 Brann W 3-1 1346 1238 59.6% 22.6% 17.8% +8.0 23
1979-10-07 @ Bryne L 1-3 1238 1346 17.8% 22.6% 59.6% -8.0 10
1979-10-07 Valerenga W 2-0 1241 1339 34.2% 23.2% 42.6% +18.9 16
1979-10-07 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1339 1241 42.6% 23.2% 34.2% -18.9 20
1979-10-07 Lillestrom L 0-1 1278 1366 35.4% 23.2% 41.3% -8.7 22
1979-10-07 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1366 1278 41.3% 23.2% 35.4% +8.7 20
1979-10-07 Moss L 0-2 1366 1452 35.7% 23.2% 41.1% -16.5 17
1979-10-07 @ Skeid W 2-0 1452 1366 41.1% 23.2% 35.7% +16.5 29
1979-10-07 Mjondalen L 0-2 1481 1195 72.2% 20.4% 7.4% -30.8 27
1979-10-07 @ Start W 2-0 1195 1481 7.4% 20.4% 72.2% +30.8 17
1979-10-10 Lillestrom D 1-1 1449 1375 56.2% 22.9% 20.9% -1.8 30
1979-10-10 @ Viking D 1-1 1375 1449 20.9% 22.9% 56.2% +1.8 21
1979-10-14 Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1230 1260 43.5% 23.3% 33.1% -9.6 10
1979-10-14 @ Brann W 2-1 1260 1230 33.1% 23.3% 43.5% +9.6 18
1979-10-14 Start W 2-0 1377 1450 37.6% 23.3% 39.1% +17.7 23
1979-10-14 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1450 1377 39.1% 23.3% 37.6% -17.7 27
1979-10-14 Bryne L 2-4 1225 1354 30.0% 23.1% 46.9% -11.1 17
1979-10-14 @ Mjondalen W 4-2 1354 1225 46.9% 23.1% 30.0% +11.1 25
1979-10-14 Bodo Glimt D 2-2 1469 1314 63.6% 22.2% 14.2% -2.0 30
1979-10-14 @ Moss D 2-2 1314 1469 14.2% 22.2% 63.6% +2.0 21
1979-10-14 Skeid L 2-3 1320 1349 43.6% 23.3% 33.1% -9.2 20
1979-10-14 @ Valerenga W 3-2 1349 1320 33.1% 23.3% 43.6% +9.1 19
1979-10-14 Rosenborg W 3-0 1447 1269 65.4% 21.9% 12.7% +9.9 32
1979-10-14 @ Viking L 0-3 1269 1447 12.7% 21.9% 65.4% -9.9 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1979-10-07 7.39% Mjondalen 1195 2 @ Start 1481 0
2 1979-05-20 11.94% Rosenborg 1190 4 @ Valerenga 1380 2
3 1979-06-18 12.02% Rosenborg 1234 2 @ Lillestrom 1422 0
4 1979-10-01 12.96% Skeid 1313 4 @ Viking 1486 0
5 1979-08-06 15.21% Mjondalen 1191 2 @ Skeid 1332 1
6 1979-05-24 15.85% Bryne 1338 2 @ Start 1470 1
7 1979-05-27 16.31% Bodo Glimt 1312 2 @ Lillestrom 1438 0
8 1979-06-25 19.86% @ Rosenborg 1262 1 Viking 1484 0
9 1979-09-09 21.30% Hamarkameratene 1253 2 @ Skeid 1324 1
10 1979-07-02 22.38% @ Mjondalen 1177 2 Valerenga 1373 1
11 1979-04-22 22.39% @ Rosenborg 1179 2 Bodo Glimt 1375 0
12 1979-05-20 25.81% Skeid 1321 1 @ Bryne 1350 0
13 1979-06-18 26.94% Skeid 1340 2 @ Moss 1359 1
14 1979-05-28 27.20% Bryne 1351 3 @ Valerenga 1368 2
15 1979-06-11 27.49% Viking 1445 3 @ Start 1459 0
16 1979-04-29 29.88% @ Mjondalen 1233 2 Brann 1363 1
17 1979-05-27 30.46% @ Brann 1331 1 Start 1457 0
18 1979-06-25 30.76% Valerenga 1363 2 @ Skeid 1351 1
19 1979-06-11 30.92% Valerenga 1345 1 @ Brann 1332 0
20 1979-05-06 31.10% @ Mjondalen 1243 1 Skeid 1364 0
21 1979-06-25 31.65% Moss 1348 2 @ Bodo Glimt 1329 0
22 1979-06-04 31.82% @ Rosenborg 1227 1 Brann 1342 0
23 1979-06-14 32.16% Rosenborg 1224 3 @ Mjondalen 1201 2
24 1979-06-18 32.25% @ Brann 1288 3 Bryne 1400 0
25 1979-10-14 33.09% Skeid 1349 3 @ Valerenga 1320 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1979-10-01 52.87 Skeid 4 1313 12.96% @ Viking 0 1486 65.06% 21.98%
2 1979-06-14 32.98 Lillestrom 4 1389 38.45% @ Brann 0 1321 38.26% 23.29%
3 1979-05-13 31.85 Start 4 1433 40.15% @ Skeid 0 1353 36.59% 23.27%
4 1979-06-11 31.12 Viking 3 1445 27.49% @ Start 0 1459 49.31% 23.20%
5 1979-05-06 30.89 @ Bryne 4 1307 41.55% Bodo Glimt 0 1352 35.15% 23.30%
6 1979-10-07 30.80 Mjondalen 2 1195 7.39% @ Start 0 1481 72.21% 20.40%
7 1979-06-11 29.35 @ Hamarkameratene 6 1208 44.64% Mjondalen 1 1231 32.07% 23.29%
8 1979-06-18 28.50 @ Brann 3 1288 32.25% Bryne 0 1400 44.57% 23.17%
9 1979-06-18 28.34 Rosenborg 2 1234 12.02% @ Lillestrom 0 1422 66.19% 21.79%
10 1979-08-19 27.98 Moss 3 1394 33.17% @ Valerenga 0 1364 43.53% 23.30%
11 1979-05-27 26.24 Bodo Glimt 2 1312 16.31% @ Lillestrom 0 1438 61.22% 22.47%
12 1979-04-22 23.57 @ Rosenborg 2 1179 22.39% Bodo Glimt 0 1375 54.95% 22.65%
13 1979-09-02 23.10 Start 3 1449 42.63% @ Bryne 0 1351 34.15% 23.22%
14 1979-06-11 22.95 @ Bryne 3 1377 42.88% Lillestrom 0 1412 33.82% 23.30%
15 1979-06-25 22.76 @ Hamarkameratene 4 1226 35.06% Brann 1 1317 41.70% 23.24%
16 1979-05-20 21.98 Rosenborg 4 1190 11.94% @ Valerenga 2 1380 66.28% 21.78%
17 1979-04-22 20.57 @ Start 4 1416 55.77% Moss 0 1346 21.31% 22.92%
18 1979-06-25 19.83 Moss 2 1348 31.65% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1329 45.06% 23.28%
19 1979-10-07 18.91 @ Hamarkameratene 2 1241 34.18% Valerenga 0 1339 42.60% 23.22%
20 1979-07-02 18.43 @ Moss 2 1368 35.48% Start 0 1456 41.27% 23.25%
21 1979-08-19 18.40 @ Hamarkameratene 2 1239 35.58% Bodo Glimt 0 1326 41.17% 23.25%
22 1979-06-18 18.20 Start 4 1428 59.07% @ Mjondalen 0 1192 18.64% 22.28%
23 1979-10-14 17.68 @ Lillestrom 2 1377 37.60% Start 0 1450 39.12% 23.28%
24 1979-09-09 16.77 @ Rosenborg 3 1258 54.04% Mjondalen 0 1204 22.94% 23.02%
25 1979-10-07 16.46 Moss 2 1452 41.08% @ Skeid 0 1366 35.66% 23.25%