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1977 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Lillestrom

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lillestrom

6.33 points above expected

36 points · 29.67 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Rosenborg

9.39 points below expected

7 points · 16.39 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lillestrom 22 16 4 2 36 42 11 +31 29.67 +6.33
2 Bodo Glimt 22 10 8 4 28 33 24 +9 24.21 +3.79
3 Molde 22 12 3 7 27 31 28 +3 23.37 +3.63
4 Start 22 9 7 6 25 37 30 +7 21.19 +3.81
5 Viking 22 9 5 8 23 41 34 +7 23.34 -0.34
6 Brann 22 8 6 8 22 40 35 +5 23.13 -1.13
7 Valerenga 22 8 4 10 20 37 37 0 19.30 +0.70
8 Bryne 22 6 8 8 20 36 36 0 21.31 -1.31
9 Moss 22 7 6 9 20 28 39 -11 21.51 -1.51
10 Hamarkameratene 22 6 6 10 18 37 42 -5 19.62 -1.62
11 Mjondalen 22 7 4 11 18 17 32 -15 20.96 -2.96
12 Rosenborg 22 1 5 16 7 17 48 -31 16.39 -9.39

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lillestrom 1289 36 29.67 +6.33 97.6% 15 24 27 30 32 35 42
Bodo Glimt 1164 28 24.21 +3.79 86.3% 10 18 22 24 27 30 38
Viking 1149 23 23.34 -0.34 51.5% 9 17 21 23 26 30 37
Start 1136 25 21.19 +3.81 86.2% 7 15 19 21 24 28 35
Brann 1116 22 23.13 -1.13 43.7% 7 17 20 23 26 29 36
Molde 1112 27 23.37 +3.63 86.0% 9 17 21 23 26 30 38
Valerenga 1108 20 19.30 +0.70 62.2% 3 13 17 19 22 26 32
Bryne 1070 20 21.31 -1.31 42.0% 7 15 19 21 24 28 38
Moss 1056 20 21.51 -1.51 39.6% 8 15 19 21 24 28 35
Hamarkameratene 1027 18 19.62 -1.62 39.1% 5 13 17 20 22 26 34
Mjondalen 1018 18 20.96 -2.96 26.1% 5 15 18 21 24 27 35
Rosenborg 878 7 16.39 -9.39 0.6% 4 10 14 16 19 22 31

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BG BRA BRY HAM LIL MJO MOL MOS ROS STA VAL VIK
Bodo Glimt —
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
3.19
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
2.72
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
3.71
1-1-0
3.10
0-2-0
3.53
1-1-0
2.84
Brann
0-1-1
2.65
 —
0-1-1
2.90
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
1.64
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.79
0-1-1
3.16
2-0-0
3.45
1-0-1
3.15
0-1-1
3.31
1-1-0
2.72
Bryne
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.57
 —
0-2-0
3.20
1-1-0
1.43
0-0-2
3.08
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
3.03
0-1-1
2.41
Hamarkameratene
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-2
2.41
0-2-0
2.28
 —
0-0-2
1.48
1-1-0
2.46
1-0-1
2.22
1-1-0
2.60
2-0-0
3.25
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-1
2.33
Lillestrom
1-1-0
3.65
1-0-1
3.85
0-1-1
4.07
2-0-0
4.03
 —
2-0-0
3.60
1-1-0
3.68
2-0-0
3.79
1-1-0
4.31
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
3.45
Mjondalen
1-0-1
2.31
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.40
0-1-1
3.01
0-0-2
1.88
 —
0-0-2
2.59
0-0-2
2.78
1-1-0
3.39
0-1-1
2.74
2-0-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.25
Molde
0-0-2
2.75
2-0-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
1.81
2-0-0
2.88
 —
2-0-0
2.96
1-0-1
3.61
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
3.56
1-0-1
2.79
Moss
1-0-1
2.21
1-1-0
2.31
1-1-0
2.83
0-1-1
2.87
0-0-2
1.69
2-0-0
2.69
0-0-2
2.51
 —
1-1-0
3.35
0-2-0
2.78
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-2
3.00
Rosenborg
0-1-1
1.77
0-0-2
2.03
0-0-2
2.39
0-0-2
2.23
0-1-1
1.20
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
1.87
0-1-1
2.13
 —
0-0-2
2.33
0-0-2
2.04
0-1-1
1.58
Start
0-1-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.32
1-1-0
2.70
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-2
1.86
1-1-0
2.73
0-1-1
2.53
0-2-0
2.69
2-0-0
3.14
 —
0-1-1
3.26
2-0-0
2.48
Valerenga
0-2-0
1.95
1-1-0
2.16
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.83
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.28
2-0-0
3.44
1-1-0
2.22
 —
0-0-2
2.15
Viking
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.75
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
2.48
1-1-0
3.91
0-0-2
3.00
2-0-0
3.32
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.42 +5.3
Allowed 0.88 -7.0
Differential 0.90 +4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.06%9.09%5.30%0.76%3.41%0.38%25.00%
19.09%10.61%4.92%5.68%1.89%0.76%32.95%
25.30%4.92%7.58%2.27%1.14%0.76%21.97%
30.76%5.68%2.27%0.76%0.76%0.38%10.61%
43.41%1.89%1.14%0.76%——7.20%
5+0.38%0.76%0.76%0.38%——2.27%
Total25.00%32.95%21.97%10.61%7.20%2.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 1.91
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
118.18%18.18%—4.55%——40.91%
24.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
3—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%45.45%18.18%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.09 +0.41
SD 1.14 0.92 1.26
CV 0.76 0.84 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%————18.18%
1—18.18%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%27.27%
3—4.55%————4.55%
44.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total18.18%45.45%9.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.59 +0.23
SD 1.56 1.37 1.85
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
1—18.18%4.55%9.09%4.55%—36.36%
213.64%—18.18%4.55%——36.36%
3———————
4—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%36.36%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.18 1.05 1.60
CV 0.72 0.64 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%9.09%———27.27%
14.55%13.64%9.09%——4.55%31.82%
2——13.64%———13.64%
3——4.55%——4.55%9.09%
44.55%—4.55%4.55%——13.64%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total9.09%31.82%45.45%4.55%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.91 -0.23
SD 1.67 1.51 2.02
CV 0.99 0.79 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%———13.64%
122.73%9.09%4.55%———36.36%
24.55%9.09%————13.64%
34.55%13.64%————18.18%
418.18%—————18.18%
5+———————
Total59.09%31.82%9.09%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.50 +1.41
SD 1.38 0.67 1.65
CV 0.72 1.35 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%18.18%—9.09%4.55%54.55%
113.64%—9.09%———22.73%
24.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%22.73%31.82%—9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 1.45 -0.68
SD 1.02 1.44 1.99
CV 1.32 0.99 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
113.64%—4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
29.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
3—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%31.82%22.73%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.27 +0.14
SD 1.26 1.24 1.86
CV 0.89 0.98 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%——13.64%—18.18%
113.64%18.18%—9.09%——40.91%
29.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%—36.36%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%31.82%9.09%18.18%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.77 -0.50
SD 0.83 1.48 1.87
CV 0.65 0.83 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%—45.45%
1——4.55%27.27%——31.82%
24.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%9.09%18.18%36.36%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 2.18 -1.41
SD 0.81 1.59 1.40
CV 1.05 0.73 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
19.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
2—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
3—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total22.73%40.91%22.73%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.36 +0.32
SD 1.64 1.18 2.10
CV 0.98 0.86 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
19.09%13.64%4.55%—9.09%4.55%40.91%
2——4.55%———4.55%
34.55%4.55%——4.55%—13.64%
49.09%4.55%————13.64%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total22.73%36.36%18.18%—18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.68 +0.00
SD 1.55 1.55 2.43
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
14.55%9.09%9.09%9.09%——31.82%
24.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%——36.36%
3—4.55%4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%36.36%22.73%18.18%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.55 +0.32
SD 1.21 1.14 1.64
CV 0.65 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lillestrom 36 29.67 +6.33
2 Start 25 21.19 +3.81
3 Bodo Glimt 28 24.21 +3.79
4 Molde 27 23.37 +3.63
5 Valerenga 20 19.30 +0.70

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rosenborg 7 16.39 -9.39
2 Mjondalen 18 20.96 -2.96
3 Hamarkameratene 18 19.62 -1.62
4 Moss 20 21.51 -1.51
5 Bryne 20 21.31 -1.31

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 6 Apr 24 – May 22 1 in 99
2 Bodo Glimt 4 Aug 21 – Sep 18 1 in 21
3 Valerenga 3 Aug 22 – Sep 11 1 in 17
4 Start 3 Apr 24 – May 8 1 in 15
5 Molde 3 May 1 – May 16 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mjondalen 5 Jul 30 – Aug 28 1 in 53
2 Valerenga 5 May 19 – Jun 13 1 in 51
3 Rosenborg 5 Aug 28 – Oct 2 1 in 24
4 Moss 3 May 22 – Jun 5 1 in 12
5 Brann 2 Apr 24 – May 1 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 17 Apr 24 – Sep 10 1 in 61
2 Bodo Glimt 9 Jun 19 – Sep 18 1 in 35
3 Hamarkameratene 5 May 15 – Jun 5 1 in 16
4 Start 5 Jun 26 – Aug 21 1 in 15
5 Valerenga 5 Aug 8 – Sep 11 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rosenborg 17 May 22 – Oct 16 1 in 88
2 Hamarkameratene 10 Jun 12 – Sep 18 1 in 53
3 Start 7 May 15 – Jun 19 1 in 26
4 Bodo Glimt 5 May 9 – May 30 1 in 18
5 Valerenga 9 Apr 24 – Jun 13 1 in 16

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Lillestrom64.96%17.54%8.11%4.23%2.08%1.42%0.92%0.27%0.24%0.12%0.08%0.03%
Bodo Glimt8.87%17.45%15.32%12.89%11.11%9.71%7.44%5.92%4.63%3.45%2.17%1.04%
Molde5.77%12.21%13.07%12.59%11.75%10.52%9.05%7.84%6.42%5.40%3.68%1.70%
Start2.21%6.41%7.78%8.90%9.75%9.84%10.89%10.31%10.28%9.73%8.57%5.33%
Viking6.22%13.10%13.15%12.56%11.50%10.34%8.72%7.51%6.14%5.34%3.40%2.02%
Brann5.10%12.37%12.66%12.38%11.68%10.19%9.08%7.85%7.35%5.02%4.04%2.28%
Valerenga0.58%2.26%3.88%5.14%6.46%8.14%8.98%10.24%11.88%14.06%15.49%12.89%
Bryne1.87%5.53%7.60%8.91%10.08%10.06%10.83%11.08%10.19%10.14%8.59%5.12%
Moss2.01%5.67%7.72%8.91%9.04%10.26%10.52%10.80%10.85%9.93%8.86%5.43%
Hamarkameratene0.78%2.83%3.90%5.31%6.23%7.61%9.46%10.71%12.82%13.43%14.52%12.40%
Mjondalen1.58%4.28%6.28%7.04%8.70%9.36%10.11%11.43%11.70%10.89%11.04%7.59%
Rosenborg0.05%0.35%0.53%1.14%1.62%2.55%4.00%6.04%7.50%12.49%19.56%44.17%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.88%
Slight Edge
43.94%25.00%31.06%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 45.00 Elo pts.
163 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.38 goals
Neutral
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
65%
Lillestrom, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Tight Race
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.07 * Some Luck: 3.07 to 4.6 * Lucky: 4.6 to 6.14 * Wild Swing: 6.14 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.95 * Close: 1.95 to 2.93 * Off: 2.93 to 3.9 * Way Off: 3.9 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.95 points
Some Luck
03.8310
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.445
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.62%
Lillestrom
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.58%
Rosenborg
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.49
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.38
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.54
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.29
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.090
Well Within Noise
00.1450.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lillestrom 99.77% 0.23%
Bodo Glimt 93.34% 6.66%
Viking 89.24% 10.76%
Molde 89.22% 10.78%
Brann 88.66% 11.34%
Start 76.37% 23.63%
Bryne 76.15% 23.85%
Moss 75.78% 24.22%
Mjondalen 70.48% 29.52%
Hamarkameratene 59.65% 40.35%
Valerenga 57.56% 42.44%
Rosenborg 23.78% 76.22%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1977-04-24 Bodo Glimt L 0-1 1101 1113 44.3% 26.5% 29.2% -13.0 0
1977-04-24 @ Brann W 1-0 1113 1101 29.2% 26.5% 44.3% +13.0 2
1977-04-24 Molde W 1-0 1045 1106 37.6% 26.5% 35.9% +11.0 2
1977-04-24 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1106 1045 35.9% 26.5% 37.6% -11.1 0
1977-04-24 Moss L 1-2 1127 1133 45.1% 26.5% 28.5% -12.5 0
1977-04-24 @ Mjondalen W 2-1 1133 1127 28.5% 26.5% 45.1% +12.5 2
1977-04-24 Lillestrom L 0-4 1048 1126 35.2% 26.5% 38.4% -38.9 0
1977-04-24 @ Valerenga W 4-0 1126 1048 38.4% 26.5% 35.2% +38.9 2
1977-04-24 Start L 2-3 1090 1097 45.0% 26.5% 28.5% -11.8 0
1977-04-24 @ Viking W 3-2 1097 1090 28.5% 26.5% 45.0% +11.8 2
1977-05-01 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1126 1056 54.0% 26.1% 20.0% +13.2 4
1977-05-01 @ Bodo Glimt L 0-2 1056 1126 20.0% 26.1% 54.0% -13.2 2
1977-05-01 Brann W 4-2 1067 1088 43.2% 26.5% 30.3% +14.2 2
1977-05-01 @ Bryne L 2-4 1088 1067 30.3% 26.5% 43.2% -14.2 0
1977-05-01 Mjondalen W 4-0 1165 1114 51.9% 26.2% 21.9% +27.0 4
1977-05-01 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1114 1165 21.9% 26.2% 51.9% -27.0 0
1977-05-01 Valerenga W 4-1 1095 1009 55.6% 25.9% 18.4% +15.1 2
1977-05-01 @ Molde L 1-4 1009 1095 18.4% 25.9% 55.6% -15.1 0
1977-05-01 Viking L 0-4 1145 1079 53.6% 26.1% 20.3% -55.1 2
1977-05-01 @ Moss W 4-0 1079 1145 20.3% 26.1% 53.6% +55.1 2
1977-05-01 Rosenborg W 2-1 1109 1072 50.4% 26.3% 23.4% +7.5 4
1977-05-01 @ Start L 1-2 1072 1109 23.4% 26.3% 50.4% -7.5 0
1977-05-04 Bryne L 0-2 1064 1081 43.7% 26.5% 29.8% -24.3 0
1977-05-04 @ Rosenborg W 2-0 1081 1064 29.8% 26.5% 43.7% +24.3 4
1977-05-08 Molde L 0-1 1087 1110 42.9% 26.5% 30.7% -12.7 0
1977-05-08 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1110 1087 30.7% 26.5% 42.9% +12.7 4
1977-05-08 Bryne W 1-0 1117 1105 47.3% 26.4% 26.3% +8.7 6
1977-05-08 @ Start L 0-1 1105 1117 26.3% 26.4% 47.3% -8.7 4
1977-05-09 Brann L 0-2 1043 1074 41.8% 26.5% 31.7% -23.4 2
1977-05-09 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1074 1043 31.7% 26.5% 41.8% +23.4 2
1977-05-09 Moss L 1-3 1040 1090 39.2% 26.5% 34.3% -19.3 0
1977-05-09 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1090 1040 34.3% 26.5% 39.2% +19.3 4
1977-05-09 Bodo Glimt D 1-1 993 1139 26.5% 26.2% 47.3% +1.3 1
1977-05-09 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1139 993 47.3% 26.2% 26.5% -1.3 5
1977-05-09 Lillestrom L 1-2 1134 1192 38.0% 26.5% 35.5% -10.9 2
1977-05-09 @ Viking W 2-1 1192 1134 35.5% 26.5% 38.0% +10.9 6
1977-05-15 Mjondalen L 0-1 1138 1074 53.3% 26.1% 20.6% -15.3 5
1977-05-15 @ Bodo Glimt W 1-0 1074 1138 20.6% 26.1% 53.3% +15.3 2
1977-05-15 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1097 1019 54.7% 26.0% 19.3% -2.3 5
1977-05-15 @ Bryne D 1-1 1019 1097 19.3% 26.0% 54.7% +2.3 3
1977-05-15 Rosenborg W 1-0 1203 1021 63.7% 24.8% 11.5% +4.3 8
1977-05-15 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1021 1203 11.5% 24.8% 63.7% -4.3 0
1977-05-15 Start D 1-1 1110 1125 43.9% 26.5% 29.6% -0.9 5
1977-05-15 @ Moss D 1-1 1125 1110 29.6% 26.5% 43.9% +0.9 7
1977-05-16 Valerenga D 1-1 1097 995 57.1% 25.8% 17.1% -2.6 3
1977-05-16 @ Brann D 1-1 995 1097 17.1% 25.8% 57.1% +2.6 2
1977-05-16 Viking W 3-2 1123 1123 45.9% 26.4% 27.6% +8.1 6
1977-05-16 @ Molde L 2-3 1123 1123 27.6% 26.4% 45.9% -8.1 2
1977-05-19 Brann D 0-0 1090 1094 45.3% 26.5% 28.2% -1.2 3
1977-05-19 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1094 1090 28.2% 26.5% 45.3% +1.2 4
1977-05-19 Bryne W 1-0 1109 1094 47.7% 26.4% 25.9% +8.6 7
1977-05-19 @ Moss L 0-1 1094 1109 25.9% 26.4% 47.7% -8.6 5
1977-05-19 Molde W 2-0 1016 1131 30.3% 26.3% 43.4% +24.1 2
1977-05-19 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1131 1016 43.4% 26.3% 30.3% -24.1 6
1977-05-19 Lillestrom L 0-2 1126 1207 34.8% 26.5% 38.7% -20.4 7
1977-05-19 @ Start W 2-0 1207 1126 38.7% 26.5% 34.8% +20.4 10
1977-05-19 Hamarkameratene L 3-4 997 1021 42.8% 26.5% 30.8% -11.0 2
1977-05-19 @ Valerenga W 4-3 1021 997 30.8% 26.5% 42.8% +11.0 5
1977-05-19 Bodo Glimt D 2-2 1115 1123 44.9% 26.5% 28.7% -0.7 3
1977-05-19 @ Viking D 2-2 1123 1115 28.7% 26.5% 44.9% +0.7 6
1977-05-22 Rosenborg D 0-0 1123 1041 55.2% 25.9% 18.8% -2.6 7
1977-05-22 @ Bodo Glimt D 0-0 1041 1123 18.8% 25.9% 55.2% +2.7 3
1977-05-22 Valerenga W 4-1 1086 986 56.9% 25.8% 17.3% +14.4 7
1977-05-22 @ Bryne L 1-4 986 1086 17.3% 25.8% 56.9% -14.4 2
1977-05-22 Mjondalen W 4-0 1033 1089 38.4% 26.5% 35.1% +38.9 7
1977-05-22 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-4 1089 1033 35.1% 26.5% 38.4% -38.9 3
1977-05-22 Moss W 4-0 1228 1117 57.9% 25.7% 16.5% +21.3 12
1977-05-22 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1117 1228 16.5% 25.7% 57.9% -21.3 7
1977-05-22 Start D 0-0 1107 1106 46.1% 26.4% 27.5% -1.3 7
1977-05-22 @ Molde D 0-0 1106 1107 27.5% 26.4% 46.1% +1.3 8
1977-05-23 Viking D 1-1 1096 1114 43.5% 26.5% 30.0% -0.8 5
1977-05-23 @ Brann D 1-1 1114 1096 30.0% 26.5% 43.5% +0.8 4
1977-05-30 Bryne D 1-1 1249 1100 61.2% 25.2% 13.6% -3.2 13
1977-05-30 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1100 1249 13.6% 25.2% 61.2% +3.2 8
1977-05-30 Valerenga W 1-0 1050 972 54.7% 26.0% 19.3% +6.8 5
1977-05-30 @ Mjondalen L 0-1 972 1050 19.3% 26.0% 54.7% -6.8 2
1977-05-30 Molde L 2-3 1096 1106 44.6% 26.5% 28.9% -11.7 7
1977-05-30 @ Moss W 3-2 1106 1096 28.9% 26.5% 44.6% +11.7 9
1977-05-30 Brann L 1-3 1043 1095 39.0% 26.5% 34.5% -19.2 3
1977-05-30 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1095 1043 34.5% 26.5% 39.0% +19.2 7
1977-05-30 Bodo Glimt D 3-3 1107 1121 44.2% 26.5% 29.4% -0.6 9
1977-05-30 @ Start D 3-3 1121 1107 29.4% 26.5% 44.2% +0.6 8
1977-05-30 Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1115 1071 51.1% 26.2% 22.7% -1.8 5
1977-05-30 @ Viking D 1-1 1071 1115 22.7% 26.2% 51.1% +1.8 8
1977-06-05 Moss W 3-1 1121 1084 50.3% 26.3% 23.4% +13.0 10
1977-06-05 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-3 1084 1121 23.4% 26.3% 50.3% -13.0 7
1977-06-05 Mjondalen L 1-3 1103 1056 51.5% 26.2% 22.3% -24.2 8
1977-06-05 @ Bryne W 3-1 1056 1103 22.3% 26.2% 51.5% +24.2 7
1977-06-05 Rosenborg W 3-2 1073 1024 51.7% 26.2% 22.1% +6.8 10
1977-06-05 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-3 1024 1073 22.1% 26.2% 51.7% -6.8 3
1977-06-05 Lillestrom D 0-0 1118 1246 28.6% 26.3% 45.1% +1.1 10
1977-06-05 @ Molde D 0-0 1246 1118 45.1% 26.3% 28.6% -1.1 14
1977-06-06 Start W 4-1 1114 1107 46.8% 26.4% 26.8% +20.5 9
1977-06-06 @ Brann L 1-4 1107 1114 26.8% 26.4% 46.8% -20.5 9
1977-06-06 Viking L 0-1 965 1113 26.2% 26.1% 47.6% -8.7 2
1977-06-06 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1113 965 47.6% 26.1% 26.2% +8.7 7
1977-06-12 Bryne L 0-2 1134 1079 52.4% 26.2% 21.5% -28.4 10
1977-06-12 @ Bodo Glimt W 2-0 1079 1134 21.5% 26.2% 52.4% +28.4 10
1977-06-12 Lillestrom L 0-1 1080 1245 24.3% 26.0% 49.6% -8.2 10
1977-06-12 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1245 1080 49.6% 26.0% 24.3% +8.2 16
1977-06-12 Start D 0-0 1081 1086 45.2% 26.5% 28.4% -1.1 8
1977-06-12 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1086 1081 28.4% 26.5% 45.2% +1.1 10
1977-06-13 Molde L 1-2 1134 1119 47.8% 26.4% 25.8% -13.1 9
1977-06-13 @ Brann W 2-1 1119 1134 25.8% 26.4% 47.8% +13.1 12
1977-06-13 Moss L 0-2 956 1071 30.3% 26.3% 43.4% -18.3 2
1977-06-13 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1071 956 43.4% 26.3% 30.3% +18.3 9
1977-06-13 Rosenborg D 0-0 1122 1017 57.3% 25.7% 16.9% -3.0 8
1977-06-13 @ Viking D 0-0 1017 1122 16.9% 25.7% 57.3% +3.0 4
1977-06-18 Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1090 1072 48.1% 26.4% 25.5% -1.0 10
1977-06-18 @ Moss D 2-2 1072 1090 25.5% 26.4% 48.1% +1.0 11
1977-06-19 Brann W 3-1 1253 1121 59.7% 25.4% 14.8% +8.9 18
1977-06-19 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1121 1253 14.8% 25.4% 59.7% -8.9 9
1977-06-19 Bodo Glimt L 0-1 1132 1106 49.1% 26.3% 24.6% -14.2 12
1977-06-19 @ Molde W 1-0 1106 1132 24.6% 26.3% 49.1% +14.2 12
1977-06-19 Valerenga L 0-4 1087 938 61.2% 25.2% 13.6% -62.5 10
1977-06-19 @ Start W 4-0 938 1087 13.6% 25.2% 61.2% +62.5 4
1977-06-20 Mjondalen L 0-1 1020 1079 37.9% 26.5% 35.6% -11.5 4
1977-06-20 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1079 1020 35.6% 26.5% 37.9% +11.5 10
1977-06-20 Bryne W 2-1 1119 1108 47.3% 26.4% 26.3% +8.2 10
1977-06-20 @ Viking L 1-2 1108 1119 26.3% 26.4% 47.3% -8.2 10
1977-06-22 Lillestrom D 1-1 1120 1262 27.0% 26.2% 46.8% +1.2 13
1977-06-22 @ Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1262 1120 46.8% 26.2% 27.0% -1.2 19
1977-06-26 Molde L 1-3 1099 1118 43.5% 26.5% 30.0% -20.9 10
1977-06-26 @ Bryne W 3-1 1118 1099 30.0% 26.5% 43.5% +20.9 14
1977-06-26 Start L 0-1 1073 1025 51.6% 26.2% 22.2% -14.8 11
1977-06-26 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1025 1073 22.2% 26.2% 51.6% +14.9 12
1977-06-26 Viking W 3-1 1091 1127 41.2% 26.5% 32.3% +16.7 12
1977-06-26 @ Mjondalen L 1-3 1127 1091 32.3% 26.5% 41.2% -16.7 10
1977-06-26 Rosenborg W 3-1 1001 1009 44.9% 26.5% 28.7% +15.2 6
1977-06-26 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1009 1001 28.7% 26.5% 44.9% -15.2 4
1977-06-27 Moss D 1-1 1112 1089 48.8% 26.3% 24.9% -1.5 10
1977-06-27 @ Brann D 1-1 1089 1112 24.9% 26.3% 48.8% +1.5 11
1977-07-30 Mjondalen W 2-0 1090 1108 43.6% 26.5% 29.9% +18.2 13
1977-07-30 @ Moss L 0-2 1108 1090 29.9% 26.5% 43.6% -18.2 12
1977-07-31 Brann D 2-2 1121 1111 47.2% 26.4% 26.4% -1.0 14
1977-07-31 @ Bodo Glimt D 2-2 1111 1121 26.4% 26.4% 47.2% +1.0 11
1977-07-31 Rosenborg W 4-2 1078 993 55.5% 25.9% 18.6% +9.7 12
1977-07-31 @ Bryne L 2-4 993 1078 18.6% 25.9% 55.5% -9.6 4
1977-07-31 Viking W 2-1 1040 1110 36.3% 26.5% 37.2% +10.7 14
1977-07-31 @ Start L 1-2 1110 1040 37.2% 26.5% 36.3% -10.7 10
1977-08-01 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1139 1058 55.0% 26.0% 19.0% +6.7 16
1977-08-01 @ Molde L 0-1 1058 1139 19.0% 26.0% 55.0% -6.7 11
1977-08-03 Valerenga W 1-0 1260 1016 67.8% 23.8% 8.4% +3.2 21
1977-08-03 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1016 1260 8.4% 23.8% 67.8% -3.2 6
1977-08-07 Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1051 1120 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% +0.0 12
1977-08-07 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1120 1051 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% -0.0 15
1977-08-07 Lillestrom L 0-1 1090 1264 23.3% 25.9% 50.8% -7.9 12
1977-08-07 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1264 1090 50.8% 25.9% 23.3% +7.9 23
1977-08-08 Bryne D 1-1 1112 1088 48.8% 26.3% 24.8% -1.5 12
1977-08-08 @ Brann D 1-1 1088 1112 24.8% 26.3% 48.8% +1.5 13
1977-08-08 Start L 1-3 984 1050 36.9% 26.5% 36.6% -18.4 4
1977-08-08 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1050 984 36.6% 26.5% 36.9% +18.4 16
1977-08-08 Molde W 4-0 1013 1145 28.1% 26.2% 45.7% +47.7 8
1977-08-08 @ Valerenga L 0-4 1145 1013 45.7% 26.2% 28.1% -47.7 16
1977-08-08 Moss W 3-2 1099 1108 44.8% 26.5% 28.8% +8.4 12
1977-08-08 @ Viking L 2-3 1108 1099 28.8% 26.5% 44.8% -8.4 13
1977-08-13 Rosenborg D 2-2 1100 965 60.0% 25.4% 14.6% -2.3 14
1977-08-13 @ Moss D 2-2 965 1100 14.6% 25.4% 60.0% +2.3 5
1977-08-14 Valerenga D 1-1 1120 1060 52.9% 26.1% 21.0% -2.0 16
1977-08-14 @ Bodo Glimt D 1-1 1060 1120 21.0% 26.1% 52.9% +2.0 9
1977-08-14 Start D 2-2 1089 1069 48.4% 26.4% 25.2% -1.1 14
1977-08-14 @ Bryne D 2-2 1069 1089 25.2% 26.4% 48.4% +1.1 17
1977-08-14 Viking W 3-1 1272 1108 62.3% 25.0% 12.6% +7.7 25
1977-08-14 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1108 1272 12.6% 25.0% 62.3% -7.7 12
1977-08-14 Mjondalen W 2-0 1098 1082 47.9% 26.4% 25.8% +16.2 18
1977-08-14 @ Molde L 0-2 1082 1098 25.8% 26.4% 47.9% -16.2 12
1977-08-15 Hamarkameratene W 6-3 1110 1051 52.8% 26.1% 21.1% +13.5 14
1977-08-15 @ Brann L 3-6 1051 1110 21.1% 26.1% 52.8% -13.5 12
1977-08-21 Bryne D 2-2 1038 1088 39.1% 26.5% 34.4% -0.2 13
1977-08-21 @ Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1088 1038 34.4% 26.5% 39.1% +0.2 15
1977-08-21 Bodo Glimt L 1-2 1065 1118 38.8% 26.5% 34.7% -11.1 12
1977-08-21 @ Mjondalen W 2-1 1118 1065 34.7% 26.5% 38.8% +11.0 18
1977-08-21 Moss D 1-1 1070 1098 42.2% 26.5% 31.2% -0.7 18
1977-08-21 @ Start D 1-1 1098 1070 31.2% 26.5% 42.2% +0.7 15
1977-08-22 Lillestrom D 0-0 968 1279 12.1% 24.2% 63.8% +3.9 6
1977-08-22 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1279 968 63.8% 24.2% 12.1% -3.9 26
1977-08-22 Brann W 5-2 1062 1124 37.6% 26.5% 35.9% +22.1 11
1977-08-22 @ Valerenga L 2-5 1124 1062 35.9% 26.5% 37.6% -22.1 14
1977-08-22 Molde W 2-1 1100 1114 44.1% 26.5% 29.4% +9.0 14
1977-08-22 @ Viking L 1-2 1114 1100 29.4% 26.5% 44.1% -9.0 18
1977-08-28 Viking W 1-0 1129 1109 48.4% 26.4% 25.3% +8.5 20
1977-08-28 @ Bodo Glimt L 0-1 1109 1129 25.3% 26.4% 48.4% -8.5 14
1977-08-28 Mjondalen W 2-0 1102 1054 51.5% 26.2% 22.3% +14.4 16
1977-08-28 @ Brann L 0-2 1054 1102 22.3% 26.2% 51.5% -14.4 12
1977-08-28 Moss D 1-1 1089 1098 44.6% 26.5% 28.9% -1.0 16
1977-08-28 @ Bryne D 1-1 1098 1089 28.9% 26.5% 44.6% +0.9 16
1977-08-28 Valerenga L 0-1 1038 1084 39.6% 26.5% 33.8% -11.9 13
1977-08-28 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1084 1038 33.8% 26.5% 39.6% +11.9 13
1977-08-28 Start W 1-0 1275 1069 65.4% 24.4% 10.2% +3.9 28
1977-08-28 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1069 1275 10.2% 24.4% 65.4% -3.9 18
1977-08-28 Rosenborg W 2-0 1105 972 59.9% 25.4% 14.7% +10.2 20
1977-08-28 @ Molde L 0-2 972 1105 14.7% 25.4% 59.9% -10.1 6
1977-09-10 Lillestrom L 0-4 1099 1279 22.7% 25.9% 51.4% -27.7 16
1977-09-10 @ Moss W 4-0 1279 1099 51.4% 25.9% 22.7% +27.7 30
1977-09-11 Hamarkameratene D 2-2 1040 1026 47.7% 26.4% 25.9% -1.0 13
1977-09-11 @ Mjondalen D 2-2 1026 1040 25.9% 26.4% 47.7% +1.0 14
1977-09-11 Molde L 1-2 1065 1115 39.3% 26.5% 34.2% -11.1 18
1977-09-11 @ Start W 2-1 1115 1065 34.2% 26.5% 39.3% +11.1 22
1977-09-11 Bryne W 4-1 1096 1088 47.0% 26.4% 26.6% +20.4 15
1977-09-11 @ Valerenga L 1-4 1088 1096 26.6% 26.4% 47.0% -20.4 16
1977-09-11 Brann L 3-4 1101 1116 43.9% 26.5% 29.6% -11.3 14
1977-09-11 @ Viking W 4-3 1116 1101 29.6% 26.5% 43.9% +11.3 18
1977-09-12 Bodo Glimt L 1-3 961 1138 23.1% 25.9% 51.0% -12.8 6
1977-09-12 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1138 961 51.0% 25.9% 23.1% +12.8 22
1977-09-18 Start W 1-0 1151 1054 56.6% 25.8% 17.6% +6.3 24
1977-09-18 @ Bodo Glimt L 0-1 1054 1151 17.6% 25.8% 56.6% -6.3 18
1977-09-18 Lillestrom W 2-0 1067 1307 17.1% 25.2% 57.6% +30.9 18
1977-09-18 @ Bryne L 0-2 1307 1067 57.6% 25.2% 17.1% -30.9 30
1977-09-18 Viking L 1-2 1027 1089 37.4% 26.5% 36.1% -10.7 14
1977-09-18 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1089 1027 36.1% 26.5% 37.4% +10.7 16
1977-09-18 Moss W 3-1 1126 1072 52.3% 26.2% 21.5% +12.2 24
1977-09-18 @ Molde L 1-3 1072 1126 21.5% 26.2% 52.3% -12.2 16
1977-09-19 Rosenborg W 4-0 1128 949 63.5% 24.8% 11.7% +15.7 20
1977-09-19 @ Brann L 0-4 949 1128 11.7% 24.8% 63.5% -15.7 6
1977-09-19 Mjondalen L 1-2 1117 1039 54.8% 26.0% 19.3% -14.8 15
1977-09-19 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1039 1117 19.3% 26.0% 54.8% +14.8 15
1977-09-24 Bodo Glimt W 1-0 1060 1157 32.6% 26.4% 41.0% +12.2 18
1977-09-24 @ Moss L 0-1 1157 1060 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% -12.2 24
1977-09-25 Molde W 3-0 1276 1138 60.2% 25.4% 14.4% +14.5 32
1977-09-25 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1138 1276 14.4% 25.4% 60.2% -14.5 24
1977-09-25 Bryne W 2-0 1054 1098 40.0% 26.5% 33.5% +19.8 17
1977-09-25 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1098 1054 33.5% 26.5% 40.0% -19.8 18
1977-09-25 Brann W 3-1 1048 1143 32.9% 26.4% 40.7% +19.8 20
1977-09-25 @ Start L 1-3 1143 1048 40.7% 26.4% 32.9% -19.8 20
1977-09-26 Hamarkameratene L 2-6 933 1016 34.6% 26.5% 39.0% -27.2 6
1977-09-26 @ Rosenborg W 6-2 1016 933 39.0% 26.5% 34.6% +27.2 16
1977-09-26 Valerenga W 5-1 1100 1102 45.7% 26.4% 27.9% +27.3 18
1977-09-26 @ Viking L 1-5 1102 1100 27.9% 26.4% 45.7% -27.3 15
1977-10-02 Bodo Glimt L 2-3 1078 1145 36.9% 26.5% 36.6% -10.1 18
1977-10-02 @ Bryne W 3-2 1145 1078 36.6% 26.5% 36.9% +10.1 26
1977-10-02 Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1290 1043 68.0% 23.7% 8.3% +3.0 34
1977-10-02 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1043 1290 8.3% 23.7% 68.0% -3.0 16
1977-10-02 Brann W 1-0 1124 1123 46.0% 26.4% 27.6% +9.1 26
1977-10-02 @ Molde L 0-1 1123 1124 27.6% 26.4% 46.0% -9.1 20
1977-10-02 Valerenga L 0-1 1072 1075 45.5% 26.5% 28.0% -13.3 18
1977-10-02 @ Moss W 1-0 1075 1072 28.0% 26.5% 45.5% +13.3 17
1977-10-02 Viking L 1-3 906 1127 18.6% 25.4% 55.9% -10.7 6
1977-10-02 @ Rosenborg W 3-1 1127 906 55.9% 25.4% 18.6% +10.7 20
1977-10-02 Mjondalen W 5-0 1068 1074 45.1% 26.5% 28.4% +40.9 22
1977-10-02 @ Start L 0-5 1074 1068 28.4% 26.5% 45.1% -40.9 17
1977-10-08 Molde W 4-1 1155 1133 48.6% 26.4% 25.1% +19.4 28
1977-10-08 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-4 1133 1155 25.1% 26.4% 48.6% -19.4 26
1977-10-09 Lillestrom W 2-1 1114 1293 22.8% 25.9% 51.3% +13.9 22
1977-10-09 @ Brann L 1-2 1293 1114 51.3% 25.9% 22.8% -13.9 34
1977-10-09 Viking D 2-2 1068 1138 36.4% 26.5% 37.1% +0.0 19
1977-10-09 @ Bryne D 2-2 1138 1068 37.1% 26.5% 36.4% -0.0 21
1977-10-09 Moss W 4-2 1040 1058 43.5% 26.5% 30.0% +14.1 18
1977-10-09 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-4 1058 1040 30.0% 26.5% 43.5% -14.1 18
1977-10-09 Rosenborg D 0-0 1033 895 60.2% 25.4% 14.4% -3.4 18
1977-10-09 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 895 1033 14.4% 25.4% 60.2% +3.5 7
1977-10-09 Start D 2-2 1088 1109 43.2% 26.5% 30.3% -0.6 18
1977-10-09 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1109 1088 30.3% 26.5% 43.2% +0.6 23
1977-10-16 Bodo Glimt W 3-1 1279 1174 57.4% 25.7% 16.9% +9.9 36
1977-10-16 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1174 1279 16.9% 25.7% 57.4% -9.9 28
1977-10-16 Bryne D 2-2 1113 1068 51.3% 26.2% 22.5% -1.4 27
1977-10-16 @ Molde D 2-2 1068 1113 22.5% 26.2% 51.3% +1.4 20
1977-10-16 Brann W 1-0 1044 1128 34.4% 26.5% 39.1% +11.8 20
1977-10-16 @ Moss L 0-1 1128 1044 39.1% 26.5% 34.4% -11.8 22
1977-10-16 Valerenga L 0-3 898 1087 21.8% 25.8% 52.4% -20.5 7
1977-10-16 @ Rosenborg W 3-0 1087 898 52.4% 25.8% 21.8% +20.4 20
1977-10-16 Hamarkameratene W 6-1 1109 1054 52.3% 26.2% 21.5% +27.2 25
1977-10-16 @ Start L 1-6 1054 1109 21.5% 26.2% 52.3% -27.2 18
1977-10-16 Mjondalen W 2-0 1138 1029 57.7% 25.7% 16.6% +11.3 23
1977-10-16 @ Viking L 0-2 1029 1138 16.6% 25.7% 57.7% -11.3 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1977-06-19 13.57% Valerenga 938 4 @ Start 1087 0
2 1977-09-18 17.13% @ Bryne 1067 2 Lillestrom 1307 0
3 1977-09-19 19.26% Mjondalen 1039 2 @ Valerenga 1117 1
4 1977-05-01 20.30% Viking 1079 4 @ Moss 1145 0
5 1977-05-15 20.64% Mjondalen 1074 1 @ Bodo Glimt 1138 0
6 1977-06-12 21.48% Bryne 1079 2 @ Bodo Glimt 1134 0
7 1977-06-26 22.20% Start 1025 1 @ Hamarkameratene 1073 0
8 1977-06-05 22.32% Mjondalen 1056 3 @ Bryne 1103 1
9 1977-10-09 22.79% @ Brann 1114 2 Lillestrom 1293 1
10 1977-06-19 24.60% Bodo Glimt 1106 1 @ Molde 1132 0
11 1977-06-13 25.80% Molde 1119 2 @ Brann 1134 1
12 1977-10-02 28.04% Valerenga 1075 1 @ Moss 1072 0
13 1977-08-08 28.06% @ Valerenga 1013 4 Molde 1145 0
14 1977-04-24 28.48% Moss 1133 2 @ Mjondalen 1127 1
15 1977-04-24 28.55% Start 1097 3 @ Viking 1090 2
16 1977-05-30 28.89% Molde 1106 3 @ Moss 1096 2
17 1977-04-24 29.19% Bodo Glimt 1113 1 @ Brann 1101 0
18 1977-09-11 29.64% Brann 1116 4 @ Viking 1101 3
19 1977-05-04 29.79% Bryne 1081 2 @ Rosenborg 1064 0
20 1977-06-26 30.00% Molde 1118 3 @ Bryne 1099 1
21 1977-05-19 30.31% @ Rosenborg 1016 2 Molde 1131 0
22 1977-05-08 30.66% Molde 1110 1 @ Mjondalen 1087 0
23 1977-05-19 30.75% Hamarkameratene 1021 4 @ Valerenga 997 3
24 1977-05-09 31.66% Brann 1074 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1043 0
25 1977-09-24 32.61% @ Moss 1060 1 Bodo Glimt 1157 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1977-06-19 62.49 Valerenga 4 938 13.57% @ Start 0 1087 61.20% 25.23%
2 1977-05-01 55.06 Viking 4 1079 20.30% @ Moss 0 1145 53.62% 26.07%
3 1977-08-08 47.68 @ Valerenga 4 1013 28.06% Molde 0 1145 45.69% 26.24%
4 1977-10-02 40.87 @ Start 5 1068 45.15% Mjondalen 0 1074 28.40% 26.45%
5 1977-04-24 38.94 Lillestrom 4 1126 38.35% @ Valerenga 0 1048 35.18% 26.47%
6 1977-05-22 38.90 @ Hamarkameratene 4 1033 38.39% Mjondalen 0 1089 35.11% 26.50%
7 1977-09-18 30.91 @ Bryne 2 1067 17.13% Lillestrom 0 1307 57.65% 25.23%
8 1977-06-12 28.39 Bryne 2 1079 21.48% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1134 52.36% 26.16%
9 1977-09-10 27.66 Lillestrom 4 1279 51.41% @ Moss 0 1099 22.71% 25.88%
10 1977-09-26 27.26 @ Viking 5 1100 45.66% Valerenga 1 1102 27.90% 26.44%
11 1977-09-26 27.18 Hamarkameratene 6 1016 38.97% @ Rosenborg 2 933 34.57% 26.46%
12 1977-10-16 27.16 @ Start 6 1109 52.34% Hamarkameratene 1 1054 21.49% 26.16%
13 1977-05-01 27.01 @ Lillestrom 4 1165 51.91% Mjondalen 0 1114 21.90% 26.19%
14 1977-05-04 24.28 Bryne 2 1081 29.79% @ Rosenborg 0 1064 43.73% 26.48%
15 1977-06-05 24.20 Mjondalen 3 1056 22.32% @ Bryne 1 1103 51.46% 26.21%
16 1977-05-19 24.07 @ Rosenborg 2 1016 30.31% Molde 0 1131 43.35% 26.34%
17 1977-05-09 23.42 Brann 2 1074 31.66% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1043 41.84% 26.50%
18 1977-08-22 22.10 @ Valerenga 5 1062 37.60% Brann 2 1124 35.90% 26.50%
19 1977-05-22 21.28 @ Lillestrom 4 1228 57.86% Moss 0 1117 16.46% 25.68%
20 1977-06-26 20.94 Molde 3 1118 30.00% @ Bryne 1 1099 43.52% 26.48%
21 1977-06-06 20.46 @ Brann 4 1114 46.80% Start 1 1107 26.78% 26.41%
22 1977-10-16 20.45 Valerenga 3 1087 52.45% @ Rosenborg 0 898 21.76% 25.80%
23 1977-05-19 20.38 Lillestrom 2 1207 38.69% @ Start 0 1126 34.84% 26.46%
24 1977-09-11 20.36 @ Valerenga 4 1096 46.98% Bryne 1 1088 26.61% 26.41%
25 1977-09-25 19.83 @ Start 3 1048 32.87% Brann 1 1143 40.71% 26.42%