1976 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Lillestrom

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Mjondalen

6.07 points above expected

30 points · 23.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vard

6.74 points below expected

13 points · 19.74 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Lillestrom	22	13	5	4	31	39	19	+20	25.37	+5.63
2	Mjondalen	22	13	4	5	30	40	23	+17	23.93	+6.07
3	Brann	22	11	6	5	28	38	29	+9	23.86	+4.14
4	Start	22	8	8	6	24	23	19	+4	22.19	+1.81
5	Viking	22	6	10	6	22	24	21	+3	24.67	-2.67
6	Molde	22	9	3	10	21	34	29	+5	20.60	+0.40
7	Hamarkameratene	22	7	7	8	21	31	29	+2	22.07	-1.07
8	Rosenborg	22	7	7	8	21	24	29	-5	21.54	-0.54
9	Bryne	22	6	7	9	19	30	35	-5	20.79	-1.79
10	Stromsgodset	22	6	7	9	19	31	43	-12	20.46	-1.46
11	Fredrikstad	22	5	5	12	15	27	50	-23	18.79	-3.79
12	Vard	22	2	9	11	13	21	36	-15	19.74	-6.74

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Mjondalen	1286	30	23.93	+6.07	96.6%	7	18	21	24	26	30	37
Lillestrom	1281	31	25.37	+5.63	96.0%	13	20	23	25	28	31	39
Brann	1237	28	23.86	+4.14	90.2%	9	18	21	24	26	30	38
Molde	1230	21	20.60	+0.40	60.0%	7	15	18	21	23	27	36
Start	1220	24	22.19	+1.81	74.0%	8	16	20	22	25	28	35
Viking	1202	22	24.67	-2.67	27.2%	12	19	22	25	27	31	37
Rosenborg	1171	21	21.54	-0.54	50.2%	9	16	19	21	24	28	35
Bryne	1156	19	20.79	-1.79	36.7%	6	15	18	21	23	27	36
Hamarkameratene	1110	21	22.07	-1.07	44.1%	8	16	20	22	25	28	35
Vard	1105	13	19.74	-6.74	3.9%	6	14	17	20	22	26	32
Stromsgodset	1105	19	20.46	-1.46	39.8%	7	15	18	20	23	26	33
Fredrikstad	1060	15	18.79	-3.79	18.0%	6	13	16	19	21	25	32

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	BRY	FRE	HAM	LIL	MJO	MOL	ROS	STA	STR	VAR	VIK
Brann	—	0-2-0 3.06	1-1-0 3.15	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.53	0-1-1 2.59	2-0-0 3.06	1-0-1 3.27	1-0-1 2.82	2-0-0 2.97	1-1-0 3.30	1-1-0 2.63
Bryne	0-2-0 2.35	—	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.59	1-0-1 1.90	1-0-1 2.32	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.63	0-2-0 2.50	1-0-1 2.70	0-2-0 2.94	0-1-1 2.29
Fredrikstad	0-1-1 2.23	1-0-1 2.48	—	0-1-1 2.47	0-0-2 1.81	0-0-2 2.09	1-0-1 2.41	0-2-0 2.29	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 2.52	1-1-0 2.43	1-0-1 1.72
Hamarkameratene	1-0-1 2.31	1-0-1 2.79	1-1-0 2.94	—	0-1-1 2.36	0-0-2 2.53	1-1-0 2.99	0-1-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.67	0-1-1 2.91	1-1-0 3.02	1-1-0 2.39
Lillestrom	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 3.49	2-0-0 3.61	1-1-0 3.03	—	2-0-0 2.89	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 3.25	0-2-0 3.19	2-0-0 3.23	1-1-0 3.29	0-1-1 2.83
Mjondalen	1-1-0 2.80	1-0-1 3.06	2-0-0 3.29	2-0-0 2.85	0-0-2 2.49	—	1-0-1 3.26	1-1-0 3.13	1-0-1 2.95	1-1-0 3.26	2-0-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.57
Molde	0-0-2 2.33	1-0-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.97	0-1-1 2.39	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 2.13	—	1-0-1 2.38	1-0-1 2.43	1-1-0 2.85	1-1-0 2.91	2-0-0 2.18
Rosenborg	1-0-1 2.11	2-0-0 2.75	0-2-0 3.10	1-1-0 2.57	1-0-1 2.15	0-1-1 2.26	1-0-1 3.01	—	0-1-1 2.79	0-1-1 2.91	1-0-1 3.03	0-1-1 2.26
Start	1-0-1 2.56	0-2-0 2.88	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.71	0-2-0 2.21	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.95	1-1-0 2.59	—	1-0-1 2.95	1-1-0 3.03	0-2-0 2.47
Stromsgodset	0-0-2 2.42	1-0-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.49	0-0-2 2.15	0-1-1 2.13	0-1-1 2.53	1-1-0 2.47	1-0-1 2.43	—	0-1-1 2.94	0-2-0 2.30
Vard	0-1-1 2.09	0-2-0 2.44	0-1-1 2.96	0-1-1 2.35	0-1-1 2.12	0-0-2 2.52	0-1-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.35	0-1-1 2.35	1-1-0 2.44	—	0-0-2 2.09
Viking	0-1-1 2.75	1-1-0 3.10	1-0-1 3.68	0-1-1 3.00	1-1-0 2.55	0-1-1 2.82	0-0-2 3.21	1-1-0 3.12	0-2-0 2.91	0-2-0 3.10	2-0-0 3.29	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.55	+6.2
Allowed	0.54	-4.3
Differential	0.88	+4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	7.58%	7.58%	1.89%	1.14%	0.76%	27.27%
1	7.58%	15.91%	4.55%	5.30%	1.52%	1.14%	35.98%
2	7.58%	4.55%	4.55%	1.89%	0.76%	0.38%	19.70%
3	1.89%	5.30%	1.89%	0.76%	0.38%	0.38%	10.61%
4	1.14%	1.52%	0.76%	0.38%	—	—	3.79%
5+	0.76%	1.14%	0.38%	0.38%	—	—	2.65%
Total	27.27%	35.98%	19.70%	10.61%	3.79%	2.65%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.37	1.37	+0.00
SD	1.29	1.29	1.87
CV	0.94	0.94	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	31.82%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.73	1.32	+0.41
SD	1.28	0.95	1.62
CV	0.74	0.72	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
1	4.55%	27.27%	—	9.09%	—	—	40.91%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	40.91%	31.82%	9.09%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.59	-0.23
SD	1.56	1.30	2.33
CV	1.14	0.82	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	22.73%	18.18%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	2.27	-1.05
SD	1.11	1.61	1.99
CV	0.90	0.71	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	27.27%	—	13.64%	—	—	50.00%
2	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	36.36%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.32	+0.09
SD	1.74	1.17	2.35
CV	1.23	0.89	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
1	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.45%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	0.86	+0.91
SD	1.23	0.99	1.57
CV	0.69	1.15	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	40.91%	22.73%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	1.05	+0.77
SD	1.22	1.05	1.48
CV	0.67	1.00	—
Max	5	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	36.36%	22.73%	4.55%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.32	+0.23
SD	1.50	1.21	2.05
CV	0.97	0.92	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
1	9.09%	22.73%	—	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	59.09%	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	1.32	-0.23
SD	1.11	1.21	1.51
CV	1.02	0.92	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	22.73%	9.09%	—	—	—	40.91%
2	18.18%	—	—	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.91%	36.36%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	0.86	+0.18
SD	0.95	0.89	1.37
CV	0.91	1.03	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
1	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	—	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.95	-0.55
SD	1.40	1.76	2.34
CV	1.00	0.90	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	36.36%
1	—	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	45.45%
2	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
3	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	31.82%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.95	1.64	-0.68
SD	1.00	1.62	1.62
CV	1.05	0.99	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	54.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	0.95	+0.14
SD	1.06	0.79	1.17
CV	0.98	0.82	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Mjondalen	30	23.93	+6.07
2	Lillestrom	31	25.37	+5.63
3	Brann	28	23.86	+4.14
4	Start	24	22.19	+1.81
5	Molde	21	20.60	+0.40

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Vard	13	19.74	-6.74
2	Fredrikstad	15	18.79	-3.79
3	Viking	22	24.67	-2.67
4	Bryne	19	20.79	-1.79
5	Stromsgodset	19	20.46	-1.46

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brann	6	Aug 9 – Sep 26	1 in 578
2	Lillestrom	5	May 24 – Jun 10	1 in 190
3	Molde	4	Sep 26 – Oct 17	1 in 154
4	Hamarkameratene	3	Jun 7 – Jun 20	1 in 63
5	Start	3	Sep 19 – Oct 3	1 in 34

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hamarkameratene	5	Sep 19 – Oct 17	1 in 317
2	Fredrikstad	5	May 27 – Jun 21	1 in 135
3	Molde	4	Apr 25 – May 15	1 in 66
4	Viking	2	Oct 3 – Oct 10	1 in 27
5	Lillestrom	2	Sep 19 – Sep 26	1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brann	12	Jun 10 – Oct 3	1 in 120
2	Lillestrom	10	Apr 25 – Jun 20	1 in 44
3	Stromsgodset	6	May 30 – Jul 26	1 in 23
4	Mjondalen	9	May 27 – Aug 8	1 in 23
5	Hamarkameratene	6	Jun 7 – Aug 1	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vard	16	Apr 25 – Aug 30	1 in 210
2	Hamarkameratene	10	Aug 1 – Oct 17	1 in 100
3	Fredrikstad	12	May 27 – Sep 12	1 in 68
4	Rosenborg	6	Aug 2 – Sep 19	1 in 16
5	Start	6	May 30 – Jul 26	1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Lillestrom	27.33%	18.28%	14.25%	10.93%	8.27%	6.16%	4.78%	3.55%	2.81%	1.89%	1.22%	0.53%
Mjondalen	16.34%	14.77%	12.32%	11.46%	9.63%	8.71%	7.46%	5.96%	4.81%	3.79%	2.76%	1.99%
Brann	13.74%	13.50%	13.72%	11.66%	10.59%	8.67%	7.86%	5.82%	5.18%	4.46%	3.00%	1.80%
Start	6.11%	7.99%	9.05%	9.88%	10.28%	10.31%	9.58%	9.23%	8.90%	7.40%	6.62%	4.65%
Viking	17.72%	15.67%	13.40%	12.14%	9.92%	8.12%	6.54%	5.82%	4.20%	3.00%	2.26%	1.21%
Molde	2.73%	4.71%	5.80%	6.73%	7.95%	8.87%	9.60%	10.50%	11.04%	11.07%	10.68%	10.32%
Hamarkameratene	5.47%	7.70%	8.94%	9.48%	9.50%	10.27%	9.49%	9.89%	8.89%	8.17%	6.98%	5.22%
Rosenborg	3.85%	5.71%	7.15%	8.07%	8.82%	9.64%	9.99%	10.58%	10.71%	9.56%	9.01%	6.91%
Bryne	2.63%	4.22%	5.55%	6.83%	8.03%	8.75%	9.79%	10.35%	11.03%	11.36%	11.13%	10.33%
Stromsgodset	1.88%	3.63%	4.41%	5.70%	7.25%	8.05%	9.94%	10.27%	11.36%	11.94%	13.08%	12.49%
Fredrikstad	0.87%	1.33%	2.01%	2.81%	3.73%	5.28%	6.78%	8.73%	10.00%	13.80%	17.63%	27.03%
Vard	1.33%	2.49%	3.40%	4.31%	6.03%	7.17%	8.19%	9.30%	11.07%	13.56%	15.63%	17.52%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+21.97%

Clear Edge

46.21%29.55%24.24%

Elo Value

Home Edge

163 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

077.60500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.55 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.47+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

6.2

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

27%

Lillestrom, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.05/gm

Photo Finish

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.91 * Some Luck: 2.91 to 4.36 * Lucky: 4.36 to 5.82 * Wild Swing: 5.82 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.21 * Close: 2.21 to 3.31 * Off: 3.31 to 4.41 * Way Off: 4.41 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.68 points

Some Luck

03.649

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.17

Pinpoint

02.766

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

96.58%

Mjondalen

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.93%

Vard

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.18

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

67%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

79%

Clear Edge

50%81%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Very Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Occasional

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.03

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.09

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

25%

As Expected

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

As Expected

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.84

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.63

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.080

Well Within Noise

00.1350.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Lillestrom	96.36%	3.64%
Viking	93.53%	6.47%
Mjondalen	91.46%	8.54%
Brann	90.74%	9.26%
Start	81.33%	18.67%
Hamarkameratene	79.63%	20.37%
Rosenborg	74.52%	25.48%
Molde	67.93%	32.07%
Bryne	67.18%	32.82%
Stromsgodset	62.49%	37.51%
Vard	53.29%	46.71%
Fredrikstad	41.54%	58.46%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1976-04-25	Rosenborg	L 0-1	1189	1190	48.9%	31.0%	20.1%	-13.2	0
1976-04-25	@ Bryne	W 1-0	1190	1189	20.1%	31.0%	48.9%	+13.2	2
1976-04-25	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1156	1133	51.4%	30.7%	17.8%	-2.0	1
1976-04-25	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1133	1156	17.8%	30.7%	51.4%	+2.0	1
1976-04-25	Lillestrom	L 1-2	1162	1175	47.6%	31.1%	21.3%	-12.1	0
1976-04-25	@ Molde	W 2-1	1175	1162	21.3%	31.1%	47.6%	+12.1	2
1976-04-25	Brann	W 2-0	1189	1200	47.9%	31.1%	21.1%	+13.3	2
1976-04-25	@ Start	L 0-2	1200	1189	21.1%	31.1%	47.9%	-13.3	0
1976-04-25	Viking	D 2-2	1183	1230	43.7%	31.3%	25.0%	-0.8	1
1976-04-25	@ Stromsgodset	D 2-2	1230	1183	25.0%	31.3%	43.7%	+0.8	1
1976-04-25	Mjondalen	L 0-2	1189	1166	51.5%	30.7%	17.8%	-26.0	0
1976-04-25	@ Vard	W 2-0	1166	1189	17.8%	30.7%	51.5%	+26.0	2
1976-05-02	Molde	W 4-2	1135	1150	47.5%	31.1%	21.5%	+10.4	3
1976-05-02	@ Hamarkameratene	L 2-4	1150	1135	21.5%	31.1%	47.5%	-10.4	0
1976-05-02	Stromsgodset	W 4-0	1187	1182	49.5%	30.9%	19.6%	+23.8	4
1976-05-02	@ Lillestrom	L 0-4	1182	1187	19.6%	30.9%	49.5%	-23.8	1
1976-05-02	Bryne	L 1-2	1192	1176	50.8%	30.8%	18.4%	-12.8	2
1976-05-02	@ Mjondalen	W 2-1	1176	1192	18.4%	30.8%	50.8%	+12.8	2
1976-05-02	Start	D 0-0	1204	1202	49.2%	30.9%	19.8%	-1.9	3
1976-05-02	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	1202	1204	19.8%	30.9%	49.2%	+1.9	3
1976-05-03	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1186	1154	52.4%	30.6%	17.0%	+11.2	2
1976-05-03	@ Brann	L 0-2	1154	1186	17.0%	30.6%	52.4%	-11.2	1
1976-05-03	Vard	W 1-0	1230	1163	55.7%	30.0%	14.3%	+5.2	3
1976-05-03	@ Viking	L 0-1	1163	1230	14.3%	30.0%	55.7%	-5.2	0
1976-05-09	Rosenborg	D 1-1	1143	1202	42.1%	31.3%	26.6%	-0.8	2
1976-05-09	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1202	1143	26.6%	31.3%	42.1%	+0.8	4
1976-05-09	Brann	L 2-3	1139	1197	42.2%	31.3%	26.5%	-10.4	0
1976-05-09	@ Molde	W 3-2	1197	1139	26.5%	31.3%	42.2%	+10.4	4
1976-05-09	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1159	1146	50.5%	30.8%	18.7%	-1.8	2
1976-05-09	@ Stromsgodset	D 1-1	1146	1159	18.7%	30.8%	50.5%	+1.8	4
1976-05-09	Lillestrom	D 0-0	1158	1211	42.9%	31.3%	25.8%	-1.0	1
1976-05-09	@ Vard	D 0-0	1211	1158	25.8%	31.3%	42.9%	+1.0	5
1976-05-10	Bryne	D 1-1	1204	1189	50.7%	30.8%	18.6%	-1.9	4
1976-05-10	@ Start	D 1-1	1189	1204	18.6%	30.8%	50.7%	+1.9	3
1976-05-10	Mjondalen	D 0-0	1235	1179	54.7%	30.2%	15.1%	-2.7	4
1976-05-10	@ Viking	D 0-0	1179	1235	15.1%	30.2%	54.7%	+2.6	3
1976-05-13	Stromsgodset	W 4-1	1208	1157	54.2%	30.3%	15.5%	+12.7	6
1976-05-13	@ Brann	L 1-4	1157	1208	15.5%	30.3%	54.2%	-12.7	2
1976-05-15	Molde	W 1-0	1203	1129	56.3%	29.9%	13.8%	+5.0	6
1976-05-15	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	1129	1203	13.8%	29.9%	56.3%	-5.0	0
1976-05-16	Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1191	1142	54.0%	30.3%	15.7%	-27.2	3
1976-05-16	@ Bryne	W 2-0	1142	1191	15.7%	30.3%	54.0%	+27.1	4
1976-05-16	Vard	W 6-1	1147	1157	48.0%	31.0%	20.9%	+25.6	6
1976-05-16	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-6	1157	1147	20.9%	31.0%	48.0%	-25.6	1
1976-05-16	Viking	D 1-1	1212	1233	46.7%	31.1%	22.2%	-1.4	6
1976-05-16	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	1233	1212	22.2%	31.1%	46.7%	+1.4	5
1976-05-16	Start	W 2-1	1182	1202	46.8%	31.1%	22.1%	+6.9	5
1976-05-16	@ Mjondalen	L 1-2	1202	1182	22.1%	31.1%	46.8%	-6.9	4
1976-05-23	Start	W 3-0	1169	1195	46.1%	31.2%	22.7%	+20.4	6
1976-05-23	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-3	1195	1169	22.7%	31.2%	46.1%	-20.4	4
1976-05-23	Bryne	W 2-0	1124	1164	44.5%	31.2%	24.3%	+14.7	2
1976-05-23	@ Molde	L 0-2	1164	1124	24.3%	31.2%	44.5%	-14.7	3
1976-05-23	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1144	1208	41.5%	31.3%	27.1%	+8.5	4
1976-05-23	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-1	1208	1144	27.1%	31.3%	41.5%	-8.5	6
1976-05-23	Brann	D 0-0	1131	1221	38.1%	31.3%	30.5%	-0.5	2
1976-05-23	@ Vard	D 0-0	1221	1131	30.5%	31.3%	38.1%	+0.5	7
1976-05-24	Mjondalen	W 3-1	1210	1189	51.3%	30.7%	18.0%	+10.2	8
1976-05-24	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	1189	1210	18.0%	30.7%	51.3%	-10.2	5
1976-05-24	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1234	1173	55.1%	30.1%	14.7%	-14.7	5
1976-05-24	@ Viking	W 1-0	1173	1234	14.7%	30.1%	55.1%	+14.7	8
1976-05-26	Stromsgodset	W 5-0	1149	1153	48.6%	31.0%	20.4%	+30.2	5
1976-05-26	@ Bryne	L 0-5	1153	1149	20.4%	31.0%	48.6%	-30.2	4
1976-05-27	Viking	D 1-1	1221	1219	49.2%	30.9%	19.8%	-1.7	8
1976-05-27	@ Brann	D 1-1	1219	1221	19.8%	30.9%	49.2%	+1.7	6
1976-05-27	Lillestrom	L 0-1	1188	1221	45.3%	31.2%	23.5%	-12.3	8
1976-05-27	@ Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1221	1188	23.5%	31.2%	45.3%	+12.3	10
1976-05-27	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1179	1190	47.9%	31.1%	21.1%	+11.5	7
1976-05-27	@ Mjondalen	L 1-3	1190	1179	21.1%	31.1%	47.9%	-11.5	6
1976-05-27	Vard	W 2-1	1199	1131	55.8%	30.0%	14.2%	+4.8	8
1976-05-27	@ Rosenborg	L 1-2	1131	1199	14.2%	30.0%	55.8%	-4.8	2
1976-05-27	Molde	W 1-0	1175	1139	52.8%	30.5%	16.7%	+5.9	6
1976-05-27	@ Start	L 0-1	1139	1175	16.7%	30.5%	52.8%	-5.9	2
1976-05-30	Mjondalen	L 0-2	1175	1190	47.4%	31.1%	21.5%	-24.2	8
1976-05-30	@ Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	1190	1175	21.5%	31.1%	47.4%	+24.2	9
1976-05-30	Fredrikstad	W 3-0	1133	1178	43.8%	31.3%	24.9%	+21.8	4
1976-05-30	@ Molde	L 0-3	1178	1133	24.9%	31.3%	43.8%	-21.8	6
1976-05-30	Start	W 1-0	1122	1181	42.2%	31.3%	26.5%	+8.3	6
1976-05-30	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-1	1181	1122	26.5%	31.3%	42.2%	-8.3	6
1976-05-30	Bryne	D 1-1	1126	1179	42.9%	31.3%	25.8%	-0.9	3
1976-05-30	@ Vard	D 1-1	1179	1126	25.8%	31.3%	42.9%	+0.9	6
1976-05-31	Brann	W 3-1	1233	1219	50.5%	30.8%	18.7%	+10.5	12
1976-05-31	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	1219	1233	18.7%	30.8%	50.5%	-10.5	8
1976-05-31	Rosenborg	W 2-0	1221	1204	50.9%	30.8%	18.4%	+11.9	8
1976-05-31	@ Viking	L 0-2	1204	1221	18.4%	30.8%	50.9%	-11.9	8
1976-06-07	Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	1209	1151	54.8%	30.2%	15.0%	-27.5	8
1976-06-07	@ Brann	W 2-0	1151	1209	15.0%	30.2%	54.8%	+27.5	10
1976-06-07	Viking	D 1-1	1180	1233	42.9%	31.3%	25.9%	-0.9	7
1976-06-07	@ Bryne	D 1-1	1233	1180	25.9%	31.3%	42.9%	+0.9	9
1976-06-07	Stromsgodset	L 0-1	1156	1131	51.7%	30.7%	17.6%	-13.9	6
1976-06-07	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1131	1156	17.6%	30.7%	51.7%	+13.8	8
1976-06-07	Molde	W 2-0	1214	1155	55.0%	30.1%	14.8%	+10.0	11
1976-06-07	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	1155	1214	14.8%	30.1%	55.0%	-10.0	4
1976-06-07	Lillestrom	L 0-1	1192	1243	43.1%	31.3%	25.6%	-11.8	8
1976-06-07	@ Rosenborg	W 1-0	1243	1192	25.6%	31.3%	43.1%	+11.8	14
1976-06-07	Vard	D 1-1	1172	1125	53.8%	30.3%	15.8%	-2.3	7
1976-06-07	@ Start	D 1-1	1125	1172	15.8%	30.3%	53.8%	+2.3	4
1976-06-10	Brann	D 1-1	1179	1181	48.8%	31.0%	20.2%	-1.6	8
1976-06-10	@ Bryne	D 1-1	1181	1179	20.2%	31.0%	48.8%	+1.6	9
1976-06-10	Lillestrom	L 0-3	1142	1255	34.9%	31.3%	33.9%	-27.6	6
1976-06-10	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-0	1255	1142	33.9%	31.3%	34.9%	+27.6	16
1976-06-10	Mjondalen	D 0-0	1180	1224	44.0%	31.3%	24.8%	-1.2	9
1976-06-10	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	1224	1180	24.8%	31.3%	44.0%	+1.2	12
1976-06-10	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1170	1179	48.1%	31.0%	20.9%	-13.0	7
1976-06-10	@ Start	W 1-0	1179	1170	20.9%	31.0%	48.1%	+13.0	12
1976-06-10	Vard	D 0-0	1145	1127	50.9%	30.8%	18.4%	-2.1	9
1976-06-10	@ Stromsgodset	D 0-0	1127	1145	18.4%	30.8%	50.9%	+2.1	5
1976-06-11	Viking	W 3-2	1145	1234	38.1%	31.3%	30.6%	+8.2	6
1976-06-11	@ Molde	L 2-3	1234	1145	30.6%	31.3%	38.1%	-8.2	9
1976-06-20	Bryne	W 6-0	1192	1177	50.6%	30.8%	18.6%	+33.5	14
1976-06-20	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-6	1177	1192	18.6%	30.8%	50.6%	-33.5	8
1976-06-20	Start	D 1-1	1283	1157	60.5%	28.8%	10.7%	-3.1	17
1976-06-20	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	1157	1283	10.7%	28.8%	60.5%	+3.1	8
1976-06-20	Mjondalen	D 2-2	1142	1226	39.0%	31.3%	29.7%	-0.4	10
1976-06-20	@ Stromsgodset	D 2-2	1226	1142	29.7%	31.3%	39.0%	+0.4	13
1976-06-20	Molde	D 0-0	1130	1153	46.5%	31.1%	22.4%	-1.5	6
1976-06-20	@ Vard	D 0-0	1153	1130	22.4%	31.1%	46.5%	+1.5	7
1976-06-21	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1183	1179	49.5%	30.9%	19.6%	+6.7	11
1976-06-21	@ Brann	L 0-1	1179	1183	19.6%	30.9%	49.5%	-6.7	9
1976-06-21	Fredrikstad	W 4-1	1226	1115	59.4%	29.1%	11.5%	+9.8	11
1976-06-21	@ Viking	L 1-4	1115	1226	11.5%	29.1%	59.4%	-9.8	6
1976-06-27	Brann	D 2-2	1226	1190	52.8%	30.5%	16.7%	-1.6	14
1976-06-27	@ Mjondalen	D 2-2	1190	1226	16.7%	30.5%	52.8%	+1.6	12
1976-06-27	Stromsgodset	D 2-2	1154	1142	50.4%	30.8%	18.8%	-1.4	8
1976-06-27	@ Molde	D 2-2	1142	1154	18.8%	30.8%	50.4%	+1.4	11
1976-06-27	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1172	1225	42.9%	31.3%	25.8%	-0.9	10
1976-06-27	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1225	1172	25.8%	31.3%	42.9%	+0.9	15
1976-06-28	Vard	D 3-3	1105	1128	46.5%	31.1%	22.4%	-0.8	7
1976-06-28	@ Fredrikstad	D 3-3	1128	1105	22.4%	31.1%	46.5%	+0.8	7
1976-06-28	Viking	D 1-1	1160	1236	40.0%	31.3%	28.7%	-0.6	9
1976-06-28	@ Start	D 1-1	1236	1160	28.7%	31.3%	40.0%	+0.6	12
1976-06-30	Lillestrom	W 3-2	1144	1280	31.7%	31.1%	37.2%	+9.4	10
1976-06-30	@ Bryne	L 2-3	1280	1144	37.2%	31.1%	31.7%	-9.4	17
1976-07-25	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1226	1104	60.2%	28.9%	10.9%	+7.6	17
1976-07-25	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	1104	1226	10.9%	28.9%	60.2%	-7.6	7
1976-07-25	Vard	W 3-1	1224	1129	58.1%	29.5%	12.4%	+7.4	16
1976-07-25	@ Mjondalen	L 1-3	1129	1224	12.4%	29.5%	58.1%	-7.4	7
1976-07-26	Start	W 2-1	1191	1160	52.3%	30.6%	17.1%	+5.6	14
1976-07-26	@ Brann	L 1-2	1160	1191	17.1%	30.6%	52.3%	-5.6	9
1976-07-26	Molde	W 4-0	1270	1153	59.9%	29.0%	11.2%	+14.8	19
1976-07-26	@ Lillestrom	L 0-4	1153	1270	11.2%	29.0%	59.9%	-14.8	8
1976-07-26	Bryne	W 3-1	1171	1153	51.0%	30.8%	18.3%	+10.3	12
1976-07-26	@ Rosenborg	L 1-3	1153	1171	18.3%	30.8%	51.0%	-10.3	10
1976-07-26	Stromsgodset	D 0-0	1236	1143	57.9%	29.5%	12.6%	-3.1	13
1976-07-26	@ Viking	D 0-0	1143	1236	12.6%	29.5%	57.9%	+3.1	12
1976-08-01	Mjondalen	L 0-2	1143	1232	38.2%	31.3%	30.5%	-20.3	10
1976-08-01	@ Bryne	W 2-0	1232	1143	30.5%	31.3%	38.2%	+20.3	18
1976-08-01	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1138	1234	37.3%	31.3%	31.4%	-0.3	9
1976-08-01	@ Molde	D 1-1	1234	1138	31.4%	31.3%	37.3%	+0.3	18
1976-08-01	Viking	L 1-2	1121	1233	35.1%	31.3%	33.7%	-9.5	7
1976-08-01	@ Vard	W 2-1	1233	1121	33.7%	31.3%	35.1%	+9.5	15
1976-08-02	Brann	D 2-2	1096	1197	36.6%	31.3%	32.1%	-0.2	8
1976-08-02	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1197	1096	32.1%	31.3%	36.6%	+0.2	15
1976-08-02	Rosenborg	W 3-1	1154	1182	45.9%	31.2%	22.9%	+12.2	11
1976-08-02	@ Start	L 1-3	1182	1154	22.9%	31.2%	45.9%	-12.2	12
1976-08-04	Lillestrom	L 2-3	1147	1285	31.3%	31.1%	37.6%	-8.4	12
1976-08-04	@ Stromsgodset	W 3-2	1285	1147	37.6%	31.1%	31.3%	+8.4	21
1976-08-08	Start	D 1-1	1123	1166	44.0%	31.3%	24.7%	-1.1	11
1976-08-08	@ Bryne	D 1-1	1166	1123	24.7%	31.3%	44.0%	+1.1	12
1976-08-08	Stromsgodset	L 1-3	1234	1138	58.1%	29.5%	12.4%	-25.2	18
1976-08-08	@ Hamarkameratene	W 3-1	1138	1234	12.4%	29.5%	58.1%	+25.2	14
1976-08-08	Viking	W 2-1	1252	1243	50.1%	30.9%	19.1%	+6.1	20
1976-08-08	@ Mjondalen	L 1-2	1243	1252	19.1%	30.9%	50.1%	-6.1	15
1976-08-09	Molde	W 1-0	1197	1138	55.0%	30.1%	14.9%	+5.3	17
1976-08-09	@ Brann	L 0-1	1138	1197	14.9%	30.1%	55.0%	-5.3	9
1976-08-09	Vard	W 1-0	1293	1112	64.5%	27.4%	8.2%	+3.1	23
1976-08-09	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	1112	1293	8.2%	27.4%	64.5%	-3.0	7
1976-08-09	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1169	1096	56.2%	29.9%	13.9%	-2.6	13
1976-08-09	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1096	1169	13.9%	29.9%	56.2%	+2.6	9
1976-08-22	Bryne	L 2-5	1099	1122	46.5%	31.1%	22.4%	-25.2	9
1976-08-22	@ Fredrikstad	W 5-2	1122	1099	22.4%	31.1%	46.5%	+25.2	13
1976-08-22	Rosenborg	W 3-0	1133	1167	45.1%	31.2%	23.6%	+21.0	11
1976-08-22	@ Molde	L 0-3	1167	1133	23.6%	31.2%	45.1%	-21.0	13
1976-08-22	Mjondalen	W 2-0	1167	1258	37.9%	31.3%	30.8%	+17.5	14
1976-08-22	@ Start	L 0-2	1258	1167	30.8%	31.3%	37.9%	-17.5	20
1976-08-22	Brann	L 2-4	1163	1202	44.6%	31.2%	24.2%	-17.8	14
1976-08-22	@ Stromsgodset	W 4-2	1202	1163	24.2%	31.2%	44.6%	+17.8	19
1976-08-22	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1109	1209	36.7%	31.3%	32.0%	-0.2	8
1976-08-22	@ Vard	D 1-1	1209	1109	32.0%	31.3%	36.7%	+0.2	19
1976-08-23	Lillestrom	W 3-1	1236	1296	42.0%	31.3%	26.7%	+13.7	17
1976-08-23	@ Viking	L 1-3	1296	1236	26.7%	31.3%	42.0%	-13.7	23
1976-08-29	Molde	W 1-0	1147	1154	48.3%	31.0%	20.6%	+6.9	15
1976-08-29	@ Bryne	L 0-1	1154	1147	20.6%	31.0%	48.3%	-6.9	11
1976-08-29	Viking	D 1-1	1209	1250	44.3%	31.2%	24.4%	-1.1	20
1976-08-29	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1250	1209	24.4%	31.2%	44.3%	+1.1	18
1976-08-29	Lillestrom	L 1-2	1241	1283	44.2%	31.3%	24.5%	-11.4	20
1976-08-29	@ Mjondalen	W 2-1	1283	1241	24.5%	31.3%	44.2%	+11.4	25
1976-08-29	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1185	1074	59.4%	29.1%	11.5%	+8.0	16
1976-08-29	@ Start	L 0-2	1074	1185	11.5%	29.1%	59.4%	-8.0	9
1976-08-30	Vard	W 4-1	1220	1109	59.4%	29.1%	11.5%	+9.8	21
1976-08-30	@ Brann	L 1-4	1109	1220	11.5%	29.1%	59.4%	-9.8	8
1976-08-30	Stromsgodset	D 1-1	1146	1146	49.1%	30.9%	20.0%	-1.7	14
1976-08-30	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1146	1146	20.0%	30.9%	49.1%	+1.7	15
1976-09-12	Mjondalen	L 1-4	1066	1229	28.1%	30.9%	41.1%	-19.9	9
1976-09-12	@ Fredrikstad	W 4-1	1229	1066	41.1%	30.9%	28.1%	+19.9	22
1976-09-12	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	1294	1208	57.3%	29.7%	13.0%	-3.0	26
1976-09-12	@ Lillestrom	D 0-0	1208	1294	13.0%	29.7%	57.3%	+3.0	21
1976-09-12	Start	W 2-0	1147	1193	43.7%	31.3%	25.0%	+15.1	13
1976-09-12	@ Molde	L 0-2	1193	1147	25.0%	31.3%	43.7%	-15.1	16
1976-09-12	Bryne	W 3-1	1147	1154	48.3%	31.0%	20.6%	+11.3	17
1976-09-12	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-3	1154	1147	20.6%	31.0%	48.3%	-11.3	15
1976-09-12	Rosenborg	W 3-0	1099	1144	43.8%	31.3%	24.9%	+21.8	10
1976-09-12	@ Vard	L 0-3	1144	1099	24.9%	31.3%	43.8%	-21.8	14
1976-09-12	Brann	L 0-2	1251	1230	51.3%	30.7%	18.0%	-25.9	18
1976-09-12	@ Viking	W 2-0	1230	1251	18.0%	30.7%	51.3%	+25.9	23
1976-09-19	Lillestrom	W 2-1	1256	1291	45.0%	31.2%	23.7%	+7.3	25
1976-09-19	@ Brann	L 1-2	1291	1256	23.7%	31.2%	45.0%	-7.2	26
1976-09-19	Vard	D 1-1	1143	1121	51.4%	30.7%	17.9%	-2.0	16
1976-09-19	@ Bryne	D 1-1	1121	1143	17.9%	30.7%	51.4%	+2.0	11
1976-09-19	Molde	W 2-1	1046	1162	34.4%	31.2%	34.3%	+9.4	11
1976-09-19	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1162	1046	34.3%	31.2%	34.4%	-9.4	13
1976-09-19	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	1249	1211	53.0%	30.5%	16.5%	+11.0	24
1976-09-19	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	1211	1249	16.5%	30.5%	53.0%	-11.0	21
1976-09-19	Viking	D 1-1	1122	1225	36.3%	31.3%	32.4%	-0.2	15
1976-09-19	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1225	1122	32.4%	31.3%	36.3%	+0.2	19
1976-09-19	Stromsgodset	W 3-2	1178	1159	51.1%	30.7%	18.2%	+5.6	18
1976-09-19	@ Start	L 2-3	1159	1178	18.2%	30.7%	51.1%	-5.6	17
1976-09-25	Bryne	W 1-0	1226	1141	57.2%	29.7%	13.1%	+4.8	21
1976-09-25	@ Viking	L 0-1	1141	1226	13.1%	29.7%	57.2%	-4.8	16
1976-09-26	Brann	L 1-3	1200	1263	41.6%	31.3%	27.1%	-18.8	21
1976-09-26	@ Hamarkameratene	W 3-1	1263	1200	27.1%	31.3%	41.6%	+18.8	27
1976-09-26	Rosenborg	L 1-2	1284	1122	63.1%	27.9%	9.0%	-15.7	26
1976-09-26	@ Lillestrom	W 2-1	1122	1284	9.0%	27.9%	63.1%	+15.7	17
1976-09-26	Mjondalen	W 2-1	1152	1260	35.5%	31.3%	33.2%	+9.2	15
1976-09-26	@ Molde	L 1-2	1260	1152	33.2%	31.3%	35.5%	-9.2	24
1976-09-26	Fredrikstad	W 6-1	1153	1055	58.3%	29.4%	12.3%	+16.5	19
1976-09-26	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-6	1055	1153	12.3%	29.4%	58.3%	-16.4	11
1976-09-26	Start	L 0-1	1123	1183	41.9%	31.3%	26.8%	-11.6	11
1976-09-26	@ Vard	W 1-0	1183	1123	26.8%	31.3%	41.9%	+11.6	20
1976-10-03	Bryne	D 2-2	1282	1136	62.0%	28.3%	9.7%	-2.4	28
1976-10-03	@ Brann	D 2-2	1136	1282	9.7%	28.3%	62.0%	+2.5	17
1976-10-03	Start	L 0-2	1181	1195	47.6%	31.1%	21.4%	-24.2	21
1976-10-03	@ Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	1195	1181	21.4%	31.1%	47.6%	+24.2	22
1976-10-03	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1268	1039	67.5%	25.9%	6.5%	+3.9	28
1976-10-03	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	1039	1268	6.5%	25.9%	67.5%	-3.9	11
1976-10-03	Rosenborg	W 5-3	1251	1138	59.5%	29.1%	11.4%	+5.8	26
1976-10-03	@ Mjondalen	L 3-5	1138	1251	11.4%	29.1%	59.5%	-5.8	17
1976-10-03	Stromsgodset	W 2-0	1111	1169	42.2%	31.3%	26.5%	+15.7	13
1976-10-03	@ Vard	L 0-2	1169	1111	26.5%	31.3%	42.2%	-15.7	19
1976-10-03	Molde	L 0-1	1230	1161	55.8%	30.0%	14.2%	-14.9	21
1976-10-03	@ Viking	W 1-0	1161	1230	14.2%	30.0%	55.8%	+14.8	17
1976-10-10	Hamarkameratene	W 4-0	1138	1157	47.0%	31.1%	21.9%	+25.9	19
1976-10-10	@ Bryne	L 0-4	1157	1138	21.9%	31.1%	47.0%	-25.9	21
1976-10-10	Viking	W 1-0	1035	1215	26.0%	30.7%	43.3%	+11.8	13
1976-10-10	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1215	1035	43.3%	30.7%	26.0%	-11.8	21
1976-10-10	Stromsgodset	W 1-0	1257	1154	58.7%	29.3%	12.0%	+4.4	28
1976-10-10	@ Mjondalen	L 0-1	1154	1257	12.0%	29.3%	58.7%	-4.4	19
1976-10-10	Vard	W 3-1	1176	1127	54.1%	30.3%	15.6%	+9.1	19
1976-10-10	@ Molde	L 1-3	1127	1176	15.6%	30.3%	54.1%	-9.1	13
1976-10-10	Brann	W 3-1	1132	1279	30.2%	31.0%	38.8%	+17.8	19
1976-10-10	@ Rosenborg	L 1-3	1279	1132	38.8%	31.0%	30.2%	-17.8	28
1976-10-10	Lillestrom	D 0-0	1219	1272	42.9%	31.3%	25.8%	-1.0	23
1976-10-10	@ Start	D 0-0	1272	1219	25.8%	31.3%	42.9%	+1.0	29
1976-10-17	Mjondalen	L 0-2	1262	1261	49.1%	30.9%	20.0%	-24.9	28
1976-10-17	@ Brann	W 2-0	1261	1262	20.0%	30.9%	49.1%	+24.9	30
1976-10-17	Rosenborg	L 1-3	1131	1150	47.0%	31.1%	21.9%	-20.8	21
1976-10-17	@ Hamarkameratene	W 3-1	1150	1131	21.9%	31.1%	47.0%	+20.8	21
1976-10-17	Bryne	W 2-0	1273	1164	59.2%	29.2%	11.6%	+8.1	31
1976-10-17	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	1164	1273	11.6%	29.2%	59.2%	-8.1	19
1976-10-17	Molde	L 1-6	1149	1185	44.9%	31.2%	23.8%	-44.7	19
1976-10-17	@ Stromsgodset	W 6-1	1185	1149	23.8%	31.2%	44.9%	+44.7	21
1976-10-17	Fredrikstad	L 3-4	1118	1047	56.0%	29.9%	14.0%	-13.0	13
1976-10-17	@ Vard	W 4-3	1047	1118	14.0%	29.9%	56.0%	+13.0	15
1976-10-17	Start	D 0-0	1204	1218	47.5%	31.1%	21.4%	-1.7	22
1976-10-17	@ Viking	D 0-0	1218	1204	21.4%	31.1%	47.5%	+1.7	24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1976-09-26	9.00%	Rosenborg	1122	2	@ Lillestrom	1284	1
2	1976-08-08	12.40%	Stromsgodset	1138	3	@ Hamarkameratene	1234	1
3	1976-10-17	14.02%	Fredrikstad	1047	4	@ Vard	1118	3
4	1976-10-03	14.18%	Molde	1161	1	@ Viking	1230	0
5	1976-05-24	14.74%	Hamarkameratene	1173	1	@ Viking	1234	0
6	1976-06-07	15.00%	Hamarkameratene	1151	2	@ Brann	1209	0
7	1976-05-16	15.68%	Fredrikstad	1142	2	@ Bryne	1191	0
8	1976-06-07	17.61%	Stromsgodset	1131	1	@ Fredrikstad	1156	0
9	1976-04-25	17.84%	Mjondalen	1166	2	@ Vard	1189	0
10	1976-09-12	17.98%	Brann	1230	2	@ Viking	1251	0
11	1976-05-02	18.45%	Bryne	1176	2	@ Mjondalen	1192	1
12	1976-10-17	19.95%	Mjondalen	1261	2	@ Brann	1262	0
13	1976-04-25	20.11%	Rosenborg	1190	1	@ Bryne	1189	0
14	1976-06-10	20.86%	Hamarkameratene	1179	1	@ Start	1170	0
15	1976-04-25	21.31%	Lillestrom	1175	2	@ Molde	1162	1
16	1976-10-03	21.36%	Start	1195	2	@ Hamarkameratene	1181	0
17	1976-05-30	21.50%	Mjondalen	1190	2	@ Hamarkameratene	1175	0
18	1976-10-17	21.91%	Rosenborg	1150	3	@ Hamarkameratene	1131	1
19	1976-08-22	22.36%	Bryne	1122	5	@ Fredrikstad	1099	2
20	1976-05-27	23.46%	Lillestrom	1221	1	@ Hamarkameratene	1188	0
21	1976-10-17	23.83%	Molde	1185	6	@ Stromsgodset	1149	1
22	1976-08-22	24.17%	Brann	1202	4	@ Stromsgodset	1163	2
23	1976-08-29	24.51%	Lillestrom	1283	2	@ Mjondalen	1241	1
24	1976-06-07	25.63%	Lillestrom	1243	1	@ Rosenborg	1192	0
25	1976-10-10	26.03%	@ Fredrikstad	1035	1	Viking	1215	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1976-10-17	44.73	Molde	6	1185	23.83%	@ Stromsgodset	1	1149	44.94%	31.23%
2	1976-06-20	33.49	@ Hamarkameratene	6	1192	50.58%	Bryne	0	1177	18.62%	30.80%
3	1976-05-26	30.23	@ Bryne	5	1149	48.65%	Stromsgodset	0	1153	20.36%	30.99%
4	1976-06-10	27.62	Lillestrom	3	1255	33.85%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1142	34.89%	31.26%
5	1976-06-07	27.54	Hamarkameratene	2	1151	15.00%	@ Brann	0	1209	54.82%	30.18%
6	1976-05-16	27.15	Fredrikstad	2	1142	15.68%	@ Bryne	0	1191	54.00%	30.32%
7	1976-04-25	25.99	Mjondalen	2	1166	17.84%	@ Vard	0	1189	51.47%	30.69%
8	1976-10-10	25.94	@ Bryne	4	1138	46.96%	Hamarkameratene	0	1157	21.92%	31.11%
9	1976-09-12	25.91	Brann	2	1230	17.98%	@ Viking	0	1251	51.31%	30.71%
10	1976-05-16	25.58	@ Hamarkameratene	6	1147	48.01%	Vard	1	1157	20.95%	31.04%
11	1976-08-22	25.22	Bryne	5	1122	22.36%	@ Fredrikstad	2	1099	46.50%	31.14%
12	1976-08-08	25.18	Stromsgodset	3	1138	12.40%	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1234	58.14%	29.46%
13	1976-10-17	24.92	Mjondalen	2	1261	19.95%	@ Brann	0	1262	49.10%	30.95%
14	1976-10-03	24.24	Start	2	1195	21.36%	@ Hamarkameratene	0	1181	47.57%	31.07%
15	1976-05-30	24.17	Mjondalen	2	1190	21.50%	@ Hamarkameratene	0	1175	47.41%	31.08%
16	1976-05-02	23.77	@ Lillestrom	4	1187	49.54%	Stromsgodset	0	1182	19.55%	30.90%
17	1976-09-12	21.83	@ Vard	3	1099	43.81%	Rosenborg	0	1144	24.92%	31.27%
18	1976-05-30	21.82	@ Molde	3	1133	43.82%	Fredrikstad	0	1178	24.91%	31.27%
19	1976-08-22	21.01	@ Molde	3	1133	45.14%	Rosenborg	0	1167	23.64%	31.22%
20	1976-10-17	20.77	Rosenborg	3	1150	21.91%	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1131	46.98%	31.11%
21	1976-05-23	20.38	@ Fredrikstad	3	1169	46.13%	Start	0	1195	22.71%	31.17%
22	1976-08-01	20.32	Mjondalen	2	1232	30.46%	@ Bryne	0	1143	38.21%	31.33%
23	1976-09-12	19.93	Mjondalen	4	1229	41.06%	@ Fredrikstad	1	1066	28.08%	30.86%
24	1976-09-26	18.79	Brann	3	1263	27.08%	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1200	41.60%	31.32%
25	1976-08-22	17.78	Brann	4	1202	24.17%	@ Stromsgodset	2	1163	44.59%	31.24%