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1975 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Viking

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Mjondalen

5.64 points above expected

24 points · 18.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Os TF

9.39 points below expected

5 points · 14.39 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viking 22 12 6 4 30 38 20 +18 28.34 +1.66
2 Brann 22 10 7 5 27 36 27 +9 24.62 +2.38
3 Start 22 11 5 6 27 29 20 +9 22.33 +4.67
4 Rosenborg 22 11 5 6 27 36 28 +8 25.24 +1.76
5 Stromsgodset 22 10 4 8 24 39 27 +12 26.10 -2.10
6 Mjondalen 22 9 6 7 24 21 21 0 18.36 +5.64
7 Lillestrom 22 10 3 9 23 27 20 +7 24.29 -1.29
8 Molde 22 7 8 7 22 27 29 -2 23.53 -1.53
9 Fredrikstad 22 8 6 8 22 31 35 -4 19.15 +2.85
10 Skeid 22 5 7 10 17 18 23 -5 20.95 -3.95
11 Valerenga 22 3 10 9 16 19 36 -17 16.71 -0.71
12 Os TF 22 0 5 17 5 15 50 -35 14.39 -9.39

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Viking 1380 30 28.34 +1.66 72.0% 14 22 26 28 31 34 42
Brann 1310 27 24.62 +2.38 77.0% 11 18 22 25 27 31 38
Rosenborg 1288 27 25.24 +1.76 72.2% 12 19 23 25 28 31 39
Start 1278 27 22.33 +4.67 91.3% 9 16 20 22 25 29 36
Stromsgodset 1258 24 26.10 -2.10 33.5% 13 20 24 26 29 32 38
Lillestrom 1238 23 24.29 -1.29 41.6% 10 18 22 24 27 31 39
Mjondalen 1224 24 18.36 +5.64 94.6% 5 12 16 18 21 25 32
Molde 1211 22 23.53 -1.53 38.8% 10 17 21 24 26 30 37
Fredrikstad 1196 22 19.15 +2.85 81.2% 6 13 17 19 22 25 32
Skeid 1176 17 20.95 -3.95 18.7% 7 15 18 21 24 27 35
Valerenga 1114 16 16.71 -0.71 48.2% 1 11 14 17 19 23 30
Os TF 991 5 14.39 -9.39 0.2% 2 9 12 14 17 20 27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE LIL MJO MOL OT ROS SKE STA STR VAL VIK
Brann —
0-2-0
3.45
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
2.87
2-0-0
4.16
1-1-0
2.58
1-1-0
3.18
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
2.58
2-0-0
3.56
0-1-1
2.24
Fredrikstad
0-2-0
1.98
 —
1-0-1
2.02
2-0-0
2.74
1-1-0
1.99
2-0-0
3.31
0-0-2
2.22
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
1.70
1-1-0
3.23
0-1-1
1.70
Lillestrom
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.41
 —
1-0-1
3.41
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
3.12
0-1-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
3.85
1-1-0
2.14
Mjondalen
1-0-1
2.05
0-0-2
2.68
1-0-1
2.01
 —
1-1-0
1.86
1-1-0
2.90
1-1-0
1.81
1-1-0
2.61
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
1.71
1-1-0
2.96
0-1-1
1.61
Molde
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
3.44
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
3.58
 —
1-1-0
4.06
1-0-1
2.31
0-1-1
3.10
0-1-1
2.80
0-2-0
2.27
1-1-0
3.46
2-0-0
1.98
Os TF
0-0-2
1.31
0-0-2
2.12
0-0-2
1.65
0-1-1
2.53
0-1-1
1.39
 —
0-0-2
1.32
0-2-0
1.59
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
1.61
0-1-1
2.14
0-0-2
1.48
Rosenborg
0-1-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
2.91
0-1-1
3.62
1-0-1
3.12
2-0-0
4.14
 —
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
2.46
0-2-0
3.78
0-1-1
2.31
Skeid
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
3.04
1-0-1
2.32
0-1-1
2.82
1-1-0
2.33
0-2-0
3.86
0-0-2
2.34
 —
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
1.90
1-1-0
3.13
0-0-2
1.80
Start
1-1-0
2.34
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
2.31
1-0-1
3.20
1-1-0
2.62
2-0-0
4.04
1-0-1
2.26
1-1-0
2.92
 —
0-0-2
2.20
1-1-0
3.38
0-0-2
1.95
Stromsgodset
0-1-1
2.85
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.73
0-2-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.84
0-0-2
2.96
1-0-1
3.53
2-0-0
3.23
 —
1-0-1
4.01
1-0-1
2.14
Valerenga
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-1
2.20
1-1-0
1.60
0-1-1
2.47
0-1-1
1.98
1-1-0
3.28
0-2-0
1.66
0-1-1
2.30
0-1-1
2.05
1-0-1
1.44
 —
0-1-1
1.16
Viking
1-1-0
3.19
1-1-0
3.74
0-1-1
3.30
1-1-0
3.84
0-0-2
3.46
2-0-0
3.97
1-1-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.64
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.28
1-1-0
4.31
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.65 +6.5
Allowed 0.65 -6.1
Differential 0.92 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%10.98%6.82%3.79%0.76%0.38%29.55%
110.98%12.88%6.44%3.03%0.76%0.76%34.85%
26.82%6.44%6.06%1.14%0.38%0.76%21.59%
33.79%3.03%1.14%1.52%0.38%—9.85%
40.76%0.76%0.38%0.38%——2.27%
5+0.38%0.76%0.76%———1.89%
Total29.55%34.85%21.59%9.85%2.27%1.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.27 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.74
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
19.09%18.18%———4.55%31.82%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total27.27%40.91%22.73%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.23 +0.41
SD 1.40 1.19 1.76
CV 0.85 0.97 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%—4.55%—4.55%22.73%
1—18.18%9.09%———27.27%
29.09%13.64%9.09%——4.55%36.36%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%54.55%18.18%4.55%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.59 -0.18
SD 1.01 1.59 2.11
CV 0.72 1.00 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
118.18%9.09%9.09%9.09%——45.45%
24.55%9.09%————13.64%
34.55%—————4.55%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total40.91%36.36%13.64%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 0.91 +0.32
SD 1.19 0.97 1.78
CV 0.97 1.07 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%13.64%—4.55%—40.91%
118.18%9.09%—4.55%——31.82%
29.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total45.45%27.27%18.18%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 0.95 +0.00
SD 1.00 1.13 1.69
CV 1.05 1.19 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
19.09%18.18%4.55%9.09%——40.91%
29.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%——40.91%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%36.36%27.27%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.32 -0.09
SD 0.75 0.99 1.23
CV 0.61 0.75 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%—45.45%
1—13.64%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%45.45%
2————4.55%—4.55%
3————4.55%—4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%27.27%9.09%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 2.27 -1.59
SD 0.78 1.55 1.37
CV 1.14 0.68 —
Max 3 6 +0
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
113.64%9.09%————22.73%
213.64%4.55%9.09%———27.27%
3——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total27.27%31.82%27.27%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.27 +0.36
SD 1.53 1.03 1.53
CV 0.93 0.81 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%18.18%4.55%4.55%——45.45%
113.64%9.09%13.64%———36.36%
2——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%31.82%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.05 -0.23
SD 0.96 1.00 1.31
CV 1.17 0.96 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%———31.82%
113.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
213.64%9.09%————22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total36.36%40.91%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 0.91 +0.41
SD 1.21 0.87 1.37
CV 0.92 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
113.64%13.64%13.64%4.55%——45.45%
29.09%—4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
313.64%—————13.64%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total36.36%27.27%22.73%9.09%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.23 +0.55
SD 1.38 1.31 2.04
CV 0.78 1.06 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%22.73%——45.45%
14.55%22.73%—4.55%——31.82%
2——13.64%———13.64%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.64%36.36%22.73%27.27%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.64 -0.77
SD 0.99 1.05 1.60
CV 1.15 0.64 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%—4.55%——18.18%
118.18%4.55%9.09%———31.82%
29.09%13.64%9.09%———31.82%
34.55%——4.55%——9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total45.45%27.27%18.18%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.91 +0.82
SD 1.52 1.02 1.87
CV 0.88 1.12 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mjondalen 24 18.36 +5.64
2 Start 27 22.33 +4.67
3 Fredrikstad 22 19.15 +2.85
4 Brann 27 24.62 +2.38
5 Rosenborg 27 25.24 +1.76

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Os TF 5 14.39 -9.39
2 Skeid 17 20.95 -3.95
3 Stromsgodset 24 26.10 -2.10
4 Molde 22 23.53 -1.53
5 Lillestrom 23 24.29 -1.29

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mjondalen 6 Jul 27 – Sep 15 1 in 2,095
2 Start 5 Jun 14 – Aug 10 1 in 149
3 Molde 4 May 7 – May 22 1 in 57
4 Lillestrom 3 May 3 – May 11 1 in 16
5 Valerenga 2 Aug 31 – Sep 14 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Os TF 10 Jun 1 – Sep 14 1 in 387
2 Stromsgodset 4 Sep 28 – Oct 19 1 in 321
3 Lillestrom 4 Jun 22 – Aug 10 1 in 194
4 Skeid 5 May 5 – May 22 1 in 121
5 Molde 3 Jun 14 – Jul 27 1 in 86

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mjondalen 8 Jul 27 – Sep 28 1 in 108
2 Brann 9 Jun 1 – Aug 31 1 in 33
3 Molde 6 Sep 13 – Oct 19 1 in 20
4 Lillestrom 8 Apr 27 – Jun 1 1 in 17
5 Stromsgodset 8 Apr 27 – Jun 1 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Os TF 22 Apr 27 – Oct 19 1 in 112
2 Valerenga 15 Apr 28 – Aug 25 1 in 100
3 Stromsgodset 5 Sep 21 – Oct 19 1 in 25
4 Skeid 7 May 5 – Jun 1 1 in 21
5 Molde 5 Sep 21 – Oct 19 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Viking41.33%22.00%13.54%8.47%6.54%3.49%2.23%1.24%0.64%0.38%0.10%0.04%
Brann9.91%12.94%14.14%13.93%12.81%11.09%9.27%7.12%4.41%2.78%1.31%0.29%
Start3.32%5.98%8.26%10.21%12.10%13.81%13.37%11.68%9.45%6.72%3.82%1.28%
Rosenborg12.25%15.38%15.04%14.33%12.92%9.64%7.94%5.36%3.62%2.16%1.02%0.34%
Stromsgodset17.64%19.22%16.32%13.92%10.36%8.39%6.00%3.99%2.37%1.16%0.52%0.11%
Mjondalen0.23%0.82%1.70%2.68%3.75%6.46%8.91%12.52%16.58%18.46%17.05%10.84%
Lillestrom8.22%11.58%13.31%13.91%12.38%11.96%10.26%8.08%5.06%3.18%1.64%0.42%
Molde5.21%8.11%10.17%11.61%13.34%13.46%11.84%10.57%7.33%4.96%2.62%0.78%
Fredrikstad0.38%1.16%2.13%3.57%5.22%7.45%9.86%13.67%17.88%16.86%14.03%7.79%
Skeid1.48%2.62%4.71%6.20%8.38%10.75%13.45%14.23%14.58%12.31%7.98%3.31%
Valerenga0.03%0.16%0.58%0.90%1.83%2.74%4.95%8.13%12.40%18.92%27.44%21.92%
Os TF—0.03%0.10%0.27%0.37%0.76%1.92%3.41%5.68%12.11%22.47%52.88%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.03%
No Edge
37.88%27.27%34.85%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 10.53 Elo pts.
218 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.15 goals
Neutral
-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
41%
Viking, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.02 * Some Luck: 3.02 to 4.53 * Lucky: 4.53 to 6.04 * Wild Swing: 6.04 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.55 * Close: 1.55 to 2.32 * Off: 2.32 to 3.1 * Way Off: 3.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.94 points
Some Luck
03.779
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.944
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.55%
Mjondalen
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.22%
Os TF
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.43
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.14
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.43
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.89
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.055
Well Within Noise
00.1520.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Viking 99.48% 0.52%
Stromsgodset 98.21% 1.79%
Rosenborg 96.48% 3.52%
Brann 95.62% 4.38%
Lillestrom 94.76% 5.24%
Molde 91.64% 8.36%
Start 88.18% 11.82%
Skeid 76.40% 23.60%
Fredrikstad 61.32% 38.68%
Mjondalen 53.65% 46.35%
Valerenga 31.72% 68.28%
Os TF 12.54% 87.46%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1975-04-27 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1261 1227 43.0% 28.8% 28.2% -1.0 1
1975-04-27 @ Brann D 1-1 1227 1261 28.2% 28.8% 43.0% +1.0 1
1975-04-27 Start D 0-0 1217 1197 41.1% 28.9% 30.0% -0.8 1
1975-04-27 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1197 1217 30.0% 28.9% 41.1% +0.8 1
1975-04-27 Molde D 1-1 1162 1255 26.0% 28.7% 45.4% +1.3 1
1975-04-27 @ Mjondalen D 1-1 1255 1162 45.4% 28.7% 26.0% -1.3 1
1975-04-27 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1252 1172 48.6% 28.6% 22.9% +8.1 2
1975-04-27 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1172 1252 22.9% 28.6% 48.6% -8.1 0
1975-04-27 Os TF W 2-0 1297 1199 50.7% 28.4% 20.9% +15.2 2
1975-04-27 @ Viking L 0-2 1199 1297 20.9% 28.4% 50.7% -15.2 0
1975-04-28 Skeid L 0-3 1213 1212 38.5% 28.9% 32.6% -34.7 0
1975-04-28 @ Valerenga W 3-0 1212 1213 32.6% 28.9% 38.5% +34.7 2
1975-05-03 Lillestrom L 1-2 1253 1216 43.4% 28.8% 27.8% -13.1 1
1975-05-03 @ Molde W 2-1 1216 1253 27.8% 28.8% 43.4% +13.1 3
1975-05-04 Brann D 1-1 1164 1260 25.6% 28.6% 45.8% +1.3 1
1975-05-04 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1260 1164 45.8% 28.6% 25.6% -1.3 2
1975-05-04 Mjondalen D 0-0 1184 1163 41.1% 28.9% 30.0% -0.8 1
1975-05-04 @ Os TF D 0-0 1163 1184 30.0% 28.9% 41.1% +0.8 2
1975-05-04 Valerenga D 1-1 1197 1178 41.0% 28.9% 30.1% -0.7 2
1975-05-04 @ Start D 1-1 1178 1197 30.1% 28.9% 41.0% +0.7 1
1975-05-04 Viking W 3-0 1228 1312 26.9% 28.7% 44.4% +38.8 3
1975-05-04 @ Stromsgodset L 0-3 1312 1228 44.4% 28.7% 26.9% -38.8 2
1975-05-05 Rosenborg L 0-1 1247 1260 36.5% 28.9% 34.6% -12.2 2
1975-05-05 @ Skeid W 1-0 1260 1247 34.6% 28.9% 36.5% +12.2 4
1975-05-07 Molde L 0-2 1179 1240 29.8% 28.8% 41.3% -19.9 1
1975-05-07 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1240 1179 41.3% 28.8% 29.8% +19.9 3
1975-05-08 Skeid W 2-1 1259 1235 41.6% 28.9% 29.5% +9.9 4
1975-05-08 @ Brann L 1-2 1235 1259 29.5% 28.9% 41.6% -9.9 2
1975-05-08 Mjondalen W 4-0 1229 1164 46.8% 28.7% 24.5% +32.5 5
1975-05-08 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1164 1229 24.5% 28.7% 46.8% -32.5 2
1975-05-08 Start W 2-0 1272 1197 48.1% 28.6% 23.3% +16.5 6
1975-05-08 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1197 1272 23.3% 28.6% 48.1% -16.5 2
1975-05-08 Os TF W 6-1 1266 1183 49.0% 28.5% 22.4% +31.0 5
1975-05-08 @ Stromsgodset L 1-6 1183 1266 22.4% 28.5% 49.0% -31.1 1
1975-05-08 Fredrikstad W 6-0 1273 1166 51.7% 28.3% 20.0% +40.6 4
1975-05-08 @ Viking L 0-6 1166 1273 20.0% 28.3% 51.7% -40.6 1
1975-05-11 Valerenga D 2-2 1131 1159 34.4% 28.9% 36.6% +0.1 3
1975-05-11 @ Mjondalen D 2-2 1159 1131 36.6% 28.9% 34.4% -0.1 2
1975-05-11 Lillestrom L 0-4 1152 1262 24.0% 28.5% 47.5% -32.0 1
1975-05-11 @ Os TF W 4-0 1262 1152 47.5% 28.5% 24.0% +32.0 7
1975-05-11 Brann W 2-0 1180 1269 26.5% 28.7% 44.9% +27.0 4
1975-05-11 @ Start L 0-2 1269 1180 44.9% 28.7% 26.5% -27.0 4
1975-05-12 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1125 1298 17.8% 27.9% 54.3% +2.5 2
1975-05-12 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1298 1125 54.3% 27.9% 17.8% -2.5 6
1975-05-12 Rosenborg W 1-0 1260 1289 34.3% 28.9% 36.8% +12.3 5
1975-05-12 @ Molde L 0-1 1289 1260 36.8% 28.9% 34.3% -12.3 6
1975-05-12 Viking L 0-1 1225 1314 26.4% 28.7% 45.0% -9.6 2
1975-05-12 @ Skeid W 1-0 1314 1225 45.0% 28.7% 26.4% +9.6 6
1975-05-19 Molde L 0-2 1242 1272 34.0% 28.9% 37.1% -21.9 4
1975-05-19 @ Brann W 2-0 1272 1242 37.1% 28.9% 34.0% +21.9 7
1975-05-19 Os TF W 3-0 1128 1120 39.4% 28.9% 31.7% +30.2 4
1975-05-19 @ Fredrikstad L 0-3 1120 1128 31.7% 28.9% 39.4% -30.2 1
1975-05-19 Mjondalen D 1-1 1277 1132 55.4% 27.9% 16.7% -2.7 7
1975-05-19 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1132 1277 16.7% 27.9% 55.4% +2.7 4
1975-05-19 Skeid W 1-0 1295 1215 48.6% 28.6% 22.9% +8.6 8
1975-05-19 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1215 1295 22.9% 28.6% 48.6% -8.6 2
1975-05-19 Lillestrom D 1-1 1159 1294 21.3% 28.3% 50.4% +2.0 3
1975-05-19 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1294 1159 50.4% 28.3% 21.3% -2.0 8
1975-05-19 Start W 2-1 1324 1207 52.6% 28.2% 19.2% +7.1 8
1975-05-19 @ Viking L 1-2 1207 1324 19.2% 28.2% 52.6% -7.1 4
1975-05-22 Rosenborg W 1-0 1292 1274 40.8% 28.9% 30.3% +10.7 10
1975-05-22 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1274 1292 30.3% 28.9% 40.8% -10.7 7
1975-05-22 Brann L 0-1 1134 1220 26.8% 28.7% 44.5% -9.7 4
1975-05-22 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1220 1134 44.5% 28.7% 26.8% +9.7 6
1975-05-22 Viking W 2-1 1294 1331 33.2% 28.9% 37.9% +11.8 9
1975-05-22 @ Molde L 1-2 1331 1294 37.9% 28.9% 33.2% -11.8 8
1975-05-22 Valerenga D 1-1 1090 1161 28.6% 28.8% 42.6% +0.9 2
1975-05-22 @ Os TF D 1-1 1161 1090 42.6% 28.8% 28.6% -0.9 4
1975-05-22 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1207 1158 44.9% 28.8% 26.4% -13.5 2
1975-05-22 @ Skeid W 2-1 1158 1207 26.4% 28.8% 44.9% +13.5 6
1975-05-22 Stromsgodset L 0-1 1200 1304 24.7% 28.6% 46.7% -9.1 4
1975-05-22 @ Start W 1-0 1304 1200 46.7% 28.6% 24.7% +9.2 10
1975-05-25 Start L 1-2 1171 1191 35.6% 28.9% 35.5% -11.3 6
1975-05-25 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1191 1171 35.5% 28.9% 35.6% +11.3 6
1975-05-25 Molde D 1-1 1313 1306 39.3% 28.9% 31.8% -0.5 11
1975-05-25 @ Stromsgodset D 1-1 1306 1313 31.8% 28.9% 39.3% +0.5 10
1975-05-26 Lillestrom L 0-1 1230 1302 28.4% 28.8% 42.9% -10.2 6
1975-05-26 @ Brann W 1-0 1302 1230 42.9% 28.8% 28.4% +10.2 12
1975-05-26 Valerenga D 1-1 1263 1160 51.2% 28.4% 20.4% -2.1 8
1975-05-26 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1160 1263 20.4% 28.4% 51.2% +2.1 5
1975-05-26 Os TF D 0-0 1193 1090 51.1% 28.4% 20.5% -2.3 3
1975-05-26 @ Skeid D 0-0 1090 1193 20.5% 28.4% 51.1% +2.3 3
1975-05-26 Mjondalen W 2-0 1319 1125 59.8% 27.2% 13.1% +10.2 10
1975-05-26 @ Viking L 0-2 1125 1319 13.1% 27.2% 59.8% -10.2 4
1975-06-01 Viking W 1-0 1313 1329 36.0% 28.9% 35.0% +11.9 14
1975-06-01 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1329 1313 35.0% 28.9% 36.0% -11.9 10
1975-06-01 Stromsgodset L 0-2 1114 1312 15.7% 27.5% 56.8% -11.9 4
1975-06-01 @ Mjondalen W 2-0 1312 1114 56.8% 27.5% 15.7% +11.9 13
1975-06-01 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1307 1160 55.6% 27.9% 16.5% -32.6 10
1975-06-01 @ Molde W 2-0 1160 1307 16.5% 27.9% 55.6% +32.6 8
1975-06-01 Rosenborg L 3-4 1093 1261 18.1% 27.9% 53.9% -6.2 3
1975-06-01 @ Os TF W 4-3 1261 1093 53.9% 27.9% 18.1% +6.2 10
1975-06-01 Skeid W 3-2 1202 1191 39.9% 28.9% 31.2% +9.8 8
1975-06-01 @ Start L 2-3 1191 1202 31.2% 28.9% 39.9% -9.8 3
1975-06-01 Brann L 0-3 1162 1219 30.4% 28.8% 40.8% -29.3 5
1975-06-01 @ Valerenga W 3-0 1219 1162 40.8% 28.8% 30.4% +29.3 8
1975-06-04 Viking D 0-0 1249 1317 28.9% 28.8% 42.3% +1.0 9
1975-06-04 @ Brann D 0-0 1317 1249 42.3% 28.8% 28.9% -1.0 11
1975-06-04 Skeid L 0-1 1324 1181 55.3% 27.9% 16.8% -17.2 14
1975-06-04 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1181 1324 16.8% 27.9% 55.3% +17.2 5
1975-06-04 Start W 1-0 1102 1212 24.0% 28.5% 47.4% +15.0 6
1975-06-04 @ Mjondalen L 0-1 1212 1102 47.4% 28.5% 24.0% -15.0 8
1975-06-04 Os TF W 1-0 1274 1087 59.2% 27.3% 13.5% +5.6 12
1975-06-04 @ Molde L 0-1 1087 1274 13.5% 27.3% 59.2% -5.6 3
1975-06-04 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1267 1324 30.4% 28.8% 40.7% +25.0 12
1975-06-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1324 1267 40.7% 28.8% 30.4% -25.0 13
1975-06-05 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1133 1193 30.1% 28.8% 41.1% -17.3 5
1975-06-05 @ Valerenga W 3-1 1193 1133 41.1% 28.8% 30.1% +17.3 10
1975-06-14 Molde W 3-1 1197 1280 27.2% 28.7% 44.1% +23.0 10
1975-06-14 @ Start L 1-3 1280 1197 44.1% 28.7% 27.2% -23.0 12
1975-06-14 Rosenborg W 3-0 1316 1292 41.6% 28.9% 29.5% +28.7 13
1975-06-14 @ Viking L 0-3 1292 1316 29.5% 28.9% 41.6% -28.7 12
1975-06-15 Os TF W 2-1 1250 1081 57.6% 27.6% 14.8% +5.7 11
1975-06-15 @ Brann L 1-2 1081 1250 14.8% 27.6% 57.6% -5.7 3
1975-06-15 Lillestrom L 0-1 1210 1307 25.4% 28.6% 46.0% -9.3 10
1975-06-15 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1307 1210 46.0% 28.6% 25.4% +9.3 16
1975-06-15 Mjondalen D 0-0 1198 1117 48.7% 28.6% 22.8% -2.0 6
1975-06-15 @ Skeid D 0-0 1117 1198 22.8% 28.6% 48.7% +2.0 7
1975-06-15 Valerenga W 3-0 1299 1115 58.9% 27.3% 13.8% +15.5 15
1975-06-15 @ Stromsgodset L 0-3 1115 1299 13.8% 27.3% 58.9% -15.5 5
1975-06-22 Stromsgodset L 0-1 1317 1315 38.6% 28.9% 32.5% -12.7 16
1975-06-22 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1315 1317 32.5% 28.9% 38.6% +12.7 17
1975-06-22 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1119 1200 27.4% 28.7% 43.9% -18.6 7
1975-06-22 @ Mjondalen W 2-0 1200 1119 43.9% 28.7% 27.4% +18.6 12
1975-06-22 Skeid L 0-1 1256 1196 46.2% 28.7% 25.1% -14.7 12
1975-06-22 @ Molde W 1-0 1196 1256 25.1% 28.7% 46.2% +14.7 8
1975-06-22 Start L 1-2 1075 1220 20.3% 28.2% 51.4% -7.4 3
1975-06-22 @ Os TF W 2-1 1220 1075 51.4% 28.2% 20.3% +7.4 12
1975-06-22 Brann D 2-2 1264 1255 39.5% 28.9% 31.6% -0.4 13
1975-06-22 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1255 1264 31.6% 28.9% 39.5% +0.4 12
1975-06-23 Viking L 0-1 1100 1345 12.5% 26.8% 60.8% -5.1 5
1975-06-23 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1345 1100 60.8% 26.8% 12.5% +5.1 15
1975-07-27 Mjondalen L 0-2 1242 1101 55.0% 27.9% 17.0% -32.3 12
1975-07-27 @ Molde W 2-0 1101 1242 17.0% 27.9% 55.0% +32.3 9
1975-07-27 Viking L 0-1 1068 1350 10.4% 26.1% 63.6% -4.3 3
1975-07-27 @ Os TF W 1-0 1350 1068 63.6% 26.1% 10.4% +4.3 17
1975-07-27 Brann L 2-5 1327 1256 47.6% 28.6% 23.8% -30.1 17
1975-07-27 @ Stromsgodset W 5-2 1256 1327 23.8% 28.6% 47.6% +30.1 14
1975-07-28 Rosenborg L 2-6 1219 1263 32.1% 28.9% 39.0% -28.2 12
1975-07-28 @ Fredrikstad W 6-2 1263 1219 39.0% 28.9% 32.1% +28.2 15
1975-07-28 Lillestrom W 2-0 1227 1304 27.9% 28.8% 43.3% +26.2 14
1975-07-28 @ Start L 0-2 1304 1227 43.3% 28.8% 27.9% -26.2 16
1975-07-29 Valerenga D 0-0 1211 1095 52.6% 28.2% 19.2% -2.6 9
1975-07-29 @ Skeid D 0-0 1095 1211 19.2% 28.2% 52.6% +2.6 6
1975-08-03 Molde L 1-2 1278 1209 47.2% 28.6% 24.1% -14.1 16
1975-08-03 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1209 1278 24.1% 28.6% 47.2% +14.1 14
1975-08-03 Os TF W 2-0 1133 1064 47.4% 28.6% 24.0% +16.9 11
1975-08-03 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1064 1133 24.0% 28.6% 47.4% -16.9 3
1975-08-04 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1286 1191 50.3% 28.4% 21.3% -2.0 15
1975-08-04 @ Brann D 1-1 1191 1286 21.3% 28.4% 50.3% +2.0 13
1975-08-04 Skeid W 2-0 1292 1208 48.9% 28.5% 22.5% +16.1 17
1975-08-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1208 1292 22.5% 28.5% 48.9% -16.1 9
1975-08-04 Start L 0-2 1097 1254 19.2% 28.1% 52.7% -14.1 6
1975-08-04 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1254 1097 52.7% 28.1% 19.2% +14.2 16
1975-08-04 Stromsgodset W 2-1 1354 1297 45.9% 28.7% 25.4% +8.8 19
1975-08-04 @ Viking L 1-2 1297 1354 25.4% 28.7% 45.9% -8.8 17
1975-08-07 Brann D 1-1 1192 1284 26.1% 28.7% 45.2% +1.2 10
1975-08-07 @ Skeid D 1-1 1284 1192 45.2% 28.7% 26.1% -1.2 16
1975-08-10 Viking D 2-2 1193 1363 18.0% 27.9% 54.1% +1.9 14
1975-08-10 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1363 1193 54.1% 27.9% 18.0% -1.9 20
1975-08-10 Lillestrom W 3-1 1150 1264 23.6% 28.5% 47.9% +24.7 13
1975-08-10 @ Mjondalen L 1-3 1264 1150 47.9% 28.5% 23.6% -24.7 16
1975-08-10 Valerenga D 0-0 1224 1083 55.0% 28.0% 17.1% -3.0 15
1975-08-10 @ Molde D 0-0 1083 1224 17.1% 28.0% 55.0% +3.0 7
1975-08-10 Stromsgodset L 1-4 1047 1288 12.7% 26.8% 60.5% -12.1 3
1975-08-10 @ Os TF W 4-1 1288 1047 60.5% 26.8% 12.7% +12.1 19
1975-08-10 Rosenborg W 1-0 1268 1308 32.7% 28.9% 38.4% +12.7 18
1975-08-10 @ Start L 0-1 1308 1268 38.4% 28.9% 32.7% -12.7 17
1975-08-24 Os TF W 2-0 1239 1035 60.6% 27.0% 12.4% +9.8 18
1975-08-24 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1035 1239 12.4% 27.0% 60.6% -9.7 3
1975-08-24 Fredrikstad W 3-0 1301 1195 51.5% 28.3% 20.2% +21.4 21
1975-08-24 @ Stromsgodset L 0-3 1195 1301 20.2% 28.3% 51.5% -21.4 14
1975-08-25 Start D 3-3 1283 1280 38.6% 28.9% 32.4% -0.2 17
1975-08-25 @ Brann D 3-3 1280 1283 32.4% 28.9% 38.6% +0.2 19
1975-08-25 Molde W 3-2 1295 1221 47.9% 28.6% 23.5% +7.9 19
1975-08-25 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1221 1295 23.5% 28.6% 47.9% -7.9 15
1975-08-25 Mjondalen L 0-3 1086 1175 26.5% 28.7% 44.9% -26.4 7
1975-08-25 @ Valerenga W 3-0 1175 1086 44.9% 28.7% 26.5% +26.4 15
1975-08-25 Skeid W 2-1 1361 1194 57.5% 27.6% 14.9% +5.7 22
1975-08-25 @ Viking L 1-2 1194 1361 14.9% 27.6% 57.5% -5.7 10
1975-08-31 Valerenga L 1-3 1249 1060 59.3% 27.3% 13.4% -30.1 18
1975-08-31 @ Lillestrom W 3-1 1060 1249 13.4% 27.3% 59.3% +30.1 9
1975-08-31 Rosenborg W 1-0 1201 1303 24.9% 28.6% 46.5% +14.7 17
1975-08-31 @ Mjondalen L 0-1 1303 1201 46.5% 28.6% 24.9% -14.7 19
1975-08-31 Brann L 1-3 1213 1282 28.8% 28.8% 42.4% -16.8 15
1975-08-31 @ Molde W 3-1 1282 1213 42.4% 28.8% 28.8% +16.8 19
1975-08-31 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1025 1173 20.0% 28.2% 51.9% -7.3 3
1975-08-31 @ Os TF W 2-1 1173 1025 51.9% 28.2% 20.0% +7.3 16
1975-08-31 Viking L 0-1 1281 1367 26.7% 28.7% 44.6% -9.7 19
1975-08-31 @ Start W 1-0 1367 1281 44.6% 28.7% 26.7% +9.7 24
1975-09-02 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1188 1322 21.4% 28.3% 50.3% +25.8 12
1975-09-02 @ Skeid L 1-3 1322 1188 50.3% 28.3% 21.4% -25.8 21
1975-09-13 Molde L 1-2 1377 1196 58.7% 27.4% 14.0% -17.2 24
1975-09-13 @ Viking W 2-1 1196 1377 14.0% 27.4% 58.7% +17.2 17
1975-09-14 Skeid L 0-1 1181 1214 33.7% 28.9% 37.4% -11.5 16
1975-09-14 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1214 1181 37.4% 28.9% 33.7% +11.5 14
1975-09-14 Start W 2-0 1296 1271 41.8% 28.9% 29.3% +19.7 23
1975-09-14 @ Stromsgodset L 0-2 1271 1296 29.3% 28.9% 41.8% -19.7 19
1975-09-14 Os TF W 3-1 1090 1018 47.7% 28.6% 23.7% +14.5 11
1975-09-14 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1018 1090 23.7% 28.6% 47.7% -14.5 3
1975-09-15 Mjondalen L 0-1 1299 1216 49.0% 28.5% 22.5% -15.4 19
1975-09-15 @ Brann W 1-0 1216 1299 22.5% 28.5% 49.0% +15.4 19
1975-09-15 Lillestrom W 1-0 1288 1219 47.4% 28.6% 24.0% +9.0 21
1975-09-15 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1219 1288 24.0% 28.6% 47.4% -9.0 18
1975-09-20 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1251 1169 48.8% 28.5% 22.6% +8.5 21
1975-09-20 @ Start L 0-1 1169 1251 22.6% 28.5% 48.8% -8.6 16
1975-09-21 Brann L 0-1 1210 1284 28.2% 28.8% 43.0% -10.1 18
1975-09-21 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1284 1210 43.0% 28.8% 28.2% +10.1 21
1975-09-21 Viking D 0-0 1231 1360 22.0% 28.4% 49.6% +2.1 20
1975-09-21 @ Mjondalen D 0-0 1360 1231 49.6% 28.4% 22.0% -2.1 25
1975-09-21 Stromsgodset D 2-2 1213 1316 24.8% 28.6% 46.6% +1.1 18
1975-09-21 @ Molde D 2-2 1316 1213 46.6% 28.6% 24.8% -1.1 24
1975-09-21 Skeid D 1-1 1003 1225 14.0% 27.2% 58.9% +3.2 4
1975-09-21 @ Os TF D 1-1 1225 1003 58.9% 27.2% 14.0% -3.2 15
1975-09-21 Rosenborg D 2-2 1104 1297 16.1% 27.6% 56.3% +2.1 12
1975-09-21 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1297 1104 56.3% 27.6% 16.1% -2.1 22
1975-09-28 Valerenga W 3-0 1294 1106 59.2% 27.3% 13.5% +15.3 23
1975-09-28 @ Brann L 0-3 1106 1294 13.5% 27.3% 59.2% -15.3 12
1975-09-28 Molde D 2-2 1161 1214 30.9% 28.9% 40.3% +0.4 17
1975-09-28 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1214 1161 40.3% 28.9% 30.9% -0.5 19
1975-09-28 Os TF W 1-0 1295 1006 66.4% 25.4% 8.2% +3.5 24
1975-09-28 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1006 1295 8.2% 25.4% 66.4% -3.5 4
1975-09-28 Start D 0-0 1222 1260 33.0% 28.9% 38.1% +0.4 16
1975-09-28 @ Skeid D 0-0 1260 1222 38.1% 28.9% 33.0% -0.4 22
1975-09-28 Mjondalen L 1-2 1315 1233 48.8% 28.5% 22.7% -14.5 24
1975-09-28 @ Stromsgodset W 2-1 1233 1315 22.7% 28.5% 48.8% +14.5 22
1975-10-05 Valerenga D 1-1 1161 1091 47.4% 28.6% 24.0% -1.6 18
1975-10-05 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1091 1161 24.0% 28.6% 47.4% +1.6 13
1975-10-05 Molde D 1-1 1003 1214 14.8% 27.3% 57.9% +3.1 5
1975-10-05 @ Os TF D 1-1 1214 1003 57.9% 27.3% 14.8% -3.1 20
1975-10-05 Lillestrom L 0-3 1222 1199 41.5% 28.9% 29.7% -36.8 16
1975-10-05 @ Skeid W 3-0 1199 1222 29.7% 28.9% 41.5% +36.8 20
1975-10-05 Mjondalen W 1-0 1259 1248 40.0% 28.9% 31.1% +10.9 24
1975-10-05 @ Start L 0-1 1248 1259 31.1% 28.9% 40.0% -10.9 22
1975-10-05 Rosenborg L 2-3 1300 1298 38.6% 28.9% 32.5% -11.4 24
1975-10-05 @ Stromsgodset W 3-2 1298 1300 32.5% 28.9% 38.6% +11.4 26
1975-10-05 Brann W 5-1 1358 1309 44.8% 28.8% 26.4% +28.8 27
1975-10-05 @ Viking L 1-5 1309 1358 26.4% 28.8% 44.8% -28.8 23
1975-10-08 Lillestrom D 1-1 1386 1236 55.9% 27.8% 16.3% -2.8 28
1975-10-08 @ Viking D 1-1 1236 1386 16.3% 27.8% 55.9% +2.8 21
1975-10-12 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1239 1159 48.5% 28.6% 22.9% -14.4 21
1975-10-12 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1159 1239 22.9% 28.6% 48.5% +14.4 20
1975-10-12 Skeid W 1-0 1237 1185 45.2% 28.7% 26.1% +9.5 24
1975-10-12 @ Mjondalen L 0-1 1185 1237 26.1% 28.7% 45.2% -9.5 16
1975-10-12 Start D 1-1 1211 1270 30.1% 28.8% 41.1% +0.7 21
1975-10-12 @ Molde D 1-1 1270 1211 41.1% 28.8% 30.1% -0.7 25
1975-10-12 Brann L 2-4 1006 1280 10.8% 26.2% 63.0% -6.6 5
1975-10-12 @ Os TF W 4-2 1280 1006 63.0% 26.2% 10.8% +6.6 25
1975-10-12 Viking D 3-3 1310 1384 28.3% 28.8% 43.0% +0.6 27
1975-10-12 @ Rosenborg D 3-3 1384 1310 43.0% 28.8% 28.3% -0.6 29
1975-10-12 Stromsgodset W 1-0 1093 1289 15.8% 27.6% 56.6% +17.6 15
1975-10-12 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1289 1093 56.6% 27.6% 15.8% -17.6 24
1975-10-19 Rosenborg W 2-0 1287 1310 35.0% 28.9% 36.0% +22.8 27
1975-10-19 @ Brann L 0-2 1310 1287 36.0% 28.9% 35.0% -22.8 27
1975-10-19 Mjondalen W 3-1 1174 1246 28.4% 28.8% 42.8% +22.5 22
1975-10-19 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1246 1174 42.8% 28.8% 28.4% -22.5 24
1975-10-19 Molde D 2-2 1176 1211 33.3% 28.9% 37.8% +0.2 17
1975-10-19 @ Skeid D 2-2 1211 1176 37.8% 28.9% 33.3% -0.2 22
1975-10-19 Os TF W 4-1 1270 999 65.3% 25.8% 9.0% +8.8 27
1975-10-19 @ Start L 1-4 999 1270 9.0% 25.8% 65.3% -8.8 5
1975-10-19 Lillestrom L 1-2 1271 1225 44.6% 28.8% 26.7% -13.4 24
1975-10-19 @ Stromsgodset W 2-1 1225 1271 26.7% 28.8% 44.6% +13.4 23
1975-10-19 Valerenga D 2-2 1383 1110 65.4% 25.7% 8.9% -3.2 30
1975-10-19 @ Viking D 2-2 1110 1383 8.9% 25.7% 65.4% +3.2 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1975-08-31 13.44% Valerenga 1060 3 @ Lillestrom 1249 1
2 1975-09-13 13.97% Molde 1196 2 @ Viking 1377 1
3 1975-10-12 15.85% @ Valerenga 1093 1 Stromsgodset 1289 0
4 1975-06-01 16.54% Fredrikstad 1160 2 @ Molde 1307 0
5 1975-06-04 16.81% Skeid 1181 1 @ Lillestrom 1324 0
6 1975-07-27 17.01% Mjondalen 1101 2 @ Molde 1242 0
7 1975-09-02 21.40% @ Skeid 1188 3 Stromsgodset 1322 1
8 1975-09-15 22.49% Mjondalen 1216 1 @ Brann 1299 0
9 1975-09-28 22.69% Mjondalen 1233 2 @ Stromsgodset 1315 1
10 1975-10-12 22.89% Fredrikstad 1159 2 @ Lillestrom 1239 1
11 1975-08-10 23.58% @ Mjondalen 1150 3 Lillestrom 1264 1
12 1975-07-27 23.75% Brann 1256 5 @ Stromsgodset 1327 2
13 1975-06-04 24.03% @ Mjondalen 1102 1 Start 1212 0
14 1975-08-03 24.15% Molde 1209 2 @ Lillestrom 1278 1
15 1975-08-31 24.91% @ Mjondalen 1201 1 Rosenborg 1303 0
16 1975-06-22 25.06% Skeid 1196 1 @ Molde 1256 0
17 1975-05-22 26.39% Fredrikstad 1158 2 @ Skeid 1207 1
18 1975-05-11 26.45% @ Start 1180 2 Brann 1269 0
19 1975-10-19 26.65% Lillestrom 1225 2 @ Stromsgodset 1271 1
20 1975-05-04 26.91% @ Stromsgodset 1228 3 Viking 1312 0
21 1975-06-14 27.17% @ Start 1197 3 Molde 1280 1
22 1975-05-03 27.82% Lillestrom 1216 2 @ Molde 1253 1
23 1975-07-28 27.93% @ Start 1227 2 Lillestrom 1304 0
24 1975-10-19 28.41% @ Fredrikstad 1174 3 Mjondalen 1246 1
25 1975-10-05 29.66% Lillestrom 1199 3 @ Skeid 1222 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1975-05-08 40.62 @ Viking 6 1273 51.70% Fredrikstad 0 1166 19.99% 28.31%
2 1975-05-04 38.83 @ Stromsgodset 3 1228 26.91% Viking 0 1312 44.37% 28.71%
3 1975-10-05 36.80 Lillestrom 3 1199 29.66% @ Skeid 0 1222 41.46% 28.87%
4 1975-04-28 34.74 Skeid 3 1212 32.62% @ Valerenga 0 1213 38.46% 28.92%
5 1975-06-01 32.64 Fredrikstad 2 1160 16.54% @ Molde 0 1307 55.59% 27.86%
6 1975-05-08 32.55 @ Lillestrom 4 1229 46.84% Mjondalen 0 1164 24.49% 28.67%
7 1975-07-27 32.34 Mjondalen 2 1101 17.01% @ Molde 0 1242 55.05% 27.94%
8 1975-05-11 31.96 Lillestrom 4 1262 47.50% @ Os TF 0 1152 23.96% 28.53%
9 1975-05-08 31.06 @ Stromsgodset 6 1266 49.02% Os TF 1 1183 22.45% 28.53%
10 1975-05-19 30.18 @ Fredrikstad 3 1128 39.42% Os TF 0 1120 31.66% 28.91%
11 1975-07-27 30.12 Brann 5 1256 23.75% @ Stromsgodset 2 1327 47.63% 28.62%
12 1975-08-31 30.06 Valerenga 3 1060 13.44% @ Lillestrom 1 1249 59.31% 27.25%
13 1975-06-01 29.27 Brann 3 1219 40.77% @ Valerenga 0 1162 30.38% 28.85%
14 1975-10-05 28.75 @ Viking 5 1358 44.79% Brann 1 1309 26.44% 28.77%
15 1975-06-14 28.67 @ Viking 3 1316 41.61% Rosenborg 0 1292 29.52% 28.87%
16 1975-07-28 28.17 Rosenborg 6 1263 38.98% @ Fredrikstad 2 1219 32.13% 28.89%
17 1975-05-11 26.97 @ Start 2 1180 26.45% Brann 0 1269 44.86% 28.69%
18 1975-08-25 26.40 Mjondalen 3 1175 44.85% @ Valerenga 0 1086 26.46% 28.69%
19 1975-07-28 26.22 @ Start 2 1227 27.93% Lillestrom 0 1304 43.32% 28.76%
20 1975-09-02 25.76 @ Skeid 3 1188 21.40% Stromsgodset 1 1322 50.28% 28.32%
21 1975-06-04 24.96 @ Rosenborg 2 1267 30.45% Stromsgodset 0 1324 40.70% 28.85%
22 1975-08-10 24.70 @ Mjondalen 3 1150 23.58% Lillestrom 1 1264 47.92% 28.50%
23 1975-06-14 23.04 @ Start 3 1197 27.17% Molde 1 1280 44.10% 28.73%
24 1975-10-19 22.81 @ Brann 2 1287 35.03% Rosenborg 0 1310 36.05% 28.93%
25 1975-10-19 22.50 @ Fredrikstad 3 1174 28.41% Mjondalen 1 1246 42.81% 28.78%