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1971 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

24 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lyn Oslo

5.28 points above expected

23 points · 17.72 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

4.69 points below expected

11 points · 15.69 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 18 9 6 3 24 25 11 +14 22.01 +1.99
2 Lyn Oslo 18 9 5 4 23 28 17 +11 17.72 +5.28
3 Viking 18 9 4 5 22 41 20 +21 22.00 +0.00
4 Fredrikstad 18 8 6 4 22 32 23 +9 18.14 +3.86
5 Stromsgodset 18 7 7 4 21 28 21 +7 19.82 +1.18
6 Hamarkameratene 18 7 7 4 21 19 15 +4 20.49 +0.51
7 Sarpsborg 18 6 4 8 16 32 27 +5 18.13 -2.13
8 Hodd 18 3 5 10 11 17 32 -15 14.31 -3.31
9 Brann 18 3 5 10 11 14 31 -17 15.69 -4.69
10 Frigg Oslo 18 4 1 13 9 16 55 -39 11.69 -2.69

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1468 24 22.01 +1.99 77.6% 7 17 20 22 24 27 33
Viking 1439 22 22.00 +0.00 55.9% 11 17 20 22 24 27 33
Fredrikstad 1365 22 18.14 +3.86 90.5% 6 13 16 18 20 24 30
Stromsgodset 1362 21 19.82 +1.18 69.3% 6 14 18 20 22 25 31
Lyn Oslo 1359 23 17.72 +5.28 95.7% 4 12 15 18 20 23 30
Hamarkameratene 1346 21 20.49 +0.51 61.8% 10 15 18 21 23 26 34
Sarpsborg 1302 16 18.13 -2.13 30.7% 6 13 16 18 20 24 32
Hodd 1235 11 14.31 -3.31 19.0% 3 9 12 14 16 19 28
Brann 1206 11 15.69 -4.69 9.6% 4 10 13 16 18 21 27
Frigg Oslo 1040 9 11.69 -2.69 24.5% 2 7 10 12 14 17 25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE FO HAM HOD LO ROS SAR STR VIK
Brann —
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-2
1.93
0-2-0
3.00
0-0-2
2.35
1-0-1
1.47
0-1-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
1.83
Fredrikstad
1-1-0
2.96
 —
2-0-0
4.05
1-1-0
2.36
0-2-0
3.11
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.44
0-1-1
2.28
Frigg Oslo
1-0-1
2.16
0-0-2
1.42
 —
1-0-1
1.35
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-2
1.99
0-1-1
1.26
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-2
1.58
1-0-1
1.13
Hamarkameratene
2-0-0
3.50
0-1-1
3.05
1-0-1
4.10
 —
0-1-1
4.08
0-2-0
2.99
0-2-0
2.41
1-1-0
3.07
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.48
Hodd
0-2-0
2.42
0-2-0
2.32
1-0-1
3.23
1-1-0
1.37
 —
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
1.56
Lyn Oslo
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
3.43
0-2-0
2.44
1-0-1
3.14
 —
0-2-0
2.12
2-0-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.29
1-0-1
1.99
Rosenborg
1-0-1
3.97
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
4.21
0-2-0
3.01
2-0-0
3.96
0-2-0
3.30
 —
2-0-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.67
Sarpsborg
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
3.51
0-1-1
2.36
2-0-0
3.00
0-0-2
2.63
0-0-2
2.26
 —
0-1-1
2.58
0-1-1
2.28
Stromsgodset
1-1-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.87
0-0-2
2.85
2-0-0
3.60
1-1-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.84
 —
0-2-0
2.28
Viking
1-0-1
3.60
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
4.35
1-0-1
2.95
2-0-0
3.90
1-0-1
3.42
1-0-1
2.74
1-1-0
3.15
0-2-0
3.13
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.45 +4.4
Allowed 0.76 -4.0
Differential 0.84 +2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.56%2.22%2.78%2.22%1.67%32.78%
110.56%6.67%5.56%4.44%3.33%2.22%32.78%
22.22%5.56%5.56%0.56%——13.89%
32.78%4.44%0.56%2.22%0.56%—10.56%
42.22%3.33%—0.56%——6.11%
5+1.67%2.22%————3.89%
Total32.78%32.78%13.89%10.56%6.11%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.52 1.52 2.25
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%50.00%
111.11%5.56%—16.67%——33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%27.78%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.72 -0.94
SD 1.00 1.41 1.66
CV 1.29 0.82 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%———5.56%38.89%
1—5.56%————5.56%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%11.11%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.28 +0.50
SD 1.93 1.53 2.41
CV 1.08 1.19 —
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%
116.67%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%61.11%
25.56%—————5.56%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%11.11%5.56%16.67%22.22%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 3.06 -2.17
SD 0.76 2.44 2.62
CV 0.85 0.80 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%11.11%——5.56%—44.44%
111.11%11.11%——5.56%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%38.89%——11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 0.83 +0.22
SD 1.26 1.25 1.80
CV 1.19 1.50 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
15.56%—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%16.67%16.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.78 -0.83
SD 1.43 1.70 2.33
CV 1.52 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%————27.78%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
2—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%50.00%5.56%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.94 +0.61
SD 1.69 0.94 1.72
CV 1.09 0.99 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%————27.78%
116.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
316.67%—————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total50.00%38.89%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.61 +0.78
SD 1.24 0.70 1.40
CV 0.90 1.14 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%22.22%—5.56%—38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%33.33%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.50 +0.28
SD 1.83 1.15 2.42
CV 1.03 0.77 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%——5.56%——22.22%
111.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.17 +0.39
SD 1.34 1.25 1.85
CV 0.86 1.07 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%————16.67%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2——16.67%———16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total22.22%50.00%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.11 +1.17
SD 1.87 0.83 2.28
CV 0.82 0.75 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 23 17.72 +5.28
2 Fredrikstad 22 18.14 +3.86
3 Rosenborg 24 22.01 +1.99
4 Stromsgodset 21 19.82 +1.18
5 Hamarkameratene 21 20.49 +0.51

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 11 15.69 -4.69
2 Hodd 11 14.31 -3.31
3 Frigg Oslo 9 11.69 -2.69
4 Sarpsborg 16 18.13 -2.13
5 Viking 22 22.00 +0.00

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 5 May 3 – May 31 1 in 57
2 Frigg Oslo 2 Jun 13 – Jun 20 1 in 21
3 Hodd 2 Oct 6 – Oct 10 1 in 18
4 Lyn Oslo 3 Sep 5 – Sep 19 1 in 16
5 Fredrikstad 3 May 31 – Jun 14 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hodd 4 May 23 – Jun 13 1 in 58
2 Sarpsborg 3 Sep 12 – Oct 6 1 in 27
3 Rosenborg 2 May 31 – Jun 6 1 in 24
4 Frigg Oslo 4 Sep 22 – Oct 17 1 in 20
5 Brann 3 Jun 14 – Aug 1 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 12 May 23 – Oct 6 1 in 297
2 Rosenborg 11 Jun 13 – Oct 17 1 in 23
3 Hamarkameratene 7 Apr 25 – Jun 6 1 in 12
4 Fredrikstad 5 May 14 – Jun 14 1 in 9
5 Viking 6 May 3 – Jun 6 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamarkameratene 6 Jun 6 – Aug 19 1 in 46
2 Viking 4 Aug 11 – Sep 13 1 in 17
3 Brann 6 Apr 28 – Jun 1 1 in 14
4 Sarpsborg 6 Aug 19 – Oct 10 1 in 14
5 Hodd 11 May 23 – Sep 19 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rosenborg29.58%23.38%16.17%11.44%7.85%5.78%3.34%1.59%0.63%0.24%
Lyn Oslo4.08%6.68%9.60%11.98%14.37%15.00%14.83%11.88%8.09%3.49%
Viking33.13%21.06%15.96%11.31%7.75%5.21%3.02%1.59%0.81%0.16%
Fredrikstad4.88%8.22%9.97%13.54%14.23%14.84%14.29%10.66%6.94%2.43%
Stromsgodset10.16%14.25%15.51%15.58%14.28%11.42%8.93%6.21%2.82%0.84%
Hamarkameratene12.70%16.57%17.43%14.92%13.14%10.90%7.42%4.54%1.85%0.53%
Sarpsborg4.43%6.97%10.44%12.78%14.49%15.05%14.99%11.27%6.67%2.91%
Hodd0.29%0.77%1.31%2.59%4.73%8.34%12.49%21.32%29.86%18.30%
Brann0.73%1.99%3.42%5.28%8.05%11.00%16.20%21.35%21.12%10.86%
Frigg Oslo0.02%0.11%0.19%0.58%1.11%2.46%4.49%9.59%21.21%60.24%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.11%
Clear Edge
46.67%27.78%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
141 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
074.47400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.60 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.53+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
30%
Rosenborg, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.6 * Some Luck: 2.6 to 3.89 * Lucky: 3.89 to 5.19 * Wild Swing: 5.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.36 * Close: 1.36 to 2.04 * Off: 2.04 to 2.72 * Way Off: 2.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.05 points
Some Luck
03.258
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.704
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.69%
Lyn Oslo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.61%
Brann
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.35
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Dominant
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Very Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.37
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.97
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.134
Well Within Noise
00.1730.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Viking 99.84% 0.16%
Rosenborg 99.76% 0.24%
Hamarkameratene 99.47% 0.53%
Stromsgodset 99.16% 0.84%
Fredrikstad 97.57% 2.43%
Sarpsborg 97.09% 2.91%
Lyn Oslo 96.51% 3.49%
Brann 89.14% 10.86%
Hodd 81.70% 18.30%
Frigg Oslo 39.76% 60.24%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1971-04-25 Viking W 3-1 1349 1341 50.4% 29.2% 20.4% +14.6 2
1971-04-25 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-3 1341 1349 20.4% 29.2% 50.4% -14.6 0
1971-04-25 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1281 1294 48.2% 29.3% 22.5% -2.2 1
1971-04-25 @ Hodd D 0-0 1294 1281 22.5% 29.3% 48.2% +2.2 1
1971-04-25 Rosenborg L 1-2 1296 1376 39.7% 29.5% 30.8% -13.7 0
1971-04-25 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1376 1296 30.8% 29.5% 39.7% +13.7 2
1971-04-26 Frigg Oslo W 7-1 1261 1217 54.0% 28.9% 17.1% +33.5 2
1971-04-26 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-7 1217 1261 17.1% 28.9% 54.0% -33.5 0
1971-04-28 Stromsgodset D 0-0 1343 1364 47.2% 29.3% 23.5% -2.0 1
1971-04-28 @ Brann D 0-0 1364 1343 23.5% 29.3% 47.2% +2.0 1
1971-05-03 Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1296 1294 49.7% 29.2% 21.1% +8.2 3
1971-05-03 @ Fredrikstad L 2-3 1294 1296 21.1% 29.2% 49.7% -8.2 2
1971-05-03 Sarpsborg L 0-4 1183 1282 37.2% 29.4% 33.4% -49.6 0
1971-05-03 @ Frigg Oslo W 4-0 1282 1183 33.4% 29.4% 37.2% +49.6 2
1971-05-03 Brann W 5-0 1327 1341 47.9% 29.3% 22.8% +42.8 2
1971-05-03 @ Viking L 0-5 1341 1327 22.8% 29.3% 47.9% -42.8 1
1971-05-04 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1389 1364 52.2% 29.1% 18.8% -2.9 3
1971-05-04 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1364 1389 18.8% 29.1% 52.2% +2.9 3
1971-05-04 Hodd W 4-1 1366 1279 57.8% 28.4% 13.8% +14.9 3
1971-05-04 @ Stromsgodset L 1-4 1279 1366 13.8% 28.4% 57.8% -14.9 1
1971-05-08 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1331 1304 52.4% 29.0% 18.5% +8.3 4
1971-05-08 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1304 1331 18.5% 29.0% 52.4% -8.3 3
1971-05-08 Rosenborg W 1-0 1370 1386 47.6% 29.3% 23.1% +9.8 4
1971-05-08 @ Viking L 0-1 1386 1370 23.1% 29.3% 47.6% -9.8 3
1971-05-09 Brann D 0-0 1264 1298 45.6% 29.4% 25.0% -1.7 2
1971-05-09 @ Hodd D 0-0 1298 1264 25.0% 29.4% 45.6% +1.7 2
1971-05-10 Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1367 1134 67.5% 25.9% 6.6% +3.2 5
1971-05-10 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1134 1367 6.6% 25.9% 67.5% -3.2 0
1971-05-10 Stromsgodset L 0-1 1286 1381 37.7% 29.4% 32.9% -14.0 2
1971-05-10 @ Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1381 1286 32.9% 29.4% 37.7% +14.0 5
1971-05-13 Rosenborg D 1-1 1131 1377 19.4% 28.3% 52.3% +2.5 1
1971-05-13 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1377 1131 52.3% 28.3% 19.4% -2.5 4
1971-05-14 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1300 1296 50.0% 29.2% 20.8% -2.2 3
1971-05-14 @ Brann D 1-1 1296 1300 20.8% 29.2% 50.0% +2.2 4
1971-05-16 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1263 1272 48.5% 29.3% 22.2% +9.5 4
1971-05-16 @ Hodd L 0-1 1272 1263 22.2% 29.3% 48.5% -9.5 2
1971-05-16 Viking L 1-4 1340 1379 44.9% 29.4% 25.7% -37.1 4
1971-05-16 @ Sarpsborg W 4-1 1379 1340 25.7% 29.4% 44.9% +37.1 6
1971-05-16 Hamarkameratene L 1-2 1395 1370 52.1% 29.1% 18.8% -17.3 5
1971-05-16 @ Stromsgodset W 2-1 1370 1395 18.8% 29.1% 52.1% +17.3 7
1971-05-23 Stromsgodset D 3-3 1298 1377 39.8% 29.5% 30.8% -0.4 5
1971-05-23 @ Fredrikstad D 3-3 1377 1298 30.8% 29.5% 39.8% +0.4 6
1971-05-23 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1387 1303 57.6% 28.5% 13.9% -3.9 8
1971-05-23 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1303 1387 13.9% 28.5% 57.6% +3.9 5
1971-05-23 Brann W 3-1 1262 1298 45.4% 29.4% 25.2% +17.1 4
1971-05-23 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1298 1262 25.2% 29.4% 45.4% -17.1 3
1971-05-23 Hodd W 4-1 1374 1272 59.0% 28.2% 12.7% +13.9 6
1971-05-23 @ Rosenborg L 1-4 1272 1374 12.7% 28.2% 59.0% -14.0 4
1971-05-23 Frigg Oslo W 4-1 1416 1133 70.0% 24.8% 5.1% +5.8 8
1971-05-23 @ Viking L 1-4 1133 1416 5.1% 24.8% 70.0% -5.8 1
1971-05-31 Rosenborg W 2-1 1297 1388 38.2% 29.4% 32.3% +11.8 7
1971-05-31 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1388 1297 32.3% 29.4% 38.2% -11.8 6
1971-05-31 Viking L 1-3 1258 1422 28.3% 29.1% 42.6% -18.5 4
1971-05-31 @ Hodd W 3-1 1422 1258 42.6% 29.1% 28.3% +18.5 10
1971-05-31 Frigg Oslo W 4-0 1378 1127 68.4% 25.6% 6.0% +10.6 8
1971-05-31 @ Stromsgodset L 0-4 1127 1378 6.0% 25.6% 68.4% -10.6 1
1971-06-01 Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1281 1383 36.6% 29.4% 34.0% -37.5 3
1971-06-01 @ Brann W 3-0 1383 1281 34.0% 29.4% 36.6% +37.5 10
1971-06-01 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1279 1307 46.4% 29.4% 24.2% +9.6 6
1971-06-01 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1307 1279 24.2% 29.4% 46.4% -9.6 5
1971-06-03 Fredrikstad L 3-4 1117 1309 24.9% 28.9% 46.2% -9.0 1
1971-06-03 @ Frigg Oslo W 4-3 1309 1117 46.2% 28.9% 24.9% +9.0 9
1971-06-04 Hodd W 4-0 1297 1240 55.2% 28.8% 16.0% +26.2 7
1971-06-04 @ Sarpsborg L 0-4 1240 1297 16.0% 28.8% 55.2% -26.2 4
1971-06-06 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1421 1289 61.3% 27.8% 10.9% -4.2 11
1971-06-06 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1289 1421 10.9% 27.8% 61.3% +4.2 7
1971-06-06 Brann L 0-1 1376 1243 61.3% 27.8% 10.9% -21.4 6
1971-06-06 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1243 1376 10.9% 27.8% 61.3% +21.4 5
1971-06-06 Stromsgodset D 2-2 1441 1388 54.8% 28.8% 16.4% -2.3 11
1971-06-06 @ Viking D 2-2 1388 1441 16.4% 28.8% 54.8% +2.3 9
1971-06-13 Frigg Oslo L 0-2 1213 1108 59.3% 28.2% 12.5% -39.1 4
1971-06-13 @ Hodd W 2-0 1108 1213 12.5% 28.2% 59.3% +39.1 3
1971-06-13 Rosenborg L 0-3 1391 1355 53.2% 29.0% 17.8% -51.2 9
1971-06-13 @ Stromsgodset W 3-0 1355 1391 17.8% 29.0% 53.2% +51.2 8
1971-06-14 Sarpsborg L 1-3 1265 1323 42.5% 29.4% 28.0% -25.1 5
1971-06-14 @ Brann W 3-1 1323 1265 28.0% 29.4% 42.5% +25.1 9
1971-06-14 Hamarkameratene W 4-0 1318 1417 37.2% 29.4% 33.4% +45.9 11
1971-06-14 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1417 1318 33.4% 29.4% 37.2% -45.9 11
1971-06-14 Viking W 2-1 1293 1438 30.7% 29.3% 40.1% +13.8 9
1971-06-14 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1438 1293 40.1% 29.3% 30.7% -13.8 11
1971-06-17 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1406 1307 58.8% 28.3% 12.9% -4.2 9
1971-06-17 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1307 1406 12.9% 28.3% 58.8% +4.2 10
1971-06-17 Fredrikstad W 6-0 1425 1364 55.5% 28.7% 15.7% +37.8 13
1971-06-17 @ Viking L 0-6 1364 1425 15.7% 28.7% 55.5% -37.8 11
1971-06-18 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1348 1339 50.5% 29.2% 20.3% -2.3 10
1971-06-18 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1339 1348 20.3% 29.2% 50.5% +2.3 10
1971-06-20 Brann W 1-0 1147 1240 38.0% 29.4% 32.6% +12.6 5
1971-06-20 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1240 1147 32.6% 29.4% 38.0% -12.6 5
1971-06-20 Hodd D 0-0 1371 1174 65.4% 26.7% 7.9% -5.5 12
1971-06-20 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1174 1371 7.9% 26.7% 65.4% +5.5 5
1971-08-01 Hodd D 0-0 1326 1180 62.3% 27.6% 10.2% -4.9 12
1971-08-01 @ Fredrikstad D 0-0 1180 1326 10.2% 27.6% 62.3% +4.9 6
1971-08-01 Brann W 3-1 1342 1227 60.0% 28.1% 11.9% +9.3 12
1971-08-01 @ Stromsgodset L 1-3 1227 1342 11.9% 28.1% 60.0% -9.3 5
1971-08-02 Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1160 1311 29.9% 29.2% 40.9% -19.3 5
1971-08-02 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-1 1311 1160 40.9% 29.2% 29.9% +19.3 12
1971-08-02 Sarpsborg W 3-0 1402 1346 55.1% 28.8% 16.1% +20.2 11
1971-08-02 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1346 1402 16.1% 28.8% 55.1% -20.2 10
1971-08-02 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1462 1365 58.7% 28.3% 13.1% +6.2 15
1971-08-02 @ Viking L 0-1 1365 1462 13.1% 28.3% 58.7% -6.2 12
1971-08-11 Viking W 1-0 1218 1469 18.9% 28.2% 52.9% +18.4 7
1971-08-11 @ Brann L 0-1 1469 1218 52.9% 28.2% 18.9% -18.4 15
1971-08-11 Rosenborg D 1-1 1359 1422 42.0% 29.5% 28.6% -1.0 13
1971-08-11 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1422 1359 28.6% 29.5% 42.0% +1.0 12
1971-08-11 Stromsgodset L 0-1 1185 1351 28.0% 29.1% 42.9% -11.3 6
1971-08-11 @ Hodd W 1-0 1351 1185 42.9% 29.1% 28.0% +11.3 14
1971-08-11 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1330 1321 50.5% 29.2% 20.3% +8.9 14
1971-08-11 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1321 1330 20.3% 29.2% 50.5% -8.9 12
1971-08-11 Frigg Oslo W 7-1 1326 1140 64.8% 26.9% 8.3% +17.7 12
1971-08-11 @ Sarpsborg L 1-7 1140 1326 8.3% 26.9% 64.8% -17.6 5
1971-08-19 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1313 1343 46.0% 29.4% 24.6% +19.4 14
1971-08-19 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1343 1313 24.6% 29.4% 46.0% -19.4 12
1971-08-19 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1123 1358 20.3% 28.4% 51.2% +17.9 7
1971-08-19 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1358 1123 51.2% 28.4% 20.3% -17.9 13
1971-08-22 Hodd D 2-2 1236 1173 55.7% 28.7% 15.6% -2.4 8
1971-08-22 @ Brann D 2-2 1173 1236 15.6% 28.7% 55.7% +2.4 7
1971-08-22 Viking W 1-0 1423 1450 46.4% 29.4% 24.2% +10.2 14
1971-08-22 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1450 1423 24.2% 29.4% 46.4% -10.2 15
1971-08-22 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1362 1339 51.9% 29.1% 19.0% -2.9 15
1971-08-22 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1339 1362 19.0% 29.1% 51.9% +2.8 15
1971-09-02 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1433 1141 70.5% 24.6% 4.9% +2.2 16
1971-09-02 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1141 1433 4.9% 24.6% 70.5% -2.2 7
1971-09-04 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1440 1324 60.1% 28.0% 11.8% -3.0 16
1971-09-04 @ Viking D 2-2 1324 1440 11.8% 28.0% 60.1% +3.0 13
1971-09-05 Brann W 2-0 1332 1234 58.7% 28.3% 13.0% +11.6 16
1971-09-05 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1234 1332 13.0% 28.3% 58.7% -11.6 8
1971-09-05 Stromsgodset W 4-1 1340 1359 47.4% 29.3% 23.3% +22.8 15
1971-09-05 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-4 1359 1340 23.3% 29.3% 47.4% -22.8 15
1971-09-05 Hodd W 1-0 1342 1176 63.6% 27.2% 9.2% +4.5 17
1971-09-05 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1176 1342 9.2% 27.2% 63.6% -4.5 7
1971-09-12 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1222 1347 33.5% 29.4% 37.1% -12.8 8
1971-09-12 @ Brann W 1-0 1347 1222 37.1% 29.4% 33.5% +12.8 19
1971-09-12 Rosenborg L 0-3 1171 1435 17.7% 28.1% 54.2% -21.5 7
1971-09-12 @ Hodd W 3-0 1435 1171 54.2% 28.1% 17.7% +21.5 18
1971-09-12 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1327 1363 45.3% 29.4% 25.3% -16.2 13
1971-09-12 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1363 1327 25.3% 29.4% 45.3% +16.2 17
1971-09-12 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1337 1344 48.7% 29.3% 22.0% -16.3 15
1971-09-12 @ Stromsgodset W 2-1 1344 1337 22.0% 29.3% 48.7% +16.3 18
1971-09-13 Viking W 1-0 1138 1437 15.0% 27.5% 57.5% +19.9 9
1971-09-13 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1437 1138 57.5% 27.5% 15.0% -19.9 16
1971-09-19 Brann W 2-0 1379 1209 63.8% 27.2% 9.0% +8.3 19
1971-09-19 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1209 1379 9.0% 27.2% 63.8% -8.3 8
1971-09-19 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1457 1360 58.6% 28.3% 13.1% +6.2 20
1971-09-19 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1360 1457 13.1% 28.3% 58.6% -6.2 18
1971-09-19 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1311 1360 43.8% 29.4% 26.8% -14.8 13
1971-09-19 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1360 1311 26.8% 29.4% 43.8% +14.8 21
1971-09-19 Hodd W 5-1 1417 1150 69.3% 25.2% 5.5% +8.1 18
1971-09-19 @ Viking L 1-5 1150 1417 5.5% 25.2% 69.3% -8.1 7
1971-09-22 Stromsgodset L 0-3 1158 1320 28.5% 29.2% 42.3% -31.3 9
1971-09-22 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-0 1320 1158 42.3% 29.2% 28.5% +31.3 17
1971-10-03 Frigg Oslo W 3-1 1201 1127 56.7% 28.6% 14.7% +11.1 10
1971-10-03 @ Brann L 1-3 1127 1201 14.7% 28.6% 56.7% -11.1 9
1971-10-06 Viking D 2-2 1354 1425 40.8% 29.5% 29.7% -0.6 19
1971-10-06 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1425 1354 29.7% 29.5% 40.8% +0.6 19
1971-10-06 Hamarkameratene W 4-1 1142 1388 19.4% 28.3% 52.3% +42.2 9
1971-10-06 @ Hodd L 1-4 1388 1142 52.3% 28.3% 19.4% -42.1 19
1971-10-06 Rosenborg D 2-2 1374 1463 38.5% 29.5% 32.0% -0.3 22
1971-10-06 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1463 1374 32.0% 29.5% 38.5% +0.3 21
1971-10-06 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1352 1296 55.1% 28.8% 16.1% +7.0 19
1971-10-06 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1296 1352 16.1% 28.8% 55.1% -7.0 13
1971-10-10 Hodd L 0-5 1116 1184 41.3% 29.5% 29.3% -66.2 9
1971-10-10 @ Frigg Oslo W 5-0 1184 1116 29.3% 29.5% 41.3% +66.2 11
1971-10-10 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1345 1353 48.7% 29.3% 22.1% -2.2 20
1971-10-10 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1353 1345 22.1% 29.3% 48.7% +2.2 20
1971-10-10 Brann D 3-3 1289 1212 57.0% 28.6% 14.5% -2.1 14
1971-10-10 @ Sarpsborg D 3-3 1212 1289 14.5% 28.6% 57.0% +2.1 11
1971-10-10 Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1426 1374 54.8% 28.8% 16.4% +12.2 21
1971-10-10 @ Viking L 1-3 1374 1426 16.4% 28.8% 54.8% -12.2 22
1971-10-13 Stromsgodset D 0-0 1463 1359 59.2% 28.2% 12.6% -4.3 22
1971-10-13 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1359 1463 12.6% 28.2% 59.2% +4.3 20
1971-10-17 Rosenborg L 0-1 1214 1459 19.5% 28.3% 52.2% -8.5 11
1971-10-17 @ Brann W 1-0 1459 1214 52.2% 28.3% 19.5% +8.5 24
1971-10-17 Frigg Oslo W 7-1 1355 1050 71.1% 24.3% 4.6% +9.6 22
1971-10-17 @ Fredrikstad L 1-7 1050 1355 4.6% 24.3% 71.1% -9.6 9
1971-10-17 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1250 1287 45.2% 29.4% 25.3% -15.3 11
1971-10-17 @ Hodd W 2-1 1287 1250 25.3% 29.4% 45.2% +15.3 16
1971-10-17 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1362 1343 51.5% 29.1% 19.4% -2.8 23
1971-10-17 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1343 1362 19.4% 29.1% 51.5% +2.8 21
1971-10-17 Viking D 1-1 1363 1438 40.3% 29.5% 30.2% -0.7 21
1971-10-17 @ Stromsgodset D 1-1 1438 1363 30.2% 29.5% 40.3% +0.7 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1971-06-06 10.87% Brann 1243 1 @ Rosenborg 1376 0
2 1971-06-13 12.50% Frigg Oslo 1108 2 @ Hodd 1213 0
3 1971-09-13 14.98% @ Frigg Oslo 1138 1 Viking 1437 0
4 1971-06-13 17.80% Rosenborg 1355 3 @ Stromsgodset 1391 0
5 1971-05-16 18.83% Hamarkameratene 1370 2 @ Stromsgodset 1395 1
6 1971-08-11 18.89% @ Brann 1218 1 Viking 1469 0
7 1971-10-06 19.37% @ Hodd 1142 4 Hamarkameratene 1388 1
8 1971-08-19 20.34% @ Frigg Oslo 1123 1 Hamarkameratene 1358 0
9 1971-09-12 21.98% Fredrikstad 1344 2 @ Stromsgodset 1337 1
10 1971-09-12 25.26% Hamarkameratene 1363 1 @ Sarpsborg 1327 0
11 1971-10-17 25.34% Sarpsborg 1287 2 @ Hodd 1250 1
12 1971-05-16 25.68% Viking 1379 4 @ Sarpsborg 1340 1
13 1971-09-19 26.79% Lyn Oslo 1360 2 @ Sarpsborg 1311 1
14 1971-06-14 28.02% Sarpsborg 1323 3 @ Brann 1265 1
15 1971-10-10 29.26% Hodd 1184 5 @ Frigg Oslo 1116 0
16 1971-06-14 30.69% @ Lyn Oslo 1293 2 Viking 1438 1
17 1971-04-25 30.84% Rosenborg 1376 2 @ Sarpsborg 1296 1
18 1971-05-10 32.87% Stromsgodset 1381 1 @ Lyn Oslo 1286 0
19 1971-05-03 33.40% Sarpsborg 1282 4 @ Frigg Oslo 1183 0
20 1971-06-01 34.00% Hamarkameratene 1383 3 @ Brann 1281 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1971-10-10 66.19 Hodd 5 1184 29.26% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1116 41.28% 29.46%
2 1971-06-13 51.19 Rosenborg 3 1355 17.80% @ Stromsgodset 0 1391 53.22% 28.98%
3 1971-05-03 49.56 Sarpsborg 4 1282 33.40% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1183 37.16% 29.44%
4 1971-06-14 45.93 @ Fredrikstad 4 1318 37.16% Hamarkameratene 0 1417 33.40% 29.44%
5 1971-05-03 42.76 @ Viking 5 1327 47.91% Brann 0 1341 22.77% 29.32%
6 1971-10-06 42.15 @ Hodd 4 1142 19.37% Hamarkameratene 1 1388 52.32% 28.31%
7 1971-06-13 39.12 Frigg Oslo 2 1108 12.50% @ Hodd 0 1213 59.31% 28.19%
8 1971-06-17 37.83 @ Viking 6 1425 55.54% Fredrikstad 0 1364 15.72% 28.74%
9 1971-06-01 37.49 Hamarkameratene 3 1383 34.00% @ Brann 0 1281 36.57% 29.43%
10 1971-05-16 37.12 Viking 4 1379 25.68% @ Sarpsborg 1 1340 44.91% 29.41%
11 1971-04-26 33.46 @ Lyn Oslo 7 1261 53.98% Frigg Oslo 1 1217 17.11% 28.91%
12 1971-09-22 31.29 Stromsgodset 3 1320 42.32% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1158 28.52% 29.16%
13 1971-06-04 26.19 @ Sarpsborg 4 1297 55.25% Hodd 0 1240 15.98% 28.77%
14 1971-06-14 25.10 Sarpsborg 3 1323 28.02% @ Brann 1 1265 42.53% 29.45%
15 1971-09-05 22.79 @ Hamarkameratene 4 1340 47.36% Stromsgodset 1 1359 23.30% 29.34%
16 1971-09-12 21.48 Rosenborg 3 1435 54.20% @ Hodd 0 1171 17.74% 28.06%
17 1971-06-06 21.44 Brann 1 1243 10.87% @ Rosenborg 0 1376 61.34% 27.79%
18 1971-08-02 20.17 @ Rosenborg 3 1402 55.12% Sarpsborg 0 1346 16.10% 28.79%
19 1971-09-13 19.91 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1138 14.98% Viking 0 1437 57.50% 27.52%
20 1971-08-19 19.41 @ Fredrikstad 2 1313 45.97% Sarpsborg 0 1343 24.65% 29.39%
21 1971-08-02 19.30 Lyn Oslo 3 1311 40.90% @ Frigg Oslo 1 1160 29.87% 29.22%
22 1971-05-31 18.54 Viking 3 1422 42.57% @ Hodd 1 1258 28.29% 29.14%
23 1971-08-11 18.42 @ Brann 1 1218 18.89% Viking 0 1469 52.88% 28.24%
24 1971-08-19 17.91 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1123 20.34% Hamarkameratene 0 1358 51.22% 28.44%
25 1971-08-11 17.65 @ Sarpsborg 7 1326 64.77% Frigg Oslo 1 1140 8.34% 26.89%