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1970 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Stromsgodset

25 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Brann

4.95 points above expected

23 points · 18.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Skeid

5.18 points below expected

11 points · 16.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Stromsgodset 18 11 3 4 25 36 21 +15 22.17 +2.83
2 Rosenborg 18 10 4 4 24 15 5 +10 21.99 +2.01
3 Hamarkameratene 18 10 3 5 23 31 15 +16 20.98 +2.02
4 Brann 18 9 5 4 23 18 11 +7 18.05 +4.95
5 Sarpsborg 18 9 3 6 21 21 21 0 18.00 +3.00
6 Viking 18 8 3 7 19 27 20 +7 18.55 +0.45
7 Fredrikstad 18 5 6 7 16 16 21 -5 18.07 -2.07
8 Hodd 18 4 3 11 11 20 27 -7 13.91 -2.91
9 Skeid 18 4 3 11 11 16 23 -7 16.18 -5.18
10 Pors Grenland 18 3 1 14 7 10 46 -36 12.10 -5.10

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Stromsgodset 1500 25 22.17 +2.83 83.0% 9 16 20 22 25 28 34
Rosenborg 1497 24 21.99 +2.01 75.3% 8 16 20 22 24 28 33
Hamarkameratene 1453 23 20.98 +2.02 75.8% 7 15 19 21 23 27 34
Brann 1447 23 18.05 +4.95 93.9% 5 12 16 18 20 24 31
Viking 1435 19 18.55 +0.45 60.3% 5 13 16 19 21 24 32
Sarpsborg 1347 21 18.00 +3.00 83.1% 5 12 16 18 20 24 32
Fredrikstad 1340 16 18.07 -2.07 33.1% 7 12 16 18 20 24 30
Skeid 1315 11 16.18 -5.18 9.3% 4 10 14 16 19 22 28
Hodd 1314 11 13.91 -2.91 24.9% 2 8 12 14 16 20 26
Pors Grenland 1063 7 12.10 -5.10 8.1% 1 7 10 12 14 18 26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE HAM HOD PG ROS SAR SKE STR VIK
Brann —
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.59
0-1-1
2.12
0-1-1
3.02
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
1.99
1-0-1
2.70
Fredrikstad
0-1-1
2.89
 —
0-2-0
2.23
1-1-0
3.40
1-0-1
4.11
1-0-1
2.08
0-1-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.23
1-1-0
1.98
0-0-2
2.69
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
3.06
0-2-0
3.37
 —
1-0-1
3.78
2-0-0
4.09
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.42
1-1-0
3.86
1-0-1
2.40
2-0-0
2.89
Hodd
0-0-2
2.22
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
1.83
 —
2-0-0
3.22
0-1-1
1.61
0-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
1.87
1-0-1
1.67
Pors Grenland
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-2
1.52
0-0-2
2.38
 —
0-0-2
1.78
1-0-1
1.68
1-0-1
2.01
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
2.07
Rosenborg
1-1-0
3.48
1-0-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.81
1-1-0
4.00
2-0-0
3.83
 —
0-1-1
3.61
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
3.65
Sarpsborg
1-1-0
2.58
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.18
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.92
1-1-0
1.99
 —
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
2.84
Skeid
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.37
0-1-1
1.74
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.59
0-0-2
2.13
1-0-1
2.54
 —
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
2.58
Stromsgodset
0-1-1
3.61
0-1-1
3.62
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
4.21
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.81
 —
1-1-0
3.26
Viking
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
2.91
0-0-2
2.71
1-0-1
3.94
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +4.9
Allowed 0.66 -4.8
Differential 0.81 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%13.89%8.89%2.78%0.56%1.11%37.22%
113.89%5.56%6.67%1.67%1.67%0.56%30.00%
28.89%6.67%3.33%1.11%1.11%—21.11%
32.78%1.67%1.11%—0.56%—6.11%
40.56%1.67%1.11%0.56%——3.89%
5+1.11%0.56%————1.67%
Total37.22%30.00%21.11%6.11%3.89%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.89
CV 1.10 1.10 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
122.22%11.11%5.56%———38.89%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%33.33%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.61 +0.39
SD 0.91 0.85 1.38
CV 0.91 1.39 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%16.67%———38.89%
116.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.17 -0.28
SD 0.83 1.10 1.23
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
116.67%5.56%————22.22%
211.11%———5.56%—16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.83 +0.89
SD 1.81 1.15 2.17
CV 1.05 1.38 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
111.11%—16.67%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%11.11%38.89%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.50 -0.39
SD 1.49 1.34 2.03
CV 1.34 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%55.56%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%16.67%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 2.56 -2.00
SD 0.70 2.06 2.30
CV 1.27 0.81 —
Max 2 7 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%16.67%5.56%———44.44%
133.33%—————33.33%
216.67%—————16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total77.78%16.67%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 0.28 +0.56
SD 0.92 0.57 1.29
CV 1.11 2.07 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%22.22%—5.56%——33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 0.92 0.99 1.37
CV 0.79 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%16.67%5.56%——50.00%
15.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
2———————
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.28 -0.39
SD 1.23 0.83 1.69
CV 1.39 0.65 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%———5.56%—16.67%
216.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.17 +0.83
SD 1.78 1.15 1.98
CV 0.89 0.99 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
216.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%27.78%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.11 +0.39
SD 1.20 1.08 1.72
CV 0.80 0.97 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 23 18.05 +4.95
2 Sarpsborg 21 18.00 +3.00
3 Stromsgodset 25 22.17 +2.83
4 Hamarkameratene 23 20.98 +2.02
5 Rosenborg 24 21.99 +2.01

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Skeid 11 16.18 -5.18
2 Pors Grenland 7 12.10 -5.10
3 Hodd 11 13.91 -2.91
4 Fredrikstad 16 18.07 -2.07
5 Viking 19 18.55 +0.45

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 6 Aug 3 – Sep 20 1 in 229
2 Sarpsborg 4 Apr 27 – May 19 1 in 120
3 Fredrikstad 4 Aug 23 – Sep 27 1 in 46
4 Hamarkameratene 3 May 16 – May 31 1 in 17
5 Hodd 2 Oct 11 – Oct 18 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pors Grenland 9 Aug 3 – Oct 18 1 in 76
2 Fredrikstad 3 Jun 22 – Aug 3 1 in 46
3 Hodd 6 Aug 2 – Sep 27 1 in 26
4 Sarpsborg 2 May 24 – May 29 1 in 22
5 Skeid 3 Apr 27 – May 10 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 9 Aug 3 – Oct 18 1 in 76
2 Fredrikstad 6 Aug 12 – Sep 27 1 in 38
3 Sarpsborg 4 Apr 27 – May 19 1 in 15
4 Hodd 3 May 10 – May 24 1 in 8
5 Pors Grenland 3 May 10 – May 24 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredrikstad 6 Apr 27 – Jun 1 1 in 31
2 Skeid 5 Apr 27 – May 25 1 in 13
3 Sarpsborg 4 Aug 3 – Aug 23 1 in 12
4 Stromsgodset 3 May 10 – May 24 1 in 10
5 Rosenborg 3 May 9 – May 24 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Stromsgodset31.68%21.67%15.59%11.67%8.27%5.00%3.31%1.84%0.76%0.21%
Rosenborg27.43%22.72%15.87%12.65%7.98%5.79%3.93%2.12%1.23%0.28%
Hamarkameratene21.28%19.30%17.34%13.29%10.07%7.86%5.25%3.19%1.81%0.61%
Brann4.40%8.18%10.78%12.95%14.30%14.55%13.21%11.24%7.26%3.13%
Sarpsborg3.88%7.57%10.34%11.71%14.42%14.42%13.92%11.91%8.14%3.69%
Viking5.65%9.34%12.63%13.96%14.58%14.08%12.16%9.12%6.01%2.47%
Fredrikstad3.91%6.93%10.02%12.05%13.54%14.40%14.87%12.32%8.40%3.56%
Hodd0.30%0.89%1.65%3.24%5.17%7.86%11.59%17.58%27.01%24.71%
Skeid1.43%3.17%5.37%7.37%9.70%12.38%15.54%18.47%16.70%9.87%
Pors Grenland0.04%0.23%0.41%1.11%1.97%3.66%6.22%12.21%22.68%51.47%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.44%
Slight Edge
47.78%18.89%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.4
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Stromsgodset, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.83 * Some Luck: 2.83 to 4.25 * Lucky: 4.25 to 5.67 * Wild Swing: 5.67 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.46 * Close: 1.46 to 2.19 * Off: 2.19 to 2.92 * Way Off: 2.92 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.40 points
Some Luck
03.549
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.834
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.89%
Brann
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.14%
Pors Grenland
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.51
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Dominant
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.94
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.062
Well Within Noise
00.1720.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Stromsgodset 99.03% 0.97%
Rosenborg 98.49% 1.51%
Hamarkameratene 97.58% 2.42%
Viking 91.52% 8.48%
Brann 89.61% 10.39%
Sarpsborg 88.17% 11.83%
Fredrikstad 88.04% 11.96%
Skeid 73.43% 26.57%
Hodd 48.28% 51.72%
Pors Grenland 25.85% 74.15%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1970-04-27 Brann D 0-0 1406 1362 56.4% 19.9% 23.7% -3.1 1
1970-04-27 @ Fredrikstad D 0-0 1362 1406 23.7% 19.9% 56.4% +3.1 1
1970-04-27 Stromsgodset L 1-3 1327 1417 38.9% 20.0% 41.1% -24.7 0
1970-04-27 @ Hodd W 3-1 1417 1327 41.1% 20.0% 38.9% +24.7 2
1970-04-27 Rosenborg L 0-2 1313 1420 36.5% 20.0% 43.5% -27.2 0
1970-04-27 @ Pors Grenland W 2-0 1420 1313 43.5% 20.0% 36.5% +27.1 2
1970-04-27 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1389 1355 55.1% 20.0% 24.9% -19.3 0
1970-04-27 @ Skeid W 2-1 1355 1389 24.9% 20.0% 55.1% +19.3 2
1970-04-27 Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1377 1345 55.0% 20.0% 25.1% -38.5 0
1970-04-27 @ Viking W 2-0 1345 1377 25.1% 20.0% 55.0% +38.5 2
1970-05-03 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1383 1403 48.6% 20.0% 31.4% -1.6 3
1970-05-03 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1403 1383 31.4% 20.0% 48.6% +1.6 2
1970-05-03 Viking W 2-1 1374 1338 55.4% 20.0% 24.6% +9.8 4
1970-05-03 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1338 1374 24.6% 20.0% 55.4% -9.8 0
1970-05-03 Pors Grenland W 7-1 1442 1286 66.5% 19.6% 13.9% +27.1 4
1970-05-03 @ Stromsgodset L 1-7 1286 1442 13.9% 19.6% 66.5% -27.1 0
1970-05-04 Hodd W 2-0 1365 1302 58.3% 19.9% 21.8% +17.6 3
1970-05-04 @ Brann L 0-2 1302 1365 21.8% 19.9% 58.3% -17.6 0
1970-05-04 Skeid W 1-0 1447 1369 59.8% 19.8% 20.3% +8.8 4
1970-05-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1369 1447 20.3% 19.8% 59.8% -8.8 0
1970-05-08 Sarpsborg L 2-3 1405 1384 53.6% 20.0% 26.4% -17.8 2
1970-05-08 @ Fredrikstad W 3-2 1384 1405 26.4% 20.0% 53.6% +17.8 6
1970-05-09 Rosenborg D 0-0 1328 1456 33.7% 20.0% 46.3% +1.2 1
1970-05-09 @ Viking D 0-0 1456 1328 46.3% 20.0% 33.7% -1.2 5
1970-05-10 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1284 1382 37.9% 20.0% 42.1% +16.1 2
1970-05-10 @ Hodd L 0-1 1382 1284 42.1% 20.0% 37.9% -16.1 3
1970-05-10 Skeid W 2-1 1259 1361 37.3% 20.0% 42.7% +15.4 2
1970-05-10 @ Pors Grenland L 1-2 1361 1259 42.7% 20.0% 37.3% -15.4 0
1970-05-10 Brann D 0-0 1469 1382 60.6% 19.8% 19.5% -4.0 5
1970-05-10 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1382 1469 19.5% 19.8% 60.6% +4.0 4
1970-05-16 Hodd D 2-2 1387 1300 60.7% 19.8% 19.5% -2.7 3
1970-05-16 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1300 1387 19.5% 19.8% 60.7% +2.7 3
1970-05-16 Stromsgodset W 4-1 1365 1465 37.6% 20.0% 42.4% +37.5 5
1970-05-16 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-4 1465 1365 42.4% 20.0% 37.6% -37.5 5
1970-05-16 Viking D 1-1 1274 1330 43.9% 20.0% 36.1% -0.6 3
1970-05-16 @ Pors Grenland D 1-1 1330 1274 36.1% 20.0% 43.9% +0.6 2
1970-05-19 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1455 1402 57.3% 19.9% 22.8% -21.2 5
1970-05-19 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1402 1455 22.8% 19.9% 57.3% +21.2 8
1970-05-19 Brann D 1-1 1345 1386 45.8% 20.0% 34.2% -0.9 1
1970-05-19 @ Skeid D 1-1 1386 1345 34.2% 20.0% 45.8% +1.0 5
1970-05-24 Rosenborg D 0-0 1303 1434 33.3% 20.0% 46.7% +1.2 4
1970-05-24 @ Hodd D 0-0 1434 1303 46.7% 20.0% 33.3% -1.2 6
1970-05-24 Pors Grenland L 0-1 1423 1274 66.1% 19.6% 14.3% -24.5 8
1970-05-24 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1274 1423 14.3% 19.6% 66.1% +24.5 5
1970-05-24 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1427 1384 56.2% 19.9% 23.9% -2.1 6
1970-05-24 @ Stromsgodset D 2-2 1384 1427 23.9% 19.9% 56.2% +2.1 4
1970-05-25 Hamarkameratene L 0-3 1387 1403 49.2% 20.0% 30.8% -50.5 5
1970-05-25 @ Brann W 3-0 1403 1387 30.8% 20.0% 49.2% +50.5 7
1970-05-25 Skeid W 2-1 1330 1344 49.4% 20.0% 30.6% +11.8 4
1970-05-25 @ Viking L 1-2 1344 1330 30.6% 20.0% 49.4% -11.8 1
1970-05-29 Stromsgodset L 0-2 1399 1425 47.8% 20.0% 32.2% -33.9 8
1970-05-29 @ Sarpsborg W 2-0 1425 1399 32.2% 20.0% 47.8% +33.9 8
1970-05-31 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1298 1453 30.2% 19.9% 49.9% -12.3 5
1970-05-31 @ Pors Grenland W 1-0 1453 1298 49.9% 19.9% 30.2% +12.3 9
1970-05-31 Hodd W 1-0 1333 1304 54.5% 20.0% 25.5% +10.7 3
1970-05-31 @ Skeid L 0-1 1304 1333 25.5% 20.0% 54.5% -10.7 4
1970-06-01 Fredrikstad W 2-0 1433 1386 56.5% 19.9% 23.5% +18.8 8
1970-06-01 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1386 1433 23.5% 19.9% 56.5% -18.8 4
1970-06-01 Brann W 2-1 1342 1337 51.8% 20.0% 28.2% +11.0 6
1970-06-01 @ Viking L 1-2 1337 1342 28.2% 20.0% 51.8% -11.0 5
1970-06-07 Sarpsborg L 0-2 1294 1365 41.6% 20.0% 38.4% -30.1 4
1970-06-07 @ Hodd W 2-0 1365 1294 38.4% 20.0% 41.6% +30.1 10
1970-06-07 Viking W 1-0 1459 1353 62.5% 19.8% 17.8% +7.8 10
1970-06-07 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1353 1459 17.8% 19.8% 62.5% -7.8 6
1970-06-08 Rosenborg L 0-1 1326 1451 34.0% 20.0% 46.0% -13.6 5
1970-06-08 @ Brann W 1-0 1451 1326 46.0% 20.0% 34.0% +13.6 10
1970-06-08 Skeid D 1-1 1466 1343 63.9% 19.7% 16.4% -4.2 10
1970-06-08 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1343 1466 16.4% 19.7% 63.9% +4.2 4
1970-06-11 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1347 1368 48.6% 20.0% 31.4% -18.2 4
1970-06-11 @ Skeid W 1-0 1368 1347 31.4% 20.0% 48.6% +18.2 6
1970-06-12 Stromsgodset W 1-0 1465 1467 50.9% 20.0% 29.1% +11.9 12
1970-06-12 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1467 1465 29.1% 20.0% 50.9% -12.0 10
1970-06-12 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1395 1461 42.3% 20.0% 37.7% +14.8 12
1970-06-12 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1461 1395 37.7% 20.0% 42.3% -14.8 10
1970-06-14 Brann L 0-3 1286 1312 47.8% 20.0% 32.2% -49.2 5
1970-06-14 @ Pors Grenland W 3-0 1312 1286 32.2% 20.0% 47.8% +49.2 7
1970-06-14 Hodd W 2-0 1345 1263 60.2% 19.8% 20.0% +16.3 8
1970-06-14 @ Viking L 0-2 1263 1345 20.0% 19.8% 60.2% -16.3 4
1970-06-21 Rosenborg W 1-0 1447 1477 47.2% 20.0% 32.7% +13.2 12
1970-06-21 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1477 1447 32.7% 20.0% 47.2% -13.2 12
1970-06-21 Pors Grenland W 2-0 1247 1237 52.4% 20.0% 27.6% +21.6 6
1970-06-21 @ Hodd L 0-2 1237 1247 27.6% 20.0% 52.4% -21.6 5
1970-06-22 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1362 1410 44.8% 20.0% 35.1% -17.0 7
1970-06-22 @ Brann W 1-0 1410 1362 35.1% 20.0% 44.8% +17.0 14
1970-06-22 Viking L 0-2 1386 1362 54.0% 20.0% 26.0% -37.9 6
1970-06-22 @ Fredrikstad W 2-0 1362 1386 26.0% 20.0% 54.0% +37.9 10
1970-06-22 Stromsgodset L 0-2 1329 1455 34.0% 20.0% 46.0% -25.6 4
1970-06-22 @ Skeid W 2-0 1455 1329 46.0% 20.0% 34.0% +25.6 12
1970-06-26 Pors Grenland L 1-2 1348 1215 64.7% 19.7% 15.6% -22.6 6
1970-06-26 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1215 1348 15.6% 19.7% 64.7% +22.6 7
1970-08-02 Viking W 4-2 1460 1399 58.0% 19.9% 22.1% +13.8 14
1970-08-02 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-4 1399 1460 22.1% 19.9% 58.0% -13.8 10
1970-08-02 Hodd W 4-3 1481 1269 70.3% 19.3% 10.5% +4.2 14
1970-08-02 @ Stromsgodset L 3-4 1269 1481 10.5% 19.3% 70.3% -4.2 6
1970-08-03 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1345 1325 53.5% 20.0% 26.6% +11.1 9
1970-08-03 @ Brann L 0-1 1325 1345 26.6% 20.0% 53.5% -11.1 6
1970-08-03 Pors Grenland W 1-0 1464 1238 71.1% 19.2% 9.7% +4.5 14
1970-08-03 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1238 1464 9.7% 19.2% 71.1% -4.5 7
1970-08-03 Skeid L 0-3 1427 1304 63.9% 19.7% 16.4% -64.9 14
1970-08-03 @ Sarpsborg W 3-0 1304 1427 16.4% 19.7% 63.9% +64.9 6
1970-08-12 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1314 1474 29.6% 19.9% 50.4% +1.9 7
1970-08-12 @ Fredrikstad D 0-0 1474 1314 50.4% 19.9% 29.6% -1.9 15
1970-08-12 Brann L 1-2 1264 1356 38.8% 20.0% 41.2% -14.2 6
1970-08-12 @ Hodd W 2-1 1356 1264 41.2% 20.0% 38.8% +14.2 11
1970-08-12 Stromsgodset L 1-3 1233 1485 19.7% 19.6% 60.7% -13.9 7
1970-08-12 @ Pors Grenland W 3-1 1485 1233 60.7% 19.6% 19.7% +13.9 16
1970-08-12 Rosenborg L 0-2 1369 1468 37.6% 20.0% 42.4% -27.8 6
1970-08-12 @ Skeid W 2-0 1468 1369 42.4% 20.0% 37.6% +27.8 16
1970-08-12 Sarpsborg W 3-2 1386 1362 54.0% 20.0% 26.1% +9.7 12
1970-08-12 @ Viking L 2-3 1362 1386 26.1% 20.0% 54.0% -9.7 14
1970-08-16 Hodd W 4-1 1472 1250 70.8% 19.2% 10.0% +10.6 17
1970-08-16 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-4 1250 1472 10.0% 19.2% 70.8% -10.6 6
1970-08-16 Pors Grenland W 4-1 1341 1220 63.8% 19.7% 16.5% +16.9 8
1970-08-16 @ Skeid L 1-4 1220 1341 16.5% 19.7% 63.8% -16.9 7
1970-08-17 Stromsgodset W 1-0 1370 1499 33.6% 20.0% 46.4% +17.5 13
1970-08-17 @ Brann L 0-1 1499 1370 46.4% 20.0% 33.6% -17.5 16
1970-08-17 Viking W 1-0 1496 1395 62.0% 19.8% 18.2% +8.0 18
1970-08-17 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1395 1496 18.2% 19.8% 62.0% -8.0 12
1970-08-17 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1352 1316 55.4% 20.0% 24.7% -2.6 15
1970-08-17 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1316 1352 24.7% 20.0% 55.4% +2.6 8
1970-08-23 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1240 1319 40.5% 20.0% 39.5% -14.8 6
1970-08-23 @ Hodd W 2-1 1319 1240 39.5% 20.0% 40.5% +14.8 10
1970-08-23 Rosenborg D 0-0 1350 1504 30.2% 19.9% 49.8% +1.8 16
1970-08-23 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1504 1350 49.8% 19.9% 30.2% -1.8 19
1970-08-23 Hamarkameratene W 4-2 1481 1482 51.0% 20.0% 29.0% +17.4 18
1970-08-23 @ Stromsgodset L 2-4 1482 1481 29.0% 20.0% 51.0% -17.4 17
1970-08-23 Pors Grenland W 4-0 1387 1203 68.6% 19.4% 12.0% +19.6 14
1970-08-23 @ Viking L 0-4 1203 1387 12.0% 19.4% 68.6% -19.6 7
1970-08-24 Skeid W 2-0 1387 1358 54.7% 20.0% 25.4% +20.1 15
1970-08-24 @ Brann L 0-2 1358 1387 25.4% 20.0% 54.7% -20.1 8
1970-09-06 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1333 1498 28.9% 19.9% 51.1% +36.0 12
1970-09-06 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1498 1333 51.1% 19.9% 28.9% -36.0 18
1970-09-06 Brann L 0-1 1465 1407 57.7% 19.9% 22.4% -21.4 17
1970-09-06 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1407 1465 22.4% 19.9% 57.7% +21.4 17
1970-09-06 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1183 1351 28.5% 19.9% 51.5% -11.1 7
1970-09-06 @ Pors Grenland W 2-1 1351 1183 51.5% 19.9% 28.5% +11.1 18
1970-09-06 Hodd W 1-0 1502 1225 73.7% 18.9% 7.4% +3.5 21
1970-09-06 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1225 1502 7.4% 18.9% 73.7% -3.5 6
1970-09-07 Viking L 0-3 1338 1407 41.9% 20.0% 38.1% -44.0 8
1970-09-07 @ Skeid W 3-0 1407 1338 38.1% 20.0% 41.9% +44.0 16
1970-09-20 Viking W 2-1 1429 1451 48.3% 20.0% 31.7% +12.1 19
1970-09-20 @ Brann L 1-2 1451 1429 31.7% 20.0% 48.3% -12.1 16
1970-09-20 Rosenborg W 1-0 1369 1506 32.6% 20.0% 47.4% +17.8 14
1970-09-20 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1506 1369 47.4% 20.0% 32.6% -17.9 21
1970-09-20 Pors Grenland W 6-0 1443 1172 73.4% 18.9% 7.7% +18.7 19
1970-09-20 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-6 1172 1443 7.7% 18.9% 73.4% -18.7 7
1970-09-20 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1463 1362 61.9% 19.8% 18.3% +7.6 20
1970-09-20 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1362 1463 18.3% 19.8% 61.9% -7.6 18
1970-09-27 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1153 1387 21.3% 19.7% 59.0% -9.1 7
1970-09-27 @ Pors Grenland W 1-0 1387 1153 59.0% 19.7% 21.3% +9.1 16
1970-09-27 Brann D 0-0 1488 1441 56.6% 19.9% 23.5% -3.2 22
1970-09-27 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1441 1488 23.5% 19.9% 56.6% +3.2 20
1970-09-27 Hodd W 2-1 1355 1221 64.8% 19.7% 15.6% +6.5 20
1970-09-27 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1221 1355 15.6% 19.7% 64.8% -6.5 6
1970-09-27 Stromsgodset D 2-2 1439 1470 47.1% 20.0% 32.9% -0.9 17
1970-09-27 @ Viking D 2-2 1470 1439 32.9% 20.0% 47.1% +0.9 21
1970-09-28 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1294 1462 28.5% 19.9% 51.6% -11.7 8
1970-09-28 @ Skeid W 1-0 1462 1294 51.6% 19.9% 28.5% +11.7 21
1970-10-04 Skeid D 0-0 1215 1282 42.2% 20.0% 37.7% -0.4 7
1970-10-04 @ Hodd D 0-0 1282 1215 37.7% 20.0% 42.2% +0.4 9
1970-10-11 Pors Grenland W 1-0 1444 1144 74.7% 18.7% 6.6% +3.1 22
1970-10-11 @ Brann L 0-1 1144 1444 6.6% 18.7% 74.7% -3.1 7
1970-10-11 Skeid L 1-3 1396 1282 63.2% 19.7% 17.1% -38.2 16
1970-10-11 @ Fredrikstad W 3-1 1282 1396 17.1% 19.7% 63.2% +38.2 11
1970-10-11 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1474 1361 63.0% 19.7% 17.2% +14.3 23
1970-10-11 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1361 1474 17.2% 19.7% 63.0% -14.3 20
1970-10-11 Viking W 1-0 1215 1438 22.4% 19.7% 57.9% +21.4 9
1970-10-11 @ Hodd L 0-1 1438 1215 57.9% 19.7% 22.4% -21.4 17
1970-10-11 Rosenborg W 2-0 1471 1485 49.4% 20.0% 30.6% +23.5 23
1970-10-11 @ Stromsgodset L 0-2 1485 1471 30.6% 20.0% 49.4% -23.5 22
1970-10-18 Hodd L 0-6 1141 1236 38.2% 20.0% 41.7% -78.2 7
1970-10-18 @ Pors Grenland W 6-0 1236 1141 41.7% 20.0% 38.2% +78.2 11
1970-10-18 Hamarkameratene W 3-0 1461 1488 47.7% 20.0% 32.3% +35.7 24
1970-10-18 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1488 1461 32.3% 20.0% 47.7% -35.7 23
1970-10-18 Brann D 1-1 1347 1447 37.5% 20.0% 42.5% +0.4 21
1970-10-18 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1447 1347 42.5% 20.0% 37.5% -0.4 23
1970-10-18 Skeid W 1-0 1494 1321 67.8% 19.5% 12.7% +5.8 25
1970-10-18 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1321 1494 12.7% 19.5% 67.8% -5.8 11
1970-10-18 Fredrikstad W 2-0 1417 1358 57.8% 19.9% 22.3% +18.0 19
1970-10-18 @ Viking L 0-2 1358 1417 22.3% 19.9% 57.8% -18.0 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1970-05-24 14.35% Pors Grenland 1274 1 @ Sarpsborg 1423 0
2 1970-06-26 15.61% Pors Grenland 1215 2 @ Fredrikstad 1348 1
3 1970-08-03 16.35% Skeid 1304 3 @ Sarpsborg 1427 0
4 1970-10-11 17.09% Skeid 1282 3 @ Fredrikstad 1396 1
5 1970-09-06 22.37% Brann 1407 1 @ Hamarkameratene 1465 0
6 1970-10-11 22.37% @ Hodd 1215 1 Viking 1438 0
7 1970-05-19 22.83% Sarpsborg 1402 1 @ Rosenborg 1455 0
8 1970-04-27 24.93% Sarpsborg 1355 2 @ Skeid 1389 1
9 1970-04-27 25.09% Hamarkameratene 1345 2 @ Viking 1377 0
10 1970-06-22 25.99% Viking 1362 2 @ Fredrikstad 1386 0
11 1970-05-08 26.41% Sarpsborg 1384 3 @ Fredrikstad 1405 2
12 1970-09-06 28.95% @ Fredrikstad 1333 2 Stromsgodset 1498 0
13 1970-05-25 30.80% Hamarkameratene 1403 3 @ Brann 1387 0
14 1970-06-11 31.39% Fredrikstad 1368 1 @ Skeid 1347 0
15 1970-06-14 32.21% Brann 1312 3 @ Pors Grenland 1286 0
16 1970-05-29 32.22% Stromsgodset 1425 2 @ Sarpsborg 1399 0
17 1970-09-20 32.60% @ Fredrikstad 1369 1 Rosenborg 1506 0
18 1970-08-17 33.59% @ Brann 1370 1 Stromsgodset 1499 0
19 1970-06-22 35.14% Sarpsborg 1410 1 @ Brann 1362 0
20 1970-05-10 37.30% @ Pors Grenland 1259 2 Skeid 1361 1
21 1970-05-16 37.62% @ Hamarkameratene 1365 4 Stromsgodset 1465 1
22 1970-05-10 37.91% @ Hodd 1284 1 Hamarkameratene 1382 0
23 1970-09-07 38.07% Viking 1407 3 @ Skeid 1338 0
24 1970-06-07 38.36% Sarpsborg 1365 2 @ Hodd 1294 0
25 1970-08-23 39.47% Fredrikstad 1319 2 @ Hodd 1240 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1970-10-18 78.23 Hodd 6 1236 41.73% @ Pors Grenland 0 1141 38.25% 20.02%
2 1970-08-03 64.94 Skeid 3 1304 16.35% @ Sarpsborg 0 1427 63.95% 19.69%
3 1970-05-25 50.50 Hamarkameratene 3 1403 30.80% @ Brann 0 1387 49.18% 20.02%
4 1970-06-14 49.21 Brann 3 1312 32.21% @ Pors Grenland 0 1286 47.77% 20.03%
5 1970-09-07 44.03 Viking 3 1407 38.07% @ Skeid 0 1338 41.89% 20.04%
6 1970-04-27 38.51 Hamarkameratene 2 1345 25.09% @ Viking 0 1377 54.96% 19.95%
7 1970-10-11 38.25 Skeid 3 1282 17.09% @ Fredrikstad 1 1396 63.18% 19.73%
8 1970-06-22 37.90 Viking 2 1362 25.99% @ Fredrikstad 0 1386 54.04% 19.97%
9 1970-05-16 37.47 @ Hamarkameratene 4 1365 37.62% Stromsgodset 1 1465 42.37% 20.02%
10 1970-09-06 35.99 @ Fredrikstad 2 1333 28.95% Stromsgodset 0 1498 51.14% 19.91%
11 1970-10-18 35.66 @ Rosenborg 3 1461 47.67% Hamarkameratene 0 1488 32.30% 20.03%
12 1970-05-29 33.87 Stromsgodset 2 1425 32.22% @ Sarpsborg 0 1399 47.75% 20.03%
13 1970-06-07 30.14 Sarpsborg 2 1365 38.36% @ Hodd 0 1294 41.61% 20.03%
14 1970-08-12 27.76 Rosenborg 2 1468 42.42% @ Skeid 0 1369 37.56% 20.02%
15 1970-04-27 27.15 Rosenborg 2 1420 43.45% @ Pors Grenland 0 1313 36.54% 20.01%
16 1970-05-03 27.08 @ Stromsgodset 7 1442 66.52% Pors Grenland 1 1286 13.92% 19.56%
17 1970-06-22 25.60 Stromsgodset 2 1455 46.02% @ Skeid 0 1329 34.00% 19.98%
18 1970-04-27 24.72 Stromsgodset 3 1417 41.09% @ Hodd 1 1327 38.88% 20.02%
19 1970-05-24 24.52 Pors Grenland 1 1274 14.35% @ Sarpsborg 0 1423 66.06% 19.58%
20 1970-10-11 23.48 @ Stromsgodset 2 1471 49.40% Rosenborg 0 1485 30.58% 20.02%
21 1970-06-26 22.64 Pors Grenland 2 1215 15.61% @ Fredrikstad 1 1348 64.73% 19.66%
22 1970-06-21 21.56 @ Hodd 2 1247 52.39% Pors Grenland 0 1237 27.62% 19.99%
23 1970-10-11 21.44 @ Hodd 1 1215 22.37% Viking 0 1438 57.90% 19.73%
24 1970-09-06 21.40 Brann 1 1407 22.37% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1465 57.73% 19.90%
25 1970-05-19 21.24 Sarpsborg 1 1402 22.83% @ Rosenborg 0 1455 57.26% 19.91%