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1969 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

4.51 points above expected

27 points · 22.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyn Oslo

4.29 points below expected

12 points · 16.29 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 18 13 1 4 27 36 15 +21 22.49 +4.51
2 Fredrikstad 18 8 6 4 22 28 15 +13 19.14 +2.86
3 Stromsgodset 18 8 6 4 22 34 22 +12 21.70 +0.30
4 Skeid 18 9 2 7 20 29 22 +7 18.61 +1.39
5 Viking 18 6 6 6 18 18 17 +1 16.98 +1.02
6 Brann 18 6 6 6 18 20 26 -6 16.66 +1.34
7 Sarpsborg 18 6 5 7 17 22 22 0 18.07 -1.07
8 Hodd 18 4 4 10 12 24 39 -15 15.41 -3.41
9 Start 18 5 2 11 12 20 35 -15 14.65 -2.65
10 Lyn Oslo 18 4 4 10 12 21 39 -18 16.29 -4.29

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1494 27 22.49 +4.51 93.7% 7 17 20 23 25 28 33
Stromsgodset 1483 22 21.70 +0.30 58.8% 8 16 19 22 24 27 33
Fredrikstad 1457 22 19.14 +2.86 83.9% 7 14 17 19 21 25 31
Skeid 1424 20 18.61 +1.39 70.3% 5 13 16 19 21 24 32
Viking 1400 18 16.98 +1.02 67.0% 5 11 15 17 19 23 31
Brann 1369 18 16.66 +1.34 70.0% 3 11 14 17 19 22 31
Sarpsborg 1355 17 18.07 -1.07 43.7% 6 13 16 18 20 24 29
Hodd 1294 12 15.41 -3.41 20.2% 2 10 13 15 18 21 28
Start 1273 12 14.65 -2.65 26.6% 3 9 12 15 17 20 27
Lyn Oslo 1266 12 16.29 -4.29 13.5% 5 11 14 16 19 22 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE HOD LO ROS SAR SKE STA STR VIK
Brann —
0-1-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
1.89
1-1-0
2.58
Fredrikstad
1-1-0
3.23
 —
2-0-0
3.17
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
3.24
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
3.73
0-2-0
2.20
0-2-0
3.08
Hodd
0-1-1
2.61
0-0-2
2.35
 —
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-2
1.64
1-1-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.18
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.38
Lyn Oslo
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
2.64
1-1-0
2.73
 —
0-0-2
1.60
1-1-0
2.29
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
3.04
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.78
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
3.35
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
3.93
 —
2-0-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.38
2-0-0
3.71
1-1-0
2.78
0-0-2
3.79
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
2.78
2-0-0
2.27
0-1-1
3.37
0-1-1
3.22
0-0-2
2.29
 —
0-0-2
2.68
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
2.10
0-2-0
2.96
Skeid
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.64
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
2.14
2-0-0
2.83
 —
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
3.02
Start
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
1.80
1-0-1
2.66
2-0-0
2.48
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
2.37
1-0-1
2.38
 —
0-0-2
1.47
1-0-1
2.39
Stromsgodset
1-0-1
3.63
0-2-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
3.26
0-1-1
2.73
0-1-1
3.42
2-0-0
3.17
2-0-0
4.07
 —
1-1-0
3.37
Viking
0-1-1
2.93
0-2-0
2.43
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
1.73
0-2-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
3.12
0-1-1
2.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.60 +6.2
Allowed 0.79 -4.8
Differential 0.96 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%8.89%6.67%3.33%1.67%1.11%28.33%
18.89%8.89%6.67%6.11%0.56%1.67%32.78%
26.67%6.67%6.67%—0.56%0.56%21.11%
33.33%6.11%—1.11%0.56%—11.11%
41.67%0.56%0.56%0.56%——3.33%
5+1.11%1.67%0.56%———3.33%
Total28.33%32.78%21.11%11.11%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 2.05
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%———5.56%27.78%
111.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
25.56%16.67%11.11%——5.56%38.89%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%11.11%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.44 -0.33
SD 0.83 1.50 1.68
CV 0.75 1.04 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%22.22%—5.56%——38.89%
25.56%—————5.56%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%44.44%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.83 +0.72
SD 1.58 0.86 1.87
CV 1.02 1.03 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
15.56%—22.22%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.17 -0.83
SD 1.33 1.47 2.23
CV 1.00 0.68 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%38.89%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.17 -1.00
SD 1.29 1.79 2.52
CV 1.11 0.83 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
111.11%——5.56%——16.67%
216.67%16.67%——5.56%—38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.83 +1.17
SD 1.41 1.15 2.01
CV 0.71 1.38 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%22.22%———38.89%
111.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total38.89%11.11%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.11 1.85
CV 1.14 0.91 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
15.56%—11.11%———16.67%
216.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.22 +0.39
SD 1.29 1.11 1.94
CV 0.80 0.91 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%16.67%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.94 -0.83
SD 0.96 1.55 2.04
CV 0.87 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.22 +0.67
SD 1.94 0.94 2.06
CV 1.03 0.77 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%————33.33%
116.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.94 +0.06
SD 0.97 1.00 1.30
CV 0.97 1.06 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rosenborg 27 22.49 +4.51
2 Fredrikstad 22 19.14 +2.86
3 Skeid 20 18.61 +1.39
4 Brann 18 16.66 +1.34
5 Viking 18 16.98 +1.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 12 16.29 -4.29
2 Hodd 12 15.41 -3.41
3 Start 12 14.65 -2.65
4 Sarpsborg 17 18.07 -1.07
5 Stromsgodset 22 21.70 +0.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 5 Jun 22 – Aug 18 1 in 186
2 Sarpsborg 4 May 11 – May 27 1 in 35
3 Rosenborg 4 Apr 27 – May 16 1 in 24
4 Start 2 Jun 15 – Jun 22 1 in 15
5 Fredrikstad 2 May 4 – May 11 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 5 Jun 13 – Aug 11 1 in 182
2 Hodd 5 Jul 27 – Aug 31 1 in 49
3 Start 4 May 4 – May 22 1 in 27
4 Sarpsborg 3 Jul 28 – Aug 11 1 in 13
5 Viking 2 May 11 – May 15 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 7 Aug 10 – Oct 19 1 in 46
2 Brann 7 Aug 11 – Oct 19 1 in 38
3 Sarpsborg 5 Aug 18 – Oct 12 1 in 21
4 Skeid 6 Jun 22 – Sep 1 1 in 20
5 Lyn Oslo 4 Aug 18 – Sep 28 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hodd 10 May 21 – Aug 31 1 in 59
2 Skeid 5 Sep 1 – Oct 19 1 in 19
3 Sarpsborg 6 Jun 9 – Aug 11 1 in 16
4 Lyn Oslo 6 Jun 13 – Aug 18 1 in 12
5 Viking 6 May 11 – Jun 15 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rosenborg42.10%22.31%13.97%8.91%5.30%3.46%2.12%1.00%0.60%0.23%
Fredrikstad9.60%14.52%16.26%14.19%12.94%10.74%8.56%6.50%4.25%2.44%
Stromsgodset28.38%25.08%16.42%10.75%7.44%4.94%3.43%1.92%1.15%0.49%
Skeid7.38%11.22%14.43%15.19%12.71%11.01%10.09%8.38%5.51%4.08%
Viking2.60%5.69%8.44%10.81%12.39%12.83%13.67%13.42%11.45%8.70%
Brann2.35%4.75%6.98%9.09%11.72%12.38%12.65%14.92%13.93%11.23%
Sarpsborg4.47%8.95%11.47%13.07%13.32%13.77%11.65%10.22%8.37%4.71%
Hodd1.03%2.28%4.18%5.41%8.20%10.18%12.73%14.95%18.39%22.65%
Start0.55%1.38%2.47%4.59%6.08%9.41%11.66%14.35%20.52%28.99%
Lyn Oslo1.54%3.82%5.38%7.99%9.90%11.28%13.44%14.34%15.83%16.48%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.11%
Clear Edge
48.89%23.33%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
074.47500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.51 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Rosenborg, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.72 * Some Luck: 2.72 to 4.08 * Lucky: 4.08 to 5.44 * Wild Swing: 5.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.63 * Close: 1.63 to 2.45 * Off: 2.45 to 3.26 * Way Off: 3.26 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.68 points
As Expected
03.408
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.045
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.66%
Rosenborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.52%
Lyn Oslo
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.18
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Clear Edge
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.62
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.51
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.05
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.070
Well Within Noise
00.1580.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rosenborg 99.17% 0.83%
Stromsgodset 98.36% 1.64%
Fredrikstad 93.31% 6.69%
Skeid 90.41% 9.59%
Sarpsborg 86.92% 13.08%
Viking 79.85% 20.15%
Brann 74.84% 25.16%
Lyn Oslo 67.69% 32.31%
Hodd 58.96% 41.04%
Start 50.49% 49.51%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1969-04-27 Hodd D 2-2 1376 1366 54.0% 24.5% 21.5% -1.3 1
1969-04-27 @ Brann D 2-2 1366 1376 21.5% 24.5% 54.0% +1.3 1
1969-04-27 Viking W 1-0 1415 1382 56.3% 24.3% 19.4% +5.8 2
1969-04-27 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1382 1415 19.4% 24.3% 56.3% -5.8 0
1969-04-27 Rosenborg L 0-1 1363 1417 46.6% 24.7% 28.7% -11.7 0
1969-04-27 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1417 1363 28.7% 24.7% 46.6% +11.7 2
1969-04-27 Skeid W 2-1 1324 1364 48.2% 24.7% 27.1% +7.2 2
1969-04-27 @ Start L 1-2 1364 1324 27.1% 24.7% 48.2% -7.2 0
1969-04-27 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1425 1381 57.4% 24.3% 18.4% -2.5 1
1969-04-27 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1381 1425 18.4% 24.3% 57.4% +2.5 1
1969-05-04 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1384 1421 48.6% 24.7% 26.7% +14.2 3
1969-05-04 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1421 1384 26.7% 24.7% 48.6% -14.2 2
1969-05-04 Stromsgodset W 1-0 1367 1422 46.3% 24.7% 28.9% +8.0 3
1969-05-04 @ Hodd L 0-1 1422 1367 28.9% 24.7% 46.3% -8.1 1
1969-05-04 Brann W 5-0 1428 1375 58.3% 24.2% 17.5% +23.5 4
1969-05-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-5 1375 1428 17.5% 24.2% 58.3% -23.5 1
1969-05-04 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1357 1352 53.5% 24.5% 22.0% +12.2 2
1969-05-04 @ Skeid L 0-2 1352 1357 22.0% 24.5% 53.5% -12.2 0
1969-05-04 Start W 1-0 1377 1331 57.6% 24.2% 18.2% +5.5 2
1969-05-04 @ Viking L 0-1 1331 1377 18.2% 24.2% 57.6% -5.5 2
1969-05-11 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1375 1398 50.3% 24.6% 25.1% -20.4 3
1969-05-11 @ Hodd W 3-1 1398 1375 25.1% 24.6% 50.3% +20.4 5
1969-05-11 Brann W 5-2 1339 1351 51.5% 24.6% 23.9% +13.8 2
1969-05-11 @ Sarpsborg L 2-5 1351 1339 23.9% 24.6% 51.5% -13.8 1
1969-05-11 Rosenborg L 1-4 1326 1452 36.7% 24.7% 38.6% -22.3 2
1969-05-11 @ Start W 4-1 1452 1326 38.6% 24.7% 36.7% +22.3 6
1969-05-11 Viking W 3-1 1414 1382 56.3% 24.3% 19.4% +9.5 3
1969-05-11 @ Stromsgodset L 1-3 1382 1414 19.4% 24.3% 56.3% -9.5 2
1969-05-12 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1369 1406 48.6% 24.7% 26.7% -22.9 2
1969-05-12 @ Skeid W 2-0 1406 1369 26.7% 24.7% 48.6% +22.9 4
1969-05-15 Start W 2-1 1338 1303 56.5% 24.3% 19.2% +5.4 3
1969-05-15 @ Brann L 1-2 1303 1338 19.2% 24.3% 56.5% -5.4 2
1969-05-15 Hodd L 1-2 1373 1355 54.8% 24.4% 20.8% -12.8 2
1969-05-15 @ Viking W 2-1 1355 1373 20.8% 24.4% 54.8% +12.8 5
1969-05-16 Stromsgodset L 1-8 1429 1424 53.5% 24.5% 22.0% -66.0 4
1969-05-16 @ Lyn Oslo W 8-1 1424 1429 22.0% 24.5% 53.5% +66.0 5
1969-05-16 Skeid W 4-0 1474 1346 64.5% 23.4% 12.1% +13.7 8
1969-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1346 1474 12.1% 23.4% 64.5% -13.7 2
1969-05-16 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1353 1419 45.0% 24.7% 30.3% +8.3 4
1969-05-16 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1419 1353 30.3% 24.7% 45.0% -8.3 5
1969-05-21 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1368 1363 53.4% 24.5% 22.1% -1.3 6
1969-05-21 @ Hodd D 2-2 1363 1368 22.1% 24.5% 53.4% +1.3 5
1969-05-22 Viking D 1-1 1410 1360 58.1% 24.2% 17.7% -2.3 6
1969-05-22 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1360 1410 17.7% 24.2% 58.1% +2.3 3
1969-05-22 Brann W 1-0 1333 1343 51.7% 24.6% 23.7% +6.9 4
1969-05-22 @ Skeid L 0-1 1343 1333 23.7% 24.6% 51.7% -6.9 3
1969-05-22 Sarpsborg L 0-3 1298 1361 45.2% 24.7% 30.0% -31.2 2
1969-05-22 @ Start W 3-0 1361 1298 30.0% 24.7% 45.2% +31.2 6
1969-05-22 Rosenborg D 0-0 1490 1488 53.1% 24.5% 22.3% -1.9 6
1969-05-22 @ Stromsgodset D 0-0 1488 1490 22.3% 24.5% 53.1% +1.9 9
1969-05-26 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1267 1408 34.5% 24.6% 40.8% +0.3 3
1969-05-26 @ Start D 1-1 1408 1267 40.8% 24.6% 34.5% -0.3 7
1969-05-27 Viking W 1-0 1336 1362 49.9% 24.7% 25.4% +7.3 5
1969-05-27 @ Brann L 0-1 1362 1336 25.4% 24.7% 49.9% -7.3 3
1969-05-27 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1490 1364 64.3% 23.4% 12.3% +10.6 11
1969-05-27 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1364 1490 12.3% 23.4% 64.3% -10.6 5
1969-05-27 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1393 1488 41.0% 24.7% 34.2% +17.3 8
1969-05-27 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1488 1393 34.2% 24.7% 41.0% -17.3 6
1969-05-27 Hodd W 4-0 1339 1366 49.8% 24.7% 25.5% +26.1 6
1969-05-27 @ Skeid L 0-4 1366 1339 25.5% 24.7% 49.8% -26.1 6
1969-06-08 Brann W 1-0 1408 1343 59.3% 24.1% 16.6% +5.1 9
1969-06-08 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1343 1408 16.6% 24.1% 59.3% -5.1 5
1969-06-08 Rosenborg L 1-2 1340 1500 32.0% 24.5% 43.4% -8.2 6
1969-06-08 @ Hodd W 2-1 1500 1340 43.4% 24.5% 32.0% +8.2 13
1969-06-08 Start W 3-0 1471 1267 69.4% 22.3% 8.3% +7.3 8
1969-06-08 @ Stromsgodset L 0-3 1267 1471 8.3% 22.3% 69.4% -7.3 3
1969-06-09 Sarpsborg W 3-1 1354 1410 46.2% 24.7% 29.1% +13.2 7
1969-06-09 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1410 1354 29.1% 24.7% 46.2% -13.2 8
1969-06-09 Skeid L 1-3 1355 1366 51.7% 24.6% 23.7% -20.9 3
1969-06-09 @ Viking W 3-1 1366 1355 23.7% 24.6% 51.7% +20.9 8
1969-06-12 Stromsgodset L 0-1 1386 1478 41.5% 24.7% 33.7% -10.6 8
1969-06-12 @ Skeid W 1-0 1478 1386 33.7% 24.7% 41.5% +10.6 10
1969-06-13 Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1338 1367 49.6% 24.7% 25.7% +6.9 7
1969-06-13 @ Brann L 1-2 1367 1338 25.7% 24.7% 49.6% -6.9 7
1969-06-15 Fredrikstad W 2-0 1508 1413 62.0% 23.8% 14.2% +8.4 15
1969-06-15 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1413 1508 14.2% 23.8% 62.0% -8.4 9
1969-06-15 Viking D 0-0 1397 1334 59.2% 24.1% 16.7% -2.7 9
1969-06-15 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1334 1397 16.7% 24.1% 59.2% +2.7 4
1969-06-15 Hodd W 3-0 1260 1332 44.1% 24.8% 31.1% +23.4 5
1969-06-15 @ Start L 0-3 1332 1260 31.1% 24.8% 44.1% -23.3 6
1969-06-22 Skeid L 1-3 1404 1376 55.9% 24.4% 19.7% -22.5 9
1969-06-22 @ Fredrikstad W 3-1 1376 1404 19.7% 24.4% 55.9% +22.5 10
1969-06-22 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1309 1394 42.4% 24.8% 32.9% -0.5 7
1969-06-22 @ Hodd D 0-0 1394 1309 32.9% 24.8% 42.4% +0.6 10
1969-06-22 Start L 0-2 1360 1283 60.5% 24.0% 15.6% -28.1 7
1969-06-22 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1283 1360 15.6% 24.0% 60.5% +28.1 7
1969-06-22 Brann W 3-1 1489 1345 65.6% 23.2% 11.2% +5.8 12
1969-06-22 @ Stromsgodset L 1-3 1345 1489 11.2% 23.2% 65.6% -5.8 7
1969-06-23 Rosenborg W 3-1 1337 1517 29.5% 24.4% 46.1% +18.9 6
1969-06-23 @ Viking L 1-3 1517 1337 46.1% 24.4% 29.5% -18.9 15
1969-07-27 Brann L 0-1 1308 1339 49.3% 24.7% 26.0% -12.3 7
1969-07-27 @ Hodd W 1-0 1339 1308 26.0% 24.7% 49.3% +12.3 9
1969-07-28 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1382 1494 38.6% 24.7% 36.7% -0.1 10
1969-07-28 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1494 1382 36.7% 24.7% 38.6% +0.1 13
1969-07-28 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1498 1395 62.6% 23.7% 13.7% +8.1 17
1969-07-28 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1395 1498 13.7% 23.7% 62.6% -8.1 10
1969-07-28 Start W 2-1 1398 1311 61.3% 23.9% 14.8% +4.3 12
1969-07-28 @ Skeid L 1-2 1311 1398 14.8% 23.9% 61.3% -4.3 7
1969-07-28 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1356 1332 55.4% 24.4% 20.2% +16.5 8
1969-07-28 @ Viking L 0-3 1332 1356 20.2% 24.4% 55.4% -16.5 7
1969-08-06 Rosenborg L 0-1 1352 1506 32.8% 24.6% 42.6% -8.9 9
1969-08-06 @ Brann W 1-0 1506 1352 42.6% 24.6% 32.8% +8.9 19
1969-08-06 Fredrikstad L 0-4 1316 1382 44.9% 24.7% 30.3% -40.6 7
1969-08-06 @ Lyn Oslo W 4-0 1382 1316 30.3% 24.7% 44.9% +40.5 12
1969-08-06 Skeid L 0-2 1387 1403 51.1% 24.6% 24.3% -23.9 10
1969-08-06 @ Sarpsborg W 2-0 1403 1387 24.3% 24.6% 51.1% +23.9 14
1969-08-06 Viking W 1-0 1307 1372 45.0% 24.7% 30.2% +8.3 9
1969-08-06 @ Start L 0-1 1372 1307 30.2% 24.7% 45.0% -8.3 8
1969-08-06 Hodd W 2-1 1494 1296 69.1% 22.4% 8.5% +2.6 15
1969-08-06 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1296 1494 8.5% 22.4% 69.1% -2.6 7
1969-08-10 Hodd W 5-0 1422 1293 64.6% 23.4% 12.0% +16.8 14
1969-08-10 @ Fredrikstad L 0-5 1293 1422 12.0% 23.4% 64.6% -16.8 7
1969-08-10 Start W 2-0 1515 1315 69.2% 22.4% 8.5% +5.1 21
1969-08-10 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1315 1515 8.5% 22.4% 69.2% -5.1 9
1969-08-10 Stromsgodset D 2-2 1364 1497 35.6% 24.6% 39.7% +0.1 9
1969-08-10 @ Viking D 2-2 1497 1364 39.7% 24.6% 35.6% -0.2 16
1969-08-11 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1343 1363 50.7% 24.6% 24.7% +13.4 11
1969-08-11 @ Brann L 0-2 1363 1343 24.7% 24.6% 50.7% -13.4 10
1969-08-11 Skeid L 1-3 1275 1427 33.2% 24.6% 42.3% -14.6 7
1969-08-11 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1427 1275 42.3% 24.6% 33.2% +14.6 16
1969-08-17 Viking L 1-2 1276 1364 42.1% 24.8% 33.2% -10.1 7
1969-08-17 @ Hodd W 2-1 1364 1276 33.2% 24.8% 42.1% +10.1 11
1969-08-17 Brann D 1-1 1310 1356 47.4% 24.7% 27.8% -1.0 10
1969-08-17 @ Start D 1-1 1356 1310 27.8% 24.7% 47.4% +1.0 12
1969-08-18 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1439 1349 61.5% 23.8% 14.6% -15.1 14
1969-08-18 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1349 1439 14.6% 23.8% 61.5% +15.2 12
1969-08-18 Rosenborg W 2-0 1441 1520 43.2% 24.8% 32.0% +16.4 18
1969-08-18 @ Skeid L 0-2 1520 1441 32.0% 24.8% 43.2% -16.4 21
1969-08-18 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1497 1260 71.2% 21.8% 7.0% -3.9 17
1969-08-18 @ Stromsgodset D 1-1 1260 1497 7.0% 21.8% 71.2% +3.9 8
1969-08-30 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1374 1424 47.0% 24.7% 28.3% -1.1 12
1969-08-30 @ Viking D 0-0 1424 1374 28.3% 24.7% 47.0% +1.1 15
1969-08-31 Hodd W 5-1 1264 1266 52.7% 24.6% 22.8% +19.8 10
1969-08-31 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1266 1264 22.8% 24.6% 52.7% -19.8 7
1969-08-31 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1504 1493 54.0% 24.5% 21.5% +10.3 23
1969-08-31 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1493 1504 21.5% 24.5% 54.0% -10.3 17
1969-08-31 Start W 3-0 1364 1309 58.5% 24.2% 17.3% +14.4 14
1969-08-31 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1309 1364 17.3% 24.2% 58.5% -14.5 10
1969-09-01 Skeid D 2-2 1357 1458 40.3% 24.7% 35.0% -0.2 13
1969-09-01 @ Brann D 2-2 1458 1357 35.0% 24.7% 40.3% +0.2 19
1969-09-13 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1373 1379 52.2% 24.6% 23.2% -1.6 13
1969-09-13 @ Viking D 1-1 1379 1373 23.2% 24.6% 52.2% +1.6 15
1969-09-14 Rosenborg W 4-2 1425 1514 41.9% 24.8% 33.4% +13.1 17
1969-09-14 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1514 1425 33.4% 24.8% 41.9% -13.1 23
1969-09-14 Start W 5-1 1247 1294 47.2% 24.7% 28.0% +23.4 9
1969-09-14 @ Hodd L 1-5 1294 1247 28.0% 24.7% 47.2% -23.4 10
1969-09-14 Brann D 1-1 1284 1357 44.0% 24.8% 31.2% -0.7 11
1969-09-14 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1357 1284 31.2% 24.8% 44.0% +0.7 14
1969-09-14 Skeid W 2-1 1483 1458 55.5% 24.4% 20.1% +5.6 19
1969-09-14 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1458 1483 20.1% 24.4% 55.5% -5.6 19
1969-09-28 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1358 1438 43.0% 24.8% 32.2% -0.6 15
1969-09-28 @ Brann D 1-1 1438 1358 32.2% 24.8% 43.0% +0.6 18
1969-09-28 Hodd W 2-1 1501 1270 70.9% 21.9% 7.2% +2.2 25
1969-09-28 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1270 1501 7.2% 21.9% 70.9% -2.2 9
1969-09-28 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1380 1283 62.1% 23.8% 14.1% -2.1 16
1969-09-28 @ Sarpsborg D 2-2 1283 1380 14.1% 23.8% 62.1% +2.1 12
1969-09-28 Viking L 0-1 1452 1371 60.8% 23.9% 15.3% -15.0 19
1969-09-28 @ Skeid W 1-0 1371 1452 15.3% 23.9% 60.8% +15.0 15
1969-09-28 Stromsgodset L 3-4 1271 1488 25.1% 24.1% 50.8% -6.2 10
1969-09-28 @ Start W 4-3 1488 1271 50.8% 24.1% 25.1% +6.2 21
1969-10-12 Start W 3-1 1439 1265 67.6% 22.8% 9.6% +5.0 20
1969-10-12 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1265 1439 9.6% 22.8% 67.6% -5.0 10
1969-10-12 Skeid D 3-3 1268 1437 30.8% 24.5% 44.7% +0.5 10
1969-10-12 @ Hodd D 3-3 1437 1268 44.7% 24.5% 30.8% -0.5 20
1969-10-12 Rosenborg L 1-2 1286 1503 25.1% 24.1% 50.8% -6.7 12
1969-10-12 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1503 1286 50.8% 24.1% 25.1% +6.7 27
1969-10-12 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1494 1378 63.6% 23.5% 12.8% -2.2 22
1969-10-12 @ Stromsgodset D 2-2 1378 1494 12.8% 23.5% 63.6% +2.2 17
1969-10-12 Brann D 0-0 1386 1357 56.0% 24.4% 19.7% -2.3 16
1969-10-12 @ Viking D 0-0 1357 1386 19.7% 24.4% 56.0% +2.3 16
1969-10-19 Stromsgodset W 2-1 1360 1492 35.7% 24.7% 39.6% +9.7 18
1969-10-19 @ Brann L 1-2 1492 1360 39.6% 24.7% 35.7% -9.6 22
1969-10-19 Viking L 0-1 1510 1384 64.3% 23.4% 12.2% -15.8 27
1969-10-19 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1384 1510 12.2% 23.4% 64.3% +15.8 18
1969-10-19 Hodd L 1-3 1381 1268 63.3% 23.6% 13.1% -25.4 17
1969-10-19 @ Sarpsborg W 3-1 1268 1381 13.1% 23.6% 63.3% +25.4 12
1969-10-19 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1437 1444 52.1% 24.6% 23.3% -12.9 20
1969-10-19 @ Skeid W 1-0 1444 1437 23.3% 24.6% 52.1% +12.9 22
1969-10-19 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1260 1279 50.7% 24.6% 24.6% +13.4 12
1969-10-19 @ Start L 0-2 1279 1260 24.6% 24.6% 50.7% -13.4 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1969-10-19 12.24% Viking 1384 1 @ Rosenborg 1510 0
2 1969-10-19 13.08% Hodd 1268 3 @ Sarpsborg 1381 1
3 1969-08-18 14.62% Sarpsborg 1349 1 @ Fredrikstad 1439 0
4 1969-09-28 15.28% Viking 1371 1 @ Skeid 1452 0
5 1969-06-22 15.58% Start 1283 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1360 0
6 1969-06-22 19.72% Skeid 1376 3 @ Fredrikstad 1404 1
7 1969-05-15 20.76% Hodd 1355 2 @ Viking 1373 1
8 1969-05-16 22.01% Stromsgodset 1424 8 @ Lyn Oslo 1429 1
9 1969-10-19 23.31% Fredrikstad 1444 1 @ Skeid 1437 0
10 1969-06-09 23.71% Skeid 1366 3 @ Viking 1355 1
11 1969-08-06 24.31% Skeid 1403 2 @ Sarpsborg 1387 0
12 1969-05-11 25.07% Fredrikstad 1398 3 @ Hodd 1375 1
13 1969-07-27 26.04% Brann 1339 1 @ Hodd 1308 0
14 1969-05-12 26.73% Lyn Oslo 1406 2 @ Skeid 1369 0
15 1969-04-27 28.71% Rosenborg 1417 1 @ Sarpsborg 1363 0
16 1969-06-23 29.47% @ Viking 1337 3 Rosenborg 1517 1
17 1969-05-22 30.01% Sarpsborg 1361 3 @ Start 1298 0
18 1969-08-06 30.35% Fredrikstad 1382 4 @ Lyn Oslo 1316 0
19 1969-08-17 33.16% Viking 1364 2 @ Hodd 1276 1
20 1969-06-12 33.73% Stromsgodset 1478 1 @ Skeid 1386 0
21 1969-10-19 35.74% @ Brann 1360 2 Stromsgodset 1492 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1969-05-16 66.01 Stromsgodset 8 1424 22.01% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1429 53.48% 24.52%
2 1969-08-06 40.56 Fredrikstad 4 1382 30.35% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1316 44.91% 24.74%
3 1969-05-22 31.25 Sarpsborg 3 1361 30.01% @ Start 0 1298 45.25% 24.74%
4 1969-06-22 28.06 Start 2 1283 15.58% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1360 60.45% 23.97%
5 1969-05-27 26.09 @ Skeid 4 1339 49.82% Hodd 0 1366 25.53% 24.66%
6 1969-10-19 25.45 Hodd 3 1268 13.08% @ Sarpsborg 1 1381 63.33% 23.59%
7 1969-08-06 23.91 Skeid 2 1403 24.31% @ Sarpsborg 0 1387 51.07% 24.62%
8 1969-05-04 23.48 @ Rosenborg 5 1428 58.32% Brann 0 1375 17.50% 24.18%
9 1969-09-14 23.43 @ Hodd 5 1247 47.24% Start 1 1294 28.04% 24.72%
10 1969-06-15 23.36 @ Start 3 1260 44.10% Hodd 0 1332 31.15% 24.75%
11 1969-05-12 22.87 Lyn Oslo 2 1406 26.73% @ Skeid 0 1369 48.58% 24.69%
12 1969-06-22 22.53 Skeid 3 1376 19.72% @ Fredrikstad 1 1404 55.91% 24.37%
13 1969-05-11 22.29 Rosenborg 4 1452 38.65% @ Start 1 1326 36.67% 24.68%
14 1969-06-09 20.94 Skeid 3 1366 23.71% @ Viking 1 1355 51.70% 24.60%
15 1969-05-11 20.42 Fredrikstad 3 1398 25.07% @ Hodd 1 1375 50.28% 24.64%
16 1969-08-31 19.82 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1264 52.67% Hodd 1 1266 22.77% 24.55%
17 1969-06-23 18.88 @ Viking 3 1337 29.47% Rosenborg 1 1517 46.11% 24.42%
18 1969-05-27 17.29 @ Sarpsborg 2 1393 41.01% Stromsgodset 0 1488 34.25% 24.74%
19 1969-08-10 16.79 @ Fredrikstad 5 1422 64.57% Hodd 0 1293 12.04% 23.39%
20 1969-07-28 16.48 @ Viking 3 1356 55.40% Lyn Oslo 0 1332 20.20% 24.41%
21 1969-08-18 16.42 @ Skeid 2 1441 43.25% Rosenborg 0 1520 32.00% 24.75%
22 1969-10-19 15.83 Viking 1 1384 12.24% @ Rosenborg 0 1510 64.33% 23.43%
23 1969-08-18 15.15 Sarpsborg 1 1349 14.62% @ Fredrikstad 0 1439 61.54% 23.84%
24 1969-09-28 14.96 Viking 1 1371 15.28% @ Skeid 0 1452 60.79% 23.93%
25 1969-08-11 14.58 Skeid 3 1427 42.26% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1275 33.16% 24.58%