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1968 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Lyn Oslo

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lyn Oslo

5.62 points above expected

28 points · 22.38 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valerenga

6.18 points below expected

10 points · 16.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 18 14 0 4 28 57 33 +24 22.38 +5.62
2 Rosenborg 18 11 2 5 24 53 29 +24 22.43 +1.57
3 Viking 18 9 3 6 21 34 32 +2 16.30 +4.70
4 Stromsgodset 18 9 1 8 19 48 27 +21 19.21 -0.21
5 Brann 18 8 3 7 19 31 32 -1 14.82 +4.18
6 Skeid 18 9 1 8 19 22 33 -11 18.27 +0.73
7 Sarpsborg 18 5 5 8 15 14 25 -11 15.65 -0.65
8 Fredrikstad 18 6 2 10 14 28 34 -6 18.52 -4.52
9 Frigg Oslo 18 3 5 10 11 15 37 -22 16.24 -5.24
10 Valerenga 18 3 4 11 10 18 38 -20 16.18 -6.18

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Stromsgodset 1418 19 19.21 -0.21 52.8% 6 13 17 19 22 25 32
Rosenborg 1398 24 22.43 +1.57 70.4% 9 16 20 22 25 28 34
Lyn Oslo 1394 28 22.38 +5.62 95.3% 6 16 20 22 25 28 35
Viking 1296 21 16.30 +4.70 91.1% 4 10 14 16 19 23 30
Brann 1273 19 14.82 +4.18 88.9% 0 9 12 15 17 21 28
Fredrikstad 1272 14 18.52 -4.52 14.9% 5 12 16 18 21 25 34
Skeid 1253 19 18.27 +0.73 62.8% 3 12 16 18 21 24 31
Sarpsborg 1237 15 15.65 -0.65 48.8% 1 9 13 16 18 22 31
Valerenga 1185 10 16.18 -6.18 6.5% 4 10 14 16 19 22 29
Frigg Oslo 1158 11 16.24 -5.24 10.7% 4 10 14 16 19 23 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE FO LO ROS SAR SKE STR VAL VIK
Brann —
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
1.54
0-0-2
2.12
2-0-0
2.56
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.20
1-1-0
2.60
0-1-1
2.50
Fredrikstad
1-0-1
3.14
 —
1-1-0
3.25
0-0-2
2.10
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-2
2.82
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.44
Frigg Oslo
0-1-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.45
 —
0-0-2
2.34
1-1-0
2.01
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.55
1-0-1
1.99
0-0-2
2.87
0-1-1
2.95
Lyn Oslo
1-0-1
4.16
2-0-0
3.59
2-0-0
3.35
 —
2-0-0
2.77
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
3.25
0-0-2
3.48
2-0-0
4.04
1-0-1
3.60
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.29
0-1-1
3.69
0-0-2
2.92
 —
1-1-0
3.77
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.56
2-0-0
3.93
1-0-1
3.97
Sarpsborg
0-0-2
3.13
1-0-1
2.46
0-1-1
2.92
0-0-2
1.75
0-1-1
1.93
 —
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.59
Skeid
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
3.14
0-0-2
2.44
0-0-2
2.15
1-1-0
3.18
 —
1-0-1
2.80
2-0-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.77
Stromsgodset
1-0-1
3.50
2-0-0
2.88
1-0-1
3.71
2-0-0
2.21
1-0-1
2.14
0-0-2
3.36
1-0-1
2.89
 —
1-1-0
3.12
0-0-2
3.64
Valerenga
0-1-1
3.09
0-1-1
2.39
2-0-0
2.82
0-0-2
1.66
0-0-2
1.77
0-1-1
3.12
0-0-2
2.71
0-1-1
2.58
 —
1-0-1
2.68
Viking
1-1-0
3.19
1-0-1
2.25
1-1-0
2.75
1-0-1
2.09
1-0-1
1.73
0-1-1
3.10
1-0-1
2.92
2-0-0
2.06
1-0-1
3.02
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +3.1
Allowed 0.16 -5.5
Differential 0.75 +2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%4.44%7.78%3.33%1.67%2.22%25.00%
14.44%5.56%8.33%3.33%2.22%2.22%26.11%
27.78%8.33%3.33%2.78%1.11%2.78%26.11%
33.33%3.33%2.78%—0.56%—10.00%
41.67%2.22%1.11%0.56%——5.56%
5+2.22%2.22%2.78%———7.22%
Total25.00%26.11%26.11%10.00%5.56%7.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.78 +0.00
SD 1.81 1.81 2.77
CV 1.02 1.02 —
Max 11 11 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%—5.56%—22.22%
1——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
216.67%11.11%16.67%5.56%——50.00%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.78 -0.06
SD 1.23 1.70 2.53
CV 0.71 0.96 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
111.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%—44.44%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
3——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%27.78%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.89 -0.33
SD 1.58 1.32 2.30
CV 1.02 0.70 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%11.11%—5.56%11.11%50.00%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.06 -1.22
SD 1.10 1.86 2.24
CV 1.32 0.91 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——5.56%—5.56%11.11%22.22%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
35.56%16.67%————22.22%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—11.11%———16.67%
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%—5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.17 1.83 +1.33
SD 2.36 2.57 3.93
CV 0.74 1.40 —
Max 11 10 +9
Min 1 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%——11.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
3——11.11%———11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
Total27.78%11.11%38.89%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 1.61 +1.33
SD 2.31 1.24 2.72
CV 0.79 0.77 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
116.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
25.56%————5.56%11.11%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%22.22%—11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.39 -0.61
SD 0.88 1.58 1.65
CV 1.13 1.14 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%11.11%—11.11%33.33%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
216.67%22.22%——5.56%—44.44%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.83 -0.61
SD 1.00 1.92 2.68
CV 0.82 1.05 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%—11.11%——22.22%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—16.67%————16.67%
Total16.67%38.89%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 1.50 +1.17
SD 2.52 1.10 3.03
CV 0.95 0.73 —
Max 10 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
1—11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%33.33%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.11 -1.11
SD 0.84 1.91 1.97
CV 0.84 0.90 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
1——11.11%———11.11%
2—22.22%5.56%——11.11%38.89%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%27.78%——11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.78 +0.11
SD 1.49 2.60 3.07
CV 0.79 1.46 —
Max 6 11 +6
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 28 22.38 +5.62
2 Viking 21 16.30 +4.70
3 Brann 19 14.82 +4.18
4 Rosenborg 24 22.43 +1.57
5 Skeid 19 18.27 +0.73

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 10 16.18 -6.18
2 Frigg Oslo 11 16.24 -5.24
3 Fredrikstad 14 18.52 -4.52
4 Sarpsborg 15 15.65 -0.65
5 Stromsgodset 19 19.21 -0.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 6 Jun 4 – Aug 13 1 in 179
2 Lyn Oslo 8 Jul 28 – Oct 13 1 in 152
3 Viking 5 Aug 11 – Oct 6 1 in 138
4 Stromsgodset 5 Sep 8 – Oct 20 1 in 66
5 Rosenborg 7 May 23 – Aug 7 1 in 65

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stromsgodset 4 Jul 28 – Aug 25 1 in 126
2 Valerenga 6 Aug 8 – Oct 8 1 in 105
3 Lyn Oslo 2 Jun 11 – Jun 16 1 in 19
4 Skeid 3 Sep 23 – Oct 13 1 in 13
5 Frigg Oslo 3 Apr 25 – May 13 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 6 Aug 11 – Oct 13 1 in 39
2 Skeid 6 Jun 4 – Aug 13 1 in 27
3 Lyn Oslo 8 Jul 28 – Oct 13 1 in 20
4 Rosenborg 8 May 20 – Aug 7 1 in 17
5 Frigg Oslo 5 May 20 – Jun 12 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 8 Aug 8 – Oct 20 1 in 33
2 Sarpsborg 7 May 23 – Aug 7 1 in 30
3 Stromsgodset 4 May 11 – May 26 1 in 14
4 Frigg Oslo 5 Apr 25 – May 23 1 in 13
5 Skeid 4 May 13 – May 26 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Lyn Oslo34.65%23.21%14.89%9.85%6.67%4.60%2.70%1.98%1.01%0.44%
Rosenborg34.36%24.22%14.70%9.46%6.69%4.55%2.94%1.67%0.86%0.55%
Viking2.20%5.15%7.21%9.37%11.04%12.71%13.52%13.34%13.41%12.05%
Stromsgodset10.13%14.09%15.82%14.40%12.45%10.52%8.11%6.85%4.78%2.85%
Brann1.01%2.47%4.27%6.60%8.32%10.16%12.19%15.50%17.60%21.88%
Skeid5.57%9.26%12.16%12.94%13.03%11.83%11.41%9.62%8.40%5.78%
Sarpsborg1.50%3.24%5.70%7.80%9.44%10.72%12.97%13.88%16.37%18.38%
Fredrikstad6.54%10.32%13.04%13.59%12.96%12.23%10.18%8.73%6.97%5.44%
Frigg Oslo1.94%4.26%6.03%7.89%9.77%11.65%12.98%13.79%15.44%16.25%
Valerenga2.10%3.78%6.18%8.10%9.63%11.03%13.00%14.64%15.16%16.38%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.56%
Slight Edge
45.56%14.44%40.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.
135 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
Lyn Oslo, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.03 * Some Luck: 3.03 to 4.55 * Lucky: 4.55 to 6.06 * Wild Swing: 6.06 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.71 * Close: 1.71 to 2.56 * Off: 2.56 to 3.41 * Way Off: 3.41 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.01 points
Some Luck
03.799
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.20
Close
02.135
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.29%
Lyn Oslo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.48%
Valerenga
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.33
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Clear Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
47%
Frequent
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.22
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.12
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.25
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
36%
Upset-Prone
0%33%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
37%
Very Shaky
0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.72
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1710.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rosenborg 98.59% 1.41%
Lyn Oslo 98.55% 1.45%
Stromsgodset 92.37% 7.63%
Fredrikstad 87.59% 12.41%
Skeid 85.82% 14.18%
Viking 74.54% 25.46%
Valerenga 68.46% 31.54%
Frigg Oslo 68.31% 31.69%
Sarpsborg 65.25% 34.75%
Brann 60.52% 39.48%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1968-04-25 Valerenga L 1-2 1297 1283 48.3% 15.3% 36.4% -9.0 0
1968-04-25 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1283 1297 36.4% 15.3% 48.3% +9.0 2
1968-04-28 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1219 1276 38.4% 15.3% 46.3% +17.4 2
1968-04-28 @ Brann L 0-2 1276 1219 46.3% 15.3% 38.4% -17.4 0
1968-04-28 Rosenborg L 0-1 1313 1321 45.2% 15.3% 39.5% -9.0 0
1968-04-28 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1321 1313 39.5% 15.3% 45.2% +9.0 2
1968-04-28 Stromsgodset L 2-4 1335 1290 52.6% 15.3% 32.1% -15.1 0
1968-04-28 @ Skeid W 4-2 1290 1335 32.1% 15.3% 52.6% +15.1 2
1968-04-28 Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1224 1327 32.2% 15.3% 52.5% +9.7 2
1968-04-28 @ Viking L 1-2 1327 1224 52.5% 15.3% 32.2% -9.7 0
1968-05-02 Skeid L 1-2 1292 1320 42.5% 15.3% 42.2% -8.1 2
1968-05-02 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1320 1292 42.2% 15.3% 42.5% +8.1 2
1968-05-05 Viking L 1-2 1331 1234 58.8% 15.2% 26.0% -10.8 2
1968-05-05 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1234 1331 26.0% 15.2% 58.8% +10.8 4
1968-05-05 Brann W 2-0 1305 1236 55.5% 15.2% 29.2% +11.7 4
1968-05-05 @ Stromsgodset L 0-2 1236 1305 29.2% 15.2% 55.5% -11.7 2
1968-05-06 Frigg Oslo W 5-0 1317 1288 50.5% 15.3% 34.2% +31.3 2
1968-05-06 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-5 1288 1317 34.2% 15.3% 50.5% -31.3 0
1968-05-06 Fredrikstad W 3-2 1258 1304 40.0% 15.3% 44.7% +8.0 2
1968-05-06 @ Sarpsborg L 2-3 1304 1258 44.7% 15.3% 40.0% -8.0 0
1968-05-11 Valerenga D 0-0 1266 1284 43.9% 15.3% 40.8% -0.2 3
1968-05-11 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1284 1266 40.8% 15.3% 43.9% +0.2 3
1968-05-11 Stromsgodset W 2-1 1245 1316 36.4% 15.3% 48.3% +9.0 6
1968-05-11 @ Viking L 1-2 1316 1245 48.3% 15.3% 36.4% -9.0 4
1968-05-12 Rosenborg W 3-1 1349 1320 50.4% 15.3% 34.3% +11.6 4
1968-05-12 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1320 1349 34.3% 15.3% 50.4% -11.6 2
1968-05-13 Skeid W 2-0 1224 1328 32.1% 15.3% 52.6% +19.5 4
1968-05-13 @ Brann L 0-2 1328 1224 52.6% 15.3% 32.1% -19.5 2
1968-05-13 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1256 1296 40.8% 15.3% 43.9% -8.3 0
1968-05-13 @ Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1296 1256 43.9% 15.3% 40.8% +8.3 2
1968-05-19 Viking W 2-1 1304 1254 53.2% 15.3% 31.6% +6.2 4
1968-05-19 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1254 1304 31.6% 15.3% 53.2% -6.2 6
1968-05-19 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1307 1266 52.0% 15.3% 32.7% -10.2 4
1968-05-19 @ Stromsgodset W 1-0 1266 1307 32.7% 15.3% 52.0% +10.2 5
1968-05-19 Brann D 2-2 1284 1244 51.9% 15.3% 32.8% -0.6 4
1968-05-19 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1244 1284 32.8% 15.3% 51.9% +0.7 5
1968-05-20 Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1308 1248 54.4% 15.3% 30.3% -1.2 3
1968-05-20 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1248 1308 30.3% 15.3% 54.4% +1.2 1
1968-05-20 Lyn Oslo L 0-3 1309 1360 39.1% 15.3% 45.6% -21.9 2
1968-05-20 @ Skeid W 3-0 1360 1309 45.6% 15.3% 39.1% +21.9 6
1968-05-23 Rosenborg L 0-4 1244 1307 37.6% 15.3% 47.1% -27.6 5
1968-05-23 @ Brann W 4-0 1307 1244 47.1% 15.3% 37.6% +27.6 5
1968-05-23 Viking D 0-0 1249 1248 46.7% 15.3% 38.0% -0.4 2
1968-05-23 @ Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1248 1249 38.0% 15.3% 46.7% +0.4 7
1968-05-23 Skeid D 1-1 1276 1287 45.0% 15.3% 39.7% -0.2 6
1968-05-23 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1287 1276 39.7% 15.3% 45.0% +0.2 3
1968-05-23 Valerenga D 1-1 1297 1284 48.3% 15.3% 36.4% -0.5 5
1968-05-23 @ Stromsgodset D 1-1 1284 1297 36.4% 15.3% 48.3% +0.5 5
1968-05-24 Fredrikstad W 3-1 1382 1310 55.9% 15.2% 28.9% +10.0 8
1968-05-24 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1310 1382 28.9% 15.2% 55.9% -10.0 4
1968-05-26 Stromsgodset W 4-1 1249 1297 39.6% 15.3% 45.0% +20.8 4
1968-05-26 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-4 1297 1249 45.0% 15.3% 39.6% -20.8 5
1968-05-26 Skeid W 6-0 1334 1287 52.8% 15.3% 31.9% +35.0 7
1968-05-26 @ Rosenborg L 0-6 1287 1334 31.9% 15.3% 52.8% -35.0 3
1968-05-27 Valerenga W 1-0 1300 1284 48.7% 15.3% 36.0% +7.4 6
1968-05-27 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1284 1300 36.0% 15.3% 48.7% -7.4 5
1968-05-27 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1392 1276 61.0% 15.2% 23.8% +9.7 10
1968-05-27 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1276 1392 23.8% 15.2% 61.0% -9.7 6
1968-05-27 Brann W 2-1 1248 1217 50.7% 15.3% 34.0% +6.7 9
1968-05-27 @ Viking L 1-2 1217 1248 34.0% 15.3% 50.7% -6.7 5
1968-06-03 Rosenborg L 2-5 1266 1369 32.2% 15.3% 52.5% -13.5 6
1968-06-03 @ Sarpsborg W 5-2 1369 1266 52.5% 15.3% 32.2% +13.5 9
1968-06-03 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1276 1308 41.9% 15.3% 42.8% +8.1 7
1968-06-03 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1308 1276 42.8% 15.3% 41.9% -8.1 6
1968-06-04 Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1210 1270 38.0% 15.3% 46.7% +0.3 6
1968-06-04 @ Brann D 2-2 1270 1210 46.7% 15.3% 38.0% -0.3 5
1968-06-04 Viking W 2-1 1252 1255 46.1% 15.3% 38.6% +7.4 5
1968-06-04 @ Skeid L 1-2 1255 1252 38.6% 15.3% 46.1% -7.5 9
1968-06-05 Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1277 1402 29.4% 15.2% 55.3% -10.2 5
1968-06-05 @ Valerenga W 3-1 1402 1277 55.3% 15.2% 29.4% +10.2 12
1968-06-11 Brann L 1-4 1412 1210 69.1% 14.9% 16.0% -31.2 12
1968-06-11 @ Lyn Oslo W 4-1 1210 1412 16.0% 14.9% 69.1% +31.2 8
1968-06-12 Skeid L 0-2 1300 1259 51.9% 15.3% 32.8% -19.2 6
1968-06-12 @ Fredrikstad W 2-0 1259 1300 32.8% 15.3% 51.9% +19.2 7
1968-06-12 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1269 1253 48.7% 15.3% 36.0% +7.4 7
1968-06-12 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1253 1269 36.0% 15.3% 48.7% -7.4 6
1968-06-12 Stromsgodset W 3-2 1383 1284 59.1% 15.2% 25.7% +4.9 11
1968-06-12 @ Rosenborg L 2-3 1284 1383 25.7% 15.2% 59.1% -5.0 7
1968-06-12 Valerenga L 0-2 1247 1267 43.7% 15.3% 41.0% -16.5 9
1968-06-12 @ Viking W 2-0 1267 1247 41.0% 15.3% 43.7% +16.5 7
1968-06-16 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1242 1280 40.9% 15.3% 43.7% -7.4 8
1968-06-16 @ Brann W 3-2 1280 1242 43.7% 15.3% 40.9% +7.4 8
1968-06-16 Viking D 0-0 1245 1231 48.5% 15.3% 36.2% -0.6 7
1968-06-16 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1231 1245 36.2% 15.3% 48.5% +0.6 10
1968-06-16 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1279 1277 46.7% 15.3% 38.0% +7.3 9
1968-06-16 @ Skeid L 1-2 1277 1279 38.0% 15.3% 46.7% -7.3 7
1968-06-16 Lyn Oslo W 10-1 1279 1381 32.4% 15.3% 52.4% +65.2 9
1968-06-16 @ Stromsgodset L 1-10 1381 1279 52.4% 15.3% 32.4% -65.2 12
1968-06-17 Rosenborg L 2-3 1283 1388 32.0% 15.3% 52.8% -6.0 7
1968-06-17 @ Valerenga W 3-2 1388 1283 52.8% 15.3% 32.0% +6.0 13
1968-07-28 Viking W 11-2 1316 1231 57.4% 15.2% 27.4% +30.0 14
1968-07-28 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-11 1231 1316 27.4% 15.2% 57.4% -30.0 10
1968-07-28 Fredrikstad W 4-3 1394 1288 59.9% 15.2% 24.9% +4.7 15
1968-07-28 @ Rosenborg L 3-4 1288 1394 24.9% 15.2% 59.9% -4.7 8
1968-07-28 Brann L 1-2 1245 1234 47.9% 15.3% 36.8% -9.0 7
1968-07-28 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1234 1245 36.8% 15.3% 47.9% +9.0 10
1968-07-28 Skeid L 1-2 1344 1286 54.2% 15.3% 30.6% -10.0 9
1968-07-28 @ Stromsgodset W 2-1 1286 1344 30.6% 15.3% 54.2% +10.0 11
1968-07-30 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1277 1269 47.5% 15.3% 37.1% +14.4 9
1968-07-30 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1269 1277 37.1% 15.3% 47.5% -14.4 7
1968-08-07 Stromsgodset W 2-1 1243 1334 33.8% 15.3% 50.9% +9.5 12
1968-08-07 @ Brann L 1-2 1334 1243 50.9% 15.3% 33.8% -9.5 9
1968-08-07 Sarpsborg W 4-1 1283 1236 52.8% 15.3% 31.9% +15.5 10
1968-08-07 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1236 1283 31.9% 15.3% 52.8% -15.4 7
1968-08-07 Lyn Oslo L 2-5 1255 1346 33.8% 15.3% 50.9% -14.1 7
1968-08-07 @ Frigg Oslo W 5-2 1346 1255 50.9% 15.3% 33.8% +14.1 16
1968-08-07 Rosenborg L 2-5 1201 1399 21.5% 15.0% 63.4% -9.4 10
1968-08-07 @ Viking W 5-2 1399 1201 63.4% 15.0% 21.5% +9.4 17
1968-08-08 Valerenga W 3-0 1296 1292 47.1% 15.3% 37.6% +21.1 13
1968-08-08 @ Skeid L 0-3 1292 1296 37.6% 15.3% 47.1% -21.1 9
1968-08-11 Lyn Oslo L 2-4 1408 1360 52.9% 15.3% 31.8% -15.2 17
1968-08-11 @ Rosenborg W 4-2 1360 1408 31.8% 15.3% 52.9% +15.2 18
1968-08-11 Viking L 2-3 1325 1192 62.7% 15.1% 22.1% -11.0 9
1968-08-11 @ Stromsgodset W 3-2 1192 1325 22.1% 15.1% 62.7% +11.0 12
1968-08-12 Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1299 1241 54.1% 15.3% 30.6% -1.1 11
1968-08-12 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1241 1299 30.6% 15.3% 54.1% +1.1 8
1968-08-12 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1270 1220 53.2% 15.3% 31.6% -10.5 9
1968-08-12 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1220 1270 31.6% 15.3% 53.2% +10.4 9
1968-08-13 Brann W 2-0 1317 1253 55.0% 15.3% 29.8% +11.9 15
1968-08-13 @ Skeid L 0-2 1253 1317 29.8% 15.3% 55.0% -11.9 12
1968-08-22 Skeid W 2-1 1375 1329 52.6% 15.3% 32.1% +6.3 20
1968-08-22 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1329 1375 32.1% 15.3% 52.6% -6.3 15
1968-08-25 Rosenborg W 2-1 1242 1393 26.4% 15.2% 58.4% +10.8 10
1968-08-25 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1393 1242 58.4% 15.2% 26.4% -10.8 17
1968-08-25 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1231 1314 34.8% 15.3% 49.9% +18.6 11
1968-08-25 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1314 1231 49.9% 15.3% 34.8% -18.6 9
1968-08-25 Fredrikstad W 3-0 1203 1297 33.3% 15.3% 51.4% +27.7 14
1968-08-25 @ Viking L 0-3 1297 1203 51.4% 15.3% 33.3% -27.7 11
1968-08-26 Valerenga W 2-0 1241 1260 43.7% 15.3% 40.9% +15.7 14
1968-08-26 @ Brann L 0-2 1260 1241 40.9% 15.3% 43.7% -15.6 9
1968-09-08 Brann W 7-1 1382 1256 62.0% 15.1% 22.9% +21.5 19
1968-09-08 @ Rosenborg L 1-7 1256 1382 22.9% 15.1% 62.0% -21.5 14
1968-09-08 Stromsgodset L 1-6 1244 1295 39.2% 15.3% 45.5% -29.2 9
1968-09-08 @ Valerenga W 6-1 1295 1244 45.5% 15.3% 39.2% +29.2 11
1968-09-08 Frigg Oslo W 6-0 1231 1253 43.3% 15.3% 41.3% +43.8 16
1968-09-08 @ Viking L 0-6 1253 1231 41.3% 15.3% 43.3% -43.8 10
1968-09-09 Lyn Oslo L 1-4 1270 1381 31.1% 15.2% 53.6% -15.1 11
1968-09-09 @ Fredrikstad W 4-1 1381 1270 53.6% 15.2% 31.1% +15.1 22
1968-09-10 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1323 1249 56.1% 15.2% 28.7% +6.1 17
1968-09-10 @ Skeid L 0-1 1249 1323 28.7% 15.2% 56.1% -6.1 11
1968-09-22 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1235 1397 25.2% 15.1% 59.6% -10.2 14
1968-09-22 @ Brann W 2-0 1397 1235 59.6% 15.1% 25.2% +10.2 24
1968-09-22 Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1243 1209 51.1% 15.3% 33.6% -0.9 12
1968-09-22 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1209 1243 33.6% 15.3% 51.1% +0.9 11
1968-09-22 Rosenborg W 3-0 1324 1404 35.4% 15.3% 49.4% +26.7 13
1968-09-22 @ Stromsgodset L 0-3 1404 1324 49.4% 15.3% 35.4% -26.7 19
1968-09-22 Viking L 1-3 1215 1274 38.0% 15.3% 46.6% -12.7 9
1968-09-22 @ Valerenga W 3-1 1274 1215 46.6% 15.3% 38.0% +12.7 18
1968-09-23 Fredrikstad L 0-6 1329 1255 56.2% 15.2% 28.6% -57.6 17
1968-09-23 @ Skeid W 6-0 1255 1329 28.6% 15.2% 56.2% +57.6 13
1968-10-06 Stromsgodset L 0-3 1312 1351 40.9% 15.3% 43.8% -22.7 13
1968-10-06 @ Fredrikstad W 3-0 1351 1312 43.8% 15.3% 40.9% +22.7 15
1968-10-06 Brann L 0-4 1210 1225 44.4% 15.3% 40.3% -31.8 11
1968-10-06 @ Frigg Oslo W 4-0 1225 1210 40.3% 15.3% 44.4% +31.8 16
1968-10-06 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1377 1242 62.9% 15.1% 22.0% -1.9 20
1968-10-06 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1242 1377 22.0% 15.1% 62.9% +1.9 13
1968-10-06 Skeid W 3-0 1287 1271 48.6% 15.3% 36.0% +20.4 20
1968-10-06 @ Viking L 0-3 1271 1287 36.0% 15.3% 48.6% -20.4 17
1968-10-08 Valerenga W 2-0 1407 1202 69.3% 14.9% 15.8% +6.7 26
1968-10-08 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1202 1407 15.8% 14.9% 69.3% -6.7 9
1968-10-13 Viking D 2-2 1256 1308 39.2% 15.3% 45.5% +0.2 17
1968-10-13 @ Brann D 2-2 1308 1256 45.5% 15.3% 39.2% -0.2 21
1968-10-13 Lyn Oslo L 0-4 1244 1413 24.4% 15.1% 60.5% -18.8 13
1968-10-13 @ Sarpsborg W 4-0 1413 1244 60.5% 15.1% 24.4% +18.8 28
1968-10-13 Rosenborg L 0-2 1251 1375 29.6% 15.2% 55.2% -11.8 17
1968-10-13 @ Skeid W 2-0 1375 1251 55.2% 15.2% 29.6% +11.8 22
1968-10-13 Frigg Oslo W 3-1 1374 1178 68.6% 14.9% 16.5% +6.0 17
1968-10-13 @ Stromsgodset L 1-3 1178 1374 16.5% 14.9% 68.6% -6.0 11
1968-10-15 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1196 1290 33.4% 15.3% 51.3% +0.8 10
1968-10-15 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1290 1196 51.3% 15.3% 33.4% -0.8 14
1968-10-20 Brann L 1-3 1289 1257 50.8% 15.3% 33.9% -16.4 14
1968-10-20 @ Fredrikstad W 3-1 1257 1289 33.9% 15.3% 50.8% +16.4 19
1968-10-20 Skeid L 0-2 1172 1239 37.0% 15.3% 47.7% -14.3 11
1968-10-20 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1239 1172 47.7% 15.3% 37.0% +14.3 19
1968-10-20 Stromsgodset L 1-6 1432 1380 53.5% 15.3% 31.3% -38.3 28
1968-10-20 @ Lyn Oslo W 6-1 1380 1432 31.3% 15.3% 53.5% +38.4 19
1968-10-20 Valerenga W 7-2 1387 1197 68.1% 14.9% 16.9% +11.5 24
1968-10-20 @ Rosenborg L 2-7 1197 1387 16.9% 14.9% 68.1% -11.5 10
1968-10-20 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1307 1226 57.1% 15.2% 27.7% -11.2 21
1968-10-20 @ Viking W 1-0 1226 1307 27.7% 15.2% 57.1% +11.2 15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1968-06-11 16.02% Brann 1210 4 @ Lyn Oslo 1412 1
2 1968-08-11 22.14% Viking 1192 3 @ Stromsgodset 1325 2
3 1968-05-05 26.00% Viking 1234 2 @ Rosenborg 1331 1
4 1968-08-25 26.43% @ Frigg Oslo 1242 2 Rosenborg 1393 1
5 1968-10-20 27.68% Sarpsborg 1226 1 @ Viking 1307 0
6 1968-09-23 28.58% Fredrikstad 1255 6 @ Skeid 1329 0
7 1968-07-28 30.55% Skeid 1286 2 @ Stromsgodset 1344 1
8 1968-10-20 31.26% Stromsgodset 1380 6 @ Lyn Oslo 1432 1
9 1968-08-12 31.56% Sarpsborg 1220 1 @ Valerenga 1270 0
10 1968-08-11 31.81% Lyn Oslo 1360 4 @ Rosenborg 1408 2
11 1968-05-13 32.10% @ Brann 1224 2 Skeid 1328 0
12 1968-04-28 32.13% Stromsgodset 1290 4 @ Skeid 1335 2
13 1968-04-28 32.23% @ Viking 1224 2 Lyn Oslo 1327 1
14 1968-06-16 32.35% @ Stromsgodset 1279 10 Lyn Oslo 1381 1
15 1968-05-19 32.68% Sarpsborg 1266 1 @ Stromsgodset 1307 0
16 1968-06-12 32.83% Skeid 1259 2 @ Fredrikstad 1300 0
17 1968-08-25 33.30% @ Viking 1203 3 Fredrikstad 1297 0
18 1968-08-07 33.77% @ Brann 1243 2 Stromsgodset 1334 1
19 1968-10-20 33.90% Brann 1257 3 @ Fredrikstad 1289 1
20 1968-08-25 34.84% @ Sarpsborg 1231 2 Stromsgodset 1314 0
21 1968-09-22 35.35% @ Stromsgodset 1324 3 Rosenborg 1404 0
22 1968-05-11 36.36% @ Viking 1245 2 Stromsgodset 1316 1
23 1968-04-25 36.41% Valerenga 1283 2 @ Frigg Oslo 1297 1
24 1968-07-28 36.77% Brann 1234 2 @ Sarpsborg 1245 1
25 1968-04-28 38.37% @ Brann 1219 2 Sarpsborg 1276 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1968-06-16 65.17 @ Stromsgodset 10 1279 32.35% Lyn Oslo 1 1381 52.39% 15.26%
2 1968-09-23 57.61 Fredrikstad 6 1255 28.58% @ Skeid 0 1329 56.17% 15.24%
3 1968-09-08 43.82 @ Viking 6 1231 43.33% Frigg Oslo 0 1253 41.35% 15.32%
4 1968-10-20 38.35 Stromsgodset 6 1380 31.26% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1432 53.47% 15.27%
5 1968-05-26 35.04 @ Rosenborg 6 1334 52.81% Skeid 0 1287 31.90% 15.28%
6 1968-10-06 31.77 Brann 4 1225 40.33% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1210 44.35% 15.32%
7 1968-05-06 31.33 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1317 50.52% Frigg Oslo 0 1288 34.18% 15.30%
8 1968-06-11 31.17 Brann 4 1210 16.02% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1412 69.08% 14.89%
9 1968-07-28 30.03 @ Lyn Oslo 11 1316 57.40% Viking 2 1231 27.38% 15.23%
10 1968-09-08 29.22 Stromsgodset 6 1295 45.45% @ Valerenga 1 1244 39.24% 15.31%
11 1968-08-25 27.74 @ Viking 3 1203 33.30% Fredrikstad 0 1297 51.43% 15.27%
12 1968-05-23 27.62 Rosenborg 4 1307 47.06% @ Brann 0 1244 37.63% 15.30%
13 1968-09-22 26.73 @ Stromsgodset 3 1324 35.35% Rosenborg 0 1404 49.37% 15.29%
14 1968-10-06 22.72 Stromsgodset 3 1351 43.76% @ Fredrikstad 0 1312 40.92% 15.32%
15 1968-05-20 21.86 Lyn Oslo 3 1360 45.57% @ Skeid 0 1309 39.12% 15.31%
16 1968-09-08 21.48 @ Rosenborg 7 1382 62.00% Brann 1 1256 22.87% 15.14%
17 1968-08-08 21.13 @ Skeid 3 1296 47.07% Valerenga 0 1292 37.61% 15.32%
18 1968-05-26 20.79 @ Frigg Oslo 4 1249 39.65% Stromsgodset 1 1297 45.04% 15.31%
19 1968-10-06 20.38 @ Viking 3 1287 48.65% Skeid 0 1271 36.04% 15.31%
20 1968-05-13 19.51 @ Brann 2 1224 32.10% Skeid 0 1328 52.64% 15.26%
21 1968-06-12 19.25 Skeid 2 1259 32.83% @ Fredrikstad 0 1300 51.88% 15.29%
22 1968-10-13 18.85 Lyn Oslo 4 1413 60.47% @ Sarpsborg 0 1244 24.41% 15.12%
23 1968-08-25 18.58 @ Sarpsborg 2 1231 34.84% Stromsgodset 0 1314 49.88% 15.28%
24 1968-04-28 17.39 @ Brann 2 1219 38.37% Sarpsborg 0 1276 46.32% 15.31%
25 1968-06-12 16.55 Valerenga 2 1267 40.96% @ Viking 0 1247 43.72% 15.32%