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1967 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

25 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

5.04 points above expected

25 points · 19.96 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IF Odd

3.63 points below expected

12 points · 15.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg 18 9 7 2 25 40 24 +16 19.96 +5.04
2 Skeid 18 10 2 6 22 42 26 +16 18.60 +3.40
3 Lyn Oslo 18 9 3 6 21 39 30 +9 20.26 +0.74
4 Frigg Oslo 18 8 4 6 20 22 22 0 17.61 +2.39
5 Valerenga 18 7 4 7 18 27 33 -6 17.28 +0.72
6 Fredrikstad 18 7 2 9 16 27 25 +2 19.54 -3.54
7 Sarpsborg 18 5 6 7 16 18 24 -6 16.77 -0.77
8 Stromsgodset 18 7 1 10 15 30 34 -4 17.25 -2.25
9 Steinkjer 18 5 5 8 15 21 31 -10 17.10 -2.10
10 IF Odd 18 5 2 11 12 18 35 -17 15.63 -3.63

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skeid 1388 22 18.60 +3.40 86.5% 6 13 16 19 21 24 31
Lyn Oslo 1372 21 20.26 +0.74 63.5% 8 15 18 20 23 26 33
Rosenborg 1362 25 19.96 +5.04 94.8% 8 14 18 20 22 26 32
Fredrikstad 1333 16 19.54 -3.54 18.8% 7 14 17 20 22 25 32
Frigg Oslo 1299 20 17.61 +2.39 79.7% 4 12 15 18 20 23 29
Stromsgodset 1281 15 17.25 -2.25 30.2% 5 12 15 17 20 23 30
Valerenga 1268 18 17.28 +0.72 63.9% 3 12 15 17 20 23 31
Sarpsborg 1249 16 16.77 -0.77 46.5% 3 11 14 17 19 22 30
Steinkjer 1241 15 17.10 -2.10 32.7% 3 11 15 17 19 23 32
IF Odd 1214 12 15.63 -3.63 18.6% 4 10 13 16 18 21 28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FRE FO IO LO ROS SAR SKE STE STR VAL
Fredrikstad —
0-0-2
3.09
2-0-0
3.34
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-2
3.25
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.05
Frigg Oslo
2-0-0
2.50
 —
1-1-0
3.05
0-0-2
2.47
0-2-0
2.37
2-0-0
2.88
0-0-2
2.63
0-1-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.88
IF Odd
0-0-2
2.25
0-1-1
2.53
 —
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
1.99
0-0-2
2.69
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
2.43
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.60
Lyn Oslo
1-1-0
2.90
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.40
 —
1-0-1
2.81
1-1-0
3.28
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.18
1-0-1
3.38
0-0-2
3.39
Rosenborg
1-1-0
2.74
0-2-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.76
 —
0-1-1
3.21
2-0-0
2.88
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.16
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
2.40
0-0-2
2.70
2-0-0
2.89
0-1-1
2.31
1-1-0
2.38
 —
0-1-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.71
Skeid
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.95
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.71
1-1-0
3.05
 —
2-0-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
2.91
Steinkjer
2-0-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.67
0-0-2
3.15
0-1-1
2.40
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.90
0-0-2
2.48
 —
1-0-1
2.82
1-1-0
2.74
Stromsgodset
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.21
0-0-2
2.47
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.76
 —
1-0-1
2.71
Valerenga
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.70
2-0-0
2.98
2-0-0
2.19
0-1-1
2.43
1-1-0
2.87
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.63 +3.4
Allowed 0.33 -4.8
Differential 0.84 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%5.56%1.67%3.89%0.56%25.56%
18.33%7.78%7.22%3.33%2.22%—28.89%
25.56%7.22%4.44%2.78%2.22%1.11%23.33%
31.67%3.33%2.78%2.22%0.56%0.56%11.11%
43.89%2.22%2.22%0.56%——8.89%
5+0.56%—1.11%0.56%——2.22%
Total25.56%28.89%23.33%11.11%8.89%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.58 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.04
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.39 +0.11
SD 1.15 0.98 1.68
CV 0.77 0.70 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%——5.56%—33.33%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%55.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.06 1.11 1.50
CV 0.87 0.91 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%50.00%11.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.94 -0.94
SD 0.97 1.47 2.04
CV 0.97 0.76 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%——11.11%—22.22%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total27.78%16.67%33.33%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.67 +0.50
SD 2.01 1.41 2.26
CV 0.93 0.85 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
25.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.33 +0.89
SD 1.70 1.19 2.11
CV 0.76 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
116.67%11.11%11.11%———38.89%
25.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%27.78%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.33 -0.33
SD 0.91 1.37 1.71
CV 0.91 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
116.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
422.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
5+———————
Total44.44%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.44 +0.89
SD 1.46 1.76 2.30
CV 0.62 1.22 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
216.67%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%22.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.72 -0.56
SD 0.92 2.05 2.06
CV 0.79 1.19 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%—11.11%—38.89%
15.56%——11.11%——16.67%
2———11.11%——11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.89 -0.22
SD 1.71 1.23 2.32
CV 1.03 0.65 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%33.33%11.11%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.83 -0.33
SD 1.25 1.38 1.97
CV 0.83 0.75 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rosenborg 25 19.96 +5.04
2 Skeid 22 18.60 +3.40
3 Frigg Oslo 20 17.61 +2.39
4 Lyn Oslo 21 20.26 +0.74
5 Valerenga 18 17.28 +0.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Odd 12 15.63 -3.63
2 Fredrikstad 16 19.54 -3.54
3 Stromsgodset 15 17.25 -2.25
4 Steinkjer 15 17.10 -2.10
5 Sarpsborg 16 16.77 -0.77

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 3 Sep 7 – Oct 6 1 in 28
2 Frigg Oslo 3 Oct 8 – Oct 22 1 in 27
3 Steinkjer 3 May 28 – Jun 11 1 in 20
4 Skeid 4 Aug 10 – Sep 17 1 in 16
5 Sarpsborg 2 Apr 30 – May 7 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stromsgodset 5 May 4 – May 25 1 in 38
2 Sarpsborg 3 Jun 4 – Jun 18 1 in 14
3 IF Odd 4 Sep 10 – Oct 15 1 in 14
4 Skeid 3 Apr 28 – May 10 1 in 14
5 Frigg Oslo 3 Jun 22 – Aug 6 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rosenborg 9 Jun 4 – Sep 17 1 in 39
2 Skeid 7 Aug 10 – Oct 22 1 in 17
3 Valerenga 5 Apr 30 – May 22 1 in 12
4 Frigg Oslo 4 Sep 17 – Oct 22 1 in 7
5 Fredrikstad 4 Jun 11 – Aug 7 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 7 Jun 4 – Aug 16 1 in 25
2 Lyn Oslo 3 May 11 – May 22 1 in 11
3 Steinkjer 5 Apr 30 – May 19 1 in 10
4 Valerenga 4 May 28 – Jun 19 1 in 8
5 Frigg Oslo 4 Jun 22 – Aug 9 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rosenborg21.84%17.55%14.37%11.82%9.37%7.73%6.39%4.84%3.89%2.20%
Skeid13.06%12.67%12.37%11.65%10.78%10.10%9.57%7.76%7.08%4.96%
Lyn Oslo23.43%17.98%14.19%11.01%9.48%8.03%5.87%4.76%3.19%2.06%
Frigg Oslo6.32%8.11%9.61%10.99%11.33%12.00%11.17%10.81%10.51%9.15%
Valerenga4.87%6.66%8.32%9.66%10.13%11.37%12.15%12.78%12.53%11.53%
Fredrikstad15.40%15.41%14.29%12.08%11.25%8.95%7.95%6.67%4.77%3.23%
Sarpsborg3.68%5.69%7.40%8.39%9.74%10.84%11.80%13.11%14.49%14.86%
Stromsgodset5.18%7.23%7.62%9.50%10.85%11.55%12.18%12.49%11.95%11.45%
Steinkjer4.42%5.89%7.44%9.16%9.92%10.92%11.60%13.44%13.36%13.85%
IF Odd1.80%2.81%4.39%5.74%7.15%8.51%11.32%13.34%18.23%26.71%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.67%
Strong Edge
53.33%20.00%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
145 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
094.94400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.64 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.66+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.4
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
22%
Rosenborg, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.77 * Some Luck: 2.77 to 4.15 * Lucky: 4.15 to 5.53 * Wild Swing: 5.53 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.01 * Close: 2.01 to 3.02 * Off: 3.02 to 4.03 * Way Off: 4.03 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.82 points
Some Luck
03.469
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
02.526
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.82%
Rosenborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
18.63%
IF Odd
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.93
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
73%
Clear Edge
50%76%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.67
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.64
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.80
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.089
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo 94.75% 5.25%
Rosenborg 93.91% 6.09%
Fredrikstad 92.00% 8.00%
Skeid 87.96% 12.04%
Frigg Oslo 80.34% 19.66%
Stromsgodset 76.60% 23.40%
Valerenga 75.94% 24.06%
Steinkjer 72.79% 27.21%
Sarpsborg 70.65% 29.35%
IF Odd 55.06% 44.94%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1967-04-27 Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1338 1291 62.0% 20.6% 17.4% +3.6 2
1967-04-27 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1291 1338 17.4% 20.6% 62.0% -3.6 0
1967-04-28 Skeid W 3-1 1302 1317 55.8% 21.0% 23.2% +7.5 2
1967-04-28 @ Stromsgodset L 1-3 1317 1302 23.2% 21.0% 55.8% -7.5 0
1967-04-30 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1304 1337 53.7% 21.1% 25.2% +4.7 2
1967-04-30 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1337 1304 25.2% 21.1% 53.7% -4.7 0
1967-04-30 Steinkjer W 1-0 1269 1287 55.4% 21.0% 23.5% +4.7 2
1967-04-30 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1287 1269 23.5% 21.0% 55.4% -4.7 0
1967-04-30 IF Odd W 3-0 1289 1271 59.2% 20.8% 19.9% +11.0 2
1967-04-30 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1271 1289 19.9% 20.8% 59.2% -11.0 0
1967-05-04 Stromsgodset W 1-0 1287 1310 54.9% 21.1% 24.0% +4.7 2
1967-05-04 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1310 1287 24.0% 21.1% 54.9% -4.7 2
1967-05-06 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1260 1341 47.8% 21.2% 31.0% -15.7 0
1967-05-06 @ IF Odd W 2-0 1341 1260 31.0% 21.2% 47.8% +15.7 4
1967-05-07 Sarpsborg L 0-2 1332 1274 63.0% 20.6% 16.5% -20.3 0
1967-05-07 @ Fredrikstad W 2-0 1274 1332 16.5% 20.6% 63.0% +20.4 4
1967-05-07 Rosenborg L 2-5 1310 1308 57.5% 20.9% 21.6% -19.8 0
1967-05-07 @ Skeid W 5-2 1308 1310 21.6% 20.9% 57.5% +19.8 4
1967-05-07 Valerenga D 1-1 1283 1300 55.5% 21.0% 23.5% -1.3 1
1967-05-07 @ Steinkjer D 1-1 1300 1283 23.5% 21.0% 55.5% +1.3 3
1967-05-10 Skeid W 2-1 1312 1290 59.6% 20.8% 19.6% +3.7 2
1967-05-10 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1290 1312 19.6% 20.8% 59.6% -3.7 0
1967-05-10 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1244 1305 50.4% 21.2% 28.4% +8.9 2
1967-05-10 @ IF Odd L 1-3 1305 1244 28.4% 21.2% 50.4% -8.9 2
1967-05-10 Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1328 1292 60.9% 20.7% 18.3% -1.9 5
1967-05-10 @ Rosenborg D 0-0 1292 1328 18.3% 20.7% 60.9% +1.9 3
1967-05-10 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1302 1294 58.1% 20.9% 21.0% +4.2 5
1967-05-10 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1294 1302 21.0% 20.9% 58.1% -4.2 4
1967-05-11 Steinkjer D 0-0 1357 1282 64.5% 20.4% 15.1% -2.3 5
1967-05-11 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1282 1357 15.1% 20.4% 64.5% +2.3 2
1967-05-15 IF Odd L 1-2 1284 1253 60.4% 20.8% 18.8% -9.8 2
1967-05-15 @ Steinkjer W 2-1 1253 1284 18.8% 20.8% 60.4% +9.8 4
1967-05-15 Rosenborg L 0-1 1296 1326 54.1% 21.1% 24.9% -9.3 2
1967-05-15 @ Stromsgodset W 1-0 1326 1296 24.9% 21.1% 54.1% +9.3 7
1967-05-16 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1294 1316 55.0% 21.1% 23.9% +4.4 5
1967-05-16 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1316 1294 23.9% 21.1% 55.0% -4.5 2
1967-05-16 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1290 1355 49.9% 21.2% 28.9% -0.9 5
1967-05-16 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1355 1290 28.9% 21.2% 49.9% +0.9 6
1967-05-18 Skeid D 0-0 1306 1286 59.4% 20.8% 19.8% -1.8 6
1967-05-18 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1286 1306 19.8% 20.8% 59.4% +1.8 1
1967-05-19 Steinkjer W 2-1 1335 1274 63.3% 20.5% 16.2% +3.2 9
1967-05-19 @ Rosenborg L 1-2 1274 1335 16.2% 20.5% 63.3% -3.2 2
1967-05-20 Stromsgodset W 4-0 1311 1287 59.8% 20.8% 19.4% +14.1 4
1967-05-20 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1287 1311 19.4% 20.8% 59.8% -14.1 2
1967-05-21 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1263 1289 54.5% 21.1% 24.4% -9.4 4
1967-05-21 @ IF Odd W 1-0 1289 1263 24.4% 21.1% 54.5% +9.4 7
1967-05-22 Valerenga L 1-2 1356 1304 62.4% 20.6% 17.0% -10.1 6
1967-05-22 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1304 1356 17.0% 20.6% 62.4% +10.1 8
1967-05-25 Stromsgodset W 3-2 1346 1273 64.2% 20.4% 15.3% +2.8 8
1967-05-25 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1273 1346 15.3% 20.4% 64.2% -2.8 2
1967-05-28 Skeid W 2-1 1254 1288 53.6% 21.1% 25.3% +4.7 6
1967-05-28 @ IF Odd L 1-2 1288 1254 25.3% 21.1% 53.6% -4.7 1
1967-05-28 Rosenborg W 1-0 1299 1339 52.9% 21.1% 26.0% +5.1 9
1967-05-28 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1339 1299 26.0% 21.1% 52.9% -5.1 9
1967-05-28 Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1271 1299 54.3% 21.1% 24.6% +4.8 4
1967-05-28 @ Steinkjer L 0-1 1299 1271 24.6% 21.1% 54.3% -4.8 5
1967-05-28 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1314 1325 56.2% 21.0% 22.8% -18.2 8
1967-05-28 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1325 1314 22.8% 21.0% 56.2% +18.2 6
1967-06-04 Steinkjer L 0-1 1343 1276 63.8% 20.5% 15.7% -10.9 6
1967-06-04 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1276 1343 15.7% 20.5% 63.8% +10.9 6
1967-06-04 IF Odd D 1-1 1294 1258 60.9% 20.7% 18.4% -1.7 6
1967-06-04 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1258 1294 18.4% 20.7% 60.9% +1.7 7
1967-06-04 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1334 1349 55.8% 21.0% 23.2% +8.7 11
1967-06-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1349 1334 23.2% 21.0% 55.8% -8.7 8
1967-06-04 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1283 1304 55.1% 21.1% 23.8% +16.8 3
1967-06-04 @ Skeid L 0-4 1304 1283 23.8% 21.1% 55.1% -16.8 9
1967-06-04 Valerenga W 4-1 1270 1296 54.5% 21.1% 24.4% +11.1 4
1967-06-04 @ Stromsgodset L 1-4 1296 1270 24.4% 21.1% 54.5% -11.1 8
1967-06-11 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1260 1333 48.9% 21.2% 29.9% -8.5 7
1967-06-11 @ IF Odd W 1-0 1333 1260 29.9% 21.2% 48.9% +8.5 8
1967-06-11 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1287 1281 58.0% 20.9% 21.1% +8.0 8
1967-06-11 @ Steinkjer L 0-2 1281 1287 21.1% 20.9% 58.0% -8.0 4
1967-06-11 Rosenborg D 3-3 1285 1342 50.8% 21.2% 28.0% -0.5 9
1967-06-11 @ Valerenga D 3-3 1342 1285 28.0% 21.2% 50.8% +0.5 12
1967-06-12 Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1287 1292 56.8% 21.0% 22.2% -9.2 9
1967-06-12 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1292 1287 22.2% 21.0% 56.8% +9.2 8
1967-06-13 Skeid W 5-3 1340 1300 61.3% 20.7% 18.0% +5.1 10
1967-06-13 @ Lyn Oslo L 3-5 1300 1340 18.0% 20.7% 61.3% -5.1 3
1967-06-18 IF Odd W 6-0 1343 1252 65.7% 20.2% 14.0% +15.4 14
1967-06-18 @ Rosenborg L 0-6 1252 1343 14.0% 20.2% 65.7% -15.4 7
1967-06-18 Steinkjer W 1-0 1295 1295 57.4% 20.9% 21.6% +4.3 5
1967-06-18 @ Skeid L 0-1 1295 1295 21.6% 20.9% 57.4% -4.3 8
1967-06-18 Sarpsborg W 4-2 1273 1278 56.9% 21.0% 22.2% +6.5 6
1967-06-18 @ Stromsgodset L 2-4 1278 1273 22.2% 21.0% 56.9% -6.5 9
1967-06-19 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1341 1345 57.0% 21.0% 22.1% -1.4 9
1967-06-19 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1345 1341 22.1% 21.0% 57.0% +1.4 11
1967-06-19 Valerenga W 3-1 1301 1284 59.1% 20.9% 20.0% +6.6 10
1967-06-19 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-3 1284 1301 20.0% 20.9% 59.1% -6.6 9
1967-06-22 Frigg Oslo W 4-0 1299 1308 56.5% 21.0% 22.6% +16.1 7
1967-06-22 @ Skeid L 0-4 1308 1299 22.6% 21.0% 56.5% -16.1 10
1967-07-30 Rosenborg D 2-2 1340 1358 55.4% 21.0% 23.6% -0.9 10
1967-07-30 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1358 1340 23.6% 21.0% 55.4% +0.9 15
1967-07-30 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1290 1271 59.3% 20.8% 19.9% -1.2 9
1967-07-30 @ Steinkjer D 2-2 1271 1290 19.9% 20.8% 59.3% +1.2 10
1967-07-31 Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1292 1346 51.1% 21.2% 27.7% -14.5 10
1967-07-31 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-1 1346 1292 27.7% 21.2% 51.1% +14.5 13
1967-07-31 Valerenga L 2-3 1236 1278 52.7% 21.1% 26.2% -8.2 7
1967-07-31 @ IF Odd W 3-2 1278 1236 26.2% 21.1% 52.7% +8.2 11
1967-08-02 Stromsgodset W 4-0 1315 1279 61.0% 20.7% 18.3% +13.4 9
1967-08-02 @ Skeid L 0-4 1279 1315 18.3% 20.7% 61.0% -13.4 6
1967-08-06 IF Odd L 1-2 1361 1228 68.8% 19.8% 11.4% -11.1 13
1967-08-06 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1228 1361 11.4% 19.8% 68.8% +11.1 9
1967-08-06 Skeid W 4-3 1359 1329 60.4% 20.8% 18.8% +3.3 17
1967-08-06 @ Rosenborg L 3-4 1329 1359 18.8% 20.8% 60.4% -3.3 9
1967-08-06 Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1266 1277 56.1% 21.0% 22.8% +4.5 8
1967-08-06 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1277 1266 22.8% 21.0% 56.1% -4.5 10
1967-08-06 Steinkjer L 0-2 1286 1289 57.0% 21.0% 22.0% -18.5 11
1967-08-06 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1289 1286 22.0% 21.0% 57.0% +18.5 11
1967-08-07 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1272 1339 49.7% 21.2% 29.1% -23.6 10
1967-08-07 @ Sarpsborg W 3-0 1339 1272 29.1% 21.2% 49.7% +23.6 12
1967-08-09 Rosenborg D 2-2 1273 1362 46.7% 21.2% 32.1% -0.4 11
1967-08-09 @ Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1362 1273 32.1% 21.2% 46.7% +0.4 18
1967-08-09 IF Odd W 4-1 1271 1239 60.5% 20.8% 18.7% +8.8 10
1967-08-09 @ Stromsgodset L 1-4 1239 1271 18.7% 20.8% 60.5% -8.8 9
1967-08-10 Valerenga D 1-1 1249 1267 55.4% 21.0% 23.6% -1.3 11
1967-08-10 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1267 1249 23.6% 21.0% 55.4% +1.2 12
1967-08-10 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1325 1362 53.3% 21.1% 25.6% +5.0 11
1967-08-10 @ Skeid L 0-1 1362 1325 25.6% 21.1% 53.3% -5.0 12
1967-08-16 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1350 1248 66.6% 20.1% 13.3% +2.6 15
1967-08-16 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1248 1350 13.3% 20.1% 66.6% -2.6 11
1967-08-16 Steinkjer W 2-0 1230 1308 48.3% 21.2% 30.5% +10.9 11
1967-08-16 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1308 1230 30.5% 21.2% 48.3% -10.9 11
1967-08-20 Lyn Oslo L 2-8 1297 1352 51.0% 21.2% 27.8% -31.6 11
1967-08-20 @ Steinkjer W 8-2 1352 1297 27.8% 21.2% 51.0% +31.6 17
1967-08-20 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1363 1279 65.1% 20.3% 14.6% +5.0 20
1967-08-20 @ Rosenborg L 1-3 1279 1363 14.6% 20.3% 65.1% -5.0 10
1967-08-21 Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1357 1272 65.2% 20.3% 14.5% -10.5 12
1967-08-21 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1272 1357 14.5% 20.3% 65.2% +10.5 13
1967-08-21 Valerenga W 4-1 1330 1269 63.3% 20.5% 16.2% +7.7 13
1967-08-21 @ Skeid L 1-4 1269 1330 16.2% 20.5% 63.3% -7.7 12
1967-09-07 Lyn Oslo W 4-2 1261 1384 42.1% 21.2% 36.7% +9.8 14
1967-09-07 @ Valerenga L 2-4 1384 1261 36.7% 21.2% 42.1% -9.8 17
1967-09-10 Skeid L 0-1 1283 1338 51.1% 21.2% 27.8% -8.8 13
1967-09-10 @ Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1338 1283 27.8% 21.2% 51.1% +8.8 15
1967-09-10 IF Odd W 3-0 1245 1241 57.8% 20.9% 21.3% +11.7 13
1967-09-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1241 1245 21.3% 20.9% 57.8% -11.7 11
1967-09-10 Rosenborg D 1-1 1265 1368 44.9% 21.2% 33.9% -0.4 12
1967-09-10 @ Steinkjer D 1-1 1368 1265 33.9% 21.2% 44.9% +0.4 21
1967-09-10 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1274 1347 48.9% 21.2% 29.9% -7.6 10
1967-09-10 @ Stromsgodset W 3-2 1347 1274 29.9% 21.2% 48.9% +7.6 14
1967-09-17 Valerenga L 2-3 1354 1271 65.1% 20.3% 14.5% -10.0 14
1967-09-17 @ Fredrikstad W 3-2 1271 1354 14.5% 20.3% 65.1% +10.0 16
1967-09-17 Steinkjer D 3-3 1274 1265 58.3% 20.9% 20.8% -0.9 14
1967-09-17 @ Frigg Oslo D 3-3 1265 1274 20.8% 20.9% 58.3% +0.9 13
1967-09-17 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1368 1257 67.3% 20.0% 12.7% -1.7 22
1967-09-17 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1257 1368 12.7% 20.0% 67.3% +1.7 14
1967-09-17 IF Odd W 3-1 1347 1230 67.7% 20.0% 12.3% +4.2 17
1967-09-17 @ Skeid L 1-3 1230 1347 12.3% 20.0% 67.7% -4.2 11
1967-09-17 Lyn Oslo W 4-1 1267 1374 44.3% 21.2% 34.5% +14.7 12
1967-09-17 @ Stromsgodset L 1-4 1374 1267 34.5% 21.2% 44.3% -14.7 17
1967-10-06 Stromsgodset W 2-0 1281 1282 57.3% 21.0% 21.8% +8.2 18
1967-10-06 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1282 1281 21.8% 21.0% 57.3% -8.2 12
1967-10-08 Rosenborg W 4-0 1359 1367 56.6% 21.0% 22.4% +16.0 19
1967-10-08 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-4 1367 1359 22.4% 21.0% 56.6% -16.0 22
1967-10-08 Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1225 1273 52.0% 21.1% 26.9% -9.0 11
1967-10-08 @ IF Odd W 1-0 1273 1225 26.9% 21.1% 52.0% +9.0 16
1967-10-08 Fredrikstad W 2-0 1266 1344 48.1% 21.2% 30.7% +11.0 15
1967-10-08 @ Steinkjer L 0-2 1344 1266 30.7% 21.2% 48.1% -11.0 14
1967-10-09 Skeid D 1-1 1258 1351 46.3% 21.2% 32.5% -0.5 15
1967-10-09 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1351 1258 32.5% 21.2% 46.3% +0.5 18
1967-10-12 Lyn Oslo W 4-2 1352 1375 54.8% 21.1% 24.1% +7.0 20
1967-10-12 @ Skeid L 2-4 1375 1352 24.1% 21.1% 54.8% -7.0 19
1967-10-15 IF Odd W 2-1 1333 1216 67.7% 20.0% 12.3% +2.5 16
1967-10-15 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1216 1333 12.3% 20.0% 67.7% -2.5 11
1967-10-15 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1282 1258 59.8% 20.8% 19.4% +7.4 18
1967-10-15 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-2 1258 1282 19.4% 20.8% 59.8% -7.4 15
1967-10-15 Valerenga W 4-0 1351 1289 63.3% 20.5% 16.2% +12.0 24
1967-10-15 @ Rosenborg L 0-4 1289 1351 16.2% 20.5% 63.3% -12.0 18
1967-10-15 Steinkjer W 4-2 1273 1277 57.0% 21.0% 22.0% +6.4 14
1967-10-15 @ Stromsgodset L 2-4 1277 1273 22.0% 21.0% 57.0% -6.4 15
1967-10-22 Fredrikstad W 3-2 1368 1336 60.6% 20.8% 18.6% +3.4 21
1967-10-22 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1336 1368 18.6% 20.8% 60.6% -3.4 16
1967-10-22 Rosenborg D 1-1 1214 1363 38.5% 21.1% 40.3% +0.1 12
1967-10-22 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1363 1214 40.3% 21.1% 38.5% -0.1 25
1967-10-22 Stromsgodset D 0-0 1250 1280 54.1% 21.1% 24.8% -1.3 16
1967-10-22 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1280 1250 24.8% 21.1% 54.1% +1.3 15
1967-10-22 Skeid L 0-4 1270 1359 46.8% 21.2% 32.0% -29.3 15
1967-10-22 @ Steinkjer W 4-0 1359 1270 32.0% 21.2% 46.8% +29.3 22
1967-10-22 Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1277 1290 56.0% 21.0% 23.0% -9.1 18
1967-10-22 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1290 1277 23.0% 21.0% 56.0% +9.1 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1967-08-06 11.43% IF Odd 1228 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1361 1
2 1967-08-21 14.46% Frigg Oslo 1272 2 @ Fredrikstad 1357 1
3 1967-09-17 14.55% Valerenga 1271 3 @ Fredrikstad 1354 2
4 1967-06-04 15.73% Steinkjer 1276 1 @ Fredrikstad 1343 0
5 1967-05-07 16.47% Sarpsborg 1274 2 @ Fredrikstad 1332 0
6 1967-05-22 16.99% Valerenga 1304 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1356 1
7 1967-05-15 18.80% IF Odd 1253 2 @ Steinkjer 1284 1
8 1967-05-07 21.55% Rosenborg 1308 5 @ Skeid 1310 2
9 1967-08-06 22.02% Steinkjer 1289 2 @ Valerenga 1286 0
10 1967-06-12 22.20% Frigg Oslo 1292 2 @ Sarpsborg 1287 1
11 1967-05-28 22.83% Fredrikstad 1325 2 @ Valerenga 1314 0
12 1967-10-22 22.99% Frigg Oslo 1290 2 @ Valerenga 1277 1
13 1967-05-21 24.44% Sarpsborg 1289 1 @ IF Odd 1263 0
14 1967-05-15 24.85% Rosenborg 1326 1 @ Stromsgodset 1296 0
15 1967-07-31 26.15% Valerenga 1278 3 @ IF Odd 1236 2
16 1967-10-08 26.89% Frigg Oslo 1273 1 @ IF Odd 1225 0
17 1967-07-31 27.68% Lyn Oslo 1346 3 @ Frigg Oslo 1292 1
18 1967-09-10 27.77% Skeid 1338 1 @ Frigg Oslo 1283 0
19 1967-08-20 27.82% Lyn Oslo 1352 8 @ Steinkjer 1297 2
20 1967-08-07 29.11% Fredrikstad 1339 3 @ Sarpsborg 1272 0
21 1967-09-10 29.87% Fredrikstad 1347 3 @ Stromsgodset 1274 2
22 1967-06-11 29.89% Fredrikstad 1333 1 @ IF Odd 1260 0
23 1967-05-06 31.03% Lyn Oslo 1341 2 @ IF Odd 1260 0
24 1967-10-22 31.97% Skeid 1359 4 @ Steinkjer 1270 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1967-08-20 31.61 Lyn Oslo 8 1352 27.82% @ Steinkjer 2 1297 51.02% 21.17%
2 1967-10-22 29.29 Skeid 4 1359 31.97% @ Steinkjer 0 1270 46.82% 21.21%
3 1967-08-07 23.63 Fredrikstad 3 1339 29.11% @ Sarpsborg 0 1272 49.70% 21.19%
4 1967-05-07 20.35 Sarpsborg 2 1274 16.47% @ Fredrikstad 0 1332 62.97% 20.56%
5 1967-05-07 19.75 Rosenborg 5 1308 21.55% @ Skeid 2 1310 57.50% 20.95%
6 1967-08-06 18.47 Steinkjer 2 1289 22.02% @ Valerenga 0 1286 57.01% 20.97%
7 1967-05-28 18.21 Fredrikstad 2 1325 22.83% @ Valerenga 0 1314 56.16% 21.01%
8 1967-06-04 16.83 @ Skeid 4 1283 55.14% Sarpsborg 0 1304 23.81% 21.05%
9 1967-06-22 16.06 @ Skeid 4 1299 56.45% Frigg Oslo 0 1308 22.55% 21.00%
10 1967-10-08 15.98 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1359 56.60% Rosenborg 0 1367 22.41% 20.99%
11 1967-05-06 15.71 Lyn Oslo 2 1341 31.03% @ IF Odd 0 1260 47.77% 21.20%
12 1967-06-18 15.36 @ Rosenborg 6 1343 65.72% IF Odd 0 1252 14.02% 20.25%
13 1967-09-17 14.74 @ Stromsgodset 4 1267 44.33% Lyn Oslo 1 1374 34.47% 21.20%
14 1967-07-31 14.46 Lyn Oslo 3 1346 27.68% @ Frigg Oslo 1 1292 51.15% 21.16%
15 1967-05-20 14.06 @ Fredrikstad 4 1311 59.84% Stromsgodset 0 1287 19.35% 20.81%
16 1967-08-02 13.39 @ Skeid 4 1315 60.95% Stromsgodset 0 1279 18.32% 20.73%
17 1967-10-15 11.99 @ Rosenborg 4 1351 63.28% Valerenga 0 1289 16.19% 20.53%
18 1967-09-10 11.72 @ Sarpsborg 3 1245 57.75% IF Odd 0 1241 21.31% 20.94%
19 1967-08-06 11.11 IF Odd 2 1228 11.43% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1361 68.77% 19.80%
20 1967-06-04 11.09 @ Stromsgodset 4 1270 54.52% Valerenga 1 1296 24.40% 21.07%
21 1967-04-30 11.05 @ Valerenga 3 1289 59.22% IF Odd 0 1271 19.93% 20.85%
22 1967-10-08 10.96 @ Steinkjer 2 1266 48.10% Fredrikstad 0 1344 30.70% 21.20%
23 1967-06-04 10.94 Steinkjer 1 1276 15.73% @ Fredrikstad 0 1343 63.80% 20.48%
24 1967-08-16 10.90 @ IF Odd 2 1230 48.30% Steinkjer 0 1308 30.50% 21.20%
25 1967-08-21 10.53 Frigg Oslo 2 1272 14.46% @ Fredrikstad 1 1357 65.22% 20.32%