Home / Leagues / Norway / First Division / 1966
‹ ›

1966 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Skeid

25 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Skeid

6.19 points above expected

25 points · 18.81 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hodd

4.41 points below expected

13 points · 17.41 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skeid 18 9 7 2 25 31 20 +11 18.81 +6.19
2 Fredrikstad 18 10 4 4 24 37 20 +17 18.68 +5.32
3 Lyn Oslo 18 6 9 3 21 28 24 +4 20.59 +0.41
4 Frigg Oslo 18 8 4 6 20 21 15 +6 17.45 +2.55
5 Valerenga 18 9 1 8 19 32 35 -3 17.83 +1.17
6 Steinkjer 18 7 3 8 17 31 29 +2 18.31 -1.31
7 IF Odd 18 5 4 9 14 21 29 -8 16.21 -2.21
8 Sarpsborg 18 4 6 8 14 16 24 -8 17.38 -3.38
9 Lisleby 18 4 5 9 13 22 26 -4 17.33 -4.33
10 Hodd 18 5 3 10 13 29 46 -17 17.41 -4.41

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lyn Oslo 1373 21 20.59 +0.41 60.2% 6 15 18 21 23 26 33
Fredrikstad 1368 24 18.68 +5.32 96.0% 8 13 16 19 21 24 32
Skeid 1336 25 18.81 +6.19 97.7% 6 13 17 19 21 24 32
Frigg Oslo 1287 20 17.45 +2.55 81.1% 4 12 15 17 20 23 30
Valerenga 1285 19 17.83 +1.17 68.7% 6 12 16 18 20 23 30
Steinkjer 1280 17 18.31 -1.31 40.6% 5 13 16 18 21 24 31
IF Odd 1252 14 16.21 -2.21 31.0% 5 11 14 16 18 22 29
Sarpsborg 1250 14 17.38 -3.38 19.9% 5 12 15 17 20 23 29
Lisleby 1243 13 17.33 -4.33 12.6% 5 12 15 17 20 23 30
Hodd 1227 13 17.41 -4.41 12.3% 5 12 15 17 20 23 32

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FRE FO HOD IO LIS LO SAR SKE STE VAL
Fredrikstad —
0-1-1
2.99
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.15
1-1-0
2.88
0-2-0
2.36
2-0-0
2.96
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.90
Frigg Oslo
1-1-0
2.48
 —
2-0-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.37
1-1-0
2.66
0-0-2
2.61
1-1-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.72
Hodd
0-0-2
2.31
0-0-2
2.74
 —
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.82
1-1-0
2.29
1-1-0
2.71
0-0-2
2.60
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.69
IF Odd
1-0-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.54
 —
2-0-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.01
0-0-2
2.59
0-2-0
2.29
1-0-1
2.44
0-0-2
2.68
Lisleby
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.69
2-0-0
2.64
0-0-2
2.90
 —
0-2-0
2.25
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.56
0-0-2
2.73
Lyn Oslo
0-2-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.10
0-1-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.47
0-2-0
3.22
 —
2-0-0
3.11
0-1-1
2.98
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
3.18
Sarpsborg
0-0-2
2.51
0-1-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.87
1-1-0
2.75
0-0-2
2.36
 —
0-2-0
2.52
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.47
Skeid
0-0-2
2.89
2-0-0
2.86
2-0-0
2.88
0-2-0
3.18
1-1-0
2.94
1-1-0
2.49
0-2-0
2.95
 —
1-1-0
2.87
2-0-0
2.72
Steinkjer
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.90
0-0-2
2.39
1-1-0
2.78
0-1-1
2.60
 —
2-0-0
2.81
Valerenga
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.79
2-0-0
2.79
2-0-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.29
1-0-1
3.00
0-0-2
2.75
0-0-2
2.66
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +4.3
Allowed 0.33 -2.9
Differential 0.82 +4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%10.56%2.22%4.44%0.56%0.56%25.00%
110.56%12.22%4.44%5.56%1.11%2.22%36.11%
22.22%4.44%5.56%1.11%3.33%0.56%17.22%
34.44%5.56%1.11%1.11%0.56%—12.78%
40.56%1.11%3.33%0.56%——5.56%
5+0.56%2.22%0.56%———3.33%
Total25.00%36.11%17.22%12.78%5.56%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 1.93
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—11.11%——22.22%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
2—11.11%————11.11%
311.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%44.44%—22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.11 +0.94
SD 1.70 1.13 2.39
CV 0.83 1.02 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
127.78%5.56%11.11%———44.44%
25.56%—————5.56%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total50.00%22.22%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.83 +0.33
SD 1.34 0.99 1.61
CV 1.15 1.18 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
15.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%—11.11%50.00%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%27.78%22.22%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.56 -0.94
SD 1.20 1.79 2.48
CV 0.74 0.70 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
111.11%11.11%—22.22%—5.56%50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%5.56%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.61 -0.44
SD 0.92 1.54 1.69
CV 0.79 0.96 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%27.78%5.56%———38.89%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
2—5.56%16.67%—11.11%—33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%27.78%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.44 -0.22
SD 1.48 1.15 1.63
CV 1.21 0.80 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%——16.67%
15.56%27.78%5.56%———38.89%
25.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.33 +0.22
SD 1.20 1.14 1.40
CV 0.77 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%—5.56%5.56%—44.44%
111.11%11.11%—11.11%——33.33%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%5.56%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.33 -0.44
SD 1.02 1.33 1.69
CV 1.15 1.00 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
116.67%16.67%——5.56%—38.89%
25.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%27.78%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.11 +0.61
SD 1.45 1.08 1.46
CV 0.84 0.97 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
2—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total5.56%55.56%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.61 +0.11
SD 1.64 1.09 1.97
CV 0.95 0.68 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—16.67%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
2—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
311.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.94 -0.17
SD 1.31 1.59 2.36
CV 0.74 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Skeid 25 18.81 +6.19
2 Fredrikstad 24 18.68 +5.32
3 Frigg Oslo 20 17.45 +2.55
4 Valerenga 19 17.83 +1.17
5 Lyn Oslo 21 20.59 +0.41

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hodd 13 17.41 -4.41
2 Lisleby 13 17.33 -4.33
3 Sarpsborg 14 17.38 -3.38
4 IF Odd 14 16.21 -2.21
5 Steinkjer 17 18.31 -1.31

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 5 May 15 – Jun 16 1 in 264
2 Fredrikstad 3 Jun 5 – Jun 19 1 in 37
3 Skeid 4 Jun 20 – Aug 12 1 in 26
4 Frigg Oslo 3 Apr 26 – May 8 1 in 22
5 Steinkjer 2 May 8 – May 15 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 3 Apr 24 – May 8 1 in 43
2 Hodd 3 Jun 5 – Jun 19 1 in 42
3 Lisleby 3 Sep 11 – Oct 9 1 in 32
4 Steinkjer 3 May 19 – May 30 1 in 21
5 IF Odd 3 May 1 – May 15 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 8 Jun 15 – Sep 25 1 in 18
2 IF Odd 5 Sep 11 – Oct 23 1 in 15
3 Valerenga 5 May 15 – Jun 16 1 in 12
4 Lyn Oslo 7 Apr 24 – Jun 5 1 in 11
5 Fredrikstad 6 May 23 – Aug 3 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 7 Aug 12 – Oct 23 1 in 18
2 Lisleby 5 Jun 15 – Aug 12 1 in 13
3 Lyn Oslo 3 May 15 – May 31 1 in 9
4 Hodd 5 Jun 5 – Aug 12 1 in 8
5 Skeid 3 Sep 25 – Oct 16 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Skeid14.73%13.66%12.57%11.54%10.46%9.58%8.86%7.48%6.46%4.66%
Fredrikstad14.37%13.40%12.62%11.52%10.63%9.44%8.79%7.54%6.63%5.06%
Lyn Oslo27.36%17.92%13.83%10.47%8.80%7.35%5.58%3.81%3.16%1.72%
Frigg Oslo7.06%8.92%9.47%9.96%10.24%11.44%10.91%10.77%11.04%10.19%
Valerenga7.41%9.31%9.74%10.42%10.76%10.50%11.08%10.69%10.24%9.85%
Steinkjer9.65%11.60%11.03%11.09%10.87%10.69%10.00%9.53%8.53%7.01%
IF Odd2.98%4.23%5.57%7.20%8.12%9.61%11.00%13.66%16.00%21.63%
Sarpsborg5.70%6.91%8.46%9.19%10.12%10.59%11.44%12.01%12.36%13.22%
Lisleby5.45%7.28%8.78%9.60%10.05%10.25%11.30%12.52%12.47%12.30%
Hodd5.29%6.77%7.93%9.01%9.95%10.55%11.04%11.99%13.11%14.36%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+23.33%
Clear Edge
48.89%25.56%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
162 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
082.59500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.60 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.51+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.8
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
15%
Skeid, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.71 * Some Luck: 2.71 to 4.06 * Lucky: 4.06 to 5.41 * Wild Swing: 5.41 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.17 * Close: 2.17 to 3.26 * Off: 3.26 to 4.34 * Way Off: 4.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.62 points
Some Luck
03.388
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
02.716
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.66%
Skeid
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
12.29%
Hodd
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.06
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
60%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
70%
Even
50%73%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.15
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.22
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.44
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.086
Well Within Noise
00.1340.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo 95.12% 4.88%
Skeid 88.88% 11.12%
Fredrikstad 88.31% 11.69%
Steinkjer 84.46% 15.54%
Valerenga 79.91% 20.09%
Frigg Oslo 78.77% 21.23%
Lisleby 75.23% 24.77%
Sarpsborg 74.42% 25.58%
Hodd 72.53% 27.47%
IF Odd 62.37% 37.63%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1966-04-24 Sarpsborg W 3-1 1304 1293 53.4% 26.6% 20.0% +8.0 2
1966-04-24 @ Hodd L 1-3 1293 1304 20.0% 26.6% 53.4% -8.0 0
1966-04-24 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1275 1351 43.0% 27.1% 29.9% -0.4 1
1966-04-24 @ Lisleby D 2-2 1351 1275 29.9% 27.1% 43.0% +0.4 1
1966-04-24 Skeid L 0-1 1291 1274 54.0% 26.6% 19.5% -10.8 0
1966-04-24 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1274 1291 19.5% 26.6% 54.0% +10.8 2
1966-04-26 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1253 1284 48.7% 27.0% 24.3% +5.7 2
1966-04-26 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1284 1253 24.3% 27.0% 48.7% -5.7 0
1966-05-01 Valerenga W 3-0 1278 1280 51.9% 26.8% 21.3% +14.1 2
1966-05-01 @ Fredrikstad L 0-3 1280 1278 21.3% 26.8% 51.9% -14.1 0
1966-05-01 Hodd D 1-1 1352 1312 56.3% 26.3% 17.4% -1.8 2
1966-05-01 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1312 1352 17.4% 26.3% 56.3% +1.8 3
1966-05-01 IF Odd W 1-0 1285 1280 52.7% 26.7% 20.6% +5.0 2
1966-05-01 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1280 1285 20.6% 26.7% 52.7% -5.0 0
1966-05-01 Lisleby D 2-2 1285 1274 53.3% 26.6% 20.1% -1.1 3
1966-05-01 @ Skeid D 2-2 1274 1285 20.1% 26.6% 53.3% +1.1 2
1966-05-01 Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1294 1259 55.8% 26.4% 17.8% -11.1 0
1966-05-01 @ Steinkjer W 1-0 1259 1294 17.8% 26.4% 55.8% +11.1 4
1966-05-08 Lisleby D 1-1 1292 1276 54.0% 26.6% 19.5% -1.6 3
1966-05-08 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1276 1292 19.5% 26.6% 54.0% +1.5 3
1966-05-08 IF Odd W 1-0 1270 1275 51.7% 26.8% 21.6% +5.2 6
1966-05-08 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1275 1270 21.6% 26.8% 51.7% -5.2 0
1966-05-08 Skeid L 2-3 1313 1284 55.3% 26.4% 18.3% -9.9 3
1966-05-08 @ Hodd W 3-2 1284 1313 18.3% 26.4% 55.3% +9.8 5
1966-05-08 Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1290 1350 45.1% 27.1% 27.9% -15.0 2
1966-05-08 @ Sarpsborg W 3-1 1350 1290 27.9% 27.1% 45.1% +15.0 4
1966-05-08 Steinkjer L 2-5 1266 1283 50.3% 26.9% 22.8% -20.2 0
1966-05-08 @ Valerenga W 5-2 1283 1266 22.8% 26.9% 50.3% +20.2 2
1966-05-15 Hodd W 6-1 1277 1304 49.2% 26.9% 23.9% +20.7 5
1966-05-15 @ Lisleby L 1-6 1304 1277 23.9% 26.9% 49.2% -20.7 3
1966-05-15 Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1365 1276 60.7% 25.6% 13.7% -2.5 5
1966-05-15 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1276 1365 13.7% 25.6% 60.7% +2.5 7
1966-05-15 Valerenga L 1-3 1270 1246 54.7% 26.5% 18.8% -17.8 0
1966-05-15 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1246 1270 18.8% 26.5% 54.7% +17.8 2
1966-05-15 Fredrikstad W 3-1 1303 1291 53.5% 26.6% 19.9% +8.0 4
1966-05-15 @ Steinkjer L 1-3 1291 1303 19.9% 26.6% 53.5% -8.0 3
1966-05-19 Steinkjer W 1-0 1252 1311 45.2% 27.1% 27.7% +6.4 2
1966-05-19 @ IF Odd L 0-1 1311 1252 27.7% 27.1% 45.2% -6.3 4
1966-05-19 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1294 1275 54.2% 26.6% 19.2% -1.8 6
1966-05-19 @ Skeid D 0-0 1275 1294 19.2% 26.6% 54.2% +1.8 3
1966-05-23 IF Odd W 3-1 1283 1258 54.8% 26.5% 18.8% +7.6 5
1966-05-23 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1258 1283 18.8% 26.5% 54.8% -7.6 2
1966-05-23 Steinkjer W 3-0 1283 1305 49.7% 26.9% 23.4% +15.2 5
1966-05-23 @ Hodd L 0-3 1305 1283 23.4% 26.9% 49.7% -15.2 4
1966-05-23 Skeid D 1-1 1362 1292 59.1% 25.9% 15.0% -2.0 6
1966-05-23 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1292 1362 15.0% 25.9% 59.1% +2.0 7
1966-05-23 Lisleby W 1-0 1276 1298 49.8% 26.9% 23.3% +5.6 5
1966-05-23 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1298 1276 23.3% 26.9% 49.8% -5.6 5
1966-05-23 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1264 1278 50.6% 26.9% 22.6% +5.1 4
1966-05-23 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1278 1264 22.6% 26.9% 50.6% -5.1 7
1966-05-30 Hodd L 0-1 1251 1298 46.7% 27.0% 26.3% -9.5 2
1966-05-30 @ IF Odd W 1-0 1298 1251 26.3% 27.0% 46.7% +9.5 7
1966-05-30 Skeid L 2-4 1290 1294 51.7% 26.8% 21.5% -15.1 4
1966-05-30 @ Steinkjer W 4-2 1294 1290 21.5% 26.8% 51.7% +15.1 9
1966-05-31 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1290 1360 43.8% 27.1% 29.1% -0.7 6
1966-05-31 @ Fredrikstad D 0-0 1360 1290 29.1% 27.1% 43.8% +0.7 7
1966-05-31 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1273 1282 51.2% 26.8% 22.0% +5.3 9
1966-05-31 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1282 1273 22.0% 26.8% 51.2% -5.3 5
1966-05-31 Lisleby W 4-2 1269 1292 49.6% 26.9% 23.5% +8.2 6
1966-05-31 @ Valerenga L 2-4 1292 1269 23.5% 26.9% 49.6% -8.2 5
1966-06-05 Valerenga L 1-3 1308 1277 55.4% 26.4% 18.2% -18.0 7
1966-06-05 @ Hodd W 3-1 1277 1308 18.2% 26.4% 55.4% +18.0 8
1966-06-05 Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1284 1278 52.8% 26.7% 20.5% +5.0 7
1966-06-05 @ Lisleby L 0-1 1278 1284 20.5% 26.7% 52.8% -5.0 9
1966-06-05 IF Odd W 4-3 1361 1241 63.2% 25.0% 11.8% +2.7 9
1966-06-05 @ Lyn Oslo L 3-4 1241 1361 11.8% 25.0% 63.2% -2.7 2
1966-06-05 Steinkjer D 1-1 1277 1275 52.4% 26.7% 20.9% -1.4 6
1966-06-05 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1275 1277 20.9% 26.7% 52.4% +1.4 5
1966-06-05 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1309 1290 54.2% 26.6% 19.2% -10.8 9
1966-06-05 @ Skeid W 1-0 1290 1309 19.2% 26.6% 54.2% +10.8 8
1966-06-15 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1301 1275 54.8% 26.5% 18.7% +16.6 10
1966-06-15 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1275 1301 18.7% 26.5% 54.8% -16.6 6
1966-06-15 Hodd W 5-1 1273 1290 50.3% 26.9% 22.8% +16.2 11
1966-06-15 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-5 1290 1273 22.8% 26.9% 50.3% -16.2 7
1966-06-15 Skeid D 1-1 1239 1298 45.1% 27.1% 27.8% -0.7 3
1966-06-15 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1298 1239 27.8% 27.1% 45.1% +0.7 10
1966-06-15 Lisleby W 4-2 1276 1289 50.7% 26.8% 22.4% +7.9 7
1966-06-15 @ Steinkjer L 2-4 1289 1276 22.4% 26.8% 50.7% -7.9 7
1966-06-16 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1295 1364 44.0% 27.1% 28.9% +18.0 10
1966-06-16 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1364 1295 28.9% 27.1% 44.0% -18.0 9
1966-06-18 IF Odd L 0-1 1281 1238 56.6% 26.3% 17.1% -11.3 7
1966-06-18 @ Lisleby W 1-0 1238 1281 17.1% 26.3% 56.6% +11.3 5
1966-06-19 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1273 1317 47.1% 27.0% 25.9% -15.6 7
1966-06-19 @ Hodd W 3-1 1317 1273 25.9% 27.0% 47.1% +15.6 12
1966-06-19 Steinkjer W 2-1 1346 1284 58.4% 26.0% 15.7% +3.8 11
1966-06-19 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1284 1346 15.7% 26.0% 58.4% -3.8 7
1966-06-19 Valerenga W 3-0 1259 1313 45.8% 27.1% 27.1% +17.1 8
1966-06-19 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1313 1259 27.1% 27.1% 45.8% -17.1 10
1966-06-20 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1299 1289 53.2% 26.7% 20.1% +9.3 12
1966-06-20 @ Skeid L 0-2 1289 1299 20.1% 26.7% 53.2% -9.3 11
1966-07-31 Hodd D 1-1 1276 1258 54.1% 26.6% 19.4% -1.5 9
1966-07-31 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1258 1276 19.4% 26.6% 54.1% +1.6 8
1966-07-31 Valerenga W 5-1 1308 1296 53.5% 26.6% 19.9% +14.5 14
1966-07-31 @ Skeid L 1-5 1296 1308 19.9% 26.6% 53.5% -14.5 10
1966-07-31 IF Odd W 5-1 1280 1249 55.4% 26.4% 18.2% +13.5 9
1966-07-31 @ Steinkjer L 1-5 1249 1280 18.2% 26.4% 55.4% -13.5 5
1966-08-03 Frigg Oslo D 3-3 1333 1280 57.5% 26.1% 16.4% -1.2 13
1966-08-03 @ Fredrikstad D 3-3 1280 1333 16.4% 26.1% 57.5% +1.2 12
1966-08-03 Lisleby D 2-2 1350 1270 59.9% 25.7% 14.4% -1.6 12
1966-08-03 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1270 1350 14.4% 25.7% 59.9% +1.6 8
1966-08-06 Skeid L 0-1 1272 1323 46.2% 27.1% 26.8% -9.4 8
1966-08-06 @ Lisleby W 1-0 1323 1272 26.8% 27.1% 46.2% +9.4 16
1966-08-07 Steinkjer D 1-1 1281 1294 50.8% 26.8% 22.3% -1.2 13
1966-08-07 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1294 1281 22.3% 26.8% 50.8% +1.2 10
1966-08-07 Sarpsborg L 1-3 1236 1274 47.8% 27.0% 25.2% -15.8 5
1966-08-07 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1274 1236 25.2% 27.0% 47.8% +15.8 11
1966-08-08 Fredrikstad W 3-0 1281 1332 46.3% 27.1% 26.6% +16.9 12
1966-08-08 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1332 1281 26.6% 27.1% 46.3% -16.9 13
1966-08-12 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1262 1290 49.0% 26.9% 24.0% -1.2 9
1966-08-12 @ Lisleby D 0-0 1290 1262 24.0% 26.9% 49.0% +1.2 12
1966-08-12 Fredrikstad W 3-0 1220 1315 40.5% 27.1% 32.4% +19.5 7
1966-08-12 @ IF Odd L 0-3 1315 1220 32.4% 27.1% 40.5% -19.5 13
1966-08-12 Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1332 1348 50.4% 26.9% 22.7% +5.1 18
1966-08-12 @ Skeid L 1-2 1348 1332 22.7% 26.9% 50.4% -5.1 12
1966-08-12 Hodd W 3-1 1295 1259 55.8% 26.4% 17.8% +7.3 12
1966-08-12 @ Steinkjer L 1-3 1259 1295 17.8% 26.4% 55.8% -7.3 8
1966-08-16 Valerenga W 3-0 1280 1298 50.1% 26.9% 23.0% +15.0 15
1966-08-16 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-3 1298 1280 23.0% 26.9% 50.1% -15.0 12
1966-08-24 Lyn Oslo W 4-2 1252 1343 41.1% 27.1% 31.8% +10.3 10
1966-08-24 @ Hodd L 2-4 1343 1252 31.8% 27.1% 41.1% -10.3 12
1966-08-28 Steinkjer W 2-1 1295 1302 51.4% 26.8% 21.8% +5.0 15
1966-08-28 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1302 1295 21.8% 26.8% 51.4% -5.0 12
1966-08-28 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1295 1333 47.9% 27.0% 25.1% -18.2 15
1966-08-28 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1333 1295 25.1% 27.0% 47.9% +18.2 14
1966-08-28 Lisleby L 1-2 1262 1261 52.3% 26.7% 20.9% -9.9 10
1966-08-28 @ Hodd W 2-1 1261 1262 20.9% 26.7% 52.3% +9.9 11
1966-08-28 Skeid D 2-2 1291 1337 46.8% 27.0% 26.2% -0.7 13
1966-08-28 @ Sarpsborg D 2-2 1337 1291 26.2% 27.0% 46.8% +0.7 19
1966-08-28 IF Odd W 3-1 1283 1239 56.6% 26.3% 17.1% +7.0 14
1966-08-28 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1239 1283 17.1% 26.3% 56.6% -7.0 7
1966-09-11 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1271 1300 48.9% 27.0% 24.2% -9.3 11
1966-09-11 @ Lisleby W 2-1 1300 1271 24.2% 27.0% 48.9% +9.3 17
1966-09-11 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1351 1291 58.2% 26.0% 15.8% +4.0 16
1966-09-11 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1291 1351 15.8% 26.0% 58.2% -4.0 13
1966-09-11 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1232 1277 47.0% 27.0% 25.9% +5.7 9
1966-09-11 @ IF Odd L 1-2 1277 1232 25.9% 27.0% 47.0% -5.7 15
1966-09-11 Hodd W 4-2 1338 1253 60.4% 25.6% 14.0% +5.2 21
1966-09-11 @ Skeid L 2-4 1253 1338 14.0% 25.6% 60.4% -5.2 10
1966-09-11 Valerenga W 2-1 1297 1290 52.9% 26.7% 20.4% +4.7 14
1966-09-11 @ Steinkjer L 1-2 1290 1297 20.4% 26.7% 52.9% -4.7 14
1966-09-22 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1355 1309 56.8% 26.2% 17.0% -1.8 17
1966-09-22 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1309 1355 17.0% 26.2% 56.8% +1.8 18
1966-09-24 Valerenga L 0-1 1262 1286 49.5% 26.9% 23.6% -10.0 11
1966-09-24 @ Lisleby W 1-0 1286 1262 23.6% 26.9% 49.5% +10.0 16
1966-09-25 IF Odd D 2-2 1247 1238 53.2% 26.7% 20.2% -1.1 11
1966-09-25 @ Hodd D 2-2 1238 1247 20.2% 26.7% 53.2% +1.1 10
1966-09-25 Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1287 1271 53.8% 26.6% 19.6% -1.7 14
1966-09-25 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1271 1287 19.6% 26.6% 53.8% +1.7 16
1966-09-25 Steinkjer D 1-1 1343 1302 56.4% 26.3% 17.3% -1.8 22
1966-09-25 @ Skeid D 1-1 1302 1343 17.3% 26.3% 56.4% +1.8 15
1966-10-09 Skeid W 4-1 1311 1342 48.7% 27.0% 24.3% +13.2 20
1966-10-09 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1342 1311 24.3% 27.0% 48.7% -13.2 22
1966-10-09 Lisleby W 1-0 1273 1252 54.4% 26.5% 19.1% +4.7 18
1966-10-09 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1252 1273 19.1% 26.5% 54.4% -4.7 11
1966-10-09 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1239 1353 37.9% 27.1% 35.0% -0.1 11
1966-10-09 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1353 1239 35.0% 27.1% 37.9% +0.1 18
1966-10-09 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1304 1285 54.2% 26.6% 19.3% +4.8 17
1966-10-09 @ Steinkjer L 0-1 1285 1304 19.3% 26.6% 54.2% -4.8 14
1966-10-09 Hodd L 2-4 1296 1246 57.2% 26.2% 16.6% -16.6 16
1966-10-09 @ Valerenga W 4-2 1246 1296 16.6% 26.2% 57.2% +16.6 13
1966-10-16 Frigg Oslo L 0-2 1263 1278 50.5% 26.9% 22.6% -19.1 13
1966-10-16 @ Hodd W 2-0 1278 1263 22.6% 26.9% 50.5% +19.1 20
1966-10-16 Steinkjer W 1-0 1247 1308 44.9% 27.1% 28.0% +6.4 13
1966-10-16 @ Lisleby L 0-1 1308 1247 28.0% 27.1% 44.9% -6.4 17
1966-10-16 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1280 1325 47.0% 27.0% 25.9% -26.1 14
1966-10-16 @ Sarpsborg W 3-0 1325 1280 25.9% 27.0% 47.0% +26.1 22
1966-10-16 IF Odd D 0-0 1328 1239 60.7% 25.6% 13.7% -2.5 23
1966-10-16 @ Skeid D 0-0 1239 1328 13.7% 25.6% 60.7% +2.5 12
1966-10-17 Valerenga D 1-1 1353 1279 59.4% 25.8% 14.7% -2.1 19
1966-10-17 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1279 1353 14.7% 25.8% 59.4% +2.1 17
1966-10-23 Hodd W 6-0 1351 1244 62.2% 25.2% 12.6% +17.1 24
1966-10-23 @ Fredrikstad L 0-6 1244 1351 12.6% 25.2% 62.2% -17.1 13
1966-10-23 Skeid L 0-1 1297 1326 48.9% 27.0% 24.2% -9.9 20
1966-10-23 @ Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1326 1297 24.2% 27.0% 48.9% +9.9 25
1966-10-23 Lisleby W 2-0 1242 1253 50.9% 26.8% 22.3% +10.1 14
1966-10-23 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1253 1242 22.3% 26.8% 50.9% -10.1 13
1966-10-23 Lyn Oslo L 1-4 1302 1351 46.5% 27.0% 26.5% -21.8 17
1966-10-23 @ Steinkjer W 4-1 1351 1302 26.5% 27.0% 46.5% +21.8 21
1966-10-23 Sarpsborg W 3-2 1281 1254 55.0% 26.5% 18.5% +4.1 19
1966-10-23 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1254 1281 18.5% 26.5% 55.0% -4.1 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1966-10-09 16.64% Hodd 1246 4 @ Valerenga 1296 2
2 1966-06-18 17.13% IF Odd 1238 1 @ Lisleby 1281 0
3 1966-05-01 17.84% Frigg Oslo 1259 1 @ Steinkjer 1294 0
4 1966-06-05 18.22% Valerenga 1277 3 @ Hodd 1308 1
5 1966-05-08 18.31% Skeid 1284 3 @ Hodd 1313 2
6 1966-05-15 18.82% Valerenga 1246 3 @ IF Odd 1270 1
7 1966-06-05 19.23% Fredrikstad 1290 1 @ Skeid 1309 0
8 1966-04-24 19.46% Skeid 1274 1 @ Valerenga 1291 0
9 1966-08-28 20.94% Lisleby 1261 2 @ Hodd 1262 1
10 1966-05-30 21.53% Skeid 1294 4 @ Steinkjer 1290 2
11 1966-10-16 22.61% Frigg Oslo 1278 2 @ Hodd 1263 0
12 1966-05-08 22.83% Steinkjer 1283 5 @ Valerenga 1266 2
13 1966-09-24 23.61% Valerenga 1286 1 @ Lisleby 1262 0
14 1966-10-23 24.17% Skeid 1326 1 @ Frigg Oslo 1297 0
15 1966-09-11 24.20% Fredrikstad 1300 2 @ Lisleby 1271 1
16 1966-08-28 25.12% Lyn Oslo 1333 2 @ Frigg Oslo 1295 0
17 1966-08-07 25.24% Sarpsborg 1274 3 @ IF Odd 1236 1
18 1966-06-19 25.86% Fredrikstad 1317 3 @ Hodd 1273 1
19 1966-10-16 25.93% Fredrikstad 1325 3 @ Sarpsborg 1280 0
20 1966-05-30 26.28% Hodd 1298 1 @ IF Odd 1251 0
21 1966-10-23 26.49% Lyn Oslo 1351 4 @ Steinkjer 1302 1
22 1966-08-06 26.77% Skeid 1323 1 @ Lisleby 1272 0
23 1966-05-08 27.85% Lyn Oslo 1350 3 @ Sarpsborg 1290 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1966-10-16 26.11 Fredrikstad 3 1325 25.93% @ Sarpsborg 0 1280 47.04% 27.02%
2 1966-10-23 21.78 Lyn Oslo 4 1351 26.49% @ Steinkjer 1 1302 46.47% 27.04%
3 1966-05-15 20.66 @ Lisleby 6 1277 49.19% Hodd 1 1304 23.88% 26.93%
4 1966-05-08 20.21 Steinkjer 5 1283 22.83% @ Valerenga 2 1266 50.30% 26.87%
5 1966-08-12 19.54 @ IF Odd 3 1220 40.53% Fredrikstad 0 1315 32.38% 27.09%
6 1966-10-16 19.14 Frigg Oslo 2 1278 22.61% @ Hodd 0 1263 50.53% 26.86%
7 1966-08-28 18.25 Lyn Oslo 2 1333 25.12% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1295 47.89% 26.99%
8 1966-06-05 18.02 Valerenga 3 1277 18.22% @ Hodd 1 1308 55.36% 26.42%
9 1966-06-16 17.96 @ Valerenga 3 1295 43.99% Lyn Oslo 0 1364 28.92% 27.09%
10 1966-05-15 17.82 Valerenga 3 1246 18.82% @ IF Odd 1 1270 54.68% 26.50%
11 1966-06-19 17.11 @ Sarpsborg 3 1259 45.81% Valerenga 0 1313 27.13% 27.06%
12 1966-10-23 17.07 @ Fredrikstad 6 1351 62.17% Hodd 0 1244 12.58% 25.25%
13 1966-08-08 16.87 @ Valerenga 3 1281 46.33% Fredrikstad 0 1332 26.62% 27.05%
14 1966-10-09 16.61 Hodd 4 1246 16.64% @ Valerenga 2 1296 57.17% 26.18%
15 1966-06-15 16.56 @ Fredrikstad 4 1301 54.84% Sarpsborg 0 1275 18.68% 26.48%
16 1966-06-15 16.25 @ Frigg Oslo 5 1273 50.35% Hodd 1 1290 22.79% 26.87%
17 1966-08-07 15.77 Sarpsborg 3 1274 25.24% @ IF Odd 1 1236 47.76% 27.00%
18 1966-06-19 15.59 Fredrikstad 3 1317 25.86% @ Hodd 1 1273 47.12% 27.02%
19 1966-05-23 15.24 @ Hodd 3 1283 49.72% Steinkjer 0 1305 23.38% 26.90%
20 1966-05-30 15.13 Skeid 4 1294 21.53% @ Steinkjer 2 1290 51.70% 26.77%
21 1966-05-08 15.02 Lyn Oslo 3 1350 27.85% @ Sarpsborg 1 1290 45.07% 27.08%
22 1966-08-16 15.02 @ Frigg Oslo 3 1280 50.15% Valerenga 0 1298 22.97% 26.88%
23 1966-07-31 14.54 @ Skeid 5 1308 53.51% Valerenga 1 1296 19.87% 26.62%
24 1966-05-01 14.14 @ Fredrikstad 3 1278 51.95% Valerenga 0 1280 21.29% 26.75%
25 1966-07-31 13.51 @ Steinkjer 5 1280 55.39% IF Odd 1 1249 18.19% 26.42%