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1965 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valerenga

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valerenga

6.99 points above expected

27 points · 20.01 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sandefjord

9.02 points below expected

2 points · 11.02 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valerenga 18 12 3 3 27 39 25 +14 20.01 +6.99
2 Lyn Oslo 18 12 2 4 26 57 22 +35 23.63 +2.37
3 Sarpsborg 18 10 3 5 23 32 24 +8 20.57 +2.43
4 Steinkjer 18 9 3 6 21 27 21 +6 19.77 +1.23
5 Fredrikstad 18 8 4 6 20 40 31 +9 21.77 -1.77
6 Skeid 18 8 1 9 17 28 30 -2 17.88 -0.88
7 IF Odd 18 7 2 9 16 30 35 -5 17.22 -1.22
8 Frigg Oslo 18 5 5 8 15 22 30 -8 14.05 +0.95
9 Viking 18 5 3 10 13 20 32 -12 14.09 -1.09
10 Sandefjord 18 0 2 16 2 12 57 -45 11.02 -9.02

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lyn Oslo 1454 26 23.63 +2.37 80.5% 9 18 21 24 26 29 35
Steinkjer 1270 21 19.77 +1.23 68.6% 6 14 17 20 22 25 31
Sarpsborg 1266 23 20.57 +2.43 79.4% 6 15 18 21 23 26 32
Valerenga 1263 27 20.01 +6.99 98.4% 8 14 18 20 22 26 32
Fredrikstad 1229 20 21.77 -1.77 34.6% 9 16 19 22 24 27 33
IF Odd 1219 16 17.22 -1.22 42.3% 6 11 15 17 20 23 30
Skeid 1197 17 17.88 -0.88 45.7% 6 12 16 18 20 24 30
Frigg Oslo 1130 15 14.05 +0.95 66.5% 1 9 12 14 16 20 28
Viking 1108 13 14.09 -1.09 44.4% 2 9 12 14 16 20 27
Sandefjord 889 2 11.02 -9.02 0.3% 1 6 9 11 13 16 25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FRE FO IO LO SAN SAR SKE STE VAL VIK
Fredrikstad —
1-0-1
4.22
1-0-1
3.57
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
4.10
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.27
0-1-1
3.11
0-1-1
4.25
Frigg Oslo
1-0-1
1.46
 —
0-1-1
2.43
1-0-1
1.27
1-1-0
3.71
0-1-1
1.78
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
1.86
1-1-0
2.59
IF Odd
1-0-1
2.11
1-1-0
3.24
 —
1-0-1
1.91
2-0-0
3.66
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.91
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
3.14
Lyn Oslo
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
4.41
1-0-1
3.76
 —
2-0-0
4.75
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.14
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
4.42
Sandefjord
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
2.02
0-0-2
0.93
 —
0-0-2
1.12
0-0-2
1.64
0-1-1
1.37
0-0-2
1.89
0-0-2
2.55
Sarpsborg
0-1-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.89
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
2.38
2-0-0
4.56
 —
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.99
2-0-0
3.78
Skeid
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-2
1.76
2-0-0
4.04
1-0-1
2.63
 —
1-0-1
2.59
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
3.26
Steinkjer
1-0-1
2.40
1-1-0
3.70
2-0-0
2.76
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
4.31
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
3.08
 —
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
3.72
Valerenga
1-1-0
2.57
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.34
0-1-1
2.51
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.13
1-1-0
2.90
 —
2-0-0
3.67
Viking
1-1-0
1.42
0-1-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
3.12
0-0-2
1.89
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
1.95
0-0-2
2.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +4.8
Allowed 0.83 -6.4
Differential 0.91 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%7.22%5.56%4.44%2.22%2.22%25.00%
17.22%5.56%6.67%3.33%1.11%3.33%27.22%
25.56%6.67%5.56%3.89%0.56%—22.22%
34.44%3.33%3.89%1.11%1.11%0.56%14.44%
42.22%1.11%0.56%1.11%——5.00%
5+2.22%3.33%—0.56%——6.11%
Total25.00%27.22%22.22%14.44%5.00%6.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.71 +0.00
SD 1.58 1.58 2.46
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
1—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+11.11%——5.56%——16.67%
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.72 +0.50
SD 2.24 1.36 2.83
CV 1.01 0.79 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
116.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.67 -0.44
SD 1.11 1.37 1.65
CV 0.91 0.82 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%27.78%
1—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
211.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.94 -0.28
SD 1.53 1.51 2.54
CV 0.92 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
15.56%—————5.56%
25.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%22.22%————27.78%
Total22.22%50.00%11.11%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.17 1.22 +1.94
SD 2.20 1.00 2.71
CV 0.70 0.82 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%16.67%—5.56%44.44%
1—5.56%11.11%11.11%—16.67%44.44%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.11%33.33%27.78%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 3.17 -2.50
SD 0.69 1.82 1.86
CV 1.03 0.58 —
Max 2 8 +0
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
316.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%11.11%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.33 +0.44
SD 1.26 1.61 2.31
CV 0.71 1.21 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
122.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%50.00%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%———5.56%5.56%16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.67 -0.11
SD 1.10 2.03 2.11
CV 0.70 1.22 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total44.44%22.22%22.22%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.17 +0.33
SD 1.34 1.47 2.17
CV 0.89 1.26 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%—5.56%——5.56%22.22%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
3—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%33.33%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.39 +0.78
SD 1.38 1.61 2.21
CV 0.64 1.16 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%16.67%—11.11%—38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%33.33%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.78 -0.67
SD 1.13 1.17 1.97
CV 1.02 0.66 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 27 20.01 +6.99
2 Sarpsborg 23 20.57 +2.43
3 Lyn Oslo 26 23.63 +2.37
4 Steinkjer 21 19.77 +1.23
5 Frigg Oslo 15 14.05 +0.95

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sandefjord 2 11.02 -9.02
2 Fredrikstad 20 21.77 -1.77
3 IF Odd 16 17.22 -1.22
4 Viking 13 14.09 -1.09
5 Skeid 17 17.88 -0.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 6 May 23 – Aug 1 1 in 86
2 Skeid 5 Aug 18 – Sep 22 1 in 71
3 Lyn Oslo 5 Aug 26 – Oct 10 1 in 14
4 Valerenga 4 Jun 18 – Aug 19 1 in 7
5 Fredrikstad 2 May 23 – May 30 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 5 Jun 4 – Aug 13 1 in 115
2 Sandefjord 9 Aug 1 – Oct 10 1 in 37
3 Lyn Oslo 2 Aug 15 – Aug 18 1 in 22
4 Frigg Oslo 3 Apr 23 – May 9 1 in 13
5 Sarpsborg 2 Sep 9 – Sep 19 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frigg Oslo 7 Jun 7 – Aug 29 1 in 352
2 Valerenga 7 Apr 25 – Jun 7 1 in 55
3 Fredrikstad 7 Apr 25 – Jun 7 1 in 33
4 Sarpsborg 7 May 23 – Aug 12 1 in 20
5 Skeid 5 Aug 18 – Sep 22 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sandefjord 18 Apr 25 – Oct 10 1 in 157
2 Skeid 5 Jun 4 – Aug 13 1 in 17
3 IF Odd 4 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 8
4 Lyn Oslo 2 May 14 – May 23 1 in 7
5 Steinkjer 3 May 23 – Jun 7 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valerenga10.33%15.05%16.31%16.39%14.32%11.64%8.43%4.56%2.41%0.56%
Lyn Oslo45.04%23.02%13.71%8.31%4.93%3.02%1.35%0.48%0.13%0.01%
Sarpsborg12.81%15.75%16.85%16.14%14.31%10.73%7.06%4.08%1.70%0.57%
Steinkjer7.85%12.41%15.78%16.57%15.39%13.36%9.90%5.54%2.51%0.69%
Fredrikstad19.08%22.65%18.25%14.76%10.33%7.54%4.36%2.12%0.66%0.25%
Skeid2.54%5.68%8.79%11.95%15.65%17.87%16.38%11.76%6.91%2.47%
IF Odd1.88%4.11%6.96%9.65%13.47%16.39%19.70%15.03%9.33%3.48%
Frigg Oslo0.17%0.51%1.54%3.07%5.24%8.91%14.64%23.98%26.03%15.91%
Viking0.29%0.79%1.67%2.73%5.39%8.30%13.86%21.88%27.59%17.50%
Sandefjord0.01%0.03%0.14%0.43%0.97%2.24%4.32%10.57%22.73%58.56%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+24.44%
Clear Edge
54.44%15.56%30.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge
147 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
086.68400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.59 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.59+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
10%
Valerenga, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.75 * Some Luck: 2.75 to 4.13 * Lucky: 4.13 to 5.5 * Wild Swing: 5.5 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.26 * Close: 1.26 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.51 * Way Off: 2.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.88 points
Some Luck
03.449
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.574
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.36%
Valerenga
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.26%
Sandefjord
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.72
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
96%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.36
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.06
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.136
Well Within Noise
00.1600.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo 99.86% 0.14%
Fredrikstad 99.09% 0.91%
Sarpsborg 97.73% 2.27%
Valerenga 97.03% 2.97%
Steinkjer 96.80% 3.20%
Skeid 90.62% 9.38%
IF Odd 87.19% 12.81%
Frigg Oslo 58.06% 41.94%
Viking 54.91% 45.09%
Sandefjord 18.71% 81.29%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1965-04-23 Skeid L 0-3 1164 1188 55.9% 16.5% 27.6% -51.5 0
1965-04-23 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-0 1188 1164 27.6% 16.5% 55.9% +51.5 2
1965-04-25 Valerenga D 2-2 1232 1177 64.2% 16.4% 19.4% -2.7 1
1965-04-25 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1177 1232 19.4% 16.4% 64.2% +2.7 1
1965-04-25 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1254 1206 63.6% 16.4% 20.0% +7.7 2
1965-04-25 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1206 1254 20.0% 16.4% 63.6% -7.7 0
1965-04-25 Steinkjer L 0-2 1277 1237 62.9% 16.4% 20.8% -39.8 0
1965-04-25 @ IF Odd W 2-0 1237 1277 20.8% 16.4% 62.9% +39.8 2
1965-04-25 Sandefjord W 2-1 1137 1154 56.6% 16.5% 26.9% +9.4 2
1965-04-25 @ Viking L 1-2 1154 1137 26.9% 16.5% 56.6% -9.4 0
1965-04-30 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1239 1229 59.8% 16.4% 23.8% -18.0 2
1965-04-30 @ Skeid W 3-2 1229 1239 23.8% 16.4% 59.8% +18.0 3
1965-05-02 IF Odd L 1-2 1145 1237 47.0% 16.5% 36.5% -15.1 0
1965-05-02 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1237 1145 36.5% 16.5% 47.0% +15.1 2
1965-05-02 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1198 1113 66.9% 16.3% 16.8% +12.3 2
1965-05-02 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1113 1198 16.8% 16.3% 66.9% -12.3 0
1965-05-02 Lyn Oslo L 1-4 1276 1262 60.2% 16.4% 23.4% -46.7 2
1965-05-02 @ Steinkjer W 4-1 1262 1276 23.4% 16.4% 60.2% +46.7 4
1965-05-02 Viking W 4-0 1179 1146 62.1% 16.4% 21.5% +29.2 3
1965-05-02 @ Valerenga L 0-4 1146 1179 21.5% 16.4% 62.1% -29.2 2
1965-05-07 IF Odd W 5-0 1308 1253 64.3% 16.4% 19.3% +32.7 6
1965-05-07 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-5 1253 1308 19.3% 16.4% 64.3% -32.7 2
1965-05-09 Steinkjer L 0-1 1100 1230 41.9% 16.5% 41.7% -14.5 0
1965-05-09 @ Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1230 1100 41.7% 16.5% 41.9% +14.5 4
1965-05-09 Valerenga L 0-2 1130 1209 48.9% 16.5% 34.6% -31.4 0
1965-05-09 @ Sandefjord W 2-0 1209 1130 34.6% 16.5% 48.9% +31.4 5
1965-05-09 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1210 1247 54.3% 16.5% 29.2% -2.2 3
1965-05-09 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1247 1210 29.2% 16.5% 54.3% +2.2 4
1965-05-09 Skeid D 1-1 1117 1221 45.4% 16.5% 38.1% -0.6 3
1965-05-09 @ Viking D 1-1 1221 1117 38.1% 16.5% 45.4% +0.6 3
1965-05-14 Valerenga D 2-2 1341 1240 68.2% 16.3% 15.5% -3.2 7
1965-05-14 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1240 1341 15.5% 16.3% 68.2% +3.2 6
1965-05-16 Viking D 1-1 1249 1117 70.5% 16.2% 13.3% -4.8 5
1965-05-16 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1117 1249 13.3% 16.2% 70.5% +4.8 4
1965-05-16 Sandefjord W 1-0 1222 1098 69.9% 16.2% 13.9% +5.5 5
1965-05-16 @ Skeid L 0-1 1098 1222 13.9% 16.2% 69.9% -5.5 0
1965-05-16 Sarpsborg W 3-0 1244 1208 62.4% 16.4% 21.2% +22.1 6
1965-05-16 @ Steinkjer L 0-3 1208 1244 21.2% 16.4% 62.4% -22.0 3
1965-05-23 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1086 1338 25.9% 16.3% 57.8% +19.4 2
1965-05-23 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1338 1086 57.8% 16.3% 25.9% -19.4 7
1965-05-23 Fredrikstad L 0-6 1093 1244 38.7% 16.5% 44.8% -71.3 0
1965-05-23 @ Sandefjord W 6-0 1244 1093 44.8% 16.5% 38.7% +71.3 7
1965-05-23 IF Odd W 3-0 1186 1220 54.6% 16.5% 28.9% +29.0 5
1965-05-23 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1220 1186 28.9% 16.5% 54.6% -29.0 2
1965-05-23 Steinkjer W 2-0 1121 1266 39.6% 16.5% 43.9% +28.5 6
1965-05-23 @ Viking L 0-2 1266 1121 43.9% 16.5% 39.6% -28.5 6
1965-05-24 Skeid W 1-0 1243 1227 60.3% 16.4% 23.2% +8.8 8
1965-05-24 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1227 1243 23.2% 16.4% 60.3% -8.8 5
1965-05-27 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1191 1105 66.9% 16.3% 16.8% +12.3 4
1965-05-27 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1105 1191 16.8% 16.3% 66.9% -12.3 2
1965-05-30 Viking W 3-1 1318 1150 72.9% 16.1% 11.1% +7.2 9
1965-05-30 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1150 1318 11.1% 16.1% 72.9% -7.2 6
1965-05-30 Skeid L 0-1 1203 1219 56.9% 16.5% 26.7% -19.1 4
1965-05-30 @ IF Odd W 1-0 1219 1203 26.7% 16.5% 56.9% +19.1 7
1965-05-30 Sandefjord W 3-0 1215 1022 74.3% 16.0% 9.7% +10.7 7
1965-05-30 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1022 1215 9.7% 16.0% 74.3% -10.7 0
1965-05-30 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1238 1316 49.0% 16.5% 34.5% -15.7 6
1965-05-30 @ Steinkjer W 2-1 1316 1238 34.5% 16.5% 49.0% +15.7 9
1965-06-01 Valerenga L 1-2 1093 1252 37.7% 16.5% 45.9% -12.5 2
1965-06-01 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1252 1093 45.9% 16.5% 37.7% +12.5 10
1965-06-04 Sarpsborg L 1-3 1238 1226 59.9% 16.4% 23.6% -32.9 7
1965-06-04 @ Skeid W 3-1 1226 1238 23.6% 16.4% 59.9% +32.9 9
1965-06-07 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1331 1326 59.2% 16.4% 24.3% -2.1 10
1965-06-07 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1326 1331 24.3% 16.4% 59.2% +2.1 10
1965-06-07 Steinkjer D 1-1 1011 1222 30.8% 16.4% 52.8% +1.7 1
1965-06-07 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1222 1011 52.8% 16.4% 30.8% -1.7 7
1965-06-07 IF Odd W 3-2 1264 1184 66.5% 16.3% 17.2% +6.0 12
1965-06-07 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1184 1264 17.2% 16.3% 66.5% -6.0 4
1965-06-07 Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1143 1081 64.9% 16.4% 18.7% -2.8 7
1965-06-07 @ Viking D 2-2 1081 1143 18.7% 16.4% 64.9% +2.8 3
1965-06-11 Sandefjord W 5-1 1328 1013 79.4% 15.5% 5.1% +6.2 12
1965-06-11 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1013 1328 5.1% 15.5% 79.4% -6.2 1
1965-06-12 Skeid W 2-1 1220 1205 60.3% 16.4% 23.3% +8.3 9
1965-06-12 @ Steinkjer L 1-2 1205 1220 23.3% 16.4% 60.3% -8.3 7
1965-06-13 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1083 1329 26.6% 16.3% 57.1% +19.2 5
1965-06-13 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1329 1083 57.1% 16.3% 26.6% -19.2 10
1965-06-13 Viking W 2-0 1178 1140 62.6% 16.4% 21.0% +15.1 6
1965-06-13 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1140 1178 21.0% 16.4% 62.6% -15.1 7
1965-06-13 Valerenga W 2-1 1259 1270 57.3% 16.5% 26.3% +9.2 11
1965-06-13 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1270 1259 26.3% 16.5% 57.3% -9.2 12
1965-06-18 Steinkjer W 5-1 1261 1229 62.1% 16.4% 21.5% +24.4 14
1965-06-18 @ Valerenga L 1-5 1229 1261 21.5% 16.4% 62.1% -24.4 9
1965-06-20 IF Odd W 2-1 1310 1193 69.4% 16.2% 14.4% +5.3 12
1965-06-20 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1193 1310 14.4% 16.2% 69.4% -5.3 6
1965-06-20 Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1006 1102 46.5% 16.5% 37.0% -0.5 2
1965-06-20 @ Sandefjord D 2-2 1102 1006 37.0% 16.5% 46.5% +0.5 6
1965-06-20 Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1197 1334 40.7% 16.5% 42.8% -42.3 7
1965-06-20 @ Skeid W 5-1 1334 1197 42.8% 16.5% 40.7% +42.3 14
1965-06-20 Sarpsborg L 0-2 1125 1268 39.9% 16.5% 43.6% -26.3 7
1965-06-20 @ Viking W 2-0 1268 1125 43.6% 16.5% 39.9% +26.3 13
1965-07-30 Fredrikstad W 4-1 1286 1315 55.1% 16.5% 28.4% +24.1 16
1965-07-30 @ Valerenga L 1-4 1315 1286 28.4% 16.5% 55.1% -24.1 12
1965-08-01 Viking L 1-3 1006 1099 47.0% 16.5% 36.5% -26.2 2
1965-08-01 @ Sandefjord W 3-1 1099 1006 36.5% 16.5% 47.0% +26.2 9
1965-08-01 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1294 1376 48.4% 16.5% 35.1% +34.3 15
1965-08-01 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1376 1294 35.1% 16.5% 48.4% -34.3 14
1965-08-01 IF Odd W 5-0 1204 1188 60.4% 16.4% 23.2% +38.5 11
1965-08-01 @ Steinkjer L 0-5 1188 1204 23.2% 16.4% 60.4% -38.5 6
1965-08-03 Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1154 1103 63.9% 16.4% 19.7% -21.5 7
1965-08-03 @ Skeid W 1-0 1103 1154 19.7% 16.4% 63.9% +21.5 8
1965-08-04 Lyn Oslo L 1-8 980 1342 15.5% 16.0% 68.5% -30.1 2
1965-08-04 @ Sandefjord W 8-1 1342 980 68.5% 16.0% 15.5% +30.1 16
1965-08-12 Sarpsborg D 3-3 1124 1328 31.7% 16.4% 51.9% +1.0 9
1965-08-12 @ Frigg Oslo D 3-3 1328 1124 51.9% 16.4% 31.7% -1.0 16
1965-08-13 Skeid W 7-3 1291 1133 72.2% 16.1% 11.6% +10.7 14
1965-08-13 @ Fredrikstad L 3-7 1133 1291 11.6% 16.1% 72.2% -10.7 7
1965-08-14 Sandefjord W 5-1 1149 950 74.6% 16.0% 9.4% +11.3 8
1965-08-14 @ IF Odd L 1-5 950 1149 9.4% 16.0% 74.6% -11.3 2
1965-08-15 Steinkjer L 2-3 1372 1243 70.3% 16.2% 13.5% -21.2 16
1965-08-15 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1243 1372 13.5% 16.2% 70.3% +21.2 13
1965-08-15 Valerenga L 0-1 1125 1310 34.2% 16.4% 49.4% -12.2 9
1965-08-15 @ Viking W 1-0 1310 1125 49.4% 16.4% 34.2% +12.2 18
1965-08-17 Sarpsborg W 6-0 1302 1327 55.7% 16.5% 27.9% +53.8 16
1965-08-17 @ Fredrikstad L 0-6 1327 1302 27.9% 16.5% 55.7% -53.8 16
1965-08-18 Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1161 1351 33.4% 16.4% 50.1% +15.2 10
1965-08-18 @ IF Odd L 2-3 1351 1161 50.1% 16.4% 33.4% -15.2 16
1965-08-18 Viking W 4-0 1122 1113 59.7% 16.4% 23.9% +32.1 9
1965-08-18 @ Skeid L 0-4 1113 1122 23.9% 16.4% 59.7% -32.1 9
1965-08-18 Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1264 1125 70.9% 16.2% 12.9% -5.4 14
1965-08-18 @ Steinkjer D 0-0 1125 1264 12.9% 16.2% 70.9% +5.4 10
1965-08-19 Sandefjord W 3-1 1322 938 81.3% 15.1% 3.5% +2.3 20
1965-08-19 @ Valerenga L 1-3 938 1322 3.5% 15.1% 81.3% -2.3 2
1965-08-26 Lyn Oslo L 1-7 1324 1336 57.3% 16.5% 26.2% -83.3 20
1965-08-26 @ Valerenga W 7-1 1336 1324 26.2% 16.5% 57.3% +83.3 18
1965-08-28 Fredrikstad W 3-0 1080 1356 23.4% 16.3% 60.4% +55.4 11
1965-08-28 @ Viking L 0-3 1356 1080 60.4% 16.3% 23.4% -55.4 16
1965-08-29 IF Odd D 1-1 1131 1176 53.3% 16.5% 30.2% -1.8 11
1965-08-29 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1176 1131 30.2% 16.5% 53.3% +1.8 11
1965-08-29 Skeid L 0-2 936 1154 29.9% 16.4% 53.7% -20.5 2
1965-08-29 @ Sandefjord W 2-0 1154 936 53.7% 16.4% 29.9% +20.5 11
1965-08-29 Steinkjer W 2-1 1274 1259 60.2% 16.4% 23.3% +8.3 18
1965-08-29 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1259 1274 23.3% 16.4% 60.2% -8.3 14
1965-09-03 Valerenga W 1-0 1175 1241 50.6% 16.5% 32.9% +11.9 13
1965-09-03 @ Skeid L 0-1 1241 1175 32.9% 16.5% 50.6% -11.9 20
1965-09-04 Sandefjord W 3-0 1300 915 81.4% 15.1% 3.5% +3.9 18
1965-09-04 @ Fredrikstad L 0-3 915 1300 3.5% 15.1% 81.4% -3.9 2
1965-09-05 Frigg Oslo W 4-0 1419 1129 78.5% 15.6% 5.8% +8.5 20
1965-09-05 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-4 1129 1419 5.8% 15.6% 78.5% -8.5 11
1965-09-05 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1178 1282 45.4% 16.5% 38.1% -0.6 12
1965-09-05 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1282 1178 38.1% 16.5% 45.4% +0.5 19
1965-09-05 Viking W 3-1 1250 1136 69.2% 16.2% 14.5% +9.3 16
1965-09-05 @ Steinkjer L 1-3 1136 1250 14.5% 16.2% 69.2% -9.3 11
1965-09-08 IF Odd W 3-2 1127 1177 52.6% 16.5% 30.9% +10.1 13
1965-09-08 @ Viking L 2-3 1177 1127 30.9% 16.5% 52.6% -10.0 12
1965-09-09 Sarpsborg W 3-2 1229 1282 52.2% 16.5% 31.3% +10.2 22
1965-09-09 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1282 1229 31.3% 16.5% 52.2% -10.2 19
1965-09-19 Viking W 2-1 1121 1137 56.8% 16.5% 26.8% +9.3 13
1965-09-19 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1137 1121 26.8% 16.5% 56.8% -9.3 13
1965-09-19 Valerenga L 1-2 1167 1239 49.8% 16.5% 33.7% -15.9 12
1965-09-19 @ IF Odd W 2-1 1239 1167 33.7% 16.5% 49.8% +15.9 24
1965-09-19 Skeid L 1-2 1272 1187 67.0% 16.3% 16.7% -21.2 19
1965-09-19 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1187 1272 16.7% 16.3% 67.0% +21.2 15
1965-09-19 Sandefjord W 2-0 1260 911 80.4% 15.3% 4.3% +3.3 18
1965-09-19 @ Steinkjer L 0-2 911 1260 4.3% 15.3% 80.4% -3.3 2
1965-09-21 Fredrikstad W 3-1 1427 1304 69.9% 16.2% 13.9% +8.9 22
1965-09-21 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1304 1427 13.9% 16.2% 69.9% -9.0 18
1965-09-22 Steinkjer W 1-0 1208 1263 52.0% 16.5% 31.5% +11.4 17
1965-09-22 @ Skeid L 0-1 1263 1208 31.5% 16.5% 52.0% -11.4 18
1965-09-29 Frigg Oslo W 4-3 1295 1130 72.7% 16.1% 11.2% +3.9 20
1965-09-29 @ Fredrikstad L 3-4 1130 1295 11.2% 16.1% 72.7% -3.9 13
1965-10-03 Steinkjer L 0-1 1299 1251 63.5% 16.4% 20.1% -21.3 20
1965-10-03 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1251 1299 20.1% 16.4% 63.5% +21.3 20
1965-10-03 Sarpsborg L 2-4 908 1251 17.1% 16.1% 66.9% -9.6 2
1965-10-03 @ Sandefjord W 4-2 1251 908 66.9% 16.1% 17.1% +9.6 21
1965-10-03 IF Odd L 3-4 1219 1151 65.4% 16.3% 18.2% -19.2 17
1965-10-03 @ Skeid W 4-3 1151 1219 18.2% 16.3% 65.4% +19.2 14
1965-10-03 Frigg Oslo W 3-2 1255 1126 70.3% 16.2% 13.5% +4.8 26
1965-10-03 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1126 1255 13.5% 16.2% 70.3% -4.8 13
1965-10-03 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1127 1436 20.0% 16.2% 63.8% -14.4 13
1965-10-03 @ Viking W 2-0 1436 1127 63.8% 16.2% 20.0% +14.4 24
1965-10-10 Sandefjord W 3-0 1121 899 75.8% 15.9% 8.3% +9.2 15
1965-10-10 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-3 899 1121 8.3% 15.9% 75.8% -9.2 2
1965-10-10 Skeid W 2-1 1451 1200 77.0% 15.8% 7.2% +2.8 26
1965-10-10 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1200 1451 7.2% 15.8% 77.0% -2.8 17
1965-10-10 Fredrikstad W 4-0 1170 1278 45.0% 16.5% 38.6% +48.5 16
1965-10-10 @ IF Odd L 0-4 1278 1170 38.6% 16.5% 45.0% -48.5 20
1965-10-10 Viking W 1-0 1261 1113 71.6% 16.1% 12.3% +4.9 23
1965-10-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1113 1261 12.3% 16.1% 71.6% -4.9 13
1965-10-10 Valerenga D 0-0 1273 1260 60.0% 16.4% 23.6% -3.3 21
1965-10-10 @ Steinkjer D 0-0 1260 1273 23.6% 16.4% 60.0% +3.3 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1965-08-15 13.50% Steinkjer 1243 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1372 2
2 1965-09-19 16.74% Skeid 1187 2 @ Sarpsborg 1272 1
3 1965-10-03 18.22% IF Odd 1151 4 @ Skeid 1219 3
4 1965-08-03 19.74% Frigg Oslo 1103 1 @ Skeid 1154 0
5 1965-10-03 20.07% Steinkjer 1251 1 @ Fredrikstad 1299 0
6 1965-04-25 20.75% Steinkjer 1237 2 @ IF Odd 1277 0
7 1965-05-02 23.35% Lyn Oslo 1262 4 @ Steinkjer 1276 1
8 1965-08-28 23.37% @ Viking 1080 3 Fredrikstad 1356 0
9 1965-06-04 23.65% Sarpsborg 1226 3 @ Skeid 1238 1
10 1965-04-30 23.82% Fredrikstad 1229 3 @ Skeid 1239 2
11 1965-05-23 25.91% @ Frigg Oslo 1086 1 Lyn Oslo 1338 0
12 1965-08-26 26.22% Lyn Oslo 1336 7 @ Valerenga 1324 1
13 1965-06-13 26.60% @ Frigg Oslo 1083 1 Fredrikstad 1329 0
14 1965-05-30 26.68% Skeid 1219 1 @ IF Odd 1203 0
15 1965-04-23 27.62% Skeid 1188 3 @ Frigg Oslo 1164 0
16 1965-08-18 33.44% @ IF Odd 1161 3 Lyn Oslo 1351 2
17 1965-09-19 33.74% Valerenga 1239 2 @ IF Odd 1167 1
18 1965-05-30 34.46% Fredrikstad 1316 2 @ Steinkjer 1238 1
19 1965-05-09 34.62% Valerenga 1209 2 @ Sandefjord 1130 0
20 1965-05-02 36.49% IF Odd 1237 2 @ Sandefjord 1145 1
21 1965-08-01 36.50% Viking 1099 3 @ Sandefjord 1006 1
22 1965-05-23 39.63% @ Viking 1121 2 Steinkjer 1266 0
23 1965-05-09 41.66% Steinkjer 1230 1 @ Frigg Oslo 1100 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-08-26 83.28 Lyn Oslo 7 1336 26.22% @ Valerenga 1 1324 57.31% 16.46%
2 1965-05-23 71.30 Fredrikstad 6 1244 44.81% @ Sandefjord 0 1093 38.72% 16.47%
3 1965-08-28 55.44 @ Viking 3 1080 23.37% Fredrikstad 0 1356 60.36% 16.27%
4 1965-08-17 53.79 @ Fredrikstad 6 1302 55.66% Sarpsborg 0 1327 27.86% 16.47%
5 1965-04-23 51.55 Skeid 3 1188 27.62% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1164 55.91% 16.47%
6 1965-10-10 48.55 @ IF Odd 4 1170 44.95% Fredrikstad 0 1278 38.56% 16.50%
7 1965-05-02 46.71 Lyn Oslo 4 1262 23.35% @ Steinkjer 1 1276 60.22% 16.43%
8 1965-06-20 42.34 Lyn Oslo 5 1334 42.81% @ Skeid 1 1197 40.71% 16.48%
9 1965-04-25 39.80 Steinkjer 2 1237 20.75% @ IF Odd 0 1277 62.86% 16.39%
10 1965-08-01 38.49 @ Steinkjer 5 1204 60.39% IF Odd 0 1188 23.18% 16.43%
11 1965-08-01 34.29 @ Sarpsborg 3 1294 48.45% Lyn Oslo 0 1376 35.06% 16.50%
12 1965-06-04 32.87 Sarpsborg 3 1226 23.65% @ Skeid 1 1238 59.92% 16.44%
13 1965-05-07 32.69 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1308 64.31% IF Odd 0 1253 19.32% 16.37%
14 1965-08-18 32.11 @ Skeid 4 1122 59.66% Viking 0 1113 23.90% 16.44%
15 1965-05-09 31.35 Valerenga 2 1209 34.62% @ Sandefjord 0 1130 48.88% 16.50%
16 1965-08-04 30.10 Lyn Oslo 8 1342 68.47% @ Sandefjord 1 980 15.52% 16.01%
17 1965-05-02 29.19 @ Valerenga 4 1179 62.10% Viking 0 1146 21.49% 16.41%
18 1965-05-23 29.01 @ Sarpsborg 3 1186 54.65% IF Odd 0 1220 28.87% 16.48%
19 1965-05-23 28.53 @ Viking 2 1121 39.63% Steinkjer 0 1266 43.89% 16.48%
20 1965-06-20 26.34 Sarpsborg 2 1268 43.60% @ Viking 0 1125 39.92% 16.48%
21 1965-08-01 26.23 Viking 3 1099 36.50% @ Sandefjord 1 1006 47.01% 16.50%
22 1965-06-18 24.37 @ Valerenga 5 1261 62.06% Steinkjer 1 1229 21.53% 16.41%
23 1965-07-30 24.10 @ Valerenga 4 1286 55.15% Fredrikstad 1 1315 28.37% 16.48%
24 1965-05-16 22.05 @ Steinkjer 3 1244 62.43% Sarpsborg 0 1208 21.17% 16.40%
25 1965-08-03 21.46 Frigg Oslo 1 1103 19.74% @ Skeid 0 1154 63.88% 16.38%