Home / Leagues / Norway / First Division / 1964
‹ ›

1964 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Lyn Oslo

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sarpsborg

4.72 points above expected

23 points · 18.28 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

5.51 points below expected

12 points · 17.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 18 10 6 2 26 39 16 +23 21.76 +4.24
2 Fredrikstad 18 9 6 3 24 40 21 +19 19.45 +4.55
3 Sarpsborg 18 10 3 5 23 30 16 +14 18.28 +4.72
4 Frigg Oslo 18 6 8 4 20 28 29 -1 17.03 +2.97
5 Skeid 18 5 7 6 17 24 22 +2 18.69 -1.69
6 Valerenga 18 6 5 7 17 18 21 -3 19.21 -2.21
7 Sandefjord 18 6 5 7 17 17 23 -6 18.10 -1.10
8 Viking 18 5 4 9 14 22 37 -15 15.51 -1.51
9 Brann 18 3 6 9 12 17 32 -15 17.51 -5.51
10 Raufoss 18 3 4 11 10 22 40 -18 14.46 -4.46

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lyn Oslo 1276 26 21.76 +4.24 92.9% 10 16 20 22 24 27 33
Fredrikstad 1238 24 19.45 +4.55 94.0% 8 14 17 19 22 25 31
Sarpsborg 1195 23 18.28 +4.72 94.2% 7 13 16 18 21 24 30
Skeid 1163 17 18.69 -1.69 35.5% 6 13 16 19 21 24 31
Valerenga 1147 17 19.21 -2.21 30.4% 7 14 17 19 21 25 31
Frigg Oslo 1130 20 17.03 +2.97 85.5% 7 12 15 17 19 22 30
Sandefjord 1113 17 18.10 -1.10 42.6% 4 13 16 18 20 24 30
Brann 1087 12 17.51 -5.51 6.7% 5 12 15 17 20 23 32
Viking 1083 14 15.51 -1.51 38.0% 5 10 13 16 18 21 27
Raufoss 1045 10 14.46 -4.46 11.9% 3 9 12 14 17 20 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE FO LO RAU SAN SAR SKE VAL VIK
Brann —
0-0-2
2.69
0-2-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.27
0-1-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.42
0-2-0
2.41
1-0-1
2.84
Fredrikstad
2-0-0
2.69
 —
0-2-0
3.08
1-0-1
2.45
1-1-0
3.49
1-1-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.82
0-2-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.32
Frigg Oslo
0-2-0
2.59
0-2-0
2.30
 —
0-1-1
2.22
2-0-0
2.94
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.41
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.94
Lyn Oslo
2-0-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
3.18
 —
2-0-0
3.92
0-2-0
3.03
1-1-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.31
0-1-1
3.28
1-1-0
3.82
Raufoss
1-1-0
2.19
0-1-1
1.91
0-0-2
2.43
0-0-2
1.52
 —
1-0-1
2.14
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
1.99
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
2.54
Sandefjord
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.82
0-2-0
2.37
1-0-1
3.23
 —
0-0-2
2.53
1-1-0
2.55
2-0-0
2.36
0-0-2
3.17
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.01
2-0-0
3.19
2-0-0
2.85
 —
1-1-0
2.70
0-1-1
2.56
2-0-0
2.84
Skeid
1-1-0
2.96
0-2-0
2.64
0-1-1
2.97
0-0-2
2.07
1-0-1
3.41
0-1-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.67
 —
2-0-0
2.49
1-1-0
3.18
Valerenga
0-2-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
2.12
1-1-0
3.35
0-0-2
3.01
1-1-0
2.81
0-0-2
2.88
 —
1-0-1
3.29
Viking
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.06
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-1
1.59
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
2.22
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.09
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +5.2
Allowed 0.71 -5.3
Differential 0.94 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.78%5.56%1.67%1.67%1.67%29.44%
17.78%12.22%5.56%4.44%2.22%1.11%33.33%
25.56%5.56%4.44%2.22%0.56%—18.33%
31.67%4.44%2.22%1.11%0.56%—10.00%
41.67%2.22%0.56%0.56%1.11%—6.11%
5+1.67%1.11%————2.78%
Total29.44%33.33%18.33%10.00%6.11%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.15
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%5.56%—11.11%5.56%61.11%
1—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%11.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.78 -0.83
SD 1.47 1.93 2.64
CV 1.56 1.08 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
211.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.17 +1.06
SD 2.13 1.10 2.34
CV 0.96 0.94 —
Max 9 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
1—22.22%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.61 -0.06
SD 1.20 1.46 1.95
CV 0.77 0.91 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
211.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total44.44%27.78%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.89 +1.28
SD 1.86 0.96 2.16
CV 0.86 1.08 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%50.00%
2———5.56%——5.56%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%22.22%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.22 -1.00
SD 1.26 2.16 2.43
CV 1.03 0.97 —
Max 4 9 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
116.67%16.67%11.11%11.11%——55.56%
211.11%—————11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.28 -0.33
SD 0.80 1.32 1.75
CV 0.85 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%16.67%———38.89%
116.67%—5.56%———22.22%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.89 +0.78
SD 1.88 0.83 2.05
CV 1.13 0.94 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%————27.78%
15.56%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.22 +0.11
SD 1.24 1.06 1.53
CV 0.93 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%11.11%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.17 -0.17
SD 1.08 1.04 1.38
CV 1.08 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
116.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%55.56%
25.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.06 -0.83
SD 0.88 1.89 2.07
CV 0.72 0.92 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sarpsborg 23 18.28 +4.72
2 Fredrikstad 24 19.45 +4.55
3 Lyn Oslo 26 21.76 +4.24
4 Frigg Oslo 20 17.03 +2.97
5 Sandefjord 17 18.10 -1.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 12 17.51 -5.51
2 Raufoss 10 14.46 -4.46
3 Valerenga 17 19.21 -2.21
4 Skeid 17 18.69 -1.69
5 Viking 14 15.51 -1.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 6 May 3 – Jun 7 1 in 332
2 Sarpsborg 5 Jun 12 – Aug 12 1 in 140
3 Fredrikstad 3 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 17
4 Raufoss 1 Jun 8 – Jun 8 1 in 9
5 Frigg Oslo 2 Jul 28 – Aug 9 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raufoss 6 Apr 26 – May 30 1 in 186
2 Skeid 2 Jun 8 – Jun 12 1 in 19
3 Sandefjord 2 Jun 13 – Jun 20 1 in 12
4 Viking 3 Jun 21 – Aug 9 1 in 11
5 Brann 3 Jul 26 – Aug 13 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 11 Apr 26 – Aug 8 1 in 48
2 Frigg Oslo 6 May 29 – Aug 9 1 in 18
3 Fredrikstad 7 Aug 12 – Oct 4 1 in 17
4 Sarpsborg 5 Jun 12 – Aug 12 1 in 6
5 Raufoss 3 Jun 8 – Jun 21 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 8 May 3 – Jun 19 1 in 61
2 Brann 7 May 31 – Aug 13 1 in 11
3 Frigg Oslo 6 May 19 – Jun 19 1 in 8
4 Lyn Oslo 3 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 7
5 Sandefjord 4 Jun 7 – Jul 26 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Lyn Oslo39.51%20.64%12.84%9.54%6.55%4.42%2.89%2.12%1.11%0.38%
Fredrikstad15.16%16.70%14.49%12.83%11.57%9.21%7.32%5.96%4.54%2.22%
Sarpsborg8.30%11.72%12.99%12.00%11.86%11.14%10.44%9.57%7.35%4.63%
Frigg Oslo3.51%5.86%8.37%9.84%10.85%12.24%13.20%12.84%13.64%9.65%
Skeid9.09%11.85%13.20%12.53%12.66%11.66%9.82%8.50%6.65%4.04%
Valerenga11.47%13.35%13.63%12.60%11.70%10.97%9.86%7.56%5.71%3.15%
Sandefjord6.51%9.07%10.36%11.81%11.84%12.10%12.01%10.87%9.15%6.28%
Viking1.32%2.51%3.46%5.72%6.87%9.44%12.48%15.33%19.34%23.53%
Brann4.48%7.01%8.33%9.51%11.09%11.68%12.70%13.18%12.13%9.89%
Raufoss0.65%1.29%2.33%3.62%5.01%7.14%9.28%14.07%20.38%36.23%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.89%
Clear Edge
44.44%30.00%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
183 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
066.42500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Lyn Oslo, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.64 * Some Luck: 2.64 to 3.97 * Lucky: 3.97 to 5.29 * Wild Swing: 5.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.79 * Close: 1.79 to 2.68 * Off: 2.68 to 3.58 * Way Off: 3.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.62 points
Some Luck
03.318
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
02.245
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.21%
Sarpsborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.73%
Brann
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.24
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Clear Edge
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.09
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.82
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.86
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.050
Well Within Noise
00.1680.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo 98.51% 1.49%
Fredrikstad 93.24% 6.76%
Valerenga 91.14% 8.86%
Skeid 89.31% 10.69%
Sarpsborg 88.02% 11.98%
Sandefjord 84.57% 15.43%
Brann 77.98% 22.02%
Frigg Oslo 76.71% 23.29%
Viking 57.13% 42.87%
Raufoss 43.39% 56.61%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1964-04-24 Skeid L 0-1 1180 1171 48.1% 31.3% 20.6% -9.5 0
1964-04-24 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1171 1180 20.6% 31.3% 48.1% +9.5 2
1964-04-26 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1174 1161 48.5% 31.2% 20.2% -18.0 0
1964-04-26 @ Brann W 2-0 1161 1174 20.2% 31.2% 48.5% +18.0 2
1964-04-26 Raufoss W 2-1 1141 1097 51.9% 30.7% 17.4% +4.2 2
1964-04-26 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1097 1141 17.4% 30.7% 51.9% -4.2 0
1964-04-26 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1143 1151 46.2% 31.5% 22.4% -1.0 1
1964-04-26 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1151 1143 22.4% 31.5% 46.2% +1.0 1
1964-04-26 Viking W 4-1 1123 1134 45.7% 31.5% 22.8% +12.6 2
1964-04-26 @ Sarpsborg L 1-4 1134 1123 22.8% 31.5% 45.7% -12.6 0
1964-05-02 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1179 1136 51.8% 30.7% 17.5% +4.2 4
1964-05-02 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1136 1179 17.5% 30.7% 51.8% -4.2 2
1964-05-03 Brann W 4-1 1152 1156 46.5% 31.5% 22.0% +12.3 3
1964-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-4 1156 1152 22.0% 31.5% 46.5% -12.3 0
1964-05-03 Valerenga L 1-2 1093 1171 37.1% 31.8% 31.1% -7.3 0
1964-05-03 @ Raufoss W 2-1 1171 1093 31.1% 31.8% 37.1% +7.3 2
1964-05-03 Sandefjord D 0-0 1181 1142 51.2% 30.8% 17.9% -1.6 3
1964-05-03 @ Skeid D 0-0 1142 1181 17.9% 30.8% 51.2% +1.6 2
1964-05-03 Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1122 1145 44.2% 31.6% 24.1% -0.8 1
1964-05-03 @ Viking D 1-1 1145 1122 24.1% 31.6% 44.2% +0.8 3
1964-05-10 Skeid D 2-2 1144 1179 42.8% 31.7% 25.5% -0.5 1
1964-05-10 @ Brann D 2-2 1179 1144 25.5% 31.7% 42.8% +0.5 4
1964-05-10 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1183 1164 49.2% 31.1% 19.7% -18.2 4
1964-05-10 @ Fredrikstad W 2-0 1164 1183 19.7% 31.1% 49.2% +18.2 5
1964-05-10 Raufoss W 3-1 1144 1085 53.4% 30.4% 16.2% +6.8 4
1964-05-10 @ Sandefjord L 1-3 1085 1144 16.2% 30.4% 53.4% -6.8 0
1964-05-10 Viking W 2-1 1178 1121 53.2% 30.4% 16.4% +4.0 4
1964-05-10 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1121 1178 16.4% 30.4% 53.2% -4.0 1
1964-05-11 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1146 1132 48.7% 31.2% 20.1% +9.4 5
1964-05-11 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-2 1132 1146 20.1% 31.2% 48.7% -9.4 2
1964-05-15 Valerenga D 0-0 1122 1182 39.6% 31.8% 28.6% -0.5 3
1964-05-15 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1182 1122 28.6% 31.8% 39.6% +0.5 5
1964-05-15 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1180 1165 48.7% 31.2% 20.1% -1.2 5
1964-05-15 @ Skeid D 1-1 1165 1180 20.1% 31.2% 48.7% +1.2 5
1964-05-16 Brann W 1-0 1151 1143 47.9% 31.3% 20.8% +5.1 6
1964-05-16 @ Sandefjord L 0-1 1143 1151 20.8% 31.3% 47.9% -5.1 1
1964-05-16 Raufoss W 1-0 1117 1079 51.3% 30.8% 17.9% +4.5 3
1964-05-16 @ Viking L 0-1 1079 1117 17.9% 30.8% 51.3% -4.5 0
1964-05-19 Lyn Oslo L 0-6 1156 1182 43.8% 31.7% 24.5% -46.0 5
1964-05-19 @ Frigg Oslo W 6-0 1182 1156 24.5% 31.7% 43.8% +46.0 7
1964-05-22 Frigg Oslo W 3-1 1182 1110 54.8% 30.1% 15.2% +6.4 7
1964-05-22 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1110 1182 15.2% 30.1% 54.8% -6.4 5
1964-05-23 Viking W 5-0 1138 1122 48.9% 31.2% 19.9% +21.7 3
1964-05-23 @ Brann L 0-5 1122 1138 19.9% 31.2% 48.9% -21.7 3
1964-05-24 Sandefjord W 2-1 1166 1156 48.2% 31.3% 20.5% +4.8 7
1964-05-24 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1156 1166 20.5% 31.3% 48.2% -4.8 6
1964-05-24 Skeid W 3-2 1228 1178 52.5% 30.6% 16.9% +3.9 9
1964-05-24 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1178 1228 16.9% 30.6% 52.5% -3.9 5
1964-05-24 Sarpsborg L 1-4 1074 1122 41.2% 31.8% 27.1% -19.3 0
1964-05-24 @ Raufoss W 4-1 1122 1074 27.1% 31.8% 41.2% +19.3 5
1964-05-29 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1103 1171 38.5% 31.8% 29.7% -0.3 6
1964-05-29 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1171 1103 29.7% 31.8% 38.5% +0.4 8
1964-05-30 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1055 1232 24.4% 30.7% 44.9% -10.7 0
1964-05-30 @ Raufoss W 2-0 1232 1055 44.9% 30.7% 24.4% +10.7 11
1964-05-30 Skeid D 1-1 1100 1174 37.6% 31.8% 30.6% -0.3 4
1964-05-30 @ Viking D 1-1 1174 1100 30.6% 31.8% 37.6% +0.3 6
1964-05-31 Brann W 1-0 1141 1160 44.8% 31.6% 23.6% +5.6 7
1964-05-31 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1160 1141 23.6% 31.6% 44.8% -5.6 3
1964-05-31 Sandefjord L 0-1 1189 1151 51.2% 30.8% 18.0% -10.0 7
1964-05-31 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1151 1189 18.0% 30.8% 51.2% +10.0 8
1964-06-06 Viking W 4-2 1171 1100 54.7% 30.1% 15.2% +5.8 10
1964-06-06 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1100 1171 15.2% 30.1% 54.7% -5.8 4
1964-06-07 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1243 1147 57.0% 29.5% 13.6% +3.6 13
1964-06-07 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1147 1243 13.6% 29.5% 57.0% -3.6 7
1964-06-07 Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1161 1103 53.3% 30.4% 16.3% -1.6 9
1964-06-07 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1103 1161 16.3% 30.4% 53.3% +1.6 7
1964-06-08 Raufoss L 1-4 1175 1044 60.0% 28.4% 11.6% -26.5 6
1964-06-08 @ Skeid W 4-1 1044 1175 11.6% 28.4% 60.0% +26.5 2
1964-06-09 Valerenga D 1-1 1154 1179 44.1% 31.6% 24.2% -0.8 4
1964-06-09 @ Brann D 1-1 1179 1154 24.2% 31.6% 44.1% +0.8 8
1964-06-12 Skeid W 1-0 1143 1148 46.5% 31.5% 22.1% +5.3 9
1964-06-12 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1148 1143 22.1% 31.5% 46.5% -5.3 6
1964-06-12 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1180 1246 38.6% 31.8% 29.5% -0.4 9
1964-06-12 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1246 1180 29.5% 31.8% 38.6% +0.4 14
1964-06-13 Sandefjord W 2-0 1094 1160 38.8% 31.8% 29.4% +12.4 6
1964-06-13 @ Viking L 0-2 1160 1094 29.4% 31.8% 38.8% -12.4 9
1964-06-14 Brann D 0-0 1104 1154 41.0% 31.8% 27.2% -0.6 8
1964-06-14 @ Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1154 1104 27.2% 31.8% 41.0% +0.6 5
1964-06-14 Fredrikstad D 4-4 1071 1177 33.2% 31.7% 35.2% +0.0 3
1964-06-14 @ Raufoss D 4-4 1177 1071 35.2% 31.7% 33.2% -0.0 11
1964-06-19 Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1143 1104 51.3% 30.8% 17.8% -1.4 7
1964-06-19 @ Skeid D 1-1 1104 1143 17.8% 30.8% 51.3% +1.4 9
1964-06-20 Valerenga L 0-1 1177 1179 46.8% 31.4% 21.8% -9.3 11
1964-06-20 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1179 1177 21.8% 31.4% 46.8% +9.3 11
1964-06-20 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1147 1149 46.9% 31.4% 21.7% -8.8 9
1964-06-20 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1149 1147 21.7% 31.4% 46.9% +8.8 11
1964-06-21 Viking W 2-1 1247 1106 60.9% 28.1% 11.0% +2.8 16
1964-06-21 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1106 1247 11.0% 28.1% 60.9% -2.8 6
1964-06-21 Brann D 0-0 1071 1154 36.4% 31.8% 31.8% -0.2 4
1964-06-21 @ Raufoss D 0-0 1154 1071 31.8% 31.8% 36.4% +0.2 6
1964-07-26 Brann W 4-0 1168 1154 48.6% 31.2% 20.2% +17.8 13
1964-07-26 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1154 1168 20.2% 31.2% 48.6% -17.8 6
1964-07-26 Sandefjord D 1-1 1250 1138 58.3% 29.0% 12.7% -2.0 17
1964-07-26 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1138 1250 12.7% 29.0% 58.3% +2.0 10
1964-07-26 Sarpsborg L 1-6 1103 1157 40.4% 31.8% 27.8% -30.0 6
1964-07-26 @ Viking W 6-1 1157 1103 27.8% 31.8% 40.4% +30.0 13
1964-07-28 Frigg Oslo L 0-3 1070 1105 42.8% 31.7% 25.4% -23.6 4
1964-07-28 @ Raufoss W 3-0 1105 1070 25.4% 31.7% 42.8% +23.6 11
1964-07-28 Valerenga W 3-2 1141 1188 41.3% 31.8% 27.0% +5.5 9
1964-07-28 @ Skeid L 2-3 1188 1141 27.0% 31.8% 41.3% -5.5 11
1964-08-08 Lyn Oslo L 0-7 1137 1248 32.6% 31.6% 35.8% -42.7 6
1964-08-08 @ Brann W 7-0 1248 1137 35.8% 31.6% 32.6% +42.7 19
1964-08-08 Skeid W 1-0 1141 1147 46.3% 31.5% 22.2% +5.4 12
1964-08-08 @ Sandefjord L 0-1 1147 1141 22.2% 31.5% 46.3% -5.4 9
1964-08-08 Fredrikstad W 3-1 1187 1186 47.2% 31.4% 21.4% +8.5 15
1964-08-08 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1186 1187 21.4% 31.4% 47.2% -8.5 13
1964-08-08 Raufoss D 1-1 1183 1047 60.5% 28.3% 11.3% -2.2 12
1964-08-08 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1047 1183 11.3% 28.3% 60.5% +2.2 5
1964-08-09 Viking W 4-3 1129 1073 53.0% 30.5% 16.5% +3.7 13
1964-08-09 @ Frigg Oslo L 3-4 1073 1129 16.5% 30.5% 53.0% -3.7 6
1964-08-12 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1290 1177 58.5% 29.0% 12.5% -10.6 19
1964-08-12 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1177 1290 12.5% 29.0% 58.5% +10.6 15
1964-08-12 Sandefjord W 3-0 1049 1146 34.5% 31.7% 33.7% +19.8 7
1964-08-12 @ Raufoss L 0-3 1146 1049 33.7% 31.7% 34.5% -19.8 12
1964-08-12 Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1196 1132 53.8% 30.3% 15.9% +4.1 17
1964-08-12 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1132 1196 15.9% 30.3% 53.8% -4.1 13
1964-08-12 Valerenga W 1-0 1070 1181 32.6% 31.6% 35.8% +7.5 8
1964-08-12 @ Viking L 0-1 1181 1070 35.8% 31.6% 32.6% -7.5 12
1964-08-13 Brann W 4-0 1142 1094 52.2% 30.6% 17.1% +15.6 11
1964-08-13 @ Skeid L 0-4 1094 1142 17.1% 30.6% 52.2% -15.6 6
1964-08-15 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1173 1200 43.8% 31.7% 24.5% +10.9 14
1964-08-15 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1200 1173 24.5% 31.7% 43.8% -10.9 17
1964-08-16 Sandefjord W 3-1 1078 1126 41.1% 31.8% 27.1% +10.1 8
1964-08-16 @ Brann L 1-3 1126 1078 27.1% 31.8% 41.1% -10.1 12
1964-08-16 Skeid D 1-1 1188 1157 50.4% 30.9% 18.6% -1.3 16
1964-08-16 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1157 1188 18.6% 30.9% 50.4% +1.3 12
1964-08-16 Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1280 1128 61.7% 27.8% 10.5% -1.7 20
1964-08-16 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1128 1280 10.5% 27.8% 61.7% +1.7 14
1964-08-16 Viking D 0-0 1069 1077 46.0% 31.5% 22.4% -1.1 8
1964-08-16 @ Raufoss D 0-0 1077 1069 22.4% 31.5% 46.0% +1.1 9
1964-08-28 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1159 1278 31.4% 31.6% 37.0% -6.9 12
1964-08-28 @ Skeid W 1-0 1278 1159 37.0% 31.6% 31.4% +6.9 22
1964-08-29 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1116 1186 38.2% 31.8% 30.0% -0.3 13
1964-08-29 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1186 1116 30.0% 31.8% 38.2% +0.3 17
1964-08-30 Valerenga W 3-1 1130 1184 40.4% 31.8% 27.8% +10.3 16
1964-08-30 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-3 1184 1130 27.8% 31.8% 40.4% -10.3 14
1964-08-30 Raufoss W 3-2 1189 1068 59.2% 28.7% 12.1% +2.9 19
1964-08-30 @ Sarpsborg L 2-3 1068 1189 12.1% 28.7% 59.2% -2.8 8
1964-09-01 Viking W 3-1 1152 1078 54.8% 30.1% 15.1% +6.4 14
1964-09-01 @ Skeid L 1-3 1078 1152 15.1% 30.1% 54.8% -6.4 9
1964-09-02 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1088 1192 33.6% 31.7% 34.7% +13.9 10
1964-09-02 @ Brann L 0-2 1192 1088 34.7% 31.7% 33.6% -13.9 19
1964-09-02 Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1187 1140 52.1% 30.6% 17.2% -1.1 18
1964-09-02 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1140 1187 17.2% 30.6% 52.1% +1.1 17
1964-09-02 Valerenga W 2-0 1116 1174 39.8% 31.8% 28.4% +12.1 15
1964-09-02 @ Sandefjord L 0-2 1174 1116 28.4% 31.8% 39.8% -12.1 14
1964-09-03 Raufoss W 2-1 1285 1065 67.0% 25.2% 7.7% +1.9 24
1964-09-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1065 1285 7.7% 25.2% 67.0% -1.9 8
1964-09-09 Brann W 1-0 1072 1102 43.4% 31.7% 24.9% +5.8 11
1964-09-09 @ Viking L 0-1 1102 1072 24.9% 31.7% 43.4% -5.8 10
1964-09-11 Sandefjord L 0-2 1142 1128 48.6% 31.2% 20.2% -18.0 17
1964-09-11 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1128 1142 20.2% 31.2% 48.6% +18.0 17
1964-09-13 Skeid L 1-3 1063 1158 34.8% 31.7% 33.5% -12.0 8
1964-09-13 @ Raufoss W 3-1 1158 1063 33.5% 31.7% 34.8% +12.0 16
1964-09-13 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1178 1287 32.9% 31.6% 35.5% +0.1 20
1964-09-13 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1287 1178 35.5% 31.6% 32.9% -0.1 25
1964-09-13 Brann D 0-0 1162 1096 54.0% 30.2% 15.7% -1.9 15
1964-09-13 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1096 1162 15.7% 30.2% 54.0% +1.8 11
1964-09-13 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1078 1186 33.0% 31.6% 35.4% -13.4 11
1964-09-13 @ Viking W 2-0 1186 1078 35.4% 31.6% 33.0% +13.4 20
1964-09-27 Frigg Oslo D 3-3 1098 1124 44.0% 31.7% 24.3% -0.5 12
1964-09-27 @ Brann D 3-3 1124 1098 24.3% 31.7% 44.0% +0.5 18
1964-09-27 Raufoss W 9-1 1199 1051 61.5% 27.9% 10.7% +15.9 22
1964-09-27 @ Fredrikstad L 1-9 1051 1199 10.7% 27.9% 61.5% -15.9 8
1964-09-27 Valerenga L 2-3 1287 1160 59.7% 28.6% 11.8% -10.2 25
1964-09-27 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1160 1287 11.8% 28.6% 59.7% +10.2 17
1964-09-27 Viking L 1-3 1146 1064 55.6% 29.9% 14.6% -17.6 17
1964-09-27 @ Sandefjord W 3-1 1064 1146 14.6% 29.9% 55.6% +17.6 13
1964-09-27 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1170 1178 46.1% 31.5% 22.4% -1.1 17
1964-09-27 @ Skeid D 0-0 1178 1170 22.4% 31.5% 46.1% +1.1 21
1964-10-02 Skeid W 2-1 1124 1169 41.5% 31.8% 26.7% +5.8 20
1964-10-02 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1169 1124 26.7% 31.8% 41.5% -5.8 17
1964-10-04 Raufoss L 0-1 1098 1035 53.8% 30.3% 15.9% -10.4 12
1964-10-04 @ Brann W 1-0 1035 1098 15.9% 30.3% 53.8% +10.5 10
1964-10-04 Sandefjord W 4-0 1179 1128 52.6% 30.6% 16.9% +15.4 23
1964-10-04 @ Sarpsborg L 0-4 1128 1179 16.9% 30.6% 52.6% -15.4 17
1964-10-04 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1170 1215 41.5% 31.8% 26.7% -23.0 17
1964-10-04 @ Valerenga W 3-0 1215 1170 26.7% 31.8% 41.5% +23.0 24
1964-10-04 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1082 1276 22.6% 30.3% 47.1% +0.7 14
1964-10-04 @ Viking D 2-2 1276 1082 47.1% 30.3% 22.6% -0.7 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1964-06-08 11.55% Raufoss 1044 4 @ Skeid 1175 1
2 1964-09-27 11.77% Valerenga 1160 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1287 2
3 1964-08-12 12.54% Fredrikstad 1177 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1290 1
4 1964-09-27 14.56% Viking 1064 3 @ Sandefjord 1146 1
5 1964-10-04 15.93% Raufoss 1035 1 @ Brann 1098 0
6 1964-05-31 17.98% Sandefjord 1151 1 @ Valerenga 1189 0
7 1964-05-10 19.65% Lyn Oslo 1164 2 @ Fredrikstad 1183 0
8 1964-09-11 20.17% Sandefjord 1128 2 @ Frigg Oslo 1142 0
9 1964-04-26 20.25% Fredrikstad 1161 2 @ Brann 1174 0
10 1964-04-24 20.65% Skeid 1171 1 @ Valerenga 1180 0
11 1964-06-20 21.70% Sarpsborg 1149 2 @ Sandefjord 1147 1
12 1964-06-20 21.78% Valerenga 1179 1 @ Fredrikstad 1177 0
13 1964-05-19 24.52% Lyn Oslo 1182 6 @ Frigg Oslo 1156 0
14 1964-07-28 25.45% Frigg Oslo 1105 3 @ Raufoss 1070 0
15 1964-10-04 26.70% Fredrikstad 1215 3 @ Valerenga 1170 0
16 1964-05-24 27.06% Sarpsborg 1122 4 @ Raufoss 1074 1
17 1964-07-26 27.82% Sarpsborg 1157 6 @ Viking 1103 1
18 1964-05-03 31.05% Valerenga 1171 2 @ Raufoss 1093 1
19 1964-08-12 32.57% @ Viking 1070 1 Valerenga 1181 0
20 1964-09-13 33.48% Skeid 1158 3 @ Raufoss 1063 1
21 1964-09-02 33.60% @ Brann 1088 2 Sarpsborg 1192 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-05-19 45.97 Lyn Oslo 6 1182 24.52% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1156 43.81% 31.67%
2 1964-08-08 42.65 Lyn Oslo 7 1248 35.82% @ Brann 0 1137 32.56% 31.63%
3 1964-07-26 30.05 Sarpsborg 6 1157 27.82% @ Viking 1 1103 40.38% 31.80%
4 1964-06-08 26.55 Raufoss 4 1044 11.55% @ Skeid 1 1175 60.01% 28.44%
5 1964-07-28 23.60 Frigg Oslo 3 1105 25.45% @ Raufoss 0 1070 42.83% 31.72%
6 1964-10-04 23.03 Fredrikstad 3 1215 26.70% @ Valerenga 0 1170 41.53% 31.77%
7 1964-05-23 21.72 @ Brann 5 1138 48.92% Viking 0 1122 19.90% 31.18%
8 1964-08-12 19.77 @ Raufoss 3 1049 34.53% Sandefjord 0 1146 33.74% 31.73%
9 1964-05-24 19.29 Sarpsborg 4 1122 27.06% @ Raufoss 1 1074 41.16% 31.78%
10 1964-05-10 18.23 Lyn Oslo 2 1164 19.65% @ Fredrikstad 0 1183 49.21% 31.14%
11 1964-09-11 18.04 Sandefjord 2 1128 20.17% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1142 48.61% 31.22%
12 1964-04-26 18.02 Fredrikstad 2 1161 20.25% @ Brann 0 1174 48.52% 31.23%
13 1964-07-26 17.84 @ Fredrikstad 4 1168 48.58% Brann 0 1154 20.20% 31.22%
14 1964-09-27 17.57 Viking 3 1064 14.56% @ Sandefjord 1 1146 55.58% 29.86%
15 1964-09-27 15.94 @ Fredrikstad 9 1199 61.47% Raufoss 1 1051 10.66% 27.87%
16 1964-08-13 15.61 @ Skeid 4 1142 52.25% Brann 0 1094 17.12% 30.63%
17 1964-10-04 15.40 @ Sarpsborg 4 1179 52.59% Sandefjord 0 1128 16.85% 30.56%
18 1964-09-02 13.87 @ Brann 2 1088 33.60% Sarpsborg 0 1192 34.72% 31.69%
19 1964-09-13 13.39 Fredrikstad 2 1186 35.36% @ Viking 0 1078 32.98% 31.65%
20 1964-04-26 12.62 @ Sarpsborg 4 1123 45.72% Viking 1 1134 22.75% 31.53%
21 1964-06-13 12.39 @ Viking 2 1094 38.79% Sandefjord 0 1160 29.39% 31.81%
22 1964-05-03 12.30 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1152 46.53% Brann 1 1156 22.01% 31.46%
23 1964-09-02 12.09 @ Sandefjord 2 1116 39.82% Valerenga 0 1174 28.37% 31.81%
24 1964-09-13 12.04 Skeid 3 1158 33.48% @ Raufoss 1 1063 34.78% 31.74%
25 1964-08-15 10.88 @ Valerenga 2 1173 43.83% Sarpsborg 0 1200 24.50% 31.67%