Home / Leagues / Norway / Main League / 1963
‹ ›

1963 Main League Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Brann

24 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lyn Oslo

4.54 points above expected

23 points · 18.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valerenga

6.32 points below expected

16 points · 22.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Brann 18 10 4 4 24 46 27 +19 21.69 +2.31
2 Lyn Oslo 18 10 3 5 23 38 28 +10 18.46 +4.54
3 Skeid 18 9 2 7 20 41 26 +15 19.56 +0.44
4 Fredrikstad 18 7 6 5 20 32 25 +7 18.95 +1.05
5 Frigg Oslo 18 6 6 6 18 31 40 -9 16.54 +1.46
6 Sarpsborg 18 6 5 7 17 26 35 -9 13.72 +3.28
7 Viking 18 6 5 7 17 26 37 -11 15.87 +1.13
8 Valerenga 18 7 2 9 16 44 37 +7 22.32 -6.32
9 Steinkjer 18 5 4 9 14 23 34 -11 18.58 -4.58
10 Gjovik-Lyn 18 5 1 12 11 29 47 -18 14.30 -3.30

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Brann 1370 24 21.69 +2.31 78.7% 7 16 19 22 24 27 34
Valerenga 1342 16 22.32 -6.32 4.8% 7 17 20 22 25 28 34
Skeid 1327 20 19.56 +0.44 60.6% 6 14 17 20 22 25 34
Fredrikstad 1307 20 18.95 +1.05 66.7% 7 13 17 19 21 25 32
Lyn Oslo 1289 23 18.46 +4.54 92.6% 6 13 16 18 21 24 31
Steinkjer 1252 14 18.58 -4.58 12.4% 4 13 16 19 21 24 34
Frigg Oslo 1249 18 16.54 +1.46 70.5% 4 11 14 17 19 23 29
Viking 1223 17 15.87 +1.13 67.9% 4 10 13 16 18 22 28
Sarpsborg 1179 17 13.72 +3.28 85.8% 2 8 11 14 16 20 27
Gjovik-Lyn 1170 11 14.30 -3.30 21.2% 3 9 12 14 17 20 29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE FO GJO LO SAR SKE STE VAL VIK
Brann —
0-2-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.59
1-0-1
3.86
1-0-1
3.27
1-1-0
3.98
1-0-1
3.03
2-0-0
3.20
2-0-0
2.73
1-1-0
3.65
Fredrikstad
0-2-0
2.30
 —
1-1-0
3.08
0-1-1
3.54
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
3.62
2-0-0
2.72
2-0-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
3.27
Frigg Oslo
1-0-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.48
 —
2-0-0
3.07
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
3.22
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.42
1-0-1
1.97
1-1-0
2.87
Gjovik-Lyn
1-0-1
1.73
1-1-0
2.03
0-0-2
2.49
 —
1-0-1
2.05
1-0-1
2.85
0-0-2
2.09
0-0-2
2.17
0-0-2
1.64
1-0-1
2.54
Lyn Oslo
1-0-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.52
 —
1-0-1
3.53
1-1-0
2.61
1-1-0
2.63
2-0-0
2.12
1-0-1
3.08
Sarpsborg
0-1-1
1.61
1-1-0
1.95
1-1-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.03
 —
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
2.05
1-0-1
1.52
0-1-1
2.40
Skeid
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.84
1-1-0
3.17
2-0-0
3.48
0-1-1
2.95
2-0-0
3.61
 —
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.33
1-0-1
3.36
Steinkjer
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
2.65
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
3.39
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.45
 —
1-0-1
2.29
1-1-0
3.17
Valerenga
0-0-2
2.83
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.95
0-0-2
3.45
1-0-1
4.07
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
3.28
 —
0-1-1
3.79
Viking
0-1-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
2.20
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
1.79
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +3.0
Allowed 0.68 -4.6
Differential 0.70 +2.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%4.44%3.33%3.33%1.11%2.78%16.11%
14.44%10.00%8.33%5.56%2.22%2.78%33.33%
23.33%8.33%6.67%2.22%1.67%0.56%22.78%
33.33%5.56%2.22%3.33%1.11%—15.56%
41.11%2.22%1.67%1.11%——6.11%
5+2.78%2.78%0.56%———6.11%
Total16.11%33.33%22.78%15.56%6.11%6.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.87 1.87 +0.00
SD 1.55 1.55 2.51
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
1—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
2—11.11%————11.11%
311.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total11.11%61.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.50 +1.06
SD 2.15 1.42 2.90
CV 0.84 0.95 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%16.67%16.67%11.11%——61.11%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.39 +0.39
SD 1.17 1.09 1.61
CV 0.66 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
15.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
2——11.11%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.22 -0.50
SD 1.60 2.18 3.03
CV 0.93 0.98 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
1——5.56%5.56%11.11%—22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%27.78%16.67%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.61 -1.00
SD 1.29 1.75 2.50
CV 0.80 0.67 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
1—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
25.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.56 +0.56
SD 1.60 1.20 2.50
CV 0.76 0.77 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
111.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.94 -0.50
SD 0.92 1.89 2.31
CV 0.64 0.97 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%————22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total5.56%55.56%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.44 +0.83
SD 1.87 0.78 2.01
CV 0.82 0.54 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—11.11%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%11.11%27.78%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.89 -0.61
SD 1.02 1.28 1.72
CV 0.80 0.68 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1——16.67%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+16.67%—————16.67%
Total22.22%16.67%27.78%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 2.06 +0.39
SD 2.20 1.73 3.57
CV 0.90 0.84 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%50.00%
25.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.06 -0.61
SD 0.70 1.63 1.85
CV 0.49 0.79 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 23 18.46 +4.54
2 Sarpsborg 17 13.72 +3.28
3 Brann 24 21.69 +2.31
4 Frigg Oslo 18 16.54 +1.46
5 Viking 17 15.87 +1.13

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 16 22.32 -6.32
2 Steinkjer 14 18.58 -4.58
3 Gjovik-Lyn 11 14.30 -3.30
4 Skeid 20 19.56 +0.44
5 Fredrikstad 20 18.95 +1.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 4 May 23 – Jun 15 1 in 159
2 Frigg Oslo 3 Aug 6 – Aug 22 1 in 65
3 Brann 4 Jun 9 – Jul 28 1 in 31
4 Skeid 4 May 19 – May 30 1 in 14
5 Gjovik-Lyn 2 May 23 – May 26 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gjovik-Lyn 8 Jun 8 – Aug 21 1 in 298
2 Skeid 6 Jun 9 – Aug 18 1 in 214
3 Valerenga 3 Apr 28 – May 12 1 in 58
4 Lyn Oslo 3 Sep 7 – Oct 6 1 in 39
5 Steinkjer 4 Sep 7 – Oct 12 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 10 Apr 26 – Jul 26 1 in 209
2 Frigg Oslo 7 Aug 6 – Oct 6 1 in 68
3 Fredrikstad 9 Jul 28 – Oct 13 1 in 59
4 Viking 6 Jun 22 – Aug 21 1 in 28
5 Sarpsborg 4 Aug 2 – Aug 25 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gjovik-Lyn 10 Jun 8 – Sep 22 1 in 32
2 Steinkjer 7 Aug 17 – Oct 12 1 in 23
3 Brann 4 May 19 – May 30 1 in 15
4 Skeid 6 Jun 9 – Aug 18 1 in 15
5 Fredrikstad 5 May 12 – Jun 8 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Brann29.44%22.44%15.68%10.98%8.38%5.25%4.07%2.16%1.14%0.46%
Lyn Oslo6.93%10.21%12.93%13.74%13.54%13.23%11.60%8.70%5.81%3.31%
Skeid11.86%15.40%15.49%14.65%12.69%10.64%8.04%5.89%3.59%1.75%
Fredrikstad8.41%11.57%13.59%14.53%13.88%12.44%10.21%7.61%4.96%2.80%
Frigg Oslo2.46%3.90%6.81%8.30%10.69%12.84%14.75%15.10%14.15%11.00%
Sarpsborg0.36%0.88%2.02%3.04%4.94%7.26%10.49%15.83%22.95%32.23%
Viking1.26%2.96%5.15%6.91%9.41%11.69%14.37%16.70%17.05%14.50%
Valerenga32.39%22.43%15.17%11.22%7.71%4.94%3.15%1.88%0.82%0.29%
Steinkjer6.36%8.78%11.11%12.85%13.60%13.85%12.10%10.07%7.31%3.97%
Gjovik-Lyn0.53%1.43%2.05%3.78%5.16%7.86%11.22%16.06%22.22%29.69%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.44%
Slight Edge
46.67%21.11%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.5
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
29%
Brann, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.82 * Some Luck: 2.82 to 4.23 * Lucky: 4.23 to 5.64 * Wild Swing: 5.64 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 * Close: 1.54 to 2.32 * Off: 2.32 to 3.09 * Way Off: 3.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.36 points
Some Luck
03.539
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.40
Off
01.934
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.58%
Lyn Oslo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.79%
Valerenga
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.93
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
76%
Clear Edge
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.92
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.34
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.62
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.37
Overconfident
0.1788961.001.8211
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.079
Well Within Noise
00.1730.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valerenga 98.89% 1.11%
Brann 98.40% 1.60%
Skeid 94.66% 5.34%
Fredrikstad 92.24% 7.76%
Lyn Oslo 90.88% 9.12%
Steinkjer 88.72% 11.28%
Frigg Oslo 74.85% 25.15%
Viking 68.45% 31.55%
Gjovik-Lyn 48.09% 51.91%
Sarpsborg 44.82% 55.18%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1963-04-26 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1297 1248 55.8% 21.8% 22.5% -0.7 1
1963-04-26 @ Skeid D 1-1 1248 1297 22.5% 21.8% 55.8% +0.7 1
1963-04-28 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1259 1294 45.5% 22.4% 32.1% -0.3 1
1963-04-28 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1294 1259 32.1% 22.4% 45.5% +0.3 1
1963-04-28 Brann W 2-0 1203 1356 29.6% 21.8% 48.6% +8.9 2
1963-04-28 @ Gjovik-Lyn L 0-2 1356 1203 48.6% 21.8% 29.6% -8.9 0
1963-04-28 Valerenga W 1-0 1170 1359 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% +5.1 2
1963-04-28 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1359 1170 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% -5.1 0
1963-04-28 Steinkjer L 1-3 1235 1286 43.3% 22.4% 34.3% -7.0 0
1963-04-28 @ Viking W 3-1 1286 1235 34.3% 22.4% 43.3% +7.0 2
1963-05-03 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1249 1175 58.5% 21.4% 20.1% +4.3 3
1963-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1175 1249 20.1% 21.4% 58.5% -4.3 2
1963-05-04 Frigg Oslo W 8-1 1347 1259 60.0% 21.2% 18.9% +10.7 2
1963-05-04 @ Brann L 1-8 1259 1347 18.9% 21.2% 60.0% -10.7 1
1963-05-04 Skeid W 1-0 1294 1296 49.8% 22.2% 28.0% +3.0 3
1963-05-04 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1296 1294 28.0% 22.2% 49.8% -3.0 1
1963-05-05 Gjovik-Lyn W 2-0 1293 1212 59.2% 21.3% 19.5% +4.2 4
1963-05-05 @ Steinkjer L 0-2 1212 1293 19.5% 21.3% 59.2% -4.2 2
1963-05-05 Viking L 1-2 1354 1228 63.6% 20.5% 15.8% -5.7 0
1963-05-05 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1228 1354 15.8% 20.5% 63.6% +5.7 2
1963-05-12 Gjovik-Lyn W 1-0 1248 1208 54.8% 21.9% 23.4% +2.6 3
1963-05-12 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-1 1208 1248 23.4% 21.9% 54.8% -2.6 2
1963-05-12 Fredrikstad W 3-1 1171 1297 32.9% 22.1% 45.1% +7.2 4
1963-05-12 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1297 1171 45.1% 22.1% 32.9% -7.2 3
1963-05-12 Valerenga W 2-1 1297 1349 43.2% 22.4% 34.4% +3.4 6
1963-05-12 @ Steinkjer L 1-2 1349 1297 34.4% 22.4% 43.2% -3.4 0
1963-05-12 Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1234 1253 47.6% 22.3% 30.1% -4.2 2
1963-05-12 @ Viking W 3-2 1253 1234 30.1% 22.3% 47.6% +4.2 5
1963-05-19 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1358 1290 57.8% 21.5% 20.7% -0.8 3
1963-05-19 @ Brann D 1-1 1290 1358 20.7% 21.5% 57.8% +0.8 4
1963-05-19 Valerenga L 0-7 1251 1345 37.2% 22.3% 40.5% -23.1 3
1963-05-19 @ Frigg Oslo W 7-0 1345 1251 40.5% 22.3% 37.2% +23.1 2
1963-05-19 Skeid L 1-4 1205 1293 38.2% 22.3% 39.5% -9.0 2
1963-05-19 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 4-1 1293 1205 39.5% 22.3% 38.2% +9.0 3
1963-05-19 Steinkjer D 3-3 1257 1301 44.3% 22.4% 33.3% -0.1 6
1963-05-19 @ Lyn Oslo D 3-3 1301 1257 33.3% 22.4% 44.3% +0.2 7
1963-05-19 Viking L 1-2 1178 1230 43.1% 22.4% 34.5% -4.0 4
1963-05-19 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1230 1178 34.5% 22.4% 43.1% +4.0 4
1963-05-22 Frigg Oslo W 3-0 1302 1228 58.5% 21.4% 20.1% +6.2 5
1963-05-22 @ Skeid L 0-3 1228 1302 20.1% 21.4% 58.5% -6.2 3
1963-05-22 Brann D 1-1 1234 1357 33.4% 22.1% 44.5% +0.2 5
1963-05-22 @ Viking D 1-1 1357 1234 44.5% 22.1% 33.4% -0.2 4
1963-05-23 Gjovik-Lyn L 1-2 1291 1196 60.6% 21.1% 18.3% -5.5 4
1963-05-23 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1196 1291 18.3% 21.1% 60.6% +5.5 4
1963-05-23 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1301 1174 63.7% 20.5% 15.8% -6.1 7
1963-05-23 @ Steinkjer W 1-0 1174 1301 15.8% 20.5% 63.7% +6.1 6
1963-05-23 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1368 1257 62.3% 20.8% 16.9% -5.6 2
1963-05-23 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1257 1368 16.9% 20.8% 62.3% +5.6 8
1963-05-26 Lyn Oslo L 0-6 1356 1263 60.6% 21.1% 18.3% -30.3 4
1963-05-26 @ Brann W 6-0 1263 1356 18.3% 21.1% 60.6% +30.3 10
1963-05-26 Valerenga L 1-3 1285 1363 39.6% 22.4% 38.1% -6.5 4
1963-05-26 @ Fredrikstad W 3-1 1363 1285 38.1% 22.4% 39.6% +6.5 4
1963-05-26 Steinkjer D 1-1 1222 1295 40.2% 22.4% 37.4% -0.1 4
1963-05-26 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1295 1222 37.4% 22.4% 40.2% +0.0 8
1963-05-26 Viking W 5-1 1202 1234 45.8% 22.4% 31.9% +10.0 6
1963-05-26 @ Gjovik-Lyn L 1-5 1234 1202 31.9% 22.4% 45.8% -10.1 5
1963-05-27 Sarpsborg W 4-2 1308 1180 63.8% 20.5% 15.7% +2.6 7
1963-05-27 @ Skeid L 2-4 1180 1308 15.7% 20.5% 63.8% -2.6 6
1963-05-30 Brann W 2-1 1311 1326 48.0% 22.3% 29.7% +3.0 9
1963-05-30 @ Skeid L 1-2 1326 1311 29.7% 22.3% 48.0% -3.0 4
1963-06-08 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1293 1279 51.7% 22.1% 26.2% +2.7 12
1963-06-08 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1279 1293 26.2% 22.1% 51.7% -2.7 4
1963-06-08 Gjovik-Lyn W 4-3 1369 1212 66.4% 19.9% 13.7% +1.4 6
1963-06-08 @ Valerenga L 3-4 1212 1369 13.7% 19.9% 66.4% -1.4 6
1963-06-09 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1177 1222 44.2% 22.4% 33.4% +3.3 8
1963-06-09 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1222 1177 33.4% 22.4% 44.2% -3.3 4
1963-06-09 Brann L 0-3 1295 1323 46.3% 22.3% 31.4% -12.5 8
1963-06-09 @ Steinkjer W 3-0 1323 1295 31.4% 22.3% 46.3% +12.5 6
1963-06-09 Skeid W 1-0 1224 1314 37.9% 22.3% 39.8% +4.0 7
1963-06-09 @ Viking L 0-1 1314 1224 39.8% 22.3% 37.9% -4.0 9
1963-06-14 Valerenga L 1-3 1310 1371 41.9% 22.4% 35.7% -6.8 9
1963-06-14 @ Skeid W 3-1 1371 1310 35.7% 22.4% 41.9% +6.8 8
1963-06-15 Sarpsborg W 7-1 1336 1181 66.2% 19.9% 13.9% +6.9 8
1963-06-15 @ Brann L 1-7 1181 1336 13.9% 19.9% 66.2% -6.9 8
1963-06-15 Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1211 1296 38.5% 22.3% 39.2% -3.5 6
1963-06-15 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 3-2 1296 1211 39.2% 22.3% 38.5% +3.5 14
1963-06-16 Steinkjer W 4-2 1276 1282 49.2% 22.2% 28.6% +4.5 6
1963-06-16 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1282 1276 28.6% 22.2% 49.2% -4.5 8
1963-06-16 Viking W 5-1 1218 1228 48.7% 22.3% 29.0% +9.3 6
1963-06-16 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-5 1228 1218 29.0% 22.3% 48.7% -9.3 7
1963-06-22 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1219 1281 41.8% 22.4% 35.8% +3.5 9
1963-06-22 @ Viking L 1-2 1281 1219 35.8% 22.4% 41.8% -3.5 6
1963-06-23 Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1299 1228 58.2% 21.4% 20.3% -0.6 15
1963-06-23 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1228 1299 20.3% 21.4% 58.2% +0.6 7
1963-06-23 Gjovik-Lyn W 3-0 1174 1207 45.6% 22.4% 32.0% +9.3 10
1963-06-23 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1207 1174 32.0% 22.4% 45.6% -9.3 6
1963-06-23 Skeid W 1-0 1278 1303 46.8% 22.3% 30.9% +3.3 10
1963-06-23 @ Steinkjer L 0-1 1303 1278 30.9% 22.3% 46.8% -3.3 9
1963-06-24 Brann L 2-4 1377 1343 54.2% 21.9% 23.9% -7.6 8
1963-06-24 @ Valerenga W 4-2 1343 1377 23.9% 21.9% 54.2% +7.6 10
1963-07-26 Skeid W 2-1 1298 1299 49.8% 22.2% 28.0% +2.8 17
1963-07-26 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1299 1298 28.0% 22.2% 49.8% -2.9 9
1963-07-28 Gjovik-Lyn W 3-1 1350 1198 66.0% 20.0% 14.0% +2.6 12
1963-07-28 @ Brann L 1-3 1198 1350 14.0% 20.0% 66.0% -2.6 6
1963-07-28 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1277 1228 55.8% 21.8% 22.5% +4.7 8
1963-07-28 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1228 1277 22.5% 21.8% 55.8% -4.7 7
1963-07-28 Viking D 2-2 1281 1222 56.9% 21.6% 21.5% -0.6 11
1963-07-28 @ Steinkjer D 2-2 1222 1281 21.5% 21.6% 56.9% +0.6 10
1963-07-29 Sarpsborg W 5-0 1370 1183 68.8% 19.2% 11.9% +6.1 10
1963-07-29 @ Valerenga L 0-5 1183 1370 11.9% 19.2% 68.8% -6.1 10
1963-08-02 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1177 1301 33.1% 22.1% 44.8% +8.3 12
1963-08-02 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1301 1177 44.8% 22.1% 33.1% -8.3 17
1963-08-04 Steinkjer L 1-2 1195 1280 38.5% 22.3% 39.2% -3.7 6
1963-08-04 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 2-1 1280 1195 39.2% 22.3% 38.5% +3.7 13
1963-08-04 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1297 1282 51.8% 22.1% 26.1% -5.0 9
1963-08-04 @ Skeid W 1-0 1282 1297 26.1% 22.1% 51.8% +5.0 10
1963-08-04 Valerenga D 2-2 1223 1376 29.5% 21.8% 48.6% +0.3 11
1963-08-04 @ Viking D 2-2 1376 1223 48.6% 21.8% 29.5% -0.3 11
1963-08-06 Brann W 4-3 1223 1353 32.5% 22.1% 45.5% +3.9 9
1963-08-06 @ Frigg Oslo L 3-4 1353 1223 45.5% 22.1% 32.5% -3.9 12
1963-08-07 Gjovik-Lyn W 3-2 1223 1191 53.8% 21.9% 24.2% +2.4 13
1963-08-07 @ Viking L 2-3 1191 1223 24.2% 21.9% 53.8% -2.4 6
1963-08-17 Steinkjer W 4-0 1376 1284 60.3% 21.1% 18.5% +7.6 13
1963-08-17 @ Valerenga L 0-4 1284 1376 18.5% 21.1% 60.3% -7.6 13
1963-08-18 Skeid W 2-1 1349 1292 56.7% 21.6% 21.6% +2.3 14
1963-08-18 @ Brann L 1-2 1292 1349 21.6% 21.6% 56.7% -2.3 9
1963-08-18 Sarpsborg D 3-3 1287 1185 61.3% 21.0% 17.7% -0.6 11
1963-08-18 @ Fredrikstad D 3-3 1185 1287 17.7% 21.0% 61.3% +0.6 13
1963-08-18 Frigg Oslo L 1-4 1189 1227 45.0% 22.4% 32.6% -10.2 6
1963-08-18 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 4-1 1227 1189 32.6% 22.4% 45.0% +10.2 11
1963-08-18 Viking L 0-2 1293 1226 57.8% 21.5% 20.7% -10.4 17
1963-08-18 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1226 1293 20.7% 21.5% 57.8% +10.4 15
1963-08-21 Brann D 1-1 1286 1351 41.3% 22.4% 36.3% -0.1 12
1963-08-21 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1351 1286 36.3% 22.4% 41.3% +0.1 15
1963-08-21 Gjovik-Lyn W 5-2 1289 1179 62.2% 20.8% 17.0% +3.9 11
1963-08-21 @ Skeid L 2-5 1179 1289 17.0% 20.8% 62.2% -3.9 6
1963-08-21 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1277 1283 49.2% 22.2% 28.5% -4.5 13
1963-08-21 @ Steinkjer W 2-1 1283 1277 28.5% 22.2% 49.2% +4.5 19
1963-08-21 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1236 1186 55.9% 21.7% 22.3% -0.7 16
1963-08-21 @ Viking D 1-1 1186 1236 22.3% 21.7% 55.9% +0.7 14
1963-08-22 Frigg Oslo L 0-3 1383 1238 65.4% 20.1% 14.5% -17.0 13
1963-08-22 @ Valerenga W 3-0 1238 1383 14.5% 20.1% 65.4% +17.0 13
1963-08-24 Viking W 2-1 1351 1235 62.7% 20.7% 16.6% +1.8 17
1963-08-24 @ Brann L 1-2 1235 1351 16.6% 20.7% 62.7% -1.8 16
1963-08-25 Skeid D 3-3 1255 1293 44.9% 22.4% 32.7% -0.2 14
1963-08-25 @ Frigg Oslo D 3-3 1293 1255 32.7% 22.4% 44.9% +0.2 12
1963-08-25 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1175 1286 34.9% 22.2% 42.9% +0.1 7
1963-08-25 @ Gjovik-Lyn D 2-2 1286 1175 42.9% 22.2% 34.9% -0.1 13
1963-08-25 Valerenga W 5-0 1287 1366 39.3% 22.4% 38.3% +17.2 21
1963-08-25 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-5 1366 1287 38.3% 22.4% 39.3% -17.2 13
1963-08-25 Steinkjer D 1-1 1187 1272 38.4% 22.3% 39.2% +0.0 15
1963-08-25 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1272 1187 39.2% 22.3% 38.4% -0.0 14
1963-09-07 Brann L 1-3 1304 1353 43.5% 22.4% 34.1% -7.0 21
1963-09-07 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1353 1304 34.1% 22.4% 43.5% +7.1 19
1963-09-07 Skeid L 1-3 1187 1293 35.5% 22.2% 42.3% -6.0 15
1963-09-07 @ Sarpsborg W 3-1 1293 1187 42.3% 22.2% 35.5% +6.0 14
1963-09-07 Frigg Oslo L 1-3 1272 1254 52.1% 22.1% 25.8% -8.2 14
1963-09-07 @ Steinkjer W 3-1 1254 1272 25.8% 22.1% 52.1% +8.2 16
1963-09-08 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1349 1286 57.3% 21.6% 21.1% -0.6 14
1963-09-08 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1286 1349 21.1% 21.6% 57.3% +0.6 14
1963-09-20 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1263 1181 59.4% 21.3% 19.4% -0.7 17
1963-09-20 @ Frigg Oslo D 2-2 1181 1263 19.4% 21.3% 59.4% +0.7 16
1963-09-22 Steinkjer W 3-0 1360 1264 60.8% 21.1% 18.1% +5.7 21
1963-09-22 @ Brann L 0-3 1264 1360 18.1% 21.1% 60.8% -5.7 14
1963-09-22 Lyn Oslo W 4-0 1287 1297 48.6% 22.3% 29.1% +11.2 16
1963-09-22 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1297 1287 29.1% 22.3% 48.6% -11.2 21
1963-09-22 Valerenga L 0-7 1175 1348 27.2% 21.6% 51.3% -17.8 7
1963-09-22 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 7-0 1348 1175 51.3% 21.6% 27.2% +17.8 16
1963-09-22 Viking W 4-1 1299 1234 57.6% 21.5% 20.8% +5.4 16
1963-09-22 @ Skeid L 1-4 1234 1299 20.8% 21.5% 57.6% -5.4 16
1963-10-04 Skeid L 1-6 1366 1305 57.2% 21.6% 21.2% -20.0 16
1963-10-04 @ Valerenga W 6-1 1305 1366 21.2% 21.6% 57.2% +20.0 18
1963-10-06 Gjovik-Lyn L 1-3 1286 1157 63.9% 20.5% 15.6% -9.9 21
1963-10-06 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1157 1286 15.6% 20.5% 63.9% +9.9 9
1963-10-06 Brann D 1-1 1181 1366 25.9% 21.4% 52.7% +0.6 17
1963-10-06 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1366 1181 52.7% 21.4% 25.9% -0.6 22
1963-10-06 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1258 1298 44.8% 22.4% 32.8% -4.4 14
1963-10-06 @ Steinkjer W 1-0 1298 1258 32.8% 22.4% 44.8% +4.4 18
1963-10-06 Frigg Oslo D 0-0 1228 1262 45.6% 22.4% 32.1% -0.3 17
1963-10-06 @ Viking D 0-0 1262 1228 32.1% 22.4% 45.6% +0.3 18
1963-10-12 Steinkjer W 3-2 1325 1254 58.2% 21.5% 20.3% +2.1 20
1963-10-12 @ Skeid L 2-3 1254 1325 20.3% 21.5% 58.2% -2.1 14
1963-10-13 Valerenga W 3-1 1365 1346 52.3% 22.1% 25.6% +4.6 24
1963-10-13 @ Brann L 1-3 1346 1365 25.6% 22.1% 52.3% -4.6 16
1963-10-13 Viking W 4-1 1302 1228 58.6% 21.4% 20.0% +5.2 20
1963-10-13 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1228 1302 20.0% 21.4% 58.6% -5.2 17
1963-10-13 Lyn Oslo L 0-3 1262 1276 48.2% 22.3% 29.5% -12.9 18
1963-10-13 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-0 1276 1262 29.5% 22.3% 48.2% +12.9 23
1963-10-13 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1167 1182 48.1% 22.3% 29.6% +3.0 11
1963-10-13 @ Gjovik-Lyn L 1-2 1182 1167 29.6% 22.3% 48.1% -3.0 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1963-08-22 14.46% Frigg Oslo 1238 3 @ Valerenga 1383 0
2 1963-10-06 15.63% Gjovik-Lyn 1157 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1286 1
3 1963-05-23 15.77% Sarpsborg 1174 1 @ Steinkjer 1301 0
4 1963-05-05 15.84% Viking 1228 2 @ Valerenga 1354 1
5 1963-05-23 16.93% Lyn Oslo 1257 2 @ Valerenga 1368 1
6 1963-05-23 18.31% Gjovik-Lyn 1196 2 @ Fredrikstad 1291 1
7 1963-05-26 18.33% Lyn Oslo 1263 6 @ Brann 1356 0
8 1963-08-18 20.69% Viking 1226 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1293 0
9 1963-10-04 21.25% Skeid 1305 6 @ Valerenga 1366 1
10 1963-06-24 23.91% Brann 1343 4 @ Valerenga 1377 2
11 1963-04-28 25.37% @ Sarpsborg 1170 1 Valerenga 1359 0
12 1963-09-07 25.79% Frigg Oslo 1254 3 @ Steinkjer 1272 1
13 1963-08-04 26.11% Fredrikstad 1282 1 @ Skeid 1297 0
14 1963-08-21 28.54% Lyn Oslo 1283 2 @ Steinkjer 1277 1
15 1963-10-13 29.49% Lyn Oslo 1276 3 @ Frigg Oslo 1262 0
16 1963-04-28 29.60% @ Gjovik-Lyn 1203 2 Brann 1356 0
17 1963-05-12 30.13% Lyn Oslo 1253 3 @ Viking 1234 2
18 1963-06-09 31.36% Brann 1323 3 @ Steinkjer 1295 0
19 1963-08-06 32.48% @ Frigg Oslo 1223 4 Brann 1353 3
20 1963-08-18 32.64% Frigg Oslo 1227 4 @ Gjovik-Lyn 1189 1
21 1963-10-06 32.83% Fredrikstad 1298 1 @ Steinkjer 1258 0
22 1963-05-12 32.87% @ Sarpsborg 1171 3 Fredrikstad 1297 1
23 1963-08-02 33.14% @ Sarpsborg 1177 2 Lyn Oslo 1301 0
24 1963-09-07 34.07% Brann 1353 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1304 1
25 1963-04-28 34.29% Steinkjer 1286 3 @ Viking 1235 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-05-26 30.29 Lyn Oslo 6 1263 18.33% @ Brann 0 1356 60.56% 21.10%
2 1963-05-19 23.07 Valerenga 7 1345 40.52% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1251 37.18% 22.29%
3 1963-10-04 20.02 Skeid 6 1305 21.25% @ Valerenga 1 1366 57.16% 21.59%
4 1963-09-22 17.78 Valerenga 7 1348 51.27% @ Gjovik-Lyn 0 1175 27.16% 21.57%
5 1963-08-25 17.19 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1287 39.33% Valerenga 0 1366 38.32% 22.35%
6 1963-08-22 17.00 Frigg Oslo 3 1238 14.46% @ Valerenga 0 1383 65.41% 20.13%
7 1963-10-13 12.90 Lyn Oslo 3 1276 29.49% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1262 48.22% 22.28%
8 1963-06-09 12.45 Brann 3 1323 31.36% @ Steinkjer 0 1295 46.29% 22.34%
9 1963-09-22 11.21 @ Fredrikstad 4 1287 48.63% Lyn Oslo 0 1297 29.10% 22.27%
10 1963-05-04 10.71 @ Brann 8 1347 59.95% Frigg Oslo 1 1259 18.85% 21.20%
11 1963-08-18 10.44 Viking 2 1226 20.69% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1293 57.80% 21.51%
12 1963-08-18 10.25 Frigg Oslo 4 1227 32.64% @ Gjovik-Lyn 1 1189 44.99% 22.37%
13 1963-05-26 10.06 @ Gjovik-Lyn 5 1202 45.78% Viking 1 1234 31.86% 22.36%
14 1963-10-06 9.93 Gjovik-Lyn 3 1157 15.63% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1286 63.89% 20.47%
15 1963-06-16 9.32 @ Frigg Oslo 5 1218 48.70% Viking 1 1228 29.03% 22.27%
16 1963-06-23 9.26 @ Sarpsborg 3 1174 45.65% Gjovik-Lyn 0 1207 31.99% 22.36%
17 1963-05-19 8.97 Skeid 4 1293 39.51% @ Gjovik-Lyn 1 1205 38.17% 22.32%
18 1963-04-28 8.90 @ Gjovik-Lyn 2 1203 29.60% Brann 0 1356 48.57% 21.83%
19 1963-08-02 8.31 @ Sarpsborg 2 1177 33.14% Lyn Oslo 0 1301 44.76% 22.10%
20 1963-09-07 8.24 Frigg Oslo 3 1254 25.79% @ Steinkjer 1 1272 52.14% 22.07%
21 1963-06-24 7.63 Brann 4 1343 23.91% @ Valerenga 2 1377 54.18% 21.91%
22 1963-08-17 7.57 @ Valerenga 4 1376 60.31% Steinkjer 0 1284 18.54% 21.14%
23 1963-05-12 7.24 @ Sarpsborg 3 1171 32.87% Fredrikstad 1 1297 45.05% 22.08%
24 1963-09-07 7.05 Brann 3 1353 34.07% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1304 43.55% 22.39%
25 1963-04-28 7.03 Steinkjer 3 1286 34.29% @ Viking 1 1235 43.32% 22.39%