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1972 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Viking

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fredrikstad

9.97 points above expected

34 points · 24.03 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mjolner

6.27 points below expected

12 points · 18.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Viking 22 16 2 4 34 42 15 +27 28.81 +5.19
2 Fredrikstad 22 16 2 4 34 31 16 +15 24.03 +9.97
3 Stromsgodset 22 10 7 5 27 40 29 +11 24.83 +2.17
4 Rosenborg 22 6 10 6 22 22 19 +3 25.81 -3.81
5 Lyn Oslo 22 7 7 8 21 29 22 +7 23.45 -2.45
6 Skeid 22 8 5 9 21 26 26 0 21.23 -0.23
7 Mjondalen 22 9 3 10 21 31 36 -5 19.86 +1.14
8 Brann 22 7 6 9 20 22 23 -1 17.96 +2.04
9 Hamarkameratene 22 6 8 8 20 14 18 -4 21.91 -1.91
10 Sarpsborg 22 6 6 10 18 21 30 -9 20.78 -2.78
11 Hodd 22 4 6 12 14 18 39 -21 17.05 -3.05
12 Mjolner 22 3 6 13 12 10 33 -23 18.27 -6.27

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Viking 1512 34 28.81 +5.19 94.5% 15 23 26 29 31 35 41
Fredrikstad 1472 34 24.03 +9.97 99.7% 10 18 21 24 27 30 38
Stromsgodset 1398 27 24.83 +2.17 75.5% 11 18 22 25 27 31 40
Rosenborg 1397 22 25.81 -3.81 18.9% 8 20 23 26 28 32 39
Lyn Oslo 1383 21 23.45 -2.45 30.1% 8 17 21 24 26 30 36
Skeid 1341 21 21.23 -0.23 52.9% 8 15 19 21 24 28 37
Hamarkameratene 1328 20 21.91 -1.91 36.2% 7 16 19 22 25 28 35
Brann 1314 20 17.96 +2.04 75.5% 6 12 15 18 20 24 33
Mjondalen 1312 21 19.86 +1.14 67.4% 6 14 17 20 22 26 37
Sarpsborg 1288 18 20.78 -2.78 27.6% 6 14 18 21 23 27 35
Hodd 1226 14 17.05 -3.05 24.4% 4 11 15 17 20 23 32
Mjolner 1210 12 18.27 -6.27 6.1% 5 12 16 18 21 24 34

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE HAM HOD LO MJO MJO ROS SAR SKE STR VIK
Brann —
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
1.92
2-0-0
2.91
1-0-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.74
1-0-1
2.41
0-1-1
2.25
0-2-0
1.90
0-0-2
1.40
Fredrikstad
2-0-0
3.46
 —
1-1-0
2.96
1-0-1
3.73
1-1-0
2.63
2-0-0
3.25
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
2.74
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.73
2-0-0
2.00
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
2.49
 —
0-1-1
3.43
1-1-0
2.34
0-2-0
3.19
0-0-2
3.05
1-1-0
2.18
0-1-1
2.97
2-0-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.41
0-0-2
1.94
Hodd
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
1.76
1-1-0
2.04
 —
0-1-1
2.02
1-1-0
2.46
0-0-2
2.55
1-1-0
1.67
0-1-1
2.21
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
1.38
Lyn Oslo
0-1-1
3.54
0-1-1
2.82
0-1-1
3.12
1-1-0
3.45
 —
1-1-0
3.55
0-1-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.33
2-0-0
2.92
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
2.42
0-0-2
2.10
Mjolner
0-0-2
2.55
0-0-2
2.23
0-2-0
2.27
0-1-1
3.00
0-1-1
1.92
 —
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
1.80
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.92
0-1-1
1.58
Mjondalen
1-0-1
3.20
0-0-2
2.26
2-0-0
2.41
2-0-0
2.91
1-1-0
2.46
1-0-1
3.01
 —
0-1-1
1.78
1-1-0
2.58
0-0-2
2.60
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.67
Rosenborg
1-1-0
3.73
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
3.28
0-1-1
3.81
1-1-0
3.13
1-1-0
3.67
1-1-0
3.69
 —
0-1-1
3.37
1-1-0
3.19
0-1-1
2.97
0-1-1
2.14
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
3.05
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
2.48
1-1-0
3.25
0-0-2
2.54
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.87
1-1-0
2.10
 —
1-1-0
2.71
0-1-1
2.26
0-0-2
1.92
Skeid
1-1-0
3.21
0-0-2
2.47
0-0-2
2.72
2-0-0
3.33
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
3.15
2-0-0
2.85
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.74
 —
0-2-0
2.00
1-0-1
1.64
Stromsgodset
0-2-0
3.57
2-0-0
2.73
0-1-1
3.05
2-0-0
3.50
0-0-2
3.04
2-0-0
3.55
1-0-1
3.58
1-1-0
2.49
1-1-0
3.21
0-2-0
3.46
 —
1-0-1
2.15
Viking
2-0-0
4.09
0-0-2
3.47
2-0-0
3.53
2-0-0
4.12
2-0-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.91
2-0-0
3.82
1-1-0
3.32
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.84
1-0-1
3.31
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +5.7
Allowed 0.48 -5.9
Differential 0.89 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.36%12.12%7.20%4.17%1.52%0.38%36.74%
112.12%10.61%4.17%3.41%1.52%0.76%32.58%
27.20%4.17%3.79%1.14%0.38%—16.67%
34.17%3.41%1.14%——0.38%9.09%
41.52%1.52%0.38%———3.41%
5+0.38%0.76%—0.38%——1.52%
Total36.74%32.58%16.67%9.09%3.41%1.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.16 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.27 1.86
CV 1.09 1.09 —
Max 9 9 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%9.09%———36.36%
113.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
39.09%—————9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%36.36%18.18%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.05 -0.05
SD 0.98 1.09 1.50
CV 0.98 1.04 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%————18.18%
140.91%—4.55%———45.45%
213.64%9.09%————22.73%
3—————4.55%4.55%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total68.18%22.73%4.55%——4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 0.73 +0.68
SD 1.14 1.93 1.91
CV 0.81 2.66 —
Max 4 9 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.27%13.64%9.09%4.55%——54.55%
113.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
29.09%—————9.09%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%27.27%13.64%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 0.82 -0.18
SD 0.85 1.01 1.37
CV 1.33 1.23 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—36.36%
19.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%13.64%—50.00%
2—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%22.73%13.64%18.18%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.77 -0.95
SD 0.80 1.51 1.62
CV 0.97 0.85 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.73%18.18%4.55%———45.45%
1—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
2—13.64%—9.09%——22.73%
39.09%—————9.09%
4———————
5+—9.09%————9.09%
Total31.82%50.00%4.55%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.00 +0.32
SD 1.59 0.98 1.76
CV 1.20 0.98 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%13.64%18.18%13.64%—4.55%68.18%
19.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%——22.73%
2——4.55%———4.55%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.82%18.18%27.27%18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.45 1.50 -1.05
SD 0.80 1.37 1.73
CV 1.76 0.91 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%—36.36%
1—4.55%4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
213.64%4.55%9.09%———27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%22.73%31.82%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.64 -0.23
SD 1.30 1.26 2.20
CV 0.92 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%9.09%———36.36%
19.09%18.18%4.55%———31.82%
213.64%—13.64%———27.27%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.91%31.82%27.27%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.86 +0.14
SD 0.93 0.83 1.28
CV 0.93 0.97 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%9.09%—45.45%
19.09%13.64%4.55%——4.55%31.82%
24.55%—4.55%———9.09%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%36.36%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.36 -0.41
SD 1.17 1.47 2.15
CV 1.23 1.07 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%18.18%4.55%——36.36%
118.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%—9.09%———13.64%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%27.27%31.82%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.18 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.01 1.93
CV 1.16 0.85 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
19.09%31.82%4.55%4.55%—4.55%54.55%
24.55%9.09%————13.64%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total22.73%50.00%9.09%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.32 +0.50
SD 1.89 1.25 2.18
CV 1.04 0.95 —
Max 9 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%————18.18%
113.64%4.55%—4.55%——22.73%
218.18%4.55%————22.73%
34.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
44.55%9.09%————13.64%
5+———————
Total45.45%45.45%4.55%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.68 +1.23
SD 1.34 0.78 1.54
CV 0.70 1.14 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 34 24.03 +9.97
2 Viking 34 28.81 +5.19
3 Stromsgodset 27 24.83 +2.17
4 Brann 20 17.96 +2.04
5 Mjondalen 21 19.86 +1.14

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mjolner 12 18.27 -6.27
2 Rosenborg 22 25.81 -3.81
3 Hodd 14 17.05 -3.05
4 Sarpsborg 18 20.78 -2.78
5 Lyn Oslo 21 23.45 -2.45

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredrikstad 6 Aug 28 – Oct 15 1 in 222
2 Viking 7 Jun 11 – Aug 14 1 in 82
3 Brann 3 Sep 10 – Oct 1 1 in 47
4 Lyn Oslo 3 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 33
5 Hodd 2 Jun 4 – Jun 11 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mjolner 5 Sep 10 – Oct 15 1 in 70
2 Mjondalen 5 May 25 – Jun 26 1 in 46
3 Viking 2 Sep 10 – Sep 21 1 in 31
4 Rosenborg 2 Jul 30 – Aug 9 1 in 21
5 Skeid 3 Aug 13 – Aug 28 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stromsgodset 11 Jun 4 – Sep 7 1 in 36
2 Brann 6 Aug 27 – Oct 15 1 in 33
3 Hodd 5 May 14 – Jun 11 1 in 19
4 Skeid 5 Sep 7 – Oct 15 1 in 16
5 Mjondalen 5 Jul 1 – Aug 17 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 9 Jun 5 – Aug 17 1 in 103
2 Stromsgodset 5 Sep 7 – Oct 15 1 in 24
3 Sarpsborg 8 Jun 29 – Sep 24 1 in 21
4 Rosenborg 4 Apr 23 – May 10 1 in 14
5 Hodd 7 Apr 23 – May 25 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Viking52.18%21.03%10.46%6.73%4.19%2.47%1.41%0.73%0.48%0.24%0.06%0.02%
Fredrikstad7.90%14.53%14.99%13.87%13.22%10.29%8.50%6.19%4.49%3.13%2.13%0.76%
Stromsgodset11.53%17.50%15.80%14.06%11.57%9.49%6.79%5.19%3.64%2.62%1.29%0.52%
Rosenborg15.17%19.48%18.26%13.71%10.37%8.25%5.56%4.09%2.36%1.57%0.81%0.37%
Lyn Oslo5.74%10.88%13.16%13.59%13.12%11.33%9.84%7.82%5.76%4.48%2.89%1.39%
Skeid1.89%4.46%6.67%8.56%9.97%11.72%12.05%11.91%10.61%9.69%7.41%5.06%
Mjondalen0.75%1.88%3.73%5.66%7.10%9.53%10.76%13.03%12.99%13.01%12.04%9.52%
Brann0.25%0.86%1.64%2.70%3.75%5.99%7.83%10.36%13.34%16.38%18.24%18.66%
Hamarkameratene2.95%5.16%8.05%9.83%11.10%11.50%12.09%11.43%10.09%7.90%6.01%3.89%
Sarpsborg1.28%3.09%5.02%7.00%9.18%10.40%11.92%12.62%12.06%11.06%9.48%6.89%
Hodd0.07%0.41%0.68%1.61%2.57%3.38%5.40%7.20%11.16%14.90%21.11%31.51%
Mjolner0.29%0.72%1.54%2.68%3.86%5.65%7.85%9.43%13.02%15.02%18.53%21.41%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.15%
Clear Edge
44.70%25.76%29.55%
Elo Value
Home Edge
140 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
053.05400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.59 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.38+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Viking, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.03 * Some Luck: 3.03 to 4.54 * Lucky: 4.54 to 6.05 * Wild Swing: 6.05 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.72 * Close: 1.72 to 2.59 * Off: 2.59 to 3.45 * Way Off: 3.45 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.25 points
Some Luck
03.789
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
02.155
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.73%
Fredrikstad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
6.10%
Mjolner
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.44
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.28
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.72
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.45
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.041
Well Within Noise
00.1370.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Viking 99.68% 0.32%
Rosenborg 97.25% 2.75%
Stromsgodset 95.57% 4.43%
Fredrikstad 93.98% 6.02%
Lyn Oslo 91.24% 8.76%
Hamarkameratene 82.20% 17.80%
Skeid 77.84% 22.16%
Sarpsborg 72.57% 27.43%
Mjondalen 65.43% 34.57%
Brann 46.72% 53.28%
Mjolner 45.04% 54.96%
Hodd 32.48% 67.52%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1972-04-23 Brann W 1-0 1366 1275 56.8% 26.4% 16.8% +5.0 2
1972-04-23 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1275 1366 16.8% 26.4% 56.8% -5.0 0
1972-04-23 Mjolner D 0-0 1355 1345 48.2% 27.1% 24.6% -1.3 1
1972-04-23 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1345 1355 24.6% 27.1% 48.2% +1.3 1
1972-04-23 Hodd W 2-0 1311 1294 49.1% 27.1% 23.8% +12.5 2
1972-04-23 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1294 1311 23.8% 27.1% 49.1% -12.5 0
1972-04-23 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1427 1364 54.0% 26.7% 19.3% -1.8 1
1972-04-23 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1364 1427 19.3% 26.7% 54.0% +1.8 1
1972-04-23 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1411 1332 55.7% 26.5% 17.8% +18.6 2
1972-04-23 @ Viking L 0-4 1332 1411 17.8% 26.5% 55.7% -18.6 0
1972-04-24 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1337 1363 43.7% 27.3% 29.0% -9.9 0
1972-04-24 @ Skeid W 2-1 1363 1337 29.0% 27.3% 43.7% +9.9 2
1972-04-27 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1366 1354 48.5% 27.1% 24.4% -11.5 1
1972-04-27 @ Stromsgodset W 1-0 1354 1366 24.4% 27.1% 48.5% +11.5 3
1972-04-28 Skeid L 0-1 1270 1327 39.5% 27.3% 33.1% -9.7 0
1972-04-28 @ Brann W 1-0 1327 1270 33.1% 27.3% 39.5% +9.7 2
1972-04-28 Viking L 2-3 1373 1430 39.5% 27.3% 33.2% -8.7 2
1972-04-28 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1430 1373 33.2% 27.3% 39.5% +8.7 4
1972-04-30 Rosenborg D 0-0 1281 1425 27.9% 26.9% 45.2% +1.0 1
1972-04-30 @ Hodd D 0-0 1425 1281 45.2% 26.9% 27.9% -1.0 2
1972-04-30 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1346 1371 43.8% 27.3% 28.9% -9.9 1
1972-04-30 @ Mjolner W 2-1 1371 1346 28.9% 27.3% 43.8% +9.9 4
1972-05-01 Mjondalen D 2-2 1313 1324 45.7% 27.2% 27.1% -0.7 1
1972-05-01 @ Sarpsborg D 2-2 1324 1313 27.1% 27.2% 45.7% +0.7 3
1972-05-05 Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1324 1364 41.9% 27.3% 30.8% +7.2 5
1972-05-05 @ Mjondalen L 2-3 1364 1324 30.8% 27.3% 41.9% -7.2 2
1972-05-07 Stromsgodset L 2-3 1282 1355 37.3% 27.3% 35.4% -8.3 1
1972-05-07 @ Hodd W 3-2 1355 1282 35.4% 27.3% 37.3% +8.3 3
1972-05-07 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1424 1313 58.7% 26.1% 15.2% -13.6 2
1972-05-07 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1313 1424 15.2% 26.1% 58.7% +13.7 3
1972-05-07 Mjolner W 5-0 1337 1336 47.1% 27.2% 25.7% +31.0 4
1972-05-07 @ Skeid L 0-5 1336 1337 25.7% 27.2% 47.1% -31.0 1
1972-05-07 Brann W 2-0 1439 1261 64.1% 24.9% 11.0% +6.3 6
1972-05-07 @ Viking L 0-2 1261 1439 11.0% 24.9% 64.1% -6.3 0
1972-05-08 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1381 1365 48.8% 27.1% 24.1% -1.4 5
1972-05-08 @ Fredrikstad D 0-0 1365 1381 24.1% 27.1% 48.8% +1.4 4
1972-05-10 Mjondalen W 3-0 1254 1332 36.7% 27.3% 36.0% +24.8 2
1972-05-10 @ Brann L 0-3 1332 1254 36.0% 27.3% 36.7% -24.8 5
1972-05-10 Rosenborg D 0-0 1357 1410 40.0% 27.3% 32.7% -0.4 3
1972-05-10 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1410 1357 32.7% 27.3% 40.0% +0.4 3
1972-05-10 Hodd W 4-0 1326 1274 53.0% 26.8% 20.2% +20.8 5
1972-05-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-4 1274 1326 20.2% 26.8% 53.0% -20.8 1
1972-05-11 Skeid W 2-0 1367 1368 46.8% 27.2% 26.0% +13.4 6
1972-05-11 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1368 1367 26.0% 27.2% 46.8% -13.4 4
1972-05-11 Viking L 0-1 1305 1445 28.3% 27.0% 44.7% -7.5 1
1972-05-11 @ Mjolner W 1-0 1445 1305 44.7% 27.0% 28.3% +7.5 8
1972-05-11 Fredrikstad W 9-3 1363 1379 44.9% 27.3% 27.8% +23.9 5
1972-05-11 @ Stromsgodset L 3-9 1379 1363 27.8% 27.3% 44.9% -23.9 5
1972-05-14 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1253 1356 33.1% 27.2% 39.7% +0.4 2
1972-05-14 @ Hodd D 0-0 1356 1253 39.7% 27.2% 33.1% -0.4 4
1972-05-14 Mjolner W 3-0 1307 1297 48.1% 27.1% 24.8% +18.7 7
1972-05-14 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1297 1307 24.8% 27.1% 48.1% -18.7 1
1972-05-15 Brann W 2-0 1411 1279 60.5% 25.8% 13.8% +7.9 5
1972-05-15 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1279 1411 13.8% 25.8% 60.5% -7.9 2
1972-05-15 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1347 1387 41.9% 27.3% 30.8% -0.5 6
1972-05-15 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1387 1347 30.8% 27.3% 41.9% +0.5 6
1972-05-15 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1355 1355 46.9% 27.2% 25.9% -11.1 4
1972-05-15 @ Skeid W 1-0 1355 1355 25.9% 27.2% 46.9% +11.1 7
1972-05-15 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1453 1380 55.0% 26.6% 18.4% +10.1 10
1972-05-15 @ Viking L 0-2 1380 1453 18.4% 26.6% 55.0% -10.1 6
1972-05-18 Sarpsborg W 5-1 1356 1347 48.1% 27.1% 24.8% +20.3 6
1972-05-18 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1347 1356 24.8% 27.1% 48.1% -20.4 6
1972-05-19 Skeid D 1-1 1388 1343 52.1% 26.9% 21.0% -1.6 7
1972-05-19 @ Stromsgodset D 1-1 1343 1388 21.0% 26.9% 52.1% +1.6 5
1972-05-22 Hodd D 1-1 1271 1254 49.1% 27.1% 23.8% -1.3 3
1972-05-22 @ Brann D 1-1 1254 1271 23.8% 27.1% 49.1% +1.3 3
1972-05-22 Viking W 1-0 1367 1463 34.0% 27.2% 38.7% +9.5 9
1972-05-22 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1463 1367 38.7% 27.2% 34.0% -9.5 10
1972-05-22 Mjondalen L 1-2 1370 1325 52.1% 26.9% 21.0% -11.5 6
1972-05-22 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-1 1325 1370 21.0% 26.9% 52.1% +11.5 9
1972-05-22 Rosenborg D 2-2 1279 1418 28.3% 27.0% 44.7% +0.6 2
1972-05-22 @ Mjolner D 2-2 1418 1279 44.7% 27.0% 28.3% -0.6 6
1972-05-25 Mjolner D 0-0 1255 1279 43.9% 27.3% 28.8% -0.8 4
1972-05-25 @ Hodd D 0-0 1279 1255 28.8% 27.3% 43.9% +0.8 3
1972-05-25 Stromsgodset W 5-1 1376 1386 45.8% 27.2% 27.0% +21.8 8
1972-05-25 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1386 1376 27.0% 27.2% 45.8% -21.8 7
1972-05-25 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1337 1376 41.9% 27.3% 30.7% -9.6 9
1972-05-25 @ Mjondalen W 2-1 1376 1337 30.7% 27.3% 41.9% +9.6 11
1972-05-25 Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1418 1358 53.7% 26.7% 19.6% -12.6 6
1972-05-25 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1358 1418 19.6% 26.7% 53.7% +12.6 8
1972-05-25 Brann W 1-0 1326 1270 53.4% 26.8% 19.8% +5.7 8
1972-05-25 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1270 1326 19.8% 26.8% 53.4% -5.7 3
1972-05-25 Skeid W 3-1 1453 1345 58.4% 26.1% 15.5% +7.5 12
1972-05-25 @ Viking L 1-3 1345 1453 15.5% 26.1% 58.4% -7.5 5
1972-06-03 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1280 1332 40.2% 27.3% 32.4% +8.4 5
1972-06-03 @ Mjolner L 0-1 1332 1280 32.4% 27.3% 40.2% -8.4 8
1972-06-04 Hodd L 0-1 1371 1254 59.2% 26.0% 14.8% -13.8 8
1972-06-04 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1254 1371 14.8% 26.0% 59.2% +13.8 6
1972-06-04 Viking W 3-1 1364 1461 34.0% 27.2% 38.8% +15.6 9
1972-06-04 @ Stromsgodset L 1-3 1461 1364 38.8% 27.2% 34.0% -15.6 12
1972-06-05 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1264 1398 29.0% 27.0% 43.9% +0.8 4
1972-06-05 @ Brann D 0-0 1398 1264 43.9% 27.0% 29.0% -0.8 9
1972-06-05 Rosenborg L 0-1 1386 1405 44.5% 27.3% 28.2% -10.7 11
1972-06-05 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1405 1386 28.2% 27.3% 44.5% +10.7 8
1972-06-05 Mjondalen W 2-0 1338 1327 48.2% 27.1% 24.7% +12.8 7
1972-06-05 @ Skeid L 0-2 1327 1338 24.7% 27.1% 48.2% -12.8 9
1972-06-11 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1268 1375 32.5% 27.2% 40.3% +9.3 8
1972-06-11 @ Hodd L 1-2 1375 1268 40.3% 27.2% 32.5% -9.3 11
1972-06-11 Viking L 1-4 1315 1445 29.5% 27.0% 43.5% -18.0 9
1972-06-11 @ Mjondalen W 4-1 1445 1315 43.5% 27.0% 29.5% +18.0 14
1972-06-12 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1265 1380 31.5% 27.1% 41.3% +0.5 5
1972-06-12 @ Brann D 1-1 1380 1265 41.3% 27.1% 31.5% -0.5 10
1972-06-12 Mjolner D 1-1 1397 1289 58.5% 26.1% 15.4% -2.3 10
1972-06-12 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1289 1397 15.4% 26.1% 58.5% +2.3 6
1972-06-12 Skeid W 2-0 1416 1350 54.3% 26.7% 19.0% +10.4 10
1972-06-12 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1350 1416 19.0% 26.7% 54.3% -10.4 7
1972-06-12 Hamarkameratene W 3-1 1324 1357 42.7% 27.3% 30.0% +12.9 10
1972-06-12 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1357 1324 30.0% 27.3% 42.7% -12.9 8
1972-06-18 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1344 1395 40.4% 27.3% 32.3% +8.4 10
1972-06-18 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-1 1395 1344 32.3% 27.3% 40.4% -8.4 10
1972-06-18 Brann L 0-1 1291 1265 50.0% 27.0% 23.0% -11.8 6
1972-06-18 @ Mjolner W 1-0 1265 1291 23.0% 27.0% 50.0% +11.8 7
1972-06-18 Hodd W 4-1 1340 1277 54.1% 26.7% 19.2% +12.8 9
1972-06-18 @ Skeid L 1-4 1277 1340 19.2% 26.7% 54.1% -12.9 8
1972-06-18 Mjondalen W 1-0 1379 1297 56.0% 26.5% 17.5% +5.1 12
1972-06-18 @ Stromsgodset L 0-1 1297 1379 17.5% 26.5% 56.0% -5.1 9
1972-06-19 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1366 1337 50.4% 27.0% 22.6% +6.4 13
1972-06-19 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1337 1366 22.6% 27.0% 50.4% -6.3 10
1972-06-19 Rosenborg W 2-0 1463 1426 51.3% 27.0% 21.8% +11.6 16
1972-06-19 @ Viking L 0-2 1426 1463 21.8% 27.0% 51.3% -11.6 10
1972-06-25 Viking L 1-3 1264 1475 20.6% 26.2% 53.2% -9.5 8
1972-06-25 @ Hodd W 3-1 1475 1264 53.2% 26.2% 20.6% +9.5 18
1972-06-25 Mjolner W 2-0 1384 1279 58.2% 26.2% 15.7% +8.8 14
1972-06-25 @ Stromsgodset L 0-2 1279 1384 15.7% 26.2% 58.2% -8.8 6
1972-06-26 Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1277 1353 36.9% 27.3% 35.8% +9.0 9
1972-06-26 @ Brann L 0-1 1353 1277 35.8% 27.3% 36.9% -9.0 10
1972-06-26 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1387 1372 48.7% 27.1% 24.2% -1.4 11
1972-06-26 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1372 1387 24.2% 27.1% 48.7% +1.4 14
1972-06-26 Mjondalen W 3-0 1415 1291 59.7% 25.9% 14.3% +11.8 12
1972-06-26 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1291 1415 14.3% 25.9% 59.7% -11.8 9
1972-06-26 Skeid W 3-0 1330 1353 44.1% 27.3% 28.6% +20.9 12
1972-06-26 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1353 1330 28.6% 27.3% 44.1% -20.9 9
1972-06-29 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1332 1351 44.6% 27.3% 28.2% -0.9 10
1972-06-29 @ Skeid D 0-0 1351 1332 28.2% 27.3% 44.6% +0.9 13
1972-07-01 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1374 1385 45.5% 27.2% 27.2% +13.9 16
1972-07-01 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1385 1374 27.2% 27.2% 45.5% -13.9 11
1972-07-01 Brann W 3-1 1344 1286 53.5% 26.8% 19.7% +9.3 12
1972-07-01 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-3 1286 1344 19.7% 26.8% 53.5% -9.3 9
1972-07-01 Stromsgodset L 0-3 1270 1393 30.4% 27.1% 42.5% -21.8 6
1972-07-01 @ Mjolner W 3-0 1393 1270 42.5% 27.1% 30.4% +21.8 16
1972-07-01 Rosenborg D 2-2 1280 1427 27.5% 26.9% 45.6% +0.7 10
1972-07-01 @ Mjondalen D 2-2 1427 1280 45.6% 26.9% 27.5% -0.7 13
1972-07-01 Hodd W 4-1 1484 1255 67.6% 23.9% 8.5% +6.1 20
1972-07-01 @ Viking L 1-4 1255 1484 8.5% 23.9% 67.6% -6.1 8
1972-07-30 Mjondalen L 1-3 1249 1280 42.9% 27.3% 29.8% -16.9 8
1972-07-30 @ Hodd W 3-1 1280 1249 29.8% 27.3% 42.9% +16.9 12
1972-07-30 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1248 1353 32.9% 27.2% 39.9% +0.4 7
1972-07-30 @ Mjolner D 0-0 1353 1248 39.9% 27.2% 32.9% -0.4 13
1972-07-30 Rosenborg W 2-1 1415 1426 45.6% 27.2% 27.1% +6.9 18
1972-07-30 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1426 1415 27.1% 27.2% 45.6% -6.9 13
1972-07-31 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1277 1387 32.1% 27.2% 40.7% -8.3 9
1972-07-31 @ Brann W 1-0 1387 1277 40.7% 27.2% 32.1% +8.3 18
1972-07-31 Skeid L 1-3 1371 1331 51.7% 26.9% 21.4% -19.8 11
1972-07-31 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1331 1371 21.4% 26.9% 51.7% +19.8 12
1972-07-31 Viking L 0-1 1352 1490 28.5% 27.0% 44.5% -7.6 13
1972-07-31 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1490 1352 44.5% 27.0% 28.5% +7.6 22
1972-08-06 Mjolner W 1-0 1396 1249 61.7% 25.5% 12.8% +3.9 20
1972-08-06 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1249 1396 12.8% 25.5% 61.7% -3.9 7
1972-08-07 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1498 1352 61.7% 25.5% 12.8% +3.9 24
1972-08-07 @ Viking L 0-1 1352 1498 12.8% 25.5% 61.7% -3.9 11
1972-08-09 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1353 1422 37.8% 27.3% 34.9% -0.1 14
1972-08-09 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1422 1353 34.9% 27.3% 37.8% +0.1 19
1972-08-09 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1297 1344 40.9% 27.3% 31.8% +15.6 14
1972-08-09 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1344 1297 31.8% 27.3% 40.9% -15.6 13
1972-08-09 Hodd L 0-1 1419 1232 64.7% 24.8% 10.5% -15.0 13
1972-08-09 @ Rosenborg W 1-0 1232 1419 10.5% 24.8% 64.7% +15.0 10
1972-08-09 Brann D 2-2 1351 1269 56.0% 26.5% 17.5% -1.5 13
1972-08-09 @ Skeid D 2-2 1269 1351 17.5% 26.5% 56.0% +1.5 10
1972-08-13 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1352 1400 40.9% 27.3% 31.8% -10.0 14
1972-08-13 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-0 1400 1352 31.8% 27.3% 40.9% +10.0 22
1972-08-13 Skeid W 1-0 1245 1349 32.9% 27.2% 39.9% +9.8 9
1972-08-13 @ Mjolner L 0-1 1349 1245 39.9% 27.2% 32.9% -9.8 13
1972-08-13 Rosenborg D 1-1 1329 1404 37.0% 27.3% 35.7% -0.1 14
1972-08-13 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1404 1329 35.7% 27.3% 37.0% +0.1 14
1972-08-13 Hodd W 2-1 1422 1247 63.9% 25.0% 11.1% +3.2 21
1972-08-13 @ Stromsgodset L 1-2 1247 1422 11.1% 25.0% 63.9% -3.2 10
1972-08-14 Viking L 1-2 1270 1502 18.7% 25.9% 55.5% -5.1 10
1972-08-14 @ Brann W 2-1 1502 1270 55.5% 25.9% 18.7% +5.0 26
1972-08-14 Mjondalen D 1-1 1348 1313 51.0% 27.0% 22.0% -1.5 12
1972-08-14 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1313 1348 22.0% 27.0% 51.0% +1.5 15
1972-08-16 Stromsgodset L 0-1 1410 1425 45.0% 27.3% 27.8% -10.8 22
1972-08-16 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1425 1410 27.8% 27.3% 45.0% +10.8 23
1972-08-16 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1243 1329 35.5% 27.3% 37.2% +0.1 11
1972-08-16 @ Hodd D 1-1 1329 1243 37.2% 27.3% 35.5% -0.1 15
1972-08-16 Hamarkameratene L 0-2 1340 1343 46.6% 27.2% 26.2% -20.9 13
1972-08-16 @ Skeid W 2-0 1343 1340 26.2% 27.2% 46.6% +20.9 16
1972-08-17 Brann W 4-2 1314 1265 52.6% 26.8% 20.5% +8.6 17
1972-08-17 @ Mjondalen L 2-4 1265 1314 20.5% 26.8% 52.6% -8.6 10
1972-08-17 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1404 1346 53.5% 26.8% 19.7% +5.7 16
1972-08-17 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1346 1404 19.7% 26.8% 53.5% -5.7 12
1972-08-17 Mjolner D 0-0 1507 1255 69.0% 23.4% 7.7% -3.9 27
1972-08-17 @ Viking D 0-0 1255 1507 7.7% 23.4% 69.0% +3.9 10
1972-08-27 Rosenborg D 0-0 1256 1410 26.7% 26.9% 46.4% +1.1 11
1972-08-27 @ Brann D 0-0 1410 1256 46.4% 26.9% 26.7% -1.1 17
1972-08-27 Viking L 0-3 1363 1503 28.4% 27.0% 44.6% -20.7 16
1972-08-27 @ Hamarkameratene W 3-0 1503 1363 44.6% 27.0% 28.4% +20.7 29
1972-08-27 Hodd W 3-0 1340 1244 57.4% 26.3% 16.3% +13.2 14
1972-08-27 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-3 1244 1340 16.3% 26.3% 57.4% -13.2 11
1972-08-27 Mjondalen W 3-0 1259 1323 38.5% 27.3% 34.2% +23.8 12
1972-08-27 @ Mjolner L 0-3 1323 1259 34.2% 27.3% 38.5% -23.8 17
1972-08-27 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1436 1329 58.4% 26.1% 15.5% +16.6 25
1972-08-27 @ Stromsgodset L 0-4 1329 1436 15.5% 26.1% 58.4% -16.6 15
1972-08-28 Skeid W 2-0 1399 1319 55.8% 26.5% 17.7% +9.8 24
1972-08-28 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1319 1399 17.7% 26.5% 55.8% -9.8 13
1972-09-07 Stromsgodset D 1-1 1309 1453 27.8% 26.9% 45.2% +0.9 14
1972-09-07 @ Skeid D 1-1 1453 1309 45.2% 26.9% 27.8% -0.9 26
1972-09-10 Brann L 1-2 1230 1258 43.5% 27.3% 29.2% -9.9 11
1972-09-10 @ Hodd W 2-1 1258 1230 29.2% 27.3% 43.5% +9.9 13
1972-09-10 Hamarkameratene W 2-0 1299 1343 41.3% 27.3% 31.3% +15.4 19
1972-09-10 @ Mjondalen L 0-2 1343 1299 31.3% 27.3% 41.3% -15.4 16
1972-09-10 Mjolner W 2-0 1409 1282 60.0% 25.9% 14.1% +8.0 19
1972-09-10 @ Rosenborg L 0-2 1282 1409 14.1% 25.9% 60.0% -8.0 12
1972-09-10 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1312 1354 41.6% 27.3% 31.1% -9.5 15
1972-09-10 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1354 1312 31.1% 27.3% 41.6% +9.5 16
1972-09-10 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1524 1409 59.0% 26.0% 14.9% -13.7 29
1972-09-10 @ Viking W 1-0 1409 1524 14.9% 26.0% 59.0% +13.7 26
1972-09-21 Mjondalen W 4-0 1422 1314 58.4% 26.1% 15.5% +16.5 28
1972-09-21 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1314 1422 15.5% 26.1% 58.4% -16.5 19
1972-09-21 Viking W 1-0 1310 1510 21.6% 26.3% 52.0% +12.2 16
1972-09-21 @ Skeid L 0-1 1510 1310 52.0% 26.3% 21.6% -12.1 29
1972-09-24 Sarpsborg W 3-0 1267 1303 42.5% 27.3% 30.2% +21.8 15
1972-09-24 @ Brann L 0-3 1303 1267 30.2% 27.3% 42.5% -21.8 15
1972-09-24 Rosenborg D 1-1 1327 1417 35.0% 27.3% 37.8% +0.1 17
1972-09-24 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-1 1417 1327 37.8% 27.3% 35.0% -0.1 20
1972-09-24 Hodd L 1-3 1274 1220 53.1% 26.8% 20.1% -20.3 12
1972-09-24 @ Mjolner W 3-1 1220 1274 20.1% 26.8% 53.1% +20.3 13
1972-09-24 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1452 1363 56.6% 26.4% 17.0% -12.4 26
1972-09-24 @ Stromsgodset W 2-1 1363 1452 17.0% 26.4% 56.6% +12.5 18
1972-10-01 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1241 1327 35.3% 27.3% 37.4% +0.1 14
1972-10-01 @ Hodd D 0-0 1327 1241 37.4% 27.3% 35.3% -0.1 18
1972-10-01 Brann L 0-1 1376 1289 56.4% 26.4% 17.2% -13.2 18
1972-10-01 @ Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1289 1376 17.2% 26.4% 56.4% +13.2 17
1972-10-01 Skeid L 0-1 1298 1322 44.0% 27.3% 28.8% -10.6 19
1972-10-01 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1322 1298 28.8% 27.3% 44.0% +10.5 18
1972-10-01 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1417 1439 44.2% 27.3% 28.5% -20.0 20
1972-10-01 @ Rosenborg W 2-0 1439 1417 28.5% 27.3% 44.2% +20.0 30
1972-10-01 Mjolner W 2-0 1281 1254 50.1% 27.0% 22.8% +12.1 17
1972-10-01 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1254 1281 22.8% 27.0% 50.1% -12.1 12
1972-10-01 Stromsgodset W 3-1 1498 1439 53.6% 26.8% 19.7% +9.3 31
1972-10-01 @ Viking L 1-3 1439 1498 19.7% 26.8% 53.6% -9.3 26
1972-10-08 Hodd W 4-1 1459 1241 66.8% 24.1% 9.0% +6.4 32
1972-10-08 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1241 1459 9.0% 24.1% 66.8% -6.4 14
1972-10-08 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1327 1293 51.0% 27.0% 22.0% -1.7 19
1972-10-08 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1293 1327 22.0% 27.0% 51.0% +1.7 18
1972-10-08 Lyn Oslo L 0-3 1242 1363 30.8% 27.1% 42.1% -22.0 12
1972-10-08 @ Mjolner W 3-0 1363 1242 42.1% 27.1% 30.8% +22.0 20
1972-10-08 Rosenborg D 2-2 1332 1397 38.5% 27.3% 34.2% -0.2 19
1972-10-08 @ Skeid D 2-2 1397 1332 34.2% 27.3% 38.5% +0.2 21
1972-10-08 Brann D 1-1 1430 1302 60.1% 25.8% 14.0% -2.5 27
1972-10-08 @ Stromsgodset D 1-1 1302 1430 14.0% 25.8% 60.1% +2.5 18
1972-10-08 Mjondalen W 2-0 1507 1287 67.0% 24.1% 9.0% +5.2 33
1972-10-08 @ Viking L 0-2 1287 1507 9.0% 24.1% 67.0% -5.2 19
1972-10-15 Mjolner W 2-0 1305 1220 56.2% 26.4% 17.3% +9.6 20
1972-10-15 @ Brann L 0-2 1220 1305 17.3% 26.4% 56.2% -9.6 12
1972-10-15 Skeid L 0-1 1234 1332 33.8% 27.2% 39.0% -8.6 14
1972-10-15 @ Hodd W 1-0 1332 1234 39.0% 27.2% 33.8% +8.6 21
1972-10-15 Hamarkameratene D 0-0 1385 1326 53.6% 26.7% 19.6% -2.0 21
1972-10-15 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1326 1385 19.6% 26.7% 53.6% +2.0 20
1972-10-15 Stromsgodset W 3-0 1282 1428 27.6% 26.9% 45.4% +29.6 21
1972-10-15 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1428 1282 45.4% 26.9% 27.6% -29.6 27
1972-10-15 Viking D 1-1 1397 1512 31.4% 27.1% 41.4% +0.5 22
1972-10-15 @ Rosenborg D 1-1 1512 1397 41.4% 27.1% 31.4% -0.5 34
1972-10-15 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1295 1465 24.7% 26.7% 48.6% -6.8 18
1972-10-15 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1465 1295 48.6% 26.7% 24.7% +6.8 34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1972-08-09 10.49% Hodd 1232 1 @ Rosenborg 1419 0
2 1972-06-04 14.79% Hodd 1254 1 @ Hamarkameratene 1371 0
3 1972-09-10 14.94% Fredrikstad 1409 1 @ Viking 1524 0
4 1972-05-07 15.23% Sarpsborg 1313 1 @ Rosenborg 1424 0
5 1972-09-24 16.99% Lyn Oslo 1363 2 @ Stromsgodset 1452 1
6 1972-10-01 17.17% Brann 1289 1 @ Lyn Oslo 1376 0
7 1972-05-25 19.57% Hamarkameratene 1358 1 @ Rosenborg 1418 0
8 1972-09-24 20.07% Hodd 1220 3 @ Mjolner 1274 1
9 1972-05-22 21.00% Mjondalen 1325 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1370 1
10 1972-07-31 21.43% Skeid 1331 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1371 1
11 1972-09-21 21.62% @ Skeid 1310 1 Viking 1510 0
12 1972-06-18 22.97% Brann 1265 1 @ Mjolner 1291 0
13 1972-04-27 24.41% Hamarkameratene 1354 1 @ Stromsgodset 1366 0
14 1972-05-15 25.94% Fredrikstad 1355 1 @ Skeid 1355 0
15 1972-08-16 26.19% Hamarkameratene 1343 2 @ Skeid 1340 0
16 1972-10-15 27.64% @ Mjondalen 1282 3 Stromsgodset 1428 0
17 1972-08-16 27.75% Stromsgodset 1425 1 @ Fredrikstad 1410 0
18 1972-06-05 28.21% Rosenborg 1405 1 @ Fredrikstad 1386 0
19 1972-10-01 28.55% Fredrikstad 1439 2 @ Rosenborg 1417 0
20 1972-10-01 28.77% Skeid 1322 1 @ Mjondalen 1298 0
21 1972-04-30 28.88% Fredrikstad 1371 2 @ Mjolner 1346 1
22 1972-04-24 28.97% Lyn Oslo 1363 2 @ Skeid 1337 1
23 1972-09-10 29.19% Brann 1258 2 @ Hodd 1230 1
24 1972-07-30 29.76% Mjondalen 1280 3 @ Hodd 1249 1
25 1972-05-25 30.73% Fredrikstad 1376 2 @ Mjondalen 1337 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1972-05-07 31.02 @ Skeid 5 1337 47.08% Mjolner 0 1336 25.73% 27.19%
2 1972-10-15 29.61 @ Mjondalen 3 1282 27.64% Stromsgodset 0 1428 45.44% 26.92%
3 1972-05-10 24.79 @ Brann 3 1254 36.67% Mjondalen 0 1332 36.04% 27.30%
4 1972-05-11 23.94 @ Stromsgodset 9 1363 44.94% Fredrikstad 3 1379 27.80% 27.26%
5 1972-08-27 23.84 @ Mjolner 3 1259 38.52% Mjondalen 0 1323 34.16% 27.32%
6 1972-10-08 22.02 Lyn Oslo 3 1363 42.12% @ Mjolner 0 1242 30.77% 27.11%
7 1972-07-01 21.84 Stromsgodset 3 1393 42.46% @ Mjolner 0 1270 30.45% 27.09%
8 1972-09-24 21.77 @ Brann 3 1267 42.48% Sarpsborg 0 1303 30.21% 27.31%
9 1972-05-25 21.76 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1376 45.77% Stromsgodset 1 1386 26.99% 27.24%
10 1972-08-16 20.90 Hamarkameratene 2 1343 26.19% @ Skeid 0 1340 46.61% 27.21%
11 1972-06-26 20.89 @ Sarpsborg 3 1330 44.12% Skeid 0 1353 28.60% 27.28%
12 1972-05-10 20.76 @ Sarpsborg 4 1326 52.97% Hodd 0 1274 20.22% 26.80%
13 1972-08-27 20.69 Viking 3 1503 44.65% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1363 28.37% 26.97%
14 1972-05-18 20.35 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1356 48.10% Sarpsborg 1 1347 24.76% 27.14%
15 1972-09-24 20.32 Hodd 3 1220 20.07% @ Mjolner 1 1274 53.14% 26.79%
16 1972-10-01 19.97 Fredrikstad 2 1439 28.55% @ Rosenborg 0 1417 44.17% 27.28%
17 1972-07-31 19.81 Skeid 3 1331 21.43% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1371 51.66% 26.92%
18 1972-05-14 18.70 @ Mjondalen 3 1307 48.10% Mjolner 0 1297 24.76% 27.14%
19 1972-04-23 18.65 @ Viking 4 1411 55.70% Sarpsborg 0 1332 17.78% 26.51%
20 1972-06-11 17.97 Viking 4 1445 43.46% @ Mjondalen 1 1315 29.50% 27.04%
21 1972-07-30 16.91 Mjondalen 3 1280 29.76% @ Hodd 1 1249 42.93% 27.30%
22 1972-08-27 16.56 @ Stromsgodset 4 1436 58.36% Sarpsborg 0 1329 15.50% 26.14%
23 1972-09-21 16.54 @ Fredrikstad 4 1422 58.39% Mjondalen 0 1314 15.48% 26.14%
24 1972-06-04 15.59 @ Stromsgodset 3 1364 34.00% Viking 1 1461 38.77% 27.24%
25 1972-08-09 15.58 @ Mjondalen 2 1297 40.87% Sarpsborg 0 1344 31.81% 27.32%