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1959-60 Main League Season

112 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fredrikstad

5.60 points above expected

23 points · 17.40 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Start

7.61 points below expected

5 points · 12.61 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 10 3 1 23 41 16 +25 17.40 +5.60
2 Lillestrom 14 8 3 3 19 28 21 +7 13.71 +5.29
3 Valerenga 14 8 2 4 18 27 21 +6 15.93 +2.07
4 Eik Tonsberg 14 8 1 5 17 30 21 +9 15.32 +1.68
5 Skeid 14 7 3 4 17 30 23 +7 15.59 +1.41
6 Viking 14 6 4 4 16 25 18 +7 15.82 +0.18
7 Larvik Turn 14 7 1 6 15 32 22 +10 15.99 -0.99
8 Rapid Moss 14 6 3 5 15 21 26 -5 11.82 +3.18
9 Greaker 14 5 4 5 14 25 20 +5 12.53 +1.47
10 Sandefjord 14 5 4 5 14 16 18 -2 13.33 +0.67
11 IF Odd 14 5 3 6 13 25 25 0 14.38 -1.38
12 Strommen 14 5 3 6 13 23 27 -4 14.17 -1.17
13 Brann 14 4 3 7 11 19 29 -10 12.08 -1.08
14 Raufoss 14 2 4 8 8 20 36 -16 10.93 -2.93
15 Brage 14 1 4 9 6 14 30 -16 12.38 -6.38
16 Start 14 1 3 10 5 15 38 -23 12.61 -7.61

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fredrikstad 6
Lillestrom 2

Sim: 2.0%

Eik Tonsberg 4
Valerenga 2

Sim: 2.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1319 23 17.40 +5.60 98.1% 6 12 15 17 19 22 27
Skeid 1187 17 15.59 +1.41 72.6% 4 10 13 16 18 21 26
Eik Tonsberg 1185 17 15.32 +1.68 75.1% 3 10 13 15 17 20 25
Lillestrom 1182 19 13.71 +5.29 96.4% 2 8 12 14 16 19 25
Larvik Turn 1180 15 15.99 -0.99 43.6% 4 11 14 16 18 21 26
Viking 1171 16 15.82 +0.18 58.5% 3 11 14 16 18 21 26
Greaker 1159 14 12.53 +1.47 73.0% 0 7 10 12 15 18 24
Valerenga 1153 18 15.93 +2.07 78.2% 4 11 14 16 18 21 27
IF Odd 1134 13 14.38 -1.38 39.5% 3 9 12 14 17 20 25
Strommen 1126 13 14.17 -1.17 41.5% 3 9 12 14 16 19 26
Rapid Moss 1116 15 11.82 +3.18 87.6% 1 7 10 12 14 17 25
Sandefjord 1103 14 13.33 +0.67 64.3% 0 8 11 13 15 19 25
Brann 1059 11 12.08 -1.08 43.0% 1 7 10 12 14 17 25
Raufoss 1042 8 10.93 -2.93 22.4% 0 6 9 11 13 16 23
Brage 1035 6 12.38 -6.38 2.7% 2 7 10 12 15 18 23
Start 1004 5 12.61 -7.61 1.1% 1 7 10 13 15 18 24

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA BRA ET FRE GRE IO LT LIL RM RAU SAN SKE STA STR VAL VIK
Brage —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.23
0-1-1
2.24
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.25
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.77
0-1-1
3.11
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Brann
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.93
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.82
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.66
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.59
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.35
0-2-0
1.66
Eik Tonsberg
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.94
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.62
1-0-1
3.73
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Fredrikstad
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.21
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.56
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.72
1-1-0
4.08
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.30
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.37
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Greaker
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.17
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.80
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
2.16
IF Odd
1-1-0
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.62
0-1-1
2.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.24
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.63
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Larvik Turn
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.74
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.39
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.25
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.45
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.66
0-0-2
2.84
Lillestrom
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.04
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.47
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.40
2-0-0
2.39
Rapid Moss
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.94
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.22
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Raufoss
1-1-0
2.44
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.83
0-1-1
1.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.63
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.82
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.90
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
2.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.98
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.42
1-1-0
2.26
Skeid
1-0-1
3.50
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
3.74
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Start
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.12
0-2-0
2.53
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.87
0-0-2
2.53
Strommen
1-1-0
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.80
0-0-2
2.19
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.34
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.34
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Valerenga
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.46
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.16
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.69
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
2.80
Viking
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.90
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.39
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.71
0-0-2
3.16
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.29
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.75
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +5.7
Allowed 0.75 -6.5
Differential 0.90 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%5.80%1.79%3.57%3.12%1.34%19.20%
15.80%12.50%8.04%2.68%4.46%2.68%36.16%
21.79%8.04%3.57%2.68%0.89%1.34%18.30%
33.57%2.68%2.68%0.89%0.45%0.45%10.71%
43.12%4.46%0.89%0.45%0.89%—9.82%
5+1.34%2.68%1.34%0.45%——5.80%
Total19.20%36.16%18.30%10.71%9.82%5.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.75 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.31
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%—7.14%7.14%—28.57%
17.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%—50.00%
2——14.29%———14.29%
3————7.14%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%28.57%28.57%14.29%21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.14 -1.14
SD 0.88 1.29 1.41
CV 0.88 0.60 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%—14.29%—7.14%35.71%
17.14%14.29%7.14%———28.57%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3—————7.14%7.14%
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+———————
Total7.14%50.00%14.29%14.29%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.07 -0.71
SD 1.45 1.90 2.58
CV 1.07 0.92 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%—14.29%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
2—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
3———————
4—21.43%————21.43%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total7.14%57.14%21.43%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.50 +0.64
SD 1.51 1.02 2.10
CV 0.71 0.68 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
17.14%21.43%———7.14%35.71%
2———————
37.14%—7.14%———14.29%
421.43%14.29%————35.71%
5+——14.29%———14.29%
Total35.71%35.71%21.43%——7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.93 1.14 +1.79
SD 1.59 1.35 2.26
CV 0.54 1.18 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
1—21.43%—14.29%——35.71%
2—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
37.14%—7.14%———14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total21.43%42.86%14.29%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.43 +0.36
SD 1.67 1.22 2.27
CV 0.94 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%21.43%7.14%——7.14%42.86%
2—7.14%—7.14%7.14%7.14%28.57%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total21.43%42.86%7.14%7.14%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.79 +0.00
SD 1.25 1.76 2.35
CV 0.70 0.99 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
1—7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%—28.57%
27.14%7.14%—14.29%——28.57%
314.29%—————14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total28.57%21.43%21.43%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.57 +0.71
SD 1.54 1.34 2.43
CV 0.67 0.85 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——14.29%——21.43%
17.14%14.29%————21.43%
27.14%14.29%———7.14%28.57%
3———————
47.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
5+———7.14%——7.14%
Total28.57%35.71%7.14%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.50 +0.50
SD 1.66 1.51 2.21
CV 0.83 1.00 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————7.14%7.14%14.29%
17.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%—35.71%
2—21.43%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%42.86%14.29%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.86 -0.36
SD 0.94 1.56 2.27
CV 0.63 0.84 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%7.14%—21.43%
1—14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%42.86%
2—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
3———————
4—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
5+———————
Total—35.71%14.29%21.43%21.43%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 2.57 -1.14
SD 1.28 1.55 2.11
CV 0.90 0.60 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—7.14%7.14%——28.57%
114.29%7.14%14.29%—7.14%—42.86%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
3———————
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total35.71%21.43%28.57%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.29 -0.14
SD 1.10 1.27 1.75
CV 0.96 0.99 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%——7.14%—21.43%
17.14%7.14%7.14%—7.14%—28.57%
2—14.29%————14.29%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
5+—14.29%————14.29%
Total14.29%50.00%14.29%—21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.64 +0.50
SD 1.96 1.39 2.41
CV 0.91 0.85 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
1—7.14%14.29%—14.29%14.29%50.00%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%21.43%21.43%14.29%14.29%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 2.71 -1.64
SD 1.00 1.68 1.95
CV 0.93 0.62 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
17.14%7.14%14.29%—7.14%—35.71%
2——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
3——14.29%———14.29%
47.14%——7.14%——14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%35.71%14.29%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.93 -0.29
SD 1.39 1.49 1.94
CV 0.85 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————14.29%—14.29%
114.29%7.14%7.14%——7.14%35.71%
27.14%14.29%————21.43%
314.29%——7.14%——21.43%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%21.43%7.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.50 +0.43
SD 1.77 1.79 3.06
CV 0.92 1.19 —
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%——7.14%—28.57%
1—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
2———————
3—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total14.29%57.14%21.43%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.29 +0.50
SD 1.67 0.99 2.10
CV 0.94 0.77 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 23 17.40 +5.60
2 Lillestrom 19 13.71 +5.29
3 Rapid Moss 15 11.82 +3.18
4 Valerenga 18 15.93 +2.07
5 Eik Tonsberg 17 15.32 +1.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Start 5 12.61 -7.61
2 Brage 6 12.38 -6.38
3 Raufoss 8 10.93 -2.93
4 IF Odd 13 14.38 -1.38
5 Strommen 13 14.17 -1.17

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rapid Moss 3 Oct 4 – May 1 1 in 47
2 Fredrikstad 5 Jul 26 – Sep 6 1 in 38
3 Lillestrom 3 Sep 6 – Oct 11 1 in 31
4 Valerenga 4 Aug 16 – Sep 27 1 in 30
5 Eik Tonsberg 4 Oct 4 – May 8 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Eik Tonsberg 4 May 15 – Jun 12 1 in 123
2 Raufoss 6 Sep 6 – May 8 1 in 64
3 Brann 4 Aug 23 – Oct 11 1 in 51
4 Start 4 May 15 – Jun 12 1 in 16
5 Strommen 3 Oct 11 – May 1 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raufoss 4 May 15 – Jun 12 1 in 33
2 Lillestrom 6 Sep 6 – May 8 1 in 20
3 Rapid Moss 4 Sep 27 – May 1 1 in 14
4 Greaker 4 Oct 11 – May 8 1 in 14
5 IF Odd 5 Aug 23 – Oct 25 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brage 11 Aug 23 – Jun 12 1 in 89
2 Start 9 Sep 27 – Jun 12 1 in 25
3 Raufoss 9 Sep 6 – May 29 1 in 13
4 Eik Tonsberg 4 May 15 – Jun 12 1 in 13
5 Fredrikstad 3 Sep 27 – Oct 11 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad42.61%22.29%14.13%9.38%5.52%3.35%1.90%0.82%
Lillestrom8.96%11.81%13.64%14.16%14.83%14.26%12.32%10.02%
Valerenga25.27%18.86%15.86%13.15%9.89%7.75%5.96%3.26%
Eik Tonsberg16.02%19.12%18.29%15.57%12.53%8.89%6.42%3.16%
Skeid17.88%19.79%18.80%14.44%12.47%8.68%5.38%2.56%
Viking23.01%19.79%16.69%14.03%10.17%7.90%5.22%3.19%
Larvik Turn26.24%20.50%16.50%12.67%9.32%6.99%5.25%2.53%
Rapid Moss2.08%4.64%6.89%10.35%14.06%17.99%21.88%22.11%
Greaker4.63%7.98%9.80%11.74%13.97%16.02%17.76%18.10%
Sandefjord5.86%9.20%11.72%13.92%15.06%15.10%15.16%13.98%
IF Odd9.73%13.87%15.47%15.85%15.21%13.13%10.32%6.42%
Strommen7.87%12.20%14.39%16.64%15.84%14.85%10.75%7.46%
Brann2.47%5.39%7.38%9.18%13.34%16.62%19.86%25.76%
Raufoss1.24%2.37%4.34%7.03%10.24%15.63%22.33%36.82%
Brage2.57%5.72%7.69%10.74%14.13%17.48%21.02%20.65%
Start3.56%6.47%8.41%11.15%13.42%15.36%18.47%23.16%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.93%
Slight Edge
43.75%21.43%34.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 31.10 Elo pts.
121 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.53 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.7
Wide Open
124612
Champion Preseason Odds
43%
Fredrikstad, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.54 * Some Luck: 2.54 to 3.82 * Lucky: 3.82 to 5.09 * Wild Swing: 5.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.91 * Close: 2.91 to 4.36 * Off: 4.36 to 5.81 * Way Off: 5.81 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.48 points
Some Luck
03.188
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.75
Pinpoint
03.638
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
98.12%
Fredrikstad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.14%
Start
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.27
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
62%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Strong Edge
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.26
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.44
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.13
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.060
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
Lillestrom — —
Larvik Turn 65.98% 7.78%
Skeid 74.18% 7.94%
Viking 68.58% 8.41%
Valerenga 65.51% 9.22%
Eik Tonsberg 74.40% 9.58%
IF Odd 73.53% 16.74%
Strommen 73.92% 18.21%
Sandefjord 65.00% 29.14%
Greaker 59.51% 35.86%
Start 54.81% 41.63%
Brage 55.76% 41.67%
Rapid Moss 53.93% 43.99%
Brann 51.91% 45.62%
Raufoss 39.61% 59.15%
Loser →
↓ Winner
BrageBrannEik TonsbergFredrikstadGreakerIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromRapid MossRaufossSandefjordSkeidStartStrommenValerengaViking
Brage0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Brann0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Eik Tonsberg100.0%1.00%80.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%50.0%4.00%
Fredrikstad100.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%75.0%12.00%50.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%12.00%68.8%16.00%
Greaker25.0%4.00%
IF Odd100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Larvik Turn100.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%25.0%12.00%33.3%3.00%66.7%3.00%50.0%2.00%
Lillestrom0.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Rapid Moss100.0%1.00%
Raufoss33.3%3.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Sandefjord50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Skeid0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%
Start0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Strommen0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%
Valerenga33.3%3.00%50.0%12.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%2.00%
Viking100.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%31.2%16.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 66.84%
Lillestrom 33.16%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadLillestrom
Fredrikstad66.8%100.00%
Lillestrom33.2%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1959-07-26 Fredrikstad L 0-4 1147 1172 43.0% 22.3% 34.6% -36.2 0
1959-07-26 @ Brage W 4-0 1172 1147 34.6% 22.3% 43.0% +36.1 2
1959-07-26 Larvik Turn W 3-2 1102 1148 40.1% 22.3% 37.6% +8.1 2
1959-07-26 @ Greaker L 2-3 1148 1102 37.6% 22.3% 40.1% -8.1 0
1959-07-26 Raufoss W 3-0 1128 1122 47.2% 22.3% 30.5% +21.1 2
1959-07-26 @ IF Odd L 0-3 1122 1128 30.5% 22.3% 47.2% -21.1 0
1959-07-26 Skeid L 1-2 1117 1157 40.9% 22.3% 36.8% -9.1 0
1959-07-26 @ Rapid Moss W 2-1 1157 1117 36.8% 22.3% 40.9% +9.1 2
1959-07-26 Brann D 2-2 1111 1102 47.6% 22.3% 30.1% -0.7 1
1959-07-26 @ Sandefjord D 2-2 1102 1111 30.1% 22.3% 47.6% +0.7 1
1959-07-26 Viking L 2-3 1147 1152 45.8% 22.3% 31.9% -9.5 0
1959-07-26 @ Start W 3-2 1152 1147 31.9% 22.3% 45.8% +9.5 2
1959-07-26 Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1151 1129 49.2% 22.2% 28.5% -10.7 0
1959-07-26 @ Strommen W 2-1 1129 1151 28.5% 22.2% 49.2% +10.7 2
1959-07-26 Lillestrom W 3-0 1152 1123 50.2% 22.2% 27.6% +19.4 2
1959-07-26 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1123 1152 27.6% 22.2% 50.2% -19.4 0
1959-08-02 Start W 2-1 1102 1137 41.6% 22.3% 36.0% +8.3 3
1959-08-02 @ Brann L 1-2 1137 1102 36.0% 22.3% 41.6% -8.3 0
1959-08-02 Brage W 2-1 1140 1111 50.1% 22.2% 27.7% +6.7 4
1959-08-02 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1111 1140 27.7% 22.2% 50.1% -6.7 0
1959-08-02 Strommen W 5-2 1208 1140 54.7% 22.1% 23.2% +12.3 4
1959-08-02 @ Fredrikstad L 2-5 1140 1208 23.2% 22.1% 54.7% -12.3 0
1959-08-02 Valerenga W 4-0 1140 1172 42.1% 22.3% 35.5% +31.1 2
1959-08-02 @ Larvik Turn L 0-4 1172 1140 35.5% 22.3% 42.1% -31.1 2
1959-08-02 Greaker W 4-2 1104 1110 45.6% 22.3% 32.1% +11.7 2
1959-08-02 @ Lillestrom L 2-4 1110 1104 32.1% 22.3% 45.6% -11.7 2
1959-08-02 Rapid Moss D 1-1 1101 1107 45.5% 22.3% 32.2% -0.7 1
1959-08-02 @ Raufoss D 1-1 1107 1101 32.2% 22.3% 45.5% +0.7 1
1959-08-02 IF Odd W 4-2 1166 1149 48.7% 22.2% 29.1% +10.8 4
1959-08-02 @ Skeid L 2-4 1149 1166 29.1% 22.2% 48.7% -10.8 2
1959-08-02 Sandefjord D 0-0 1161 1110 52.8% 22.1% 25.1% -1.6 3
1959-08-02 @ Viking D 0-0 1110 1161 25.1% 22.1% 52.8% +1.6 2
1959-08-16 Skeid W 1-0 1104 1177 36.3% 22.3% 41.4% +9.8 2
1959-08-16 @ Brage L 0-1 1177 1104 41.4% 22.3% 36.3% -9.8 4
1959-08-16 Brann L 0-1 1098 1110 44.8% 22.3% 32.9% -10.5 2
1959-08-16 @ Greaker W 1-0 1110 1098 32.9% 22.3% 44.8% +10.5 5
1959-08-16 Eik Tonsberg L 0-1 1138 1146 45.3% 22.3% 32.4% -10.6 2
1959-08-16 @ IF Odd W 1-0 1146 1138 32.4% 22.3% 45.3% +10.6 6
1959-08-16 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1108 1221 31.0% 22.2% 46.8% -18.0 1
1959-08-16 @ Rapid Moss W 4-1 1221 1108 46.8% 22.2% 31.0% +18.0 6
1959-08-16 Larvik Turn W 2-0 1112 1171 38.2% 22.3% 39.5% +17.8 4
1959-08-16 @ Sandefjord L 0-2 1171 1112 39.5% 22.3% 38.2% -17.8 2
1959-08-16 Lillestrom D 0-0 1129 1115 48.2% 22.3% 29.5% -1.1 1
1959-08-16 @ Start D 0-0 1115 1129 29.5% 22.3% 48.2% +1.0 3
1959-08-16 Raufoss W 4-0 1128 1100 50.0% 22.2% 27.8% +25.5 2
1959-08-16 @ Strommen L 0-4 1100 1128 27.8% 22.2% 50.0% -25.5 1
1959-08-16 Viking W 2-1 1141 1160 43.9% 22.3% 33.8% +7.9 4
1959-08-16 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1160 1141 33.8% 22.3% 43.9% -7.9 3
1959-08-23 Valerenga L 0-1 1121 1149 42.7% 22.3% 35.0% -10.0 5
1959-08-23 @ Brann W 1-0 1149 1121 35.0% 22.3% 42.7% +10.0 6
1959-08-23 Eik Tonsberg W 4-1 1239 1157 56.2% 22.0% 21.8% +13.5 8
1959-08-23 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1157 1239 21.8% 22.0% 56.2% -13.5 6
1959-08-23 Larvik Turn L 2-5 1117 1153 41.4% 22.3% 36.3% -19.6 3
1959-08-23 @ Lillestrom W 5-2 1153 1117 36.3% 22.3% 41.4% +19.6 4
1959-08-23 Rapid Moss W 5-0 1127 1090 51.1% 22.2% 26.7% +30.4 4
1959-08-23 @ IF Odd L 0-5 1090 1127 26.7% 22.2% 51.1% -30.4 1
1959-08-23 Brage W 4-1 1074 1114 41.1% 22.3% 36.6% +20.5 3
1959-08-23 @ Raufoss L 1-4 1114 1074 36.6% 22.3% 41.1% -20.5 2
1959-08-23 Start W 4-1 1129 1128 46.6% 22.3% 31.1% +18.1 6
1959-08-23 @ Sandefjord L 1-4 1128 1129 31.1% 22.3% 46.6% -18.0 1
1959-08-23 Strommen D 1-1 1167 1153 48.2% 22.3% 29.5% -0.9 5
1959-08-23 @ Skeid D 1-1 1153 1167 29.5% 22.3% 48.2% +0.9 3
1959-08-23 Greaker D 1-1 1152 1088 54.3% 22.1% 23.7% -1.6 4
1959-08-23 @ Viking D 1-1 1088 1152 23.7% 22.1% 54.3% +1.6 3
1959-09-06 IF Odd D 1-1 1093 1158 37.5% 22.3% 40.2% +0.1 3
1959-09-06 @ Brage D 1-1 1158 1093 40.2% 22.3% 37.5% -0.1 5
1959-09-06 Lillestrom L 1-2 1111 1097 48.2% 22.3% 29.5% -10.5 5
1959-09-06 @ Brann W 2-1 1097 1111 29.5% 22.3% 48.2% +10.5 5
1959-09-06 Skeid W 4-1 1143 1166 43.4% 22.3% 34.3% +19.5 8
1959-09-06 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-4 1166 1143 34.3% 22.3% 43.4% -19.5 5
1959-09-06 Viking L 1-3 1173 1150 49.4% 22.2% 28.4% -18.6 4
1959-09-06 @ Larvik Turn W 3-1 1150 1173 28.4% 22.2% 49.4% +18.6 6
1959-09-06 Strommen L 2-3 1060 1154 33.4% 22.2% 44.4% -7.4 1
1959-09-06 @ Rapid Moss W 3-2 1154 1060 44.4% 22.2% 33.4% +7.4 5
1959-09-06 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1095 1252 25.6% 22.0% 52.4% -6.0 3
1959-09-06 @ Raufoss W 3-2 1252 1095 52.4% 22.0% 25.6% +6.0 10
1959-09-06 Greaker W 3-1 1110 1089 49.1% 22.2% 28.7% +11.9 3
1959-09-06 @ Start L 1-3 1089 1110 28.7% 22.2% 49.1% -11.9 3
1959-09-06 Sandefjord W 3-0 1159 1147 47.9% 22.3% 29.8% +20.7 8
1959-09-06 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1147 1159 29.8% 22.3% 47.9% -20.7 6
1959-09-27 Valerenga L 0-2 1077 1179 32.4% 22.2% 45.4% -15.2 3
1959-09-27 @ Greaker W 2-0 1179 1077 45.4% 22.2% 32.4% +15.2 10
1959-09-27 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1158 1258 32.6% 22.2% 45.2% +0.6 6
1959-09-27 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1258 1158 45.2% 22.2% 32.6% -0.6 11
1959-09-27 Eik Tonsberg D 2-2 1052 1163 31.3% 22.2% 46.6% +0.6 2
1959-09-27 @ Rapid Moss D 2-2 1163 1052 46.6% 22.2% 31.3% -0.6 9
1959-09-27 Lillestrom L 0-2 1127 1107 48.9% 22.2% 28.8% -21.2 6
1959-09-27 @ Sandefjord W 2-0 1107 1127 28.8% 22.2% 48.9% +21.2 7
1959-09-27 Raufoss W 6-1 1147 1089 53.5% 22.1% 24.3% +23.3 7
1959-09-27 @ Skeid L 1-6 1089 1147 24.3% 22.1% 53.5% -23.3 3
1959-09-27 Larvik Turn L 0-2 1122 1154 42.0% 22.3% 35.6% -18.7 3
1959-09-27 @ Start W 2-0 1154 1122 35.6% 22.3% 42.0% +18.7 6
1959-09-27 Brage D 2-2 1162 1093 54.7% 22.1% 23.2% -1.2 6
1959-09-27 @ Strommen D 2-2 1093 1162 23.2% 22.1% 54.7% +1.2 4
1959-10-04 Rapid Moss L 0-1 1095 1053 51.7% 22.2% 26.2% -11.8 4
1959-10-04 @ Brage W 1-0 1053 1095 26.2% 22.2% 51.7% +11.8 4
1959-10-04 Raufoss W 4-1 1162 1066 57.8% 21.9% 20.3% +12.7 11
1959-10-04 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-4 1066 1162 20.3% 21.9% 57.8% -12.7 3
1959-10-04 Skeid L 1-5 1257 1170 56.8% 21.9% 21.3% -38.5 11
1959-10-04 @ Fredrikstad W 5-1 1170 1257 21.3% 21.9% 56.8% +38.5 9
1959-10-04 Brann W 3-0 1173 1100 55.2% 22.0% 22.7% +16.5 8
1959-10-04 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1100 1173 22.7% 22.0% 55.2% -16.5 5
1959-10-04 Start D 3-3 1195 1103 57.2% 21.9% 20.9% -1.2 11
1959-10-04 @ Valerenga D 3-3 1103 1195 20.9% 21.9% 57.2% +1.2 4
1959-10-11 Sandefjord L 0-1 1084 1105 43.5% 22.3% 34.1% -10.2 5
1959-10-11 @ Brann W 1-0 1105 1084 34.1% 22.3% 43.5% +10.2 8
1959-10-11 Strommen W 4-1 1175 1160 48.3% 22.3% 29.4% +17.2 13
1959-10-11 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-4 1160 1175 29.4% 22.3% 48.3% -17.2 6
1959-10-11 Brage D 1-1 1219 1083 61.5% 21.6% 16.9% -2.4 12
1959-10-11 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1083 1219 16.9% 21.6% 61.5% +2.4 5
1959-10-11 Greaker D 1-1 1190 1062 60.8% 21.7% 17.6% -2.3 9
1959-10-11 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1062 1190 17.6% 21.7% 60.8% +2.3 4
1959-10-11 Valerenga W 2-1 1129 1193 37.5% 22.3% 40.2% +9.0 9
1959-10-11 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1193 1129 40.2% 22.3% 37.5% -9.0 11
1959-10-11 IF Odd L 1-2 1053 1158 31.9% 22.2% 45.8% -7.5 3
1959-10-11 @ Raufoss W 2-1 1158 1053 45.8% 22.2% 31.9% +7.5 8
1959-10-11 Rapid Moss L 1-2 1209 1065 62.2% 21.5% 16.3% -13.3 9
1959-10-11 @ Skeid W 2-1 1065 1209 16.3% 21.5% 62.2% +13.3 6
1959-10-11 Start W 5-1 1169 1104 54.3% 22.1% 23.6% +18.6 8
1959-10-11 @ Viking L 1-5 1104 1169 23.6% 22.1% 54.3% -18.6 4
1959-10-25 IF Odd L 0-1 1143 1166 43.4% 22.3% 34.3% -10.2 6
1959-10-25 @ Strommen W 1-0 1166 1143 34.3% 22.3% 43.4% +10.2 10
1960-04-24 Brann D 1-1 1187 1074 59.5% 21.8% 18.8% -2.2 9
1960-04-24 @ Viking D 1-1 1074 1187 18.8% 21.8% 59.5% +2.2 6
1960-04-26 Sandefjord W 2-1 1065 1116 39.4% 22.3% 38.3% +8.7 6
1960-04-26 @ Greaker L 1-2 1116 1065 38.3% 22.3% 39.4% -8.7 8
1960-04-30 Lillestrom D 1-1 1073 1138 37.5% 22.3% 40.2% +0.1 7
1960-04-30 @ Greaker D 1-1 1138 1073 40.2% 22.3% 37.5% -0.1 10
1960-04-30 Viking W 1-0 1107 1185 35.6% 22.3% 42.1% +9.9 10
1960-04-30 @ Sandefjord L 0-1 1185 1107 42.1% 22.3% 35.6% -9.9 9
1960-04-30 Larvik Turn W 2-1 1184 1187 46.0% 22.3% 31.7% +7.5 13
1960-04-30 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1187 1184 31.7% 22.3% 46.0% -7.5 9
1960-05-01 Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1085 1192 31.7% 22.2% 46.1% -7.5 5
1960-05-01 @ Brage W 2-1 1192 1085 46.1% 22.2% 31.7% +7.5 15
1960-05-01 Skeid L 1-2 1176 1195 43.9% 22.3% 33.8% -9.7 10
1960-05-01 @ IF Odd W 2-1 1195 1176 33.8% 22.3% 43.9% +9.7 11
1960-05-01 Raufoss W 3-1 1078 1045 50.6% 22.2% 27.2% +11.4 8
1960-05-01 @ Rapid Moss L 1-3 1045 1078 27.2% 22.2% 50.6% -11.5 3
1960-05-01 Brann L 1-4 1086 1076 47.8% 22.3% 30.0% -25.5 4
1960-05-01 @ Start W 4-1 1076 1086 30.0% 22.3% 47.8% +25.5 8
1960-05-01 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1133 1216 34.9% 22.3% 42.9% -23.4 6
1960-05-01 @ Strommen W 3-0 1216 1133 42.9% 22.3% 34.9% +23.4 14
1960-05-04 Viking W 1-0 1138 1175 41.3% 22.3% 36.4% +8.9 12
1960-05-04 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1175 1138 36.4% 22.3% 41.3% -8.8 9
1960-05-08 Greaker L 0-3 1101 1073 50.0% 22.2% 27.8% -31.5 8
1960-05-08 @ Brann W 3-0 1073 1101 27.8% 22.2% 50.0% +31.5 9
1960-05-08 IF Odd W 5-1 1200 1166 50.7% 22.2% 27.1% +20.8 17
1960-05-08 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-5 1166 1200 27.1% 22.2% 50.7% -20.8 10
1960-05-08 Rapid Moss W 4-0 1240 1090 62.8% 21.5% 15.8% +15.6 16
1960-05-08 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1090 1240 15.8% 21.5% 62.8% -15.6 8
1960-05-08 Sandefjord W 2-1 1180 1117 54.1% 22.1% 23.8% +5.9 11
1960-05-08 @ Larvik Turn L 1-2 1117 1180 23.8% 22.1% 54.1% -5.9 10
1960-05-08 Start D 1-1 1146 1060 56.6% 21.9% 21.4% -1.9 13
1960-05-08 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1060 1146 21.4% 21.9% 56.6% +1.8 5
1960-05-08 Strommen L 0-1 1034 1110 35.9% 22.3% 41.8% -8.8 3
1960-05-08 @ Raufoss W 1-0 1110 1034 41.8% 22.3% 35.9% +8.8 8
1960-05-08 Brage W 1-0 1205 1078 60.7% 21.7% 17.6% +4.8 13
1960-05-08 @ Skeid L 0-1 1078 1205 17.6% 21.7% 60.7% -4.8 5
1960-05-08 Valerenga W 4-0 1166 1192 43.0% 22.3% 34.7% +30.5 11
1960-05-08 @ Viking L 0-4 1192 1166 34.7% 22.3% 43.0% -30.5 13
1960-05-15 Raufoss D 2-2 1073 1025 52.4% 22.1% 25.5% -1.0 6
1960-05-15 @ Brage D 2-2 1025 1073 25.5% 22.1% 52.4% +1.0 4
1960-05-15 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1221 1255 41.7% 22.3% 36.0% -9.8 17
1960-05-15 @ Eik Tonsberg W 1-0 1255 1221 36.0% 22.3% 41.7% +9.8 18
1960-05-15 Viking L 1-3 1105 1197 33.7% 22.2% 44.0% -13.6 9
1960-05-15 @ Greaker W 3-1 1197 1105 44.0% 22.2% 33.7% +13.6 13
1960-05-15 Lillestrom W 3-0 1186 1145 51.6% 22.2% 26.2% +18.6 13
1960-05-15 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1145 1186 26.2% 22.2% 51.6% -18.6 13
1960-05-15 IF Odd D 1-1 1074 1145 36.5% 22.3% 41.2% +0.2 9
1960-05-15 @ Rapid Moss D 1-1 1145 1074 41.2% 22.3% 36.5% -0.2 11
1960-05-15 Sandefjord L 1-2 1062 1111 39.8% 22.3% 37.9% -8.9 5
1960-05-15 @ Start W 2-1 1111 1062 37.9% 22.3% 39.8% +8.9 12
1960-05-15 Skeid D 0-0 1118 1210 33.8% 22.2% 44.0% +0.6 9
1960-05-15 @ Strommen D 0-0 1210 1118 44.0% 22.2% 33.8% -0.6 14
1960-05-15 Brann W 7-0 1161 1070 57.2% 21.9% 20.8% +33.9 15
1960-05-15 @ Valerenga L 0-7 1070 1161 20.8% 21.9% 57.2% -33.9 8
1960-05-22 Raufoss D 1-1 1265 1026 69.3% 20.5% 10.2% -3.3 19
1960-05-22 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1026 1265 10.2% 20.5% 69.3% +3.3 5
1960-05-22 Start W 5-0 1091 1053 51.2% 22.2% 26.6% +30.3 11
1960-05-22 @ Greaker L 0-5 1053 1091 26.6% 22.2% 51.2% -30.3 5
1960-05-22 Brann W 5-3 1126 1036 57.1% 21.9% 21.0% +7.8 15
1960-05-22 @ Lillestrom L 3-5 1036 1126 21.0% 21.9% 57.1% -7.8 8
1960-05-22 Brage W 3-1 1145 1072 55.3% 22.0% 22.7% +9.8 13
1960-05-22 @ IF Odd L 1-3 1072 1145 22.7% 22.0% 55.3% -9.8 6
1960-05-22 Valerenga D 1-1 1120 1195 36.0% 22.3% 41.7% +0.3 13
1960-05-22 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1195 1120 41.7% 22.3% 36.0% -0.3 16
1960-05-22 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1209 1211 46.2% 22.3% 31.5% +12.9 16
1960-05-22 @ Skeid L 1-3 1211 1209 31.5% 22.3% 46.2% -12.9 17
1960-05-22 Rapid Moss L 1-2 1119 1074 52.0% 22.2% 25.8% -11.2 9
1960-05-22 @ Strommen W 2-1 1074 1119 25.8% 22.2% 52.0% +11.2 11
1960-05-22 Larvik Turn W 3-2 1210 1204 47.2% 22.3% 30.5% +6.9 15
1960-05-22 @ Viking L 2-3 1204 1210 30.5% 22.3% 47.2% -6.9 13
1960-05-28 Viking D 1-1 1028 1217 22.2% 21.8% 56.0% +1.8 9
1960-05-28 @ Brann D 1-1 1217 1028 56.0% 21.8% 22.2% -1.8 16
1960-05-28 Start W 5-1 1198 1023 64.8% 21.2% 14.0% +11.7 15
1960-05-28 @ Larvik Turn L 1-5 1023 1198 14.0% 21.2% 64.8% -11.7 5
1960-05-28 Sandefjord W 4-1 1134 1120 48.2% 22.3% 29.5% +17.3 17
1960-05-28 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1120 1134 29.5% 22.3% 48.2% -17.3 13
1960-05-28 Greaker L 1-5 1195 1122 55.3% 22.0% 22.7% -37.6 16
1960-05-28 @ Valerenga W 5-1 1122 1195 22.7% 22.0% 55.3% +37.6 13
1960-05-29 Strommen L 3-4 1062 1108 40.2% 22.3% 37.5% -8.3 6
1960-05-29 @ Brage W 4-3 1108 1062 37.5% 22.3% 40.2% +8.3 11
1960-05-29 Rapid Moss L 1-2 1198 1085 59.3% 21.8% 18.9% -12.7 17
1960-05-29 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1085 1198 18.9% 21.8% 59.3% +12.7 13
1960-05-29 IF Odd W 5-2 1262 1155 58.8% 21.8% 19.4% +10.5 21
1960-05-29 @ Fredrikstad L 2-5 1155 1262 19.4% 21.8% 58.8% -10.5 13
1960-05-29 Skeid D 4-4 1030 1222 21.9% 21.7% 56.4% +1.0 6
1960-05-29 @ Raufoss D 4-4 1222 1030 56.4% 21.7% 21.9% -1.0 17
1960-06-12 Larvik Turn W 4-1 1030 1209 23.2% 21.8% 55.0% +28.9 11
1960-06-12 @ Brann L 1-4 1209 1030 55.0% 21.8% 23.2% -28.9 15
1960-06-12 Strommen L 2-3 1145 1116 50.1% 22.2% 27.7% -10.3 13
1960-06-12 @ IF Odd W 3-2 1116 1145 27.7% 22.2% 50.1% +10.3 13
1960-06-12 Brage W 3-0 1098 1054 52.0% 22.2% 25.9% +18.4 15
1960-06-12 @ Rapid Moss L 0-3 1054 1098 25.9% 22.2% 52.0% -18.4 6
1960-06-12 Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1031 1185 25.9% 22.0% 52.1% +11.2 8
1960-06-12 @ Raufoss L 1-2 1185 1031 52.1% 22.0% 25.9% -11.2 17
1960-06-12 Greaker D 0-0 1103 1159 38.7% 22.3% 39.0% +0.0 14
1960-06-12 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1159 1103 39.0% 22.3% 38.7% -0.0 14
1960-06-12 Fredrikstad L 0-4 1221 1272 39.4% 22.3% 38.3% -33.7 17
1960-06-12 @ Skeid W 4-0 1272 1221 38.3% 22.3% 39.4% +33.7 23
1960-06-12 Valerenga L 0-1 1011 1157 26.9% 22.0% 51.1% -6.9 5
1960-06-12 @ Start W 1-0 1157 1011 51.1% 22.0% 26.9% +6.9 18
1960-06-12 Lillestrom L 0-4 1216 1151 54.3% 22.1% 23.6% -44.3 16
1960-06-12 @ Viking W 4-0 1151 1216 23.6% 22.1% 54.3% +44.3 19

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1960-06-15 Lillestrom W 6-2 1306 1195 59.2% 21.8% 19.1% +13.1 1-0
1960-06-15 @ Fredrikstad L 2-6 1195 1306 19.1% 21.8% 59.2% -13.1 0-1
1960-06-16 Valerenga W 4-2 1174 1164 47.7% 22.3% 30.0% +11.1 1-0
1960-06-16 @ Eik Tonsberg L 2-4 1164 1174 30.0% 22.3% 47.7% -11.1 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1959-10-11 16.26% Rapid Moss 1065 2 @ Skeid 1209 1
2 1960-05-29 18.89% Rapid Moss 1085 2 @ Eik Tonsberg 1198 1
3 1959-10-04 21.27% Skeid 1170 5 @ Fredrikstad 1257 1
4 1960-05-28 22.67% Greaker 1122 5 @ Valerenga 1195 1
5 1960-06-12 23.22% @ Brann 1030 4 Larvik Turn 1209 1
6 1960-06-12 23.61% Lillestrom 1151 4 @ Viking 1216 0
7 1960-05-22 25.80% Rapid Moss 1074 2 @ Strommen 1119 1
8 1960-06-12 25.93% @ Raufoss 1031 2 Eik Tonsberg 1185 1
9 1959-10-04 26.15% Rapid Moss 1053 1 @ Brage 1095 0
10 1960-06-12 27.71% Strommen 1116 3 @ IF Odd 1145 2
11 1960-05-08 27.78% Greaker 1073 3 @ Brann 1101 0
12 1959-09-06 28.39% Viking 1150 3 @ Larvik Turn 1173 1
13 1959-07-26 28.52% Eik Tonsberg 1129 2 @ Strommen 1151 1
14 1959-09-27 28.83% Lillestrom 1107 2 @ Sandefjord 1127 0
15 1959-09-06 29.50% Lillestrom 1097 2 @ Brann 1111 1
16 1960-05-01 29.98% Brann 1076 4 @ Start 1086 1
17 1959-07-26 31.89% Viking 1152 3 @ Start 1147 2
18 1959-08-16 32.38% Eik Tonsberg 1146 1 @ IF Odd 1138 0
19 1959-08-16 32.88% Brann 1110 1 @ Greaker 1098 0
20 1960-05-01 33.84% Skeid 1195 2 @ IF Odd 1176 1
21 1959-10-11 34.14% Sandefjord 1105 1 @ Brann 1084 0
22 1959-10-25 34.28% IF Odd 1166 1 @ Strommen 1143 0
23 1959-07-26 34.64% Fredrikstad 1172 4 @ Brage 1147 0
24 1959-08-23 34.99% Valerenga 1149 1 @ Brann 1121 0
25 1960-04-30 35.59% @ Sandefjord 1107 1 Viking 1185 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-06-12 44.33 Lillestrom 4 1151 23.61% @ Viking 0 1216 54.32% 22.07%
2 1959-10-04 38.52 Skeid 5 1170 21.27% @ Fredrikstad 1 1257 56.79% 21.94%
3 1960-05-28 37.58 Greaker 5 1122 22.67% @ Valerenga 1 1195 55.31% 22.02%
4 1959-07-26 36.15 Fredrikstad 4 1172 34.64% @ Brage 0 1147 43.04% 22.32%
5 1960-05-15 33.94 @ Valerenga 7 1161 57.23% Brann 0 1070 20.85% 21.91%
6 1960-06-12 33.66 Fredrikstad 4 1272 38.31% @ Skeid 0 1221 39.37% 22.32%
7 1960-05-08 31.47 Greaker 3 1073 27.78% @ Brann 0 1101 50.01% 22.22%
8 1959-08-02 31.07 @ Larvik Turn 4 1140 42.15% Valerenga 0 1172 35.53% 22.32%
9 1960-05-08 30.47 @ Viking 4 1166 43.01% Valerenga 0 1192 34.67% 22.32%
10 1959-08-23 30.39 @ IF Odd 5 1127 51.14% Rapid Moss 0 1090 26.68% 22.19%
11 1960-05-22 30.32 @ Greaker 5 1091 51.22% Start 0 1053 26.60% 22.18%
12 1960-06-12 28.87 @ Brann 4 1030 23.22% Larvik Turn 1 1209 54.96% 21.82%
13 1959-08-16 25.50 @ Strommen 4 1128 50.00% Raufoss 0 1100 27.78% 22.22%
14 1960-05-01 25.48 Brann 4 1076 29.98% @ Start 1 1086 47.75% 22.27%
15 1960-05-01 23.42 Fredrikstad 3 1216 42.86% @ Strommen 0 1133 34.87% 22.27%
16 1959-09-27 23.33 @ Skeid 6 1147 53.55% Raufoss 1 1089 24.35% 22.10%
17 1959-09-27 21.25 Lillestrom 2 1107 28.83% @ Sandefjord 0 1127 48.92% 22.25%
18 1959-07-26 21.06 @ IF Odd 3 1128 47.23% Raufoss 0 1122 30.49% 22.28%
19 1960-05-08 20.82 @ Eik Tonsberg 5 1200 50.69% IF Odd 1 1166 27.11% 22.20%
20 1959-09-06 20.68 @ Valerenga 3 1159 47.91% Sandefjord 0 1147 29.82% 22.27%
21 1959-08-23 20.54 @ Raufoss 4 1074 41.06% Brage 1 1114 36.62% 22.32%
22 1959-08-23 19.59 Larvik Turn 5 1153 36.26% @ Lillestrom 2 1117 41.41% 22.32%
23 1959-09-06 19.51 @ Eik Tonsberg 4 1143 43.38% Skeid 1 1166 34.30% 22.32%
24 1959-07-26 19.42 @ Valerenga 3 1152 50.17% Lillestrom 0 1123 27.62% 22.22%
25 1959-09-27 18.69 Larvik Turn 2 1154 35.64% @ Start 0 1122 42.03% 22.32%