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1960-61 Main League Season

112 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

22 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fredrikstad

4.98 points above expected

22 points · 17.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Stavanger

4.81 points below expected

11 points · 15.81 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 10 2 2 22 43 21 +22 17.02 +4.98
2 Eik Tonsberg 14 8 2 4 18 35 21 +14 14.50 +3.50
3 Lyn Oslo 14 7 3 4 17 41 27 +14 18.05 -1.05
4 Rosenborg 14 6 4 4 16 28 28 0 16.87 -0.87
5 Greaker 14 8 0 6 16 22 26 -4 13.44 +2.56
6 Valerenga 14 6 2 6 14 24 17 +7 12.79 +1.21
7 Sandefjord 14 6 2 6 14 34 32 +2 12.20 +1.80
8 Viking 14 5 4 5 14 24 24 0 13.97 +0.03
9 Larvik Turn 14 4 6 4 14 24 30 -6 14.10 -0.10
10 IF Odd 14 4 5 5 13 26 29 -3 12.20 +0.80
11 Lisleby 14 5 3 6 13 20 26 -6 14.55 -1.55
12 Skeid 14 3 6 5 12 21 20 +1 13.30 -1.30
13 Lillestrom 14 4 3 7 11 29 33 -4 13.23 -2.23
14 Strommen 14 3 5 6 11 16 22 -6 11.57 -0.57
15 Stavanger 14 3 5 6 11 15 23 -8 15.81 -4.81
16 Rapid Moss 14 3 2 9 8 19 42 -23 10.42 -2.42

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Valerenga 6
Lyn Oslo 4
Fredrikstad 2
Eik Tonsberg 0

Sim: 4.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1509 22 17.02 +4.98 96.6% 5 12 15 17 19 22 28
Lyn Oslo 1487 17 18.05 -1.05 41.7% 4 13 16 18 20 23 28
Rosenborg 1465 16 16.87 -0.87 44.5% 6 12 15 17 19 22 27
Stavanger 1430 11 15.81 -4.81 8.9% 3 11 14 16 18 21 27
Eik Tonsberg 1419 18 14.50 +3.50 89.9% 4 9 12 15 17 20 26
Lisleby 1411 13 14.55 -1.55 37.0% 3 9 12 15 17 20 27
Valerenga 1399 14 12.79 +1.21 70.6% 1 8 11 13 15 18 25
Viking 1393 14 13.97 +0.03 56.3% 4 9 12 14 16 19 25
Skeid 1388 12 13.30 -1.30 40.5% 1 8 11 13 15 18 27
Greaker 1372 16 13.44 +2.56 82.7% 3 8 11 13 16 19 26
Larvik Turn 1371 14 14.10 -0.10 55.1% 4 9 12 14 16 19 25
IF Odd 1366 13 12.20 +0.80 66.3% 1 7 10 12 14 17 25
Sandefjord 1364 14 12.20 +1.80 77.2% 2 7 10 12 14 17 23
Lillestrom 1357 11 13.23 -2.23 29.0% 2 8 11 13 15 18 27
Strommen 1339 11 11.57 -0.57 49.9% 2 7 9 12 14 17 24
Rapid Moss 1287 8 10.42 -2.42 27.3% 0 6 8 10 12 16 22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ET FRE GRE IO LT LIL LIS LO RM ROS SAN SKE STA STR VAL VIK
Eik Tonsberg —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.05
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.98
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
1.95
2-0-0
3.52
0-0-2
2.33
2-0-0
3.28
0-2-0
2.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Fredrikstad
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.66
0-1-1
3.27
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.12
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.69
1-0-1
3.63
2-0-0
3.33
Greaker
2-0-0
2.45
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.91
1-0-1
3.32
2-0-0
2.11
0-0-2
3.03
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.99
1-0-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.65
0-1-1
2.37
Larvik Turn
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.24
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.07
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.42
0-2-0
3.27
0-0-2
2.93
1-1-0
2.75
Lillestrom
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.87
1-0-1
3.40
0-1-1
2.12
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lisleby
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.39
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.19
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.58
1-1-0
3.34
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.78
Lyn Oslo
0-0-2
3.56
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.64
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
3.88
0-2-0
3.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Rapid Moss
0-0-2
1.99
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.49
 —
0-1-1
1.58
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.23
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.18
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.40
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.39
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
3.96
 —
0-1-1
3.65
1-1-0
3.43
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.64
1-0-1
3.12
1-1-0
1.87
 —
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Skeid
0-2-0
2.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.74
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
1.87
1-1-0
3.28
0-1-1
2.07
1-0-1
2.88
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Stavanger
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.52
0-2-0
3.08
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
3.51
1-0-1
3.30
0-0-2
3.20
Strommen
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.59
0-2-0
2.24
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.01
 —
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.40
Valerenga
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.84
2-0-0
2.56
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.44
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
3.08
 —
1-1-0
2.51
Viking
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.17
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.30
1-1-0
3.10
0-1-1
2.99
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.62 +3.2
Allowed 0.21 -2.5
Differential 0.78 +2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.68%4.46%2.68%5.36%1.79%—16.96%
14.46%9.82%8.93%2.23%2.23%2.23%29.91%
22.68%8.93%8.93%1.79%1.79%2.23%26.34%
35.36%2.23%1.79%0.89%1.34%0.89%12.50%
41.79%2.23%1.79%1.34%0.89%—8.04%
5+—2.23%2.23%0.89%—0.89%6.25%
Total16.96%29.91%26.34%12.50%8.04%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 1.88 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.21
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
1—7.14%————7.14%
2—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
3—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total—64.29%28.57%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.50 +1.00
SD 2.18 0.85 2.29
CV 0.87 0.57 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
17.14%—7.14%———14.29%
2—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
37.14%—————7.14%
4—21.43%—7.14%——28.57%
5+—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.07 1.50 +1.57
SD 1.77 1.22 1.83
CV 0.58 0.82 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———14.29%7.14%—21.43%
114.29%—7.14%7.14%——28.57%
27.14%21.43%————28.57%
3——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%21.43%21.43%21.43%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.86 -0.29
SD 1.22 1.41 2.02
CV 0.78 0.76 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
1—14.29%7.14%—7.14%—28.57%
27.14%7.14%14.29%——7.14%35.71%
3————7.14%—7.14%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———7.14%——7.14%
Total14.29%21.43%35.71%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.07 -0.21
SD 1.41 1.49 1.67
CV 0.76 0.72 —
Max 5 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
1—14.29%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
2—14.29%21.43%———35.71%
3—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%35.71%42.86%——14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 2.14 -0.43
SD 1.14 2.03 2.24
CV 0.66 0.95 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———21.43%——21.43%
1——14.29%—7.14%—21.43%
2—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
37.14%——7.14%——14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
Total14.29%14.29%21.43%28.57%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 2.36 -0.29
SD 1.73 1.50 2.52
CV 0.84 0.64 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%14.29%14.29%14.29%7.14%—64.29%
27.14%7.14%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%21.43%28.57%14.29%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.86 -0.43
SD 0.65 1.51 1.60
CV 0.45 0.81 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———7.14%——7.14%
1——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
2——14.29%——7.14%21.43%
37.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total14.29%21.43%35.71%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.93 1.93 +1.00
SD 1.98 1.33 2.77
CV 0.68 0.69 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
1—7.14%7.14%7.14%—14.29%35.71%
2—21.43%7.14%14.29%—7.14%50.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—35.71%14.29%28.57%—21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 3.00 -1.64
SD 0.74 2.42 2.53
CV 0.55 0.81 —
Max 2 8 +1
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%7.14%7.14%——7.14%35.71%
27.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%42.86%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———7.14%7.14%—14.29%
5+———————
Total28.57%14.29%21.43%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.00 +0.00
SD 1.04 1.80 1.84
CV 0.52 0.90 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————14.29%—14.29%
1——21.43%—7.14%—28.57%
2———————
328.57%—————28.57%
4———7.14%7.14%—14.29%
5+——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
Total28.57%—28.57%7.14%28.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.29 +0.14
SD 1.74 1.77 2.63
CV 0.72 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
1—21.43%14.29%———35.71%
2——21.43%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%42.86%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.43 +0.07
SD 1.22 0.85 1.86
CV 0.82 0.60 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
1—14.29%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
2—14.29%7.14%—7.14%—28.57%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.64 -0.57
SD 1.00 1.50 1.79
CV 0.93 0.91 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
17.14%28.57%————35.71%
27.14%—7.14%7.14%——21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total14.29%42.86%21.43%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.57 -0.43
SD 1.35 1.16 1.83
CV 1.18 0.74 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%—7.14%——28.57%
17.14%7.14%21.43%———35.71%
2—14.29%————14.29%
37.14%—————7.14%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total21.43%42.86%28.57%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.21 +0.50
SD 2.16 0.89 2.41
CV 1.26 0.74 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
17.14%21.43%——7.14%—35.71%
27.14%—7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
37.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%7.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.71 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.86 2.25
CV 0.70 1.08 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 22 17.02 +4.98
2 Eik Tonsberg 18 14.50 +3.50
3 Greaker 16 13.44 +2.56
4 Sandefjord 14 12.20 +1.80
5 Valerenga 14 12.79 +1.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Stavanger 11 15.81 -4.81
2 Rapid Moss 8 10.42 -2.42
3 Lillestrom 11 13.23 -2.23
4 Lisleby 13 14.55 -1.55
5 Skeid 12 13.30 -1.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greaker 4 Aug 18 – Oct 2 1 in 54
2 Larvik Turn 3 Oct 9 – Apr 30 1 in 32
3 Valerenga 3 Sep 11 – Oct 9 1 in 31
4 Viking 3 Aug 17 – Sep 11 1 in 21
5 Eik Tonsberg 4 May 11 – May 28 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 4 Oct 16 – May 14 1 in 70
2 Greaker 4 Oct 9 – May 7 1 in 57
3 Sandefjord 4 May 7 – May 22 1 in 34
4 Rosenborg 3 Sep 11 – Oct 16 1 in 33
5 Lillestrom 3 May 28 – Jun 11 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strommen 4 Aug 21 – Oct 16 1 in 18
2 Valerenga 5 Aug 17 – Oct 9 1 in 15
3 Sandefjord 4 Jul 31 – Aug 21 1 in 11
4 Larvik Turn 5 Jul 31 – Sep 11 1 in 10
5 Viking 5 Jul 31 – Sep 11 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lisleby 6 Aug 17 – Oct 16 1 in 23
2 Stavanger 5 Jul 31 – Sep 11 1 in 21
3 Skeid 6 Aug 17 – Apr 30 1 in 20
4 Valerenga 6 Oct 16 – Jun 4 1 in 14
5 IF Odd 7 Jul 31 – Apr 23 1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad40.18%21.71%14.30%9.14%6.65%4.37%2.23%1.42%
Eik Tonsberg10.50%16.45%18.49%16.61%13.76%11.07%8.03%5.09%
Lyn Oslo47.51%23.05%13.61%7.51%4.43%2.23%1.26%0.40%
Rosenborg25.73%26.07%17.04%12.73%8.43%5.46%3.08%1.46%
Greaker4.85%9.23%12.59%15.03%16.06%16.44%15.13%10.67%
Valerenga5.40%9.38%10.82%13.02%14.86%16.26%15.32%14.94%
Sandefjord2.16%5.82%9.46%12.17%15.45%18.19%19.76%16.99%
Viking9.21%13.02%14.81%14.36%13.87%13.16%12.20%9.37%
Larvik Turn9.31%12.54%13.40%14.41%13.75%13.70%12.79%10.10%
IF Odd3.44%6.06%8.82%11.05%13.24%16.16%19.04%22.19%
Lisleby11.05%14.12%14.84%15.46%14.14%11.98%10.39%8.02%
Skeid4.87%9.37%12.99%14.98%16.42%16.23%15.23%9.91%
Lillestrom3.94%8.35%12.24%15.29%16.47%16.45%15.37%11.89%
Strommen1.96%4.16%6.96%8.47%11.87%15.40%21.34%29.84%
Stavanger19.45%19.01%16.05%14.09%11.62%8.97%6.69%4.12%
Rapid Moss0.44%1.66%3.58%5.68%8.98%13.93%22.14%43.59%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.46%
No Edge
40.18%24.11%35.71%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.52 Elo pts.
182 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.4
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
40%
Fredrikstad, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.52 * Some Luck: 2.52 to 3.78 * Lucky: 3.78 to 5.04 * Wild Swing: 5.04 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.78 * Close: 2.78 to 4.18 * Off: 4.18 to 5.57 * Way Off: 5.57 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.36 points
As Expected
03.158
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.25
Close
03.488
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
96.57%
Fredrikstad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
8.86%
Stavanger
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.89
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
78%
Clear Edge
50%77%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Very Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.23
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.56
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.47
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.63
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.087
Well Within Noise
00.1520.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Eik Tonsberg — —
Fredrikstad — —
Lyn Oslo 50.83% 1.66%
Rosenborg 69.73% 4.54%
Stavanger 69.74% 10.81%
Lisleby 70.54% 18.41%
Viking 69.22% 21.57%
Larvik Turn 67.80% 22.89%
Skeid 69.99% 25.14%
Greaker 69.35% 25.80%
Lillestrom 68.80% 27.26%
Valerenga 64.34% 30.26%
Sandefjord 61.09% 36.75%
IF Odd 55.33% 41.23%
Strommen 46.86% 51.18%
Rapid Moss 33.83% 65.73%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Eik TonsbergFredrikstadGreakerIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromLislebyLyn OsloRosenborgSandefjordSkeidStavangerStrommenValerengaViking
Eik Tonsberg33.3%6.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad66.7%6.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%2.00%47.8%23.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%
Greaker33.3%3.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
IF Odd100.0%1.00%0.0%4.00%
Larvik Turn100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%4.00%
Lillestrom0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Lisleby0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%3.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Lyn Oslo52.2%23.00%100.0%4.00%100.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%71.4%7.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%5.00%
Rosenborg40.0%5.00%50.0%2.00%75.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%
Sandefjord0.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Skeid100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Stavanger0.0%2.00%28.6%7.00%25.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%
Strommen100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Valerenga100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Viking100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%5.00%33.3%3.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 62.71%
Eik Tonsberg 37.29%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Eik TonsbergFredrikstad
Eik Tonsberg37.3%100.00%
Fredrikstad62.7%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1960-07-31 Lillestrom W 4-2 1382 1373 43.1% 25.1% 31.8% +6.3 2
1960-07-31 @ Greaker L 2-4 1373 1382 31.8% 25.1% 43.1% -6.3 0
1960-07-31 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1392 1446 34.4% 25.1% 40.5% +0.1 1
1960-07-31 @ Larvik Turn D 2-2 1446 1392 40.5% 25.1% 34.4% -0.1 1
1960-07-31 IF Odd D 2-2 1430 1365 50.3% 24.6% 25.1% -0.5 1
1960-07-31 @ Lisleby D 2-2 1365 1430 25.1% 24.6% 50.3% +0.5 1
1960-07-31 Rapid Moss W 8-2 1484 1337 59.4% 23.3% 17.3% +9.2 2
1960-07-31 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-8 1337 1484 17.3% 23.3% 59.4% -9.2 0
1960-07-31 Sandefjord D 4-4 1472 1340 57.9% 23.6% 18.5% -0.6 1
1960-07-31 @ Rosenborg D 4-4 1340 1472 18.5% 23.6% 57.9% +0.6 1
1960-07-31 Valerenga L 1-2 1472 1364 55.4% 24.0% 20.6% -6.4 0
1960-07-31 @ Stavanger W 2-1 1364 1472 20.6% 24.0% 55.4% +6.4 2
1960-07-31 Viking L 0-4 1354 1383 38.0% 25.1% 36.9% -17.6 0
1960-07-31 @ Strommen W 4-0 1383 1354 36.9% 25.1% 38.0% +17.6 2
1960-08-02 Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1384 1384 41.9% 25.1% 33.0% -0.2 1
1960-08-02 @ Skeid D 1-1 1384 1384 33.0% 25.1% 41.9% +0.2 1
1960-08-07 Lyn Oslo W 5-2 1385 1493 27.5% 24.6% 47.9% +11.9 3
1960-08-07 @ Eik Tonsberg L 2-5 1493 1385 47.9% 24.6% 27.5% -11.9 2
1960-08-07 Strommen W 3-0 1446 1337 55.5% 24.0% 20.5% +8.2 3
1960-08-07 @ Fredrikstad L 0-3 1337 1446 20.5% 24.0% 55.5% -8.2 0
1960-08-07 Rosenborg D 2-2 1367 1471 27.9% 24.6% 47.5% +0.4 1
1960-08-07 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1471 1367 47.5% 24.6% 27.9% -0.4 2
1960-08-07 Stavanger D 1-1 1366 1466 28.5% 24.7% 46.8% +0.5 2
1960-08-07 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1466 1366 46.8% 24.7% 28.5% -0.5 1
1960-08-07 Skeid L 1-3 1328 1384 34.1% 25.0% 40.8% -7.4 0
1960-08-07 @ Rapid Moss W 3-1 1384 1328 40.8% 25.0% 34.1% +7.4 3
1960-08-07 Greaker W 4-3 1341 1388 35.3% 25.1% 39.6% +4.4 3
1960-08-07 @ Sandefjord L 3-4 1388 1341 39.6% 25.1% 35.3% -4.4 2
1960-08-07 Lisleby L 1-2 1370 1429 33.7% 25.0% 41.3% -4.2 2
1960-08-07 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1429 1370 41.3% 25.0% 33.7% +4.2 3
1960-08-07 Larvik Turn D 1-1 1400 1392 43.0% 25.1% 31.9% -0.3 3
1960-08-07 @ Viking D 1-1 1392 1400 31.9% 25.1% 43.0% +0.3 2
1960-08-17 IF Odd W 2-1 1393 1366 45.5% 25.0% 29.5% +3.8 4
1960-08-17 @ Larvik Turn L 1-2 1366 1393 29.5% 25.0% 45.5% -3.8 2
1960-08-17 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1433 1454 39.1% 25.1% 35.8% -11.7 3
1960-08-17 @ Lisleby W 4-1 1454 1433 35.8% 25.1% 39.1% +11.7 5
1960-08-17 Eik Tonsberg W 4-3 1471 1397 51.5% 24.5% 24.0% +3.0 4
1960-08-17 @ Rosenborg L 3-4 1397 1471 24.0% 24.5% 51.5% -3.0 3
1960-08-17 Sandefjord L 0-3 1391 1345 48.0% 24.8% 27.1% -16.3 3
1960-08-17 @ Skeid W 3-0 1345 1391 27.1% 24.8% 48.0% +16.3 5
1960-08-17 Viking L 0-1 1465 1400 50.4% 24.6% 25.0% -6.2 1
1960-08-17 @ Stavanger W 1-0 1400 1465 25.0% 24.6% 50.4% +6.2 5
1960-08-17 Valerenga L 0-1 1328 1366 36.7% 25.1% 38.2% -4.8 0
1960-08-17 @ Strommen W 1-0 1366 1328 38.2% 25.1% 36.7% +4.8 4
1960-08-18 Rapid Moss W 2-1 1383 1320 50.1% 24.6% 25.2% +3.4 4
1960-08-18 @ Greaker L 1-2 1320 1383 25.2% 24.6% 50.1% -3.4 0
1960-08-18 Lillestrom D 3-3 1481 1367 56.0% 23.9% 20.1% -0.6 3
1960-08-18 @ Lyn Oslo D 3-3 1367 1481 20.1% 23.9% 56.0% +0.6 2
1960-08-21 Greaker L 0-1 1394 1387 42.9% 25.1% 32.1% -5.4 3
1960-08-21 @ Eik Tonsberg W 1-0 1387 1394 32.1% 25.1% 42.9% +5.4 6
1960-08-21 Stavanger W 5-1 1465 1459 42.8% 25.1% 32.1% +12.9 7
1960-08-21 @ Fredrikstad L 1-5 1459 1465 32.1% 25.1% 42.8% -12.9 1
1960-08-21 Skeid D 2-2 1481 1375 55.1% 24.1% 20.8% -0.7 4
1960-08-21 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1375 1481 20.8% 24.1% 55.1% +0.7 4
1960-08-21 Valerenga D 0-0 1363 1371 40.8% 25.1% 34.1% -0.2 3
1960-08-21 @ IF Odd D 0-0 1371 1363 34.1% 25.1% 40.8% +0.2 5
1960-08-21 Rosenborg L 0-1 1317 1474 22.2% 23.9% 53.9% -3.2 0
1960-08-21 @ Rapid Moss W 1-0 1474 1317 53.9% 23.9% 22.2% +3.2 6
1960-08-21 Lillestrom D 5-5 1361 1368 41.1% 25.1% 33.8% -0.1 6
1960-08-21 @ Sandefjord D 5-5 1368 1361 33.8% 25.1% 41.1% +0.1 3
1960-08-21 Larvik Turn D 2-2 1324 1397 31.9% 24.9% 43.2% +0.2 1
1960-08-21 @ Strommen D 2-2 1397 1324 43.2% 24.9% 31.9% -0.2 5
1960-08-21 Lisleby W 3-1 1406 1422 39.8% 25.1% 35.1% +7.6 7
1960-08-21 @ Viking L 1-3 1422 1406 35.1% 25.1% 39.8% -7.6 3
1960-09-04 Greaker L 1-2 1376 1392 39.6% 25.1% 35.2% -4.8 4
1960-09-04 @ Skeid W 2-1 1392 1376 35.2% 25.1% 39.6% +4.8 8
1960-09-11 Stavanger D 0-0 1396 1446 35.0% 25.1% 40.0% +0.1 6
1960-09-11 @ Larvik Turn D 0-0 1446 1396 40.0% 25.1% 35.0% -0.1 2
1960-09-11 Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1368 1388 39.1% 25.1% 35.8% -4.8 3
1960-09-11 @ Lillestrom W 2-1 1388 1368 35.8% 25.1% 39.1% +4.8 5
1960-09-11 Strommen D 1-1 1414 1324 53.4% 24.3% 22.3% -0.9 4
1960-09-11 @ Lisleby D 1-1 1324 1414 22.3% 24.3% 53.4% +0.9 2
1960-09-11 Sandefjord W 2-1 1314 1361 35.3% 25.1% 39.7% +4.8 2
1960-09-11 @ Rapid Moss L 1-2 1361 1314 39.7% 25.1% 35.3% -4.8 6
1960-09-11 Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1477 1480 41.6% 25.1% 33.3% -15.8 6
1960-09-11 @ Rosenborg W 5-1 1480 1477 33.3% 25.1% 41.6% +15.8 6
1960-09-11 Fredrikstad W 4-2 1371 1478 27.6% 24.6% 47.8% +8.7 7
1960-09-11 @ Valerenga L 2-4 1478 1371 47.8% 24.6% 27.6% -8.7 7
1960-09-11 IF Odd W 2-0 1414 1362 48.7% 24.8% 26.5% +7.0 9
1960-09-11 @ Viking L 0-2 1362 1414 26.5% 24.8% 48.7% -7.0 3
1960-10-02 Rapid Moss W 8-1 1393 1319 51.5% 24.5% 24.0% +17.1 7
1960-10-02 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-8 1319 1393 24.0% 24.5% 51.5% -17.1 2
1960-10-02 Viking W 4-1 1470 1421 48.4% 24.8% 26.8% +8.7 9
1960-10-02 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1421 1470 26.8% 24.8% 48.4% -8.7 9
1960-10-02 Rosenborg W 3-2 1397 1461 33.0% 25.0% 42.0% +4.8 10
1960-10-02 @ Greaker L 2-3 1461 1397 42.0% 25.0% 33.0% -4.8 6
1960-10-02 Valerenga L 1-2 1396 1379 44.2% 25.0% 30.7% -5.2 6
1960-10-02 @ Larvik Turn W 2-1 1379 1396 30.7% 25.0% 44.2% +5.2 9
1960-10-02 Sandefjord W 4-1 1496 1357 58.7% 23.4% 17.9% +6.1 8
1960-10-02 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-4 1357 1496 17.9% 23.4% 58.7% -6.1 6
1960-10-02 Lillestrom L 1-2 1371 1363 43.0% 25.1% 31.9% -5.1 4
1960-10-02 @ Skeid W 2-1 1363 1371 31.9% 25.1% 43.0% +5.1 5
1960-10-02 Lisleby W 2-1 1446 1413 46.3% 24.9% 28.8% +3.8 4
1960-10-02 @ Stavanger L 1-2 1413 1446 28.8% 24.9% 46.3% -3.8 4
1960-10-09 Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1402 1502 28.4% 24.7% 46.8% -6.4 10
1960-10-09 @ Greaker W 3-1 1502 1402 46.8% 24.7% 28.4% +6.4 10
1960-10-09 Rapid Moss W 5-1 1368 1302 50.6% 24.6% 24.8% +10.5 7
1960-10-09 @ Lillestrom L 1-5 1302 1368 24.8% 24.6% 50.6% -10.5 2
1960-10-09 Larvik Turn L 1-3 1410 1391 44.4% 25.0% 30.6% -9.1 4
1960-10-09 @ Lisleby W 3-1 1391 1410 30.6% 25.0% 44.4% +9.1 8
1960-10-09 Strommen L 0-2 1450 1325 57.2% 23.7% 19.1% -13.1 4
1960-10-09 @ Stavanger W 2-0 1325 1450 19.1% 23.7% 57.2% +13.1 4
1960-10-09 Viking W 3-0 1385 1412 38.1% 25.1% 36.8% +13.2 11
1960-10-09 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1412 1385 36.8% 25.1% 38.1% -13.2 9
1960-10-16 Skeid D 2-2 1410 1366 47.8% 24.8% 27.4% -0.4 8
1960-10-16 @ Eik Tonsberg D 2-2 1366 1410 27.4% 24.8% 47.8% +0.4 5
1960-10-16 Larvik Turn L 1-2 1478 1400 52.0% 24.5% 23.6% -6.0 9
1960-10-16 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1400 1478 23.6% 24.5% 52.0% +6.0 10
1960-10-16 Greaker W 3-0 1379 1395 39.6% 25.1% 35.3% +12.8 9
1960-10-16 @ Lillestrom L 0-3 1395 1379 35.3% 25.1% 39.6% -12.8 10
1960-10-16 Lisleby D 1-1 1355 1400 35.6% 25.1% 39.3% +0.1 4
1960-10-16 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1400 1355 39.3% 25.1% 35.6% -0.1 5
1960-10-16 Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1291 1508 17.0% 22.7% 60.4% -2.2 2
1960-10-16 @ Rapid Moss W 3-2 1508 1291 60.4% 22.7% 17.0% +2.2 12
1960-10-16 Rosenborg W 5-2 1350 1457 27.7% 24.6% 47.7% +11.8 8
1960-10-16 @ Sandefjord L 2-5 1457 1350 47.7% 24.6% 27.7% -11.8 6
1960-10-16 Stavanger L 0-3 1398 1437 36.5% 25.1% 38.4% -13.1 11
1960-10-16 @ Valerenga W 3-0 1437 1398 38.4% 25.1% 36.5% +13.1 6
1960-10-16 Strommen D 1-1 1399 1338 49.9% 24.7% 25.4% -0.7 10
1960-10-16 @ Viking D 1-1 1338 1399 25.4% 24.7% 49.9% +0.7 5
1961-04-23 Fredrikstad L 3-4 1355 1472 26.5% 24.5% 49.0% -3.2 4
1961-04-23 @ IF Odd W 4-3 1472 1355 49.0% 24.5% 26.5% +3.2 11
1961-04-30 Sandefjord L 0-3 1383 1362 44.7% 25.0% 30.3% -15.4 10
1961-04-30 @ Greaker W 3-0 1362 1383 30.3% 25.0% 44.7% +15.4 10
1961-04-30 Viking W 4-2 1406 1398 43.0% 25.1% 31.9% +6.3 12
1961-04-30 @ Larvik Turn L 2-4 1398 1406 31.9% 25.1% 43.0% -6.3 10
1961-04-30 Valerenga W 1-0 1400 1385 44.1% 25.0% 30.9% +4.2 7
1961-04-30 @ Lisleby L 0-1 1385 1400 30.9% 25.0% 44.1% -4.2 11
1961-04-30 Eik Tonsberg L 1-3 1510 1410 54.6% 24.1% 21.3% -10.9 12
1961-04-30 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1410 1510 21.3% 24.1% 54.6% +10.9 10
1961-04-30 Lillestrom W 3-0 1445 1391 49.0% 24.7% 26.3% +10.1 8
1961-04-30 @ Rosenborg L 0-3 1391 1445 26.3% 24.7% 49.0% -10.1 9
1961-04-30 Rapid Moss D 1-1 1366 1289 51.9% 24.5% 23.7% -0.8 6
1961-04-30 @ Skeid D 1-1 1289 1366 23.7% 24.5% 51.9% +0.8 3
1961-04-30 IF Odd L 2-4 1450 1352 54.2% 24.2% 21.6% -9.7 6
1961-04-30 @ Stavanger W 4-2 1352 1450 21.6% 24.2% 54.2% +9.7 6
1961-04-30 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1338 1476 24.2% 24.2% 51.5% -3.4 5
1961-04-30 @ Strommen W 1-0 1476 1338 51.5% 24.2% 24.2% +3.5 13
1961-05-07 Rosenborg L 0-2 1420 1455 37.1% 25.1% 37.8% -9.1 10
1961-05-07 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-0 1455 1420 37.8% 25.1% 37.1% +9.1 10
1961-05-07 Lisleby W 5-2 1479 1405 51.5% 24.5% 23.9% +6.8 15
1961-05-07 @ Fredrikstad L 2-5 1405 1479 23.9% 24.5% 51.5% -6.9 7
1961-05-07 Lyn Oslo L 0-3 1381 1500 26.3% 24.5% 49.2% -10.1 9
1961-05-07 @ Lillestrom W 3-0 1500 1381 49.2% 24.5% 26.3% +10.1 14
1961-05-07 Larvik Turn W 5-3 1362 1413 34.8% 25.1% 40.1% +7.1 8
1961-05-07 @ IF Odd L 3-5 1413 1362 40.1% 25.1% 34.8% -7.1 12
1961-05-07 Greaker W 2-1 1290 1367 31.2% 24.9% 43.9% +5.2 5
1961-05-07 @ Rapid Moss L 1-2 1367 1290 43.9% 24.9% 31.2% -5.2 10
1961-05-07 Skeid L 0-4 1378 1365 43.6% 25.0% 31.3% -19.7 10
1961-05-07 @ Sandefjord W 4-0 1365 1378 31.3% 25.0% 43.6% +19.7 8
1961-05-07 Strommen L 0-1 1381 1335 48.0% 24.8% 27.2% -6.0 11
1961-05-07 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1335 1381 27.2% 24.8% 48.0% +6.0 7
1961-05-07 Stavanger W 3-0 1392 1440 35.2% 25.1% 39.7% +14.0 12
1961-05-07 @ Viking L 0-3 1440 1392 39.7% 25.1% 35.2% -14.0 6
1961-05-11 IF Odd W 5-2 1341 1369 38.0% 25.1% 36.9% +9.7 9
1961-05-11 @ Strommen L 2-5 1369 1341 36.9% 25.1% 38.0% -9.7 8
1961-05-11 Skeid W 1-0 1464 1385 52.1% 24.4% 23.5% +3.4 12
1961-05-11 @ Rosenborg L 0-1 1385 1464 23.5% 24.4% 52.1% -3.4 8
1961-05-11 Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1358 1411 34.4% 25.1% 40.5% -4.3 10
1961-05-11 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1411 1358 40.5% 25.1% 34.4% +4.3 12
1961-05-14 Strommen D 1-1 1406 1351 49.1% 24.7% 26.1% -0.6 13
1961-05-14 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1351 1406 26.1% 24.7% 49.1% +0.6 10
1961-05-14 Sandefjord W 4-0 1371 1354 44.3% 25.0% 30.7% +15.0 11
1961-05-14 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1354 1371 30.7% 25.0% 44.3% -15.0 10
1961-05-14 Viking W 1-0 1398 1406 40.8% 25.1% 34.1% +4.5 9
1961-05-14 @ Lisleby L 0-1 1406 1398 34.1% 25.1% 40.8% -4.5 12
1961-05-14 Eik Tonsberg L 2-3 1295 1416 26.0% 24.4% 49.5% -3.3 5
1961-05-14 @ Rapid Moss W 3-2 1416 1295 49.5% 24.4% 26.0% +3.3 14
1961-05-14 Greaker L 1-2 1468 1362 55.1% 24.1% 20.9% -6.3 12
1961-05-14 @ Rosenborg W 2-1 1362 1468 20.9% 24.1% 55.1% +6.3 12
1961-05-14 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1426 1486 33.6% 25.0% 41.4% +0.2 7
1961-05-14 @ Stavanger D 0-0 1486 1426 41.4% 25.0% 33.6% -0.2 16
1961-05-14 IF Odd L 1-2 1375 1359 44.0% 25.0% 30.9% -5.2 11
1961-05-14 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1359 1375 30.9% 25.0% 44.0% +5.2 10
1961-05-19 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1382 1510 25.2% 24.4% 50.4% +0.5 9
1961-05-19 @ Skeid D 2-2 1510 1382 50.4% 24.4% 25.2% -0.5 15
1961-05-22 Sandefjord W 2-1 1419 1339 52.2% 24.4% 23.4% +3.2 16
1961-05-22 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1339 1419 23.4% 24.4% 52.2% -3.2 10
1961-05-28 Lillestrom W 4-1 1422 1386 46.8% 24.9% 28.3% +9.1 18
1961-05-28 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-4 1386 1422 28.3% 24.9% 46.8% -9.1 11
1961-05-28 IF Odd W 4-1 1486 1365 56.8% 23.8% 19.4% +6.6 18
1961-05-28 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1365 1486 19.4% 23.8% 56.8% -6.6 10
1961-05-28 Skeid W 2-0 1368 1382 40.0% 25.1% 34.8% +8.7 14
1961-05-28 @ Greaker L 0-2 1382 1368 34.8% 25.1% 40.0% -8.7 9
1961-05-28 Lisleby L 0-2 1405 1402 42.3% 25.1% 32.6% -10.1 13
1961-05-28 @ Larvik Turn W 2-0 1402 1405 32.6% 25.1% 42.3% +10.1 11
1961-05-28 Rosenborg L 1-2 1509 1461 48.3% 24.8% 26.9% -5.6 15
1961-05-28 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1461 1509 26.9% 24.8% 48.3% +5.6 14
1961-05-28 Rapid Moss W 3-0 1335 1291 47.8% 24.8% 27.4% +10.5 12
1961-05-28 @ Sandefjord L 0-3 1291 1335 27.4% 24.8% 47.8% -10.5 5
1961-05-28 Stavanger D 1-1 1351 1426 31.6% 24.9% 43.5% +0.3 11
1961-05-28 @ Strommen D 1-1 1426 1351 43.5% 24.9% 31.6% -0.3 8
1961-05-28 Valerenga D 1-1 1401 1369 46.2% 24.9% 28.8% -0.5 13
1961-05-28 @ Viking D 1-1 1369 1401 28.8% 24.9% 46.2% +0.5 12
1961-06-04 Valerenga W 2-1 1492 1370 56.9% 23.8% 19.3% +2.7 20
1961-06-04 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1370 1492 19.3% 23.8% 56.9% -2.7 12
1961-06-04 Greaker W 4-0 1504 1377 57.4% 23.7% 19.0% +10.0 17
1961-06-04 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-4 1377 1504 19.0% 23.7% 57.4% -10.0 14
1961-06-04 Viking D 2-2 1358 1401 35.9% 25.1% 39.0% +0.1 11
1961-06-04 @ IF Odd D 2-2 1401 1358 39.0% 25.1% 35.9% -0.1 14
1961-06-04 Lillestrom W 2-1 1281 1377 28.9% 24.7% 46.3% +5.4 7
1961-06-04 @ Rapid Moss L 1-2 1377 1281 46.3% 24.7% 28.9% -5.4 11
1961-06-04 Rosenborg D 1-1 1373 1467 29.2% 24.8% 46.0% +0.4 10
1961-06-04 @ Skeid D 1-1 1467 1373 46.0% 24.8% 29.2% -0.4 15
1961-06-04 Larvik Turn D 2-2 1426 1395 46.1% 24.9% 28.9% -0.3 9
1961-06-04 @ Stavanger D 2-2 1395 1426 28.9% 24.9% 46.1% +0.3 14
1961-06-04 Lisleby L 2-3 1352 1412 33.5% 25.0% 41.5% -4.0 11
1961-06-04 @ Strommen W 3-2 1412 1352 41.5% 25.0% 33.5% +4.0 13
1961-06-11 Eik Tonsberg W 1-0 1367 1431 33.0% 25.0% 42.0% +5.3 16
1961-06-11 @ Greaker L 0-1 1431 1367 42.0% 25.0% 33.0% -5.3 18
1961-06-11 Skeid L 0-3 1372 1374 41.6% 25.1% 33.3% -14.5 11
1961-06-11 @ Lillestrom W 3-0 1374 1372 33.3% 25.1% 41.6% +14.5 12
1961-06-11 Stavanger L 1-2 1416 1426 40.7% 25.1% 34.2% -4.9 13
1961-06-11 @ Lisleby W 2-1 1426 1416 34.2% 25.1% 40.7% +4.9 11
1961-06-11 Strommen W 2-0 1358 1348 43.4% 25.1% 31.6% +8.1 13
1961-06-11 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1348 1358 31.6% 25.1% 43.4% -8.1 11
1961-06-11 Rapid Moss D 2-2 1466 1286 62.6% 22.5% 14.9% -1.0 16
1961-06-11 @ Rosenborg D 2-2 1286 1466 14.9% 22.5% 62.6% +1.0 8
1961-06-11 Lyn Oslo W 3-0 1346 1514 21.2% 23.7% 55.1% +18.3 14
1961-06-11 @ Sandefjord L 0-3 1514 1346 55.1% 23.7% 21.2% -18.3 17
1961-06-11 Larvik Turn W 8-1 1367 1395 38.0% 25.1% 36.9% +24.1 14
1961-06-11 @ Valerenga L 1-8 1395 1367 36.9% 25.1% 38.0% -24.1 14
1961-06-11 Fredrikstad L 3-6 1401 1495 29.2% 24.8% 46.1% -7.4 14
1961-06-11 @ Viking W 6-3 1495 1401 46.1% 24.8% 29.2% +7.4 22

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1961-06-14 Lyn Oslo W 6-4 1391 1495 28.0% 24.7% 47.4% +7.8 1-0
1961-06-14 @ Valerenga L 4-6 1495 1391 47.4% 24.7% 28.0% -7.8 0-1
1961-06-16 Eik Tonsberg W 2-0 1502 1426 51.8% 24.5% 23.7% +6.4 1-0
1961-06-16 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1426 1502 23.7% 24.5% 51.8% -6.4 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1960-10-09 19.10% Strommen 1325 2 @ Stavanger 1450 0
2 1960-07-31 20.59% Valerenga 1364 2 @ Stavanger 1472 1
3 1961-05-14 20.86% Greaker 1362 2 @ Rosenborg 1468 1
4 1961-06-11 21.20% @ Sandefjord 1346 3 Lyn Oslo 1514 0
5 1961-04-30 21.30% Eik Tonsberg 1410 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1510 1
6 1961-04-30 21.63% IF Odd 1352 4 @ Stavanger 1450 2
7 1960-10-16 23.58% Larvik Turn 1400 2 @ Fredrikstad 1478 1
8 1960-08-17 24.97% Viking 1400 1 @ Stavanger 1465 0
9 1961-05-28 26.92% Rosenborg 1461 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1509 1
10 1960-08-17 27.14% Sandefjord 1345 3 @ Skeid 1391 0
11 1961-05-07 27.20% Strommen 1335 1 @ Valerenga 1381 0
12 1960-08-07 27.46% @ Eik Tonsberg 1385 5 Lyn Oslo 1493 2
13 1960-09-11 27.55% @ Valerenga 1371 4 Fredrikstad 1478 2
14 1960-10-16 27.70% @ Sandefjord 1350 5 Rosenborg 1457 2
15 1961-06-14 * 27.98% @ Valerenga 1391 6 Lyn Oslo 1495 4
16 1961-06-04 28.94% @ Rapid Moss 1281 2 Lillestrom 1377 1
17 1961-04-30 30.29% Sandefjord 1362 3 @ Greaker 1383 0
18 1960-10-09 30.55% Larvik Turn 1391 3 @ Lisleby 1410 1
19 1960-10-02 30.73% Valerenga 1379 2 @ Larvik Turn 1396 1
20 1961-05-14 30.94% IF Odd 1359 2 @ Valerenga 1375 1
21 1961-05-07 31.23% @ Rapid Moss 1290 2 Greaker 1367 1
22 1961-05-07 31.33% Skeid 1365 4 @ Sandefjord 1378 0
23 1960-10-02 31.91% Lillestrom 1363 2 @ Skeid 1371 1
24 1960-08-21 32.06% Greaker 1387 1 @ Eik Tonsberg 1394 0
25 1961-05-28 32.60% Lisleby 1402 2 @ Larvik Turn 1405 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1961-06-11 24.06 @ Valerenga 8 1367 38.03% Larvik Turn 1 1395 36.85% 25.12%
2 1961-05-07 19.68 Skeid 4 1365 31.33% @ Sandefjord 0 1378 43.62% 25.04%
3 1961-06-11 18.33 @ Sandefjord 3 1346 21.20% Lyn Oslo 0 1514 55.08% 23.71%
4 1960-07-31 17.65 Viking 4 1383 36.91% @ Strommen 0 1354 37.97% 25.12%
5 1960-10-02 17.12 @ Eik Tonsberg 8 1393 51.50% Rapid Moss 1 1319 23.99% 24.51%
6 1960-08-17 16.32 Sandefjord 3 1345 27.14% @ Skeid 0 1391 48.05% 24.81%
7 1960-09-11 15.78 Lyn Oslo 5 1480 33.31% @ Rosenborg 1 1477 41.59% 25.10%
8 1961-04-30 15.37 Sandefjord 3 1362 30.29% @ Greaker 0 1383 44.70% 25.00%
9 1961-05-14 14.99 @ Lillestrom 4 1371 44.32% Sandefjord 0 1354 30.66% 25.02%
10 1961-06-11 14.51 Skeid 3 1374 33.27% @ Lillestrom 0 1372 41.63% 25.10%
11 1961-05-07 13.98 @ Viking 3 1392 35.20% Stavanger 0 1440 39.73% 25.07%
12 1960-10-09 13.19 @ Valerenga 3 1385 38.10% Viking 0 1412 36.78% 25.12%
13 1960-10-16 13.11 Stavanger 3 1437 38.39% @ Valerenga 0 1398 36.51% 25.10%
14 1960-10-09 13.10 Strommen 2 1325 19.10% @ Stavanger 0 1450 57.19% 23.71%
15 1960-08-21 12.94 @ Fredrikstad 5 1465 42.84% Stavanger 1 1459 32.09% 25.07%
16 1960-10-16 12.78 @ Lillestrom 3 1379 39.60% Greaker 0 1395 35.28% 25.12%
17 1960-08-07 11.87 @ Eik Tonsberg 5 1385 27.46% Lyn Oslo 2 1493 47.93% 24.61%
18 1960-10-16 11.82 @ Sandefjord 5 1350 27.70% Rosenborg 2 1457 47.66% 24.63%
19 1960-08-17 11.65 Fredrikstad 4 1454 35.79% @ Lisleby 1 1433 39.09% 25.12%
20 1961-04-30 10.88 Eik Tonsberg 3 1410 21.30% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1510 54.57% 24.13%
21 1960-10-09 10.54 @ Lillestrom 5 1368 50.57% Rapid Moss 1 1302 24.83% 24.60%
22 1961-05-28 10.49 @ Sandefjord 3 1335 47.78% Rapid Moss 0 1291 27.39% 24.83%
23 1961-04-30 10.14 @ Rosenborg 3 1445 48.99% Lillestrom 0 1391 26.27% 24.74%
24 1961-05-28 10.12 Lisleby 2 1402 32.60% @ Larvik Turn 0 1405 42.32% 25.08%
25 1961-05-07 10.11 Lyn Oslo 3 1500 49.21% @ Lillestrom 0 1381 26.31% 24.49%