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1958-59 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

22 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lillestrom

6.00 points above expected

19 points · 13.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kapp

4.39 points below expected

6 points · 10.39 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 8 6 0 22 34 14 +20 19.54 +2.46
2 Lillestrom 14 9 1 4 19 36 25 +11 13.00 +6.00
3 Eik Tonsberg 14 7 4 3 18 26 15 +11 13.40 +4.60
4 Viking 14 7 3 4 17 25 17 +8 17.48 -0.48
5 Larvik Turn 14 5 6 3 16 38 25 +13 15.81 +0.19
6 Strommen 14 5 6 3 16 27 20 +7 16.43 -0.43
7 Skeid 14 6 3 5 15 28 18 +10 17.43 -2.43
8 Raufoss 14 5 5 4 15 24 19 +5 11.36 +3.64
9 IF Odd 14 5 3 6 13 23 29 -6 14.13 -1.13
10 Sandefjord 14 4 4 6 12 19 21 -2 12.63 -0.63
11 Freidig 14 5 2 7 12 34 38 -4 13.45 -1.45
12 Brann 14 5 2 7 12 21 27 -6 11.25 +0.75
13 Greaker 14 4 4 6 12 19 25 -6 12.51 -0.51
14 Asker 14 3 5 6 11 18 19 -1 14.22 -3.22
15 Arstad 14 3 2 9 8 12 36 -24 10.97 -2.97
16 Kapp 14 2 2 10 6 19 55 -36 10.39 -4.39

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Lillestrom 6
Fredrikstad 3

Leg 1: Lillestrom 2-2 Fredrikstad

Leg 2: Lillestrom 4-1 Fredrikstad

Sim: 1.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1329 22 19.54 +2.46 85.5% 8 15 18 20 21 24 28
Skeid 1251 15 17.43 -2.43 25.4% 4 13 15 17 19 22 27
Viking 1250 17 17.48 -0.48 49.6% 5 13 16 18 19 22 26
Strommen 1245 16 16.43 -0.43 50.8% 4 11 14 16 19 21 27
Larvik Turn 1233 16 15.81 +0.19 59.2% 5 11 14 16 18 21 26
Eik Tonsberg 1181 18 13.40 +4.60 95.4% 3 9 11 13 15 18 24
IF Odd 1178 13 14.13 -1.13 41.5% 4 9 12 14 16 19 26
Asker 1173 11 14.22 -3.22 19.2% 3 9 12 14 16 19 25
Lillestrom 1167 19 13.00 +6.00 98.5% 2 8 11 13 15 18 23
Freidig 1158 12 13.45 -1.45 37.0% 3 9 11 13 15 18 25
Raufoss 1157 15 11.36 +3.64 91.0% 2 6 9 11 13 16 23
Sandefjord 1124 12 12.63 -0.63 48.0% 3 8 11 13 15 18 24
Greaker 1098 12 12.51 -0.51 49.9% 1 8 10 13 15 17 24
Brann 1097 12 11.25 +0.75 66.9% 1 6 9 11 13 16 23
Kapp 1030 6 10.39 -4.39 9.1% 1 6 8 10 12 15 23
Arstad 1028 8 10.97 -2.97 20.3% 2 6 9 11 13 16 22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARS ASK BRA ET FRE FRE GRE IO KAP LT LIL RAU SAN SKE STR VIK
Arstad —
0-1-1
2.09
0-0-2
2.73
1-0-1
2.36
0-0-2
1.34
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.29
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.53
Asker
1-1-0
3.36
 —
0-1-1
3.29
1-1-0
2.80
0-1-1
1.82
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.13
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.06
Brann
2-0-0
2.72
1-1-0
2.17
 —
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.62
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.64
Eik Tonsberg
1-0-1
3.09
0-1-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.17
 —
0-1-1
1.55
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.83
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.95
Fredrikstad
2-0-0
4.17
1-1-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.26
1-1-0
3.94
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
4.13
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.05
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.30
Freidig
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.18
0-2-0
2.28
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.13
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-0
0.00
Greaker
1-0-1
3.11
2-0-0
2.32
0-0-2
3.11
0-1-1
2.54
0-2-0
1.37
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.78
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.80
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.52
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-2
2.97
1-1-0
3.26
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.02
0-1-1
2.29
0-0-0
0.00
Kapp
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.93
 —
0-0-2
1.77
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.45
0-2-0
1.81
0-0-0
0.00
Larvik Turn
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.17
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.01
2-0-0
3.71
 —
1-0-1
3.29
0-1-1
3.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
Lillestrom
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.61
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.48
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
2.17
 —
1-0-1
3.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.81
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-0
0.00
Raufoss
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.81
1-1-0
1.89
1-0-1
2.45
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.54
0-2-0
1.85
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
1-1-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.41
1-1-0
2.82
0-0-2
2.62
0-1-1
1.46
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.74
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.76
Skeid
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.33
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.45
2-0-0
4.05
1-1-0
2.88
0-1-1
3.67
0-1-1
3.95
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.96
0-0-0
0.00
Strommen
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.16
0-2-0
3.68
0-1-1
2.95
1-0-1
3.58
0-2-0
3.62
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.50
 —
0-0-0
0.00
Viking
1-0-1
3.96
1-0-1
3.40
2-0-0
3.84
0-1-1
3.53
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.52 +4.0
Allowed 0.58 -3.0
Differential 0.87 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%4.02%4.46%3.57%2.68%2.23%23.21%
14.02%12.50%4.91%4.46%1.34%3.57%30.80%
24.46%4.91%4.46%1.34%2.23%1.34%18.75%
33.57%4.46%1.34%2.68%—0.89%12.95%
42.68%1.34%2.23%———6.25%
5+2.23%3.57%1.34%0.89%——8.04%
Total23.21%30.80%18.75%12.95%6.25%8.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 1.80 +0.00
SD 1.73 1.73 2.63
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 10 10 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%21.43%7.14%14.29%50.00%
1—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
27.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%21.43%14.29%35.71%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.57 -1.71
SD 0.95 1.50 2.27
CV 1.11 0.59 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%————28.57%
1—21.43%—21.43%——42.86%
2—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total28.57%42.86%—21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.36 -0.07
SD 1.38 1.34 2.02
CV 1.08 0.98 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%——7.14%7.14%28.57%
1—7.14%21.43%—7.14%—35.71%
2—7.14%————7.14%
37.14%—7.14%———14.29%
47.14%—7.14%———14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%21.43%35.71%—14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.93 -0.43
SD 1.45 1.73 2.68
CV 0.97 0.90 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——7.14%7.14%—21.43%
1—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
221.43%7.14%7.14%———35.71%
3—7.14%————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.07 +0.79
SD 1.66 1.27 2.58
CV 0.89 1.18 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
17.14%21.43%————28.57%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
314.29%14.29%—14.29%——42.86%
414.29%—————14.29%
5+———————
Total35.71%42.86%7.14%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.00 +1.43
SD 1.09 1.04 1.55
CV 0.45 1.04 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%———14.29%—21.43%
1———7.14%7.14%—14.29%
27.14%——7.14%7.14%—21.43%
3—7.14%—7.14%—7.14%21.43%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
Total14.29%14.29%7.14%28.57%28.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.71 -0.29
SD 2.21 1.73 2.92
CV 0.91 0.64 —
Max 8 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——21.43%—7.14%—28.57%
17.14%21.43%7.14%———35.71%
2————7.14%—7.14%
37.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%35.71%7.14%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.79 -0.43
SD 1.22 1.25 1.87
CV 0.90 0.70 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—7.14%——7.14%28.57%
1—7.14%7.14%——14.29%28.57%
27.14%7.14%——7.14%—21.43%
37.14%—————7.14%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total28.57%21.43%21.43%—7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.07 -0.43
SD 1.74 2.09 2.98
CV 1.06 1.01 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%——7.14%21.43%
17.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%—21.43%50.00%
2——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
3—————7.14%7.14%
4———————
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total7.14%14.29%28.57%7.14%—42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 3.93 -2.57
SD 1.34 3.05 3.18
CV 0.98 0.78 —
Max 5 10 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
17.14%7.14%——7.14%7.14%28.57%
2——14.29%—7.14%—21.43%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
Total28.57%21.43%21.43%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.71 1.79 +0.93
SD 2.84 1.67 3.41
CV 1.05 0.94 —
Max 10 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
17.14%————7.14%14.29%
27.14%7.14%———14.29%28.57%
3—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—14.29%————14.29%
Total21.43%42.86%14.29%——21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.57 1.79 +0.79
SD 2.03 1.85 2.86
CV 0.79 1.03 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
17.14%28.57%7.14%——7.14%50.00%
2———————
37.14%—————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total28.57%42.86%21.43%——7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.36 +0.36
SD 1.77 1.78 2.65
CV 1.03 1.31 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%14.29%7.14%——28.57%
1—21.43%—7.14%——28.57%
214.29%—7.14%7.14%——28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%42.86%21.43%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.50 -0.14
SD 1.22 1.02 1.83
CV 0.90 0.68 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%—21.43%——42.86%
1——7.14%———7.14%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3———————
47.14%14.29%————21.43%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total28.57%35.71%14.29%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.29 +0.71
SD 2.18 1.14 2.87
CV 1.09 0.89 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
1—21.43%—14.29%——35.71%
27.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.43 +0.50
SD 1.73 1.09 1.91
CV 0.90 0.76 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
121.43%14.29%14.29%7.14%——57.14%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total28.57%35.71%21.43%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.21 +0.57
SD 1.42 1.05 1.74
CV 0.80 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lillestrom 19 13.00 +6.00
2 Eik Tonsberg 18 13.40 +4.60
3 Raufoss 15 11.36 +3.64
4 Fredrikstad 22 19.54 +2.46
5 Brann 12 11.25 +0.75

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kapp 6 10.39 -4.39
2 Asker 11 14.22 -3.22
3 Arstad 8 10.97 -2.97
4 Skeid 15 17.43 -2.43
5 Freidig 12 13.45 -1.45

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 3 Jul 30 – Aug 17 1 in 52
2 Viking 4 Aug 3 – Aug 24 1 in 17
3 IF Odd 2 May 3 – May 6 1 in 14
4 Skeid 3 Jul 30 – Aug 17 1 in 13
5 Brann 2 Jul 30 – Aug 3 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kapp 6 Aug 24 – May 3 1 in 90
2 Asker 4 Aug 17 – Sep 7 1 in 50
3 Skeid 2 Sep 7 – Sep 28 1 in 26
4 Brann 4 Sep 7 – Oct 12 1 in 10
5 Arstad 3 May 24 – Jun 7 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lillestrom 6 Jul 30 – Sep 28 1 in 50
2 Eik Tonsberg 7 Aug 24 – May 6 1 in 38
3 Asker 6 Oct 12 – May 31 1 in 24
4 Raufoss 5 May 6 – Jun 7 1 in 21
5 Sandefjord 5 May 6 – Jun 7 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 5 May 6 – Jun 7 1 in 29
2 Asker 6 Aug 17 – Oct 5 1 in 25
3 Kapp 12 Aug 3 – May 31 1 in 20
4 Larvik Turn 5 Jul 30 – Sep 7 1 in 16
5 Greaker 6 Oct 12 – May 31 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad63.48%23.37%7.87%3.04%1.43%0.48%0.26%0.07%
Lillestrom4.71%7.96%12.01%14.42%17.01%17.88%15.35%10.66%
Eik Tonsberg3.58%10.44%17.47%19.20%16.68%14.42%10.93%7.28%
Viking24.38%38.57%18.15%9.23%5.10%2.81%1.27%0.49%
Larvik Turn20.32%20.94%18.64%15.49%11.08%7.29%4.56%1.68%
Strommen24.54%23.07%18.17%13.12%9.61%6.24%3.84%1.41%
Skeid38.05%23.31%16.34%9.84%6.53%3.41%1.81%0.71%
Raufoss1.42%3.56%6.24%8.95%13.44%17.98%24.39%24.02%
IF Odd5.98%11.18%14.05%17.39%16.97%15.27%12.07%7.09%
Sandefjord1.58%5.84%13.01%15.83%18.03%17.38%15.88%12.45%
Freidig4.52%8.41%11.79%15.77%17.41%17.37%14.83%9.90%
Brann0.61%2.42%6.89%10.25%13.70%18.43%21.85%25.85%
Greaker1.35%4.95%10.77%15.55%17.28%17.96%17.64%14.50%
Asker4.58%12.60%21.33%18.97%15.61%12.30%9.03%5.58%
Arstad0.44%1.81%4.51%7.93%12.17%16.22%23.14%33.78%
Kapp0.46%1.57%2.76%5.02%7.95%14.56%23.15%44.53%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.18%
Clear Edge
44.64%25.89%29.46%
Elo Value
Home Edge
142 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
053.15400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.54 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.37+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.6
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
63%
Fredrikstad, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.38 * Some Luck: 2.38 to 3.57 * Lucky: 3.57 to 4.76 * Wild Swing: 4.76 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.4 * Close: 2.4 to 3.59 * Off: 3.59 to 4.79 * Way Off: 4.79 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.80 points
Some Luck
02.977
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.75
Close
02.996
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
98.46%
Lillestrom
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
9.12%
Kapp
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.09
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Strong Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Frequent
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Very Frequent
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.88
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.32
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.84
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1550.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
Lillestrom — —
Viking 73.86% 1.76%
Skeid 59.43% 2.52%
Strommen 70.21% 5.25%
Larvik Turn 73.44% 6.24%
Asker 80.81% 14.61%
Eik Tonsberg 78.21% 18.21%
IF Odd 74.86% 19.16%
Freidig 70.75% 24.73%
Sandefjord 70.09% 28.33%
Greaker 66.51% 32.14%
Brann 51.69% 47.70%
Raufoss 50.17% 48.41%
Arstad 42.64% 56.92%
Kapp 31.86% 67.68%
Loser →
↓ Winner
ArstadAskerEik TonsbergFredrikstadFreidigIF OddKappLarvik TurnLillestromRaufossSkeidStrommenViking
Arstad100.0%1.00%
Asker0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Eik Tonsberg0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%75.0%16.00%75.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%56.7%30.00%56.2%16.00%
Freidig25.0%4.00%
IF Odd100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Kapp0.0%1.00%
Larvik Turn100.0%1.00%25.0%16.00%0.0%4.00%
Lillestrom25.0%4.00%
Raufoss100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Skeid0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%43.3%30.00%55.6%9.00%
Strommen100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%43.8%16.00%33.3%3.00%
Viking75.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%44.4%9.00%66.7%3.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 78.18%
Lillestrom 21.82%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadLillestrom
Fredrikstad78.2%100.00%
Lillestrom21.8%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1958-07-30 Brann L 2-3 1106 1085 49.5% 27.5% 22.9% -7.2 0
1958-07-30 @ Arstad W 3-2 1085 1106 22.9% 27.5% 49.5% +7.2 2
1958-07-30 Greaker D 3-3 1297 1129 64.0% 24.5% 11.5% -1.2 1
1958-07-30 @ Fredrikstad D 3-3 1129 1297 11.5% 24.5% 64.0% +1.2 1
1958-07-30 Skeid L 1-4 1180 1257 36.8% 27.9% 35.3% -14.6 0
1958-07-30 @ Freidig W 4-1 1257 1180 35.3% 27.9% 36.8% +14.6 2
1958-07-30 Raufoss W 1-0 1129 1108 49.7% 27.5% 22.8% +4.4 2
1958-07-30 @ Kapp L 0-1 1108 1129 22.8% 27.5% 49.7% -4.4 0
1958-07-30 Strommen W 2-0 1083 1230 27.8% 27.3% 44.9% +13.9 2
1958-07-30 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1230 1083 44.9% 27.3% 27.8% -13.9 0
1958-07-30 Larvik Turn D 0-0 1199 1215 45.1% 27.8% 27.1% -0.7 1
1958-07-30 @ IF Odd D 0-0 1215 1199 27.1% 27.8% 45.1% +0.7 1
1958-07-30 Eik Tonsberg L 0-2 1134 1126 48.0% 27.6% 24.4% -14.8 0
1958-07-30 @ Sandefjord W 2-0 1126 1134 24.4% 27.6% 48.0% +14.8 2
1958-08-03 Greaker W 2-1 1092 1131 42.2% 27.9% 29.9% +5.1 4
1958-08-03 @ Brann L 1-2 1131 1092 29.9% 27.9% 42.2% -5.1 1
1958-08-03 Asker L 0-3 1141 1173 43.0% 27.9% 29.1% -19.6 2
1958-08-03 @ Eik Tonsberg W 3-0 1173 1141 29.1% 27.9% 43.0% +19.6 2
1958-08-03 Arstad W 3-1 1296 1098 66.3% 23.7% 10.0% +3.4 3
1958-08-03 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1098 1296 10.0% 23.7% 66.3% -3.4 0
1958-08-03 Lillestrom L 2-4 1216 1097 59.7% 25.8% 14.5% -13.9 1
1958-08-03 @ Larvik Turn W 4-2 1097 1216 14.5% 25.8% 59.7% +13.9 4
1958-08-03 IF Odd D 1-1 1103 1198 34.4% 27.8% 37.8% +0.1 1
1958-08-03 @ Raufoss D 1-1 1198 1103 37.8% 27.8% 34.4% -0.1 2
1958-08-03 Kapp W 6-1 1272 1134 61.5% 25.3% 13.2% +10.0 4
1958-08-03 @ Skeid L 1-6 1134 1272 13.2% 25.3% 61.5% -10.0 2
1958-08-03 Freidig W 6-3 1216 1165 53.0% 27.1% 19.9% +7.3 2
1958-08-03 @ Strommen L 3-6 1165 1216 19.9% 27.1% 53.0% -7.3 0
1958-08-03 Sandefjord W 3-1 1249 1119 60.8% 25.5% 13.7% +4.6 2
1958-08-03 @ Viking L 1-3 1119 1249 13.7% 25.5% 60.8% -4.6 0
1958-08-17 Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1095 1122 43.7% 27.9% 28.4% +4.9 2
1958-08-17 @ Arstad L 1-2 1122 1095 28.4% 27.9% 43.7% -5.0 2
1958-08-17 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1193 1300 32.8% 27.7% 39.5% -9.5 2
1958-08-17 @ Asker W 3-1 1300 1193 39.5% 27.7% 32.8% +9.5 5
1958-08-17 Larvik Turn D 3-3 1158 1202 41.4% 27.9% 30.7% -0.2 1
1958-08-17 @ Freidig D 3-3 1202 1158 30.7% 27.9% 41.4% +0.2 2
1958-08-17 Viking L 2-4 1125 1254 29.9% 27.5% 42.5% -7.9 1
1958-08-17 @ Greaker W 4-2 1254 1125 42.5% 27.5% 29.9% +7.9 4
1958-08-17 Strommen D 1-1 1124 1223 33.8% 27.8% 38.4% +0.2 3
1958-08-17 @ Kapp D 1-1 1223 1124 38.4% 27.8% 33.8% -0.2 3
1958-08-17 Raufoss W 7-1 1111 1104 48.0% 27.6% 24.3% +20.1 6
1958-08-17 @ Lillestrom L 1-7 1104 1111 24.3% 27.6% 48.0% -20.1 1
1958-08-17 Skeid L 0-5 1198 1282 36.0% 27.9% 36.2% -27.5 2
1958-08-17 @ IF Odd W 5-0 1282 1198 36.2% 27.9% 36.0% +27.5 6
1958-08-17 Brann W 4-1 1114 1097 49.1% 27.5% 23.3% +10.4 2
1958-08-17 @ Sandefjord L 1-4 1097 1114 23.3% 27.5% 49.1% -10.4 4
1958-08-20 Viking L 0-1 1183 1262 36.7% 27.9% 35.4% -6.3 2
1958-08-20 @ Asker W 1-0 1262 1183 35.4% 27.9% 36.7% +6.3 6
1958-08-24 Asker W 4-2 1087 1177 35.1% 27.8% 37.1% +9.3 6
1958-08-24 @ Brann L 2-4 1177 1087 37.1% 27.8% 35.1% -9.3 2
1958-08-24 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1117 1309 22.7% 26.6% 50.7% +0.7 3
1958-08-24 @ Eik Tonsberg D 2-2 1309 1117 50.7% 26.6% 22.7% -0.7 6
1958-08-24 Sandefjord W 3-2 1117 1125 46.2% 27.8% 26.0% +4.4 3
1958-08-24 @ Greaker L 2-3 1125 1117 26.0% 27.8% 46.2% -4.4 2
1958-08-24 Freidig L 1-5 1124 1157 42.9% 27.9% 29.3% -21.3 3
1958-08-24 @ Kapp W 5-1 1157 1124 29.3% 27.9% 42.9% +21.3 3
1958-08-24 Raufoss D 1-1 1202 1083 59.7% 25.8% 14.5% -1.7 3
1958-08-24 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1083 1202 14.5% 25.8% 59.7% +1.7 2
1958-08-24 Lillestrom D 0-0 1309 1131 64.8% 24.3% 11.0% -2.3 7
1958-08-24 @ Skeid D 0-0 1131 1309 11.0% 24.3% 64.8% +2.3 7
1958-08-24 IF Odd W 2-0 1223 1171 53.1% 27.1% 19.8% +7.4 5
1958-08-24 @ Strommen L 0-2 1171 1223 19.8% 27.1% 53.1% -7.4 2
1958-08-24 Arstad W 5-0 1268 1100 64.0% 24.5% 11.5% +10.5 8
1958-08-24 @ Viking L 0-5 1100 1268 11.5% 24.5% 64.0% -10.5 2
1958-09-07 Greaker L 0-3 1089 1122 43.0% 27.9% 29.1% -19.6 2
1958-09-07 @ Arstad W 3-0 1122 1089 29.1% 27.9% 43.0% +19.6 5
1958-09-07 Brann W 4-0 1308 1096 67.3% 23.3% 9.4% +6.9 8
1958-09-07 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1096 1308 9.4% 23.3% 67.3% -6.9 6
1958-09-07 Lillestrom L 1-3 1179 1134 52.4% 27.2% 20.4% -13.8 3
1958-09-07 @ Freidig W 3-1 1134 1179 20.4% 27.2% 52.4% +13.8 9
1958-09-07 Kapp W 6-1 1163 1103 54.0% 27.0% 19.0% +13.9 4
1958-09-07 @ IF Odd L 1-6 1103 1163 19.0% 27.0% 54.0% -13.9 3
1958-09-07 Skeid W 3-0 1085 1307 19.9% 26.0% 54.1% +23.6 4
1958-09-07 @ Raufoss L 0-3 1307 1085 54.1% 26.0% 19.9% -23.6 7
1958-09-07 Asker W 3-1 1120 1168 41.0% 27.9% 31.1% +9.2 4
1958-09-07 @ Sandefjord L 1-3 1168 1120 31.1% 27.9% 41.0% -9.2 2
1958-09-07 Larvik Turn D 2-2 1230 1201 50.6% 27.4% 22.0% -0.8 6
1958-09-07 @ Strommen D 2-2 1201 1230 22.0% 27.4% 50.6% +0.8 4
1958-09-07 Eik Tonsberg L 1-3 1279 1117 63.4% 24.7% 11.9% -16.4 8
1958-09-07 @ Viking W 3-1 1117 1279 11.9% 24.7% 63.4% +16.4 5
1958-09-26 Arstad D 1-1 1159 1070 56.9% 26.4% 16.7% -1.5 3
1958-09-26 @ Asker D 1-1 1070 1159 16.7% 26.4% 56.9% +1.5 3
1958-09-26 Viking L 1-2 1089 1262 24.7% 26.9% 48.3% -4.4 6
1958-09-26 @ Brann W 2-1 1262 1089 48.3% 26.9% 24.7% +4.4 10
1958-09-26 Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1141 1134 48.0% 27.6% 24.3% -0.8 6
1958-09-26 @ Greaker D 1-1 1134 1141 24.3% 27.6% 48.0% +0.8 6
1958-09-26 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1130 1315 23.4% 26.7% 49.9% -12.2 4
1958-09-26 @ Sandefjord W 3-0 1315 1130 49.9% 26.7% 23.4% +12.2 10
1958-09-28 Raufoss W 2-0 1165 1109 53.5% 27.0% 19.4% +7.3 5
1958-09-28 @ Freidig L 0-2 1109 1165 19.4% 27.0% 53.5% -7.3 4
1958-09-28 Larvik Turn L 0-7 1089 1201 32.0% 27.7% 40.3% -34.6 3
1958-09-28 @ Kapp W 7-0 1201 1089 40.3% 27.7% 32.0% +34.7 6
1958-09-28 IF Odd W 6-1 1147 1177 43.3% 27.9% 28.8% +19.4 11
1958-09-28 @ Lillestrom L 1-6 1177 1147 28.8% 27.9% 43.3% -19.3 4
1958-09-28 Strommen L 0-3 1284 1230 53.3% 27.1% 19.6% -23.5 7
1958-09-28 @ Skeid W 3-0 1230 1284 19.6% 27.1% 53.3% +23.5 8
1958-10-05 Sandefjord D 2-2 1071 1117 41.2% 27.9% 30.9% -0.3 4
1958-10-05 @ Arstad D 2-2 1117 1071 30.9% 27.9% 41.2% +0.3 5
1958-10-05 Greaker L 1-3 1157 1141 49.1% 27.5% 23.4% -13.0 3
1958-10-05 @ Asker W 3-1 1141 1157 23.4% 27.5% 49.1% +13.1 8
1958-10-05 Brann W 6-0 1135 1085 52.8% 27.1% 20.0% +20.8 8
1958-10-05 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-6 1085 1135 20.0% 27.1% 52.8% -20.8 6
1958-10-05 Freidig W 4-2 1158 1172 45.3% 27.8% 26.9% +7.3 6
1958-10-05 @ IF Odd L 2-4 1172 1158 26.9% 27.8% 45.3% -7.3 5
1958-10-05 Strommen D 1-1 1101 1253 27.1% 27.3% 45.6% +0.6 5
1958-10-05 @ Raufoss D 1-1 1253 1101 45.6% 27.3% 27.1% -0.6 9
1958-10-12 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1064 1327 16.5% 25.0% 58.5% -3.1 6
1958-10-12 @ Brann W 2-1 1327 1064 58.5% 25.0% 16.5% +3.1 12
1958-10-12 Sandefjord W 2-0 1155 1118 51.5% 27.3% 21.2% +7.8 10
1958-10-12 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-2 1118 1155 21.2% 27.3% 51.5% -7.8 5
1958-10-12 Arstad L 0-2 1154 1071 56.3% 26.6% 17.2% -17.0 8
1958-10-12 @ Greaker W 2-0 1071 1154 17.2% 26.6% 56.3% +17.0 6
1958-10-12 IF Odd W 5-1 1236 1165 55.1% 26.8% 18.1% +10.9 8
1958-10-12 @ Larvik Turn L 1-5 1165 1236 18.1% 26.8% 55.1% -10.9 6
1958-10-12 Kapp W 1-0 1102 1054 52.7% 27.2% 20.2% +4.0 7
1958-10-12 @ Raufoss L 0-1 1054 1102 20.2% 27.2% 52.7% -4.0 3
1958-10-12 Freidig W 4-0 1260 1165 57.5% 26.3% 16.2% +11.8 9
1958-10-12 @ Skeid L 0-4 1165 1260 16.2% 26.3% 57.5% -11.8 5
1958-10-12 Lillestrom W 5-1 1252 1167 56.6% 26.5% 16.9% +10.2 11
1958-10-12 @ Strommen L 1-5 1167 1252 16.9% 26.5% 56.6% -10.2 11
1958-10-12 Asker L 1-2 1267 1144 60.1% 25.7% 14.2% -9.0 10
1958-10-12 @ Viking W 2-1 1144 1267 14.2% 25.7% 60.1% +9.0 5
1958-10-19 Viking D 3-3 1331 1258 55.3% 26.7% 18.0% -0.8 13
1958-10-19 @ Fredrikstad D 3-3 1258 1331 18.0% 26.7% 55.3% +0.8 11
1959-04-26 Skeid L 1-4 1247 1272 44.0% 27.9% 28.2% -16.8 8
1959-04-26 @ Larvik Turn W 4-1 1272 1247 28.2% 27.9% 44.0% +16.8 11
1959-04-26 Kapp W 3-1 1156 1050 58.6% 26.1% 15.3% +5.1 13
1959-04-26 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1050 1156 15.3% 26.1% 58.6% -5.1 3
1959-05-03 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1088 1330 18.2% 25.5% 56.3% -9.8 6
1959-05-03 @ Arstad W 3-0 1330 1088 56.3% 25.5% 18.2% +9.8 15
1959-05-03 Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1153 1163 45.9% 27.8% 26.4% -0.7 6
1959-05-03 @ Asker D 0-0 1163 1153 26.4% 27.8% 45.9% +0.7 11
1959-05-03 Brann L 0-4 1137 1061 55.6% 26.7% 17.7% -31.9 8
1959-05-03 @ Greaker W 4-0 1061 1137 17.7% 26.7% 55.6% +31.9 8
1959-05-03 Skeid L 1-2 1045 1289 18.0% 25.5% 56.5% -3.3 3
1959-05-03 @ Kapp W 2-1 1289 1045 56.5% 25.5% 18.0% +3.3 13
1959-05-03 Strommen W 3-1 1230 1263 43.0% 27.9% 29.1% +8.7 10
1959-05-03 @ Larvik Turn L 1-3 1263 1230 29.1% 27.9% 43.0% -8.7 11
1959-05-03 Freidig W 3-2 1162 1153 48.1% 27.6% 24.2% +4.1 15
1959-05-03 @ Lillestrom L 2-3 1153 1162 24.2% 27.6% 48.1% -4.1 5
1959-05-03 Raufoss W 2-1 1154 1106 52.7% 27.1% 20.2% +3.8 8
1959-05-03 @ IF Odd L 1-2 1106 1154 20.2% 27.1% 52.7% -3.8 7
1959-05-03 Viking L 0-1 1110 1259 27.5% 27.3% 45.2% -5.1 5
1959-05-03 @ Sandefjord W 1-0 1259 1110 45.2% 27.3% 27.5% +5.1 13
1959-05-06 Sandefjord D 1-1 1093 1105 45.7% 27.8% 26.6% -0.6 9
1959-05-06 @ Brann D 1-1 1105 1093 26.6% 27.8% 45.7% +0.7 6
1959-05-06 Arstad W 4-0 1164 1078 56.6% 26.5% 16.9% +12.3 13
1959-05-06 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-4 1078 1164 16.9% 26.5% 56.6% -12.3 6
1959-05-06 Asker D 1-1 1340 1152 65.5% 24.0% 10.5% -2.1 16
1959-05-06 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1152 1340 10.5% 24.0% 65.5% +2.1 7
1959-05-06 Freidig D 0-0 1239 1149 57.0% 26.4% 16.6% -1.7 11
1959-05-06 @ Larvik Turn D 0-0 1149 1239 16.6% 26.4% 57.0% +1.7 6
1959-05-06 Lillestrom W 5-2 1102 1166 38.8% 27.9% 33.3% +11.8 9
1959-05-06 @ Raufoss L 2-5 1166 1102 33.3% 27.9% 38.8% -11.8 15
1959-05-06 IF Odd L 0-3 1292 1158 61.1% 25.4% 13.5% -26.6 13
1959-05-06 @ Skeid W 3-0 1158 1292 13.5% 25.4% 61.1% +26.6 10
1959-05-06 Kapp D 2-2 1254 1042 67.4% 23.2% 9.4% -1.7 12
1959-05-06 @ Strommen D 2-2 1042 1254 9.4% 23.2% 67.4% +1.7 4
1959-05-06 Greaker D 1-1 1264 1105 63.2% 24.8% 12.0% -1.9 14
1959-05-06 @ Viking D 1-1 1105 1264 12.0% 24.8% 63.2% +1.9 9
1959-05-10 Viking W 2-1 1066 1262 22.4% 26.5% 51.1% +7.7 8
1959-05-10 @ Arstad L 1-2 1262 1066 51.1% 26.5% 22.4% -7.7 14
1959-05-10 Brann D 0-0 1154 1092 54.2% 26.9% 18.9% -1.4 8
1959-05-10 @ Asker D 0-0 1092 1154 18.9% 26.9% 54.2% +1.4 10
1959-05-10 Eik Tonsberg W 4-0 1337 1176 63.4% 24.7% 11.9% +8.8 18
1959-05-10 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1176 1337 11.9% 24.7% 63.4% -8.8 13
1959-05-10 Kapp W 8-3 1151 1043 58.7% 26.1% 15.3% +8.6 8
1959-05-10 @ Freidig L 3-8 1043 1151 15.3% 26.1% 58.7% -8.6 4
1959-05-10 Skeid W 1-0 1154 1265 32.2% 27.7% 40.2% +6.8 17
1959-05-10 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1265 1154 40.2% 27.7% 32.2% -6.8 13
1959-05-10 Strommen D 0-0 1185 1252 38.2% 27.9% 33.9% -0.2 11
1959-05-10 @ IF Odd D 0-0 1252 1185 33.9% 27.9% 38.2% +0.2 13
1959-05-10 Larvik Turn W 5-1 1114 1237 30.6% 27.6% 41.8% +20.8 11
1959-05-10 @ Raufoss L 1-5 1237 1114 41.8% 27.6% 30.6% -20.8 11
1959-05-10 Greaker W 2-0 1105 1107 46.9% 27.7% 25.4% +9.1 8
1959-05-10 @ Sandefjord L 0-2 1107 1105 25.4% 27.7% 46.9% -9.1 9
1959-05-24 Sandefjord D 1-1 1153 1114 51.6% 27.3% 21.1% -1.1 9
1959-05-24 @ Asker D 1-1 1114 1153 21.1% 27.3% 51.6% +1.1 9
1959-05-24 Arstad W 3-0 1094 1074 49.5% 27.5% 23.0% +12.2 12
1959-05-24 @ Brann L 0-3 1074 1094 23.0% 27.5% 49.5% -12.2 8
1959-05-24 Viking D 1-1 1167 1254 35.6% 27.9% 36.6% +0.0 14
1959-05-24 @ Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1254 1167 36.6% 27.9% 35.6% -0.0 15
1959-05-24 Strommen W 3-1 1159 1252 34.6% 27.8% 37.5% +10.5 10
1959-05-24 @ Freidig L 1-3 1252 1159 37.5% 27.8% 34.6% -10.5 13
1959-05-24 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1098 1346 17.6% 25.3% 57.0% +1.4 10
1959-05-24 @ Greaker D 1-1 1346 1098 57.0% 25.3% 17.6% -1.4 19
1959-05-24 IF Odd L 0-2 1035 1185 27.4% 27.3% 45.4% -9.5 4
1959-05-24 @ Kapp W 2-0 1185 1035 45.4% 27.3% 27.4% +9.5 13
1959-05-24 Larvik Turn L 0-1 1161 1216 39.9% 27.9% 32.2% -6.7 17
1959-05-24 @ Lillestrom W 1-0 1216 1161 32.2% 27.9% 39.9% +6.7 13
1959-05-24 Raufoss D 0-0 1259 1135 60.2% 25.7% 14.1% -1.9 14
1959-05-24 @ Skeid D 0-0 1135 1259 14.1% 25.7% 60.2% +1.9 12
1959-05-31 Asker L 0-5 1062 1152 35.0% 27.8% 37.1% -27.0 8
1959-05-31 @ Arstad W 5-0 1152 1062 37.1% 27.8% 35.0% +26.9 11
1959-05-31 Greaker W 2-0 1168 1099 54.8% 26.8% 18.3% +7.0 16
1959-05-31 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-2 1099 1168 18.3% 26.8% 54.8% -6.9 10
1959-05-31 Sandefjord D 1-1 1345 1115 68.6% 22.7% 8.7% -2.3 20
1959-05-31 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1115 1345 8.7% 22.7% 68.6% +2.3 10
1959-05-31 Kapp W 10-2 1223 1025 66.3% 23.7% 10.0% +9.6 15
1959-05-31 @ Larvik Turn L 2-10 1025 1223 10.0% 23.7% 66.3% -9.6 4
1959-05-31 Lillestrom L 1-2 1194 1154 51.8% 27.3% 20.9% -7.9 13
1959-05-31 @ IF Odd W 2-1 1154 1194 20.9% 27.3% 51.8% +7.9 19
1959-05-31 Freidig W 4-0 1137 1170 42.9% 27.9% 29.2% +19.2 14
1959-05-31 @ Raufoss L 0-4 1170 1137 29.2% 27.9% 42.9% -19.2 10
1959-05-31 Skeid W 2-1 1242 1257 45.3% 27.8% 26.9% +4.8 15
1959-05-31 @ Strommen L 1-2 1257 1242 26.9% 27.8% 45.3% -4.7 14
1959-05-31 Brann W 1-0 1254 1106 62.3% 25.1% 12.6% +2.6 17
1959-05-31 @ Viking L 0-1 1106 1254 12.6% 25.1% 62.3% -2.6 12
1959-06-07 Eik Tonsberg L 1-2 1103 1174 37.8% 27.9% 34.4% -6.1 12
1959-06-07 @ Brann W 2-1 1174 1103 34.4% 27.9% 37.8% +6.1 18
1959-06-07 IF Odd W 4-2 1151 1186 42.6% 27.9% 29.5% +7.9 12
1959-06-07 @ Freidig L 2-4 1186 1151 29.5% 27.9% 42.6% -7.9 13
1959-06-07 Asker W 1-0 1092 1179 35.5% 27.9% 36.6% +6.3 12
1959-06-07 @ Greaker L 0-1 1179 1092 36.6% 27.9% 35.5% -6.3 11
1959-06-07 Lillestrom W 5-2 1016 1162 27.8% 27.3% 44.9% +14.7 6
1959-06-07 @ Kapp L 2-5 1162 1016 44.9% 27.3% 27.8% -14.7 19
1959-06-07 Arstad W 2-0 1118 1035 56.3% 26.6% 17.1% +6.5 12
1959-06-07 @ Sandefjord L 0-2 1035 1118 17.1% 26.6% 56.3% -6.5 8
1959-06-07 Larvik Turn D 2-2 1252 1233 49.4% 27.5% 23.1% -0.7 15
1959-06-07 @ Skeid D 2-2 1233 1252 23.1% 27.5% 49.4% +0.7 16
1959-06-07 Raufoss D 1-1 1247 1156 57.1% 26.4% 16.5% -1.5 16
1959-06-07 @ Strommen D 1-1 1156 1247 16.5% 26.4% 57.1% +1.5 15
1959-06-07 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1257 1342 35.7% 27.9% 36.5% -6.2 17
1959-06-07 @ Viking W 1-0 1342 1257 36.5% 27.9% 35.7% +6.2 22

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1959-06-21 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1147 1349 21.8% 26.4% 51.8% +0.8 0-0-1
1959-06-21 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1349 1147 51.8% 26.4% 21.8% -0.8 0-0-1
1959-08-05 Fredrikstad W 4-1 1148 1348 21.9% 26.4% 51.6% +19.1 1-0-1
1959-08-05 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1348 1148 51.6% 26.4% 21.9% -19.1 0-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1958-09-07 11.86% Eik Tonsberg 1117 3 @ Viking 1279 1
2 1959-05-06 13.48% IF Odd 1158 3 @ Skeid 1292 0
3 1958-10-12 14.21% Asker 1144 2 @ Viking 1267 1
4 1958-08-03 14.48% Lillestrom 1097 4 @ Larvik Turn 1216 2
5 1958-10-12 17.15% Arstad 1071 2 @ Greaker 1154 0
6 1959-05-03 17.74% Brann 1061 4 @ Greaker 1137 0
7 1958-09-28 19.62% Strommen 1230 3 @ Skeid 1284 0
8 1958-09-07 19.88% @ Raufoss 1085 3 Skeid 1307 0
9 1958-09-07 20.45% Lillestrom 1134 3 @ Freidig 1179 1
10 1959-05-31 20.94% Lillestrom 1154 2 @ IF Odd 1194 1
11 1959-08-05 * 21.95% @ Lillestrom 1148 4 Fredrikstad 1348 1
12 1959-05-10 22.36% @ Arstad 1066 2 Viking 1262 1
13 1958-07-30 22.95% Brann 1085 3 @ Arstad 1106 2
14 1958-10-05 23.36% Greaker 1141 3 @ Asker 1157 1
15 1958-07-30 24.37% Eik Tonsberg 1126 2 @ Sandefjord 1134 0
16 1959-06-07 27.77% @ Kapp 1016 5 Lillestrom 1162 2
17 1958-07-30 27.78% @ Lillestrom 1083 2 Strommen 1230 0
18 1959-04-26 28.19% Skeid 1272 4 @ Larvik Turn 1247 1
19 1958-08-03 29.08% Asker 1173 3 @ Eik Tonsberg 1141 0
20 1958-09-07 29.14% Greaker 1122 3 @ Arstad 1089 0
21 1958-08-24 29.27% Freidig 1157 5 @ Kapp 1124 1
22 1959-05-10 30.65% @ Raufoss 1114 5 Larvik Turn 1237 1
23 1959-05-10 32.16% @ Lillestrom 1154 1 Skeid 1265 0
24 1959-05-24 32.20% Larvik Turn 1216 1 @ Lillestrom 1161 0
25 1959-06-07 34.35% Eik Tonsberg 1174 2 @ Brann 1103 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1958-09-28 34.65 Larvik Turn 7 1201 40.31% @ Kapp 0 1089 32.01% 27.68%
2 1959-05-03 31.88 Brann 4 1061 17.74% @ Greaker 0 1137 55.56% 26.70%
3 1958-08-17 27.48 Skeid 5 1282 36.18% @ IF Odd 0 1198 35.96% 27.86%
4 1959-05-31 26.96 Asker 5 1152 37.15% @ Arstad 0 1062 35.03% 27.83%
5 1959-05-06 26.59 IF Odd 3 1158 13.48% @ Skeid 0 1292 61.08% 25.44%
6 1958-09-07 23.61 @ Raufoss 3 1085 19.88% Skeid 0 1307 54.15% 25.97%
7 1958-09-28 23.52 Strommen 3 1230 19.62% @ Skeid 0 1284 53.33% 27.06%
8 1958-08-24 21.26 Freidig 5 1157 29.27% @ Kapp 1 1124 42.85% 27.88%
9 1958-10-05 20.81 @ Eik Tonsberg 6 1135 52.84% Brann 0 1085 20.04% 27.12%
10 1959-05-10 20.76 @ Raufoss 5 1114 30.65% Larvik Turn 1 1237 41.77% 27.58%
11 1958-08-17 20.10 @ Lillestrom 7 1111 48.04% Raufoss 1 1104 24.33% 27.63%
12 1958-08-03 19.59 Asker 3 1173 29.08% @ Eik Tonsberg 0 1141 43.05% 27.88%
13 1958-09-07 19.58 Greaker 3 1122 29.14% @ Arstad 0 1089 42.98% 27.88%
14 1958-09-28 19.35 @ Lillestrom 6 1147 43.33% IF Odd 1 1177 28.80% 27.87%
15 1959-05-31 19.15 @ Raufoss 4 1137 42.92% Freidig 0 1170 29.20% 27.88%
16 1959-08-05 * 19.11 @ Lillestrom 4 1148 21.95% Fredrikstad 1 1348 51.62% 26.43%
17 1958-10-12 17.01 Arstad 2 1071 17.15% @ Greaker 0 1154 56.28% 26.56%
18 1959-04-26 16.82 Skeid 4 1272 28.19% @ Larvik Turn 1 1247 43.96% 27.85%
19 1958-09-07 16.39 Eik Tonsberg 3 1117 11.86% @ Viking 1 1279 63.41% 24.73%
20 1958-07-30 14.77 Eik Tonsberg 2 1126 24.37% @ Sandefjord 0 1134 48.00% 27.63%
21 1959-06-07 14.75 @ Kapp 5 1016 27.77% Lillestrom 2 1162 44.91% 27.32%
22 1958-07-30 14.64 Skeid 4 1257 35.31% @ Freidig 1 1180 36.81% 27.88%
23 1958-07-30 13.90 @ Lillestrom 2 1083 27.78% Strommen 0 1230 44.90% 27.32%
24 1958-08-03 13.90 Lillestrom 4 1097 14.48% @ Larvik Turn 2 1216 59.72% 25.80%
25 1958-09-07 13.88 @ IF Odd 6 1163 54.03% Kapp 1 1103 19.02% 26.95%