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1957-58 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Skeid

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Larvik Turn

4.06 points above expected

21 points · 16.94 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sarpsborg 08

5.71 points below expected

1 points · 6.71 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skeid 14 11 1 2 23 41 13 +28 19.65 +3.35
2 Fredrikstad 14 9 3 2 21 45 18 +27 18.84 +2.16
3 Viking 14 9 3 2 21 32 14 +18 17.27 +3.73
4 Larvik Turn 14 9 3 2 21 36 22 +14 16.94 +4.06
5 Strommen 14 8 2 4 18 29 16 +13 17.64 +0.36
6 Asker 14 6 5 3 17 36 26 +10 15.43 +1.57
7 Brann 14 8 1 5 17 26 28 -2 15.08 +1.92
8 Sandefjord 14 5 5 4 15 16 16 0 14.41 +0.59
9 Raufoss 14 7 0 7 14 35 30 +5 14.13 -0.13
10 IF Odd 14 7 0 7 14 30 26 +4 13.41 +0.59
11 Lillestrom 14 6 1 7 13 34 32 +2 14.29 -1.29
12 Eik Tonsberg 14 5 3 6 13 22 27 -5 12.15 +0.85
13 Molde 14 1 5 8 7 18 38 -20 9.63 -2.63
14 Frigg Oslo 14 3 0 11 6 20 38 -18 10.81 -4.81
15 Steinkjer 14 1 1 12 3 17 59 -42 7.61 -4.61
16 Sarpsborg 08 14 0 1 13 1 10 44 -34 6.71 -5.71

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Viking 2
Skeid 0

Sim: 7.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1503 21 18.84 +2.16 80.8% 7 14 17 19 21 24 28
Skeid 1443 23 19.65 +3.35 91.6% 9 15 18 20 22 24 28
Viking 1437 21 17.27 +3.73 91.5% 2 12 15 17 19 22 28
Larvik Turn 1403 21 16.94 +4.06 92.6% 5 12 15 17 19 22 27
Strommen 1400 18 17.64 +0.36 59.9% 7 12 16 18 20 23 28
IF Odd 1357 14 13.41 +0.59 63.6% 3 8 11 13 16 19 24
Asker 1324 17 15.43 +1.57 75.0% 5 10 13 15 18 20 27
Sandefjord 1268 15 14.41 +0.59 64.2% 4 9 12 14 16 19 24
Eik Tonsberg 1257 13 12.15 +0.85 66.5% 2 7 10 12 14 17 24
Raufoss 1224 14 14.13 -0.13 55.1% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Brann 1195 17 15.08 +1.92 77.7% 4 10 13 15 17 20 26
Lillestrom 1188 13 14.29 -1.29 39.3% 4 9 12 14 16 19 25
Frigg Oslo 1014 6 10.81 -4.81 7.9% 1 6 9 11 13 16 24
Molde 1003 7 9.63 -2.63 23.8% 0 5 8 10 12 15 21
Sarpsborg 08 909 1 6.71 -5.71 1.4% 0 3 5 7 8 11 18
Steinkjer 905 3 7.61 -4.61 6.7% 0 3 6 8 9 12 19

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ASK BRA ET FRE FO IO LT LIL MOL RAU SAN S0 SKE STE STR VIK
Asker —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.88
1-0-1
1.93
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.58
0-2-0
4.28
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.22
2-0-0
4.01
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Brann
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.78
1-0-1
3.17
0-1-1
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.73
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.18
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.57
Eik Tonsberg
1-1-0
1.80
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.07
2-0-0
3.94
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.37
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.34
1-0-1
3.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Fredrikstad
1-0-1
3.75
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.64
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.08
1-1-0
4.65
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.87
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.42
2-0-0
4.82
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Frigg Oslo
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
2.76
0-0-2
1.18
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.96
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.55
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
1.88
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.93
 —
2-0-0
1.91
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.66
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
1.96
Larvik Turn
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.18
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.51
0-0-2
3.78
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.40
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.49
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.47
1-1-0
2.53
Lillestrom
0-0-2
3.10
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.61
0-1-1
1.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.15
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.05
2-0-0
4.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Molde
0-2-0
1.40
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.74
0-1-1
1.04
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.53
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.12
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.18
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Raufoss
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.95
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.72
1-0-1
2.90
0-0-2
2.29
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.13
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
1.81
0-0-2
2.29
Sandefjord
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.31
0-1-1
1.82
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
3.56
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.26
2-0-0
4.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg 08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
1.19
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
0.86
0-1-1
0.67
Skeid
1-1-0
3.46
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.35
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
4.50
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.43
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
4.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Steinkjer
0-0-2
1.67
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.18
0-0-2
0.87
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.24
0-1-1
2.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
0.94
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Strommen
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.10
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.88
2-0-0
3.41
0-1-1
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.88
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.84
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
3.05
Viking
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.80
2-0-0
3.72
0-1-1
3.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.39
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
5.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.63
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.68 +5.5
Allowed 0.81 -4.9
Differential 0.93 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%3.57%4.46%1.79%2.68%3.12%20.09%
13.57%5.36%7.14%6.25%1.79%2.23%26.34%
24.46%7.14%1.79%2.68%1.79%4.46%22.32%
31.79%6.25%2.68%3.57%0.45%—14.73%
42.68%1.79%1.79%0.45%——6.70%
5+3.12%2.23%4.46%———9.82%
Total20.09%26.34%22.32%14.73%6.70%9.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.00 +0.00
SD 1.76 1.76 2.77
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%———7.14%—14.29%
1—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+—7.14%21.43%———28.57%
Total7.14%35.71%28.57%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.57 1.86 +0.71
SD 2.14 1.10 2.49
CV 0.83 0.59 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%———14.29%21.43%
114.29%——7.14%——21.43%
2—14.29%—7.14%——21.43%
3—7.14%14.29%7.14%——28.57%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total21.43%28.57%14.29%21.43%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.00 -0.14
SD 1.46 1.84 2.80
CV 0.79 0.92 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—7.14%—7.14%—28.57%
1—7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%—28.57%
27.14%————7.14%14.29%
3—14.29%————14.29%
47.14%—7.14%———14.29%
5+———————
Total28.57%21.43%21.43%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.93 -0.36
SD 1.45 2.02 2.62
CV 0.92 1.05 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
2—14.29%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
5+14.29%7.14%————21.43%
Total28.57%42.86%14.29%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.21 1.29 +1.93
SD 2.72 1.38 3.34
CV 0.85 1.08 —
Max 9 5 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%21.43%7.14%——35.71%
1————14.29%7.14%21.43%
27.14%——14.29%—7.14%28.57%
3———————
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total7.14%21.43%21.43%21.43%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 2.71 -1.29
SD 1.55 1.86 2.61
CV 1.09 0.68 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
17.14%—14.29%7.14%—7.14%35.71%
27.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%—7.14%———14.29%
Total28.57%14.29%28.57%14.29%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.86 +0.29
SD 2.07 1.70 3.17
CV 0.97 0.92 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
1—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
2—14.29%————14.29%
37.14%7.14%21.43%14.29%——50.00%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total14.29%35.71%28.57%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.57 1.57 +1.00
SD 1.28 1.02 1.62
CV 0.50 0.65 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
1——7.14%14.29%——21.43%
2——7.14%——14.29%21.43%
37.14%14.29%——7.14%—28.57%
47.14%—7.14%———14.29%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total14.29%21.43%28.57%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.29 +0.14
SD 1.40 1.77 2.66
CV 0.58 0.78 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%7.14%14.29%—28.57%
1—21.43%7.14%14.29%—7.14%50.00%
2———————
3———14.29%——14.29%
4———————
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total—21.43%21.43%35.71%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.71 -1.43
SD 1.44 1.38 2.14
CV 1.12 0.51 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
1——14.29%7.14%——21.43%
27.14%7.14%——7.14%7.14%28.57%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
5+——14.29%———14.29%
Total7.14%21.43%42.86%14.29%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.14 +0.36
SD 2.10 1.29 2.59
CV 0.84 0.60 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
028.57%7.14%——7.14%—42.86%
17.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
2—14.29%————14.29%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total35.71%35.71%14.29%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.14 +0.00
SD 1.46 1.23 1.71
CV 1.28 1.08 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%14.29%—7.14%14.29%50.00%
1—7.14%14.29%—7.14%—28.57%
2———7.14%7.14%7.14%21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—21.43%28.57%7.14%21.43%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 3.14 -2.43
SD 0.83 1.92 1.87
CV 1.16 0.61 —
Max 2 7 +0
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——14.29%———14.29%
27.14%14.29%7.14%———28.57%
37.14%21.43%————28.57%
421.43%—————21.43%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total35.71%35.71%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.93 0.93 +2.00
SD 1.54 0.83 1.88
CV 0.53 0.89 —
Max 7 2 +5
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%—14.29%28.57%
1———14.29%—14.29%28.57%
27.14%———14.29%14.29%35.71%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%7.14%—28.57%14.29%42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 4.21 -3.00
SD 0.97 2.42 2.88
CV 0.80 0.58 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
114.29%7.14%14.29%———35.71%
214.29%7.14%—7.14%—7.14%35.71%
3———————
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+14.29%—————14.29%
Total50.00%21.43%14.29%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 1.14 +0.93
SD 1.54 1.70 2.43
CV 0.74 1.49 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
214.29%14.29%————28.57%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total35.71%35.71%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.00 +1.29
SD 1.77 0.96 2.02
CV 0.78 0.96 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Larvik Turn 21 16.94 +4.06
2 Viking 21 17.27 +3.73
3 Skeid 23 19.65 +3.35
4 Fredrikstad 21 18.84 +2.16
5 Brann 17 15.08 +1.92

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sarpsborg 08 1 6.71 -5.71
2 Frigg Oslo 6 10.81 -4.81
3 Steinkjer 3 7.61 -4.61
4 Molde 7 9.63 -2.63
5 Lillestrom 13 14.29 -1.29

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 5 Jul 28 – Sep 15 1 in 50
2 Fredrikstad 7 May 4 – Jun 8 1 in 49
3 Skeid 9 Aug 25 – May 18 1 in 41
4 Larvik Turn 5 Sep 15 – May 4 1 in 23
5 Strommen 5 Aug 25 – Oct 27 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 08 11 Jul 28 – May 15 1 in 132
2 Strommen 2 May 4 – May 11 1 in 49
3 Frigg Oslo 6 Aug 25 – May 4 1 in 32
4 Skeid 2 Jun 1 – Jun 8 1 in 28
5 Raufoss 3 Oct 6 – May 4 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 12 Jul 28 – May 18 1 in 29
2 Larvik Turn 6 Aug 25 – May 4 1 in 13
3 Molde 2 Sep 15 – Sep 29 1 in 11
4 Asker 5 Jul 31 – Sep 15 1 in 10
5 Lillestrom 4 Aug 14 – Sep 29 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Molde 11 Aug 25 – Jun 8 1 in 21
2 Asker 5 May 7 – Jun 1 1 in 18
3 Viking 3 May 18 – Jun 8 1 in 14
4 Sarpsborg 08 14 Jul 28 – Jun 8 1 in 14
5 Fredrikstad 3 Sep 15 – Oct 27 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Skeid50.28%30.15%11.32%5.26%2.16%0.72%0.10%0.01%
Fredrikstad36.83%33.20%16.73%7.66%3.75%1.47%0.34%0.02%
Viking29.32%23.60%18.33%13.07%8.50%4.92%2.05%0.21%
Larvik Turn23.91%22.16%19.46%14.77%10.68%6.22%2.54%0.26%
Strommen30.41%24.15%18.39%12.37%8.75%4.23%1.56%0.14%
Asker6.06%15.47%26.65%21.76%16.58%9.03%3.57%0.88%
Brann7.98%12.58%16.01%19.37%18.95%15.84%8.05%1.22%
Sandefjord3.01%9.16%17.69%23.57%22.29%16.10%6.61%1.57%
Raufoss4.47%9.42%13.86%18.57%20.93%19.92%10.90%1.93%
IF Odd3.40%6.69%10.63%15.84%20.52%23.97%15.58%3.37%
Lillestrom2.64%8.55%18.28%23.75%23.19%15.42%6.55%1.62%
Eik Tonsberg1.09%2.95%7.39%12.98%19.84%29.52%18.61%7.62%
Molde0.08%0.43%1.66%3.92%8.72%19.43%41.43%24.33%
Frigg Oslo0.49%1.39%3.23%5.81%10.70%21.05%43.88%13.45%
Steinkjer0.01%0.09%0.28%1.10%3.47%8.31%22.79%63.95%
Sarpsborg 080.02%0.01%0.09%0.20%0.97%3.85%15.44%79.42%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.75%
Clear Edge
51.79%15.18%33.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge
131 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
065.92400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.74 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.50+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.3
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
Skeid, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.42 * Some Luck: 2.42 to 3.63 * Lucky: 3.63 to 4.84 * Wild Swing: 4.84 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.92 * Close: 1.92 to 2.88 * Off: 2.88 to 3.84 * Way Off: 3.84 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.95 points
Some Luck
03.038
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.62
Pinpoint
02.405
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
92.65%
Larvik Turn
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.37%
Sarpsborg 08
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.78
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Frequent
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.03
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.83
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.36
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Skeid — —
Viking — —
Fredrikstad 62.81% 0.36%
Strommen 67.89% 1.70%
Larvik Turn 73.29% 2.80%
Asker 89.49% 4.45%
Lillestrom 89.19% 8.17%
Sandefjord 88.81% 8.18%
Brann 82.75% 9.27%
Raufoss 82.70% 12.83%
IF Odd 77.65% 18.95%
Eik Tonsberg 72.68% 26.23%
Frigg Oslo 42.18% 57.33%
Molde 34.16% 65.76%
Steinkjer 13.25% 86.74%
Sarpsborg 08 5.12% 94.86%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AskerBrannFredrikstadIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromRaufossSandefjordSkeidStrommenViking
Asker50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%
Brann25.0%4.00%0.0%2.00%
Fredrikstad75.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%70.0%10.00%50.0%2.00%70.0%20.00%75.0%8.00%
IF Odd0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Larvik Turn50.0%2.00%30.0%10.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%10.00%
Lillestrom0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Raufoss50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Sandefjord100.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%
Skeid100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%45.5%11.00%61.1%18.00%
Strommen30.0%20.00%25.0%4.00%54.5%11.00%
Viking50.0%2.00%25.0%8.00%100.0%1.00%38.9%18.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Skeid 63.52%
Viking 36.48%
Loser →
↓ Winner
SkeidViking
Skeid63.5%100.00%
Viking36.5%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1957-07-28 Strommen W 3-2 1273 1305 51.8% 16.0% 32.3% +17.3 2
1957-07-28 @ Brann L 2-3 1305 1273 32.3% 16.0% 51.8% -17.3 0
1957-07-28 Steinkjer W 4-2 1199 1162 60.0% 15.9% 24.1% +21.8 2
1957-07-28 @ Eik Tonsberg L 2-4 1162 1199 24.1% 15.9% 60.0% -21.8 0
1957-07-28 IF Odd W 5-1 1201 1248 49.7% 16.0% 34.3% +60.7 2
1957-07-28 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-5 1248 1201 34.3% 16.0% 49.7% -60.7 0
1957-07-28 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-0 1287 1151 69.1% 15.8% 15.1% +35.0 2
1957-07-28 @ Larvik Turn L 0-4 1151 1287 15.1% 15.8% 69.1% -35.0 0
1957-07-28 Skeid L 1-3 1209 1275 47.2% 16.0% 36.9% -43.6 0
1957-07-28 @ Lillestrom W 3-1 1275 1209 36.9% 16.0% 47.2% +43.6 2
1957-07-28 Sandefjord D 1-1 1199 1281 45.1% 16.0% 39.0% -0.8 1
1957-07-28 @ Molde D 1-1 1281 1199 39.0% 16.0% 45.1% +0.8 1
1957-07-28 Viking L 1-2 1199 1230 51.9% 16.0% 32.1% -27.4 0
1957-07-28 @ Raufoss W 2-1 1230 1199 32.1% 16.0% 51.9% +27.5 2
1957-07-31 Fredrikstad W 5-2 1232 1382 35.4% 15.9% 48.6% +54.8 2
1957-07-31 @ Asker L 2-5 1382 1232 48.6% 15.9% 35.4% -54.8 0
1957-08-11 Eik Tonsberg W 4-1 1327 1221 66.6% 15.8% 17.5% +25.8 2
1957-08-11 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1221 1327 17.5% 15.8% 66.6% -25.8 2
1957-08-11 Raufoss L 2-3 1188 1172 57.6% 15.9% 26.5% -28.7 0
1957-08-11 @ IF Odd W 3-2 1172 1188 26.5% 15.9% 57.6% +28.7 2
1957-08-11 Lillestrom W 5-2 1281 1165 67.5% 15.8% 16.6% +21.3 3
1957-08-11 @ Sandefjord L 2-5 1165 1281 16.6% 15.8% 67.5% -21.3 0
1957-08-11 Brann L 1-2 1116 1290 32.2% 15.9% 51.8% -18.2 0
1957-08-11 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1290 1116 51.8% 15.9% 32.2% +18.2 4
1957-08-11 Molde W 2-0 1318 1199 67.8% 15.8% 16.4% +19.8 4
1957-08-11 @ Skeid L 0-2 1199 1318 16.4% 15.8% 67.8% -19.8 1
1957-08-11 Asker L 2-5 1140 1287 35.9% 15.9% 48.1% -42.3 0
1957-08-11 @ Steinkjer W 5-2 1287 1140 48.1% 15.9% 35.9% +42.3 4
1957-08-11 Larvik Turn D 1-1 1288 1322 51.5% 16.0% 32.6% -2.4 1
1957-08-11 @ Strommen D 1-1 1322 1288 32.6% 16.0% 51.5% +2.4 3
1957-08-11 Frigg Oslo W 5-1 1257 1261 55.3% 15.9% 28.8% +52.1 4
1957-08-11 @ Viking L 1-5 1261 1257 28.8% 15.9% 55.3% -52.1 2
1957-08-14 Skeid D 2-2 1329 1338 54.6% 16.0% 29.4% -2.4 5
1957-08-14 @ Asker D 2-2 1338 1329 29.4% 16.0% 54.6% +2.4 5
1957-08-14 Viking L 1-3 1309 1309 55.6% 15.9% 28.4% -50.7 4
1957-08-14 @ Brann W 3-1 1309 1309 28.4% 15.9% 55.6% +50.7 6
1957-08-14 Sandefjord D 0-0 1195 1303 41.4% 16.0% 42.7% +0.2 3
1957-08-14 @ Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1303 1195 42.7% 16.0% 41.4% -0.2 4
1957-08-14 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-1 1209 1098 67.1% 15.8% 17.1% +25.2 4
1957-08-14 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-4 1098 1209 17.1% 15.8% 67.1% -25.2 0
1957-08-14 IF Odd L 0-1 1324 1159 71.2% 15.8% 13.0% -39.8 3
1957-08-14 @ Larvik Turn W 1-0 1159 1324 13.0% 15.8% 71.2% +39.8 2
1957-08-14 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1144 1353 27.9% 15.9% 56.2% +2.8 1
1957-08-14 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1353 1144 56.2% 15.9% 27.9% -2.8 3
1957-08-14 Strommen W 2-1 1201 1285 44.6% 16.0% 39.4% +21.6 4
1957-08-14 @ Raufoss L 1-2 1285 1201 39.4% 16.0% 44.6% -21.6 1
1957-08-18 Steinkjer W 5-2 1179 1098 64.4% 15.9% 19.7% +24.9 3
1957-08-18 @ Molde L 2-5 1098 1179 19.7% 15.9% 64.4% -24.9 0
1957-08-25 Larvik Turn D 3-3 1258 1284 52.4% 16.0% 31.6% -1.7 5
1957-08-25 @ Brann D 3-3 1284 1258 31.6% 16.0% 52.4% +1.7 4
1957-08-25 Steinkjer W 9-0 1350 1073 77.2% 15.5% 7.3% +37.7 5
1957-08-25 @ Fredrikstad L 0-9 1073 1350 7.3% 15.5% 77.2% -37.7 0
1957-08-25 Lillestrom L 0-3 1204 1146 62.1% 15.9% 22.0% -94.7 3
1957-08-25 @ Molde W 3-0 1146 1204 22.0% 15.9% 62.1% +94.6 3
1957-08-25 Viking L 1-2 1199 1360 33.9% 15.9% 50.2% -19.0 2
1957-08-25 @ IF Odd W 2-1 1360 1199 50.2% 15.9% 33.9% +19.0 8
1957-08-25 Asker L 1-2 1303 1326 52.8% 16.0% 31.3% -27.8 4
1957-08-25 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1326 1303 31.3% 16.0% 52.8% +27.8 7
1957-08-25 Raufoss L 2-4 1073 1222 35.5% 15.9% 48.5% -30.6 0
1957-08-25 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 4-2 1222 1073 48.5% 15.9% 35.5% +30.6 6
1957-08-25 Eik Tonsberg W 7-2 1341 1196 69.8% 15.8% 14.4% +28.6 7
1957-08-25 @ Skeid L 2-7 1196 1341 14.4% 15.8% 69.8% -28.6 3
1957-08-25 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1264 1235 59.1% 15.9% 24.9% +29.0 3
1957-08-25 @ Strommen L 0-2 1235 1264 24.9% 15.9% 59.1% -29.0 4
1957-09-08 Frigg Oslo W 7-2 1180 1205 52.5% 16.0% 31.5% +57.7 4
1957-09-08 @ IF Odd L 2-7 1205 1180 31.5% 16.0% 52.5% -57.7 4
1957-09-08 Eik Tonsberg W 2-0 1035 1167 38.0% 15.9% 46.1% +49.3 2
1957-09-08 @ Steinkjer L 0-2 1167 1035 46.1% 15.9% 38.0% -49.3 3
1957-09-15 Molde D 3-3 1354 1109 75.8% 15.6% 8.6% -5.9 8
1957-09-15 @ Asker D 3-3 1109 1354 8.6% 15.6% 75.8% +5.9 4
1957-09-15 Brann L 2-3 1148 1256 41.2% 16.0% 42.8% -21.3 4
1957-09-15 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-2 1256 1148 42.8% 16.0% 41.2% +21.3 7
1957-09-15 Raufoss W 5-2 1286 1253 59.6% 15.9% 24.5% +30.3 6
1957-09-15 @ Larvik Turn L 2-5 1253 1286 24.5% 15.9% 59.6% -30.3 6
1957-09-15 Eik Tonsberg W 3-1 1241 1118 68.1% 15.8% 16.1% +16.9 5
1957-09-15 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1118 1241 16.1% 15.8% 68.1% -16.9 3
1957-09-15 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1275 1388 40.6% 16.0% 43.5% +0.4 5
1957-09-15 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1388 1275 43.5% 16.0% 40.6% -0.4 6
1957-09-15 Skeid L 0-3 1085 1369 19.9% 15.8% 64.3% -34.4 2
1957-09-15 @ Steinkjer W 3-0 1369 1085 64.3% 15.8% 19.9% +34.4 9
1957-09-15 IF Odd W 5-0 1293 1237 61.9% 15.9% 22.2% +61.1 5
1957-09-15 @ Strommen L 0-5 1237 1293 22.2% 15.9% 61.9% -61.1 4
1957-09-15 Sarpsborg 08 W 6-0 1379 1042 79.3% 15.4% 5.3% +18.7 10
1957-09-15 @ Viking L 0-6 1042 1379 5.3% 15.4% 79.3% -18.7 0
1957-09-29 IF Odd W 3-1 1277 1176 66.2% 15.9% 17.9% +18.6 9
1957-09-29 @ Brann L 1-3 1176 1277 17.9% 15.9% 66.2% -18.6 4
1957-09-29 Asker W 4-0 1101 1348 23.6% 15.8% 60.6% +120.5 5
1957-09-29 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-4 1348 1101 60.6% 15.8% 23.6% -120.5 8
1957-09-29 Viking W 2-1 1316 1398 45.1% 16.0% 39.0% +21.4 8
1957-09-29 @ Larvik Turn L 1-2 1398 1316 39.0% 16.0% 45.1% -21.4 10
1957-09-29 Steinkjer W 4-2 1258 1050 73.8% 15.7% 10.5% +10.1 7
1957-09-29 @ Lillestrom L 2-4 1050 1258 10.5% 15.7% 73.8% -10.1 2
1957-09-29 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1115 1387 21.1% 15.8% 63.1% +5.6 5
1957-09-29 @ Molde D 1-1 1387 1115 63.1% 15.8% 21.1% -5.6 7
1957-09-29 Frigg Oslo W 4-1 1222 1127 65.8% 15.9% 18.3% +27.0 8
1957-09-29 @ Raufoss L 1-4 1127 1222 18.3% 15.9% 65.8% -27.0 4
1957-09-29 Strommen L 0-1 1024 1354 16.0% 15.7% 68.3% -10.3 0
1957-09-29 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1354 1024 68.3% 15.7% 16.0% +10.3 7
1957-09-29 Sandefjord W 4-0 1404 1275 68.5% 15.8% 15.7% +36.1 11
1957-09-29 @ Skeid L 0-4 1275 1404 15.7% 15.8% 68.5% -36.1 5
1957-10-06 Lillestrom W 3-1 1228 1268 50.7% 16.0% 33.4% +32.4 10
1957-10-06 @ Asker L 1-3 1268 1228 33.4% 16.0% 50.7% -32.4 7
1957-10-06 Molde W 3-1 1221 1121 66.2% 15.9% 17.9% +18.7 7
1957-10-06 @ Eik Tonsberg L 1-3 1121 1221 17.9% 15.9% 66.2% -18.7 5
1957-10-06 Larvik Turn L 2-3 1100 1338 24.6% 15.9% 59.5% -13.6 4
1957-10-06 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-2 1338 1100 59.5% 15.9% 24.6% +13.6 10
1957-10-06 Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1158 1013 69.7% 15.8% 14.5% +17.7 6
1957-10-06 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1013 1158 14.5% 15.8% 69.7% -17.7 0
1957-10-06 Brann L 1-2 1249 1296 49.8% 16.0% 34.2% -26.4 8
1957-10-06 @ Raufoss W 2-1 1296 1249 34.2% 16.0% 49.8% +26.4 11
1957-10-20 Larvik Turn L 2-3 996 1351 14.1% 15.7% 70.2% -8.2 0
1957-10-20 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 3-2 1351 996 70.2% 15.7% 14.1% +8.2 12
1957-10-20 Lillestrom W 2-1 1440 1236 73.6% 15.7% 10.7% +6.6 13
1957-10-20 @ Skeid L 1-2 1236 1440 10.7% 15.7% 73.6% -6.7 7
1957-10-20 Brann W 5-0 1364 1322 60.5% 15.9% 23.6% +64.6 9
1957-10-20 @ Strommen L 0-5 1322 1364 23.6% 15.9% 60.5% -64.6 11
1957-10-20 Raufoss W 4-2 1376 1223 70.4% 15.8% 13.8% +13.1 12
1957-10-20 @ Viking L 2-4 1223 1376 13.8% 15.8% 70.4% -13.1 8
1957-10-27 Skeid L 1-2 1381 1446 47.4% 16.0% 36.7% -25.2 7
1957-10-27 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1446 1381 36.7% 16.0% 47.4% +25.2 15
1957-10-27 Strommen L 0-2 1390 1429 50.8% 16.0% 33.2% -53.8 12
1957-10-27 @ Viking W 2-0 1429 1390 33.2% 16.0% 50.8% +53.8 11
1957-10-27 Molde W 2-1 1239 1102 69.2% 15.8% 15.0% +9.1 7
1957-10-27 @ Sandefjord L 1-2 1102 1239 15.0% 15.8% 69.2% -9.2 5
1958-04-26 Steinkjer W 3-1 1248 1040 73.8% 15.7% 10.5% +11.3 9
1958-04-26 @ Sandefjord L 1-3 1040 1248 10.5% 15.7% 73.8% -11.3 2
1958-05-04 Steinkjer W 6-1 1260 1029 75.1% 15.6% 9.3% +22.5 12
1958-05-04 @ Asker L 1-6 1029 1260 9.3% 15.6% 75.1% -22.5 2
1958-05-04 Sarpsborg 08 W 5-0 1258 988 76.9% 15.6% 7.5% +22.3 13
1958-05-04 @ Brann L 0-5 988 1258 7.5% 15.6% 76.9% -22.3 0
1958-05-04 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1240 1356 40.1% 16.0% 44.0% -21.9 7
1958-05-04 @ Eik Tonsberg W 2-1 1356 1240 44.0% 16.0% 40.1% +21.9 9
1958-05-04 Viking L 0-2 1086 1336 23.4% 15.8% 60.8% -27.3 4
1958-05-04 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1336 1086 60.8% 15.8% 23.4% +27.4 14
1958-05-04 Strommen W 2-1 1360 1483 39.1% 16.0% 44.9% +24.1 14
1958-05-04 @ Larvik Turn L 1-2 1483 1360 44.9% 16.0% 39.1% -24.1 11
1958-05-04 Sandefjord W 3-1 1229 1259 52.0% 16.0% 32.1% +31.3 9
1958-05-04 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1259 1229 32.1% 16.0% 52.0% -31.4 9
1958-05-04 Skeid L 0-4 1093 1472 12.6% 15.6% 71.8% -29.3 5
1958-05-04 @ Molde W 4-0 1472 1093 71.8% 15.6% 12.6% +29.3 17
1958-05-04 IF Odd L 0-3 1210 1175 59.7% 15.9% 24.4% -91.0 8
1958-05-04 @ Raufoss W 3-0 1175 1210 24.4% 15.9% 59.7% +91.0 8
1958-05-07 Asker W 3-1 1378 1283 65.7% 15.9% 18.4% +19.1 11
1958-05-07 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1283 1378 18.4% 15.9% 65.7% -19.1 12
1958-05-11 Lillestrom W 4-3 1397 1260 69.2% 15.8% 15.0% +8.5 13
1958-05-11 @ Fredrikstad L 3-4 1260 1397 15.0% 15.8% 69.2% -8.5 9
1958-05-11 Larvik Turn W 3-1 1266 1384 40.0% 16.0% 44.1% +41.1 10
1958-05-11 @ IF Odd L 1-3 1384 1266 44.1% 16.0% 40.0% -41.1 14
1958-05-11 Eik Tonsberg D 0-0 1228 1218 56.9% 15.9% 27.1% -4.4 10
1958-05-11 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1218 1228 27.1% 15.9% 56.9% +4.4 8
1958-05-11 Frigg Oslo L 0-2 965 1059 43.4% 16.0% 40.7% -46.8 0
1958-05-11 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1059 965 40.7% 16.0% 43.4% +46.8 6
1958-05-11 Asker W 3-1 1501 1264 75.4% 15.6% 9.0% +9.8 19
1958-05-11 @ Skeid L 1-3 1264 1501 9.0% 15.6% 75.4% -9.8 12
1958-05-11 Molde D 3-3 1006 1063 48.4% 16.0% 35.6% -1.0 3
1958-05-11 @ Steinkjer D 3-3 1063 1006 35.6% 16.0% 48.4% +1.0 6
1958-05-11 Raufoss L 2-6 1458 1119 79.4% 15.4% 5.2% -113.3 11
1958-05-11 @ Strommen W 6-2 1119 1458 5.2% 15.4% 79.4% +113.4 10
1958-05-11 Brann W 1-0 1363 1280 64.6% 15.9% 19.5% +12.3 16
1958-05-11 @ Viking L 0-1 1280 1363 19.5% 15.9% 64.6% -12.4 13
1958-05-15 Sandefjord D 0-0 1254 1224 59.2% 15.9% 24.8% -5.1 13
1958-05-15 @ Asker D 0-0 1224 1254 24.8% 15.9% 59.2% +5.1 11
1958-05-15 Skeid L 0-4 1222 1511 19.6% 15.8% 64.6% -44.2 8
1958-05-15 @ Eik Tonsberg W 4-0 1511 1222 64.6% 15.8% 19.6% +44.2 21
1958-05-15 Strommen L 1-4 1105 1345 24.4% 15.8% 59.7% -34.9 6
1958-05-15 @ Frigg Oslo W 4-1 1345 1105 59.7% 15.8% 24.4% +34.9 13
1958-05-15 Brann W 3-2 1343 1268 63.8% 15.9% 20.3% +11.4 16
1958-05-15 @ Larvik Turn L 2-3 1268 1343 20.3% 15.9% 63.8% -11.4 13
1958-05-15 Molde W 4-0 1252 1064 72.6% 15.7% 11.7% +27.4 11
1958-05-15 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1064 1252 11.7% 15.7% 72.6% -27.4 6
1958-05-15 Sarpsborg 08 W 7-2 1232 918 78.6% 15.4% 6.0% +12.3 12
1958-05-15 @ Raufoss L 2-7 918 1232 6.0% 15.4% 78.6% -12.3 0
1958-05-15 Fredrikstad L 0-8 1005 1406 11.2% 15.6% 73.2% -50.8 3
1958-05-15 @ Steinkjer W 8-0 1406 1005 73.2% 15.6% 11.2% +50.8 15
1958-05-15 IF Odd W 2-0 1375 1307 63.2% 15.9% 20.9% +24.8 18
1958-05-15 @ Viking L 0-2 1307 1375 20.9% 15.9% 63.2% -24.8 10
1958-05-18 Frigg Oslo W 1-0 1256 1071 72.5% 15.7% 11.7% +7.7 15
1958-05-18 @ Brann L 0-1 1071 1256 11.7% 15.7% 72.5% -7.7 6
1958-05-18 Lillestrom W 2-0 1178 1279 42.3% 16.0% 41.8% +45.3 10
1958-05-18 @ Eik Tonsberg L 0-2 1279 1178 41.8% 16.0% 42.3% -45.3 11
1958-05-18 Sandefjord W 1-0 1457 1229 74.9% 15.7% 9.4% +6.3 17
1958-05-18 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1229 1457 9.4% 15.7% 74.9% -6.3 11
1958-05-18 Asker D 1-1 1037 1249 27.6% 15.9% 56.5% +3.8 7
1958-05-18 @ Molde D 1-1 1249 1037 56.5% 15.9% 27.6% -3.8 14
1958-05-18 Strommen L 1-2 1283 1380 42.8% 16.0% 41.2% -23.1 10
1958-05-18 @ IF Odd W 2-1 1380 1283 41.2% 16.0% 42.8% +23.1 15
1958-05-18 Larvik Turn L 1-3 1245 1354 41.1% 16.0% 43.0% -38.7 12
1958-05-18 @ Raufoss W 3-1 1354 1245 43.0% 16.0% 41.1% +38.7 18
1958-05-18 Viking D 1-1 906 1400 6.9% 15.3% 77.8% +10.1 1
1958-05-18 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1400 906 77.8% 15.3% 6.9% -10.1 19
1958-05-18 Steinkjer W 3-1 1555 955 84.3% 14.5% 1.2% +1.3 23
1958-05-18 @ Skeid L 1-3 955 1555 1.2% 14.5% 84.3% -1.4 3
1958-06-01 Eik Tonsberg D 1-1 1245 1224 58.3% 15.9% 25.8% -4.3 15
1958-06-01 @ Asker D 1-1 1224 1245 25.8% 15.9% 58.3% +4.3 11
1958-06-01 Molde W 6-1 1463 1041 81.6% 15.1% 3.3% +8.2 19
1958-06-01 @ Fredrikstad L 1-6 1041 1463 3.3% 15.1% 81.6% -8.2 7
1958-06-01 Raufoss L 0-2 1063 1206 36.4% 15.9% 47.7% -40.3 6
1958-06-01 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1206 1063 47.7% 15.9% 36.4% +40.3 14
1958-06-01 Brann W 6-0 1260 1264 55.2% 15.9% 28.9% +91.7 12
1958-06-01 @ IF Odd L 0-6 1264 1260 28.9% 15.9% 55.2% -91.7 15
1958-06-01 Skeid W 2-1 1223 1556 15.7% 15.7% 68.6% +36.0 13
1958-06-01 @ Sandefjord L 1-2 1556 1223 68.6% 15.7% 15.7% -36.0 23
1958-06-01 Lillestrom L 1-5 953 1234 20.3% 15.8% 63.9% -38.1 3
1958-06-01 @ Steinkjer W 5-1 1234 953 63.9% 15.8% 20.3% +38.1 13
1958-06-01 Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1403 916 82.8% 14.9% 2.3% +1.6 17
1958-06-01 @ Strommen L 0-1 916 1403 2.3% 14.9% 82.8% -1.6 1
1958-06-01 Larvik Turn D 3-3 1390 1393 55.4% 15.9% 28.6% -2.2 20
1958-06-01 @ Viking D 3-3 1393 1390 28.6% 15.9% 55.4% +2.2 19
1958-06-08 Raufoss W 1-0 1172 1246 46.1% 16.0% 37.9% +22.1 17
1958-06-08 @ Brann L 0-1 1246 1172 37.9% 16.0% 46.1% -22.1 14
1958-06-08 Frigg Oslo W 3-0 1395 1023 80.4% 15.3% 4.3% +8.1 21
1958-06-08 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1023 1395 4.3% 15.3% 80.4% -8.1 6
1958-06-08 Asker L 2-6 1272 1241 59.4% 15.9% 24.7% -83.6 13
1958-06-08 @ Lillestrom W 6-2 1241 1272 24.7% 15.9% 59.4% +83.6 17
1958-06-08 Eik Tonsberg L 1-3 1033 1228 29.6% 15.9% 54.5% -29.2 7
1958-06-08 @ Molde W 3-1 1228 1033 54.5% 15.9% 29.6% +29.2 13
1958-06-08 IF Odd L 1-2 915 1351 9.3% 15.5% 75.2% -5.8 1
1958-06-08 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1351 915 75.2% 15.5% 9.3% +5.8 14
1958-06-08 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1520 1471 61.3% 15.9% 22.8% -32.2 23
1958-06-08 @ Skeid W 2-1 1471 1520 22.8% 15.9% 61.3% +32.2 21
1958-06-08 Sandefjord L 0-1 915 1259 15.0% 15.7% 69.3% -9.7 3
1958-06-08 @ Steinkjer W 1-0 1259 915 69.3% 15.7% 15.0% +9.7 15
1958-06-08 Viking D 0-0 1405 1388 57.7% 15.9% 26.4% -4.6 18
1958-06-08 @ Strommen D 0-0 1388 1405 26.4% 15.9% 57.7% +4.6 21

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1958-06-22 Skeid W 2-0 1393 1488 43.1% 16.0% 41.0% +44.6 1-0
1958-06-22 @ Viking L 0-2 1488 1393 41.0% 16.0% 43.1% -44.6 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1958-05-11 5.19% Raufoss 1119 6 @ Strommen 1458 2
2 1957-08-14 13.03% IF Odd 1159 1 @ Larvik Turn 1324 0
3 1958-06-01 15.72% @ Sandefjord 1223 2 Skeid 1556 1
4 1957-08-25 21.99% Lillestrom 1146 3 @ Molde 1204 0
5 1958-06-08 22.82% Fredrikstad 1471 2 @ Skeid 1520 1
6 1957-09-29 23.59% @ Eik Tonsberg 1101 4 Asker 1348 0
7 1958-05-04 24.37% IF Odd 1175 3 @ Raufoss 1210 0
8 1958-06-08 24.73% Asker 1241 6 @ Lillestrom 1272 2
9 1957-08-11 26.48% Raufoss 1172 3 @ IF Odd 1188 2
10 1957-08-14 28.43% Viking 1309 3 @ Brann 1309 1
11 1957-08-25 31.27% Asker 1326 2 @ Sandefjord 1303 1
12 1957-07-28 32.11% Viking 1230 2 @ Raufoss 1199 1
13 1957-10-27 33.24% Strommen 1429 2 @ Viking 1390 0
14 1957-10-06 34.21% Brann 1296 2 @ Raufoss 1249 1
15 1957-07-31 35.45% @ Asker 1232 5 Fredrikstad 1382 2
16 1957-10-27 36.69% Skeid 1446 2 @ Fredrikstad 1381 1
17 1957-07-28 36.86% Skeid 1275 3 @ Lillestrom 1209 1
18 1957-09-08 37.96% @ Steinkjer 1035 2 Eik Tonsberg 1167 0
19 1958-05-04 39.14% @ Larvik Turn 1360 2 Strommen 1483 1
20 1958-05-11 39.96% @ IF Odd 1266 3 Larvik Turn 1384 1
21 1958-05-11 40.68% Frigg Oslo 1059 2 @ Sarpsborg 08 965 0
22 1958-05-18 41.24% Strommen 1380 2 @ IF Odd 1283 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-09-29 120.52 @ Eik Tonsberg 4 1101 23.59% Asker 0 1348 60.57% 15.84%
2 1958-05-11 113.35 Raufoss 6 1119 5.19% @ Strommen 2 1458 79.43% 15.38%
3 1957-08-25 94.65 Lillestrom 3 1146 21.99% @ Molde 0 1204 62.11% 15.90%
4 1958-06-01 91.67 @ IF Odd 6 1260 55.20% Brann 0 1264 28.86% 15.94%
5 1958-05-04 91.02 IF Odd 3 1175 24.37% @ Raufoss 0 1210 59.71% 15.92%
6 1958-06-08 83.59 Asker 6 1241 24.73% @ Lillestrom 2 1272 59.35% 15.92%
7 1957-10-20 64.62 @ Strommen 5 1364 60.48% Brann 0 1322 23.60% 15.91%
8 1957-09-15 61.14 @ Strommen 5 1293 61.91% IF Odd 0 1237 22.19% 15.90%
9 1957-07-28 60.67 @ Frigg Oslo 5 1201 49.71% IF Odd 1 1248 34.33% 15.96%
10 1957-09-08 57.71 @ IF Odd 7 1180 52.55% Frigg Oslo 2 1205 31.50% 15.95%
11 1957-07-31 54.81 @ Asker 5 1232 35.45% Fredrikstad 2 1382 48.61% 15.93%
12 1957-10-27 53.80 Strommen 2 1429 33.24% @ Viking 0 1390 50.81% 15.95%
13 1957-08-11 52.09 @ Viking 5 1257 55.26% Frigg Oslo 1 1261 28.80% 15.94%
14 1958-05-15 50.85 Fredrikstad 8 1406 73.18% @ Steinkjer 0 1005 11.25% 15.57%
15 1957-08-14 50.70 Viking 3 1309 28.43% @ Brann 1 1309 55.63% 15.94%
16 1957-09-08 49.31 @ Steinkjer 2 1035 37.96% Eik Tonsberg 0 1167 46.10% 15.94%
17 1958-05-11 46.79 Frigg Oslo 2 1059 40.68% @ Sarpsborg 08 0 965 43.37% 15.96%
18 1958-05-18 45.33 @ Eik Tonsberg 2 1178 42.27% Lillestrom 0 1279 41.78% 15.95%
19 1958-06-22 * 44.60 @ Viking 2 1393 43.07% Skeid 0 1488 40.97% 15.96%
20 1958-05-15 44.23 Skeid 4 1511 64.64% @ Eik Tonsberg 0 1222 19.57% 15.79%
21 1957-07-28 43.59 Skeid 3 1275 36.86% @ Lillestrom 1 1209 47.19% 15.96%
22 1957-08-11 42.30 Asker 5 1287 48.13% @ Steinkjer 2 1140 35.93% 15.94%
23 1958-05-11 41.09 @ IF Odd 3 1266 39.96% Larvik Turn 1 1384 44.09% 15.95%
24 1958-06-01 40.31 Raufoss 2 1206 47.69% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1063 36.38% 15.94%
25 1957-08-14 39.81 IF Odd 1 1159 13.03% @ Larvik Turn 0 1324 71.20% 15.77%