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1956-57 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

IF Odd

5.61 points above expected

20 points · 14.39 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Rapid Moss

7.79 points below expected

4 points · 11.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 11 1 2 23 60 25 +35 18.18 +4.82
2 IF Odd 14 7 6 1 20 23 14 +9 14.39 +5.61
3 Strommen 14 8 2 4 18 39 22 +17 15.30 +2.70
4 Larvik Turn 14 7 3 4 17 25 16 +9 17.13 -0.13
5 Sandefjord 14 8 1 5 17 23 14 +9 15.66 +1.34
6 Lillestrom 14 7 2 5 16 21 22 -1 13.46 +2.54
7 Skeid 14 5 5 4 15 25 19 +6 15.77 -0.77
8 Viking 14 5 5 4 15 19 15 +4 13.65 +1.35
9 Asker 14 5 4 5 14 34 35 -1 15.03 -1.03
10 Steinkjer 14 5 4 5 14 26 41 -15 12.64 +1.36
11 Frigg Oslo 14 5 2 7 12 25 26 -1 13.26 -1.26
12 Valerenga 14 5 1 8 11 20 29 -9 12.34 -1.34
13 Sarpsborg 08 14 2 6 6 10 17 28 -11 11.92 -1.92
14 Arstad 14 3 3 8 9 21 32 -11 10.88 -1.88
15 Sarpsborg 14 3 3 8 9 14 29 -15 12.60 -3.60
16 Rapid Moss 14 2 0 12 4 15 40 -25 11.79 -7.79

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fredrikstad 6
IF Odd 1

Sim: 3.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1586 23 18.18 +4.82 97.7% 7 14 16 18 20 23 28
Strommen 1453 18 15.30 +2.70 86.7% 4 11 13 15 17 20 25
Larvik Turn 1427 17 17.13 -0.13 55.0% 6 12 15 17 19 22 28
Sandefjord 1416 17 15.66 +1.34 73.6% 4 11 14 16 18 20 27
Skeid 1407 15 15.77 -0.77 45.9% 5 11 14 16 18 21 26
IF Odd 1387 20 14.39 +5.61 98.4% 4 10 12 14 16 19 26
Asker 1352 14 15.03 -1.03 42.2% 6 10 13 15 17 20 25
Viking 1346 15 13.65 +1.35 73.9% 3 9 12 14 16 18 23
Lillestrom 1323 16 13.46 +2.54 85.3% 3 9 12 13 15 18 24
Frigg Oslo 1304 12 13.26 -1.26 39.5% 3 9 11 13 15 18 24
Valerenga 1257 11 12.34 -1.34 38.2% 2 8 10 12 14 17 23
Steinkjer 1252 14 12.64 +1.36 75.0% 3 8 11 13 15 17 24
Sarpsborg 08 1235 10 11.92 -1.92 31.4% 0 7 10 12 14 17 22
Sarpsborg 1230 9 12.60 -3.60 13.3% 3 8 11 13 14 17 23
Arstad 1222 9 10.88 -1.88 31.2% 1 6 9 11 13 16 21
Rapid Moss 1137 4 11.79 -7.79 0.4% 2 7 10 12 14 17 22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARS ASK FRE FO IO LT LIL RM SAN SAR S0 SKE STE STR VAL VIK
Arstad —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.23
0-0-2
1.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.81
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.18
Asker
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
2.08
1-0-1
3.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.25
1-1-0
2.67
1-0-1
3.46
0-0-0
0.00
Fredrikstad
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.48
 —
2-0-0
3.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.81
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.15
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
3.62
0-0-0
0.00
Frigg Oslo
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.91
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.71
2-0-0
2.83
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.96
0-1-1
2.45
0-1-1
3.06
0-0-0
0.00
IF Odd
0-2-0
3.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
2.30
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.50
2-0-0
3.27
1-1-0
3.34
2-0-0
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.90
Larvik Turn
2-0-0
3.86
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.25
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.11
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
3.82
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.57
Lillestrom
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-1
1.75
0-0-2
2.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.27
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.34
2-0-0
2.94
0-0-0
0.00
Rapid Moss
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
1.80
0-0-2
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.28
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.49
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
2-0-0
3.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.06
1-0-1
2.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.46
0-1-1
2.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.16
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.29
0-1-1
2.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.43
 —
1-1-0
2.76
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.65
Sarpsborg 08
1-0-1
3.05
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.21
1-1-0
1.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.10
0-1-1
2.80
 —
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.23
Skeid
1-1-0
3.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.17
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.63
1-1-0
3.45
1-1-0
3.39
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.26
Steinkjer
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.30
0-0-2
1.42
2-0-0
2.60
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.67
2-0-0
3.07
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-0
0.00
Strommen
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.24
1-1-0
3.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.22
2-0-0
3.53
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.15
 —
1-0-1
3.36
0-0-0
0.00
Valerenga
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.10
0-0-2
1.95
1-1-0
2.49
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.61
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.20
 —
0-0-0
0.00
Viking
1-0-1
3.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.65
1-0-1
1.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
2.90
0-2-0
3.32
1-1-0
2.30
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.50 +3.0
Allowed 0.40 -3.4
Differential 0.84 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%5.36%5.80%0.89%3.12%0.89%20.54%
15.36%10.71%7.14%4.46%2.68%0.89%31.25%
25.80%7.14%3.57%2.68%0.45%2.23%21.88%
30.89%4.46%2.68%2.68%0.89%1.79%13.39%
43.12%2.68%0.45%0.89%——7.14%
5+0.89%0.89%2.23%1.79%——5.80%
Total20.54%31.25%21.88%13.39%7.14%5.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.82 +0.00
SD 1.69 1.69 2.42
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
1—7.14%7.14%21.43%——35.71%
214.29%—7.14%7.14%—7.14%35.71%
3——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%21.43%28.57%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.29 -0.79
SD 0.94 1.98 1.76
CV 0.63 0.87 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%————7.14%14.29%
1——7.14%———7.14%
27.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
3——7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%35.71%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total14.29%21.43%21.43%21.43%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.50 -0.07
SD 1.55 2.07 2.70
CV 0.64 0.83 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
1——7.14%———7.14%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+—7.14%14.29%21.43%——42.86%
Total7.14%28.57%42.86%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.29 1.79 +2.50
SD 2.64 0.89 2.53
CV 0.62 0.50 —
Max 9 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%———14.29%
1—14.29%14.29%—7.14%—35.71%
214.29%14.29%————28.57%
3————7.14%7.14%14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total21.43%28.57%28.57%—14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.86 -0.07
SD 1.53 1.75 2.40
CV 0.86 0.94 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
121.43%14.29%—7.14%——42.86%
2—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
3———————
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total35.71%35.71%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.00 +0.64
SD 1.39 0.96 1.28
CV 0.85 0.96 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
114.29%21.43%7.14%7.14%——50.00%
2———————
3—21.43%————21.43%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total21.43%50.00%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.14 +0.64
SD 1.53 0.86 1.82
CV 0.86 0.76 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
17.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
221.43%14.29%7.14%———42.86%
3———————
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%21.43%28.57%7.14%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.57 -0.07
SD 1.02 1.40 2.02
CV 0.68 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%21.43%—7.14%—35.71%
1——21.43%7.14%—14.29%42.86%
2————7.14%—7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total—14.29%50.00%7.14%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 2.86 -1.79
SD 1.21 1.79 2.26
CV 1.13 0.63 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%——7.14%—21.43%
17.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
214.29%—————14.29%
314.29%21.43%————35.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%42.86%14.29%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.00 +0.64
SD 1.22 1.11 2.02
CV 0.74 1.11 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%7.14%14.29%—35.71%
17.14%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%—50.00%
2———————
3——7.14%———7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%35.71%21.43%14.29%21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.07 -1.07
SD 1.18 1.33 2.06
CV 1.18 0.64 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—7.14%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
1—21.43%——7.14%—28.57%
2—7.14%—7.14%—7.14%21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———7.14%——7.14%
Total21.43%28.57%7.14%21.43%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 2.00 -0.79
SD 1.85 1.66 2.08
CV 1.52 0.83 —
Max 7 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%28.57%—14.29%7.14%—57.14%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3———7.14%——7.14%
421.43%—————21.43%
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%—21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.36 +0.43
SD 1.37 1.34 2.24
CV 0.77 0.98 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
1—7.14%————7.14%
27.14%14.29%7.14%——21.43%50.00%
3———7.14%——7.14%
47.14%——7.14%——14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%28.57%7.14%14.29%—28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.93 -1.07
SD 1.29 3.25 3.67
CV 0.70 1.11 —
Max 4 10 +4
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%7.14%————14.29%
214.29%14.29%—14.29%——42.86%
3———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%—7.14%———14.29%
Total35.71%28.57%7.14%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.79 1.57 +1.21
SD 2.42 1.95 3.21
CV 0.87 1.24 —
Max 10 7 +10
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%—7.14%—21.43%
17.14%7.14%21.43%—7.14%—42.86%
2—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
3—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%21.43%42.86%14.29%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 2.07 -0.64
SD 1.22 1.14 1.74
CV 0.86 0.55 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%21.43%7.14%———42.86%
17.14%7.14%————14.29%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3—14.29%—7.14%——21.43%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%57.14%14.29%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.07 +0.29
SD 1.45 0.83 1.38
CV 1.07 0.77 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Odd 20 14.39 +5.61
2 Fredrikstad 23 18.18 +4.82
3 Strommen 18 15.30 +2.70
4 Lillestrom 16 13.46 +2.54
5 Steinkjer 14 12.64 +1.36

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rapid Moss 4 11.79 -7.79
2 Sarpsborg 9 12.60 -3.60
3 Sarpsborg 08 10 11.92 -1.92
4 Arstad 9 10.88 -1.88
5 Valerenga 11 12.34 -1.34

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Odd 3 Sep 30 – Oct 14 1 in 108
2 Fredrikstad 6 Jul 29 – Oct 14 1 in 33
3 Lillestrom 3 Oct 14 – May 5 1 in 24
4 Sandefjord 3 Aug 19 – Sep 23 1 in 15
5 Steinkjer 2 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rapid Moss 7 Oct 14 – Jun 2 1 in 181
2 Sarpsborg 08 4 Aug 5 – Sep 9 1 in 74
3 Arstad 5 Aug 8 – Sep 30 1 in 23
4 Larvik Turn 2 May 5 – May 8 1 in 17
5 Frigg Oslo 2 Oct 7 – Oct 14 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 IF Odd 9 Jul 29 – May 5 1 in 129
2 Asker 6 Sep 9 – May 12 1 in 28
3 Strommen 6 May 5 – Jun 2 1 in 15
4 Sarpsborg 08 4 May 5 – May 19 1 in 11
5 Sandefjord 5 Aug 5 – Sep 23 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 08 8 Aug 5 – May 12 1 in 22
2 IF Odd 4 May 5 – May 26 1 in 18
3 Sarpsborg 6 May 5 – Jun 2 1 in 16
4 Skeid 4 Oct 14 – May 8 1 in 15
5 Viking 4 Aug 19 – Apr 28 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad58.66%19.79%10.23%5.41%2.97%1.73%0.84%0.37%
IF Odd10.27%15.53%17.52%16.06%14.96%11.93%9.04%4.69%
Strommen15.17%24.54%19.12%14.55%10.29%7.90%5.26%3.17%
Larvik Turn38.26%23.83%14.54%10.10%6.34%4.10%2.02%0.81%
Sandefjord20.89%20.32%17.89%15.38%11.43%7.35%4.42%2.32%
Lillestrom4.52%11.18%14.10%16.11%15.59%14.48%13.61%10.41%
Skeid20.11%20.04%18.75%14.92%11.11%7.63%4.89%2.55%
Viking5.91%10.02%13.44%16.55%17.59%15.49%12.49%8.51%
Asker11.62%19.27%19.55%15.86%12.67%9.46%7.08%4.49%
Steinkjer2.36%5.90%9.00%12.38%14.94%18.07%18.98%18.37%
Frigg Oslo4.21%10.04%12.75%15.79%16.47%15.57%13.79%11.38%
Valerenga2.03%5.71%9.02%11.50%14.69%17.44%19.13%20.48%
Sarpsborg 081.50%3.43%6.33%9.58%12.91%18.68%23.73%23.84%
Arstad0.75%1.67%3.62%6.20%10.01%16.12%23.52%38.11%
Sarpsborg2.31%5.16%7.91%11.21%15.65%18.70%19.89%19.17%
Rapid Moss1.43%3.57%6.23%8.40%12.38%15.35%21.31%31.33%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+33.93%
Strong Edge
56.25%21.43%22.32%
Elo Value
Home Edge
124 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0122.74400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.96 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.99+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.3
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
59%
Fredrikstad, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.28 * Some Luck: 2.28 to 3.43 * Lucky: 3.43 to 4.57 * Wild Swing: 4.57 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.68 * Close: 2.68 to 4.02 * Off: 4.02 to 5.36 * Way Off: 5.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.16 points
Some Luck
02.867
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.88
Pinpoint
03.358
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
98.37%
IF Odd
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
0.43%
Rapid Moss
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.26
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
72%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Dominant
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Very Frequent
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.90
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.33
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.106
Well Within Noise
00.1280.3

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
IF Odd — —
Larvik Turn 58.91% 2.83%
Sandefjord 72.37% 6.74%
Skeid 72.45% 7.44%
Strommen 76.40% 8.43%
Asker 76.81% 11.57%
Viking 73.09% 21.00%
Lillestrom 71.46% 24.02%
Frigg Oslo 70.62% 25.17%
Steinkjer 60.29% 37.35%
Sarpsborg 58.63% 39.06%
Valerenga 58.36% 39.61%
Sarpsborg 08 50.93% 47.57%
Rapid Moss 45.93% 52.64%
Arstad 37.62% 61.63%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AskerFredrikstadFrigg OsloIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromRapid MossSandefjordSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SkeidSteinkjerStrommenValerengaViking
Asker100.0%1.00%22.2%9.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad100.0%3.00%63.2%19.00%75.0%8.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%80.0%10.00%80.0%5.00%
Frigg Oslo0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
IF Odd0.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%
Larvik Turn77.8%9.00%36.8%19.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%6.00%66.7%3.00%
Lillestrom33.3%3.00%50.0%2.00%
Rapid Moss0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Sandefjord100.0%2.00%25.0%8.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg0.0%2.00%
Sarpsborg 08100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Skeid75.0%4.00%20.0%10.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Steinkjer100.0%2.00%
Strommen50.0%2.00%50.0%6.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Valerenga33.3%3.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%1.00%
Viking0.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 68.18%
IF Odd 31.82%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadIF Odd
Fredrikstad68.2%100.00%
IF Odd31.8%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1956-07-29 Skeid W 4-1 1298 1387 51.7% 22.5% 25.8% +24.1 2
1956-07-29 @ IF Odd L 1-4 1387 1298 25.8% 22.5% 51.7% -24.1 0
1956-07-29 Asker W 3-2 1297 1409 48.9% 22.5% 28.5% +10.2 2
1956-07-29 @ Rapid Moss L 2-3 1409 1297 28.5% 22.5% 48.9% -10.2 0
1956-07-29 Larvik Turn L 0-1 1350 1433 52.5% 22.5% 25.0% -18.7 0
1956-07-29 @ Sandefjord W 1-0 1433 1350 25.0% 22.5% 52.5% +18.7 2
1956-07-29 Arstad W 7-3 1336 1260 66.6% 21.9% 11.6% +12.0 2
1956-07-29 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 3-7 1260 1336 11.6% 21.9% 66.6% -12.0 0
1956-07-29 Frigg Oslo W 4-3 1278 1287 60.0% 22.3% 17.7% +6.7 2
1956-07-29 @ Steinkjer L 3-4 1287 1278 17.7% 22.3% 60.0% -6.6 0
1956-07-29 Lillestrom W 4-0 1340 1300 64.1% 22.1% 13.9% +22.0 2
1956-07-29 @ Strommen L 0-4 1300 1340 13.9% 22.1% 64.1% -22.0 0
1956-07-29 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1299 1440 45.3% 22.5% 32.2% -14.7 0
1956-07-29 @ Valerenga W 3-2 1440 1299 32.2% 22.5% 45.3% +14.7 2
1956-07-29 Sarpsborg W 4-1 1318 1300 62.3% 22.2% 15.5% +15.7 2
1956-07-29 @ Viking L 1-4 1300 1318 15.5% 22.2% 62.3% -15.7 0
1956-08-05 IF Odd D 0-0 1248 1322 53.4% 22.5% 24.1% -2.6 1
1956-08-05 @ Arstad D 0-0 1322 1248 24.1% 22.5% 53.4% +2.6 3
1956-08-05 Steinkjer D 3-3 1399 1285 69.0% 21.6% 9.4% -3.2 1
1956-08-05 @ Asker D 3-3 1285 1399 9.4% 21.6% 69.0% +3.2 3
1956-08-05 Strommen W 7-3 1454 1362 67.6% 21.8% 10.6% +11.1 4
1956-08-05 @ Fredrikstad L 3-7 1362 1454 10.6% 21.8% 67.6% -11.1 2
1956-08-05 Rapid Moss W 2-0 1280 1308 58.3% 22.4% 19.3% +15.5 2
1956-08-05 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-2 1308 1280 19.3% 22.4% 58.3% -15.5 2
1956-08-05 Viking W 1-0 1451 1333 69.2% 21.6% 9.3% +4.2 4
1956-08-05 @ Larvik Turn L 0-1 1333 1451 9.3% 21.6% 69.2% -4.2 2
1956-08-05 Valerenga W 2-0 1278 1285 60.2% 22.3% 17.5% +14.2 2
1956-08-05 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1285 1278 17.5% 22.3% 60.2% -14.2 0
1956-08-05 Sandefjord L 1-3 1284 1332 56.3% 22.4% 21.3% -32.7 0
1956-08-05 @ Sarpsborg W 3-1 1332 1284 21.3% 22.4% 56.3% +32.7 2
1956-08-05 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-0 1363 1348 62.1% 22.2% 15.7% +24.6 2
1956-08-05 @ Skeid L 0-4 1348 1363 15.7% 22.2% 62.1% -24.6 2
1956-08-08 Larvik Turn D 1-1 1325 1456 46.5% 22.5% 30.9% -1.2 4
1956-08-08 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1456 1325 30.9% 22.5% 46.5% +1.2 5
1956-08-08 Skeid D 1-1 1364 1387 58.7% 22.4% 18.9% -3.3 3
1956-08-08 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1387 1364 18.9% 22.4% 58.7% +3.3 3
1956-08-08 Sarpsborg L 1-4 1323 1252 66.3% 21.9% 11.8% -54.5 2
1956-08-08 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 4-1 1252 1323 11.8% 21.9% 66.3% +54.5 2
1956-08-08 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1351 1296 65.2% 22.0% 12.8% +10.8 4
1956-08-08 @ Strommen L 0-2 1296 1351 12.8% 22.0% 65.2% -10.8 2
1956-08-08 Asker W 4-3 1270 1396 47.2% 22.5% 30.3% +10.4 2
1956-08-08 @ Valerenga L 3-4 1396 1270 30.3% 22.5% 47.2% -10.4 1
1956-08-08 Arstad W 1-0 1329 1246 67.1% 21.8% 11.1% +5.0 4
1956-08-08 @ Viking L 0-1 1246 1329 11.1% 21.8% 67.1% -5.0 1
1956-08-09 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1292 1465 40.8% 22.5% 36.7% -14.2 2
1956-08-09 @ Rapid Moss W 2-1 1465 1292 36.7% 22.5% 40.8% +14.2 6
1956-08-12 Lillestrom D 2-2 1288 1292 60.4% 22.3% 17.3% -2.7 4
1956-08-12 @ Steinkjer D 2-2 1292 1288 17.3% 22.3% 60.4% +2.7 3
1956-08-19 Skeid L 1-2 1241 1391 44.0% 22.5% 33.5% -15.1 1
1956-08-19 @ Arstad W 2-1 1391 1241 33.5% 22.5% 44.0% +15.1 5
1956-08-19 Steinkjer W 9-2 1480 1285 72.9% 20.9% 6.2% +11.8 8
1956-08-19 @ Fredrikstad L 2-9 1285 1480 6.2% 20.9% 72.9% -11.8 4
1956-08-19 Asker W 6-0 1285 1386 50.3% 22.5% 27.1% +57.1 4
1956-08-19 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-6 1386 1285 27.1% 22.5% 50.3% -57.1 1
1956-08-19 Rapid Moss W 2-0 1295 1278 62.3% 22.2% 15.5% +12.8 5
1956-08-19 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1278 1295 15.5% 22.2% 62.3% -12.8 2
1956-08-19 Sarpsborg 08 W 5-2 1324 1269 65.1% 22.0% 12.9% +11.5 6
1956-08-19 @ IF Odd L 2-5 1269 1324 12.9% 22.0% 65.1% -11.5 2
1956-08-19 Viking W 1-0 1361 1334 63.0% 22.1% 14.8% +6.5 5
1956-08-19 @ Sandefjord L 0-1 1334 1361 14.8% 22.1% 63.0% -6.5 4
1956-08-19 Larvik Turn D 1-1 1306 1457 43.9% 22.5% 33.6% -0.8 3
1956-08-19 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1457 1306 33.6% 22.5% 43.9% +0.8 6
1956-08-19 Strommen W 3-2 1281 1362 52.6% 22.5% 24.9% +9.1 4
1956-08-19 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1362 1281 24.9% 22.5% 52.6% -9.1 4
1956-09-09 Lillestrom W 4-1 1328 1308 62.5% 22.2% 15.3% +15.5 3
1956-09-09 @ Asker L 1-4 1308 1328 15.3% 22.2% 62.5% -15.5 5
1956-09-09 Frigg Oslo W 6-3 1491 1342 70.8% 21.3% 7.9% +6.7 10
1956-09-09 @ Fredrikstad L 3-6 1342 1491 7.9% 21.3% 70.8% -6.7 4
1956-09-09 Arstad W 5-2 1458 1225 74.4% 20.5% 5.1% +4.7 8
1956-09-09 @ Larvik Turn L 2-5 1225 1458 5.1% 20.5% 74.4% -4.7 1
1956-09-09 Sandefjord L 0-2 1257 1367 49.2% 22.5% 28.3% -33.2 2
1956-09-09 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1367 1257 28.3% 22.5% 49.2% +33.2 7
1956-09-09 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1406 1305 68.1% 21.7% 10.2% +16.6 7
1956-09-09 @ Skeid L 0-4 1305 1406 10.2% 21.7% 68.1% -16.6 3
1956-09-09 Valerenga W 2-1 1273 1290 59.3% 22.3% 18.3% +7.4 6
1956-09-09 @ Steinkjer L 1-2 1290 1273 18.3% 22.3% 59.3% -7.4 4
1956-09-09 Rapid Moss W 1-0 1353 1265 67.3% 21.8% 10.9% +4.9 6
1956-09-09 @ Strommen L 0-1 1265 1353 10.9% 21.8% 67.3% -4.9 2
1956-09-09 IF Odd D 1-1 1327 1335 60.1% 22.3% 17.6% -3.5 5
1956-09-09 @ Viking D 1-1 1335 1327 17.6% 22.3% 60.1% +3.5 7
1956-09-23 Sandefjord L 1-3 1221 1401 39.8% 22.5% 37.7% -24.1 1
1956-09-23 @ Arstad W 3-1 1401 1221 37.7% 22.5% 39.8% +24.1 9
1956-09-23 Steinkjer L 1-2 1260 1281 58.9% 22.4% 18.7% -19.7 2
1956-09-23 @ Rapid Moss W 2-1 1281 1260 18.7% 22.4% 58.9% +19.7 8
1956-09-30 Lillestrom W 2-1 1336 1292 64.3% 22.1% 13.7% +5.7 6
1956-09-30 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1292 1336 13.7% 22.1% 64.3% -5.7 5
1956-09-30 Valerenga W 4-1 1240 1282 56.9% 22.4% 20.7% +20.2 4
1956-09-30 @ Rapid Moss L 1-4 1282 1240 20.7% 22.4% 56.9% -20.2 4
1956-09-30 IF Odd L 1-2 1425 1339 67.3% 21.8% 10.9% -22.6 9
1956-09-30 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1339 1425 10.9% 21.8% 67.3% +22.6 9
1956-09-30 Arstad W 3-2 1289 1197 67.6% 21.8% 10.6% +4.3 5
1956-09-30 @ Sarpsborg L 2-3 1197 1289 10.6% 21.8% 67.6% -4.3 1
1956-09-30 Strommen L 2-5 1301 1358 55.3% 22.4% 22.3% -39.3 8
1956-09-30 @ Steinkjer W 5-2 1358 1301 22.3% 22.4% 55.3% +39.3 8
1956-09-30 Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1324 1224 68.1% 21.7% 10.2% -5.7 6
1956-09-30 @ Viking D 0-0 1224 1324 10.2% 21.7% 68.1% +5.7 3
1956-10-07 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1361 1293 66.1% 21.9% 12.0% +5.1 11
1956-10-07 @ IF Odd L 1-2 1293 1361 12.0% 21.9% 66.1% -5.1 5
1956-10-07 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1262 1341 52.9% 22.5% 24.6% +9.5 6
1956-10-07 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1341 1262 24.6% 22.5% 52.9% -9.5 6
1956-10-14 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-2 1192 1230 57.3% 22.4% 20.3% +7.7 3
1956-10-14 @ Arstad L 2-3 1230 1192 20.3% 22.4% 57.3% -7.7 3
1956-10-14 Rapid Moss W 6-1 1344 1261 67.1% 21.8% 11.1% +18.3 5
1956-10-14 @ Asker L 1-6 1261 1344 11.1% 21.8% 67.1% -18.3 4
1956-10-14 Valerenga W 4-0 1498 1272 74.2% 20.6% 5.3% +8.7 12
1956-10-14 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1272 1498 5.3% 20.6% 74.2% -8.7 6
1956-10-14 Steinkjer L 0-2 1332 1261 66.2% 21.9% 11.9% -44.5 6
1956-10-14 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1261 1332 11.9% 21.9% 66.2% +44.5 10
1956-10-14 Strommen W 1-0 1287 1397 49.1% 22.5% 28.3% +11.3 7
1956-10-14 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1397 1287 28.3% 22.5% 49.1% -11.3 8
1956-10-14 IF Odd L 0-1 1422 1366 65.2% 22.0% 12.8% -23.2 7
1956-10-14 @ Skeid W 1-0 1366 1422 12.8% 22.0% 65.2% +23.2 13
1956-10-21 Asker D 2-2 1507 1362 70.6% 21.3% 8.1% -4.1 13
1956-10-21 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1362 1507 8.1% 21.3% 70.6% +4.1 6
1957-04-28 Fredrikstad W 2-0 1298 1503 36.3% 22.4% 41.2% +28.6 9
1957-04-28 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1503 1298 41.2% 22.4% 36.3% -28.6 13
1957-04-28 Skeid W 3-1 1462 1399 65.7% 21.9% 12.3% +9.0 10
1957-04-28 @ Larvik Turn L 1-3 1399 1462 12.3% 21.9% 65.7% -9.0 7
1957-04-28 Viking W 1-0 1288 1318 58.0% 22.4% 19.6% +8.3 7
1957-04-28 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1318 1288 19.6% 22.4% 58.0% -8.3 6
1957-05-01 Asker L 2-3 1386 1366 62.4% 22.2% 15.4% -19.8 8
1957-05-01 @ Strommen W 3-2 1366 1386 15.4% 22.2% 62.4% +19.8 8
1957-05-05 Arstad D 2-2 1390 1200 72.7% 20.9% 6.4% -4.4 14
1957-05-05 @ IF Odd D 2-2 1200 1390 6.4% 20.9% 72.7% +4.4 4
1957-05-05 Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1242 1287 56.5% 22.4% 21.1% -18.9 4
1957-05-05 @ Rapid Moss W 2-1 1287 1242 21.1% 22.4% 56.5% +18.9 8
1957-05-05 Sarpsborg W 3-0 1402 1296 68.5% 21.7% 9.9% +12.3 11
1957-05-05 @ Sandefjord L 0-3 1296 1402 9.9% 21.7% 68.5% -12.4 7
1957-05-05 Skeid D 1-1 1222 1390 41.5% 22.5% 36.0% -0.4 4
1957-05-05 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1390 1222 36.0% 22.5% 41.5% +0.4 8
1957-05-05 Asker D 0-0 1306 1386 52.7% 22.5% 24.8% -2.5 11
1957-05-05 @ Steinkjer D 0-0 1386 1306 24.8% 22.5% 52.7% +2.5 9
1957-05-05 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1366 1474 49.4% 22.5% 28.1% +10.6 10
1957-05-05 @ Strommen L 1-2 1474 1366 28.1% 22.5% 49.4% -10.6 13
1957-05-05 Lillestrom L 1-2 1263 1327 54.6% 22.5% 23.0% -18.3 6
1957-05-05 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1327 1263 23.0% 22.5% 54.6% +18.3 11
1957-05-05 Larvik Turn W 3-1 1310 1471 42.4% 22.5% 35.0% +21.8 8
1957-05-05 @ Viking L 1-3 1471 1310 35.0% 22.5% 42.4% -21.8 10
1957-05-08 Viking D 3-3 1390 1332 65.4% 22.0% 12.6% -2.8 9
1957-05-08 @ Skeid D 3-3 1332 1390 12.6% 22.0% 65.4% +2.8 9
1957-05-08 Sandefjord L 0-2 1449 1415 63.7% 22.1% 14.2% -42.7 10
1957-05-08 @ Larvik Turn W 2-0 1415 1449 14.2% 22.1% 63.7% +42.7 13
1957-05-12 Viking W 2-0 1204 1335 46.6% 22.5% 30.9% +22.8 6
1957-05-12 @ Arstad L 0-2 1335 1204 30.9% 22.5% 46.6% -22.8 9
1957-05-12 Valerenga W 2-0 1389 1245 70.5% 21.4% 8.1% +7.0 11
1957-05-12 @ Asker L 0-2 1245 1389 8.1% 21.4% 70.5% -7.0 6
1957-05-12 Rapid Moss W 7-1 1464 1223 74.7% 20.4% 4.9% +9.8 15
1957-05-12 @ Fredrikstad L 1-7 1223 1464 4.9% 20.4% 74.7% -9.8 4
1957-05-12 Strommen D 1-1 1306 1376 53.8% 22.5% 23.7% -2.4 9
1957-05-12 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1376 1306 23.7% 22.5% 53.8% +2.4 11
1957-05-12 IF Odd W 3-1 1407 1385 62.6% 22.2% 15.2% +10.9 12
1957-05-12 @ Larvik Turn L 1-3 1385 1407 15.2% 22.2% 62.6% -10.9 14
1957-05-12 Steinkjer D 1-1 1345 1303 64.2% 22.1% 13.7% -4.3 12
1957-05-12 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1303 1345 13.7% 22.1% 64.2% +4.3 12
1957-05-12 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1284 1222 65.7% 21.9% 12.4% -4.6 8
1957-05-12 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1222 1284 12.4% 21.9% 65.7% +4.6 5
1957-05-12 Sandefjord W 4-0 1388 1457 53.9% 22.5% 23.6% +34.8 11
1957-05-12 @ Skeid L 0-4 1457 1388 23.6% 22.5% 53.9% -34.8 13
1957-05-16 Larvik Turn W 2-1 1226 1418 38.2% 22.4% 39.3% +13.8 7
1957-05-16 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1418 1226 39.3% 22.4% 38.2% -13.8 12
1957-05-19 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1304 1473 41.3% 22.5% 36.2% -35.1 9
1957-05-19 @ Frigg Oslo W 4-1 1473 1304 36.2% 22.5% 41.3% +35.1 17
1957-05-19 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1404 1279 69.5% 21.5% 9.0% +14.7 14
1957-05-19 @ Larvik Turn L 0-4 1279 1404 9.0% 21.5% 69.5% -14.7 8
1957-05-19 Asker W 2-1 1341 1396 55.5% 22.4% 22.1% +8.7 14
1957-05-19 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1396 1341 22.1% 22.4% 55.5% -8.7 11
1957-05-19 Strommen L 0-2 1214 1379 41.9% 22.5% 35.6% -29.0 4
1957-05-19 @ Rapid Moss W 2-0 1379 1214 35.6% 22.5% 41.9% +29.0 13
1957-05-19 Arstad W 3-1 1422 1227 72.9% 20.9% 6.2% +4.7 15
1957-05-19 @ Sandefjord L 1-3 1227 1422 6.2% 20.9% 72.9% -4.7 6
1957-05-19 IF Odd D 0-0 1240 1374 46.1% 22.5% 31.4% -1.3 8
1957-05-19 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1374 1240 31.4% 22.5% 46.1% +1.3 15
1957-05-19 Steinkjer W 1-0 1238 1308 53.9% 22.5% 23.6% +9.7 8
1957-05-19 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1308 1238 23.6% 22.5% 53.9% -9.7 12
1957-05-19 Skeid W 3-1 1312 1422 49.1% 22.5% 28.4% +18.5 11
1957-05-19 @ Viking L 1-3 1422 1312 28.4% 22.5% 49.1% -18.5 11
1957-05-26 Larvik Turn L 1-3 1222 1419 37.5% 22.4% 40.0% -23.0 6
1957-05-26 @ Arstad W 3-1 1419 1222 40.0% 22.4% 37.5% +23.0 16
1957-05-26 Strommen D 3-3 1387 1408 58.9% 22.4% 18.7% -2.1 12
1957-05-26 @ Asker D 3-3 1408 1387 18.7% 22.4% 58.9% +2.1 14
1957-05-26 Lillestrom W 3-1 1509 1349 71.3% 21.2% 7.5% +5.7 19
1957-05-26 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1349 1509 7.5% 21.2% 71.3% -5.6 14
1957-05-26 Valerenga D 1-1 1269 1247 62.6% 22.2% 15.2% -4.0 10
1957-05-26 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-1 1247 1269 15.2% 22.2% 62.6% +4.0 9
1957-05-26 Viking D 2-2 1375 1330 64.5% 22.1% 13.5% -3.3 16
1957-05-26 @ IF Odd D 2-2 1330 1375 13.5% 22.1% 64.5% +3.3 12
1957-05-26 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-0 1427 1239 72.6% 21.0% 6.4% +8.2 17
1957-05-26 @ Sandefjord L 0-3 1239 1427 6.4% 21.0% 72.6% -8.2 8
1957-05-26 Skeid D 1-1 1265 1404 45.4% 22.5% 32.0% -1.0 9
1957-05-26 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1404 1265 32.0% 22.5% 45.4% +1.0 12
1957-05-26 Rapid Moss W 4-0 1298 1185 68.9% 21.6% 9.5% +15.6 14
1957-05-26 @ Steinkjer L 0-4 1185 1298 9.5% 21.6% 68.9% -15.5 4
1957-05-30 Fredrikstad L 3-7 1385 1514 46.8% 22.5% 30.7% -39.0 12
1957-05-30 @ Asker W 7-3 1514 1385 30.7% 22.5% 46.8% +39.0 21
1957-05-30 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1442 1231 73.6% 20.7% 5.7% -6.1 17
1957-05-30 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1231 1442 5.7% 20.7% 73.6% +6.1 9
1957-05-30 Frigg Oslo L 0-2 1344 1265 66.8% 21.9% 11.4% -44.9 14
1957-05-30 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1265 1344 11.4% 21.9% 66.8% +44.9 12
1957-05-30 IF Odd L 0-1 1264 1372 49.4% 22.5% 28.1% -17.7 9
1957-05-30 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1372 1264 28.1% 22.5% 49.4% +17.7 18
1957-05-30 Arstad D 1-1 1405 1199 73.3% 20.8% 5.9% -6.1 13
1957-05-30 @ Skeid D 1-1 1199 1405 5.9% 20.8% 73.3% +6.1 7
1957-05-30 Steinkjer W 10-0 1410 1313 67.9% 21.7% 10.4% +40.2 16
1957-05-30 @ Strommen L 0-10 1313 1410 10.4% 21.7% 67.9% -40.2 14
1957-05-30 Rapid Moss W 3-1 1251 1169 67.0% 21.8% 11.2% +8.2 11
1957-05-30 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1169 1251 11.2% 21.8% 67.0% -8.2 4
1957-05-30 Sandefjord W 2-1 1334 1435 50.2% 22.5% 27.3% +10.3 14
1957-05-30 @ Viking L 1-2 1435 1334 27.3% 22.5% 50.2% -10.3 17
1957-06-02 Sarpsborg W 2-0 1206 1246 57.0% 22.4% 20.6% +16.4 9
1957-06-02 @ Arstad L 0-2 1246 1206 20.6% 22.4% 57.0% -16.4 9
1957-06-02 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1346 1309 63.8% 22.1% 14.1% +5.9 14
1957-06-02 @ Asker L 1-2 1309 1346 14.1% 22.1% 63.8% -5.9 12
1957-06-02 Sandefjord W 1-0 1390 1425 57.5% 22.4% 20.1% +8.5 20
1957-06-02 @ IF Odd L 0-1 1425 1390 20.1% 22.4% 57.5% -8.5 17
1957-06-02 Lillestrom L 2-4 1161 1299 45.6% 22.5% 31.9% -24.1 4
1957-06-02 @ Rapid Moss W 4-2 1299 1161 31.9% 22.5% 45.6% +24.1 16
1957-06-02 Viking D 0-0 1237 1344 49.5% 22.5% 28.0% -1.9 10
1957-06-02 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1344 1237 28.0% 22.5% 49.5% +1.9 15
1957-06-02 Larvik Turn W 1-0 1399 1436 57.4% 22.4% 20.2% +8.5 15
1957-06-02 @ Skeid L 0-1 1436 1399 20.2% 22.4% 57.4% -8.5 17
1957-06-02 Fredrikstad L 2-5 1273 1553 26.7% 22.1% 51.2% -21.4 14
1957-06-02 @ Steinkjer W 5-2 1553 1273 51.2% 22.1% 26.7% +21.4 23
1957-06-02 Valerenga W 2-1 1450 1260 72.7% 20.9% 6.4% +2.8 18
1957-06-02 @ Strommen L 1-2 1260 1450 6.4% 20.9% 72.7% -2.8 11

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1957-06-16 IF Odd W 6-1 1575 1398 72.1% 21.1% 6.9% +11.6 1-0
1957-06-16 @ Fredrikstad L 1-6 1398 1575 6.9% 21.1% 72.1% -11.6 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1956-09-30 10.95% IF Odd 1339 2 @ Sandefjord 1425 1
2 1957-05-30 11.36% Frigg Oslo 1265 2 @ Lillestrom 1344 0
3 1956-08-08 11.80% Sarpsborg 1252 4 @ Sarpsborg 08 1323 1
4 1956-10-14 11.87% Steinkjer 1261 2 @ Frigg Oslo 1332 0
5 1956-10-14 12.78% IF Odd 1366 1 @ Skeid 1422 0
6 1957-05-08 14.22% Sandefjord 1415 2 @ Larvik Turn 1449 0
7 1957-05-01 15.38% Asker 1366 3 @ Strommen 1386 2
8 1956-09-23 18.73% Steinkjer 1281 2 @ Rapid Moss 1260 1
9 1957-05-05 21.05% Frigg Oslo 1287 2 @ Rapid Moss 1242 1
10 1956-08-05 21.27% Sandefjord 1332 3 @ Sarpsborg 1284 1
11 1956-09-30 22.29% Strommen 1358 5 @ Steinkjer 1301 2
12 1957-05-05 22.97% Lillestrom 1327 2 @ Valerenga 1263 1
13 1956-07-29 25.02% Larvik Turn 1433 1 @ Sandefjord 1350 0
14 1957-05-30 28.12% IF Odd 1372 1 @ Sarpsborg 1264 0
15 1956-09-09 28.32% Sandefjord 1367 2 @ Sarpsborg 08 1257 0
16 1957-05-30 30.72% Fredrikstad 1514 7 @ Asker 1385 3
17 1957-06-02 31.89% Lillestrom 1299 4 @ Rapid Moss 1161 2
18 1956-07-29 32.21% Fredrikstad 1440 3 @ Valerenga 1299 2
19 1956-08-19 33.49% Skeid 1391 2 @ Arstad 1241 1
20 1957-05-19 35.60% Strommen 1379 2 @ Rapid Moss 1214 0
21 1957-05-19 36.21% Fredrikstad 1473 4 @ Frigg Oslo 1304 1
22 1957-04-28 36.34% @ Lillestrom 1298 2 Fredrikstad 1503 0
23 1956-08-09 36.73% Fredrikstad 1465 2 @ Rapid Moss 1292 1
24 1956-09-23 37.68% Sandefjord 1401 3 @ Arstad 1221 1
25 1957-05-16 38.22% @ Sarpsborg 08 1226 2 Larvik Turn 1418 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1956-08-19 57.12 @ Frigg Oslo 6 1285 50.34% Asker 0 1386 27.14% 22.52%
2 1956-08-08 54.52 Sarpsborg 4 1252 11.80% @ Sarpsborg 08 1 1323 66.31% 21.89%
3 1957-05-30 44.86 Frigg Oslo 2 1265 11.36% @ Lillestrom 0 1344 66.79% 21.85%
4 1956-10-14 44.46 Steinkjer 2 1261 11.87% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1332 66.23% 21.90%
5 1957-05-08 42.67 Sandefjord 2 1415 14.22% @ Larvik Turn 0 1449 63.67% 22.10%
6 1957-05-30 40.21 @ Strommen 10 1410 67.90% Steinkjer 0 1313 10.38% 21.73%
7 1956-09-30 39.29 Strommen 5 1358 22.29% @ Steinkjer 2 1301 55.26% 22.45%
8 1957-05-30 38.95 Fredrikstad 7 1514 30.72% @ Asker 3 1385 46.75% 22.53%
9 1957-05-19 35.10 Fredrikstad 4 1473 36.21% @ Frigg Oslo 1 1304 41.30% 22.49%
10 1957-05-12 34.82 @ Skeid 4 1388 53.91% Sandefjord 0 1457 23.62% 22.48%
11 1956-09-09 33.24 Sandefjord 2 1367 28.32% @ Sarpsborg 08 0 1257 49.16% 22.52%
12 1956-08-05 32.66 Sandefjord 3 1332 21.27% @ Sarpsborg 1 1284 56.31% 22.43%
13 1957-05-19 29.01 Strommen 2 1379 35.60% @ Rapid Moss 0 1214 41.90% 22.50%
14 1957-04-28 28.61 @ Lillestrom 2 1298 36.34% Fredrikstad 0 1503 41.24% 22.42%
15 1956-08-05 24.61 @ Skeid 4 1363 62.06% Sarpsborg 08 0 1348 15.74% 22.20%
16 1956-07-29 24.15 @ IF Odd 4 1298 51.73% Skeid 1 1387 25.77% 22.50%
17 1956-09-23 24.13 Sandefjord 3 1401 37.68% @ Arstad 1 1221 39.84% 22.48%
18 1957-06-02 24.11 Lillestrom 4 1299 31.89% @ Rapid Moss 2 1161 45.59% 22.52%
19 1956-10-14 23.21 IF Odd 1 1366 12.78% @ Skeid 0 1422 65.23% 21.99%
20 1957-05-26 23.03 Larvik Turn 3 1419 40.01% @ Arstad 1 1222 37.55% 22.44%
21 1957-05-12 22.81 @ Arstad 2 1204 46.61% Viking 0 1335 30.86% 22.53%
22 1956-09-30 22.60 IF Odd 2 1339 10.95% @ Sandefjord 1 1425 67.26% 21.80%
23 1956-07-29 21.99 @ Strommen 4 1340 64.06% Lillestrom 0 1300 13.86% 22.08%
24 1957-05-05 21.83 @ Viking 3 1310 42.44% Larvik Turn 1 1471 35.05% 22.50%
25 1957-06-02 21.40 Fredrikstad 5 1553 51.19% @ Steinkjer 2 1273 26.68% 22.13%