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1955-56 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fredrikstad

7.81 points above expected

27 points · 19.19 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ranheim

6.91 points below expected

3 points · 9.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 13 1 0 27 54 17 +37 19.19 +7.81
2 Asker 14 11 1 2 23 41 16 +25 17.62 +5.38
3 Larvik Turn 14 10 1 3 21 40 15 +25 20.27 +0.73
4 Skeid 14 7 3 4 17 34 18 +16 17.53 -0.53
5 Sandefjord 14 7 2 5 16 26 19 +7 15.65 +0.35
6 Viking 14 5 5 4 15 25 26 -1 14.42 +0.58
7 Valerenga 14 5 4 5 14 23 28 -5 13.62 +0.38
8 Lillestrom 14 6 1 7 13 19 25 -6 12.82 +0.18
9 Rapid Moss 14 4 4 6 12 23 26 -3 12.56 -0.56
10 IF Odd 14 4 4 6 12 18 24 -6 13.48 -1.48
11 Frigg Oslo 14 6 0 8 12 27 37 -10 11.73 +0.27
12 Brann 14 4 3 7 11 27 27 0 12.87 -1.87
13 Sarpsborg 14 3 5 6 11 27 30 -3 13.81 -2.81
14 Varegg 14 3 5 6 11 15 32 -17 9.12 +1.88
15 Kvik Trondheim 14 2 2 10 6 12 44 -32 9.39 -3.39
16 Ranheim 14 1 1 12 3 12 39 -27 9.91 -6.91

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Larvik Turn 3
Fredrikstad 2

Sim: 17.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1672 27 19.19 +7.81 100.0% 8 14 17 19 21 24 28
Larvik Turn 1628 21 20.27 +0.73 65.4% 8 15 18 20 22 25 28
Asker 1600 23 17.62 +5.38 97.8% 6 13 16 18 20 23 27
Skeid 1535 17 17.53 -0.53 48.3% 6 13 16 18 20 22 28
Sandefjord 1484 16 15.65 +0.35 60.3% 4 10 14 16 18 21 26
Viking 1436 15 14.42 +0.58 63.7% 2 9 12 14 17 20 25
Brann 1415 11 12.87 -1.87 33.5% 1 8 11 13 15 18 23
Lillestrom 1405 13 12.82 +0.18 58.0% 3 8 11 13 15 18 23
Valerenga 1404 14 13.62 +0.38 60.4% 2 8 11 14 16 19 24
IF Odd 1400 12 13.48 -1.48 38.3% 1 8 11 13 16 19 25
Sarpsborg 1398 11 13.81 -2.81 23.3% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Rapid Moss 1396 12 12.56 -0.56 49.2% 2 7 10 13 15 18 24
Frigg Oslo 1381 12 11.73 +0.27 60.0% 1 7 10 12 14 17 25
Varegg 1266 11 9.12 +1.88 78.3% 0 4 7 9 11 14 20
Kvik Trondheim 1255 6 9.39 -3.39 17.1% 0 5 7 9 11 14 22
Ranheim 1248 3 9.91 -6.91 1.0% 0 5 8 10 12 15 21

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ASK BRA FRE FO IO KT LT LIL RAN RM SAN SAR SKE VAL VAR VIK
Asker —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.65
2-0-0
4.05
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.03
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.62
2-0-0
4.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.50
2-0-0
2.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Brann
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.65
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.27
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.67
0-0-2
3.77
1-1-0
2.30
Fredrikstad
2-0-0
2.96
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.98
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.55
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.01
2-0-0
4.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.96
2-0-0
3.44
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Frigg Oslo
0-0-2
1.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.64
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.29
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.73
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.80
0-2-0
3.63
0-1-1
2.63
Kvik Trondheim
0-0-2
1.59
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.09
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.84
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.97
0-0-2
1.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Larvik Turn
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.30
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.11
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.33
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.15
2-0-0
4.36
1-0-1
4.00
Lillestrom
0-0-2
2.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.60
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
3.37
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.56
0-1-1
1.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Ranheim
0-0-2
1.16
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
2.88
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.07
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.24
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.06
0-0-2
1.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Rapid Moss
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.63
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.29
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.65
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
2.36
Sandefjord
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.33
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.26
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.16
1-1-0
4.21
0-1-1
3.07
Sarpsborg
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.65
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.05
2-0-0
3.55
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-2-0
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Skeid
0-0-2
2.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.16
2-0-0
3.81
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.26
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.93
2-0-0
4.46
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.46
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Valerenga
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.96
0-0-2
2.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
3.74
1-1-0
2.66
Varegg
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
1.84
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
1.98
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.12
0-1-1
1.41
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.87
 —
0-1-1
1.90
Viking
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.97
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.25
1-1-0
2.54
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
3.71
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +4.9
Allowed 0.74 -6.1
Differential 0.92 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%3.12%2.68%2.23%1.34%16.52%
13.57%8.93%9.82%4.46%4.91%2.23%33.93%
23.12%9.82%4.46%3.12%0.89%1.79%23.21%
32.68%4.46%3.12%0.89%—0.45%11.61%
42.23%4.91%0.89%—0.89%—8.93%
5+1.34%2.23%1.79%0.45%——5.80%
Total16.52%33.93%23.21%11.61%8.93%5.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.89 +0.00
SD 1.69 1.69 2.65
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 11 11 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
2—35.71%——7.14%—42.86%
3—14.29%————14.29%
47.14%14.29%————21.43%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total14.29%71.43%7.14%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.93 1.14 +1.79
SD 2.02 0.95 2.61
CV 0.69 0.83 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
1—7.14%14.29%14.29%——35.71%
2—14.29%14.29%14.29%——42.86%
3———————
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total—35.71%35.71%28.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.93 +0.00
SD 1.49 0.83 1.75
CV 0.77 0.43 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
214.29%7.14%————21.43%
37.14%—14.29%———21.43%
47.14%21.43%7.14%—7.14%—42.86%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total28.57%35.71%28.57%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.86 1.21 +2.64
SD 1.75 1.12 1.82
CV 0.45 0.92 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 2 0 +0

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
1——14.29%7.14%7.14%—28.57%
2—14.29%———14.29%28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
47.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
5+———————
Total7.14%28.57%28.57%7.14%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 2.64 -0.71
SD 1.38 2.17 2.95
CV 0.72 0.82 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
114.29%21.43%14.29%—7.14%—57.14%
2———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.71 -0.43
SD 0.91 1.68 1.74
CV 0.71 0.98 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%——7.14%14.29%42.86%
1—7.14%14.29%—7.14%14.29%42.86%
2———————
3—14.29%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%35.71%14.29%—14.29%28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 3.14 -2.29
SD 1.03 2.80 3.22
CV 1.20 0.89 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
1——7.14%———7.14%
27.14%35.71%7.14%7.14%——57.14%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total21.43%57.14%14.29%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.07 +1.79
SD 2.68 0.83 3.12
CV 0.94 0.77 —
Max 11 3 +11
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——7.14%7.14%—21.43%
114.29%—14.29%—14.29%—42.86%
2—14.29%—7.14%——21.43%
3—7.14%————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%21.43%14.29%14.29%21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.79 -0.43
SD 1.15 1.58 2.28
CV 0.85 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%14.29%14.29%—42.86%
1——14.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%42.86%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3———————
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%—21.43%35.71%21.43%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.79 -1.93
SD 1.10 1.58 2.20
CV 1.28 0.57 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
17.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
27.14%—7.14%7.14%——21.43%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+———7.14%——7.14%
Total14.29%28.57%21.43%28.57%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.86 -0.21
SD 1.34 1.23 1.58
CV 0.81 0.66 —
Max 5 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%————21.43%
114.29%7.14%14.29%——7.14%42.86%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3———————
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total21.43%50.00%21.43%——7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.36 +0.50
SD 1.83 1.50 2.35
CV 0.99 1.10 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—28.57%7.14%14.29%14.29%—64.29%
27.14%———7.14%—14.29%
37.14%—————7.14%
4————7.14%—7.14%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total14.29%28.57%14.29%14.29%28.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 2.14 -0.21
SD 1.73 1.51 2.29
CV 0.90 0.71 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
1—14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
2—7.14%————7.14%
37.14%—————7.14%
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+7.14%14.29%————21.43%
Total21.43%50.00%14.29%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.29 +1.14
SD 2.03 1.14 2.68
CV 0.83 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
1—7.14%7.14%7.14%—7.14%28.57%
2—14.29%14.29%——7.14%35.71%
37.14%—14.29%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%42.86%7.14%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.00 -0.36
SD 1.01 1.52 1.86
CV 0.61 0.76 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%14.29%—7.14%42.86%
1—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
3——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%28.57%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 2.29 -1.21
SD 1.14 2.70 3.17
CV 1.07 1.18 —
Max 3 11 +2
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———7.14%——7.14%
17.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%—35.71%
27.14%—21.43%———28.57%
37.14%—14.29%——7.14%28.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%42.86%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.86 -0.07
SD 0.97 1.46 1.73
CV 0.55 0.79 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 27 19.19 +7.81
2 Asker 23 17.62 +5.38
3 Varegg 11 9.12 +1.88
4 Larvik Turn 21 20.27 +0.73
5 Viking 15 14.42 +0.58

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ranheim 3 9.91 -6.91
2 Kvik Trondheim 6 9.39 -3.39
3 Sarpsborg 11 13.81 -2.81
4 Brann 11 12.87 -1.87
5 IF Odd 12 13.48 -1.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredrikstad 11 Aug 28 – May 27 1 in 347
2 Asker 6 Aug 17 – Oct 23 1 in 78
3 Frigg Oslo 3 May 13 – May 27 1 in 25
4 Sandefjord 4 Oct 2 – Oct 23 1 in 19
5 Larvik Turn 6 Aug 28 – Oct 23 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ranheim 8 Oct 16 – May 27 1 in 131
2 Valerenga 2 Sep 18 – Oct 2 1 in 18
3 Rapid Moss 4 Oct 9 – Oct 31 1 in 16
4 Sarpsborg 3 Oct 16 – May 6 1 in 14
5 Kvik Trondheim 5 Sep 4 – Apr 29 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Varegg 5 Aug 7 – Oct 2 1 in 83
2 Fredrikstad 14 Jul 31 – May 27 1 in 38
3 Rapid Moss 5 May 6 – May 27 1 in 21
4 Asker 8 Jul 31 – Oct 23 1 in 18
5 Viking 5 Oct 16 – May 6 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 6 Jul 31 – Oct 9 1 in 23
2 Sarpsborg 6 Oct 9 – May 13 1 in 21
3 IF Odd 5 Aug 28 – Oct 9 1 in 14
4 Sandefjord 4 May 6 – May 21 1 in 11
5 Ranheim 8 Oct 16 – May 27 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad50.17%26.01%13.89%6.19%2.56%0.80%0.29%0.09%
Asker23.60%29.90%24.77%12.23%5.78%2.55%0.82%0.35%
Larvik Turn74.67%15.36%5.78%2.44%1.07%0.49%0.16%0.03%
Skeid20.68%28.36%26.73%13.89%6.28%2.67%1.10%0.29%
Sandefjord10.02%29.51%20.43%14.41%11.17%7.44%5.12%1.90%
Viking5.15%16.12%18.85%17.80%15.44%13.30%9.03%4.31%
Valerenga3.44%11.55%14.75%15.70%16.29%16.46%14.19%7.62%
Lillestrom1.44%4.56%10.24%20.00%23.22%19.59%13.32%7.63%
Rapid Moss1.86%7.25%11.00%14.57%16.36%17.65%19.29%12.02%
IF Odd2.91%10.45%13.46%15.84%16.98%16.46%15.39%8.51%
Frigg Oslo0.64%2.42%6.31%13.89%19.87%24.58%19.23%13.06%
Brann1.83%8.99%13.83%15.90%16.85%16.83%16.42%9.35%
Sarpsborg3.20%7.65%14.34%24.57%22.20%15.02%8.60%4.42%
Varegg0.12%0.77%1.90%3.34%5.84%11.37%20.40%56.26%
Kvik Trondheim0.08%0.47%1.55%4.02%8.89%16.12%26.80%42.07%
Ranheim0.19%0.63%2.17%5.21%11.20%18.67%29.84%32.09%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.39%
Slight Edge
47.32%18.75%33.93%
Elo Value
Home Edge
106 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
046.81300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2+0.44+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
50%
Fredrikstad, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Tight Race
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.48 * Some Luck: 2.48 to 3.71 * Lucky: 3.71 to 4.95 * Wild Swing: 4.95 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.14 * Close: 2.14 to 3.21 * Off: 3.21 to 4.28 * Way Off: 4.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.24 points
Some Luck
03.098
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.62
Pinpoint
02.676
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.95%
Fredrikstad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
0.98%
Ranheim
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.60
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
92%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.17
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.91
Near-Lock
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.37
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.48
Very Underconfident
0.3784541.001.62155
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.092
Well Within Noise
00.1590.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
Larvik Turn — —
Asker 75.23% 1.17%
Skeid 77.93% 1.39%
Sandefjord 82.96% 7.02%
Sarpsborg 83.78% 13.02%
Viking 81.51% 13.34%
Lillestrom 77.61% 20.95%
Valerenga 74.75% 21.81%
IF Odd 73.19% 23.90%
Brann 72.40% 25.77%
Rapid Moss 66.83% 31.31%
Frigg Oslo 67.07% 32.29%
Ranheim 37.88% 61.93%
Kvik Trondheim 31.05% 68.87%
Varegg 23.22% 76.66%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AskerBrannFredrikstadIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromRapid MossSandefjordSarpsborgSkeidValerengaViking
Asker100.0%2.00%42.9%28.00%0.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%
Brann0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%34.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%
IF Odd0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Larvik Turn57.1%28.00%50.0%34.00%100.0%1.00%53.8%13.00%
Lillestrom0.0%1.00%
Rapid Moss100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Sandefjord0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Sarpsborg0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Skeid0.0%1.00%46.2%13.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Valerenga100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Viking25.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 58.76%
Larvik Turn 41.24%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadLarvik Turn
Fredrikstad58.8%100.00%
Larvik Turn41.2%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1955-07-31 Fredrikstad L 2-7 1398 1531 32.2% 19.6% 48.2% -25.1 0
1955-07-31 @ Frigg Oslo W 7-2 1531 1398 48.2% 19.6% 32.2% +25.1 2
1955-07-31 Asker L 1-2 1341 1489 30.2% 19.6% 50.3% -7.4 0
1955-07-31 @ Kvik Trondheim W 2-1 1489 1341 50.3% 19.6% 30.2% +7.4 2
1955-07-31 Ranheim W 2-1 1431 1385 55.8% 19.6% 24.7% +6.2 2
1955-07-31 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1385 1431 24.7% 19.6% 55.8% -6.2 0
1955-07-31 Brann W 3-1 1430 1418 51.8% 19.7% 28.5% +12.2 2
1955-07-31 @ IF Odd L 1-3 1418 1430 28.5% 19.7% 51.8% -12.2 0
1955-07-31 Rapid Moss W 4-1 1447 1398 56.1% 19.6% 24.3% +15.0 2
1955-07-31 @ Sandefjord L 1-4 1398 1447 24.3% 19.6% 56.1% -15.0 0
1955-07-31 Skeid D 1-1 1419 1510 37.7% 19.7% 42.6% +0.2 1
1955-07-31 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1510 1419 42.6% 19.7% 37.7% -0.2 1
1955-07-31 Viking D 2-2 1427 1433 49.5% 19.7% 30.8% -0.7 1
1955-07-31 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1433 1427 30.8% 19.7% 49.5% +0.7 1
1955-07-31 Larvik Turn L 0-11 1327 1539 22.9% 19.3% 57.9% -57.4 0
1955-07-31 @ Varegg W 11-0 1539 1327 57.9% 19.3% 22.9% +57.4 2
1955-08-07 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1496 1419 59.1% 19.4% 21.4% -2.1 3
1955-08-07 @ Asker D 1-1 1419 1496 21.4% 19.4% 59.1% +2.1 2
1955-08-07 Sandefjord W 2-1 1406 1462 42.6% 19.7% 37.6% +8.8 2
1955-08-07 @ Brann L 1-2 1462 1406 37.6% 19.7% 42.6% -8.8 2
1955-08-07 Lillestrom W 4-1 1556 1437 63.1% 19.2% 17.6% +11.3 4
1955-08-07 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1437 1556 17.6% 19.2% 63.1% -11.3 2
1955-08-07 Valerenga W 3-1 1597 1426 67.4% 18.9% 13.7% +6.3 4
1955-08-07 @ Larvik Turn L 1-3 1426 1597 13.7% 18.9% 67.4% -6.3 1
1955-08-07 Frigg Oslo L 0-4 1379 1373 51.0% 19.7% 29.3% -43.3 0
1955-08-07 @ Ranheim W 4-0 1373 1379 29.3% 19.7% 51.0% +43.3 2
1955-08-07 IF Odd W 2-0 1383 1443 42.3% 19.7% 38.0% +17.8 2
1955-08-07 @ Rapid Moss L 0-2 1443 1383 38.0% 19.7% 42.3% -17.8 2
1955-08-07 Kvik Trondheim W 5-1 1510 1333 67.9% 18.9% 13.2% +11.2 3
1955-08-07 @ Skeid L 1-5 1333 1510 13.2% 18.9% 67.9% -11.2 0
1955-08-07 Varegg D 2-2 1434 1270 66.9% 19.0% 14.1% -2.3 2
1955-08-07 @ Viking D 2-2 1270 1434 14.1% 19.0% 66.9% +2.3 1
1955-08-15 Brann W 3-2 1272 1414 30.9% 19.6% 49.6% +10.5 3
1955-08-15 @ Varegg L 2-3 1414 1272 49.6% 19.6% 30.9% -10.5 2
1955-08-16 Rapid Moss W 3-2 1420 1401 52.6% 19.6% 27.8% +6.5 3
1955-08-16 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1401 1420 27.8% 19.6% 52.6% -6.5 2
1955-08-17 Skeid L 1-2 1416 1521 35.9% 19.7% 44.5% -8.5 2
1955-08-17 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1521 1416 44.5% 19.7% 35.9% +8.5 5
1955-08-17 Asker L 1-4 1426 1494 41.0% 19.7% 39.2% -23.2 2
1955-08-17 @ Lillestrom W 4-1 1494 1426 39.2% 19.7% 41.0% +23.2 5
1955-08-17 Larvik Turn W 1-0 1425 1603 26.6% 19.4% 54.0% +12.7 4
1955-08-17 @ IF Odd L 0-1 1603 1425 54.0% 19.4% 26.6% -12.7 4
1955-08-17 Viking D 1-1 1454 1431 53.0% 19.6% 27.4% -1.4 3
1955-08-17 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1431 1454 27.4% 19.6% 53.0% +1.4 3
1955-08-17 Fredrikstad D 4-4 1421 1567 30.4% 19.6% 50.0% +0.6 3
1955-08-17 @ Sarpsborg D 4-4 1567 1421 50.0% 19.6% 30.4% -0.6 5
1955-08-18 Ranheim D 0-0 1322 1336 48.5% 19.7% 31.8% -1.0 1
1955-08-18 @ Kvik Trondheim D 0-0 1336 1322 31.8% 19.7% 48.5% +1.0 1
1955-08-27 Frigg Oslo W 2-1 1517 1408 62.3% 19.3% 18.4% +4.8 7
1955-08-27 @ Asker L 1-2 1408 1517 18.4% 19.3% 62.3% -4.8 2
1955-08-28 Valerenga D 2-2 1404 1426 47.3% 19.7% 33.0% -0.6 3
1955-08-28 @ Brann D 2-2 1426 1404 33.0% 19.7% 47.3% +0.6 4
1955-08-28 Ranheim W 3-2 1567 1336 71.4% 18.5% 10.1% +2.6 7
1955-08-28 @ Fredrikstad L 2-3 1336 1567 10.1% 18.5% 71.4% -2.6 1
1955-08-28 Sarpsborg W 3-1 1321 1422 36.4% 19.7% 43.9% +17.3 3
1955-08-28 @ Kvik Trondheim L 1-3 1422 1321 43.9% 19.7% 36.4% -17.3 3
1955-08-28 Viking W 3-0 1590 1433 66.4% 19.0% 14.6% +11.3 6
1955-08-28 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1433 1590 14.6% 19.0% 66.4% -11.3 3
1955-08-28 Varegg D 3-3 1394 1282 62.6% 19.3% 18.1% -1.5 3
1955-08-28 @ Rapid Moss D 3-3 1282 1394 18.1% 19.3% 62.6% +1.5 4
1955-08-28 IF Odd W 4-1 1452 1438 52.1% 19.6% 28.3% +17.1 5
1955-08-28 @ Sandefjord L 1-4 1438 1452 28.3% 19.6% 52.1% -17.1 4
1955-08-28 Lillestrom W 3-0 1530 1403 63.9% 19.2% 16.9% +12.9 7
1955-08-28 @ Skeid L 0-3 1403 1530 16.9% 19.2% 63.9% -12.9 2
1955-09-04 Kvik Trondheim W 4-1 1403 1338 57.9% 19.5% 22.7% +14.1 4
1955-09-04 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-4 1338 1403 22.7% 19.5% 57.9% -14.1 3
1955-09-04 Valerenga L 1-2 1420 1427 49.4% 19.7% 30.9% -11.1 4
1955-09-04 @ IF Odd W 2-1 1427 1420 30.9% 19.7% 49.4% +11.1 6
1955-09-18 Rapid Moss L 1-3 1403 1393 51.6% 19.7% 28.8% -20.0 3
1955-09-18 @ Brann W 3-1 1393 1403 28.8% 19.7% 51.6% +20.0 5
1955-09-18 Fredrikstad L 0-4 1324 1569 19.7% 19.1% 61.2% -19.2 3
1955-09-18 @ Kvik Trondheim W 4-0 1569 1324 61.2% 19.1% 19.7% +19.2 9
1955-09-18 Frigg Oslo W 4-0 1390 1417 46.7% 19.7% 33.6% +30.6 4
1955-09-18 @ Lillestrom L 0-4 1417 1390 33.6% 19.7% 46.7% -30.6 4
1955-09-18 Viking D 1-1 1409 1422 48.7% 19.7% 31.6% -0.9 5
1955-09-18 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1422 1409 31.6% 19.7% 48.7% +0.9 4
1955-09-18 Larvik Turn L 1-2 1469 1602 32.2% 19.6% 48.2% -7.8 5
1955-09-18 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1602 1469 48.2% 19.6% 32.2% +7.8 8
1955-09-18 Ranheim W 2-0 1404 1334 58.5% 19.5% 22.1% +11.3 5
1955-09-18 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1334 1404 22.1% 19.5% 58.5% -11.3 1
1955-09-18 Asker L 1-2 1542 1522 52.8% 19.6% 27.6% -11.8 7
1955-09-18 @ Skeid W 2-1 1522 1542 27.6% 19.6% 52.8% +11.8 9
1955-09-18 Varegg L 0-2 1438 1284 66.2% 19.1% 14.8% -29.3 6
1955-09-18 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1284 1438 14.8% 19.1% 66.2% +29.3 6
1955-10-02 Brann W 2-1 1609 1383 71.1% 18.5% 10.3% +2.8 10
1955-10-02 @ Larvik Turn L 1-2 1383 1609 10.3% 18.5% 71.1% -2.8 3
1955-10-02 Sandefjord L 2-5 1409 1461 43.2% 19.7% 37.1% -21.0 6
1955-10-02 @ Valerenga W 5-2 1461 1409 37.1% 19.7% 43.2% +21.0 7
1955-10-02 IF Odd D 1-1 1313 1408 37.2% 19.7% 43.1% +0.3 7
1955-10-02 @ Varegg D 1-1 1408 1313 43.1% 19.7% 37.2% -0.3 6
1955-10-02 Sarpsborg L 2-7 1387 1416 46.5% 19.7% 33.8% -34.0 4
1955-10-02 @ Frigg Oslo W 7-2 1416 1387 33.8% 19.7% 46.5% +34.0 7
1955-10-09 Kvik Trondheim W 9-0 1534 1305 71.3% 18.5% 10.2% +22.6 11
1955-10-09 @ Asker L 0-9 1305 1534 10.2% 18.5% 71.3% -22.6 3
1955-10-09 Frigg Oslo W 2-0 1588 1353 71.7% 18.4% 9.8% +5.4 11
1955-10-09 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1353 1588 9.8% 18.4% 71.7% -5.3 4
1955-10-09 Lillestrom W 4-0 1323 1420 36.8% 19.7% 43.5% +37.7 3
1955-10-09 @ Ranheim L 0-4 1420 1323 43.5% 19.7% 36.8% -37.7 4
1955-10-09 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1531 1450 59.6% 19.4% 21.0% -2.1 8
1955-10-09 @ Skeid D 1-1 1450 1531 21.0% 19.4% 59.6% +2.1 8
1955-10-09 IF Odd W 6-2 1381 1408 46.7% 19.7% 33.7% +21.6 5
1955-10-09 @ Brann L 2-6 1408 1381 33.7% 19.7% 46.7% -21.6 6
1955-10-09 Varegg W 2-0 1612 1313 75.0% 17.8% 7.1% +3.9 12
1955-10-09 @ Larvik Turn L 0-2 1313 1612 7.1% 17.8% 75.0% -3.9 7
1955-10-09 Sandefjord L 0-1 1413 1482 40.8% 19.7% 39.5% -10.0 5
1955-10-09 @ Rapid Moss W 1-0 1482 1413 39.5% 19.7% 40.8% +10.0 9
1955-10-09 Valerenga L 1-2 1422 1388 54.5% 19.6% 25.9% -12.1 4
1955-10-09 @ Viking W 2-1 1388 1422 25.9% 19.6% 54.5% +12.1 8
1955-10-16 Ranheim W 3-1 1347 1360 48.6% 19.7% 31.7% +13.3 6
1955-10-16 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-3 1360 1347 31.7% 19.7% 48.6% -13.3 3
1955-10-16 Skeid L 0-5 1282 1529 19.6% 19.1% 61.4% -23.6 3
1955-10-16 @ Kvik Trondheim W 5-0 1529 1282 61.4% 19.1% 19.6% +23.6 10
1955-10-16 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1383 1594 23.0% 19.3% 57.7% -5.5 4
1955-10-16 @ Lillestrom W 3-2 1594 1383 57.7% 19.3% 23.0% +5.5 13
1955-10-16 Asker L 1-4 1452 1556 35.9% 19.7% 44.4% -20.8 8
1955-10-16 @ Sarpsborg W 4-1 1556 1452 44.4% 19.7% 35.9% +20.8 13
1955-10-16 Rapid Moss W 3-1 1387 1403 48.1% 19.7% 32.2% +13.5 8
1955-10-16 @ IF Odd L 1-3 1403 1387 32.2% 19.7% 48.1% -13.5 5
1955-10-16 Brann W 1-0 1492 1402 60.5% 19.4% 20.1% +5.5 11
1955-10-16 @ Sandefjord L 0-1 1402 1492 20.1% 19.4% 60.5% -5.5 5
1955-10-16 Larvik Turn L 1-2 1400 1616 22.5% 19.3% 58.3% -5.7 8
1955-10-16 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1616 1400 58.3% 19.3% 22.5% +5.7 14
1955-10-16 Viking L 0-3 1310 1410 36.4% 19.7% 43.9% -25.0 7
1955-10-16 @ Varegg W 3-0 1410 1310 43.9% 19.7% 36.4% +25.0 6
1955-10-23 Asker L 0-4 1347 1577 21.1% 19.2% 59.7% -20.5 3
1955-10-23 @ Ranheim W 4-0 1577 1347 59.7% 19.2% 21.1% +20.5 15
1955-10-23 Larvik Turn L 1-2 1389 1622 20.9% 19.2% 60.0% -5.3 5
1955-10-23 @ Rapid Moss W 2-1 1622 1389 60.0% 19.2% 20.9% +5.3 16
1955-10-23 Sandefjord L 1-2 1285 1498 22.8% 19.3% 58.0% -5.8 7
1955-10-23 @ Varegg W 2-1 1498 1285 58.0% 19.3% 22.8% +5.8 13
1955-10-23 Brann D 2-2 1435 1397 54.9% 19.6% 25.5% -1.2 7
1955-10-23 @ Viking D 2-2 1397 1435 25.5% 19.6% 54.9% +1.2 6
1955-10-30 Fredrikstad L 2-4 1598 1599 50.0% 19.7% 30.3% -17.4 15
1955-10-30 @ Asker W 4-2 1599 1598 30.3% 19.7% 50.0% +17.4 15
1955-10-30 Lillestrom L 1-2 1431 1377 56.7% 19.5% 23.8% -12.6 8
1955-10-30 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1377 1431 23.8% 19.5% 56.7% +12.6 6
1955-10-31 Rapid Moss W 2-0 1434 1384 56.2% 19.6% 24.2% +12.2 9
1955-10-31 @ Viking L 0-2 1384 1434 24.2% 19.6% 56.2% -12.2 5
1956-04-29 Ranheim W 6-1 1552 1327 71.1% 18.5% 10.4% +10.9 12
1956-04-29 @ Skeid L 1-6 1327 1552 10.4% 18.5% 71.1% -10.9 3
1956-04-29 Kvik Trondheim W 1-0 1390 1259 64.2% 19.2% 16.6% +4.6 8
1956-04-29 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1259 1390 16.6% 19.2% 64.2% -4.6 3
1956-04-29 Larvik Turn W 3-2 1446 1627 26.3% 19.4% 54.3% +11.4 11
1956-04-29 @ Viking L 2-3 1627 1446 54.3% 19.4% 26.3% -11.5 16
1956-05-06 Lillestrom W 2-1 1580 1394 68.5% 18.8% 12.7% +3.4 17
1956-05-06 @ Asker L 1-2 1394 1580 12.7% 18.8% 68.5% -3.4 8
1956-05-06 Varegg L 1-2 1398 1279 63.2% 19.2% 17.6% -14.0 6
1956-05-06 @ Brann W 2-1 1279 1398 17.6% 19.2% 63.2% +14.0 9
1956-05-06 Sarpsborg W 4-1 1617 1418 69.4% 18.7% 11.9% +7.9 17
1956-05-06 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1418 1617 11.9% 18.7% 69.4% -7.8 8
1956-05-06 IF Odd W 2-1 1616 1400 70.5% 18.6% 10.9% +3.0 18
1956-05-06 @ Larvik Turn L 1-2 1400 1616 10.9% 18.6% 70.5% -3.0 8
1956-05-06 Kvik Trondheim L 1-3 1316 1254 57.5% 19.5% 23.0% -22.1 3
1956-05-06 @ Ranheim W 3-1 1254 1316 23.0% 19.5% 57.5% +22.1 5
1956-05-06 Valerenga D 1-1 1372 1394 47.3% 19.7% 33.0% -0.8 6
1956-05-06 @ Rapid Moss D 1-1 1394 1372 33.0% 19.7% 47.3% +0.8 9
1956-05-06 Frigg Oslo W 4-1 1563 1361 69.7% 18.7% 11.6% +7.7 14
1956-05-06 @ Skeid L 1-4 1361 1563 11.6% 18.7% 69.7% -7.7 6
1956-05-06 Sandefjord W 1-0 1458 1504 44.1% 19.7% 36.1% +9.1 13
1956-05-06 @ Viking L 0-1 1504 1458 36.1% 19.7% 44.1% -9.1 13
1956-05-10 Asker L 1-3 1353 1584 21.0% 19.2% 59.8% -9.3 6
1956-05-10 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-1 1584 1353 59.8% 19.2% 21.0% +9.3 19
1956-05-10 Skeid D 0-0 1391 1571 26.4% 19.4% 54.2% +1.7 9
1956-05-10 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1571 1391 54.2% 19.4% 26.4% -1.7 15
1956-05-10 Sandefjord W 1-0 1397 1495 36.9% 19.7% 43.5% +10.5 10
1956-05-10 @ IF Odd L 0-1 1495 1397 43.5% 19.7% 36.9% -10.5 13
1956-05-10 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1294 1624 13.0% 18.5% 68.5% -10.0 3
1956-05-10 @ Ranheim W 3-0 1624 1294 68.5% 18.5% 13.0% +10.0 19
1956-05-10 Kvik Trondheim D 1-1 1411 1276 64.5% 19.2% 16.3% -2.7 9
1956-05-10 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1276 1411 16.3% 19.2% 64.5% +2.7 6
1956-05-10 Brann W 3-2 1395 1384 51.7% 19.7% 28.7% +6.7 11
1956-05-10 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1384 1395 28.7% 19.7% 51.7% -6.7 6
1956-05-10 Rapid Moss L 0-1 1293 1371 39.6% 19.7% 40.7% -9.8 9
1956-05-10 @ Varegg W 1-0 1371 1293 40.7% 19.7% 39.6% +9.8 8
1956-05-13 Viking W 4-1 1377 1467 38.0% 19.7% 42.4% +23.8 8
1956-05-13 @ Brann L 1-4 1467 1377 42.4% 19.7% 38.0% -23.8 13
1956-05-13 Asker W 2-1 1635 1593 55.3% 19.6% 25.1% +6.3 21
1956-05-13 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1593 1635 25.1% 19.6% 55.3% -6.3 19
1956-05-13 Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1279 1344 41.5% 19.7% 38.8% -9.6 6
1956-05-13 @ Kvik Trondheim W 2-1 1344 1279 38.8% 19.7% 41.5% +9.6 8
1956-05-13 Rapid Moss D 2-2 1619 1381 71.8% 18.4% 9.7% -2.7 19
1956-05-13 @ Larvik Turn D 2-2 1381 1619 9.7% 18.4% 71.8% +2.7 9
1956-05-13 Sarpsborg W 3-1 1393 1408 48.3% 19.7% 32.0% +13.4 11
1956-05-13 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1408 1393 32.0% 19.7% 48.3% -13.4 9
1956-05-13 Skeid L 1-4 1284 1569 16.2% 18.8% 65.0% -10.4 3
1956-05-13 @ Ranheim W 4-1 1569 1284 65.0% 18.8% 16.2% +10.4 17
1956-05-13 Varegg D 0-0 1484 1283 69.6% 18.7% 11.7% -3.8 14
1956-05-13 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1283 1484 11.7% 18.7% 69.6% +3.8 10
1956-05-13 IF Odd D 0-0 1402 1408 49.5% 19.7% 30.8% -1.1 12
1956-05-13 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1408 1402 30.8% 19.7% 49.5% +1.1 11
1956-05-16 Skeid W 2-0 1641 1579 57.5% 19.5% 23.0% +11.7 23
1956-05-16 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1579 1641 23.0% 19.5% 57.5% -11.7 17
1956-05-21 Skeid W 3-1 1587 1568 52.6% 19.6% 27.8% +11.9 21
1956-05-21 @ Asker L 1-3 1568 1587 27.8% 19.6% 52.6% -11.9 17
1956-05-21 Kvik Trondheim W 8-1 1652 1269 78.5% 16.9% 4.6% +6.6 25
1956-05-21 @ Fredrikstad L 1-8 1269 1652 4.6% 16.9% 78.5% -6.6 6
1956-05-21 Lillestrom W 2-1 1353 1406 43.2% 19.7% 37.1% +8.7 10
1956-05-21 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-2 1406 1353 37.1% 19.7% 43.2% -8.7 11
1956-05-21 Sandefjord W 6-1 1616 1480 64.6% 19.2% 16.2% +16.6 21
1956-05-21 @ Larvik Turn L 1-6 1480 1616 16.2% 19.2% 64.6% -16.6 14
1956-05-21 Sarpsborg L 0-3 1273 1394 33.6% 19.6% 46.7% -23.4 3
1956-05-21 @ Ranheim W 3-0 1394 1273 46.7% 19.6% 33.6% +23.4 11
1956-05-21 Brann D 1-1 1384 1401 48.0% 19.7% 32.3% -0.8 10
1956-05-21 @ Rapid Moss D 1-1 1401 1384 32.3% 19.7% 48.0% +0.8 9
1956-05-21 Valerenga L 0-3 1287 1401 34.6% 19.6% 45.7% -24.0 10
1956-05-21 @ Varegg W 3-0 1401 1287 45.7% 19.6% 34.6% +24.0 14
1956-05-21 IF Odd W 3-2 1443 1409 54.4% 19.6% 26.0% +6.2 15
1956-05-21 @ Viking L 2-3 1409 1443 26.0% 19.6% 54.4% -6.2 11
1956-05-27 Ranheim W 2-1 1598 1250 77.2% 17.3% 5.5% +1.5 23
1956-05-27 @ Asker L 1-2 1250 1598 5.5% 17.3% 77.2% -1.5 3
1956-05-27 Larvik Turn W 2-1 1402 1632 21.0% 19.2% 59.8% +13.2 11
1956-05-27 @ Brann L 1-2 1632 1402 59.8% 19.2% 21.0% -13.2 21
1956-05-27 Lillestrom L 0-1 1263 1397 31.9% 19.6% 48.5% -8.2 6
1956-05-27 @ Kvik Trondheim W 1-0 1397 1263 48.5% 19.6% 31.9% +8.2 13
1956-05-27 Varegg D 1-1 1403 1263 65.0% 19.1% 15.9% -2.8 12
1956-05-27 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1263 1403 15.9% 19.1% 65.0% +2.8 11
1956-05-27 Viking W 5-3 1383 1449 41.3% 19.7% 39.0% +13.3 12
1956-05-27 @ Rapid Moss L 3-5 1449 1383 39.0% 19.7% 41.3% -13.3 15
1956-05-27 Valerenga W 5-1 1464 1425 55.0% 19.6% 25.4% +20.1 16
1956-05-27 @ Sandefjord L 1-5 1425 1464 25.4% 19.6% 55.0% -20.1 14
1956-05-27 Frigg Oslo L 2-4 1418 1362 56.9% 19.5% 23.6% -19.6 11
1956-05-27 @ Sarpsborg W 4-2 1362 1418 23.6% 19.5% 56.9% +19.6 12
1956-05-27 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1556 1659 36.1% 19.7% 44.3% -20.9 17
1956-05-27 @ Skeid W 4-1 1659 1556 44.3% 19.7% 36.1% +20.9 27

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1956-06-03 Fredrikstad W 3-2 1619 1680 42.1% 19.7% 38.2% +8.5 1-0
1956-06-03 @ Larvik Turn L 2-3 1680 1619 38.2% 19.7% 42.1% -8.5 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1955-09-18 14.80% Varegg 1284 2 @ Valerenga 1438 0
2 1956-05-06 17.57% Varegg 1279 2 @ Brann 1398 1
3 1956-05-27 21.03% @ Brann 1402 2 Larvik Turn 1632 1
4 1956-05-06 22.99% Kvik Trondheim 1254 3 @ Ranheim 1316 1
5 1956-05-27 23.57% Frigg Oslo 1362 4 @ Sarpsborg 1418 2
6 1955-10-30 23.80% Lillestrom 1377 2 @ Sarpsborg 1431 1
7 1955-10-09 25.93% Valerenga 1388 2 @ Viking 1422 1
8 1956-04-29 26.29% @ Viking 1446 3 Larvik Turn 1627 2
9 1955-08-17 26.58% @ IF Odd 1425 1 Larvik Turn 1603 0
10 1955-09-18 27.56% Asker 1522 2 @ Skeid 1542 1
11 1955-09-18 28.78% Rapid Moss 1393 3 @ Brann 1403 1
12 1955-08-07 29.35% Frigg Oslo 1373 4 @ Ranheim 1379 0
13 1955-10-30 30.29% Fredrikstad 1599 4 @ Asker 1598 2
14 1955-08-15 30.87% @ Varegg 1272 3 Brann 1414 2
15 1955-09-04 30.90% Valerenga 1427 2 @ IF Odd 1420 1
16 1955-10-02 33.83% Sarpsborg 1416 7 @ Frigg Oslo 1387 2
17 1955-08-28 36.43% @ Kvik Trondheim 1321 3 Sarpsborg 1422 1
18 1955-10-09 36.84% @ Ranheim 1323 4 Lillestrom 1420 0
19 1956-05-10 36.86% @ IF Odd 1397 1 Sandefjord 1495 0
20 1955-10-02 37.08% Sandefjord 1461 5 @ Valerenga 1409 2
21 1956-05-13 37.97% @ Brann 1377 4 Viking 1467 1
22 1956-05-13 38.75% Frigg Oslo 1344 2 @ Kvik Trondheim 1279 1
23 1955-08-17 39.24% Asker 1494 4 @ Lillestrom 1426 1
24 1955-10-09 39.47% Sandefjord 1482 1 @ Rapid Moss 1413 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1955-07-31 57.40 Larvik Turn 11 1539 57.87% @ Varegg 0 1327 22.85% 19.28%
2 1955-08-07 43.29 Frigg Oslo 4 1373 29.35% @ Ranheim 0 1379 50.99% 19.66%
3 1955-10-09 37.67 @ Ranheim 4 1323 36.84% Lillestrom 0 1420 43.48% 19.67%
4 1955-10-02 34.05 Sarpsborg 7 1416 33.83% @ Frigg Oslo 2 1387 46.47% 19.70%
5 1955-09-18 30.56 @ Lillestrom 4 1390 46.68% Frigg Oslo 0 1417 33.62% 19.70%
6 1955-09-18 29.33 Varegg 2 1284 14.80% @ Valerenga 0 1438 66.16% 19.05%
7 1955-07-31 25.14 Fredrikstad 7 1531 48.23% @ Frigg Oslo 2 1398 32.17% 19.60%
8 1955-10-16 24.96 Viking 3 1410 43.91% @ Varegg 0 1310 36.43% 19.67%
9 1956-05-21 23.96 Valerenga 3 1401 45.70% @ Varegg 0 1287 34.65% 19.64%
10 1956-05-13 23.79 @ Brann 4 1377 37.97% Viking 1 1467 42.35% 19.68%
11 1955-10-16 23.58 Skeid 5 1529 61.35% @ Kvik Trondheim 0 1282 19.56% 19.09%
12 1956-05-21 23.39 Sarpsborg 3 1394 46.73% @ Ranheim 0 1273 33.64% 19.63%
13 1955-08-17 23.20 Asker 4 1494 39.24% @ Lillestrom 1 1426 41.05% 19.71%
14 1955-10-09 22.63 @ Asker 9 1534 71.31% Kvik Trondheim 0 1305 10.19% 18.49%
15 1956-05-06 22.11 Kvik Trondheim 3 1254 22.99% @ Ranheim 1 1316 57.50% 19.51%
16 1955-10-09 21.63 @ Brann 6 1381 46.65% IF Odd 2 1408 33.65% 19.70%
17 1955-10-02 20.96 Sandefjord 5 1461 37.08% @ Valerenga 2 1409 43.21% 19.71%
18 1956-05-27 20.89 Fredrikstad 4 1659 44.26% @ Skeid 1 1556 36.08% 19.66%
19 1955-10-16 20.81 Asker 4 1556 44.43% @ Sarpsborg 1 1452 35.91% 19.66%
20 1955-10-23 20.45 Asker 4 1577 59.74% @ Ranheim 0 1347 21.08% 19.19%
21 1956-05-27 20.13 @ Sandefjord 5 1464 55.01% Valerenga 1 1425 25.41% 19.58%
22 1955-09-18 19.96 Rapid Moss 3 1393 28.78% @ Brann 1 1403 51.57% 19.65%
23 1956-05-27 19.57 Frigg Oslo 4 1362 23.57% @ Sarpsborg 2 1418 56.90% 19.53%
24 1955-09-18 19.23 Fredrikstad 4 1569 61.23% @ Kvik Trondheim 0 1324 19.67% 19.10%
25 1955-08-07 17.81 @ Rapid Moss 2 1383 42.26% IF Odd 0 1443 38.03% 19.71%