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1954-55 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Larvik Turn

21 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sandefjord

5.07 points above expected

19 points · 13.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Strommen

6.94 points below expected

7 points · 13.94 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Larvik Turn 14 10 1 3 21 40 16 +24 16.40 +4.60
2 Fredrikstad 14 7 5 2 19 43 24 +19 17.70 +1.30
3 Skeid 14 9 1 4 19 34 22 +12 16.41 +2.59
4 Sandefjord 14 8 3 3 19 26 23 +3 13.93 +5.07
5 Asker 14 7 2 5 16 27 20 +7 15.53 +0.47
6 Viking 14 6 3 5 15 23 24 -1 14.04 +0.96
7 IF Odd 14 6 3 5 15 20 25 -5 13.63 +1.37
8 Valerenga 14 4 6 4 14 22 21 +1 12.91 +1.09
9 Brann 14 5 4 5 14 23 24 -1 12.35 +1.65
10 Lillestrom 14 6 2 6 14 27 30 -3 15.18 -1.18
11 Sarpsborg 14 5 4 5 14 27 33 -6 13.69 +0.31
12 Fram Larvik 14 6 1 7 13 21 24 -3 12.19 +0.81
13 Ranheim 14 4 2 8 10 20 29 -9 11.31 -1.31
14 Sarpsborg 08 14 1 6 7 8 21 28 -7 14.01 -6.01
15 Strommen 14 2 3 9 7 22 27 -5 13.94 -6.94
16 Freidig 14 2 2 10 6 13 39 -26 10.79 -4.79

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Larvik Turn 4
Fredrikstad 2

Sim: 8.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Larvik Turn 1630 21 16.40 +4.60 95.8% 6 11 14 16 18 21 26
Fredrikstad 1616 19 17.70 +1.30 72.6% 6 13 16 18 20 22 27
Skeid 1593 19 16.41 +2.59 84.8% 6 11 14 16 18 21 27
Asker 1557 16 15.53 +0.47 62.4% 5 11 14 16 18 20 27
Sandefjord 1508 19 13.93 +5.07 96.6% 1 9 12 14 16 19 26
Viking 1482 15 14.04 +0.96 68.2% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
IF Odd 1481 15 13.63 +1.37 72.6% 4 9 12 14 16 19 24
Lillestrom 1479 14 15.18 -1.18 41.7% 4 10 13 15 17 20 25
Strommen 1472 7 13.94 -6.94 1.8% 4 9 12 14 16 19 25
Valerenga 1471 14 12.91 +1.09 70.2% 2 8 11 13 15 18 25
Sarpsborg 08 1464 8 14.01 -6.01 3.7% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Sarpsborg 1462 14 13.69 +0.31 60.7% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Brann 1459 14 12.35 +1.65 76.6% 2 8 10 12 14 17 24
Fram Larvik 1417 13 12.19 +0.81 67.0% 2 7 10 12 14 17 23
Ranheim 1412 10 11.31 -1.31 39.9% 0 7 9 11 13 16 22
Freidig 1336 6 10.79 -4.79 7.4% 1 6 9 11 13 16 23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ASK BRA FL FRE FRE IO LT LIL RAN SAN SAR S0 SKE STR VAL VIK
Asker —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.51
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.71
0-0-2
3.14
1-0-1
3.20
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.46
1-1-0
3.18
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Brann
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
2.69
0-1-1
1.67
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.61
0-1-1
2.54
Fram Larvik
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.87
 —
0-0-2
1.66
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.58
2-0-0
2.44
Fredrikstad
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.91
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.32
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.78
1-1-0
3.39
Freidig
0-0-2
2.06
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.26
0-1-1
2.25
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.80
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.67
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.04
1-0-1
2.68
Larvik Turn
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.86
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.05
0-1-1
3.27
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.77
2-0-0
3.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lillestrom
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.14
2-0-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.45
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.01
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.84
Ranheim
1-0-1
1.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.13
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.93
2-0-0
2.23
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
2-0-0
2.42
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.29
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.30
 —
1-1-0
2.83
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.28
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
2.73
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.20
0-1-1
2.91
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg 08
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-2
3.22
0-2-0
1.87
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.88
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.54
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.81
Skeid
0-1-1
3.10
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.76
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.63
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
3.36
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Strommen
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.33
0-1-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.35
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Valerenga
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.95
0-1-1
2.98
1-1-0
1.79
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.51
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.30
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.72
Viking
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.01
0-0-2
3.12
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.88
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.83
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.63 +4.6
Allowed 0.52 -5.9
Differential 0.74 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%6.25%3.12%1.34%1.34%1.79%18.30%
16.25%11.61%5.36%5.80%1.34%2.68%33.04%
23.12%5.36%3.57%4.46%2.23%1.34%20.09%
31.34%5.80%4.46%1.79%1.34%0.89%15.62%
41.34%1.34%2.23%1.34%——6.25%
5+1.79%2.68%1.34%0.89%——6.70%
Total18.30%33.04%20.09%15.62%6.25%6.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.83 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.23
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
114.29%—7.14%14.29%——35.71%
2—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
3———————
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%—7.14%———14.29%
Total28.57%21.43%28.57%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.43 +0.50
SD 1.64 1.16 2.31
CV 0.85 0.81 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
1—21.43%————21.43%
214.29%14.29%—7.14%7.14%7.14%50.00%
3—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%50.00%—7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.71 -0.07
SD 0.93 1.82 1.69
CV 0.57 1.06 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%7.14%——21.43%
17.14%—14.29%14.29%——35.71%
214.29%———7.14%—21.43%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%14.29%21.43%28.57%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.71 -0.21
SD 1.22 1.38 1.85
CV 0.82 0.81 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
1—21.43%————21.43%
2————7.14%—7.14%
3—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
4—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
5+—14.29%—7.14%——21.43%
Total—64.29%7.14%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.07 1.71 +1.36
SD 2.02 1.07 2.17
CV 0.66 0.62 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%——7.14%7.14%35.71%
17.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%—14.29%42.86%
2———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%14.29%14.29%7.14%28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 2.79 -1.86
SD 0.92 2.15 2.21
CV 0.99 0.77 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————7.14%7.14%
114.29%21.43%—14.29%14.29%—64.29%
27.14%—————7.14%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%7.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.79 -0.36
SD 0.94 1.72 2.31
CV 0.66 0.96 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%7.14%————14.29%
27.14%7.14%—7.14%7.14%—28.57%
314.29%7.14%————21.43%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+7.14%14.29%————21.43%
Total35.71%42.86%—14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.14 +1.71
SD 1.88 1.29 2.33
CV 0.66 1.13 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—21.43%———28.57%
17.14%—7.14%——7.14%21.43%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
4—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total14.29%21.43%50.00%——14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 2.14 -0.21
SD 1.86 1.99 2.67
CV 0.96 0.93 —
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%——7.14%—28.57%
17.14%14.29%7.14%——7.14%35.71%
2—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
3——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total7.14%50.00%14.29%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 2.07 -0.64
SD 1.45 1.86 2.34
CV 1.02 0.90 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%——7.14%14.29%
17.14%21.43%—7.14%——35.71%
2—14.29%————14.29%
3—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
4—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
5+———————
Total7.14%50.00%28.57%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.64 +0.21
SD 1.35 1.22 2.04
CV 0.73 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
1—21.43%———7.14%28.57%
2———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
3—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
4———————
5+——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
Total7.14%35.71%21.43%14.29%—21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 2.36 -0.43
SD 1.69 1.82 2.47
CV 0.87 0.77 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%————21.43%
1—14.29%14.29%7.14%——35.71%
2——7.14%14.29%——21.43%
3———7.14%7.14%—14.29%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%21.43%35.71%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.00 -0.50
SD 1.22 1.24 0.76
CV 0.82 0.62 —
Max 4 4 +1
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
121.43%—————21.43%
2——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
3—14.29%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
47.14%—7.14%———14.29%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total28.57%28.57%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.57 +0.86
SD 1.87 1.55 2.41
CV 0.77 0.99 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%14.29%21.43%7.14%7.14%—57.14%
2——7.14%21.43%——28.57%
3———————
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total14.29%21.43%28.57%28.57%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.93 -0.36
SD 1.40 1.21 2.06
CV 0.89 0.63 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—7.14%—7.14%—35.71%
1—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
3——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total35.71%7.14%35.71%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.50 +0.07
SD 1.65 1.34 2.13
CV 1.05 0.90 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
1—14.29%—14.29%—7.14%35.71%
2—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
3—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%50.00%21.43%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.71 -0.07
SD 1.15 1.27 2.02
CV 0.70 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sandefjord 19 13.93 +5.07
2 Larvik Turn 21 16.40 +4.60
3 Skeid 19 16.41 +2.59
4 Brann 14 12.35 +1.65
5 IF Odd 15 13.63 +1.37

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Strommen 7 13.94 -6.94
2 Sarpsborg 08 8 14.01 -6.01
3 Freidig 6 10.79 -4.79
4 Ranheim 10 11.31 -1.31
5 Lillestrom 14 15.18 -1.18

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 3 May 1 – May 11 1 in 104
2 Larvik Turn 4 Aug 1 – Aug 22 1 in 45
3 Sandefjord 4 Oct 3 – May 1 1 in 36
4 Skeid 4 Aug 12 – Sep 12 1 in 28
5 Ranheim 2 May 15 – May 22 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strommen 5 Jul 25 – Aug 22 1 in 371
2 Sarpsborg 08 3 Aug 22 – Oct 3 1 in 40
3 Lillestrom 4 Oct 17 – May 15 1 in 37
4 Viking 2 Aug 1 – Aug 15 1 in 11
5 Valerenga 2 May 15 – May 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 6 Aug 1 – Oct 3 1 in 24
2 Sandefjord 6 Aug 22 – May 1 1 in 17
3 Fredrikstad 9 Aug 1 – May 4 1 in 15
4 Brann 3 Aug 1 – Aug 22 1 in 8
5 Larvik Turn 5 Jul 25 – Aug 22 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 08 13 Jul 25 – May 22 1 in 768
2 Strommen 6 Jul 25 – Sep 12 1 in 27
3 Valerenga 6 Aug 11 – Oct 17 1 in 26
4 Freidig 9 Sep 12 – May 30 1 in 20
5 Lillestrom 5 Oct 10 – May 15 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Larvik Turn32.03%21.31%15.60%11.93%8.61%5.80%3.29%1.43%
Fredrikstad51.29%20.61%12.54%6.61%4.22%2.61%1.45%0.67%
Skeid27.38%23.73%16.82%12.34%8.72%5.99%3.66%1.36%
Sandefjord7.49%11.06%15.12%16.26%16.28%15.23%11.77%6.79%
Asker17.94%19.18%18.58%15.27%12.15%8.57%5.57%2.74%
Viking8.77%14.63%14.68%14.84%13.76%13.08%10.95%9.29%
IF Odd6.70%11.36%12.71%13.41%14.04%14.50%13.70%13.58%
Valerenga4.84%9.33%11.90%13.25%14.26%15.44%15.85%15.13%
Brann3.26%6.73%9.41%12.22%14.04%15.23%18.46%20.65%
Lillestrom15.07%19.54%16.17%13.92%12.11%10.00%8.05%5.14%
Sarpsborg6.13%9.59%12.11%14.52%16.55%17.56%14.29%9.25%
Fram Larvik2.70%5.64%8.56%11.33%13.71%15.99%18.79%23.28%
Ranheim1.35%2.82%4.46%8.12%11.90%17.05%25.45%28.85%
Sarpsborg 087.37%12.16%14.03%14.42%13.86%13.15%12.75%12.26%
Strommen6.70%10.26%13.91%15.97%16.62%15.66%12.57%8.31%
Freidig0.98%2.05%3.40%5.59%9.17%14.14%23.40%41.27%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+23.21%
Clear Edge
50.89%21.43%27.68%
Elo Value
Home Edge
152 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
082.15400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.47 goals
Neutral
-2+0.54+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.5
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Larvik Turn, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.41 * Some Luck: 2.41 to 3.62 * Lucky: 3.62 to 4.83 * Wild Swing: 4.83 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.86 * Close: 2.86 to 4.28 * Off: 4.28 to 5.71 * Way Off: 5.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.29 points
Some Luck
03.028
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.88
Close
03.578
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
96.56%
Sandefjord
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.76%
Strommen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.19
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Very Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.18
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.44
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.61
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.87
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.100
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
Larvik Turn — —
Skeid 67.60% 5.02%
Asker 73.75% 8.31%
Lillestrom 71.74% 13.19%
Sandefjord 73.95% 18.56%
Viking 70.99% 20.24%
Strommen 72.42% 20.88%
Sarpsborg 70.33% 23.54%
Sarpsborg 08 67.62% 25.01%
IF Odd 66.02% 27.28%
Valerenga 64.18% 30.98%
Brann 57.63% 39.11%
Fram Larvik 55.23% 42.07%
Ranheim 44.35% 54.30%
Freidig 34.35% 64.67%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AskerBrannFram LarvikFredrikstadIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromRanheimSandefjordSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SkeidStrommenValerengaViking
Asker100.0%2.00%55.6%9.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%
Brann0.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Fram Larvik0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad44.4%9.00%63.6%22.00%100.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%64.7%17.00%75.0%4.00%
IF Odd0.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%
Larvik Turn100.0%2.00%36.4%22.00%80.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%
Lillestrom0.0%2.00%20.0%5.00%25.0%4.00%
Ranheim0.0%1.00%
Sandefjord0.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg100.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg 08100.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Skeid100.0%2.00%35.3%17.00%100.0%3.00%75.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Strommen100.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%
Valerenga0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Viking50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 51.36%
Larvik Turn 48.64%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadLarvik Turn
Fredrikstad51.4%100.00%
Larvik Turn48.6%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1954-07-25 Sandefjord L 1-2 1539 1474 61.4% 21.9% 16.7% -11.8 0
1954-07-25 @ Asker W 2-1 1474 1539 16.7% 21.9% 61.4% +11.8 2
1954-07-25 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1515 1485 58.1% 22.1% 19.7% -1.8 1
1954-07-25 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1485 1515 19.7% 22.1% 58.1% +1.8 1
1954-07-25 Brann W 6-2 1528 1437 63.6% 21.7% 14.8% +9.4 2
1954-07-25 @ Lillestrom L 2-6 1437 1528 14.8% 21.7% 63.6% -9.4 0
1954-07-25 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1490 1556 47.0% 22.5% 30.5% +6.9 2
1954-07-25 @ IF Odd L 0-1 1556 1490 30.5% 22.5% 47.0% -6.9 0
1954-07-25 Strommen W 3-2 1437 1518 45.2% 22.5% 32.3% +6.5 2
1954-07-25 @ Ranheim L 2-3 1518 1437 32.3% 22.5% 45.2% -6.5 0
1954-07-25 Fram Larvik L 3-4 1521 1409 65.3% 21.4% 13.3% -11.6 0
1954-07-25 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 4-3 1409 1521 13.3% 21.4% 65.3% +11.6 2
1954-07-25 Freidig W 1-0 1544 1450 63.9% 21.6% 14.5% +3.6 2
1954-07-25 @ Skeid L 0-1 1450 1544 14.5% 21.6% 63.9% -3.6 0
1954-07-25 Valerenga W 4-0 1486 1449 58.8% 22.1% 19.1% +16.7 2
1954-07-25 @ Viking L 0-4 1449 1486 19.1% 22.1% 58.8% -16.7 0
1954-08-01 Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1428 1510 45.0% 22.5% 32.4% +6.8 2
1954-08-01 @ Brann L 1-2 1510 1428 32.4% 22.5% 45.0% -6.8 0
1954-08-01 Lillestrom L 2-4 1421 1537 40.3% 22.5% 37.2% -12.5 2
1954-08-01 @ Fram Larvik W 4-2 1537 1421 37.2% 22.5% 40.3% +12.5 4
1954-08-01 Viking W 5-1 1549 1503 59.7% 22.0% 18.2% +13.3 2
1954-08-01 @ Fredrikstad L 1-5 1503 1549 18.2% 22.0% 59.7% -13.3 2
1954-08-01 Asker L 0-4 1446 1527 45.1% 22.5% 32.3% -33.7 0
1954-08-01 @ Freidig W 4-0 1527 1446 32.3% 22.5% 45.1% +33.7 2
1954-08-01 Skeid W 4-2 1486 1548 47.6% 22.5% 29.9% +9.9 4
1954-08-01 @ Sandefjord L 2-4 1548 1486 29.9% 22.5% 47.6% -9.9 2
1954-08-01 Ranheim W 3-2 1487 1444 59.4% 22.1% 18.6% +4.1 3
1954-08-01 @ Sarpsborg L 2-3 1444 1487 18.6% 22.1% 59.4% -4.1 2
1954-08-01 Larvik Turn L 1-2 1511 1513 54.8% 22.3% 22.9% -10.5 0
1954-08-01 @ Strommen W 2-1 1513 1511 22.9% 22.3% 54.8% +10.5 3
1954-08-01 IF Odd W 5-0 1433 1497 47.3% 22.5% 30.1% +30.1 2
1954-08-01 @ Valerenga L 0-5 1497 1433 30.1% 22.5% 47.3% -30.1 2
1954-08-11 Lillestrom D 2-2 1463 1550 44.3% 22.5% 33.1% -0.4 3
1954-08-11 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1550 1463 33.1% 22.5% 44.3% +0.4 5
1954-08-12 Skeid L 0-1 1501 1538 50.7% 22.5% 26.8% -10.4 0
1954-08-12 @ Strommen W 1-0 1538 1501 26.8% 22.5% 50.7% +10.4 4
1954-08-15 Strommen W 2-1 1561 1490 61.9% 21.8% 16.3% +3.8 4
1954-08-15 @ Asker L 1-2 1490 1561 16.3% 21.8% 61.9% -3.8 0
1954-08-15 Freidig W 5-1 1524 1413 65.2% 21.4% 13.3% +10.1 5
1954-08-15 @ Larvik Turn L 1-5 1413 1524 13.3% 21.4% 65.2% -10.0 0
1954-08-15 Fredrikstad L 1-7 1550 1563 53.5% 22.4% 24.1% -47.3 5
1954-08-15 @ Lillestrom W 7-1 1563 1550 24.1% 22.4% 53.5% +47.3 4
1954-08-15 Brann D 1-1 1467 1435 58.3% 22.1% 19.6% -1.8 3
1954-08-15 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1435 1467 19.6% 22.1% 58.3% +1.8 3
1954-08-15 Sandefjord D 1-1 1439 1495 48.4% 22.5% 29.1% -0.9 3
1954-08-15 @ Ranheim D 1-1 1495 1439 29.1% 22.5% 48.4% +0.9 5
1954-08-15 Valerenga D 0-0 1503 1462 59.1% 22.1% 18.8% -2.1 1
1954-08-15 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1462 1503 18.8% 22.1% 59.1% +2.2 4
1954-08-15 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1548 1491 60.7% 21.9% 17.3% +4.3 6
1954-08-15 @ Skeid L 0-1 1491 1548 17.3% 21.9% 60.7% -4.3 3
1954-08-15 Fram Larvik L 1-3 1490 1408 62.8% 21.8% 15.4% -20.9 2
1954-08-15 @ Viking W 3-1 1408 1490 15.4% 21.8% 62.8% +20.9 4
1954-08-18 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1610 1501 65.1% 21.5% 13.4% -2.5 5
1954-08-18 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1501 1610 13.4% 21.5% 65.1% +2.5 2
1954-08-18 Ranheim W 1-0 1403 1439 50.8% 22.5% 26.7% +6.2 2
1954-08-18 @ Freidig L 0-1 1439 1403 26.7% 22.5% 50.8% -6.2 3
1954-08-18 Larvik Turn L 0-2 1496 1534 50.7% 22.5% 26.9% -19.6 5
1954-08-18 @ Sandefjord W 2-0 1534 1496 26.9% 22.5% 50.7% +19.6 7
1954-08-19 IF Odd W 3-1 1429 1465 50.9% 22.5% 26.7% +10.1 6
1954-08-19 @ Fram Larvik L 1-3 1465 1429 26.7% 22.5% 50.9% -10.1 3
1954-08-19 Asker W 3-1 1486 1565 45.5% 22.5% 32.0% +11.7 5
1954-08-19 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1565 1486 32.0% 22.5% 45.5% -11.7 4
1954-08-22 Fram Larvik W 3-1 1608 1439 69.2% 20.8% 10.0% +4.2 7
1954-08-22 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1439 1608 10.0% 20.8% 69.2% -4.2 6
1954-08-22 Asker W 3-0 1553 1553 55.0% 22.3% 22.7% +14.8 9
1954-08-22 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1553 1553 22.7% 22.3% 55.0% -14.8 4
1954-08-22 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-2 1455 1503 49.3% 22.5% 28.2% +5.8 5
1954-08-22 @ IF Odd L 2-3 1503 1455 28.2% 22.5% 49.3% -5.8 2
1954-08-22 Skeid L 1-7 1432 1553 39.7% 22.5% 37.8% -36.6 3
1954-08-22 @ Ranheim W 7-1 1553 1432 37.8% 22.5% 39.7% +36.6 8
1954-08-22 Sandefjord D 1-1 1498 1477 57.2% 22.2% 20.5% -1.7 6
1954-08-22 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1477 1498 20.5% 22.2% 57.2% +1.7 6
1954-08-22 Freidig L 2-3 1487 1409 62.5% 21.8% 15.7% -11.4 0
1954-08-22 @ Strommen W 3-2 1409 1487 15.7% 21.8% 62.5% +11.4 4
1954-08-22 Brann D 0-0 1464 1437 57.9% 22.2% 19.9% -2.0 5
1954-08-22 @ Valerenga D 0-0 1437 1464 19.9% 22.2% 57.9% +2.0 4
1954-08-22 Lillestrom W 2-1 1469 1503 51.1% 22.4% 26.5% +5.8 4
1954-08-22 @ Viking L 1-2 1503 1469 26.5% 22.4% 51.1% -5.8 5
1954-09-12 Ranheim W 2-1 1538 1396 67.5% 21.1% 11.4% +2.8 6
1954-09-12 @ Asker L 1-2 1396 1538 11.4% 21.1% 67.5% -2.8 3
1954-09-12 Fredrikstad L 2-4 1439 1612 32.4% 22.3% 45.3% -10.5 4
1954-09-12 @ Brann W 4-2 1612 1439 45.3% 22.3% 32.4% +10.5 9
1954-09-12 Valerenga D 0-0 1435 1462 51.9% 22.4% 25.7% -1.3 7
1954-09-12 @ Fram Larvik D 0-0 1462 1435 25.7% 22.4% 51.9% +1.3 6
1954-09-12 Sarpsborg L 2-5 1420 1496 45.8% 22.5% 31.7% -19.0 4
1954-09-12 @ Freidig W 5-2 1496 1420 31.7% 22.5% 45.8% +19.1 8
1954-09-12 IF Odd W 4-1 1497 1460 58.8% 22.1% 19.1% +10.8 7
1954-09-12 @ Lillestrom L 1-4 1460 1497 19.1% 22.1% 58.8% -10.8 5
1954-09-12 Strommen D 1-1 1478 1475 55.3% 22.3% 22.4% -1.5 7
1954-09-12 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1475 1478 22.4% 22.3% 55.3% +1.5 1
1954-09-12 Viking L 1-2 1497 1474 57.4% 22.2% 20.4% -11.0 2
1954-09-12 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1474 1497 20.4% 22.2% 57.4% +11.0 6
1954-09-12 Larvik Turn W 4-2 1589 1568 57.2% 22.2% 20.6% +7.3 10
1954-09-12 @ Skeid L 2-4 1568 1589 20.6% 22.2% 57.2% -7.3 9
1954-09-26 Asker W 1-0 1393 1541 35.8% 22.4% 41.8% +8.8 5
1954-09-26 @ Ranheim L 0-1 1541 1393 41.8% 22.4% 35.8% -8.8 6
1954-10-03 Skeid W 1-0 1532 1596 47.3% 22.5% 30.2% +6.8 8
1954-10-03 @ Asker L 0-1 1596 1532 30.2% 22.5% 47.3% -6.8 10
1954-10-03 Larvik Turn L 3-4 1402 1561 34.3% 22.4% 43.3% -6.6 5
1954-10-03 @ Ranheim W 4-3 1561 1402 43.3% 22.4% 34.3% +6.6 11
1954-10-03 Freidig W 2-1 1477 1401 62.4% 21.8% 15.8% +3.7 9
1954-10-03 @ Sandefjord L 1-2 1401 1477 15.8% 21.8% 62.4% -3.7 4
1954-10-03 Lillestrom L 1-3 1486 1508 52.6% 22.4% 25.0% -17.6 2
1954-10-03 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 3-1 1508 1486 25.0% 22.4% 52.6% +17.6 9
1954-10-03 Sarpsborg W 6-0 1477 1515 50.5% 22.5% 27.0% +32.7 3
1954-10-03 @ Strommen L 0-6 1515 1477 27.0% 22.5% 50.5% -32.7 8
1954-10-03 Fredrikstad D 3-3 1464 1622 34.4% 22.4% 43.2% +0.2 7
1954-10-03 @ Valerenga D 3-3 1622 1464 43.2% 22.4% 34.4% -0.2 10
1954-10-03 IF Odd L 1-3 1485 1450 58.7% 22.1% 19.2% -19.5 6
1954-10-03 @ Viking W 3-1 1450 1485 19.2% 22.1% 58.7% +19.5 7
1954-10-10 Fram Larvik W 2-1 1428 1434 54.4% 22.4% 23.3% +5.2 6
1954-10-10 @ Brann L 1-2 1434 1428 23.3% 22.4% 54.4% -5.2 7
1954-10-10 Sandefjord L 2-3 1397 1481 44.8% 22.5% 32.7% -8.4 4
1954-10-10 @ Freidig W 3-2 1481 1397 32.7% 22.5% 44.8% +8.4 11
1954-10-10 Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1525 1469 60.6% 22.0% 17.4% -2.3 10
1954-10-10 @ Lillestrom D 0-0 1469 1525 17.4% 22.0% 60.6% +2.3 3
1954-10-10 Viking L 1-3 1469 1466 55.3% 22.3% 22.4% -18.5 7
1954-10-10 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1466 1469 22.4% 22.3% 55.3% +18.4 8
1954-10-17 Brann D 1-1 1622 1433 70.5% 20.5% 9.0% -3.1 11
1954-10-17 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1433 1622 9.0% 20.5% 70.5% +3.1 7
1954-10-17 Lillestrom W 2-0 1451 1523 46.3% 22.5% 31.2% +13.2 9
1954-10-17 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1523 1451 31.2% 22.5% 46.3% -13.2 10
1954-10-17 Freidig D 0-0 1483 1389 63.9% 21.6% 14.5% -2.7 9
1954-10-17 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1389 1483 14.5% 21.6% 63.9% +2.7 5
1954-10-17 Sandefjord L 1-4 1509 1489 57.1% 22.2% 20.6% -26.9 3
1954-10-17 @ Strommen W 4-1 1489 1509 20.6% 22.2% 57.1% +26.9 13
1954-10-17 Fram Larvik L 0-2 1464 1428 58.7% 22.1% 19.2% -22.5 7
1954-10-17 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1428 1464 19.2% 22.1% 58.7% +22.5 9
1954-10-17 Sarpsborg 08 D 2-2 1484 1471 56.4% 22.2% 21.4% -1.2 9
1954-10-17 @ Viking D 2-2 1471 1484 21.4% 22.2% 56.4% +1.2 4
1954-10-24 Viking D 1-1 1436 1483 49.5% 22.5% 28.0% -1.0 8
1954-10-24 @ Brann D 1-1 1483 1436 28.0% 22.5% 49.5% +1.0 10
1954-10-24 Ranheim W 1-0 1567 1395 69.5% 20.7% 9.8% +2.5 13
1954-10-24 @ Larvik Turn L 0-1 1395 1567 9.8% 20.7% 69.5% -2.5 5
1955-05-01 IF Odd L 0-1 1435 1464 51.7% 22.4% 25.8% -10.6 8
1955-05-01 @ Brann W 1-0 1464 1435 25.8% 22.4% 51.7% +10.6 11
1955-05-01 Viking W 2-0 1451 1484 51.2% 22.4% 26.4% +11.5 11
1955-05-01 @ Fram Larvik L 0-2 1484 1451 26.4% 22.4% 51.2% -11.5 10
1955-05-01 Lillestrom W 6-3 1619 1510 65.1% 21.5% 13.5% +6.3 13
1955-05-01 @ Fredrikstad L 3-6 1510 1619 13.5% 21.5% 65.1% -6.3 10
1955-05-01 Ranheim W 1-0 1516 1393 66.1% 21.3% 12.6% +3.2 15
1955-05-01 @ Sandefjord L 0-1 1393 1516 12.6% 21.3% 66.1% -3.2 5
1955-05-01 Skeid W 5-3 1480 1590 41.2% 22.5% 36.3% +10.9 11
1955-05-01 @ Sarpsborg L 3-5 1590 1480 36.3% 22.5% 41.2% -10.9 10
1955-05-01 Asker D 2-2 1483 1539 48.3% 22.5% 29.2% -0.6 4
1955-05-01 @ Strommen D 2-2 1539 1483 29.2% 22.5% 48.3% +0.6 9
1955-05-01 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-2 1442 1472 51.4% 22.4% 26.1% +5.4 9
1955-05-01 @ Valerenga L 2-3 1472 1442 26.1% 22.4% 51.4% -5.4 4
1955-05-04 Sarpsborg W 5-2 1540 1491 59.9% 22.0% 18.1% +8.9 11
1955-05-04 @ Asker L 2-5 1491 1540 18.1% 22.0% 59.9% -8.9 11
1955-05-04 Sandefjord W 5-0 1570 1519 60.1% 22.0% 17.9% +19.4 15
1955-05-04 @ Larvik Turn L 0-5 1519 1570 17.9% 22.0% 60.1% -19.4 15
1955-05-04 Valerenga L 0-2 1503 1447 60.6% 22.0% 17.4% -23.3 10
1955-05-04 @ Lillestrom W 2-0 1447 1503 17.4% 22.0% 60.6% +23.3 11
1955-05-04 Fram Larvik W 3-0 1475 1463 56.3% 22.3% 21.5% +14.1 13
1955-05-04 @ IF Odd L 0-3 1463 1475 21.5% 22.3% 56.3% -14.1 11
1955-05-04 Fredrikstad D 3-3 1467 1625 34.4% 22.4% 43.2% +0.2 5
1955-05-04 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 3-3 1625 1467 43.2% 22.4% 34.4% -0.2 14
1955-05-08 Brann L 0-2 1448 1425 57.5% 22.2% 20.3% -22.1 11
1955-05-08 @ Fram Larvik W 2-0 1425 1448 20.3% 22.2% 57.5% +22.1 10
1955-05-08 Strommen D 1-1 1482 1482 55.0% 22.3% 22.7% -1.5 12
1955-05-08 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1482 1482 22.7% 22.3% 55.0% +1.5 5
1955-05-11 Valerenga L 2-4 1625 1470 68.3% 20.9% 10.7% -20.3 14
1955-05-11 @ Fredrikstad W 4-2 1470 1625 10.7% 20.9% 68.3% +20.3 13
1955-05-11 Asker D 2-2 1579 1548 58.1% 22.1% 19.7% -1.4 11
1955-05-11 @ Skeid D 2-2 1548 1579 19.7% 22.1% 58.1% +1.4 12
1955-05-15 Lillestrom W 2-0 1447 1480 51.2% 22.4% 26.4% +11.5 12
1955-05-15 @ Brann L 0-2 1480 1447 26.4% 22.4% 51.2% -11.6 10
1955-05-15 Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1426 1467 50.2% 22.5% 27.3% +6.3 13
1955-05-15 @ Fram Larvik L 0-1 1467 1426 27.3% 22.5% 50.2% -6.3 5
1955-05-15 IF Odd W 4-1 1605 1489 65.6% 21.4% 13.0% +7.6 16
1955-05-15 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1489 1605 13.0% 21.4% 65.6% -7.6 13
1955-05-15 Skeid L 1-3 1392 1577 30.8% 22.2% 46.9% -11.3 5
1955-05-15 @ Freidig W 3-1 1577 1392 46.9% 22.2% 30.8% +11.3 13
1955-05-15 Asker W 3-1 1500 1550 49.1% 22.5% 28.4% +10.6 17
1955-05-15 @ Sandefjord L 1-3 1550 1500 28.4% 22.5% 49.1% -10.6 12
1955-05-15 Larvik Turn W 3-2 1481 1589 41.3% 22.5% 36.2% +7.0 14
1955-05-15 @ Sarpsborg L 2-3 1589 1481 36.2% 22.5% 41.3% -7.0 15
1955-05-15 Ranheim L 1-2 1483 1390 63.9% 21.6% 14.5% -12.2 5
1955-05-15 @ Strommen W 2-1 1390 1483 14.5% 21.6% 63.9% +12.2 7
1955-05-15 Viking L 1-2 1491 1473 56.9% 22.2% 20.9% -10.9 13
1955-05-15 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1473 1491 20.9% 22.2% 56.9% +10.9 12
1955-05-19 Larvik Turn L 1-7 1380 1582 28.8% 22.1% 49.0% -28.3 5
1955-05-19 @ Freidig W 7-1 1582 1380 49.0% 22.1% 28.8% +28.3 17
1955-05-19 Strommen W 3-2 1589 1471 65.7% 21.4% 12.9% +2.9 15
1955-05-19 @ Skeid L 2-3 1471 1589 12.9% 21.4% 65.7% -2.9 5
1955-05-19 Brann W 3-2 1484 1458 57.6% 22.2% 20.2% +4.4 14
1955-05-19 @ Viking L 2-3 1458 1484 20.2% 22.2% 57.6% -4.4 12
1955-05-22 Freidig W 5-0 1539 1352 70.4% 20.5% 9.1% +10.3 14
1955-05-22 @ Asker L 0-5 1352 1539 9.1% 20.5% 70.4% -10.3 5
1955-05-22 Valerenga W 3-1 1454 1480 52.1% 22.4% 25.5% +9.7 14
1955-05-22 @ Brann L 1-3 1480 1454 25.5% 22.4% 52.1% -9.7 13
1955-05-22 Strommen W 3-1 1611 1468 67.5% 21.1% 11.4% +4.8 19
1955-05-22 @ Larvik Turn L 1-3 1468 1611 11.4% 21.1% 67.5% -4.8 5
1955-05-22 Fram Larvik W 2-1 1469 1433 58.7% 22.1% 19.2% +4.4 12
1955-05-22 @ Lillestrom L 1-2 1433 1469 19.2% 22.1% 58.7% -4.4 13
1955-05-22 Sarpsborg W 5-1 1402 1488 44.5% 22.5% 33.0% +21.9 9
1955-05-22 @ Ranheim L 1-5 1488 1402 33.0% 22.5% 44.5% -21.9 14
1955-05-22 IF Odd D 1-1 1461 1481 52.7% 22.4% 24.9% -1.3 6
1955-05-22 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1481 1461 24.9% 22.4% 52.7% +1.3 14
1955-05-22 Sandefjord W 3-1 1592 1510 62.8% 21.8% 15.4% +6.3 17
1955-05-22 @ Skeid L 1-3 1510 1592 15.4% 21.8% 62.8% -6.3 17
1955-05-22 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1488 1612 39.1% 22.5% 38.4% -0.0 15
1955-05-22 @ Viking D 1-1 1612 1488 38.4% 22.5% 39.1% +0.0 17
1955-05-25 Skeid W 3-0 1615 1598 56.8% 22.2% 20.9% +13.8 21
1955-05-25 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1598 1615 20.9% 22.2% 56.8% -13.8 17
1955-05-25 Freidig D 1-1 1424 1342 62.9% 21.7% 15.4% -2.3 10
1955-05-25 @ Ranheim D 1-1 1342 1424 15.4% 21.7% 62.9% +2.3 6
1955-05-30 Larvik Turn W 1-0 1549 1629 45.3% 22.5% 32.2% +7.2 16
1955-05-30 @ Asker L 0-1 1629 1549 32.2% 22.5% 45.3% -7.2 21
1955-05-30 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1428 1612 31.0% 22.2% 46.7% -11.4 13
1955-05-30 @ Fram Larvik W 3-1 1612 1428 46.7% 22.2% 31.0% +11.4 19
1955-05-30 Strommen L 0-1 1344 1463 39.8% 22.5% 37.7% -8.5 6
1955-05-30 @ Freidig W 1-0 1463 1344 37.7% 22.5% 39.8% +8.5 7
1955-05-30 Viking W 1-0 1473 1488 53.3% 22.4% 24.3% +5.7 14
1955-05-30 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1488 1473 24.3% 22.4% 53.3% -5.7 15
1955-05-30 Valerenga D 1-1 1482 1470 56.3% 22.2% 21.4% -1.6 15
1955-05-30 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1470 1482 21.4% 22.2% 56.3% +1.6 14
1955-05-30 Sarpsborg W 3-2 1504 1466 58.9% 22.1% 19.0% +4.2 19
1955-05-30 @ Sandefjord L 2-3 1466 1504 19.0% 22.1% 58.9% -4.1 14
1955-05-30 Brann W 4-3 1460 1464 54.5% 22.3% 23.2% +4.8 8
1955-05-30 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 3-4 1464 1460 23.2% 22.3% 54.5% -4.8 14
1955-05-30 Ranheim W 4-0 1584 1421 68.8% 20.8% 10.3% +9.4 19
1955-05-30 @ Skeid L 0-4 1421 1584 10.3% 20.8% 68.8% -9.4 10

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1955-06-05 Fredrikstad W 4-2 1622 1624 54.8% 22.3% 22.9% +7.9 1-0
1955-06-05 @ Larvik Turn L 2-4 1624 1622 22.9% 22.3% 54.8% -8.0 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1955-05-11 10.72% Valerenga 1470 4 @ Fredrikstad 1625 2
2 1954-07-25 13.26% Fram Larvik 1409 4 @ Sarpsborg 08 1521 3
3 1955-05-15 14.51% Ranheim 1390 2 @ Strommen 1483 1
4 1954-08-15 15.43% Fram Larvik 1408 3 @ Viking 1490 1
5 1954-08-22 15.69% Freidig 1409 3 @ Strommen 1487 2
6 1954-07-25 16.69% Sandefjord 1474 2 @ Asker 1539 1
7 1955-05-04 17.40% Valerenga 1447 2 @ Lillestrom 1503 0
8 1954-10-03 19.20% IF Odd 1450 3 @ Viking 1485 1
9 1954-10-17 19.23% Fram Larvik 1428 2 @ Valerenga 1464 0
10 1955-05-08 20.35% Brann 1425 2 @ Fram Larvik 1448 0
11 1954-09-12 20.40% Viking 1474 2 @ Sarpsborg 08 1497 1
12 1954-10-17 20.65% Sandefjord 1489 4 @ Strommen 1509 1
13 1955-05-15 20.89% Viking 1473 2 @ Valerenga 1491 1
14 1954-10-10 22.37% Viking 1466 3 @ IF Odd 1469 1
15 1954-08-01 22.89% Larvik Turn 1513 2 @ Strommen 1511 1
16 1954-08-15 24.07% Fredrikstad 1563 7 @ Lillestrom 1550 1
17 1954-10-03 25.01% Lillestrom 1508 3 @ Sarpsborg 08 1486 1
18 1955-05-01 25.83% IF Odd 1464 1 @ Brann 1435 0
19 1954-08-12 26.83% Skeid 1538 1 @ Strommen 1501 0
20 1954-08-18 26.86% Larvik Turn 1534 2 @ Sandefjord 1496 0
21 1954-09-12 31.73% Sarpsborg 1496 5 @ Freidig 1420 2
22 1954-08-01 32.33% Asker 1527 4 @ Freidig 1446 0
23 1954-10-10 32.66% Sandefjord 1481 3 @ Freidig 1397 2
24 1954-09-26 35.84% @ Ranheim 1393 1 Asker 1541 0
25 1954-08-01 37.23% Lillestrom 1537 4 @ Fram Larvik 1421 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-08-15 47.33 Fredrikstad 7 1563 24.07% @ Lillestrom 1 1550 53.55% 22.38%
2 1954-08-22 36.64 Skeid 7 1553 37.78% @ Ranheim 1 1432 39.73% 22.49%
3 1954-08-01 33.69 Asker 4 1527 32.33% @ Freidig 0 1446 45.15% 22.53%
4 1954-10-03 32.73 @ Strommen 6 1477 50.51% Sarpsborg 0 1515 27.03% 22.47%
5 1954-08-01 30.11 @ Valerenga 5 1433 47.34% IF Odd 0 1497 30.15% 22.51%
6 1955-05-19 28.30 Larvik Turn 7 1582 49.05% @ Freidig 1 1380 28.82% 22.13%
7 1954-10-17 26.90 Sandefjord 4 1489 20.65% @ Strommen 1 1509 57.14% 22.21%
8 1955-05-04 23.26 Valerenga 2 1447 17.40% @ Lillestrom 0 1503 60.64% 21.96%
9 1954-10-17 22.52 Fram Larvik 2 1428 19.23% @ Valerenga 0 1464 58.66% 22.11%
10 1955-05-08 22.09 Brann 2 1425 20.35% @ Fram Larvik 0 1448 57.46% 22.19%
11 1955-05-22 21.87 @ Ranheim 5 1402 44.48% Sarpsborg 1 1488 32.99% 22.53%
12 1954-08-15 20.87 Fram Larvik 3 1408 15.43% @ Viking 1 1490 62.82% 21.75%
13 1955-05-11 20.29 Valerenga 4 1470 10.72% @ Fredrikstad 2 1625 68.34% 20.94%
14 1954-08-18 19.64 Larvik Turn 2 1534 26.86% @ Sandefjord 0 1496 50.68% 22.46%
15 1954-10-03 19.52 IF Odd 3 1450 19.20% @ Viking 1 1485 58.68% 22.11%
16 1955-05-04 19.39 @ Larvik Turn 5 1570 60.12% Sandefjord 0 1519 17.87% 22.00%
17 1954-09-12 19.05 Sarpsborg 5 1496 31.73% @ Freidig 2 1420 45.75% 22.52%
18 1954-10-10 18.45 Viking 3 1466 22.37% @ IF Odd 1 1469 55.32% 22.30%
19 1954-10-03 17.59 Lillestrom 3 1508 25.01% @ Sarpsborg 08 1 1486 52.58% 22.41%
20 1954-07-25 16.68 @ Viking 4 1486 58.79% Valerenga 0 1449 19.11% 22.10%
21 1954-08-22 14.78 @ Larvik Turn 3 1553 55.02% Asker 0 1553 22.66% 22.32%
22 1955-05-04 14.13 @ IF Odd 3 1475 56.26% Fram Larvik 0 1463 21.48% 22.26%
23 1955-05-25 13.82 @ Larvik Turn 3 1615 56.83% Skeid 0 1598 20.94% 22.23%
24 1954-08-01 13.34 @ Fredrikstad 5 1549 59.72% Viking 1 1503 18.24% 22.03%
25 1954-10-17 13.23 @ IF Odd 2 1451 46.28% Lillestrom 0 1523 31.20% 22.52%