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1953-54 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Skeid

22 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sarpsborg 08

7.09 points above expected

21 points · 13.91 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Nordnes

5.77 points below expected

3 points · 8.77 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skeid 14 10 2 2 22 33 14 +19 19.28 +2.72
2 Fredrikstad 14 10 1 3 21 47 20 +27 18.58 +2.42
3 Sarpsborg 08 14 9 3 2 21 29 17 +12 13.91 +7.09
4 Strommen 14 8 4 2 20 32 17 +15 18.40 +1.60
5 Lillestrom 14 8 3 3 19 45 22 +23 18.27 +0.73
6 Asker 14 8 2 4 18 35 21 +14 15.46 +2.54
7 Larvik Turn 14 7 2 5 16 35 24 +11 18.53 -2.53
8 IF Odd 14 5 4 5 14 26 25 +1 14.43 -0.43
9 Viking 14 4 5 5 13 19 20 -1 14.80 -1.80
10 Sarpsborg 14 5 2 7 12 24 29 -5 12.61 -0.61
11 Sandefjord 14 3 5 6 11 20 22 -2 12.73 -1.73
12 Freidig 14 4 3 7 11 20 26 -6 9.64 +1.36
13 Varegg 14 2 4 8 8 16 38 -22 8.52 -0.52
14 Geithus 14 3 2 9 8 18 45 -27 9.71 -1.71
15 Moss 14 2 3 9 7 23 51 -28 10.36 -3.36
16 Nordnes 14 1 1 12 3 8 39 -31 8.77 -5.77

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fredrikstad 2
Skeid 1

Sim: 8.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1802 21 18.58 +2.42 84.7% 9 14 17 19 21 23 28
Skeid 1751 22 19.28 +2.72 87.0% 8 14 17 19 21 24 28
Asker 1719 18 15.46 +2.54 84.1% 4 10 13 15 18 20 25
Lillestrom 1670 19 18.27 +0.73 65.5% 7 13 16 18 20 23 28
Sarpsborg 08 1662 21 13.91 +7.09 99.4% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Strommen 1648 20 18.40 +1.60 76.3% 7 14 17 18 20 23 27
Larvik Turn 1620 16 18.53 -2.53 23.9% 8 14 17 19 21 23 27
IF Odd 1534 14 14.43 -0.43 51.0% 4 9 12 14 17 19 25
Viking 1520 13 14.80 -1.80 32.9% 3 10 13 15 17 20 26
Sarpsborg 1515 12 12.61 -0.61 48.0% 2 8 11 13 15 18 23
Sandefjord 1472 11 12.73 -1.73 34.6% 2 8 11 13 15 18 23
Geithus 1385 8 9.71 -1.71 34.7% 0 5 8 10 12 14 20
Freidig 1376 11 9.64 +1.36 74.0% 0 5 8 10 12 14 20
Varegg 1321 8 8.52 -0.52 50.8% 0 4 7 8 10 13 19
Moss 1309 7 10.36 -3.36 16.3% 0 6 8 10 12 15 21
Nordnes 1303 3 8.77 -5.77 2.3% 0 4 7 9 11 14 20

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ASK FRE FRE GEI IO LT LIL MOS NOR SAN SAR S0 SKE STR VAR VIK
Asker —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.66
1-0-1
3.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.42
1-0-1
2.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.21
1-1-0
2.76
Fredrikstad
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
4.56
2-0-0
4.37
1-0-1
3.88
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.86
2-0-0
3.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.07
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.97
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Freidig
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.03
 —
1-1-0
2.30
0-1-1
1.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.26
1-1-0
2.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.10
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Geithus
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.22
0-1-1
3.27
 —
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.11
1-0-1
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
0.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.69
1-1-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.68
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.30
2-0-0
3.77
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Larvik Turn
0-0-2
3.22
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.57
1-1-0
3.92
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.61
0-0-2
2.73
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.56
1-0-1
3.62
Lillestrom
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.71
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.47
1-1-0
3.27
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
4.10
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.27
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Moss
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.93
0-1-1
2.76
1-0-1
3.00
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.48
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
1.09
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Nordnes
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
1.46
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.21
0-0-2
0.77
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.84
0-0-2
1.45
Sandefjord
1-0-1
2.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
4.12
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
1.63
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.72
1-1-0
2.51
Sarpsborg
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.51
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
3.42
0-2-0
2.40
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.31
1-0-1
3.55
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg 08
2-0-0
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.37
2-0-0
3.74
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
1.56
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.98
0-2-0
2.56
Skeid
1-0-1
3.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.84
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.83
1-1-0
3.94
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.02
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.33
2-0-0
3.90
Strommen
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
4.67
2-0-0
3.61
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.79
0-2-0
4.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Varegg
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.72
0-1-1
1.86
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.59
0-1-1
1.26
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
1.47
Viking
0-1-1
2.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.13
0-1-1
3.05
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.01
0-0-2
1.68
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.11
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.72 +4.7
Allowed 0.71 -4.6
Differential 0.91 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%2.68%6.25%1.79%1.34%2.23%18.75%
12.68%9.82%7.14%4.02%2.23%2.23%28.12%
26.25%7.14%2.68%4.46%3.12%1.34%25.00%
31.79%4.02%4.46%3.57%0.45%0.45%14.73%
41.34%2.23%3.12%0.45%——7.14%
5+2.23%2.23%1.34%0.45%——6.25%
Total18.75%28.12%25.00%14.73%7.14%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 1.92 +0.00
SD 1.74 1.74 2.70
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—7.14%14.29%7.14%——28.57%
27.14%14.29%—7.14%——28.57%
37.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
47.14%—7.14%———14.29%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total21.43%28.57%28.57%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.50 +1.00
SD 1.45 1.09 1.92
CV 0.58 0.73 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
1——7.14%———7.14%
27.14%——7.14%——14.29%
37.14%—14.29%7.14%——28.57%
47.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
5+—14.29%————14.29%
Total21.43%28.57%35.71%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.36 1.43 +1.93
SD 1.98 1.02 2.37
CV 0.59 0.71 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
1—7.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%35.71%
27.14%———7.14%—14.29%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4——14.29%———14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%42.86%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.86 -0.43
SD 1.40 1.46 1.79
CV 0.98 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%——14.29%28.57%
17.14%—7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%35.71%
2—7.14%7.14%14.29%——28.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———7.14%——7.14%
Total14.29%7.14%21.43%28.57%7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 3.21 -1.93
SD 1.33 2.67 3.22
CV 1.03 0.83 —
Max 5 10 +2
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%———14.29%
1—21.43%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
2—14.29%——7.14%—21.43%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total—50.00%28.57%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.79 +0.07
SD 1.46 0.97 1.82
CV 0.79 0.55 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
1—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
2—14.29%——7.14%—21.43%
3——14.29%———14.29%
47.14%——7.14%——14.29%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total21.43%21.43%35.71%7.14%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.71 +0.79
SD 3.06 1.33 3.75
CV 1.22 0.77 —
Max 12 4 +12
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
1—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
214.29%7.14%———7.14%28.57%
3—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
4———————
5+14.29%—7.14%———21.43%
Total28.57%28.57%14.29%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.21 1.57 +1.64
SD 2.69 1.50 3.52
CV 0.84 0.96 —
Max 10 5 +10
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——7.14%—7.14%21.43%
1—————14.29%14.29%
2—7.14%14.29%7.14%14.29%7.14%50.00%
3—————7.14%7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%14.29%14.29%14.29%14.29%35.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 3.64 -2.00
SD 1.15 2.37 2.86
CV 0.70 0.65 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%21.43%21.43%—7.14%64.29%
1——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
27.14%——14.29%——21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%7.14%28.57%42.86%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.57 2.79 -2.21
SD 0.85 2.86 3.12
CV 1.49 1.03 —
Max 2 12 +2
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
1—21.43%14.29%—7.14%—42.86%
2————7.14%—7.14%
3——14.29%———14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total21.43%28.57%35.71%—14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.57 -0.14
SD 1.65 1.28 2.11
CV 1.16 0.82 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
17.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
2———7.14%7.14%—14.29%
3—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total7.14%35.71%21.43%14.29%21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 2.07 -0.36
SD 1.38 1.33 2.10
CV 0.81 0.64 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
17.14%14.29%———7.14%28.57%
214.29%14.29%————28.57%
3—14.29%——7.14%—21.43%
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+———————
Total28.57%57.14%——7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 1.21 +0.86
SD 1.21 1.48 1.83
CV 0.58 1.22 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
1——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
221.43%14.29%————35.71%
314.29%7.14%—7.14%——28.57%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.00 +1.36
SD 1.28 1.11 1.65
CV 0.54 1.11 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
114.29%7.14%——7.14%—28.57%
27.14%7.14%21.43%———35.71%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+7.14%—7.14%———14.29%
Total28.57%35.71%28.57%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.21 +1.07
SD 1.68 1.12 2.13
CV 0.74 0.92 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——21.43%—7.14%7.14%35.71%
1—21.43%——7.14%—28.57%
2—7.14%—7.14%—7.14%21.43%
3——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total—28.57%28.57%14.29%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.71 -1.57
SD 1.10 1.73 2.10
CV 0.96 0.64 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
17.14%28.57%14.29%7.14%——57.14%
214.29%7.14%—7.14%——28.57%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.43 -0.07
SD 0.74 1.09 1.27
CV 0.55 0.76 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sarpsborg 08 21 13.91 +7.09
2 Skeid 22 19.28 +2.72
3 Asker 18 15.46 +2.54
4 Fredrikstad 21 18.58 +2.42
5 Strommen 20 18.40 +1.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Nordnes 3 8.77 -5.77
2 Moss 7 10.36 -3.36
3 Larvik Turn 16 18.53 -2.53
4 Viking 13 14.80 -1.80
5 Sandefjord 11 12.73 -1.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strommen 5 Jul 26 – Sep 27 1 in 88
2 Freidig 2 Aug 2 – Aug 16 1 in 46
3 Sarpsborg 2 May 17 – May 23 1 in 20
4 Asker 3 May 27 – Jun 20 1 in 18
5 Sarpsborg 08 3 May 9 – May 27 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Nordnes 5 Jul 26 – Sep 6 1 in 46
2 Moss 5 May 2 – May 27 1 in 35
3 Sarpsborg 4 Aug 2 – Sep 6 1 in 21
4 Fredrikstad 1 Aug 16 – Aug 16 1 in 17
5 Sandefjord 2 Sep 20 – Oct 4 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 08 10 Aug 16 – May 27 1 in 180
2 Strommen 9 Jul 26 – May 9 1 in 15
3 Varegg 3 May 17 – May 27 1 in 11
4 Moss 2 Oct 4 – Oct 11 1 in 10
5 IF Odd 4 Oct 11 – May 17 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 8 Oct 25 – Jun 13 1 in 108
2 Moss 11 Aug 2 – May 27 1 in 44
3 Sandefjord 6 May 9 – Jun 20 1 in 9
4 Strommen 3 May 27 – Jun 13 1 in 8
5 Sarpsborg 5 Jul 26 – Sep 6 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Skeid49.24%26.68%13.41%6.57%2.94%0.99%0.15%0.02%
Fredrikstad36.55%28.67%20.82%9.21%3.44%1.07%0.22%0.02%
Sarpsborg 083.48%9.11%16.18%21.01%22.07%17.53%7.74%2.88%
Strommen28.43%28.67%27.09%10.85%3.55%1.11%0.24%0.06%
Lillestrom30.22%29.21%23.86%10.89%3.83%1.37%0.56%0.06%
Asker8.63%16.96%23.70%20.84%15.96%9.88%3.11%0.92%
Larvik Turn32.77%32.30%17.60%9.78%5.14%1.91%0.43%0.07%
IF Odd3.62%8.80%15.39%33.11%20.25%10.84%5.87%2.12%
Viking4.51%10.78%18.63%22.34%21.47%15.29%5.53%1.45%
Sarpsborg0.93%3.22%8.04%18.96%28.91%19.38%13.49%7.07%
Sandefjord1.27%3.82%9.19%15.15%22.08%28.62%14.50%5.37%
Freidig0.06%0.43%1.45%5.30%13.98%22.75%26.21%29.82%
Varegg0.07%0.21%0.54%2.05%4.94%12.68%35.27%44.24%
Geithus0.04%0.29%1.35%4.99%11.76%20.04%27.28%34.25%
Moss0.15%0.71%2.00%6.69%14.28%23.44%26.13%26.60%
Nordnes0.03%0.14%0.75%2.26%5.40%13.10%33.27%45.05%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.18%
Clear Edge
47.32%20.54%32.14%
Elo Value
Home Edge
136 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
053.15400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.71 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.39+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.0
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
49%
Skeid, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.35 * Some Luck: 2.35 to 3.52 * Lucky: 3.52 to 4.69 * Wild Swing: 4.69 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.85 * Close: 1.85 to 2.78 * Off: 2.78 to 3.71 * Way Off: 3.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.91 points
Some Luck
02.937
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Pinpoint
02.325
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.44%
Sarpsborg 08
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
2.32%
Nordnes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.56
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
83%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
94%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Very Frequent
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.98
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.88
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.92
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
Skeid — —
Strommen 71.27% 0.30%
Larvik Turn 66.73% 0.50%
Lillestrom 69.16% 0.62%
Asker 87.34% 4.03%
Viking 88.51% 6.98%
IF Odd 88.39% 7.99%
Sarpsborg 08 85.90% 10.62%
Sandefjord 78.86% 19.87%
Sarpsborg 78.51% 20.56%
Moss 47.12% 52.73%
Freidig 43.91% 56.03%
Geithus 38.43% 61.53%
Nordnes 21.65% 78.32%
Varegg 20.42% 79.51%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AskerFredrikstadGeithusIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromNordnesSarpsborg 08SkeidStrommenViking
Asker0.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%50.0%4.00%
Fredrikstad100.0%1.00%60.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%53.3%15.00%
Geithus0.0%1.00%
IF Odd0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Larvik Turn40.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%30.0%10.00%66.7%9.00%
Lillestrom60.0%5.00%70.0%10.00%0.0%1.00%32.0%25.00%66.7%3.00%
Nordnes0.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg 0850.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Skeid46.7%15.00%0.0%1.00%68.0%25.00%87.5%8.00%
Strommen50.0%4.00%33.3%9.00%100.0%1.00%12.5%8.00%50.0%2.00%
Viking33.3%3.00%50.0%2.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 52.71%
Skeid 47.29%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadSkeid
Fredrikstad52.7%100.00%
Skeid47.3%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1953-07-26 Viking D 3-3 1554 1547 52.0% 21.5% 26.5% -1.8 1
1953-07-26 @ Asker D 3-3 1547 1554 26.5% 21.5% 52.0% +1.8 1
1953-07-26 Lillestrom W 2-0 1619 1547 59.0% 21.4% 19.6% +22.5 2
1953-07-26 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1547 1619 19.6% 21.4% 59.0% -22.5 0
1953-07-26 Moss L 1-4 1526 1526 51.1% 21.6% 27.3% -61.0 0
1953-07-26 @ Geithus W 4-1 1526 1526 27.3% 21.6% 51.1% +61.0 2
1953-07-26 Sandefjord D 1-1 1673 1498 67.2% 21.0% 11.7% -7.0 1
1953-07-26 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1498 1673 11.7% 21.0% 67.2% +7.0 1
1953-07-26 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1545 1541 51.6% 21.6% 26.9% -2.8 1
1953-07-26 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1541 1545 26.9% 21.6% 51.6% +2.9 1
1953-07-26 Nordnes W 2-0 1456 1526 41.9% 21.6% 36.5% +37.6 2
1953-07-26 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-2 1526 1456 36.5% 21.6% 41.9% -37.6 0
1953-07-26 Freidig W 2-1 1557 1364 68.3% 21.0% 10.7% +6.5 2
1953-07-26 @ Strommen L 1-2 1364 1557 10.7% 21.0% 68.3% -6.5 0
1953-07-26 Skeid D 3-3 1463 1663 24.9% 21.4% 53.7% +2.1 1
1953-07-26 @ Varegg D 3-3 1663 1463 53.7% 21.4% 24.9% -2.1 1
1953-08-02 Geithus W 2-0 1357 1465 36.6% 21.6% 41.9% +41.9 2
1953-08-02 @ Freidig L 0-2 1465 1357 41.9% 21.6% 36.6% -41.9 0
1953-08-02 IF Odd W 2-0 1524 1542 48.9% 21.6% 29.5% +31.7 2
1953-08-02 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1542 1524 29.5% 21.6% 48.9% -31.7 1
1953-08-02 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1587 1642 44.1% 21.6% 34.3% -63.5 2
1953-08-02 @ Moss W 3-0 1642 1587 34.3% 21.6% 44.1% +63.5 4
1953-08-02 Asker L 0-3 1489 1553 42.8% 21.6% 35.6% -62.0 0
1953-08-02 @ Nordnes W 3-0 1553 1489 35.6% 21.6% 42.8% +62.0 3
1953-08-02 Varegg W 6-0 1505 1466 55.6% 21.5% 22.9% +71.3 3
1953-08-02 @ Sandefjord L 0-6 1466 1505 22.9% 21.5% 55.6% -71.3 1
1953-08-02 Strommen L 1-4 1544 1563 48.7% 21.6% 29.8% -58.3 1
1953-08-02 @ Sarpsborg W 4-1 1563 1544 29.8% 21.6% 48.7% +58.3 4
1953-08-02 Sarpsborg 08 W 5-1 1661 1494 66.7% 21.1% 12.2% +23.3 3
1953-08-02 @ Skeid L 1-5 1494 1661 12.2% 21.1% 66.7% -23.4 2
1953-08-02 Larvik Turn W 2-1 1549 1666 35.2% 21.6% 43.2% +21.5 3
1953-08-02 @ Viking L 1-2 1666 1549 43.2% 21.6% 35.2% -21.5 1
1953-08-16 Freidig L 2-3 1705 1399 73.8% 20.3% 5.9% -34.2 4
1953-08-16 @ Fredrikstad W 3-2 1399 1705 5.9% 20.3% 73.8% +34.2 4
1953-08-16 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1423 1485 43.1% 21.6% 35.3% +19.4 2
1953-08-16 @ Geithus L 0-1 1485 1423 35.3% 21.6% 43.1% -19.4 1
1953-08-16 Nordnes W 12-0 1645 1427 69.8% 20.8% 9.4% +62.5 3
1953-08-16 @ Larvik Turn L 0-12 1427 1645 9.4% 20.8% 69.8% -62.5 0
1953-08-16 Moss W 7-0 1556 1524 54.8% 21.5% 23.7% +84.9 4
1953-08-16 @ Lillestrom L 0-7 1524 1556 23.7% 21.5% 54.8% -84.9 2
1953-08-16 Strommen L 0-2 1510 1622 36.1% 21.6% 42.4% -37.2 1
1953-08-16 @ IF Odd W 2-0 1622 1510 42.4% 21.6% 36.1% +37.2 6
1953-08-16 Asker W 3-1 1470 1614 31.7% 21.5% 46.8% +39.8 4
1953-08-16 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1614 1470 46.8% 21.5% 31.7% -39.8 3
1953-08-16 Sandefjord W 4-2 1685 1576 62.3% 21.3% 16.4% +15.0 5
1953-08-16 @ Skeid L 2-4 1576 1685 16.4% 21.3% 62.3% -15.0 3
1953-08-16 Viking L 0-2 1394 1570 27.7% 21.4% 50.9% -30.0 1
1953-08-16 @ Varegg W 2-0 1570 1394 50.9% 21.4% 27.7% +30.0 5
1953-08-30 Lillestrom L 1-2 1434 1641 24.1% 21.4% 54.5% -13.4 4
1953-08-30 @ Freidig W 2-1 1641 1434 54.5% 21.4% 24.1% +13.4 6
1953-08-30 Varegg L 1-2 1364 1364 51.1% 21.6% 27.3% -24.9 0
1953-08-30 @ Nordnes W 2-1 1364 1364 27.3% 21.6% 51.1% +24.9 3
1953-08-30 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1466 1671 24.3% 21.4% 54.3% -12.8 1
1953-08-30 @ Sarpsborg W 3-2 1671 1466 54.3% 21.4% 24.3% +12.8 6
1953-09-06 Strommen L 0-1 1684 1659 54.0% 21.5% 24.5% -27.8 6
1953-09-06 @ Fredrikstad W 1-0 1659 1684 24.5% 21.5% 54.0% +27.8 8
1953-09-06 Sarpsborg W 3-1 1654 1453 68.8% 20.9% 10.2% +10.9 8
1953-09-06 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1453 1654 10.2% 20.9% 68.8% -10.9 1
1953-09-06 Freidig D 0-0 1439 1420 53.3% 21.5% 25.2% -3.7 3
1953-09-06 @ Moss D 0-0 1420 1439 25.2% 21.5% 53.3% +3.7 5
1953-09-06 Geithus W 2-1 1473 1443 54.6% 21.5% 23.9% +13.3 3
1953-09-06 @ IF Odd L 1-2 1443 1473 23.9% 21.5% 54.6% -13.3 2
1953-09-06 Viking W 3-2 1561 1600 46.2% 21.6% 32.2% +16.2 5
1953-09-06 @ Sandefjord L 2-3 1600 1561 32.2% 21.6% 46.2% -16.1 5
1953-09-06 Larvik Turn D 0-0 1510 1707 25.2% 21.4% 53.4% +3.7 5
1953-09-06 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1707 1510 53.4% 21.4% 25.2% -3.7 4
1953-09-06 Nordnes W 3-0 1700 1339 75.7% 19.9% 4.4% +8.1 7
1953-09-06 @ Skeid L 0-3 1339 1700 4.4% 19.9% 75.7% -8.1 0
1953-09-06 Asker D 1-1 1389 1575 26.6% 21.4% 52.0% +3.0 4
1953-09-06 @ Varegg D 1-1 1575 1389 52.0% 21.4% 26.6% -2.9 4
1953-09-20 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1430 1656 22.1% 21.3% 56.6% -11.8 2
1953-09-20 @ Geithus W 3-2 1656 1430 56.6% 21.3% 22.1% +11.8 8
1953-09-20 Varegg W 3-2 1704 1392 74.0% 20.3% 5.7% +3.4 6
1953-09-20 @ Larvik Turn L 2-3 1392 1704 5.7% 20.3% 74.0% -3.4 4
1953-09-20 Sandefjord W 2-0 1331 1577 20.1% 21.2% 58.6% +56.6 2
1953-09-20 @ Nordnes L 0-2 1577 1331 58.6% 21.2% 20.1% -56.6 5
1953-09-20 Moss W 3-2 1442 1435 52.0% 21.5% 26.5% +13.8 3
1953-09-20 @ Sarpsborg L 2-3 1435 1442 26.5% 21.5% 52.0% -13.8 3
1953-09-20 Skeid W 2-1 1514 1708 25.6% 21.4% 53.0% +25.7 7
1953-09-20 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1708 1514 53.0% 21.4% 25.6% -25.7 7
1953-09-27 IF Odd L 1-3 1424 1486 43.0% 21.6% 35.4% -37.1 5
1953-09-27 @ Freidig W 3-1 1486 1424 35.4% 21.6% 43.0% +37.1 5
1953-09-27 Lillestrom W 5-2 1687 1665 53.6% 21.5% 24.8% +29.1 10
1953-09-27 @ Strommen L 2-5 1665 1687 24.8% 21.5% 53.6% -29.2 8
1953-09-27 Viking L 0-1 1388 1584 25.3% 21.4% 53.3% -14.8 2
1953-09-27 @ Nordnes W 1-0 1584 1388 53.3% 21.4% 25.3% +14.8 7
1953-10-04 IF Odd W 4-2 1668 1523 65.1% 21.2% 13.7% +12.7 10
1953-10-04 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1523 1668 13.7% 21.2% 65.1% -12.7 5
1953-10-04 Sarpsborg W 4-2 1387 1456 42.0% 21.6% 36.4% +29.0 7
1953-10-04 @ Freidig L 2-4 1456 1387 36.4% 21.6% 42.0% -29.0 3
1953-10-04 Geithus W 10-0 1636 1418 69.8% 20.8% 9.4% +52.4 10
1953-10-04 @ Lillestrom L 0-10 1418 1636 9.4% 20.8% 69.8% -52.4 2
1953-10-04 Strommen D 2-2 1421 1716 15.9% 21.0% 63.0% +4.3 4
1953-10-04 @ Moss D 2-2 1716 1421 63.0% 21.0% 15.9% -4.3 11
1953-10-04 Asker L 1-2 1521 1572 44.6% 21.6% 33.8% -22.1 5
1953-10-04 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1572 1521 33.8% 21.6% 44.6% +22.1 6
1953-10-04 Varegg W 4-1 1540 1389 65.6% 21.1% 13.3% +19.5 9
1953-10-04 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-4 1389 1540 13.3% 21.1% 65.6% -19.5 4
1953-10-04 Larvik Turn W 2-0 1682 1707 48.0% 21.6% 30.4% +32.5 9
1953-10-04 @ Skeid L 0-2 1707 1682 30.4% 21.6% 48.0% -32.5 6
1953-10-04 Nordnes W 2-0 1599 1373 70.2% 20.8% 9.0% +11.1 9
1953-10-04 @ Viking L 0-2 1373 1599 9.0% 20.8% 70.2% -11.1 2
1953-10-11 Skeid L 1-2 1674 1714 46.1% 21.6% 32.4% -22.7 6
1953-10-11 @ Larvik Turn W 2-1 1714 1674 32.4% 21.6% 46.1% +22.7 11
1953-10-11 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1511 1681 28.4% 21.5% 50.1% +24.4 7
1953-10-11 @ IF Odd L 1-2 1681 1511 50.1% 21.5% 28.4% -24.4 10
1953-10-11 Freidig W 5-1 1427 1416 52.4% 21.5% 26.0% +45.2 5
1953-10-11 @ Sarpsborg L 1-5 1416 1427 26.0% 21.5% 52.4% -45.2 7
1953-10-11 Moss D 2-2 1712 1426 73.0% 20.4% 6.6% -6.4 12
1953-10-11 @ Strommen D 2-2 1426 1712 6.6% 20.4% 73.0% +6.4 5
1953-10-18 Lillestrom L 1-3 1365 1688 13.8% 20.9% 65.3% -14.2 2
1953-10-18 @ Geithus W 3-1 1688 1365 65.3% 20.9% 13.8% +14.2 12
1953-10-25 Skeid W 3-1 1594 1737 31.8% 21.5% 46.7% +39.8 8
1953-10-25 @ Asker L 1-3 1737 1594 46.7% 21.5% 31.8% -39.8 11
1953-10-25 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1610 1559 56.9% 21.5% 21.7% -4.2 10
1953-10-25 @ Viking D 1-1 1559 1610 21.7% 21.5% 56.9% +4.2 10
1953-10-25 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-2 1369 1563 25.6% 21.4% 53.0% -28.1 4
1953-10-25 @ Varegg W 2-0 1563 1369 53.0% 21.4% 25.6% +28.1 12
1954-04-25 Nordnes D 0-0 1499 1362 64.5% 21.2% 14.3% -7.0 6
1954-04-25 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1362 1499 14.3% 21.2% 64.5% +7.0 3
1954-04-25 Asker W 2-1 1697 1634 58.1% 21.4% 20.4% +11.7 13
1954-04-25 @ Skeid L 1-2 1634 1697 20.4% 21.4% 58.1% -11.6 8
1954-05-02 IF Odd L 2-4 1432 1535 37.3% 21.6% 41.2% -29.6 5
1954-05-02 @ Moss W 4-2 1535 1432 41.2% 21.6% 37.3% +29.6 9
1954-05-02 Geithus W 6-0 1705 1351 75.5% 20.0% 4.6% +16.0 14
1954-05-02 @ Strommen L 0-6 1351 1705 4.6% 20.0% 75.5% -16.0 2
1954-05-02 Sandefjord L 2-3 1622 1492 64.0% 21.2% 14.8% -29.4 8
1954-05-02 @ Asker W 3-2 1492 1622 14.8% 21.2% 64.0% +29.4 8
1954-05-02 Viking D 1-1 1591 1606 49.3% 21.6% 29.1% -2.3 13
1954-05-02 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1606 1591 29.1% 21.6% 49.3% +2.3 11
1954-05-02 Larvik Turn L 0-4 1341 1652 14.7% 21.0% 64.4% -33.0 4
1954-05-02 @ Varegg W 4-0 1652 1341 64.4% 21.0% 14.7% +33.0 8
1954-05-09 Strommen L 0-1 1371 1721 12.0% 20.8% 67.2% -7.7 7
1954-05-09 @ Freidig W 1-0 1721 1371 67.2% 20.8% 12.0% +7.7 16
1954-05-09 Fredrikstad D 3-3 1703 1656 56.4% 21.5% 22.2% -2.5 13
1954-05-09 @ Lillestrom D 3-3 1656 1703 22.2% 21.5% 56.4% +2.5 11
1954-05-09 Geithus L 3-5 1403 1335 58.5% 21.4% 20.1% -41.4 5
1954-05-09 @ Moss W 5-3 1335 1403 20.1% 21.4% 58.5% +41.4 4
1954-05-09 IF Odd D 1-1 1472 1565 38.7% 21.6% 39.7% +0.1 6
1954-05-09 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1565 1472 39.7% 21.6% 38.7% -0.1 10
1954-05-09 Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1369 1589 22.7% 21.3% 55.9% -22.1 3
1954-05-09 @ Nordnes W 3-1 1589 1369 55.9% 21.3% 22.7% +22.0 15
1954-05-09 Larvik Turn L 1-2 1521 1685 29.2% 21.5% 49.3% -15.7 8
1954-05-09 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1685 1521 49.3% 21.5% 29.2% +15.7 10
1954-05-09 Varegg W 2-0 1709 1308 76.9% 19.6% 3.5% +4.5 15
1954-05-09 @ Skeid L 0-2 1308 1709 3.5% 19.6% 76.9% -4.5 4
1954-05-09 Asker L 1-2 1608 1592 53.0% 21.5% 25.5% -25.7 11
1954-05-09 @ Viking W 2-1 1592 1608 25.5% 21.5% 53.0% +25.7 10
1954-05-17 Moss W 8-1 1659 1361 73.5% 20.3% 6.2% +20.5 13
1954-05-17 @ Fredrikstad L 1-8 1361 1659 6.2% 20.3% 73.5% -20.5 5
1954-05-17 Freidig D 0-0 1377 1363 52.7% 21.5% 25.7% -3.5 5
1954-05-17 @ Geithus D 0-0 1363 1377 25.7% 21.5% 52.7% +3.5 8
1954-05-17 Lillestrom D 3-3 1565 1700 32.8% 21.5% 45.6% +0.9 11
1954-05-17 @ IF Odd D 3-3 1700 1565 45.6% 21.5% 32.8% -0.9 14
1954-05-17 Sarpsborg L 0-1 1729 1472 71.7% 20.6% 7.7% -37.1 16
1954-05-17 @ Strommen W 1-0 1472 1729 7.7% 20.6% 71.7% +37.1 8
1954-05-17 Nordnes W 2-0 1618 1347 72.4% 20.5% 7.1% +8.9 12
1954-05-17 @ Asker L 0-2 1347 1618 7.1% 20.5% 72.4% -8.9 3
1954-05-17 Viking W 2-1 1700 1582 63.0% 21.3% 15.7% +9.3 12
1954-05-17 @ Larvik Turn L 1-2 1582 1700 15.7% 21.3% 63.0% -9.2 11
1954-05-17 Sandefjord D 1-1 1304 1506 24.7% 21.4% 53.9% +3.4 5
1954-05-17 @ Varegg D 1-1 1506 1304 53.9% 21.4% 24.7% -3.4 9
1954-05-23 Fredrikstad L 2-4 1366 1679 14.5% 20.9% 64.5% -13.3 8
1954-05-23 @ Freidig W 4-2 1679 1366 64.5% 20.9% 14.5% +13.3 15
1954-05-23 Lillestrom L 2-6 1341 1699 11.5% 20.7% 67.8% -18.7 5
1954-05-23 @ Moss W 6-2 1699 1341 67.8% 20.7% 11.5% +18.7 16
1954-05-23 Geithus W 3-2 1509 1373 64.5% 21.2% 14.3% +8.1 10
1954-05-23 @ Sarpsborg L 2-3 1373 1509 14.3% 21.2% 64.5% -8.1 5
1954-05-23 IF Odd W 3-1 1692 1565 63.7% 21.2% 15.0% +15.5 18
1954-05-23 @ Strommen L 1-3 1565 1692 15.0% 21.2% 63.7% -15.5 11
1954-05-23 Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1627 1611 53.0% 21.5% 25.5% -25.7 12
1954-05-23 @ Asker W 2-1 1611 1627 25.5% 21.5% 53.0% +25.7 17
1954-05-23 Larvik Turn L 2-3 1338 1710 10.8% 20.6% 68.6% -6.2 3
1954-05-23 @ Nordnes W 3-2 1710 1338 68.6% 20.6% 10.8% +6.2 14
1954-05-23 Skeid D 0-0 1502 1713 23.7% 21.4% 55.0% +4.1 10
1954-05-23 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1713 1502 55.0% 21.4% 23.7% -4.1 16
1954-05-23 Varegg D 1-1 1573 1307 72.2% 20.5% 7.3% -8.4 12
1954-05-23 @ Viking D 1-1 1307 1573 7.3% 20.5% 72.2% +8.4 6
1954-05-27 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1506 1637 33.5% 21.5% 45.0% -18.6 10
1954-05-27 @ Sandefjord W 1-0 1637 1506 45.0% 21.5% 33.5% +18.6 19
1954-05-27 Skeid L 1-3 1565 1709 31.6% 21.5% 46.9% -29.0 12
1954-05-27 @ Viking W 3-1 1709 1565 46.9% 21.5% 31.6% +29.0 18
1954-05-27 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1692 1517 67.2% 21.0% 11.7% +27.0 17
1954-05-27 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1517 1692 11.7% 21.0% 67.2% -27.0 10
1954-05-27 Strommen D 2-2 1365 1707 12.5% 20.8% 66.7% +5.0 6
1954-05-27 @ Geithus D 2-2 1707 1365 66.7% 20.8% 12.5% -5.0 19
1954-05-27 Freidig W 2-0 1718 1353 75.8% 19.9% 4.3% +5.4 18
1954-05-27 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1353 1718 4.3% 19.9% 75.8% -5.4 8
1954-05-27 Moss W 5-1 1550 1322 70.3% 20.8% 8.9% +17.4 13
1954-05-27 @ IF Odd L 1-5 1322 1550 8.9% 20.8% 70.3% -17.4 5
1954-05-27 Asker L 2-4 1716 1601 62.8% 21.3% 15.9% -47.1 14
1954-05-27 @ Larvik Turn W 4-2 1601 1716 15.9% 21.3% 62.8% +47.1 14
1954-05-27 Nordnes W 3-2 1315 1332 49.1% 21.6% 29.3% +15.0 8
1954-05-27 @ Varegg L 2-3 1332 1315 29.3% 21.6% 49.1% -15.0 3
1954-06-07 Geithus W 6-1 1720 1370 75.3% 20.0% 4.7% +11.4 19
1954-06-07 @ Fredrikstad L 1-6 1370 1720 4.7% 20.0% 75.3% -11.4 6
1954-06-07 Strommen D 1-1 1723 1702 53.6% 21.5% 24.9% -3.3 19
1954-06-07 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1702 1723 24.9% 21.5% 53.6% +3.4 20
1954-06-07 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1305 1490 26.5% 21.4% 52.0% +25.3 7
1954-06-07 @ Moss L 1-2 1490 1305 52.0% 21.4% 26.5% -25.3 10
1954-06-07 Freidig D 1-1 1567 1348 69.9% 20.8% 9.3% -7.8 14
1954-06-07 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1348 1567 9.3% 20.8% 69.9% +7.8 9
1954-06-07 Viking W 2-0 1738 1536 68.9% 20.9% 10.2% +12.5 20
1954-06-07 @ Skeid L 0-2 1536 1738 10.2% 20.9% 68.9% -12.5 12
1954-06-13 Varegg W 6-2 1648 1330 74.3% 20.2% 5.5% +9.3 16
1954-06-13 @ Asker L 2-6 1330 1648 5.5% 20.2% 74.3% -9.3 8
1954-06-13 Moss W 4-2 1355 1330 54.1% 21.5% 24.4% +21.0 11
1954-06-13 @ Freidig L 2-4 1330 1355 24.4% 21.5% 54.1% -21.0 7
1954-06-13 IF Odd W 2-1 1359 1560 24.8% 21.4% 53.8% +26.1 8
1954-06-13 @ Geithus L 1-2 1560 1359 53.8% 21.4% 24.8% -26.1 14
1954-06-13 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-3 1669 1655 52.7% 21.5% 25.8% +13.1 16
1954-06-13 @ Larvik Turn L 3-4 1655 1669 25.8% 21.5% 52.7% -13.1 19
1954-06-13 Lillestrom W 3-1 1465 1720 19.3% 21.2% 59.5% +49.7 12
1954-06-13 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1720 1465 59.5% 21.2% 19.3% -49.7 19
1954-06-13 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1705 1731 47.9% 21.6% 30.5% -57.6 20
1954-06-13 @ Strommen W 4-1 1731 1705 30.5% 21.6% 47.9% +57.5 21
1954-06-13 Sandefjord D 1-1 1523 1488 55.2% 21.5% 23.3% -3.8 13
1954-06-13 @ Viking D 1-1 1488 1523 23.3% 21.5% 55.2% +3.8 11
1954-06-20 Larvik Turn W 4-0 1658 1682 48.1% 21.6% 30.3% +61.5 18
1954-06-20 @ Asker L 0-4 1682 1658 30.3% 21.6% 48.1% -61.5 16
1954-06-20 Sandefjord W 4-1 1642 1491 65.6% 21.1% 13.3% +19.5 21
1954-06-20 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-4 1491 1642 13.3% 21.1% 65.6% -19.5 11
1954-06-20 Skeid L 0-3 1317 1751 7.8% 20.2% 72.0% -14.0 3
1954-06-20 @ Nordnes W 3-0 1751 1317 72.0% 20.2% 7.8% +14.0 22

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1954-06-27 Skeid W 2-1 1788 1765 53.9% 21.5% 24.6% +13.6 1-0
1954-06-27 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1765 1788 24.6% 21.5% 53.9% -13.6 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1953-08-16 5.89% Freidig 1399 3 @ Fredrikstad 1705 2
2 1954-05-17 7.66% Sarpsborg 1472 1 @ Strommen 1729 0
3 1954-05-02 14.75% Sandefjord 1492 3 @ Asker 1622 2
4 1954-05-27 15.94% Asker 1601 4 @ Larvik Turn 1716 2
5 1954-06-13 19.31% @ Sarpsborg 1465 3 Lillestrom 1720 1
6 1954-05-09 20.07% Geithus 1335 5 @ Moss 1403 3
7 1953-09-20 20.12% @ Nordnes 1331 2 Sandefjord 1577 0
8 1953-09-06 24.46% Strommen 1659 1 @ Fredrikstad 1684 0
9 1954-06-13 24.79% @ Geithus 1359 2 IF Odd 1560 1
10 1954-05-23 25.47% Sarpsborg 08 1611 2 @ Asker 1627 1
11 1954-05-09 25.50% Asker 1592 2 @ Viking 1608 1
12 1953-09-20 25.61% @ Sarpsborg 08 1514 2 Skeid 1708 1
13 1954-06-07 26.52% @ Moss 1305 2 Sarpsborg 1490 1
14 1953-08-30 27.32% Varegg 1364 2 @ Nordnes 1364 1
15 1953-07-26 27.33% Moss 1526 4 @ Geithus 1526 1
16 1953-10-11 28.43% @ IF Odd 1511 2 Fredrikstad 1681 1
17 1953-08-02 29.75% Strommen 1563 4 @ Sarpsborg 1544 1
18 1954-06-13 30.49% Fredrikstad 1731 4 @ Strommen 1705 1
19 1953-08-16 31.68% @ Sarpsborg 08 1470 3 Asker 1614 1
20 1953-10-25 31.79% @ Asker 1594 3 Skeid 1737 1
21 1953-10-11 32.37% Skeid 1714 2 @ Larvik Turn 1674 1
22 1953-10-04 33.83% Asker 1572 2 @ Sandefjord 1521 1
23 1953-08-02 34.31% Fredrikstad 1642 3 @ Moss 1587 0
24 1953-08-02 35.24% @ Viking 1549 2 Larvik Turn 1666 1
25 1953-09-27 35.43% IF Odd 1486 3 @ Freidig 1424 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-08-16 84.91 @ Lillestrom 7 1556 54.83% Moss 0 1524 23.67% 21.50%
2 1953-08-02 71.31 @ Sandefjord 6 1505 55.62% Varegg 0 1466 22.89% 21.49%
3 1953-08-02 63.54 Fredrikstad 3 1642 34.31% @ Moss 0 1587 44.10% 21.59%
4 1953-08-16 62.49 @ Larvik Turn 12 1645 69.78% Nordnes 0 1427 9.38% 20.83%
5 1953-08-02 61.99 Asker 3 1553 35.60% @ Nordnes 0 1489 42.81% 21.59%
6 1954-06-20 61.49 @ Asker 4 1658 48.10% Larvik Turn 0 1682 30.33% 21.58%
7 1953-07-26 60.96 Moss 4 1526 27.33% @ Geithus 1 1526 51.12% 21.55%
8 1953-08-02 58.34 Strommen 4 1563 29.75% @ Sarpsborg 1 1544 48.68% 21.57%
9 1954-06-13 57.55 Fredrikstad 4 1731 30.49% @ Strommen 1 1705 47.93% 21.58%
10 1953-09-20 56.60 @ Nordnes 2 1331 20.12% Sandefjord 0 1577 58.64% 21.24%
11 1953-10-04 52.38 @ Lillestrom 10 1636 69.79% Geithus 0 1418 9.38% 20.83%
12 1954-06-13 49.71 @ Sarpsborg 3 1465 19.31% Lillestrom 1 1720 59.48% 21.21%
13 1954-05-27 47.05 Asker 4 1601 15.94% @ Larvik Turn 2 1716 62.77% 21.29%
14 1953-10-11 45.19 @ Sarpsborg 5 1427 52.45% Freidig 1 1416 26.01% 21.54%
15 1953-08-02 41.90 @ Freidig 2 1357 36.57% Geithus 0 1465 41.87% 21.56%
16 1954-05-09 41.41 Geithus 5 1335 20.07% @ Moss 3 1403 58.50% 21.43%
17 1953-08-16 39.84 @ Sarpsborg 08 3 1470 31.68% Asker 1 1614 46.81% 21.52%
18 1953-10-25 39.76 @ Asker 3 1594 31.79% Skeid 1 1737 46.70% 21.52%
19 1953-07-26 37.59 @ Sarpsborg 08 2 1456 41.92% Nordnes 0 1526 36.50% 21.59%
20 1953-08-16 37.24 Strommen 2 1622 42.36% @ IF Odd 0 1510 36.08% 21.56%
21 1954-05-17 37.11 Sarpsborg 1 1472 7.66% @ Strommen 0 1729 71.73% 20.61%
22 1953-09-27 37.08 IF Odd 3 1486 35.43% @ Freidig 1 1424 42.99% 21.59%
23 1953-08-16 34.21 Freidig 3 1399 5.89% @ Fredrikstad 2 1705 73.81% 20.30%
24 1954-05-02 32.95 Larvik Turn 4 1652 64.36% @ Varegg 0 1341 14.68% 20.96%
25 1953-10-04 32.50 @ Skeid 2 1682 47.99% Larvik Turn 0 1707 30.43% 21.58%