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1952-53 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Skeid

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Asker

4.91 points above expected

19 points · 14.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyn Oslo

4.98 points below expected

8 points · 12.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skeid 14 10 3 1 23 48 10 +38 18.39 +4.61
2 Larvik Turn 14 10 2 2 22 44 11 +33 18.06 +3.94
3 Asker 14 6 7 1 19 20 14 +6 14.09 +4.91
4 Fredrikstad 14 7 4 3 18 40 19 +21 17.90 +0.10
5 Sarpsborg 14 7 4 3 18 20 17 +3 13.79 +4.21
6 Viking 14 7 3 4 17 23 17 +6 14.39 +2.61
7 Lillestrom 14 6 4 4 16 25 22 +3 17.93 -1.93
8 Strommen 14 6 3 5 15 30 21 +9 14.99 +0.01
9 Sandefjord 14 6 3 5 15 25 32 -7 12.23 +2.77
10 IF Odd 14 5 3 6 13 34 30 +4 14.07 -1.07
11 Sarpsborg 08 14 5 2 7 12 15 22 -7 13.54 -1.54
12 Lyn Oslo 14 3 2 9 8 24 31 -7 12.98 -4.98
13 Varegg 14 3 2 9 8 16 39 -23 12.69 -4.69
14 Ranheim 14 3 1 10 7 12 37 -25 9.10 -2.10
15 Brann 14 2 3 9 7 9 36 -27 10.43 -3.43
16 Arstad 14 2 2 10 6 11 38 -27 9.42 -3.42

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Larvik Turn 3
Skeid 2

Sim: 14.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Larvik Turn 1726 22 18.06 +3.94 93.6% 5 13 16 18 20 23 28
Skeid 1705 23 18.39 +4.61 96.4% 8 13 16 18 20 23 27
Fredrikstad 1640 18 17.90 +0.10 57.7% 5 13 16 18 20 23 28
Strommen 1549 15 14.99 +0.01 55.7% 3 10 13 15 17 20 27
Asker 1546 19 14.09 +4.91 95.7% 3 9 12 14 16 19 25
Viking 1534 17 14.39 +2.61 84.2% 4 9 12 14 17 19 26
Lillestrom 1534 16 17.93 -1.93 30.9% 7 13 16 18 20 23 27
IF Odd 1531 13 14.07 -1.07 42.9% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Sarpsborg 1526 18 13.79 +4.21 94.0% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Sandefjord 1466 15 12.23 +2.77 85.4% 1 7 10 12 14 17 24
Lyn Oslo 1431 8 12.98 -4.98 6.9% 2 8 11 13 15 18 24
Varegg 1409 8 12.69 -4.69 8.0% 3 8 11 13 15 18 25
Sarpsborg 08 1401 12 13.54 -1.54 36.9% 3 9 11 14 16 19 25
Brann 1319 7 10.43 -3.43 16.5% 0 6 8 10 12 15 22
Ranheim 1318 7 9.10 -2.10 30.5% 0 4 7 9 11 14 22
Arstad 1310 6 9.42 -3.42 16.7% 0 5 7 9 11 14 22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARS ASK BRA FRE IO LT LIL LO RAN SAN SAR S0 SKE STR VAR VIK
Arstad —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
1.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.31
0-0-2
1.97
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-2
1.75
Asker
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.50
0-2-0
1.92
0-2-0
2.07
1-1-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.64
1-1-0
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.04
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Brann
1-1-0
3.02
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
1.79
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.05
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.40
0-0-2
1.66
1-1-0
2.18
0-0-2
2.05
Fredrikstad
1-0-1
4.43
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.78
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.60
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
4.12
1-0-1
3.57
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.05
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.14
1-1-0
2.02
1-0-1
2.96
1-1-0
3.80
0-1-1
2.95
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Larvik Turn
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.41
 —
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
3.91
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
3.72
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lillestrom
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.48
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.53
1-0-1
2.82
 —
1-1-0
3.87
2-0-0
3.98
1-0-1
3.97
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lyn Oslo
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.60
1-0-1
1.66
0-1-1
1.69
 —
1-0-1
3.81
0-0-2
2.97
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Ranheim
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.76
0-0-2
1.21
0-0-2
1.59
1-0-1
1.75
 —
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
1.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.24
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.61
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
1.59
2-0-0
2.58
2-0-0
3.40
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg
1-1-0
3.86
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.51
0-1-1
2.06
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.65
2-0-0
2.36
2-0-0
2.83
0-1-1
2.86
Sarpsborg 08
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.84
0-0-2
1.81
1-0-1
1.91
2-0-0
2.86
0-0-2
3.84
1-1-0
2.98
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Skeid
2-0-0
4.26
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.18
0-2-0
2.95
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.91
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
3.73
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
3.57
Strommen
2-0-0
3.59
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.90
0-1-1
2.22
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.19
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.83
 —
1-0-1
3.20
1-1-0
3.04
Varegg
1-0-1
3.40
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.38
1-0-1
1.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.73
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
2.35
 —
0-1-1
2.10
Viking
2-0-0
3.81
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.51
1-0-1
1.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.99
0-1-1
2.51
1-1-0
3.46
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +3.7
Allowed 0.88 -5.2
Differential 0.86 +2.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%5.80%1.79%3.57%3.12%26.79%
16.25%8.04%4.46%3.57%0.89%2.68%25.89%
25.80%4.46%5.36%4.46%1.34%0.89%22.32%
31.79%3.57%4.46%1.79%0.45%—12.05%
43.57%0.89%1.34%0.45%——6.25%
5+3.12%2.68%0.89%———6.70%
Total26.79%25.89%22.32%12.05%6.25%6.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.77 +0.00
SD 1.83 1.83 2.87
CV 1.04 1.04 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%14.29%—7.14%14.29%64.29%
1——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
2—————7.14%7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%28.57%14.29%7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 2.71 -1.93
SD 1.31 2.13 2.27
CV 1.67 0.78 —
Max 4 7 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%——7.14%——21.43%
114.29%14.29%————28.57%
214.29%7.14%14.29%———35.71%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.00 +0.43
SD 1.02 1.11 1.28
CV 0.71 1.11 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—21.43%14.29%——42.86%
17.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%14.29%50.00%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%28.57%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 2.57 -1.93
SD 0.63 2.38 2.40
CV 0.99 0.92 —
Max 2 8 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
27.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%——42.86%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
Total21.43%35.71%28.57%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.36 +1.50
SD 2.54 1.01 2.79
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—7.14%7.14%14.29%——28.57%
27.14%—14.29%14.29%7.14%—42.86%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4——14.29%———14.29%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total7.14%14.29%42.86%28.57%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.14 +0.29
SD 1.65 1.03 2.20
CV 0.68 0.48 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
17.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
27.14%—————7.14%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
421.43%—————21.43%
5+14.29%—————14.29%
Total64.29%14.29%14.29%——7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.14 0.79 +2.36
SD 3.08 1.42 3.82
CV 0.98 1.81 —
Max 12 5 +12
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%———7.14%—14.29%
17.14%7.14%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
221.43%—14.29%7.14%——42.86%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%14.29%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.57 +0.21
SD 1.48 2.03 2.86
CV 0.83 1.29 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%—35.71%
1———14.29%7.14%—21.43%
2——7.14%14.29%——21.43%
3———————
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total7.14%21.43%28.57%28.57%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 2.21 -0.50
SD 1.98 1.19 2.38
CV 1.15 0.54 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%21.43%—7.14%14.29%50.00%
114.29%7.14%—7.14%——28.57%
2————7.14%7.14%14.29%
3———————
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%21.43%7.14%14.29%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.64 -1.79
SD 1.17 2.24 2.75
CV 1.36 0.85 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%—7.14%7.14%35.71%
1—7.14%————7.14%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
3—7.14%14.29%7.14%——28.57%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%28.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 2.29 -0.50
SD 1.58 3.00 3.90
CV 0.88 1.31 —
Max 4 12 +4
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%——7.14%—21.43%
114.29%14.29%—7.14%——35.71%
2—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%14.29%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.21 +0.21
SD 1.09 1.19 1.72
CV 0.76 0.98 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%—50.00%
17.14%7.14%————14.29%
2—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%7.14%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.57 -0.50
SD 1.27 1.34 1.99
CV 1.18 0.85 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
17.14%—————7.14%
214.29%—7.14%———21.43%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+14.29%21.43%————35.71%
Total50.00%35.71%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.43 0.71 +2.71
SD 2.50 0.91 2.58
CV 0.73 1.28 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%————21.43%
1—7.14%7.14%——7.14%21.43%
27.14%——14.29%——21.43%
3——7.14%———7.14%
414.29%7.14%————21.43%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%21.43%14.29%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.50 +0.64
SD 1.83 2.18 3.15
CV 0.86 1.45 —
Max 6 8 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————7.14%14.29%21.43%
114.29%14.29%21.43%——7.14%57.14%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%28.57%7.14%14.29%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.79 -1.64
SD 0.95 2.15 2.56
CV 0.83 0.77 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
1—14.29%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
27.14%21.43%—7.14%——35.71%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%50.00%14.29%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.21 +0.43
SD 1.01 0.97 1.40
CV 0.61 0.80 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Asker 19 14.09 +4.91
2 Skeid 23 18.39 +4.61
3 Sarpsborg 18 13.79 +4.21
4 Larvik Turn 22 18.06 +3.94
5 Sandefjord 15 12.23 +2.77

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 8 12.98 -4.98
2 Varegg 8 12.69 -4.69
3 Brann 7 10.43 -3.43
4 Arstad 6 9.42 -3.42
5 Ranheim 7 9.10 -2.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 08 4 Sep 7 – Apr 26 1 in 54
2 Larvik Turn 6 May 10 – Jun 7 1 in 31
3 Skeid 5 Aug 24 – Oct 12 1 in 28
4 Sarpsborg 3 May 3 – May 14 1 in 26
5 Ranheim 2 Aug 10 – Aug 24 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 6 Aug 24 – May 3 1 in 733
2 Varegg 5 Aug 10 – Sep 28 1 in 338
3 IF Odd 4 May 10 – May 24 1 in 53
4 Ranheim 6 May 3 – May 31 1 in 22
5 Arstad 4 Aug 3 – Sep 7 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Asker 10 Sep 14 – Jun 7 1 in 186
2 Skeid 8 Aug 3 – May 3 1 in 17
3 Larvik Turn 10 Sep 14 – Jun 7 1 in 14
4 Sarpsborg 4 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 13
5 Sandefjord 4 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Varegg 8 Aug 3 – May 3 1 in 58
2 Lyn Oslo 8 Aug 24 – May 14 1 in 52
3 Brann 8 Sep 14 – May 31 1 in 10
4 Ranheim 10 Sep 7 – May 31 1 in 9
5 Sarpsborg 08 4 May 17 – Jun 7 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Skeid46.84%26.30%13.12%7.51%3.64%1.66%0.79%0.14%
Larvik Turn43.92%26.90%13.58%7.61%4.21%2.33%1.16%0.29%
Asker6.43%12.89%18.06%18.14%16.01%13.04%10.41%5.02%
Fredrikstad33.31%31.48%17.29%9.74%4.86%2.02%1.03%0.27%
Sarpsborg3.71%8.61%15.29%19.21%21.37%16.94%10.08%4.79%
Viking5.79%12.17%17.99%21.12%17.44%13.65%8.19%3.65%
Lillestrom35.22%29.10%16.56%8.72%5.53%3.22%1.27%0.38%
Strommen8.24%15.04%22.37%19.30%15.70%10.87%6.17%2.31%
Sandefjord1.79%4.45%8.69%12.52%15.82%19.45%23.01%14.27%
IF Odd6.42%11.19%17.34%18.45%17.15%14.67%10.01%4.77%
Sarpsborg 083.76%8.06%13.44%17.06%18.32%17.40%14.72%7.24%
Lyn Oslo2.35%6.76%11.09%14.65%17.29%19.77%18.81%9.28%
Varegg1.73%4.59%9.19%13.78%18.87%22.87%18.29%10.68%
Ranheim0.11%0.65%1.24%2.85%5.67%10.12%20.61%58.75%
Brann0.30%1.20%2.91%5.68%10.71%18.24%29.56%31.40%
Arstad0.08%0.61%1.84%3.66%7.41%13.75%25.89%46.76%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.07%
Clear Edge
47.32%21.43%31.25%
Elo Value
Home Edge
105 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
056.33300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.61 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.53+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.0
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Skeid, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.42 * Some Luck: 2.42 to 3.62 * Lucky: 3.62 to 4.83 * Wild Swing: 4.83 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.28 * Close: 2.28 to 3.43 * Off: 3.43 to 4.57 * Way Off: 4.57 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.31 points
Some Luck
03.028
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.75
Pinpoint
02.856
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
96.44%
Skeid
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
6.89%
Lyn Oslo
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.47
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
91%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Very Frequent
0%38%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.29
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1530.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Larvik Turn — —
Skeid — —
Fredrikstad 65.39% 1.30%
Lillestrom 63.13% 1.65%
Strommen 83.28% 8.48%
Viking 82.37% 11.84%
IF Odd 78.80% 14.78%
Sarpsborg 81.42% 14.87%
Asker 78.14% 15.43%
Sarpsborg 08 74.28% 21.96%
Lyn Oslo 69.56% 28.09%
Varegg 69.30% 28.97%
Sandefjord 60.93% 37.28%
Brann 38.74% 60.96%
Arstad 27.27% 72.65%
Ranheim 20.53% 79.36%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AskerFredrikstadIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromLyn OsloSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SkeidStrommenVareggViking
Asker0.0%2.00%0.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%68.8%16.00%69.2%13.00%100.0%1.00%
IF Odd50.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Larvik Turn31.2%16.00%100.0%2.00%56.0%25.00%100.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Lillestrom30.8%13.00%50.0%2.00%30.8%13.00%25.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%
Lyn Oslo0.0%2.00%
Sarpsborg0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%
Sarpsborg 080.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Skeid100.0%3.00%100.0%2.00%44.0%25.00%69.2%13.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%
Strommen0.0%4.00%75.0%4.00%
Varegg0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Viking50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Larvik Turn 50.49%
Skeid 49.51%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Larvik TurnSkeid
Larvik Turn50.5%100.00%
Skeid49.5%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1952-08-03 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1485 1488 50.9% 22.4% 26.7% -1.2 1
1952-08-03 @ Asker D 2-2 1488 1485 26.7% 22.4% 50.9% +1.2 1
1952-08-03 Varegg D 1-1 1478 1553 41.4% 22.5% 36.0% -0.3 1
1952-08-03 @ Brann D 1-1 1553 1478 36.0% 22.5% 41.4% +0.3 1
1952-08-03 Sandefjord W 12-0 1553 1464 60.5% 22.1% 17.4% +63.6 2
1952-08-03 @ Larvik Turn L 0-12 1464 1553 17.4% 22.1% 60.5% -63.6 0
1952-08-03 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-2 1500 1478 53.8% 22.4% 23.8% +12.0 2
1952-08-03 @ IF Odd L 2-4 1478 1500 23.8% 22.4% 53.8% -12.0 0
1952-08-03 Lillestrom L 0-6 1423 1553 33.7% 22.4% 43.9% -56.7 0
1952-08-03 @ Ranheim W 6-0 1553 1423 43.9% 22.4% 33.7% +56.7 2
1952-08-03 Viking L 1-3 1491 1476 53.0% 22.4% 24.6% -25.8 0
1952-08-03 @ Sarpsborg W 3-1 1476 1491 24.6% 22.4% 53.0% +25.8 2
1952-08-03 Arstad W 5-0 1515 1437 59.5% 22.1% 18.3% +28.9 2
1952-08-03 @ Skeid L 0-5 1437 1515 18.3% 22.1% 59.5% -28.9 0
1952-08-03 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1485 1563 41.1% 22.5% 36.3% -0.3 1
1952-08-03 @ Strommen D 1-1 1563 1485 36.3% 22.5% 41.1% +0.3 1
1952-08-10 Strommen L 0-4 1408 1485 41.2% 22.5% 36.3% -45.4 0
1952-08-10 @ Arstad W 4-0 1485 1408 36.3% 22.5% 41.2% +45.4 3
1952-08-10 Skeid D 2-2 1563 1544 53.4% 22.4% 24.2% -1.5 2
1952-08-10 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1544 1563 24.2% 22.4% 53.4% +1.5 3
1952-08-10 IF Odd D 2-2 1610 1512 61.3% 22.0% 16.7% -2.3 3
1952-08-10 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1512 1610 16.7% 22.0% 61.3% +2.3 3
1952-08-10 Larvik Turn W 5-1 1489 1617 34.1% 22.4% 43.5% +39.5 3
1952-08-10 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1617 1489 43.5% 22.4% 34.1% -39.5 2
1952-08-10 Asker D 3-3 1401 1484 40.3% 22.5% 37.2% -0.1 1
1952-08-10 @ Sandefjord D 3-3 1484 1401 37.2% 22.5% 40.3% +0.1 2
1952-08-10 Ranheim L 0-1 1466 1366 61.5% 22.0% 16.5% -18.2 0
1952-08-10 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1366 1466 16.5% 22.0% 61.5% +18.2 2
1952-08-10 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1553 1466 60.4% 22.1% 17.5% -16.9 1
1952-08-10 @ Varegg W 2-1 1466 1553 17.5% 22.1% 60.4% +16.9 2
1952-08-10 Brann W 2-1 1502 1478 54.0% 22.4% 23.6% +7.7 4
1952-08-10 @ Viking L 1-2 1478 1502 23.6% 22.4% 54.0% -7.7 1
1952-08-24 Lillestrom D 2-2 1484 1608 34.6% 22.4% 42.9% +0.4 3
1952-08-24 @ Asker D 2-2 1608 1484 42.9% 22.4% 34.6% -0.4 4
1952-08-24 Fredrikstad L 1-8 1470 1561 39.1% 22.5% 38.4% -60.8 1
1952-08-24 @ Brann W 8-1 1561 1470 38.4% 22.5% 39.1% +60.8 4
1952-08-24 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-0 1577 1448 63.9% 21.8% 14.2% +14.3 4
1952-08-24 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1448 1577 14.2% 21.8% 63.9% -14.3 0
1952-08-24 Sandefjord D 2-2 1515 1401 62.7% 21.9% 15.4% -2.5 4
1952-08-24 @ IF Odd D 2-2 1401 1515 15.4% 21.9% 62.7% +2.5 2
1952-08-24 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1384 1529 31.8% 22.4% 45.8% +13.8 4
1952-08-24 @ Ranheim L 0-1 1529 1384 45.8% 22.4% 31.8% -13.8 3
1952-08-24 Arstad W 3-1 1482 1363 63.1% 21.9% 15.0% +8.9 4
1952-08-24 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1363 1482 15.0% 21.9% 63.1% -8.9 0
1952-08-24 Viking W 1-0 1546 1510 55.3% 22.3% 22.4% +7.8 5
1952-08-24 @ Skeid L 0-1 1510 1546 22.4% 22.3% 55.3% -7.8 4
1952-08-24 Varegg W 4-0 1531 1537 50.5% 22.5% 27.1% +32.5 5
1952-08-24 @ Strommen L 0-4 1537 1531 27.1% 22.5% 50.5% -32.5 1
1952-09-07 Brann L 0-1 1354 1409 44.2% 22.5% 33.3% -13.4 0
1952-09-07 @ Arstad W 1-0 1409 1354 33.3% 22.5% 44.2% +13.5 3
1952-09-07 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1622 1491 64.0% 21.8% 14.1% -2.7 5
1952-09-07 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1491 1622 14.1% 21.8% 64.0% +2.6 5
1952-09-07 Larvik Turn W 2-0 1607 1592 53.0% 22.4% 24.6% +15.8 6
1952-09-07 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1592 1607 24.6% 22.4% 53.0% -15.8 4
1952-09-07 IF Odd L 2-3 1515 1512 51.5% 22.4% 26.0% -13.8 3
1952-09-07 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1512 1515 26.0% 22.4% 51.5% +13.8 6
1952-09-07 Ranheim W 2-0 1403 1398 51.8% 22.4% 25.8% +16.5 4
1952-09-07 @ Sandefjord L 0-2 1398 1403 25.8% 22.4% 51.8% -16.5 4
1952-09-07 Asker W 3-0 1433 1485 44.7% 22.5% 32.8% +29.0 2
1952-09-07 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-3 1485 1433 32.8% 22.5% 44.7% -29.0 3
1952-09-07 Skeid L 1-6 1504 1553 45.0% 22.5% 32.5% -49.8 1
1952-09-07 @ Varegg W 6-1 1553 1504 32.5% 22.5% 45.0% +49.8 7
1952-09-07 Strommen L 2-3 1502 1563 43.4% 22.5% 34.1% -11.8 4
1952-09-07 @ Viking W 3-2 1563 1502 34.1% 22.5% 43.4% +11.8 7
1952-09-14 IF Odd W 2-1 1455 1526 42.1% 22.5% 35.4% +10.6 5
1952-09-14 @ Asker L 1-2 1526 1455 35.4% 22.5% 42.1% -10.6 6
1952-09-14 Skeid L 1-7 1423 1603 27.3% 22.2% 50.4% -39.5 3
1952-09-14 @ Brann W 7-1 1603 1423 50.4% 22.2% 27.3% +39.5 9
1952-09-14 Ranheim W 6-0 1576 1381 68.5% 21.3% 10.3% +20.2 6
1952-09-14 @ Larvik Turn L 0-6 1381 1576 10.3% 21.3% 68.5% -20.2 4
1952-09-14 Sarpsborg 08 L 2-3 1501 1462 55.6% 22.3% 22.1% -14.8 3
1952-09-14 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1462 1501 22.1% 22.3% 55.6% +14.8 4
1952-09-14 Lillestrom W 3-2 1420 1623 24.7% 22.1% 53.1% +14.1 6
1952-09-14 @ Sandefjord L 2-3 1623 1420 53.1% 22.1% 24.7% -14.1 6
1952-09-14 Strommen W 1-0 1494 1575 40.6% 22.5% 36.9% +11.6 7
1952-09-14 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1575 1494 36.9% 22.5% 40.6% -11.6 7
1952-09-14 Arstad L 3-4 1454 1341 62.7% 21.9% 15.4% -16.2 1
1952-09-14 @ Varegg W 4-3 1341 1454 15.4% 21.9% 62.7% +16.2 2
1952-09-14 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1490 1620 33.8% 22.4% 43.7% +12.6 6
1952-09-14 @ Viking L 1-2 1620 1490 43.7% 22.4% 33.8% -12.6 5
1952-09-28 Viking L 1-2 1357 1503 31.6% 22.4% 46.0% -9.7 2
1952-09-28 @ Arstad W 2-1 1503 1357 46.0% 22.4% 31.6% +9.7 8
1952-09-28 Varegg W 7-0 1607 1438 66.8% 21.5% 11.7% +26.5 7
1952-09-28 @ Fredrikstad L 0-7 1438 1607 11.7% 21.5% 66.8% -26.4 1
1952-09-28 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1609 1486 63.4% 21.9% 14.7% +10.2 8
1952-09-28 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1486 1609 14.7% 21.9% 63.4% -10.2 3
1952-09-28 Larvik Turn L 1-3 1515 1596 40.6% 22.5% 36.8% -20.5 6
1952-09-28 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1596 1515 36.8% 22.5% 40.6% +20.5 8
1952-09-28 Asker L 0-2 1361 1466 37.2% 22.5% 40.3% -22.1 4
1952-09-28 @ Ranheim W 2-0 1466 1361 40.3% 22.5% 37.2% +22.1 7
1952-09-28 Sandefjord W 1-0 1477 1434 56.1% 22.3% 21.6% +7.5 6
1952-09-28 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1434 1477 21.6% 22.3% 56.1% -7.5 6
1952-09-28 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1643 1506 64.5% 21.8% 13.7% +18.1 11
1952-09-28 @ Skeid L 0-4 1506 1643 13.7% 21.8% 64.5% -18.1 7
1952-10-12 Fredrikstad W 3-2 1347 1633 16.8% 21.6% 61.6% +16.2 4
1952-10-12 @ Arstad L 2-3 1633 1347 61.6% 21.6% 16.8% -16.3 7
1952-10-12 Ranheim D 1-1 1495 1339 65.9% 21.6% 12.5% -3.9 7
1952-10-12 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1339 1495 12.5% 21.6% 65.9% +3.8 5
1952-10-12 Lyn Oslo W 4-1 1426 1476 44.9% 22.5% 32.6% +24.4 8
1952-10-12 @ Sandefjord L 1-4 1476 1426 32.6% 22.5% 44.9% -24.4 3
1952-10-12 Strommen W 8-1 1661 1563 61.3% 22.0% 16.7% +30.1 13
1952-10-12 @ Skeid L 1-8 1563 1661 16.7% 22.0% 61.3% -30.1 7
1952-10-12 Varegg D 1-1 1512 1412 61.6% 22.0% 16.4% -3.2 9
1952-10-12 @ Viking D 1-1 1412 1512 16.4% 22.0% 61.6% +3.2 2
1953-04-26 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1383 1488 37.3% 22.5% 40.2% +0.2 4
1953-04-26 @ Brann D 1-1 1488 1383 40.2% 22.5% 37.3% -0.2 8
1953-04-26 Asker D 1-1 1616 1488 63.9% 21.8% 14.3% -3.5 9
1953-04-26 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1488 1616 14.3% 21.8% 63.9% +3.5 8
1953-04-26 Lillestrom W 2-1 1485 1619 33.2% 22.4% 44.4% +12.7 8
1953-04-26 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1619 1485 44.4% 22.4% 33.2% -12.7 8
1953-04-26 Strommen W 2-1 1617 1533 60.1% 22.1% 17.8% +6.0 9
1953-04-26 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1533 1617 17.8% 22.1% 60.1% -6.0 7
1953-05-03 Larvik Turn D 0-0 1492 1613 34.9% 22.5% 42.6% +0.5 9
1953-05-03 @ Asker D 0-0 1613 1492 42.6% 22.5% 34.9% -0.5 10
1953-05-03 Arstad W 7-2 1623 1363 72.1% 20.6% 7.3% +8.5 11
1953-05-03 @ Fredrikstad L 2-7 1363 1623 7.3% 20.6% 72.1% -8.5 4
1953-05-03 Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1606 1497 62.3% 21.9% 15.8% +5.7 10
1953-05-03 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1497 1606 15.8% 21.9% 62.3% -5.7 8
1953-05-03 Sandefjord L 1-3 1452 1451 51.3% 22.4% 26.2% -25.0 3
1953-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1451 1452 26.2% 22.4% 51.3% +25.0 10
1953-05-03 IF Odd L 2-4 1343 1491 31.4% 22.4% 46.2% -15.0 5
1953-05-03 @ Ranheim W 4-2 1491 1343 46.2% 22.4% 31.4% +15.0 9
1953-05-03 Brann W 3-0 1487 1383 61.9% 22.0% 16.2% +16.0 10
1953-05-03 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1383 1487 16.2% 22.0% 61.9% -16.0 4
1953-05-03 Skeid D 0-0 1527 1691 29.4% 22.3% 48.3% +1.4 8
1953-05-03 @ Strommen D 0-0 1691 1527 48.3% 22.3% 29.4% -1.4 14
1953-05-03 Viking L 2-3 1415 1509 38.7% 22.5% 38.8% -10.8 2
1953-05-03 @ Varegg W 3-2 1509 1415 38.8% 22.5% 38.7% +10.8 11
1953-05-10 Ranheim W 2-0 1492 1328 66.5% 21.5% 12.0% +8.4 11
1953-05-10 @ Asker L 0-2 1328 1492 12.0% 21.5% 66.5% -8.4 5
1953-05-10 Strommen L 0-2 1367 1529 29.7% 22.3% 48.0% -18.5 4
1953-05-10 @ Brann W 2-0 1529 1367 48.0% 22.3% 29.7% +18.4 10
1953-05-10 IF Odd W 3-2 1612 1506 62.1% 22.0% 16.0% +5.2 12
1953-05-10 @ Larvik Turn L 2-3 1506 1612 16.0% 22.0% 62.1% -5.2 9
1953-05-10 Lillestrom D 0-0 1427 1612 26.8% 22.2% 51.0% +1.8 4
1953-05-10 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1612 1427 51.0% 22.2% 26.8% -1.8 11
1953-05-10 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1476 1492 49.2% 22.5% 28.3% -1.4 11
1953-05-10 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1492 1476 28.3% 22.5% 49.2% +1.4 9
1953-05-10 Skeid W 1-0 1503 1690 26.7% 22.2% 51.1% +15.2 12
1953-05-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1690 1503 51.1% 22.2% 26.7% -15.2 14
1953-05-10 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1404 1632 22.1% 22.0% 55.9% +16.5 4
1953-05-10 @ Varegg L 0-1 1632 1404 55.9% 22.0% 22.1% -16.5 11
1953-05-10 Arstad W 2-0 1520 1355 66.6% 21.5% 11.9% +8.4 13
1953-05-10 @ Viking L 0-2 1355 1520 11.9% 21.5% 66.6% -8.4 4
1953-05-14 Varegg L 0-1 1347 1420 41.6% 22.5% 35.9% -12.8 4
1953-05-14 @ Arstad W 1-0 1420 1347 35.9% 22.5% 41.6% +12.8 6
1953-05-14 Viking W 2-1 1615 1528 60.3% 22.1% 17.6% +6.0 13
1953-05-14 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1528 1615 17.6% 22.1% 60.3% -6.0 13
1953-05-14 Sandefjord W 2-0 1610 1474 64.5% 21.8% 13.8% +9.6 13
1953-05-14 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1474 1610 13.8% 21.8% 64.5% -9.6 11
1953-05-14 Asker L 1-3 1501 1501 51.2% 22.4% 26.4% -25.0 9
1953-05-14 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1501 1501 26.4% 22.4% 51.2% +25.0 13
1953-05-14 Larvik Turn L 0-1 1320 1618 15.9% 21.5% 62.7% -5.7 5
1953-05-14 @ Ranheim W 1-0 1618 1320 62.7% 21.5% 15.9% +5.7 14
1953-05-14 Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1493 1428 58.2% 22.2% 19.6% +11.3 11
1953-05-14 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1428 1493 19.6% 22.2% 58.2% -11.3 4
1953-05-14 Brann W 2-0 1674 1349 75.0% 19.8% 5.2% +3.7 16
1953-05-14 @ Skeid L 0-2 1349 1674 5.2% 19.8% 75.0% -3.7 4
1953-05-14 Sarpsborg L 2-3 1547 1519 54.5% 22.4% 23.2% -14.5 10
1953-05-14 @ Strommen W 3-2 1519 1547 23.2% 22.4% 54.5% +14.5 14
1953-05-17 Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1526 1504 53.7% 22.4% 23.9% -2.2 14
1953-05-17 @ Asker D 0-0 1504 1526 23.9% 22.4% 53.7% +2.2 12
1953-05-17 Arstad D 0-0 1345 1334 52.5% 22.4% 25.0% -2.1 5
1953-05-17 @ Brann D 0-0 1334 1345 25.0% 22.4% 52.5% +2.1 5
1953-05-17 Lillestrom W 4-0 1623 1620 51.6% 22.4% 25.9% +31.4 16
1953-05-17 @ Larvik Turn L 0-4 1620 1623 25.9% 22.4% 51.6% -31.4 13
1953-05-17 Lyn Oslo L 2-4 1476 1417 57.6% 22.2% 20.1% -25.0 9
1953-05-17 @ IF Odd W 4-2 1417 1476 20.1% 22.2% 57.6% +25.0 6
1953-05-17 Sandefjord L 0-4 1314 1465 31.0% 22.4% 46.6% -36.3 5
1953-05-17 @ Ranheim W 4-0 1465 1314 46.6% 22.4% 31.0% +36.3 13
1953-05-17 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1533 1621 39.6% 22.5% 37.9% -12.3 14
1953-05-17 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1621 1533 37.9% 22.5% 39.6% +12.3 15
1953-05-17 Varegg W 5-0 1678 1433 71.3% 20.7% 7.9% +13.3 18
1953-05-17 @ Skeid L 0-5 1433 1678 7.9% 20.7% 71.3% -13.3 6
1953-05-17 Viking D 0-0 1533 1522 52.4% 22.4% 25.2% -2.0 11
1953-05-17 @ Strommen D 0-0 1522 1533 25.2% 22.4% 52.4% +2.0 14
1953-05-24 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1336 1521 26.8% 22.2% 51.0% +1.8 6
1953-05-24 @ Arstad D 0-0 1521 1336 51.0% 22.2% 26.8% -1.8 15
1953-05-24 Brann W 2-0 1633 1343 73.5% 20.2% 6.3% +4.5 17
1953-05-24 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1343 1633 6.3% 20.2% 73.5% -4.5 5
1953-05-24 Asker D 1-1 1588 1523 58.3% 22.2% 19.5% -2.7 14
1953-05-24 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1523 1588 19.5% 22.2% 58.3% +2.7 15
1953-05-24 Ranheim W 6-2 1442 1278 66.5% 21.5% 11.9% +11.3 8
1953-05-24 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-6 1278 1442 11.9% 21.5% 66.5% -11.3 5
1953-05-24 IF Odd W 3-2 1501 1451 56.8% 22.3% 20.9% +6.6 15
1953-05-24 @ Sandefjord L 2-3 1451 1501 20.9% 22.3% 56.8% -6.6 9
1953-05-24 Larvik Turn L 0-2 1507 1655 31.4% 22.4% 46.2% -19.3 12
1953-05-24 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1655 1507 46.2% 22.4% 31.4% +19.3 18
1953-05-24 Strommen W 3-2 1420 1531 36.4% 22.5% 41.1% +11.3 8
1953-05-24 @ Varegg L 2-3 1531 1420 41.1% 22.5% 36.4% -11.3 11
1953-05-24 Skeid L 1-3 1525 1691 29.0% 22.3% 48.7% -15.7 14
1953-05-24 @ Viking W 3-1 1691 1525 48.7% 22.3% 29.0% +15.7 20
1953-05-31 Brann W 4-1 1519 1339 67.6% 21.4% 11.0% +9.5 13
1953-05-31 @ Strommen L 1-4 1339 1519 11.0% 21.4% 67.6% -9.5 5
1953-05-31 Skeid L 0-2 1338 1707 11.2% 20.8% 68.1% -7.8 6
1953-05-31 @ Arstad W 2-0 1707 1338 68.1% 20.8% 11.2% +7.8 22
1953-05-31 Ranheim W 3-1 1586 1266 74.8% 19.9% 5.4% +3.3 16
1953-05-31 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1266 1586 5.4% 19.9% 74.8% -3.3 5
1953-05-31 Asker L 0-1 1453 1526 41.8% 22.5% 35.7% -12.8 8
1953-05-31 @ Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1526 1453 35.7% 22.5% 41.8% +12.8 17
1953-05-31 Larvik Turn L 0-4 1507 1674 29.0% 22.3% 48.7% -34.4 15
1953-05-31 @ Sandefjord W 4-0 1674 1507 48.7% 22.3% 29.0% +34.4 20
1953-05-31 IF Odd L 0-2 1487 1444 56.1% 22.3% 21.6% -31.4 12
1953-05-31 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1444 1487 21.6% 22.3% 56.1% +31.4 11
1953-05-31 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1509 1519 50.0% 22.5% 27.6% -1.5 15
1953-05-31 @ Viking D 1-1 1519 1509 27.6% 22.5% 50.0% +1.5 16
1953-06-03 Brann L 1-2 1431 1329 61.7% 22.0% 16.3% -17.2 8
1953-06-03 @ Varegg W 2-1 1329 1431 16.3% 22.0% 61.7% +17.2 7
1953-06-07 Sandefjord W 1-0 1539 1473 58.4% 22.2% 19.4% +6.9 19
1953-06-07 @ Asker L 0-1 1473 1539 19.4% 22.2% 58.4% -6.9 15
1953-06-07 Viking L 0-3 1346 1507 29.7% 22.3% 48.0% -26.8 7
1953-06-07 @ Brann W 3-0 1507 1346 48.0% 22.3% 29.7% +26.8 17
1953-06-07 Lyn Oslo W 4-0 1708 1441 72.5% 20.5% 7.0% +9.6 22
1953-06-07 @ Larvik Turn L 0-4 1441 1708 7.0% 20.5% 72.5% -9.6 8
1953-06-07 Lillestrom W 7-1 1476 1589 36.0% 22.5% 41.5% +55.2 13
1953-06-07 @ IF Odd L 1-7 1589 1476 41.5% 22.5% 36.0% -55.2 16
1953-06-07 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-0 1263 1456 25.9% 22.2% 51.9% +55.3 7
1953-06-07 @ Ranheim L 0-4 1456 1263 51.9% 22.2% 25.9% -55.3 12
1953-06-07 Varegg W 2-1 1521 1414 62.1% 22.0% 16.0% +5.5 18
1953-06-07 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1414 1521 16.0% 22.0% 62.1% -5.5 8
1953-06-07 Fredrikstad D 3-3 1715 1638 59.4% 22.1% 18.4% -1.8 23
1953-06-07 @ Skeid D 3-3 1638 1715 18.4% 22.1% 59.4% +1.8 18
1953-06-07 Arstad W 6-0 1529 1330 68.8% 21.2% 10.0% +19.8 15
1953-06-07 @ Strommen L 0-6 1330 1529 10.0% 21.2% 68.8% -19.8 6

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1953-06-21 Skeid W 3-2 1718 1713 51.8% 22.4% 25.8% +7.8 1-0
1953-06-21 @ Larvik Turn L 2-3 1713 1718 25.8% 22.4% 51.8% -7.8 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1952-09-14 15.41% Arstad 1341 4 @ Varegg 1454 3
2 1953-06-03 16.29% Brann 1329 2 @ Varegg 1431 1
3 1952-08-10 16.47% Ranheim 1366 1 @ Sarpsborg 08 1466 0
4 1952-10-12 16.80% @ Arstad 1347 3 Fredrikstad 1633 2
5 1952-08-10 17.48% Sarpsborg 1466 2 @ Varegg 1553 1
6 1953-05-17 20.13% Lyn Oslo 1417 4 @ IF Odd 1476 2
7 1953-05-31 21.63% IF Odd 1444 2 @ Sarpsborg 08 1487 0
8 1952-09-14 22.10% Sarpsborg 08 1462 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1501 2
9 1953-05-10 22.14% @ Varegg 1404 1 Fredrikstad 1632 0
10 1953-05-14 23.18% Sarpsborg 1519 3 @ Strommen 1547 2
11 1952-08-03 24.64% Viking 1476 3 @ Sarpsborg 1491 1
12 1952-09-14 24.72% @ Sandefjord 1420 3 Lillestrom 1623 2
13 1953-06-07 25.90% @ Ranheim 1263 4 Sarpsborg 08 1456 0
14 1952-09-07 26.03% IF Odd 1512 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1515 2
15 1953-05-03 26.20% Sandefjord 1451 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1452 1
16 1953-05-14 26.35% Asker 1501 3 @ IF Odd 1501 1
17 1953-05-10 26.69% @ Sarpsborg 1503 1 Skeid 1690 0
18 1952-08-24 31.82% @ Ranheim 1384 1 Lyn Oslo 1529 0
19 1952-09-07 32.53% Skeid 1553 6 @ Varegg 1504 1
20 1953-04-26 33.18% @ Sarpsborg 08 1485 2 Lillestrom 1619 1
21 1952-09-07 33.29% Brann 1409 1 @ Arstad 1354 0
22 1952-09-14 33.83% @ Viking 1490 2 Fredrikstad 1620 1
23 1952-08-10 34.07% @ Lyn Oslo 1489 5 Larvik Turn 1617 1
24 1952-09-07 34.10% Strommen 1563 3 @ Viking 1502 2
25 1953-05-31 35.71% Asker 1526 1 @ Lyn Oslo 1453 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1952-08-03 63.63 @ Larvik Turn 12 1553 60.52% Sandefjord 0 1464 17.40% 22.07%
2 1952-08-24 60.80 Fredrikstad 8 1561 38.36% @ Brann 1 1470 39.13% 22.51%
3 1952-08-03 56.72 Lillestrom 6 1553 43.89% @ Ranheim 0 1423 33.68% 22.43%
4 1953-06-07 55.27 @ Ranheim 4 1263 25.90% Sarpsborg 08 0 1456 51.91% 22.19%
5 1953-06-07 55.19 @ IF Odd 7 1476 35.99% Lillestrom 1 1589 41.53% 22.47%
6 1952-09-07 49.81 Skeid 6 1553 32.53% @ Varegg 1 1504 44.95% 22.52%
7 1952-08-10 45.44 Strommen 4 1485 36.26% @ Arstad 0 1408 41.22% 22.52%
8 1952-08-10 39.53 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1489 34.07% Larvik Turn 1 1617 43.49% 22.44%
9 1952-09-14 39.50 Skeid 7 1603 50.42% @ Brann 1 1423 27.33% 22.25%
10 1953-05-17 36.28 Sandefjord 4 1465 46.60% @ Ranheim 0 1314 31.03% 22.37%
11 1953-05-31 34.37 Larvik Turn 4 1674 48.66% @ Sandefjord 0 1507 29.03% 22.31%
12 1952-08-24 32.54 @ Strommen 4 1531 50.48% Varegg 0 1537 27.06% 22.46%
13 1953-05-17 31.43 @ Larvik Turn 4 1623 51.62% Lillestrom 0 1620 25.94% 22.44%
14 1953-05-31 31.37 IF Odd 2 1444 21.63% @ Sarpsborg 08 0 1487 56.06% 22.30%
15 1952-10-12 30.07 @ Skeid 8 1661 61.30% Strommen 1 1563 16.68% 22.02%
16 1952-09-07 29.05 @ Sarpsborg 08 3 1433 44.72% Asker 0 1485 32.76% 22.52%
17 1952-08-03 28.90 @ Skeid 5 1515 59.52% Arstad 0 1437 18.34% 22.14%
18 1953-06-07 26.81 Viking 3 1507 47.96% @ Brann 0 1346 29.71% 22.33%
19 1952-09-28 26.45 @ Fredrikstad 7 1607 66.83% Varegg 0 1438 11.68% 21.49%
20 1952-08-03 25.75 Viking 3 1476 24.64% @ Sarpsborg 1 1491 52.96% 22.41%
21 1953-05-03 25.04 Sandefjord 3 1451 26.20% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1452 51.35% 22.45%
22 1953-05-14 24.96 Asker 3 1501 26.35% @ IF Odd 1 1501 51.20% 22.45%
23 1953-05-17 24.96 Lyn Oslo 4 1417 20.13% @ IF Odd 2 1476 57.63% 22.24%
24 1952-10-12 24.41 @ Sandefjord 4 1426 44.87% Lyn Oslo 1 1476 32.61% 22.52%
25 1952-09-28 22.10 Asker 2 1466 40.30% @ Ranheim 0 1361 37.21% 22.49%