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1952-53 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Skeid

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Skeid

7.62 points above expected

23 points · 15.38 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Varegg

7.31 points below expected

8 points · 15.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Skeid 14 10 3 1 23 48 10 +38 15.4 +7.62
2 Larvik Turn 14 10 2 2 22 44 11 +33 16.5 +5.50
3 Asker 14 6 7 1 19 20 14 +6 13.7 +5.28
4 Fredrikstad 14 7 4 3 18 40 19 +21 14.8 +3.20
5 Sarpsborg 14 7 4 3 18 20 17 +3 13.7 +4.33
6 Viking 14 7 3 4 17 23 17 +6 13.8 +3.16
7 Lillestrom 14 6 4 4 16 25 22 +3 16.4 -0.45
8 Strommen 14 6 3 5 15 30 21 +9 14.2 +0.81
9 Sandefjord 14 6 3 5 15 25 32 -7 12.9 +2.10
10 IF Odd 14 5 3 6 13 34 30 +4 13.6 -0.60
11 Sarpsborg 08 14 5 2 7 12 15 22 -7 13.4 -1.38
12 Lyn Oslo 14 3 2 9 8 24 31 -7 13.2 -5.22
13 Varegg 14 3 2 9 8 16 39 -23 15.3 -7.31
14 Ranheim 14 3 1 10 7 12 37 -25 12.2 -5.22
15 Brann 14 2 3 9 7 9 36 -27 12.7 -5.74
16 Arstad 14 2 2 10 6 11 38 -27 12.1 -6.08

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Larvik Turn 3
Skeid 2

Sim: 476.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Larvik Turn 1592 22 16.50 +5.50 97.7% 5 11 14 17 19 21 26
Lillestrom 1554 16 16.45 -0.45 49.8% 4 11 14 17 19 22 28
Skeid 1553 23 15.38 +7.62 99.7% 4 10 13 15 18 20 27
Fredrikstad 1527 18 14.80 +3.20 88.3% 4 10 13 15 17 20 27
Varegg 1511 8 15.31 -7.31 1.4% 4 10 13 15 17 20 27
Strommen 1506 15 14.19 +0.81 66.0% 3 9 12 14 16 19 26
Asker 1501 19 13.72 +5.28 96.7% 4 8 12 14 16 19 26
IF Odd 1496 13 13.60 -0.60 48.4% 3 9 11 14 16 19 26
Viking 1495 17 13.84 +3.16 88.2% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Sarpsborg 1493 18 13.67 +4.33 93.9% 3 9 12 14 16 19 25
Sandefjord 1476 15 12.90 +2.10 79.4% 2 8 11 13 15 18 25
Lyn Oslo 1471 8 13.22 -5.22 6.6% 3 8 11 13 15 18 24
Sarpsborg 08 1471 12 13.38 -1.38 39.3% 2 8 11 13 16 19 24
Brann 1439 7 12.74 -5.74 4.4% 2 8 11 13 15 18 23
Ranheim 1435 7 12.22 -5.22 6.5% 2 7 10 12 14 17 25
Arstad 1425 6 12.08 -6.08 3.3% 1 7 10 12 14 17 25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARS ASK BRA FRE IO LT LIL LO RAN SAN SAR S0 SKE STR VAR VIK
Arstad —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.22
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.42
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.17
0-0-2
2.42
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
2.44
Asker
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.72
0-2-0
2.22
0-2-0
2.26
1-1-0
2.86
2-0-0
3.03
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Brann
1-1-0
2.89
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.46
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.31
0-0-2
2.44
1-1-0
2.26
0-0-2
2.58
Fredrikstad
1-0-1
3.33
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.10
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.95
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.64
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.96
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.26
1-1-0
2.24
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
3.05
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Larvik Turn
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.33
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.29
 —
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
3.46
2-0-0
3.60
2-0-0
3.40
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.39
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lillestrom
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.28
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.31
1-0-1
2.76
 —
1-1-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
3.46
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.37
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lyn Oslo
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.67
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-1
2.14
 —
1-0-1
3.01
0-0-2
2.82
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Ranheim
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.48
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
2.06
1-0-1
2.53
 —
0-0-2
2.63
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.67
0-0-2
2.15
1-0-1
2.10
2-0-0
2.71
2-0-0
2.89
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg
1-1-0
3.11
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.44
2-0-0
2.66
2-0-0
2.47
0-1-1
2.79
Sarpsborg 08
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.68
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.74
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
2.19
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-2
3.03
1-1-0
2.83
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Skeid
2-0-0
3.37
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.25
0-2-0
2.89
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.10
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
2.73
2-0-0
3.04
Strommen
2-0-0
3.13
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.10
0-1-1
2.67
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.87
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.50
 —
1-0-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.85
Varegg
1-0-1
3.39
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.29
1-0-1
2.82
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.82
1-0-1
3.01
 —
0-1-1
2.99
Viking
2-0-0
3.10
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.94
1-0-1
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.74
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.49
0-1-1
2.67
1-1-0
2.55
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%5.80%1.79%3.57%3.12%26.79%
16.25%8.04%4.46%3.57%0.89%2.68%25.89%
25.80%4.46%5.36%4.46%1.34%0.89%22.32%
31.79%3.57%4.46%1.79%0.45%—12.05%
43.57%0.89%1.34%0.45%——6.25%
5+3.12%2.68%0.89%———6.70%
Total26.79%25.89%22.32%12.05%6.25%6.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.77
Mean allowed1.77
StdDev scored1.83
StdDev allowed1.83
Mean total goals/game3.54
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.209
Sample size (games)112
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%14.29%—7.14%14.29%64.29%
1——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
2—————7.14%7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%28.57%14.29%7.14%21.43%100%

Arstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.79
Mean allowed2.71
StdDev scored1.31
StdDev allowed2.13
Mean total goals/game3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.197
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%——7.14%——21.43%
114.29%14.29%————28.57%
214.29%7.14%14.29%———35.71%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%14.29%——100%

Asker — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.43
Mean allowed1.00
StdDev scored1.02
StdDev allowed1.11
Mean total goals/game2.43
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.273
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—21.43%14.29%——42.86%
17.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%14.29%50.00%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%28.57%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Brann — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.64
Mean allowed2.57
StdDev scored0.63
StdDev allowed2.38
Mean total goals/game3.21
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.095
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
27.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%——42.86%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
Total21.43%35.71%28.57%14.29%——100%

Fredrikstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.86
Mean allowed1.36
StdDev scored2.54
StdDev allowed1.01
Mean total goals/game4.21
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.069
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—7.14%7.14%14.29%——28.57%
27.14%—14.29%14.29%7.14%—42.86%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4——14.29%———14.29%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total7.14%14.29%42.86%28.57%7.14%—100%

IF Odd — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.43
Mean allowed2.14
StdDev scored1.65
StdDev allowed1.03
Mean total goals/game4.57
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.311
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
17.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
27.14%—————7.14%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
421.43%—————21.43%
5+14.29%—————14.29%
Total64.29%14.29%14.29%——7.14%100%

Larvik Turn — Summary Statistics

Mean scored3.14
Mean allowed0.79
StdDev scored3.08
StdDev allowed1.42
Mean total goals/game3.93
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.343
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%———7.14%—14.29%
17.14%7.14%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
221.43%—14.29%7.14%——42.86%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%14.29%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Lillestrom — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.79
Mean allowed1.57
StdDev scored1.48
StdDev allowed2.03
Mean total goals/game3.36
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.316
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%—35.71%
1———14.29%7.14%—21.43%
2——7.14%14.29%——21.43%
3———————
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total7.14%21.43%28.57%28.57%14.29%—100%

Lyn Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.71
Mean allowed2.21
StdDev scored1.98
StdDev allowed1.19
Mean total goals/game3.93
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.070
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%21.43%—7.14%14.29%50.00%
114.29%7.14%—7.14%——28.57%
2————7.14%7.14%14.29%
3———————
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%21.43%7.14%14.29%21.43%100%

Ranheim — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.86
Mean allowed2.64
StdDev scored1.17
StdDev allowed2.24
Mean total goals/game3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.227
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%—7.14%7.14%35.71%
1—7.14%————7.14%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
3—7.14%14.29%7.14%——28.57%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%28.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Sandefjord — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.79
Mean allowed2.29
StdDev scored1.58
StdDev allowed3.00
Mean total goals/game4.07
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.393
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%——7.14%—21.43%
114.29%14.29%—7.14%——35.71%
2—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%14.29%7.14%7.14%—100%

Sarpsborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.43
Mean allowed1.21
StdDev scored1.09
StdDev allowed1.19
Mean total goals/game2.64
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.136
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%—50.00%
17.14%7.14%————14.29%
2—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%7.14%14.29%—100%

Sarpsborg 08 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.07
Mean allowed1.57
StdDev scored1.27
StdDev allowed1.34
Mean total goals/game2.64
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.161
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
17.14%—————7.14%
214.29%—7.14%———21.43%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+14.29%21.43%————35.71%
Total50.00%35.71%7.14%7.14%——100%

Skeid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored3.43
Mean allowed0.71
StdDev scored2.50
StdDev allowed0.91
Mean total goals/game4.14
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.091
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%————21.43%
1—7.14%7.14%——7.14%21.43%
27.14%——14.29%——21.43%
3——7.14%———7.14%
414.29%7.14%————21.43%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%21.43%14.29%14.29%—7.14%100%

Strommen — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.14
Mean allowed1.50
StdDev scored1.83
StdDev allowed2.18
Mean total goals/game3.64
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.231
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————7.14%14.29%21.43%
114.29%14.29%21.43%——7.14%57.14%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%28.57%7.14%14.29%21.43%100%

Varegg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.14
Mean allowed2.79
StdDev scored0.95
StdDev allowed2.15
Mean total goals/game3.93
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.247
Games played14
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
1—14.29%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
27.14%21.43%—7.14%——35.71%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%50.00%14.29%14.29%——100%

Viking — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.64
Mean allowed1.21
StdDev scored1.01
StdDev allowed0.97
Mean total goals/game2.86
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.006
Games played14

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Skeid 23 15.4 +7.62
2 Larvik Turn 22 16.5 +5.50
3 Asker 19 13.7 +5.28
4 Sarpsborg 18 13.7 +4.33
5 Fredrikstad 18 14.8 +3.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Varegg 8 15.3 -7.31
2 Arstad 6 12.1 -6.08
3 Brann 7 12.7 -5.74
4 Lyn Oslo 8 13.2 -5.22
5 Ranheim 7 12.2 -5.22

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 5 Aug 24 – Oct 12 1 in 87
2 Larvik Turn 6 May 10 – Jun 7 1 in 82
3 Sarpsborg 08 4 Sep 7 – Apr 26 1 in 40
4 Strommen 3 Aug 10 – Sep 7 1 in 27
5 Sarpsborg 3 May 3 – May 14 1 in 17

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Varegg 5 Aug 10 – Sep 28 1 in 575
2 Lyn Oslo 6 Aug 24 – May 3 1 in 409
3 Ranheim 6 May 3 – May 31 1 in 121
4 IF Odd 4 May 10 – May 24 1 in 52
5 Arstad 4 Aug 3 – Sep 7 1 in 37

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Asker 10 Sep 14 – Jun 7 1 in 209
2 Skeid 8 Aug 3 – May 3 1 in 40
3 Larvik Turn 10 Sep 14 – Jun 7 1 in 33
4 Viking 5 Sep 14 – May 10 1 in 10
5 Sarpsborg 4 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Varegg 8 Aug 3 – May 3 1 in 141
2 Lyn Oslo 8 Aug 24 – May 14 1 in 42
3 Ranheim 10 Sep 7 – May 31 1 in 39
4 Brann 8 Sep 14 – May 31 1 in 32
5 Arstad 7 May 3 – Jun 7 1 in 12

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Skeid25.10%18.34%15.25%12.79%9.92%8.28%6.16%4.16%
Larvik Turn34.58%22.22%14.81%10.33%7.07%5.56%3.48%1.95%
Asker8.92%11.58%15.06%14.82%13.94%14.11%11.84%9.73%
Fredrikstad17.22%16.59%15.17%14.27%11.99%10.85%8.39%5.52%
Sarpsborg8.45%11.64%11.82%13.41%14.19%14.70%13.57%12.22%
Viking10.41%12.32%12.67%13.15%14.05%13.89%12.53%10.98%
Lillestrom29.01%22.83%15.49%11.53%8.57%6.38%3.84%2.35%
Strommen12.82%13.19%13.83%14.09%13.18%12.41%11.12%9.36%
Sandefjord4.69%7.14%10.78%12.84%14.56%14.60%17.26%18.13%
IF Odd7.77%12.18%13.53%14.49%14.03%14.28%12.74%10.98%
Sarpsborg 086.35%9.89%11.65%13.32%14.84%14.33%15.09%14.53%
Lyn Oslo5.66%9.27%11.29%12.87%14.36%15.19%16.32%15.04%
Varegg17.77%16.14%15.18%13.24%12.39%10.46%8.85%5.97%
Ranheim3.02%4.89%7.39%9.80%12.63%15.55%19.43%27.29%
Brann4.81%7.16%8.93%10.16%13.04%14.57%19.07%22.26%
Arstad3.42%4.62%7.15%8.89%11.24%14.84%20.31%29.53%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Promotion Playoff Bracket

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. Two-leg ties show their aggregate score with each leg listed below the matchup card.

Finals

Larvik Turn 3
Skeid 2

Sim: 476.0%

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Larvik Turn 60.0% 5.4%
Lillestrom 64.8% 6.2%
Skeid 64.6% 10.3%
Fredrikstad 68.9% 13.9%
Varegg 67.4% 14.8%
Strommen 66.7% 20.5%
Asker 69.5% 21.6%
Viking 66.1% 23.5%
IF Odd 68.5% 23.7%
Sarpsborg 65.8% 25.8%
Sarpsborg 08 64.0% 29.6%
Lyn Oslo 63.0% 31.4%
Sandefjord 59.9% 35.4%
Brann 53.9% 41.3%
Ranheim 50.3% 46.7%
Arstad 46.7% 49.8%
Loser →
↓ Winner
ArstadAskerBrannFredrikstadIF OddLarvik TurnLillestromLyn OsloRanheimSandefjordSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SkeidStrommenVareggViking
Arstad15.00%9.00%34.00%33.00%7.00%3.00%8.00%15.00%
Asker17.00%28.00%69.00%43.00%89.00%65.00%59.00%51.00%
Brann22.00%18.00%50.00%42.00%10.00%9.00%12.00%16.00%
Fredrikstad101.00%79.00%239.00%208.00%51.00%35.00%37.00%70.00%
IF Odd12.00%16.00%49.00%35.00%82.00%46.00%87.00%49.00%
Larvik Turn96.00%107.00%360.00%171.00%476.00%260.00%430.00%245.00%
Lillestrom52.00%96.00%270.00%148.00%351.00%215.00%287.00%174.00%
Lyn Oslo11.00%15.00%50.00%30.00%55.00%33.00%44.00%29.00%
Ranheim6.00%10.00%25.00%11.00%27.00%12.00%27.00%10.00%
Sandefjord13.00%16.00%25.00%21.00%50.00%24.00%45.00%22.00%
Sarpsborg34.00%27.00%107.00%105.00%22.00%11.00%18.00%26.00%
Sarpsborg 0811.00%14.00%54.00%36.00%63.00%38.00%36.00%29.00%
Skeid116.00%112.00%385.00%386.00%98.00%47.00%65.00%108.00%
Strommen58.00%44.00%174.00%175.00%40.00%24.00%30.00%44.00%
Varegg83.00%72.00%203.00%233.00%42.00%27.00%53.00%49.00%
Viking42.00%40.00%121.00%126.00%29.00%18.00%30.00%26.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Skeid 53.0%
Larvik Turn 47.0%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Larvik TurnSkeid
Larvik Turn47.00%
Skeid53.00%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1952-08-03 Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1488 1483 50.9% 23.4% 25.7% -0.2 1
1952-08-03 @ Asker D 2-2 1483 1488 25.7% 23.4% 50.9% +0.2 1
1952-08-03 Varegg D 1-1 1481 1552 40.5% 24.4% 35.1% -0.1 1
1952-08-03 @ Brann D 1-1 1552 1481 35.1% 24.4% 40.5% +0.1 1
1952-08-03 Sandefjord W 12-0 1552 1477 59.8% 20.5% 19.7% +12.0 3
1952-08-03 @ Larvik Turn L 0-12 1477 1552 19.7% 20.5% 59.8% -12.0 0
1952-08-03 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-2 1490 1482 51.2% 23.3% 25.5% +2.2 3
1952-08-03 @ IF Odd L 2-4 1482 1490 25.5% 23.3% 51.2% -2.2 0
1952-08-03 Lillestrom L 0-6 1470 1552 39.0% 24.3% 36.8% -11.3 0
1952-08-03 @ Ranheim W 6-0 1552 1470 36.8% 24.3% 39.0% +11.3 3
1952-08-03 Viking L 1-3 1487 1482 50.7% 23.4% 25.8% -4.4 0
1952-08-03 @ Sarpsborg W 3-1 1482 1487 25.8% 23.4% 50.7% +4.4 3
1952-08-03 Arstad W 5-0 1500 1461 55.3% 22.2% 22.5% +6.0 3
1952-08-03 @ Skeid L 0-5 1461 1500 22.5% 22.2% 55.3% -6.0 0
1952-08-03 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1489 1498 48.9% 23.8% 27.3% -0.3 1
1952-08-03 @ Strommen D 1-1 1498 1489 27.3% 23.8% 48.9% +0.2 1
1952-08-10 Strommen L 0-4 1455 1489 45.5% 24.2% 30.2% -8.8 0
1952-08-10 @ Arstad W 4-0 1489 1455 30.2% 24.2% 45.5% +8.8 4
1952-08-10 Skeid D 2-2 1498 1506 49.1% 23.8% 27.1% -0.2 2
1952-08-10 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1506 1498 27.1% 23.8% 49.1% +0.2 4
1952-08-10 IF Odd D 2-2 1563 1492 59.4% 20.7% 19.9% -0.4 4
1952-08-10 @ Lillestrom D 2-2 1492 1563 19.9% 20.7% 59.4% +0.4 4
1952-08-10 Larvik Turn W 5-1 1483 1564 39.1% 24.3% 36.6% +6.2 4
1952-08-10 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-5 1564 1483 36.6% 24.3% 39.1% -6.1 3
1952-08-10 Asker D 3-3 1465 1488 47.1% 24.1% 28.8% -0.1 1
1952-08-10 @ Sandefjord D 3-3 1488 1465 28.8% 24.1% 47.1% +0.1 2
1952-08-10 Ranheim L 0-1 1480 1458 53.0% 22.9% 24.1% -2.8 0
1952-08-10 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1458 1480 24.1% 22.9% 53.0% +2.8 3
1952-08-10 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1552 1482 59.2% 20.8% 20.0% -2.8 1
1952-08-10 @ Varegg W 2-1 1482 1552 20.0% 20.8% 59.2% +2.8 3
1952-08-10 Brann W 2-1 1487 1481 51.0% 23.4% 25.7% +1.5 6
1952-08-10 @ Viking L 1-2 1481 1487 25.7% 23.4% 51.0% -1.5 1
1952-08-24 Lillestrom D 2-2 1488 1563 40.0% 24.3% 35.7% -0.0 3
1952-08-24 @ Asker D 2-2 1563 1488 35.7% 24.3% 40.0% +0.0 5
1952-08-24 Fredrikstad L 1-8 1479 1498 47.6% 24.0% 28.4% -12.7 1
1952-08-24 @ Brann W 8-1 1498 1479 28.4% 24.0% 47.6% +12.7 5
1952-08-24 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-0 1558 1477 60.6% 20.2% 19.2% +3.2 6
1952-08-24 @ Larvik Turn L 0-3 1477 1558 19.2% 20.2% 60.6% -3.2 0
1952-08-24 Sandefjord D 2-2 1493 1465 53.8% 22.7% 23.6% -0.3 5
1952-08-24 @ IF Odd D 2-2 1465 1493 23.6% 22.7% 53.8% +0.3 2
1952-08-24 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1461 1489 46.4% 24.2% 29.4% +1.7 6
1952-08-24 @ Ranheim L 0-1 1489 1461 29.4% 24.2% 46.4% -1.7 4
1952-08-24 Arstad W 3-1 1485 1446 55.3% 22.2% 22.5% +2.2 6
1952-08-24 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1446 1485 22.5% 22.2% 55.3% -2.2 0
1952-08-24 Viking W 1-0 1506 1488 52.5% 23.0% 24.5% +1.5 7
1952-08-24 @ Skeid L 0-1 1488 1506 24.5% 23.0% 52.5% -1.5 6
1952-08-24 Varegg W 4-0 1498 1549 43.2% 24.4% 32.4% +6.7 7
1952-08-24 @ Strommen L 0-4 1549 1498 32.4% 24.4% 43.2% -6.8 1
1952-09-07 Brann L 0-1 1444 1466 47.1% 24.1% 28.8% -2.5 0
1952-09-07 @ Arstad W 1-0 1466 1444 28.8% 24.1% 47.1% +2.5 4
1952-09-07 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1511 1488 53.2% 22.8% 23.9% -0.3 6
1952-09-07 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1488 1511 23.9% 22.8% 53.2% +0.3 7
1952-09-07 Larvik Turn W 2-0 1563 1561 50.4% 23.5% 26.1% +3.0 8
1952-09-07 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1561 1563 26.1% 23.5% 50.4% -3.0 6
1952-09-07 IF Odd L 2-3 1487 1492 49.4% 23.7% 26.9% -2.4 4
1952-09-07 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1492 1487 26.9% 23.7% 49.4% +2.3 8
1952-09-07 Ranheim W 2-0 1465 1463 50.5% 23.5% 26.0% +3.0 5
1952-09-07 @ Sandefjord L 0-2 1463 1465 26.0% 23.5% 50.5% -3.0 6
1952-09-07 Asker W 3-0 1474 1488 48.3% 23.9% 27.8% +4.5 3
1952-09-07 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-3 1488 1474 27.8% 23.9% 48.3% -4.6 3
1952-09-07 Skeid L 1-6 1542 1508 54.7% 22.4% 22.9% -10.4 1
1952-09-07 @ Varegg W 6-1 1508 1542 22.9% 22.4% 54.7% +10.4 10
1952-09-07 Strommen L 2-3 1487 1504 47.8% 24.0% 28.2% -2.3 6
1952-09-07 @ Viking W 3-2 1504 1487 28.2% 24.0% 47.8% +2.3 10
1952-09-14 IF Odd W 2-1 1483 1495 48.6% 23.8% 27.5% +1.6 6
1952-09-14 @ Asker L 1-2 1495 1483 27.5% 23.8% 48.6% -1.5 8
1952-09-14 Skeid L 1-7 1469 1518 43.5% 24.4% 32.1% -10.2 4
1952-09-14 @ Brann W 7-1 1518 1469 32.1% 24.4% 43.5% +10.2 13
1952-09-14 Ranheim W 6-0 1558 1460 62.8% 19.2% 18.0% +5.6 9
1952-09-14 @ Larvik Turn L 0-6 1460 1558 18.0% 19.2% 62.8% -5.6 6
1952-09-14 Sarpsborg 08 L 2-3 1485 1479 50.9% 23.4% 25.7% -2.4 4
1952-09-14 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1479 1485 25.7% 23.4% 50.9% +2.4 6
1952-09-14 Lillestrom W 3-2 1468 1566 36.9% 24.1% 39.0% +1.9 8
1952-09-14 @ Sandefjord L 2-3 1566 1468 39.0% 24.1% 36.9% -1.9 8
1952-09-14 Strommen W 1-0 1488 1507 47.6% 24.0% 28.4% +1.7 10
1952-09-14 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1507 1488 28.4% 24.0% 47.6% -1.7 10
1952-09-14 Arstad L 3-4 1532 1441 61.9% 19.6% 18.5% -2.7 1
1952-09-14 @ Varegg W 4-3 1441 1532 18.5% 19.6% 61.9% +2.7 3
1952-09-14 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1484 1511 46.6% 24.1% 29.2% +1.6 9
1952-09-14 @ Viking L 1-2 1511 1484 29.2% 24.1% 46.6% -1.6 6
1952-09-28 Viking L 1-2 1444 1486 44.5% 24.3% 31.2% -2.3 3
1952-09-28 @ Arstad W 2-1 1486 1444 31.2% 24.3% 44.5% +2.3 12
1952-09-28 Varegg W 7-0 1509 1529 47.4% 24.0% 28.5% +10.3 9
1952-09-28 @ Fredrikstad L 0-7 1529 1509 28.5% 24.0% 47.4% -10.3 1
1952-09-28 Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1564 1482 60.7% 20.1% 19.2% +2.2 11
1952-09-28 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1482 1564 19.2% 20.1% 60.7% -2.2 4
1952-09-28 Larvik Turn L 1-3 1493 1564 40.6% 24.4% 35.0% -3.7 8
1952-09-28 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1564 1493 35.0% 24.4% 40.6% +3.6 12
1952-09-28 Asker L 0-2 1454 1485 46.0% 24.2% 29.8% -4.7 6
1952-09-28 @ Ranheim W 2-0 1485 1454 29.8% 24.2% 46.0% +4.7 9
1952-09-28 Sandefjord W 1-0 1481 1470 51.6% 23.2% 25.2% +1.5 9
1952-09-28 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1470 1481 25.2% 23.2% 51.6% -1.5 8
1952-09-28 Sarpsborg W 4-0 1528 1489 55.3% 22.2% 22.5% +4.9 16
1952-09-28 @ Skeid L 0-4 1489 1528 22.5% 22.2% 55.3% -4.9 10
1952-10-12 Fredrikstad W 3-2 1442 1519 39.6% 24.3% 36.1% +1.8 6
1952-10-12 @ Arstad L 2-3 1519 1442 36.1% 24.3% 39.6% -1.8 9
1952-10-12 Ranheim D 1-1 1490 1450 55.4% 22.2% 22.4% -0.4 9
1952-10-12 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1450 1490 22.4% 22.2% 55.4% +0.4 7
1952-10-12 Lyn Oslo W 4-1 1469 1480 48.6% 23.8% 27.5% +3.8 11
1952-10-12 @ Sandefjord L 1-4 1480 1469 27.5% 23.8% 48.6% -3.8 4
1952-10-12 Strommen W 8-1 1533 1505 53.9% 22.6% 23.5% +7.1 19
1952-10-12 @ Skeid L 1-8 1505 1533 23.5% 22.6% 53.9% -7.1 10
1952-10-12 Varegg D 1-1 1488 1519 46.0% 24.2% 29.8% -0.2 13
1952-10-12 @ Viking D 1-1 1519 1488 29.8% 24.2% 46.0% +0.2 2
1953-04-26 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1459 1485 46.7% 24.1% 29.2% -0.2 5
1953-04-26 @ Brann D 1-1 1485 1459 29.2% 24.1% 46.7% +0.2 11
1953-04-26 Asker D 1-1 1567 1490 60.2% 20.3% 19.4% -0.5 13
1953-04-26 @ Larvik Turn D 1-1 1490 1567 19.4% 20.3% 60.2% +0.5 10
1953-04-26 Lillestrom W 2-1 1483 1566 38.8% 24.3% 36.9% +2.0 12
1953-04-26 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1566 1483 36.9% 24.3% 38.8% -2.0 11
1953-04-26 Strommen W 2-1 1518 1498 52.7% 23.0% 24.3% +1.4 12
1953-04-26 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1498 1518 24.3% 23.0% 52.7% -1.4 10
1953-05-03 Larvik Turn D 0-0 1490 1567 39.7% 24.3% 35.9% -0.0 11
1953-05-03 @ Asker D 0-0 1567 1490 35.9% 24.3% 39.7% +0.1 14
1953-05-03 Arstad W 7-2 1519 1443 59.9% 20.4% 19.6% +3.6 15
1953-05-03 @ Fredrikstad L 2-7 1443 1519 19.6% 20.4% 59.9% -3.6 6
1953-05-03 Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1564 1485 60.5% 20.2% 19.3% +1.2 14
1953-05-03 @ Lillestrom L 0-1 1485 1564 19.3% 20.2% 60.5% -1.2 12
1953-05-03 Sandefjord L 1-3 1476 1473 50.6% 23.5% 25.9% -4.4 4
1953-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1473 1476 25.9% 23.5% 50.6% +4.4 14
1953-05-03 IF Odd L 2-4 1450 1489 44.9% 24.3% 30.8% -3.5 7
1953-05-03 @ Ranheim W 4-2 1489 1450 30.8% 24.3% 44.9% +3.5 12
1953-05-03 Brann W 3-0 1485 1459 53.6% 22.7% 23.7% +3.9 14
1953-05-03 @ Sarpsborg L 0-3 1459 1485 23.7% 22.7% 53.6% -3.9 5
1953-05-03 Skeid D 0-0 1497 1540 44.2% 24.3% 31.4% -0.2 11
1953-05-03 @ Strommen D 0-0 1540 1497 31.4% 24.3% 44.2% +0.2 20
1953-05-03 Viking L 2-3 1519 1488 54.2% 22.5% 23.2% -2.5 2
1953-05-03 @ Varegg W 3-2 1488 1519 23.2% 22.5% 54.2% +2.5 16
1953-05-10 Ranheim W 2-0 1490 1446 55.9% 22.0% 22.1% +2.5 14
1953-05-10 @ Asker L 0-2 1446 1490 22.1% 22.0% 55.9% -2.5 7
1953-05-10 Strommen L 0-2 1455 1496 44.5% 24.3% 31.2% -4.6 5
1953-05-10 @ Brann W 2-0 1496 1455 31.2% 24.3% 44.5% +4.5 14
1953-05-10 IF Odd W 3-2 1567 1493 59.8% 20.5% 19.7% +1.1 17
1953-05-10 @ Larvik Turn L 2-3 1493 1567 19.7% 20.5% 59.8% -1.1 12
1953-05-10 Lillestrom D 0-0 1472 1565 37.5% 24.1% 38.4% +0.0 5
1953-05-10 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1565 1472 38.4% 24.1% 37.5% -0.0 15
1953-05-10 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1477 1483 49.3% 23.7% 27.0% -0.2 15
1953-05-10 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1483 1477 27.0% 23.7% 49.3% +0.3 13
1953-05-10 Skeid W 1-0 1489 1541 43.1% 24.4% 32.5% +1.9 17
1953-05-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1541 1489 32.5% 24.4% 43.1% -1.9 20
1953-05-10 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1517 1522 49.4% 23.7% 26.9% +1.6 5
1953-05-10 @ Varegg L 0-1 1522 1517 26.9% 23.7% 49.4% -1.6 15
1953-05-10 Arstad W 2-0 1491 1440 56.8% 21.7% 21.5% +2.5 19
1953-05-10 @ Viking L 0-2 1440 1491 21.5% 21.7% 56.8% -2.5 6
1953-05-14 Varegg L 0-1 1437 1518 39.1% 24.3% 36.5% -2.2 6
1953-05-14 @ Arstad W 1-0 1518 1437 36.5% 24.3% 39.1% +2.2 8
1953-05-14 Viking W 2-1 1521 1493 53.8% 22.7% 23.5% +1.3 18
1953-05-14 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1493 1521 23.5% 22.7% 53.8% -1.4 19
1953-05-14 Sandefjord W 2-0 1565 1477 61.6% 19.7% 18.7% +2.1 18
1953-05-14 @ Lillestrom L 0-2 1477 1565 18.7% 19.7% 61.6% -2.1 15
1953-05-14 Asker L 1-3 1492 1493 50.0% 23.6% 26.4% -4.3 12
1953-05-14 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1493 1492 26.4% 23.6% 50.0% +4.3 17
1953-05-14 Larvik Turn L 0-1 1444 1568 33.5% 23.5% 43.0% -1.9 7
1953-05-14 @ Ranheim W 1-0 1568 1444 43.0% 23.5% 33.5% +1.9 20
1953-05-14 Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1484 1472 51.7% 23.2% 25.1% +2.5 16
1953-05-14 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1472 1484 25.1% 23.2% 51.7% -2.5 5
1953-05-14 Brann W 2-0 1539 1450 61.6% 19.7% 18.7% +2.1 23
1953-05-14 @ Skeid L 0-2 1450 1539 18.7% 19.7% 61.6% -2.1 5
1953-05-14 Sarpsborg L 2-3 1501 1491 51.5% 23.3% 25.2% -2.4 14
1953-05-14 @ Strommen W 3-2 1491 1501 25.2% 23.3% 51.5% +2.4 20
1953-05-17 Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1497 1486 51.6% 23.2% 25.2% -0.4 18
1953-05-17 @ Asker D 0-0 1486 1497 25.2% 23.2% 51.6% +0.3 17
1953-05-17 Arstad D 0-0 1448 1435 51.8% 23.2% 25.0% -0.3 6
1953-05-17 @ Brann D 0-0 1435 1448 25.0% 23.2% 51.8% +0.3 7
1953-05-17 Lillestrom W 4-0 1570 1568 50.4% 23.5% 26.0% +5.6 23
1953-05-17 @ Larvik Turn L 0-4 1568 1570 26.0% 23.5% 50.4% -5.6 18
1953-05-17 Lyn Oslo L 2-4 1487 1470 52.5% 23.0% 24.5% -4.0 12
1953-05-17 @ IF Odd W 4-2 1470 1487 24.5% 23.0% 52.5% +4.0 8
1953-05-17 Sandefjord L 0-4 1442 1475 45.8% 24.2% 30.0% -8.8 7
1953-05-17 @ Ranheim W 4-0 1475 1442 30.0% 24.2% 45.8% +8.8 18
1953-05-17 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1493 1522 46.2% 24.2% 29.6% -2.5 20
1953-05-17 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1522 1493 29.6% 24.2% 46.2% +2.5 21
1953-05-17 Varegg W 5-0 1541 1520 52.8% 22.9% 24.2% +6.5 26
1953-05-17 @ Skeid L 0-5 1520 1541 24.2% 22.9% 52.8% -6.5 8
1953-05-17 Viking D 0-0 1499 1492 51.0% 23.4% 25.6% -0.3 15
1953-05-17 @ Strommen D 0-0 1492 1499 25.6% 23.4% 51.0% +0.3 20
1953-05-24 Sarpsborg D 0-0 1436 1491 42.7% 24.4% 32.9% -0.1 8
1953-05-24 @ Arstad D 0-0 1491 1436 32.9% 24.4% 42.7% +0.1 21
1953-05-24 Brann W 2-0 1525 1448 60.1% 20.4% 19.5% +2.2 24
1953-05-24 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1448 1525 19.5% 20.4% 60.1% -2.2 6
1953-05-24 Asker D 1-1 1562 1497 58.7% 21.0% 20.4% -0.5 19
1953-05-24 @ Lillestrom D 1-1 1497 1562 20.4% 21.0% 58.7% +0.5 19
1953-05-24 Ranheim W 6-2 1474 1433 55.5% 22.1% 22.4% +3.4 11
1953-05-24 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-6 1433 1474 22.4% 22.1% 55.5% -3.4 7
1953-05-24 IF Odd W 3-2 1483 1483 50.2% 23.6% 26.3% +1.4 21
1953-05-24 @ Sandefjord L 2-3 1483 1483 26.3% 23.6% 50.2% -1.4 12
1953-05-24 Larvik Turn L 0-2 1486 1575 38.0% 24.2% 37.7% -4.0 17
1953-05-24 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1575 1486 37.7% 24.2% 38.0% +4.0 26
1953-05-24 Strommen W 3-2 1514 1498 52.2% 23.1% 24.7% +1.3 11
1953-05-24 @ Varegg L 2-3 1498 1514 24.7% 23.1% 52.2% -1.3 15
1953-05-24 Skeid L 1-3 1492 1547 42.7% 24.4% 32.9% -3.8 20
1953-05-24 @ Viking W 3-1 1547 1492 32.9% 24.4% 42.7% +3.8 29
1953-05-31 Brann W 4-1 1497 1445 56.9% 21.6% 21.5% +3.0 18
1953-05-31 @ Strommen L 1-4 1445 1497 21.5% 21.6% 56.9% -3.0 6
1953-05-31 Skeid L 0-2 1435 1551 34.5% 23.7% 41.8% -3.7 8
1953-05-31 @ Arstad W 2-0 1551 1435 41.8% 23.7% 34.5% +3.7 32
1953-05-31 Ranheim W 3-1 1561 1430 66.9% 17.1% 16.0% +1.5 22
1953-05-31 @ Lillestrom L 1-3 1430 1561 16.0% 17.1% 66.9% -1.5 7
1953-05-31 Asker L 0-1 1477 1497 47.5% 24.0% 28.5% -2.5 11
1953-05-31 @ Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1497 1477 28.5% 24.0% 47.5% +2.5 22
1953-05-31 Larvik Turn L 0-4 1485 1580 37.3% 24.1% 38.6% -7.5 21
1953-05-31 @ Sandefjord W 4-0 1580 1485 38.6% 24.1% 37.3% +7.5 29
1953-05-31 IF Odd L 0-2 1482 1482 50.2% 23.5% 26.2% -5.0 17
1953-05-31 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1482 1482 26.2% 23.5% 50.2% +5.0 15
1953-05-31 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1488 1491 49.8% 23.6% 26.5% -0.3 21
1953-05-31 @ Viking D 1-1 1491 1488 26.5% 23.6% 49.8% +0.3 22
1953-06-03 Brann L 1-2 1515 1442 59.6% 20.6% 19.8% -2.9 11
1953-06-03 @ Varegg W 2-1 1442 1515 19.8% 20.6% 59.6% +2.9 9
1953-06-07 Sandefjord W 1-0 1500 1477 53.1% 22.9% 24.1% +1.5 25
1953-06-07 @ Asker L 0-1 1477 1500 24.1% 22.9% 53.1% -1.5 21
1953-06-07 Viking L 0-3 1445 1488 44.4% 24.3% 31.3% -6.6 9
1953-06-07 @ Brann W 3-0 1488 1445 31.3% 24.3% 44.4% +6.6 24
1953-06-07 Lyn Oslo W 4-0 1587 1475 64.5% 18.3% 17.1% +3.6 32
1953-06-07 @ Larvik Turn L 0-4 1475 1587 17.1% 18.3% 64.5% -3.6 11
1953-06-07 Lillestrom W 7-1 1487 1563 39.8% 24.3% 35.8% +8.8 18
1953-06-07 @ IF Odd L 1-7 1563 1487 35.8% 24.3% 39.8% -8.8 22
1953-06-07 Sarpsborg 08 W 4-0 1428 1477 43.5% 24.4% 32.1% +6.7 10
1953-06-07 @ Ranheim L 0-4 1477 1428 32.1% 24.4% 43.5% -6.7 17
1953-06-07 Varegg W 2-1 1491 1512 47.2% 24.1% 28.7% +1.6 25
1953-06-07 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1512 1491 28.7% 24.1% 47.2% -1.6 11
1953-06-07 Fredrikstad D 3-3 1555 1527 53.8% 22.7% 23.5% -0.2 33
1953-06-07 @ Skeid D 3-3 1527 1555 23.5% 22.7% 53.8% +0.2 25
1953-06-07 Arstad W 6-0 1500 1432 59.0% 20.8% 20.2% +6.4 21
1953-06-07 @ Strommen L 0-6 1432 1500 20.2% 20.8% 59.0% -6.4 8

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1953-06-21 Skeid W 3-2 1591 1555 54.9% 22.3% 22.8% +1.2 1-0
1953-06-21 @ Larvik Turn L 2-3 1555 1591 22.8% 22.3% 54.9% -1.2 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1952-09-14 18.52% Arstad 1441 4 @ Varegg 1532 3
2 1953-06-03 19.80% Brann 1442 2 @ Varegg 1515 1
3 1952-08-10 20.04% Sarpsborg 1482 2 @ Varegg 1552 1
4 1952-09-07 22.92% Skeid 1508 6 @ Varegg 1542 1
5 1953-05-03 23.24% Viking 1488 3 @ Varegg 1519 2
6 1952-08-10 24.10% Ranheim 1458 1 @ Sarpsborg 08 1480 0
7 1953-05-17 24.49% Lyn Oslo 1470 4 @ IF Odd 1487 2
8 1953-05-14 25.22% Sarpsborg 1491 3 @ Strommen 1501 2
9 1952-09-14 25.65% Sarpsborg 08 1479 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1485 2
10 1952-08-03 25.83% Viking 1482 3 @ Sarpsborg 1487 1
11 1953-05-03 25.89% Sandefjord 1473 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1476 1
12 1953-05-31 26.23% IF Odd 1482 2 @ Sarpsborg 08 1482 0
13 1953-05-14 26.39% Asker 1493 3 @ IF Odd 1492 1
14 1952-09-07 26.85% IF Odd 1492 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1487 2
15 1952-09-07 28.24% Strommen 1504 3 @ Viking 1487 2
16 1952-08-24 28.40% Fredrikstad 1498 8 @ Brann 1479 1
17 1953-05-31 28.50% Asker 1497 1 @ Lyn Oslo 1477 0
18 1952-09-07 28.84% Brann 1466 1 @ Arstad 1444 0
19 1953-05-17 29.60% Fredrikstad 1522 1 @ Sarpsborg 1493 0
20 1952-09-28 29.78% Asker 1485 2 @ Ranheim 1454 0
21 1953-05-17 30.02% Sandefjord 1475 4 @ Ranheim 1442 0
22 1952-08-10 30.22% Strommen 1489 4 @ Arstad 1455 0
23 1953-05-03 30.84% IF Odd 1489 4 @ Ranheim 1450 2
24 1953-05-10 31.16% Strommen 1496 2 @ Brann 1455 0
25 1952-09-28 31.23% Viking 1486 2 @ Arstad 1444 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1952-08-24 12.71 Fredrikstad 8 1498 28.40% @ Brann 1 1479 47.59%
2 1952-08-03 12.03 @ Larvik Turn 12 1552 59.83% Sandefjord 0 1477 19.67%
3 1952-08-03 11.35 Lillestrom 6 1552 36.76% @ Ranheim 0 1470 38.96%
4 1952-09-07 10.40 Skeid 6 1508 22.92% @ Varegg 1 1542 54.70%
5 1952-09-28 10.30 @ Fredrikstad 7 1509 47.42% Varegg 0 1529 28.55%
6 1952-09-14 10.23 Skeid 7 1518 32.13% @ Brann 1 1469 43.50%
7 1953-05-17 8.83 Sandefjord 4 1475 30.02% @ Ranheim 0 1442 45.75%
8 1952-08-10 8.79 Strommen 4 1489 30.22% @ Arstad 0 1455 45.53%
9 1953-06-07 8.79 @ IF Odd 7 1487 39.83% Lillestrom 1 1563 35.83%
10 1953-05-31 7.48 Larvik Turn 4 1580 38.59% @ Sandefjord 0 1485 37.29%
11 1952-10-12 7.10 @ Skeid 8 1533 53.87% Strommen 1 1505 23.49%
12 1952-08-24 6.75 @ Strommen 4 1498 43.19% Varegg 0 1549 32.43%
13 1953-06-07 6.69 @ Ranheim 4 1428 43.49% Sarpsborg 08 0 1477 32.13%
14 1953-06-07 6.59 Viking 3 1488 31.29% @ Brann 0 1445 44.38%
15 1953-05-17 6.47 @ Skeid 5 1541 52.83% Varegg 0 1520 24.24%
16 1953-06-07 6.37 @ Strommen 6 1500 59.01% Arstad 0 1432 20.16%
17 1952-08-10 6.15 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1483 39.11% Larvik Turn 1 1564 36.60%
18 1952-08-03 6.01 @ Skeid 5 1500 55.33% Arstad 0 1461 22.49%
19 1952-09-14 5.61 @ Larvik Turn 6 1558 62.80% Ranheim 0 1460 18.03%
20 1953-05-17 5.61 @ Larvik Turn 4 1570 50.45% Lillestrom 0 1568 26.04%
21 1953-05-31 5.01 IF Odd 2 1482 26.23% @ Sarpsborg 08 0 1482 50.22%
22 1952-09-28 4.89 @ Skeid 4 1528 55.26% Sarpsborg 0 1489 22.53%
23 1952-09-28 4.67 Asker 2 1485 29.78% @ Ranheim 0 1454 46.02%
24 1952-09-07 4.55 @ Sarpsborg 08 3 1474 48.30% Asker 0 1488 27.80%
25 1953-05-10 4.55 Strommen 2 1496 31.16% @ Brann 0 1455 44.52%