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1951-52 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fredrikstad

8.16 points above expected

26 points · 17.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Notodden

7.78 points below expected

4 points · 11.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 12 2 0 26 41 16 +25 17.84 +8.16
2 Sarpsborg 14 8 1 5 17 22 15 +7 13.75 +3.25
3 Brann 14 8 1 5 17 27 21 +6 13.86 +3.14
4 Skeid 14 6 3 5 15 33 19 +14 14.80 +0.20
5 IF Odd 14 7 1 6 15 30 23 +7 15.42 -0.42
6 Viking 14 5 5 4 15 21 19 +2 14.44 +0.56
7 Asker 14 6 2 6 14 27 23 +4 14.62 -0.62
8 Sarpsborg 08 14 5 4 5 14 18 18 0 13.35 +0.65
9 Lyn Oslo 14 5 4 5 14 19 20 -1 14.37 -0.37
10 Arstad 14 5 4 5 14 22 35 -13 11.65 +2.35
11 Valerenga 14 5 3 6 13 25 22 +3 15.38 -2.38
12 Sandefjord 14 5 3 6 13 16 19 -3 13.18 -0.18
13 Strommen 14 5 2 7 12 25 23 +2 13.94 -1.94
14 Kvik Trondheim 14 5 2 7 12 23 25 -2 13.79 -1.79
15 Orn-Horten 14 2 5 7 9 21 44 -23 11.84 -2.84
16 Notodden 14 0 4 10 4 9 37 -28 11.78 -7.78

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fredrikstad 3
Brann 1

Sim: 3.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1488 26 17.84 +8.16 99.9% 5 13 16 18 20 23 27
Skeid 1395 15 14.80 +0.20 59.1% 4 10 13 15 17 20 26
IF Odd 1375 15 15.42 -0.42 50.2% 4 10 13 15 18 21 27
Sarpsborg 1363 17 13.75 +3.25 87.2% 2 8 12 14 16 19 25
Valerenga 1362 13 15.38 -2.38 28.6% 4 10 13 15 18 21 27
Lyn Oslo 1359 14 14.37 -0.37 51.3% 2 9 12 14 17 20 25
Asker 1347 14 14.62 -0.62 48.4% 3 9 12 15 17 20 26
Brann 1343 17 13.86 +3.14 87.2% 2 9 12 14 16 19 26
Strommen 1340 12 13.94 -1.94 33.6% 2 9 12 14 16 19 26
Sarpsborg 08 1340 14 13.35 +0.65 63.6% 2 8 11 13 16 19 26
Viking 1338 15 14.44 +0.56 62.5% 2 9 12 14 17 20 27
Kvik Trondheim 1322 12 13.79 -1.79 35.4% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Sandefjord 1319 13 13.18 -0.18 54.1% 2 8 11 13 15 19 25
Arstad 1293 14 11.65 +2.35 80.9% 1 6 9 12 14 17 25
Orn-Horten 1250 9 11.84 -2.84 23.9% 1 7 10 12 14 17 23
Notodden 1229 4 11.78 -7.78 0.8% 2 7 10 12 14 17 23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARS ASK BRA FRE IO KT LO NOT ORN SAN SAR S0 SKE STR VAL VIK
Arstad —
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.01
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.15
Asker
1-1-0
3.20
 —
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.26
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.78
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
2.86
Brann
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
2.70
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.48
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.14
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.68
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.77
Fredrikstad
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.54
1-1-0
3.51
2-0-0
3.96
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.62
2-0-0
3.54
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
IF Odd
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.54
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.84
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.69
1-1-0
2.89
Kvik Trondheim
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.04
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
2.81
2-0-0
3.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.78
0-1-1
2.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.79
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lyn Oslo
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.06
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.76
 —
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.07
2-0-0
2.84
0-0-2
3.05
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.97
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Notodden
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.57
0-1-1
2.26
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.37
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Orn-Horten
0-2-0
2.84
0-0-2
2.32
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.04
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.22
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.99
0-1-1
2.40
Sandefjord
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.70
1-1-0
2.50
1-1-0
3.05
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.74
2-0-0
2.71
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.03
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-2
2.73
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.83
 —
1-1-0
2.85
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg 08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.72
2-0-0
2.53
1-1-0
3.13
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.86
0-1-1
2.72
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.62
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Skeid
0-0-2
3.57
0-1-1
2.78
2-0-0
2.89
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.73
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.81
Strommen
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.07
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
3.23
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.97
0-0-2
2.82
0-1-1
2.95
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Valerenga
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
2.81
0-0-2
3.12
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.88
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.59
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
2.89
Viking
0-1-1
3.42
2-0-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.68
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.76
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.68
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +4.9
Allowed 0.46 -3.7
Differential 0.77 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%6.70%3.12%2.23%1.79%3.12%21.43%
16.70%10.71%8.93%4.02%2.23%1.34%33.93%
23.12%8.93%2.68%2.68%1.34%0.89%19.64%
32.23%4.02%2.68%2.68%0.89%0.45%12.95%
41.79%2.23%1.34%0.89%——6.25%
5+3.12%1.34%0.89%0.45%——5.80%
Total21.43%33.93%19.64%12.95%6.25%5.80%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.69 +0.00
SD 1.50 1.50 2.29
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%———14.29%28.57%
114.29%7.14%——7.14%7.14%35.71%
2———————
3—7.14%—14.29%——21.43%
4—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%28.57%—21.43%7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 2.50 -0.93
SD 1.50 2.31 2.97
CV 0.96 0.92 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%———7.14%35.71%
17.14%—————7.14%
2—7.14%7.14%7.14%—7.14%28.57%
3——7.14%———7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total28.57%35.71%14.29%7.14%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.64 +0.29
SD 1.98 1.86 2.97
CV 1.03 1.14 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%35.71%
114.29%—————14.29%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total21.43%35.71%28.57%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.50 +0.43
SD 2.02 1.34 2.87
CV 1.05 0.90 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%—————14.29%
2——7.14%———7.14%
314.29%14.29%14.29%7.14%——50.00%
4—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%28.57%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.93 1.14 +1.79
SD 1.00 0.95 1.12
CV 0.34 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
1—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
214.29%14.29%—14.29%——42.86%
3—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total14.29%42.86%14.29%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.64 +0.50
SD 1.56 1.22 1.91
CV 0.73 0.74 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————7.14%—7.14%
114.29%14.29%21.43%7.14%7.14%—64.29%
2—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
3———————
47.14%—————7.14%
5+——7.14%———7.14%
Total21.43%21.43%28.57%14.29%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.79 -0.14
SD 1.55 1.37 2.28
CV 0.94 0.77 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
114.29%21.43%————35.71%
2—14.29%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
3—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%57.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.43 -0.07
SD 1.01 1.28 1.21
CV 0.74 0.90 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%——14.29%7.14%42.86%
1—14.29%14.29%7.14%14.29%—50.00%
2—————7.14%7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%14.29%7.14%28.57%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 2.64 -2.00
SD 0.63 1.91 1.80
CV 0.99 0.72 —
Max 2 6 +0
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————7.14%14.29%21.43%
1—14.29%7.14%7.14%—7.14%35.71%
2—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
3———14.29%——14.29%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total—21.43%14.29%28.57%14.29%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 3.14 -1.64
SD 1.22 1.70 2.41
CV 0.82 0.54 —
Max 4 6 +1
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%14.29%———35.71%
1—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
27.14%28.57%————35.71%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%50.00%21.43%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.36 -0.21
SD 1.03 0.93 1.31
CV 0.90 0.68 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%—7.14%——28.57%
1—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
27.14%28.57%————35.71%
3—14.29%————14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%71.43%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.07 +0.50
SD 1.28 0.73 1.79
CV 0.82 0.68 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——7.14%——14.29%
114.29%21.43%21.43%7.14%——64.29%
2—7.14%————7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%28.57%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.07 1.07 1.66
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
1—14.29%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
2——7.14%———7.14%
321.43%———7.14%—28.57%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total28.57%28.57%28.57%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.36 +1.00
SD 1.82 1.22 2.45
CV 0.77 0.90 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
1——28.57%7.14%——35.71%
27.14%14.29%—7.14%7.14%—35.71%
3———————
4———————
5+7.14%——7.14%——14.29%
Total28.57%14.29%28.57%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.64 +0.14
SD 1.53 1.34 1.92
CV 0.86 0.81 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——7.14%——14.29%
17.14%14.29%21.43%—7.14%7.14%57.14%
27.14%—————7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+14.29%—————14.29%
Total35.71%14.29%28.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.57 +0.21
SD 1.97 1.60 2.99
CV 1.10 1.02 —
Max 7 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%——7.14%——14.29%
17.14%28.57%7.14%7.14%——50.00%
27.14%7.14%——7.14%—21.43%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total28.57%35.71%14.29%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.36 +0.14
SD 1.29 1.28 1.96
CV 0.86 0.94 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 26 17.84 +8.16
2 Sarpsborg 17 13.75 +3.25
3 Brann 17 13.86 +3.14
4 Arstad 14 11.65 +2.35
5 Sarpsborg 08 14 13.35 +0.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Notodden 4 11.78 -7.78
2 Orn-Horten 9 11.84 -2.84
3 Valerenga 13 15.38 -2.38
4 Strommen 12 13.94 -1.94
5 Kvik Trondheim 12 13.79 -1.79

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredrikstad 10 Jul 29 – May 18 1 in 730
2 Brann 4 Sep 2 – Oct 14 1 in 60
3 IF Odd 5 Aug 19 – Oct 7 1 in 45
4 Asker 4 Jul 29 – Sep 2 1 in 36
5 Kvik Trondheim 3 Sep 2 – Sep 23 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Notodden 5 Sep 2 – May 4 1 in 53
2 Valerenga 3 Sep 2 – Oct 14 1 in 20
3 Asker 3 Sep 9 – May 4 1 in 18
4 Sandefjord 3 Sep 23 – May 11 1 in 13
5 Strommen 3 May 18 – May 25 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredrikstad 14 Jul 29 – Jun 8 1 in 70
2 Lyn Oslo 7 Oct 7 – May 25 1 in 36
3 Viking 5 Oct 14 – May 22 1 in 12
4 Brann 4 Sep 2 – Oct 14 1 in 9
5 Skeid 4 May 21 – Jun 8 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Notodden 14 Jul 29 – Jun 8 1 in 223
2 Orn-Horten 9 Jul 29 – May 11 1 in 54
3 Strommen 6 Oct 7 – May 25 1 in 27
4 Lyn Oslo 6 Jul 28 – Oct 7 1 in 25
5 IF Odd 4 May 18 – Jun 1 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad51.27%21.08%11.28%6.93%4.35%2.79%1.48%0.82%
Sarpsborg8.77%13.49%14.85%14.47%14.11%12.63%11.75%9.93%
Brann9.85%12.05%13.15%13.87%14.52%14.24%12.77%9.55%
Skeid17.99%16.16%14.81%13.91%12.74%10.25%8.90%5.24%
IF Odd21.56%17.82%15.56%13.12%11.07%9.48%6.99%4.40%
Viking12.47%13.36%14.33%14.09%13.53%13.56%10.70%7.96%
Asker13.76%14.84%14.73%14.06%13.09%11.92%10.19%7.41%
Sarpsborg 086.41%10.97%12.63%14.02%13.56%14.69%14.43%13.29%
Lyn Oslo9.61%15.02%15.34%14.67%14.09%12.21%10.80%8.26%
Arstad2.27%4.27%6.14%8.71%11.59%15.24%21.30%30.48%
Valerenga19.48%17.29%15.13%13.77%11.74%9.96%8.05%4.58%
Sandefjord5.43%9.35%10.87%13.71%14.56%14.77%15.35%15.96%
Strommen8.59%13.78%15.10%14.13%13.73%13.13%12.01%9.53%
Kvik Trondheim7.63%12.20%13.27%13.56%14.06%14.57%13.69%11.02%
Orn-Horten2.62%4.21%6.15%8.47%11.72%15.35%21.10%30.38%
Notodden2.29%4.11%6.66%8.51%11.54%15.21%20.49%31.19%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.82%
Slight Edge
44.64%20.54%34.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge
106 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
034.23300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.6
Wide Open
124612
Champion Preseason Odds
51%
Fredrikstad, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.64/gm
Comfortable
00.131/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.59 * Some Luck: 2.59 to 3.88 * Lucky: 3.88 to 5.17 * Wild Swing: 5.17 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 3.2 * Close: 3.2 to 4.8 * Off: 4.8 to 6.4 * Way Off: 6.4 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.31 points
Some Luck
03.238
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.25
Close
04.008
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.93%
Fredrikstad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
0.80%
Notodden
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.20
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Clear Edge
50%77%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.23
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.09
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.24
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
As Expected
0%30%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.20
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.065
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Brann — —
Fredrikstad — —
IF Odd 67.05% 11.39%
Valerenga 67.89% 12.63%
Skeid 67.87% 14.14%
Asker 68.64% 17.60%
Viking 68.87% 18.66%
Lyn Oslo 71.33% 19.06%
Strommen 69.87% 21.54%
Sarpsborg 69.55% 21.68%
Kvik Trondheim 67.66% 24.71%
Sarpsborg 08 65.87% 27.72%
Sandefjord 63.26% 31.31%
Orn-Horten 45.90% 51.48%
Notodden 46.03% 51.68%
Arstad 45.95% 51.78%
Loser →
↓ Winner
ArstadAskerBrannFredrikstadIF OddKvik TrondheimLyn OsloNotoddenOrn-HortenSandefjordSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SkeidStrommenValerengaViking
Arstad50.0%2.00%
Asker66.7%6.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%
Brann40.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad50.0%2.00%33.3%6.00%60.0%5.00%55.0%20.00%100.0%1.00%37.5%8.00%70.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%
IF Odd45.0%20.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Kvik Trondheim66.7%3.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%
Lyn Oslo0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%1.00%
Notodden0.0%1.00%
Orn-Horten0.0%1.00%
Sandefjord0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg0.0%3.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%
Sarpsborg 08100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Skeid62.5%8.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%40.0%5.00%
Strommen100.0%1.00%60.0%5.00%0.0%2.00%
Valerenga30.0%10.00%100.0%3.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%
Viking0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 69.34%
Brann 30.66%
Loser →
↓ Winner
BrannFredrikstad
Brann30.7%100.00%
Fredrikstad69.3%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1951-07-28 Strommen L 3-5 1368 1326 52.1% 21.3% 26.5% -9.5 0
1951-07-28 @ Lyn Oslo W 5-3 1326 1368 26.5% 21.3% 52.1% +9.5 2
1951-07-29 IF Odd W 3-2 1333 1361 43.1% 21.6% 35.3% +4.5 2
1951-07-29 @ Asker L 2-3 1361 1333 35.3% 21.6% 43.1% -4.5 0
1951-07-29 Skeid L 0-3 1321 1340 44.4% 21.6% 34.1% -16.4 0
1951-07-29 @ Brann W 3-0 1340 1321 34.1% 21.6% 44.4% +16.4 2
1951-07-29 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1333 1334 46.7% 21.5% 31.7% -0.4 1
1951-07-29 @ Kvik Trondheim D 1-1 1334 1333 31.7% 21.5% 46.7% +0.4 1
1951-07-29 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1328 1402 36.6% 21.5% 41.9% -5.2 0
1951-07-29 @ Sandefjord W 1-0 1402 1328 41.9% 21.5% 36.6% +5.1 2
1951-07-29 Notodden W 3-1 1332 1333 46.7% 21.5% 31.7% +7.5 2
1951-07-29 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1333 1332 31.7% 21.5% 46.7% -7.5 0
1951-07-29 Arstad W 7-0 1359 1333 50.3% 21.4% 28.3% +25.3 2
1951-07-29 @ Valerenga L 0-7 1333 1359 28.3% 21.4% 50.3% -25.3 0
1951-07-29 Orn-Horten W 5-0 1333 1328 47.5% 21.5% 30.9% +19.8 2
1951-07-29 @ Viking L 0-5 1328 1333 30.9% 21.5% 47.5% -19.8 0
1951-08-05 Asker L 1-5 1308 1337 42.9% 21.6% 35.6% -17.4 0
1951-08-05 @ Arstad W 5-1 1337 1308 35.6% 21.6% 42.9% +17.4 4
1951-08-05 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1407 1339 55.3% 21.2% 23.6% +3.6 4
1951-08-05 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1339 1407 23.6% 21.2% 55.3% -3.6 2
1951-08-05 Sandefjord D 0-0 1325 1323 47.2% 21.5% 31.3% -0.5 1
1951-08-05 @ Notodden D 0-0 1323 1325 31.3% 21.5% 47.2% +0.5 1
1951-08-05 Valerenga L 2-3 1356 1384 43.1% 21.6% 35.3% -5.2 0
1951-08-05 @ IF Odd W 3-2 1384 1356 35.3% 21.6% 43.1% +5.2 4
1951-08-05 Brann D 2-2 1308 1304 47.3% 21.5% 31.1% -0.3 1
1951-08-05 @ Orn-Horten D 2-2 1304 1308 31.1% 21.5% 47.3% +0.3 1
1951-08-05 Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1335 1358 43.7% 21.6% 34.7% +4.9 3
1951-08-05 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1358 1335 34.7% 21.6% 43.7% -4.9 0
1951-08-05 Viking D 1-1 1356 1352 47.4% 21.5% 31.1% -0.5 3
1951-08-05 @ Skeid D 1-1 1352 1356 31.1% 21.5% 47.4% +0.5 3
1951-08-05 Kvik Trondheim W 2-1 1336 1332 47.3% 21.5% 31.1% +4.3 4
1951-08-05 @ Strommen L 1-2 1332 1336 31.1% 21.5% 47.3% -4.3 1
1951-08-19 Skeid W 2-1 1355 1356 46.8% 21.5% 31.7% +4.3 6
1951-08-19 @ Asker L 1-2 1356 1355 31.7% 21.5% 46.8% -4.3 3
1951-08-19 IF Odd L 0-2 1305 1351 40.6% 21.6% 37.9% -10.5 1
1951-08-19 @ Brann W 2-0 1351 1305 37.9% 21.6% 40.6% +10.5 2
1951-08-19 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1328 1411 35.4% 21.5% 43.1% -11.6 1
1951-08-19 @ Kvik Trondheim W 4-1 1411 1328 43.1% 21.5% 35.4% +11.6 6
1951-08-19 Notodden D 1-1 1353 1325 50.5% 21.4% 28.0% -0.7 1
1951-08-19 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1325 1353 28.0% 21.4% 50.5% +0.7 2
1951-08-19 Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1324 1339 44.8% 21.6% 33.7% +4.5 3
1951-08-19 @ Sandefjord L 1-2 1339 1324 33.7% 21.6% 44.8% -4.5 3
1951-08-19 Strommen W 2-1 1336 1340 46.3% 21.6% 32.2% +4.4 4
1951-08-19 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1340 1336 32.2% 21.6% 46.3% -4.4 4
1951-08-19 Orn-Horten D 1-1 1390 1308 56.8% 21.0% 22.1% -1.1 5
1951-08-19 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1308 1390 22.1% 21.0% 56.8% +1.0 2
1951-08-19 Arstad D 1-1 1353 1290 54.7% 21.2% 24.1% -0.9 4
1951-08-19 @ Viking D 1-1 1290 1353 24.1% 21.2% 54.7% +0.9 1
1951-09-02 Brann L 0-6 1291 1294 46.5% 21.5% 32.0% -32.7 1
1951-09-02 @ Arstad W 6-0 1294 1291 32.0% 21.5% 46.5% +32.7 3
1951-09-02 Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1422 1353 55.5% 21.1% 23.4% +3.2 8
1951-09-02 @ Fredrikstad L 2-3 1353 1422 23.4% 21.1% 55.5% -3.2 1
1951-09-02 Kvik Trondheim L 2-6 1325 1317 48.1% 21.5% 30.4% -16.3 2
1951-09-02 @ Notodden W 6-2 1317 1325 30.4% 21.5% 48.1% +16.3 3
1951-09-02 Viking W 2-1 1361 1352 48.1% 21.5% 30.4% +4.2 4
1951-09-02 @ IF Odd L 1-2 1352 1361 30.4% 21.5% 48.1% -4.2 4
1951-09-02 Asker L 0-4 1309 1359 40.0% 21.6% 38.5% -19.7 2
1951-09-02 @ Orn-Horten W 4-0 1359 1309 38.5% 21.6% 40.0% +19.7 8
1951-09-02 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1335 1340 46.2% 21.6% 32.2% -0.4 4
1951-09-02 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1340 1335 32.2% 21.6% 46.2% +0.4 5
1951-09-02 Valerenga W 3-0 1351 1389 41.8% 21.6% 36.6% +14.1 5
1951-09-02 @ Skeid L 0-3 1389 1351 36.6% 21.6% 41.8% -14.1 5
1951-09-02 Sandefjord W 2-0 1336 1328 47.9% 21.5% 30.6% +8.4 6
1951-09-02 @ Strommen L 0-2 1328 1336 30.6% 21.5% 47.9% -8.4 3
1951-09-09 Valerenga W 5-1 1327 1374 40.4% 21.6% 38.0% +15.8 5
1951-09-09 @ Brann L 1-5 1374 1327 38.0% 21.6% 40.4% -15.8 5
1951-09-09 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1333 1340 45.9% 21.6% 32.6% +4.7 5
1951-09-09 @ Kvik Trondheim L 0-1 1340 1333 32.6% 21.6% 45.9% -4.7 5
1951-09-09 Sandefjord L 0-2 1349 1320 50.7% 21.4% 27.9% -12.7 1
1951-09-09 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-0 1320 1349 27.9% 21.4% 50.7% +12.7 5
1951-09-09 IF Odd L 1-2 1289 1366 36.2% 21.5% 42.2% -4.8 2
1951-09-09 @ Orn-Horten W 2-1 1366 1289 42.2% 21.5% 36.2% +4.8 6
1951-09-09 Notodden W 2-1 1335 1309 50.1% 21.4% 28.4% +4.0 6
1951-09-09 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1309 1335 28.4% 21.4% 50.1% -4.0 2
1951-09-09 Arstad L 3-4 1366 1258 59.5% 20.8% 19.7% -6.8 5
1951-09-09 @ Skeid W 4-3 1258 1366 19.7% 20.8% 59.5% +6.8 3
1951-09-09 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1344 1426 35.6% 21.5% 42.9% -8.2 6
1951-09-09 @ Strommen W 3-1 1426 1344 42.9% 21.5% 35.6% +8.2 10
1951-09-09 Asker W 3-2 1348 1379 42.7% 21.6% 35.7% +4.5 6
1951-09-09 @ Viking L 2-3 1379 1348 35.7% 21.6% 42.7% -4.5 8
1951-09-23 Orn-Horten D 3-3 1265 1284 44.3% 21.6% 34.1% -0.2 4
1951-09-23 @ Arstad D 3-3 1284 1265 34.1% 21.6% 44.3% +0.2 3
1951-09-23 Strommen L 0-5 1305 1336 42.7% 21.6% 35.7% -25.7 2
1951-09-23 @ Notodden W 5-0 1336 1305 35.7% 21.6% 42.7% +25.7 8
1951-09-23 Skeid W 3-1 1370 1359 48.4% 21.5% 30.1% +7.2 8
1951-09-23 @ IF Odd L 1-3 1359 1370 30.1% 21.5% 48.4% -7.2 5
1951-09-23 Kvik Trondheim L 0-1 1332 1338 46.2% 21.6% 32.2% -6.2 5
1951-09-23 @ Sandefjord W 1-0 1338 1332 32.2% 21.6% 46.2% +6.2 7
1951-10-07 Viking W 4-2 1343 1352 45.6% 21.6% 32.8% +6.9 7
1951-10-07 @ Brann L 2-4 1352 1343 32.8% 21.6% 45.6% -6.9 6
1951-10-07 Notodden W 4-1 1434 1280 63.9% 20.2% 15.8% +5.8 12
1951-10-07 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1280 1434 15.8% 20.2% 63.9% -5.8 2
1951-10-07 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1344 1337 47.8% 21.5% 30.7% -0.5 8
1951-10-07 @ Kvik Trondheim D 1-1 1337 1344 30.7% 21.5% 47.8% +0.5 2
1951-10-07 Arstad W 4-1 1378 1265 60.0% 20.7% 19.2% +6.9 10
1951-10-07 @ IF Odd L 1-4 1265 1378 19.2% 20.7% 60.0% -6.9 4
1951-10-07 Strommen W 3-2 1338 1362 43.8% 21.6% 34.6% +4.4 8
1951-10-07 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 2-3 1362 1338 34.6% 21.6% 43.8% -4.4 8
1951-10-07 Orn-Horten W 4-2 1352 1284 55.2% 21.2% 23.7% +5.2 7
1951-10-07 @ Skeid L 2-4 1284 1352 23.7% 21.2% 55.2% -5.2 3
1951-10-14 Brann L 0-1 1374 1350 50.0% 21.4% 28.5% -6.7 8
1951-10-14 @ Asker W 1-0 1350 1374 28.5% 21.4% 50.0% +6.7 9
1951-10-14 Viking L 1-2 1359 1346 48.6% 21.5% 29.9% -6.1 5
1951-10-14 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1346 1359 29.9% 21.5% 48.6% +6.1 8
1951-10-15 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-1 1440 1343 58.4% 20.9% 20.7% +5.2 14
1951-10-15 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1343 1440 20.7% 20.9% 58.4% -5.2 8
1951-10-15 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1336 1337 46.7% 21.5% 31.8% -6.3 5
1951-10-15 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1337 1336 31.8% 21.5% 46.7% +6.3 4
1952-05-04 IF Odd W 1-0 1258 1385 29.7% 21.3% 49.0% +6.5 6
1952-05-04 @ Arstad L 0-1 1385 1258 49.0% 21.3% 29.7% -6.5 10
1952-05-04 Kvik Trondheim W 3-1 1343 1343 46.9% 21.5% 31.6% +7.5 6
1952-05-04 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1343 1343 31.6% 21.5% 46.9% -7.5 8
1952-05-04 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1274 1445 24.6% 20.9% 54.5% -8.5 2
1952-05-04 @ Notodden W 4-1 1445 1274 54.5% 20.9% 24.6% +8.5 16
1952-05-04 Skeid L 1-6 1279 1357 36.1% 21.5% 42.4% -18.6 3
1952-05-04 @ Orn-Horten W 6-1 1357 1279 42.4% 21.5% 36.1% +18.6 9
1952-05-04 Sandefjord W 2-0 1329 1326 47.3% 21.5% 31.2% +8.5 7
1952-05-04 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1326 1329 31.2% 21.5% 47.3% -8.5 5
1952-05-04 Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1357 1338 49.4% 21.5% 29.1% -0.7 9
1952-05-04 @ Strommen D 0-0 1338 1357 29.1% 21.5% 49.4% +0.7 9
1952-05-04 Asker W 5-0 1352 1368 44.9% 21.6% 33.6% +21.2 7
1952-05-04 @ Valerenga L 0-5 1368 1352 33.6% 21.6% 44.9% -21.2 8
1952-05-04 Brann W 2-0 1352 1356 46.3% 21.6% 32.2% +8.8 10
1952-05-04 @ Viking L 0-2 1356 1352 32.2% 21.6% 46.3% -8.8 9
1952-05-11 Asker L 0-1 1348 1346 47.0% 21.5% 31.4% -6.3 9
1952-05-11 @ Brann W 1-0 1346 1348 31.4% 21.5% 47.0% +6.3 10
1952-05-11 Sandefjord W 2-1 1336 1318 49.2% 21.5% 29.3% +4.0 10
1952-05-11 @ Kvik Trondheim L 1-2 1318 1336 29.3% 21.5% 49.2% -4.1 5
1952-05-11 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1351 1338 48.6% 21.5% 29.9% +4.1 8
1952-05-11 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1338 1351 29.9% 21.5% 48.6% -4.1 7
1952-05-11 Arstad D 3-3 1261 1265 46.4% 21.6% 32.1% -0.2 4
1952-05-11 @ Orn-Horten D 3-3 1265 1261 32.1% 21.6% 46.4% +0.2 7
1952-05-11 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1338 1453 31.2% 21.3% 47.5% -12.4 9
1952-05-11 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 3-0 1453 1338 47.5% 21.3% 31.2% +12.4 18
1952-05-11 IF Odd L 0-2 1375 1378 46.5% 21.5% 31.9% -11.8 9
1952-05-11 @ Skeid W 2-0 1378 1375 31.9% 21.5% 46.5% +11.8 12
1952-05-11 Notodden D 0-0 1356 1265 57.8% 21.0% 21.2% -1.2 10
1952-05-11 @ Strommen D 0-0 1265 1356 21.2% 21.0% 57.8% +1.2 3
1952-05-11 Valerenga D 0-0 1360 1374 45.1% 21.6% 33.3% -0.4 11
1952-05-11 @ Viking D 0-0 1374 1360 33.3% 21.6% 45.1% +0.4 8
1952-05-14 Valerenga L 0-1 1353 1374 44.0% 21.6% 34.4% -6.0 10
1952-05-14 @ Asker W 1-0 1374 1353 34.4% 21.6% 44.0% +6.0 10
1952-05-18 Skeid W 1-0 1265 1364 33.3% 21.4% 45.3% +6.1 9
1952-05-18 @ Arstad L 0-1 1364 1265 45.3% 21.4% 33.3% -6.1 9
1952-05-18 Viking L 0-1 1347 1360 45.1% 21.6% 33.3% -6.1 10
1952-05-18 @ Asker W 1-0 1360 1347 33.3% 21.6% 45.1% +6.1 13
1952-05-18 Strommen W 4-2 1466 1355 59.8% 20.8% 19.4% +4.4 20
1952-05-18 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1355 1466 19.4% 20.8% 59.8% -4.4 10
1952-05-18 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1267 1326 38.7% 21.6% 39.8% +0.0 4
1952-05-18 @ Notodden D 1-1 1326 1267 39.8% 21.6% 38.7% -0.0 10
1952-05-18 Orn-Horten L 3-4 1390 1260 61.7% 20.5% 17.8% -7.0 12
1952-05-18 @ IF Odd W 4-3 1260 1390 17.8% 20.5% 61.7% +7.0 6
1952-05-18 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1314 1355 41.2% 21.6% 37.2% -0.1 6
1952-05-18 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1355 1314 37.2% 21.6% 41.2% +0.1 9
1952-05-18 Kvik Trondheim W 2-1 1334 1340 46.1% 21.6% 32.4% +4.4 9
1952-05-18 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1340 1334 32.4% 21.6% 46.1% -4.4 10
1952-05-18 Brann L 1-2 1380 1341 51.8% 21.4% 26.8% -6.5 10
1952-05-18 @ Valerenga W 2-1 1341 1380 26.8% 21.4% 51.8% +6.5 11
1952-05-21 Skeid D 1-1 1374 1357 49.0% 21.5% 29.5% -0.6 11
1952-05-21 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1357 1374 29.5% 21.5% 49.0% +0.6 10
1952-05-22 Orn-Horten W 6-0 1341 1267 55.9% 21.1% 23.0% +18.3 12
1952-05-22 @ Asker L 0-6 1267 1341 23.0% 21.1% 55.9% -18.3 6
1952-05-22 Arstad W 1-0 1348 1271 56.2% 21.1% 22.7% +3.5 13
1952-05-22 @ Brann L 0-1 1271 1348 22.7% 21.1% 56.2% -3.5 9
1952-05-22 Notodden W 4-0 1335 1267 55.4% 21.2% 23.5% +12.8 12
1952-05-22 @ Kvik Trondheim L 0-4 1267 1335 23.5% 21.2% 55.4% -12.8 4
1952-05-22 Fredrikstad D 2-2 1355 1470 31.2% 21.3% 47.5% +0.3 10
1952-05-22 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1470 1355 47.5% 21.3% 31.2% -0.4 21
1952-05-22 Strommen W 2-1 1314 1351 41.8% 21.6% 36.6% +4.8 8
1952-05-22 @ Sandefjord L 1-2 1351 1314 36.6% 21.6% 41.8% -4.8 10
1952-05-22 Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1338 1326 48.5% 21.5% 30.0% +4.1 11
1952-05-22 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1326 1338 30.0% 21.5% 48.5% -4.1 10
1952-05-22 IF Odd D 1-1 1366 1383 44.7% 21.6% 33.8% -0.3 14
1952-05-22 @ Viking D 1-1 1383 1366 33.8% 21.6% 44.7% +0.3 13
1952-05-25 Viking W 3-1 1268 1366 33.3% 21.4% 45.2% +10.0 11
1952-05-25 @ Arstad L 1-3 1366 1268 45.2% 21.4% 33.3% -10.0 14
1952-05-25 Kvik Trondheim W 3-2 1470 1348 60.9% 20.6% 18.5% +2.6 23
1952-05-25 @ Fredrikstad L 2-3 1348 1470 18.5% 20.6% 60.9% -2.6 12
1952-05-25 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1254 1356 32.9% 21.4% 45.7% -4.7 4
1952-05-25 @ Notodden W 1-0 1356 1254 45.7% 21.4% 32.9% +4.7 12
1952-05-25 Brann L 1-3 1383 1351 51.0% 21.4% 27.6% -11.0 13
1952-05-25 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1351 1383 27.6% 21.4% 51.0% +11.1 15
1952-05-25 Valerenga W 2-1 1249 1373 30.0% 21.3% 48.7% +6.1 8
1952-05-25 @ Orn-Horten L 1-2 1373 1249 48.7% 21.3% 30.0% -6.1 11
1952-05-25 Sandefjord L 1-2 1322 1318 47.3% 21.5% 31.1% -6.0 10
1952-05-25 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1318 1322 31.1% 21.5% 47.3% +6.0 10
1952-05-25 Asker D 2-2 1358 1359 46.8% 21.5% 31.7% -0.3 11
1952-05-25 @ Skeid D 2-2 1359 1358 31.7% 21.5% 46.8% +0.3 13
1952-05-25 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1346 1342 47.4% 21.5% 31.1% -6.0 10
1952-05-25 @ Strommen W 2-1 1342 1346 31.1% 21.5% 47.4% +6.0 13
1952-06-01 Arstad D 0-0 1359 1277 56.8% 21.0% 22.2% -1.2 14
1952-06-01 @ Asker D 0-0 1277 1359 22.2% 21.0% 56.8% +1.2 12
1952-06-01 Orn-Horten W 3-1 1362 1255 59.5% 20.8% 19.7% +5.0 17
1952-06-01 @ Brann L 1-3 1255 1362 19.7% 20.8% 59.5% -5.0 8
1952-06-01 Strommen L 1-2 1346 1340 47.6% 21.5% 30.9% -6.0 12
1952-06-01 @ Kvik Trondheim W 2-1 1340 1346 30.9% 21.5% 47.6% +6.0 12
1952-06-01 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1360 1316 52.5% 21.3% 26.2% -7.0 12
1952-06-01 @ Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1316 1360 26.2% 21.3% 52.5% +7.0 12
1952-06-01 Notodden W 2-1 1324 1249 56.1% 21.1% 22.8% +3.3 12
1952-06-01 @ Sandefjord L 1-2 1249 1324 22.8% 21.1% 56.1% -3.3 4
1952-06-01 Fredrikstad L 0-3 1348 1472 30.0% 21.3% 48.7% -12.0 13
1952-06-01 @ Sarpsborg W 3-0 1472 1348 48.7% 21.3% 30.0% +12.0 25
1952-06-01 IF Odd W 2-0 1367 1372 46.2% 21.6% 32.2% +8.8 13
1952-06-01 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1372 1367 32.2% 21.6% 46.2% -8.8 13
1952-06-01 Skeid L 0-3 1356 1358 46.6% 21.5% 31.8% -17.1 14
1952-06-01 @ Viking W 3-0 1358 1356 31.8% 21.5% 46.6% +17.2 13
1952-06-05 Sarpsborg L 1-3 1328 1336 45.7% 21.6% 32.7% -10.1 12
1952-06-05 @ Sandefjord W 3-1 1336 1328 32.7% 21.6% 45.7% +10.1 15
1952-06-08 Valerenga W 4-1 1279 1376 33.5% 21.4% 45.1% +14.0 14
1952-06-08 @ Arstad L 1-4 1376 1279 45.1% 21.4% 33.5% -14.0 13
1952-06-08 Sandefjord D 3-3 1484 1318 65.0% 20.0% 14.9% -1.0 26
1952-06-08 @ Fredrikstad D 3-3 1318 1484 14.9% 20.0% 65.0% +1.0 13
1952-06-08 Sarpsborg L 0-4 1246 1346 33.0% 21.4% 45.5% -16.9 4
1952-06-08 @ Notodden W 4-0 1346 1246 45.5% 21.4% 33.0% +16.9 17
1952-06-08 Asker W 6-2 1363 1358 47.6% 21.5% 30.9% +11.4 15
1952-06-08 @ IF Odd L 2-6 1358 1363 30.9% 21.5% 47.6% -11.4 14
1952-06-08 Viking D 1-1 1250 1339 34.6% 21.5% 43.9% +0.3 9
1952-06-08 @ Orn-Horten D 1-1 1339 1250 43.9% 21.5% 34.6% -0.3 15
1952-06-08 Kvik Trondheim W 4-0 1323 1340 44.6% 21.6% 33.8% +17.3 14
1952-06-08 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-4 1340 1323 33.8% 21.6% 44.6% -17.3 12
1952-06-08 Brann W 5-0 1375 1367 47.9% 21.5% 30.6% +19.7 15
1952-06-08 @ Skeid L 0-5 1367 1375 30.6% 21.5% 47.9% -19.6 17
1952-06-08 Lyn Oslo L 1-2 1346 1353 45.9% 21.6% 32.5% -5.8 12
1952-06-08 @ Strommen W 2-1 1353 1346 32.5% 21.6% 45.9% +5.8 14

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1952-06-22 Brann W 3-1 1483 1348 62.2% 20.5% 17.3% +4.4 1-0
1952-06-22 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1348 1483 17.3% 20.5% 62.2% -4.4 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1952-05-18 17.80% Orn-Horten 1260 4 @ IF Odd 1390 3
2 1951-09-09 19.74% Arstad 1258 4 @ Skeid 1366 3
3 1952-06-01 26.17% Sarpsborg 08 1316 1 @ Lyn Oslo 1360 0
4 1951-07-28 26.51% Strommen 1326 5 @ Lyn Oslo 1368 3
5 1952-05-18 26.82% Brann 1341 2 @ Valerenga 1380 1
6 1952-05-25 27.63% Brann 1351 3 @ IF Odd 1383 1
7 1951-09-09 27.88% Sandefjord 1320 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1349 0
8 1951-10-14 28.51% Brann 1350 1 @ Asker 1374 0
9 1952-05-04 29.73% @ Arstad 1258 1 IF Odd 1385 0
10 1951-10-14 29.91% Viking 1346 2 @ Valerenga 1359 1
11 1952-05-25 30.03% @ Orn-Horten 1249 2 Valerenga 1373 1
12 1951-09-02 30.44% Kvik Trondheim 1317 6 @ Notodden 1325 2
13 1952-06-01 30.85% Strommen 1340 2 @ Kvik Trondheim 1346 1
14 1952-05-25 31.10% Sarpsborg 1342 2 @ Strommen 1346 1
15 1952-05-25 31.13% Sandefjord 1318 2 @ Sarpsborg 08 1322 1
16 1952-05-11 31.42% Asker 1346 1 @ Brann 1348 0
17 1951-10-15 31.78% Lyn Oslo 1337 1 @ Sarpsborg 1336 0
18 1952-06-01 31.82% Skeid 1358 3 @ Viking 1356 0
19 1952-05-11 31.92% IF Odd 1378 2 @ Skeid 1375 0
20 1951-09-02 32.00% Brann 1294 6 @ Arstad 1291 0
21 1951-09-23 32.24% Kvik Trondheim 1338 1 @ Sandefjord 1332 0
22 1952-06-08 32.52% Lyn Oslo 1353 2 @ Strommen 1346 1
23 1952-06-05 32.71% Sarpsborg 1336 3 @ Sandefjord 1328 1
24 1952-05-18 33.26% @ Arstad 1265 1 Skeid 1364 0
25 1952-05-18 33.32% Viking 1360 1 @ Asker 1347 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-09-02 32.70 Brann 6 1294 32.00% @ Arstad 0 1291 46.46% 21.54%
2 1951-09-23 25.67 Strommen 5 1336 35.68% @ Notodden 0 1305 42.74% 21.59%
3 1951-07-29 25.32 @ Valerenga 7 1359 50.26% Arstad 0 1333 28.30% 21.43%
4 1952-05-04 21.18 @ Valerenga 5 1352 44.87% Asker 0 1368 33.56% 21.57%
5 1951-07-29 19.83 @ Viking 5 1333 47.53% Orn-Horten 0 1328 30.95% 21.52%
6 1951-09-02 19.73 Asker 4 1359 38.46% @ Orn-Horten 0 1309 39.96% 21.58%
7 1952-06-08 19.65 @ Skeid 5 1375 47.88% Brann 0 1367 30.61% 21.51%
8 1952-05-04 18.58 Skeid 6 1357 42.38% @ Orn-Horten 1 1279 36.10% 21.52%
9 1952-05-22 18.35 @ Asker 6 1341 55.85% Orn-Horten 0 1267 23.03% 21.12%
10 1951-08-05 17.39 Asker 5 1337 35.56% @ Arstad 1 1308 42.85% 21.59%
11 1952-06-08 17.27 @ Sarpsborg 08 4 1323 44.64% Kvik Trondheim 0 1340 33.79% 21.57%
12 1952-06-01 17.16 Skeid 3 1358 31.82% @ Viking 0 1356 46.64% 21.54%
13 1952-06-08 16.94 Sarpsborg 4 1346 45.54% @ Notodden 0 1246 33.03% 21.43%
14 1951-07-29 16.44 Skeid 3 1340 34.07% @ Brann 0 1321 44.35% 21.57%
15 1951-09-02 16.27 Kvik Trondheim 6 1317 30.44% @ Notodden 2 1325 48.06% 21.51%
16 1951-09-09 15.82 @ Brann 5 1327 40.37% Valerenga 1 1374 38.04% 21.58%
17 1951-09-02 14.08 @ Skeid 3 1351 41.83% Valerenga 0 1389 36.58% 21.59%
18 1952-06-08 14.04 @ Arstad 4 1279 33.49% Valerenga 1 1376 45.06% 21.45%
19 1952-05-22 12.76 @ Kvik Trondheim 4 1335 55.35% Notodden 0 1267 23.50% 21.16%
20 1951-09-09 12.71 Sandefjord 2 1320 27.88% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1349 50.70% 21.41%
21 1952-05-11 12.36 Fredrikstad 3 1453 47.49% @ Sarpsborg 08 0 1338 31.16% 21.35%
22 1952-06-01 11.98 Fredrikstad 3 1472 48.68% @ Sarpsborg 0 1348 30.02% 21.29%
23 1952-05-11 11.79 IF Odd 2 1378 31.92% @ Skeid 0 1375 46.54% 21.54%
24 1951-08-19 11.57 Fredrikstad 4 1411 43.08% @ Kvik Trondheim 1 1328 35.41% 21.51%
25 1952-06-08 11.37 @ IF Odd 6 1363 47.56% Asker 2 1358 30.92% 21.52%