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1950-51 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valerenga

4.39 points above expected

19 points · 14.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kristiansund FK

6.78 points below expected

4 points · 10.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 10 3 1 23 44 14 +30 19.36 +3.64
2 IF Odd 14 7 6 1 20 31 13 +18 16.63 +3.37
3 Lyn Oslo 14 6 7 1 19 41 18 +23 16.63 +2.37
4 Valerenga 14 7 5 2 19 35 21 +14 14.61 +4.39
5 Sarpsborg 08 14 6 4 4 16 19 16 +3 14.64 +1.36
6 Skeid 14 6 4 4 16 29 28 +1 14.27 +1.73
7 Sandefjord 14 5 4 5 14 24 23 +1 14.34 -0.34
8 Viking 14 5 4 5 14 19 18 +1 15.16 -1.16
9 Sarpsborg 14 4 5 5 13 20 21 -1 14.23 -1.23
10 Orn-Horten 14 5 3 6 13 23 25 -2 12.87 +0.13
11 Brann 14 5 3 6 13 24 30 -6 13.02 -0.02
12 Strommen 14 5 3 6 13 22 29 -7 11.92 +1.08
13 Selbak 14 3 5 6 11 22 25 -3 11.94 -0.94
14 Lisleby 14 3 3 8 9 21 35 -14 12.26 -3.26
15 Fram Larvik 14 2 3 9 7 14 33 -19 11.33 -4.33
16 Kristiansund FK 14 1 2 11 4 16 55 -39 10.78 -6.78

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fredrikstad 7
IF Odd 3

Leg 1: IF Odd 1-3 Fredrikstad

Leg 2: Fredrikstad 4-2 IF Odd

Sim: 18.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1621 23 19.36 +3.64 93.5% 9 15 17 19 21 24 28
Lyn Oslo 1481 19 16.63 +2.37 83.0% 5 12 15 17 19 21 26
IF Odd 1455 20 16.63 +3.37 90.5% 5 12 15 17 19 21 27
Valerenga 1449 19 14.61 +4.39 95.2% 3 10 13 15 17 19 26
Skeid 1372 16 14.27 +1.73 77.3% 3 9 12 14 16 19 24
Sarpsborg 08 1349 16 14.64 +1.36 72.7% 3 10 13 15 17 20 26
Viking 1343 14 15.16 -1.16 40.9% 5 10 13 15 17 20 25
Sarpsborg 1339 13 14.23 -1.23 40.4% 4 9 12 14 16 19 25
Sandefjord 1325 14 14.34 -0.34 52.1% 3 9 12 14 16 19 24
Orn-Horten 1324 13 12.87 +0.13 58.4% 2 8 11 13 15 18 23
Strommen 1318 13 11.92 +1.08 70.5% 2 7 10 12 14 17 23
Selbak 1308 11 11.94 -0.94 44.3% 3 7 10 12 14 17 22
Brann 1296 13 13.02 -0.02 56.2% 3 8 11 13 15 18 24
Lisleby 1248 9 12.26 -3.26 17.4% 2 7 10 12 14 17 24
Fram Larvik 1181 7 11.33 -4.33 9.8% 1 7 9 11 13 16 22
Kristiansund FK 1102 4 10.78 -6.78 1.4% 2 6 9 11 13 16 23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FL FRE IO KF LIS LO ORN SAN SAR S0 SEL SKE STR VAL VIK
Brann —
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
1.27
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.52
1-1-0
2.11
Fram Larvik
1-0-1
2.36
 —
0-1-1
1.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.79
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.59
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
2.18
Fredrikstad
1-0-1
4.19
1-1-0
3.80
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.27
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.71
1-1-0
3.82
2-0-0
3.60
IF Odd
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
3.70
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.79
2-0-0
3.22
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
3.49
1-1-0
3.77
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Kristiansund FK
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.72
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.94
0-0-2
2.20
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.71
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
2.80
0-1-1
1.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lisleby
0-1-1
2.48
1-1-0
2.97
0-0-2
1.19
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.24
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.03
0-0-2
2.29
1-0-1
2.08
Lyn Oslo
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.62
2-0-0
3.48
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.56
1-0-1
3.25
1-1-0
3.72
1-1-0
3.12
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Orn-Horten
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.19
2-0-0
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.22
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.10
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
3.62
0-0-2
1.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.75
Sarpsborg
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.55
2-0-0
3.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
1.86
1-1-0
2.88
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
2.65
1-1-0
2.86
0-0-2
2.78
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg 08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.92
2-0-0
3.40
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.16
0-1-1
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.76
 —
1-1-0
3.18
0-0-2
3.12
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Selbak
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.65
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.70
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.54
0-1-1
2.22
 —
1-1-0
2.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Skeid
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.38
1-1-0
3.67
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.29
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.63
2-0-0
2.29
0-1-1
3.05
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Strommen
1-0-1
2.47
2-0-0
2.82
0-1-1
1.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.37
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.26
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
2.04
0-0-2
2.14
Valerenga
2-0-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.52
0-1-1
1.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.12
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.37
 —
0-2-0
2.37
Viking
0-1-1
3.30
2-0-0
3.23
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.28
0-2-0
3.04
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +4.9
Allowed 0.73 -4.1
Differential 0.94 +2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.93%3.12%4.46%2.68%2.23%2.23%23.66%
13.12%11.61%4.91%5.36%2.68%1.34%29.02%
24.46%4.91%4.46%2.68%0.45%0.89%17.86%
32.68%5.36%2.68%3.57%0.89%1.79%16.96%
42.23%2.68%0.45%0.89%——6.25%
5+2.23%1.34%0.89%1.79%——6.25%
Total23.66%29.02%17.86%16.96%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 1.80 +0.00
SD 1.78 1.78 2.59
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 14 14 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%——7.14%—21.43%
1—7.14%7.14%——7.14%21.43%
2—21.43%—7.14%——28.57%
3—7.14%—7.14%7.14%—21.43%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%42.86%7.14%21.43%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 2.14 -0.43
SD 1.27 1.51 1.79
CV 0.74 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%35.71%
1—14.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
3———————
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%21.43%28.57%21.43%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.36 -1.36
SD 1.11 1.39 1.95
CV 1.11 0.59 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—14.29%————14.29%
27.14%14.29%————21.43%
37.14%——7.14%7.14%—21.43%
47.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
5+21.43%—————21.43%
Total42.86%35.71%7.14%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.14 1.00 +2.14
SD 1.41 1.24 2.07
CV 0.45 1.24 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—————21.43%
1—14.29%————14.29%
214.29%——7.14%——21.43%
314.29%—7.14%7.14%——28.57%
4———————
5+—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
Total50.00%21.43%14.29%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 0.93 +1.29
SD 1.81 1.14 1.73
CV 0.82 1.23 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%42.86%
1—7.14%—14.29%——21.43%
2———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
3—7.14%—7.14%—7.14%21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total—21.43%14.29%35.71%7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 3.93 -2.79
SD 1.23 3.56 3.47
CV 1.08 0.91 —
Max 3 14 +2
Min 0 1 -12

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%——7.14%21.43%
1—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
27.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
3———7.14%—7.14%14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%28.57%28.57%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.50 -1.00
SD 1.02 2.07 2.35
CV 0.68 0.83 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—————14.29%
1—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
3—14.29%—7.14%——21.43%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
Total21.43%42.86%21.43%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.93 1.29 +1.64
SD 3.58 0.99 3.25
CV 1.22 0.77 —
Max 14 3 +12
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%7.14%7.14%—28.57%
1—21.43%—14.29%——35.71%
2———————
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total7.14%42.86%21.43%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.79 -0.14
SD 1.65 1.12 2.48
CV 1.00 0.63 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
17.14%14.29%14.29%———35.71%
2——7.14%———7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
Total14.29%35.71%35.71%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.64 +0.07
SD 1.82 1.28 2.20
CV 1.06 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
1—21.43%7.14%7.14%—7.14%42.86%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%14.29%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.50 -0.07
SD 1.22 1.65 2.37
CV 0.86 1.10 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—7.14%7.14%——35.71%
114.29%7.14%—14.29%——35.71%
2—14.29%————14.29%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%21.43%14.29%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.14 +0.21
SD 1.86 1.23 2.39
CV 1.37 1.08 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
028.57%—————28.57%
1—7.14%7.14%14.29%14.29%—42.86%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4———————
5+———7.14%——7.14%
Total28.57%21.43%7.14%28.57%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.79 -0.21
SD 2.10 1.53 2.15
CV 1.34 0.86 —
Max 8 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
1—14.29%—7.14%—7.14%28.57%
27.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
3—21.43%—7.14%—7.14%35.71%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%42.86%—14.29%—21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 2.00 +0.07
SD 1.14 2.04 2.34
CV 0.55 1.02 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%——7.14%7.14%21.43%
17.14%7.14%7.14%—14.29%—35.71%
2——14.29%———14.29%
37.14%—14.29%———21.43%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%14.29%35.71%—21.43%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 2.07 -0.50
SD 1.28 1.64 2.56
CV 0.82 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
114.29%7.14%————21.43%
2—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
3—7.14%—7.14%—7.14%21.43%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+7.14%——7.14%——14.29%
Total28.57%28.57%21.43%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.50 +1.00
SD 2.14 1.45 2.45
CV 0.86 0.97 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—7.14%7.14%——35.71%
17.14%——7.14%7.14%—21.43%
214.29%—7.14%7.14%——28.57%
3———————
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+———————
Total50.00%7.14%14.29%21.43%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.29 +0.07
SD 1.39 1.49 2.16
CV 1.03 1.16 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 19 14.61 +4.39
2 Fredrikstad 23 19.36 +3.64
3 IF Odd 20 16.63 +3.37
4 Lyn Oslo 19 16.63 +2.37
5 Skeid 16 14.27 +1.73

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kristiansund FK 4 10.78 -6.78
2 Fram Larvik 7 11.33 -4.33
3 Lisleby 9 12.26 -3.26
4 Sarpsborg 13 14.23 -1.23
5 Viking 14 15.16 -1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strommen 4 Sep 17 – May 13 1 in 121
2 Fredrikstad 5 Aug 6 – Sep 17 1 in 32
3 Brann 3 Aug 20 – Sep 10 1 in 25
4 Lyn Oslo 3 Aug 6 – Aug 20 1 in 23
5 IF Odd 3 Aug 13 – Sep 3 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Larvik 4 Sep 3 – Oct 15 1 in 73
2 Kristiansund FK 6 Oct 22 – Jun 17 1 in 34
3 Viking 3 Sep 10 – Oct 1 1 in 25
4 Strommen 4 Aug 6 – Sep 3 1 in 20
5 Sandefjord 2 Aug 20 – Sep 3 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Strommen 7 Sep 10 – May 27 1 in 56
2 Valerenga 10 Sep 10 – Jun 17 1 in 40
3 IF Odd 10 Aug 6 – May 6 1 in 23
4 Fram Larvik 3 Oct 22 – May 13 1 in 13
5 Lyn Oslo 9 Sep 17 – Jun 17 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kristiansund FK 13 Aug 13 – Jun 17 1 in 30
2 Viking 7 Sep 10 – May 27 1 in 18
3 Lisleby 5 Sep 17 – Oct 22 1 in 11
4 Sandefjord 6 May 3 – Jun 17 1 in 10
5 Lyn Oslo 4 Sep 3 – Oct 15 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad69.91%16.76%7.26%3.37%1.62%0.79%0.22%0.07%
IF Odd31.72%23.96%16.47%11.31%7.73%4.69%2.96%1.16%
Lyn Oslo33.75%21.93%16.05%11.34%8.05%4.97%2.61%1.30%
Valerenga7.79%21.49%19.70%16.42%13.35%9.86%6.97%4.42%
Sarpsborg 0810.59%15.32%16.79%16.22%14.46%12.12%9.32%5.18%
Skeid8.85%12.69%15.07%16.66%15.16%14.24%10.85%6.48%
Sandefjord6.21%16.74%18.20%17.82%14.71%11.70%9.13%5.49%
Viking9.86%22.26%20.47%16.73%12.22%8.83%6.20%3.43%
Sarpsborg8.50%12.63%14.56%15.80%15.86%14.47%11.29%6.89%
Orn-Horten3.41%7.13%10.35%13.42%15.78%18.01%18.23%13.67%
Brann2.64%9.34%11.73%14.85%16.81%16.24%15.86%12.53%
Strommen1.48%4.89%8.05%11.17%14.44%17.78%20.48%21.71%
Selbak2.20%4.49%7.42%9.70%14.00%17.88%22.03%22.28%
Lisleby1.43%5.40%8.75%11.68%14.58%18.63%19.46%20.07%
Fram Larvik0.68%3.12%5.84%7.96%12.27%16.17%21.68%32.28%
Kristiansund FK0.98%1.85%3.29%5.55%8.96%13.62%22.71%43.04%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.71%
Slight Edge
41.07%28.57%30.36%
Elo Value
Home Edge
105 Elo
0.010 goals per Elo point
037.37300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.41 goals
Neutral
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.3
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
70%
Fredrikstad, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.38 * Some Luck: 2.38 to 3.57 * Lucky: 3.57 to 4.76 * Wild Swing: 4.76 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.66 * Close: 2.66 to 3.99 * Off: 3.99 to 5.32 * Way Off: 5.32 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.90 points
Some Luck
02.987
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.94
Pinpoint
03.328
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
95.22%
Valerenga
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.44%
Kristiansund FK
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.31
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
62%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
94%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Very Frequent
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Very Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.97
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.28
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.53
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.30
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.064
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
IF Odd — —
Lyn Oslo 62.34% 3.91%
Viking 80.51% 9.63%
Valerenga 80.82% 11.39%
Sarpsborg 08 74.91% 14.50%
Sandefjord 79.17% 14.62%
Skeid 73.82% 17.33%
Sarpsborg 73.32% 18.18%
Brann 68.97% 28.39%
Orn-Horten 64.69% 31.90%
Lisleby 59.04% 39.53%
Strommen 56.33% 42.19%
Selbak 53.49% 44.31%
Fram Larvik 45.36% 53.96%
Kristiansund FK 33.27% 65.75%
Loser →
↓ Winner
BrannFram LarvikFredrikstadIF OddLislebyLyn OsloOrn-HortenSandefjordSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SelbakSkeidStrommenValerengaViking
Brann0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Fram Larvik0.0%2.00%
Fredrikstad72.0%25.00%76.5%17.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%6.00%71.4%7.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%
IF Odd28.0%25.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%
Lisleby0.0%1.00%
Lyn Oslo100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%23.5%17.00%75.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%
Orn-Horten0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Sandefjord0.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg100.0%1.00%0.0%6.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%
Sarpsborg 08100.0%1.00%28.6%7.00%50.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Selbak0.0%1.00%
Skeid50.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%
Strommen0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Valerenga100.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%
Viking50.0%4.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 66.95%
IF Odd 33.05%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadIF Odd
Fredrikstad67.0%100.00%
IF Odd33.1%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1950-08-06 Lisleby D 3-3 1319 1338 40.8% 29.8% 29.4% -0.5 1
1950-08-06 @ Brann D 3-3 1338 1319 29.4% 29.8% 40.8% +0.5 1
1950-08-06 Strommen W 5-0 1386 1331 49.9% 29.4% 20.8% +40.7 2
1950-08-06 @ Fredrikstad L 0-5 1331 1386 20.8% 29.4% 49.9% -40.7 0
1950-08-06 Selbak W 3-1 1338 1327 44.6% 29.7% 25.7% +17.7 2
1950-08-06 @ Kristiansund FK L 1-3 1327 1338 25.7% 29.7% 44.6% -17.7 0
1950-08-06 Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1350 1344 44.1% 29.7% 26.2% -26.4 0
1950-08-06 @ Orn-Horten W 3-1 1344 1350 26.2% 29.7% 44.1% +26.4 2
1950-08-06 Valerenga W 5-3 1329 1337 42.3% 29.7% 27.9% +15.9 2
1950-08-06 @ Sandefjord L 3-5 1337 1329 27.9% 29.7% 42.3% -15.9 0
1950-08-06 Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1356 1366 42.0% 29.7% 28.2% -1.1 1
1950-08-06 @ Sarpsborg D 0-0 1366 1356 28.2% 29.7% 42.0% +1.1 1
1950-08-06 IF Odd D 1-1 1339 1338 43.5% 29.7% 26.8% -1.2 1
1950-08-06 @ Skeid D 1-1 1338 1339 26.8% 29.7% 43.5% +1.2 1
1950-08-06 Fram Larvik W 4-1 1361 1351 44.6% 29.7% 25.8% +25.1 2
1950-08-06 @ Viking L 1-4 1351 1361 25.8% 29.7% 44.6% -25.1 0
1950-08-13 Fredrikstad L 0-5 1326 1427 29.5% 29.6% 40.9% -52.9 0
1950-08-13 @ Fram Larvik W 5-0 1427 1326 40.9% 29.6% 29.5% +52.9 4
1950-08-13 Viking L 0-2 1338 1386 36.9% 29.8% 33.4% -26.5 1
1950-08-13 @ Lisleby W 2-0 1386 1338 33.4% 29.8% 36.9% +26.5 4
1950-08-13 Kristiansund FK W 3-1 1370 1356 45.1% 29.6% 25.2% +17.5 4
1950-08-13 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1356 1370 25.2% 29.6% 45.1% -17.5 2
1950-08-13 Sarpsborg W 6-1 1339 1355 41.2% 29.8% 29.0% +43.3 3
1950-08-13 @ IF Odd L 1-6 1355 1339 29.0% 29.8% 41.2% -43.3 1
1950-08-13 Orn-Horten D 1-1 1367 1324 48.5% 29.5% 22.0% -2.0 2
1950-08-13 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1324 1367 22.0% 29.5% 48.5% +2.0 1
1950-08-13 Skeid W 3-1 1310 1338 39.6% 29.8% 30.7% +20.2 2
1950-08-13 @ Selbak L 1-3 1338 1310 30.7% 29.8% 39.6% -20.2 1
1950-08-13 Sandefjord L 1-4 1290 1345 35.9% 29.8% 34.4% -31.9 0
1950-08-13 @ Strommen W 4-1 1345 1290 34.4% 29.8% 35.9% +31.9 4
1950-08-13 Brann W 1-0 1321 1318 43.6% 29.7% 26.7% +11.2 2
1950-08-13 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1318 1321 26.7% 29.7% 43.6% -11.2 1
1950-08-20 Strommen W 2-1 1307 1258 49.1% 29.4% 21.4% +8.9 3
1950-08-20 @ Brann L 1-2 1258 1307 21.4% 29.4% 49.1% -8.9 0
1950-08-20 Lisleby W 4-2 1480 1312 60.1% 28.1% 11.8% +8.4 6
1950-08-20 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1312 1480 11.8% 28.1% 60.1% -8.4 1
1950-08-20 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1338 1365 39.8% 29.8% 30.5% -14.9 2
1950-08-20 @ Kristiansund FK W 1-0 1365 1338 30.5% 29.8% 39.8% +14.9 4
1950-08-20 IF Odd L 0-2 1326 1382 35.7% 29.8% 34.6% -25.9 1
1950-08-20 @ Orn-Horten W 2-0 1382 1326 34.6% 29.8% 35.7% +25.9 5
1950-08-20 Fram Larvik L 0-2 1377 1273 54.8% 28.9% 16.3% -36.9 4
1950-08-20 @ Sandefjord W 2-0 1273 1377 16.3% 28.9% 54.8% +36.9 2
1950-08-20 Selbak W 3-1 1312 1330 40.9% 29.8% 29.3% +19.5 3
1950-08-20 @ Sarpsborg L 1-3 1330 1312 29.3% 29.8% 40.9% -19.5 2
1950-08-20 Lyn Oslo L 3-6 1318 1388 33.7% 29.7% 36.5% -24.5 1
1950-08-20 @ Skeid W 6-3 1388 1318 36.5% 29.7% 33.7% +24.5 6
1950-08-20 Valerenga D 0-0 1413 1332 52.5% 29.2% 18.3% -3.0 5
1950-08-20 @ Viking D 0-0 1332 1413 18.3% 29.2% 52.5% +3.0 3
1950-09-03 Brann L 1-2 1310 1316 42.5% 29.7% 27.8% -14.8 2
1950-09-03 @ Fram Larvik W 2-1 1316 1310 27.8% 29.7% 42.5% +14.8 5
1950-09-03 Sandefjord W 2-1 1303 1340 38.4% 29.8% 31.8% +12.0 3
1950-09-03 @ Lisleby L 1-2 1340 1303 31.8% 29.8% 38.4% -12.0 4
1950-09-03 Sarpsborg D 2-2 1412 1331 52.5% 29.2% 18.3% -2.0 7
1950-09-03 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1331 1412 18.3% 29.2% 52.5% +2.0 4
1950-09-03 Kristiansund FK W 3-0 1408 1323 52.9% 29.1% 17.9% +22.5 7
1950-09-03 @ IF Odd L 0-3 1323 1408 17.9% 29.1% 52.9% -22.5 2
1950-09-03 Selbak W 4-1 1300 1310 42.0% 29.7% 28.3% +26.9 3
1950-09-03 @ Orn-Horten L 1-4 1310 1300 28.3% 29.7% 42.0% -26.9 2
1950-09-03 Skeid L 1-3 1380 1293 53.1% 29.1% 17.8% -31.1 4
1950-09-03 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 3-1 1293 1380 17.8% 29.1% 53.1% +31.0 3
1950-09-03 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1335 1488 23.3% 29.2% 47.4% -18.9 3
1950-09-03 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1488 1335 47.4% 29.2% 23.3% +18.9 8
1950-09-03 Strommen W 4-0 1410 1249 59.5% 28.2% 12.3% +21.3 7
1950-09-03 @ Viking L 0-4 1249 1410 12.3% 28.2% 59.5% -21.3 0
1950-09-10 Viking W 3-1 1331 1431 29.7% 29.6% 40.7% +24.7 7
1950-09-10 @ Brann L 1-3 1431 1331 40.7% 29.6% 29.7% -24.7 7
1950-09-10 Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1349 1410 34.9% 29.8% 35.3% +12.9 6
1950-09-10 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1410 1349 35.3% 29.8% 34.9% -12.9 7
1950-09-10 IF Odd D 0-0 1283 1431 23.9% 29.3% 46.8% +1.9 3
1950-09-10 @ Selbak D 0-0 1431 1283 46.8% 29.3% 23.9% -1.9 8
1950-09-10 Kristiansund FK D 1-1 1324 1301 46.2% 29.6% 24.2% -1.7 4
1950-09-10 @ Skeid D 1-1 1301 1324 24.2% 29.6% 46.2% +1.7 3
1950-09-10 Valerenga D 2-2 1228 1316 31.2% 29.7% 39.1% +0.4 1
1950-09-10 @ Strommen D 2-2 1316 1228 39.1% 29.7% 31.2% -0.4 4
1950-09-17 Viking W 3-0 1507 1406 54.5% 29.0% 16.6% +21.1 10
1950-09-17 @ Fredrikstad L 0-3 1406 1507 16.6% 29.0% 54.5% -21.1 7
1950-09-17 Orn-Horten L 2-3 1302 1327 40.1% 29.8% 30.2% -13.4 3
1950-09-17 @ Kristiansund FK W 3-2 1327 1302 30.2% 29.8% 40.1% +13.4 5
1950-09-17 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1429 1397 47.1% 29.6% 23.3% -1.8 9
1950-09-17 @ IF Odd D 1-1 1397 1429 23.3% 29.6% 47.1% +1.8 8
1950-09-17 Brann W 5-1 1328 1356 39.7% 29.8% 30.5% +36.7 6
1950-09-17 @ Sandefjord L 1-5 1356 1328 30.5% 29.8% 39.7% -36.7 7
1950-09-17 Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1285 1362 32.9% 29.7% 37.4% -12.2 3
1950-09-17 @ Selbak W 2-1 1362 1285 37.4% 29.7% 32.9% +12.2 8
1950-09-17 Sarpsborg W 3-1 1323 1333 41.9% 29.7% 28.3% +19.0 6
1950-09-17 @ Skeid L 1-3 1333 1323 28.3% 29.7% 41.9% -19.0 4
1950-09-17 Lisleby W 1-0 1229 1315 31.4% 29.7% 38.9% +14.6 3
1950-09-17 @ Strommen L 0-1 1315 1229 38.9% 29.7% 31.4% -14.6 3
1950-09-17 Fram Larvik W 3-1 1316 1295 45.9% 29.6% 24.5% +17.1 6
1950-09-17 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1295 1316 24.5% 29.6% 45.9% -17.1 2
1950-10-01 Valerenga L 3-5 1301 1333 39.0% 29.8% 31.2% -20.3 3
1950-10-01 @ Lisleby W 5-3 1333 1301 31.2% 29.8% 39.0% +20.3 8
1950-10-01 Sandefjord L 2-3 1385 1365 45.8% 29.6% 24.6% -14.9 7
1950-10-01 @ Viking W 3-2 1365 1385 24.6% 29.6% 45.8% +14.9 8
1950-10-08 Strommen L 0-3 1278 1243 47.5% 29.5% 22.9% -47.2 2
1950-10-08 @ Fram Larvik W 3-0 1243 1278 22.9% 29.5% 47.5% +47.2 5
1950-10-08 Orn-Horten W 2-0 1427 1340 53.1% 29.1% 17.8% +15.4 11
1950-10-08 @ IF Odd L 0-2 1340 1427 17.8% 29.1% 53.1% -15.4 5
1950-10-08 Kristiansund FK W 8-3 1273 1289 41.2% 29.8% 29.0% +32.8 5
1950-10-08 @ Selbak L 3-8 1289 1273 29.0% 29.8% 41.2% -32.8 3
1950-10-08 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-1 1342 1374 39.1% 29.8% 31.2% +20.4 8
1950-10-08 @ Skeid L 1-3 1374 1342 31.2% 29.8% 39.1% -20.4 8
1950-10-08 Lisleby D 1-1 1380 1280 54.3% 29.0% 16.7% -3.0 9
1950-10-08 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1280 1380 16.7% 29.0% 54.3% +3.0 4
1950-10-08 Viking D 2-2 1353 1370 41.1% 29.8% 29.2% -0.7 9
1950-10-08 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1370 1353 29.2% 29.8% 41.1% +0.6 8
1950-10-15 IF Odd D 3-3 1256 1442 19.9% 28.9% 51.2% +1.5 4
1950-10-15 @ Kristiansund FK D 3-3 1442 1256 51.2% 28.9% 19.9% -1.5 12
1950-10-15 Skeid D 3-3 1399 1362 47.8% 29.5% 22.7% -1.2 9
1950-10-15 @ Lyn Oslo D 3-3 1362 1399 22.7% 29.5% 47.8% +1.2 9
1950-10-15 Sarpsborg L 0-3 1325 1314 44.6% 29.7% 25.7% -44.8 5
1950-10-15 @ Orn-Horten W 3-0 1314 1325 25.7% 29.7% 44.6% +44.7 6
1950-10-15 Selbak D 0-0 1353 1306 49.0% 29.5% 21.6% -2.4 9
1950-10-15 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1306 1353 21.6% 29.5% 49.0% +2.4 6
1950-10-15 Sandefjord L 0-1 1231 1377 24.1% 29.3% 46.6% -10.3 2
1950-10-15 @ Fram Larvik W 1-0 1377 1231 46.6% 29.3% 24.1% +10.3 11
1950-10-15 Valerenga D 3-3 1528 1353 60.7% 27.9% 11.3% -2.6 11
1950-10-15 @ Fredrikstad D 3-3 1353 1528 11.3% 27.9% 60.7% +2.6 10
1950-10-15 Strommen L 2-3 1283 1290 42.4% 29.7% 27.9% -14.0 4
1950-10-15 @ Lisleby W 3-2 1290 1283 27.9% 29.7% 42.4% +14.0 7
1950-10-15 Brann D 0-0 1371 1319 49.5% 29.4% 21.1% -2.5 9
1950-10-15 @ Viking D 0-0 1319 1371 21.1% 29.4% 49.5% +2.5 8
1950-10-22 Fram Larvik D 2-2 1269 1220 49.1% 29.4% 21.4% -1.6 5
1950-10-22 @ Lisleby D 2-2 1220 1269 21.4% 29.4% 49.1% +1.6 3
1950-10-22 Selbak W 4-1 1398 1308 53.4% 29.1% 17.5% +18.6 11
1950-10-22 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-4 1308 1398 17.5% 29.1% 53.4% -18.6 6
1950-10-22 Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1441 1351 53.4% 29.1% 17.5% -3.2 13
1950-10-22 @ IF Odd D 0-0 1351 1441 17.5% 29.1% 53.4% +3.2 10
1950-10-22 Skeid W 5-1 1280 1363 31.9% 29.7% 38.4% +43.2 7
1950-10-22 @ Orn-Horten L 1-5 1363 1280 38.4% 29.7% 31.9% -43.2 9
1950-10-22 Kristiansund FK W 4-0 1359 1258 54.5% 29.0% 16.6% +27.5 8
1950-10-22 @ Sarpsborg L 0-4 1258 1359 16.6% 29.0% 54.5% -27.5 4
1950-10-29 Fram Larvik L 3-4 1321 1222 54.3% 29.0% 16.7% -17.0 8
1950-10-29 @ Brann W 4-3 1222 1321 16.7% 29.0% 54.3% +17.0 5
1951-04-29 Fredrikstad W 4-3 1304 1526 16.8% 28.5% 54.8% +17.0 10
1951-04-29 @ Brann L 3-4 1526 1304 54.8% 28.5% 16.8% -17.0 11
1951-05-03 Sandefjord W 2-1 1509 1387 56.3% 28.7% 14.9% +6.7 13
1951-05-03 @ Fredrikstad L 1-2 1387 1509 14.9% 28.7% 56.3% -6.7 11
1951-05-03 Orn-Horten D 1-1 1386 1323 50.6% 29.3% 20.0% -2.4 9
1951-05-03 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1323 1386 20.0% 29.3% 50.6% +2.4 8
1951-05-06 Lyn Oslo L 2-14 1230 1417 19.9% 28.9% 51.2% -59.3 4
1951-05-06 @ Kristiansund FK W 14-2 1417 1230 51.2% 28.9% 19.9% +59.3 13
1951-05-06 IF Odd L 0-3 1384 1438 36.0% 29.8% 34.2% -37.9 9
1951-05-06 @ Sarpsborg W 3-0 1438 1384 34.2% 29.8% 36.0% +37.9 15
1951-05-13 Fram Larvik D 1-1 1516 1239 67.1% 26.0% 6.9% -5.2 14
1951-05-13 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1239 1516 6.9% 26.0% 67.1% +5.2 6
1951-05-13 Brann W 3-2 1304 1321 41.1% 29.8% 29.2% +10.7 9
1951-05-13 @ Strommen L 2-3 1321 1304 29.2% 29.8% 41.1% -10.7 10
1951-05-20 Valerenga L 1-2 1311 1355 37.4% 29.8% 32.9% -13.4 10
1951-05-20 @ Brann W 2-1 1355 1311 32.9% 29.8% 37.4% +13.4 12
1951-05-20 Lisleby L 1-2 1244 1268 40.2% 29.8% 30.0% -14.2 6
1951-05-20 @ Fram Larvik W 2-1 1268 1244 30.0% 29.8% 40.2% +14.2 7
1951-05-20 Sarpsborg L 0-2 1171 1346 21.0% 29.0% 50.0% -17.4 4
1951-05-20 @ Kristiansund FK W 2-0 1346 1171 50.0% 29.0% 21.0% +17.5 11
1951-05-20 Strommen D 2-2 1381 1315 50.9% 29.3% 19.8% -1.8 12
1951-05-20 @ Sandefjord D 2-2 1315 1381 19.8% 29.3% 50.9% +1.8 10
1951-05-20 IF Odd W 3-2 1354 1476 27.0% 29.5% 43.5% +14.3 12
1951-05-20 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 2-3 1476 1354 43.5% 29.5% 27.0% -14.3 15
1951-05-20 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1290 1476 19.9% 28.9% 51.2% +2.7 7
1951-05-20 @ Selbak D 0-0 1476 1290 51.2% 28.9% 19.9% -2.7 14
1951-05-20 Orn-Horten W 4-0 1320 1326 42.6% 29.7% 27.7% +41.1 11
1951-05-20 @ Skeid L 0-4 1326 1320 27.7% 29.7% 42.6% -41.1 8
1951-05-20 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1368 1510 24.6% 29.3% 46.1% -24.2 9
1951-05-20 @ Viking W 4-1 1510 1368 46.1% 29.3% 24.6% +24.2 16
1951-05-26 Selbak D 0-0 1361 1292 51.3% 29.3% 19.4% -2.8 12
1951-05-26 @ Skeid D 0-0 1292 1361 19.4% 29.3% 51.3% +2.8 8
1951-05-27 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1317 1534 17.1% 28.5% 54.4% +3.0 11
1951-05-27 @ Strommen D 1-1 1534 1317 54.4% 28.5% 17.1% -3.0 17
1951-05-27 Viking D 0-0 1379 1344 47.5% 29.5% 23.0% -2.1 13
1951-05-27 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1344 1379 23.0% 29.5% 47.5% +2.1 10
1951-05-27 Lisleby W 8-0 1369 1282 53.1% 29.1% 17.8% +56.3 14
1951-05-27 @ Valerenga L 0-8 1282 1369 17.8% 29.1% 53.1% -56.3 7
1951-05-27 Orn-Horten D 1-1 1473 1285 61.6% 27.7% 10.7% -4.3 15
1951-05-27 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1285 1473 10.7% 27.7% 61.6% +4.3 9
1951-05-27 Sarpsborg W 1-0 1369 1363 43.9% 29.7% 26.4% +11.1 14
1951-05-27 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1363 1369 26.4% 29.7% 43.9% -11.1 11
1951-06-03 Valerenga D 1-1 1230 1425 19.1% 28.8% 52.1% +2.6 7
1951-06-03 @ Fram Larvik D 1-1 1425 1230 52.1% 28.8% 19.1% -2.6 15
1951-06-03 Brann L 1-2 1226 1297 33.5% 29.7% 36.8% -12.4 7
1951-06-03 @ Lisleby W 2-1 1297 1226 36.8% 29.7% 33.5% +12.4 12
1951-06-03 Sarpsborg 08 W 2-0 1469 1380 53.3% 29.1% 17.6% +15.2 17
1951-06-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1380 1469 17.6% 29.1% 53.3% -15.2 14
1951-06-03 Skeid W 5-2 1461 1358 54.6% 28.9% 16.4% +15.3 17
1951-06-03 @ IF Odd L 2-5 1358 1461 16.4% 28.9% 54.6% -15.3 12
1951-06-03 Kristiansund FK W 3-1 1289 1153 57.5% 28.5% 13.9% +10.9 11
1951-06-03 @ Orn-Horten L 1-3 1153 1289 13.9% 28.5% 57.5% -10.9 4
1951-06-03 Fredrikstad L 0-5 1377 1531 23.1% 29.2% 47.6% -44.0 13
1951-06-03 @ Sandefjord W 5-0 1531 1377 47.6% 29.2% 23.1% +44.0 19
1951-06-03 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1295 1352 35.5% 29.8% 34.7% -0.0 9
1951-06-03 @ Selbak D 1-1 1352 1295 34.7% 29.8% 35.5% +0.1 12
1951-06-03 Viking L 0-1 1320 1346 39.8% 29.8% 30.4% -14.9 11
1951-06-03 @ Strommen W 1-0 1346 1320 30.4% 29.8% 39.8% +14.9 12
1951-06-10 Brann W 4-0 1575 1310 66.5% 26.2% 7.2% +12.9 21
1951-06-10 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1310 1575 7.2% 26.2% 66.5% -12.9 12
1951-06-10 IF Odd D 0-0 1484 1477 44.2% 29.7% 26.1% -1.5 18
1951-06-10 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1477 1484 26.1% 29.7% 44.2% +1.5 18
1951-06-10 Skeid L 1-2 1352 1343 44.5% 29.7% 25.9% -15.4 12
1951-06-10 @ Sarpsborg W 2-1 1343 1352 25.9% 29.7% 44.5% +15.4 14
1951-06-10 Kristiansund FK W 7-0 1364 1143 63.9% 27.1% 9.0% +27.1 16
1951-06-10 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-7 1143 1364 9.0% 27.1% 63.9% -27.1 4
1951-06-10 Orn-Horten W 3-1 1295 1300 42.7% 29.7% 27.6% +18.7 11
1951-06-10 @ Selbak L 1-3 1300 1295 27.6% 29.7% 42.7% -18.7 11
1951-06-10 Fram Larvik W 4-0 1305 1233 51.6% 29.3% 19.1% +30.9 13
1951-06-10 @ Strommen L 0-4 1233 1305 19.1% 29.3% 51.6% -31.0 7
1951-06-10 Sandefjord W 1-0 1422 1333 53.4% 29.1% 17.5% +8.1 17
1951-06-10 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1333 1422 17.5% 29.1% 53.4% -8.1 13
1951-06-10 Lisleby L 0-2 1361 1213 58.6% 28.4% 13.1% -39.4 12
1951-06-10 @ Viking W 2-0 1213 1361 13.1% 28.4% 58.6% +39.4 9
1951-06-17 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1337 1483 24.2% 29.3% 46.5% +1.7 13
1951-06-17 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1483 1337 46.5% 29.3% 24.2% -1.7 19
1951-06-17 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-0 1281 1392 28.3% 29.6% 42.1% +42.6 13
1951-06-17 @ Orn-Horten L 0-3 1392 1281 42.1% 29.6% 28.3% -42.6 16
1951-06-17 Sandefjord D 1-1 1297 1325 39.6% 29.8% 30.6% -0.7 13
1951-06-17 @ Brann D 1-1 1325 1297 30.6% 29.8% 39.6% +0.7 14
1951-06-17 Viking L 0-2 1202 1322 27.1% 29.5% 43.4% -21.2 7
1951-06-17 @ Fram Larvik W 2-0 1322 1202 43.4% 29.5% 27.1% +21.3 14
1951-06-17 Skeid L 0-2 1115 1358 15.1% 28.1% 56.8% -13.3 4
1951-06-17 @ Kristiansund FK W 2-0 1358 1115 56.8% 28.1% 15.1% +13.3 16
1951-06-17 Fredrikstad L 1-2 1253 1588 9.5% 26.5% 64.0% -4.4 9
1951-06-17 @ Lisleby W 2-1 1588 1253 64.0% 26.5% 9.5% +4.4 23
1951-06-17 Selbak W 3-2 1478 1314 59.9% 28.1% 12.0% +5.2 20
1951-06-17 @ IF Odd L 2-3 1314 1478 12.0% 28.1% 59.9% -5.2 11
1951-06-17 Strommen W 4-1 1430 1336 53.8% 29.0% 17.1% +18.3 19
1951-06-17 @ Valerenga L 1-4 1336 1430 17.1% 29.0% 53.8% -18.3 13

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1951-06-21 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1483 1593 28.5% 29.6% 41.9% -19.1 0-1
1951-06-21 @ IF Odd W 3-1 1593 1483 41.9% 29.6% 28.5% +19.1 1-0
1951-06-26 IF Odd W 4-2 1612 1464 58.5% 28.4% 13.1% +9.2 2-0
1951-06-26 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1464 1612 13.1% 28.4% 58.5% -9.2 0-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1951-06-10 13.07% Lisleby 1213 2 @ Viking 1361 0
2 1950-08-20 16.29% Fram Larvik 1273 2 @ Sandefjord 1377 0
3 1950-10-29 16.70% Fram Larvik 1222 4 @ Brann 1321 3
4 1951-04-29 16.77% @ Brann 1304 4 Fredrikstad 1526 3
5 1950-09-03 17.81% Skeid 1293 3 @ Sarpsborg 08 1380 1
6 1950-10-08 22.94% Strommen 1243 3 @ Fram Larvik 1278 0
7 1950-10-01 24.58% Sandefjord 1365 3 @ Viking 1385 2
8 1950-10-15 25.68% Sarpsborg 1314 3 @ Orn-Horten 1325 0
9 1951-06-10 25.86% Skeid 1343 2 @ Sarpsborg 1352 1
10 1950-08-06 26.22% Lyn Oslo 1344 3 @ Orn-Horten 1350 1
11 1951-05-20 26.98% @ Sarpsborg 08 1354 3 IF Odd 1476 2
12 1950-09-03 27.79% Brann 1316 2 @ Fram Larvik 1310 1
13 1950-10-15 27.86% Strommen 1290 3 @ Lisleby 1283 2
14 1951-06-17 28.35% @ Orn-Horten 1281 3 Sarpsborg 08 1392 0
15 1950-09-10 29.67% @ Brann 1331 3 Viking 1431 1
16 1951-05-20 30.03% Lisleby 1268 2 @ Fram Larvik 1244 1
17 1950-09-17 30.16% Orn-Horten 1327 3 @ Kristiansund FK 1302 2
18 1951-06-03 30.44% Viking 1346 1 @ Strommen 1320 0
19 1950-08-20 30.47% Sarpsborg 08 1365 1 @ Kristiansund FK 1338 0
20 1950-10-01 31.19% Valerenga 1333 5 @ Lisleby 1301 3
21 1950-09-17 31.43% @ Strommen 1229 1 Lisleby 1315 0
22 1950-10-22 31.92% @ Orn-Horten 1280 5 Skeid 1363 1
23 1951-05-20 32.86% Valerenga 1355 2 @ Brann 1311 1
24 1950-08-13 33.35% Viking 1386 2 @ Lisleby 1338 0
25 1951-05-06 34.20% IF Odd 1438 3 @ Sarpsborg 1384 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-05-06 59.31 Lyn Oslo 14 1417 51.20% @ Kristiansund FK 2 1230 19.89% 28.91%
2 1951-05-27 56.26 @ Valerenga 8 1369 53.07% Lisleby 0 1282 17.81% 29.12%
3 1950-08-13 52.89 Fredrikstad 5 1427 40.87% @ Fram Larvik 0 1326 29.51% 29.62%
4 1950-10-08 47.17 Strommen 3 1243 22.94% @ Fram Larvik 0 1278 47.52% 29.54%
5 1950-10-15 44.75 Sarpsborg 3 1314 25.68% @ Orn-Horten 0 1325 44.65% 29.67%
6 1951-06-03 44.03 Fredrikstad 5 1531 47.63% @ Sandefjord 0 1377 23.13% 29.24%
7 1950-08-13 43.33 @ IF Odd 6 1339 41.24% Sarpsborg 1 1355 29.01% 29.75%
8 1950-10-22 43.21 @ Orn-Horten 5 1280 31.92% Skeid 1 1363 38.38% 29.70%
9 1951-06-17 42.56 @ Orn-Horten 3 1281 28.35% Sarpsborg 08 0 1392 42.07% 29.57%
10 1951-05-20 41.06 @ Skeid 4 1320 42.57% Orn-Horten 0 1326 27.71% 29.72%
11 1950-08-06 40.68 @ Fredrikstad 5 1386 49.85% Strommen 0 1331 20.75% 29.40%
12 1951-06-10 39.39 Lisleby 2 1213 13.07% @ Viking 0 1361 58.56% 28.37%
13 1951-05-06 37.92 IF Odd 3 1438 34.20% @ Sarpsborg 0 1384 36.04% 29.76%
14 1950-08-20 36.94 Fram Larvik 2 1273 16.29% @ Sandefjord 0 1377 54.77% 28.93%
15 1950-09-17 36.71 @ Sandefjord 5 1328 39.70% Brann 1 1356 30.53% 29.77%
16 1950-10-08 32.77 @ Selbak 8 1273 41.23% Kristiansund FK 3 1289 29.03% 29.75%
17 1950-08-13 31.86 Sandefjord 4 1345 34.39% @ Strommen 1 1290 35.85% 29.76%
18 1950-09-03 31.06 Skeid 3 1293 17.81% @ Sarpsborg 08 1 1380 53.07% 29.12%
19 1951-06-10 30.95 @ Strommen 4 1305 51.62% Fram Larvik 0 1233 19.12% 29.26%
20 1950-10-22 27.55 @ Sarpsborg 4 1359 54.47% Kristiansund FK 0 1258 16.56% 28.97%
21 1951-06-10 27.14 @ Sarpsborg 08 7 1364 63.87% Kristiansund FK 0 1143 9.00% 27.13%
22 1950-09-03 26.91 @ Orn-Horten 4 1300 41.98% Selbak 1 1310 28.29% 29.74%
23 1950-08-13 26.55 Viking 2 1386 33.35% @ Lisleby 0 1338 36.88% 29.77%
24 1950-08-06 26.40 Lyn Oslo 3 1344 26.22% @ Orn-Horten 1 1350 44.09% 29.68%
25 1950-08-20 25.91 IF Odd 2 1382 34.58% @ Orn-Horten 0 1326 35.66% 29.76%