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1949-50 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

21 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fram Larvik

5.59 points above expected

20 points · 14.41 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mjondalen

5.62 points below expected

4 points · 9.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 8 5 1 21 38 11 +27 20.07 +0.93
2 Sarpsborg 08 14 9 3 2 21 26 9 +17 16.49 +4.51
3 Fram Larvik 14 7 6 1 20 22 13 +9 14.41 +5.59
4 Orn-Horten 14 8 1 5 17 32 24 +8 15.44 +1.56
5 Sarpsborg 14 5 7 2 17 24 17 +7 16.34 +0.66
6 Viking 14 5 6 3 16 28 20 +8 16.18 -0.18
7 Skeid 14 6 4 4 16 19 18 +1 13.37 +2.63
8 Valerenga 14 5 6 3 16 23 24 -1 14.36 +1.64
9 Lyn Oslo 14 5 3 6 13 21 21 0 13.64 -0.64
10 Selbak 14 3 7 4 13 17 21 -4 12.67 +0.33
11 Strommen 14 5 3 6 13 19 25 -6 12.16 +0.84
12 Sandefjord 14 4 3 7 11 15 25 -10 12.98 -1.98
13 Algard 14 1 7 6 9 8 18 -10 12.55 -3.55
14 Ranheim 14 3 3 8 9 10 29 -19 11.88 -2.88
15 Storm 14 2 4 8 8 18 27 -9 11.85 -3.85
16 Mjondalen 14 1 2 11 4 9 27 -18 9.62 -5.62

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fram Larvik 2
Fredrikstad 1

Leg 1: Fredrikstad 1-1 Fram Larvik

Leg 2: Fram Larvik 1-0 Fredrikstad

Sim: 6.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1541 21 20.07 +0.93 69.6% 9 16 18 20 22 24 28
Sarpsborg 08 1459 21 16.49 +4.51 96.4% 6 12 15 17 18 21 26
Viking 1439 16 16.18 -0.18 53.6% 6 11 14 16 18 21 26
Sarpsborg 1419 17 16.34 +0.66 65.0% 5 11 14 16 18 21 28
Fram Larvik 1399 20 14.41 +5.59 98.1% 3 9 12 14 16 19 26
Orn-Horten 1396 17 15.44 +1.56 74.7% 4 11 13 15 18 20 28
Lyn Oslo 1371 13 13.64 -0.64 48.0% 3 9 12 14 16 19 24
Skeid 1352 16 13.37 +2.63 85.6% 3 9 11 13 15 18 23
Valerenga 1343 16 14.36 +1.64 76.3% 3 9 12 14 16 19 26
Strommen 1319 13 12.16 +0.84 67.8% 2 7 10 12 14 17 25
Sandefjord 1313 11 12.98 -1.98 30.4% 3 8 11 13 15 18 24
Selbak 1304 13 12.67 +0.33 61.0% 3 8 11 13 15 18 23
Algard 1281 9 12.55 -3.55 15.3% 2 8 11 12 15 18 23
Storm 1257 8 11.85 -3.85 13.1% 1 7 10 12 14 17 23
Ranheim 1234 9 11.88 -2.88 20.9% 2 7 10 12 14 17 23
Mjondalen 1180 4 9.62 -5.62 2.9% 0 5 8 10 11 14 20

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALG FL FRE LO MJO ORN RAN SAN SAR S0 SEL SKE STO STR VAL VIK
Algard —
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.07
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.73
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.23
0-0-2
2.12
Fram Larvik
1-1-0
3.16
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.02
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.19
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.80
1-1-0
2.26
Fredrikstad
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.43
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
4.29
1-1-0
4.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.59
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
4.10
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lyn Oslo
0-2-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.21
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.82
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.97
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.03
Mjondalen
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
1.63
0-1-1
2.14
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.47
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.04
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Orn-Horten
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.74
 —
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
3.18
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.17
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.41
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Ranheim
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.15
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.20
0-1-1
2.18
 —
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.79
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.18
0-0-2
2.16
1-0-1
3.07
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.39
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.92
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg
0-2-0
3.27
0-0-2
3.23
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.12
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.33
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.48
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.83
0-2-0
2.90
Sarpsborg 08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
1.77
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.93
2-0-0
2.95
1-1-0
3.56
1-0-1
3.29
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.46
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.53
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Selbak
1-1-0
2.55
0-1-1
2.31
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.02
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.47
0-2-0
2.05
Skeid
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.31
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.56
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.98
0-2-0
2.94
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.95
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Storm
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.37
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.87
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.48
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.23
0-1-1
1.74
Strommen
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.38
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.30
0-0-2
1.94
2-0-0
2.75
2-0-0
2.41
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Valerenga
1-1-0
3.10
0-2-0
2.53
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.87
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.10
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
2.30
Viking
2-0-0
3.22
0-1-1
3.07
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
2.43
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.29
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.62
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.03
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +5.0
Allowed 0.62 -6.5
Differential 0.85 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%7.59%6.70%2.23%2.23%1.34%26.34%
17.59%16.07%3.57%2.68%1.34%0.89%32.14%
26.70%3.57%8.04%2.23%2.68%0.45%23.66%
32.23%2.68%2.23%0.89%—0.45%8.48%
42.23%1.34%2.68%———6.25%
5+1.34%0.89%0.45%0.45%——3.12%
Total26.34%32.14%23.66%8.48%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 2.01
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%7.14%21.43%———50.00%
17.14%21.43%—14.29%——42.86%
2——7.14%———7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%28.57%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.57 1.29 -0.71
SD 0.65 1.07 1.07
CV 1.13 0.83 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
114.29%21.43%————35.71%
27.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%35.71%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 0.93 +0.64
SD 1.02 0.83 1.22
CV 0.65 0.89 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%————21.43%
17.14%14.29%————21.43%
2——7.14%———7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
47.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
5+14.29%7.14%————21.43%
Total42.86%35.71%21.43%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.71 0.79 +1.93
SD 2.40 0.80 2.56
CV 0.88 1.02 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
17.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%——42.86%
214.29%——7.14%7.14%—28.57%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%21.43%28.57%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.09 1.29 1.41
CV 0.73 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%21.43%14.29%——57.14%
17.14%—14.29%———21.43%
2——14.29%—7.14%—21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%21.43%50.00%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 1.93 -1.29
SD 0.84 1.00 1.14
CV 1.31 0.52 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—14.29%——7.14%28.57%
1———————
221.43%——14.29%——35.71%
3———————
414.29%—7.14%———21.43%
5+—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
Total42.86%7.14%21.43%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.71 +0.57
SD 1.86 2.20 3.25
CV 0.81 1.28 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—14.29%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
121.43%7.14%—14.29%7.14%7.14%57.14%
2——7.14%———7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%7.14%21.43%21.43%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 2.07 -1.36
SD 0.61 1.69 1.82
CV 0.86 0.81 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%—14.29%—35.71%
17.14%14.29%7.14%—7.14%7.14%42.86%
2———————
314.29%7.14%————21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%14.29%—21.43%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.79 -0.71
SD 1.14 1.76 2.46
CV 1.07 0.99 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
1—35.71%————35.71%
214.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%——42.86%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%64.29%7.14%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.21 +0.50
SD 0.99 0.89 1.16
CV 0.58 0.74 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%————14.29%
114.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
27.14%7.14%————14.29%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
414.29%—————14.29%
5+———————
Total50.00%35.71%14.29%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 0.64 +1.21
SD 1.35 0.74 1.63
CV 0.73 1.16 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%7.14%——21.43%
17.14%28.57%————35.71%
27.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.50 -0.29
SD 0.80 1.22 1.33
CV 0.66 0.82 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%——7.14%—28.57%
17.14%14.29%————21.43%
214.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
3—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%50.00%7.14%—7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.29 +0.07
SD 1.08 1.49 1.69
CV 0.80 1.16 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
1—21.43%7.14%———28.57%
27.14%—7.14%—14.29%7.14%35.71%
3———————
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%42.86%28.57%—14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.93 -0.64
SD 1.14 1.44 1.45
CV 0.89 0.75 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—7.14%7.14%7.14%35.71%
1—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
214.29%7.14%7.14%—7.14%—35.71%
37.14%—————7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%7.14%14.29%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.79 -0.43
SD 1.28 1.72 2.53
CV 0.94 0.96 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
17.14%35.71%——7.14%—50.00%
2——7.14%———7.14%
3—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
4——14.29%———14.29%
5+———————
Total7.14%50.00%28.57%—7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.71 -0.07
SD 1.34 1.33 1.94
CV 0.81 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
114.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
2——28.57%———28.57%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+7.14%—7.14%———14.29%
Total21.43%21.43%50.00%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.43 +0.57
SD 1.57 0.94 1.79
CV 0.78 0.66 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fram Larvik 20 14.41 +5.59
2 Sarpsborg 08 21 16.49 +4.51
3 Skeid 16 13.37 +2.63
4 Valerenga 16 14.36 +1.64
5 Orn-Horten 17 15.44 +1.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mjondalen 4 9.62 -5.62
2 Storm 8 11.85 -3.85
3 Algard 9 12.55 -3.55
4 Ranheim 9 11.88 -2.88
5 Sandefjord 11 12.98 -1.98

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 3 Oct 9 – Oct 23 1 in 42
2 Ranheim 3 Aug 21 – Sep 18 1 in 35
3 Sarpsborg 08 4 Aug 7 – Sep 4 1 in 35
4 Fram Larvik 3 Aug 7 – Aug 21 1 in 35
5 Skeid 2 Apr 30 – May 7 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Storm 6 Apr 30 – May 28 1 in 168
2 Mjondalen 6 Aug 7 – Oct 9 1 in 94
3 Ranheim 5 May 7 – May 28 1 in 48
4 Orn-Horten 3 May 7 – May 21 1 in 24
5 Sandefjord 3 Aug 7 – Aug 21 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fram Larvik 10 Aug 7 – Apr 30 1 in 52
2 Sarpsborg 08 11 Aug 7 – May 11 1 in 34
3 Sarpsborg 11 Aug 14 – May 14 1 in 24
4 Strommen 5 May 7 – May 28 1 in 12
5 Skeid 4 Nov 4 – May 7 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Algard 8 Aug 7 – Oct 16 1 in 19
2 Mjondalen 12 Aug 7 – May 14 1 in 14
3 Ranheim 9 Oct 9 – May 28 1 in 13
4 Storm 8 Oct 16 – May 28 1 in 11
5 Viking 5 Oct 16 – May 7 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad72.56%17.50%6.24%2.26%0.96%0.31%0.17%—
Sarpsborg 0814.12%35.49%22.79%13.47%6.63%4.56%2.18%0.76%
Fram Larvik13.35%15.52%15.68%15.10%13.38%11.28%9.58%6.11%
Orn-Horten8.05%23.70%24.16%17.56%12.26%7.67%4.83%1.77%
Sarpsborg30.44%22.22%15.87%11.60%8.47%5.64%3.86%1.90%
Viking29.18%21.76%15.75%11.67%8.80%6.61%4.22%2.01%
Skeid1.91%8.61%16.27%19.86%19.10%15.91%11.84%6.50%
Valerenga11.01%13.33%15.40%15.26%14.35%12.87%10.22%7.56%
Lyn Oslo6.91%10.72%13.50%14.46%15.33%14.80%13.73%10.55%
Selbak3.67%6.48%9.64%12.20%14.66%16.45%17.33%19.57%
Strommen1.15%4.12%9.20%14.14%18.70%19.51%19.27%13.91%
Sandefjord1.35%6.54%12.12%16.94%19.26%18.83%15.32%9.64%
Algard3.52%5.48%7.78%10.77%13.39%16.92%19.83%22.31%
Ranheim0.72%3.36%7.28%11.72%15.40%19.89%22.76%18.87%
Storm1.92%4.49%6.38%8.94%11.62%15.43%21.23%29.99%
Mjondalen0.14%0.68%1.94%4.05%7.69%13.32%23.63%48.55%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.68%
No Edge
35.71%31.25%33.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 9.31 Elo pts.
121 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.2
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
73%
Fredrikstad, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.35 * Some Luck: 2.35 to 3.52 * Lucky: 3.52 to 4.69 * Wild Swing: 4.69 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.53 * Close: 2.53 to 3.8 * Off: 3.8 to 5.07 * Way Off: 5.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.93 points
Some Luck
02.937
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.12
Pinpoint
03.178
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
98.06%
Fram Larvik
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
2.87%
Mjondalen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.31
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.01
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.61
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.26
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.096
Well Within Noise
00.1710.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fram Larvik — —
Fredrikstad — —
Sarpsborg 08 82.94% 2.94%
Sarpsborg 63.80% 5.76%
Viking 64.59% 6.23%
Orn-Horten 85.35% 6.60%
Valerenga 71.21% 17.78%
Skeid 79.75% 18.34%
Lyn Oslo 68.81% 24.28%
Sandefjord 73.69% 24.96%
Strommen 65.67% 33.18%
Selbak 59.43% 36.90%
Ranheim 57.65% 41.63%
Algard 54.34% 42.14%
Storm 46.86% 51.22%
Mjondalen 27.68% 72.18%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AlgardFram LarvikFredrikstadLyn OsloOrn-HortenRanheimSandefjordSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SelbakSkeidStormStrommenValerengaViking
Algard0.0%3.00%
Fram Larvik37.5%16.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad100.0%3.00%62.5%16.00%50.0%2.00%76.2%21.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%8.00%77.3%22.00%
Lyn Oslo50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%
Orn-Horten100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Ranheim0.0%1.00%
Sandefjord100.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg23.8%21.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg 08100.0%3.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%60.0%5.00%
Selbak0.0%2.00%
Skeid0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Storm50.0%2.00%
Strommen0.0%1.00%
Valerenga50.0%8.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%
Viking22.7%22.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 76.12%
Fram Larvik 23.88%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Fram LarvikFredrikstad
Fram Larvik23.9%100.00%
Fredrikstad76.1%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1949-08-07 Viking L 1-3 1346 1410 27.1% 33.2% 39.7% -12.2 0
1949-08-07 @ Algard W 3-1 1410 1346 39.7% 33.2% 27.1% +12.2 2
1949-08-07 Sarpsborg W 3-2 1319 1390 26.3% 33.2% 40.5% +8.9 2
1949-08-07 @ Fram Larvik L 2-3 1390 1319 40.5% 33.2% 26.3% -8.9 0
1949-08-07 Strommen W 5-0 1480 1319 54.8% 30.9% 14.3% +20.0 2
1949-08-07 @ Fredrikstad L 0-5 1319 1480 14.3% 30.9% 54.8% -20.0 0
1949-08-07 Orn-Horten L 0-2 1319 1358 30.3% 33.4% 36.2% -15.3 0
1949-08-07 @ Ranheim W 2-0 1358 1319 36.2% 33.4% 30.3% +15.3 2
1949-08-07 Sandefjord W 4-0 1364 1371 34.9% 33.5% 31.6% +29.8 2
1949-08-07 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-4 1371 1364 31.6% 33.5% 34.9% -29.8 0
1949-08-07 Mjondalen W 2-1 1330 1265 44.4% 33.0% 22.7% +6.2 2
1949-08-07 @ Skeid L 1-2 1265 1330 22.7% 33.0% 44.4% -6.2 0
1949-08-07 Lyn Oslo W 4-2 1296 1364 26.7% 33.2% 40.1% +14.4 2
1949-08-07 @ Storm L 2-4 1364 1296 40.1% 33.2% 26.7% -14.4 0
1949-08-07 Selbak D 1-1 1356 1319 40.8% 33.3% 25.9% -0.7 1
1949-08-07 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1319 1356 25.9% 33.3% 40.8% +0.7 1
1949-08-14 Fram Larvik L 1-3 1349 1328 38.8% 33.4% 27.9% -15.7 0
1949-08-14 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1328 1349 27.9% 33.4% 38.8% +15.7 4
1949-08-14 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1259 1394 19.4% 32.1% 48.4% -5.8 0
1949-08-14 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1394 1259 48.4% 32.1% 19.4% +5.8 4
1949-08-14 Skeid W 5-3 1374 1336 40.9% 33.3% 25.9% +10.0 4
1949-08-14 @ Orn-Horten L 3-5 1336 1374 25.9% 33.3% 40.9% -10.0 2
1949-08-14 Fredrikstad L 1-4 1341 1500 17.3% 31.6% 51.1% -12.3 0
1949-08-14 @ Sandefjord W 4-1 1500 1341 51.1% 31.6% 17.3% +12.2 4
1949-08-14 Algard D 2-2 1381 1334 42.1% 33.2% 24.7% -0.6 1
1949-08-14 @ Sarpsborg D 2-2 1334 1381 24.7% 33.2% 42.1% +0.6 1
1949-08-14 Storm D 1-1 1320 1310 37.1% 33.5% 29.4% -0.4 2
1949-08-14 @ Selbak D 1-1 1310 1320 29.4% 33.5% 37.1% +0.4 3
1949-08-14 Ranheim W 4-1 1299 1304 35.2% 33.5% 31.3% +19.2 2
1949-08-14 @ Strommen L 1-4 1304 1299 31.3% 33.5% 35.2% -19.1 0
1949-08-14 Valerenga L 0-1 1422 1355 44.7% 32.9% 22.4% -10.7 2
1949-08-14 @ Viking W 1-0 1355 1422 22.4% 32.9% 44.7% +10.7 3
1949-08-21 Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1334 1334 35.9% 33.5% 30.6% -0.2 2
1949-08-21 @ Algard D 1-1 1334 1334 30.6% 33.5% 35.9% +0.2 1
1949-08-21 Selbak W 3-0 1344 1320 39.1% 33.4% 27.5% +20.8 6
1949-08-21 @ Fram Larvik L 0-3 1320 1344 27.5% 33.4% 39.1% -20.8 2
1949-08-21 Mjondalen W 4-2 1513 1253 63.4% 27.5% 9.1% +4.2 6
1949-08-21 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1253 1513 9.1% 27.5% 63.4% -4.2 0
1949-08-21 Sandefjord W 1-0 1285 1329 29.7% 33.4% 36.9% +9.3 2
1949-08-21 @ Ranheim L 0-1 1329 1285 36.9% 33.4% 29.7% -9.3 0
1949-08-21 Orn-Horten W 3-2 1400 1384 38.1% 33.4% 28.5% +6.9 6
1949-08-21 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 2-3 1384 1400 28.5% 33.4% 38.1% -7.0 4
1949-08-21 Strommen W 3-1 1326 1318 37.0% 33.5% 29.6% +13.0 4
1949-08-21 @ Skeid L 1-3 1318 1326 29.6% 33.5% 37.0% -13.0 2
1949-08-21 Viking D 2-2 1311 1412 22.8% 32.8% 44.4% +0.8 4
1949-08-21 @ Storm D 2-2 1412 1311 44.4% 32.8% 22.8% -0.8 3
1949-08-21 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1366 1380 33.8% 33.5% 32.7% -0.0 4
1949-08-21 @ Valerenga D 1-1 1380 1366 32.7% 33.5% 33.8% +0.0 2
1949-09-04 Orn-Horten W 8-0 1517 1377 52.8% 31.4% 15.8% +34.0 8
1949-09-04 @ Fredrikstad L 0-8 1377 1517 15.8% 31.4% 52.8% -34.0 4
1949-09-04 Valerenga L 2-3 1334 1366 31.4% 33.5% 35.2% -7.4 1
1949-09-04 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-2 1366 1334 35.2% 33.5% 31.4% +7.4 6
1949-09-04 Ranheim L 0-1 1249 1294 29.5% 33.4% 37.1% -8.0 0
1949-09-04 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1294 1249 37.1% 33.4% 29.5% +8.0 4
1949-09-04 Skeid D 0-0 1320 1339 33.0% 33.5% 33.5% +0.0 1
1949-09-04 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1339 1320 33.5% 33.5% 33.0% -0.0 5
1949-09-04 Storm W 2-0 1380 1312 44.8% 32.9% 22.3% +12.3 4
1949-09-04 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1312 1380 22.3% 32.9% 44.8% -12.3 4
1949-09-04 Algard W 2-0 1299 1334 30.9% 33.5% 35.7% +17.1 4
1949-09-04 @ Selbak L 0-2 1334 1299 35.7% 33.5% 30.9% -17.1 2
1949-09-04 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1305 1407 22.8% 32.8% 44.5% -6.6 2
1949-09-04 @ Strommen W 1-0 1407 1305 44.5% 32.8% 22.8% +6.6 8
1949-09-04 Fram Larvik D 2-2 1411 1365 42.1% 33.2% 24.8% -0.6 4
1949-09-04 @ Viking D 2-2 1365 1411 24.8% 33.2% 42.1% +0.6 7
1949-09-11 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1316 1393 25.6% 33.1% 41.3% +0.7 5
1949-09-11 @ Selbak D 1-1 1393 1316 41.3% 33.1% 25.6% -0.7 5
1949-09-17 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1413 1551 19.2% 32.1% 48.7% +1.6 9
1949-09-17 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 0-0 1551 1413 48.7% 32.1% 19.2% -1.6 9
1949-09-17 Selbak D 2-2 1410 1317 47.8% 32.5% 19.8% -1.0 5
1949-09-17 @ Viking D 2-2 1317 1410 19.8% 32.5% 47.8% +1.0 6
1949-09-18 Valerenga D 1-1 1317 1373 28.1% 33.3% 38.6% +0.5 3
1949-09-18 @ Algard D 1-1 1373 1317 38.6% 33.3% 28.1% -0.5 7
1949-09-18 Storm D 1-1 1365 1299 44.5% 32.9% 22.6% -1.1 8
1949-09-18 @ Fram Larvik D 1-1 1299 1365 22.6% 32.9% 44.5% +1.1 5
1949-09-18 Mjondalen W 2-0 1343 1241 48.7% 32.3% 19.0% +10.9 6
1949-09-18 @ Orn-Horten L 0-2 1241 1343 19.0% 32.3% 48.7% -10.9 0
1949-09-18 Strommen L 1-2 1320 1299 38.7% 33.4% 27.9% -9.0 1
1949-09-18 @ Sandefjord W 2-1 1299 1320 27.9% 33.4% 38.7% +9.0 4
1949-09-18 Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1392 1327 44.4% 33.0% 22.6% +6.2 7
1949-09-18 @ Sarpsborg L 1-2 1327 1392 22.6% 33.0% 44.4% -6.2 1
1949-09-18 Ranheim L 0-1 1339 1302 40.9% 33.3% 25.8% -10.0 5
1949-09-18 @ Skeid W 1-0 1302 1339 25.8% 33.3% 40.9% +10.0 6
1949-09-25 Algard D 0-0 1364 1317 42.1% 33.2% 24.7% -0.9 9
1949-09-25 @ Fram Larvik D 0-0 1317 1364 24.7% 33.2% 42.1% +0.9 4
1949-09-25 Viking L 0-1 1320 1409 24.1% 33.0% 42.9% -6.9 1
1949-09-25 @ Lyn Oslo W 1-0 1409 1320 42.9% 33.0% 24.1% +6.9 7
1949-09-25 Sandefjord W 4-0 1354 1311 41.6% 33.2% 25.2% +25.5 8
1949-09-25 @ Orn-Horten L 0-4 1311 1354 25.2% 33.2% 41.6% -25.5 1
1949-10-09 Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1312 1415 22.6% 32.8% 44.6% -10.7 6
1949-10-09 @ Ranheim W 3-1 1415 1312 44.6% 32.8% 22.6% +10.7 11
1949-10-09 Mjondalen W 3-0 1285 1230 43.1% 33.1% 23.8% +18.7 3
1949-10-09 @ Sandefjord L 0-3 1230 1285 23.8% 33.1% 43.1% -18.7 0
1949-10-09 Lyn Oslo L 2-3 1318 1313 36.4% 33.5% 30.1% -8.2 6
1949-10-09 @ Selbak W 3-2 1313 1318 30.1% 33.5% 36.4% +8.2 3
1949-10-09 Algard W 2-0 1300 1318 33.3% 33.5% 33.2% +16.2 7
1949-10-09 @ Storm L 0-2 1318 1300 33.2% 33.5% 33.3% -16.3 4
1949-10-09 Orn-Horten L 2-4 1308 1379 26.2% 33.2% 40.6% -10.7 4
1949-10-09 @ Strommen W 4-2 1379 1308 40.6% 33.2% 26.2% +10.7 10
1949-10-16 Selbak D 0-0 1302 1309 34.8% 33.5% 31.7% -0.1 5
1949-10-16 @ Algard D 0-0 1309 1302 31.7% 33.5% 34.8% +0.1 7
1949-10-16 Viking W 2-1 1363 1416 28.5% 33.3% 38.1% +9.0 11
1949-10-16 @ Fram Larvik L 1-2 1416 1363 38.1% 33.3% 28.5% -8.9 7
1949-10-16 Storm W 4-2 1322 1317 36.5% 33.5% 30.0% +11.8 5
1949-10-16 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-4 1317 1322 30.0% 33.5% 36.5% -11.8 7
1949-10-16 Ranheim D 0-0 1390 1301 47.2% 32.6% 20.3% -1.5 11
1949-10-16 @ Orn-Horten D 0-0 1301 1390 20.3% 32.6% 47.2% +1.5 7
1949-10-16 Valerenga W 4-1 1398 1373 39.3% 33.4% 27.3% +17.4 9
1949-10-16 @ Sarpsborg L 1-4 1373 1398 27.3% 33.4% 39.3% -17.4 7
1949-10-16 Strommen W 3-0 1426 1297 51.6% 31.7% 16.7% +14.2 13
1949-10-16 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-3 1297 1426 16.7% 31.7% 51.6% -14.2 4
1949-10-23 Valerenga D 1-1 1305 1355 28.8% 33.4% 37.8% +0.4 8
1949-10-23 @ Storm D 1-1 1355 1305 37.8% 33.4% 28.8% -0.4 8
1949-10-23 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1549 1440 49.5% 32.2% 18.3% -1.6 10
1949-10-23 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1440 1549 18.3% 32.2% 49.5% +1.6 14
1949-10-23 Mjondalen D 2-2 1303 1211 47.5% 32.5% 20.0% -1.0 8
1949-10-23 @ Ranheim D 2-2 1211 1303 20.0% 32.5% 47.5% +1.0 1
1949-10-23 Orn-Horten L 1-5 1304 1388 24.7% 33.0% 42.3% -20.9 3
1949-10-23 @ Sandefjord W 5-1 1388 1304 42.3% 33.0% 24.7% +20.9 13
1949-10-23 Fram Larvik D 1-1 1310 1372 27.3% 33.3% 39.4% +0.6 8
1949-10-23 @ Selbak D 1-1 1372 1310 39.4% 33.3% 27.3% -0.6 12
1949-10-23 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1407 1333 45.5% 32.8% 21.7% -20.5 7
1949-10-23 @ Viking W 2-0 1333 1407 21.7% 32.8% 45.5% +20.5 7
1949-10-30 Strommen D 2-2 1212 1283 26.3% 33.2% 40.5% +0.5 2
1949-10-30 @ Mjondalen D 2-2 1283 1212 40.5% 33.2% 26.3% -0.5 5
1949-10-30 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1387 1415 31.8% 33.5% 34.7% +0.1 8
1949-10-30 @ Viking D 1-1 1415 1387 34.7% 33.5% 31.8% -0.1 10
1949-11-04 Skeid D 2-2 1548 1329 60.0% 29.0% 11.0% -2.0 11
1949-11-04 @ Fredrikstad D 2-2 1329 1548 11.0% 29.0% 60.0% +2.0 6
1949-11-04 Fram Larvik D 2-2 1355 1372 33.5% 33.5% 33.0% -0.0 9
1949-11-04 @ Valerenga D 2-2 1372 1355 33.0% 33.5% 33.5% +0.0 13
1950-04-23 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1213 1546 7.9% 25.6% 66.5% -2.4 2
1950-04-23 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1546 1213 66.5% 25.6% 7.9% +2.4 13
1950-04-23 Sandefjord D 1-1 1331 1283 42.3% 33.2% 24.5% -0.8 7
1950-04-23 @ Skeid D 1-1 1283 1331 24.5% 33.2% 42.3% +0.8 4
1950-04-30 Storm W 1-0 1302 1305 35.4% 33.5% 31.1% +8.2 7
1950-04-30 @ Algard L 0-1 1305 1302 31.1% 33.5% 35.4% -8.3 8
1950-04-30 Valerenga D 1-1 1372 1355 38.1% 33.4% 28.4% -0.4 14
1950-04-30 @ Fram Larvik D 1-1 1355 1372 28.4% 33.4% 38.1% +0.5 10
1950-04-30 Selbak L 1-2 1354 1310 41.7% 33.2% 25.1% -9.6 7
1950-04-30 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-1 1310 1354 25.1% 33.2% 41.7% +9.6 10
1950-04-30 Sandefjord L 0-3 1210 1284 26.0% 33.2% 40.9% -19.9 2
1950-04-30 @ Mjondalen W 3-0 1284 1210 40.9% 33.2% 26.0% +19.9 6
1950-04-30 Strommen W 4-0 1409 1282 51.4% 31.8% 16.9% +18.7 15
1950-04-30 @ Orn-Horten L 0-4 1282 1409 16.9% 31.8% 51.4% -18.7 5
1950-04-30 Viking D 3-3 1415 1387 39.7% 33.4% 27.0% -0.4 11
1950-04-30 @ Sarpsborg D 3-3 1387 1415 27.0% 33.4% 39.7% +0.4 9
1950-04-30 Ranheim D 1-1 1442 1302 52.7% 31.5% 15.8% -1.9 15
1950-04-30 @ Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1302 1442 15.8% 31.5% 52.7% +1.9 9
1950-04-30 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1330 1548 13.2% 29.9% 57.0% +13.1 9
1950-04-30 @ Skeid L 0-1 1548 1330 57.0% 29.9% 13.2% -13.1 13
1950-05-07 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1310 1415 22.4% 32.7% 44.9% +1.1 8
1950-05-07 @ Algard D 1-1 1415 1310 44.9% 32.7% 22.4% -1.1 12
1950-05-07 Fredrikstad L 2-3 1428 1535 22.2% 32.7% 45.2% -5.8 15
1950-05-07 @ Orn-Horten W 3-2 1535 1428 45.2% 32.7% 22.2% +5.8 15
1950-05-07 Skeid L 0-2 1304 1344 30.2% 33.4% 36.3% -15.2 9
1950-05-07 @ Ranheim W 2-0 1344 1304 36.3% 33.4% 30.2% +15.3 11
1950-05-07 Mjondalen W 2-1 1440 1191 62.5% 27.9% 9.5% +2.9 17
1950-05-07 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1191 1440 9.5% 27.9% 62.5% -2.9 2
1950-05-07 Viking D 2-2 1320 1387 26.7% 33.2% 40.1% +0.5 11
1950-05-07 @ Selbak D 2-2 1387 1320 40.1% 33.2% 26.7% -0.5 10
1950-05-07 Sandefjord W 2-0 1264 1304 30.2% 33.4% 36.3% +17.3 7
1950-05-07 @ Strommen L 0-2 1304 1264 36.3% 33.4% 30.2% -17.3 6
1950-05-07 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1371 1344 39.5% 33.4% 27.1% -18.4 14
1950-05-07 @ Fram Larvik W 2-0 1344 1371 27.1% 33.4% 39.5% +18.4 9
1950-05-07 Storm W 4-2 1355 1297 43.5% 33.0% 23.4% +9.9 12
1950-05-07 @ Valerenga L 2-4 1297 1355 23.4% 33.0% 43.5% -9.9 8
1950-05-10 Fram Larvik L 0-1 1287 1353 26.9% 33.2% 39.8% -7.5 8
1950-05-10 @ Storm W 1-0 1353 1287 39.8% 33.2% 26.9% +7.5 16
1950-05-10 Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1365 1363 36.2% 33.5% 30.3% -9.1 12
1950-05-10 @ Valerenga W 1-0 1363 1365 30.3% 33.5% 36.2% +9.1 11
1950-05-10 Selbak W 2-0 1414 1320 47.8% 32.5% 19.8% +11.2 14
1950-05-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1320 1414 19.8% 32.5% 47.8% -11.2 11
1950-05-10 Algard W 1-0 1387 1311 45.6% 32.8% 21.6% +6.4 12
1950-05-10 @ Viking L 0-1 1311 1387 21.6% 32.8% 45.6% -6.3 8
1950-05-11 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-4 1359 1443 24.8% 33.0% 42.2% -25.1 11
1950-05-11 @ Skeid W 4-0 1443 1359 42.2% 33.0% 24.8% +25.1 19
1950-05-14 Fredrikstad L 1-5 1288 1541 11.2% 28.7% 60.1% -10.6 9
1950-05-14 @ Ranheim W 5-1 1541 1288 60.1% 28.7% 11.2% +10.6 17
1950-05-14 Sarpsborg L 1-2 1280 1425 18.5% 31.9% 49.6% -5.3 8
1950-05-14 @ Storm W 2-1 1425 1280 49.6% 31.9% 18.5% +5.3 16
1950-05-14 Algard W 3-1 1356 1305 42.6% 33.1% 24.2% +11.3 14
1950-05-14 @ Valerenga L 1-3 1305 1356 24.2% 33.1% 42.6% -11.3 8
1950-05-14 Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1286 1468 15.6% 31.0% 53.4% +12.4 8
1950-05-14 @ Sandefjord L 0-1 1468 1286 53.4% 31.0% 15.6% -12.4 19
1950-05-14 Orn-Horten W 2-0 1334 1422 24.2% 33.0% 42.8% +19.5 13
1950-05-14 @ Skeid L 0-2 1422 1334 42.8% 33.0% 24.2% -19.5 15
1950-05-14 Mjondalen W 2-0 1281 1188 47.7% 32.5% 19.8% +11.2 9
1950-05-14 @ Strommen L 0-2 1188 1281 19.8% 32.5% 47.7% -11.2 2
1950-05-16 Skeid D 1-1 1292 1353 27.5% 33.3% 39.2% +0.5 10
1950-05-16 @ Strommen D 1-1 1353 1292 39.2% 33.3% 27.5% -0.5 14
1950-05-17 Ranheim W 4-0 1551 1278 64.5% 27.0% 8.6% +9.7 19
1950-05-17 @ Fredrikstad L 0-4 1278 1551 8.6% 27.0% 64.5% -9.7 9
1950-05-21 Sandefjord D 1-1 1561 1299 63.6% 27.4% 9.0% -3.0 20
1950-05-21 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1299 1561 9.0% 27.4% 63.6% +3.0 9
1950-05-21 Algard D 0-0 1372 1294 46.0% 32.8% 21.3% -1.3 12
1950-05-21 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1294 1372 21.3% 32.8% 46.0% +1.4 9
1950-05-21 Skeid W 1-0 1176 1353 16.0% 31.1% 52.9% +12.3 4
1950-05-21 @ Mjondalen L 0-1 1353 1176 52.9% 31.1% 16.0% -12.3 14
1950-05-21 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-2 1403 1455 28.5% 33.4% 38.1% -14.7 15
1950-05-21 @ Orn-Horten W 2-0 1455 1403 38.1% 33.4% 28.5% +14.7 21
1950-05-21 Strommen L 0-3 1268 1293 32.4% 33.5% 34.2% -23.2 9
1950-05-21 @ Ranheim W 3-0 1293 1268 34.2% 33.5% 32.4% +23.2 12
1950-05-21 Fram Larvik L 0-1 1430 1360 45.0% 32.9% 22.1% -10.8 16
1950-05-21 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1360 1430 22.1% 32.9% 45.0% +10.8 18
1950-05-21 Selbak L 0-1 1274 1309 31.0% 33.5% 35.6% -8.2 8
1950-05-21 @ Storm W 1-0 1309 1274 35.6% 33.5% 31.0% +8.2 13
1950-05-21 Viking L 0-5 1367 1393 32.2% 33.5% 34.3% -37.2 14
1950-05-21 @ Valerenga W 5-0 1393 1367 34.3% 33.5% 32.2% +37.2 14
1950-05-28 Fram Larvik L 0-2 1295 1371 25.7% 33.1% 41.2% -13.6 9
1950-05-28 @ Algard W 2-0 1371 1295 41.2% 33.1% 25.7% +13.6 20
1950-05-28 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1370 1420 29.0% 33.4% 37.6% +0.4 13
1950-05-28 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1420 1370 37.6% 33.4% 29.0% -0.4 17
1950-05-28 Orn-Horten L 0-2 1189 1388 14.3% 30.5% 55.2% -8.5 4
1950-05-28 @ Mjondalen W 2-0 1388 1189 55.2% 30.5% 14.3% +8.5 17
1950-05-28 Ranheim W 3-1 1302 1245 43.4% 33.1% 23.6% +11.1 11
1950-05-28 @ Sandefjord L 1-3 1245 1302 23.6% 33.1% 43.4% -11.1 9
1950-05-28 Skeid L 1-2 1470 1340 51.7% 31.7% 16.6% -11.4 21
1950-05-28 @ Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1340 1470 16.6% 31.7% 51.7% +11.4 16
1950-05-28 Valerenga L 2-4 1317 1330 34.0% 33.5% 32.5% -12.8 13
1950-05-28 @ Selbak W 4-2 1330 1317 32.5% 33.5% 34.0% +12.8 16
1950-05-28 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1316 1558 11.8% 29.1% 59.2% +2.8 13
1950-05-28 @ Strommen D 0-0 1558 1316 59.2% 29.1% 11.8% -2.8 21
1950-05-28 Storm W 5-2 1430 1266 55.1% 30.8% 14.1% +8.9 16
1950-05-28 @ Viking L 2-5 1266 1430 14.1% 30.8% 55.1% -8.9 8

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1950-06-11 Fram Larvik D 1-1 1555 1385 55.7% 30.6% 13.7% -2.2 0-0-1
1950-06-11 @ Fredrikstad D 1-1 1385 1555 13.7% 30.6% 55.7% +2.2 0-0-1
1950-06-18 Fredrikstad W 1-0 1387 1553 16.7% 31.4% 51.9% +12.1 1-0-1
1950-06-18 @ Fram Larvik L 0-1 1553 1387 51.9% 31.4% 16.7% -12.1 0-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1950-04-30 13.16% @ Skeid 1330 1 Fredrikstad 1548 0
2 1950-05-14 15.60% @ Sandefjord 1286 1 Sarpsborg 08 1468 0
3 1950-05-21 15.97% @ Mjondalen 1176 1 Skeid 1353 0
4 1950-05-28 16.62% Skeid 1340 2 @ Sarpsborg 08 1470 1
5 1950-06-18 * 16.73% @ Fram Larvik 1387 1 Fredrikstad 1553 0
6 1949-10-23 21.72% Lyn Oslo 1333 2 @ Viking 1407 0
7 1950-05-21 22.12% Fram Larvik 1360 1 @ Sarpsborg 1430 0
8 1949-08-14 22.42% Valerenga 1355 1 @ Viking 1422 0
9 1950-05-14 24.23% @ Skeid 1334 2 Orn-Horten 1422 0
10 1950-04-30 25.08% Selbak 1310 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1354 1
11 1949-09-18 25.84% Ranheim 1302 1 @ Skeid 1339 0
12 1949-08-07 26.32% @ Fram Larvik 1319 3 Sarpsborg 1390 2
13 1949-08-07 26.67% @ Storm 1296 4 Lyn Oslo 1364 2
14 1950-05-07 27.14% Lyn Oslo 1344 2 @ Fram Larvik 1371 0
15 1949-08-14 27.85% Fram Larvik 1328 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1349 1
16 1949-09-18 27.90% Strommen 1299 2 @ Sandefjord 1320 1
17 1949-10-16 28.51% @ Fram Larvik 1363 2 Viking 1416 1
18 1949-08-21 29.69% @ Ranheim 1285 1 Sandefjord 1329 0
19 1949-10-09 30.09% Lyn Oslo 1313 3 @ Selbak 1318 2
20 1950-05-07 30.24% @ Strommen 1264 2 Sandefjord 1304 0
21 1950-05-10 30.33% Lyn Oslo 1363 1 @ Valerenga 1365 0
22 1949-09-04 30.89% @ Selbak 1299 2 Algard 1334 0
23 1950-05-28 32.48% Valerenga 1330 4 @ Selbak 1317 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-05-21 37.22 Viking 5 1393 34.34% @ Valerenga 0 1367 32.18% 33.48%
2 1949-09-04 34.05 @ Fredrikstad 8 1517 52.75% Orn-Horten 0 1377 15.80% 31.45%
3 1949-08-07 29.85 @ Sarpsborg 08 4 1364 34.89% Sandefjord 0 1371 31.62% 33.49%
4 1949-09-25 25.49 @ Orn-Horten 4 1354 41.61% Sandefjord 0 1311 25.17% 33.22%
5 1950-05-11 25.13 Sarpsborg 08 4 1443 42.21% @ Skeid 0 1359 24.76% 33.03%
6 1950-05-21 23.19 Strommen 3 1293 34.17% @ Ranheim 0 1268 32.35% 33.48%
7 1949-10-23 20.89 Orn-Horten 5 1388 42.31% @ Sandefjord 1 1304 24.67% 33.02%
8 1949-08-21 20.76 @ Fram Larvik 3 1344 39.15% Selbak 0 1320 27.47% 33.37%
9 1949-10-23 20.49 Lyn Oslo 2 1333 21.72% @ Viking 0 1407 45.45% 32.82%
10 1949-08-07 19.98 @ Fredrikstad 5 1480 54.83% Strommen 0 1319 14.29% 30.88%
11 1950-04-30 19.92 Sandefjord 3 1284 40.87% @ Mjondalen 0 1210 25.98% 33.16%
12 1950-05-14 19.50 @ Skeid 2 1334 24.23% Orn-Horten 0 1422 42.80% 32.97%
13 1949-08-14 19.15 @ Strommen 4 1299 35.19% Ranheim 1 1304 31.32% 33.49%
14 1949-10-09 18.72 @ Sandefjord 3 1285 43.14% Mjondalen 0 1230 23.78% 33.08%
15 1950-04-30 18.68 @ Orn-Horten 4 1409 51.37% Strommen 0 1282 16.85% 31.78%
16 1950-05-07 18.37 Lyn Oslo 2 1344 27.14% @ Fram Larvik 0 1371 39.50% 33.36%
17 1949-10-16 17.44 @ Sarpsborg 4 1398 39.30% Valerenga 1 1373 27.33% 33.37%
18 1950-05-07 17.28 @ Strommen 2 1264 30.24% Sandefjord 0 1304 36.33% 33.43%
19 1949-09-04 17.06 @ Selbak 2 1299 30.89% Algard 0 1334 35.66% 33.45%
20 1949-10-09 16.26 @ Storm 2 1300 33.30% Algard 0 1318 33.21% 33.49%
21 1949-08-14 15.69 Fram Larvik 3 1328 27.85% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1349 38.76% 33.39%
22 1949-08-07 15.30 Orn-Horten 2 1358 36.22% @ Ranheim 0 1319 30.35% 33.43%
23 1950-05-07 15.26 Skeid 2 1344 36.33% @ Ranheim 0 1304 30.24% 33.43%
24 1950-05-21 14.67 Sarpsborg 08 2 1455 38.10% @ Orn-Horten 0 1403 28.55% 33.35%
25 1949-08-07 14.38 @ Storm 4 1296 26.67% Lyn Oslo 2 1364 40.12% 33.22%