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1948-49 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Fredrikstad

22 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Fredrikstad

5.28 points above expected

22 points · 16.72 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

6.46 points below expected

4 points · 10.46 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 14 10 2 2 22 29 10 +19 16.72 +5.28
2 Valerenga 14 9 2 3 20 23 13 +10 16.46 +3.54
3 Sarpsborg 08 14 9 1 4 19 30 18 +12 17.42 +1.58
4 Sarpsborg 14 7 4 3 18 26 14 +12 16.93 +1.07
5 Viking 14 7 4 3 18 25 18 +7 14.24 +3.76
6 Algard 14 7 3 4 17 18 17 +1 14.33 +2.67
7 Lyn Oslo 14 5 6 3 16 19 17 +2 15.63 +0.37
8 Sandefjord 14 5 5 4 15 25 20 +5 14.26 +0.74
9 Skeid 14 7 0 7 14 34 25 +9 15.46 -1.46
10 Orn-Horten 14 6 2 6 14 25 23 +2 12.86 +1.14
11 Mjondalen 14 6 0 8 12 18 26 -8 11.34 +0.66
12 Storm 14 3 6 5 12 15 24 -9 11.35 +0.65
13 Freidig 14 3 3 8 9 15 27 -12 11.85 -2.85
14 Sandaker 14 3 2 9 8 22 31 -9 13.92 -5.92
15 Pors Grenland 14 1 4 9 6 11 34 -23 10.77 -4.77
16 Brann 14 1 2 11 4 25 43 -18 10.46 -6.46

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fredrikstad 6
Valerenga 1

Leg 1: Fredrikstad 3-0 Valerenga

Leg 2: Valerenga 1-3 Fredrikstad

Sim: 8.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Fredrikstad 1628 22 16.72 +5.28 97.2% 5 11 15 17 19 22 27
Viking 1515 18 14.24 +3.76 92.2% 4 9 12 14 16 19 27
Sarpsborg 1469 18 16.93 +1.07 69.4% 5 12 15 17 19 22 26
Sandefjord 1439 15 14.26 +0.74 65.5% 3 9 12 14 16 19 26
Lyn Oslo 1432 16 15.63 +0.37 61.0% 5 11 14 16 18 21 27
Sarpsborg 08 1431 19 17.42 +1.58 75.2% 6 12 15 17 19 22 27
Orn-Horten 1418 14 12.86 +1.14 70.7% 2 8 11 13 15 18 25
Valerenga 1418 20 16.46 +3.54 90.7% 3 11 14 17 19 21 28
Algard 1402 17 14.33 +2.67 84.1% 2 9 12 14 16 20 25
Skeid 1369 14 15.46 -1.46 37.5% 5 10 13 15 18 20 26
Sandaker 1329 8 13.92 -5.92 3.6% 3 9 12 14 16 19 25
Storm 1314 12 11.35 +0.65 65.5% 0 7 9 11 13 16 22
Brann 1267 4 10.46 -6.46 2.0% 0 6 8 10 12 15 21
Mjondalen 1262 12 11.34 +0.66 66.1% 2 7 9 11 13 16 23
Freidig 1232 9 11.85 -2.85 22.2% 1 7 10 12 14 17 24
Pors Grenland 1191 6 10.77 -4.77 7.4% 0 6 9 11 13 16 22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALG BRA FRE FRE LO MJO ORN PG SAN SAN SAR S0 SKE STO VAL VIK
Algard —
2-0-0
3.22
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.38
1-1-0
3.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.59
2-0-0
2.66
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.31
2-0-0
2.82
Brann
0-0-2
2.36
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.11
0-2-0
2.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.11
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-2
2.01
Fredrikstad
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
2-0-0
3.58
1-1-0
3.03
1-0-1
3.68
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
3.61
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.32
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Freidig
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.00
 —
0-2-0
2.20
0-0-2
3.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.88
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.73
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Lyn Oslo
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.54
0-2-0
3.38
 —
2-0-0
3.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.73
1-0-1
3.12
0-1-1
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.68
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Mjondalen
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.90
2-0-0
2.22
0-0-2
1.83
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.59
0-0-2
1.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Orn-Horten
1-1-0
2.20
2-0-0
3.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.95
0-1-1
2.73
Pors Grenland
0-1-1
2.42
0-2-0
2.72
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.60
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-2
2.48
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.82
0-1-1
1.10
Sandaker
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
3.49
0-0-2
2.85
1-0-1
2.66
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
2.08
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.63
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sandefjord
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.97
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.99
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.04
 —
0-2-0
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.55
2-0-0
3.69
1-1-0
2.86
2-0-0
4.07
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.49
0-2-0
3.07
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.20
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Sarpsborg 08
2-0-0
2.98
1-0-1
4.48
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.35
2-0-0
4.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-1
3.12
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.15
1-1-0
3.49
Skeid
0-0-2
2.91
2-0-0
3.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-0
3.09
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.46
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
3.59
Storm
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.25
0-1-1
2.84
0-2-0
1.90
1-0-1
3.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.94
0-2-0
2.21
1-0-1
1.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Valerenga
1-1-0
3.26
2-0-0
3.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-1
3.45
Viking
0-0-2
2.75
2-0-0
3.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.85
1-1-0
4.49
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.09
2-0-0
1.99
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.13
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.23 +4.1
Allowed 0.93 -5.9
Differential 0.88 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.46%6.70%7.59%3.12%0.45%0.89%23.21%
16.70%9.82%5.36%4.91%2.68%1.79%31.25%
27.59%5.36%5.36%3.12%1.34%0.45%23.21%
33.12%4.91%3.12%0.89%0.89%—12.95%
40.45%2.68%1.34%0.89%—0.45%5.80%
5+0.89%1.79%0.45%—0.45%—3.57%
Total23.21%31.25%23.21%12.95%5.80%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.61 +0.00
SD 1.43 1.43 2.10
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%——35.71%
114.29%7.14%————21.43%
2—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
3—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%42.86%28.57%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.21 +0.07
SD 1.20 0.89 1.54
CV 0.94 0.74 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
1—7.14%—14.29%—7.14%28.57%
2——7.14%21.43%14.29%—42.86%
37.14%———14.29%—21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%7.14%14.29%35.71%28.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 3.07 -1.29
SD 0.89 1.64 1.90
CV 0.50 0.53 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
121.43%7.14%14.29%———42.86%
214.29%—————14.29%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total50.00%28.57%21.43%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 0.71 +1.36
SD 1.49 0.83 1.60
CV 0.72 1.16 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%28.57%———42.86%
17.14%7.14%—7.14%7.14%—28.57%
2—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
3———————
4———————
5+————7.14%—7.14%
Total14.29%21.43%35.71%14.29%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.93 -0.86
SD 1.38 1.27 1.35
CV 1.29 0.66 —
Max 5 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—————21.43%
17.14%14.29%—7.14%7.14%7.14%42.86%
214.29%—7.14%———21.43%
3—7.14%————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total50.00%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.21 +0.14
SD 1.15 1.67 2.11
CV 0.85 1.38 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%28.57%7.14%—7.14%50.00%
1———————
27.14%14.29%—7.14%——28.57%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%28.57%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.86 -0.57
SD 1.44 1.75 2.77
CV 1.12 0.94 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
1——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
214.29%7.14%14.29%7.14%——42.86%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%42.86%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.64 +0.14
SD 1.31 1.08 1.75
CV 0.73 0.66 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%14.29%7.14%——35.71%
1—21.43%—7.14%7.14%14.29%50.00%
27.14%—7.14%———14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%35.71%21.43%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 2.43 -1.64
SD 0.70 2.10 2.21
CV 0.89 0.87 —
Max 2 8 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%7.14%—21.43%
1—7.14%21.43%7.14%7.14%—42.86%
2—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total7.14%21.43%35.71%14.29%21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 2.21 -0.64
SD 1.79 1.25 2.65
CV 1.14 0.57 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%—7.14%——28.57%
1—14.29%————14.29%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
4—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%50.00%7.14%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.43 +0.36
SD 1.48 1.40 1.69
CV 0.83 0.98 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%28.57%7.14%7.14%——50.00%
214.29%—————14.29%
37.14%—7.14%———14.29%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total28.57%50.00%14.29%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.00 +0.86
SD 1.41 0.88 1.75
CV 0.76 0.88 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
27.14%7.14%———7.14%21.43%
37.14%21.43%————28.57%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total21.43%57.14%7.14%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.29 +0.86
SD 1.46 1.33 2.18
CV 0.68 1.03 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
114.29%—21.43%7.14%——42.86%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3——14.29%———14.29%
4———————
5+—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
Total14.29%14.29%50.00%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.79 +0.64
SD 2.53 0.97 2.95
CV 1.04 0.55 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%——7.14%35.71%
17.14%7.14%—7.14%7.14%—28.57%
27.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
3———7.14%——7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%21.43%21.43%14.29%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.71 -0.64
SD 1.00 1.59 1.82
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
114.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
214.29%14.29%————28.57%
37.14%—————7.14%
4——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
5+———————
Total42.86%28.57%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.93 +0.71
SD 1.34 1.00 1.38
CV 0.81 1.07 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
17.14%21.43%—14.29%——42.86%
214.29%—7.14%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%14.29%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.29 +0.50
SD 1.12 1.14 1.51
CV 0.63 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Fredrikstad 22 16.72 +5.28
2 Viking 18 14.24 +3.76
3 Valerenga 20 16.46 +3.54
4 Algard 17 14.33 +2.67
5 Sarpsborg 08 19 17.42 +1.58

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 4 10.46 -6.46
2 Sandaker 8 13.92 -5.92
3 Pors Grenland 6 10.77 -4.77
4 Freidig 9 11.85 -2.85
5 Skeid 14 15.46 -1.46

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredrikstad 8 Oct 10 – May 22 1 in 145
2 Viking 3 May 8 – May 22 1 in 26
3 Valerenga 4 Aug 22 – Oct 10 1 in 26
4 Mjondalen 3 Aug 1 – Aug 22 1 in 23
5 Sarpsborg 08 4 Aug 1 – Sep 26 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Mjondalen 5 Oct 3 – Nov 5 1 in 121
2 Sandaker 3 Apr 28 – May 22 1 in 88
3 Brann 5 Aug 22 – Oct 17 1 in 56
4 Orn-Horten 5 Aug 1 – Sep 26 1 in 53
5 Skeid 4 May 8 – May 30 1 in 40

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 8 Oct 31 – May 29 1 in 59
2 Fredrikstad 11 Oct 3 – May 29 1 in 57
3 Sarpsborg 8 Aug 1 – Nov 5 1 in 25
4 Valerenga 9 Aug 22 – May 8 1 in 22
5 Storm 4 Aug 8 – Oct 10 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 13 Aug 1 – May 26 1 in 88
2 Storm 10 Aug 1 – May 8 1 in 31
3 Pors Grenland 11 Sep 12 – May 29 1 in 23
4 Sandaker 5 Apr 28 – May 29 1 in 23
5 Sarpsborg 3 May 22 – May 29 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Fredrikstad33.23%22.88%16.27%11.48%7.45%4.46%2.94%1.29%
Valerenga25.86%22.75%18.32%13.47%9.01%5.89%3.29%1.41%
Sarpsborg 0838.36%24.03%15.00%10.25%6.47%3.45%1.84%0.60%
Sarpsborg32.03%25.44%16.45%11.09%7.61%4.27%2.23%0.88%
Viking7.85%12.67%15.40%18.74%16.81%14.26%9.34%4.93%
Algard7.68%12.01%15.47%16.54%17.13%14.47%10.96%5.74%
Lyn Oslo15.54%19.16%20.61%16.61%12.75%8.05%5.06%2.22%
Sandefjord8.82%13.46%16.07%17.38%16.14%13.14%9.35%5.64%
Skeid15.72%18.77%19.59%15.87%12.64%9.71%5.54%2.16%
Orn-Horten3.52%6.49%9.97%13.64%17.74%20.28%16.93%11.43%
Mjondalen1.17%2.81%5.42%8.07%12.45%18.28%23.16%28.64%
Storm1.22%2.96%4.98%8.74%12.75%17.49%23.32%28.54%
Freidig1.68%3.54%6.53%10.08%13.31%18.18%21.86%24.82%
Sandaker6.31%9.75%13.67%16.55%17.54%16.13%12.08%7.97%
Pors Grenland0.49%1.67%3.30%5.99%10.60%16.57%25.82%35.56%
Brann0.52%1.61%2.95%5.50%9.60%15.37%26.28%38.17%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.54%
Clear Edge
50.00%20.54%29.46%
Elo Value
Home Edge
198 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
072.38500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.55 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.37+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.0
Wide Open
124611
Champion Preseason Odds
33%
Fredrikstad, 2nd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.43 * Some Luck: 2.43 to 3.64 * Lucky: 3.64 to 4.86 * Wild Swing: 4.86 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.56 * Close: 2.56 to 3.84 * Off: 3.84 to 5.13 * Way Off: 5.13 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.33 points
Some Luck
03.048
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.75
Pinpoint
03.208
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
97.20%
Fredrikstad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
2.05%
Brann
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.39
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.061
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Fredrikstad — —
Valerenga — —
Sarpsborg 08 59.20% 2.44%
Sarpsborg 64.86% 3.11%
Lyn Oslo 77.18% 7.28%
Skeid 76.58% 7.70%
Viking 77.88% 14.27%
Sandefjord 76.19% 14.99%
Algard 75.62% 16.70%
Sandaker 73.64% 20.05%
Orn-Horten 68.12% 28.36%
Freidig 51.64% 46.68%
Mjondalen 47.03% 51.80%
Storm 46.92% 51.86%
Pors Grenland 38.13% 61.38%
Brann 35.03% 64.45%
Loser →
↓ Winner
AlgardBrannFredrikstadFreidigLyn OsloMjondalenOrn-HortenSandakerSandefjordSarpsborgSarpsborg 08SkeidStormValerengaViking
Algard100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Brann100.0%1.00%
Fredrikstad0.0%3.00%85.7%14.00%100.0%2.00%80.0%10.00%25.0%4.00%
Freidig0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Lyn Oslo0.0%1.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%6.00%
Mjondalen0.0%1.00%
Orn-Horten0.0%2.00%
Sandaker100.0%2.00%80.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%
Sandefjord0.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Sarpsborg100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%58.3%12.00%57.1%7.00%66.7%12.00%
Sarpsborg 0814.3%14.00%40.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%60.0%5.00%41.7%12.00%
Skeid0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%42.9%7.00%
Storm0.0%1.00%
Valerenga20.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%6.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%12.00%100.0%1.00%
Viking75.0%4.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Finals
Fredrikstad 65.65%
Valerenga 34.35%
Loser →
↓ Winner
FredrikstadValerenga
Fredrikstad65.6%100.00%
Valerenga34.4%100.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1948-08-01 Storm W 5-0 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% +58.5 2
1948-08-01 @ Fredrikstad L 0-5 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% -58.5 0
1948-08-01 Mjondalen L 0-2 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% -46.2 0
1948-08-01 @ Freidig W 2-0 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% +46.2 2
1948-08-01 Sandaker W 4-0 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% +47.5 2
1948-08-01 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-4 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% -47.5 0
1948-08-01 Skeid L 0-1 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% -24.5 0
1948-08-01 @ Pors Grenland W 1-0 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% +24.5 2
1948-08-01 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% -2.9 1
1948-08-01 @ Sandefjord D 1-1 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% +2.9 1
1948-08-01 Orn-Horten W 4-1 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% +30.7 2
1948-08-01 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-4 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% -30.7 0
1948-08-01 Brann W 4-3 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% +11.6 2
1948-08-01 @ Valerenga L 3-4 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% -11.6 0
1948-08-01 Algard L 1-3 1382 1382 53.3% 21.3% 25.4% -40.0 0
1948-08-01 @ Viking W 3-1 1382 1382 25.4% 21.3% 53.3% +40.0 2
1948-08-08 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-2 1422 1413 54.3% 21.3% 24.3% -47.1 2
1948-08-08 @ Algard W 2-0 1413 1422 24.3% 21.3% 54.3% +47.1 4
1948-08-08 Pors Grenland D 2-2 1371 1358 54.7% 21.3% 23.9% -2.4 1
1948-08-08 @ Brann D 2-2 1358 1371 23.9% 21.3% 54.7% +2.4 1
1948-08-08 Sandefjord W 3-0 1429 1380 58.5% 21.2% 20.2% +30.0 4
1948-08-08 @ Mjondalen L 0-3 1380 1429 20.2% 21.2% 58.5% -30.0 1
1948-08-08 Viking L 0-1 1352 1342 54.3% 21.3% 24.3% -25.0 0
1948-08-08 @ Orn-Horten W 1-0 1342 1352 24.3% 21.3% 54.3% +25.0 2
1948-08-08 Fredrikstad W 2-1 1335 1441 39.4% 21.4% 39.2% +17.8 2
1948-08-08 @ Sandaker L 1-2 1441 1335 39.2% 21.4% 39.4% -17.8 2
1948-08-08 Freidig W 1-0 1385 1336 58.5% 21.2% 20.2% +11.0 3
1948-08-08 @ Sarpsborg L 0-1 1336 1385 20.2% 21.2% 58.5% -11.0 0
1948-08-08 Valerenga W 1-0 1407 1394 54.7% 21.3% 23.9% +12.6 4
1948-08-08 @ Skeid L 0-1 1394 1407 23.9% 21.3% 54.7% -12.6 2
1948-08-08 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1324 1430 39.4% 21.4% 39.2% -0.0 1
1948-08-08 @ Storm D 0-0 1430 1324 39.2% 21.4% 39.4% +0.0 3
1948-08-22 Mjondalen L 1-2 1423 1459 49.0% 21.4% 29.6% -21.4 2
1948-08-22 @ Fredrikstad W 2-1 1459 1423 29.6% 21.4% 49.0% +21.4 6
1948-08-22 Storm D 1-1 1325 1324 53.4% 21.3% 25.2% -2.9 1
1948-08-22 @ Freidig D 1-1 1324 1325 25.2% 21.3% 53.4% +2.9 2
1948-08-22 Sarpsborg D 1-1 1430 1396 57.0% 21.3% 21.8% -3.7 4
1948-08-22 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1396 1430 21.8% 21.3% 57.0% +3.7 4
1948-08-22 Orn-Horten W 2-0 1360 1327 56.9% 21.3% 21.8% +22.0 3
1948-08-22 @ Pors Grenland L 0-2 1327 1360 21.8% 21.3% 56.9% -22.0 0
1948-08-22 Sandaker W 4-1 1350 1353 52.9% 21.3% 25.8% +31.0 3
1948-08-22 @ Sandefjord L 1-4 1353 1350 25.8% 21.3% 52.9% -31.0 2
1948-08-22 Skeid W 3-1 1460 1420 57.7% 21.3% 21.1% +18.5 6
1948-08-22 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1420 1460 21.1% 21.3% 57.7% -18.5 4
1948-08-22 Algard W 3-0 1381 1375 53.9% 21.3% 24.7% +35.5 4
1948-08-22 @ Valerenga L 0-3 1375 1381 24.7% 21.3% 53.9% -35.5 2
1948-08-22 Brann W 4-3 1367 1368 53.1% 21.3% 25.5% +11.6 4
1948-08-22 @ Viking L 3-4 1368 1367 25.5% 21.3% 53.1% -11.6 1
1948-09-12 Pors Grenland W 1-0 1340 1382 48.1% 21.4% 30.5% +15.5 4
1948-09-12 @ Algard L 0-1 1382 1340 30.5% 21.4% 48.1% -15.5 3
1948-09-12 Valerenga L 0-1 1305 1417 38.5% 21.4% 40.1% -18.6 0
1948-09-12 @ Orn-Horten W 1-0 1417 1305 40.1% 21.4% 38.5% +18.6 6
1948-09-12 Sandefjord D 3-3 1327 1381 46.6% 21.4% 32.0% -0.9 3
1948-09-12 @ Storm D 3-3 1381 1327 32.0% 21.4% 46.6% +0.9 4
1948-09-26 Sarpsborg L 0-3 1322 1400 43.3% 21.4% 35.3% -56.0 2
1948-09-26 @ Sandaker W 3-0 1400 1322 35.3% 21.4% 43.3% +56.0 6
1948-09-26 Algard L 1-3 1357 1355 53.4% 21.3% 25.2% -40.2 1
1948-09-26 @ Brann W 3-1 1355 1357 25.2% 21.3% 53.4% +40.2 6
1948-09-26 Pors Grenland W 5-1 1479 1367 64.1% 21.0% 14.9% +25.0 8
1948-09-26 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-5 1367 1479 14.9% 21.0% 64.1% -24.9 3
1948-09-26 Orn-Horten W 3-2 1401 1286 64.3% 21.0% 14.7% +7.4 6
1948-09-26 @ Skeid L 2-3 1286 1401 14.7% 21.0% 64.3% -7.4 0
1948-09-26 Lyn Oslo W 3-1 1381 1426 47.8% 21.4% 30.8% +25.4 6
1948-09-26 @ Sandefjord L 1-3 1426 1381 30.8% 21.4% 47.8% -25.4 4
1948-10-03 Fredrikstad D 1-1 1401 1402 53.1% 21.3% 25.5% -2.9 5
1948-10-03 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-1 1402 1401 25.5% 21.3% 53.1% +2.9 3
1948-10-03 Sandaker L 0-7 1480 1266 70.7% 20.5% 8.8% -197.9 6
1948-10-03 @ Mjondalen W 7-0 1266 1480 8.8% 20.5% 70.7% +197.9 4
1948-10-03 Freidig L 4-5 1407 1322 61.8% 21.1% 17.0% -24.4 6
1948-10-03 @ Sandefjord W 5-4 1322 1407 17.0% 21.1% 61.8% +24.4 3
1948-10-03 Skeid W 2-1 1395 1408 51.7% 21.4% 26.9% +13.1 8
1948-10-03 @ Algard L 1-2 1408 1395 26.9% 21.4% 51.7% -13.1 6
1948-10-03 Brann W 4-2 1279 1317 48.7% 21.4% 29.9% +22.2 2
1948-10-03 @ Orn-Horten L 2-4 1317 1279 29.9% 21.4% 48.7% -22.2 1
1948-10-03 Sarpsborg 08 W 1-0 1435 1504 44.7% 21.4% 33.9% +16.8 8
1948-10-03 @ Valerenga L 0-1 1504 1435 33.9% 21.4% 44.7% -16.8 8
1948-10-10 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1347 1405 46.1% 21.4% 32.6% -35.2 3
1948-10-10 @ Freidig W 3-1 1405 1347 32.6% 21.4% 46.1% +35.2 5
1948-10-10 Sarpsborg L 2-3 1282 1456 30.2% 21.3% 48.5% -13.7 6
1948-10-10 @ Mjondalen W 3-2 1456 1282 48.5% 21.3% 30.2% +13.7 8
1948-10-10 Storm D 2-2 1464 1326 66.0% 20.9% 13.1% -4.4 5
1948-10-10 @ Sandaker D 2-2 1326 1464 13.1% 20.9% 66.0% +4.4 4
1948-10-10 Skeid L 2-3 1294 1395 40.1% 21.4% 38.5% -17.2 1
1948-10-10 @ Brann W 3-2 1395 1294 38.5% 21.4% 40.1% +17.2 8
1948-10-10 Algard W 2-0 1301 1409 39.2% 21.4% 39.4% +35.7 4
1948-10-10 @ Orn-Horten L 0-2 1409 1301 39.4% 21.4% 39.2% -35.7 8
1948-10-10 Valerenga L 0-2 1342 1452 38.8% 21.4% 39.9% -35.2 3
1948-10-10 @ Pors Grenland W 2-0 1452 1342 39.9% 21.4% 38.8% +35.2 10
1948-10-10 Viking W 3-1 1487 1379 63.8% 21.1% 15.2% +13.9 10
1948-10-10 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1379 1487 15.2% 21.1% 63.8% -13.9 4
1948-10-16 Mjondalen W 2-0 1398 1268 65.4% 21.0% 13.6% +14.6 7
1948-10-16 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1268 1398 13.6% 21.0% 65.4% -14.6 6
1948-10-17 Valerenga D 0-0 1373 1488 38.1% 21.4% 40.5% +0.2 9
1948-10-17 @ Algard D 0-0 1488 1373 40.5% 21.4% 38.1% -0.2 11
1948-10-17 Brann W 3-1 1501 1277 71.2% 20.5% 8.4% +8.0 12
1948-10-17 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-3 1277 1501 8.4% 20.5% 71.2% -8.0 1
1948-10-17 Pors Grenland W 8-1 1412 1307 63.6% 21.1% 15.3% +42.9 10
1948-10-17 @ Skeid L 1-8 1307 1412 15.3% 21.1% 63.6% -42.9 3
1948-10-17 Orn-Horten D 2-2 1365 1337 56.4% 21.3% 22.3% -2.7 5
1948-10-17 @ Viking D 2-2 1337 1365 22.3% 21.3% 56.4% +2.7 5
1948-10-17 Freidig L 0-1 1330 1312 55.4% 21.3% 23.3% -25.4 4
1948-10-17 @ Storm W 1-0 1312 1330 23.3% 21.3% 55.4% +25.4 5
1948-10-24 Sandaker W 2-1 1337 1459 37.1% 21.4% 41.5% +18.6 7
1948-10-24 @ Freidig L 1-2 1459 1337 41.5% 21.4% 37.1% -18.6 5
1948-10-24 Fredrikstad L 0-2 1305 1440 35.3% 21.4% 43.3% -32.7 4
1948-10-24 @ Storm W 2-0 1440 1305 43.3% 21.4% 35.3% +32.7 7
1948-10-24 Viking W 1-0 1373 1362 54.5% 21.3% 24.2% +12.8 11
1948-10-24 @ Algard L 0-1 1362 1373 24.2% 21.3% 54.5% -12.8 5
1948-10-24 Brann D 1-1 1264 1269 52.6% 21.4% 26.0% -2.8 4
1948-10-24 @ Pors Grenland D 1-1 1269 1264 26.0% 21.4% 52.6% +2.8 2
1948-10-24 Mjondalen W 3-0 1382 1254 65.3% 21.0% 13.7% +21.2 8
1948-10-24 @ Sandefjord L 0-3 1254 1382 13.7% 21.0% 65.3% -21.2 6
1948-10-24 Sarpsborg 08 W 5-2 1455 1509 46.7% 21.4% 31.9% +32.1 12
1948-10-24 @ Skeid L 2-5 1509 1455 31.9% 21.4% 46.7% -32.0 12
1948-10-24 Orn-Horten W 2-1 1487 1339 66.7% 20.9% 12.4% +6.7 13
1948-10-24 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1339 1487 12.4% 20.9% 66.7% -6.7 5
1948-10-24 Lyn Oslo W 5-1 1470 1412 59.3% 21.2% 19.5% +31.6 10
1948-10-24 @ Sarpsborg L 1-5 1412 1470 19.5% 21.2% 59.3% -31.6 7
1948-10-31 Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1356 1381 50.2% 21.4% 28.4% -2.5 8
1948-10-31 @ Freidig D 0-0 1381 1356 28.4% 21.4% 50.2% +2.5 8
1948-10-31 Viking L 2-3 1487 1350 66.0% 20.9% 13.1% -27.2 12
1948-10-31 @ Skeid W 3-2 1350 1487 13.1% 20.9% 66.0% +27.2 7
1948-10-31 Sandefjord D 1-1 1501 1404 62.9% 21.1% 16.0% -5.2 11
1948-10-31 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1404 1501 16.0% 21.1% 62.9% +5.1 9
1948-10-31 Sandaker W 4-2 1472 1441 56.8% 21.3% 21.9% +17.2 9
1948-10-31 @ Fredrikstad L 2-4 1441 1472 21.9% 21.3% 56.8% -17.1 5
1948-11-05 Sandefjord W 1-0 1490 1409 61.5% 21.1% 17.4% +9.6 11
1948-11-05 @ Fredrikstad L 0-1 1409 1490 17.4% 21.1% 61.5% -9.6 9
1948-11-05 Storm W 4-1 1496 1272 71.2% 20.5% 8.3% +11.3 13
1948-11-05 @ Sarpsborg L 1-4 1272 1496 8.3% 20.5% 71.2% -11.3 4
1948-11-05 Valerenga D 1-1 1377 1494 37.8% 21.4% 40.8% +0.3 8
1948-11-05 @ Viking D 1-1 1494 1377 40.8% 21.4% 37.8% -0.3 14
1948-11-05 Lyn Oslo L 0-2 1233 1383 33.2% 21.3% 45.5% -31.1 6
1948-11-05 @ Mjondalen W 2-0 1383 1233 45.5% 21.3% 33.2% +31.1 10
1948-11-05 Freidig W 3-2 1423 1353 60.6% 21.2% 18.3% +9.0 7
1948-11-05 @ Sandaker L 2-3 1353 1423 18.3% 21.2% 60.6% -9.0 8
1949-04-28 Lyn Oslo L 1-3 1432 1414 55.3% 21.3% 23.4% -41.5 7
1949-04-28 @ Sandaker W 3-1 1414 1432 23.4% 21.3% 55.3% +41.5 12
1949-04-30 Orn-Horten D 2-2 1386 1333 58.9% 21.2% 19.9% -3.1 12
1949-04-30 @ Algard D 2-2 1333 1386 19.9% 21.2% 58.9% +3.1 6
1949-04-30 Sarpsborg W 3-1 1499 1507 52.3% 21.4% 26.3% +22.3 13
1949-04-30 @ Fredrikstad L 1-3 1507 1499 26.3% 21.4% 52.3% -22.3 13
1949-05-01 Freidig W 4-1 1202 1344 34.3% 21.3% 44.4% +48.2 8
1949-05-01 @ Mjondalen L 1-4 1344 1202 44.4% 21.3% 34.3% -48.1 8
1949-05-01 Brann W 7-1 1460 1272 69.2% 20.7% 10.1% +25.3 14
1949-05-01 @ Skeid L 1-7 1272 1460 10.1% 20.7% 69.2% -25.3 2
1949-05-01 Pors Grenland W 2-0 1494 1261 71.6% 20.4% 8.0% +8.8 16
1949-05-01 @ Valerenga L 0-2 1261 1494 8.0% 20.4% 71.6% -8.8 4
1949-05-01 Sarpsborg 08 D 1-1 1377 1477 40.3% 21.4% 38.3% -0.2 9
1949-05-01 @ Viking D 1-1 1477 1377 38.3% 21.4% 40.3% +0.2 13
1949-05-01 Storm D 2-2 1399 1261 66.1% 20.9% 13.0% -4.4 10
1949-05-01 @ Sandefjord D 2-2 1261 1399 13.0% 20.9% 66.1% +4.4 5
1949-05-08 Sarpsborg L 0-2 1296 1485 28.3% 21.2% 50.4% -27.3 8
1949-05-08 @ Freidig W 2-0 1485 1296 50.4% 21.2% 28.3% +27.3 15
1949-05-08 Storm D 0-0 1456 1265 69.4% 20.7% 9.9% -7.6 13
1949-05-08 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-0 1265 1456 9.9% 20.7% 69.4% +7.6 6
1949-05-08 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1250 1522 19.4% 21.0% 59.6% -10.5 8
1949-05-08 @ Mjondalen W 1-0 1522 1250 59.6% 21.0% 19.4% +10.5 15
1949-05-08 Valerenga L 2-4 1247 1503 21.0% 21.0% 58.0% -16.4 2
1949-05-08 @ Brann W 4-2 1503 1247 58.0% 21.0% 21.0% +16.4 18
1949-05-08 Sarpsborg 08 W 2-1 1336 1477 34.5% 21.3% 44.2% +19.6 8
1949-05-08 @ Orn-Horten L 1-2 1477 1336 44.2% 21.3% 34.5% -19.6 13
1949-05-08 Algard D 1-1 1252 1383 35.9% 21.4% 42.7% +0.7 5
1949-05-08 @ Pors Grenland D 1-1 1383 1252 42.7% 21.4% 35.9% -0.7 13
1949-05-08 Skeid W 3-0 1377 1486 39.0% 21.4% 39.6% +52.1 11
1949-05-08 @ Viking L 0-3 1486 1377 39.6% 21.4% 39.0% -52.1 14
1949-05-15 Freidig W 2-0 1532 1269 73.0% 20.2% 6.8% +7.6 17
1949-05-15 @ Fredrikstad L 0-2 1269 1532 6.8% 20.2% 73.0% -7.6 8
1949-05-15 Sandefjord W 1-0 1448 1395 59.0% 21.2% 19.8% +10.8 15
1949-05-15 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-1 1395 1448 19.8% 21.2% 59.0% -10.8 10
1949-05-15 Mjondalen W 2-0 1512 1239 73.4% 20.2% 6.4% +7.2 17
1949-05-15 @ Sarpsborg L 0-2 1239 1512 6.4% 20.2% 73.4% -7.2 8
1949-05-15 Sandaker W 1-0 1273 1391 37.7% 21.4% 41.0% +19.5 8
1949-05-15 @ Storm L 0-1 1391 1273 41.0% 21.4% 37.7% -19.5 7
1949-05-15 Viking L 0-2 1230 1429 27.2% 21.2% 51.6% -26.4 2
1949-05-15 @ Brann W 2-0 1429 1230 51.6% 21.2% 27.2% +26.4 13
1949-05-15 Pors Grenland W 4-1 1355 1253 63.3% 21.1% 15.6% +20.1 10
1949-05-15 @ Orn-Horten L 1-4 1253 1355 15.6% 21.1% 63.3% -20.1 5
1949-05-15 Algard W 1-0 1457 1382 61.0% 21.2% 17.8% +9.8 15
1949-05-15 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 0-1 1382 1457 17.8% 21.2% 61.0% -9.8 13
1949-05-22 Lyn Oslo W 4-1 1540 1459 61.5% 21.1% 17.4% +22.2 19
1949-05-22 @ Fredrikstad L 1-4 1459 1540 17.4% 21.1% 61.5% -22.2 15
1949-05-22 Sandefjord L 0-2 1261 1384 37.0% 21.4% 41.6% -34.0 8
1949-05-22 @ Freidig W 2-0 1384 1261 41.6% 21.4% 37.0% +34.0 12
1949-05-22 Mjondalen L 1-2 1371 1232 66.1% 20.9% 12.9% -28.7 7
1949-05-22 @ Sandaker W 2-1 1232 1371 12.9% 20.9% 66.1% +28.7 10
1949-05-22 Sarpsborg W 2-1 1292 1520 23.9% 21.1% 54.9% +23.8 10
1949-05-22 @ Storm L 1-2 1520 1292 54.9% 21.1% 23.9% -23.8 17
1949-05-22 Brann W 3-2 1372 1204 68.0% 20.8% 11.2% +5.8 15
1949-05-22 @ Algard L 2-3 1204 1372 11.2% 20.8% 68.0% -5.8 2
1949-05-22 Skeid W 2-0 1376 1433 46.1% 21.4% 32.5% +30.7 12
1949-05-22 @ Orn-Horten L 0-2 1433 1376 32.5% 21.4% 46.1% -30.7 14
1949-05-22 Sarpsborg 08 L 0-3 1233 1467 23.1% 21.1% 55.8% -33.5 5
1949-05-22 @ Pors Grenland W 3-0 1467 1233 55.8% 21.1% 23.1% +33.5 17
1949-05-22 Viking L 0-2 1519 1455 59.9% 21.2% 18.9% -51.8 18
1949-05-22 @ Valerenga W 2-0 1455 1519 18.9% 21.2% 59.9% +51.8 15
1949-05-26 Storm W 3-1 1261 1316 46.4% 21.4% 32.2% +26.4 12
1949-05-26 @ Mjondalen L 1-3 1316 1261 32.2% 21.4% 46.4% -26.3 10
1949-05-26 Orn-Horten L 2-3 1198 1406 26.1% 21.2% 52.8% -12.1 2
1949-05-26 @ Brann W 3-2 1406 1198 52.8% 21.2% 26.1% +12.1 14
1949-05-26 Fredrikstad D 0-0 1418 1562 34.1% 21.3% 44.5% +1.2 13
1949-05-26 @ Sandefjord D 0-0 1562 1418 44.5% 21.3% 34.1% -1.2 20
1949-05-26 Sandaker D 1-1 1496 1343 67.1% 20.9% 12.1% -6.2 18
1949-05-26 @ Sarpsborg D 1-1 1343 1496 12.1% 20.9% 67.1% +6.2 8
1949-05-26 Valerenga W 2-1 1501 1467 56.9% 21.3% 21.8% +11.0 19
1949-05-26 @ Sarpsborg 08 L 1-2 1467 1501 21.8% 21.3% 56.9% -11.0 18
1949-05-26 Algard L 1-2 1403 1378 56.0% 21.3% 22.7% -24.2 14
1949-05-26 @ Skeid W 2-1 1378 1403 22.7% 21.3% 56.0% +24.2 17
1949-05-26 Pors Grenland D 1-1 1507 1199 74.8% 19.9% 5.3% -8.1 16
1949-05-26 @ Viking D 1-1 1199 1507 5.3% 19.9% 74.8% +8.1 6
1949-05-29 Sarpsborg 08 W 3-0 1186 1512 14.9% 20.7% 64.3% +80.7 4
1949-05-29 @ Brann L 0-3 1512 1186 64.3% 20.7% 14.9% -80.7 19
1949-05-29 Viking L 1-3 1207 1499 17.7% 20.9% 61.5% -15.8 6
1949-05-29 @ Pors Grenland W 3-1 1499 1207 61.5% 20.9% 17.7% +15.8 18
1949-05-29 Fredrikstad L 0-1 1490 1561 44.3% 21.4% 34.3% -20.8 18
1949-05-29 @ Sarpsborg W 1-0 1561 1490 34.3% 21.4% 44.3% +20.8 22
1949-05-29 Sandefjord L 1-2 1349 1419 44.4% 21.4% 34.2% -19.7 8
1949-05-29 @ Sandaker W 2-1 1419 1349 34.2% 21.4% 44.4% +19.7 15
1949-05-29 Freidig D 2-2 1437 1227 70.4% 20.6% 9.0% -5.2 16
1949-05-29 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-2 1227 1437 9.0% 20.6% 70.4% +5.2 9
1949-05-29 Mjondalen W 2-0 1290 1287 53.6% 21.3% 25.1% +24.8 12
1949-05-29 @ Storm L 0-2 1287 1290 25.1% 21.3% 53.6% -24.8 12
1949-05-30 Skeid W 2-1 1456 1379 61.2% 21.2% 17.6% +9.2 20
1949-05-30 @ Valerenga L 1-2 1379 1456 17.6% 21.2% 61.2% -9.2 14

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1949-06-06 Fredrikstad L 1-3 1465 1582 37.9% 21.4% 40.7% -30.0 0-1
1949-06-06 @ Valerenga W 3-1 1582 1465 40.7% 21.4% 37.9% +30.0 1-0
1949-06-12 Valerenga W 3-0 1612 1435 68.5% 20.8% 10.7% +17.0 2-0
1949-06-12 @ Fredrikstad L 0-3 1435 1612 10.7% 20.8% 68.5% -17.0 0-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1948-10-03 8.79% Sandaker 1266 7 @ Mjondalen 1480 0
2 1949-05-22 12.94% Mjondalen 1232 2 @ Sandaker 1371 1
3 1948-10-31 13.06% Viking 1350 3 @ Skeid 1487 2
4 1949-05-29 14.95% @ Brann 1186 3 Sarpsborg 08 1512 0
5 1948-10-03 17.04% Freidig 1322 5 @ Sandefjord 1407 4
6 1949-05-22 18.88% Viking 1455 2 @ Valerenga 1519 0
7 1949-05-26 22.68% Algard 1378 2 @ Skeid 1403 1
8 1948-10-17 23.32% Freidig 1312 1 @ Storm 1330 0
9 1949-04-28 23.41% Lyn Oslo 1414 3 @ Sandaker 1432 1
10 1949-05-22 23.91% @ Storm 1292 2 Sarpsborg 1520 1
11 1948-08-08 24.34% Sarpsborg 08 1413 2 @ Algard 1422 0
12 1948-08-08 24.34% Viking 1342 1 @ Orn-Horten 1352 0
13 1948-09-26 25.22% Algard 1355 3 @ Brann 1357 1
14 1948-08-01 25.39% Mjondalen 1382 2 @ Freidig 1382 0
15 1948-08-01 25.39% Skeid 1382 1 @ Pors Grenland 1382 0
16 1948-08-01 25.39% Algard 1382 3 @ Viking 1382 1
17 1948-08-22 29.65% Mjondalen 1459 2 @ Fredrikstad 1423 1
18 1948-10-10 32.55% Fredrikstad 1405 3 @ Freidig 1347 1
19 1949-05-29 34.20% Sandefjord 1419 2 @ Sandaker 1349 1
20 1949-05-01 34.28% @ Mjondalen 1202 4 Freidig 1344 1
21 1949-05-29 34.31% Fredrikstad 1561 1 @ Sarpsborg 1490 0
22 1949-05-08 34.49% @ Orn-Horten 1336 2 Sarpsborg 08 1477 1
23 1948-09-26 35.31% Sarpsborg 1400 3 @ Sandaker 1322 0
24 1948-10-24 37.08% @ Freidig 1337 2 Sandaker 1459 1
25 1949-05-15 37.66% @ Storm 1273 1 Sandaker 1391 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1948-10-03 197.93 Sandaker 7 1266 8.79% @ Mjondalen 0 1480 70.68% 20.53%
2 1949-05-29 80.65 @ Brann 3 1186 14.95% Sarpsborg 08 0 1512 64.34% 20.71%
3 1948-08-01 58.54 @ Fredrikstad 5 1382 53.26% Storm 0 1382 25.39% 21.35%
4 1948-09-26 55.96 Sarpsborg 3 1400 35.31% @ Sandaker 0 1322 43.29% 21.40%
5 1949-05-08 52.06 @ Viking 3 1377 39.01% Skeid 0 1486 39.60% 21.39%
6 1949-05-22 51.82 Viking 2 1455 18.88% @ Valerenga 0 1519 59.92% 21.21%
7 1949-05-01 48.15 @ Mjondalen 4 1202 34.28% Freidig 1 1344 44.38% 21.35%
8 1948-08-01 47.49 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1382 53.26% Sandaker 0 1382 25.39% 21.35%
9 1948-08-08 47.10 Sarpsborg 08 2 1413 24.34% @ Algard 0 1422 54.33% 21.33%
10 1948-08-01 46.24 Mjondalen 2 1382 25.39% @ Freidig 0 1382 53.26% 21.35%
11 1948-10-17 42.88 @ Skeid 8 1412 63.60% Pors Grenland 1 1307 15.34% 21.06%
12 1949-04-28 41.47 Lyn Oslo 3 1414 23.41% @ Sandaker 1 1432 55.27% 21.32%
13 1948-09-26 40.17 Algard 3 1355 25.22% @ Brann 1 1357 53.44% 21.34%
14 1948-08-01 40.04 Algard 3 1382 25.39% @ Viking 1 1382 53.26% 21.35%
15 1948-10-10 35.73 @ Orn-Horten 2 1301 39.17% Algard 0 1409 39.44% 21.39%
16 1948-08-22 35.55 @ Valerenga 3 1381 53.95% Algard 0 1375 24.72% 21.34%
17 1948-10-10 35.24 Valerenga 2 1452 39.85% @ Pors Grenland 0 1342 38.76% 21.39%
18 1948-10-10 35.16 Fredrikstad 3 1405 32.55% @ Freidig 1 1347 46.05% 21.40%
19 1949-05-22 33.95 Sandefjord 2 1384 41.65% @ Freidig 0 1261 36.98% 21.37%
20 1949-05-22 33.53 Sarpsborg 08 3 1467 55.75% @ Pors Grenland 0 1233 23.14% 21.11%
21 1948-10-24 32.74 Fredrikstad 2 1440 43.32% @ Storm 0 1305 35.33% 21.36%
22 1948-10-24 32.05 @ Skeid 5 1455 46.65% Sarpsborg 08 2 1509 31.95% 21.40%
23 1948-10-24 31.59 @ Sarpsborg 5 1470 59.31% Lyn Oslo 1 1412 19.47% 21.22%
24 1948-11-05 31.14 Lyn Oslo 2 1383 45.48% @ Mjondalen 0 1233 33.19% 21.33%
25 1948-08-22 31.03 @ Sandefjord 4 1350 52.89% Sandaker 1 1353 25.76% 21.35%