2024 NFL Season

272 regular-season games · 14 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2017

Runner-Up

Kansas City Chiefs

7th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2023

Biggest Overachiever

Detroit Lions

3.36 wins above expected

15 wins · 11.64 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

San Francisco 49ers

3.43 wins below expected

6 wins · 9.43 expected wins

League Changes

None
None 2

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	13	4	.765	-	525	368	+157	11.91	+1.09
2	Miami Dolphins	8	9	.471	5	345	364	-19	8.32	-0.32
3	New York Jets	5	12	.294	8	338	404	-66	6.75	-1.75
4	New England Patriots	4	13	.235	9	289	417	-128	5.59	-1.59

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	12	5	.706	-	518	361	+157	10.85	+1.15
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	10	7	.588	2	380	347	+33	9.84	+0.16
3	Cincinnati Bengals	9	8	.529	3	472	434	+38	8.53	+0.47
4	Cleveland Browns	3	14	.176	9	258	435	-177	5.17	-2.17

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	10	7	.588	-	372	372	0	9.06	+0.94
2	Indianapolis Colts	8	9	.471	2	377	427	-50	8.10	-0.10
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	13	.235	6	320	435	-115	6.86	-2.86
4	Tennessee Titans	3	14	.176	7	311	460	-149	5.97	-2.97

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	15	2	.882	-	385	326	+59	12.17	+2.83
2	Los Angeles Chargers Playoffs	11	6	.647	4	402	301	+101	9.87	+1.13
3	Denver Broncos Playoffs	10	7	.588	5	425	311	+114	9.12	+0.88
4	Las Vegas Raiders	4	13	.235	11	309	434	-125	5.62	-1.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	14	3	.824	-	463	303	+160	11.30	+2.70
2	Washington Commanders Playoffs	12	5	.706	2	485	391	+94	9.50	+2.50
3	Dallas Cowboys	7	10	.412	7	350	468	-118	7.33	-0.33
4	New York Giants	3	14	.176	11	273	415	-142	5.60	-2.60

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	15	2	.882	-	564	342	+222	11.64	+3.36
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	14	3	.824	1	432	332	+100	11.01	+2.99
3	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	11	6	.647	4	460	338	+122	10.36	+0.64
4	Chicago Bears	5	12	.294	10	310	370	-60	6.73	-1.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	10	7	.588	-	502	385	+117	10.09	-0.09
2	Atlanta Falcons	8	9	.471	2	389	423	-34	8.09	-0.09
3	New Orleans Saints	5	12	.294	5	338	398	-60	8.40	-3.40
4	Carolina Panthers	5	12	.294	5	341	534	-193	4.70	+0.30

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	7	.588	-	367	386	-19	7.95	+2.05
2	Seattle Seahawks	10	7	.588	-	375	368	+7	8.39	+1.61
3	Arizona Cardinals	8	9	.471	2	400	379	+21	7.74	+0.26
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	11	.353	4	389	436	-47	9.43	-3.43

Tiebreakers

Pittsburgh earned the 6-seed over Denver by virtue of their head-to-head victory in Week 2.
Los Rams won the NFC West title over Seattle based on a better strength of victory (.441 vs. .421)
Tampa Bay earned the 3-seed over the Los Rams by virtue of having a better conference record (8-4 vs. 6-6).

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 32

Los Angeles Chargers 12

Jan 11

Baltimore Ravens 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Jan 11

Buffalo Bills 31

Denver Broncos 7

Jan 12

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs 23

Houston Texans 14

Jan 18

Buffalo Bills 27

Baltimore Ravens 25

Jan 19

Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs 32

Buffalo Bills 29

Jan 26

NFC

Wild Card Round

Philadelphia Eagles 22

Green Bay Packers 10

Jan 12

Washington Commanders 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Jan 12

Los Angeles Rams 27

Minnesota Vikings 9

Jan 13

Divisional Round

Washington Commanders 45

Detroit Lions 31

Jan 18

Philadelphia Eagles 28

Los Angeles Rams 22

Jan 19

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 55

Washington Commanders 23

Jan 26

Super Bowl

Philadelphia Eagles 40

Kansas City Chiefs 22

Feb 9

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1811	15	11.64	+3.36	98.94%	4	9	10	12	13	14	17
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1759	12	10.85	+1.15	80.83%	3	8	10	11	12	14	17
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1754	14	11.30	+2.70	96.67%	3	8	10	11	13	14	17
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1745	13	11.91	+1.09	81.68%	4	9	11	12	13	15	17
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1732	15	12.17	+2.83	97.75%	3	9	11	12	13	15	17
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1669	14	11.01	+2.99	97.46%	2	8	10	11	12	14	17
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1668	11	10.36	+0.64	72.29%	1	7	9	10	12	13	17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1617	10	10.09	-0.09	58.50%	2	7	9	10	11	13	17
Washington Commanders	NFC	NFC East	1611	12	9.50	+2.50	94.48%	2	6	8	10	11	13	17
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1605	11	9.87	+1.13	80.23%	2	7	9	10	11	13	17
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1595	10	9.12	+0.88	77.10%	2	6	8	9	10	12	17
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1581	9	8.53	+0.47	69.15%	0	5	7	9	10	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1562	10	8.39	+1.61	85.68%	0	5	7	8	10	12	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1549	10	7.95	+2.05	90.63%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1530	10	9.84	+0.16	63.46%	2	7	9	10	11	13	17
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1505	10	9.06	+0.94	77.30%	2	6	8	9	10	12	17
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1477	8	7.74	+0.26	65.84%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1468	8	8.32	-0.32	54.01%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1424	7	7.33	-0.33	54.54%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1416	5	6.75	-1.75	26.70%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1400	8	8.10	-0.10	58.68%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1392	8	8.09	-0.09	58.83%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1392	6	9.43	-3.43	6.59%	1	6	8	9	11	13	17
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1345	5	6.73	-1.73	25.15%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1329	4	6.86	-2.86	10.99%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1329	5	8.40	-3.40	6.74%	0	5	7	8	10	12	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1319	5	4.70	+0.30	68.64%	0	2	3	5	6	8	13
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1317	4	5.62	-1.62	28.09%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1282	3	5.60	-2.60	12.74%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1281	4	5.59	-1.59	28.91%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1277	3	5.17	-2.17	17.74%	0	2	4	5	6	8	14
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1260	3	5.97	-2.97	9.30%	0	3	5	6	7	9	15

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	3-1 (2.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.6 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.4 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-
Indianapolis Colts	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	-	-
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	-	-
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	-	-

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	-	4-0 (3.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	-	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Commanders
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Commanders	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	-	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	-	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Commanders	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	4-0 (3.3 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.37%	0.55%	0.55%	0.92%	1.10%	0.37%	0.18%	4.04%
7–13	0.55%	1.10%	3.49%	2.02%	3.68%	2.02%	0.55%	13.42%
14–20	0.55%	3.49%	8.09%	7.72%	4.41%	1.84%	0.92%	27.02%
21–27	0.92%	2.02%	7.72%	8.46%	5.15%	0.92%	0.55%	25.74%
28–34	1.10%	3.68%	4.41%	5.15%	1.84%	1.84%	0.37%	18.38%
35–41	0.37%	2.02%	1.84%	0.92%	1.84%	0.37%	0.37%	7.72%
42+	0.18%	0.55%	0.92%	0.55%	0.37%	0.37%	0.74%	3.68%
Total	4.04%	13.42%	27.02%	25.74%	18.38%	7.72%	3.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.91	22.91	+0.00
SD	9.80	9.80	14.57
CV	0.43	0.43	—
Max	52	52	+46
Min	0	0	-46

Games Played: 272

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%
21–27	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	35.29%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	5.88%	17.65%	23.53%	23.53%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.53	22.29	+1.24
SD	11.10	10.43	16.34
CV	0.47	0.47	—
Max	47	42	+31
Min	6	6	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	5.88%	29.41%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.76%	23.53%	29.41%	17.65%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.88	24.88	-2.00
SD	10.03	10.42	14.08
CV	0.44	0.42	—
Max	38	44	+27
Min	6	7	-32

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
28–34	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	29.41%
35–41	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	41.18%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	17.65%	17.65%	35.29%	17.65%	5.88%	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.47	21.24	+9.24
SD	7.84	9.72	12.90
CV	0.26	0.46	—
Max	41	38	+31
Min	16	2	-7

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
14–20	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	17.65%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
35–41	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%	17.65%
Total	—	29.41%	17.65%	29.41%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	30.88	21.65	+9.24
SD	10.26	10.92	15.09
CV	0.33	0.50	—
Max	48	44	+37
Min	10	10	-25

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	17.65%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	35.29%
21–27	—	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
Total	—	—	5.88%	29.41%	29.41%	23.53%	11.76%	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.06	31.41	-11.35
SD	11.05	8.86	15.48
CV	0.55	0.28	—
Max	44	48	+14
Min	3	17	-37

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	23.53%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	41.18%	17.65%	23.53%	5.88%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.24	21.76	-3.53
SD	9.48	8.27	13.48
CV	0.52	0.38	—
Max	36	38	+26
Min	3	6	-25

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
21–27	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	—	11.76%	—	11.76%	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	29.41%	5.88%	23.53%	5.88%	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.76	25.53	+2.24
SD	8.92	11.43	9.76
CV	0.32	0.45	—
Max	41	44	+18
Min	10	6	-20

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	23.53%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	47.06%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	23.53%	41.18%	11.76%	17.65%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.18	25.59	-10.41
SD	7.61	7.53	9.55
CV	0.50	0.29	—
Max	32	41	+5
Min	3	13	-25

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	29.41%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	29.41%	29.41%	23.53%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.59	27.53	-6.94
SD	8.57	9.93	16.91
CV	0.42	0.36	—
Max	34	47	+16
Min	6	14	-38

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	11.76%	17.65%	—	—	—	—	29.41%
35–41	11.76%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	29.41%	23.53%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	—	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.00	18.29	+6.71
SD	10.74	11.23	17.20
CV	0.43	0.61	—
Max	41	41	+38
Min	6	0	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	5.88%	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	29.41%
Total	11.76%	17.65%	35.29%	5.88%	23.53%	—	5.88%	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	33.18	20.12	+13.06
SD	11.06	11.28	15.16
CV	0.33	0.56	—
Max	52	48	+46
Min	16	6	-6

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	52.94%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	23.53%	23.53%	29.41%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.06	19.88	+7.18
SD	6.45	9.33	12.35
CV	0.24	0.47	—
Max	38	34	+34
Min	14	0	-10

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	29.41%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	47.06%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	17.65%	29.41%	35.29%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.88	21.88	+0.00
SD	9.07	7.08	13.56
CV	0.41	0.32	—
Max	41	34	+24
Min	2	10	-29

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	17.65%	41.18%	23.53%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.18	25.12	-2.94
SD	8.81	8.40	7.99
CV	0.40	0.33	—
Max	38	45	+8
Min	6	10	-18

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
7–13	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	23.53%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
21–27	—	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	23.53%	17.65%	23.53%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.82	25.59	-6.76
SD	8.57	12.10	15.00
CV	0.46	0.47	—
Max	37	52	+16
Min	6	6	-46

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	11.76%	23.53%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	47.06%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	47.06%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.65	19.18	+3.47
SD	7.41	7.86	12.35
CV	0.33	0.41	—
Max	30	38	+19
Min	0	7	-38

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
14–20	—	—	23.53%	5.88%	23.53%	—	—	52.94%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	29.41%	17.65%	35.29%	11.76%	—	100%

Las Vegas Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.18	25.53	-7.35
SD	4.90	8.99	9.56
CV	0.27	0.35	—
Max	26	41	+15
Min	9	10	-19

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
21–27	5.88%	17.65%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	29.41%	41.18%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	100%

Los Angeles Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.65	17.71	+5.94
SD	8.68	9.37	13.62
CV	0.37	0.53	—
Max	40	40	+33
Min	10	3	-23

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	—	5.88%	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%
Total	5.88%	11.76%	23.53%	35.29%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.59	22.71	-1.12
SD	8.11	10.56	10.68
CV	0.38	0.47	—
Max	44	42	+10
Min	10	6	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
14–20	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	41.18%	11.76%	35.29%	—	—	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.29	21.41	-1.12
SD	9.27	8.45	13.22
CV	0.46	0.39	—
Max	34	32	+19
Min	3	3	-21

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
21–27	—	11.76%	11.76%	17.65%	—	—	—	41.18%
28–34	5.88%	11.76%	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	35.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	5.88%	29.41%	11.76%	29.41%	23.53%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.41	19.53	+5.88
SD	7.78	8.76	11.90
CV	0.31	0.45	—
Max	42	31	+27
Min	9	6	-22

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
14–20	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	35.29%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	29.41%	29.41%	11.76%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.00	24.53	-7.53
SD	6.05	9.99	12.45
CV	0.36	0.41	—
Max	25	41	+16
Min	3	3	-33

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	17.65%
28–34	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	—	11.76%	29.41%	41.18%	11.76%	—	5.88%	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.88	23.41	-3.53
SD	12.57	9.91	18.28
CV	0.63	0.42	—
Max	47	51	+37
Min	0	10	-34

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	17.65%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	17.65%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
Total	—	—	41.18%	23.53%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	16.06	24.41	-8.35
SD	10.15	6.58	11.78
CV	0.63	0.27	—
Max	45	35	+12
Min	3	14	-27

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	11.76%	—	29.41%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	41.18%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	29.41%	23.53%	11.76%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.88	23.76	-3.88
SD	7.58	9.60	12.90
CV	0.38	0.40	—
Max	32	40	+21
Min	6	3	-26

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	29.41%
28–34	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
35–41	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	23.53%	35.29%	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	—	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.24	17.82	+9.41
SD	7.77	9.02	12.48
CV	0.29	0.51	—
Max	41	36	+34
Min	15	3	-17

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
Total	5.88%	17.65%	35.29%	23.53%	11.76%	5.88%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.35	20.41	+1.94
SD	9.06	8.97	11.62
CV	0.41	0.44	—
Max	44	38	+22
Min	10	6	-19

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	23.53%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	17.65%	17.65%	29.41%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.88	25.65	-2.76
SD	9.54	9.84	14.69
CV	0.42	0.38	—
Max	38	47	+25
Min	6	12	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	5.88%	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
28–34	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	17.65%	—	29.41%	23.53%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.06	21.65	+0.41
SD	7.48	10.98	12.16
CV	0.34	0.51	—
Max	34	42	+21
Min	6	3	-21

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	—	29.41%
35–41	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	—	11.76%	35.29%	29.41%	11.76%	11.76%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.53	22.65	+6.88
SD	10.51	8.78	14.68
CV	0.36	0.39	—
Max	51	41	+34
Min	7	7	-19

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	23.53%	5.88%	—	11.76%	52.94%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.76%	17.65%	35.29%	11.76%	11.76%	11.76%	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.29	27.06	-8.76
SD	7.51	10.87	12.53
CV	0.41	0.40	—
Max	32	52	+19
Min	6	10	-38

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	35.29%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	—	11.76%	35.29%	17.65%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

Washington Commanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.53	23.00	+5.53
SD	8.54	8.57	13.51
CV	0.30	0.37	—
Max	42	37	+33
Min	18	7	-17

Games Played: 17

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.68	+0.4
Allowed	0.52	-0.5
Differential	0.82	+0.3

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	15	11.64	+3.36
2	Minnesota Vikings	14	11.01	+2.99
3	Kansas City Chiefs	15	12.17	+2.83
4	Philadelphia Eagles	14	11.30	+2.70
5	Washington Commanders	12	9.50	+2.50

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	6	9.43	-3.43
2	New Orleans Saints	5	8.40	-3.40
3	Tennessee Titans	3	5.97	-2.97
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	6.86	-2.86
5	New York Giants	3	5.60	-2.60

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	11	Sep 22 – Dec 5	1 in 89
2	Philadelphia Eagles	10	Oct 13 – Dec 15	1 in 66
3	Los Angeles Rams	5	Dec 1 – Dec 28	1 in 49
4	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Sep 5 – Nov 10	1 in 38
5	Arizona Cardinals	4	Oct 21 – Nov 10	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	7	Sep 22 – Nov 3	1 in 336
2	Chicago Bears	10	Oct 27 – Dec 26	1 in 93
3	New York Giants	10	Oct 13 – Dec 22	1 in 64
4	New England Patriots	6	Sep 15 – Oct 20	1 in 27
5	Las Vegas Raiders	10	Oct 6 – Dec 16	1 in 26

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	87.91%	10.57%	1.39%	0.13%
Miami Dolphins	9.25%	54.92%	25.65%	10.18%
New York Jets	2.34%	23.66%	44.00%	30.00%
New England Patriots	0.49%	10.86%	28.96%	59.69%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	57.26%	29.69%	12.13%	0.92%
Pittsburgh Steelers	30.48%	41.32%	25.20%	3.00%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.98%	26.95%	50.47%	10.61%
Cleveland Browns	0.29%	2.04%	12.20%	85.47%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	52.84%	27.99%	13.79%	5.38%
Indianapolis Colts	29.37%	34.39%	23.49%	12.76%
Jacksonville Jaguars	12.13%	23.13%	34.02%	30.72%
Tennessee Titans	5.66%	14.49%	28.70%	51.15%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	73.38%	20.22%	6.02%	0.38%
Los Angeles Chargers	16.59%	42.43%	34.98%	6.00%
Denver Broncos	9.79%	34.60%	46.54%	9.06%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.24%	2.74%	12.46%	84.56%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	71.50%	23.08%	4.79%	0.63%
Washington Commanders	23.42%	52.52%	19.11%	4.95%
Dallas Cowboys	4.32%	18.48%	51.15%	26.05%
New York Giants	0.76%	5.92%	24.95%	68.37%

Team	1	2	3	4
Detroit Lions	47.93%	31.74%	18.54%	1.79%
Minnesota Vikings	31.61%	35.17%	29.07%	4.15%
Green Bay Packers	20.07%	30.97%	41.69%	7.27%
Chicago Bears	0.40%	2.12%	10.70%	86.79%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	61.24%	25.78%	11.58%	1.40%
New Orleans Saints	20.53%	37.14%	34.21%	8.12%
Atlanta Falcons	17.48%	33.10%	39.67%	9.75%
Carolina Panthers	0.75%	3.98%	14.55%	80.72%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	45.88%	27.09%	17.08%	9.95%
Seattle Seahawks	21.98%	26.66%	26.44%	24.92%
Los Angeles Rams	17.91%	24.57%	28.16%	29.36%
Arizona Cardinals	14.22%	21.68%	28.32%	35.77%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kansas City Chiefs	36.50%	22.75%	14.25%	8.97%	6.29%	4.21%	2.67%	1.73%	1.18%	0.73%	0.41%	0.19%	0.07%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Buffalo Bills	28.97%	25.18%	17.79%	10.46%	6.50%	4.21%	2.82%	1.71%	1.08%	0.62%	0.35%	0.19%	0.08%	0.03%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	14.08%	17.12%	16.54%	12.58%	10.42%	8.51%	6.30%	4.81%	3.58%	2.54%	1.73%	0.95%	0.47%	0.22%	0.11%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.51%	8.88%	11.35%	11.66%	11.80%	11.06%	9.50%	8.00%	6.74%	5.55%	4.11%	2.79%	1.48%	0.86%	0.50%	0.21%
Los Angeles Chargers	5.89%	7.57%	9.68%	11.70%	12.13%	10.93%	9.59%	8.68%	7.43%	5.66%	4.29%	2.77%	1.79%	1.06%	0.59%	0.24%
Houston Texans	2.56%	5.21%	8.33%	11.73%	11.06%	10.35%	10.12%	9.40%	7.97%	6.64%	5.56%	4.29%	2.96%	1.93%	1.27%	0.64%
Denver Broncos	2.72%	4.37%	6.26%	8.77%	10.42%	10.61%	10.26%	10.25%	9.77%	8.48%	6.68%	4.81%	3.03%	1.89%	1.13%	0.55%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.59%	3.12%	4.84%	6.18%	7.63%	8.74%	9.17%	9.79%	10.52%	10.50%	9.32%	7.04%	4.74%	3.26%	2.25%	1.31%
Miami Dolphins	1.02%	2.29%	3.77%	5.43%	7.37%	9.63%	11.10%	11.20%	10.21%	9.22%	8.12%	7.08%	5.27%	3.80%	2.78%	1.69%
Indianapolis Colts	0.76%	2.19%	4.17%	6.64%	7.29%	8.17%	9.57%	9.88%	9.77%	9.21%	8.52%	7.91%	6.02%	4.62%	3.23%	2.06%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.14%	0.52%	1.19%	2.46%	3.27%	4.27%	5.66%	6.79%	8.12%	9.39%	10.95%	11.14%	10.83%	9.87%	8.29%	7.12%
New York Jets	0.17%	0.47%	0.86%	1.55%	2.57%	3.98%	5.21%	6.44%	7.85%	9.66%	11.16%	12.29%	11.21%	9.90%	8.89%	7.78%
Tennessee Titans	0.04%	0.16%	0.49%	0.97%	1.47%	2.16%	3.16%	4.17%	5.43%	7.21%	8.80%	10.50%	12.95%	14.09%	14.25%	14.13%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.06%	0.19%	0.35%	0.72%	1.46%	2.24%	3.06%	4.28%	5.92%	7.86%	10.21%	12.26%	14.63%	17.24%	19.50%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.02%	0.08%	0.17%	0.39%	0.72%	1.09%	1.61%	2.47%	3.62%	4.82%	6.81%	9.67%	14.09%	17.04%	18.35%	19.04%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.18%	0.36%	0.62%	1.01%	1.62%	2.45%	3.82%	5.35%	8.16%	12.73%	16.77%	21.12%	25.68%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Detroit Lions	28.54%	17.07%	12.93%	10.57%	8.64%	6.43%	4.75%	3.68%	2.98%	1.88%	1.20%	0.68%	0.39%	0.17%	0.08%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.10%	20.77%	15.09%	11.44%	8.58%	6.99%	5.29%	3.99%	2.89%	1.86%	1.29%	0.84%	0.47%	0.26%	0.11%	0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	17.82%	13.64%	12.47%	11.43%	10.15%	8.23%	6.74%	5.81%	4.91%	3.41%	2.18%	1.44%	0.96%	0.49%	0.24%	0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.80%	11.22%	12.44%	11.96%	10.80%	9.37%	8.43%	7.25%	5.87%	4.71%	3.77%	2.84%	1.74%	0.98%	0.56%	0.24%
Green Bay Packers	10.90%	9.74%	10.02%	10.63%	10.62%	9.23%	8.42%	7.95%	7.40%	5.21%	3.72%	2.55%	1.81%	1.12%	0.52%	0.16%
San Francisco 49ers	4.23%	7.40%	9.41%	9.67%	9.54%	9.62%	8.91%	8.20%	7.42%	6.81%	5.62%	4.48%	3.69%	2.74%	1.67%	0.58%
Washington Commanders	4.11%	6.87%	7.68%	8.56%	9.60%	10.55%	10.95%	9.46%	8.12%	6.72%	5.59%	4.47%	3.10%	2.16%	1.44%	0.61%
New Orleans Saints	1.38%	3.09%	4.08%	5.29%	6.21%	7.39%	8.61%	9.41%	9.36%	9.45%	9.49%	8.68%	6.82%	4.92%	3.40%	2.42%
Seattle Seahawks	1.76%	3.08%	4.52%	5.26%	6.17%	7.02%	7.68%	8.22%	8.71%	8.96%	8.77%	8.16%	7.95%	6.79%	4.87%	2.08%
Atlanta Falcons	0.92%	2.14%	3.38%	4.39%	5.38%	6.48%	7.63%	8.75%	9.23%	9.93%	10.31%	9.84%	8.13%	6.13%	4.48%	2.88%
Los Angeles Rams	1.08%	2.11%	3.22%	4.01%	5.10%	6.32%	6.98%	7.78%	8.41%	9.15%	9.27%	9.34%	8.92%	8.50%	6.59%	3.20%
Arizona Cardinals	0.79%	1.62%	2.64%	3.51%	4.36%	5.37%	6.19%	6.95%	7.92%	9.11%	9.53%	9.75%	10.08%	10.15%	8.01%	4.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.45%	0.94%	1.48%	2.07%	2.93%	4.02%	5.00%	5.95%	7.48%	9.65%	11.27%	11.90%	11.22%	10.32%	9.06%	6.25%
Chicago Bears	0.10%	0.21%	0.41%	0.76%	1.18%	1.72%	2.50%	3.75%	5.07%	6.51%	8.88%	12.22%	16.42%	16.76%	14.76%	8.74%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.09%	0.17%	0.33%	0.52%	0.92%	1.34%	1.93%	2.80%	4.42%	5.92%	8.11%	10.76%	15.88%	22.89%	23.88%
Carolina Panthers	<0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.10%	0.20%	0.32%	0.58%	0.91%	1.42%	2.21%	3.20%	4.68%	7.54%	12.62%	21.32%	44.82%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Kansas City Chiefs	22.02%	15.54%	12.17%	9.61%	7.49%	6.27%	4.98%	4.08%	3.36%	2.86%	2.27%	1.99%	1.52%	1.31%	0.94%	0.85%	0.64%	0.58%	0.37%	0.37%	0.22%	0.21%	0.12%	0.09%	0.07%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	<0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Buffalo Bills	16.87%	13.94%	12.22%	10.92%	8.23%	7.98%	5.43%	5.24%	3.48%	3.41%	2.31%	2.15%	1.68%	1.49%	1.03%	0.85%	0.64%	0.60%	0.40%	0.35%	0.21%	0.20%	0.12%	0.09%	0.06%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-	-
Detroit Lions	14.29%	12.93%	10.44%	8.40%	7.73%	6.22%	6.22%	4.84%	4.94%	3.53%	3.72%	2.73%	2.63%	1.83%	1.99%	1.54%	1.55%	0.95%	0.92%	0.67%	0.57%	0.34%	0.34%	0.22%	0.15%	0.10%	0.09%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.59%	10.46%	10.03%	10.20%	8.02%	7.61%	6.19%	5.66%	4.75%	4.29%	3.84%	3.23%	2.79%	2.43%	2.14%	1.80%	1.40%	1.21%	1.03%	0.81%	0.68%	0.46%	0.42%	0.31%	0.22%	0.17%	0.11%	0.07%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	7.56%	7.37%	8.53%	7.81%	7.91%	7.42%	6.49%	5.75%	5.47%	4.97%	4.36%	4.18%	3.40%	3.29%	2.50%	2.38%	1.93%	1.98%	1.36%	1.36%	0.87%	0.96%	0.55%	0.55%	0.31%	0.29%	0.14%	0.14%	0.08%	0.05%	0.03%	<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	8.00%	9.14%	7.55%	7.44%	7.04%	6.36%	6.33%	5.72%	5.49%	4.62%	4.56%	4.04%	3.58%	2.86%	3.10%	2.50%	2.54%	1.67%	1.74%	1.26%	1.12%	0.80%	0.69%	0.50%	0.47%	0.28%	0.21%	0.16%	0.11%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	4.41%	5.77%	5.36%	5.49%	5.86%	5.36%	6.09%	5.41%	5.77%	4.85%	5.47%	4.38%	4.60%	3.66%	4.45%	3.38%	3.87%	2.53%	2.73%	2.12%	2.00%	1.31%	1.21%	1.01%	0.92%	0.64%	0.51%	0.35%	0.24%	0.13%	0.07%	0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.19%	4.39%	5.29%	5.92%	6.07%	6.35%	6.16%	6.03%	5.72%	5.52%	5.12%	4.64%	4.59%	4.08%	3.94%	3.38%	3.17%	2.70%	2.64%	2.11%	1.93%	1.54%	1.46%	1.14%	0.81%	0.65%	0.51%	0.37%	0.28%	0.17%	0.11%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.53%	3.27%	4.08%	4.67%	5.21%	5.67%	5.57%	5.70%	5.54%	5.79%	5.09%	5.48%	4.61%	4.93%	3.86%	4.12%	3.34%	3.68%	2.69%	2.89%	2.10%	2.39%	1.52%	1.50%	0.97%	0.90%	0.61%	0.51%	0.32%	0.26%	0.15%	0.06%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.76%	3.29%	3.91%	4.23%	4.85%	4.94%	5.67%	5.54%	5.55%	5.81%	5.29%	5.32%	4.69%	4.88%	4.23%	4.20%	3.56%	3.79%	2.90%	2.80%	2.18%	2.29%	1.60%	1.55%	1.06%	0.97%	0.69%	0.54%	0.39%	0.28%	0.16%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers	1.61%	2.43%	3.34%	4.00%	4.57%	4.83%	4.89%	4.95%	5.13%	4.97%	5.16%	4.64%	4.95%	4.38%	4.61%	3.99%	4.17%	3.36%	3.85%	3.06%	3.11%	2.36%	2.40%	1.94%	1.83%	1.52%	1.28%	1.02%	0.70%	0.54%	0.29%	0.13%
Washington Commanders	1.52%	2.48%	3.05%	3.90%	4.09%	4.32%	4.56%	4.76%	4.87%	5.20%	5.43%	5.37%	5.41%	5.05%	4.92%	4.54%	4.07%	3.84%	3.60%	3.18%	2.93%	2.43%	2.33%	1.80%	1.58%	1.29%	1.09%	0.81%	0.69%	0.48%	0.30%	0.14%
Houston Texans	1.13%	1.56%	2.37%	2.66%	3.57%	4.24%	4.38%	5.57%	4.73%	5.68%	4.52%	5.39%	4.70%	5.45%	4.23%	5.00%	4.24%	4.57%	3.27%	3.54%	3.08%	3.06%	2.52%	2.40%	1.81%	1.79%	1.27%	1.11%	0.80%	0.71%	0.42%	0.23%
Denver Broncos	1.06%	1.53%	2.13%	2.53%	2.99%	3.26%	4.09%	4.44%	4.67%	5.02%	4.85%	5.38%	4.91%	5.39%	4.88%	5.08%	4.46%	5.00%	3.97%	4.44%	3.21%	3.66%	2.55%	2.70%	1.83%	1.81%	1.20%	1.07%	0.73%	0.57%	0.39%	0.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.64%	0.89%	1.41%	1.70%	2.21%	2.48%	2.91%	3.11%	3.64%	3.71%	3.96%	4.55%	4.25%	4.67%	4.39%	5.05%	4.70%	5.63%	4.35%	5.41%	4.10%	5.11%	3.54%	3.91%	2.79%	2.86%	2.02%	1.92%	1.39%	1.26%	0.83%	0.63%
New Orleans Saints	0.46%	0.79%	1.30%	1.66%	1.99%	2.28%	2.64%	2.98%	3.41%	3.37%	3.95%	3.86%	4.52%	4.49%	4.97%	4.57%	4.91%	4.75%	4.97%	4.82%	4.71%	4.33%	4.27%	3.89%	3.35%	3.05%	2.57%	2.13%	1.71%	1.35%	1.22%	0.72%
Miami Dolphins	0.39%	0.65%	0.97%	1.30%	1.64%	2.13%	2.42%	2.97%	3.09%	3.89%	3.81%	4.84%	4.34%	5.80%	4.43%	5.69%	4.68%	5.62%	4.47%	4.98%	4.07%	4.48%	3.67%	3.74%	3.26%	3.12%	2.39%	2.22%	1.75%	1.45%	1.09%	0.67%
Seattle Seahawks	0.57%	0.96%	1.39%	1.72%	2.26%	2.43%	2.72%	2.86%	3.28%	3.33%	3.87%	3.62%	4.19%	3.86%	4.84%	4.21%	4.58%	4.09%	5.04%	4.32%	4.79%	4.04%	4.33%	3.81%	4.08%	3.17%	3.28%	2.66%	2.31%	1.67%	1.08%	0.63%
Indianapolis Colts	0.30%	0.47%	0.95%	1.23%	1.64%	2.10%	2.42%	3.15%	3.06%	3.72%	3.48%	4.30%	4.03%	4.83%	4.12%	5.17%	4.61%	5.36%	4.26%	4.88%	4.39%	4.79%	4.04%	4.18%	3.54%	3.48%	2.78%	2.57%	2.14%	1.80%	1.32%	0.91%
Atlanta Falcons	0.30%	0.55%	0.90%	1.20%	1.69%	1.78%	2.21%	2.43%	2.84%	2.92%	3.64%	3.28%	4.17%	3.89%	4.67%	4.48%	4.81%	4.70%	5.33%	4.88%	5.09%	4.79%	4.98%	4.54%	3.97%	3.68%	3.20%	2.68%	2.35%	1.77%	1.44%	0.85%
Los Angeles Rams	0.28%	0.58%	0.88%	1.15%	1.46%	1.75%	2.08%	2.19%	2.67%	2.73%	3.35%	3.29%	3.97%	3.49%	4.45%	3.97%	4.69%	4.28%	5.08%	4.37%	5.21%	4.30%	5.17%	4.35%	4.59%	3.89%	4.04%	3.47%	2.99%	2.50%	1.73%	1.04%
Arizona Cardinals	0.25%	0.43%	0.68%	0.87%	1.27%	1.43%	1.73%	1.85%	2.35%	2.45%	2.88%	2.71%	3.46%	3.22%	4.05%	3.66%	4.40%	4.03%	5.05%	4.55%	5.33%	4.65%	5.31%	4.70%	5.19%	4.50%	4.79%	4.07%	3.78%	2.91%	2.11%	1.32%
Dallas Cowboys	0.13%	0.24%	0.42%	0.52%	0.77%	0.80%	1.16%	1.21%	1.60%	1.62%	2.29%	2.11%	2.83%	2.62%	3.54%	3.34%	4.00%	3.85%	5.21%	4.97%	5.65%	5.26%	5.92%	5.71%	5.50%	5.40%	5.12%	4.74%	4.45%	3.63%	3.15%	2.24%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.04%	0.10%	0.19%	0.28%	0.46%	0.67%	0.82%	1.16%	1.30%	1.60%	1.58%	2.22%	2.19%	2.97%	2.56%	3.49%	3.50%	4.39%	3.91%	4.84%	4.90%	5.79%	5.10%	5.95%	5.42%	5.99%	5.41%	5.68%	4.96%	4.85%	4.11%	3.58%
New York Jets	0.06%	0.11%	0.16%	0.26%	0.39%	0.48%	0.62%	0.81%	1.04%	1.37%	1.53%	1.96%	2.15%	2.57%	2.68%	3.22%	3.39%	3.96%	4.06%	4.76%	4.87%	5.78%	5.26%	6.23%	5.77%	6.36%	5.39%	5.86%	4.99%	5.46%	4.50%	3.97%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.06%	0.09%	0.11%	0.22%	0.26%	0.40%	0.46%	0.66%	0.72%	1.07%	1.11%	1.48%	1.51%	2.44%	2.34%	3.10%	2.58%	4.00%	4.13%	5.31%	4.66%	6.88%	6.12%	8.20%	6.70%	8.25%	6.59%	7.23%	5.42%	4.72%	3.16%
Tennessee Titans	<0.01%	0.03%	0.07%	0.08%	0.15%	0.24%	0.31%	0.44%	0.58%	0.73%	0.76%	1.04%	1.27%	1.46%	1.60%	2.08%	2.29%	2.69%	2.91%	3.48%	3.87%	4.67%	4.55%	5.53%	5.71%	6.82%	6.82%	7.94%	7.56%	8.57%	7.84%	7.87%
New England Patriots	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.08%	0.15%	0.21%	0.24%	0.37%	0.54%	0.68%	0.89%	1.08%	1.20%	1.47%	1.86%	2.05%	2.42%	2.74%	3.43%	3.91%	4.30%	5.05%	5.59%	6.47%	6.87%	8.24%	8.32%	10.18%	10.18%	11.34%
Las Vegas Raiders	-	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%	0.10%	0.14%	0.18%	0.27%	0.35%	0.41%	0.54%	0.72%	0.86%	1.03%	1.23%	1.56%	1.86%	2.15%	2.52%	2.86%	3.64%	4.34%	4.83%	5.91%	7.11%	7.60%	9.00%	9.39%	10.23%	10.42%	10.58%
New York Giants	<0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%	0.11%	0.15%	0.17%	0.28%	0.31%	0.47%	0.50%	0.73%	0.78%	1.06%	1.14%	1.51%	1.67%	2.53%	2.36%	3.09%	3.34%	4.34%	4.69%	5.58%	6.11%	7.70%	8.32%	10.09%	10.51%	11.05%	11.24%
Cleveland Browns	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.06%	0.09%	0.14%	0.18%	0.25%	0.30%	0.43%	0.53%	0.68%	0.76%	1.03%	1.25%	1.61%	1.83%	2.35%	2.72%	3.55%	4.16%	5.33%	6.33%	7.48%	8.78%	10.23%	11.56%	13.38%	14.89%
Carolina Panthers	-	-	<0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.05%	0.09%	0.11%	0.17%	0.18%	0.30%	0.31%	0.47%	0.50%	0.80%	0.77%	1.16%	1.23%	1.77%	1.74%	2.60%	2.79%	4.12%	4.46%	6.53%	6.92%	9.93%	11.59%	17.88%	23.44%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	36.50%	21.97%	11.88%	3.03%	12.49%	6.06%	3.40%	4.68%
Buffalo Bills	28.97%	27.22%	21.32%	10.41%	2.71%	2.99%	2.53%	3.86%
Baltimore Ravens	14.08%	17.81%	18.42%	6.95%	10.84%	9.84%	7.07%	15.00%
Los Angeles Chargers	5.89%	5.50%	3.99%	1.21%	22.52%	15.21%	11.56%	34.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.51%	8.96%	11.36%	4.65%	13.76%	13.61%	10.76%	31.38%
Denver Broncos	2.72%	3.30%	2.88%	0.89%	16.09%	13.74%	12.04%	48.35%
Houston Texans	2.56%	5.75%	11.91%	32.62%	1.41%	3.43%	5.67%	36.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.59%	3.17%	4.84%	2.37%	7.59%	9.99%	10.17%	60.27%
Miami Dolphins	1.02%	2.39%	3.37%	2.48%	6.45%	10.86%	13.05%	60.39%
Indianapolis Colts	0.76%	2.45%	6.00%	20.16%	1.59%	3.92%	6.70%	58.43%
New York Jets	0.17%	0.51%	0.85%	0.81%	2.04%	4.09%	5.67%	85.86%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.14%	0.60%	1.95%	9.45%	0.72%	2.10%	4.11%	80.94%
Tennessee Titans	0.04%	0.21%	0.82%	4.59%	0.30%	1.11%	2.31%	90.62%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.07%	0.19%	0.21%	0.51%	1.36%	2.33%	95.31%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.02%	0.08%	0.09%	0.05%	0.74%	1.13%	1.64%	96.25%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.03%	0.12%	0.12%	0.26%	0.57%	1.00%	97.88%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Detroit Lions	28.54%	12.95%	4.98%	1.46%	22.74%	10.85%	6.63%	11.85%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.10%	24.63%	16.61%	10.17%	4.63%	6.77%	5.43%	11.67%
Minnesota Vikings	17.82%	9.08%	3.62%	1.10%	24.68%	13.83%	9.22%	20.67%
Green Bay Packers	10.90%	5.92%	2.46%	0.79%	21.63%	14.91%	11.33%	32.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.80%	13.83%	18.64%	20.97%	2.30%	4.73%	5.78%	25.95%
San Francisco 49ers	4.23%	8.87%	15.55%	17.23%	2.50%	5.18%	6.64%	39.79%
Washington Commanders	4.11%	8.04%	6.71%	4.56%	7.91%	13.62%	12.61%	42.44%
Seattle Seahawks	1.76%	3.68%	7.29%	9.26%	2.42%	4.91%	6.62%	64.07%
New Orleans Saints	1.38%	4.03%	6.37%	8.74%	2.47%	5.79%	7.82%	63.39%
Los Angeles Rams	1.08%	2.63%	5.73%	8.48%	1.68%	4.06%	5.84%	70.51%
Atlanta Falcons	0.92%	2.84%	5.53%	8.18%	1.93%	4.72%	6.80%	69.07%
Arizona Cardinals	0.79%	1.96%	4.66%	6.81%	1.66%	3.69%	5.24%	75.20%
Dallas Cowboys	0.45%	1.24%	1.37%	1.25%	2.03%	4.19%	5.44%	84.01%
Chicago Bears	0.10%	0.13%	0.11%	0.06%	1.07%	1.74%	2.80%	94.00%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.14%	0.24%	0.35%	0.30%	0.81%	1.37%	96.76%
Carolina Panthers	<0.01%	0.03%	0.14%	0.59%	0.04%	0.20%	0.45%	98.56%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+6.62%

Clear Edge

53.31%46.69%

Elo Value

Home Edge

25 Elo

0.039 points per Elo point

023.0380

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.87 points

Lean Home

-8+0.91+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 16th · Longshot: 17th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 3.12% · Tough Road: 3.12% to 6.25% · Favored: 6.25% to 12.5% · Heavy Favorite: 12.5% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.6

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

14%

Philadelphia Eagles, 3rd of 32

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

18.9%

Heavy Favorite

06.25%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.52 · As Expected: 1.52 to 2.09 · Elevated: 2.09 to 2.84 · High Variance: 2.84 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 4.39 · Close: 4.39 to 5.93 · Off Target: 5.93 to 7.74 · Well Off Target: 7.74 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.6 · As Expected: 1.6 to 3.84 · Several Outliers: 3.84 to 7.04 · Many Outliers: 7.04 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 2.69 · As Expected: 2.69 to 4.48 · More Than Expected: 4.48 to 7.17 · Far More Than Expected: 7.17 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.92 wins

As Expected

01.905

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.66

Pinpoint

05.1615

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.44%

98.94%

Detroit Lions

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.56%

6.59%

San Francisco 49ers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 32

Several Outliers

03.216

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 14

Fewer Than Expected

03.614

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.25

Concentrated

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.01

Coin-Flip Spread

01.003

Interquartile Edge

83%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

96%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

24%

Mostly Decisive

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

28%

Frequent

0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.21

Predictable

00.211

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.04

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.39

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%34%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.18 · Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.

Probability calibration

0.71

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.01

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.077

Within Noise

00.0920.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	75.43%	75.43%	54.24%	36.13%	21.67%
Buffalo Bills	79.33%	79.33%	51.08%	29.33%	14.95%
Philadelphia Eagles	69.97%	69.97%	45.63%	25.25%	13.72%
Kansas City Chiefs	79.70%	79.70%	50.59%	27.38%	13.50%
Baltimore Ravens	70.93%	67.62%	43.01%	25.19%	13.34%
Minnesota Vikings	61.52%	55.43%	26.83%	12.13%	5.53%
Green Bay Packers	57.04%	45.14%	21.65%	9.66%	4.44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	66.25%	43.55%	18.46%	6.87%	2.86%
Los Angeles Chargers	59.99%	36.27%	14.46%	5.41%	2.08%
Washington Commanders	53.46%	31.24%	13.12%	4.91%	2.01%
Denver Broncos	48.93%	26.09%	10.05%	3.69%	1.42%
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.11%	31.00%	9.84%	3.03%	0.95%
Cincinnati Bengals	38.13%	18.93%	6.92%	2.48%	0.92%
Seattle Seahawks	34.17%	17.08%	6.00%	1.93%	0.72%
Houston Texans	60.79%	27.37%	7.39%	2.06%	0.64%
Los Angeles Rams	28.42%	13.06%	4.35%	1.32%	0.44%
Miami Dolphins	38.58%	12.38%	3.16%	0.82%	0.23%
Arizona Cardinals	24.01%	8.82%	2.30%	0.57%	0.15%
San Francisco 49ers	55.98%	17.85%	3.33%	0.58%	0.13%
Indianapolis Colts	40.81%	11.45%	2.02%	0.38%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	30.01%	7.94%	1.49%	0.25%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	15.53%	4.77%	1.15%	0.22%	0.05%
New York Jets	13.97%	3.43%	0.74%	0.15%	0.04%
New Orleans Saints	35.23%	7.66%	1.13%	0.13%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars	18.92%	3.59%	0.41%	0.05%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	5.90%	1.31%	0.20%	0.03%	<0.01%
New England Patriots	4.67%	0.60%	0.07%	<0.01%	<0.01%
Carolina Panthers	1.44%	0.22%	0.04%	<0.01%	<0.01%
New York Giants	3.21%	0.54%	0.07%	0.01%	<0.01%
Las Vegas Raiders	3.73%	0.64%	0.08%	0.01%	<0.01%
Cleveland Browns	2.11%	0.27%	0.03%	<0.01%	-
Tennessee Titans	9.34%	1.36%	0.13%	0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		50.5%6.55%	75.2%6.43%	96.5%0.37%	73.5%6.83%	80.4%7.21%	88.2%4.95%	92.3%2.49%	52.5%5.60%	92.7%0.59%	72.5%7.84%	85.6%5.87%	92.1%0.78%	89.3%2.27%	79.4%11.91%	95.0%1.25%
Buffalo Bills	49.5%6.55%		73.3%6.17%	94.6%0.42%	72.3%8.28%	79.5%4.00%	88.3%3.77%	92.0%2.08%	52.4%4.00%	93.1%0.74%	71.1%9.05%	84.6%8.33%	93.5%1.12%	88.0%3.04%	79.3%8.46%	94.2%1.12%
Cincinnati Bengals	24.8%6.43%	26.7%6.17%		81.5%0.05%	50.6%2.22%	58.6%4.71%	72.5%2.71%	78.8%1.17%	27.4%4.68%	82.7%0.15%	48.7%2.89%	67.1%1.86%	89.6%0.14%	73.7%0.64%	56.9%3.74%	85.3%0.57%
Cleveland Browns	3.5%0.37%	5.4%0.42%	18.5%0.05%		10.0%0.11%	21.4%0.24%	29.4%0.11%	32.4%0.04%	7.7%0.31%	66.7%<0.01%	8.0%0.15%	27.9%0.07%	75.0%<0.01%	40.0%0.02%	14.8%0.18%	54.2%0.02%
Denver Broncos	26.5%6.83%	27.7%8.28%	49.4%2.22%	90.0%0.11%		59.1%7.69%	73.8%4.62%	81.1%1.99%	29.1%6.44%	85.3%0.10%	49.4%2.40%	67.0%1.95%	83.4%0.19%	71.9%0.55%	57.8%4.58%	86.8%0.98%
Houston Texans	19.6%7.21%	20.5%4.00%	41.4%4.71%	78.6%0.24%	40.9%7.69%		63.8%3.60%	74.4%1.38%	22.4%6.64%	77.4%0.46%	38.5%10.01%	58.1%4.32%	80.3%0.49%	65.4%1.58%	48.9%7.84%	79.3%0.62%
Indianapolis Colts	11.8%4.95%	11.7%3.77%	27.5%2.71%	70.6%0.11%	26.2%4.62%	36.2%3.60%		62.2%0.68%	12.7%4.87%	59.5%0.28%	24.8%6.23%	41.6%2.57%	71.4%0.23%	51.5%0.83%	33.8%5.06%	68.7%0.29%
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.7%2.49%	8.0%2.08%	21.2%1.17%	67.6%0.04%	18.9%1.99%	25.6%1.38%	37.8%0.68%		7.8%2.44%	56.2%0.09%	17.4%2.82%	30.9%0.99%	64.0%0.07%	40.0%0.28%	25.4%2.32%	58.4%0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	47.5%5.60%	47.6%4.00%	72.6%4.68%	92.3%0.31%	70.9%6.44%	77.6%6.64%	87.3%4.87%	92.2%2.44%		91.5%0.63%	69.3%7.85%	83.5%5.12%	95.3%0.79%	86.6%2.02%	77.3%6.17%	92.6%1.25%
Las Vegas Raiders	7.3%0.59%	6.9%0.74%	17.3%0.15%	33.3%<0.01%	14.7%0.10%	22.6%0.46%	40.5%0.28%	43.8%0.09%	8.5%0.63%		19.7%0.15%	32.7%0.10%	20.0%<0.01%	28.6%0.04%	19.3%0.33%	57.1%0.06%
Los Angeles Chargers	27.5%7.84%	28.9%9.05%	51.3%2.89%	92.0%0.15%	50.6%2.40%	61.5%10.01%	75.2%6.23%	82.6%2.82%	30.7%7.85%	80.3%0.15%		68.0%2.61%	85.6%0.24%	76.6%0.92%	59.3%5.58%	86.1%1.26%
Miami Dolphins	14.4%5.87%	15.4%8.33%	32.9%1.86%	72.1%0.07%	33.0%1.95%	41.9%4.32%	58.4%2.57%	69.1%0.99%	16.5%5.12%	67.3%0.10%	32.0%2.61%		78.6%0.06%	59.9%0.27%	40.9%3.98%	72.0%0.49%
New England Patriots	7.9%0.78%	6.5%1.12%	10.4%0.14%	25.0%<0.01%	16.6%0.19%	19.7%0.49%	28.6%0.23%	36.0%0.07%	4.7%0.79%	80.0%<0.01%	14.4%0.24%	21.4%0.06%		29.4%0.02%	18.2%0.49%	59.1%0.04%
New York Jets	10.7%2.27%	12.0%3.04%	26.3%0.64%	60.0%0.02%	28.1%0.55%	34.6%1.58%	48.5%0.83%	60.0%0.28%	13.4%2.02%	71.4%0.04%	23.4%0.92%	40.1%0.27%	70.6%0.02%		33.8%1.32%	72.8%0.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.6%11.91%	20.7%8.46%	43.1%3.74%	85.2%0.18%	42.2%4.58%	51.1%7.84%	66.2%5.06%	74.6%2.32%	22.7%6.17%	80.7%0.33%	40.7%5.58%	59.1%3.98%	81.8%0.49%	66.2%1.32%		80.7%1.14%
Tennessee Titans	5.0%1.25%	5.8%1.12%	14.7%0.57%	45.8%0.02%	13.2%0.98%	20.7%0.62%	31.3%0.29%	41.6%0.08%	7.4%1.25%	42.9%0.06%	13.9%1.26%	28.0%0.49%	40.9%0.04%	27.2%0.16%	19.3%1.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		61.2%0.97%	73.5%0.03%	69.5%0.21%	56.1%0.57%	12.9%3.31%	27.5%2.88%	39.6%0.85%	26.9%3.24%	69.9%1.12%	76.4%0.11%	15.0%2.85%	60.3%2.44%	36.3%1.10%	29.5%2.24%	33.2%2.08%
Atlanta Falcons	38.8%0.97%		66.7%0.03%	60.5%0.26%	46.1%0.68%	8.5%3.74%	18.8%3.46%	28.4%1.05%	17.8%3.83%	58.7%1.42%	60.7%0.15%	9.9%3.91%	47.2%2.21%	26.7%1.27%	20.1%4.21%	23.2%2.80%
Carolina Panthers	26.5%0.03%	33.3%0.03%		62.5%<0.01%	51.9%0.03%	6.4%0.20%	10.7%0.20%	15.6%0.04%	12.6%0.21%	38.9%0.04%	33.3%<0.01%	3.6%0.22%	30.9%0.10%	18.9%0.05%	15.7%0.15%	19.3%0.12%
Chicago Bears	30.5%0.21%	39.5%0.26%	37.5%<0.01%		34.5%0.09%	6.5%0.57%	13.9%0.30%	22.0%0.28%	11.3%0.37%	48.8%0.33%	58.3%0.02%	8.5%1.13%	39.8%0.68%	20.1%0.33%	15.9%0.96%	19.9%0.35%
Dallas Cowboys	43.9%0.57%	53.9%0.68%	48.1%0.03%	65.5%0.09%		7.9%1.51%	18.8%1.10%	30.8%0.70%	19.1%1.23%	63.5%0.87%	73.0%0.04%	12.4%2.93%	52.7%1.61%	28.7%0.91%	24.1%2.29%	25.5%0.99%
Detroit Lions	87.1%3.31%	91.5%3.74%	93.6%0.20%	93.5%0.57%	92.1%1.51%		71.5%4.42%	81.2%3.95%	69.9%5.20%	93.8%4.15%	93.9%0.38%	55.5%6.55%	91.4%7.68%	80.3%4.62%	72.9%8.56%	75.8%4.78%
Green Bay Packers	72.5%2.88%	81.2%3.46%	89.3%0.20%	86.1%0.30%	81.2%1.10%	28.5%4.42%		64.5%3.52%	49.4%3.68%	88.0%3.78%	88.8%0.22%	35.0%8.03%	81.1%7.78%	62.5%4.13%	54.1%9.36%	57.0%4.18%
Los Angeles Rams	60.4%0.85%	71.6%1.05%	84.4%0.04%	78.0%0.28%	69.2%0.70%	18.8%3.95%	35.5%3.52%		35.3%4.03%	76.2%1.23%	88.0%0.12%	22.7%3.34%	69.0%3.00%	48.1%1.35%	40.8%2.36%	41.9%2.60%
Minnesota Vikings	73.1%3.24%	82.2%3.83%	87.4%0.21%	88.7%0.37%	80.9%1.23%	30.1%5.20%	50.6%3.68%	64.7%4.03%		86.6%4.33%	89.5%0.27%	35.9%7.76%	81.9%8.35%	63.4%4.63%	55.1%9.73%	56.8%4.64%
New Orleans Saints	30.1%1.12%	41.3%1.42%	61.1%0.04%	51.2%0.33%	36.5%0.87%	6.2%4.15%	12.0%3.78%	23.8%1.23%	13.4%4.33%		53.3%0.17%	7.1%4.68%	39.5%2.74%	19.8%1.63%	15.9%5.29%	17.2%3.45%
New York Giants	23.6%0.11%	39.3%0.15%	66.7%<0.01%	41.7%0.02%	27.0%0.04%	6.1%0.38%	11.2%0.22%	12.0%0.12%	10.5%0.27%	46.7%0.17%		5.8%0.67%	33.9%0.34%	13.5%0.14%	10.8%0.42%	14.2%0.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	85.0%2.85%	90.1%3.91%	96.4%0.22%	91.5%1.13%	87.6%2.93%	44.5%6.55%	65.0%8.03%	77.3%3.34%	64.1%7.76%	92.9%4.68%	94.2%0.67%		88.6%5.33%	75.9%3.94%	68.5%6.11%	69.9%10.77%
San Francisco 49ers	39.7%2.44%	52.8%2.21%	69.1%0.10%	60.2%0.68%	47.3%1.61%	8.6%7.68%	18.9%7.78%	31.0%3.00%	18.1%8.35%	60.5%2.74%	66.1%0.34%	11.4%5.33%		25.9%3.79%	21.2%4.10%	22.8%5.83%
Seattle Seahawks	63.7%1.10%	73.3%1.27%	81.1%0.05%	79.9%0.33%	71.3%0.91%	19.7%4.62%	37.5%4.13%	51.9%1.35%	36.6%4.63%	80.2%1.63%	86.5%0.14%	24.1%3.94%	74.1%3.79%		40.9%3.02%	44.7%3.25%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	70.5%2.24%	79.9%4.21%	84.3%0.15%	84.1%0.96%	75.9%2.29%	27.1%8.56%	45.9%9.36%	59.2%2.36%	44.9%9.73%	84.1%5.29%	89.2%0.42%	31.5%6.11%	78.8%4.10%	59.1%3.02%		53.5%7.45%
Washington Commanders	66.8%2.08%	76.8%2.80%	80.7%0.12%	80.1%0.35%	74.5%0.99%	24.2%4.78%	43.0%4.18%	58.1%2.60%	43.2%4.64%	82.8%3.45%	85.8%0.16%	30.1%10.77%	77.2%5.83%	55.3%3.25%	46.5%7.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		51.4%19.44%	74.3%3.00%	85.1%0.05%	71.3%4.54%	80.0%5.45%	87.3%2.30%	91.5%0.71%	52.7%16.39%	92.4%0.12%	69.4%6.64%	81.1%2.26%	89.2%0.08%	82.7%0.61%	77.7%5.77%	96.1%0.25%
Buffalo Bills	48.6%19.44%		71.1%5.33%	89.4%0.08%	69.7%6.49%	78.3%7.70%	87.3%3.25%	91.8%1.01%	51.4%14.61%	90.3%0.18%	67.9%8.69%	82.3%3.04%	93.8%0.16%	84.3%0.81%	76.0%8.14%	91.8%0.38%
Cincinnati Bengals	25.7%3.00%	28.9%5.33%		0.0%<0.01%	45.2%0.90%	59.7%1.07%	71.6%0.37%	86.0%0.11%	30.8%5.08%	75.0%0.02%	46.8%1.44%	62.8%0.41%	81.2%0.02%	70.4%0.11%	56.1%1.01%	82.8%0.03%
Cleveland Browns	14.9%0.05%	10.6%0.08%	100.0%<0.01%		9.1%0.01%	26.7%0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	7.0%0.07%		22.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	28.7%4.54%	30.3%6.49%	54.8%0.90%	90.9%0.01%		60.2%1.23%	73.8%0.42%	84.4%0.14%	32.6%8.09%	100.0%<0.01%	49.5%1.67%	68.5%0.58%	84.0%0.03%	76.9%0.13%	59.1%1.78%	93.9%0.07%
Houston Texans	20.0%5.45%	21.7%7.70%	40.3%1.07%	73.3%0.01%	39.8%1.23%		63.0%0.19%	62.3%0.05%	23.0%7.17%	74.1%0.03%	36.0%1.83%	50.2%0.59%	93.8%0.02%	54.7%0.15%	43.9%1.84%	70.4%0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	12.7%2.30%	12.7%3.25%	28.4%0.37%	80.0%<0.01%	26.2%0.42%	37.0%0.19%		62.5%0.02%	14.6%3.17%	44.4%<0.01%	23.6%0.73%	47.0%0.25%	75.0%<0.01%	48.4%0.06%	33.7%0.66%	75.0%<0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	8.5%0.71%	8.2%1.01%	14.0%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	15.6%0.14%	37.7%0.05%	37.5%0.02%		8.8%1.02%	0.0%<0.01%	14.6%0.21%	35.0%0.06%	66.7%<0.01%	16.7%0.01%	23.7%0.23%
Kansas City Chiefs	47.3%16.39%	48.6%14.61%	69.2%5.08%	93.0%0.07%	67.4%8.09%	77.0%7.17%	85.4%3.17%	91.2%1.02%		90.2%0.18%	66.7%11.11%	79.6%3.33%	89.4%0.21%	83.4%1.04%	75.2%7.83%	92.8%0.39%
Las Vegas Raiders	7.6%0.12%	9.7%0.18%	25.0%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	25.9%0.03%	55.6%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	9.8%0.18%		12.5%0.03%	36.4%0.01%		37.5%<0.01%	22.0%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Chargers	30.6%6.64%	32.1%8.69%	53.2%1.44%	77.8%0.02%	50.5%1.67%	64.0%1.83%	76.4%0.73%	85.4%0.21%	33.3%11.11%	87.5%0.03%		65.6%0.98%	85.0%0.04%	70.6%0.26%	57.5%2.54%	85.2%0.08%
Miami Dolphins	18.9%2.26%	17.7%3.04%	37.2%0.41%	100.0%<0.01%	31.5%0.58%	49.8%0.59%	53.0%0.25%	65.0%0.06%	20.4%3.33%	63.6%0.01%	34.4%0.98%		100.0%<0.01%	55.6%0.02%	41.3%0.83%	71.9%0.03%
New England Patriots	10.8%0.08%	6.2%0.16%	18.8%0.02%		16.0%0.03%	6.2%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	10.6%0.21%		15.0%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	24.2%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%
New York Jets	17.3%0.61%	15.7%0.81%	29.6%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	23.1%0.13%	45.3%0.15%	51.6%0.06%	83.3%0.01%	16.6%1.04%	62.5%<0.01%	29.4%0.26%	44.4%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%		31.7%0.20%	75.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.3%5.77%	24.0%8.14%	43.9%1.01%	100.0%0.01%	40.9%1.78%	56.1%1.84%	66.3%0.66%	76.3%0.23%	24.8%7.83%	78.0%0.04%	42.5%2.54%	58.7%0.83%	75.8%0.03%	68.3%0.20%		78.9%0.08%
Tennessee Titans	3.9%0.25%	8.2%0.38%	17.2%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%	6.1%0.07%	29.6%0.03%	25.0%<0.01%		7.2%0.39%	50.0%<0.01%	14.8%0.08%	28.1%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	21.1%0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		62.3%0.15%	100.0%<0.01%	42.1%0.02%	51.5%0.10%	13.0%2.03%	30.0%0.89%	40.0%0.08%	26.7%1.17%	68.2%0.16%	54.5%0.01%	19.1%2.20%	54.3%0.22%	35.0%0.12%	34.2%1.13%	34.2%0.54%
Atlanta Falcons	37.7%0.15%			46.2%0.01%	34.7%0.07%	9.3%1.81%	18.9%0.84%	25.2%0.25%	18.1%1.10%	60.3%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%	12.9%1.92%	52.1%0.38%	27.4%0.28%	24.1%0.52%	22.7%0.53%
Carolina Panthers	0.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	7.1%0.06%	24.2%0.03%	25.0%<0.01%	26.7%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%		13.3%0.06%	25.0%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	14.3%<0.01%	0.0%0.01%
Chicago Bears	57.9%0.02%	53.8%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		52.2%0.02%	6.2%0.37%	11.3%0.11%	16.0%0.03%	14.1%0.19%	61.1%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	11.5%0.28%	31.8%0.04%	29.4%0.03%	19.8%0.12%	19.7%0.07%
Dallas Cowboys	48.5%0.10%	65.3%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	47.8%0.02%		14.8%1.19%	25.1%0.56%	36.4%0.13%	21.1%0.82%	72.7%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	15.5%0.80%	56.5%0.17%	25.9%0.16%	30.4%0.51%	26.9%0.18%
Detroit Lions	87.0%2.03%	90.7%1.81%	92.9%0.06%	93.8%0.37%	85.2%1.19%		68.5%12.05%	80.6%2.86%	69.5%15.32%	94.1%1.68%	94.2%0.15%	56.5%14.01%	90.7%3.64%	79.5%3.91%	74.2%8.98%	74.6%7.37%
Green Bay Packers	70.0%0.89%	81.1%0.84%	75.8%0.03%	88.7%0.11%	74.9%0.56%	31.5%12.05%		63.9%1.23%	49.7%7.96%	85.1%0.80%	87.0%0.08%	38.2%8.90%	82.0%1.76%	63.4%1.65%	56.1%4.47%	55.8%3.81%
Los Angeles Rams	60.0%0.08%	74.8%0.25%	75.0%<0.01%	84.0%0.03%	63.6%0.13%	19.4%2.86%	36.1%1.23%		34.4%1.83%	78.4%0.24%	73.3%0.01%	23.9%3.27%	72.6%0.36%	50.9%0.22%	40.7%1.64%	40.0%0.91%
Minnesota Vikings	73.3%1.17%	81.9%1.10%	73.3%0.03%	85.9%0.19%	78.9%0.82%	30.5%15.32%	50.3%7.96%	65.6%1.83%		85.4%1.08%	86.1%0.07%	37.3%10.59%	81.6%2.29%	62.7%2.30%	57.6%5.76%	57.2%4.90%
New Orleans Saints	31.8%0.16%	39.7%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	38.9%0.02%	27.3%0.06%	5.9%1.68%	14.9%0.80%	21.6%0.24%	14.6%1.08%		100.0%<0.01%	10.0%1.80%	43.6%0.35%	23.5%0.30%	15.6%0.59%	19.5%0.52%
New York Giants	45.5%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	5.8%0.15%	13.0%0.08%	26.7%0.01%	13.9%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%		11.0%0.09%	54.5%0.02%	22.2%0.02%	5.9%0.05%	15.0%0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	80.9%2.20%	87.1%1.92%	86.7%0.06%	88.5%0.28%	84.5%0.80%	43.5%14.01%	61.8%8.90%	76.1%3.27%	62.7%10.59%	90.0%1.80%	89.0%0.09%		87.6%4.28%	73.2%4.10%	67.6%11.54%	69.0%6.12%
San Francisco 49ers	45.7%0.22%	47.9%0.38%	75.0%<0.01%	68.2%0.04%	43.5%0.17%	9.3%3.64%	18.0%1.76%	27.4%0.36%	18.4%2.29%	56.4%0.35%	45.5%0.02%	12.4%4.28%		26.7%0.51%	23.5%2.40%	23.0%1.42%
Seattle Seahawks	65.0%0.12%	72.6%0.28%	62.5%<0.01%	70.6%0.03%	74.1%0.16%	20.5%3.91%	36.6%1.65%	49.1%0.22%	37.3%2.30%	76.5%0.30%	77.8%0.02%	26.8%4.10%	73.3%0.51%		43.1%2.23%	42.5%1.23%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	65.8%1.13%	75.9%0.52%	85.7%<0.01%	80.2%0.12%	69.6%0.51%	25.8%8.98%	43.9%4.47%	59.3%1.64%	42.4%5.76%	84.4%0.59%	94.1%0.05%	32.4%11.54%	76.5%2.40%	56.9%2.23%		49.5%3.59%
Washington Commanders	65.8%0.54%	77.3%0.53%	100.0%0.01%	80.3%0.07%	73.1%0.18%	25.4%7.37%	44.2%3.81%	60.0%0.91%	42.8%4.90%	80.5%0.52%	85.0%0.02%	31.0%6.12%	77.0%1.42%	57.5%1.23%	50.5%3.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		50.9%14.39%	69.3%1.45%	100.0%<0.01%	69.8%2.55%	76.1%1.82%	84.4%0.49%	89.1%0.10%	53.4%15.32%	82.6%0.02%	68.8%3.75%	78.8%0.76%	94.1%0.02%	79.5%0.18%	75.5%2.11%	89.7%0.04%
Buffalo Bills	49.1%14.39%		70.2%1.95%	100.0%<0.01%	67.8%3.01%	75.9%2.16%	85.8%0.60%	89.9%0.10%	52.0%20.58%	87.5%0.02%	67.7%4.37%	80.1%0.81%	90.9%0.01%	85.4%0.18%	73.2%2.86%	93.8%0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	30.7%1.45%	29.8%1.95%			44.5%0.35%	57.9%0.22%	61.1%0.05%	83.3%0.02%	33.0%1.97%		46.0%0.55%	62.5%0.10%	100.0%<0.01%	68.0%0.03%	60.9%0.24%	100.0%<0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%				0.0%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%				100.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	30.2%2.55%	32.2%3.01%	55.5%0.35%	100.0%<0.01%		62.7%0.31%	72.0%0.07%	81.2%0.02%	32.6%2.49%	100.0%<0.01%	54.2%0.60%	60.0%0.14%	85.7%<0.01%	60.0%0.03%	52.0%0.48%	77.8%<0.01%
Houston Texans	23.9%1.82%	24.1%2.16%	42.1%0.22%		37.3%0.31%		59.5%0.04%	85.7%<0.01%	24.9%2.00%	50.0%<0.01%	37.9%0.44%	50.0%0.09%	50.0%<0.01%	62.5%0.02%	50.3%0.29%	100.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	15.6%0.49%	14.2%0.60%	38.9%0.05%		28.0%0.07%	40.5%0.04%		50.0%<0.01%	16.0%0.52%		26.6%0.12%	44.0%0.03%		100.0%<0.01%	28.0%0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	10.9%0.10%	10.1%0.10%	16.7%0.02%		18.8%0.02%	14.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		11.4%0.10%		15.4%0.03%	16.7%<0.01%		66.7%<0.01%	22.2%0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	46.6%15.32%	48.0%20.58%	67.0%1.97%	100.0%0.01%	67.4%2.49%	75.1%2.00%	84.0%0.52%	88.6%0.10%		80.0%0.02%	65.6%3.56%	76.0%0.86%	94.4%0.02%	87.1%0.21%	72.0%2.88%	93.8%0.03%
Las Vegas Raiders	17.4%0.02%	12.5%0.02%			0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			20.0%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			40.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Chargers	31.2%3.75%	32.3%4.37%	54.0%0.55%	100.0%<0.01%	45.8%0.60%	62.1%0.44%	73.4%0.12%	84.6%0.03%	34.4%3.56%	100.0%<0.01%		69.7%0.25%	100.0%<0.01%	57.4%0.05%	58.3%0.72%	90.9%0.01%
Miami Dolphins	21.2%0.76%	19.9%0.81%	37.5%0.10%		40.0%0.14%	50.0%0.09%	56.0%0.03%	83.3%<0.01%	24.0%0.86%	100.0%<0.01%	30.3%0.25%		100.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	42.1%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots	5.9%0.02%	9.1%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		14.3%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			5.6%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			33.3%<0.01%
New York Jets	20.5%0.18%	14.6%0.18%	32.0%0.03%		40.0%0.03%	37.5%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	12.9%0.21%		42.6%0.05%	20.0%<0.01%			27.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	24.5%2.11%	26.8%2.86%	39.1%0.24%	0.0%<0.01%	48.0%0.48%	49.7%0.29%	72.0%0.08%	77.8%0.03%	28.0%2.88%	60.0%<0.01%	41.7%0.72%	57.9%0.12%	66.7%<0.01%	72.4%0.03%		100.0%<0.01%
Tennessee Titans	10.3%0.04%	6.2%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		22.2%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			6.2%0.03%		9.1%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		70.6%0.02%		0.0%<0.01%	70.6%0.02%	16.8%0.80%	25.1%0.22%	44.0%0.03%	26.5%0.29%	75.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	21.7%0.54%	72.7%0.02%	42.4%0.03%	31.6%0.20%	37.7%0.13%
Atlanta Falcons	29.4%0.02%				33.3%<0.01%	10.9%0.53%	20.2%0.17%	26.1%0.02%	23.3%0.18%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	11.9%0.35%	42.9%0.01%	21.4%0.04%	26.7%0.07%	28.4%0.08%
Carolina Panthers						0.0%0.01%	25.0%<0.01%		40.0%<0.01%			11.1%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears	100.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%	9.1%0.07%	33.3%0.02%	16.7%<0.01%	9.1%0.02%			7.5%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%	20.0%<0.01%	7.7%0.01%	30.8%0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	29.4%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%		13.3%0.40%	19.3%0.14%	30.0%0.02%	19.5%0.17%	100.0%<0.01%		16.4%0.22%	42.9%0.01%	37.5%0.03%	27.2%0.09%	34.8%0.05%
Detroit Lions	83.2%0.80%	89.1%0.53%	100.0%0.01%	90.9%0.07%	86.7%0.40%		67.3%7.00%	77.2%1.48%	66.4%8.95%	92.7%0.44%	88.5%0.03%	57.6%19.71%	86.6%1.19%	77.7%2.03%	72.3%6.88%	72.0%4.74%
Green Bay Packers	74.9%0.22%	79.8%0.17%	75.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.02%	80.7%0.14%	32.7%7.00%		67.2%0.47%	48.8%2.92%	85.1%0.11%	90.0%0.01%	40.0%6.00%	81.9%0.31%	61.6%0.66%	56.1%2.06%	56.4%1.57%
Los Angeles Rams	56.0%0.03%	73.9%0.02%		83.3%<0.01%	70.0%0.02%	22.8%1.48%	32.8%0.47%		31.6%0.54%	66.7%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	28.1%1.05%	80.5%0.04%	46.3%0.07%	38.7%0.36%	39.5%0.25%
Minnesota Vikings	73.5%0.29%	76.7%0.18%	60.0%<0.01%	90.9%0.02%	80.5%0.17%	33.6%8.95%	51.2%2.92%	68.4%0.54%		86.6%0.13%	63.6%0.01%	40.8%8.01%	80.5%0.47%	62.5%0.77%	56.7%2.54%	57.7%1.82%
New Orleans Saints	25.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	7.3%0.44%	14.9%0.11%	33.3%0.01%	13.4%0.13%			8.3%0.26%	44.4%<0.01%	29.2%0.02%	17.3%0.05%	29.0%0.06%
New York Giants	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%				11.5%0.03%	10.0%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	36.4%0.01%			0.0%0.02%			40.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	78.3%0.54%	88.1%0.35%	88.9%<0.01%	92.5%0.05%	83.6%0.22%	42.4%19.71%	60.0%6.00%	71.9%1.05%	59.2%8.01%	91.7%0.26%	100.0%0.02%		86.8%0.81%	70.9%1.42%	67.5%4.39%	68.0%2.80%
San Francisco 49ers	27.3%0.02%	57.1%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%	13.4%1.19%	18.1%0.31%	19.5%0.04%	19.5%0.47%	55.6%<0.01%		13.2%0.81%		36.0%0.05%	28.1%0.24%	27.2%0.17%
Seattle Seahawks	57.6%0.03%	78.6%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	62.5%0.03%	22.3%2.03%	38.4%0.66%	53.7%0.07%	37.5%0.77%	70.8%0.02%		29.1%1.42%	64.0%0.05%		43.1%0.50%	40.9%0.37%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	68.4%0.20%	73.3%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	92.3%0.01%	72.8%0.09%	27.7%6.88%	43.9%2.06%	61.3%0.36%	43.3%2.54%	82.7%0.05%	60.0%<0.01%	32.5%4.39%	71.9%0.24%	56.9%0.50%		51.0%1.06%
Washington Commanders	62.3%0.13%	71.6%0.08%	50.0%<0.01%	69.2%0.01%	65.2%0.05%	28.0%4.74%	43.6%1.57%	60.5%0.25%	42.3%1.82%	71.0%0.06%		32.0%2.80%	72.8%0.17%	59.1%0.37%	49.0%1.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens	78.5%0.14%	82.3%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	60.0%<0.01%	77.6%0.05%	45.2%9.14%	59.3%2.41%	73.8%0.33%	60.5%3.04%	75.0%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	49.4%6.35%	84.0%0.16%	65.3%0.52%	63.2%1.78%	62.8%1.19%
Buffalo Bills	76.3%0.15%	75.0%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%	88.9%<0.01%	82.6%0.07%	42.5%10.69%	57.1%2.80%	70.2%0.41%	56.9%3.57%	76.5%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	49.5%7.35%	75.8%0.16%	66.2%0.54%	59.7%2.03%	61.6%1.42%
Cincinnati Bengals	88.9%<0.01%	76.9%0.01%			75.0%<0.01%	29.5%0.91%	40.4%0.22%	51.7%0.03%	43.7%0.33%	50.0%<0.01%		33.9%0.61%	60.0%0.01%	53.7%0.04%	45.2%0.17%	50.8%0.12%
Cleveland Browns							0.0%<0.01%					0.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos	51.6%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%		75.0%<0.01%	40.0%<0.01%	29.6%1.33%	40.9%0.35%	50.9%0.05%	45.6%0.44%	100.0%<0.01%		38.1%0.94%	68.4%0.02%	57.1%0.06%	47.7%0.28%	50.0%0.18%
Houston Texans	50.0%0.01%	71.4%<0.01%			62.5%<0.01%	24.4%0.71%	35.2%0.20%	45.5%0.02%	32.9%0.23%	66.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	27.6%0.56%	62.5%0.02%	47.7%0.04%	37.9%0.14%	46.1%0.10%
Indianapolis Colts	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%		19.3%0.14%	12.9%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	44.7%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%		16.7%0.10%	50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	14.3%0.02%	11.8%0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars					100.0%<0.01%	17.6%0.02%	25.0%<0.01%		11.1%<0.01%			14.3%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	71.7%0.17%	83.1%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%	85.7%<0.01%	80.0%0.07%	40.9%9.84%	55.4%2.73%	66.2%0.37%	55.2%3.33%	77.5%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	46.3%6.89%	79.1%0.15%	64.0%0.52%	61.8%1.80%	61.0%1.39%
Las Vegas Raiders						0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Chargers	66.7%0.03%	46.7%0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	88.9%<0.01%	29.6%1.90%	43.9%0.53%	55.7%0.07%	45.3%0.63%	100.0%<0.01%		36.6%1.41%	79.4%0.03%	48.3%0.12%	47.0%0.38%	52.6%0.27%
Miami Dolphins	60.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%			50.0%<0.01%	18.8%0.29%	35.3%0.08%	37.5%<0.01%	29.7%0.11%	50.0%<0.01%		24.1%0.20%	100.0%<0.01%	41.7%0.01%	40.0%0.06%	46.3%0.04%
New England Patriots						50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
New York Jets	100.0%<0.01%					15.4%0.05%	33.3%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	18.2%0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		30.8%0.04%	100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%	42.9%0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	75.0%0.02%	60.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	23.9%1.10%	34.9%0.27%	48.4%0.03%	34.9%0.37%	66.7%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	30.7%0.77%	66.7%0.01%	52.2%0.07%	41.1%0.20%	38.7%0.17%
Tennessee Titans						0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%
Arizona Cardinals																	21.5%0.14%	23.7%0.15%	11.1%<0.01%		48.4%0.03%	50.0%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		28.3%0.17%		33.3%0.03%	40.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	25.0%0.02%
Atlanta Falcons																	17.7%0.06%	25.0%0.07%	23.1%0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	28.6%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		16.9%0.07%		53.3%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%			40.0%<0.01%
Carolina Panthers																	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%							50.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears																	40.0%<0.01%	11.1%<0.01%			25.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		14.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%				0.0%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys																	22.4%0.05%	17.4%0.07%	25.0%<0.01%		60.0%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	20.0%0.07%		11.1%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%			75.0%<0.01%
Detroit Lions																	54.8%9.14%	57.5%10.69%	70.5%0.91%		70.4%1.33%	75.6%0.71%	80.7%0.14%	82.4%0.02%	59.1%9.84%	100.0%<0.01%	70.4%1.90%	81.2%0.29%	50.0%<0.01%	84.6%0.05%	76.1%1.10%	100.0%<0.01%
Green Bay Packers																	40.7%2.41%	42.9%2.80%	59.6%0.22%	100.0%<0.01%	59.1%0.35%	64.8%0.20%	87.1%0.03%	75.0%<0.01%	44.6%2.73%	50.0%<0.01%	56.1%0.53%	64.7%0.08%	0.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.01%	65.1%0.27%	100.0%<0.01%
Los Angeles Rams																	26.2%0.33%	29.8%0.41%	48.3%0.03%		49.1%0.05%	54.5%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		33.8%0.37%		44.3%0.07%	62.5%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	51.6%0.03%
Minnesota Vikings																	39.5%3.04%	43.1%3.57%	56.3%0.33%		54.4%0.44%	67.1%0.23%	55.3%0.05%	88.9%<0.01%	44.8%3.33%	100.0%<0.01%	54.7%0.63%	70.3%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%	81.8%0.01%	65.1%0.37%	100.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints																	25.0%0.02%	23.5%0.05%	50.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		22.5%0.04%		0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
New York Giants																	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%				100.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%						0.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles																	50.6%6.35%	50.5%7.35%	66.1%0.61%	100.0%<0.01%	61.9%0.94%	72.4%0.56%	83.3%0.10%	85.7%0.01%	53.7%6.89%	100.0%<0.01%	63.4%1.41%	75.9%0.20%	100.0%<0.01%	69.2%0.04%	69.3%0.77%	100.0%<0.01%
San Francisco 49ers																	16.0%0.16%	24.2%0.16%	40.0%0.01%		31.6%0.02%	37.5%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%		20.9%0.15%		20.6%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	33.3%0.01%
Seattle Seahawks																	34.7%0.52%	33.8%0.54%	46.3%0.04%		42.9%0.06%	52.3%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	36.0%0.52%		51.7%0.12%	58.3%0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	47.8%0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																	36.8%1.78%	40.3%2.03%	54.8%0.17%		52.3%0.28%	62.1%0.14%	85.7%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%	38.2%1.80%		53.0%0.38%	60.0%0.06%		62.5%<0.01%	58.9%0.20%
Washington Commanders																	37.2%1.19%	38.4%1.42%	49.2%0.12%		50.0%0.18%	53.9%0.10%	88.2%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	39.0%1.39%		47.4%0.27%	53.7%0.04%		57.1%0.01%	61.3%0.17%	100.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Detroit Lions	100.00%	70.78%	45.33%	26.35%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	68.96%	34.10%	15.57%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens	80.62%	44.58%	26.24%	13.43%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	64.99%	45.21%	22.19%	12.41%	Won Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	72.76%	41.00%	23.95%	11.99%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Minnesota Vikings	63.84%	26.55%	10.72%	5.06%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	35.01%	11.77%	6.69%	3.36%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	53.67%	19.97%	6.73%	2.86%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Chargers	61.00%	20.18%	7.05%	2.63%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Washington Commanders	46.33%	15.30%	5.36%	2.30%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	27.24%	9.61%	4.06%	1.56%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	36.16%	10.41%	2.98%	1.12%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Houston Texans	39.00%	9.26%	2.46%	0.68%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.38%	6.40%	2.13%	0.68%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens						80.6%100.00%
Buffalo Bills			72.8%100.00%
Denver Broncos		27.2%100.00%
Houston Texans					39.0%100.00%
Los Angeles Chargers				61.0%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.4%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Green Bay Packers				35.0%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams			36.2%100.00%
Minnesota Vikings		63.8%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles	65.0%100.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers						53.7%100.00%
Washington Commanders					46.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		47.9%58.69%		80.2%8.49%		71.9%13.44%
Buffalo Bills	52.1%58.69%			79.7%5.52%		70.4%8.55%
Denver Broncos					35.3%27.24%
Houston Texans	19.8%8.49%	20.3%5.52%			23.9%22.86%		46.9%2.13%
Kansas City Chiefs			64.7%27.24%	76.1%22.86%		66.6%35.83%	71.7%14.07%
Los Angeles Chargers	28.1%13.44%	29.6%8.55%			33.4%35.83%		59.6%3.19%
Pittsburgh Steelers				53.1%2.13%	28.3%14.07%	40.4%3.19%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Detroit Lions		66.4%35.01%	79.8%12.65%	68.3%22.25%			73.9%30.09%
Green Bay Packers	33.6%35.01%
Los Angeles Rams	20.2%12.65%				23.8%10.78%	38.6%6.81%	45.2%5.92%
Minnesota Vikings	31.7%22.25%				35.6%19.31%	54.5%11.96%	59.1%10.32%
Philadelphia Eagles			76.2%10.78%	64.4%19.31%		70.4%34.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			61.4%6.81%	45.5%11.96%	29.6%34.90%
Washington Commanders	26.1%30.09%		54.8%5.92%	40.9%10.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens			65.7%5.81%	78.5%2.63%	53.7%30.40%	70.2%5.74%
Buffalo Bills				77.0%2.84%	53.1%28.96%	68.5%6.24%	71.7%2.97%
Denver Broncos	34.3%5.81%			59.5%0.96%		50.9%1.96%	56.7%0.88%
Houston Texans	21.5%2.63%	23.0%2.84%	40.5%0.96%		27.8%2.52%		49.8%0.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	46.3%30.40%	46.9%28.96%		72.2%2.52%		64.0%5.54%	69.4%1.54%
Los Angeles Chargers	29.8%5.74%	31.5%6.24%	49.1%1.96%		36.0%5.54%		59.6%0.70%
Pittsburgh Steelers		28.3%2.97%	43.3%0.88%	50.2%0.31%	30.6%1.54%	40.4%0.70%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Detroit Lions			76.8%5.40%	66.5%13.57%	56.6%32.98%	71.4%13.86%	71.9%4.97%
Green Bay Packers			66.1%1.78%	50.8%4.19%		58.6%3.31%	58.2%2.49%
Los Angeles Rams	23.2%5.40%	33.9%1.78%			28.8%1.78%	39.9%0.77%	44.3%0.68%
Minnesota Vikings	33.5%13.57%	49.2%4.19%			40.4%5.02%	53.9%2.04%	57.5%1.73%
Philadelphia Eagles	43.4%32.98%		71.2%1.78%	59.6%5.02%			66.7%5.43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	28.6%13.86%	41.4%3.31%	60.1%0.77%	46.1%2.04%
Washington Commanders	28.1%4.97%	41.8%2.49%	55.7%0.68%	42.5%1.73%	33.3%5.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	45.9%11.88%	55.8%1.71%	68.6%0.79%	57.5%2.86%	49.6%5.81%	61.8%1.78%	61.0%1.42%
Buffalo Bills	45.7%10.95%	52.7%1.63%	66.0%0.71%	57.2%2.54%	47.3%5.33%	60.9%1.54%	59.6%1.24%
Denver Broncos	33.7%1.81%	37.1%0.29%	49.6%0.12%	43.8%0.44%	37.8%0.90%	47.1%0.28%	51.7%0.23%
Houston Texans	23.7%1.13%	27.5%0.14%	38.1%0.08%	34.1%0.27%	25.3%0.58%	38.8%0.15%	39.0%0.12%
Kansas City Chiefs	41.2%15.39%	49.2%2.30%	60.9%1.02%	51.0%3.64%	42.8%7.56%	56.2%2.34%	57.4%1.86%
Los Angeles Chargers	32.7%3.18%	38.7%0.49%	54.5%0.19%	44.5%0.75%	33.8%1.57%	52.8%0.49%	45.8%0.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	26.9%1.00%	36.8%0.14%	56.7%0.06%	40.2%0.22%	27.2%0.44%	42.4%0.15%	44.2%0.12%
Detroit Lions								54.1%11.88%	54.3%10.95%	66.3%1.81%	76.3%1.13%	58.8%15.39%	67.3%3.18%	73.1%1.00%
Green Bay Packers								44.2%1.71%	47.3%1.63%	62.9%0.29%	72.5%0.14%	50.8%2.30%	61.3%0.49%	63.2%0.14%
Los Angeles Rams								31.4%0.79%	34.0%0.71%	50.4%0.12%	61.9%0.08%	39.1%1.02%	45.5%0.19%	43.3%0.06%
Minnesota Vikings								42.5%2.86%	42.8%2.54%	56.2%0.44%	65.9%0.27%	49.0%3.64%	55.5%0.75%	59.8%0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles								50.4%5.81%	52.7%5.33%	62.2%0.90%	74.7%0.58%	57.2%7.56%	66.2%1.57%	72.8%0.44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers								38.2%1.78%	39.1%1.54%	52.9%0.28%	61.2%0.15%	43.8%2.34%	47.2%0.49%	57.6%0.15%
Washington Commanders								39.0%1.42%	40.4%1.24%	48.3%0.23%	61.0%0.12%	42.6%1.86%	54.2%0.36%	55.8%0.12%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Detroit Lions 26.35% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

32.84%

Win Prob

66.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

41.20%

Win Prob

56.63%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.34%

Win Prob

58.81%

Kansas City Chiefs 15.57% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

34.59%

Win Prob

66.57%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

41.26%

Win Prob

46.28%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

40.72%

Win Prob

41.19%

Baltimore Ravens 13.43% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

80.62%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

63.04%

Win Prob

47.89%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

62.23%

Win Prob

53.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

40.56%

Win Prob

45.87%

Philadelphia Eagles 12.41% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.99%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

54.32%

Win Prob

70.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

64.46%

Win Prob

43.37%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.81%

Win Prob

57.17%

Buffalo Bills 11.99% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.76%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

74.59%

Win Prob

52.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

64.16%

Win Prob

53.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

41.73%

Win Prob

45.69%

Minnesota Vikings 5.06% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.84%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

26.57%

Win Prob

31.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

42.35%

Win Prob

33.47%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

35.20%

Win Prob

49.02%

Green Bay Packers 3.36% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.01%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.62%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

31.81%

Win Prob

50.76%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.68%

Win Prob

50.81%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.86% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Commanders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

51.79%

Win Prob

29.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

58.83%

Win Prob

28.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

35.81%

Win Prob

43.77%

Los Angeles Chargers 2.63% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

59.35%

Win Prob

33.43%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

28.24%

Win Prob

35.96%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

39.62%

Win Prob

32.74%

Washington Commanders 2.30% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

51.23%

Win Prob

26.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

33.72%

Win Prob

33.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.54%

Win Prob

42.60%

Denver Broncos 1.56% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.24%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

49.11%

Win Prob

34.34%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

39.06%

Win Prob

33.68%

Los Angeles Rams 1.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.16%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Commanders

Matchup

25.66%

Win Prob

45.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

42.08%

Win Prob

23.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

35.84%

Win Prob

39.14%

Houston Texans 0.68% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

59.03%

Win Prob

23.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

28.44%

Win Prob

27.81%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

39.26%

Win Prob

23.71%

Pittsburgh Steelers 0.68% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

19.38%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

62.20%

Win Prob

28.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

39.37%

Win Prob

28.28%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

39.56%

Win Prob

26.93%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2024-09-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 28-34	1453.06	1565.36	31.64%	68.14%	-17.68	0-1
2024-09-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 41-10	1435.38	1475.07	47.16%	52.60%	+66.78	1-1
2024-09-22	Detroit Lions	L 13-20	1502.16	1527.87	49.17%	50.59%	-29.67	1-2
2024-09-29	Washington Commanders	L 14-42	1472.49	1459.21	54.76%	45.00%	-66.07	1-3
2024-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-23	1406.42	1576.60	24.92%	74.89%	+17.06	2-3
2024-10-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-34	1423.48	1558.94	28.83%	70.96%	-30.15	2-4
2024-10-21	Los Angeles Chargers	W 17-15	1393.33	1533.14	33.41%	66.37%	+21.40	3-4
2024-10-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 28-27	1414.73	1390.23	50.41%	49.34%	+11.25	4-4
2024-11-03	Chicago Bears	W 29-9	1425.98	1532.45	37.80%	61.97%	+63.17	5-4
2024-11-10	New York Jets	W 31-6	1489.15	1458.91	57.17%	42.59%	+48.58	6-4
2024-11-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-16	1537.73	1477.66	55.51%	44.25%	-40.02	6-5
2024-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-23	1497.71	1642.66	27.73%	72.07%	-6.33	6-6
2024-12-08	Seattle Seahawks	L 18-30	1491.38	1536.17	46.43%	53.33%	-36.68	6-7
2024-12-15	New England Patriots	W 30-17	1454.70	1311.74	71.84%	27.96%	+23.00	7-7
2024-12-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 30-36	1477.70	1254.84	76.08%	23.74%	-42.46	7-8
2024-12-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-13	1435.24	1565.70	29.43%	70.37%	-13.43	7-9
2025-01-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 47-24	1421.81	1447.29	49.20%	50.56%	+55.29	8-9
2024-09-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-18	1466.90	1501.58	47.88%	51.88%	-30.89	0-1
2024-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-21	1436.01	1537.50	33.00%	66.78%	+15.22	1-1
2024-09-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-22	1451.23	1599.38	32.35%	67.43%	-16.50	1-2
2024-09-29	New Orleans Saints	W 26-24	1434.73	1600.24	30.21%	69.58%	+22.42	2-2
2024-10-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 36-30	1457.15	1549.21	39.77%	60.00%	+33.50	3-2
2024-10-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 38-20	1490.65	1337.08	68.11%	31.67%	+30.66	4-2
2024-10-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-34	1521.31	1457.77	61.78%	37.99%	-62.97	4-3
2024-10-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-26	1458.34	1548.68	34.43%	65.35%	+33.30	5-3
2024-11-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-21	1491.64	1463.95	56.81%	42.95%	+24.00	6-3
2024-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1515.64	1379.99	65.83%	33.94%	-25.99	6-4
2024-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-38	1489.65	1520.29	42.54%	57.22%	-54.89	6-5
2024-12-01	Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-17	1434.76	1586.77	31.87%	67.92%	-14.55	6-6
2024-12-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-42	1420.21	1648.98	19.16%	80.68%	-20.02	6-7
2024-12-16	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 15-9	1400.19	1258.99	66.55%	33.23%	+18.57	7-7
2024-12-22	New York Giants	W 34-7	1418.76	1254.03	74.30%	25.51%	+30.24	8-7
2024-12-29	@ Washington Commanders	L 24-30	1449.00	1580.26	29.33%	70.46%	-16.39	8-8
2025-01-05	Carolina Panthers	L 38-44	1432.61	1278.29	73.14%	26.66%	-40.83	8-9
2024-09-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1573.24	1562.85	48.38%	51.37%	-29.20	0-1
2024-09-15	Las Vegas Raiders	L 23-26	1544.04	1456.83	64.94%	34.84%	-25.63	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-25	1518.41	1524.14	46.07%	53.68%	+21.20	1-2
2024-09-29	Buffalo Bills	W 35-10	1539.61	1664.48	35.35%	64.43%	+73.42	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-38	1613.03	1480.31	65.45%	34.32%	+13.57	3-2
2024-10-13	Washington Commanders	W 30-23	1626.60	1560.27	62.16%	37.61%	+22.70	4-2
2024-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-31	1649.30	1579.62	56.87%	42.89%	+30.94	5-2
2024-10-27	@ Cleveland Browns	L 24-29	1680.24	1356.37	85.03%	14.84%	-43.30	5-3
2024-11-03	Denver Broncos	W 41-10	1636.94	1576.28	61.39%	38.38%	+48.75	6-3
2024-11-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-34	1685.69	1504.05	76.11%	23.71%	+5.41	7-3
2024-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-18	1691.10	1635.26	54.91%	44.85%	-17.70	7-4
2024-11-25	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 30-23	1673.40	1613.49	55.49%	44.27%	+26.72	8-4
2024-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-24	1700.12	1702.22	52.56%	47.20%	-26.80	8-5
2024-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 35-14	1673.32	1264.10	90.27%	9.64%	+10.06	9-5
2024-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-17	1683.38	1612.24	62.80%	36.97%	+34.78	10-5
2024-12-25	@ Houston Texans	W 31-2	1718.16	1534.78	71.71%	28.09%	+34.51	11-5
2025-01-04	Cleveland Browns	W 35-10	1752.67	1283.03	94.34%	5.60%	+6.38	12-5
2024-09-08	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-28	1565.36	1453.06	68.14%	31.64%	+17.68	1-0
2024-09-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-10	1583.04	1534.76	53.83%	45.93%	+48.01	2-0
2024-09-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 47-10	1631.05	1453.08	75.72%	24.09%	+33.43	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-35	1664.48	1539.61	64.43%	35.35%	-73.42	3-1
2024-10-06	@ Houston Texans	L 20-23	1591.06	1504.11	59.29%	40.48%	-23.41	3-2
2024-10-14	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1567.65	1494.38	57.38%	42.39%	+16.74	4-2
2024-10-20	Tennessee Titans	W 34-10	1584.39	1416.68	74.63%	25.18%	+28.15	5-2
2024-10-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-10	1612.54	1520.75	59.96%	39.81%	+41.62	6-2
2024-11-03	Miami Dolphins	W 30-27	1654.16	1378.98	84.50%	15.36%	+6.07	7-2
2024-11-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-20	1660.23	1465.91	72.97%	26.84%	+19.36	8-2
2024-11-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-21	1679.59	1729.00	45.77%	53.99%	+36.93	9-2
2024-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 35-10	1716.52	1518.03	77.83%	22.00%	+25.09	10-2
2024-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 42-44	1741.61	1485.76	79.35%	20.48%	-25.56	10-3
2024-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 48-42	1716.05	1787.75	36.89%	62.88%	+35.11	11-3
2024-12-22	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1751.16	1288.74	94.11%	5.83%	+2.29	12-3
2024-12-29	New York Jets	W 40-14	1753.45	1371.46	90.97%	8.95%	+10.40	13-3
2025-01-05	@ New England Patriots	L 16-23	1763.85	1262.02	94.04%	5.89%	-18.88	13-4
2024-09-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-47	1438.64	1511.14	36.78%	62.99%	-51.05	0-1
2024-09-15	Los Angeles Chargers	L 3-26	1387.59	1516.17	34.86%	64.91%	-38.15	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 36-22	1349.44	1482.47	29.12%	70.67%	+60.26	1-2
2024-09-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-34	1409.70	1445.94	47.65%	52.10%	-34.37	1-3
2024-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-36	1375.33	1477.78	32.88%	66.90%	-38.25	1-4
2024-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-38	1337.08	1490.65	31.67%	68.11%	-30.66	1-5
2024-10-20	@ Washington Commanders	L 7-40	1306.42	1537.56	18.95%	80.89%	-24.83	1-6
2024-10-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-28	1281.59	1563.60	14.86%	85.01%	-12.68	1-7
2024-11-03	New Orleans Saints	W 23-22	1268.91	1394.70	35.23%	64.55%	+14.71	2-7
2024-11-10	New York Giants	W 20-17	1283.62	1352.78	42.96%	56.80%	+22.43	3-7
2024-11-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-30	1306.05	1692.07	10.86%	89.03%	-4.29	3-8
2024-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-26	1301.76	1520.80	24.14%	75.68%	-9.54	3-9
2024-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-22	1292.22	1729.02	6.69%	93.24%	-3.73	3-10
2024-12-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-30	1288.49	1401.85	36.87%	62.90%	-33.65	3-11
2024-12-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 36-30	1254.84	1477.70	23.74%	76.08%	+42.46	4-11
2024-12-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-48	1297.30	1587.22	14.29%	85.58%	-19.01	4-12
2025-01-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-38	1278.29	1432.61	26.66%	73.14%	+40.83	5-12
2024-09-08	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1478.96	1465.46	54.79%	44.96%	+27.14	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Houston Texans	L 13-19	1506.10	1510.00	46.33%	53.42%	-25.89	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-21	1480.21	1434.38	53.48%	46.28%	-27.27	1-2
2024-09-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-18	1452.94	1435.86	55.30%	44.45%	+24.84	2-2
2024-10-06	Carolina Panthers	W 36-10	1477.78	1375.33	66.90%	32.88%	+38.25	3-2
2024-10-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-16	1516.03	1425.84	65.32%	34.45%	+34.27	4-2
2024-10-27	@ Washington Commanders	L 15-18	1550.30	1562.39	45.17%	54.59%	-17.85	4-3
2024-11-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 9-29	1532.45	1425.98	61.97%	37.80%	-63.17	4-4
2024-11-10	New England Patriots	L 3-19	1469.28	1309.77	73.72%	26.08%	-67.19	4-5
2024-11-17	Green Bay Packers	L 19-20	1402.09	1584.93	28.15%	71.65%	-6.43	4-6
2024-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 27-30	1395.66	1633.89	22.18%	77.65%	-8.76	4-7
2024-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1386.90	1771.62	8.82%	91.09%	-3.48	4-8
2024-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-38	1383.42	1492.93	31.99%	67.80%	-36.49	4-9
2024-12-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 12-30	1346.93	1669.01	12.18%	87.71%	-11.78	4-10
2024-12-22	Detroit Lions	L 17-34	1335.15	1752.64	9.23%	90.68%	-8.67	4-11
2024-12-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-6	1326.48	1521.04	26.81%	72.99%	-10.60	4-12
2025-01-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-22	1315.88	1696.93	8.99%	90.92%	+29.28	5-12
2024-09-08	New England Patriots	L 10-16	1518.05	1455.52	61.64%	38.13%	-34.41	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 25-26	1483.64	1592.05	32.13%	67.66%	-7.33	0-2
2024-09-23	Washington Commanders	L 33-38	1476.31	1428.84	59.57%	40.19%	-30.37	0-3
2024-09-29	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-24	1445.94	1409.70	52.10%	47.65%	+34.37	1-3
2024-10-06	Baltimore Ravens	L 38-41	1480.31	1613.03	34.32%	65.45%	-13.57	1-4
2024-10-13	@ New York Giants	W 17-7	1466.74	1460.55	47.78%	51.97%	+37.48	2-4
2024-10-20	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-14	1504.22	1377.57	64.66%	35.11%	+21.20	3-4
2024-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-37	1525.42	1558.46	48.11%	51.64%	-49.07	3-5
2024-11-03	Las Vegas Raiders	W 41-24	1476.35	1346.10	70.34%	29.45%	+27.70	4-5
2024-11-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 34-35	1504.05	1685.69	23.71%	76.11%	-5.40	4-6
2024-11-17	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 27-34	1498.65	1593.02	33.91%	65.87%	-20.47	4-7
2024-12-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 38-44	1478.18	1609.53	34.50%	65.28%	-19.29	4-8
2024-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-20	1458.89	1431.36	50.85%	48.91%	+29.51	5-8
2024-12-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 37-27	1488.40	1334.65	68.13%	31.65%	+22.84	6-8
2024-12-22	Cleveland Browns	W 24-6	1511.24	1332.28	75.83%	23.99%	+23.22	7-8
2024-12-28	Denver Broncos	W 30-24	1534.46	1590.73	44.79%	54.97%	+30.70	8-8
2025-01-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 19-17	1565.16	1546.56	49.56%	50.19%	+16.18	9-8
2024-09-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-33	1500.55	1546.50	46.26%	53.49%	-42.21	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 18-13	1458.34	1481.73	43.56%	56.20%	+28.65	1-1
2024-09-22	New York Giants	L 15-21	1486.99	1398.35	65.12%	34.65%	-36.35	1-2
2024-09-29	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 16-20	1450.64	1422.21	50.98%	48.78%	-23.26	1-3
2024-10-06	@ Washington Commanders	L 13-34	1427.38	1525.28	33.46%	66.32%	-34.98	1-4
2024-10-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-20	1392.40	1497.89	32.49%	67.29%	-14.83	1-5
2024-10-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1377.57	1504.22	35.11%	64.66%	-21.20	1-6
2024-10-27	Baltimore Ravens	W 29-24	1356.37	1680.24	14.84%	85.03%	+43.31	2-6
2024-11-03	Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-27	1399.68	1546.03	32.58%	67.20%	-30.65	2-7
2024-11-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-35	1369.03	1405.98	41.65%	58.11%	-43.55	2-8
2024-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-19	1325.48	1652.96	14.58%	85.29%	+43.44	3-8
2024-12-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 32-41	1368.92	1588.01	20.04%	79.80%	-13.71	3-9
2024-12-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1355.21	1628.81	15.48%	84.38%	-12.73	3-10
2024-12-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-21	1342.48	1709.53	11.97%	87.92%	-10.20	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-24	1332.28	1511.24	23.99%	75.83%	-23.22	3-12
2024-12-29	Miami Dolphins	L 3-20	1309.06	1496.09	27.67%	72.13%	-26.03	3-13
2025-01-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-35	1283.03	1752.67	5.60%	94.34%	-6.38	3-14
2024-09-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 33-17	1546.50	1500.55	53.49%	46.26%	+42.21	1-0
2024-09-15	New Orleans Saints	L 19-44	1588.71	1562.19	56.64%	43.12%	-64.57	1-1
2024-09-22	Baltimore Ravens	L 25-28	1524.14	1518.41	53.68%	46.07%	-21.20	1-2
2024-09-26	@ New York Giants	W 20-15	1502.94	1434.71	56.66%	43.10%	+21.98	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1524.92	1565.34	41.17%	58.59%	+23.14	3-2
2024-10-13	Detroit Lions	L 9-47	1548.06	1598.88	45.57%	54.19%	-64.07	3-3
2024-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-30	1483.99	1563.50	35.85%	63.92%	-20.04	3-4
2024-11-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1463.95	1491.64	42.95%	56.81%	-24.00	3-5
2024-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-34	1439.95	1619.10	28.58%	71.21%	-34.51	3-6
2024-11-18	Houston Texans	L 10-34	1405.44	1508.22	38.30%	61.47%	-42.81	3-7
2024-11-24	@ Washington Commanders	W 34-26	1362.63	1557.95	22.31%	77.51%	+49.95	4-7
2024-11-28	New York Giants	W 27-20	1412.58	1296.04	68.67%	31.12%	+18.78	5-7
2024-12-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-27	1431.36	1458.89	48.91%	50.85%	-29.51	5-8
2024-12-15	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-14	1401.85	1288.49	62.90%	36.87%	+33.66	6-8
2024-12-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-24	1435.51	1610.00	29.13%	70.66%	+22.77	7-8
2024-12-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-41	1458.28	1732.51	15.43%	84.43%	-20.52	7-9
2025-01-05	Washington Commanders	L 19-23	1437.76	1596.66	31.02%	68.77%	-14.16	7-10
2024-09-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-26	1477.59	1495.97	44.27%	55.49%	-24.74	0-1
2024-09-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-13	1452.85	1532.47	41.50%	58.27%	-25.04	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-7	1427.81	1569.52	28.10%	71.70%	+71.21	1-2
2024-09-29	@ New York Jets	W 10-9	1499.02	1523.88	43.35%	56.41%	+12.86	2-2
2024-10-06	Las Vegas Raiders	W 34-18	1511.88	1445.46	62.17%	37.60%	+34.32	3-2
2024-10-13	Los Angeles Chargers	L 16-23	1546.20	1497.07	59.80%	39.96%	-36.07	3-3
2024-10-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-10	1510.13	1482.46	50.87%	48.89%	+53.47	4-3
2024-10-27	Carolina Panthers	W 28-14	1563.60	1281.59	85.01%	14.86%	+12.68	5-3
2024-11-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-41	1576.28	1636.94	38.38%	61.39%	-48.76	5-4
2024-11-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1527.52	1721.77	22.42%	77.40%	-7.23	5-5
2024-11-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-6	1520.29	1489.65	57.22%	42.54%	+54.89	6-5
2024-11-24	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 29-19	1575.18	1289.03	82.06%	17.79%	+12.83	7-5
2024-12-02	Cleveland Browns	W 41-32	1588.01	1368.92	79.80%	20.04%	+13.71	8-5
2024-12-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-13	1601.72	1449.31	72.93%	26.88%	+26.02	9-5
2024-12-19	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 27-34	1627.74	1525.70	61.37%	38.40%	-37.01	9-6
2024-12-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-30	1590.73	1534.46	54.97%	44.79%	-30.70	9-7
2025-01-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-0	1560.03	1766.82	25.45%	74.36%	+34.81	10-7
2024-09-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 26-20	1528.63	1498.91	57.09%	42.67%	+23.84	1-0
2024-09-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-20	1552.47	1544.92	53.94%	45.81%	-24.60	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-13	1527.87	1502.16	50.59%	49.17%	+29.67	2-1
2024-09-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 42-29	1557.54	1581.05	49.48%	50.27%	+41.34	3-1
2024-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 47-9	1598.88	1548.06	54.19%	45.57%	+64.07	4-1
2024-10-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-29	1662.95	1655.19	48.01%	51.75%	+16.69	5-1
2024-10-27	Tennessee Titans	W 52-14	1679.64	1388.53	85.66%	14.21%	+19.97	6-1
2024-11-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-14	1699.61	1614.29	59.06%	40.70%	+29.36	7-1
2024-11-10	@ Houston Texans	W 26-23	1728.97	1518.11	74.80%	25.01%	+9.89	8-1
2024-11-17	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 52-6	1738.86	1390.83	89.23%	10.67%	+16.49	9-1
2024-11-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-6	1755.35	1457.41	83.03%	16.82%	+16.27	10-1
2024-11-28	Chicago Bears	W 23-20	1771.62	1386.90	91.09%	8.82%	+3.48	11-1
2024-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 34-31	1775.10	1665.60	67.79%	31.99%	+12.65	12-1
2024-12-15	Buffalo Bills	L 42-48	1787.75	1716.05	62.88%	36.89%	-35.11	12-2
2024-12-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-17	1752.64	1335.15	90.68%	9.23%	+8.67	13-2
2024-12-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-34	1761.31	1456.37	83.59%	16.26%	+9.09	14-2
2025-01-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-9	1770.40	1709.65	61.40%	38.37%	+41.06	15-2
2024-09-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 29-34	1523.37	1512.81	48.41%	51.35%	-24.69	0-1
2024-09-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 16-10	1498.68	1457.31	58.73%	41.04%	+22.94	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Tennessee Titans	W 30-14	1521.62	1406.94	63.07%	36.70%	+33.49	2-1
2024-09-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 29-31	1555.11	1624.70	42.90%	56.86%	-13.84	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-19	1541.27	1411.02	65.13%	34.64%	+17.67	3-2
2024-10-13	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-13	1558.94	1423.48	70.96%	28.83%	+30.15	4-2
2024-10-20	Houston Texans	W 24-22	1589.09	1558.90	57.16%	42.60%	+13.75	5-2
2024-10-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-27	1602.84	1427.13	70.81%	28.99%	+11.45	6-2
2024-11-03	Detroit Lions	L 14-24	1614.29	1699.61	40.70%	59.06%	-29.36	6-3
2024-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-19	1584.93	1402.09	71.65%	28.15%	+6.42	7-3
2024-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 38-10	1591.35	1571.15	55.75%	44.01%	+53.13	8-3
2024-11-28	Miami Dolphins	W 30-17	1644.48	1481.26	74.13%	25.67%	+21.12	9-3
2024-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 31-34	1665.60	1775.10	31.99%	67.79%	-12.65	9-4
2024-12-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-13	1652.95	1572.85	58.33%	41.43%	+38.97	10-4
2024-12-23	New Orleans Saints	W 34-0	1691.92	1422.71	84.05%	15.81%	+21.03	11-4
2024-12-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 25-27	1712.95	1693.63	49.67%	50.09%	-16.02	11-5
2025-01-05	Chicago Bears	L 22-24	1696.93	1315.88	90.92%	8.99%	-29.27	11-6
2024-09-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-27	1493.90	1473.41	49.84%	49.92%	+16.10	1-0
2024-09-15	Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1510.00	1506.10	53.42%	46.33%	+25.89	2-0
2024-09-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-34	1535.89	1575.82	41.24%	58.52%	-48.88	2-1
2024-09-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1487.01	1419.65	62.29%	37.47%	+17.10	3-1
2024-10-06	Buffalo Bills	W 23-20	1504.11	1591.06	40.48%	59.29%	+23.41	4-1
2024-10-13	@ New England Patriots	W 41-21	1527.52	1366.53	69.03%	30.76%	+31.38	5-1
2024-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 22-24	1558.90	1589.09	42.60%	57.16%	-13.74	5-2
2024-10-27	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1545.16	1503.87	58.71%	41.05%	+16.22	6-2
2024-10-31	@ New York Jets	L 13-21	1561.38	1415.64	67.13%	32.66%	-43.27	6-3
2024-11-10	Detroit Lions	L 23-26	1518.11	1728.97	25.01%	74.80%	-9.89	6-4
2024-11-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-10	1508.22	1405.44	61.47%	38.30%	+42.81	7-4
2024-11-24	Tennessee Titans	L 27-32	1551.03	1353.22	77.76%	22.07%	-39.61	7-5
2024-12-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-20	1511.42	1374.33	66.02%	33.76%	+13.34	8-5
2024-12-15	Miami Dolphins	W 20-12	1524.76	1480.20	59.17%	40.59%	+26.20	9-5
2024-12-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-27	1550.96	1719.74	25.07%	74.74%	-16.18	9-6
2024-12-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 2-31	1534.78	1718.16	28.09%	71.71%	-34.51	9-7
2025-01-05	@ Tennessee Titans	W 23-14	1500.27	1265.41	77.31%	22.51%	+5.13	10-7
2024-09-08	Houston Texans	L 27-29	1473.41	1493.90	49.92%	49.84%	-16.10	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-16	1457.31	1498.68	41.04%	58.73%	-22.93	0-2
2024-09-22	Chicago Bears	W 21-16	1434.38	1480.21	46.28%	53.48%	+27.27	1-2
2024-09-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1461.65	1591.01	34.76%	65.02%	+25.67	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 34-37	1487.32	1402.55	58.98%	40.78%	-23.29	2-3
2024-10-13	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-17	1464.03	1435.97	50.93%	48.83%	+19.28	3-3
2024-10-20	Miami Dolphins	W 16-10	1483.31	1410.79	62.99%	36.78%	+20.56	4-3
2024-10-27	@ Houston Texans	L 20-23	1503.87	1545.16	41.05%	58.71%	-16.22	4-4
2024-11-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-21	1487.65	1583.71	33.69%	66.09%	-21.74	4-5
2024-11-10	Buffalo Bills	L 20-30	1465.91	1660.23	26.84%	72.97%	-19.37	4-6
2024-11-17	@ New York Jets	W 28-27	1446.54	1410.32	52.10%	47.66%	+10.87	5-6
2024-11-24	Detroit Lions	L 6-24	1457.41	1755.35	16.82%	83.03%	-16.27	5-7
2024-12-01	@ New England Patriots	W 25-24	1441.14	1319.91	63.94%	35.83%	+8.17	6-7
2024-12-15	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-31	1449.31	1601.72	26.88%	72.93%	-26.01	6-8
2024-12-22	Tennessee Titans	W 38-30	1423.30	1311.81	68.04%	31.74%	+20.48	7-8
2024-12-29	@ New York Giants	L 33-45	1443.78	1223.79	75.78%	24.04%	-59.81	7-9
2025-01-05	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-23	1383.97	1345.04	58.39%	41.38%	+16.35	8-9
2024-09-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1499.25	1517.25	44.32%	55.43%	-17.52	0-1
2024-09-15	Cleveland Browns	L 13-18	1481.73	1458.34	56.20%	43.56%	-28.65	0-2
2024-09-23	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-47	1453.08	1631.05	24.09%	75.72%	-33.43	0-3
2024-09-29	@ Houston Texans	L 20-24	1419.65	1487.01	37.47%	62.29%	-17.10	0-4
2024-10-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 37-34	1402.55	1487.32	40.78%	58.98%	+23.29	1-4
2024-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-35	1425.84	1516.03	34.45%	65.32%	-34.26	1-5
2024-10-20	New England Patriots	W 32-16	1391.58	1335.14	60.81%	38.96%	+35.55	2-5
2024-10-27	Green Bay Packers	L 27-30	1427.13	1602.84	28.99%	70.81%	-11.46	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-28	1415.67	1607.54	22.66%	77.16%	-11.55	2-7
2024-11-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-12	1404.12	1605.46	26.05%	73.76%	-13.29	2-8
2024-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-52	1390.83	1738.86	10.67%	89.23%	-16.50	2-9
2024-12-01	Houston Texans	L 20-23	1374.33	1511.42	33.76%	66.02%	-13.34	2-10
2024-12-08	@ Tennessee Titans	W 10-6	1360.99	1358.60	47.24%	52.52%	+23.95	3-10
2024-12-15	New York Jets	L 25-32	1384.94	1360.91	56.29%	43.47%	-33.95	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 14-19	1350.99	1240.42	62.52%	37.25%	-31.87	3-12
2024-12-29	Tennessee Titans	W 20-13	1319.12	1291.33	56.82%	42.94%	+25.92	4-12
2025-01-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-26	1345.04	1383.97	41.38%	58.39%	-16.35	4-13
2024-09-05	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-20	1562.85	1573.24	51.37%	48.38%	+29.20	1-0
2024-09-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-25	1592.05	1483.64	67.66%	32.13%	+7.33	2-0
2024-09-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 22-17	1599.38	1451.23	67.43%	32.35%	+16.51	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 17-10	1615.89	1520.82	60.41%	39.36%	+23.75	4-0
2024-10-07	New Orleans Saints	W 26-13	1639.64	1577.82	61.54%	38.22%	+31.44	5-0
2024-10-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-18	1671.08	1593.65	57.96%	41.80%	+30.16	6-0
2024-10-27	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 27-20	1701.24	1354.08	86.65%	13.22%	+7.98	7-0
2024-11-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-24	1709.22	1515.38	77.36%	22.46%	+12.55	8-0
2024-11-10	Denver Broncos	W 16-14	1721.77	1527.52	77.40%	22.42%	+7.23	9-0
2024-11-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-30	1729.00	1679.59	53.99%	45.77%	-36.93	9-1
2024-11-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-27	1692.07	1306.05	89.03%	10.86%	+4.29	10-1
2024-11-29	Las Vegas Raiders	W 19-17	1696.36	1276.20	92.61%	7.31%	+2.36	11-1
2024-12-08	Los Angeles Chargers	W 19-17	1698.72	1601.32	66.26%	33.52%	+10.81	12-1
2024-12-15	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-7	1709.53	1342.48	87.92%	11.97%	+10.21	13-1
2024-12-21	Houston Texans	W 27-19	1719.74	1550.96	74.74%	25.07%	+16.18	14-1
2024-12-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-10	1735.92	1577.46	68.72%	31.07%	+30.90	15-1
2025-01-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-38	1766.82	1560.03	74.36%	25.45%	-34.82	15-2
2024-09-08	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-22	1496.05	1476.95	49.64%	50.12%	-39.22	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 26-23	1456.83	1544.04	34.84%	64.94%	+25.64	1-1
2024-09-22	Carolina Panthers	L 22-36	1482.47	1349.44	70.67%	29.12%	-60.26	1-2
2024-09-29	Cleveland Browns	W 20-16	1422.21	1450.64	48.78%	50.98%	+23.25	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	L 18-34	1445.46	1511.88	37.60%	62.17%	-34.32	2-3
2024-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-32	1411.14	1542.20	34.54%	65.24%	-34.35	2-4
2024-10-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 15-20	1376.79	1393.34	44.53%	55.23%	-22.71	2-5
2024-10-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1354.08	1701.24	13.22%	86.65%	-7.98	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-41	1346.10	1476.35	29.45%	70.34%	-27.71	2-7
2024-11-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 19-34	1318.39	1418.09	33.23%	66.55%	-29.36	2-8
2024-11-24	Denver Broncos	L 19-29	1289.03	1575.18	17.79%	82.06%	-12.83	2-9
2024-11-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-19	1276.20	1696.36	7.31%	92.61%	-2.36	2-10
2024-12-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-28	1273.84	1530.34	16.81%	83.04%	-14.85	2-11
2024-12-16	Atlanta Falcons	L 9-15	1258.99	1400.19	33.23%	66.55%	-18.57	2-12
2024-12-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 19-14	1240.42	1350.99	37.25%	62.52%	+31.87	3-12
2024-12-29	@ New Orleans Saints	W 25-10	1272.29	1401.68	29.55%	70.24%	+61.99	4-12
2025-01-05	Los Angeles Chargers	L 20-34	1334.28	1587.12	20.76%	79.07%	-17.72	4-13
2024-09-08	Las Vegas Raiders	W 22-10	1476.95	1496.05	50.12%	49.64%	+39.22	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Carolina Panthers	W 26-3	1516.17	1387.59	64.91%	34.86%	+38.14	2-0
2024-09-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-20	1554.31	1557.51	46.43%	53.32%	-33.49	2-1
2024-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1520.82	1615.89	39.36%	60.41%	-23.75	2-2
2024-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-16	1497.07	1546.20	39.96%	59.80%	+36.07	3-2
2024-10-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-17	1533.14	1393.33	66.37%	33.41%	-21.40	3-3
2024-10-27	New Orleans Saints	W 26-8	1511.74	1428.99	64.35%	35.42%	+34.29	4-3
2024-11-03	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-10	1546.03	1399.68	67.20%	32.58%	+30.65	5-3
2024-11-10	Tennessee Titans	W 27-17	1576.68	1384.71	77.17%	22.65%	+16.34	6-3
2024-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-27	1593.02	1498.65	65.87%	33.91%	+20.47	7-3
2024-11-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 23-30	1613.49	1673.40	44.27%	55.49%	-26.72	7-4
2024-12-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1586.77	1434.76	67.92%	31.87%	+14.55	8-4
2024-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-19	1601.32	1698.72	33.52%	66.26%	-10.82	8-5
2024-12-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-40	1590.50	1545.19	59.27%	40.49%	-64.80	8-6
2024-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 34-27	1525.70	1627.74	38.40%	61.37%	+37.00	9-6
2024-12-28	@ New England Patriots	W 40-7	1562.70	1286.44	81.21%	18.64%	+24.42	10-6
2025-01-05	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 34-20	1587.12	1334.28	79.07%	20.76%	+17.72	11-6
2024-09-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-26	1498.91	1528.63	42.67%	57.09%	-23.84	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-41	1475.07	1435.38	52.60%	47.16%	-66.78	0-2
2024-09-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1408.29	1575.97	29.95%	69.84%	+27.57	1-2
2024-09-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 18-24	1435.86	1452.94	44.45%	55.30%	-24.84	1-3
2024-10-06	Green Bay Packers	L 19-24	1411.02	1541.27	34.64%	65.13%	-17.68	1-4
2024-10-20	Las Vegas Raiders	W 20-15	1393.34	1376.79	55.23%	44.53%	+22.72	2-4
2024-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-20	1416.06	1638.50	23.78%	76.03%	+54.78	3-4
2024-11-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 26-20	1470.84	1479.13	45.71%	54.05%	+30.19	4-4
2024-11-11	Miami Dolphins	L 15-23	1501.03	1372.91	70.08%	29.71%	-45.18	4-5
2024-11-17	@ New England Patriots	W 28-22	1455.85	1376.97	58.16%	41.60%	+23.25	5-5
2024-11-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-37	1479.10	1677.40	26.39%	73.42%	-24.83	5-6
2024-12-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-14	1454.27	1449.52	47.58%	52.18%	+31.49	6-6
2024-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 44-42	1485.76	1741.61	20.48%	79.35%	+25.56	7-6
2024-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 12-6	1511.32	1529.43	44.31%	55.45%	+30.97	8-6
2024-12-22	@ New York Jets	W 19-9	1542.29	1394.86	67.34%	32.44%	+23.41	9-6
2024-12-28	Arizona Cardinals	W 13-9	1565.70	1435.24	70.37%	29.43%	+13.43	10-6
2025-01-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 25-30	1579.13	1531.63	59.58%	40.19%	-30.37	10-7
2024-09-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-17	1517.25	1499.25	55.43%	44.32%	+17.51	1-0
2024-09-12	Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1534.76	1583.04	45.93%	53.83%	-48.01	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-24	1486.75	1539.84	39.42%	60.35%	-41.21	1-2
2024-09-30	Tennessee Titans	L 12-31	1445.54	1373.44	62.93%	36.84%	-62.53	1-3
2024-10-06	@ New England Patriots	W 15-10	1383.01	1394.30	45.28%	54.48%	+27.78	2-3
2024-10-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-16	1410.79	1483.31	36.78%	62.99%	-20.56	2-4
2024-10-27	Arizona Cardinals	L 27-28	1390.23	1414.73	49.34%	50.41%	-11.25	2-5
2024-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 27-30	1378.98	1654.16	15.36%	84.50%	-6.07	2-6
2024-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-15	1372.91	1501.03	29.71%	70.08%	+45.18	3-6
2024-11-17	Las Vegas Raiders	W 34-19	1418.09	1318.39	66.55%	33.23%	+29.36	4-6
2024-11-24	New England Patriots	W 34-15	1447.45	1353.72	65.78%	33.99%	+33.81	5-6
2024-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-30	1481.26	1644.48	25.67%	74.13%	-21.12	5-7
2024-12-08	New York Jets	W 32-26	1460.14	1380.97	63.88%	35.90%	+20.06	6-7
2024-12-15	@ Houston Texans	L 12-20	1480.20	1524.76	40.59%	59.17%	-26.19	6-8
2024-12-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 29-17	1454.01	1498.46	46.48%	53.28%	+42.08	7-8
2024-12-29	@ Cleveland Browns	W 20-3	1496.09	1309.06	72.13%	27.67%	+26.03	8-8
2025-01-05	@ New York Jets	L 20-32	1522.12	1361.06	69.04%	30.75%	-54.50	8-9
2024-09-08	@ New York Giants	W 28-6	1491.23	1470.68	49.85%	49.91%	+53.39	1-0
2024-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-17	1544.62	1607.16	43.90%	55.86%	+31.20	2-0
2024-09-22	Houston Texans	W 34-7	1575.82	1535.89	58.52%	41.24%	+48.88	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-29	1624.70	1555.11	56.86%	42.90%	+13.84	4-0
2024-10-06	New York Jets	W 23-17	1638.54	1511.02	70.01%	29.78%	+16.65	5-0
2024-10-20	Detroit Lions	L 29-31	1655.19	1662.95	51.75%	48.01%	-16.69	5-1
2024-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-30	1638.50	1416.06	76.03%	23.78%	-54.79	5-2
2024-11-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 21-13	1583.71	1487.65	66.09%	33.69%	+21.75	6-2
2024-11-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 12-7	1605.46	1404.12	73.76%	26.05%	+13.29	7-2
2024-11-17	@ Tennessee Titans	W 23-13	1618.75	1368.37	78.83%	21.00%	+15.14	8-2
2024-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 30-27	1633.89	1395.66	77.65%	22.18%	+8.77	9-2
2024-12-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-22	1642.66	1497.71	72.07%	27.73%	+6.32	10-2
2024-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 42-21	1648.98	1420.21	80.68%	19.16%	+20.03	11-2
2024-12-16	Chicago Bears	W 30-12	1669.01	1346.93	87.71%	12.18%	+11.78	12-2
2024-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1680.79	1533.88	67.27%	32.51%	+12.84	13-2
2024-12-29	Green Bay Packers	W 27-25	1693.63	1712.95	50.09%	49.67%	+16.02	14-2
2025-01-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-31	1709.65	1770.40	38.37%	61.40%	-41.06	14-3
2024-09-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-10	1455.52	1518.05	38.13%	61.64%	+34.42	1-0
2024-09-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-23	1489.94	1520.70	48.44%	51.32%	-19.14	1-1
2024-09-19	@ New York Jets	L 3-24	1470.80	1475.58	46.21%	53.55%	-48.30	1-2
2024-09-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-30	1422.50	1548.40	29.98%	69.81%	-28.20	1-3
2024-10-06	Miami Dolphins	L 10-15	1394.30	1383.01	54.48%	45.28%	-27.77	1-4
2024-10-13	Houston Texans	L 21-41	1366.53	1527.52	30.76%	69.03%	-31.39	1-5
2024-10-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-32	1335.14	1391.58	38.96%	60.81%	-35.55	1-6
2024-10-27	New York Jets	W 25-22	1299.59	1441.96	33.08%	66.70%	+26.33	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1325.92	1368.56	40.86%	58.90%	-16.15	2-7
2024-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-3	1309.77	1469.28	26.08%	73.72%	+67.20	3-7
2024-11-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 22-28	1376.97	1455.85	41.60%	58.16%	-23.25	3-8
2024-11-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 15-34	1353.72	1447.45	33.99%	65.78%	-33.81	3-9
2024-12-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-25	1319.91	1441.14	35.83%	63.94%	-8.17	3-10
2024-12-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-30	1311.74	1454.70	27.96%	71.84%	-23.00	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-24	1288.74	1751.16	5.83%	94.11%	-2.30	3-12
2024-12-28	Los Angeles Chargers	L 7-40	1286.44	1562.70	18.64%	81.21%	-24.42	3-13
2025-01-05	Buffalo Bills	W 23-16	1262.02	1763.85	5.89%	94.04%	+18.88	4-13
2024-09-08	Carolina Panthers	W 47-10	1511.14	1438.64	62.99%	36.78%	+51.05	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 44-19	1562.19	1588.71	43.12%	56.64%	+64.57	2-0
2024-09-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 12-15	1626.76	1522.28	67.16%	32.62%	-26.52	2-1
2024-09-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-26	1600.24	1434.73	69.58%	30.21%	-22.42	2-2
2024-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-26	1577.82	1639.64	38.22%	61.54%	-31.44	2-3
2024-10-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-51	1546.38	1515.71	57.23%	42.53%	-63.92	2-4
2024-10-17	Denver Broncos	L 10-33	1482.46	1510.13	48.89%	50.87%	-53.47	2-5
2024-10-27	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 8-26	1428.99	1511.74	35.42%	64.35%	-34.29	2-6
2024-11-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 22-23	1394.70	1268.91	64.55%	35.23%	-14.71	2-7
2024-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1379.99	1515.64	33.94%	65.83%	+25.99	3-7
2024-11-17	Cleveland Browns	W 35-14	1405.98	1369.03	58.11%	41.65%	+43.54	4-7
2024-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-21	1449.52	1454.27	52.18%	47.58%	-31.48	4-8
2024-12-08	@ New York Giants	W 14-11	1418.04	1277.25	66.49%	33.29%	+13.15	5-8
2024-12-15	Washington Commanders	L 19-20	1431.19	1542.24	37.19%	62.58%	-8.48	5-9
2024-12-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-34	1422.71	1691.92	15.81%	84.05%	-21.03	5-10
2024-12-29	Las Vegas Raiders	L 10-25	1401.68	1272.29	70.24%	29.55%	-61.99	5-11
2025-01-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-27	1339.69	1606.23	16.02%	83.84%	-10.33	5-12
2024-09-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-28	1470.68	1491.23	49.91%	49.85%	-53.38	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Washington Commanders	L 18-21	1417.30	1409.90	47.95%	51.80%	-18.95	0-2
2024-09-22	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-15	1398.35	1486.99	34.65%	65.12%	+36.36	1-2
2024-09-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 15-20	1434.71	1502.94	43.10%	56.66%	-21.98	1-3
2024-10-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 29-20	1412.73	1539.71	29.84%	69.95%	+47.82	2-3
2024-10-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1460.55	1466.74	51.97%	47.78%	-37.48	2-4
2024-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-28	1423.07	1512.72	40.10%	59.66%	-45.74	2-5
2024-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-26	1377.33	1612.22	18.62%	81.22%	-12.02	2-6
2024-11-03	Washington Commanders	L 22-27	1365.31	1580.23	24.58%	75.24%	-12.53	2-7
2024-11-10	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1352.78	1283.62	56.80%	42.96%	-22.43	2-8
2024-11-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-30	1330.35	1486.49	31.36%	68.43%	-34.31	2-9
2024-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1296.04	1412.58	31.12%	68.67%	-18.79	2-10
2024-12-08	New Orleans Saints	L 11-14	1277.25	1418.04	33.29%	66.49%	-13.15	2-11
2024-12-15	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-35	1264.10	1673.32	9.64%	90.27%	-10.07	2-12
2024-12-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-34	1254.03	1418.76	25.51%	74.30%	-30.24	2-13
2024-12-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-33	1223.79	1443.78	24.04%	75.78%	+59.81	3-13
2025-01-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-20	1283.60	1753.03	5.61%	94.33%	-1.13	3-14
2024-09-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-32	1470.41	1580.95	31.86%	67.92%	-26.21	0-1
2024-09-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1444.20	1438.32	47.74%	52.02%	+31.38	1-1
2024-09-19	New England Patriots	W 24-3	1475.58	1470.80	53.55%	46.21%	+48.30	2-1
2024-09-29	Denver Broncos	L 9-10	1523.88	1499.02	56.41%	43.35%	-12.86	2-2
2024-10-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-23	1511.02	1638.54	29.78%	70.01%	-16.64	2-3
2024-10-14	Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1494.38	1567.65	42.39%	57.38%	-16.75	2-4
2024-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-37	1477.63	1576.56	33.33%	66.45%	-35.67	2-5
2024-10-27	@ New England Patriots	L 22-25	1441.96	1299.59	66.70%	33.08%	-26.32	2-6
2024-10-31	Houston Texans	W 21-13	1415.64	1561.38	32.66%	67.13%	+43.27	3-6
2024-11-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-31	1458.91	1489.15	42.59%	57.17%	-48.59	3-7
2024-11-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-28	1410.32	1446.54	47.66%	52.10%	-10.87	3-8
2024-12-01	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-26	1399.45	1517.68	36.23%	63.55%	-18.48	3-9
2024-12-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 26-32	1380.97	1460.14	35.90%	63.88%	-20.06	3-10
2024-12-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 32-25	1360.91	1384.94	43.47%	56.29%	+33.95	4-10
2024-12-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 9-19	1394.86	1542.29	32.44%	67.34%	-23.40	4-11
2024-12-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-40	1371.46	1753.45	8.95%	90.97%	-10.40	4-12
2025-01-05	Miami Dolphins	W 32-20	1361.06	1522.12	30.75%	69.04%	+54.50	5-12
2024-09-06	Green Bay Packers	W 34-29	1512.81	1523.37	51.35%	48.41%	+24.69	1-0
2024-09-16	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-22	1537.50	1436.01	66.78%	33.00%	-15.22	1-1
2024-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	W 15-12	1522.28	1626.76	32.62%	67.16%	+26.51	2-1
2024-09-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-33	1548.79	1498.31	54.14%	45.61%	-50.90	2-2
2024-10-13	Cleveland Browns	W 20-16	1497.89	1392.40	67.29%	32.49%	+14.83	3-2
2024-10-20	@ New York Giants	W 28-3	1512.72	1423.07	59.66%	40.10%	+45.74	4-2
2024-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-17	1558.46	1525.42	51.64%	48.11%	+49.08	5-2
2024-11-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-23	1607.54	1415.67	77.16%	22.66%	+11.56	6-2
2024-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-6	1619.10	1439.95	71.21%	28.58%	+34.50	7-2
2024-11-14	Washington Commanders	W 26-18	1653.60	1581.75	62.90%	36.87%	+23.80	8-2
2024-11-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-20	1677.40	1479.10	73.42%	26.39%	+24.82	9-2
2024-12-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 24-19	1702.22	1700.12	47.20%	52.56%	+26.80	10-2
2024-12-08	Carolina Panthers	W 22-16	1729.02	1292.22	93.24%	6.69%	+3.73	11-2
2024-12-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-13	1732.75	1641.54	65.46%	34.32%	+29.30	12-2
2024-12-22	@ Washington Commanders	L 33-36	1762.05	1550.72	74.85%	24.96%	-29.54	12-3
2024-12-29	Dallas Cowboys	W 41-7	1732.51	1458.28	84.43%	15.43%	+20.52	13-3
2025-01-05	New York Giants	W 20-13	1753.03	1283.60	94.33%	5.61%	+1.13	14-3
2024-09-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 18-10	1501.58	1466.90	51.88%	47.88%	+30.89	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 13-6	1532.47	1452.85	58.27%	41.50%	+25.04	2-0
2024-09-22	Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-10	1557.51	1554.31	53.32%	46.43%	+33.50	3-0
2024-09-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-27	1591.01	1461.65	65.02%	34.76%	-25.67	3-1
2024-10-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1565.34	1524.92	58.59%	41.17%	-23.14	3-2
2024-10-13	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 32-13	1542.20	1411.14	65.24%	34.54%	+34.36	4-2
2024-10-20	New York Jets	W 37-15	1576.56	1477.63	66.45%	33.33%	+35.66	5-2
2024-10-28	New York Giants	W 26-18	1612.22	1377.33	81.22%	18.62%	+12.01	6-2
2024-11-10	@ Washington Commanders	W 28-27	1624.23	1592.77	51.42%	48.34%	+11.03	7-2
2024-11-17	Baltimore Ravens	W 18-16	1635.26	1691.10	44.85%	54.91%	+17.70	8-2
2024-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns	L 19-24	1652.96	1325.48	85.29%	14.58%	-43.43	8-3
2024-12-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-38	1609.53	1478.18	65.28%	34.50%	+19.28	9-3
2024-12-08	Cleveland Browns	W 27-14	1628.81	1355.21	84.38%	15.48%	+12.73	10-3
2024-12-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-27	1641.54	1732.75	34.32%	65.46%	-29.30	10-4
2024-12-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-34	1612.24	1683.38	36.97%	62.80%	-34.78	10-5
2024-12-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-29	1577.46	1735.92	31.07%	68.72%	-30.90	10-6
2025-01-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-19	1546.56	1565.16	50.19%	49.56%	-16.18	10-7
2024-09-09	New York Jets	W 32-19	1580.95	1470.41	67.92%	31.86%	+26.21	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-23	1607.16	1544.62	55.86%	43.90%	-31.19	1-1
2024-09-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1575.97	1408.29	69.84%	29.95%	-27.57	1-2
2024-09-29	New England Patriots	W 30-13	1548.40	1422.50	69.81%	29.98%	+28.20	2-2
2024-10-06	Arizona Cardinals	L 23-24	1576.60	1406.42	74.89%	24.92%	-17.07	2-3
2024-10-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 36-24	1559.53	1491.89	56.58%	43.18%	+34.12	3-3
2024-10-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 18-28	1593.65	1671.08	41.80%	57.96%	-30.15	3-4
2024-10-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-24	1563.50	1483.99	63.92%	35.85%	+20.03	4-4
2024-11-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1583.53	1502.83	58.42%	41.34%	+16.34	5-4
2024-11-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1599.87	1448.94	72.76%	27.05%	-28.72	5-5
2024-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-38	1571.15	1591.35	44.01%	55.75%	-53.12	5-6
2024-12-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-35	1518.03	1716.52	22.00%	77.83%	-25.10	5-7
2024-12-08	Chicago Bears	W 38-13	1492.93	1383.42	67.80%	31.99%	+36.50	6-7
2024-12-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-12	1529.43	1511.32	55.45%	44.31%	-30.97	6-8
2024-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-29	1498.46	1454.01	53.28%	46.48%	-42.09	6-9
2024-12-30	Detroit Lions	L 34-40	1456.37	1761.31	16.26%	83.59%	-9.08	6-10
2025-01-05	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-47	1447.29	1421.81	50.56%	49.20%	-55.29	6-11
2024-09-08	Denver Broncos	W 26-20	1495.97	1477.59	55.49%	44.27%	+24.73	1-0
2024-09-15	@ New England Patriots	W 23-20	1520.70	1489.94	51.32%	48.44%	+19.14	2-0
2024-09-22	Miami Dolphins	W 24-3	1539.84	1486.75	60.35%	39.42%	+41.21	3-0
2024-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 29-42	1581.05	1557.54	50.27%	49.48%	-41.34	3-1
2024-10-06	New York Giants	L 20-29	1539.71	1412.73	69.95%	29.84%	-47.82	3-2
2024-10-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-36	1491.89	1559.53	43.18%	56.58%	-34.12	3-3
2024-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-14	1457.77	1521.31	37.99%	61.78%	+62.98	4-3
2024-10-27	Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1520.75	1612.54	39.81%	59.96%	-41.62	4-4
2024-11-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1479.13	1470.84	54.05%	45.71%	-30.19	4-5
2024-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1448.94	1599.87	27.05%	72.76%	+28.72	5-5
2024-11-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 16-6	1477.66	1537.73	44.25%	55.51%	+40.02	6-5
2024-12-01	@ New York Jets	W 26-21	1517.68	1399.45	63.55%	36.23%	+18.49	7-5
2024-12-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 30-18	1536.17	1491.38	53.33%	46.43%	+36.68	8-5
2024-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 13-30	1572.85	1652.95	41.43%	58.33%	-38.97	8-6
2024-12-22	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1533.88	1680.79	32.51%	67.27%	-12.84	8-7
2024-12-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 6-3	1521.04	1326.48	72.99%	26.81%	+10.59	9-7
2025-01-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-25	1531.63	1579.13	40.19%	59.58%	+30.37	10-7
2024-09-08	Washington Commanders	W 37-20	1509.19	1445.64	61.78%	37.99%	+35.73	1-0
2024-09-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-16	1544.92	1552.47	45.81%	53.94%	+24.60	2-0
2024-09-22	Denver Broncos	L 7-26	1569.52	1427.81	71.70%	28.10%	-71.21	2-1
2024-09-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-16	1498.31	1548.79	45.61%	54.14%	+50.90	3-1
2024-10-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 30-36	1549.21	1457.15	60.00%	39.77%	-33.50	3-2
2024-10-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 51-27	1515.71	1546.38	42.53%	57.23%	+63.91	4-2
2024-10-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 31-41	1579.62	1649.30	42.89%	56.87%	-30.94	4-3
2024-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	L 26-31	1548.68	1458.34	65.35%	34.43%	-33.30	4-4
2024-11-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-30	1515.38	1709.22	22.46%	77.36%	-12.55	4-5
2024-11-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1502.83	1583.53	41.34%	58.42%	-16.34	4-6
2024-11-24	@ New York Giants	W 30-7	1486.49	1330.35	68.43%	31.36%	+34.31	5-6
2024-12-01	@ Carolina Panthers	W 26-23	1520.80	1301.76	75.68%	24.14%	+9.54	6-6
2024-12-08	Las Vegas Raiders	W 28-13	1530.34	1273.84	83.04%	16.81%	+14.85	7-6
2024-12-15	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 40-17	1545.19	1590.50	40.49%	59.27%	+64.81	8-6
2024-12-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-26	1610.00	1435.51	70.66%	29.13%	-22.78	8-7
2024-12-29	Carolina Panthers	W 48-14	1587.22	1297.30	85.58%	14.29%	+19.01	9-7
2025-01-05	New Orleans Saints	W 27-19	1606.23	1339.69	83.84%	16.02%	+10.33	10-7
2024-09-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-24	1465.46	1478.96	44.96%	54.79%	-27.14	0-1
2024-09-15	New York Jets	L 17-24	1438.32	1444.20	52.02%	47.74%	-31.38	0-2
2024-09-22	Green Bay Packers	L 14-30	1406.94	1521.62	36.70%	63.07%	-33.50	0-3
2024-09-30	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-12	1373.44	1445.54	36.84%	62.93%	+62.53	1-3
2024-10-13	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1435.97	1464.03	48.83%	50.93%	-19.29	1-4
2024-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-34	1416.68	1584.39	25.18%	74.63%	-28.15	1-5
2024-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-52	1388.53	1679.64	14.21%	85.66%	-19.97	1-6
2024-11-03	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1368.56	1325.92	58.90%	40.86%	+16.15	2-6
2024-11-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-27	1384.71	1576.68	22.65%	77.17%	-16.34	2-7
2024-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-23	1368.37	1618.75	21.00%	78.83%	-15.15	2-8
2024-11-24	@ Houston Texans	W 32-27	1353.22	1551.03	22.07%	77.76%	+39.62	3-8
2024-12-01	@ Washington Commanders	L 19-42	1392.84	1508.00	31.29%	68.50%	-34.24	3-9
2024-12-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-10	1358.60	1360.99	52.52%	47.24%	-23.95	3-10
2024-12-15	Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-37	1334.65	1488.40	31.65%	68.13%	-22.84	3-11
2024-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 30-38	1311.81	1423.30	31.74%	68.04%	-20.48	3-12
2024-12-29	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-20	1291.33	1319.12	42.94%	56.82%	-25.92	3-13
2025-01-05	Houston Texans	L 14-23	1265.41	1500.27	22.51%	77.31%	-5.14	3-14
2024-09-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-37	1445.64	1509.19	37.99%	61.78%	-35.74	0-1
2024-09-15	New York Giants	W 21-18	1409.90	1417.30	51.80%	47.95%	+18.94	1-1
2024-09-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-33	1428.84	1476.31	40.19%	59.57%	+30.37	2-1
2024-09-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 42-14	1459.21	1472.49	45.00%	54.76%	+66.07	3-1
2024-10-06	Cleveland Browns	W 34-13	1525.28	1427.38	66.32%	33.46%	+34.99	4-1
2024-10-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 23-30	1560.27	1626.60	37.61%	62.16%	-22.71	4-2
2024-10-20	Carolina Panthers	W 40-7	1537.56	1306.42	80.89%	18.95%	+24.83	5-2
2024-10-27	Chicago Bears	W 18-15	1562.39	1550.30	54.59%	45.17%	+17.84	6-2
2024-11-03	@ New York Giants	W 27-22	1580.23	1365.31	75.24%	24.58%	+12.54	7-2
2024-11-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-28	1592.77	1624.23	48.34%	51.42%	-11.02	7-3
2024-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 18-26	1581.75	1653.60	36.87%	62.90%	-23.80	7-4
2024-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 26-34	1557.95	1362.63	77.51%	22.31%	-49.95	7-5
2024-12-01	Tennessee Titans	W 42-19	1508.00	1392.84	68.50%	31.29%	+34.24	8-5
2024-12-15	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-19	1542.24	1431.19	62.58%	37.19%	+8.48	9-5
2024-12-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 36-33	1550.72	1762.05	24.96%	74.85%	+29.54	10-5
2024-12-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1580.26	1449.00	70.46%	29.33%	+16.40	11-5
2025-01-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-19	1596.66	1437.76	68.77%	31.02%	+14.15	12-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2025-01-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-14	1759.05	1530.38	80.78%	19.22%	+16.36	1-0
2025-01-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 25-27	1775.41	1775.30	47.03%	52.97%	-15.13	1-1
2025-01-12	Denver Broncos	W 31-7	1744.97	1594.84	72.79%	27.21%	+30.33	1-0
2025-01-19	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-25	1775.30	1775.41	52.97%	47.03%	+15.13	2-0
2025-01-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 29-32	1790.43	1749.49	52.90%	47.10%	-20.84	2-1
2025-01-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-31	1594.84	1744.97	27.21%	72.79%	-30.33	0-1
2025-01-18	Washington Commanders	L 31-45	1811.46	1632.01	76.00%	24.00%	-64.69	0-1
2025-01-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-22	1667.66	1754.16	35.03%	64.97%	-27.61	0-1
2025-01-11	Los Angeles Chargers	W 32-12	1505.40	1604.84	38.87%	61.13%	+62.20	1-0
2025-01-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-23	1567.60	1732.00	25.62%	74.38%	-17.48	1-1
2025-01-18	Houston Texans	W 23-14	1732.00	1567.60	74.38%	25.62%	+17.49	1-0
2025-01-26	Buffalo Bills	W 32-29	1749.49	1790.43	47.10%	52.90%	+20.84	2-0
2025-02-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-40	1770.33	1838.64	37.45%	62.55%	-36.15	2-1
2025-01-11	@ Houston Texans	L 12-32	1604.84	1505.40	61.13%	38.87%	-62.19	0-1
2025-01-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-9	1548.76	1668.59	36.12%	63.88%	+61.66	1-0
2025-01-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-28	1610.42	1781.77	24.86%	75.14%	-13.86	1-1
2025-01-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-27	1668.59	1548.76	63.88%	36.12%	-61.66	0-1
2025-01-12	Green Bay Packers	W 22-10	1754.16	1667.66	64.97%	35.03%	+27.61	1-0
2025-01-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-22	1781.77	1610.42	75.14%	24.86%	+13.86	2-0
2025-01-26	Washington Commanders	W 55-23	1795.63	1696.70	66.57%	33.43%	+43.01	3-0
2025-02-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 40-22	1838.64	1770.33	62.55%	37.45%	+36.15	4-0
2025-01-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-28	1530.38	1759.05	19.22%	80.78%	-16.36	0-1
2025-01-12	Washington Commanders	L 20-23	1616.56	1610.81	53.81%	46.19%	-21.20	0-1
2025-01-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1610.81	1616.56	46.19%	53.81%	+21.20	1-0
2025-01-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 45-31	1632.01	1811.46	24.00%	76.00%	+64.69	2-0
2025-01-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-55	1696.70	1795.63	33.43%	66.57%	-43.01	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2025-01-05	5.89%	@ New England Patriots	1262.02	23	Buffalo Bills	1763.85	16
2	2025-01-05	8.99%	Chicago Bears	1315.88	24	@ Green Bay Packers	1696.93	22
3	2024-11-21	14.58%	@ Cleveland Browns	1325.48	24	Pittsburgh Steelers	1652.96	19
4	2024-10-27	14.84%	@ Cleveland Browns	1356.37	29	Baltimore Ravens	1680.24	24
5	2024-12-08	20.48%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1485.76	44	Buffalo Bills	1741.61	42
6	2024-11-24	22.07%	Tennessee Titans	1353.22	32	@ Houston Texans	1551.03	27
7	2024-11-24	22.31%	Dallas Cowboys	1362.63	34	@ Washington Commanders	1557.95	26
8	2024-12-22	23.74%	@ Carolina Panthers	1254.84	36	Arizona Cardinals	1477.70	30
9	2024-10-24	23.78%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1416.06	30	Minnesota Vikings	1638.50	20
10	2025-01-18 *	24.00%	Washington Commanders	1632.01	45	@ Detroit Lions	1811.46	31
11	2024-12-29	24.04%	@ New York Giants	1223.79	45	Indianapolis Colts	1443.78	33
12	2024-10-06	24.92%	Arizona Cardinals	1406.42	24	@ San Francisco 49ers	1576.60	23
13	2024-12-22	24.96%	@ Washington Commanders	1550.72	36	Philadelphia Eagles	1762.05	33
14	2025-01-05	25.45%	@ Denver Broncos	1560.03	38	Kansas City Chiefs	1766.82	0
15	2024-11-10	26.08%	New England Patriots	1309.77	19	@ Chicago Bears	1469.28	3
16	2025-01-05	26.66%	Carolina Panthers	1278.29	44	@ Atlanta Falcons	1432.61	38
17	2024-11-17	27.05%	Seattle Seahawks	1448.94	20	@ San Francisco 49ers	1599.87	17
18	2024-09-22	28.10%	Denver Broncos	1427.81	26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1569.52	7
19	2024-09-22	29.12%	Carolina Panthers	1349.44	36	@ Las Vegas Raiders	1482.47	22
20	2024-12-22	29.13%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1435.51	26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1610.00	24
21	2024-12-29	29.55%	Las Vegas Raiders	1272.29	25	@ New Orleans Saints	1401.68	10
22	2024-11-11	29.71%	Miami Dolphins	1372.91	23	@ Los Angeles Rams	1501.03	15
23	2024-10-06	29.84%	New York Giants	1412.73	29	@ Seattle Seahawks	1539.71	20
24	2024-09-22	29.95%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1408.29	27	San Francisco 49ers	1575.97	24
25	2024-09-29	30.21%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1434.73	26	New Orleans Saints	1600.24	24

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2024-09-29	73.42	@ Baltimore Ravens	35	1539.61	35.35%	Buffalo Bills	10	1664.48	64.43%
2	2024-09-22	71.21	Denver Broncos	26	1427.81	28.10%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	1569.52	71.70%
3	2024-11-10	67.20	New England Patriots	19	1309.77	26.08%	@ Chicago Bears	3	1469.28	73.72%
4	2024-09-15	66.78	@ Arizona Cardinals	41	1435.38	47.16%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1475.07	52.60%
5	2024-09-29	66.07	Washington Commanders	42	1459.21	45.00%	@ Arizona Cardinals	14	1472.49	54.76%
6	2024-12-15	64.81	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40	1545.19	40.49%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	17	1590.50	59.27%
7	2025-01-18 *	64.69	Washington Commanders	45	1632.01	24.00%	@ Detroit Lions	31	1811.46	76.00%
8	2024-09-15	64.57	New Orleans Saints	44	1562.19	43.12%	@ Dallas Cowboys	19	1588.71	56.64%
9	2024-10-13	64.07	Detroit Lions	47	1598.88	54.19%	@ Dallas Cowboys	9	1548.06	45.57%
10	2024-10-13	63.92	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	51	1515.71	42.53%	@ New Orleans Saints	27	1546.38	57.23%
11	2024-11-03	63.17	@ Arizona Cardinals	29	1425.98	37.80%	Chicago Bears	9	1532.45	61.97%
12	2024-10-20	62.98	Seattle Seahawks	34	1457.77	37.99%	@ Atlanta Falcons	14	1521.31	61.78%
13	2024-09-30	62.53	Tennessee Titans	31	1373.44	36.84%	@ Miami Dolphins	12	1445.54	62.93%
14	2025-01-11 *	62.20	@ Houston Texans	32	1505.40	38.87%	Los Angeles Chargers	12	1604.84	61.13%
15	2024-12-29	61.99	Las Vegas Raiders	25	1272.29	29.55%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1401.68	70.24%
16	2025-01-13 *	61.66	@ Los Angeles Rams	27	1548.76	36.12%	Minnesota Vikings	9	1668.59	63.88%
17	2024-09-22	60.26	Carolina Panthers	36	1349.44	29.12%	@ Las Vegas Raiders	22	1482.47	70.67%
18	2024-12-29	59.81	@ New York Giants	45	1223.79	24.04%	Indianapolis Colts	33	1443.78	75.78%
19	2025-01-05	55.29	@ Arizona Cardinals	47	1421.81	49.20%	San Francisco 49ers	24	1447.29	50.56%
20	2024-11-17	54.89	@ Denver Broncos	38	1520.29	57.22%	Atlanta Falcons	6	1489.65	42.54%
21	2024-10-24	54.79	@ Los Angeles Rams	30	1416.06	23.78%	Minnesota Vikings	20	1638.50	76.03%
22	2025-01-05	54.50	@ New York Jets	32	1361.06	30.75%	Miami Dolphins	20	1522.12	69.04%
23	2024-10-17	53.47	Denver Broncos	33	1510.13	50.87%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1482.46	48.89%
24	2024-09-08	53.39	Minnesota Vikings	28	1491.23	49.85%	@ New York Giants	6	1470.68	49.91%
25	2024-11-24	53.13	@ Green Bay Packers	38	1591.35	55.75%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1571.15	44.01%