2023 NFL Season

272 regular-season games · 14 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2022

Runner-Up

San Francisco 49ers

8th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2019

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Ravens

2.77 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.23 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Carolina Panthers

4.65 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.65 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	11	6	.647	-	451	311	+140	10.94	+0.06
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	11	6	.647	-	496	391	+105	9.24	+1.76
3	New York Jets	7	10	.412	4	268	355	-87	7.01	-0.01
4	New England Patriots	4	13	.235	7	236	366	-130	6.99	-2.99

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	13	4	.765	-	483	280	+203	10.23	+2.77
2	Cleveland Browns Playoffs	11	6	.647	2	396	362	+34	8.91	+2.09
3	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	10	7	.588	3	304	324	-20	8.55	+1.45
4	Cincinnati Bengals	9	8	.529	4	366	384	-18	9.77	-0.77

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	10	7	.588	-	377	353	+24	7.78	+2.22
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	8	.529	1	377	371	+6	9.52	-0.52
3	Indianapolis Colts	9	8	.529	1	396	415	-19	7.41	+1.59
4	Tennessee Titans	6	11	.353	4	305	367	-62	7.37	-1.37

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	11	6	.647	-	371	294	+77	11.68	-0.68
2	Las Vegas Raiders	8	9	.471	3	332	331	+1	7.61	+0.39
3	Denver Broncos	8	9	.471	3	357	413	-56	6.84	+1.16
4	Los Angeles Chargers	5	12	.294	6	346	398	-52	8.20	-3.20

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	5	.706	-	509	315	+194	10.75	+1.25
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	6	.647	1	433	428	+5	10.99	+0.01
3	New York Giants	6	11	.353	6	266	407	-141	6.49	-0.49
4	Washington Commanders	4	13	.235	8	329	518	-189	7.00	-3.00

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	12	5	.706	-	461	395	+66	9.71	+2.29
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	9	8	.529	3	383	350	+33	9.01	-0.01
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	10	.412	5	344	362	-18	8.52	-1.52
4	Chicago Bears	7	10	.412	5	360	379	-19	6.34	+0.66

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	9	8	.529	-	348	325	+23	8.39	+0.61
2	New Orleans Saints	9	8	.529	-	402	327	+75	9.18	-0.18
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	10	.412	2	321	373	-52	8.21	-1.21
4	Carolina Panthers	2	15	.118	7	236	416	-180	6.65	-4.65

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	12	5	.706	-	491	298	+193	11.76	+0.24
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	7	.588	2	404	377	+27	7.27	+2.73
3	Seattle Seahawks	9	8	.529	3	364	402	-38	8.27	+0.73
4	Arizona Cardinals	4	13	.235	8	330	455	-125	5.42	-1.42

Playoff Bracket

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 45

Cleveland Browns 14

Jan 13

Kansas City Chiefs 26

Miami Dolphins 7

Jan 13

Buffalo Bills 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Jan 15

Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens 34

Houston Texans 10

Jan 20

Kansas City Chiefs 27

Buffalo Bills 24

Jan 21

Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs 17

Baltimore Ravens 10

Jan 28

NFC

Wild Card Round

Green Bay Packers 48

Dallas Cowboys 32

Jan 14

Detroit Lions 24

Los Angeles Rams 23

Jan 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

Philadelphia Eagles 9

Jan 15

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 24

Green Bay Packers 21

Jan 20

Detroit Lions 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Jan 21

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 34

Detroit Lions 31

Jan 28

Super Bowl

Kansas City Chiefs 25

San Francisco 49ers 22

Feb 11

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1695	12	11.76	+0.24	64.95%	3	9	11	12	13	15	17
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1694	13	10.23	+2.77	95.96%	2	7	9	10	12	13	17
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1660	11	10.94	+0.06	61.22%	2	8	10	11	12	14	17
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1643	12	10.75	+1.25	82.24%	3	8	9	11	12	14	17
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1612	11	11.68	-0.68	45.51%	4	9	10	12	13	15	17
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1580	12	9.71	+2.29	92.49%	1	6	8	10	11	13	17
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1568	11	10.99	+0.01	59.93%	2	8	10	11	12	14	17
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1564	11	9.24	+1.76	88.17%	2	6	8	9	11	12	17
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1552	9	9.77	-0.77	44.56%	2	6	8	10	11	13	17
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1536	9	9.01	-0.01	59.79%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1534	11	8.91	+2.09	90.60%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1527	9	9.18	-0.18	56.39%	1	6	8	9	11	12	17
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1517	10	8.55	+1.45	83.88%	1	5	7	9	10	12	17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1510	9	8.39	+0.61	71.55%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1502	10	7.27	+2.73	95.16%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1500	9	9.52	-0.52	49.47%	1	6	8	10	11	13	17
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1492	9	8.27	+0.73	73.70%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1491	8	7.61	+0.39	67.64%	0	4	6	8	9	11	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1477	7	8.52	-1.52	31.05%	1	5	7	8	10	12	17
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1466	10	7.78	+2.22	91.42%	0	5	6	8	9	11	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1448	8	6.84	+1.16	80.62%	0	4	5	7	8	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1443	7	6.34	+0.66	73.56%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1438	9	7.41	+1.59	85.22%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1433	6	6.49	-0.49	51.35%	0	3	5	6	8	10	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1432	7	7.01	-0.01	60.71%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1431	5	8.20	-3.20	8.96%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1416	7	8.21	-1.21	36.96%	0	5	7	8	10	12	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1408	6	7.37	-1.37	33.76%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1383	4	6.99	-2.99	10.28%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1366	4	5.42	-1.42	32.28%	0	2	4	5	7	9	14
Washington Commanders	NFC	NFC East	1357	4	7.00	-3.00	9.61%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1322	2	6.65	-4.65	1.40%	0	3	5	7	8	10	15

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-
New York Jets	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.2 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	-	-
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	-	-
Las Vegas Raiders	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	-
Los Angeles Chargers	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	-

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Commanders
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Commanders	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.7 exp.)
Washington Commanders	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	-	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	-	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	-	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	-	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	-	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	-	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	-	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	-	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	-	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	-	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	-	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	0.74%	0.37%	0.92%	1.65%	1.65%	0.92%	—	6.25%
7–13	0.37%	2.57%	4.23%	2.94%	3.31%	0.55%	0.37%	14.34%
14–20	0.92%	4.23%	7.72%	8.82%	3.86%	1.65%	1.65%	28.86%
21–27	1.65%	2.94%	8.82%	4.78%	3.86%	0.55%	0.55%	23.16%
28–34	1.65%	3.31%	3.86%	3.86%	4.04%	1.29%	0.18%	18.20%
35–41	0.92%	0.55%	1.65%	0.55%	1.29%	1.47%	—	6.43%
42+	—	0.37%	1.65%	0.55%	0.18%	—	—	2.76%
Total	6.25%	14.34%	28.86%	23.16%	18.20%	6.43%	2.76%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.77	21.77	+0.00
SD	10.02	10.02	14.66
CV	0.46	0.46	—
Max	70	70	+50
Min	0	0	-50

Games Played: 272

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	11.76%	—	41.18%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	17.65%	35.29%	23.53%	11.76%	5.88%	100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.41	26.76	-7.35
SD	8.68	8.59	11.52
CV	0.45	0.32	—
Max	35	45	+14
Min	0	10	-27

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%
21–27	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	41.18%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	29.41%	17.65%	23.53%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	18.88	21.94	-3.06
SD	7.32	10.84	12.38
CV	0.39	0.49	—
Max	29	48	+19
Min	6	8	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
21–27	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
35–41	11.76%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	17.65%	17.65%	35.29%	17.65%	11.76%	—	—	100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.41	16.47	+11.94
SD	11.09	9.06	13.75
CV	0.39	0.55	—
Max	56	33	+37
Min	10	3	-7

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	35.29%
28–34	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	11.76%	17.65%	23.53%	35.29%	5.88%	5.88%	—	100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	26.53	18.29	+8.24
SD	9.01	8.81	13.63
CV	0.34	0.48	—
Max	48	37	+34
Min	14	3	-6

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
7–13	—	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	17.65%
28–34	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	17.65%	17.65%	29.41%	17.65%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.88	24.47	-10.59
SD	8.41	10.57	8.94
CV	0.61	0.43	—
Max	30	42	+2
Min	0	7	-26

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	35.29%	11.76%	17.65%	11.76%	—	100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.18	22.29	-1.12
SD	9.37	9.29	14.42
CV	0.44	0.42	—
Max	40	41	+20
Min	9	10	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	11.76%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	23.53%	—	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	41.18%	29.41%	23.53%	—	—	100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.53	22.59	-1.06
SD	10.30	7.16	13.70
CV	0.48	0.32	—
Max	34	34	+20
Min	3	13	-24

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
21–27	17.65%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	17.65%	5.88%	17.65%	23.53%	23.53%	11.76%	—	100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.29	21.29	+2.00
SD	9.90	11.56	15.27
CV	0.43	0.54	—
Max	39	38	+27
Min	3	0	-25

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	11.76%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
28–34	—	17.65%	—	—	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
42+	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
Total	11.76%	29.41%	23.53%	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.94	18.53	+11.41
SD	12.42	11.41	21.19
CV	0.41	0.62	—
Max	49	42	+40
Min	10	0	-32

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	11.76%	41.18%
21–27	—	11.76%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	35.29%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	23.53%	23.53%	11.76%	5.88%	11.76%	100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.00	24.29	-3.29
SD	6.34	15.14	16.28
CV	0.30	0.62	—
Max	33	70	+17
Min	8	7	-50

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
14–20	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	35.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
Total	11.76%	—	35.29%	17.65%	17.65%	17.65%	—	100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	27.12	23.24	+3.88
SD	10.13	9.60	13.59
CV	0.37	0.41	—
Max	42	38	+25
Min	6	6	-32

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	35.29%	29.41%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.53	20.59	+1.94
SD	7.43	8.24	10.91
CV	0.33	0.40	—
Max	38	34	+23
Min	10	3	-14

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
21–27	5.88%	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	35.29%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	5.88%	35.29%	23.53%	11.76%	11.76%	—	100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.18	20.76	+1.41
SD	8.63	9.54	13.17
CV	0.39	0.46	—
Max	39	37	+24
Min	6	3	-24

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
21–27	—	5.88%	23.53%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	47.06%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	29.41%	5.88%	29.41%	17.65%	—	100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.29	24.41	-1.12
SD	7.49	9.70	11.32
CV	0.32	0.40	—
Max	38	39	+17
Min	10	6	-20

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	11.76%	23.53%	23.53%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	22.18	21.82	+0.35
SD	9.86	10.16	15.80
CV	0.44	0.47	—
Max	37	37	+26
Min	3	0	-31

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	11.76%	11.76%	17.65%	—	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	29.41%	—	—	—	—	29.41%
28–34	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	52.94%	23.53%	—	—	—	100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.82	17.29	+4.53
SD	7.88	5.27	10.64
CV	0.36	0.30	—
Max	41	27	+31
Min	9	8	-15

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
14–20	—	11.76%	11.76%	23.53%	5.88%	—	—	52.94%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	11.76%	11.76%	29.41%	29.41%	11.76%	5.88%	—	100%

Las Vegas Raiders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.53	19.47	+0.06
SD	12.99	9.04	16.17
CV	0.67	0.46	—
Max	63	38	+42
Min	0	3	-28

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
14–20	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
21–27	5.88%	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	29.41%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	11.76%	23.53%	29.41%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	100%

Los Angeles Chargers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.35	23.41	-3.06
SD	9.47	14.35	13.95
CV	0.47	0.61	—
Max	38	63	+21
Min	6	0	-42

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	5.88%	29.41%
21–27	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	29.41%
35–41	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.76%	41.18%	29.41%	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.76	22.18	+1.59
SD	8.70	8.38	12.65
CV	0.37	0.38	—
Max	37	43	+23
Min	3	9	-23

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	11.76%	35.29%
21–27	—	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
28–34	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
Total	5.88%	11.76%	35.29%	17.65%	17.65%	—	11.76%	100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	29.18	23.00	+6.18
SD	13.97	13.39	21.66
CV	0.48	0.58	—
Max	70	56	+50
Min	14	0	-37

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	41.18%
28–34	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	23.53%	17.65%	17.65%	35.29%	—	—	100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.24	21.29	-1.06
SD	7.08	9.47	8.56
CV	0.35	0.44	—
Max	31	34	+14
Min	3	0	-23

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	29.41%
7–13	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
14–20	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%	5.88%	—	—	41.18%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	17.65%	17.65%	41.18%	11.76%	5.88%	—	100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	13.88	21.53	-7.65
SD	9.00	8.96	11.55
CV	0.65	0.42	—
Max	29	38	+5
Min	0	6	-35

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	17.65%	11.76%	—	—	—	29.41%
21–27	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
28–34	11.76%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
Total	17.65%	5.88%	35.29%	23.53%	17.65%	—	—	100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	23.65	19.24	+4.41
SD	9.64	9.44	14.78
CV	0.41	0.49	—
Max	48	33	+34
Min	9	0	-17

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	—	23.53%
7–13	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
14–20	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%
21–27	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	11.76%	23.53%	29.41%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.65	23.94	-8.29
SD	9.88	11.53	15.71
CV	0.63	0.48	—
Max	31	49	+17
Min	0	7	-40

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
7–13	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	11.76%	—	—	35.29%
14–20	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	23.53%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
28–34	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	11.76%	23.53%	17.65%	29.41%	5.88%	—	100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	15.76	20.88	-5.12
SD	9.11	10.20	15.28
CV	0.58	0.49	—
Max	31	37	+24
Min	0	3	-30

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	—	—	—	5.88%	17.65%
21–27	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	5.88%	—	35.29%
35–41	—	—	—	—	11.76%	—	—	11.76%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.88%	35.29%	17.65%	29.41%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	25.47	25.18	+0.29
SD	8.75	8.45	11.13
CV	0.34	0.34	—
Max	38	42	+14
Min	10	11	-23

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
7–13	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
14–20	—	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	—	17.65%	5.88%	—	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	29.41%	29.41%	23.53%	17.65%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.88	19.06	-1.18
SD	8.07	6.96	12.55
CV	0.45	0.37	—
Max	34	30	+23
Min	6	10	-24

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	5.88%	17.65%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	35.29%
35–41	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	17.65%
Total	5.88%	29.41%	29.41%	17.65%	17.65%	—	—	100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	28.88	17.53	+11.35
SD	8.96	8.37	14.12
CV	0.31	0.48	—
Max	45	33	+32
Min	17	3	-14

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	—	17.65%
14–20	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	5.88%	—	—	29.41%
21–27	5.88%	—	11.76%	—	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
28–34	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
35–41	—	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	17.65%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	35.29%	11.76%	29.41%	11.76%	—	100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	21.41	23.65	-2.24
SD	9.22	9.75	12.87
CV	0.43	0.41	—
Max	37	41	+21
Min	3	3	-34

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
7–13	5.88%	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	23.53%
14–20	5.88%	—	5.88%	17.65%	—	—	—	29.41%
21–27	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	—	17.65%
28–34	—	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.76%	11.76%	35.29%	35.29%	—	5.88%	—	100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	20.47	19.12	+1.35
SD	8.96	9.15	11.03
CV	0.44	0.48	—
Max	37	39	+18
Min	6	0	-14

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	—	—	—	17.65%
7–13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14–20	—	5.88%	23.53%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	47.06%
21–27	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	23.53%
35–41	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.88%	5.88%	35.29%	41.18%	11.76%	—	—	100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	17.94	21.59	-3.65
SD	8.66	7.35	12.13
CV	0.48	0.34	—
Max	28	34	+24
Min	3	3	-24

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0–6	7–13	14–20	21–27	28–34	35–41	42+	Total
0–6	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
7–13	—	—	5.88%	5.88%	—	5.88%	5.88%	23.53%
14–20	—	—	11.76%	—	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	35.29%
21–27	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%	—	—	11.76%
28–34	—	—	—	—	11.76%	5.88%	—	17.65%
35–41	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	—	5.88%
42+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	—	23.53%	5.88%	35.29%	23.53%	11.76%	100%

Washington Commanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	19.35	30.47	-11.12
SD	9.22	9.94	13.86
CV	0.48	0.33	—
Max	35	45	+8
Min	3	14	-35

Games Played: 17

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.70	+0.3
Allowed	0.35	-0.3
Differential	0.80	+0.2

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Ravens	13	10.23	+2.77
2	Los Angeles Rams	10	7.27	+2.73
3	Detroit Lions	12	9.71	+2.29
4	Houston Texans	10	7.78	+2.22
5	Cleveland Browns	11	8.91	+2.09

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Carolina Panthers	2	6.65	-4.65
2	Los Angeles Chargers	5	8.20	-3.20
3	Washington Commanders	4	7.00	-3.00
4	New England Patriots	4	6.99	-2.99
5	Minnesota Vikings	7	8.52	-1.52

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	5	Oct 22 – Nov 26	1 in 339
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	Oct 1 – Oct 29	1 in 37
3	Minnesota Vikings	5	Oct 15 – Nov 12	1 in 36
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Dec 23 – Jan 6	1 in 30
5	Baltimore Ravens	6	Nov 16 – Dec 31	1 in 28

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Commanders	8	Nov 12 – Jan 7	1 in 32
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Dec 3 – Dec 16	1 in 32
3	San Francisco 49ers	3	Oct 15 – Oct 29	1 in 30
4	Carolina Panthers	6	Sep 10 – Oct 15	1 in 29
5	Green Bay Packers	4	Sep 28 – Oct 29	1 in 27

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	66.60%	23.84%	7.49%	2.06%
Miami Dolphins	24.23%	43.99%	22.22%	9.56%
New England Patriots	4.50%	16.32%	35.15%	44.03%
New York Jets	4.67%	15.84%	35.14%	44.35%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	39.34%	28.64%	19.90%	12.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.54%	28.43%	23.16%	16.87%
Cleveland Browns	16.92%	23.20%	28.55%	31.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.20%	19.73%	28.39%	39.68%

Team	1	2	3	4
Jacksonville Jaguars	54.69%	25.17%	13.30%	6.84%
Houston Texans	17.81%	27.47%	28.28%	26.43%
Indianapolis Colts	13.96%	23.78%	29.02%	33.23%
Tennessee Titans	13.54%	23.58%	29.39%	33.50%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	81.59%	13.93%	3.64%	0.84%
Los Angeles Chargers	9.46%	38.62%	30.84%	21.09%
Las Vegas Raiders	6.18%	28.57%	34.51%	30.74%
Denver Broncos	2.77%	18.88%	31.02%	47.34%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	51.08%	38.27%	8.68%	1.98%
Dallas Cowboys	44.62%	43.27%	9.91%	2.20%
Washington Commanders	2.55%	10.77%	45.74%	40.94%
New York Giants	1.75%	7.68%	35.67%	54.89%

Team	1	2	3	4
Detroit Lions	45.56%	29.49%	18.39%	6.57%
Green Bay Packers	28.65%	31.49%	27.24%	12.63%
Minnesota Vikings	22.09%	29.34%	32.02%	16.56%
Chicago Bears	3.71%	9.69%	22.36%	64.24%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	42.05%	28.48%	19.28%	10.19%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27.60%	29.60%	26.19%	16.61%
Atlanta Falcons	22.94%	27.28%	28.62%	21.16%
Carolina Panthers	7.41%	14.64%	25.91%	52.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	84.82%	12.37%	2.48%	0.33%
Seattle Seahawks	9.99%	49.52%	29.58%	10.91%
Los Angeles Rams	4.44%	29.37%	43.09%	23.09%
Arizona Cardinals	0.75%	8.74%	24.84%	65.67%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kansas City Chiefs	34.51%	20.63%	14.18%	9.32%	6.13%	4.49%	3.20%	2.37%	1.67%	1.20%	0.84%	0.61%	0.40%	0.28%	0.12%	0.05%
Buffalo Bills	20.62%	18.19%	15.12%	11.20%	8.42%	6.58%	5.24%	3.91%	3.00%	2.46%	1.86%	1.32%	0.91%	0.59%	0.40%	0.18%
Baltimore Ravens	11.69%	13.14%	12.09%	10.58%	9.75%	8.23%	6.77%	6.08%	5.32%	4.27%	3.43%	2.88%	2.42%	1.79%	1.07%	0.48%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.98%	10.37%	9.82%	9.75%	9.51%	8.28%	7.35%	6.79%	6.29%	5.45%	4.54%	4.07%	3.39%	2.69%	1.80%	0.92%
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.75%	9.20%	10.85%	11.49%	10.01%	8.58%	7.89%	6.91%	6.03%	5.07%	4.39%	3.98%	3.11%	2.43%	1.99%	1.31%
Miami Dolphins	4.83%	6.55%	7.96%	8.76%	9.19%	9.69%	9.30%	8.40%	7.21%	6.46%	5.55%	4.97%	3.86%	3.24%	2.35%	1.67%
Cleveland Browns	3.62%	5.63%	6.34%	7.08%	7.99%	7.62%	7.45%	7.73%	8.10%	7.25%	6.68%	6.39%	6.30%	5.32%	4.00%	2.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.42%	4.02%	4.96%	5.82%	6.82%	7.02%	7.20%	7.70%	7.92%	7.78%	7.58%	7.31%	7.77%	6.86%	5.21%	3.60%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.93%	2.80%	3.73%	5.01%	6.32%	7.33%	7.96%	8.13%	7.93%	8.04%	8.00%	7.68%	6.93%	6.69%	6.09%	5.44%
Houston Texans	0.98%	2.19%	3.52%	4.71%	5.10%	5.82%	6.90%	7.11%	7.44%	7.86%	8.07%	8.22%	8.21%	7.80%	8.27%	7.82%
Las Vegas Raiders	1.02%	1.64%	2.43%	3.29%	4.38%	5.56%	6.28%	7.03%	7.38%	7.98%	8.53%	8.64%	8.90%	9.08%	8.88%	8.98%
Indianapolis Colts	0.72%	1.60%	2.60%	3.65%	4.18%	5.14%	5.65%	6.21%	6.84%	7.44%	7.98%	8.43%	9.02%	9.41%	10.34%	10.80%
Tennessee Titans	0.66%	1.55%	2.42%	3.49%	4.10%	4.79%	5.70%	6.26%	6.98%	7.43%	8.02%	8.61%	9.15%	9.35%	10.70%	10.80%
New York Jets	0.49%	0.95%	1.52%	2.09%	2.79%	3.73%	4.30%	5.22%	5.87%	7.18%	8.40%	9.07%	9.90%	11.34%	12.65%	14.50%
New England Patriots	0.45%	0.91%	1.40%	2.11%	2.82%	3.65%	4.46%	5.01%	6.12%	7.20%	8.13%	9.04%	9.74%	11.25%	12.59%	15.11%
Denver Broncos	0.32%	0.63%	1.07%	1.64%	2.50%	3.48%	4.34%	5.14%	5.90%	6.93%	7.99%	8.79%	9.99%	11.90%	13.53%	15.84%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
San Francisco 49ers	35.12%	22.60%	14.45%	9.37%	6.02%	4.09%	2.88%	2.03%	1.27%	0.86%	0.57%	0.36%	0.19%	0.11%	0.06%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	21.97%	17.21%	13.59%	11.54%	9.75%	7.56%	5.61%	4.06%	2.70%	2.12%	1.45%	1.06%	0.68%	0.41%	0.21%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	17.64%	15.90%	13.70%	12.17%	10.57%	8.51%	6.42%	4.65%	3.36%	2.39%	1.81%	1.18%	0.81%	0.47%	0.29%	0.12%
Detroit Lions	7.13%	10.94%	12.11%	11.36%	10.32%	9.31%	8.19%	6.92%	6.11%	4.93%	4.09%	3.03%	2.34%	1.63%	1.06%	0.52%
New Orleans Saints	4.23%	7.42%	9.60%	10.69%	9.87%	9.07%	8.84%	7.99%	6.93%	6.03%	5.26%	4.57%	3.65%	2.75%	1.93%	1.18%
Green Bay Packers	3.77%	6.59%	8.43%	8.71%	9.05%	9.34%	8.59%	8.25%	7.96%	7.02%	5.83%	5.06%	4.39%	3.30%	2.34%	1.35%
Minnesota Vikings	2.64%	4.82%	6.15%	6.84%	8.04%	8.52%	8.47%	8.38%	8.56%	8.15%	7.33%	6.63%	5.33%	4.43%	3.59%	2.12%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.13%	4.14%	6.15%	7.43%	7.75%	8.17%	8.76%	8.75%	8.27%	7.78%	7.46%	6.73%	5.62%	4.81%	3.75%	2.31%
Seattle Seahawks	1.96%	2.96%	4.15%	5.49%	7.18%	8.68%	9.94%	10.42%	8.97%	8.23%	7.92%	7.18%	5.80%	4.60%	3.72%	2.79%
Atlanta Falcons	1.73%	3.57%	5.20%	6.50%	7.02%	7.73%	8.21%	8.37%	8.19%	8.00%	7.79%	7.26%	6.71%	5.61%	4.75%	3.37%
Los Angeles Rams	0.61%	1.18%	1.81%	2.70%	4.11%	5.29%	6.44%	7.60%	8.36%	9.02%	9.91%	10.30%	9.34%	8.54%	7.64%	7.13%
Washington Commanders	0.40%	0.81%	1.24%	2.05%	2.79%	3.71%	4.63%	6.05%	7.95%	9.52%	10.25%	10.55%	10.87%	10.81%	9.93%	8.44%
Carolina Panthers	0.27%	0.78%	1.46%	2.04%	2.83%	3.57%	4.41%	5.23%	6.40%	7.16%	8.04%	9.24%	10.90%	12.22%	13.42%	12.04%
New York Giants	0.24%	0.51%	0.85%	1.31%	2.02%	2.63%	3.49%	4.59%	6.15%	7.67%	8.74%	9.77%	11.38%	12.92%	13.83%	13.88%
Chicago Bears	0.12%	0.43%	0.88%	1.39%	1.97%	2.66%	3.24%	4.07%	5.49%	6.56%	7.66%	9.30%	11.92%	14.00%	15.41%	14.90%
Arizona Cardinals	0.04%	0.13%	0.21%	0.40%	0.71%	1.15%	1.88%	2.64%	3.32%	4.56%	5.90%	7.76%	10.09%	13.39%	18.07%	29.74%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
San Francisco 49ers	20.28%	15.33%	11.89%	9.83%	7.42%	6.53%	4.88%	4.44%	3.23%	2.94%	2.25%	2.09%	1.61%	1.41%	1.06%	1.01%	0.76%	0.71%	0.44%	0.45%	0.27%	0.34%	0.18%	0.20%	0.12%	0.10%	0.08%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	<0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	19.30%	15.14%	11.26%	9.33%	7.56%	6.50%	5.10%	4.36%	3.52%	2.90%	2.49%	2.06%	1.82%	1.48%	1.33%	1.03%	0.84%	0.77%	0.63%	0.53%	0.46%	0.36%	0.32%	0.23%	0.21%	0.15%	0.11%	0.08%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%	<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.02%	10.26%	9.31%	7.90%	7.33%	6.30%	5.96%	5.53%	4.73%	4.48%	3.67%	3.67%	2.78%	2.78%	1.96%	2.01%	1.46%	1.55%	1.07%	1.07%	0.73%	0.79%	0.56%	0.58%	0.38%	0.34%	0.24%	0.23%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	10.51%	10.31%	9.44%	8.58%	7.89%	7.13%	5.99%	5.44%	4.69%	4.03%	3.54%	3.05%	2.86%	2.48%	2.19%	1.78%	1.53%	1.40%	1.34%	1.13%	0.98%	0.74%	0.70%	0.53%	0.47%	0.32%	0.31%	0.21%	0.18%	0.12%	0.07%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	8.95%	8.92%	8.24%	7.95%	7.07%	6.78%	6.03%	5.75%	5.00%	5.08%	3.95%	4.13%	3.02%	3.34%	2.26%	2.40%	1.73%	1.80%	1.30%	1.25%	0.92%	0.93%	0.71%	0.61%	0.47%	0.43%	0.29%	0.24%	0.19%	0.14%	0.08%	0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	5.40%	6.44%	6.77%	6.65%	6.58%	5.90%	5.82%	5.03%	5.38%	4.58%	4.73%	3.64%	3.72%	3.17%	3.48%	2.89%	2.76%	2.13%	2.31%	1.91%	1.93%	1.43%	1.43%	1.20%	1.19%	0.95%	0.80%	0.66%	0.49%	0.33%	0.21%	0.10%
Detroit Lions	3.15%	4.30%	5.12%	5.66%	5.41%	5.90%	5.50%	5.52%	5.10%	5.08%	4.55%	4.67%	4.07%	4.09%	3.32%	3.44%	3.15%	3.21%	2.54%	2.47%	2.00%	2.23%	1.71%	1.63%	1.27%	1.21%	0.93%	0.94%	0.66%	0.56%	0.35%	0.25%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.96%	4.76%	5.28%	5.23%	5.38%	5.04%	5.40%	4.80%	5.14%	4.52%	4.59%	3.88%	4.11%	3.47%	3.96%	3.30%	3.35%	2.62%	2.86%	2.58%	2.55%	2.03%	1.96%	1.78%	1.71%	1.38%	1.19%	1.06%	0.82%	0.64%	0.46%	0.19%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.04%	3.69%	4.49%	4.74%	5.46%	5.27%	5.67%	5.47%	5.21%	4.90%	4.52%	4.36%	4.46%	3.91%	3.60%	3.25%	3.28%	2.95%	2.88%	2.45%	2.40%	2.07%	2.09%	1.77%	1.67%	1.42%	1.25%	1.04%	0.99%	0.77%	0.60%	0.31%
New Orleans Saints	1.80%	2.63%	3.20%	4.11%	4.27%	4.95%	4.59%	5.30%	4.49%	5.06%	4.31%	4.83%	4.24%	4.41%	3.68%	3.96%	3.67%	3.71%	2.95%	2.92%	2.75%	2.89%	2.37%	2.42%	1.92%	1.94%	1.60%	1.47%	1.17%	1.06%	0.77%	0.57%
Miami Dolphins	2.03%	2.65%	3.35%	3.53%	4.16%	4.25%	4.54%	4.49%	4.78%	4.78%	4.84%	4.69%	4.65%	4.72%	4.30%	4.06%	3.71%	3.51%	3.53%	3.06%	2.96%	2.53%	2.68%	2.22%	2.07%	1.66%	1.68%	1.24%	1.23%	0.87%	0.81%	0.42%
Green Bay Packers	1.63%	2.32%	2.99%	3.61%	3.68%	4.36%	4.01%	4.52%	4.17%	4.65%	4.24%	4.70%	4.13%	4.24%	3.94%	4.21%	3.79%	4.04%	3.44%	3.55%	2.94%	3.15%	2.59%	2.69%	2.25%	2.30%	1.85%	1.74%	1.38%	1.31%	0.87%	0.71%
Cleveland Browns	1.41%	2.17%	2.64%	3.12%	3.31%	3.41%	3.69%	3.80%	4.23%	4.04%	4.11%	3.87%	3.94%	3.82%	4.56%	4.06%	4.04%	3.57%	3.82%	3.65%	3.74%	3.03%	3.21%	2.94%	3.26%	2.64%	2.57%	2.11%	1.93%	1.44%	1.20%	0.69%
Minnesota Vikings	1.05%	1.47%	2.13%	2.49%	2.94%	3.00%	3.33%	3.50%	3.76%	3.89%	4.01%	4.20%	4.18%	4.23%	3.92%	4.04%	4.20%	4.37%	3.83%	3.92%	3.51%	3.94%	3.29%	3.58%	2.84%	2.96%	2.31%	2.50%	2.03%	1.97%	1.41%	1.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.75%	1.28%	1.83%	2.20%	2.76%	3.06%	3.24%	3.67%	3.62%	3.84%	3.75%	4.21%	4.07%	4.32%	3.90%	4.43%	4.01%	4.40%	3.63%	4.01%	3.53%	4.06%	3.38%	3.57%	2.96%	3.21%	2.57%	2.68%	2.07%	2.18%	1.55%	1.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.92%	1.41%	2.02%	2.14%	2.58%	2.73%	3.22%	3.09%	3.65%	3.53%	3.97%	3.57%	3.75%	3.73%	4.52%	3.91%	4.14%	3.47%	4.15%	4.07%	4.18%	3.40%	3.78%	3.53%	3.97%	3.19%	3.29%	2.70%	2.56%	1.99%	1.77%	1.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.68%	1.07%	1.43%	1.76%	2.08%	2.22%	2.77%	2.82%	3.28%	3.66%	3.86%	4.15%	4.29%	4.83%	4.28%	5.01%	4.42%	4.76%	3.80%	4.16%	3.77%	4.37%	3.53%	3.82%	3.02%	3.31%	2.58%	2.70%	2.17%	2.24%	1.69%	1.49%
Atlanta Falcons	0.64%	1.08%	1.45%	2.08%	2.13%	2.86%	2.74%	3.32%	3.15%	3.62%	3.53%	4.05%	3.74%	4.16%	3.76%	4.23%	3.96%	4.23%	3.77%	3.99%	3.63%	4.17%	3.68%	3.75%	3.36%	3.43%	3.17%	3.14%	2.51%	2.67%	2.06%	1.93%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.69%	1.08%	1.40%	1.62%	2.04%	2.09%	2.73%	2.53%	3.36%	3.30%	3.86%	3.51%	4.11%	3.87%	4.32%	3.88%	4.16%	3.96%	4.32%	4.11%	4.18%	3.74%	3.98%	3.67%	3.69%	3.42%	3.52%	2.88%	3.21%	2.53%	2.63%	1.61%
Houston Texans	0.29%	0.63%	0.95%	1.26%	1.59%	1.91%	2.20%	2.51%	2.53%	2.74%	3.00%	3.12%	3.53%	3.54%	3.70%	3.58%	3.98%	3.84%	4.29%	3.92%	4.36%	3.81%	4.44%	4.00%	4.31%	3.94%	4.13%	3.80%	4.11%	3.49%	3.80%	2.69%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.30%	0.58%	0.80%	0.95%	1.25%	1.36%	1.74%	1.84%	2.24%	2.40%	2.82%	2.82%	3.16%	3.27%	3.81%	3.66%	3.76%	3.70%	4.26%	4.06%	4.53%	3.97%	4.66%	4.26%	4.67%	4.31%	4.71%	4.14%	4.62%	3.88%	4.24%	3.21%
Indianapolis Colts	0.20%	0.44%	0.71%	0.85%	1.23%	1.39%	1.67%	1.99%	2.12%	2.19%	2.65%	2.67%	3.11%	2.80%	3.36%	3.23%	3.58%	3.47%	4.09%	3.68%	4.35%	3.84%	4.56%	4.15%	4.85%	4.49%	4.89%	4.53%	5.24%	4.66%	4.97%	4.03%
Tennessee Titans	0.18%	0.37%	0.66%	0.88%	1.13%	1.37%	1.58%	1.84%	2.17%	2.06%	2.52%	2.56%	3.10%	2.77%	3.39%	3.16%	3.77%	3.44%	4.23%	3.67%	4.46%	3.80%	4.74%	4.17%	4.87%	4.48%	4.99%	4.46%	5.32%	4.83%	5.01%	4.02%
Los Angeles Rams	0.16%	0.37%	0.54%	0.61%	0.86%	0.97%	1.32%	1.41%	1.87%	2.09%	2.41%	2.63%	2.82%	3.07%	3.14%	3.81%	3.80%	4.26%	3.82%	4.58%	4.23%	5.20%	4.49%	5.28%	4.51%	5.26%	4.45%	4.90%	4.27%	4.53%	4.08%	4.24%
Washington Commanders	0.11%	0.21%	0.35%	0.46%	0.58%	0.71%	0.98%	1.06%	1.25%	1.49%	1.67%	2.07%	1.99%	2.53%	2.70%	3.20%	3.31%	4.01%	3.87%	4.71%	4.35%	5.33%	4.74%	5.46%	5.01%	5.67%	5.31%	5.80%	5.20%	5.65%	4.98%	5.24%
New York Jets	0.14%	0.27%	0.41%	0.55%	0.74%	0.83%	1.09%	1.18%	1.41%	1.56%	1.95%	1.95%	2.31%	2.33%	2.80%	2.74%	3.05%	3.12%	3.98%	3.82%	4.42%	3.95%	4.88%	4.57%	5.29%	4.78%	6.05%	5.52%	6.43%	5.61%	6.69%	5.56%
New England Patriots	0.14%	0.25%	0.40%	0.49%	0.72%	0.79%	1.16%	1.14%	1.49%	1.40%	1.94%	1.87%	2.33%	2.35%	2.77%	2.76%	3.12%	3.17%	3.94%	3.78%	4.36%	3.96%	4.72%	4.58%	5.10%	5.01%	5.77%	5.56%	6.28%	5.97%	6.94%	5.71%
Denver Broncos	0.09%	0.18%	0.28%	0.37%	0.54%	0.61%	0.84%	0.95%	1.27%	1.35%	1.80%	1.75%	2.32%	2.34%	2.75%	2.61%	3.06%	3.08%	3.81%	3.68%	4.29%	3.91%	4.74%	4.52%	5.22%	5.09%	6.19%	5.74%	6.70%	6.28%	7.36%	6.27%
Carolina Panthers	0.07%	0.17%	0.27%	0.42%	0.52%	0.75%	0.84%	1.07%	1.17%	1.40%	1.62%	1.81%	2.01%	2.16%	2.33%	2.62%	3.05%	3.25%	3.15%	3.50%	3.77%	4.25%	4.15%	4.77%	4.95%	5.60%	5.48%	6.59%	6.10%	7.49%	6.96%	7.72%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.12%	0.21%	0.29%	0.38%	0.45%	0.63%	0.68%	0.87%	1.04%	1.21%	1.42%	1.54%	1.90%	2.07%	2.33%	2.67%	3.10%	3.27%	3.79%	3.66%	4.59%	4.31%	4.99%	5.05%	5.82%	5.77%	6.79%	6.73%	7.85%	7.57%	8.84%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.08%	0.15%	0.23%	0.34%	0.45%	0.57%	0.73%	0.84%	1.00%	1.16%	1.40%	1.46%	1.63%	1.82%	2.09%	2.50%	2.67%	2.96%	3.23%	3.44%	4.05%	4.27%	4.72%	5.20%	5.89%	6.17%	7.33%	7.37%	8.37%	8.08%	9.80%
Arizona Cardinals	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%	0.07%	0.12%	0.17%	0.21%	0.29%	0.39%	0.47%	0.57%	0.73%	0.85%	1.01%	1.31%	1.43%	1.74%	1.72%	2.30%	2.36%	3.13%	3.15%	3.81%	4.15%	5.28%	5.73%	7.14%	7.82%	10.43%	12.67%	20.80%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	34.51%	21.47%	15.80%	9.81%	4.52%	3.72%	2.86%	7.30%
Buffalo Bills	20.62%	18.59%	16.93%	10.47%	7.31%	6.46%	5.16%	14.47%
Baltimore Ravens	11.69%	12.73%	9.79%	5.13%	14.36%	10.04%	7.69%	28.57%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.98%	10.04%	7.86%	4.66%	13.47%	9.98%	8.22%	36.79%
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.75%	9.75%	13.84%	24.35%	3.11%	4.35%	5.26%	32.60%
Miami Dolphins	4.83%	6.25%	7.43%	5.71%	10.88%	10.87%	9.94%	44.08%
Cleveland Browns	3.62%	5.40%	4.84%	3.07%	10.10%	9.28%	8.37%	55.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.42%	3.82%	3.64%	2.31%	8.66%	8.04%	8.24%	62.87%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.93%	2.43%	2.80%	2.30%	7.92%	8.55%	8.61%	65.47%
Las Vegas Raiders	1.02%	1.50%	1.92%	1.74%	5.04%	6.18%	6.71%	75.89%
Houston Texans	0.98%	2.29%	4.50%	10.04%	2.64%	4.20%	5.76%	69.59%
Indianapolis Colts	0.72%	1.68%	3.36%	8.21%	2.14%	3.69%	4.77%	75.44%
Tennessee Titans	0.66%	1.63%	3.24%	8.00%	2.08%	3.43%	4.78%	76.18%
New York Jets	0.49%	0.95%	1.62%	1.61%	2.59%	3.75%	4.51%	84.48%
New England Patriots	0.45%	0.90%	1.54%	1.61%	2.59%	3.79%	4.59%	84.54%
Denver Broncos	0.32%	0.56%	0.90%	0.99%	2.58%	3.69%	4.56%	86.39%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	35.12%	24.06%	16.23%	9.41%	3.96%	3.38%	2.63%	5.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	21.97%	15.20%	9.42%	4.48%	19.76%	9.87%	6.28%	13.02%
Dallas Cowboys	17.64%	13.85%	8.83%	4.29%	21.90%	11.06%	7.09%	15.34%
Detroit Lions	7.13%	11.68%	13.91%	12.84%	7.05%	8.88%	7.97%	30.54%
New Orleans Saints	4.23%	8.07%	11.88%	17.88%	4.26%	6.62%	7.65%	39.42%
Green Bay Packers	3.77%	7.04%	9.33%	8.50%	7.26%	9.57%	8.83%	45.68%
Minnesota Vikings	2.64%	5.17%	7.04%	7.25%	6.19%	8.48%	8.58%	54.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.13%	4.60%	7.76%	13.11%	3.86%	6.17%	7.72%	54.66%
Seattle Seahawks	1.96%	2.66%	2.96%	2.40%	8.87%	10.31%	10.86%	59.97%
Atlanta Falcons	1.73%	3.90%	6.50%	10.82%	3.73%	6.23%	7.56%	59.54%
Los Angeles Rams	0.61%	1.11%	1.40%	1.32%	4.38%	6.03%	6.92%	78.22%
Washington Commanders	0.40%	0.70%	0.78%	0.67%	3.28%	4.17%	5.04%	84.96%
Carolina Panthers	0.27%	0.87%	1.99%	4.28%	1.45%	2.78%	4.00%	84.35%
New York Giants	0.24%	0.44%	0.59%	0.48%	2.28%	2.82%	3.73%	89.42%
Chicago Bears	0.12%	0.51%	1.16%	1.92%	1.18%	2.44%	3.25%	89.42%
Arizona Cardinals	0.04%	0.14%	0.23%	0.34%	0.58%	1.18%	1.91%	95.57%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+11.03%

Fortress

55.51%44.49%

Elo Value

Home Edge

21 Elo

0.047 points per Elo point

038.4860

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+2.68 points

Lean Home

-8+1.80+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd to 5th · Middle of the Pack: 6th to 16th · Longshot: 17th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 3.12% · Tough Road: 3.12% to 6.25% · Favored: 6.25% to 12.5% · Heavy Favorite: 12.5% and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.4

Wide Open

124811

Champion Preseason Odds

11%

Kansas City Chiefs, 4th of 32

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

3.6%

Tough Road

06.25%20%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 1.57 · As Expected: 1.57 to 2.16 · Elevated: 2.16 to 2.95 · High Variance: 2.95 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 5.26 · Close: 5.26 to 7.12 · Off Target: 7.12 to 9.29 · Well Off Target: 9.29 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 32 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 1.6 · As Expected: 1.6 to 3.84 · Several Outliers: 3.84 to 7.04 · Many Outliers: 7.04 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 3.17 · As Expected: 3.17 to 5.28 · More Than Expected: 5.28 to 8.45 · Far More Than Expected: 8.45 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

1.78 wins

As Expected

01.965

Average Finish Error

Expected

4.75

Pinpoint

06.1915

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 98.44%

95.96%

Baltimore Ravens

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 1.56%

1.40%

Carolina Panthers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 32

As Expected

03.216

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

4 of 14

As Expected

04.214

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 17 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.79

Compressed

01.003

Interquartile Edge

67%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

No Contest

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

25%

Some Drama

0%16%100%

Blowouts

Expected

28%

Frequent

0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.23

Hard to Predict

00.231

Matchup Imbalance

0.25

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.81

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.46

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

40%

Upset-Prone

0%37%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

33%

Shaky Favorites

0%31%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.04 · Within Noise: 0.04 to 0.09 · Above Noise: 0.09 to 0.17 · Well Above Noise: 0.17 and up.

Probability calibration

0.33

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.85

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.072

Within Noise

00.0850.2

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	80.56%	80.56%	57.65%	38.60%	22.79%
Buffalo Bills	65.95%	65.95%	42.02%	24.80%	13.67%
Baltimore Ravens	59.74%	54.25%	36.20%	22.88%	13.51%
Kansas City Chiefs	72.56%	72.56%	42.36%	22.12%	10.75%
Dallas Cowboys	67.02%	60.85%	36.91%	20.03%	10.53%
Philadelphia Eagles	65.01%	57.28%	28.44%	12.60%	5.42%
Detroit Lions	62.33%	43.32%	20.92%	9.41%	4.32%
Cincinnati Bengals	54.23%	36.25%	16.67%	7.16%	3.04%
Miami Dolphins	51.08%	30.56%	14.04%	6.12%	2.64%
New Orleans Saints	56.35%	32.65%	13.06%	4.90%	1.95%
Green Bay Packers	50.55%	28.29%	11.71%	4.49%	1.83%
Jacksonville Jaguars	60.65%	35.42%	13.09%	4.83%	1.78%
Cleveland Browns	41.05%	22.52%	9.39%	3.78%	1.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	43.21%	22.17%	8.18%	2.92%	1.14%
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.71%	17.40%	6.86%	2.60%	0.98%
Minnesota Vikings	42.70%	19.70%	6.75%	2.16%	0.73%
Seattle Seahawks	38.06%	16.37%	5.73%	1.96%	0.69%
Las Vegas Raiders	23.09%	9.68%	3.43%	1.18%	0.43%
Houston Texans	29.43%	12.46%	3.96%	1.23%	0.41%
Los Angeles Rams	21.17%	8.95%	3.25%	1.16%	0.40%
Los Angeles Chargers	32.60%	11.86%	3.44%	0.98%	0.29%
Atlanta Falcons	38.73%	14.53%	3.80%	0.95%	0.28%
Indianapolis Colts	23.84%	9.17%	2.60%	0.75%	0.23%
Tennessee Titans	23.15%	7.96%	2.04%	0.51%	0.15%
Denver Broncos	13.28%	4.54%	1.38%	0.42%	0.14%
New York Jets	15.03%	5.14%	1.49%	0.42%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	10.46%	3.64%	1.02%	0.26%	0.09%
New York Giants	10.34%	3.42%	0.93%	0.24%	0.08%
New England Patriots	15.01%	4.28%	1.03%	0.23%	0.05%
Washington Commanders	14.64%	3.64%	0.79%	0.16%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers	15.38%	3.59%	0.65%	0.12%	0.03%
Arizona Cardinals	4.38%	1.03%	0.22%	0.05%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		51.1%6.42%	68.8%6.68%	72.0%4.68%	83.1%1.43%	77.6%3.68%	80.7%3.00%	73.2%7.55%	57.8%5.43%	78.1%2.40%	83.6%3.20%	67.7%5.35%	85.9%1.67%	83.4%1.65%	75.8%3.64%	82.7%2.94%
Buffalo Bills	48.9%6.42%		67.9%6.30%	71.2%5.16%	80.1%2.03%	77.9%3.31%	79.4%2.64%	70.6%5.41%	54.2%4.76%	75.2%3.62%	82.2%4.87%	64.6%8.61%	84.4%2.35%	81.3%2.30%	72.2%4.55%	82.4%2.58%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.2%6.68%	32.1%6.30%		54.4%3.77%	66.2%1.14%	60.2%3.30%	64.2%2.76%	52.8%6.80%	36.0%5.50%	61.8%2.00%	69.2%2.90%	49.3%4.66%	74.0%1.36%	68.1%1.40%	57.2%3.05%	68.4%2.61%
Cleveland Browns	28.0%4.68%	28.8%5.16%	45.6%3.77%		63.0%0.71%	57.7%2.29%	61.3%1.89%	50.4%5.56%	34.8%4.74%	57.8%1.26%	64.1%1.93%	45.9%3.43%	71.0%0.92%	65.3%0.94%	51.0%1.88%	65.6%1.88%
Denver Broncos	16.9%1.43%	19.9%2.03%	33.8%1.14%	37.0%0.71%		43.0%0.57%	46.0%0.51%	37.6%1.66%	25.8%2.24%	39.0%0.16%	50.8%0.26%	33.3%1.04%	58.2%0.26%	49.8%0.23%	35.3%0.58%	49.4%0.45%
Houston Texans	22.4%3.68%	22.1%3.31%	39.8%3.30%	42.3%2.29%	57.0%0.57%		53.2%0.73%	43.6%3.23%	28.4%2.93%	49.3%1.18%	57.3%1.65%	39.6%2.62%	66.3%0.68%	61.2%0.64%	46.0%1.88%	56.4%0.74%
Indianapolis Colts	19.3%3.00%	20.6%2.64%	35.8%2.76%	38.7%1.89%	54.0%0.51%	46.8%0.73%		40.2%2.59%	24.1%2.34%	44.7%0.77%	54.8%1.33%	34.0%2.08%	59.5%0.48%	55.1%0.58%	43.6%1.58%	55.5%0.56%
Jacksonville Jaguars	26.8%7.55%	29.4%5.41%	47.2%6.80%	49.6%5.56%	62.4%1.66%	56.4%3.23%	59.8%2.59%		33.6%4.08%	57.1%2.87%	64.1%4.25%	44.0%5.94%	69.1%1.78%	64.0%1.73%	51.1%4.79%	64.2%2.41%
Kansas City Chiefs	42.2%5.43%	45.8%4.76%	64.0%5.50%	65.2%4.74%	74.2%2.24%	71.6%2.93%	75.9%2.34%	66.4%4.08%		69.5%3.76%	76.1%5.11%	61.8%6.23%	82.4%2.23%	76.9%2.16%	68.6%4.37%	81.1%2.32%
Las Vegas Raiders	21.9%2.40%	24.8%3.62%	38.2%2.00%	42.2%1.26%	61.0%0.16%	50.7%1.18%	55.3%0.77%	42.9%2.87%	30.5%3.76%		56.8%0.52%	38.0%1.86%	66.9%0.44%	57.0%0.41%	44.4%1.01%	56.0%0.85%
Los Angeles Chargers	16.4%3.20%	17.8%4.87%	30.8%2.90%	35.9%1.93%	49.2%0.26%	42.7%1.65%	45.2%1.33%	35.9%4.25%	23.9%5.11%	43.2%0.52%		28.5%2.58%	55.4%0.65%	49.6%0.62%	37.3%1.53%	47.6%1.20%
Miami Dolphins	32.3%5.35%	35.4%8.61%	50.7%4.66%	54.1%3.43%	66.7%1.04%	60.4%2.62%	66.0%2.08%	56.0%5.94%	38.2%6.23%	62.0%1.86%	71.5%2.58%		76.9%0.85%	69.0%0.89%	58.0%2.87%	69.4%2.05%
New England Patriots	14.1%1.67%	15.6%2.35%	26.0%1.36%	29.0%0.92%	41.8%0.26%	33.7%0.68%	40.5%0.48%	30.9%1.78%	17.6%2.23%	33.1%0.44%	44.6%0.65%	23.1%0.85%		44.8%0.17%	31.7%0.65%	41.4%0.52%
New York Jets	16.6%1.65%	18.7%2.30%	31.9%1.40%	34.7%0.94%	50.2%0.23%	38.8%0.64%	44.9%0.58%	36.0%1.73%	23.1%2.16%	43.0%0.41%	50.4%0.62%	31.0%0.89%	55.2%0.17%		38.7%0.79%	51.8%0.51%
Pittsburgh Steelers	24.2%3.64%	27.8%4.55%	42.8%3.05%	49.0%1.88%	64.7%0.58%	54.0%1.88%	56.4%1.58%	48.9%4.79%	31.4%4.37%	55.6%1.01%	62.7%1.53%	42.0%2.87%	68.3%0.65%	61.3%0.79%		62.0%1.53%
Tennessee Titans	17.3%2.94%	17.6%2.58%	31.6%2.61%	34.4%1.88%	50.6%0.45%	43.6%0.74%	44.5%0.56%	35.8%2.41%	18.9%2.32%	44.0%0.85%	52.4%1.20%	30.6%2.05%	58.6%0.52%	48.2%0.51%	38.0%1.53%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		35.3%0.22%	48.7%0.08%	41.9%0.04%	15.5%0.50%	20.5%0.57%	26.2%0.34%	23.3%0.03%	31.7%0.31%	25.1%0.47%	38.9%0.04%	20.5%0.58%	9.4%0.80%	40.6%0.07%	26.9%0.29%	56.9%0.05%
Atlanta Falcons	64.7%0.22%		67.6%0.72%	47.9%0.60%	23.9%5.35%	28.0%4.24%	34.8%3.35%	39.6%1.32%	41.8%2.73%	33.4%4.27%	53.9%0.70%	30.5%5.12%	14.5%4.09%	44.4%2.48%	37.3%2.68%	61.2%0.87%
Carolina Panthers	51.3%0.08%	32.4%0.72%		36.0%0.21%	14.3%2.16%	17.8%1.67%	21.6%1.33%	26.4%0.48%	30.0%1.01%	21.9%1.46%	42.2%0.25%	19.2%2.08%	9.8%1.86%	32.0%0.85%	25.0%0.88%	45.4%0.33%
Chicago Bears	58.1%0.04%	52.1%0.60%	64.0%0.21%		24.2%1.39%	27.3%1.30%	35.9%0.77%	42.9%0.27%	44.9%0.55%	32.8%0.98%	54.7%0.15%	32.4%1.41%	17.9%1.45%	46.8%0.49%	36.1%0.68%	69.5%0.17%
Dallas Cowboys	84.5%0.50%	76.1%5.35%	85.7%2.16%	75.8%1.39%		56.1%7.69%	64.8%6.06%	71.7%2.38%	72.1%5.17%	63.6%8.04%	79.5%1.08%	60.9%9.23%	37.6%6.59%	72.1%4.12%	66.4%5.78%	85.1%1.48%
Detroit Lions	79.5%0.57%	72.0%4.24%	82.2%1.67%	72.7%1.30%	43.9%7.69%		57.5%7.36%	64.4%2.66%	64.9%5.81%	56.1%5.77%	74.4%1.33%	53.5%7.20%	31.6%5.56%	66.6%4.64%	60.0%4.69%	82.7%1.84%
Green Bay Packers	73.8%0.34%	65.2%3.35%	78.4%1.33%	64.1%0.77%	35.2%6.06%	42.5%7.36%		57.5%1.72%	56.6%3.96%	50.3%5.10%	67.7%0.78%	45.5%5.98%	25.0%5.43%	59.8%3.36%	51.4%3.72%	75.9%1.29%
Los Angeles Rams	76.7%0.03%	60.4%1.32%	73.6%0.48%	57.1%0.27%	28.3%2.38%	35.6%2.66%	42.5%1.72%		49.4%1.47%	42.3%2.25%	62.5%0.18%	37.7%2.36%	21.5%3.61%	51.5%0.55%	45.4%1.62%	70.7%0.27%
Minnesota Vikings	68.3%0.31%	58.2%2.73%	70.0%1.01%	55.1%0.55%	27.9%5.17%	35.1%5.81%	43.4%3.96%	50.6%1.47%		40.5%4.28%	57.7%0.65%	37.4%5.09%	19.7%4.99%	50.7%2.60%	42.4%3.10%	69.5%0.97%
New Orleans Saints	74.9%0.47%	66.6%4.27%	78.1%1.46%	67.2%0.98%	36.4%8.04%	43.9%5.77%	49.7%5.10%	57.7%2.25%	59.5%4.28%		66.8%1.05%	46.2%7.26%	25.6%4.70%	59.4%4.26%	52.8%4.83%	76.3%1.65%
New York Giants	61.1%0.04%	46.1%0.70%	57.8%0.25%	45.3%0.15%	20.5%1.08%	25.6%1.33%	32.3%0.78%	37.5%0.18%	42.3%0.65%	33.2%1.05%		28.4%1.13%	16.0%1.68%	36.0%0.38%	39.2%0.84%	63.9%0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	79.5%0.58%	69.5%5.12%	80.8%2.08%	67.6%1.41%	39.1%9.23%	46.5%7.20%	54.5%5.98%	62.3%2.36%	62.6%5.09%	53.8%7.26%	71.6%1.13%		29.8%5.86%	63.7%4.36%	56.5%5.74%	80.9%1.62%
San Francisco 49ers	90.6%0.80%	85.5%4.09%	90.2%1.86%	82.1%1.45%	62.4%6.59%	68.4%5.56%	75.0%5.43%	78.5%3.61%	80.3%4.99%	74.4%4.70%	84.0%1.68%	70.2%5.86%		79.2%6.47%	77.1%4.27%	90.5%2.31%
Seattle Seahawks	59.4%0.07%	55.6%2.48%	68.0%0.85%	53.2%0.49%	27.9%4.12%	33.4%4.64%	40.2%3.36%	48.5%0.55%	49.3%2.60%	40.6%4.26%	64.0%0.38%	36.3%4.36%	20.8%6.47%		44.4%2.92%	67.9%0.52%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.1%0.29%	62.7%2.68%	75.0%0.88%	63.9%0.68%	33.6%5.78%	40.0%4.69%	48.6%3.72%	54.6%1.62%	57.6%3.10%	47.2%4.83%	60.8%0.84%	43.5%5.74%	22.9%4.27%	55.6%2.92%		74.0%1.16%
Washington Commanders	43.1%0.05%	38.8%0.87%	54.6%0.33%	30.5%0.17%	14.9%1.48%	17.3%1.84%	24.1%1.29%	29.3%0.27%	30.5%0.97%	23.7%1.65%	36.1%0.10%	19.1%1.62%	9.5%2.31%	32.1%0.52%	26.0%1.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		53.9%11.69%	68.8%5.38%	71.7%2.93%	80.4%0.67%	79.9%1.85%	81.9%1.35%	74.9%5.75%	59.2%11.90%	76.9%1.42%	82.9%1.68%	69.5%4.71%	82.7%0.71%	82.9%0.80%	73.7%2.23%	81.2%1.19%
Buffalo Bills	46.1%11.69%		64.6%7.26%	70.0%4.65%	77.4%0.87%	76.0%2.71%	78.1%1.98%	72.2%7.41%	55.1%12.73%	75.7%1.83%	79.8%2.20%	63.9%5.70%	84.6%0.68%	80.1%0.84%	70.7%3.66%	81.5%1.76%
Cincinnati Bengals	31.2%5.38%	35.4%7.26%		50.8%1.85%	66.2%0.45%	63.1%1.15%	68.2%0.83%	56.8%3.40%	41.0%7.63%	60.6%0.93%	64.8%1.15%	49.2%3.16%	70.7%0.43%	69.1%0.51%	57.5%1.42%	70.4%0.73%
Cleveland Browns	28.3%2.93%	30.0%4.65%	49.2%1.85%		67.7%0.19%	54.3%0.62%	61.3%0.47%	53.7%2.04%	36.7%5.23%	54.1%0.56%	66.2%0.64%	45.9%1.77%	70.4%0.24%	57.9%0.27%	50.1%0.64%	69.5%0.43%
Denver Broncos	19.6%0.67%	22.6%0.87%	33.8%0.45%	32.3%0.19%		42.3%0.08%	65.8%0.08%	43.6%0.41%	28.3%1.09%	39.4%0.03%	56.0%0.05%	29.5%0.31%	40.9%0.02%	52.6%0.04%	40.7%0.17%	51.2%0.08%
Houston Texans	20.1%1.85%	24.0%2.71%	36.9%1.15%	45.7%0.62%	57.7%0.08%		60.2%0.08%	47.5%0.53%	28.0%3.16%	45.8%0.23%	53.9%0.31%	35.3%0.94%	57.9%0.11%	57.1%0.14%	44.7%0.48%	55.6%0.06%
Indianapolis Colts	18.1%1.35%	21.9%1.98%	31.8%0.83%	38.7%0.47%	34.2%0.08%	39.8%0.08%		35.1%0.40%	27.1%2.36%	39.1%0.18%	45.7%0.25%	33.7%0.62%	63.9%0.08%	39.8%0.11%	38.6%0.34%	43.8%0.05%
Jacksonville Jaguars	25.1%5.75%	27.8%7.41%	43.2%3.40%	46.3%2.04%	56.4%0.41%	52.5%0.53%	64.9%0.40%		33.7%8.06%	50.9%0.84%	60.4%0.98%	42.0%2.90%	67.5%0.37%	57.6%0.49%	47.5%1.53%	62.5%0.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	40.8%11.90%	44.9%12.73%	59.0%7.63%	63.3%5.23%	71.7%1.09%	72.0%3.16%	72.9%2.36%	66.3%8.06%		69.1%2.26%	75.5%2.80%	59.9%6.84%	79.8%1.04%	75.7%1.28%	64.8%4.14%	78.8%2.03%
Las Vegas Raiders	23.1%1.42%	24.3%1.83%	39.4%0.93%	45.9%0.56%	60.6%0.03%	54.2%0.23%	60.9%0.18%	49.1%0.84%	30.9%2.26%		56.2%0.15%	38.9%0.62%	65.7%0.07%	61.6%0.07%	49.7%0.34%	54.8%0.15%
Los Angeles Chargers	17.1%1.68%	20.2%2.20%	35.2%1.15%	33.8%0.64%	44.0%0.05%	46.1%0.31%	54.3%0.25%	39.6%0.98%	24.5%2.80%	43.8%0.15%		34.2%0.80%	58.3%0.10%	53.6%0.11%	37.9%0.50%	49.3%0.15%
Miami Dolphins	30.5%4.71%	36.1%5.70%	50.8%3.16%	54.1%1.77%	70.5%0.31%	64.7%0.94%	66.3%0.62%	58.0%2.90%	40.1%6.84%	61.1%0.62%	65.8%0.80%		76.8%0.18%	69.3%0.18%	60.1%1.28%	69.6%0.55%
New England Patriots	17.3%0.71%	15.4%0.68%	29.3%0.43%	29.6%0.24%	59.1%0.02%	42.1%0.11%	36.1%0.08%	32.5%0.37%	20.2%1.04%	34.3%0.07%	41.7%0.10%	23.2%0.18%		33.3%0.02%	26.7%0.15%	49.3%0.07%
New York Jets	17.1%0.80%	19.9%0.84%	30.9%0.51%	42.1%0.27%	47.4%0.04%	42.9%0.14%	60.2%0.11%	42.4%0.49%	24.3%1.28%	38.4%0.07%	46.4%0.11%	30.7%0.18%	66.7%0.02%		37.0%0.20%	41.5%0.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	26.3%2.23%	29.3%3.66%	42.5%1.42%	49.9%0.64%	59.3%0.17%	55.3%0.48%	61.4%0.34%	52.5%1.53%	35.2%4.14%	50.3%0.34%	62.1%0.50%	39.9%1.28%	73.3%0.15%	63.0%0.20%		66.7%0.31%
Tennessee Titans	18.8%1.19%	18.5%1.76%	29.6%0.73%	30.5%0.43%	48.8%0.08%	44.4%0.06%	56.2%0.05%	37.5%0.31%	21.2%2.03%	45.2%0.15%	50.7%0.15%	30.4%0.55%	50.7%0.07%	58.5%0.08%	33.3%0.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		33.3%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	21.2%0.18%	24.0%0.10%	28.6%0.06%	16.7%<0.01%	32.7%0.06%	24.1%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	24.5%0.18%	9.3%0.28%	27.3%0.01%	36.0%0.05%	20.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	66.7%0.02%		66.7%0.04%	45.1%0.11%	21.1%2.60%	27.5%1.67%	35.0%1.05%	35.9%0.28%	40.5%0.64%	34.2%0.59%	53.1%0.08%	27.0%2.41%	16.4%4.10%	44.6%0.50%	38.4%0.35%	57.6%0.08%
Carolina Panthers	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%0.04%		50.0%0.02%	14.3%0.62%	20.9%0.41%	19.0%0.23%	31.3%0.07%	33.3%0.14%	24.3%0.11%	33.3%0.02%	20.0%0.61%	11.0%1.10%	23.3%0.10%	30.8%0.08%	38.5%0.03%
Chicago Bears	100.0%<0.01%	54.9%0.11%	50.0%0.02%		23.0%0.70%	31.4%0.16%	37.4%0.10%	32.8%0.06%	46.0%0.06%	38.2%0.28%	55.0%0.02%	31.9%0.66%	15.8%1.17%	52.2%0.11%	36.1%0.15%	68.2%0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	78.8%0.18%	78.9%2.60%	85.7%0.62%	77.0%0.70%		59.1%7.87%	64.5%5.14%	70.0%1.50%	74.0%3.59%	66.7%5.79%	75.3%0.48%	60.2%12.18%	40.4%12.97%	73.1%2.67%	68.9%4.00%	83.4%0.57%
Detroit Lions	76.0%0.10%	72.5%1.67%	79.1%0.41%	68.6%0.16%	40.9%7.87%		57.2%2.20%	60.5%0.95%	63.1%1.52%	57.3%4.14%	73.3%0.38%	50.4%7.40%	32.5%11.90%	63.0%1.67%	61.4%2.61%	80.6%0.35%
Green Bay Packers	71.4%0.06%	65.0%1.05%	81.0%0.23%	62.6%0.10%	35.5%5.14%	42.8%2.20%		57.3%0.50%	57.1%0.85%	50.7%2.43%	63.4%0.19%	43.5%4.82%	27.4%7.91%	56.6%1.05%	53.5%1.53%	71.9%0.22%
Los Angeles Rams	83.3%<0.01%	64.1%0.28%	68.7%0.07%	67.2%0.06%	30.0%1.50%	39.5%0.95%	42.7%0.50%		50.0%0.37%	46.8%0.57%	54.4%0.06%	37.7%1.58%	22.8%2.44%	54.1%0.14%	51.0%0.39%	60.0%0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	67.3%0.06%	59.5%0.64%	66.7%0.14%	54.0%0.06%	26.0%3.59%	36.9%1.52%	42.9%0.85%	50.0%0.37%		45.0%1.64%	63.8%0.14%	37.0%3.26%	22.1%5.53%	48.0%0.73%	45.4%1.03%	62.1%0.14%
New Orleans Saints	75.9%0.06%	65.8%0.59%	75.7%0.11%	61.8%0.28%	33.3%5.79%	42.7%4.14%	49.3%2.43%	53.2%0.57%	55.0%1.64%		59.0%0.21%	43.4%5.45%	27.5%9.12%	54.5%1.13%	53.4%0.88%	72.7%0.26%
New York Giants	0.0%<0.01%	46.9%0.08%	66.7%0.02%	45.0%0.02%	24.7%0.48%	26.7%0.38%	36.6%0.19%	45.6%0.06%	36.2%0.14%	41.0%0.21%		30.2%0.59%	14.7%1.02%	34.7%0.10%	38.4%0.14%	72.7%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	75.5%0.18%	73.0%2.41%	80.0%0.61%	68.1%0.66%	39.8%12.18%	49.6%7.40%	56.5%4.82%	62.3%1.58%	63.0%3.26%	56.6%5.45%	69.8%0.59%		31.5%11.13%	62.6%2.77%	59.5%3.71%	71.6%0.54%
San Francisco 49ers	90.7%0.28%	83.6%4.10%	89.0%1.10%	84.2%1.17%	59.6%12.97%	67.5%11.90%	72.6%7.91%	77.2%2.44%	77.9%5.53%	72.5%9.12%	85.3%1.02%	68.5%11.13%		77.2%4.51%	75.6%6.32%	89.0%1.07%
Seattle Seahawks	72.7%0.01%	55.4%0.50%	76.7%0.10%	47.8%0.11%	26.9%2.67%	37.0%1.67%	43.4%1.05%	45.9%0.14%	52.0%0.73%	45.5%1.13%	65.3%0.10%	37.4%2.77%	22.8%4.51%		46.8%0.76%	65.5%0.12%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	64.0%0.05%	61.6%0.35%	69.2%0.08%	63.9%0.15%	31.1%4.00%	38.6%2.61%	46.5%1.53%	49.0%0.39%	54.6%1.03%	46.6%0.88%	61.6%0.14%	40.5%3.71%	24.4%6.32%	53.2%0.76%		72.7%0.17%
Washington Commanders	80.0%<0.01%	42.4%0.08%	61.5%0.03%	31.8%0.02%	16.6%0.57%	19.4%0.35%	28.1%0.22%	40.0%0.04%	37.9%0.14%	27.3%0.26%	27.3%0.01%	28.4%0.54%	11.0%1.07%	34.5%0.12%	27.3%0.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		53.8%10.31%	67.8%2.77%	72.0%1.57%	81.3%0.30%	78.5%0.80%	77.6%0.50%	72.8%2.67%	59.3%10.62%	73.7%0.76%	76.4%0.74%	67.9%3.02%	85.3%0.25%	78.5%0.34%	72.4%1.17%	82.7%0.39%
Buffalo Bills	46.2%10.31%		63.9%4.34%	66.0%2.41%	72.9%0.34%	75.1%0.97%	78.3%0.65%	69.3%3.25%	55.0%12.80%	73.6%0.87%	80.1%0.83%	63.5%2.63%	80.2%0.19%	76.7%0.25%	69.3%1.71%	82.8%0.46%
Cincinnati Bengals	32.2%2.77%	36.1%4.34%		52.6%0.59%	56.9%0.12%	65.1%0.32%	65.7%0.22%	54.3%1.06%	42.1%4.41%	53.9%0.33%	62.1%0.31%	48.2%1.39%	68.8%0.09%	66.7%0.13%	54.7%0.45%	68.8%0.16%
Cleveland Browns	28.0%1.57%	34.0%2.41%	47.4%0.59%		69.5%0.06%	56.9%0.19%	63.8%0.12%	56.4%0.61%	36.8%2.37%	58.6%0.17%	67.9%0.16%	46.0%0.68%	75.0%0.05%	65.6%0.06%	52.0%0.25%	69.7%0.10%
Denver Broncos	18.7%0.30%	27.1%0.34%	43.1%0.12%	30.5%0.06%		61.8%0.03%	34.8%0.02%	31.4%0.07%	26.0%0.23%	35.3%0.02%	40.0%0.01%	38.5%0.09%	100.0%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%	42.3%0.05%	57.1%0.01%
Houston Texans	21.5%0.80%	24.9%0.97%	34.9%0.32%	43.1%0.19%	38.2%0.03%		70.4%0.03%	38.0%0.14%	29.1%0.88%	44.8%0.06%	74.5%0.06%	37.1%0.28%	88.2%0.02%	42.3%0.03%	49.7%0.15%	62.5%0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	22.4%0.50%	21.7%0.65%	34.3%0.22%	36.2%0.12%	65.2%0.02%	29.6%0.03%		41.8%0.08%	27.3%0.57%	35.1%0.04%	54.8%0.04%	36.1%0.21%	28.6%<0.01%	54.5%0.02%	45.1%0.09%	55.6%<0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	27.2%2.67%	30.7%3.25%	45.7%1.06%	43.6%0.61%	68.6%0.07%	62.0%0.14%	58.2%0.08%		34.7%3.17%	63.5%0.20%	59.0%0.22%	46.2%0.97%	76.1%0.07%	66.7%0.10%	50.5%0.40%	56.6%0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	40.7%10.62%	45.0%12.80%	57.9%4.41%	63.2%2.37%	74.0%0.23%	70.9%0.88%	72.7%0.57%	65.3%3.17%		68.2%0.53%	73.8%0.56%	58.7%3.48%	74.4%0.23%	75.4%0.36%	64.6%1.67%	77.0%0.50%
Las Vegas Raiders	26.3%0.76%	26.4%0.87%	46.1%0.33%	41.4%0.17%	64.7%0.02%	55.2%0.06%	64.9%0.04%	36.5%0.20%	31.8%0.53%		61.0%0.04%	44.2%0.24%	76.0%0.03%	52.0%0.03%	42.9%0.10%	46.4%0.03%
Los Angeles Chargers	23.6%0.74%	19.9%0.83%	37.9%0.31%	32.1%0.16%	60.0%0.01%	25.5%0.06%	45.2%0.04%	41.0%0.22%	26.2%0.56%	39.0%0.04%		34.4%0.26%	56.2%0.02%	52.2%0.02%	37.9%0.13%	56.7%0.03%
Miami Dolphins	32.1%3.02%	36.5%2.63%	51.8%1.39%	54.0%0.68%	61.5%0.09%	62.9%0.28%	63.9%0.21%	53.8%0.97%	41.3%3.48%	55.8%0.24%	65.6%0.26%		77.5%0.04%	72.7%0.08%	52.6%0.53%	72.6%0.15%
New England Patriots	14.7%0.25%	19.8%0.19%	31.2%0.09%	25.0%0.05%	0.0%<0.01%	11.8%0.02%	71.4%<0.01%	23.9%0.07%	25.6%0.23%	24.0%0.03%	43.8%0.02%	22.5%0.04%		33.3%<0.01%	30.3%0.03%	33.3%<0.01%
New York Jets	21.5%0.34%	23.3%0.25%	33.3%0.13%	34.4%0.06%	42.9%0.01%	57.7%0.03%	45.5%0.02%	33.3%0.10%	24.6%0.36%	48.0%0.03%	47.8%0.02%	27.3%0.08%	66.7%<0.01%		41.2%0.05%	38.5%0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	27.6%1.17%	30.7%1.71%	45.3%0.45%	48.0%0.25%	57.7%0.05%	50.3%0.15%	54.9%0.09%	49.5%0.40%	35.4%1.67%	57.1%0.10%	62.1%0.13%	47.4%0.53%	69.7%0.03%	58.8%0.05%		59.8%0.08%
Tennessee Titans	17.3%0.39%	17.2%0.46%	31.2%0.16%	30.3%0.10%	42.9%0.01%	37.5%0.02%	44.4%<0.01%	43.4%0.08%	23.0%0.50%	53.6%0.03%	43.3%0.03%	27.4%0.15%	66.7%<0.01%	61.5%0.01%	40.2%0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		10.5%0.04%	26.9%0.03%	53.3%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	29.4%0.02%		19.4%0.04%	15.9%0.06%	66.7%<0.01%	55.6%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	100.0%<0.01%		66.7%<0.01%	56.5%0.02%	20.7%0.73%	27.4%0.37%	34.1%0.18%	35.4%0.05%	47.3%0.13%	39.1%0.13%	45.0%0.02%	31.6%0.54%	16.9%1.44%	36.5%0.10%	33.8%0.07%	42.9%0.01%
Carolina Panthers	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	17.9%0.12%	20.8%0.07%	16.7%0.03%	22.2%<0.01%	47.8%0.02%	11.1%0.03%	25.0%<0.01%	23.5%0.08%	10.7%0.24%	38.5%0.01%	30.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%
Chicago Bears		43.5%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		24.5%0.19%	30.7%0.07%	37.5%0.04%	35.3%0.02%	42.3%0.03%	39.7%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	27.3%0.14%	16.0%0.36%	31.6%0.02%	29.5%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	89.5%0.04%	79.3%0.73%	82.1%0.12%	75.5%0.19%		57.2%4.34%	66.0%2.42%	69.6%0.73%	71.3%1.39%	66.0%2.58%	84.1%0.13%	58.5%4.52%	42.1%16.70%	69.2%1.23%	70.0%1.68%	76.7%0.12%
Detroit Lions	73.1%0.03%	72.6%0.37%	79.2%0.07%	69.3%0.07%	42.8%4.34%		57.7%0.90%	61.1%0.35%	62.4%0.47%	56.5%1.29%	67.4%0.09%	51.5%3.36%	33.5%8.10%	62.9%0.60%	56.2%0.81%	78.2%0.08%
Green Bay Packers	46.7%0.01%	65.9%0.18%	83.3%0.03%	62.5%0.04%	34.0%2.42%	42.3%0.90%		59.1%0.17%	61.8%0.26%	50.0%0.71%	79.1%0.04%	43.9%1.72%	28.0%4.45%	59.6%0.32%	58.4%0.42%	76.1%0.05%
Los Angeles Rams	0.0%<0.01%	64.6%0.05%	77.8%<0.01%	64.7%0.02%	30.4%0.73%	38.9%0.35%	40.9%0.17%		57.9%0.11%	48.2%0.20%	65.2%0.02%	39.5%0.45%	24.8%0.92%	64.9%0.06%	43.8%0.15%	37.5%<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	100.0%<0.01%	52.7%0.13%	52.2%0.02%	57.7%0.03%	28.7%1.39%	37.6%0.47%	38.2%0.26%	42.1%0.11%		43.9%0.38%	51.4%0.03%	35.5%0.95%	22.9%2.48%	48.6%0.21%	51.2%0.25%	60.0%0.01%
New Orleans Saints	70.6%0.02%	60.9%0.13%	88.9%0.03%	60.3%0.07%	34.0%2.58%	43.5%1.29%	50.0%0.71%	51.8%0.20%	56.1%0.38%		54.3%0.05%	42.0%1.91%	27.7%4.91%	59.2%0.37%	51.2%0.37%	73.8%0.04%
New York Giants		55.0%0.02%	75.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	15.9%0.13%	32.6%0.09%	20.9%0.04%	34.8%0.02%	48.6%0.03%	45.7%0.05%		35.2%0.09%	16.5%0.37%	36.4%0.03%	48.6%0.03%	25.0%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	80.6%0.04%	68.4%0.54%	76.5%0.08%	72.7%0.14%	41.5%4.52%	48.5%3.36%	56.1%1.72%	60.5%0.45%	64.5%0.95%	58.0%1.91%	64.8%0.09%		34.1%12.62%	61.1%0.82%	57.8%1.11%	75.9%0.08%
San Francisco 49ers	84.1%0.06%	83.1%1.44%	89.3%0.24%	84.0%0.36%	57.9%16.70%	66.5%8.10%	72.0%4.45%	75.2%0.92%	77.1%2.48%	72.3%4.91%	83.5%0.37%	65.9%12.62%		75.7%1.70%	74.3%2.96%	90.1%0.32%
Seattle Seahawks	33.3%<0.01%	63.5%0.10%	61.5%0.01%	68.4%0.02%	30.8%1.23%	37.1%0.60%	40.4%0.32%	35.1%0.06%	51.4%0.21%	40.8%0.37%	63.6%0.03%	38.9%0.82%	24.3%1.70%		40.9%0.23%	65.2%0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	44.4%<0.01%	66.2%0.07%	70.0%0.01%	70.5%0.04%	30.0%1.68%	43.8%0.81%	41.6%0.42%	56.2%0.15%	48.8%0.25%	48.8%0.37%	51.4%0.03%	42.2%1.11%	25.7%2.96%	59.1%0.23%		75.0%0.04%
Washington Commanders	0.0%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	23.3%0.12%	21.8%0.08%	23.9%0.05%	62.5%<0.01%	40.0%0.01%	26.2%0.04%	75.0%<0.01%	24.1%0.08%	9.9%0.32%	34.8%0.02%	25.0%0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens	90.9%0.01%	78.1%0.22%	84.6%0.04%	67.6%0.07%	57.4%4.56%	63.7%2.15%	70.3%1.02%	75.3%0.28%	70.4%0.50%	69.1%1.11%	75.5%0.05%	66.4%2.97%	50.1%8.74%	69.1%0.43%	71.9%0.68%	86.1%0.04%
Buffalo Bills	69.2%0.01%	78.2%0.24%	87.5%0.02%	72.4%0.06%	52.7%4.96%	60.3%2.32%	64.3%1.15%	71.2%0.30%	71.5%0.53%	65.5%1.19%	64.4%0.06%	61.5%3.11%	46.5%9.61%	72.8%0.50%	66.6%0.70%	85.0%0.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	100.0%<0.01%	58.0%0.07%	75.0%0.01%	66.7%0.02%	39.8%1.50%	44.5%0.67%	50.2%0.33%	68.7%0.08%	61.4%0.15%	51.3%0.30%	61.1%0.02%	50.2%0.90%	33.7%2.73%	64.9%0.13%	57.7%0.21%	66.7%0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.0%<0.01%	65.9%0.04%	40.0%<0.01%	87.5%<0.01%	36.0%0.73%	44.4%0.35%	51.7%0.18%	59.0%0.04%	58.9%0.09%	45.9%0.18%	71.4%<0.01%	46.2%0.48%	31.0%1.49%	63.6%0.07%	41.8%0.11%	100.0%<0.01%
Denver Broncos		50.0%<0.01%			31.7%0.08%	28.1%0.03%	33.3%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	37.5%0.02%		41.8%0.06%	27.6%0.17%	44.4%<0.01%	55.6%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%
Houston Texans	50.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	31.4%0.24%	37.7%0.11%	36.2%0.06%	31.2%0.02%	52.0%0.03%	43.6%0.06%	100.0%<0.01%	44.2%0.15%	26.7%0.49%	34.4%0.03%	38.1%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		20.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	29.1%0.17%	31.5%0.07%	43.8%0.03%	37.5%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	40.0%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	42.7%0.10%	24.7%0.29%	38.9%0.02%	30.0%0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	50.0%<0.01%	59.1%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%	57.1%0.01%	35.6%0.95%	40.5%0.44%	40.5%0.21%	53.2%0.05%	56.0%0.10%	46.4%0.25%	0.0%0.01%	42.0%0.63%	29.3%1.88%	61.5%0.09%	43.6%0.14%	64.3%0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	68.8%0.02%	70.9%0.21%	61.5%0.03%	64.2%0.05%	46.6%4.49%	53.5%2.10%	59.4%0.98%	60.2%0.24%	68.2%0.47%	60.6%1.15%	78.5%0.07%	55.5%2.73%	39.3%8.50%	63.5%0.44%	59.0%0.62%	69.0%0.03%
Las Vegas Raiders	100.0%<0.01%	66.7%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	31.1%0.22%	34.5%0.12%	40.4%0.05%	57.1%0.01%	59.1%0.02%	53.2%0.06%	0.0%<0.01%	43.9%0.13%	29.2%0.48%	41.4%0.03%	64.9%0.04%
Los Angeles Chargers		27.3%0.01%		20.0%<0.01%	25.3%0.17%	49.4%0.09%	42.4%0.03%	33.3%0.01%	35.0%0.02%	40.0%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	39.3%0.14%	21.4%0.41%	43.8%0.02%	29.6%0.03%	100.0%<0.01%
Miami Dolphins	100.0%<0.01%	73.2%0.06%	83.3%<0.01%	64.7%0.02%	39.2%1.17%	46.5%0.59%	50.8%0.26%	61.5%0.07%	57.5%0.15%	55.6%0.33%	64.3%0.01%	52.2%0.78%	34.6%2.36%	54.4%0.12%	52.7%0.19%	100.0%<0.01%
New England Patriots				0.0%<0.01%	17.3%0.05%	30.8%0.01%	30.4%0.02%	20.0%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	17.6%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	35.0%0.02%	16.2%0.08%	66.7%<0.01%	37.5%<0.01%
New York Jets		50.0%<0.01%			32.0%0.10%	35.3%0.03%	23.5%0.02%	33.3%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	29.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%	34.0%0.05%	28.9%0.15%	33.3%<0.01%	33.3%0.02%	50.0%<0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	50.0%<0.01%	47.8%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%	71.4%<0.01%	34.5%0.54%	39.5%0.26%	45.7%0.12%	52.5%0.04%	60.3%0.06%	49.1%0.11%	37.5%<0.01%	47.3%0.30%	29.3%1.01%	52.0%0.05%	60.6%0.07%	50.0%<0.01%
Tennessee Titans		33.3%<0.01%			34.0%0.10%	28.1%0.06%	60.0%0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%	38.5%0.03%		36.2%0.06%	20.7%0.20%	28.6%<0.01%	44.4%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%
Arizona Cardinals																	9.1%0.01%	30.8%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	31.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			50.0%<0.01%
Atlanta Falcons																	21.9%0.22%	21.8%0.24%	42.0%0.07%	34.1%0.04%	50.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	40.9%0.04%	29.1%0.21%	33.3%0.01%	72.7%0.01%	26.8%0.06%		50.0%<0.01%	52.2%0.02%	66.7%<0.01%
Carolina Panthers																	15.4%0.04%	12.5%0.02%	25.0%0.01%	60.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	38.5%0.03%			16.7%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%
Chicago Bears																	32.4%0.07%	27.6%0.06%	33.3%0.02%	12.5%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	42.9%0.01%	35.8%0.05%	100.0%<0.01%	80.0%<0.01%	35.3%0.02%	100.0%<0.01%		28.6%<0.01%
Dallas Cowboys																	42.6%4.56%	47.3%4.96%	60.2%1.50%	64.0%0.73%	68.3%0.08%	68.6%0.24%	70.9%0.17%	64.4%0.95%	53.4%4.49%	68.9%0.22%	74.7%0.17%	60.8%1.17%	82.7%0.05%	68.0%0.10%	65.5%0.54%	66.0%0.10%
Detroit Lions																	36.3%2.15%	39.7%2.32%	55.5%0.67%	55.6%0.35%	71.9%0.03%	62.3%0.11%	68.5%0.07%	59.5%0.44%	46.5%2.10%	65.5%0.12%	50.6%0.09%	53.5%0.59%	69.2%0.01%	64.7%0.03%	60.5%0.26%	71.9%0.06%
Green Bay Packers																	29.7%1.02%	35.7%1.15%	49.8%0.33%	48.3%0.18%	66.7%0.02%	63.8%0.06%	56.2%0.03%	59.5%0.21%	40.6%0.98%	59.6%0.05%	57.6%0.03%	49.2%0.26%	69.6%0.02%	76.5%0.02%	54.3%0.12%	40.0%0.01%
Los Angeles Rams																	24.7%0.28%	28.8%0.30%	31.3%0.08%	41.0%0.04%	0.0%<0.01%	68.8%0.02%	62.5%<0.01%	46.8%0.05%	39.8%0.24%	42.9%0.01%	66.7%0.01%	38.5%0.07%	80.0%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	47.5%0.04%	66.7%<0.01%
Minnesota Vikings																	29.6%0.50%	28.5%0.53%	38.6%0.15%	41.1%0.09%	66.7%<0.01%	48.0%0.03%	66.7%<0.01%	44.0%0.10%	31.8%0.47%	40.9%0.02%	65.0%0.02%	42.5%0.15%	75.0%<0.01%	33.3%<0.01%	39.7%0.06%	75.0%<0.01%
New Orleans Saints																	30.9%1.11%	34.5%1.19%	48.7%0.30%	54.1%0.18%	62.5%0.02%	56.4%0.06%	60.0%0.03%	53.6%0.25%	39.4%1.15%	46.8%0.06%	60.0%0.04%	44.4%0.33%	82.4%0.02%	70.8%0.02%	50.9%0.11%	61.5%0.03%
New York Giants																	24.5%0.05%	35.6%0.06%	38.9%0.02%	28.6%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%0.01%	21.5%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	35.7%0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%	62.5%<0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles																	33.6%2.97%	38.5%3.11%	49.8%0.90%	53.8%0.48%	58.2%0.06%	55.8%0.15%	57.3%0.10%	58.0%0.63%	44.5%2.73%	56.1%0.13%	60.7%0.14%	47.8%0.78%	65.0%0.02%	66.0%0.05%	52.7%0.30%	63.8%0.06%
San Francisco 49ers																	49.9%8.74%	53.5%9.61%	66.3%2.73%	69.0%1.49%	72.4%0.17%	73.3%0.49%	75.3%0.29%	70.7%1.88%	60.7%8.50%	70.8%0.48%	78.6%0.41%	65.4%2.36%	83.8%0.08%	71.1%0.15%	70.7%1.01%	79.3%0.20%
Seattle Seahawks																	30.9%0.43%	27.2%0.50%	35.1%0.13%	36.4%0.07%	55.6%<0.01%	65.6%0.03%	61.1%0.02%	38.5%0.09%	36.5%0.44%	58.6%0.03%	56.2%0.02%	45.6%0.12%	33.3%<0.01%	66.7%<0.01%	48.0%0.05%	71.4%<0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																	28.1%0.68%	33.4%0.70%	42.3%0.21%	58.2%0.11%	44.4%0.02%	61.9%0.04%	70.0%0.02%	56.4%0.14%	41.0%0.62%	35.1%0.04%	70.4%0.03%	47.3%0.19%	62.5%<0.01%	66.7%0.02%	39.4%0.07%	55.6%0.02%
Washington Commanders																	13.9%0.04%	15.0%0.04%	33.3%0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%		35.7%0.01%	31.0%0.03%		0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%		50.0%<0.01%	50.0%<0.01%	100.0%<0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	74.65%	49.28%	26.66%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens	100.00%	74.91%	47.68%	26.38%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	74.19%	49.55%	24.13%	12.71%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	70.27%	46.54%	21.43%	10.68%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Kansas City Chiefs	62.88%	29.06%	12.52%	6.00%	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	66.52%	28.35%	11.06%	4.64%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	52.18%	19.06%	7.27%	3.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins	37.12%	13.27%	5.02%	2.19%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cleveland Browns	53.95%	16.33%	5.35%	2.02%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	47.82%	14.25%	4.45%	1.51%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	29.73%	7.88%	3.55%	1.39%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	33.48%	9.28%	2.96%	1.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	25.81%	6.25%	2.56%	0.96%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Texans	46.05%	10.63%	2.75%	0.86%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills						74.2%100.00%
Cleveland Browns			54.0%100.00%
Houston Texans		46.0%100.00%
Kansas City Chiefs					62.9%100.00%
Miami Dolphins				37.1%100.00%
Pittsburgh Steelers	25.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys			70.3%100.00%
Detroit Lions				66.5%100.00%
Green Bay Packers	29.7%100.00%
Los Angeles Rams		33.5%100.00%
Philadelphia Eagles						52.2%100.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers					47.8%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens			74.3%25.15%	80.3%21.40%		70.5%27.65%	75.8%25.81%
Buffalo Bills			71.5%14.95%	78.9%12.70%	61.9%46.55%
Cleveland Browns	25.7%25.15%	28.5%14.95%			34.8%8.80%	50.6%5.06%
Houston Texans	19.7%21.40%	21.1%12.70%			25.5%7.53%	41.0%4.42%
Kansas City Chiefs		38.1%46.55%	65.2%8.80%	74.5%7.53%
Miami Dolphins	29.5%27.65%		49.4%5.06%	59.0%4.42%
Pittsburgh Steelers	24.2%25.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys		64.9%46.69%			65.4%12.32%		72.4%11.25%
Detroit Lions	35.1%46.69%				56.9%10.38%		64.3%9.45%
Green Bay Packers						26.5%29.73%
Los Angeles Rams					35.6%5.18%	22.8%23.58%	43.7%4.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	34.6%12.32%	43.1%10.38%		64.4%5.18%		28.8%24.29%
San Francisco 49ers			73.5%29.73%	77.2%23.58%	71.2%24.29%		77.2%22.40%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27.6%11.25%	35.7%9.45%		56.3%4.72%		22.8%22.40%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		58.7%36.83%	73.1%7.27%	79.9%4.72%	64.2%22.25%	70.2%3.85%
Buffalo Bills	41.3%36.83%		71.1%4.01%	77.3%2.60%		66.3%6.10%
Cleveland Browns	26.9%7.27%	28.9%4.01%			34.2%2.44%	49.8%1.27%	57.2%1.34%
Houston Texans	20.1%4.72%	22.7%2.60%			26.0%1.62%	43.3%0.79%	48.9%0.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	35.8%22.25%		65.8%2.44%	74.0%1.62%			63.9%2.75%
Miami Dolphins	29.8%3.85%	33.7%6.10%	50.2%1.27%	56.7%0.79%			58.1%1.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers			42.8%1.34%	51.1%0.90%	36.1%2.75%	41.9%1.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys				71.2%3.73%	63.9%4.46%	38.7%35.04%	71.5%3.30%
Detroit Lions			58.1%3.19%		57.6%2.52%	31.9%20.82%	61.5%1.81%
Green Bay Packers		41.9%3.19%		49.6%1.03%	43.0%2.07%		51.4%1.59%
Los Angeles Rams	28.8%3.73%		50.4%1.03%		36.9%0.95%	25.3%2.88%	42.0%0.69%
Philadelphia Eagles	36.1%4.46%	42.4%2.52%	57.0%2.07%	63.1%0.95%		31.1%9.05%
San Francisco 49ers	61.3%35.04%	68.1%20.82%		74.7%2.88%	68.9%9.05%		76.2%6.86%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	28.5%3.30%	38.5%1.81%	48.6%1.59%	58.0%0.69%		23.8%6.86%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	54.3%10.20%	62.1%5.33%	65.0%1.65%	69.7%1.42%	63.2%3.47%	50.2%23.50%	70.5%2.10%
Buffalo Bills	52.2%5.14%	59.1%2.64%	64.8%0.88%	68.2%0.71%	61.2%1.74%	47.2%11.92%	66.4%1.09%
Cleveland Browns	35.3%1.20%	42.7%0.58%	48.0%0.18%	53.8%0.16%	45.9%0.37%	33.8%2.63%	52.4%0.23%
Houston Texans	28.6%0.58%	38.2%0.28%	41.9%0.10%	42.5%0.08%	37.1%0.20%	27.1%1.36%	44.9%0.14%
Kansas City Chiefs	48.3%2.67%	55.9%1.40%	54.2%0.45%	65.6%0.36%	53.1%0.92%	42.2%6.18%	64.3%0.55%
Miami Dolphins	41.0%1.08%	51.0%0.55%	54.5%0.17%	58.2%0.15%	51.7%0.38%	39.0%2.48%	58.6%0.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.7%0.57%	46.5%0.27%	42.6%0.11%	59.0%0.08%	45.7%0.20%	31.1%1.21%	52.4%0.10%
Dallas Cowboys								45.7%10.20%	47.8%5.14%	64.7%1.20%	71.4%0.58%	51.7%2.67%	59.0%1.08%	63.3%0.57%
Detroit Lions								37.9%5.33%	40.9%2.64%	57.3%0.58%	61.8%0.28%	44.1%1.40%	49.0%0.55%	53.5%0.27%
Green Bay Packers								35.0%1.65%	35.2%0.88%	52.0%0.18%	58.1%0.10%	45.8%0.45%	45.5%0.17%	57.4%0.11%
Los Angeles Rams								30.3%1.42%	31.8%0.71%	46.2%0.16%	57.5%0.08%	34.4%0.36%	41.8%0.15%	41.0%0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles								36.8%3.47%	38.8%1.74%	54.1%0.37%	62.9%0.20%	46.9%0.92%	48.3%0.38%	54.3%0.20%
San Francisco 49ers								49.8%23.50%	52.8%11.92%	66.2%2.63%	72.9%1.36%	57.8%6.18%	61.0%2.48%	68.9%1.21%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers								29.5%2.10%	33.6%1.09%	47.6%0.23%	55.1%0.14%	35.7%0.55%	41.4%0.23%	47.6%0.10%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

San Francisco 49ers 26.66% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

29.27%

Win Prob

73.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

43.59%

Win Prob

61.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

43.93%

Win Prob

49.82%

Baltimore Ravens 26.38% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

26.10%

Win Prob

75.77%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

45.33%

Win Prob

58.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

44.70%

Win Prob

50.18%

Buffalo Bills 12.71% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

74.19%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

58.20%

Win Prob

61.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

63.08%

Win Prob

41.32%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

44.23%

Win Prob

47.16%

Dallas Cowboys 10.68% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.27%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

65.16%

Win Prob

64.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

63.27%

Win Prob

38.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

43.67%

Win Prob

45.72%

Kansas City Chiefs 6.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.88%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

60.96%

Win Prob

38.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

63.59%

Win Prob

35.80%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.47%

Win Prob

42.22%

Detroit Lions 4.64% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.52%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

57.75%

Win Prob

35.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.99%

Win Prob

31.86%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

43.49%

Win Prob

37.91%

Philadelphia Eagles 3.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.18%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

36.65%

Win Prob

28.75%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

38.63%

Win Prob

31.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

42.56%

Win Prob

36.75%

Miami Dolphins 2.19% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.12%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

61.51%

Win Prob

29.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

40.95%

Win Prob

33.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

44.07%

Win Prob

39.03%

Cleveland Browns 2.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.95%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

39.51%

Win Prob

25.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

36.49%

Win Prob

26.85%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

44.04%

Win Prob

33.79%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.51% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.82%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

35.90%

Win Prob

22.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

36.77%

Win Prob

23.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

40.98%

Win Prob

29.45%

Green Bay Packers 1.39% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.73%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

37.56%

Win Prob

41.86%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

41.59%

Win Prob

35.01%

Los Angeles Rams 1.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.48%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

57.90%

Win Prob

22.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

36.33%

Win Prob

28.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

43.37%

Win Prob

30.34%

Pittsburgh Steelers 0.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.81%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.23%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

38.91%

Win Prob

36.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

39.25%

Win Prob

31.13%

Houston Texans 0.86% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.05%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

39.69%

Win Prob

19.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

34.52%

Win Prob

20.10%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.06%

Win Prob

27.09%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2023-09-10	@ Washington Commanders	L 16-20	1424.55	1499.55	33.72%	66.07%	-6.95	0-1
2023-09-17	New York Giants	L 28-31	1417.60	1462.29	49.45%	50.32%	-8.83	0-2
2023-09-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-16	1408.77	1609.59	28.50%	71.31%	+25.44	1-2
2023-10-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-35	1434.21	1644.68	18.93%	80.92%	-8.51	1-3
2023-10-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-34	1425.70	1541.42	39.40%	60.38%	-15.19	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-26	1410.51	1455.71	37.65%	62.14%	-16.00	1-5
2023-10-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-20	1394.51	1516.80	27.94%	71.88%	-9.11	1-6
2023-10-29	Baltimore Ravens	L 24-31	1385.40	1583.68	28.80%	71.01%	-7.85	1-7
2023-11-05	@ Cleveland Browns	L 0-27	1377.55	1507.39	27.07%	72.75%	-14.50	1-8
2023-11-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 25-23	1363.05	1435.63	45.45%	54.32%	+7.91	2-8
2023-11-19	@ Houston Texans	L 16-21	1370.96	1460.88	31.83%	67.97%	-7.33	2-9
2023-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-37	1363.63	1433.17	45.89%	53.89%	-22.68	2-10
2023-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-10	1340.95	1527.79	21.10%	78.74%	+30.33	3-10
2023-12-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 29-45	1371.28	1708.83	15.37%	84.50%	-6.34	3-11
2023-12-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-27	1364.94	1418.80	36.49%	63.30%	-12.47	3-12
2023-12-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-31	1352.47	1615.62	14.71%	85.16%	+17.52	4-12
2024-01-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-21	1369.99	1488.20	39.06%	60.72%	-4.02	4-13
2023-09-10	Carolina Panthers	W 24-10	1461.75	1491.84	51.55%	48.22%	+18.59	1-0
2023-09-17	Green Bay Packers	W 25-24	1480.34	1530.99	48.60%	51.18%	+5.27	2-0
2023-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-20	1485.61	1510.83	40.38%	59.40%	-15.57	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-23	1470.04	1494.71	40.46%	59.32%	-16.68	2-2
2023-10-08	Houston Texans	W 21-19	1453.36	1438.41	57.96%	41.81%	+6.09	3-2
2023-10-15	Washington Commanders	L 16-24	1459.45	1448.86	57.35%	42.43%	-16.71	3-3
2023-10-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1442.74	1489.04	37.50%	62.28%	+11.11	4-3
2023-10-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 23-28	1453.85	1445.74	45.07%	54.70%	-10.38	4-4
2023-11-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-31	1443.47	1526.81	43.92%	55.85%	-7.84	4-5
2023-11-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 23-25	1435.63	1363.05	54.32%	45.45%	-7.92	4-6
2023-11-26	New Orleans Saints	W 24-15	1427.71	1499.12	45.62%	54.15%	+16.74	5-6
2023-12-03	@ New York Jets	W 13-8	1444.45	1417.12	47.82%	51.95%	+11.97	6-6
2023-12-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 25-29	1456.42	1463.85	54.80%	44.98%	-11.29	6-7
2023-12-17	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-9	1445.13	1342.68	58.54%	41.24%	-8.53	6-8
2023-12-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 29-10	1436.60	1461.56	52.29%	47.48%	+21.33	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-37	1457.93	1431.27	47.73%	52.05%	-22.00	7-9
2024-01-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-48	1435.93	1507.70	34.14%	65.66%	-19.59	7-10
2023-09-10	Houston Texans	W 25-9	1518.99	1404.05	71.02%	28.79%	+11.87	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1530.86	1578.89	37.27%	62.52%	+11.15	2-0
2023-09-24	Indianapolis Colts	L 19-22	1542.01	1414.86	72.44%	27.38%	-12.91	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 28-3	1529.10	1530.82	43.68%	56.10%	+28.89	3-1
2023-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1557.99	1491.12	53.51%	46.27%	-14.58	3-2
2023-10-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-16	1543.41	1458.48	56.08%	43.70%	+12.73	4-2
2023-10-22	Detroit Lions	W 38-6	1556.14	1579.44	52.53%	47.24%	+27.54	5-2
2023-10-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-24	1583.68	1385.40	71.01%	28.80%	+7.86	6-2
2023-11-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-3	1591.54	1534.67	63.70%	36.09%	+21.69	7-2
2023-11-12	Cleveland Browns	L 31-33	1613.23	1521.89	68.15%	31.65%	-9.93	7-3
2023-11-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-20	1603.30	1589.41	57.82%	41.96%	+16.19	8-3
2023-11-26	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-10	1619.49	1512.19	59.22%	40.56%	+13.22	9-3
2023-12-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-31	1632.71	1478.09	75.47%	24.35%	+6.14	10-3
2023-12-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-7	1638.85	1543.75	57.51%	42.26%	+17.43	11-3
2023-12-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 33-19	1656.28	1715.17	35.82%	63.97%	+24.65	12-3
2023-12-31	Miami Dolphins	W 56-19	1680.93	1596.38	67.29%	32.51%	+20.38	13-3
2024-01-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1701.31	1509.60	79.20%	20.64%	-7.19	13-4
2023-09-11	@ New York Jets	L 16-22	1597.67	1454.98	64.03%	35.76%	-16.15	0-1
2023-09-17	Las Vegas Raiders	W 38-10	1581.52	1482.91	69.05%	30.76%	+16.77	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Washington Commanders	W 37-3	1598.29	1512.93	56.14%	43.64%	+26.23	2-1
2023-10-01	Miami Dolphins	W 48-20	1624.52	1533.67	68.08%	31.72%	+17.30	3-1
2023-10-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-25	1641.82	1511.39	72.81%	27.00%	-16.77	3-2
2023-10-15	New York Giants	W 14-9	1625.05	1423.97	80.07%	19.77%	+4.56	4-2
2023-10-22	@ New England Patriots	L 25-29	1629.61	1430.88	71.07%	28.74%	-14.63	4-3
2023-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-18	1614.98	1477.93	73.56%	26.26%	+6.63	5-3
2023-11-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 18-24	1621.61	1590.68	48.34%	51.43%	-12.20	5-4
2023-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 22-24	1609.41	1422.80	78.71%	21.13%	-11.46	5-5
2023-11-19	New York Jets	W 32-6	1597.95	1449.41	74.82%	25.00%	+13.14	6-5
2023-11-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 34-37	1611.09	1662.00	36.88%	62.90%	-6.59	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1604.50	1620.56	41.66%	58.12%	+10.37	7-6
2023-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-10	1614.87	1658.79	49.57%	50.21%	+23.71	8-6
2023-12-23	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-22	1638.58	1448.45	70.04%	29.77%	+4.34	9-6
2023-12-31	New England Patriots	W 27-21	1642.92	1408.08	82.99%	16.88%	+4.26	10-6
2024-01-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 21-14	1647.18	1576.00	54.12%	45.65%	+12.44	11-6
2023-09-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-24	1491.84	1461.75	48.22%	51.55%	-18.59	0-1
2023-09-18	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1473.25	1504.53	51.38%	48.39%	-9.17	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 27-37	1464.08	1488.08	40.55%	59.23%	-13.22	0-3
2023-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-21	1450.86	1473.93	52.56%	47.21%	-15.31	0-4
2023-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-42	1435.55	1548.13	29.07%	70.74%	-12.72	0-5
2023-10-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-42	1422.83	1529.62	29.76%	70.04%	-14.06	0-6
2023-10-29	Houston Texans	W 15-13	1408.77	1447.57	50.30%	49.47%	+7.21	1-6
2023-11-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-27	1415.98	1396.09	58.66%	41.12%	-22.60	1-7
2023-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1393.38	1383.74	45.29%	54.48%	-8.09	1-8
2023-11-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-33	1385.29	1606.28	26.20%	73.62%	-12.95	1-9
2023-11-26	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-17	1372.34	1418.86	37.47%	62.31%	-10.22	1-10
2023-12-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 18-21	1362.12	1458.31	31.05%	68.75%	-5.54	1-11
2023-12-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-28	1356.58	1472.00	28.74%	71.07%	-13.90	1-12
2023-12-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 9-7	1342.68	1445.13	41.24%	58.54%	+8.53	2-12
2023-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 30-33	1351.21	1490.70	36.19%	63.60%	-6.46	2-13
2023-12-31	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-26	1344.75	1505.41	23.72%	76.11%	-12.46	2-14
2024-01-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-9	1332.29	1500.06	32.52%	67.28%	-10.06	2-15
2023-09-10	Green Bay Packers	L 20-38	1405.01	1513.32	40.42%	59.36%	-17.67	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-27	1387.34	1487.87	30.52%	69.28%	-9.95	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-41	1377.39	1621.28	16.16%	83.71%	-9.27	0-3
2023-10-01	Denver Broncos	L 28-31	1368.12	1395.06	52.01%	47.77%	-9.28	0-4
2023-10-05	@ Washington Commanders	W 40-20	1358.84	1482.00	27.84%	71.98%	+33.14	1-4
2023-10-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-19	1391.98	1479.64	43.31%	56.47%	-10.93	1-5
2023-10-22	Las Vegas Raiders	W 30-12	1381.05	1463.95	43.99%	55.79%	+24.38	2-5
2023-10-29	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-30	1405.43	1491.68	32.29%	67.51%	-13.72	2-6
2023-11-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-24	1391.71	1502.98	29.23%	70.58%	-7.97	2-7
2023-11-09	Carolina Panthers	W 16-13	1383.74	1393.38	54.48%	45.29%	+8.08	3-7
2023-11-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 26-31	1391.82	1571.44	21.80%	78.04%	-5.03	3-8
2023-11-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 12-10	1386.79	1540.32	24.47%	75.36%	+10.98	4-8
2023-12-10	Detroit Lions	W 28-13	1397.77	1568.31	32.17%	67.63%	+26.97	5-8
2023-12-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-20	1424.74	1503.33	33.26%	66.54%	-5.94	5-9
2023-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-16	1418.80	1364.94	63.30%	36.49%	+12.47	6-9
2023-12-31	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-17	1431.27	1457.93	52.05%	47.73%	+22.00	7-9
2024-01-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-17	1453.27	1526.14	33.99%	65.80%	-9.92	7-10
2023-09-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-24	1607.26	1493.65	60.09%	39.69%	-28.37	0-1
2023-09-17	Baltimore Ravens	L 24-27	1578.89	1530.86	62.52%	37.27%	-11.15	0-2
2023-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-16	1567.74	1458.06	70.39%	29.42%	+5.25	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Tennessee Titans	L 3-27	1572.99	1441.15	62.58%	37.21%	-31.57	1-3
2023-10-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-20	1541.42	1425.70	60.38%	39.40%	+15.20	2-3
2023-10-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1556.62	1524.94	60.29%	39.49%	+8.14	3-3
2023-10-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-17	1564.76	1649.20	32.52%	67.28%	+25.92	4-3
2023-11-05	Buffalo Bills	W 24-18	1590.68	1621.61	51.43%	48.34%	+12.20	5-3
2023-11-12	Houston Texans	L 27-30	1602.88	1447.40	75.57%	24.26%	-13.47	5-4
2023-11-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-34	1589.41	1603.30	41.96%	57.82%	-16.19	5-5
2023-11-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-16	1573.22	1511.56	64.33%	35.46%	-16.22	5-6
2023-12-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-31	1557.00	1564.80	42.82%	56.96%	+10.16	6-6
2023-12-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-14	1567.16	1453.52	70.86%	28.95%	+13.34	7-6
2023-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-24	1580.50	1537.01	61.90%	37.88%	+6.77	8-6
2023-12-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 11-34	1587.27	1463.64	61.47%	38.32%	-30.36	8-7
2023-12-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-25	1556.91	1600.32	37.89%	61.89%	-11.05	8-8
2024-01-07	Cleveland Browns	W 31-14	1545.86	1540.49	56.62%	43.16%	+6.11	9-8
2023-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1493.65	1607.26	39.69%	60.09%	+28.36	1-0
2023-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 22-26	1522.01	1500.31	47.01%	52.76%	-9.69	1-1
2023-09-24	Tennessee Titans	W 27-3	1512.32	1459.65	63.14%	36.65%	+18.50	2-1
2023-10-01	Baltimore Ravens	L 3-28	1530.82	1529.10	56.10%	43.68%	-28.89	2-2
2023-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 19-17	1501.93	1674.77	31.89%	67.91%	+9.89	3-2
2023-10-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 39-38	1511.82	1415.79	57.64%	42.13%	+4.34	4-2
2023-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-24	1516.16	1525.90	42.54%	57.23%	-8.77	4-3
2023-11-05	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-0	1507.39	1377.55	72.75%	27.07%	+14.50	5-3
2023-11-12	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 33-31	1521.89	1613.23	31.65%	68.15%	+9.93	6-3
2023-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1531.82	1519.08	57.65%	42.12%	+7.52	7-3
2023-11-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 12-29	1539.34	1440.43	58.05%	41.73%	-24.66	7-4
2023-12-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 19-36	1514.68	1455.85	52.35%	47.42%	-22.24	7-5
2023-12-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-27	1492.44	1554.64	46.94%	52.84%	+10.89	8-5
2023-12-17	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1503.33	1424.74	66.54%	33.26%	+5.94	9-5
2023-12-24	@ Houston Texans	W 36-22	1509.27	1453.42	51.93%	47.85%	+18.45	10-5
2023-12-28	New York Jets	W 37-20	1527.72	1423.26	69.76%	30.05%	+12.77	11-5
2024-01-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-31	1540.49	1545.86	43.16%	56.62%	-6.12	11-6
2023-09-10	@ New York Giants	W 40-0	1567.59	1491.59	54.81%	44.97%	+29.31	1-0
2023-09-17	New York Jets	W 30-10	1596.90	1471.13	72.28%	27.53%	+12.69	2-0
2023-09-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 16-28	1609.59	1408.77	71.31%	28.50%	-25.43	2-1
2023-10-01	New England Patriots	W 38-3	1584.16	1491.18	68.35%	31.45%	+19.18	3-1
2023-10-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-42	1603.34	1653.18	37.03%	62.76%	-21.59	3-2
2023-10-16	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-17	1581.75	1509.40	54.29%	45.49%	+8.12	4-2
2023-10-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 43-20	1589.87	1457.81	73.00%	26.82%	+13.25	5-2
2023-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-28	1603.12	1642.00	38.51%	61.28%	-8.87	5-3
2023-11-12	New York Giants	W 49-17	1594.25	1402.46	79.21%	20.63%	+12.03	6-3
2023-11-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 33-10	1606.28	1385.29	73.62%	26.20%	+12.95	7-3
2023-11-23	Washington Commanders	W 45-10	1619.23	1424.04	79.53%	20.32%	+12.38	8-3
2023-11-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 41-35	1631.61	1498.02	73.17%	26.65%	+6.73	9-3
2023-12-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-13	1638.34	1641.44	55.42%	44.36%	+20.45	10-3
2023-12-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1658.79	1614.87	50.21%	49.57%	-23.71	10-4
2023-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-22	1635.08	1589.02	50.52%	49.26%	-7.36	10-5
2023-12-30	Detroit Lions	W 20-19	1627.72	1572.78	63.44%	36.35%	+3.75	11-5
2024-01-07	@ Washington Commanders	W 38-10	1631.47	1369.43	77.94%	21.90%	+11.94	12-5
2023-09-10	Las Vegas Raiders	L 16-17	1429.48	1477.87	48.92%	50.85%	-5.04	0-1
2023-09-17	Washington Commanders	L 33-35	1424.44	1506.50	44.10%	55.67%	-6.43	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-70	1418.01	1510.72	31.48%	68.32%	-22.95	0-3
2023-10-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1395.06	1368.12	47.77%	52.01%	+9.28	1-3
2023-10-08	New York Jets	L 21-31	1404.34	1440.80	50.64%	49.14%	-16.49	1-4
2023-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 8-19	1387.85	1645.60	15.11%	84.77%	-5.17	1-5
2023-10-22	Green Bay Packers	W 19-17	1382.68	1497.41	39.54%	60.25%	+8.78	2-5
2023-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-9	1391.46	1660.37	21.23%	78.61%	+31.34	3-5
2023-11-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-22	1422.80	1609.41	21.13%	78.71%	+11.46	4-5
2023-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-20	1434.26	1546.49	39.88%	59.90%	+6.17	5-5
2023-11-26	Cleveland Browns	W 29-12	1440.43	1539.34	41.73%	58.05%	+24.65	6-5
2023-12-03	@ Houston Texans	L 17-22	1465.08	1460.52	44.57%	55.21%	-10.27	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-7	1454.81	1509.64	36.36%	63.43%	+26.93	7-6
2023-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-42	1481.74	1541.34	35.73%	64.06%	-18.41	7-7
2023-12-24	New England Patriots	L 23-26	1463.33	1396.49	65.02%	34.78%	-11.60	7-8
2023-12-31	Los Angeles Chargers	W 16-9	1451.73	1444.12	56.93%	42.84%	+11.69	8-8
2024-01-07	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 14-27	1463.42	1475.52	42.21%	57.57%	-15.69	8-9
2023-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-20	1519.76	1614.77	31.20%	68.60%	+7.06	1-0
2023-09-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 31-37	1526.82	1472.08	63.42%	36.37%	-15.99	1-1
2023-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-6	1510.83	1485.61	59.40%	40.38%	+15.57	2-1
2023-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-20	1526.40	1530.07	43.40%	56.38%	+21.73	3-1
2023-10-08	Carolina Panthers	W 42-24	1548.13	1435.55	70.74%	29.07%	+12.71	4-1
2023-10-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-6	1560.84	1507.64	51.54%	48.23%	+18.60	5-1
2023-10-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-38	1579.44	1556.14	47.24%	52.53%	-27.54	5-2
2023-10-30	Las Vegas Raiders	W 26-14	1551.90	1439.56	70.71%	29.10%	+10.39	6-2
2023-11-12	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 41-38	1562.29	1530.31	48.49%	51.28%	+9.15	7-2
2023-11-19	Chicago Bears	W 31-26	1571.44	1391.82	78.04%	21.80%	+5.03	8-2
2023-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 22-29	1576.47	1485.98	68.04%	31.76%	-18.54	8-3
2023-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-28	1557.93	1482.38	54.75%	45.03%	+10.38	9-3
2023-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-28	1568.31	1397.77	67.63%	32.17%	-26.97	9-4
2023-12-16	Denver Broncos	W 42-17	1541.34	1481.74	64.06%	35.73%	+18.41	10-4
2023-12-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-24	1559.75	1530.25	48.14%	51.64%	+13.03	11-4
2023-12-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-20	1572.78	1627.72	36.35%	63.44%	-3.74	11-5
2024-01-07	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-20	1569.04	1488.23	66.82%	32.98%	+10.75	12-5
2023-09-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-20	1513.32	1405.01	59.36%	40.42%	+17.67	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-25	1530.99	1480.34	51.18%	48.60%	-5.27	1-1
2023-09-24	New Orleans Saints	W 18-17	1525.72	1513.70	57.55%	42.23%	+4.35	2-1
2023-09-28	Detroit Lions	L 20-34	1530.07	1526.40	56.38%	43.40%	-21.73	2-2
2023-10-09	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 13-17	1508.34	1444.42	53.08%	46.69%	-10.93	2-3
2023-10-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-19	1497.41	1382.68	60.25%	39.54%	-8.78	2-4
2023-10-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1488.63	1506.25	53.34%	46.43%	-20.56	2-5
2023-11-05	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-3	1468.07	1444.55	59.16%	40.62%	+17.26	3-5
2023-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-23	1485.33	1510.76	40.35%	59.43%	-8.32	3-6
2023-11-19	Los Angeles Chargers	W 23-20	1477.01	1521.15	49.53%	50.24%	+8.97	4-6
2023-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-22	1485.98	1576.47	31.76%	68.04%	+18.53	5-6
2023-12-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-19	1504.51	1638.89	36.87%	62.92%	+18.33	6-6
2023-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 22-24	1522.84	1420.93	58.47%	41.31%	-8.52	6-7
2023-12-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-34	1514.32	1475.14	61.32%	38.47%	-23.62	6-8
2023-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 33-30	1490.70	1351.21	63.60%	36.19%	+6.46	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-10	1497.16	1517.21	41.10%	58.68%	+28.98	8-8
2024-01-07	Chicago Bears	W 17-9	1526.14	1453.27	65.80%	33.99%	+9.91	9-8
2023-09-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 9-25	1404.05	1518.99	28.79%	71.02%	-11.87	0-1
2023-09-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-31	1392.18	1395.96	55.32%	44.46%	-18.90	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-17	1373.28	1529.54	24.18%	75.65%	+34.83	1-2
2023-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-6	1408.11	1521.42	39.73%	60.05%	+30.30	2-2
2023-10-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 19-21	1438.41	1453.36	41.81%	57.96%	-6.10	2-3
2023-10-15	New Orleans Saints	W 20-13	1432.31	1516.54	43.80%	55.98%	+15.26	3-3
2023-10-29	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-15	1447.57	1408.77	49.47%	50.30%	-7.21	3-4
2023-11-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 39-37	1440.36	1471.30	51.43%	48.34%	+7.04	4-4
2023-11-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-27	1447.40	1602.88	24.26%	75.57%	+13.48	5-4
2023-11-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 21-16	1460.88	1370.96	67.97%	31.83%	+7.34	6-4
2023-11-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-24	1468.22	1557.10	43.14%	56.64%	-7.70	6-5
2023-12-03	Denver Broncos	W 22-17	1460.52	1465.08	55.21%	44.57%	+10.27	7-5
2023-12-10	@ New York Jets	L 6-30	1470.79	1405.15	53.33%	46.45%	-26.92	7-6
2023-12-17	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-16	1443.87	1427.35	46.27%	53.50%	+9.55	8-6
2023-12-24	Cleveland Browns	L 22-36	1453.42	1509.27	47.85%	51.93%	-18.45	8-7
2023-12-31	Tennessee Titans	W 26-3	1434.97	1409.83	59.39%	40.40%	+19.97	9-7
2024-01-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-19	1454.94	1449.20	44.73%	55.04%	+11.34	10-7
2023-09-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-31	1408.52	1530.56	38.54%	61.25%	-12.56	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Houston Texans	W 31-20	1395.96	1392.18	44.46%	55.32%	+18.90	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 22-19	1414.86	1542.01	27.38%	72.44%	+12.92	2-1
2023-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-29	1427.78	1452.81	52.28%	47.49%	-13.20	2-2
2023-10-08	Tennessee Titans	W 23-16	1414.58	1472.72	47.52%	52.25%	+14.25	3-2
2023-10-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-37	1428.83	1528.15	30.67%	69.13%	-13.04	3-3
2023-10-22	Cleveland Browns	L 38-39	1415.79	1511.82	42.13%	57.64%	-4.34	3-4
2023-10-29	New Orleans Saints	L 27-38	1411.45	1487.62	44.94%	54.83%	-15.36	3-5
2023-11-05	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-13	1396.09	1415.98	41.12%	58.66%	+22.60	4-5
2023-11-12	@ New England Patriots	W 10-6	1418.69	1423.31	43.27%	56.51%	+11.65	5-5
2023-11-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1430.34	1471.91	49.90%	49.87%	+13.59	6-5
2023-12-03	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-28	1443.93	1429.08	46.03%	53.74%	+9.59	7-5
2023-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-34	1453.52	1567.16	28.95%	70.86%	-13.35	7-6
2023-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1440.17	1485.03	49.43%	50.34%	+21.39	8-6
2023-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-29	1461.56	1436.60	47.48%	52.29%	-21.33	8-7
2023-12-31	Las Vegas Raiders	W 23-20	1440.23	1484.49	49.52%	50.26%	+8.97	9-7
2024-01-06	Houston Texans	L 19-23	1449.20	1454.94	55.04%	44.73%	-11.34	9-8
2023-09-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-21	1530.56	1408.52	61.25%	38.54%	+12.56	1-0
2023-09-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-17	1543.12	1607.70	46.60%	53.18%	-13.58	1-1
2023-09-24	Houston Texans	L 17-37	1529.54	1373.28	75.65%	24.18%	-34.83	1-2
2023-10-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1494.71	1470.04	59.32%	40.46%	+16.68	2-2
2023-10-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-20	1511.39	1641.82	27.00%	72.81%	+16.76	3-2
2023-10-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 37-20	1528.15	1428.83	69.13%	30.67%	+13.04	4-2
2023-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-24	1541.19	1501.29	49.63%	50.14%	+13.66	5-2
2023-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1554.85	1519.60	48.96%	50.81%	+16.56	6-2
2023-11-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-34	1571.41	1623.28	48.42%	51.35%	-27.78	6-3
2023-11-19	Tennessee Titans	W 34-14	1543.63	1432.34	70.58%	29.23%	+13.47	7-3
2023-11-26	@ Houston Texans	W 24-21	1557.10	1468.22	56.64%	43.14%	+7.70	8-3
2023-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-34	1564.80	1557.00	56.96%	42.82%	-10.16	8-4
2023-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 27-31	1554.64	1492.44	52.84%	46.94%	-10.89	8-5
2023-12-17	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-23	1543.75	1638.85	42.26%	57.51%	-17.42	8-6
2023-12-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 12-30	1526.33	1498.77	47.86%	51.92%	-20.92	8-7
2023-12-31	Carolina Panthers	W 26-0	1505.41	1344.75	76.11%	23.72%	+12.47	9-7
2024-01-07	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-28	1517.88	1389.86	62.06%	37.72%	-18.08	9-8
2023-09-07	Detroit Lions	L 20-21	1614.77	1519.76	68.60%	31.20%	-7.07	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-9	1607.70	1543.12	53.18%	46.60%	+13.58	1-1
2023-09-24	Chicago Bears	W 41-10	1621.28	1377.39	83.71%	16.16%	+9.27	2-1
2023-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1630.55	1446.24	69.33%	30.47%	+5.44	3-1
2023-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-20	1635.99	1489.25	64.56%	35.23%	+9.61	4-1
2023-10-12	Denver Broncos	W 19-8	1645.60	1387.85	84.77%	15.11%	+5.16	5-1
2023-10-22	Los Angeles Chargers	W 31-17	1650.76	1501.29	74.92%	24.90%	+9.61	6-1
2023-10-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-24	1660.37	1391.46	78.61%	21.23%	-31.34	6-2
2023-11-05	Miami Dolphins	W 21-14	1629.03	1543.28	67.44%	32.35%	+8.82	7-2
2023-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-21	1637.85	1650.87	54.00%	45.77%	-11.13	7-3
2023-11-26	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 31-17	1626.72	1451.05	68.27%	31.53%	+12.17	8-3
2023-12-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-27	1638.89	1504.51	62.92%	36.87%	-18.33	8-4
2023-12-10	Buffalo Bills	L 17-20	1620.56	1604.50	58.12%	41.66%	-10.37	8-5
2023-12-17	@ New England Patriots	W 27-17	1610.19	1405.63	71.75%	28.06%	+9.15	9-5
2023-12-25	Las Vegas Raiders	L 14-20	1619.34	1465.48	75.39%	24.43%	-19.02	9-6
2023-12-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 25-17	1600.32	1556.91	61.89%	37.89%	+11.05	10-6
2024-01-07	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 13-12	1611.37	1432.43	68.67%	31.13%	+1.07	11-6
2023-09-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1477.87	1429.48	50.85%	48.92%	+5.04	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-38	1482.91	1581.52	30.76%	69.05%	-16.78	1-1
2023-09-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-23	1466.13	1510.00	49.57%	50.20%	-11.42	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-24	1454.71	1499.11	37.76%	62.03%	-10.29	1-3
2023-10-09	Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1444.42	1508.34	46.69%	53.08%	+10.93	2-3
2023-10-15	New England Patriots	W 21-17	1455.35	1439.48	58.09%	41.68%	+8.60	3-3
2023-10-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 12-30	1463.95	1381.05	55.79%	43.99%	-24.39	3-4
2023-10-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-26	1439.56	1551.90	29.10%	70.71%	-10.39	3-5
2023-11-05	New York Giants	W 30-6	1429.17	1424.28	56.55%	43.23%	+21.83	4-5
2023-11-12	New York Jets	W 16-12	1451.00	1458.69	54.76%	45.01%	+9.27	5-5
2023-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-20	1460.27	1534.45	33.83%	65.97%	-9.22	5-6
2023-11-26	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1451.05	1626.72	31.53%	68.27%	-12.16	5-7
2023-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-3	1438.89	1529.35	42.92%	56.86%	-7.66	5-8
2023-12-14	Los Angeles Chargers	W 63-21	1431.23	1482.70	48.48%	51.30%	+34.25	6-8
2023-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-14	1465.48	1619.34	24.43%	75.39%	+19.01	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-23	1484.49	1440.23	50.26%	49.52%	-8.97	7-9
2024-01-07	Denver Broncos	W 27-14	1475.52	1463.42	57.57%	42.21%	+15.69	8-9
2023-09-10	Miami Dolphins	L 34-36	1505.19	1487.05	58.41%	41.37%	-8.51	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1496.68	1450.64	50.51%	49.26%	-9.01	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-24	1487.67	1485.37	44.25%	55.53%	+11.44	1-2
2023-10-01	Las Vegas Raiders	W 24-17	1499.11	1454.71	62.03%	37.76%	+10.29	2-2
2023-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1509.40	1581.75	45.49%	54.29%	-8.11	2-3
2023-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1501.29	1650.76	24.90%	74.92%	-9.61	2-4
2023-10-29	Chicago Bears	W 30-13	1491.68	1405.43	67.51%	32.29%	+13.73	3-4
2023-11-06	@ New York Jets	W 27-6	1505.41	1483.59	47.03%	52.74%	+24.90	4-4
2023-11-12	Detroit Lions	L 38-41	1530.31	1562.29	51.28%	48.49%	-9.16	4-5
2023-11-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1521.15	1477.01	50.24%	49.53%	-8.96	4-6
2023-11-26	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-20	1512.19	1619.49	40.56%	59.22%	-13.22	4-7
2023-12-03	@ New England Patriots	W 6-0	1498.97	1403.87	57.51%	42.26%	+10.67	5-7
2023-12-10	Denver Broncos	L 7-24	1509.64	1454.81	63.43%	36.36%	-26.94	5-8
2023-12-14	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 21-63	1482.70	1431.23	51.30%	48.48%	-34.25	5-9
2023-12-23	Buffalo Bills	L 22-24	1448.45	1638.58	29.77%	70.04%	-4.33	5-10
2023-12-31	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-16	1444.12	1451.73	42.84%	56.93%	-11.69	5-11
2024-01-07	Kansas City Chiefs	L 12-13	1432.43	1611.37	31.13%	68.67%	-1.07	5-12
2023-09-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-13	1440.09	1499.26	35.78%	64.01%	+27.18	1-0
2023-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-30	1467.27	1625.22	33.77%	66.02%	-9.21	1-1
2023-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-19	1458.06	1567.74	29.42%	70.39%	-5.25	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-23	1452.81	1427.78	47.49%	52.28%	+13.19	2-2
2023-10-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-23	1466.00	1627.78	33.28%	66.51%	-10.29	2-3
2023-10-15	Arizona Cardinals	W 26-9	1455.71	1410.51	62.14%	37.65%	+16.00	3-3
2023-10-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1471.71	1505.70	50.99%	48.78%	-13.90	3-4
2023-10-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-43	1457.81	1589.87	26.82%	73.00%	-13.26	3-5
2023-11-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-20	1444.55	1468.07	40.62%	59.16%	-17.26	3-6
2023-11-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-16	1427.29	1519.35	42.69%	57.09%	+5.88	4-6
2023-11-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 37-14	1433.17	1363.63	53.89%	45.89%	+22.68	5-6
2023-12-03	Cleveland Browns	W 36-19	1455.85	1514.68	47.42%	52.35%	+22.24	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 31-37	1478.09	1632.71	24.35%	75.47%	-6.15	6-7
2023-12-17	Washington Commanders	W 28-20	1471.94	1392.09	66.70%	33.10%	+9.65	7-7
2023-12-21	New Orleans Saints	W 30-22	1481.59	1501.70	52.99%	46.79%	+13.64	8-7
2023-12-31	@ New York Giants	W 26-25	1495.23	1407.74	56.44%	43.34%	+4.46	9-7
2024-01-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-20	1499.69	1697.84	20.04%	79.80%	+2.74	10-7
2023-09-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 36-34	1487.05	1505.19	41.37%	58.41%	+8.50	1-0
2023-09-17	@ New England Patriots	W 24-17	1495.55	1494.16	44.12%	55.66%	+15.17	2-0
2023-09-24	Denver Broncos	W 70-20	1510.72	1418.01	68.32%	31.48%	+22.95	3-0
2023-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-48	1533.67	1624.52	31.72%	68.08%	-17.30	3-1
2023-10-08	New York Giants	W 31-16	1516.37	1437.22	66.61%	33.19%	+13.25	4-1
2023-10-15	Carolina Panthers	W 42-21	1529.62	1422.83	70.04%	29.76%	+14.06	5-1
2023-10-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-31	1543.68	1620.70	33.46%	66.33%	-12.90	5-2
2023-10-29	New England Patriots	W 31-17	1530.78	1445.52	67.38%	32.42%	+12.50	6-2
2023-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-21	1543.28	1629.03	32.35%	67.44%	-8.83	6-3
2023-11-19	Las Vegas Raiders	W 20-13	1534.45	1460.27	65.97%	33.83%	+9.23	7-3
2023-11-24	@ New York Jets	W 34-13	1543.68	1436.27	59.23%	40.55%	+19.15	8-3
2023-12-03	@ Washington Commanders	W 45-15	1562.83	1411.65	65.14%	34.65%	+19.56	9-3
2023-12-11	Tennessee Titans	L 27-28	1582.39	1419.49	76.34%	23.49%	-7.86	9-4
2023-12-17	New York Jets	W 30-0	1574.53	1432.06	74.16%	25.66%	+14.49	10-4
2023-12-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 22-20	1589.02	1635.08	49.26%	50.52%	+7.36	11-4
2023-12-31	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 19-56	1596.38	1680.93	32.51%	67.29%	-20.38	11-5
2024-01-07	Buffalo Bills	L 14-21	1576.00	1647.18	45.65%	54.12%	-12.45	11-6
2023-09-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1503.50	1477.25	59.54%	40.24%	-10.63	0-1
2023-09-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-34	1492.87	1600.07	29.72%	70.09%	-7.50	0-2
2023-09-24	Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-28	1485.37	1487.67	55.53%	44.25%	-11.44	0-3
2023-10-01	@ Carolina Panthers	W 21-13	1473.93	1450.86	47.21%	52.56%	+15.32	1-3
2023-10-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1489.25	1635.99	35.23%	64.56%	-9.61	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1479.64	1391.98	56.47%	43.31%	+10.93	2-4
2023-10-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 22-17	1490.57	1664.88	31.70%	68.10%	+15.68	3-4
2023-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1506.25	1488.63	46.43%	53.34%	+20.56	4-4
2023-11-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-28	1526.81	1443.47	55.85%	43.92%	+7.84	5-4
2023-11-12	New Orleans Saints	W 27-19	1534.65	1510.95	59.19%	40.59%	+11.84	6-4
2023-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-21	1546.49	1434.26	59.90%	39.88%	-6.17	6-5
2023-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 10-12	1540.32	1386.79	75.36%	24.47%	-10.97	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 3-0	1529.35	1438.89	56.86%	42.92%	+7.66	7-6
2023-12-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1537.01	1580.50	37.88%	61.90%	-6.76	7-7
2023-12-24	Detroit Lions	L 24-30	1530.25	1559.75	51.64%	48.14%	-13.04	7-8
2023-12-31	Green Bay Packers	L 10-33	1517.21	1497.16	58.68%	41.10%	-28.98	7-9
2024-01-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-30	1488.23	1569.04	32.98%	66.82%	-10.75	7-10
2023-09-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-25	1504.20	1590.03	43.57%	56.21%	-10.04	0-1
2023-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1494.16	1495.55	55.66%	44.12%	-15.17	0-2
2023-09-24	@ New York Jets	W 15-10	1478.99	1458.43	46.85%	52.92%	+12.19	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-38	1491.18	1584.16	31.45%	68.35%	-19.18	1-3
2023-10-08	New Orleans Saints	L 0-34	1472.00	1484.02	54.14%	45.63%	-32.52	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 17-21	1439.48	1455.35	41.68%	58.09%	-8.60	1-5
2023-10-22	Buffalo Bills	W 29-25	1430.88	1629.61	28.74%	71.07%	+14.64	2-5
2023-10-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-31	1445.52	1530.78	32.42%	67.38%	-12.51	2-6
2023-11-05	Washington Commanders	L 17-20	1433.01	1443.40	54.38%	45.40%	-9.70	2-7
2023-11-12	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1423.31	1418.69	56.51%	43.27%	-11.64	2-8
2023-11-26	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1411.67	1413.12	43.71%	56.06%	-7.80	2-9
2023-12-03	Los Angeles Chargers	L 0-6	1403.87	1498.97	42.26%	57.51%	-10.67	2-10
2023-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-18	1393.20	1497.46	30.07%	69.74%	+12.43	3-10
2023-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-27	1405.63	1610.19	28.06%	71.75%	-9.14	3-11
2023-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-23	1396.49	1463.33	34.78%	65.02%	+11.59	4-11
2023-12-31	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-27	1408.08	1642.92	16.88%	82.99%	-4.26	4-12
2024-01-07	New York Jets	L 3-17	1403.82	1410.49	54.91%	44.87%	-21.16	4-13
2023-09-10	Tennessee Titans	W 16-15	1500.67	1454.51	62.27%	37.52%	+3.86	1-0
2023-09-18	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-17	1504.53	1473.25	48.39%	51.38%	+9.17	2-0
2023-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-18	1513.70	1525.72	42.23%	57.55%	-4.35	2-1
2023-10-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-26	1509.35	1482.31	59.65%	40.13%	-25.33	2-2
2023-10-08	@ New England Patriots	W 34-0	1484.02	1472.00	45.63%	54.14%	+32.52	3-2
2023-10-15	@ Houston Texans	L 13-20	1516.54	1432.31	55.98%	43.80%	-15.25	3-3
2023-10-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-31	1501.29	1541.19	50.14%	49.63%	-13.67	3-4
2023-10-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-27	1487.62	1411.45	54.83%	44.94%	+15.36	4-4
2023-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1502.98	1391.71	70.58%	29.23%	+7.97	5-4
2023-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-27	1510.95	1534.65	40.59%	59.19%	-11.83	5-5
2023-11-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 15-24	1499.12	1427.71	54.15%	45.62%	-16.74	5-6
2023-12-03	Detroit Lions	L 28-33	1482.38	1557.93	45.03%	54.75%	-10.38	5-7
2023-12-10	Carolina Panthers	W 28-6	1472.00	1356.58	71.07%	28.74%	+13.90	6-7
2023-12-17	New York Giants	W 24-6	1485.90	1429.44	63.65%	36.14%	+15.80	7-7
2023-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 22-30	1501.70	1481.59	46.79%	52.99%	-13.63	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-13	1488.07	1519.69	39.50%	60.28%	+19.63	8-8
2024-01-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 48-17	1507.70	1435.93	65.66%	34.14%	+19.59	9-8
2023-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-40	1491.59	1567.59	44.97%	54.81%	-29.30	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-28	1462.29	1417.60	50.32%	49.45%	+8.82	1-1
2023-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 12-30	1471.11	1634.43	23.44%	76.39%	-10.25	1-2
2023-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-24	1460.86	1501.30	50.07%	49.71%	-23.64	1-3
2023-10-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-31	1437.22	1516.37	33.19%	66.61%	-13.25	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1423.97	1625.05	19.77%	80.07%	-4.56	1-5
2023-10-22	Washington Commanders	W 14-7	1419.41	1465.57	49.24%	50.53%	+13.78	2-5
2023-10-29	New York Jets	L 10-13	1433.19	1474.68	49.91%	49.86%	-8.91	2-6
2023-11-05	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 6-30	1424.28	1429.17	43.23%	56.55%	-21.82	2-7
2023-11-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-49	1402.46	1594.25	20.63%	79.21%	-12.03	2-8
2023-11-19	@ Washington Commanders	W 31-19	1390.43	1446.73	36.16%	63.63%	+22.69	3-8
2023-11-26	New England Patriots	W 10-7	1413.12	1411.67	56.06%	43.71%	+7.81	4-8
2023-12-11	Green Bay Packers	W 24-22	1420.93	1522.84	41.31%	58.47%	+8.51	5-8
2023-12-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-24	1429.44	1485.90	36.14%	63.65%	-15.80	5-9
2023-12-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-33	1413.64	1609.72	20.23%	79.61%	-5.90	5-10
2023-12-31	Los Angeles Rams	L 25-26	1407.74	1495.23	43.34%	56.44%	-4.47	5-11
2024-01-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1403.27	1598.09	29.21%	70.60%	+29.98	6-11
2023-09-11	Buffalo Bills	W 22-16	1454.98	1597.67	35.76%	64.03%	+16.15	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-30	1471.13	1596.90	27.53%	72.28%	-12.70	1-1
2023-09-24	New England Patriots	L 10-15	1458.43	1478.99	52.92%	46.85%	-12.19	1-2
2023-10-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1446.24	1630.55	30.47%	69.33%	-5.44	1-3
2023-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-21	1440.80	1404.34	49.14%	50.64%	+16.50	2-3
2023-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1457.30	1638.08	30.90%	68.90%	+17.38	3-3
2023-10-29	@ New York Giants	W 13-10	1474.68	1433.19	49.86%	49.91%	+8.91	4-3
2023-11-06	Los Angeles Chargers	L 6-27	1483.59	1505.41	52.74%	47.03%	-24.90	4-4
2023-11-12	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 12-16	1458.69	1451.00	45.01%	54.76%	-9.28	4-5
2023-11-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-32	1449.41	1597.95	25.00%	74.82%	-13.14	4-6
2023-11-24	Miami Dolphins	L 13-34	1436.27	1543.68	40.55%	59.23%	-19.15	4-7
2023-12-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 8-13	1417.12	1444.45	51.95%	47.82%	-11.97	4-8
2023-12-10	Houston Texans	W 30-6	1405.15	1470.79	46.45%	53.33%	+26.91	5-8
2023-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-30	1432.06	1574.53	25.66%	74.16%	-14.48	5-9
2023-12-24	Washington Commanders	W 30-28	1417.58	1382.44	60.77%	39.02%	+5.68	6-9
2023-12-28	@ Cleveland Browns	L 20-37	1423.26	1527.72	30.05%	69.76%	-12.77	6-10
2024-01-07	@ New England Patriots	W 17-3	1410.49	1403.82	44.87%	54.91%	+21.17	7-10
2023-09-10	@ New England Patriots	W 25-20	1590.03	1504.20	56.21%	43.57%	+10.04	1-0
2023-09-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-28	1600.07	1492.87	70.09%	29.72%	+7.50	2-0
2023-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-11	1607.57	1497.82	59.56%	40.22%	+15.51	3-0
2023-10-01	Washington Commanders	W 34-31	1623.08	1486.71	73.48%	26.34%	+4.70	4-0
2023-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-14	1627.78	1466.00	66.51%	33.28%	+10.30	5-0
2023-10-15	@ New York Jets	L 14-20	1638.08	1457.30	68.90%	30.90%	-17.38	5-1
2023-10-22	Miami Dolphins	W 31-17	1620.70	1543.68	66.33%	33.46%	+12.90	6-1
2023-10-29	@ Washington Commanders	W 38-31	1633.60	1451.80	69.03%	30.78%	+8.40	7-1
2023-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-23	1642.00	1603.12	61.28%	38.51%	+8.87	8-1
2023-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1650.87	1637.85	45.77%	54.00%	+11.13	9-1
2023-11-26	Buffalo Bills	W 37-34	1662.00	1611.09	62.90%	36.88%	+6.58	10-1
2023-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-42	1668.58	1674.94	54.95%	44.82%	-27.14	10-2
2023-12-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-33	1641.44	1638.34	44.36%	55.42%	-20.45	10-3
2023-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1620.99	1484.55	63.20%	36.59%	-11.27	10-4
2023-12-25	New York Giants	W 33-25	1609.72	1413.64	79.61%	20.23%	+5.90	11-4
2023-12-31	Arizona Cardinals	L 31-35	1615.62	1352.47	85.16%	14.71%	-17.53	11-5
2024-01-07	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1598.09	1403.27	70.60%	29.21%	-29.97	11-6
2023-09-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-30	1522.17	1603.36	44.23%	55.55%	-21.86	0-1
2023-09-18	Cleveland Browns	W 26-22	1500.31	1522.01	52.76%	47.01%	+9.69	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 23-18	1510.00	1466.13	50.20%	49.57%	+11.42	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Houston Texans	L 6-30	1521.42	1408.11	60.05%	39.73%	-30.30	2-2
2023-10-08	Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1491.12	1557.99	46.27%	53.51%	+14.58	3-2
2023-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1505.70	1471.71	48.78%	50.99%	+13.90	4-2
2023-10-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-20	1519.60	1554.85	50.81%	48.96%	-16.55	4-3
2023-11-02	Tennessee Titans	W 20-16	1503.05	1456.13	62.37%	37.42%	+7.71	5-3
2023-11-12	Green Bay Packers	W 23-19	1510.76	1485.33	59.43%	40.35%	+8.32	6-3
2023-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-13	1519.08	1531.82	42.12%	57.65%	-7.52	6-4
2023-11-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-10	1511.56	1573.22	35.46%	64.33%	+16.23	7-4
2023-12-03	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-24	1527.79	1340.95	78.74%	21.10%	-30.33	7-5
2023-12-07	New England Patriots	L 18-21	1497.46	1393.20	69.74%	30.07%	-12.43	7-6
2023-12-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-30	1485.03	1440.17	50.34%	49.43%	-21.39	7-7
2023-12-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-11	1463.64	1587.27	38.32%	61.47%	+30.36	8-7
2023-12-31	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-23	1494.00	1503.80	42.54%	57.24%	+15.60	9-7
2024-01-06	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1509.60	1701.31	20.64%	79.20%	+7.19	10-7
2023-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-7	1603.36	1522.17	55.55%	44.23%	+21.86	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-23	1625.22	1467.27	66.02%	33.77%	+9.21	2-0
2023-09-21	New York Giants	W 30-12	1634.43	1471.11	76.39%	23.44%	+10.25	3-0
2023-10-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 35-16	1644.68	1434.21	80.92%	18.93%	+8.50	4-0
2023-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-10	1653.18	1603.34	62.76%	37.03%	+21.59	5-0
2023-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-19	1674.77	1501.93	67.91%	31.89%	-9.89	5-1
2023-10-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-22	1664.88	1490.57	68.10%	31.70%	-15.68	5-2
2023-10-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-31	1649.20	1564.76	67.28%	32.52%	-25.92	5-3
2023-11-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-3	1623.28	1571.41	51.35%	48.42%	+27.78	6-3
2023-11-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1651.06	1480.34	77.15%	22.69%	+8.43	7-3
2023-11-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-13	1659.49	1513.47	64.47%	35.32%	+15.45	8-3
2023-12-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-19	1674.94	1668.58	44.82%	54.95%	+27.15	9-3
2023-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-16	1702.09	1491.30	80.95%	18.90%	+6.74	10-3
2023-12-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 45-29	1708.83	1371.28	84.50%	15.37%	+6.34	11-3
2023-12-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 19-33	1715.17	1656.28	63.97%	35.82%	-24.65	11-4
2023-12-31	@ Washington Commanders	W 27-10	1690.52	1376.75	82.63%	17.24%	+7.32	12-4
2024-01-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-21	1697.84	1499.69	79.80%	20.04%	-2.74	12-5
2023-09-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-30	1499.26	1440.09	64.01%	35.78%	-27.18	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-31	1472.08	1526.82	36.37%	63.42%	+16.00	1-1
2023-09-24	Carolina Panthers	W 37-27	1488.08	1464.08	59.23%	40.55%	+13.22	2-1
2023-10-02	@ New York Giants	W 24-3	1501.30	1460.86	49.71%	50.07%	+23.64	3-1
2023-10-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-17	1524.94	1556.62	39.49%	60.29%	-8.14	3-2
2023-10-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-10	1516.80	1394.51	71.88%	27.94%	+9.10	4-2
2023-10-29	Cleveland Browns	W 24-20	1525.90	1516.16	57.23%	42.54%	+8.77	5-2
2023-11-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-37	1534.67	1591.54	36.09%	63.70%	-21.69	5-3
2023-11-12	Washington Commanders	W 29-26	1512.98	1453.11	64.10%	35.69%	+6.37	6-3
2023-11-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-17	1519.35	1427.29	57.09%	42.69%	-5.88	6-4
2023-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-31	1513.47	1659.49	35.32%	64.47%	-15.45	6-5
2023-11-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 35-41	1498.02	1631.61	26.65%	73.17%	-6.72	6-6
2023-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-28	1491.30	1702.09	18.90%	80.95%	-6.75	6-7
2023-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1484.55	1620.99	36.59%	63.20%	+11.27	7-7
2023-12-24	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-17	1495.82	1417.81	55.10%	44.68%	+7.98	8-7
2023-12-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-30	1503.80	1494.00	57.24%	42.54%	-15.60	8-8
2024-01-07	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 21-20	1488.20	1369.99	60.72%	39.06%	+4.02	9-8
2023-09-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1477.25	1503.50	40.24%	59.54%	+10.62	1-0
2023-09-17	Chicago Bears	W 27-17	1487.87	1387.34	69.28%	30.52%	+9.95	2-0
2023-09-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 11-25	1497.82	1607.57	40.22%	59.56%	-15.51	2-1
2023-10-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-9	1482.31	1509.35	40.13%	59.65%	+25.33	3-1
2023-10-15	Detroit Lions	L 6-20	1507.64	1560.84	48.23%	51.54%	-18.60	3-2
2023-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-16	1489.04	1442.74	62.28%	37.50%	-11.11	3-3
2023-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 18-24	1477.93	1614.98	26.26%	73.56%	-6.63	3-4
2023-11-05	@ Houston Texans	L 37-39	1471.30	1440.36	48.34%	51.43%	-7.04	3-5
2023-11-12	Tennessee Titans	W 20-6	1464.26	1448.41	58.09%	41.69%	+16.08	4-5
2023-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-27	1480.34	1651.06	22.69%	77.15%	-8.43	4-6
2023-11-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-27	1471.91	1430.34	49.87%	49.90%	-13.60	4-7
2023-12-03	Carolina Panthers	W 21-18	1458.31	1362.12	68.75%	31.05%	+5.54	5-7
2023-12-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 29-25	1463.85	1456.42	44.98%	54.80%	+11.29	6-7
2023-12-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-20	1475.14	1514.32	38.47%	61.32%	+23.63	7-7
2023-12-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-12	1498.77	1526.33	51.92%	47.86%	+20.92	8-7
2023-12-31	New Orleans Saints	L 13-23	1519.69	1488.07	60.28%	39.50%	-19.63	8-8
2024-01-07	@ Carolina Panthers	W 9-0	1500.06	1332.29	67.28%	32.52%	+10.06	9-8
2023-09-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 15-16	1454.51	1500.67	37.52%	62.27%	-3.87	0-1
2023-09-17	Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-24	1450.64	1496.68	49.26%	50.51%	+9.01	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-27	1459.65	1512.32	36.65%	63.14%	-18.50	1-2
2023-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-3	1441.15	1572.99	37.21%	62.58%	+31.57	2-2
2023-10-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-23	1472.72	1414.58	52.25%	47.52%	-14.24	2-3
2023-10-15	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-24	1458.48	1543.41	43.70%	56.08%	-12.74	2-4
2023-10-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-23	1445.74	1453.85	54.70%	45.07%	+10.39	3-4
2023-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-20	1456.13	1503.05	37.42%	62.37%	-7.72	3-5
2023-11-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-20	1448.41	1464.26	41.69%	58.09%	-16.07	3-6
2023-11-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-34	1432.34	1543.63	29.23%	70.58%	-13.48	3-7
2023-11-26	Carolina Panthers	W 17-10	1418.86	1372.34	62.31%	37.47%	+10.22	4-7
2023-12-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-31	1429.08	1443.93	53.74%	46.03%	-9.59	4-8
2023-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 28-27	1419.49	1582.39	23.49%	76.34%	+7.86	5-8
2023-12-17	Houston Texans	L 16-19	1427.35	1443.87	53.50%	46.27%	-9.54	5-9
2023-12-24	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1417.81	1495.82	44.68%	55.10%	-7.98	5-10
2023-12-31	@ Houston Texans	L 3-26	1409.83	1434.97	40.40%	59.39%	-19.97	5-11
2024-01-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-20	1389.86	1517.88	37.72%	62.06%	+18.08	6-11
2023-09-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-16	1499.55	1424.55	66.07%	33.72%	+6.95	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 35-33	1506.50	1424.44	55.67%	44.10%	+6.43	2-0
2023-09-24	Buffalo Bills	L 3-37	1512.93	1598.29	43.64%	56.14%	-26.22	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-34	1486.71	1623.08	26.34%	73.48%	-4.71	2-2
2023-10-05	Chicago Bears	L 20-40	1482.00	1358.84	71.98%	27.84%	-33.14	2-3
2023-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-16	1448.86	1459.45	42.43%	57.35%	+16.71	3-3
2023-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 7-14	1465.57	1419.41	50.53%	49.24%	-13.77	3-4
2023-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-38	1451.80	1633.60	30.78%	69.03%	-8.40	3-5
2023-11-05	@ New England Patriots	W 20-17	1443.40	1433.01	45.40%	54.38%	+9.71	4-5
2023-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 26-29	1453.11	1512.98	35.69%	64.10%	-6.38	4-6
2023-11-19	New York Giants	L 19-31	1446.73	1390.43	63.63%	36.16%	-22.69	4-7
2023-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-45	1424.04	1619.23	20.32%	79.53%	-12.39	4-8
2023-12-03	Miami Dolphins	L 15-45	1411.65	1562.83	34.65%	65.14%	-19.56	4-9
2023-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-28	1392.09	1471.94	33.10%	66.70%	-9.65	4-10
2023-12-24	@ New York Jets	L 28-30	1382.44	1417.58	39.02%	60.77%	-5.69	4-11
2023-12-31	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-27	1376.75	1690.52	17.24%	82.63%	-7.32	4-12
2024-01-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1369.43	1631.47	21.90%	77.94%	-11.94	4-13

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2024-01-20	Houston Texans	W 34-10	1694.12	1497.07	79.81%	20.19%	+10.17	1-0
2024-01-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1704.29	1640.10	64.78%	35.22%	-17.62	1-1
2024-01-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-17	1659.62	1516.79	74.31%	25.69%	+9.88	1-0
2024-01-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1669.50	1629.13	61.59%	38.41%	-10.96	1-1
2024-01-13	@ Houston Texans	L 14-45	1534.37	1466.28	53.79%	46.21%	-30.79	0-1
2024-01-14	Green Bay Packers	L 32-48	1643.41	1536.05	70.22%	29.78%	-28.88	0-1
2024-01-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-23	1579.79	1502.43	66.49%	33.51%	+3.44	1-0
2024-01-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1583.23	1535.93	62.53%	37.47%	+10.89	2-0
2024-01-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-34	1594.12	1699.93	29.96%	70.04%	-5.33	2-1
2024-01-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 48-32	1536.05	1643.41	29.78%	70.22%	+28.88	1-0
2024-01-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1564.93	1695.10	27.11%	72.89%	-4.83	1-1
2024-01-13	Cleveland Browns	W 45-14	1466.28	1534.37	46.21%	53.79%	+30.79	1-0
2024-01-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-34	1497.07	1694.12	20.19%	79.81%	-10.17	1-1
2024-01-13	Miami Dolphins	W 26-7	1612.44	1563.55	62.75%	37.25%	+16.69	1-0
2024-01-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1629.13	1669.50	38.41%	61.59%	+10.97	2-0
2024-01-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1640.10	1704.29	35.22%	64.78%	+17.62	3-0
2024-02-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 25-22	1657.72	1705.26	49.16%	50.84%	+9.05	4-0
2024-01-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-24	1502.43	1579.79	33.51%	66.49%	-3.44	0-1
2024-01-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-26	1563.55	1612.44	37.25%	62.75%	-16.69	0-1
2024-01-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-32	1568.12	1510.12	52.35%	47.65%	-25.81	0-1
2024-01-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-31	1516.79	1659.62	25.69%	74.31%	-9.88	0-1
2024-01-20	Green Bay Packers	W 24-21	1695.10	1564.93	72.89%	27.11%	+4.83	1-0
2024-01-28	Detroit Lions	W 34-31	1699.93	1594.12	70.04%	29.96%	+5.33	2-0
2024-02-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-25	1705.26	1657.72	50.84%	49.16%	-9.05	2-1
2024-01-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 32-9	1510.12	1568.12	47.65%	52.35%	+25.81	1-0
2024-01-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-31	1535.93	1583.23	37.47%	62.53%	-10.90	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-12-31	14.71%	Arizona Cardinals	1352.47	35	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1615.62	31
2	2024-01-07	20.04%	Los Angeles Rams	1499.69	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1697.84	20
3	2024-01-06	20.64%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1509.60	17	@ Baltimore Ravens	1701.31	10
4	2023-12-03	21.10%	Arizona Cardinals	1340.95	24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1527.79	10
5	2023-11-13	21.13%	Denver Broncos	1422.80	24	@ Buffalo Bills	1609.41	22
6	2023-10-29	21.23%	@ Denver Broncos	1391.46	24	Kansas City Chiefs	1660.37	9
7	2023-12-11	23.49%	Tennessee Titans	1419.49	28	@ Miami Dolphins	1582.39	27
8	2023-09-24	24.18%	Houston Texans	1373.28	37	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1529.54	17
9	2023-11-12	24.26%	Houston Texans	1447.40	30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1602.88	27
10	2023-12-25	24.43%	Las Vegas Raiders	1465.48	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1619.34	14
11	2023-11-27	24.47%	Chicago Bears	1386.79	12	@ Minnesota Vikings	1540.32	10
12	2023-10-08	27.00%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1511.39	25	@ Buffalo Bills	1641.82	20
13	2023-09-24	27.38%	Indianapolis Colts	1414.86	22	@ Baltimore Ravens	1542.01	19
14	2023-10-05	27.84%	Chicago Bears	1358.84	40	@ Washington Commanders	1482.00	20
15	2023-09-24	28.50%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1408.77	28	Dallas Cowboys	1609.59	16
16	2023-10-22	28.74%	@ New England Patriots	1430.88	29	Buffalo Bills	1629.61	25
17	2024-01-07	29.21%	@ New York Giants	1403.27	27	Philadelphia Eagles	1598.09	10
18	2024-01-14 *	29.78%	Green Bay Packers	1536.05	48	@ Dallas Cowboys	1643.41	32
19	2023-12-07	30.07%	New England Patriots	1393.20	21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1497.46	18
20	2023-10-15	30.90%	@ New York Jets	1457.30	20	Philadelphia Eagles	1638.08	14
21	2023-09-07	31.20%	Detroit Lions	1519.76	21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1614.77	20
22	2023-11-12	31.65%	Cleveland Browns	1521.89	33	@ Baltimore Ravens	1613.23	31
23	2023-10-23	31.70%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1490.57	22	San Francisco 49ers	1664.88	17
24	2023-11-23	31.76%	Green Bay Packers	1485.98	29	@ Detroit Lions	1576.47	22
25	2023-10-15	31.89%	@ Cleveland Browns	1501.93	19	San Francisco 49ers	1674.77	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2023-09-24	34.83	Houston Texans	37	1373.28	24.18%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	17	1529.54	75.65%
2	2023-12-14	34.25	@ Las Vegas Raiders	63	1431.23	48.48%	Los Angeles Chargers	21	1482.70	51.30%
3	2023-10-05	33.14	Chicago Bears	40	1358.84	27.84%	@ Washington Commanders	20	1482.00	71.98%
4	2023-10-08	32.52	New Orleans Saints	34	1484.02	45.63%	@ New England Patriots	0	1472.00	54.14%
5	2023-10-01	31.57	@ Tennessee Titans	27	1441.15	37.21%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1572.99	62.58%
6	2023-10-29	31.34	@ Denver Broncos	24	1391.46	21.23%	Kansas City Chiefs	9	1660.37	78.61%
7	2024-01-13 *	30.79	@ Houston Texans	45	1466.28	46.21%	Cleveland Browns	14	1534.37	53.79%
8	2023-12-23	30.36	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1463.64	38.32%	Cincinnati Bengals	11	1587.27	61.47%
9	2023-12-03	30.33	Arizona Cardinals	24	1340.95	21.10%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1527.79	78.74%
10	2023-10-01	30.30	@ Houston Texans	30	1408.11	39.73%	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1521.42	60.05%
11	2024-01-07	29.98	@ New York Giants	27	1403.27	29.21%	Philadelphia Eagles	10	1598.09	70.60%
12	2023-09-10	29.31	Dallas Cowboys	40	1567.59	54.81%	@ New York Giants	0	1491.59	44.97%
13	2023-12-31	28.98	Green Bay Packers	33	1497.16	41.10%	@ Minnesota Vikings	10	1517.21	58.68%
14	2023-10-01	28.89	Baltimore Ravens	28	1529.10	43.68%	@ Cleveland Browns	3	1530.82	56.10%
15	2024-01-14 *	28.88	Green Bay Packers	48	1536.05	29.78%	@ Dallas Cowboys	32	1643.41	70.22%
16	2023-09-10	28.37	@ Cleveland Browns	24	1493.65	39.69%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1607.26	60.09%
17	2023-11-12	27.78	San Francisco 49ers	34	1623.28	51.35%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1571.41	48.42%
18	2023-10-22	27.54	@ Baltimore Ravens	38	1556.14	52.53%	Detroit Lions	6	1579.44	47.24%
19	2023-09-10	27.18	Los Angeles Rams	30	1440.09	35.78%	@ Seattle Seahawks	13	1499.26	64.01%
20	2023-12-03	27.15	San Francisco 49ers	42	1674.94	44.82%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	19	1668.58	54.95%
21	2023-12-10	26.97	@ Chicago Bears	28	1397.77	32.17%	Detroit Lions	13	1568.31	67.63%
22	2023-12-10	26.94	Denver Broncos	24	1454.81	36.36%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	7	1509.64	63.43%
23	2023-12-10	26.92	@ New York Jets	30	1405.15	46.45%	Houston Texans	6	1470.79	53.33%
24	2023-09-24	26.23	Buffalo Bills	37	1598.29	56.14%	@ Washington Commanders	3	1512.93	43.64%
25	2023-10-29	25.92	Cincinnati Bengals	31	1564.76	32.52%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1649.20	67.28%