2022 NFL Season

271 regular-season games · 14 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2019

Runner-Up

Philadelphia Eagles

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2017

Biggest Overachiever

Minnesota Vikings

3.17 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.83 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Bears

3.89 wins below expected

3 wins · 6.89 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	13	3	.812	—	455	286	+169	10.91	+2.09
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	9	8	.529	4.5	397	399	-2	8.89	+0.11
3	New England Patriots	8	9	.471	5.5	364	347	+17	8.47	-0.47
4	New York Jets	7	10	.412	6.5	296	316	-20	7.03	-0.03

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	12	4	.750	—	418	322	+96	8.95	+3.05
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	10	7	.588	2.5	350	315	+35	9.88	+0.12
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	8	.529	3.5	308	346	-38	7.38	+1.62
4	Cleveland Browns	7	10	.412	5.5	361	381	-20	8.07	-1.07

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Jacksonville Jaguars Division	9	8	0	.529	—	404	350	+54	7.22	+1.78
2	Tennessee Titans	7	10	0	.412	2	298	359	-61	9.13	-2.13
3	Indianapolis Colts	4	12	1	.265	4.5	291	427	-136	8.17	-3.67
4	Houston Texans	3	13	1	.206	5.5	289	420	-131	5.54	-2.04

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	14	3	.824	—	496	369	+127	11.53	+2.47
2	Los Angeles Chargers Playoffs	10	7	.588	4	391	384	+7	8.49	+1.51
3	Las Vegas Raiders	6	11	.353	8	395	420	-25	7.43	-1.43
4	Denver Broncos	5	12	.294	9	287	359	-72	7.10	-2.10

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	14	3	0	.824	—	477	344	+133	10.98	+3.02
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	12	5	0	.706	2	467	342	+125	10.72	+1.28
3	New York Giants Playoffs	9	7	1	.559	4.5	365	371	-6	7.59	+1.91
4	Washington Commanders	8	8	1	.500	5.5	321	343	-22	7.56	+0.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	13	4	.765	—	424	427	-3	9.83	+3.17
2	Detroit Lions	9	8	.529	4	453	427	+26	7.20	+1.80
3	Green Bay Packers	8	9	.471	5	370	371	-1	8.60	-0.60
4	Chicago Bears	3	14	.176	10	326	463	-137	6.89	-3.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	8	9	.471	—	313	358	-45	9.61	-1.61
2	Carolina Panthers	7	10	.412	1	347	374	-27	7.04	-0.04
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	10	.412	1	365	386	-21	7.60	-0.60
4	New Orleans Saints	7	10	.412	1	330	345	-15	8.14	-1.14

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	4	.765	—	450	277	+173	10.52	+2.48
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	9	8	.529	4	407	401	+6	9.10	-0.10
3	Los Angeles Rams	5	12	.294	8	307	384	-77	8.04	-3.04
4	Arizona Cardinals	4	13	.235	9	340	449	-109	7.39	-3.39

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Jacksonville Jaguars 31

Los Angeles Chargers 30

Jan 14

Buffalo Bills 34

Miami Dolphins 31

Jan 15

Cincinnati Bengals 24

Baltimore Ravens 17

Jan 15

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Jan 21

Cincinnati Bengals 27

Buffalo Bills 10

Jan 22

Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs 23

Cincinnati Bengals 20

Jan 29

NFC

Wild Card Round

San Francisco 49ers 41

Seattle Seahawks 23

Jan 14

New York Giants 31

Minnesota Vikings 24

Jan 15

Dallas Cowboys 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

Jan 16

Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles 38

New York Giants 7

Jan 21

San Francisco 49ers 19

Dallas Cowboys 12

Jan 22

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 31

San Francisco 49ers 7

Jan 29

Super Bowl

Kansas City Chiefs 38

Philadelphia Eagles 35

Feb 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1712	13	11.41	+1.59	88.03%	5	8	10	11	13	14	17
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1694	14	11.53	+2.47	96.20%	4	8	10	12	13	14	17
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1683	13	10.52	+2.48	94.59%	2	7	9	10	12	14	17
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1653	12	9.45	+2.55	94.57%	2	6	8	9	11	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1618	14	10.98	+3.02	97.47%	3	8	10	11	12	14	17
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1615	12	10.72	+1.28	83.35%	3	7	9	11	12	14	17
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1542	10	9.88	+0.12	63.52%	2	7	8	10	11	13	17
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1541	13	9.83	+3.17	97.27%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1528	9	7.38	+1.62	86.77%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1526	9	7.22	+1.78	88.02%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1525	8	8.60	-0.60	49.68%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1517	10	8.49	+1.51	84.99%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1512	8	8.47	-0.47	52.17%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1512	9	9.10	-0.10	59.24%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1510	9	7.20	+1.80	88.15%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1503	8	9.61	-1.61	29.62%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1498	7	8.14	-1.14	39.33%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1492	9	8.89	+0.11	63.35%	2	6	7	9	10	12	17
Washington Commanders	NFC	NFC East	1484	8.5	7.56	+0.94	70.34%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1483	7	8.07	-1.07	40.56%	0	5	7	8	9	11	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1468	9.5	7.59	+1.91	84.49%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1467	7	7.04	-0.04	61.12%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1453	6	7.43	-1.43	34.15%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1445	7	9.13	-2.13	21.34%	3	6	8	9	10	12	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1424	7	7.60	-0.60	49.75%	0	4	6	8	9	11	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1413	7	7.03	-0.03	61.28%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1412	5	8.04	-3.04	10.48%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1381	5	7.10	-2.10	21.93%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1376	4	7.39	-3.39	7.36%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1368	4.5	8.17	-3.67	3.30%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1326	3	6.89	-3.89	4.04%	1	4	5	7	8	10	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1319	3.5	5.54	-2.04	15.07%	0	2	4	5	7	9	13

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	3-1 (3.0 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	3-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	4-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Commanders
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Commanders	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (3.1 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Commanders	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0-4 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (2.3 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Minnesota Vikings	13	9.83	+3.17
2	Cincinnati Bengals	12	8.95	+3.05
3	Philadelphia Eagles	14	10.98	+3.02
4	San Francisco 49ers	13	10.52	+2.48
5	Kansas City Chiefs	14	11.53	+2.47

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	3	6.89	-3.89
2	Indianapolis Colts	4.5	8.17	-3.67
3	Arizona Cardinals	4	7.39	-3.39
4	Los Angeles Rams	5	8.04	-3.04
5	Tennessee Titans	7	9.13	-2.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	8	Nov 6 – Jan 8	1 in 87
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	Dec 11 – Jan 7	1 in 84
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	Sep 25 – Nov 13	1 in 78
4	San Francisco 49ers	10	Oct 30 – Jan 8	1 in 66
5	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Sep 11 – Nov 3	1 in 64

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tennessee Titans	7	Nov 27 – Jan 7	1 in 339
2	Chicago Bears	10	Oct 30 – Jan 8	1 in 134
3	Indianapolis Colts	7	Nov 20 – Jan 8	1 in 76
4	Green Bay Packers	5	Oct 9 – Nov 6	1 in 70
5	Arizona Cardinals	7	Nov 21 – Jan 8	1 in 46

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	70.63%	20.34%	6.96%	2.07%
Miami Dolphins	14.80%	35.25%	31.58%	18.37%
New England Patriots	10.96%	30.16%	35.38%	23.50%
New York Jets	3.61%	14.25%	26.08%	56.06%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	43.05%	30.17%	18.09%	8.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	35.44%	30.92%	21.46%	12.18%
Cleveland Browns	13.30%	21.90%	32.02%	32.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.21%	17.01%	28.43%	46.35%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tennessee Titans	50.47%	28.77%	15.45%	5.31%
Indianapolis Colts	30.14%	34.16%	24.36%	11.34%
Jacksonville Jaguars	15.53%	26.37%	36.04%	22.06%
Houston Texans	3.86%	10.70%	24.15%	61.29%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	78.84%	15.84%	4.24%	1.08%
Los Angeles Chargers	12.18%	40.80%	28.61%	18.41%
Las Vegas Raiders	5.29%	23.93%	34.22%	36.56%
Denver Broncos	3.69%	19.43%	32.93%	43.95%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	49.15%	35.10%	11.81%	3.94%
Dallas Cowboys	42.28%	38.71%	14.04%	4.97%
Washington Commanders	4.46%	13.12%	37.91%	44.51%
New York Giants	4.11%	13.07%	36.24%	46.58%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	55.14%	25.36%	14.11%	5.39%
Green Bay Packers	27.00%	35.13%	23.80%	14.07%
Detroit Lions	10.16%	21.17%	32.21%	36.46%
Chicago Bears	7.70%	18.34%	29.88%	44.08%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	53.97%	25.15%	14.18%	6.70%
New Orleans Saints	22.01%	30.81%	26.23%	20.95%
Atlanta Falcons	14.53%	25.27%	29.88%	30.32%
Carolina Panthers	9.49%	18.77%	29.71%	42.03%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	55.90%	26.29%	12.74%	5.07%
Seattle Seahawks	25.02%	33.84%	24.80%	16.34%
Los Angeles Rams	12.50%	23.15%	32.88%	31.47%
Arizona Cardinals	6.58%	16.72%	29.58%	47.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kansas City Chiefs	32.03%	22.32%	14.52%	9.24%	6.82%	4.65%	3.18%	2.22%	1.79%	1.07%	0.81%	0.49%	0.37%	0.26%	0.18%	0.05%
Buffalo Bills	30.73%	21.15%	14.20%	9.32%	6.95%	4.76%	3.68%	2.43%	2.02%	1.79%	1.30%	0.77%	0.46%	0.28%	0.14%	0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	8.97%	11.94%	12.84%	11.09%	9.56%	8.69%	7.86%	6.20%	5.30%	4.70%	3.69%	3.06%	2.57%	1.82%	1.04%	0.67%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.44%	9.65%	10.33%	9.74%	9.16%	8.47%	7.88%	7.14%	6.15%	5.73%	5.06%	4.19%	3.45%	2.83%	1.73%	1.05%
Tennessee Titans	4.61%	7.25%	9.58%	11.10%	9.72%	8.94%	8.26%	7.99%	6.79%	5.84%	5.05%	4.77%	3.86%	2.73%	2.05%	1.46%
Miami Dolphins	4.09%	5.57%	6.73%	7.62%	8.95%	9.05%	8.38%	8.28%	7.76%	7.23%	6.46%	5.73%	5.01%	4.18%	3.46%	1.50%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.62%	4.36%	5.35%	6.56%	7.85%	8.26%	8.25%	8.38%	8.16%	7.89%	7.09%	6.34%	6.19%	5.12%	4.39%	3.19%
New England Patriots	2.72%	4.18%	5.21%	6.44%	7.65%	7.87%	7.81%	8.42%	8.40%	7.50%	7.64%	6.67%	6.09%	5.97%	4.79%	2.64%
Indianapolis Colts	2.08%	3.63%	5.08%	7.00%	6.95%	7.27%	8.16%	8.49%	8.15%	7.84%	7.23%	7.40%	6.03%	5.45%	5.18%	4.06%
Cleveland Browns	1.73%	3.05%	4.70%	5.50%	5.87%	6.46%	7.08%	7.60%	7.84%	7.83%	8.11%	8.24%	8.18%	7.12%	6.29%	4.40%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.65%	1.52%	2.34%	3.55%	4.64%	5.54%	6.16%	6.54%	6.99%	8.30%	8.72%	8.20%	9.53%	9.61%	9.65%	8.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.71%	1.57%	2.97%	3.21%	4.10%	5.37%	5.67%	5.98%	7.62%	7.45%	8.20%	8.91%	9.56%	10.52%	10.50%	7.66%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.63%	1.34%	2.56%	3.60%	4.22%	4.74%	5.68%	6.30%	6.67%	7.97%	8.72%	9.52%	10.06%	9.42%	8.37%	10.20%
Denver Broncos	0.44%	1.06%	1.48%	2.50%	3.49%	4.31%	5.51%	5.94%	6.90%	7.83%	8.68%	9.09%	10.13%	10.81%	11.26%	10.57%
New York Jets	0.49%	1.20%	1.74%	2.77%	3.12%	3.98%	4.51%	5.55%	6.23%	7.19%	7.65%	9.50%	9.98%	11.94%	13.25%	10.90%
Houston Texans	0.06%	0.21%	0.37%	0.76%	0.95%	1.64%	1.93%	2.54%	3.23%	3.84%	5.59%	7.12%	8.53%	11.94%	17.72%	33.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Philadelphia Eagles	24.06%	17.17%	13.25%	10.49%	8.16%	6.88%	5.38%	4.11%	2.83%	2.10%	1.87%	1.42%	1.03%	0.58%	0.40%	0.27%
Dallas Cowboys	20.42%	14.66%	12.58%	11.15%	9.20%	8.14%	6.05%	4.76%	3.58%	2.97%	2.20%	1.49%	1.25%	0.67%	0.53%	0.35%
San Francisco 49ers	17.20%	15.97%	13.05%	10.31%	9.46%	7.38%	5.85%	5.06%	4.18%	3.26%	2.48%	2.00%	1.56%	1.15%	0.57%	0.52%
Minnesota Vikings	10.64%	11.81%	11.77%	10.52%	9.11%	8.10%	7.16%	6.00%	5.68%	4.74%	4.03%	3.72%	2.56%	1.85%	1.52%	0.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.47%	9.93%	11.44%	10.96%	9.84%	8.14%	7.82%	6.58%	5.75%	4.88%	4.21%	3.79%	2.78%	2.39%	1.89%	1.13%
Seattle Seahawks	5.68%	6.87%	7.50%	8.35%	8.64%	8.48%	8.25%	8.28%	6.60%	6.43%	6.01%	5.09%	4.59%	3.87%	3.34%	2.02%
Green Bay Packers	3.56%	4.96%	5.95%	6.85%	7.41%	8.29%	8.64%	8.48%	7.46%	6.98%	6.81%	6.28%	5.83%	4.70%	4.65%	3.15%
New Orleans Saints	2.18%	3.89%	4.49%	5.40%	6.58%	7.22%	7.18%	7.73%	7.10%	7.74%	7.49%	7.41%	7.02%	6.84%	6.14%	5.59%
Los Angeles Rams	1.96%	3.45%	3.88%	4.97%	5.73%	6.22%	6.70%	6.99%	7.88%	7.64%	8.34%	7.70%	7.84%	7.79%	7.04%	5.87%
Atlanta Falcons	0.88%	2.53%	3.01%	3.83%	4.70%	5.23%	6.39%	6.73%	7.89%	7.72%	7.36%	7.97%	8.56%	9.06%	9.15%	8.99%
Washington Commanders	1.13%	1.96%	2.55%	3.26%	3.92%	4.50%	5.48%	6.13%	7.56%	8.65%	8.70%	8.95%	9.37%	9.56%	9.22%	9.06%
New York Giants	1.22%	1.65%	2.25%	3.39%	3.99%	4.76%	5.15%	6.67%	7.64%	7.87%	8.95%	8.98%	9.43%	9.60%	9.37%	9.08%
Arizona Cardinals	1.02%	1.67%	2.15%	2.93%	3.44%	4.75%	5.22%	6.21%	7.09%	7.69%	7.79%	8.94%	9.15%	10.77%	10.83%	10.35%
Detroit Lions	0.69%	1.35%	2.52%	2.78%	3.67%	4.52%	5.48%	5.63%	6.23%	7.45%	7.93%	8.96%	9.25%	9.63%	10.97%	12.94%
Carolina Panthers	0.39%	1.09%	1.85%	2.64%	3.15%	4.00%	4.70%	5.72%	6.39%	7.17%	8.01%	8.85%	9.58%	10.09%	12.08%	14.29%
Chicago Bears	0.50%	1.04%	1.76%	2.17%	3.00%	3.39%	4.55%	4.92%	6.14%	6.71%	7.82%	8.45%	10.20%	11.45%	12.30%	15.60%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Kansas City Chiefs	18.80%	14.37%	11.54%	9.69%	7.60%	6.02%	5.39%	4.32%	3.45%	3.37%	2.49%	2.19%	1.95%	1.51%	1.19%	1.03%	0.82%	0.94%	0.66%	0.45%	0.44%	0.36%	0.28%	0.30%	0.26%	0.17%	0.13%	0.08%	0.07%	0.08%	0.05%	—
Buffalo Bills	18.53%	12.81%	11.12%	9.16%	7.85%	6.48%	5.09%	4.32%	3.76%	3.09%	2.76%	2.02%	2.00%	1.68%	1.53%	1.17%	1.14%	0.84%	0.99%	0.69%	0.63%	0.60%	0.47%	0.37%	0.23%	0.15%	0.21%	0.11%	0.10%	0.09%	0.01%	—
Philadelphia Eagles	11.92%	11.48%	9.58%	9.00%	6.61%	6.79%	5.57%	5.08%	4.10%	3.93%	3.56%	3.35%	2.63%	2.42%	2.30%	1.81%	1.46%	1.20%	0.95%	1.17%	0.88%	0.85%	0.72%	0.59%	0.48%	0.44%	0.26%	0.26%	0.25%	0.16%	0.15%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	9.76%	10.18%	8.05%	7.60%	6.92%	6.21%	5.80%	5.32%	5.12%	4.49%	3.86%	3.61%	3.01%	2.96%	2.67%	2.12%	1.74%	1.72%	1.49%	1.33%	1.28%	0.83%	0.83%	0.70%	0.55%	0.48%	0.38%	0.30%	0.25%	0.18%	0.19%	0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	8.47%	9.05%	8.12%	7.36%	6.87%	6.53%	5.42%	5.48%	4.78%	4.44%	3.75%	3.55%	3.12%	2.74%	2.86%	2.42%	2.17%	1.72%	1.69%	1.62%	1.38%	1.20%	0.99%	0.92%	0.75%	0.66%	0.66%	0.37%	0.37%	0.17%	0.26%	0.11%
Baltimore Ravens	4.45%	5.31%	5.98%	5.84%	6.11%	5.84%	5.42%	5.36%	4.96%	4.51%	4.30%	4.86%	3.68%	3.77%	3.27%	3.18%	2.77%	2.57%	2.43%	2.31%	2.30%	1.75%	1.72%	1.37%	1.26%	0.96%	1.02%	0.90%	0.71%	0.44%	0.40%	0.25%
Minnesota Vikings	4.90%	5.35%	6.13%	5.75%	5.97%	6.09%	5.21%	5.23%	4.75%	4.59%	4.13%	3.81%	3.78%	3.60%	3.19%	2.88%	2.89%	2.88%	2.58%	2.13%	2.32%	1.79%	2.07%	1.50%	1.39%	1.20%	0.99%	0.86%	0.82%	0.61%	0.47%	0.14%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.01%	4.36%	5.21%	5.29%	5.38%	5.41%	5.59%	5.06%	5.19%	4.39%	4.15%	4.27%	4.32%	4.01%	3.45%	3.28%	2.90%	2.85%	2.64%	2.31%	2.45%	1.94%	1.98%	1.74%	1.28%	1.47%	1.34%	1.04%	0.89%	0.90%	0.63%	0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	3.40%	3.93%	4.99%	4.93%	5.51%	4.43%	4.65%	4.81%	4.65%	4.56%	4.05%	4.13%	4.09%	3.98%	3.50%	3.28%	3.59%	3.31%	3.04%	2.60%	2.64%	2.47%	1.85%	2.35%	1.77%	1.71%	1.52%	1.20%	1.08%	0.91%	0.70%	0.37%
Tennessee Titans	2.39%	2.59%	3.36%	3.69%	4.48%	4.75%	4.74%	5.53%	4.34%	5.03%	4.31%	4.56%	4.28%	4.13%	3.67%	3.77%	3.74%	3.79%	2.86%	2.93%	2.64%	2.79%	2.47%	2.45%	2.09%	1.75%	1.70%	1.41%	1.19%	1.03%	0.89%	0.65%
Seattle Seahawks	2.21%	3.35%	3.25%	3.85%	3.92%	3.92%	4.09%	4.45%	4.14%	4.47%	4.65%	4.14%	4.07%	4.21%	4.21%	4.11%	3.27%	3.13%	3.23%	3.42%	2.92%	2.61%	2.75%	2.47%	2.54%	1.92%	2.21%	1.70%	1.85%	1.14%	1.14%	0.66%
Miami Dolphins	1.80%	2.13%	2.92%	2.78%	3.49%	3.53%	3.88%	3.82%	4.53%	4.43%	4.39%	4.31%	4.03%	4.31%	3.80%	4.12%	3.89%	4.08%	3.62%	3.73%	3.00%	3.06%	2.83%	2.90%	2.58%	2.75%	2.08%	2.01%	1.74%	1.54%	1.31%	0.61%
Green Bay Packers	1.32%	2.02%	2.22%	2.89%	2.99%	2.90%	3.35%	3.71%	3.98%	3.74%	3.98%	3.96%	4.33%	4.34%	4.06%	3.89%	3.84%	4.02%	3.70%	3.74%	3.41%	3.60%	3.11%	3.24%	3.00%	2.70%	2.53%	2.26%	2.46%	1.90%	1.76%	1.05%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.22%	1.47%	1.96%	2.37%	2.64%	3.10%	3.16%	3.33%	3.76%	3.96%	3.56%	4.10%	4.14%	4.12%	4.12%	4.13%	3.88%	3.77%	3.80%	3.68%	3.81%	3.76%	3.48%	3.24%	3.19%	2.98%	2.77%	2.49%	2.41%	2.31%	1.66%	1.63%
New England Patriots	1.14%	1.51%	1.83%	2.26%	2.64%	3.04%	2.98%	3.39%	3.74%	3.63%	3.96%	3.87%	4.09%	3.96%	4.05%	3.70%	4.23%	3.96%	3.96%	3.92%	3.41%	3.74%	3.49%	3.50%	3.10%	3.23%	2.93%	2.82%	2.41%	2.45%	1.84%	1.22%
Indianapolis Colts	0.78%	1.32%	1.44%	2.05%	2.28%	2.59%	3.02%	3.44%	3.11%	3.59%	3.43%	3.93%	3.43%	4.22%	3.53%	4.61%	3.91%	4.63%	3.57%	4.05%	3.39%	4.05%	3.55%	3.60%	3.14%	3.55%	2.97%	2.95%	2.74%	2.55%	2.56%	2.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.87%	1.18%	1.74%	2.19%	1.99%	2.31%	2.98%	2.84%	3.46%	3.34%	3.45%	3.26%	4.01%	3.52%	3.71%	3.55%	3.74%	3.87%	4.09%	3.82%	3.84%	3.82%	3.63%	3.82%	3.44%	3.50%	3.35%	3.36%	3.36%	3.03%	2.72%	2.21%
Cleveland Browns	0.66%	1.16%	1.30%	1.58%	2.03%	2.57%	2.40%	2.84%	2.99%	3.06%	3.16%	3.59%	3.42%	3.46%	3.84%	3.99%	3.62%	3.78%	4.16%	3.81%	3.72%	4.18%	3.85%	3.85%	4.37%	3.91%	3.53%	3.65%	3.30%	3.30%	2.73%	2.19%
Los Angeles Rams	0.77%	1.06%	1.58%	1.62%	2.18%	2.14%	2.63%	2.40%	2.79%	2.83%	3.51%	3.12%	3.34%	3.50%	3.69%	3.94%	3.64%	3.77%	3.92%	4.04%	4.10%	3.86%	3.96%	3.90%	3.84%	3.79%	4.14%	4.06%	3.53%	3.25%	2.95%	2.15%
Atlanta Falcons	0.28%	0.61%	0.88%	1.35%	1.46%	1.70%	1.85%	2.15%	2.22%	2.47%	2.81%	2.80%	3.05%	3.06%	3.52%	3.63%	3.96%	3.92%	3.96%	3.63%	3.84%	3.66%	4.25%	3.90%	4.38%	4.09%	4.38%	4.75%	4.79%	4.53%	4.47%	3.65%
New York Giants	0.33%	0.65%	0.72%	0.95%	1.12%	1.63%	1.87%	1.60%	2.22%	1.99%	2.63%	2.41%	2.79%	2.80%	3.52%	3.31%	3.83%	3.60%	4.13%	4.17%	4.43%	4.47%	4.55%	4.75%	4.56%	4.59%	4.64%	4.43%	4.60%	4.61%	4.60%	3.50%
Washington Commanders	0.32%	0.65%	0.91%	1.19%	1.14%	1.58%	1.79%	1.64%	2.07%	1.87%	2.69%	2.47%	2.44%	2.77%	3.43%	3.40%	3.86%	3.72%	4.10%	4.07%	4.58%	4.54%	4.18%	4.43%	5.02%	4.62%	4.63%	4.52%	4.65%	4.44%	4.34%	3.94%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.17%	0.50%	0.62%	0.79%	1.06%	1.28%	1.69%	1.95%	2.07%	2.52%	2.54%	2.73%	3.08%	3.18%	3.08%	3.60%	3.17%	3.62%	3.64%	4.05%	4.25%	4.20%	4.27%	4.11%	4.56%	4.81%	4.56%	4.85%	5.07%	4.95%	4.68%	4.35%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.21%	0.46%	0.66%	0.82%	1.12%	1.59%	1.85%	1.52%	1.93%	2.11%	2.49%	2.76%	2.74%	2.82%	3.15%	2.88%	3.72%	3.75%	3.79%	3.87%	3.99%	3.99%	4.54%	4.25%	4.37%	4.83%	4.98%	5.69%	4.60%	5.71%	4.33%	4.48%
Arizona Cardinals	0.41%	0.49%	0.76%	0.88%	0.97%	1.34%	1.44%	1.53%	2.00%	1.92%	2.37%	2.36%	2.75%	2.70%	3.32%	3.15%	3.45%	3.24%	4.08%	4.08%	4.03%	4.17%	4.27%	4.71%	4.64%	4.87%	5.05%	5.11%	5.28%	5.14%	4.93%	4.56%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.25%	0.37%	0.59%	0.82%	1.15%	1.21%	1.41%	1.96%	1.80%	2.17%	2.03%	2.66%	2.48%	2.98%	2.84%	3.26%	3.05%	3.54%	3.33%	4.10%	3.89%	4.79%	4.44%	4.87%	4.56%	5.19%	5.14%	5.09%	4.71%	4.56%	4.91%	5.85%
Detroit Lions	0.18%	0.40%	0.60%	0.84%	1.24%	1.16%	1.24%	1.46%	1.79%	2.17%	2.24%	2.27%	2.67%	2.73%	2.92%	3.01%	3.47%	3.28%	3.47%	3.54%	4.22%	4.15%	4.33%	4.74%	4.30%	4.71%	4.98%	5.29%	5.38%	5.57%	6.12%	5.53%
Denver Broncos	0.09%	0.35%	0.52%	0.58%	0.73%	0.85%	1.13%	1.28%	1.62%	1.86%	2.14%	2.11%	2.59%	2.75%	2.82%	3.08%	3.20%	3.24%	3.93%	4.12%	4.01%	4.09%	4.47%	4.34%	5.18%	5.08%	5.06%	5.78%	5.31%	5.99%	5.26%	6.44%
Carolina Panthers	0.10%	0.24%	0.48%	0.60%	0.74%	1.02%	1.40%	1.41%	1.45%	1.69%	2.11%	2.19%	2.35%	2.30%	2.74%	2.87%	3.31%	3.14%	3.77%	3.63%	4.29%	4.10%	4.64%	4.03%	5.42%	4.64%	5.19%	4.95%	6.01%	6.08%	6.83%	6.28%
New York Jets	0.13%	0.36%	0.49%	0.59%	0.86%	0.95%	1.29%	1.27%	1.42%	1.75%	2.05%	2.03%	2.40%	2.26%	2.58%	2.79%	3.07%	3.13%	3.47%	3.64%	4.07%	3.80%	4.10%	4.54%	4.80%	5.27%	5.56%	5.78%	6.52%	6.68%	6.15%	6.20%
Chicago Bears	0.12%	0.27%	0.36%	0.52%	0.81%	0.88%	1.33%	1.14%	1.33%	1.64%	1.81%	1.84%	2.16%	2.10%	2.49%	2.59%	3.14%	3.25%	3.33%	3.58%	3.37%	3.97%	4.62%	4.82%	4.87%	5.36%	5.56%	5.86%	5.97%	6.34%	7.26%	7.31%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.02%	0.09%	0.17%	0.14%	0.16%	0.34%	0.36%	0.48%	0.39%	0.64%	0.74%	0.78%	1.11%	0.95%	1.45%	1.53%	1.74%	1.62%	1.77%	2.47%	2.81%	3.31%	3.70%	4.08%	4.62%	5.55%	6.07%	7.58%	9.36%	13.70%	22.26%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	32.03%	23.39%	15.02%	8.40%	5.98%	4.47%	3.45%	7.26%
Buffalo Bills	30.73%	20.99%	13.52%	5.39%	9.84%	5.91%	4.13%	9.49%
Baltimore Ravens	8.97%	12.17%	13.58%	8.33%	10.13%	9.16%	7.76%	29.90%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.44%	9.94%	11.01%	7.05%	9.74%	8.62%	8.06%	38.14%
Tennessee Titans	4.61%	7.69%	12.75%	25.42%	2.98%	4.32%	5.33%	36.90%
Miami Dolphins	4.09%	4.72%	3.86%	2.13%	13.47%	11.45%	9.64%	50.64%
New England Patriots	2.72%	3.57%	2.75%	1.92%	11.00%	9.86%	8.85%	59.33%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.62%	3.77%	3.49%	2.30%	10.44%	10.13%	9.60%	57.65%
Indianapolis Colts	2.08%	3.93%	7.42%	16.71%	2.22%	4.57%	5.96%	57.11%
Cleveland Browns	1.73%	3.06%	4.95%	3.56%	5.69%	6.95%	7.59%	66.47%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.71%	1.67%	3.29%	2.54%	3.44%	5.46%	6.02%	76.87%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.65%	1.35%	1.83%	1.46%	5.01%	6.27%	6.92%	76.51%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.63%	1.45%	3.56%	9.89%	1.76%	2.96%	4.42%	75.33%
New York Jets	0.49%	1.07%	1.18%	0.87%	4.25%	4.31%	4.93%	82.90%
Denver Broncos	0.44%	0.97%	1.20%	1.08%	3.77%	4.58%	5.96%	82.00%
Houston Texans	0.06%	0.26%	0.59%	2.95%	0.28%	0.98%	1.38%	93.50%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	24.06%	13.97%	7.84%	3.28%	19.56%	9.71%	6.41%	15.17%
Dallas Cowboys	20.42%	11.94%	6.67%	3.25%	20.67%	11.34%	7.25%	18.46%
San Francisco 49ers	17.20%	17.35%	13.20%	8.15%	8.16%	8.47%	6.55%	20.92%
Minnesota Vikings	10.64%	13.10%	15.76%	15.64%	4.24%	5.28%	5.80%	29.54%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.47%	11.31%	15.20%	18.99%	3.30%	5.21%	5.89%	31.63%
Seattle Seahawks	5.68%	7.40%	6.73%	5.21%	8.71%	10.18%	9.09%	47.00%
Green Bay Packers	3.56%	5.44%	8.20%	9.80%	4.64%	6.45%	8.17%	53.74%
New Orleans Saints	2.18%	4.39%	6.00%	9.44%	3.65%	5.63%	6.50%	62.21%
Los Angeles Rams	1.96%	3.63%	3.93%	2.98%	5.27%	7.34%	7.03%	67.86%
New York Giants	1.22%	1.21%	1.06%	0.62%	5.34%	5.77%	6.16%	78.62%
Washington Commanders	1.13%	1.45%	1.06%	0.82%	5.26%	5.83%	6.07%	78.38%
Arizona Cardinals	1.02%	1.91%	1.95%	1.70%	3.15%	4.89%	5.69%	79.69%
Atlanta Falcons	0.88%	2.74%	4.15%	6.76%	2.67%	4.13%	5.80%	72.87%
Detroit Lions	0.69%	1.58%	3.27%	4.62%	2.27%	3.74%	5.04%	78.79%
Chicago Bears	0.50%	1.27%	2.26%	3.67%	1.78%	2.89%	4.17%	83.46%
Carolina Panthers	0.39%	1.31%	2.72%	5.07%	1.33%	3.14%	4.38%	81.66%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	76.28%	76.28%	54.10%	34.50%	21.89%
Kansas City Chiefs	78.35%	78.35%	54.14%	31.89%	19.60%
San Francisco 49ers	62.77%	62.77%	43.33%	28.29%	14.71%
Philadelphia Eagles	61.79%	61.79%	36.81%	20.89%	9.06%
Dallas Cowboys	61.12%	56.71%	32.83%	17.81%	8.00%
Cincinnati Bengals	54.42%	43.36%	24.54%	12.50%	7.29%
Minnesota Vikings	59.82%	43.95%	20.26%	8.67%	3.23%
Baltimore Ravens	61.13%	40.27%	16.58%	6.39%	2.83%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	59.90%	37.18%	15.10%	5.46%	1.73%
Green Bay Packers	42.70%	24.56%	10.58%	4.32%	1.54%
Seattle Seahawks	47.32%	26.91%	11.59%	4.65%	1.42%
New England Patriots	37.95%	18.40%	6.64%	2.22%	1.09%
Los Angeles Chargers	39.73%	19.29%	7.01%	2.22%	0.90%
Miami Dolphins	45.27%	21.87%	7.37%	2.26%	0.89%
Jacksonville Jaguars	24.04%	12.71%	4.68%	1.69%	0.75%
New Orleans Saints	35.61%	17.86%	6.89%	2.43%	0.71%
Tennessee Titans	58.49%	29.04%	7.81%	1.97%	0.68%
Cleveland Browns	31.80%	14.56%	5.01%	1.45%	0.58%
Detroit Lions	20.52%	10.49%	4.31%	1.59%	0.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.42%	11.06%	4.27%	1.44%	0.53%
Washington Commanders	20.49%	9.07%	3.36%	1.34%	0.47%
New York Giants	20.16%	8.66%	3.37%	1.10%	0.42%
Carolina Panthers	17.95%	7.84%	2.76%	1.02%	0.30%
Los Angeles Rams	30.18%	11.60%	3.38%	0.95%	0.25%
Atlanta Falcons	26.25%	10.06%	2.84%	0.91%	0.18%
Indianapolis Colts	40.81%	14.47%	2.85%	0.52%	0.13%
Las Vegas Raiders	22.84%	8.43%	2.20%	0.45%	0.10%
New York Jets	16.61%	5.24%	1.33%	0.30%	0.06%
Arizona Cardinals	19.29%	6.26%	1.53%	0.37%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	17.56%	5.06%	1.25%	0.18%	0.04%
Houston Texans	6.44%	1.61%	0.22%	0.02%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	16.04%	4.29%	1.06%	0.20%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.65%	2.89%	2.49%	1.65%	0.50%	3.07%	1.37%	1.58%	1.59%	2.49%	3.16%	2.67%	1.45%	1.37%	3.37%
Buffalo Bills	4.23%		3.64%	3.08%	1.93%	0.79%	3.64%	1.87%	2.04%	2.67%	3.74%	5.42%	3.91%	2.16%	2.25%	4.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.12%	2.34%		2.20%	1.40%	0.62%	3.33%	1.49%	1.96%	1.59%	2.75%	3.44%	2.60%	1.54%	1.37%	4.17%
Cleveland Browns	1.60%	0.65%	0.91%		0.49%	0.27%	1.41%	0.44%	0.86%	0.64%	1.00%	1.13%	0.91%	0.54%	0.35%	1.63%
Denver Broncos	0.54%	0.42%	0.23%	0.33%		0.08%	0.53%	0.16%	0.29%	0.10%	0.22%	0.35%	0.23%	0.13%	0.06%	0.95%
Houston Texans	0.21%	0.09%	0.11%	0.12%	0.09%		0.04%	0.04%	0.05%	0.08%	0.14%	0.18%	0.13%	0.06%	0.08%	0.13%
Indianapolis Colts	1.35%	0.69%	0.68%	0.71%	0.75%	0.13%		0.35%	0.55%	0.75%	1.06%	1.48%	1.11%	0.66%	0.56%	1.56%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.44%	0.83%	0.76%	0.74%	0.44%	0.03%	0.80%		0.70%	0.58%	1.13%	1.26%	1.24%	0.46%	0.35%	1.32%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.23%	1.91%	2.99%	3.45%	2.67%	0.61%	3.54%	2.06%		3.15%	4.61%	4.46%	4.05%	1.94%	2.43%	4.22%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.79%	0.42%	0.68%	0.40%	0.15%	0.11%	1.01%	0.31%	0.77%		0.33%	0.59%	0.57%	0.11%	0.28%	1.26%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.95%	1.02%	0.88%	0.93%	0.35%	0.33%	2.36%	0.76%	1.51%	0.44%		1.12%	0.83%	0.47%	0.67%	3.05%
Miami Dolphins	2.17%	1.26%	1.21%	0.99%	0.73%	0.34%	2.63%	0.90%	1.17%	0.67%	1.07%		0.69%	0.47%	0.52%	2.96%
New England Patriots	1.84%	1.10%	0.99%	1.00%	0.56%	0.38%	1.89%	0.71%	1.00%	0.50%	1.01%	0.83%		0.32%	0.58%	2.97%
New York Jets	0.57%	0.41%	0.30%	0.27%	0.11%	0.11%	0.64%	0.21%	0.35%	0.22%	0.20%	0.20%	0.26%		0.17%	0.73%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.22%	0.67%	0.63%	0.56%	0.33%	0.19%	0.97%	0.43%	0.64%	0.37%	0.72%	0.91%	0.77%	0.38%		1.56%
Tennessee Titans	2.57%	0.77%	1.60%	1.70%	1.29%	0.40%	2.56%	0.86%	0.92%	1.71%	2.59%	2.96%	2.30%	1.17%	1.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.26%	0.12%	0.33%	0.28%	0.14%	0.36%	0.43%	0.50%	0.47%	0.20%	0.35%	0.37%	0.34%	0.84%	0.25%
Atlanta Falcons	0.40%		0.24%	0.39%	1.07%	0.32%	0.67%	0.74%	0.75%	0.45%	0.51%	0.86%	0.58%	0.91%	0.82%	0.47%
Carolina Panthers	0.41%	0.22%		0.31%	0.74%	0.23%	0.55%	0.63%	0.61%	0.50%	0.33%	0.78%	0.36%	0.54%	0.86%	0.38%
Chicago Bears	0.21%	0.18%	0.13%		0.34%	0.12%	0.20%	0.31%	0.32%	0.32%	0.29%	0.30%	0.19%	0.30%	0.40%	0.18%
Dallas Cowboys	1.39%	2.45%	1.42%	1.58%		1.32%	3.09%	2.24%	4.01%	2.93%	1.25%	3.48%	2.21%	2.75%	5.05%	1.12%
Detroit Lions	0.54%	0.49%	0.30%	0.27%	0.99%		0.56%	0.73%	1.12%	0.69%	0.36%	0.95%	0.60%	0.89%	0.90%	0.41%
Green Bay Packers	1.08%	1.11%	0.62%	0.79%	2.38%	0.47%		1.30%	2.77%	1.37%	1.01%	2.15%	1.18%	1.81%	2.03%	0.93%
Los Angeles Rams	0.41%	0.70%	0.32%	0.44%	0.68%	0.46%	0.62%		1.03%	0.66%	0.46%	0.75%	0.75%	0.65%	1.36%	0.35%
Minnesota Vikings	1.98%	1.64%	1.06%	1.31%	3.56%	1.55%	3.24%	2.53%		1.76%	1.67%	3.27%	2.03%	3.19%	2.82%	1.70%
New Orleans Saints	0.71%	0.84%	0.41%	0.69%	1.22%	0.53%	1.07%	1.28%	1.45%		0.72%	1.47%	1.02%	1.38%	2.11%	0.78%
New York Giants	0.28%	0.46%	0.23%	0.37%	0.48%	0.31%	0.68%	0.43%	0.84%	0.51%		0.59%	0.40%	0.55%	1.18%	0.13%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.47%	2.29%	1.62%	1.56%	4.28%	1.65%	3.24%	2.32%	4.25%	2.68%	1.25%		2.16%	3.19%	4.34%	1.43%
San Francisco 49ers	2.38%	2.62%	1.76%	1.68%	3.57%	1.71%	3.39%	3.45%	3.81%	3.11%	2.16%	3.23%		5.89%	4.77%	2.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.88%	1.54%	0.81%	0.88%	1.69%	0.69%	1.86%	1.35%	2.18%	1.51%	0.75%	1.69%	2.11%		2.54%	0.75%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.55%	1.78%	1.21%	1.26%	3.05%	0.91%	1.58%	2.30%	1.77%	2.55%	1.62%	2.53%	1.78%	3.19%		1.63%
Washington Commanders	0.36%	0.49%	0.25%	0.39%	0.50%	0.31%	0.59%	0.50%	1.10%	0.42%	0.14%	0.64%	0.57%	0.51%	1.17%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		2.81%	1.47%	0.53%	0.28%	0.09%	1.23%	0.73%	2.76%	0.55%	1.05%	1.23%	0.93%	0.31%	0.50%	2.11%
Buffalo Bills	6.98%		6.43%	2.93%	1.10%	0.47%	2.92%	2.69%	7.46%	1.93%	3.59%	4.52%	3.70%	1.05%	2.29%	6.04%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.59%	4.44%		0.83%	0.46%	0.18%	1.57%	0.87%	4.69%	0.72%	1.60%	1.61%	1.41%	0.33%	0.51%	2.73%
Cleveland Browns	0.45%	0.79%	0.38%		0.11%	0.04%	0.25%	0.17%	0.92%	0.08%	0.25%	0.50%	0.30%	0.13%	0.11%	0.53%
Denver Broncos	0.19%	0.17%	0.09%	0.08%			0.09%	0.01%	0.22%	0.04%	0.05%	0.11%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.11%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.11%	0.01%				0.02%	0.01%	0.03%				0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.36%	0.39%	0.27%	0.14%	0.04%	0.02%		0.02%	0.63%	0.13%	0.12%	0.20%	0.20%	0.05%	0.09%	0.19%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.66%	0.80%	0.54%	0.26%	0.05%		0.11%		1.00%	0.14%	0.15%	0.26%	0.27%	0.08%	0.09%	0.27%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.21%	6.98%	6.37%	3.27%	1.16%	0.38%	3.60%	2.63%		1.67%	3.68%	4.06%	3.13%	1.29%	2.22%	6.49%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.33%	0.35%	0.18%	0.15%	0.02%	0.01%	0.13%	0.06%	0.29%		0.08%	0.16%	0.15%	0.05%	0.04%	0.20%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.07%	0.96%	0.60%	0.29%	0.08%	0.04%	0.35%	0.19%	1.24%	0.17%		0.48%	0.60%	0.16%	0.21%	0.57%
Miami Dolphins	0.99%	1.30%	0.70%	0.44%	0.12%	0.07%	0.46%	0.20%	1.11%	0.16%	0.49%		0.29%	0.14%	0.24%	0.66%
New England Patriots	1.12%	1.00%	0.56%	0.20%	0.14%	0.04%	0.29%	0.20%	1.15%	0.17%	0.45%	0.41%		0.15%	0.13%	0.63%
New York Jets	0.19%	0.24%	0.10%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%	0.28%	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%		0.06%	0.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.31%	0.73%	0.28%	0.05%	0.07%	0.03%	0.29%	0.16%	0.83%	0.20%	0.21%	0.41%	0.16%	0.05%		0.49%
Tennessee Titans	1.22%	1.11%	0.84%	0.35%	0.16%		0.26%	0.08%	1.60%	0.24%	0.51%	0.53%	0.51%	0.11%	0.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.20%	0.04%	0.14%	0.03%	0.17%	0.10%	0.04%	0.29%	0.19%	0.09%	0.13%	0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.12%		0.04%	0.03%	0.45%	0.07%	0.22%	0.16%	0.40%	0.08%	0.05%	0.47%	0.27%	0.21%	0.21%	0.06%
Carolina Panthers	0.06%	0.02%		0.05%	0.37%	0.05%	0.15%	0.11%	0.48%	0.06%	0.02%	0.41%	0.38%	0.29%	0.24%	0.07%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.08%	0.03%		0.15%		0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%	0.04%	0.13%	0.17%	0.15%	0.11%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	1.00%	1.21%	0.97%	0.54%		1.22%	2.48%	1.34%	4.02%	1.64%	0.98%	5.88%	3.92%	2.90%	3.71%	1.02%
Detroit Lions	0.10%	0.17%	0.09%	0.01%	0.60%		0.15%	0.19%	0.34%	0.25%	0.10%	0.58%	0.59%	0.40%	0.59%	0.15%
Green Bay Packers	0.29%	0.54%	0.30%	0.06%	1.60%	0.13%		0.32%	0.89%	0.74%	0.22%	1.43%	1.49%	0.90%	1.37%	0.30%
Los Angeles Rams	0.06%	0.12%	0.07%	0.07%	0.39%	0.14%	0.22%		0.52%	0.14%	0.07%	0.44%	0.34%	0.19%	0.47%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	0.51%	0.99%	0.66%	0.28%	2.45%	0.33%	1.24%	1.16%		1.23%	0.44%	2.79%	2.93%	1.89%	2.77%	0.59%
New Orleans Saints	0.12%	0.10%	0.07%	0.11%	0.94%	0.21%	0.41%	0.35%	1.07%		0.11%	1.15%	0.86%	0.51%	0.66%	0.22%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.05%	0.11%	0.04%	0.51%	0.07%	0.20%	0.17%	0.40%	0.20%		0.57%	0.33%	0.26%	0.33%	0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.98%	1.28%	1.02%	0.71%	6.19%	1.33%	2.77%	1.71%	4.65%	2.32%	1.18%		4.60%	2.94%	3.94%	1.19%
San Francisco 49ers	0.83%	1.82%	1.29%	0.69%	5.87%	1.53%	3.69%	1.45%	6.29%	2.66%	1.24%	6.23%		3.02%	5.71%	1.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.19%	0.40%	0.25%	0.29%	1.49%	0.38%	0.84%	0.35%	1.72%	0.53%	0.34%	1.84%	1.13%		1.45%	0.39%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.34%	0.32%	0.08%	0.28%	2.22%	0.55%	1.30%	0.67%	2.36%	0.75%	0.37%	2.27%	1.79%	1.34%		0.46%
Washington Commanders	0.06%	0.09%	0.07%	0.05%	0.45%	0.13%	0.13%	0.18%	0.34%	0.20%	0.09%	0.50%	0.45%	0.23%	0.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.71%	0.62%	0.22%	0.09%	0.01%	0.14%	0.20%	1.77%	0.22%	0.16%	0.30%	0.36%	0.06%	0.15%	0.38%
Buffalo Bills	4.17%		5.28%	1.26%	0.38%	0.04%	0.72%	1.03%	12.96%	0.60%	2.07%	1.40%	1.22%	0.28%	1.02%	2.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.93%	3.54%		0.33%	0.16%	0.03%	0.38%	0.39%	3.76%	0.27%	0.59%	0.66%	0.58%	0.09%	0.23%	0.56%
Cleveland Browns	0.07%	0.38%	0.20%		0.03%		0.06%	0.05%	0.35%	0.03%	0.04%	0.09%	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.01%			0.02%	0.01%	0.02%			0.02%
Houston Texans		0.01%							0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.04%	0.15%	0.07%					0.01%	0.10%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%		0.05%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.16%	0.38%	0.18%	0.05%	0.02%		0.02%		0.48%		0.13%	0.07%	0.07%	0.02%	0.06%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.79%	10.87%	4.52%	1.30%	0.27%	0.10%	0.79%	0.96%		0.44%	1.42%	2.22%	1.76%	0.43%	1.09%	1.93%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.01%	0.14%	0.06%	0.02%			0.02%	0.01%	0.10%			0.03%	0.01%		0.01%	0.04%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.19%	0.49%	0.33%	0.10%		0.01%	0.07%	0.05%	0.48%	0.01%		0.10%	0.11%	0.04%	0.06%	0.18%
Miami Dolphins	0.26%	0.50%	0.14%	0.08%	0.01%		0.04%	0.08%	0.63%	0.07%	0.14%		0.05%		0.08%	0.18%
New England Patriots	0.26%	0.37%	0.27%	0.04%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.67%	0.03%	0.11%	0.08%		0.01%	0.05%	0.20%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.05%	0.03%				0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%		0.01%		0.01%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.38%	0.06%	0.06%	0.02%		0.04%	0.08%	0.43%	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.09%	0.02%		0.10%
Tennessee Titans	0.18%	0.59%	0.24%	0.09%	0.05%			0.04%	0.44%	0.03%	0.05%	0.08%	0.07%	0.06%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals			0.02%		0.08%	0.03%	0.02%			0.06%		0.07%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.13%	0.03%	0.07%	0.04%	0.12%		0.03%	0.15%	0.12%	0.07%	0.10%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers	0.02%			0.05%	0.19%	0.02%	0.09%	0.04%	0.13%	0.05%	0.02%	0.20%	0.15%	0.02%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.02%				0.02%				0.02%	0.02%		0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.29%	0.28%	0.27%	0.17%		0.38%	1.17%	0.48%	2.43%	0.89%	0.39%	3.11%	4.26%	1.44%	2.03%	0.22%
Detroit Lions	0.01%	0.03%		0.02%	0.26%		0.05%	0.04%	0.12%	0.03%	0.07%	0.30%	0.29%	0.17%	0.17%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.10%	0.09%	0.01%	0.71%	0.10%		0.09%	0.30%	0.17%	0.10%	0.81%	0.95%	0.30%	0.38%	0.14%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%	0.15%	0.03%	0.08%		0.08%	0.02%	0.03%	0.12%	0.15%	0.05%	0.08%	0.07%
Minnesota Vikings	0.09%	0.23%	0.15%	0.04%	1.57%	0.25%	0.41%	0.27%		0.42%	0.17%	1.66%	1.66%	0.68%	0.87%	0.20%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	0.39%	0.10%	0.16%	0.08%	0.33%		0.10%	0.34%	0.31%	0.26%	0.19%	0.06%
New York Giants		0.02%	0.03%		0.12%	0.08%	0.07%	0.05%	0.16%	0.05%		0.09%	0.23%	0.06%	0.13%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.23%	0.40%	0.38%	0.25%	3.36%	0.68%	1.44%	0.60%	3.02%	1.04%	0.38%		4.96%	1.51%	2.26%	0.38%
San Francisco 49ers	0.23%	0.65%	0.56%	0.15%	6.00%	0.65%	1.94%	0.51%	3.48%	1.39%	0.69%	6.83%		1.83%	2.75%	0.63%
Seattle Seahawks	0.06%	0.09%	0.08%	0.05%	0.85%	0.14%	0.33%	0.10%	0.52%	0.18%	0.07%	0.96%	0.73%		0.38%	0.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.05%	0.06%	0.06%	1.02%	0.20%	0.31%	0.11%	0.67%	0.12%	0.22%	1.13%	0.88%	0.44%		0.13%
Washington Commanders	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.17%	0.03%	0.12%	0.02%	0.21%	0.02%		0.13%	0.29%	0.06%	0.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals				0.02%			0.01%	0.01%																			0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%	0.06%			0.04%									0.03%				0.01%					0.01%						0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	0.02%	0.04%			0.05%	0.01%			0.46%		0.02%	0.10%							0.01%		0.45%		0.09%	0.02%		0.54%		0.59%	0.18%	0.24%		0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.14%	0.21%			0.22%	0.03%			3.83%		0.46%	1.11%							0.31%		2.13%		0.66%	0.26%		4.65%		5.09%	1.08%	1.34%		0.37%
Carolina Panthers				0.11%			0.05%	0.01%						0.02%		0.06%				0.02%		0.01%									0.02%
Chicago Bears				0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.05%	0.11%			0.09%				1.20%		0.09%	0.35%							0.05%		0.65%		0.25%	0.12%		1.49%		1.80%	0.47%	0.44%		0.13%
Cleveland Browns		0.04%			0.01%				0.08%		0.01%										0.05%		0.03%	0.01%		0.09%		0.18%	0.05%	0.01%		0.02%
Dallas Cowboys			0.68%	2.17%			0.99%	0.14%		0.04%				0.06%	0.14%	2.33%	0.08%	0.32%		0.25%		0.24%			0.05%		0.27%				0.24%
Denver Broncos									0.01%			0.01%									0.02%
Detroit Lions			0.07%	0.12%			0.07%	0.03%						0.01%	0.01%	0.12%		0.01%		0.01%							0.04%				0.06%
Green Bay Packers			0.08%	0.51%			0.21%	0.03%						0.01%	0.05%	0.46%		0.03%		0.08%		0.04%					0.02%				0.02%
Houston Texans																														0.01%
Indianapolis Colts									0.02%			0.02%									0.01%					0.01%		0.04%	0.02%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars									0.12%		0.01%	0.04%							0.04%		0.08%		0.06%			0.12%		0.16%	0.09%	0.02%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.10%	0.27%			0.29%	0.11%			3.43%		0.35%	0.91%							0.21%		1.69%		0.45%	0.21%		4.16%		4.70%	1.11%	1.34%		0.27%
Las Vegas Raiders												0.01%											0.03%			0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.02%
Los Angeles Chargers		0.04%			0.02%	0.01%			0.15%		0.01%	0.04%							0.02%		0.11%		0.05%	0.01%		0.18%		0.16%	0.03%	0.07%
Los Angeles Rams			0.03%	0.10%			0.03%								0.01%	0.05%		0.02%													0.01%
Miami Dolphins		0.01%				0.01%			0.11%		0.02%	0.08%							0.03%		0.09%		0.04%	0.01%		0.19%		0.17%	0.10%	0.02%		0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.29%	0.91%			0.41%	0.03%		0.02%				0.03%	0.07%	0.84%	0.04%	0.17%		0.14%		0.11%			0.02%		0.03%				0.12%
New England Patriots	0.01%				0.01%				0.17%		0.02%	0.05%							0.01%		0.10%		0.03%	0.02%		0.19%		0.36%	0.05%	0.06%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints			0.05%	0.27%			0.11%	0.03%		0.01%					0.01%	0.14%	0.03%	0.01%		0.01%		0.01%					0.01%				0.02%
New York Giants			0.03%	0.12%			0.06%								0.01%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%		0.02%					0.01%				0.01%
New York Jets																							0.01%			0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.75%	2.60%			1.12%	0.17%		0.03%				0.13%	0.20%	2.75%	0.09%	0.24%		0.29%		0.18%			0.04%		0.16%				0.31%
Pittsburgh Steelers						0.01%			0.11%		0.01%	0.04%							0.01%		0.02%		0.01%			0.04%		0.14%	0.02%	0.08%		0.04%
San Francisco 49ers			1.25%	4.57%			1.75%	0.32%		0.02%			0.01%	0.11%	0.30%	4.30%	0.08%	0.44%		0.40%		0.39%			0.10%		0.31%				0.36%
Seattle Seahawks			0.13%	0.40%			0.10%	0.05%						0.02%	0.04%	0.43%	0.01%	0.05%		0.08%		0.06%					0.01%				0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.13%	0.51%			0.23%	0.04%		0.02%					0.06%	0.50%	0.01%	0.01%		0.05%		0.05%			0.02%		0.04%				0.06%
Tennessee Titans		0.01%			0.03%	0.01%			0.12%		0.04%	0.02%							0.01%		0.04%		0.01%	0.02%		0.14%		0.16%	0.01%	0.06%
Washington Commanders			0.06%	0.13%			0.03%	0.01%							0.04%	0.17%				0.01%		0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	75.13%	43.93%	25.04%	Won Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	82.11%	55.77%	29.96%	19.02%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers	78.07%	56.71%	34.30%	17.18%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	64.67%	34.06%	14.01%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals	70.69%	30.48%	14.26%	8.05%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	59.28%	26.99%	12.41%	5.35%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	67.10%	21.40%	9.12%	3.07%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Jacksonville Jaguars	57.78%	14.76%	4.30%	1.94%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Ravens	29.31%	9.35%	3.17%	1.57%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.72%	13.29%	4.73%	1.45%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Chargers	42.22%	10.70%	3.12%	1.29%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Seattle Seahawks	21.93%	7.36%	3.08%	0.90%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	32.90%	9.58%	2.30%	0.59%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	17.89%	3.81%	1.26%	0.54%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Jacksonville Jaguars	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens			29.31%
Buffalo Bills						82.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	70.69%
Jacksonville Jaguars					57.78%
Los Angeles Chargers				42.22%
Miami Dolphins		17.89%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys						59.28%
Minnesota Vikings			67.10%
New York Giants		32.90%
San Francisco 49ers					78.07%
Seattle Seahawks				21.93%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens				1.34%	6.80%	1.21%
Buffalo Bills			36.83%	10.75%		8.19%
Cincinnati Bengals		21.29%		5.30%		3.89%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.62%	3.00%	2.01%		8.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	17.19%			25.63%		18.23%	14.08%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.15%	2.05%	1.37%		6.13%
Miami Dolphins					3.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys		4.57%	3.10%	14.19%	5.13%
Minnesota Vikings	3.72%				13.77%		3.91%
New York Giants	1.28%			7.14%			1.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	16.85%		18.34%			14.57%	14.91%
San Francisco 49ers	10.44%	38.82%					7.45%
Seattle Seahawks				7.36%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		2.31%	1.88%	6.64%	2.46%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens		1.43%		0.42%	0.64%	0.39%	0.29%
Buffalo Bills	3.84%			3.88%	19.25%	2.99%
Cincinnati Bengals				2.24%	9.11%	1.51%	1.40%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.39%	1.20%	0.81%		1.36%		0.54%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.36%	22.15%	14.28%	3.61%		2.53%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.33%	1.03%	0.60%		0.84%		0.32%
Miami Dolphins	0.26%		0.53%	0.31%		0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys		1.88%	1.05%	3.94%	3.93%	1.61%
Minnesota Vikings	1.59%			4.90%		1.55%	1.08%
New York Giants	0.35%			0.46%	0.84%	0.40%	0.25%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.98%	8.67%	1.12%		16.31%		2.98%
San Francisco 49ers	6.79%		4.25%	19.75%			3.51%
Seattle Seahawks	0.87%	1.01%	0.46%				0.74%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.72%	0.40%	1.56%	1.33%	0.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baltimore Ravens				0.18%					0.17%	0.07%	0.43%	0.57%	0.06%	0.09%
Buffalo Bills				2.31%					1.97%	0.52%	6.47%	5.85%	0.68%	1.22%
Cincinnati Bengals				0.90%					0.80%	0.27%	3.01%	2.19%	0.34%	0.54%
Dallas Cowboys	0.18%	1.11%	0.79%		0.34%	2.56%	0.25%	0.12%
Jacksonville Jaguars				0.30%					0.26%	0.08%	0.76%	0.40%	0.02%	0.12%
Kansas City Chiefs				3.17%					2.63%	0.73%	8.67%	7.67%	0.96%	1.21%
Los Angeles Chargers				0.13%					0.15%	0.04%	0.51%	0.29%	0.10%	0.07%
Miami Dolphins				0.07%					0.07%		0.20%	0.15%	0.02%	0.03%
Minnesota Vikings	0.07%	0.86%	0.48%		0.14%	1.36%	0.14%	0.02%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.15%	0.08%		0.06%	0.25%	0.03%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.54%	3.73%	2.01%		0.74%	6.13%	0.59%	0.27%
San Francisco 49ers	0.64%	4.52%	2.52%		0.90%	7.67%	0.72%	0.21%
Seattle Seahawks	0.06%	0.23%	0.13%		0.06%	0.38%	0.02%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.10%	0.34%	0.20%		0.12%	0.54%	0.08%	0.07%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Kansas City Chiefs 25.04% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

34.11%

Win Prob

75.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

50.42%

Win Prob

53.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

34.62%

Win Prob

58.58%

Buffalo Bills 19.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

82.11%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

66.04%

Win Prob

63.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

64.25%

Win Prob

46.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

34.02%

Win Prob

63.43%

San Francisco 49ers 17.18% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

78.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

68.45%

Win Prob

73.82%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

57.58%

Win Prob

54.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

44.64%

Win Prob

50.00%

Philadelphia Eagles 14.01% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

28.36%

Win Prob

71.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

47.89%

Win Prob

45.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

43.75%

Win Prob

41.42%

Cincinnati Bengals 8.05% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.69%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

69.85%

Win Prob

36.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

63.88%

Win Prob

38.95%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

37.39%

Win Prob

59.96%

Dallas Cowboys 5.35% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.28%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

52.58%

Win Prob

45.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

31.75%

Win Prob

44.17%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

47.85%

Win Prob

44.68%

Minnesota Vikings 3.07% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

64.35%

Win Prob

26.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

53.73%

Win Prob

36.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

44.30%

Win Prob

34.09%

Jacksonville Jaguars 1.94% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.78%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

55.08%

Win Prob

24.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

31.63%

Win Prob

27.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

39.18%

Win Prob

50.67%

Baltimore Ravens 1.57% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.31%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

72.73%

Win Prob

28.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

45.11%

Win Prob

27.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

36.31%

Win Prob

47.11%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.45% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.72%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

49.96%

Win Prob

30.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

32.98%

Win Prob

34.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

37.24%

Win Prob

30.86%

Los Angeles Chargers 1.29% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.22%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

57.29%

Win Prob

25.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

33.01%

Win Prob

25.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

39.53%

Win Prob

46.36%

Seattle Seahawks 0.90% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.56%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

32.79%

Win Prob

39.45%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

42.22%

Win Prob

28.36%

New York Giants 0.59% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

74.53%

Win Prob

28.02%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

36.52%

Win Prob

16.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

42.37%

Win Prob

25.51%

Miami Dolphins 0.54% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

17.89%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.30%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

42.06%

Win Prob

27.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

37.04%

Win Prob

42.55%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2022-09-11	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-44	1503.86	1566.36	47.04%	52.07%	-30.15	0-1
2022-09-18	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 29-23	1473.71	1469.08	43.78%	55.33%	+18.09	1-1
2022-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 12-20	1491.80	1529.05	50.67%	48.44%	-19.14	1-2
2022-10-02	@ Carolina Panthers	W 26-16	1472.66	1457.11	45.33%	53.78%	+22.70	2-2
2022-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-20	1495.36	1568.41	45.53%	53.58%	-10.54	2-3
2022-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-19	1484.82	1471.23	45.05%	54.06%	-19.05	2-4
2022-10-20	New Orleans Saints	W 42-34	1465.77	1484.96	53.26%	45.85%	+17.34	3-4
2022-10-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 26-34	1483.11	1553.12	33.63%	65.48%	-12.74	3-5
2022-11-06	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-31	1470.37	1539.57	46.08%	53.03%	-19.48	3-6
2022-11-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-17	1450.89	1476.08	39.61%	59.50%	+25.11	4-6
2022-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-38	1476.00	1559.32	37.81%	61.30%	-26.79	4-7
2022-11-27	Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-25	1449.21	1465.38	53.69%	45.42%	-7.17	4-8
2022-12-12	New England Patriots	L 13-27	1442.04	1520.47	44.76%	54.35%	-22.39	4-9
2022-12-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 15-24	1419.65	1384.42	48.15%	50.96%	-19.30	4-10
2022-12-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-19	1400.35	1489.36	43.26%	55.85%	-10.02	4-11
2023-01-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 19-20	1390.33	1409.82	40.40%	58.72%	-5.41	4-12
2023-01-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-38	1384.92	1674.12	12.55%	86.57%	-8.44	4-13
2022-09-11	New Orleans Saints	L 26-27	1456.12	1528.49	45.63%	53.48%	-6.10	0-1
2022-09-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-31	1450.02	1520.04	33.63%	65.48%	-9.01	0-2
2022-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-23	1441.01	1491.81	36.14%	62.97%	+16.80	1-2
2022-10-02	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1457.81	1516.76	47.55%	51.56%	+11.93	2-2
2022-10-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 15-21	1469.74	1576.46	29.09%	70.03%	-9.56	2-3
2022-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 28-14	1460.18	1576.39	39.47%	59.64%	+29.78	3-3
2022-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-35	1489.96	1549.20	35.03%	64.09%	-19.90	3-4
2022-10-30	Carolina Panthers	W 37-34	1470.06	1432.62	61.18%	37.93%	+8.79	4-4
2022-11-06	Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-20	1478.85	1470.80	57.12%	41.99%	-13.20	4-5
2022-11-10	@ Carolina Panthers	L 15-25	1465.65	1406.23	51.63%	47.48%	-21.80	4-6
2022-11-20	Chicago Bears	W 27-24	1443.85	1431.60	57.71%	41.40%	+9.59	5-6
2022-11-27	@ Washington Commanders	L 13-19	1453.44	1492.92	37.66%	61.46%	-12.35	5-7
2022-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-19	1441.09	1454.78	54.05%	45.07%	-12.50	5-8
2022-12-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 18-21	1428.59	1449.45	40.21%	58.91%	-9.31	5-9
2022-12-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 9-17	1419.28	1562.71	24.93%	74.19%	-9.46	5-10
2023-01-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-19	1409.82	1390.33	58.72%	40.40%	+5.40	6-10
2023-01-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-17	1415.22	1511.96	42.17%	56.94%	+9.13	7-10
2022-09-11	@ New York Jets	W 24-9	1510.80	1421.79	55.85%	43.26%	+22.40	1-0
2022-09-18	Miami Dolphins	L 38-42	1533.20	1536.00	55.59%	43.52%	-14.84	1-1
2022-09-25	@ New England Patriots	W 37-26	1518.36	1515.27	43.56%	55.55%	+24.60	2-1
2022-10-02	Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1542.96	1623.18	44.51%	54.60%	-10.31	2-2
2022-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-17	1532.65	1544.12	54.36%	44.75%	+8.46	3-2
2022-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 20-24	1541.11	1476.10	52.43%	46.68%	-14.00	3-3
2022-10-23	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1527.11	1459.07	65.23%	33.88%	+7.86	4-3
2022-10-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-22	1534.97	1535.59	43.04%	56.08%	+16.74	5-3
2022-11-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-13	1551.71	1497.23	50.92%	48.19%	+24.09	6-3
2022-11-20	Carolina Panthers	W 13-3	1575.80	1428.03	74.65%	24.46%	+10.38	7-3
2022-11-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 27-28	1586.18	1421.73	66.05%	33.06%	-8.81	7-4
2022-12-04	Denver Broncos	W 10-9	1577.37	1394.49	78.19%	20.92%	+2.81	8-4
2022-12-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-14	1580.18	1467.27	59.19%	39.92%	+7.55	9-4
2022-12-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-13	1587.73	1473.98	59.31%	39.81%	-25.02	9-5
2022-12-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-9	1562.71	1419.28	74.19%	24.93%	+9.46	10-5
2023-01-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1572.17	1491.04	66.90%	32.22%	-15.45	10-6
2023-01-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-27	1556.72	1638.31	32.16%	66.95%	-14.30	10-7
2022-09-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-10	1577.23	1552.11	46.70%	52.41%	+32.07	1-0
2022-09-19	Tennessee Titans	W 41-7	1609.30	1518.62	68.09%	31.03%	+24.25	2-0
2022-09-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 19-21	1633.55	1550.84	54.96%	44.16%	-10.37	2-1
2022-10-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1623.18	1542.96	54.60%	44.51%	+10.31	3-1
2022-10-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-3	1633.49	1459.86	77.30%	21.82%	+17.32	4-1
2022-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-20	1650.81	1617.65	47.85%	51.26%	+13.69	5-1
2022-10-30	Green Bay Packers	W 27-17	1664.50	1496.05	76.78%	22.33%	+9.48	6-1
2022-11-06	@ New York Jets	L 17-20	1673.98	1483.85	69.24%	29.87%	-15.99	6-2
2022-11-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 30-33	1657.99	1574.95	67.14%	31.98%	-15.51	6-3
2022-11-20	Cleveland Browns	W 31-23	1642.48	1461.47	73.38%	25.73%	+9.76	7-3
2022-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-25	1652.24	1435.34	72.36%	26.75%	+6.22	8-3
2022-12-01	@ New England Patriots	W 24-10	1658.46	1540.09	59.94%	39.17%	+19.61	9-3
2022-12-11	New York Jets	W 20-12	1678.07	1496.93	78.02%	21.09%	+8.01	10-3
2022-12-17	Miami Dolphins	W 32-29	1686.08	1512.78	77.26%	21.85%	+5.08	11-3
2022-12-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-13	1691.16	1375.10	82.01%	17.10%	+10.78	12-3
2023-01-08	New England Patriots	W 35-23	1701.94	1521.65	77.94%	21.17%	+9.85	13-3
2022-09-11	Cleveland Browns	L 24-26	1456.15	1496.55	50.22%	48.89%	-9.49	0-1
2022-09-18	@ New York Giants	L 16-19	1446.66	1445.22	43.33%	55.79%	-10.04	0-2
2022-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 22-14	1436.62	1514.46	44.85%	54.26%	+20.49	1-2
2022-10-02	Arizona Cardinals	L 16-26	1457.11	1472.66	53.78%	45.33%	-22.70	1-3
2022-10-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 15-37	1434.41	1551.71	39.32%	59.80%	-24.68	1-4
2022-10-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1409.73	1500.08	31.07%	68.04%	-15.58	1-5
2022-10-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-3	1394.15	1574.07	31.12%	67.99%	+38.47	2-5
2022-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 34-37	1432.62	1470.06	37.93%	61.18%	-8.79	2-6
2022-11-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-42	1423.83	1534.28	28.64%	70.47%	-17.60	2-7
2022-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 25-15	1406.23	1465.65	47.48%	51.63%	+21.80	3-7
2022-11-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-13	1428.03	1575.80	24.46%	74.65%	-10.38	3-8
2022-11-27	Denver Broncos	W 23-10	1417.65	1415.11	56.35%	42.77%	+20.62	4-8
2022-12-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-24	1438.27	1531.43	30.72%	68.39%	+22.34	5-8
2022-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-24	1460.61	1459.72	56.12%	43.00%	-21.18	5-9
2022-12-24	Detroit Lions	W 37-23	1439.43	1497.83	47.63%	51.48%	+25.73	6-9
2023-01-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-30	1465.16	1499.38	38.37%	60.74%	-12.58	6-10
2023-01-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 10-7	1452.58	1512.56	34.93%	64.18%	+14.82	7-10
2022-09-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 19-10	1468.14	1528.68	47.32%	51.79%	+20.74	1-0
2022-09-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-27	1488.88	1522.00	38.52%	60.59%	-21.25	1-1
2022-09-25	Houston Texans	W 23-20	1467.63	1431.50	61.00%	38.11%	+8.83	2-1
2022-10-02	@ New York Giants	L 12-20	1476.46	1438.55	48.54%	50.58%	-18.34	2-2
2022-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-29	1458.12	1521.64	34.47%	64.64%	-12.22	2-3
2022-10-13	Washington Commanders	L 7-12	1445.90	1410.77	60.87%	38.25%	-18.15	2-4
2022-10-24	@ New England Patriots	W 33-14	1427.75	1542.61	28.13%	70.98%	+41.27	3-4
2022-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 29-49	1469.02	1569.50	29.83%	69.28%	-17.89	3-5
2022-11-06	Miami Dolphins	L 32-35	1451.13	1503.55	48.49%	50.62%	-11.22	3-6
2022-11-13	Detroit Lions	L 30-31	1439.91	1394.09	62.31%	36.80%	-8.31	3-7
2022-11-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-27	1431.60	1443.85	41.40%	57.71%	-9.60	3-8
2022-11-27	@ New York Jets	L 10-31	1422.00	1486.67	34.32%	64.79%	-21.06	3-9
2022-12-04	Green Bay Packers	L 19-28	1400.94	1453.18	48.51%	50.60%	-19.45	3-10
2022-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-25	1381.49	1650.44	21.30%	77.81%	-6.39	3-11
2022-12-24	Buffalo Bills	L 13-35	1375.10	1691.16	17.10%	82.01%	-10.78	3-12
2023-01-01	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-41	1364.32	1472.11	28.96%	70.15%	-21.62	3-13
2023-01-08	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-29	1342.70	1524.75	30.86%	68.25%	-16.55	3-14
2022-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1523.10	1497.61	59.55%	39.57%	-13.76	0-1
2022-09-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1509.34	1506.20	43.57%	55.55%	-10.09	0-2
2022-09-25	@ New York Jets	W 27-12	1499.25	1408.72	56.06%	43.05%	+22.29	1-2
2022-09-29	Miami Dolphins	W 27-15	1521.54	1561.22	50.32%	48.79%	+22.58	2-2
2022-10-09	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-19	1544.12	1532.65	44.75%	54.36%	-8.46	2-3
2022-10-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-26	1535.66	1498.50	48.43%	50.68%	+13.54	3-3
2022-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-17	1549.20	1489.96	64.09%	35.03%	+19.91	4-3
2022-10-31	@ Cleveland Browns	L 13-32	1569.11	1451.21	59.88%	39.24%	-34.83	4-4
2022-11-06	Carolina Panthers	W 42-21	1534.28	1423.83	70.47%	28.64%	+17.60	5-4
2022-11-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 37-30	1551.88	1447.57	58.00%	41.11%	+14.56	6-4
2022-11-27	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-16	1566.44	1582.32	40.90%	58.22%	+15.53	7-4
2022-12-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1581.97	1665.53	44.04%	55.08%	+12.74	8-4
2022-12-11	Cleveland Browns	W 23-10	1594.71	1488.05	70.02%	29.09%	+14.06	9-4
2022-12-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-23	1608.77	1507.81	57.53%	41.58%	+18.45	10-4
2022-12-24	@ New England Patriots	W 22-18	1627.22	1525.26	57.67%	41.44%	+11.09	11-4
2023-01-08	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-16	1638.31	1556.72	66.95%	32.16%	+14.29	12-4
2022-09-11	@ Carolina Panthers	W 26-24	1496.55	1456.15	48.89%	50.22%	+9.48	1-0
2022-09-18	New York Jets	L 30-31	1506.03	1399.38	70.02%	29.09%	-9.34	1-1
2022-09-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-17	1496.69	1498.12	55.79%	43.33%	+20.07	2-1
2022-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1516.76	1457.81	51.56%	47.55%	-11.92	2-2
2022-10-09	Los Angeles Chargers	L 28-30	1504.84	1479.19	59.57%	39.54%	-11.24	2-3
2022-10-16	New England Patriots	L 15-38	1493.60	1508.08	53.93%	45.18%	-34.53	2-4
2022-10-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-23	1459.07	1527.11	33.88%	65.23%	-7.86	2-5
2022-10-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 32-13	1451.21	1569.11	39.24%	59.88%	+34.82	3-5
2022-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-39	1486.03	1514.77	39.12%	59.99%	-24.56	3-6
2022-11-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-31	1461.47	1642.48	25.73%	73.38%	-9.76	3-7
2022-11-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-17	1451.71	1543.89	42.81%	56.30%	+18.40	4-7
2022-12-04	@ Houston Texans	W 27-14	1470.11	1336.93	61.95%	37.16%	+17.94	5-7
2022-12-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1488.05	1594.71	29.09%	70.02%	-14.07	5-8
2022-12-17	Baltimore Ravens	W 13-3	1473.98	1587.73	39.81%	59.31%	+25.03	6-8
2022-12-24	New Orleans Saints	L 10-17	1499.01	1458.77	61.56%	37.56%	-21.73	6-9
2023-01-01	@ Washington Commanders	W 24-10	1477.28	1468.39	44.38%	54.73%	+27.33	7-9
2023-01-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-28	1504.61	1506.50	42.86%	56.25%	-21.44	7-10
2022-09-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-19	1533.69	1565.44	51.46%	47.65%	-27.49	0-1
2022-09-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1506.20	1509.34	55.55%	43.57%	+10.09	1-1
2022-09-26	@ New York Giants	W 23-16	1516.29	1455.26	51.86%	47.25%	+16.71	2-1
2022-10-02	Washington Commanders	W 25-10	1533.00	1437.77	68.64%	30.47%	+15.82	3-1
2022-10-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 22-10	1548.82	1524.37	46.60%	52.51%	+24.28	4-1
2022-10-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-26	1573.10	1578.96	42.30%	56.81%	-16.97	4-2
2022-10-23	Detroit Lions	W 24-6	1556.13	1399.07	75.62%	23.49%	+13.37	5-2
2022-10-30	Chicago Bears	W 49-29	1569.50	1469.02	69.28%	29.83%	+17.89	6-2
2022-11-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-31	1587.39	1467.28	60.18%	38.93%	-13.91	6-3
2022-11-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 40-3	1573.48	1590.46	40.74%	58.37%	+47.38	7-3
2022-11-24	New York Giants	W 28-20	1620.86	1463.51	75.65%	23.46%	+8.90	8-3
2022-12-04	Indianapolis Colts	W 54-19	1629.76	1452.26	77.67%	21.44%	+17.03	9-3
2022-12-11	Houston Texans	W 27-23	1646.79	1318.99	88.81%	10.30%	+2.78	10-3
2022-12-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 34-40	1649.57	1437.85	71.77%	27.34%	-23.45	10-4
2022-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 40-34	1626.12	1656.84	51.61%	47.50%	+15.55	11-4
2022-12-29	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-13	1641.67	1470.16	66.94%	32.17%	+16.13	12-4
2023-01-08	@ Washington Commanders	L 6-26	1657.80	1441.05	72.34%	26.77%	-43.16	12-5
2022-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-17	1475.29	1513.42	37.84%	61.27%	-5.07	0-1
2022-09-18	Houston Texans	W 16-9	1470.22	1445.55	59.43%	39.68%	+14.05	1-1
2022-09-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 11-10	1484.27	1534.62	48.79%	50.32%	+6.72	2-1
2022-10-02	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 23-32	1490.99	1443.95	49.85%	49.26%	-19.97	2-2
2022-10-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 9-12	1471.02	1484.59	54.06%	45.05%	-12.50	2-3
2022-10-17	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 16-19	1458.52	1490.43	38.69%	60.43%	-8.97	2-4
2022-10-23	New York Jets	L 9-16	1449.55	1482.40	51.30%	47.81%	-18.13	2-5
2022-10-30	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-17	1431.42	1425.24	50.45%	48.67%	+13.01	3-5
2022-11-13	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-17	1444.43	1553.41	28.82%	70.29%	-10.23	3-6
2022-11-20	Las Vegas Raiders	L 16-22	1434.20	1416.93	58.41%	40.70%	-19.09	3-7
2022-11-27	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-23	1415.11	1417.65	42.77%	56.35%	-20.62	3-8
2022-12-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 9-10	1394.49	1577.37	20.92%	78.19%	-2.81	3-9
2022-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-34	1391.68	1652.80	22.06%	77.05%	-7.26	3-10
2022-12-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-15	1384.42	1419.65	50.96%	48.15%	+19.30	4-10
2022-12-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-51	1403.72	1405.06	42.93%	56.18%	-34.92	4-11
2023-01-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1368.80	1676.12	11.45%	87.67%	-2.67	4-12
2023-01-08	Los Angeles Chargers	W 31-28	1366.13	1532.05	32.87%	66.24%	+15.30	5-12
2022-09-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 35-38	1436.02	1494.21	47.66%	51.45%	-11.03	0-1
2022-09-18	Washington Commanders	W 36-27	1424.99	1483.09	47.67%	51.44%	+20.61	1-1
2022-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-28	1445.60	1501.22	35.50%	63.61%	-9.51	1-2
2022-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 45-48	1436.09	1475.01	50.43%	48.68%	-11.67	1-3
2022-10-09	@ New England Patriots	L 0-29	1424.42	1482.72	35.15%	63.96%	-25.35	1-4
2022-10-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-24	1399.07	1556.13	23.49%	75.62%	-13.37	1-5
2022-10-30	Miami Dolphins	L 27-31	1385.70	1492.64	40.75%	58.36%	-10.91	1-6
2022-11-06	Green Bay Packers	W 15-9	1374.79	1486.57	40.08%	59.03%	+19.30	2-6
2022-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-30	1394.09	1439.91	36.80%	62.31%	+8.31	3-6
2022-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 31-18	1402.40	1496.45	30.61%	68.50%	+32.94	4-6
2022-11-24	Buffalo Bills	L 25-28	1435.34	1652.24	26.75%	72.36%	-6.21	4-7
2022-12-04	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 40-14	1429.13	1430.54	55.79%	43.32%	+29.54	5-7
2022-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-23	1458.67	1569.79	40.17%	58.94%	+26.09	6-7
2022-12-18	@ New York Jets	W 20-17	1484.76	1488.93	42.54%	56.58%	+13.07	7-7
2022-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	L 23-37	1497.83	1439.43	51.48%	47.63%	-25.72	7-8
2023-01-01	Chicago Bears	W 41-10	1472.11	1364.32	70.15%	28.96%	+21.62	8-8
2023-01-08	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-16	1493.73	1541.34	36.57%	62.55%	+16.69	9-8
2022-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-23	1548.78	1499.89	50.12%	49.00%	-26.78	0-1
2022-09-18	Chicago Bears	W 27-10	1522.00	1488.88	60.59%	38.52%	+21.26	1-1
2022-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-12	1543.26	1613.06	33.66%	65.46%	+12.35	2-1
2022-10-02	New England Patriots	W 27-24	1555.61	1490.68	64.83%	34.28%	+7.95	3-1
2022-10-09	New York Giants	L 22-27	1563.56	1456.89	64.40%	34.71%	-19.21	3-2
2022-10-16	New York Jets	L 10-27	1544.35	1444.33	69.22%	29.89%	-38.07	3-3
2022-10-23	@ Washington Commanders	L 21-23	1506.28	1428.92	54.20%	44.92%	-10.23	3-4
2022-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-27	1496.05	1664.50	22.33%	76.78%	-9.48	3-5
2022-11-06	@ Detroit Lions	L 9-15	1486.57	1374.79	59.03%	40.08%	-19.29	3-6
2022-11-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-28	1467.28	1587.39	38.93%	60.18%	+13.91	4-6
2022-11-17	Tennessee Titans	L 17-27	1481.19	1563.64	44.19%	54.92%	-18.69	4-7
2022-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 33-40	1462.50	1593.87	26.25%	72.86%	-9.32	4-8
2022-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-19	1453.18	1400.94	50.60%	48.51%	+19.45	5-8
2022-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-12	1472.63	1421.83	62.97%	36.14%	+16.76	6-8
2022-12-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 26-20	1489.39	1507.70	40.56%	58.55%	+19.14	7-8
2023-01-01	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-17	1508.53	1557.56	48.98%	50.14%	+32.81	8-8
2023-01-08	Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1541.34	1493.73	62.55%	36.57%	-16.69	8-9
2022-09-11	Indianapolis Colts	T 20-20	1445.17	1530.94	43.72%	55.39%	+0.38	0-0
2022-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-16	1445.55	1470.22	39.68%	59.43%	-14.05	0-1
2022-09-25	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-23	1431.50	1467.63	38.11%	61.00%	-8.83	0-2
2022-10-02	Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-34	1422.67	1457.65	51.00%	48.11%	-21.54	0-3
2022-10-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 13-6	1401.13	1477.87	32.77%	66.34%	+23.41	1-3
2022-10-23	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 20-38	1424.54	1460.69	38.11%	61.00%	-21.64	1-4
2022-10-30	Tennessee Titans	L 10-17	1402.90	1548.58	35.49%	63.62%	-12.58	1-5
2022-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-29	1390.32	1610.89	26.34%	72.77%	-12.24	1-6
2022-11-13	@ New York Giants	L 16-24	1378.08	1485.45	29.01%	70.10%	-11.00	1-7
2022-11-20	Washington Commanders	L 10-23	1367.08	1473.21	40.86%	58.25%	-19.71	1-8
2022-11-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 15-30	1347.37	1539.33	20.07%	79.04%	-10.44	1-9
2022-12-04	Cleveland Browns	L 14-27	1336.93	1470.11	37.16%	61.95%	-17.94	1-10
2022-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-27	1318.99	1646.79	10.30%	88.81%	-2.77	1-11
2022-12-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-30	1316.22	1660.05	14.96%	84.16%	-4.93	1-12
2022-12-24	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-14	1311.29	1493.46	20.99%	78.12%	+23.31	2-12
2023-01-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-31	1334.60	1492.28	33.93%	65.18%	-24.05	2-13
2023-01-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 32-31	1310.55	1376.31	34.18%	64.93%	+8.66	3-13
2022-09-11	@ Houston Texans	T 20-20	1530.94	1445.17	55.39%	43.72%	-0.39	0-0
2022-09-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-24	1530.55	1406.16	60.76%	38.35%	-39.71	0-1
2022-09-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1490.84	1603.83	39.91%	59.20%	+13.68	1-1
2022-10-02	Tennessee Titans	L 17-24	1504.52	1501.40	56.43%	42.68%	-19.93	1-2
2022-10-06	@ Denver Broncos	W 12-9	1484.59	1471.02	45.05%	54.06%	+12.50	2-2
2022-10-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-27	1497.09	1454.46	61.88%	37.23%	+13.19	3-2
2022-10-23	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-19	1510.28	1532.51	40.02%	59.10%	-16.06	3-3
2022-10-30	Washington Commanders	L 16-17	1494.22	1439.16	63.54%	35.58%	-8.48	3-4
2022-11-06	@ New England Patriots	L 3-26	1485.74	1518.01	38.64%	60.48%	-24.80	3-5
2022-11-13	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 27-20	1460.94	1435.43	46.76%	52.36%	+18.50	4-5
2022-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-17	1479.44	1588.46	40.46%	58.65%	-5.42	4-6
2022-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1474.02	1433.01	61.66%	37.45%	-21.76	4-7
2022-12-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-54	1452.26	1629.76	21.44%	77.67%	-17.03	4-8
2022-12-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 36-39	1435.23	1543.71	28.88%	70.23%	-6.71	4-9
2022-12-26	Los Angeles Chargers	L 3-20	1428.52	1485.14	47.88%	51.23%	-26.38	4-10
2023-01-01	@ New York Giants	L 10-38	1402.14	1450.56	36.46%	62.66%	-25.83	4-11
2023-01-08	Houston Texans	L 31-32	1376.31	1310.55	64.93%	34.18%	-8.66	4-12
2022-09-11	@ Washington Commanders	L 22-28	1417.90	1471.35	35.79%	63.32%	-11.74	0-1
2022-09-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-0	1406.16	1530.55	38.35%	60.76%	+39.71	1-1
2022-09-25	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 38-10	1445.87	1502.66	35.35%	63.76%	+45.01	2-1
2022-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-29	1490.88	1555.40	34.34%	64.77%	-13.01	2-2
2022-10-09	Houston Texans	L 6-13	1477.87	1401.13	66.34%	32.77%	-23.41	2-3
2022-10-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-34	1454.46	1497.09	37.23%	61.88%	-13.19	2-4
2022-10-23	New York Giants	L 17-23	1441.27	1490.11	49.00%	50.11%	-16.03	2-5
2022-10-30	Denver Broncos	L 17-21	1425.24	1431.42	48.67%	50.45%	-13.01	2-6
2022-11-06	Las Vegas Raiders	W 27-20	1412.23	1452.72	50.21%	48.91%	+17.29	3-6
2022-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-27	1429.52	1640.96	18.33%	80.78%	-7.79	3-7
2022-11-27	Baltimore Ravens	W 28-27	1421.73	1586.18	33.06%	66.05%	+8.81	4-7
2022-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-40	1430.54	1429.13	43.32%	55.79%	-29.54	4-8
2022-12-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 36-22	1401.00	1541.30	25.26%	73.85%	+36.85	5-8
2022-12-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 40-34	1437.85	1649.57	27.34%	71.77%	+23.45	6-8
2022-12-22	@ New York Jets	W 19-3	1461.30	1475.85	41.08%	58.03%	+30.98	7-8
2023-01-01	@ Houston Texans	W 31-3	1492.28	1334.60	65.18%	33.93%	+24.05	8-8
2023-01-07	Tennessee Titans	W 20-16	1516.33	1454.03	64.48%	34.63%	+9.28	9-8
2022-09-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 44-21	1566.36	1503.86	52.07%	47.04%	+30.15	1-0
2022-09-15	Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-24	1596.51	1509.98	67.57%	31.54%	+7.32	2-0
2022-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1603.83	1490.84	59.20%	39.91%	-13.68	2-1
2022-10-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-31	1590.15	1600.71	41.64%	57.47%	+24.25	3-1
2022-10-10	Las Vegas Raiders	W 30-29	1614.40	1463.93	74.94%	24.18%	+3.25	4-1
2022-10-16	Buffalo Bills	L 20-24	1617.65	1650.81	51.26%	47.85%	-13.69	4-2
2022-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 44-23	1603.96	1546.62	51.33%	47.78%	+29.26	5-2
2022-11-06	Tennessee Titans	W 20-17	1633.22	1561.15	65.75%	33.37%	+7.74	6-2
2022-11-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-17	1640.96	1429.52	80.78%	18.33%	+7.79	7-2
2022-11-20	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 30-27	1648.75	1472.71	67.51%	31.60%	+7.33	8-2
2022-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 26-10	1656.08	1435.77	81.53%	17.58%	+9.45	9-2
2022-12-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1665.53	1581.97	55.08%	44.04%	-12.73	9-3
2022-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-28	1652.80	1391.68	77.05%	22.06%	+7.25	10-3
2022-12-18	@ Houston Texans	W 30-24	1660.05	1316.22	84.16%	14.96%	+4.93	11-3
2022-12-24	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-10	1664.98	1494.95	76.94%	22.17%	+11.14	12-3
2023-01-01	Denver Broncos	W 27-24	1676.12	1368.80	87.67%	11.45%	+2.66	13-3
2023-01-07	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 31-13	1678.78	1468.52	71.61%	27.51%	+15.65	14-3
2022-09-11	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 19-24	1481.29	1497.77	40.81%	58.30%	-12.21	0-1
2022-09-18	Arizona Cardinals	L 23-29	1469.08	1473.71	55.33%	43.78%	-18.10	0-2
2022-09-25	@ Tennessee Titans	L 22-24	1450.98	1494.37	37.13%	61.98%	-7.03	0-3
2022-10-02	Denver Broncos	W 32-23	1443.95	1490.99	49.26%	49.85%	+19.98	1-3
2022-10-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 29-30	1463.93	1614.40	24.18%	74.94%	-3.24	1-4
2022-10-23	Houston Texans	W 38-20	1460.69	1424.54	61.00%	38.11%	+21.64	2-4
2022-10-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-24	1482.33	1467.62	45.21%	53.90%	-29.61	2-5
2022-11-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-27	1452.72	1412.23	48.91%	50.21%	-17.29	2-6
2022-11-13	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-27	1435.43	1460.94	52.36%	46.76%	-18.50	2-7
2022-11-20	@ Denver Broncos	W 22-16	1416.93	1434.20	40.70%	58.41%	+19.10	3-7
2022-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 40-34	1436.03	1542.91	29.07%	70.05%	+22.88	4-7
2022-12-04	Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-20	1458.91	1472.55	54.05%	45.06%	+15.94	5-7
2022-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-17	1474.85	1414.92	51.70%	47.41%	-6.91	5-8
2022-12-18	New England Patriots	W 30-24	1467.94	1542.86	45.26%	53.85%	+17.61	6-8
2022-12-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-13	1485.55	1480.90	43.78%	55.33%	-10.14	6-9
2023-01-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 34-37	1475.41	1667.22	29.67%	69.44%	-6.89	6-10
2023-01-07	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-31	1468.52	1678.78	27.51%	71.61%	-15.65	6-11
2022-09-11	Las Vegas Raiders	W 24-19	1497.77	1481.29	58.30%	40.81%	+12.21	1-0
2022-09-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1509.98	1596.51	31.54%	67.57%	-7.32	1-1
2022-09-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-38	1502.66	1445.87	63.76%	35.35%	-45.01	1-2
2022-10-02	@ Houston Texans	W 34-24	1457.65	1422.67	48.11%	51.00%	+21.54	2-2
2022-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns	W 30-28	1479.19	1504.84	39.54%	59.57%	+11.24	3-2
2022-10-17	Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1490.43	1458.52	60.43%	38.69%	+8.96	4-2
2022-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	L 23-37	1499.39	1490.28	57.27%	41.84%	-28.59	4-3
2022-11-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1470.80	1478.85	41.99%	57.12%	+13.20	5-3
2022-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-22	1484.00	1548.04	34.40%	64.71%	-11.29	5-4
2022-11-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-30	1472.71	1648.75	31.60%	67.51%	-7.33	5-5
2022-11-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 25-24	1465.38	1449.21	45.42%	53.69%	+7.17	6-5
2022-12-04	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 20-27	1472.55	1458.91	45.06%	54.05%	-15.94	6-6
2022-12-11	Miami Dolphins	W 23-17	1456.61	1530.33	45.43%	53.68%	+17.55	7-6
2022-12-18	Tennessee Titans	W 17-14	1474.16	1504.45	51.67%	47.44%	+10.98	8-6
2022-12-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 20-3	1485.14	1428.52	51.23%	47.88%	+26.38	9-6
2023-01-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-10	1511.52	1439.99	65.68%	33.43%	+20.53	10-6
2023-01-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 28-31	1532.05	1366.13	66.24%	32.87%	-15.30	10-7
2022-09-08	Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1552.11	1577.23	52.41%	46.70%	-32.07	0-1
2022-09-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-27	1520.04	1450.02	65.48%	33.63%	+9.01	1-1
2022-09-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-12	1529.05	1491.80	48.44%	50.67%	+19.14	2-1
2022-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 9-24	1548.19	1527.89	46.01%	53.10%	-23.82	2-2
2022-10-09	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-22	1524.37	1548.82	52.51%	46.60%	-24.29	2-3
2022-10-16	Carolina Panthers	W 24-10	1500.08	1409.73	68.04%	31.07%	+15.58	3-3
2022-10-30	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-31	1515.66	1517.36	55.75%	43.36%	-30.68	3-4
2022-11-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-16	1484.98	1518.86	38.42%	60.69%	-8.90	3-5
2022-11-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-27	1476.08	1450.89	59.50%	39.61%	-25.11	3-6
2022-11-20	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-27	1450.97	1452.11	42.96%	56.15%	-15.20	3-7
2022-11-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-26	1435.77	1656.08	17.58%	81.53%	-9.45	3-8
2022-12-04	Seattle Seahawks	L 23-27	1426.32	1520.03	42.60%	56.51%	-11.40	3-9
2022-12-08	Las Vegas Raiders	W 17-16	1414.92	1474.85	47.41%	51.70%	+6.91	4-9
2022-12-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 12-24	1421.83	1472.63	36.14%	62.97%	-16.77	4-10
2022-12-25	Denver Broncos	W 51-14	1405.06	1403.72	56.18%	42.93%	+34.93	5-10
2023-01-01	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-31	1439.99	1511.52	33.43%	65.68%	-20.52	5-11
2023-01-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-19	1419.47	1504.64	31.71%	67.40%	-7.37	5-12
2022-09-11	New England Patriots	W 20-7	1514.61	1523.42	54.74%	44.37%	+21.39	1-0
2022-09-18	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 42-38	1536.00	1533.20	43.52%	55.59%	+14.84	2-0
2022-09-25	Buffalo Bills	W 21-19	1550.84	1633.55	44.16%	54.96%	+10.38	3-0
2022-09-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 15-27	1561.22	1521.54	48.79%	50.32%	-22.58	3-1
2022-10-09	@ New York Jets	L 17-40	1538.64	1404.62	62.07%	37.05%	-39.71	3-2
2022-10-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-24	1498.93	1533.86	51.00%	48.11%	-19.27	3-3
2022-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-10	1479.66	1454.48	59.50%	39.61%	+12.98	4-3
2022-10-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-27	1492.64	1385.70	58.36%	40.75%	+10.91	5-3
2022-11-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-32	1503.55	1451.13	50.62%	48.49%	+11.22	6-3
2022-11-13	Cleveland Browns	W 39-17	1514.77	1486.03	59.99%	39.12%	+24.56	7-3
2022-11-27	Houston Texans	W 30-15	1539.33	1347.37	79.04%	20.07%	+10.44	8-3
2022-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-33	1549.77	1599.49	36.28%	62.83%	-19.44	8-4
2022-12-11	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-23	1530.33	1456.61	53.68%	45.43%	-17.55	8-5
2022-12-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 29-32	1512.78	1686.08	21.85%	77.26%	-5.08	8-6
2022-12-25	Green Bay Packers	L 20-26	1507.70	1489.39	58.55%	40.56%	-19.14	8-7
2023-01-01	@ New England Patriots	L 21-23	1488.56	1514.17	39.55%	59.56%	-7.48	8-8
2023-01-08	New York Jets	W 11-6	1481.08	1424.05	63.79%	35.32%	+10.57	9-8
2022-09-11	Green Bay Packers	W 23-7	1499.89	1548.78	49.00%	50.12%	+26.77	1-0
2022-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-24	1526.66	1505.25	46.17%	52.94%	-25.44	1-1
2022-09-25	Detroit Lions	W 28-24	1501.22	1445.60	63.61%	35.50%	+9.51	2-1
2022-10-02	@ New Orleans Saints	W 28-25	1510.73	1493.97	51.96%	47.15%	+10.91	3-1
2022-10-09	Chicago Bears	W 29-22	1521.64	1458.12	64.64%	34.47%	+12.22	4-1
2022-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-16	1533.86	1498.93	48.11%	51.00%	+19.26	5-1
2022-10-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-26	1553.12	1483.11	65.48%	33.63%	+12.75	6-1
2022-11-06	@ Washington Commanders	W 20-17	1565.87	1447.63	59.92%	39.19%	+9.08	7-1
2022-11-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 33-30	1574.95	1657.99	31.98%	67.14%	+15.51	8-1
2022-11-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-40	1590.46	1573.48	58.37%	40.74%	-47.37	8-2
2022-11-24	New England Patriots	W 33-26	1543.09	1555.99	54.16%	44.95%	+15.90	9-2
2022-12-04	New York Jets	W 27-22	1558.99	1507.74	63.03%	36.08%	+10.80	10-2
2022-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-34	1569.79	1458.67	58.94%	40.17%	-26.08	10-3
2022-12-17	Indianapolis Colts	W 39-36	1543.71	1435.23	70.23%	28.88%	+6.70	11-3
2022-12-24	New York Giants	W 27-24	1550.41	1457.71	68.33%	30.78%	+7.15	12-3
2023-01-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-41	1557.56	1508.53	50.14%	48.98%	-32.81	12-4
2023-01-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 29-13	1524.75	1342.70	68.25%	30.86%	+16.55	13-4
2022-09-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-20	1523.42	1514.61	44.37%	54.74%	-21.39	0-1
2022-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1502.03	1511.37	41.81%	57.30%	+13.24	1-1
2022-09-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 26-37	1515.27	1518.36	55.55%	43.56%	-24.59	1-2
2022-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-27	1490.68	1555.61	34.28%	64.83%	-7.96	1-3
2022-10-09	Detroit Lions	W 29-0	1482.72	1424.42	63.96%	35.15%	+25.36	2-3
2022-10-16	@ Cleveland Browns	W 38-15	1508.08	1493.60	45.18%	53.93%	+34.53	3-3
2022-10-24	Chicago Bears	L 14-33	1542.61	1427.75	70.98%	28.13%	-41.27	3-4
2022-10-30	@ New York Jets	W 22-17	1501.34	1500.52	43.24%	55.87%	+16.67	4-4
2022-11-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-3	1518.01	1485.74	60.48%	38.64%	+24.80	5-4
2022-11-20	New York Jets	W 10-3	1542.81	1499.84	61.92%	37.19%	+13.18	6-4
2022-11-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 26-33	1555.99	1543.09	44.95%	54.16%	-15.90	6-5
2022-12-01	Buffalo Bills	L 10-24	1540.09	1658.46	39.17%	59.94%	-19.62	6-6
2022-12-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-13	1520.47	1442.04	54.35%	44.76%	+22.39	7-6
2022-12-18	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 24-30	1542.86	1467.94	53.85%	45.26%	-17.60	7-7
2022-12-24	Cincinnati Bengals	L 18-22	1525.26	1627.22	41.44%	57.67%	-11.09	7-8
2023-01-01	Miami Dolphins	W 23-21	1514.17	1488.56	59.56%	39.55%	+7.48	8-8
2023-01-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-35	1521.65	1701.94	21.17%	77.94%	-9.84	8-9
2022-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-26	1528.49	1456.12	53.48%	45.63%	+6.10	1-0
2022-09-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1534.59	1592.93	47.64%	51.47%	-20.13	1-1
2022-09-25	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-22	1514.46	1436.62	54.26%	44.85%	-20.49	1-2
2022-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	L 25-28	1493.97	1510.73	47.15%	51.96%	-10.91	1-3
2022-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 39-32	1483.06	1486.67	55.48%	43.63%	+15.44	2-3
2022-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	L 26-30	1498.50	1535.66	50.68%	48.43%	-13.54	2-4
2022-10-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 34-42	1484.96	1465.77	45.85%	53.26%	-17.34	2-5
2022-10-30	Las Vegas Raiders	W 24-0	1467.62	1482.33	53.90%	45.21%	+29.61	3-5
2022-11-07	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-27	1497.23	1551.71	48.19%	50.92%	-24.09	3-6
2022-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-20	1473.14	1426.54	49.79%	49.33%	-21.03	3-7
2022-11-20	Los Angeles Rams	W 27-20	1452.11	1450.97	56.15%	42.96%	+15.20	4-7
2022-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-13	1467.31	1586.11	27.67%	71.44%	-13.38	4-8
2022-12-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-17	1453.93	1525.49	33.43%	65.68%	-4.48	4-9
2022-12-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-18	1449.45	1428.59	58.91%	40.21%	+9.32	5-9
2022-12-24	@ Cleveland Browns	W 17-10	1458.77	1499.01	37.56%	61.56%	+21.73	6-9
2023-01-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1480.50	1641.29	23.10%	76.01%	+32.06	7-9
2023-01-08	Carolina Panthers	L 7-10	1512.56	1452.58	64.18%	34.93%	-14.83	7-10
2022-09-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 21-20	1436.13	1527.72	30.91%	68.20%	+9.09	1-0
2022-09-18	Carolina Panthers	W 19-16	1445.22	1446.66	55.79%	43.33%	+10.04	2-0
2022-09-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-23	1455.26	1516.29	47.25%	51.86%	-16.71	2-1
2022-10-02	Chicago Bears	W 20-12	1438.55	1476.46	50.58%	48.54%	+18.34	3-1
2022-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-22	1456.89	1563.56	34.71%	64.40%	+19.21	4-1
2022-10-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-20	1476.10	1541.11	46.68%	52.43%	+14.01	5-1
2022-10-23	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1490.11	1441.27	50.11%	49.00%	+16.03	6-1
2022-10-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-27	1506.14	1518.88	41.33%	57.78%	-20.69	6-2
2022-11-13	Houston Texans	W 24-16	1485.45	1378.08	70.10%	29.01%	+11.00	7-2
2022-11-20	Detroit Lions	L 18-31	1496.45	1402.40	68.50%	30.61%	-32.94	7-3
2022-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-28	1463.51	1620.86	23.46%	75.65%	-8.90	7-4
2022-12-04	Washington Commanders	T 20-20	1454.61	1505.27	48.74%	50.37%	+0.05	7-4
2022-12-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-48	1454.66	1628.67	31.85%	67.26%	-21.77	7-5
2022-12-18	@ Washington Commanders	W 20-12	1432.89	1505.22	33.33%	65.78%	+24.82	8-5
2022-12-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1457.71	1550.41	30.78%	68.33%	-7.15	8-6
2023-01-01	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-10	1450.56	1402.14	62.66%	36.46%	+25.84	9-6
2023-01-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-22	1476.40	1609.22	26.09%	73.03%	-8.58	9-7
2022-09-11	Baltimore Ravens	L 9-24	1421.79	1510.80	43.26%	55.85%	-22.41	0-1
2022-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-30	1399.38	1506.03	29.09%	70.02%	+9.34	1-1
2022-09-25	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-27	1408.72	1499.25	43.05%	56.06%	-22.30	1-2
2022-10-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1386.42	1478.05	30.91%	68.20%	+18.20	2-2
2022-10-09	Miami Dolphins	W 40-17	1404.62	1538.64	37.05%	62.07%	+39.71	3-2
2022-10-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-10	1444.33	1544.35	29.89%	69.22%	+38.07	4-2
2022-10-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-9	1482.40	1449.55	47.81%	51.30%	+18.12	5-2
2022-10-30	New England Patriots	L 17-22	1500.52	1501.34	55.87%	43.24%	-16.67	5-3
2022-11-06	Buffalo Bills	W 20-17	1483.85	1673.98	29.87%	69.24%	+15.99	6-3
2022-11-20	@ New England Patriots	L 3-10	1499.84	1542.81	37.19%	61.92%	-13.17	6-4
2022-11-27	Chicago Bears	W 31-10	1486.67	1422.00	64.79%	34.32%	+21.07	7-4
2022-12-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 22-27	1507.74	1558.99	36.08%	63.03%	-10.81	7-5
2022-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-20	1496.93	1678.07	21.09%	78.02%	-8.00	7-6
2022-12-18	Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1488.93	1484.76	56.58%	42.54%	-13.08	7-7
2022-12-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-19	1475.85	1461.30	58.03%	41.08%	-30.98	7-8
2023-01-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-23	1444.87	1483.81	37.73%	61.38%	-20.82	7-9
2023-01-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-11	1424.05	1481.08	35.32%	63.79%	-10.58	7-10
2022-09-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-35	1494.21	1436.02	51.45%	47.66%	+11.04	1-0
2022-09-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-7	1505.25	1526.66	52.94%	46.17%	+25.44	2-0
2022-09-25	@ Washington Commanders	W 24-8	1530.69	1462.48	52.89%	46.22%	+24.71	3-0
2022-10-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 29-21	1555.40	1490.88	64.77%	34.34%	+13.01	4-0
2022-10-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1568.41	1495.36	53.58%	45.53%	+10.55	5-0
2022-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-17	1578.96	1573.10	56.81%	42.30%	+16.97	6-0
2022-10-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-13	1595.93	1441.49	75.35%	23.76%	+14.96	7-0
2022-11-03	@ Houston Texans	W 29-17	1610.89	1390.32	72.77%	26.34%	+12.24	8-0
2022-11-14	Washington Commanders	L 21-32	1623.13	1438.55	78.35%	20.76%	-34.67	8-1
2022-11-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-16	1588.46	1479.44	58.65%	40.46%	+5.41	9-1
2022-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 40-33	1593.87	1462.50	72.86%	26.25%	+9.32	10-1
2022-12-04	Tennessee Titans	W 35-10	1603.19	1566.78	61.04%	38.07%	+25.48	11-1
2022-12-11	@ New York Giants	W 48-22	1628.67	1454.66	67.26%	31.85%	+21.77	12-1
2022-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 25-20	1650.44	1381.49	77.81%	21.30%	+6.40	13-1
2022-12-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 34-40	1656.84	1626.12	47.50%	51.61%	-15.55	13-2
2023-01-01	New Orleans Saints	L 10-20	1641.29	1480.50	76.01%	23.10%	-32.07	13-3
2023-01-08	New York Giants	W 22-16	1609.22	1476.40	73.03%	26.09%	+8.58	14-3
2022-09-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1497.61	1523.10	39.57%	59.55%	+13.76	1-0
2022-09-18	New England Patriots	L 14-17	1511.37	1502.03	57.30%	41.81%	-13.25	1-1
2022-09-22	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-29	1498.12	1496.69	43.33%	55.79%	-20.07	1-2
2022-10-02	New York Jets	L 20-24	1478.05	1386.42	68.20%	30.91%	-18.19	1-3
2022-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-38	1459.86	1633.49	21.82%	77.30%	-17.33	1-4
2022-10-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-18	1442.53	1586.01	35.78%	63.33%	+11.95	2-4
2022-10-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-16	1454.48	1479.66	39.61%	59.50%	-12.99	2-5
2022-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-35	1441.49	1595.93	23.76%	75.35%	-14.95	2-6
2022-11-13	New Orleans Saints	W 20-10	1426.54	1473.14	49.33%	49.79%	+21.03	3-6
2022-11-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-37	1447.57	1551.88	41.11%	58.00%	-14.56	3-7
2022-11-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-17	1433.01	1474.02	37.45%	61.66%	+21.77	4-7
2022-12-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-16	1454.78	1441.09	45.07%	54.05%	+12.49	5-7
2022-12-11	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-16	1467.27	1580.18	39.92%	59.19%	-7.55	5-8
2022-12-18	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-16	1459.72	1460.61	43.00%	56.12%	+21.18	6-8
2022-12-24	Las Vegas Raiders	W 13-10	1480.90	1485.55	55.33%	43.78%	+10.14	7-8
2023-01-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 16-13	1491.04	1572.17	32.22%	66.90%	+15.46	8-8
2023-01-08	Cleveland Browns	W 28-14	1506.50	1504.61	56.25%	42.86%	+21.45	9-8
2022-09-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-19	1528.68	1468.14	51.79%	47.32%	-20.74	0-1
2022-09-18	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-7	1507.94	1518.49	54.49%	44.62%	+26.68	1-1
2022-09-25	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-11	1534.62	1484.27	50.32%	48.79%	-6.73	1-2
2022-10-03	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-9	1527.89	1548.19	53.10%	46.01%	+23.82	2-2
2022-10-09	@ Carolina Panthers	W 37-15	1551.71	1434.41	59.80%	39.32%	+24.68	3-2
2022-10-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-28	1576.39	1460.18	59.64%	39.47%	-29.77	3-3
2022-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-44	1546.62	1603.96	47.78%	51.33%	-29.26	3-4
2022-10-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 31-14	1517.36	1515.66	43.36%	55.75%	+30.68	4-4
2022-11-13	Los Angeles Chargers	W 22-16	1548.04	1484.00	64.71%	34.40%	+11.28	5-4
2022-11-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 38-10	1559.32	1476.00	61.30%	37.81%	+26.79	6-4
2022-11-27	New Orleans Saints	W 13-0	1586.11	1467.31	71.44%	27.67%	+13.38	7-4
2022-12-04	Miami Dolphins	W 33-17	1599.49	1549.77	62.83%	36.28%	+19.44	8-4
2022-12-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1618.93	1529.97	67.87%	31.24%	+22.15	9-4
2022-12-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 21-13	1641.08	1509.08	61.79%	37.32%	+14.13	10-4
2022-12-24	Washington Commanders	W 37-20	1655.21	1480.40	77.41%	21.70%	+12.01	11-4
2023-01-01	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 37-34	1667.22	1475.41	69.44%	29.67%	+6.90	12-4
2023-01-08	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-13	1674.12	1384.92	86.57%	12.55%	+8.43	13-4
2022-09-12	Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1513.42	1475.29	61.27%	37.84%	+5.07	1-0
2022-09-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-27	1518.49	1507.94	44.62%	54.49%	-26.68	1-1
2022-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 23-27	1491.81	1441.01	62.97%	36.14%	-16.80	1-2
2022-10-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 48-45	1475.01	1436.09	48.68%	50.43%	+11.66	2-2
2022-10-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 32-39	1486.67	1483.06	43.63%	55.48%	-15.44	2-3
2022-10-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 19-9	1471.23	1484.82	54.06%	45.05%	+19.05	3-3
2022-10-23	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 37-23	1490.28	1499.39	41.84%	57.27%	+28.60	4-3
2022-10-30	New York Giants	W 27-13	1518.88	1506.14	57.78%	41.33%	+20.69	5-3
2022-11-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-21	1539.57	1470.37	53.03%	46.08%	+19.48	6-3
2022-11-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-21	1559.05	1527.76	54.04%	45.07%	-16.14	6-4
2022-11-27	Las Vegas Raiders	L 34-40	1542.91	1436.03	70.05%	29.07%	-22.88	6-5
2022-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-23	1520.03	1426.32	56.51%	42.60%	+11.40	7-5
2022-12-11	Carolina Panthers	L 24-30	1531.43	1438.27	68.39%	30.72%	-22.35	7-6
2022-12-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-21	1509.08	1641.08	37.32%	61.79%	-14.13	7-7
2022-12-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-24	1494.95	1664.98	22.17%	76.94%	-11.14	7-8
2023-01-01	New York Jets	W 23-6	1483.81	1444.87	61.38%	37.73%	+20.83	8-8
2023-01-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-16	1504.64	1419.47	67.40%	31.71%	+7.36	9-8
2022-09-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-3	1565.44	1533.69	47.65%	51.46%	+27.49	1-0
2022-09-18	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-10	1592.93	1534.59	51.47%	47.64%	+20.13	2-0
2022-09-25	Green Bay Packers	L 12-14	1613.06	1543.26	65.46%	33.66%	-12.35	2-1
2022-10-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 31-41	1600.71	1590.15	57.47%	41.64%	-24.25	2-2
2022-10-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-15	1576.46	1469.74	70.03%	29.09%	+9.55	3-2
2022-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-20	1586.01	1442.53	63.33%	35.78%	-11.94	3-3
2022-10-23	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-21	1574.07	1394.15	67.99%	31.12%	-38.48	3-4
2022-10-27	Baltimore Ravens	L 22-27	1535.59	1534.97	56.08%	43.04%	-16.73	3-5
2022-11-06	Los Angeles Rams	W 16-13	1518.86	1484.98	60.69%	38.42%	+8.90	4-5
2022-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 21-16	1527.76	1559.05	45.07%	54.04%	+16.13	5-5
2022-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-23	1543.89	1451.71	56.30%	42.81%	-18.40	5-6
2022-12-05	New Orleans Saints	W 17-16	1525.49	1453.93	65.68%	33.43%	+4.48	6-6
2022-12-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-35	1529.97	1618.93	31.24%	67.87%	-22.16	6-7
2022-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-34	1507.81	1608.77	41.58%	57.53%	-18.45	6-8
2022-12-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 19-16	1489.36	1400.35	55.85%	43.26%	+10.02	7-8
2023-01-01	Carolina Panthers	W 30-24	1499.38	1465.16	60.74%	38.37%	+12.58	8-8
2023-01-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-30	1511.96	1415.22	56.94%	42.17%	-9.13	8-9
2022-09-11	New York Giants	L 20-21	1527.72	1436.13	68.20%	30.91%	-9.10	0-1
2022-09-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-41	1518.62	1609.30	31.03%	68.09%	-24.25	0-2
2022-09-25	Las Vegas Raiders	W 24-22	1494.37	1450.98	61.98%	37.13%	+7.03	1-2
2022-10-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-17	1501.40	1504.52	42.68%	56.43%	+19.93	2-2
2022-10-09	@ Washington Commanders	W 21-17	1521.33	1421.95	57.31%	41.80%	+11.18	3-2
2022-10-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 19-10	1532.51	1510.28	59.10%	40.02%	+16.07	4-2
2022-10-30	@ Houston Texans	W 17-10	1548.58	1402.90	63.62%	35.49%	+12.57	5-2
2022-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1561.15	1633.22	33.37%	65.75%	-7.74	5-3
2022-11-13	Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1553.41	1444.43	70.29%	28.82%	+10.23	6-3
2022-11-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-17	1563.64	1481.19	54.92%	44.19%	+18.68	7-3
2022-11-27	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-20	1582.32	1566.44	58.22%	40.90%	-15.54	7-4
2022-12-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-35	1566.78	1603.19	38.07%	61.04%	-25.48	7-5
2022-12-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 22-36	1541.30	1401.00	73.85%	25.26%	-36.85	7-6
2022-12-18	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 14-17	1504.45	1474.16	47.44%	51.67%	-10.99	7-7
2022-12-24	Houston Texans	L 14-19	1493.46	1311.29	78.12%	20.99%	-23.30	7-8
2022-12-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-27	1470.16	1641.67	32.17%	66.94%	-16.13	7-9
2023-01-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-20	1454.03	1516.33	34.63%	64.48%	-9.27	7-10
2022-09-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-22	1471.35	1417.90	63.32%	35.79%	+11.74	1-0
2022-09-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-36	1483.09	1424.99	51.44%	47.67%	-20.61	1-1
2022-09-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 8-24	1462.48	1530.69	46.22%	52.89%	-24.71	1-2
2022-10-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-25	1437.77	1533.00	30.47%	68.64%	-15.82	1-3
2022-10-09	Tennessee Titans	L 17-21	1421.95	1521.33	41.80%	57.31%	-11.18	1-4
2022-10-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 12-7	1410.77	1445.90	38.25%	60.87%	+18.15	2-4
2022-10-23	Green Bay Packers	W 23-21	1428.92	1506.28	44.92%	54.20%	+10.24	3-4
2022-10-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-16	1439.16	1494.22	35.58%	63.54%	+8.47	4-4
2022-11-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1447.63	1565.87	39.19%	59.92%	-9.08	4-5
2022-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 32-21	1438.55	1623.13	20.76%	78.35%	+34.66	5-5
2022-11-20	@ Houston Texans	W 23-10	1473.21	1367.08	58.25%	40.86%	+19.71	6-5
2022-11-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 19-13	1492.92	1453.44	61.46%	37.66%	+12.35	7-5
2022-12-04	@ New York Giants	T 20-20	1505.27	1454.61	50.37%	48.74%	-0.05	7-5
2022-12-18	New York Giants	L 12-20	1505.22	1432.89	65.78%	33.33%	-24.82	7-6
2022-12-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-37	1480.40	1655.21	21.70%	77.41%	-12.01	7-7
2023-01-01	Cleveland Browns	L 10-24	1468.39	1477.28	54.73%	44.38%	-27.34	7-8
2023-01-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-6	1441.05	1657.80	26.77%	72.34%	+43.16	8-8

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2023-01-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1542.42	1652.60	29.04%	70.96%	-10.17	0-1
2023-01-15	Miami Dolphins	W 34-31	1711.79	1491.65	82.15%	17.85%	+4.09	1-0
2023-01-22	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1715.88	1662.78	63.76%	36.24%	-34.80	1-1
2023-01-15	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-17	1652.60	1542.42	70.96%	29.04%	+10.18	1-0
2023-01-22	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-10	1662.78	1715.88	36.24%	63.76%	+34.80	2-0
2023-01-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1697.58	1702.55	42.86%	57.14%	-9.83	2-1
2023-01-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-14	1614.64	1502.83	59.50%	40.50%	+22.11	1-0
2023-01-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 12-19	1636.75	1695.15	35.54%	64.46%	-12.45	1-1
2023-01-14	Los Angeles Chargers	W 31-30	1525.61	1516.75	57.69%	42.31%	+5.60	1-0
2023-01-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1531.21	1694.43	23.17%	76.83%	-8.12	1-1
2023-01-21	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-20	1694.43	1531.21	76.83%	23.17%	+8.12	1-0
2023-01-29	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1702.55	1697.58	57.14%	42.86%	+9.83	2-0
2023-02-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-35	1712.38	1672.53	55.71%	44.29%	+10.16	3-0
2023-01-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 30-31	1516.75	1525.61	42.31%	57.69%	-5.60	0-1
2023-01-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-34	1491.65	1711.79	17.85%	82.15%	-4.09	0-1
2023-01-15	New York Giants	L 24-31	1541.30	1467.82	66.42%	33.58%	-23.27	0-1
2023-01-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-24	1467.82	1541.30	33.58%	66.42%	+23.27	1-0
2023-01-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-38	1491.09	1617.80	27.12%	72.88%	-19.99	1-1
2023-01-21	New York Giants	W 38-7	1617.80	1491.09	72.88%	27.12%	+19.99	1-0
2023-01-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-7	1637.79	1707.60	46.44%	53.56%	+34.74	2-0
2023-02-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 35-38	1672.53	1712.38	44.29%	55.71%	-10.15	2-1
2023-01-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 41-23	1682.55	1512.00	77.57%	22.43%	+12.60	1-0
2023-01-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-12	1695.15	1636.75	64.46%	35.54%	+12.45	2-0
2023-01-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-31	1707.60	1637.79	53.56%	46.44%	-34.74	2-1
2023-01-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 23-41	1512.00	1682.55	22.43%	77.57%	-12.60	0-1
2023-01-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-31	1502.83	1614.64	40.50%	59.50%	-22.11	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2022-11-14	20.76%	Washington Commanders	1438.55	32	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1623.13	21
2	2022-12-24	20.99%	Houston Texans	1311.29	19	@ Tennessee Titans	1493.46	14
3	2023-01-01	23.10%	New Orleans Saints	1480.50	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1641.29	10
4	2022-12-11	25.26%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1401.00	36	@ Tennessee Titans	1541.30	22
5	2023-01-08	26.77%	@ Washington Commanders	1441.05	26	Dallas Cowboys	1657.80	6
6	2022-12-18	27.34%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1437.85	40	Dallas Cowboys	1649.57	34
7	2022-10-24	28.13%	Chicago Bears	1427.75	33	@ New England Patriots	1542.61	14
8	2022-11-27	29.07%	Las Vegas Raiders	1436.03	40	@ Seattle Seahawks	1542.91	34
9	2022-09-18	29.09%	New York Jets	1399.38	31	@ Cleveland Browns	1506.03	30
10	2022-11-06	29.87%	@ New York Jets	1483.85	20	Buffalo Bills	1673.98	17
11	2022-10-16	29.89%	New York Jets	1444.33	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1544.35	10
12	2022-11-20	30.61%	Detroit Lions	1402.40	31	@ New York Giants	1496.45	18
13	2022-12-11	30.72%	Carolina Panthers	1438.27	30	@ Seattle Seahawks	1531.43	24
14	2022-09-11	30.91%	New York Giants	1436.13	21	@ Tennessee Titans	1527.72	20
15	2022-10-02	30.91%	New York Jets	1386.42	24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1478.05	20
16	2022-10-23	31.12%	@ Carolina Panthers	1394.15	21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1574.07	3
17	2022-11-13	31.98%	Minnesota Vikings	1574.95	33	@ Buffalo Bills	1657.99	30
18	2023-01-01	32.22%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1491.04	16	@ Baltimore Ravens	1572.17	13
19	2022-10-09	32.77%	Houston Texans	1401.13	13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1477.87	6
20	2023-01-08	32.87%	@ Denver Broncos	1366.13	31	Los Angeles Chargers	1532.05	28
21	2022-11-27	33.06%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1421.73	28	Baltimore Ravens	1586.18	27
22	2022-12-18	33.33%	New York Giants	1432.89	20	@ Washington Commanders	1505.22	12
23	2023-01-15 *	33.58%	New York Giants	1467.82	31	@ Minnesota Vikings	1541.30	24
24	2022-09-25	33.66%	Green Bay Packers	1543.26	14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1613.06	12
25	2023-01-08	34.18%	Houston Texans	1310.55	32	@ Indianapolis Colts	1376.31	31

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2022-11-20	47.38	Dallas Cowboys	40	1573.48	40.74%	@ Minnesota Vikings	3	1590.46	58.37%
2	2022-09-25	45.01	Jacksonville Jaguars	38	1445.87	35.35%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	10	1502.66	63.76%
3	2023-01-08	43.16	@ Washington Commanders	26	1441.05	26.77%	Dallas Cowboys	6	1657.80	72.34%
4	2022-10-24	41.27	Chicago Bears	33	1427.75	28.13%	@ New England Patriots	14	1542.61	70.98%
5	2022-09-18	39.71	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	24	1406.16	38.35%	Indianapolis Colts	0	1530.55	60.76%
6	2022-10-09	39.71	@ New York Jets	40	1404.62	37.05%	Miami Dolphins	17	1538.64	62.07%
7	2022-10-23	38.48	@ Carolina Panthers	21	1394.15	31.12%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	1574.07	67.99%
8	2022-10-16	38.07	New York Jets	27	1444.33	29.89%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1544.35	69.22%
9	2022-12-11	36.85	Jacksonville Jaguars	36	1401.00	25.26%	@ Tennessee Titans	22	1541.30	73.85%
10	2022-12-25	34.93	@ Los Angeles Rams	51	1405.06	56.18%	Denver Broncos	14	1403.72	42.93%
11	2022-10-31	34.83	@ Cleveland Browns	32	1451.21	39.24%	Cincinnati Bengals	13	1569.11	59.88%
12	2023-01-22 *	34.80	Cincinnati Bengals	27	1662.78	36.24%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1715.88	63.76%
13	2023-01-29 *	34.74	@ Philadelphia Eagles	31	1637.79	46.44%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1707.60	53.56%
14	2022-11-14	34.67	Washington Commanders	32	1438.55	20.76%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	21	1623.13	78.35%
15	2022-10-16	34.53	New England Patriots	38	1508.08	45.18%	@ Cleveland Browns	15	1493.60	53.93%
16	2022-11-20	32.94	Detroit Lions	31	1402.40	30.61%	@ New York Giants	18	1496.45	68.50%
17	2023-01-01	32.81	@ Green Bay Packers	41	1508.53	48.98%	Minnesota Vikings	17	1557.56	50.14%
18	2022-09-08	32.07	Buffalo Bills	31	1577.23	46.70%	@ Los Angeles Rams	10	1552.11	52.41%
19	2023-01-01	32.07	New Orleans Saints	20	1480.50	23.10%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	10	1641.29	76.01%
20	2022-12-22	30.98	Jacksonville Jaguars	19	1461.30	41.08%	@ New York Jets	3	1475.85	58.03%
21	2022-10-30	30.68	San Francisco 49ers	31	1517.36	43.36%	@ Los Angeles Rams	14	1515.66	55.75%
22	2022-09-11	30.15	Kansas City Chiefs	44	1566.36	52.07%	@ Arizona Cardinals	21	1503.86	47.04%
23	2022-10-16	29.78	@ Atlanta Falcons	28	1460.18	39.47%	San Francisco 49ers	14	1576.39	59.64%
24	2022-10-30	29.61	@ New Orleans Saints	24	1467.62	53.90%	Las Vegas Raiders	0	1482.33	45.21%
25	2022-12-04	29.54	@ Detroit Lions	40	1429.13	55.79%	Jacksonville Jaguars	14	1430.54	43.32%