2021 NFL Season

272 regular-season games · 14 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Los Angeles Rams

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1999

Runner-Up

Cincinnati Bengals

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1988

Biggest Overachiever

Dallas Cowboys

2.81 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.19 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Giants

2.35 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.35 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	11	6	.647	—	483	289	+194	11.57	-0.57
2	New England Patriots Playoffs	10	7	.588	1	462	303	+159	9.11	+0.89
3	Miami Dolphins	9	8	.529	2	341	373	-32	8.51	+0.49
4	New York Jets	4	13	.235	7	310	504	-194	4.92	-0.92

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	10	7	0	.588	—	460	376	+84	8.23	+1.77
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	9	7	1	.559	0.5	343	398	-55	8.42	+1.08
3	Cleveland Browns	8	9	0	.471	2	349	371	-22	8.71	-0.71
4	Baltimore Ravens	8	9	0	.471	2	387	392	-5	10.28	-2.28

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tennessee Titans Division	12	5	.706	—	419	354	+65	9.71	+2.29
2	Indianapolis Colts	9	8	.529	3	451	365	+86	9.81	-0.81
3	Houston Texans	4	13	.235	8	280	452	-172	5.88	-1.88
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	14	.176	9	253	457	-204	4.70	-1.70

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	12	5	.706	—	480	364	+116	10.90	+1.10
2	Las Vegas Raiders Playoffs	10	7	.588	2	374	439	-65	7.55	+2.45
3	Los Angeles Chargers	9	8	.529	3	474	459	+15	8.40	+0.60
4	Denver Broncos	7	10	.412	5	335	322	+13	8.16	-1.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	5	.706	—	530	358	+172	9.19	+2.81
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	9	8	.529	3	444	385	+59	7.82	+1.18
3	Washington Football Team	7	10	.412	5	335	434	-99	7.10	-0.10
4	New York Giants	4	13	.235	8	258	416	-158	6.35	-2.35

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	13	4	0	.765	—	450	371	+79	11.29	+1.71
2	Minnesota Vikings	8	9	0	.471	5	425	426	-1	8.09	-0.09
3	Chicago Bears	6	11	0	.353	7	311	407	-96	7.24	-1.24
4	Detroit Lions	3	13	1	.206	9.5	325	467	-142	4.74	-1.24

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	13	4	.765	—	511	353	+158	12.32	+0.68
2	New Orleans Saints	9	8	.529	4	364	335	+29	10.39	-1.39
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	10	.412	6	313	459	-146	7.32	-0.32
4	Carolina Panthers	5	12	.294	8	304	404	-100	7.32	-2.32

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	12	5	.706	—	460	372	+88	10.37	+1.63
2	Arizona Cardinals Playoffs	11	6	.647	1	449	366	+83	10.02	+0.98
3	San Francisco 49ers Playoffs	10	7	.588	2	427	365	+62	8.53	+1.47
4	Seattle Seahawks	7	10	.412	5	395	366	+29	9.07	-2.07

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Cincinnati Bengals 26

Las Vegas Raiders 19

Jan 15

Buffalo Bills 47

New England Patriots 17

Jan 15

Kansas City Chiefs 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Jan 16

Divisional Round

Cincinnati Bengals 19

Tennessee Titans 16

Jan 22

Kansas City Chiefs 42

Buffalo Bills 36

Jan 23

Conference Championship

Cincinnati Bengals 27

Kansas City Chiefs 24

Jan 30

NFC

Wild Card Round

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Philadelphia Eagles 15

Jan 16

San Francisco 49ers 23

Dallas Cowboys 17

Jan 16

Los Angeles Rams 34

Arizona Cardinals 11

Jan 17

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 13

Green Bay Packers 10

Jan 22

Los Angeles Rams 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Jan 23

Conference Championship

Los Angeles Rams 20

San Francisco 49ers 17

Jan 30

Super Bowl

Los Angeles Rams 23

Cincinnati Bengals 20

Feb 13

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1678	13	12.32	+0.68	73.94%	5	9	11	12	14	15	17
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1663	12	10.90	+1.10	79.80%	4	8	10	11	12	14	17
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1662	13	11.29	+1.71	88.70%	3	8	10	11	13	14	17
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1660	11	11.57	-0.57	48.32%	4	8	10	12	13	14	17
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1599	12	10.37	+1.63	86.84%	2	7	9	10	12	13	17
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1598	12	9.19	+2.81	95.31%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1590	12	9.71	+2.29	93.28%	2	6	8	10	11	13	17
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1571	10	9.11	+0.89	76.53%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1569	9	9.81	-0.81	43.73%	2	7	8	10	11	13	17
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1569	9	10.39	-1.39	32.49%	2	7	9	10	12	13	17
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1552	10	8.53	+1.47	84.03%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1540	9	8.51	+0.49	70.67%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1530	11	10.02	+0.98	78.61%	2	7	9	10	11	13	17
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1528	10	8.23	+1.77	87.57%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1528	7	9.07	-2.07	22.16%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1526	8	10.28	-2.28	18.62%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1509	9.5	8.42	+1.08	71.70%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1500	8	8.09	-0.09	58.90%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1495	9	7.82	+1.18	80.66%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1494	9	8.40	+0.60	71.41%	1	5	7	8	10	12	16
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1491	8	8.71	-0.71	46.68%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1474	10	7.55	+2.45	93.44%	0	4	6	7	9	11	15
Washington Football Team	NFC	NFC East	1433	7	7.10	-0.10	58.62%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1430	7	8.16	-1.16	37.93%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1421	6	7.24	-1.24	36.35%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1404	7	7.32	-0.32	55.03%	1	4	6	7	9	10	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1384	5	7.32	-2.32	18.57%	1	4	6	7	9	10	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1360	4	5.88	-1.88	24.39%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1337	4	6.35	-2.35	18.28%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1318	3.5	4.74	-1.24	26.19%	0	2	3	5	6	8	12
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1301	4	4.92	-0.92	42.81%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1286	3	4.70	-1.70	26.47%	0	2	3	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (3.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—
New York Jets	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-2-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.0 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—
Las Vegas Raiders	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
Los Angeles Chargers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Team
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Football Team	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Football Team	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	0-3-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-4 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4-0 (2.9 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (3.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dallas Cowboys	12	9.19	+2.81
2	Las Vegas Raiders	10	7.55	+2.45
3	Tennessee Titans	12	9.71	+2.29
4	Cincinnati Bengals	10	8.23	+1.77
5	Green Bay Packers	13	11.29	+1.71

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New York Giants	4	6.35	-2.35
2	Carolina Panthers	5	7.32	-2.32
3	Baltimore Ravens	8	10.28	-2.28
4	Seattle Seahawks	7	9.07	-2.07
5	Houston Texans	4	5.88	-1.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tennessee Titans	6	Oct 10 – Nov 14	1 in 92
2	Miami Dolphins	7	Nov 7 – Dec 27	1 in 77
3	New England Patriots	7	Oct 24 – Dec 6	1 in 75
4	Arizona Cardinals	7	Sep 12 – Oct 24	1 in 56
5	Dallas Cowboys	6	Sep 19 – Oct 31	1 in 51

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	5	Nov 7 – Dec 2	1 in 125
2	Baltimore Ravens	6	Dec 5 – Jan 9	1 in 113
3	Miami Dolphins	7	Sep 19 – Oct 31	1 in 84
4	Houston Texans	8	Sep 19 – Nov 7	1 in 27
5	Carolina Panthers	7	Nov 21 – Jan 9	1 in 26

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	71.51%	21.51%	6.56%	0.42%
New England Patriots	17.34%	41.67%	34.95%	6.04%
Miami Dolphins	10.90%	34.16%	46.58%	8.36%
New York Jets	0.25%	2.66%	11.91%	85.18%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	50.91%	26.04%	14.47%	8.58%
Cleveland Browns	18.61%	27.12%	28.07%	26.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	16.44%	24.73%	28.65%	30.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	14.04%	22.11%	28.81%	35.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	49.29%	41.27%	8.26%	1.18%
Tennessee Titans	47.38%	43.16%	8.20%	1.26%
Houston Texans	2.59%	11.01%	53.62%	32.78%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.74%	4.56%	29.92%	64.78%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	66.47%	21.52%	8.79%	3.22%
Los Angeles Chargers	14.39%	31.06%	28.94%	25.61%
Denver Broncos	11.48%	26.93%	31.27%	30.32%
Las Vegas Raiders	7.66%	20.49%	31.00%	40.85%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	53.00%	25.75%	14.48%	6.77%
Philadelphia Eagles	23.97%	32.02%	25.70%	18.31%
Washington Football Team	14.71%	25.08%	31.51%	28.70%
New York Giants	8.32%	17.15%	28.31%	46.22%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	81.19%	15.36%	3.00%	0.45%
Minnesota Vikings	12.10%	48.05%	30.99%	8.86%
Chicago Bears	6.28%	31.12%	46.30%	16.30%
Detroit Lions	0.43%	5.47%	19.71%	74.39%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	72.28%	22.94%	4.14%	0.64%
New Orleans Saints	23.92%	54.32%	16.71%	5.05%
Atlanta Falcons	1.89%	11.55%	39.82%	46.74%
Carolina Panthers	1.91%	11.19%	39.33%	47.57%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	39.36%	28.37%	20.03%	12.24%
Arizona Cardinals	31.99%	29.99%	22.53%	15.49%
Seattle Seahawks	17.24%	23.05%	29.05%	30.66%
San Francisco 49ers	11.41%	18.59%	28.39%	41.61%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Buffalo Bills	31.82%	19.44%	13.51%	9.69%	7.09%	5.35%	4.20%	3.03%	2.30%	1.42%	1.04%	0.64%	0.26%	0.14%	0.07%	—
Kansas City Chiefs	20.82%	17.96%	14.00%	10.71%	8.46%	6.83%	5.53%	4.03%	3.87%	2.77%	2.06%	1.39%	0.71%	0.59%	0.24%	0.03%
Baltimore Ravens	12.61%	13.11%	13.11%	11.10%	9.77%	8.19%	6.92%	5.90%	4.86%	4.41%	3.18%	2.59%	2.17%	1.41%	0.50%	0.17%
Indianapolis Colts	7.84%	10.05%	11.30%	11.45%	10.38%	9.17%	8.84%	8.58%	6.38%	4.86%	3.74%	3.01%	2.03%	1.35%	0.73%	0.29%
Tennessee Titans	7.25%	9.76%	10.92%	11.30%	9.98%	9.35%	9.18%	8.55%	6.53%	4.92%	4.09%	3.54%	2.12%	1.56%	0.54%	0.41%
New England Patriots	4.58%	5.91%	6.70%	7.83%	8.76%	9.18%	9.08%	8.83%	8.24%	8.14%	7.55%	6.00%	3.96%	2.71%	1.73%	0.80%
Cleveland Browns	3.12%	4.81%	5.50%	6.63%	7.94%	8.06%	7.77%	8.29%	8.73%	8.39%	7.58%	7.33%	6.89%	4.99%	2.89%	1.08%
Miami Dolphins	2.62%	3.30%	4.19%	6.04%	6.69%	7.73%	8.95%	9.11%	9.14%	10.42%	9.59%	7.68%	5.97%	4.41%	2.66%	1.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.43%	3.95%	5.20%	5.64%	6.62%	6.99%	7.55%	8.16%	8.90%	8.76%	8.34%	8.27%	7.52%	5.93%	4.16%	1.58%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.38%	3.71%	4.46%	5.61%	7.23%	7.38%	7.82%	8.45%	8.72%	7.92%	8.43%	7.87%	7.86%	6.46%	4.18%	1.52%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.80%	3.38%	4.48%	4.65%	6.09%	6.83%	7.01%	7.69%	8.56%	9.45%	9.05%	8.76%	8.89%	6.86%	4.35%	2.15%
Denver Broncos	1.61%	2.79%	3.71%	4.91%	5.40%	7.40%	7.70%	7.63%	8.38%	8.86%	9.76%	9.12%	8.18%	7.25%	4.93%	2.37%
Las Vegas Raiders	1.02%	1.60%	2.27%	3.38%	4.04%	5.12%	6.06%	6.67%	8.35%	9.14%	9.77%	10.60%	10.40%	10.57%	7.51%	3.50%
Houston Texans	0.07%	0.18%	0.39%	0.71%	1.09%	1.44%	2.09%	2.89%	3.98%	5.65%	8.07%	11.30%	14.07%	15.91%	16.62%	15.54%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.03%	0.08%	0.18%	0.21%	0.46%	0.72%	1.13%	1.67%	2.58%	3.85%	5.79%	9.48%	15.77%	26.20%	31.83%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.02%	0.18%	0.17%	0.25%	0.52%	0.58%	1.06%	1.39%	2.31%	3.90%	6.11%	9.49%	14.09%	22.69%	37.23%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.67%	20.79%	13.07%	9.12%	5.78%	3.73%	2.54%	1.68%	1.07%	0.58%	0.39%	0.35%	0.13%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	19.35%	21.35%	17.44%	12.04%	8.41%	6.10%	4.72%	3.64%	2.42%	1.72%	1.03%	0.84%	0.40%	0.28%	0.18%	0.08%
New Orleans Saints	10.78%	10.71%	11.58%	12.14%	12.61%	10.48%	8.11%	6.01%	4.78%	4.22%	2.87%	2.28%	1.58%	1.16%	0.54%	0.15%
Los Angeles Rams	9.82%	13.53%	12.52%	11.09%	10.34%	9.38%	7.51%	6.27%	5.70%	3.92%	3.47%	2.62%	1.90%	1.09%	0.64%	0.20%
Arizona Cardinals	7.05%	10.83%	11.20%	10.97%	10.60%	9.40%	8.65%	7.08%	5.89%	5.53%	3.86%	3.32%	2.55%	1.94%	0.80%	0.33%
Dallas Cowboys	3.41%	6.25%	8.80%	10.92%	10.08%	9.40%	9.20%	7.84%	7.12%	6.62%	5.45%	4.65%	3.86%	3.04%	2.31%	1.05%
Seattle Seahawks	3.34%	5.44%	7.00%	7.39%	8.31%	8.45%	8.60%	8.59%	8.73%	7.83%	6.59%	5.97%	5.43%	4.47%	2.74%	1.12%
San Francisco 49ers	1.98%	3.52%	4.72%	5.70%	6.75%	7.26%	8.23%	8.64%	8.45%	8.61%	8.14%	7.85%	7.16%	6.47%	4.40%	2.12%
Minnesota Vikings	1.07%	2.11%	3.82%	4.71%	5.90%	7.93%	8.86%	9.16%	8.62%	8.78%	8.76%	8.71%	8.05%	5.74%	4.65%	3.13%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.77%	1.76%	3.23%	5.03%	5.58%	6.78%	7.06%	8.34%	8.32%	8.37%	9.02%	8.63%	8.26%	7.41%	7.09%	4.35%
Chicago Bears	0.47%	1.03%	1.64%	2.31%	3.14%	4.71%	5.91%	7.48%	7.84%	8.69%	9.93%	10.51%	11.30%	9.50%	8.30%	7.24%
Washington Football Team	0.42%	0.72%	1.68%	2.76%	3.26%	4.50%	5.99%	6.56%	7.64%	8.28%	8.66%	9.97%	10.33%	10.42%	10.90%	7.91%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%	0.89%	1.11%	2.09%	3.55%	4.36%	5.41%	6.23%	8.04%	8.98%	10.21%	10.26%	10.50%	11.55%	10.00%	6.44%
Carolina Panthers	0.41%	0.71%	1.31%	2.17%	3.48%	4.22%	5.29%	6.37%	8.26%	8.94%	10.26%	9.78%	10.46%	12.22%	9.83%	6.29%
New York Giants	0.08%	0.33%	0.82%	1.40%	2.00%	2.89%	3.27%	4.87%	5.41%	6.38%	7.80%	9.11%	10.41%	13.50%	16.53%	15.20%
Detroit Lions	—	0.03%	0.06%	0.16%	0.21%	0.41%	0.65%	1.24%	1.71%	2.55%	3.56%	5.15%	7.68%	11.14%	21.07%	44.38%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27.13%	16.25%	11.65%	8.57%	6.77%	5.84%	4.65%	3.88%	2.77%	2.75%	1.80%	1.66%	1.09%	0.96%	0.94%	0.69%	0.72%	0.42%	0.36%	0.19%	0.28%	0.17%	0.12%	0.15%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	—	—	0.01%	—
Buffalo Bills	15.03%	14.31%	10.48%	9.99%	6.90%	6.71%	5.76%	4.65%	3.91%	3.42%	3.18%	2.87%	2.13%	1.94%	1.67%	1.32%	1.16%	1.07%	0.72%	0.73%	0.51%	0.40%	0.37%	0.32%	0.14%	0.14%	0.04%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	—
Green Bay Packers	11.64%	10.65%	11.27%	9.37%	8.53%	7.44%	6.22%	4.92%	4.45%	3.77%	3.18%	2.86%	2.57%	2.52%	1.95%	1.50%	1.21%	1.19%	0.96%	0.89%	0.61%	0.64%	0.38%	0.40%	0.24%	0.18%	0.16%	0.10%	0.12%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.74%	10.11%	8.47%	8.87%	7.62%	7.07%	5.66%	5.74%	4.64%	4.50%	3.68%	3.23%	3.16%	2.66%	2.10%	2.08%	2.07%	1.60%	1.72%	1.25%	1.15%	0.89%	0.71%	0.59%	0.50%	0.42%	0.28%	0.26%	0.08%	0.10%	0.04%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	5.88%	5.79%	6.63%	5.56%	6.39%	5.46%	6.30%	5.86%	5.79%	5.15%	5.03%	4.63%	4.14%	3.74%	3.20%	2.95%	2.55%	2.39%	2.12%	1.88%	1.70%	1.40%	1.21%	1.09%	0.91%	0.68%	0.63%	0.39%	0.23%	0.22%	0.07%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams	5.42%	5.83%	7.33%	6.21%	6.38%	5.75%	6.04%	5.58%	5.17%	4.88%	4.79%	4.30%	3.79%	3.43%	3.15%	3.12%	2.85%	2.58%	1.95%	2.16%	1.86%	1.61%	1.22%	1.12%	1.04%	0.83%	0.59%	0.39%	0.32%	0.16%	0.10%	0.05%
Baltimore Ravens	5.06%	6.66%	6.21%	6.22%	6.32%	6.95%	5.48%	5.80%	5.52%	4.91%	4.72%	3.66%	3.64%	3.43%	3.55%	2.85%	2.75%	2.20%	2.15%	2.02%	1.96%	1.53%	1.20%	1.06%	1.07%	1.13%	0.62%	0.65%	0.32%	0.19%	0.11%	0.06%
Arizona Cardinals	3.91%	4.12%	5.44%	5.23%	6.14%	5.72%	5.49%	5.42%	5.39%	5.05%	4.45%	4.85%	4.18%	3.72%	3.67%	3.46%	3.04%	2.96%	2.75%	2.74%	2.21%	1.92%	1.53%	1.56%	1.18%	1.32%	0.88%	0.77%	0.45%	0.26%	0.14%	0.05%
Indianapolis Colts	3.22%	3.95%	4.56%	5.44%	5.43%	5.58%	5.69%	5.35%	6.02%	5.05%	4.55%	4.83%	4.41%	4.36%	3.90%	3.80%	3.28%	3.69%	2.62%	2.50%	1.91%	2.14%	1.64%	1.44%	1.12%	1.06%	0.71%	0.75%	0.45%	0.27%	0.23%	0.05%
Tennessee Titans	2.75%	3.82%	4.50%	5.14%	5.23%	5.09%	5.27%	5.67%	5.47%	5.13%	4.96%	4.89%	4.36%	4.80%	3.92%	4.08%	3.07%	3.72%	2.65%	2.49%	2.08%	2.38%	1.75%	1.83%	1.19%	1.09%	0.94%	0.63%	0.40%	0.34%	0.22%	0.14%
Dallas Cowboys	1.59%	2.55%	3.18%	3.28%	4.17%	4.47%	4.39%	5.15%	5.25%	4.86%	4.27%	4.86%	4.47%	4.30%	4.27%	3.87%	3.77%	3.51%	3.59%	3.25%	3.02%	2.82%	2.54%	2.22%	2.27%	1.77%	1.97%	1.42%	1.29%	0.89%	0.51%	0.23%
New England Patriots	1.64%	2.37%	2.55%	3.07%	3.58%	3.57%	3.94%	4.00%	4.47%	4.54%	4.16%	4.90%	4.49%	4.89%	4.61%	4.25%	4.32%	3.85%	4.04%	3.99%	3.51%	3.59%	3.25%	2.75%	2.11%	2.11%	1.50%	1.36%	0.97%	0.83%	0.48%	0.31%
Seattle Seahawks	1.46%	2.13%	2.99%	3.07%	3.46%	3.65%	3.97%	3.55%	4.24%	3.80%	4.18%	4.35%	4.59%	4.18%	4.48%	4.25%	4.16%	4.07%	3.97%	4.08%	3.34%	3.41%	2.86%	2.89%	2.88%	2.55%	2.23%	1.95%	1.39%	1.00%	0.58%	0.29%
Cleveland Browns	1.06%	1.61%	1.95%	2.58%	2.47%	3.09%	3.18%	3.51%	3.73%	4.33%	4.11%	4.37%	4.23%	3.65%	4.55%	4.14%	4.67%	4.22%	4.22%	3.92%	4.05%	3.80%	3.31%	3.54%	3.25%	3.08%	2.91%	2.40%	1.49%	1.30%	0.80%	0.48%
Miami Dolphins	0.80%	1.19%	1.40%	2.02%	2.16%	2.36%	2.78%	3.47%	2.97%	3.52%	4.07%	4.10%	3.88%	4.86%	4.67%	4.75%	4.25%	4.80%	4.81%	5.31%	4.30%	4.37%	3.75%	3.67%	3.13%	3.37%	2.45%	2.12%	1.56%	1.55%	0.97%	0.59%
San Francisco 49ers	0.77%	1.36%	1.63%	2.28%	2.43%	2.40%	3.10%	2.77%	3.33%	3.24%	3.93%	3.49%	4.23%	4.19%	4.54%	4.15%	4.30%	4.10%	4.35%	4.44%	4.31%	3.82%	3.90%	3.93%	3.48%	3.29%	3.48%	2.87%	2.45%	1.59%	1.21%	0.64%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.71%	1.28%	1.68%	2.12%	2.25%	2.73%	2.86%	3.14%	2.84%	3.59%	3.79%	3.62%	3.90%	3.82%	4.26%	4.36%	4.91%	4.00%	4.39%	4.13%	4.41%	4.03%	4.19%	4.14%	3.61%	3.43%	2.73%	3.08%	2.32%	1.90%	1.14%	0.64%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.67%	1.19%	1.63%	1.96%	2.30%	2.36%	2.82%	2.91%	3.48%	3.59%	3.66%	3.95%	4.20%	4.12%	4.22%	4.15%	4.24%	4.35%	4.22%	3.72%	4.27%	4.27%	3.91%	3.87%	4.01%	3.45%	3.26%	3.15%	2.23%	2.09%	1.11%	0.64%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.44%	1.03%	1.34%	1.80%	1.91%	2.47%	2.35%	2.85%	2.72%	3.38%	3.40%	3.33%	3.78%	3.66%	4.13%	4.21%	3.72%	4.31%	4.74%	4.81%	4.42%	4.57%	4.33%	4.31%	4.04%	4.13%	3.52%	3.25%	2.60%	1.93%	1.42%	1.10%
Minnesota Vikings	0.50%	0.58%	1.09%	1.26%	2.10%	1.83%	2.37%	2.60%	2.61%	2.88%	3.79%	3.63%	4.35%	4.71%	4.27%	4.18%	4.40%	4.25%	4.42%	4.75%	4.20%	4.32%	4.55%	4.46%	4.28%	3.91%	3.20%	3.09%	2.83%	2.22%	1.38%	0.99%
Denver Broncos	0.44%	0.95%	0.95%	1.53%	1.52%	2.20%	2.47%	2.54%	2.57%	3.20%	3.67%	3.64%	3.62%	4.01%	4.00%	4.12%	3.96%	4.54%	4.50%	4.44%	4.89%	4.59%	4.69%	4.41%	4.22%	3.70%	3.25%	3.55%	2.97%	2.23%	1.65%	0.98%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.32%	0.58%	0.85%	1.14%	1.46%	1.74%	2.21%	2.34%	2.42%	3.10%	3.10%	3.16%	3.65%	3.71%	3.36%	4.19%	3.82%	4.47%	4.62%	4.24%	4.15%	4.71%	5.11%	4.10%	4.80%	4.42%	4.14%	3.60%	3.75%	3.03%	2.43%	1.28%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.21%	0.57%	0.56%	0.98%	0.95%	1.25%	1.42%	1.77%	2.04%	2.11%	2.56%	2.92%	2.98%	3.08%	3.09%	3.60%	4.44%	4.11%	4.55%	4.56%	4.95%	4.76%	5.20%	5.23%	5.21%	4.99%	4.46%	5.07%	4.35%	3.83%	2.35%	1.85%
Chicago Bears	0.17%	0.28%	0.37%	0.63%	0.83%	0.86%	1.17%	1.28%	1.77%	1.73%	2.20%	2.24%	2.83%	2.95%	3.26%	3.51%	3.89%	4.26%	4.06%	4.42%	4.93%	5.07%	5.56%	5.06%	5.23%	6.00%	5.40%	4.67%	4.67%	4.43%	3.69%	2.58%
Carolina Panthers	0.17%	0.18%	0.35%	0.54%	0.63%	0.88%	1.16%	1.08%	1.67%	1.95%	1.91%	2.26%	2.53%	3.05%	3.15%	3.63%	3.87%	3.93%	4.67%	4.31%	5.02%	5.10%	5.20%	5.02%	5.40%	5.08%	6.22%	5.75%	5.34%	4.40%	3.43%	2.12%
Atlanta Falcons	0.17%	0.22%	0.41%	0.36%	0.66%	0.79%	1.05%	1.37%	1.52%	1.87%	2.46%	2.26%	2.49%	2.63%	3.16%	3.41%	3.86%	3.99%	4.07%	4.63%	5.18%	5.09%	5.15%	5.80%	5.60%	5.27%	5.85%	5.30%	5.17%	4.40%	3.49%	2.32%
Washington Football Team	0.07%	0.33%	0.35%	0.44%	0.86%	0.84%	1.14%	1.35%	1.54%	1.80%	2.02%	2.28%	2.94%	2.71%	3.12%	3.52%	3.71%	3.81%	3.96%	4.26%	4.31%	4.63%	5.16%	4.91%	5.55%	5.36%	5.92%	5.67%	5.42%	5.03%	4.06%	2.93%
New York Giants	0.01%	0.07%	0.14%	0.23%	0.33%	0.49%	0.53%	0.83%	0.88%	0.99%	1.12%	1.42%	1.64%	1.80%	2.01%	2.37%	2.96%	2.74%	3.10%	3.23%	4.17%	4.01%	4.59%	4.83%	5.29%	5.68%	7.09%	7.19%	7.93%	8.15%	7.78%	6.40%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%	0.17%	0.22%	0.35%	0.32%	0.37%	0.60%	0.73%	0.79%	0.93%	1.17%	1.21%	1.68%	2.01%	2.13%	2.58%	2.74%	3.34%	4.12%	5.04%	5.69%	5.85%	7.12%	6.92%	8.82%	8.29%	9.25%	8.94%	8.47%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.01%	—	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%	0.14%	0.13%	0.09%	0.20%	0.22%	0.29%	0.38%	0.64%	0.60%	0.71%	0.95%	1.08%	1.41%	1.70%	1.98%	2.62%	3.29%	4.41%	5.17%	6.65%	7.73%	10.98%	13.70%	15.25%	19.56%
Jacksonville Jaguars	—	—	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.10%	0.06%	0.08%	0.18%	0.14%	0.20%	0.25%	0.22%	0.26%	0.46%	0.60%	0.61%	0.77%	0.99%	1.20%	1.48%	2.14%	2.47%	3.19%	4.11%	4.89%	6.26%	7.07%	9.62%	12.15%	17.25%	23.20%
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	0.03%	—	0.07%	0.05%	0.08%	0.14%	0.08%	0.13%	0.18%	0.29%	0.31%	0.49%	0.61%	0.72%	1.02%	1.07%	1.31%	1.78%	1.72%	2.49%	3.13%	3.81%	4.34%	5.71%	6.86%	9.97%	12.47%	19.14%	22.00%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills	31.82%	19.34%	12.33%	8.02%	9.26%	5.93%	4.35%	8.95%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.82%	18.46%	15.14%	12.05%	6.96%	6.04%	4.94%	15.59%
Baltimore Ravens	12.61%	13.32%	13.93%	11.05%	9.03%	8.04%	6.75%	25.27%
Indianapolis Colts	7.84%	10.33%	12.86%	18.26%	6.79%	7.12%	7.59%	29.21%
Tennessee Titans	7.25%	10.19%	12.66%	17.28%	6.62%	7.45%	7.80%	30.75%
New England Patriots	4.58%	5.08%	4.45%	3.23%	13.29%	11.04%	9.88%	48.45%
Cleveland Browns	3.12%	4.84%	5.40%	5.25%	7.96%	8.65%	8.15%	56.63%
Miami Dolphins	2.62%	2.83%	2.89%	2.56%	9.36%	8.80%	9.70%	61.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.43%	4.04%	5.29%	4.68%	6.38%	7.37%	7.81%	62.00%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.38%	3.61%	4.09%	4.31%	7.53%	8.24%	8.07%	61.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.80%	3.40%	4.51%	4.33%	5.47%	6.91%	7.47%	66.11%
Denver Broncos	1.61%	2.73%	3.32%	3.82%	6.20%	7.39%	8.04%	66.89%
Las Vegas Raiders	1.02%	1.60%	2.25%	2.79%	4.23%	5.01%	6.21%	76.89%
Houston Texans	0.07%	0.18%	0.56%	1.78%	0.56%	1.16%	2.01%	93.68%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.01%	0.12%	0.10%	0.19%	0.48%	0.72%	98.36%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.04%	0.20%	0.49%	0.17%	0.37%	0.51%	98.21%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.67%	19.21%	9.58%	2.82%	13.85%	6.02%	3.16%	4.69%
Green Bay Packers	19.35%	23.64%	23.93%	14.27%	2.54%	3.43%	3.52%	9.32%
New Orleans Saints	10.78%	7.57%	4.18%	1.39%	25.57%	15.76%	9.98%	24.77%
Los Angeles Rams	9.82%	14.02%	11.39%	4.13%	11.71%	12.08%	9.51%	27.34%
Arizona Cardinals	7.05%	11.41%	9.81%	3.72%	12.51%	12.34%	10.12%	33.04%
Dallas Cowboys	3.41%	6.88%	13.04%	29.67%	1.44%	2.92%	5.19%	37.45%
Seattle Seahawks	3.34%	5.52%	5.86%	2.52%	8.83%	10.34%	10.15%	53.44%
San Francisco 49ers	1.98%	3.62%	4.26%	1.55%	6.70%	8.73%	9.39%	63.77%
Minnesota Vikings	1.07%	2.44%	4.54%	4.05%	5.05%	7.34%	9.41%	66.10%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.77%	1.98%	5.47%	15.75%	1.35%	2.94%	4.80%	66.94%
Chicago Bears	0.47%	1.16%	2.26%	2.39%	2.23%	4.37%	6.03%	81.09%
Washington Football Team	0.42%	0.83%	2.84%	10.62%	0.91%	2.11%	3.93%	78.34%
Carolina Panthers	0.41%	0.58%	0.63%	0.29%	3.34%	4.84%	6.08%	83.83%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%	0.73%	0.42%	0.36%	3.38%	4.98%	5.93%	83.82%
New York Giants	0.08%	0.38%	1.65%	6.21%	0.43%	1.46%	2.20%	87.59%
Detroit Lions	—	0.03%	0.14%	0.26%	0.16%	0.34%	0.60%	98.47%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	77.76%	77.76%	50.17%	30.69%	17.91%
Buffalo Bills	71.16%	71.16%	45.58%	27.32%	15.00%
Kansas City Chiefs	65.17%	65.17%	40.81%	24.53%	13.59%
Green Bay Packers	71.33%	67.97%	42.20%	23.80%	12.91%
Los Angeles Rams	62.84%	46.04%	23.32%	11.44%	5.51%
Tennessee Titans	62.00%	42.12%	21.55%	10.14%	4.61%
Dallas Cowboys	59.14%	37.33%	18.19%	8.69%	4.26%
New Orleans Saints	64.45%	42.62%	19.47%	8.66%	4.21%
Indianapolis Colts	62.95%	40.72%	19.70%	8.85%	3.52%
New England Patriots	46.97%	28.79%	13.77%	6.59%	2.97%
Baltimore Ravens	62.12%	41.03%	17.12%	7.01%	2.77%
Arizona Cardinals	59.91%	34.91%	13.53%	5.04%	2.10%
San Francisco 49ers	34.25%	18.52%	8.36%	3.40%	1.61%
Seattle Seahawks	43.22%	22.67%	8.80%	3.45%	1.57%
Miami Dolphins	36.14%	19.69%	8.33%	3.61%	1.42%
Cincinnati Bengals	32.09%	15.99%	6.55%	2.89%	1.15%
Cleveland Browns	40.25%	18.68%	6.99%	2.73%	0.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	35.57%	17.74%	6.82%	2.54%	0.85%
Minnesota Vikings	32.83%	13.33%	4.95%	1.67%	0.74%
Philadelphia Eagles	32.29%	14.13%	4.71%	1.78%	0.70%
Los Angeles Chargers	35.85%	16.74%	6.08%	1.88%	0.70%
Las Vegas Raiders	22.09%	8.89%	3.02%	0.88%	0.28%
Denver Broncos	31.50%	11.21%	3.25%	0.91%	0.23%
Washington Football Team	21.24%	7.49%	2.12%	0.59%	0.18%
Chicago Bears	18.44%	5.40%	1.55%	0.33%	0.12%
Atlanta Falcons	15.80%	4.56%	1.23%	0.16%	0.05%
Carolina Panthers	15.76%	4.28%	0.85%	0.20%	0.04%
New York Giants	12.33%	2.66%	0.51%	0.09%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.78%	0.33%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%
Houston Texans	6.25%	1.37%	0.30%	0.08%	0.01%
New York Jets	1.62%	0.37%	0.09%	0.01%	—
Detroit Lions	1.53%	0.33%	0.04%	0.01%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.51%	2.31%	3.09%	2.60%	0.64%	2.83%	0.17%	1.70%	1.63%	2.44%	1.98%	2.28%	0.14%	2.36%	2.74%
Buffalo Bills	3.72%		2.60%	3.19%	3.16%	0.85%	3.96%	0.28%	2.18%	1.80%	3.00%	3.51%	4.30%	0.25%	2.85%	3.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.18%	1.14%		1.08%	0.92%	0.27%	1.69%	0.06%	1.32%	0.66%	0.99%	0.80%	0.97%	0.05%	0.81%	1.25%
Cleveland Browns	2.16%	1.15%	0.75%		1.19%	0.21%	2.09%	0.07%	1.39%	0.79%	1.00%	0.98%	1.19%	0.05%	0.95%	1.59%
Denver Broncos	1.55%	0.89%	0.47%	0.83%		0.25%	1.17%	0.02%	0.84%	0.24%	0.65%	0.48%	0.57%	0.04%	0.62%	0.98%
Houston Texans	0.17%	0.10%	0.10%	0.12%	0.12%		0.09%	0.01%	0.12%	0.05%	0.08%	0.06%	0.12%		0.05%	0.11%
Indianapolis Colts	3.40%	2.33%	1.86%	3.14%	2.59%	0.38%		0.15%	2.21%	1.73%	2.62%	2.70%	3.00%	0.18%	2.46%	4.13%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.07%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.56%	2.57%	2.94%	4.15%	3.65%	0.71%	3.83%	0.19%		2.84%	4.05%	2.93%	4.10%	0.22%	3.73%	3.88%
Las Vegas Raiders	1.18%	0.65%	0.45%	0.60%	0.43%	0.13%	0.98%	0.05%	0.69%		0.36%	0.46%	0.55%	0.03%	0.55%	0.76%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.46%	1.11%	0.88%	1.22%	0.61%	0.15%	1.52%	0.03%	1.46%	0.51%		0.79%	0.88%	0.02%	1.15%	1.57%
Miami Dolphins	2.45%	1.69%	1.03%	1.18%	1.32%	0.33%	2.23%	0.11%	1.54%	0.57%	0.96%		0.79%	0.02%	0.93%	1.92%
New England Patriots	3.32%	2.72%	1.47%	1.86%	1.52%	0.37%	3.18%	0.16%	2.25%	0.86%	1.35%	0.90%		0.01%	1.37%	2.87%
New York Jets	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%		0.07%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.43%	1.36%	0.90%	1.17%	1.02%	0.26%	1.58%	0.04%	1.14%	0.74%	1.19%	0.85%	1.02%	0.04%		1.57%
Tennessee Titans	4.00%	2.64%	2.11%	3.01%	2.72%	0.40%	4.83%	0.12%	2.36%	1.78%	2.77%	2.59%	2.97%	0.22%	2.35%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals		0.97%	0.87%	1.33%	2.89%	0.15%	2.50%	3.99%	2.18%	2.52%	1.00%	1.95%	1.73%	2.49%	1.63%	1.66%
Atlanta Falcons	0.47%		0.06%	0.12%	0.47%	0.01%	0.58%	0.36%	0.22%	0.41%	0.15%	0.31%	0.10%	0.25%	0.35%	0.32%
Carolina Panthers	0.37%	0.08%		0.12%	0.48%	0.03%	0.59%	0.44%	0.12%	0.18%	0.23%	0.33%	0.12%	0.24%	0.31%	0.23%
Chicago Bears	0.64%	0.14%	0.15%		0.28%		0.74%	0.58%	0.21%	0.48%	0.13%	0.33%	0.32%	0.34%	0.36%	0.23%
Dallas Cowboys	4.33%	1.54%	1.69%	1.29%		0.17%	1.43%	3.46%	2.22%	6.23%	0.71%	1.75%	2.11%	3.23%	2.60%	1.16%
Detroit Lions	0.04%				0.03%			0.03%	0.03%	0.07%		0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	5.76%	2.67%	2.60%	3.07%	2.31%	0.27%		4.82%	4.94%	6.58%	0.94%	1.82%	3.92%	4.88%	2.65%	1.39%
Los Angeles Rams	5.35%	1.30%	1.31%	1.97%	3.65%	0.14%	3.22%		2.63%	3.37%	1.34%	2.73%	2.22%	3.30%	1.79%	1.90%
Minnesota Vikings	1.46%	0.30%	0.40%	0.30%	0.99%		1.86%	1.59%		1.09%	0.25%	0.81%	0.77%	1.05%	0.90%	0.49%
New Orleans Saints	2.70%	0.68%	0.83%	1.12%	4.91%	0.10%	3.82%	2.22%	1.83%		1.91%	3.44%	1.32%	1.93%	2.61%	2.42%
New York Giants	0.32%	0.11%	0.11%	0.15%	0.10%		0.10%	0.23%	0.15%	0.49%		0.11%	0.20%	0.23%	0.22%	0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.79%	0.58%	0.53%	0.50%	0.88%	0.08%	0.77%	1.48%	0.85%	2.37%	0.17%		0.89%	1.10%	1.06%	0.31%
San Francisco 49ers	1.86%	0.49%	0.43%	0.64%	1.74%	0.07%	2.21%	1.95%	0.99%	1.41%	0.52%	0.97%		1.29%	1.15%	0.82%
Seattle Seahawks	2.68%	0.62%	0.67%	0.69%	1.92%	0.05%	2.11%	2.08%	1.16%	1.62%	0.84%	1.32%	1.16%		1.36%	1.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.37%	1.73%	1.90%	1.89%	4.21%	0.12%	2.37%	2.83%	2.59%	4.68%	1.36%	2.75%	2.35%	2.83%		2.11%
Washington Football Team	0.91%	0.41%	0.34%	0.32%	0.36%	0.01%	0.41%	0.56%	0.45%	1.11%	0.20%	0.30%	0.48%	0.70%	0.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		2.36%	0.72%	1.13%	0.85%	0.12%	2.34%	0.02%	2.81%	0.63%	0.85%	1.03%	1.29%	0.09%	0.84%	2.04%
Buffalo Bills	5.73%		2.56%	3.05%	1.95%	0.29%	5.30%	0.07%	5.89%	1.66%	2.77%	3.26%	4.41%	0.05%	2.73%	5.86%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.63%	1.41%		0.23%	0.23%	0.06%	0.77%	0.01%	1.04%	0.14%	0.33%	0.24%	0.42%	0.01%	0.22%	0.81%
Cleveland Browns	0.80%	1.35%	0.10%		0.27%	0.06%	1.11%	0.02%	0.90%	0.16%	0.35%	0.41%	0.51%		0.26%	0.69%
Denver Broncos	0.36%	0.60%	0.08%	0.11%		0.02%	0.28%		0.52%	0.07%	0.09%	0.15%	0.33%		0.22%	0.42%
Houston Texans	0.04%	0.02%			0.02%				0.04%	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%	0.03%		0.05%	0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	2.72%	3.31%	0.96%	1.42%	0.83%	0.03%		0.01%	3.29%	0.59%	1.04%	1.10%	1.45%	0.03%	1.25%	1.67%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.02%	0.01%									0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.80%	6.08%	2.49%	2.35%	1.56%	0.29%	5.07%	0.07%		0.99%	2.46%	2.70%	3.42%	0.05%	2.35%	5.13%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.39%	0.59%	0.14%	0.22%	0.05%		0.25%	0.01%	0.52%		0.12%	0.16%	0.17%		0.12%	0.28%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.84%	1.10%	0.18%	0.36%	0.10%	0.02%	0.56%	0.01%	0.83%	0.12%		0.34%	0.46%	0.03%	0.46%	0.67%
Miami Dolphins	1.11%	1.47%	0.32%	0.56%	0.26%	0.02%	0.85%	0.01%	1.41%	0.22%	0.42%		0.43%		0.47%	0.78%
New England Patriots	1.94%	2.56%	0.63%	0.62%	0.60%	0.05%	1.44%		2.00%	0.39%	0.77%	0.52%			0.75%	1.50%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.02%					0.03%		0.01%							0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.80%	1.09%	0.19%	0.37%	0.34%	0.04%	0.69%	0.03%	1.15%	0.17%	0.35%	0.38%	0.54%			0.68%
Tennessee Titans	2.73%	3.60%	1.06%	1.27%	0.90%	0.07%	2.33%	0.03%	3.95%	0.72%	1.07%	1.04%	1.56%	0.02%	1.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals		0.21%	0.24%	0.35%	1.45%		2.45%	1.55%	0.56%	1.64%	0.13%	0.73%	0.51%	0.75%	2.52%	0.44%
Atlanta Falcons	0.18%			0.03%	0.06%		0.24%	0.14%	0.02%	0.10%	0.01%	0.05%	0.04%	0.09%	0.24%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers	0.06%	0.02%			0.07%		0.09%	0.13%	0.03%	0.12%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.07%	0.16%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.26%	0.04%	0.03%		0.12%		0.16%	0.21%		0.22%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.13%	0.28%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	2.03%	0.21%	0.21%	0.30%		0.02%	3.80%	2.37%	0.70%	1.94%	0.05%	0.32%	1.12%	1.20%	3.75%	0.17%
Detroit Lions				0.01%				0.01%							0.02%
Green Bay Packers	5.78%	0.84%	0.84%	0.77%	5.26%	0.02%		6.22%	1.67%	4.74%	0.56%	2.51%	2.61%	3.24%	5.58%	1.56%
Los Angeles Rams	2.51%	0.24%	0.42%	0.50%	2.47%	0.04%	4.48%		0.95%	3.13%	0.20%	1.19%	0.91%	1.38%	4.25%	0.65%
Minnesota Vikings	0.54%	0.04%	0.06%	0.03%	0.46%		0.66%	0.60%		0.54%	0.12%	0.18%	0.13%	0.27%	1.23%	0.09%
New Orleans Saints	2.15%	0.35%	0.31%	0.41%	1.59%	0.03%	3.03%	2.58%	0.80%		0.10%	0.77%	0.96%	1.47%	4.51%	0.41%
New York Giants	0.10%			0.01%	0.01%		0.10%	0.04%	0.01%	0.09%		0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.60%	0.03%	0.03%	0.05%	0.19%		0.84%	0.60%	0.24%	0.54%	0.03%		0.19%	0.23%	1.11%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	0.71%	0.09%	0.10%	0.09%	0.81%	0.03%	1.56%	0.77%	0.23%	1.13%	0.13%	0.40%		0.42%	1.70%	0.19%
Seattle Seahawks	0.85%	0.15%	0.15%	0.16%	0.97%	0.03%	1.64%	0.72%	0.26%	1.14%	0.13%	0.36%	0.30%		1.76%	0.18%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5.37%	1.04%	1.02%	1.07%	5.61%	0.12%	6.32%	6.53%	2.81%	7.59%	0.65%	2.81%	3.23%	4.41%		1.59%
Washington Football Team	0.24%	0.07%	0.02%	0.07%	0.07%		0.40%	0.25%	0.10%	0.23%	0.02%	0.01%	0.07%	0.13%	0.44%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.64%	0.20%	0.26%	0.19%	0.01%	0.68%		1.45%	0.18%	0.31%	0.35%	0.57%		0.20%	0.97%
Buffalo Bills	3.32%		0.98%	1.40%	0.80%	0.08%	3.76%		6.89%	0.69%	1.28%	1.26%	1.83%	0.05%	1.22%	3.76%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.25%	0.67%		0.05%	0.05%	0.03%	0.30%		0.52%	0.05%	0.11%	0.27%	0.19%		0.12%	0.28%
Cleveland Browns	0.21%	0.72%	0.10%		0.07%		0.26%		0.56%	0.07%	0.11%	0.12%	0.20%		0.07%	0.24%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.16%	0.07%	0.06%			0.15%		0.11%	0.01%		0.09%	0.04%		0.03%	0.12%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.04%											0.01%			0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.87%	2.23%	0.39%	0.38%	0.25%	0.01%			1.72%	0.23%	0.42%	0.39%	0.63%		0.43%	0.90%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.01%					0.01%		0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.67%	7.30%	1.04%	0.91%	0.42%	0.03%	2.95%	0.01%		0.35%	0.97%	1.27%	2.25%	0.03%	1.16%	3.17%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.10%	0.15%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	0.16%		0.09%		0.02%	0.03%	0.06%		0.04%	0.14%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.14%	0.46%	0.06%	0.12%	0.03%	0.01%	0.25%		0.24%	0.03%		0.08%	0.20%		0.03%	0.23%
Miami Dolphins	0.37%	0.59%	0.17%	0.23%	0.12%		0.34%		0.60%	0.09%	0.13%		0.23%		0.26%	0.48%
New England Patriots	0.73%	1.28%	0.23%	0.29%	0.10%	0.02%	0.74%		1.47%	0.18%	0.29%	0.19%			0.29%	0.78%
New York Jets																0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.22%	0.64%	0.03%	0.08%	0.10%		0.32%		0.46%	0.06%	0.05%	0.10%	0.16%			0.32%
Tennessee Titans	1.14%	2.37%	0.36%	0.45%	0.19%	0.02%	0.93%		2.16%	0.20%	0.51%	0.57%	0.81%		0.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals		0.04%	0.06%	0.06%	0.56%		1.02%	0.54%	0.22%	0.62%	0.02%	0.18%	0.19%	0.23%	1.23%	0.07%
Atlanta Falcons	0.05%			0.01%			0.02%	0.03%				0.02%		0.01%	0.02%
Carolina Panthers	0.02%				0.03%			0.05%	0.02%	0.03%		0.01%		0.01%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	0.04%				0.04%		0.09%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%		0.01%		0.01%	0.04%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.72%	0.09%	0.08%	0.21%			1.94%	1.02%	0.42%	0.89%	0.02%	0.18%	0.41%	0.41%	2.23%	0.07%
Detroit Lions					0.01%
Green Bay Packers	2.02%	0.22%	0.17%	0.18%	2.58%	0.01%		3.02%	0.74%	3.23%	0.11%	0.85%	1.22%	1.16%	7.94%	0.35%
Los Angeles Rams	0.70%	0.16%	0.05%	0.17%	1.15%	0.01%	2.66%		0.33%	1.35%	0.02%	0.31%	0.51%	0.57%	3.23%	0.22%
Minnesota Vikings	0.12%	0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	0.11%		0.30%	0.17%		0.26%	0.01%	0.07%	0.06%	0.09%	0.38%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.75%	0.09%	0.04%	0.11%	0.87%		1.67%	1.23%	0.37%		0.06%	0.21%	0.49%	0.69%	1.92%	0.16%
New York Giants				0.01%			0.03%	0.01%	0.01%				0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.12%	0.04%		0.04%	0.09%		0.31%	0.20%	0.11%	0.18%			0.12%	0.12%	0.44%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.25%	0.03%	0.03%		0.35%		0.62%	0.33%	0.07%	0.43%	0.02%	0.04%		0.12%	1.05%	0.06%
Seattle Seahawks	0.33%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.36%		0.74%	0.35%	0.13%	0.39%		0.10%	0.12%		0.82%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.32%	0.32%	0.18%	0.37%	3.30%	0.01%	8.91%	4.88%	0.80%	3.32%	0.16%	0.94%	1.79%	1.86%		0.53%
Washington Football Team	0.05%	0.01%			0.05%		0.09%	0.03%	0.05%	0.06%		0.01%	0.04%	0.06%	0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals			0.15%	0.44%			0.08%	0.10%		0.03%				0.32%	0.01%	0.37%	0.01%	0.03%		0.07%		0.13%					0.06%				0.30%
Atlanta Falcons				0.02%												0.02%		0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	0.14%	0.01%			0.02%	0.02%			0.26%			0.59%							0.26%		0.04%		0.27%			0.08%		0.14%	0.16%	0.76%		0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.97%	0.07%			0.03%	0.03%			1.34%			3.52%							1.79%		0.25%		1.31%	0.03%		0.35%		0.56%	0.58%	4.05%		0.12%
Carolina Panthers			0.01%															0.01%		0.01%							0.01%
Chicago Bears				0.02%				0.01%						0.01%		0.04%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%											0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%								0.10%			0.23%							0.17%		0.06%		0.13%			0.02%		0.04%	0.02%	0.30%		0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.04%				0.02%	0.02%			0.11%			0.21%							0.18%		0.02%		0.05%	0.01%		0.02%		0.01%	0.03%	0.22%		0.03%
Dallas Cowboys			0.36%	0.97%			0.11%	0.19%		0.05%			0.01%	0.39%		0.96%	0.05%	0.13%		0.16%		0.30%					0.13%				0.45%
Denver Broncos	0.03%								0.01%			0.05%							0.04%		0.01%		0.02%			0.02%		0.01%		0.04%
Green Bay Packers			0.96%	3.31%			0.46%	0.35%		0.18%			0.02%	1.14%	0.01%	2.94%	0.14%	0.28%		0.53%		0.84%			0.01%		0.46%				1.28%
Houston Texans																														0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.15%				0.02%	0.03%			0.35%			0.80%							0.29%		0.05%		0.33%			0.07%		0.19%	0.17%	1.04%		0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars																			0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.89%	0.02%			0.05%	0.05%			1.21%			2.93%							1.79%		0.27%		1.37%	0.02%		0.31%		0.50%	0.54%	3.53%		0.11%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.05%					0.01%						0.07%							0.01%				0.03%			0.01%		0.02%	0.02%	0.05%		0.01%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.04%								0.06%			0.17%							0.15%		0.02%		0.07%			0.01%		0.02%	0.04%	0.12%
Los Angeles Rams			0.58%	1.38%			0.18%	0.15%		0.05%			0.01%	0.61%		0.94%	0.08%	0.06%		0.28%		0.37%					0.23%				0.59%
Miami Dolphins	0.08%					0.01%			0.21%			0.33%							0.20%		0.02%		0.11%			0.04%		0.08%	0.04%	0.29%		0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.06%	0.21%			0.04%	0.02%		0.01%				0.05%		0.15%	0.01%	0.01%		0.03%		0.04%					0.01%				0.10%
New England Patriots	0.20%					0.01%			0.25%			0.67%							0.35%		0.07%		0.28%	0.01%		0.07%		0.10%	0.11%	0.84%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints			0.32%	0.93%			0.11%	0.11%		0.09%				0.45%		0.84%	0.05%	0.07%		0.19%		0.40%					0.14%				0.51%
New York Giants																0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.06%	0.13%			0.03%	0.08%		0.02%				0.07%		0.14%		0.01%		0.02%		0.06%					0.01%				0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.01%			0.01%				0.09%			0.20%							0.11%		0.02%		0.07%	0.01%		0.01%			0.04%	0.22%
San Francisco 49ers			0.11%	0.37%			0.04%	0.04%		0.02%				0.27%		0.33%	0.03%	0.02%		0.08%		0.14%					0.03%				0.13%
Seattle Seahawks			0.08%	0.38%			0.05%	0.11%		0.01%				0.18%		0.30%	0.02%	0.04%		0.08%		0.06%					0.06%				0.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			1.53%	4.14%			0.63%	0.58%		0.22%			0.03%	1.82%		3.86%	0.20%	0.49%		0.70%		1.28%					0.55%				1.88%
Tennessee Titans	0.22%				0.01%	0.03%			0.44%		0.01%	1.12%							0.58%		0.10%		0.41%			0.07%		0.12%	0.13%	1.31%		0.06%
Washington Football Team			0.02%	0.02%			0.01%	0.02%						0.02%		0.04%		0.01%		0.03%											0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Green Bay Packers	100.00%	64.30%	34.38%	19.16%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.71%	46.68%	26.57%	15.87%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	71.63%	42.09%	26.84%	14.08%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills	63.35%	34.81%	21.73%	11.80%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tennessee Titans	100.00%	57.26%	24.74%	10.27%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	57.88%	25.29%	11.79%	6.35%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	61.60%	26.86%	12.42%	5.97%	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	36.65%	18.79%	8.73%	3.96%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cincinnati Bengals	57.76%	22.16%	8.95%	3.39%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	42.12%	15.95%	6.61%	2.89%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Arizona Cardinals	38.40%	13.55%	5.20%	2.09%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	28.37%	11.57%	4.59%	1.73%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Las Vegas Raiders	42.24%	13.32%	4.42%	1.32%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles	24.29%	7.37%	3.03%	1.12%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills					63.35%
Cincinnati Bengals				57.76%
Kansas City Chiefs						71.63%
Las Vegas Raiders		42.24%
New England Patriots	36.65%
Pittsburgh Steelers			28.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals			38.40%
Dallas Cowboys					57.88%
Los Angeles Rams	61.60%
Philadelphia Eagles						24.29%
San Francisco 49ers		42.12%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers				75.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills		7.02%	22.14%	5.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.99%		4.77%		2.69%		11.71%
Kansas City Chiefs	23.53%	10.17%		8.39%
Las Vegas Raiders	2.02%		2.63%		1.72%		6.95%
New England Patriots		3.47%		2.81%			12.51%
Pittsburgh Steelers							11.57%
Tennessee Titans		14.94%		12.07%	13.45%	16.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals		2.12%	5.91%			1.90%	3.62%
Dallas Cowboys	3.39%			4.38%			17.52%
Green Bay Packers	11.12%			15.51%	16.92%	20.75%
Los Angeles Rams		4.44%	11.01%			3.52%	7.89%
Philadelphia Eagles			7.37%
San Francisco 49ers	1.87%		11.41%	2.67%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.47%	26.03%		12.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills		3.49%		2.57%		3.46%	12.21%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.16%		1.82%		1.19%	1.38%	2.40%
Kansas City Chiefs		4.24%		2.59%	5.48%		14.53%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.88%		0.91%		0.49%	0.73%	1.41%
New England Patriots		1.15%	3.42%	0.78%		1.41%	1.97%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.59%	1.06%		0.74%	1.20%
Tennessee Titans	8.45%	3.27%	9.10%	2.22%	1.70%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals		1.03%	1.70%		0.66%	0.72%	1.09%
Dallas Cowboys	1.42%		6.68%	2.34%	1.35%
Green Bay Packers	3.52%	9.54%		5.84%		1.88%	13.60%
Los Angeles Rams		1.89%	4.67%		1.55%	1.55%	2.76%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.43%	1.04%		0.92%		0.64%
San Francisco 49ers	0.61%		1.24%	1.32%	0.78%		2.66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.37%		15.63%	4.02%		4.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	New England Patriots	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans
Arizona Cardinals		0.40%	0.27%			0.50%	0.14%		0.21%		0.06%			0.51%
Buffalo Bills	0.84%			1.25%	3.94%			1.63%		0.44%		0.79%	2.91%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.19%			0.40%	1.05%			0.58%		0.09%		0.35%	0.73%
Dallas Cowboys		1.24%	0.64%			1.50%	0.28%		0.62%		0.33%			1.74%
Green Bay Packers		3.72%	1.88%			4.41%	1.15%		1.65%		1.12%			5.23%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.91%			1.71%	4.63%			1.98%		0.59%		1.10%	3.16%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.12%			0.14%	0.34%			0.18%		0.09%		0.13%	0.32%
Los Angeles Rams		1.15%	0.66%			1.28%	0.40%		0.56%		0.33%			1.59%
New England Patriots	0.23%			0.52%	1.20%			0.56%		0.21%		0.25%	0.99%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.19%	0.11%			0.18%	0.08%		0.06%		0.04%			0.46%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.13%			0.20%	0.62%			0.26%		0.08%		0.17%	0.27%
San Francisco 49ers		0.41%	0.31%			0.77%	0.19%		0.28%		0.23%			0.70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		2.82%	1.69%			4.12%	0.86%		1.39%		0.75%			4.24%
Tennessee Titans	0.69%			1.22%	3.44%			1.26%		0.41%		0.93%	2.32%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Green Bay Packers 19.16% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

32.27%

Win Prob

64.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

39.56%

Win Prob

46.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

27.30%

Win Prob

60.32%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15.87% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.71%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

55.76%

Win Prob

59.77%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

58.83%

Win Prob

53.47%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

26.72%

Win Prob

64.63%

Kansas City Chiefs 14.08% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.63%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

55.90%

Win Prob

51.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

54.14%

Win Prob

61.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

32.88%

Win Prob

51.22%

Buffalo Bills 11.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.35%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

63.60%

Win Prob

48.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

56.19%

Win Prob

59.10%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

33.39%

Win Prob

51.44%

Tennessee Titans 10.27% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

29.34%

Win Prob

59.22%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.78%

Win Prob

38.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

33.50%

Win Prob

39.68%

Dallas Cowboys 6.35% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.88%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

69.28%

Win Prob

40.23%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

56.66%

Win Prob

41.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

27.40%

Win Prob

58.78%

Los Angeles Rams 5.97% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.60%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

40.99%

Win Prob

41.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

37.60%

Win Prob

44.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

26.63%

Win Prob

55.79%

New England Patriots 3.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.65%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

66.58%

Win Prob

48.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

39.18%

Win Prob

38.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

30.30%

Win Prob

42.11%

Cincinnati Bengals 3.39% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.76%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

52.84%

Win Prob

43.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

26.82%

Win Prob

42.33%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

30.97%

Win Prob

35.84%

San Francisco 49ers 2.89% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.12%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

71.54%

Win Prob

35.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

40.24%

Win Prob

36.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

26.64%

Win Prob

41.18%

Arizona Cardinals 2.09% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.40%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

43.62%

Win Prob

34.70%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

32.69%

Win Prob

32.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

24.40%

Win Prob

42.50%

Pittsburgh Steelers 1.73% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.37%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

34.64%

Win Prob

31.49%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

35.84%

Win Prob

35.63%

Las Vegas Raiders 1.32% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.24%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

52.18%

Win Prob

36.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

31.90%

Win Prob

38.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

25.76%

Win Prob

22.82%

Philadelphia Eagles 1.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.29%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

34.32%

Win Prob

43.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

41.07%

Win Prob

52.87%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2021-09-12	@ Tennessee Titans	W 38-13	1491.79	1533.88	42.80%	56.69%	+30.06	1-0
2021-09-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-33	1521.85	1470.58	57.97%	41.52%	+4.41	2-0
2021-09-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-19	1526.26	1348.14	72.56%	26.93%	+9.93	3-0
2021-10-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 37-20	1536.19	1603.58	39.28%	60.21%	+26.33	4-0
2021-10-10	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-10	1562.52	1489.20	61.02%	38.47%	+10.81	5-0
2021-10-17	@ Cleveland Browns	W 37-14	1573.33	1543.79	53.06%	46.43%	+23.65	6-0
2021-10-24	Houston Texans	W 31-5	1596.98	1383.39	77.69%	21.81%	+11.83	7-0
2021-10-28	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1608.81	1627.48	47.99%	51.50%	-8.82	7-1
2021-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-17	1599.99	1480.40	65.45%	34.05%	+13.54	8-1
2021-11-14	Carolina Panthers	L 10-34	1613.53	1437.74	73.75%	25.74%	-38.31	8-2
2021-11-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 23-13	1575.22	1512.22	57.80%	41.69%	+14.00	9-2
2021-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-22	1589.22	1439.03	69.28%	30.21%	+10.66	10-2
2021-12-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-30	1599.88	1565.82	55.55%	43.94%	-15.60	10-3
2021-12-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 12-30	1584.28	1292.98	83.38%	16.11%	-37.52	10-4
2021-12-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 16-22	1546.76	1607.55	42.00%	57.49%	-10.92	10-5
2022-01-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 25-22	1535.84	1586.57	41.59%	57.90%	+10.63	11-5
2022-01-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 30-38	1546.47	1511.70	55.65%	43.84%	-16.70	11-6
2021-09-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-32	1487.97	1429.57	58.97%	40.52%	-31.89	0-1
2021-09-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 25-48	1456.08	1647.79	24.03%	75.46%	-12.26	0-2
2021-09-26	@ New York Giants	W 17-14	1443.82	1417.65	52.57%	46.92%	+8.63	1-2
2021-10-03	Washington Football Team	L 30-34	1452.45	1457.76	49.91%	49.58%	-10.60	1-3
2021-10-10	New York Jets	W 27-20	1441.85	1354.83	62.00%	37.49%	+10.54	2-3
2021-10-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-28	1452.39	1451.17	48.99%	50.50%	+7.58	3-3
2021-10-31	Carolina Panthers	L 13-19	1459.97	1443.49	53.04%	46.45%	-13.78	3-4
2021-11-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-25	1446.19	1629.88	24.88%	74.61%	+11.18	4-4
2021-11-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-43	1457.37	1518.81	40.10%	59.39%	-26.94	4-5
2021-11-18	New England Patriots	L 0-25	1430.43	1561.15	32.62%	66.87%	-17.34	4-6
2021-11-28	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-14	1413.09	1316.94	62.35%	37.14%	+10.44	5-6
2021-12-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-30	1423.53	1658.38	21.00%	78.49%	-8.06	5-7
2021-12-12	@ Carolina Panthers	W 29-21	1415.47	1438.19	45.55%	53.94%	+16.18	6-7
2021-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-31	1431.65	1520.98	36.31%	63.18%	-16.37	6-8
2021-12-26	Detroit Lions	W 20-16	1415.28	1330.50	62.57%	36.92%	+7.85	7-8
2022-01-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 15-29	1423.13	1647.03	20.81%	78.68%	-8.29	7-9
2022-01-09	New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1414.84	1558.25	31.04%	68.46%	-10.44	7-10
2021-09-13	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 27-33	1588.86	1465.56	65.92%	33.57%	-17.13	0-1
2021-09-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 36-35	1571.73	1612.47	44.83%	54.66%	+5.80	1-1
2021-09-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 19-17	1577.53	1376.19	75.11%	24.38%	+3.67	2-1
2021-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-7	1581.20	1492.66	61.33%	38.16%	+16.22	3-1
2021-10-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-25	1597.42	1521.93	61.32%	38.18%	+9.94	4-1
2021-10-17	Los Angeles Chargers	W 34-6	1607.36	1522.18	62.62%	36.87%	+20.74	5-1
2021-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-41	1628.10	1473.54	71.34%	28.15%	-37.07	5-2
2021-11-07	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-31	1591.03	1486.37	65.19%	34.30%	+6.32	6-2
2021-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-22	1597.35	1446.05	69.42%	30.07%	-25.51	6-3
2021-11-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-13	1571.84	1440.13	67.00%	32.49%	+5.99	7-3
2021-11-28	Cleveland Browns	W 16-10	1577.83	1511.43	60.07%	39.42%	+10.26	8-3
2021-12-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-20	1588.09	1486.93	63.03%	36.47%	-6.69	8-4
2021-12-12	@ Cleveland Browns	L 22-24	1581.40	1501.17	60.19%	39.30%	-9.02	8-5
2021-12-19	Green Bay Packers	L 30-31	1572.38	1645.78	40.24%	59.25%	-4.28	8-6
2021-12-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-41	1568.10	1501.24	58.34%	41.15%	-27.68	8-7
2022-01-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 19-20	1540.42	1605.68	41.37%	58.12%	-4.39	8-8
2022-01-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1536.03	1498.34	56.06%	43.43%	-10.30	8-9
2021-09-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-23	1605.54	1528.56	61.52%	37.97%	-17.26	0-1
2021-09-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 35-0	1588.28	1531.36	56.95%	42.54%	+26.73	1-1
2021-09-26	Washington Football Team	W 43-21	1615.01	1472.51	69.92%	29.57%	+14.76	2-1
2021-10-03	Houston Texans	W 40-0	1629.77	1425.00	76.81%	22.68%	+15.27	3-1
2021-10-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-20	1645.04	1599.34	55.36%	44.13%	+19.88	4-1
2021-10-18	@ Tennessee Titans	L 31-34	1664.92	1528.89	67.54%	31.95%	-12.41	4-2
2021-10-31	Miami Dolphins	W 26-11	1652.51	1443.59	77.22%	22.27%	+9.18	5-2
2021-11-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-9	1661.69	1320.00	86.92%	12.57%	-15.97	5-3
2021-11-14	@ New York Jets	W 45-17	1645.72	1327.46	85.37%	14.12%	+7.96	6-3
2021-11-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 15-41	1653.68	1553.35	64.63%	34.86%	-34.94	6-4
2021-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-6	1618.74	1586.23	53.48%	46.01%	+24.42	7-4
2021-12-06	New England Patriots	L 10-14	1643.16	1603.59	56.33%	43.16%	-11.95	7-5
2021-12-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-33	1631.21	1666.44	43.77%	55.72%	-11.39	7-6
2021-12-19	Carolina Panthers	W 31-14	1619.82	1422.00	76.10%	23.39%	+10.27	8-6
2021-12-26	@ New England Patriots	W 33-21	1630.09	1597.93	53.43%	46.06%	+16.94	9-6
2022-01-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 29-15	1647.03	1423.13	78.68%	20.81%	+8.29	10-6
2022-01-09	New York Jets	W 27-10	1655.32	1306.13	88.16%	11.33%	+4.98	11-6
2021-09-12	New York Jets	W 19-14	1454.03	1384.65	60.48%	39.01%	+9.27	1-0
2021-09-19	New Orleans Saints	W 26-7	1463.30	1629.61	28.29%	71.20%	+32.91	2-0
2021-09-23	@ Houston Texans	W 24-9	1496.21	1442.70	56.47%	43.02%	+17.70	3-0
2021-10-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 28-36	1513.91	1486.61	52.74%	46.75%	-15.83	3-1
2021-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 18-21	1498.08	1416.78	62.10%	37.39%	-11.41	3-2
2021-10-17	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-34	1486.67	1482.63	51.26%	48.23%	-13.32	3-3
2021-10-24	@ New York Giants	L 3-25	1473.35	1394.34	60.02%	39.47%	-29.86	3-4
2021-10-31	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 19-13	1443.49	1459.97	46.45%	53.04%	+13.78	4-4
2021-11-07	New England Patriots	L 6-24	1457.27	1508.54	43.34%	56.15%	-19.53	4-5
2021-11-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-10	1437.74	1613.53	25.74%	73.75%	+38.32	5-5
2021-11-21	Washington Football Team	L 21-27	1476.06	1444.35	55.22%	44.28%	-14.35	5-6
2021-11-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-33	1461.71	1479.99	46.19%	53.30%	-23.52	5-7
2021-12-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-29	1438.19	1415.47	53.94%	45.55%	-16.19	5-8
2021-12-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-31	1422.00	1619.82	23.39%	76.10%	-10.26	5-9
2021-12-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-32	1411.74	1656.29	20.09%	79.40%	-10.91	5-10
2022-01-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-18	1400.83	1549.58	28.83%	70.66%	-8.67	5-11
2022-01-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-41	1392.16	1669.65	16.18%	83.31%	-8.44	5-12
2021-09-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-34	1490.63	1556.70	39.47%	60.03%	-18.75	0-1
2021-09-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1471.88	1437.17	55.64%	43.85%	+8.07	1-1
2021-09-26	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-26	1479.95	1524.84	42.41%	57.08%	-20.15	1-2
2021-10-03	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1459.80	1372.52	62.90%	36.59%	+12.30	2-2
2021-10-10	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 20-9	1472.10	1490.05	46.24%	53.25%	+18.74	3-2
2021-10-17	Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1490.84	1605.58	34.67%	64.82%	-11.66	3-3
2021-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-38	1479.18	1665.24	24.63%	74.86%	-15.50	3-4
2021-10-31	San Francisco 49ers	L 22-33	1463.68	1462.51	50.85%	48.64%	-17.90	3-5
2021-11-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-29	1445.78	1525.34	37.62%	61.87%	-5.65	3-6
2021-11-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-16	1440.13	1571.84	32.49%	67.00%	-5.99	3-7
2021-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-14	1434.14	1302.54	66.98%	32.51%	+4.89	4-7
2021-12-05	Arizona Cardinals	L 22-33	1439.03	1589.22	30.21%	69.28%	-10.66	4-8
2021-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 30-45	1428.37	1636.57	22.34%	77.15%	-9.20	4-9
2021-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-17	1419.17	1497.16	39.61%	59.88%	-11.91	4-10
2021-12-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 25-24	1407.26	1505.70	35.11%	64.38%	+6.83	5-10
2022-01-02	New York Giants	W 29-3	1414.09	1377.71	55.88%	43.61%	+23.62	6-10
2022-01-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-31	1437.71	1482.77	42.39%	57.10%	-16.85	6-11
2021-09-12	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-24	1426.78	1480.97	42.93%	56.56%	+10.39	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1437.17	1471.88	43.85%	55.64%	-8.07	1-1
2021-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-10	1429.10	1526.85	35.20%	64.29%	+25.52	2-1
2021-09-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-21	1454.62	1338.21	66.70%	32.79%	+6.03	3-1
2021-10-10	Green Bay Packers	L 22-25	1460.65	1599.76	31.57%	67.92%	-5.81	3-2
2021-10-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-11	1454.84	1355.31	62.81%	36.68%	+18.70	4-2
2021-10-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 41-17	1473.54	1628.10	28.15%	71.34%	+37.06	5-2
2021-10-31	@ New York Jets	L 31-34	1510.60	1323.45	73.57%	25.92%	-13.51	5-3
2021-11-07	Cleveland Browns	L 16-41	1497.09	1514.69	48.15%	51.35%	-25.56	5-4
2021-11-21	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 32-13	1471.53	1464.69	49.80%	49.69%	+22.99	6-4
2021-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-10	1494.52	1517.74	47.34%	52.15%	+30.82	7-4
2021-12-05	Los Angeles Chargers	L 22-41	1525.34	1473.89	58.00%	41.49%	-26.82	7-5
2021-12-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-26	1498.52	1512.02	48.73%	50.76%	-8.96	7-6
2021-12-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 15-10	1489.56	1479.28	50.29%	49.20%	+11.68	8-6
2021-12-26	Baltimore Ravens	W 41-21	1501.24	1568.10	41.15%	58.34%	+27.67	9-6
2022-01-02	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-31	1528.91	1670.59	31.25%	68.24%	+12.54	10-6
2022-01-09	@ Cleveland Browns	L 16-21	1541.45	1477.72	57.90%	41.59%	-13.74	10-7
2021-09-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 29-33	1518.86	1604.65	36.79%	62.70%	-7.82	0-1
2021-09-19	Houston Texans	W 31-21	1511.04	1456.50	58.43%	41.06%	+13.80	1-1
2021-09-26	Chicago Bears	W 26-6	1524.84	1479.95	57.08%	42.41%	+20.14	2-1
2021-10-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 14-7	1544.98	1489.74	56.71%	42.78%	+12.03	3-1
2021-10-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 42-47	1557.01	1508.97	55.69%	43.80%	-13.22	3-2
2021-10-17	Arizona Cardinals	L 14-37	1543.79	1573.33	46.43%	53.06%	-23.64	3-3
2021-10-21	Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1520.15	1445.74	61.17%	38.32%	+7.05	4-3
2021-10-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-15	1527.20	1512.83	52.74%	46.75%	-12.51	4-4
2021-11-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-16	1514.69	1497.09	51.35%	48.15%	+25.56	5-4
2021-11-14	@ New England Patriots	L 7-45	1540.25	1528.07	50.56%	48.93%	-33.09	5-5
2021-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 13-10	1507.16	1306.80	76.36%	23.13%	+4.27	6-5
2021-11-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-16	1511.43	1577.83	39.42%	60.07%	-10.26	6-6
2021-12-12	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-22	1501.17	1581.40	39.30%	60.19%	+9.03	7-6
2021-12-20	Las Vegas Raiders	L 14-16	1510.20	1429.56	62.01%	37.48%	-9.30	7-7
2021-12-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 22-24	1500.90	1650.05	28.78%	70.71%	-4.33	7-8
2022-01-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-26	1496.57	1479.49	51.27%	48.22%	-18.85	7-9
2022-01-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-16	1477.72	1541.45	41.59%	57.90%	+13.73	8-9
2021-09-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 29-31	1458.15	1644.08	24.64%	74.85%	-3.70	0-1
2021-09-19	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-17	1454.45	1480.34	45.10%	54.39%	+9.99	1-1
2021-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 41-21	1464.44	1449.59	52.81%	46.68%	+22.17	2-1
2021-10-03	Carolina Panthers	W 36-28	1486.61	1513.91	46.75%	52.74%	+15.82	3-1
2021-10-10	New York Giants	W 44-20	1502.43	1428.93	61.04%	38.45%	+20.02	4-1
2021-10-17	@ New England Patriots	W 35-29	1522.45	1490.31	53.43%	46.06%	+11.98	5-1
2021-10-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-16	1534.43	1495.96	54.33%	45.16%	+9.59	6-1
2021-11-07	Denver Broncos	L 16-30	1544.02	1452.09	63.52%	35.97%	-25.21	6-2
2021-11-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 43-3	1518.81	1457.37	59.39%	40.10%	+26.95	7-2
2021-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-19	1545.76	1606.03	40.27%	59.23%	-13.53	7-3
2021-11-25	Las Vegas Raiders	L 33-36	1532.23	1441.69	63.34%	36.15%	-11.63	7-4
2021-12-02	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-17	1520.60	1561.81	42.93%	56.56%	+18.97	8-4
2021-12-12	@ Washington Football Team	W 27-20	1539.57	1474.19	58.13%	41.36%	+11.63	9-4
2021-12-19	@ New York Giants	W 21-6	1551.20	1409.08	68.30%	31.20%	+12.84	10-4
2021-12-26	Washington Football Team	W 56-14	1564.04	1446.80	66.80%	32.69%	+22.53	11-4
2022-01-02	Arizona Cardinals	L 22-25	1586.57	1535.84	57.90%	41.59%	-10.64	11-5
2022-01-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 51-26	1575.93	1517.99	57.09%	42.40%	+22.52	12-5
2021-09-12	@ New York Giants	W 27-13	1442.52	1442.25	48.85%	50.64%	+20.11	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-13	1462.63	1360.34	63.18%	36.32%	+12.20	2-0
2021-09-26	New York Jets	W 26-0	1474.83	1359.09	66.61%	32.88%	+17.83	3-0
2021-10-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-23	1492.66	1581.20	38.16%	61.33%	-16.23	3-1
2021-10-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-27	1476.43	1488.98	47.01%	52.48%	-14.11	3-2
2021-10-17	Las Vegas Raiders	L 24-34	1462.32	1471.31	49.38%	50.11%	-16.58	3-3
2021-10-21	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-17	1445.74	1520.15	38.32%	61.17%	-7.05	3-4
2021-10-31	Washington Football Team	W 17-10	1438.69	1431.14	51.76%	47.73%	+13.40	4-4
2021-11-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-16	1452.09	1544.02	35.97%	63.52%	+25.21	5-4
2021-11-14	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-30	1477.30	1426.86	57.86%	41.63%	-25.31	5-5
2021-11-28	Los Angeles Chargers	W 28-13	1451.99	1496.58	44.29%	55.20%	+22.69	6-5
2021-12-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-22	1474.68	1619.55	29.29%	70.20%	-11.23	6-6
2021-12-12	Detroit Lions	W 38-10	1463.45	1308.82	71.35%	28.14%	+15.83	7-6
2021-12-19	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-15	1479.28	1489.56	49.20%	50.29%	-11.67	7-7
2021-12-26	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 13-17	1467.61	1438.86	52.94%	46.55%	-11.24	7-8
2022-01-02	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-34	1456.37	1482.64	45.05%	54.44%	-21.92	7-9
2022-01-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-28	1434.45	1658.06	22.10%	77.40%	-4.70	7-10
2021-09-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 33-41	1399.06	1484.76	38.55%	60.94%	-11.59	0-1
2021-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-35	1387.47	1570.07	25.00%	74.49%	-11.28	0-2
2021-09-26	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-19	1376.19	1577.53	24.38%	75.11%	-3.67	0-3
2021-10-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-24	1372.52	1459.80	36.59%	62.90%	-12.30	0-4
2021-10-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-19	1360.22	1477.72	32.65%	66.84%	-4.91	0-5
2021-10-17	Cincinnati Bengals	L 11-34	1355.31	1454.84	36.68%	62.81%	-18.70	0-6
2021-10-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 19-28	1336.61	1606.56	16.78%	82.71%	-5.36	0-7
2021-10-31	Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-44	1331.25	1408.68	39.68%	59.81%	-25.99	0-8
2021-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	T 16-16	1305.26	1531.00	20.64%	78.85%	+1.54	0-8
2021-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-13	1306.80	1507.16	23.13%	76.36%	-4.26	0-9
2021-11-25	Chicago Bears	L 14-16	1302.54	1434.14	32.51%	66.98%	-4.89	0-10
2021-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 29-27	1297.65	1493.18	25.00%	74.49%	+11.17	1-10
2021-12-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-38	1308.82	1463.45	28.14%	71.35%	-15.84	1-11
2021-12-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-12	1292.98	1584.28	16.11%	83.38%	+37.52	2-11
2021-12-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 16-20	1330.50	1415.28	36.92%	62.57%	-7.85	2-12
2022-01-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 29-51	1322.65	1498.88	25.69%	73.80%	-12.82	2-13
2022-01-09	Green Bay Packers	W 37-30	1309.83	1669.84	11.45%	88.04%	+8.24	3-13
2021-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 3-38	1601.63	1598.05	50.26%	49.23%	-31.56	0-1
2021-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 35-17	1570.07	1387.47	74.49%	25.00%	+11.29	1-1
2021-09-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-28	1581.36	1508.23	59.21%	40.28%	+6.05	2-1
2021-10-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-17	1587.41	1501.34	62.74%	36.75%	+12.35	3-1
2021-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 25-22	1599.76	1460.65	67.92%	31.57%	+5.82	4-1
2021-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-14	1605.58	1490.84	64.82%	34.67%	+11.65	5-1
2021-10-24	Washington Football Team	W 24-10	1617.23	1441.38	73.76%	25.74%	+10.25	6-1
2021-10-28	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-21	1627.48	1608.81	51.50%	47.99%	+8.82	7-1
2021-11-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-13	1636.30	1570.77	58.16%	41.33%	-15.11	7-2
2021-11-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-0	1621.19	1527.91	63.70%	35.79%	+15.69	8-2
2021-11-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 31-34	1636.88	1495.08	68.26%	31.23%	-12.54	8-3
2021-11-28	Los Angeles Rams	W 36-28	1624.34	1567.21	58.79%	40.70%	+12.23	9-3
2021-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 45-30	1636.57	1428.37	77.15%	22.34%	+9.21	10-3
2021-12-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 31-30	1645.78	1572.38	59.25%	40.24%	+4.27	11-3
2021-12-25	Cleveland Browns	W 24-22	1650.05	1500.90	70.71%	28.78%	+4.33	12-3
2022-01-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 37-10	1654.38	1498.23	71.53%	27.96%	+15.46	13-3
2022-01-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 30-37	1669.84	1309.83	88.04%	11.45%	-8.24	13-4
2021-09-12	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-21	1439.50	1377.34	59.49%	40.00%	+17.00	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Cleveland Browns	L 21-31	1456.50	1511.04	41.06%	58.43%	-13.80	1-1
2021-09-23	Carolina Panthers	L 9-24	1442.70	1496.21	43.02%	56.47%	-17.70	1-2
2021-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-40	1425.00	1629.77	22.68%	76.81%	-15.27	1-3
2021-10-10	New England Patriots	L 22-25	1409.73	1482.90	40.27%	59.22%	-7.41	1-4
2021-10-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-31	1402.32	1511.99	33.65%	65.84%	-18.93	1-5
2021-10-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 5-31	1383.39	1596.98	21.81%	77.69%	-11.83	1-6
2021-10-31	Los Angeles Rams	L 22-38	1371.56	1611.92	20.48%	79.01%	-8.73	1-7
2021-11-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-17	1362.83	1434.42	38.71%	60.78%	-11.63	1-8
2021-11-21	@ Tennessee Titans	W 22-13	1351.20	1607.84	17.88%	81.62%	+25.97	2-8
2021-11-28	New York Jets	L 14-21	1377.17	1311.06	60.03%	39.46%	-16.85	2-9
2021-12-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 0-31	1360.32	1576.39	22.85%	76.64%	-13.54	2-10
2021-12-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 13-33	1346.78	1505.24	29.21%	70.28%	-13.89	2-11
2021-12-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-16	1332.89	1287.33	55.34%	44.15%	+17.54	3-11
2021-12-26	Los Angeles Chargers	W 41-29	1350.43	1508.43	29.27%	70.22%	+25.80	4-11
2022-01-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-23	1376.23	1528.70	28.39%	71.10%	-12.08	4-12
2022-01-09	Tennessee Titans	L 25-28	1364.15	1586.00	22.27%	77.22%	-4.11	4-13
2021-09-12	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-28	1547.88	1549.51	50.44%	49.05%	-18.55	0-1
2021-09-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1529.33	1575.45	44.07%	55.42%	-8.10	0-2
2021-09-26	@ Tennessee Titans	L 16-25	1521.23	1514.80	49.74%	49.75%	-15.84	0-3
2021-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1505.39	1495.57	50.23%	49.26%	+16.54	1-3
2021-10-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 25-31	1521.93	1597.42	38.18%	61.32%	-9.94	1-4
2021-10-17	Houston Texans	W 31-3	1511.99	1402.32	65.84%	33.65%	+18.93	2-4
2021-10-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-18	1530.92	1478.39	56.33%	43.16%	+15.88	3-4
2021-10-31	Tennessee Titans	L 31-34	1546.80	1570.63	47.25%	52.24%	-8.69	3-5
2021-11-04	New York Jets	W 45-30	1538.11	1336.97	76.44%	23.05%	+9.50	4-5
2021-11-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1547.61	1335.97	77.49%	22.00%	+5.74	5-5
2021-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 41-15	1553.35	1653.68	34.86%	64.63%	+34.95	6-5
2021-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-38	1588.30	1646.48	42.37%	57.13%	-11.91	6-6
2021-12-05	@ Houston Texans	W 31-0	1576.39	1360.32	76.64%	22.85%	+13.54	7-6
2021-12-18	New England Patriots	W 27-17	1589.93	1615.54	47.00%	52.49%	+17.62	8-6
2021-12-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 22-16	1607.55	1546.76	57.49%	42.00%	+10.93	9-6
2022-01-02	Las Vegas Raiders	L 20-23	1618.48	1450.09	72.93%	26.56%	-13.40	9-7
2022-01-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 11-26	1605.08	1250.39	87.72%	11.77%	-36.04	9-8
2021-09-12	@ Houston Texans	L 21-37	1377.34	1439.50	40.00%	59.49%	-17.00	0-1
2021-09-19	Denver Broncos	L 13-23	1360.34	1462.63	36.32%	63.18%	-12.20	0-2
2021-09-26	Arizona Cardinals	L 19-31	1348.14	1526.26	26.93%	72.56%	-9.93	0-3
2021-09-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-24	1338.21	1454.62	32.79%	66.70%	-6.04	0-4
2021-10-10	Tennessee Titans	L 19-37	1332.17	1517.08	26.17%	73.32%	-11.81	0-5
2021-10-17	Miami Dolphins	W 23-20	1320.36	1463.90	30.23%	69.26%	+12.72	1-5
2021-10-31	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-31	1333.08	1514.83	25.09%	74.40%	-13.08	1-6
2021-11-07	Buffalo Bills	W 9-6	1320.00	1661.69	12.57%	86.92%	+15.97	2-6
2021-11-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-23	1335.97	1547.61	22.00%	77.49%	-5.73	2-7
2021-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-30	1330.24	1499.50	27.94%	71.55%	-13.30	2-8
2021-11-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-21	1316.94	1413.09	37.14%	62.35%	-10.44	2-9
2021-12-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-37	1306.50	1554.98	18.57%	80.92%	-10.83	2-10
2021-12-12	@ Tennessee Titans	L 0-20	1295.67	1556.77	17.50%	81.99%	-8.34	2-11
2021-12-19	Houston Texans	L 16-30	1287.33	1332.89	44.15%	55.34%	-17.54	2-12
2021-12-26	@ New York Jets	L 21-26	1269.79	1297.96	44.78%	54.71%	-10.63	2-13
2022-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 10-50	1259.16	1580.99	13.01%	86.48%	-8.77	2-14
2022-01-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-11	1250.39	1605.08	11.77%	87.72%	+36.04	3-14
2021-09-12	Cleveland Browns	W 33-29	1604.65	1518.86	62.70%	36.79%	+7.82	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 35-36	1612.47	1571.73	54.66%	44.83%	-5.80	1-1
2021-09-26	Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-30	1606.67	1470.34	69.17%	30.32%	-17.97	1-2
2021-10-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-30	1588.70	1427.42	70.61%	28.88%	+10.64	2-2
2021-10-10	Buffalo Bills	L 20-38	1599.34	1645.04	44.13%	55.36%	-19.88	2-3
2021-10-17	@ Washington Football Team	W 31-13	1579.46	1456.54	65.87%	33.62%	+15.16	3-3
2021-10-24	@ Tennessee Titans	L 3-27	1594.62	1541.29	56.44%	43.05%	-29.33	3-4
2021-11-01	New York Giants	W 20-17	1565.29	1424.20	69.75%	29.74%	+5.48	4-4
2021-11-07	Green Bay Packers	W 13-7	1570.77	1636.30	41.33%	58.16%	+15.11	5-4
2021-11-14	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 41-14	1585.88	1484.83	63.01%	36.48%	+20.15	6-4
2021-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-9	1606.03	1545.76	59.23%	40.27%	+13.52	7-4
2021-12-05	Denver Broncos	W 22-9	1619.55	1474.68	70.20%	29.29%	+11.23	8-4
2021-12-12	Las Vegas Raiders	W 48-9	1630.78	1446.01	74.73%	24.77%	+16.46	9-4
2021-12-16	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 34-28	1647.24	1516.94	66.82%	32.67%	+8.51	10-4
2021-12-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 36-10	1655.75	1494.33	72.14%	27.35%	+14.84	11-4
2022-01-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-34	1670.59	1528.91	68.24%	31.25%	-12.53	11-5
2022-01-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-24	1658.06	1434.45	77.40%	22.10%	+4.70	12-5
2021-09-13	Baltimore Ravens	W 33-27	1465.56	1588.86	33.57%	65.92%	+17.13	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-17	1482.69	1545.82	39.87%	59.62%	+18.97	2-0
2021-09-26	Miami Dolphins	W 31-28	1501.66	1504.62	50.25%	49.24%	+9.05	3-0
2021-10-04	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 14-28	1510.71	1488.31	52.03%	47.46%	-20.66	3-1
2021-10-10	Chicago Bears	L 9-20	1490.05	1472.10	53.25%	46.24%	-18.74	3-2
2021-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-24	1471.31	1462.32	50.11%	49.38%	+16.58	4-2
2021-10-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-22	1487.89	1422.63	59.91%	39.58%	+13.94	5-2
2021-11-07	@ New York Giants	L 16-23	1501.83	1418.72	60.59%	38.90%	-17.00	5-3
2021-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-41	1484.83	1585.88	36.48%	63.01%	-20.14	5-4
2021-11-21	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-32	1464.69	1471.53	49.69%	49.80%	-23.00	5-5
2021-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 36-33	1441.69	1532.23	36.15%	63.34%	+11.64	6-5
2021-12-05	Washington Football Team	L 15-17	1453.33	1466.88	48.73%	50.76%	-7.32	6-6
2021-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-48	1446.01	1630.78	24.77%	74.73%	-16.45	6-7
2021-12-20	@ Cleveland Browns	W 16-14	1429.56	1510.20	37.48%	62.01%	+9.30	7-7
2021-12-26	Denver Broncos	W 17-13	1438.86	1467.61	46.55%	52.94%	+11.23	8-7
2022-01-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1450.09	1618.48	26.56%	72.93%	+13.40	9-7
2022-01-09	Los Angeles Chargers	W 35-32	1463.49	1504.56	44.79%	54.70%	+10.05	10-7
2021-09-12	@ Washington Football Team	W 20-16	1469.28	1479.08	47.41%	52.09%	+11.06	1-0
2021-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1480.34	1454.45	54.39%	45.10%	-10.00	1-1
2021-09-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-24	1470.34	1606.67	30.32%	69.17%	+17.97	2-1
2021-10-04	Las Vegas Raiders	W 28-14	1488.31	1510.71	47.46%	52.03%	+20.66	3-1
2021-10-10	Cleveland Browns	W 47-42	1508.97	1557.01	43.80%	55.69%	+13.21	4-1
2021-10-17	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-34	1522.18	1607.36	36.87%	62.62%	-20.73	4-2
2021-10-31	New England Patriots	L 24-27	1501.45	1499.17	51.01%	48.48%	-9.38	4-3
2021-11-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1492.07	1434.68	57.02%	42.48%	+7.82	5-3
2021-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-27	1499.89	1480.05	53.52%	45.97%	-15.03	5-4
2021-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-37	1484.86	1529.46	44.29%	55.21%	+11.72	6-4
2021-11-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-28	1496.58	1451.99	55.20%	44.29%	-22.69	6-5
2021-12-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-22	1473.89	1525.34	41.49%	58.00%	+26.82	7-5
2021-12-12	New York Giants	W 37-21	1500.71	1425.31	61.30%	38.19%	+16.23	8-5
2021-12-16	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-34	1516.94	1647.24	32.67%	66.82%	-8.51	8-6
2021-12-26	@ Houston Texans	L 29-41	1508.43	1350.43	70.22%	29.27%	-25.79	8-7
2022-01-02	Denver Broncos	W 34-13	1482.64	1456.37	54.44%	45.05%	+21.92	9-7
2022-01-09	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 32-35	1504.56	1463.49	54.70%	44.79%	-10.06	9-8
2021-09-12	Chicago Bears	W 34-14	1556.70	1490.63	60.03%	39.47%	+18.75	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1575.45	1529.33	55.42%	44.07%	+8.11	2-0
2021-09-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-24	1583.56	1660.06	39.81%	59.68%	+20.02	3-0
2021-10-03	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-37	1603.58	1536.19	60.21%	39.28%	-26.33	3-1
2021-10-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 26-17	1577.25	1546.48	53.23%	46.26%	+14.73	4-1
2021-10-17	@ New York Giants	W 38-11	1591.98	1408.92	73.12%	26.37%	+14.58	5-1
2021-10-24	Detroit Lions	W 28-19	1606.56	1336.61	82.71%	16.78%	+5.36	6-1
2021-10-31	@ Houston Texans	W 38-22	1611.92	1371.56	79.01%	20.48%	+8.72	7-1
2021-11-07	Tennessee Titans	L 16-28	1620.64	1579.32	56.58%	42.91%	-20.79	7-2
2021-11-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-31	1599.85	1466.86	67.16%	32.33%	-32.64	7-3
2021-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-36	1567.21	1624.34	40.70%	58.79%	-12.23	7-4
2021-12-05	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-7	1554.98	1306.50	80.92%	18.57%	+10.84	8-4
2021-12-13	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 30-23	1565.82	1599.88	43.94%	55.55%	+15.59	9-4
2021-12-21	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-10	1581.41	1519.14	59.50%	39.99%	+13.44	10-4
2021-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-23	1594.85	1509.07	60.95%	38.54%	+10.83	11-4
2022-01-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 20-19	1605.68	1540.42	58.12%	41.37%	+4.40	12-4
2022-01-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-27	1610.08	1540.78	60.47%	39.02%	-11.11	12-5
2021-09-12	@ New England Patriots	W 17-16	1526.51	1491.37	53.86%	45.63%	+4.85	1-0
2021-09-19	Buffalo Bills	L 0-35	1531.36	1588.28	42.54%	56.95%	-26.74	1-1
2021-09-26	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 28-31	1504.62	1501.66	49.24%	50.25%	-9.05	1-2
2021-10-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-27	1495.57	1505.39	49.26%	50.23%	-16.53	1-3
2021-10-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-45	1479.04	1644.54	26.89%	72.60%	-15.14	1-4
2021-10-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-23	1463.90	1320.36	69.26%	30.23%	-12.73	1-5
2021-10-24	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1451.17	1452.39	50.50%	48.99%	-7.58	1-6
2021-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	L 11-26	1443.59	1652.51	22.27%	77.22%	-9.17	1-7
2021-11-07	Houston Texans	W 17-9	1434.42	1362.83	60.78%	38.71%	+11.63	2-7
2021-11-11	Baltimore Ravens	W 22-10	1446.05	1597.35	30.07%	69.42%	+25.50	3-7
2021-11-21	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1471.55	1319.50	69.51%	29.98%	+8.44	4-7
2021-11-28	Carolina Panthers	W 33-10	1479.99	1461.71	53.30%	46.19%	+23.52	5-7
2021-12-05	New York Giants	W 20-9	1503.51	1439.31	59.77%	39.72%	+14.00	6-7
2021-12-19	New York Jets	W 31-24	1517.51	1304.11	77.67%	21.82%	+6.14	7-7
2021-12-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-3	1523.65	1574.93	41.52%	57.98%	+25.36	8-7
2022-01-02	@ Tennessee Titans	L 3-34	1549.01	1557.90	47.53%	51.96%	-28.10	8-8
2022-01-09	New England Patriots	W 33-24	1520.91	1589.75	40.87%	58.62%	+18.65	9-8
2021-09-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1480.97	1426.78	56.56%	42.93%	-10.39	0-1
2021-09-19	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 33-34	1470.58	1521.85	41.52%	57.97%	-4.41	0-2
2021-09-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-17	1466.17	1557.08	37.84%	61.65%	+23.57	1-2
2021-10-03	Cleveland Browns	L 7-14	1489.74	1544.98	42.78%	56.71%	-12.02	1-3
2021-10-10	Detroit Lions	W 19-17	1477.72	1360.22	66.84%	32.65%	+4.91	2-3
2021-10-17	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-28	1482.63	1486.67	48.23%	51.26%	+13.33	3-3
2021-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-20	1495.96	1534.43	45.16%	54.33%	-9.59	3-4
2021-11-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 31-34	1486.37	1591.03	34.30%	65.19%	-6.32	3-5
2021-11-14	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-20	1480.05	1499.89	45.97%	53.52%	+15.03	4-5
2021-11-21	Green Bay Packers	W 34-31	1495.08	1636.88	31.23%	68.26%	+12.53	5-5
2021-11-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 26-34	1507.61	1512.79	48.07%	51.42%	-14.43	5-6
2021-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-29	1493.18	1297.65	74.49%	25.00%	-11.17	5-7
2021-12-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 36-28	1482.01	1493.61	49.01%	50.48%	+15.15	6-7
2021-12-20	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-9	1497.16	1419.17	59.88%	39.61%	+11.91	7-7
2021-12-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-30	1509.07	1594.85	38.54%	60.95%	-10.84	7-8
2022-01-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-37	1498.23	1654.38	27.96%	71.53%	-15.46	7-9
2022-01-09	Chicago Bears	W 31-17	1482.77	1437.71	57.10%	42.39%	+16.85	8-9
2021-09-12	Miami Dolphins	L 16-17	1491.37	1526.51	45.63%	53.86%	-4.84	0-1
2021-09-19	@ New York Jets	W 25-6	1486.53	1375.38	64.35%	35.14%	+16.28	1-1
2021-09-26	New Orleans Saints	L 13-28	1502.81	1596.70	37.44%	62.05%	-15.41	1-2
2021-10-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-19	1487.40	1640.04	29.91%	69.58%	-4.50	1-3
2021-10-10	@ Houston Texans	W 25-22	1482.90	1409.73	59.22%	40.27%	+7.41	2-3
2021-10-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 29-35	1490.31	1522.45	46.06%	53.43%	-11.98	2-4
2021-10-24	New York Jets	W 54-13	1478.33	1344.29	68.90%	30.59%	+20.84	3-4
2021-10-31	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-24	1499.17	1501.45	48.48%	51.01%	+9.37	4-4
2021-11-07	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-6	1508.54	1457.27	56.15%	43.34%	+19.53	5-4
2021-11-14	Cleveland Browns	W 45-7	1528.07	1540.25	48.93%	50.56%	+33.08	6-4
2021-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 25-0	1561.15	1430.43	66.87%	32.62%	+17.34	7-4
2021-11-28	Tennessee Titans	W 36-13	1578.49	1581.87	50.19%	49.30%	+25.10	8-4
2021-12-06	@ Buffalo Bills	W 14-10	1603.59	1643.16	43.16%	56.33%	+11.95	9-4
2021-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-27	1615.54	1589.93	52.49%	47.00%	-17.61	9-5
2021-12-26	Buffalo Bills	L 21-33	1597.93	1630.09	46.06%	53.43%	-16.94	9-6
2022-01-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 50-10	1580.99	1259.16	86.48%	13.01%	+8.76	10-6
2022-01-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-33	1589.75	1520.91	58.62%	40.87%	-18.65	10-7
2021-09-12	Green Bay Packers	W 38-3	1598.05	1601.63	49.23%	50.26%	+31.56	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-26	1629.61	1463.30	71.20%	28.29%	-32.91	1-1
2021-09-26	@ New England Patriots	W 28-13	1596.70	1502.81	62.05%	37.44%	+15.41	2-1
2021-10-03	New York Giants	L 21-27	1612.11	1409.03	76.64%	22.85%	-19.91	2-2
2021-10-10	@ Washington Football Team	W 33-22	1592.20	1468.36	65.99%	33.50%	+11.81	3-2
2021-10-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 13-10	1604.01	1522.01	60.43%	39.06%	+7.19	4-2
2021-10-31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 36-27	1611.20	1680.74	40.78%	58.71%	+18.68	5-2
2021-11-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 25-27	1629.88	1446.19	74.61%	24.88%	-11.19	5-3
2021-11-14	@ Tennessee Titans	L 21-23	1618.69	1600.11	51.49%	48.00%	-7.72	5-4
2021-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 29-40	1610.97	1452.17	70.32%	29.17%	-24.74	5-5
2021-11-25	Buffalo Bills	L 6-31	1586.23	1618.74	46.01%	53.48%	-24.42	5-6
2021-12-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1561.81	1520.60	56.56%	42.93%	-18.98	5-7
2021-12-12	@ New York Jets	W 30-9	1542.83	1314.67	77.84%	21.65%	+10.56	6-7
2021-12-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 9-0	1553.39	1677.83	31.78%	67.71%	+21.54	7-7
2021-12-27	Miami Dolphins	L 3-20	1574.93	1523.65	57.98%	41.52%	-25.35	7-8
2022-01-02	Carolina Panthers	W 18-10	1549.58	1400.83	70.66%	28.83%	+8.67	8-8
2022-01-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-20	1558.25	1414.84	68.46%	31.04%	+10.44	9-8
2021-09-12	Denver Broncos	L 13-27	1442.25	1442.52	50.64%	48.85%	-20.11	0-1
2021-09-16	@ Washington Football Team	L 29-30	1422.14	1468.02	42.27%	57.22%	-4.49	0-2
2021-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-17	1417.65	1443.82	46.92%	52.57%	-8.62	0-3
2021-10-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-21	1409.03	1612.11	22.85%	76.64%	+19.90	1-3
2021-10-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-44	1428.93	1502.43	38.45%	61.04%	-20.01	1-4
2021-10-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 11-38	1408.92	1591.98	26.37%	73.12%	-14.58	1-5
2021-10-24	Carolina Panthers	W 25-3	1394.34	1473.35	39.47%	60.02%	+29.86	2-5
2021-11-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1424.20	1565.29	29.74%	69.75%	-5.48	2-6
2021-11-07	Las Vegas Raiders	W 23-16	1418.72	1501.83	38.90%	60.59%	+17.00	3-6
2021-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-30	1435.72	1635.44	23.20%	76.29%	-11.04	3-7
2021-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-7	1424.68	1476.90	43.21%	56.29%	+14.63	4-7
2021-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-20	1439.31	1503.51	39.72%	59.77%	-14.00	4-8
2021-12-12	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 21-37	1425.31	1500.71	38.19%	61.30%	-16.23	4-9
2021-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 6-21	1409.08	1551.20	31.20%	68.30%	-12.85	4-10
2021-12-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-34	1396.23	1491.28	35.56%	63.93%	-18.52	4-11
2022-01-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-29	1377.71	1414.09	43.61%	55.88%	-23.62	4-12
2022-01-09	Washington Football Team	L 7-22	1354.09	1416.08	41.83%	57.66%	-17.20	4-13
2021-09-12	@ Carolina Panthers	L 14-19	1384.65	1454.03	39.01%	60.48%	-9.27	0-1
2021-09-19	New England Patriots	L 6-25	1375.38	1486.53	35.14%	64.35%	-16.29	0-2
2021-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-26	1359.09	1474.83	32.88%	66.61%	-17.82	0-3
2021-10-03	Tennessee Titans	W 27-24	1341.27	1530.64	25.67%	73.82%	+13.56	1-3
2021-10-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-27	1354.83	1441.85	37.49%	62.00%	-10.54	1-4
2021-10-24	@ New England Patriots	L 13-54	1344.29	1478.33	30.59%	68.90%	-20.84	1-5
2021-10-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-31	1323.45	1510.60	25.92%	73.57%	+13.52	2-5
2021-11-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 30-45	1336.97	1538.11	23.05%	76.44%	-9.51	2-6
2021-11-14	Buffalo Bills	L 17-45	1327.46	1645.72	14.12%	85.37%	-7.96	2-7
2021-11-21	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1319.50	1471.55	29.98%	69.51%	-8.44	2-8
2021-11-28	@ Houston Texans	W 21-14	1311.06	1377.17	39.46%	60.03%	+16.85	3-8
2021-12-05	Philadelphia Eagles	L 18-33	1327.91	1462.27	32.16%	67.33%	-13.24	3-9
2021-12-12	New Orleans Saints	L 9-30	1314.67	1542.83	21.65%	77.84%	-10.56	3-10
2021-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-31	1304.11	1517.51	21.82%	77.67%	-6.15	3-11
2021-12-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-21	1297.96	1269.79	54.71%	44.78%	+10.63	4-11
2022-01-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-28	1308.59	1667.20	11.54%	87.96%	-2.46	4-12
2022-01-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-27	1306.13	1655.32	11.33%	88.16%	-4.97	4-13
2021-09-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 32-6	1429.57	1487.97	40.52%	58.97%	+31.90	1-0
2021-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	L 11-17	1461.47	1496.35	45.67%	53.82%	-11.88	1-1
2021-09-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-41	1449.59	1464.44	46.68%	52.81%	-22.17	1-2
2021-10-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-42	1427.42	1588.70	28.88%	70.61%	-10.64	1-3
2021-10-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 21-18	1416.78	1498.08	37.39%	62.10%	+11.41	2-3
2021-10-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 22-28	1428.19	1659.68	21.32%	78.17%	-5.56	2-4
2021-10-24	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 22-33	1422.63	1487.89	39.58%	59.91%	-13.95	2-5
2021-10-31	@ Detroit Lions	W 44-6	1408.68	1331.25	59.81%	39.68%	+26.00	3-5
2021-11-07	Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-27	1434.68	1492.07	42.48%	57.02%	-7.82	3-6
2021-11-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-13	1426.86	1477.30	41.63%	57.86%	+25.31	4-6
2021-11-21	New Orleans Saints	W 40-29	1452.17	1610.97	29.17%	70.32%	+24.73	5-6
2021-11-28	@ New York Giants	L 7-13	1476.90	1424.68	56.29%	43.21%	-14.63	5-7
2021-12-05	@ New York Jets	W 33-18	1462.27	1327.91	67.33%	32.16%	+13.25	6-7
2021-12-21	Washington Football Team	W 27-17	1475.52	1462.57	52.54%	46.95%	+15.76	7-7
2021-12-26	New York Giants	W 34-10	1491.28	1396.23	63.93%	35.56%	+18.52	8-7
2022-01-02	@ Washington Football Team	W 20-16	1509.80	1424.28	60.91%	38.58%	+8.19	9-7
2022-01-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 26-51	1517.99	1575.93	42.40%	57.09%	-22.51	9-8
2021-09-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-16	1528.56	1605.54	37.97%	61.52%	+17.26	1-0
2021-09-19	Las Vegas Raiders	L 17-26	1545.82	1482.69	59.62%	39.87%	-18.97	1-1
2021-09-26	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1526.85	1429.10	64.29%	35.20%	-25.51	1-2
2021-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-27	1501.34	1587.41	36.75%	62.74%	-12.36	1-3
2021-10-10	Denver Broncos	W 27-19	1488.98	1476.43	52.48%	47.01%	+14.12	2-3
2021-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-20	1503.10	1531.74	46.56%	52.93%	+9.73	3-3
2021-10-31	@ Cleveland Browns	W 15-10	1512.83	1527.20	46.75%	52.74%	+12.51	4-3
2021-11-08	Chicago Bears	W 29-27	1525.34	1445.78	61.87%	37.62%	+5.66	5-3
2021-11-14	Detroit Lions	T 16-16	1531.00	1305.26	78.85%	20.64%	-1.54	5-3
2021-11-21	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 37-41	1529.46	1484.86	55.21%	44.29%	-11.72	5-4
2021-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-41	1517.74	1494.52	52.15%	47.34%	-30.81	5-5
2021-12-05	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-19	1486.93	1588.09	36.47%	63.03%	+6.68	6-5
2021-12-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 28-36	1493.61	1482.01	50.48%	49.01%	-15.15	6-6
2021-12-19	Tennessee Titans	W 19-13	1478.46	1565.11	38.42%	61.07%	+15.87	7-6
2021-12-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-36	1494.33	1655.75	27.35%	72.14%	-14.84	7-7
2022-01-03	Cleveland Browns	W 26-14	1479.49	1496.57	48.22%	51.27%	+18.85	8-7
2022-01-09	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 16-13	1498.34	1536.03	43.43%	56.06%	+10.30	9-7
2021-09-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-33	1484.76	1399.06	60.94%	38.55%	+11.59	1-0
2021-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-11	1496.35	1461.47	53.82%	45.67%	+11.88	2-0
2021-09-26	Green Bay Packers	L 28-30	1508.23	1581.36	40.28%	59.21%	-6.05	2-1
2021-10-03	Seattle Seahawks	L 21-28	1502.18	1533.50	46.18%	53.31%	-12.98	2-2
2021-10-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-17	1489.20	1562.52	38.47%	61.02%	-10.81	2-3
2021-10-24	Indianapolis Colts	L 18-30	1478.39	1530.92	43.16%	56.33%	-15.88	2-4
2021-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-22	1462.51	1463.68	48.64%	50.85%	+17.89	3-4
2021-11-07	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-31	1480.40	1599.99	34.05%	65.45%	-13.54	3-5
2021-11-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-10	1466.86	1599.85	32.33%	67.16%	+32.64	4-5
2021-11-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-10	1499.50	1330.24	71.55%	27.94%	+13.29	5-5
2021-11-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-26	1512.79	1507.61	51.42%	48.07%	+14.44	6-5
2021-12-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-30	1527.23	1490.04	54.15%	45.34%	-15.21	6-6
2021-12-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-23	1512.02	1498.52	50.76%	48.73%	+8.96	7-6
2021-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-13	1520.98	1431.65	63.18%	36.31%	+16.38	8-6
2021-12-23	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1537.36	1549.24	47.11%	52.38%	-8.66	8-7
2022-01-02	Houston Texans	W 23-7	1528.70	1376.23	71.10%	28.39%	+12.08	9-7
2022-01-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1540.78	1610.08	39.02%	60.47%	+11.11	10-7
2021-09-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 28-16	1549.51	1547.88	49.05%	50.44%	+18.55	1-0
2021-09-19	Tennessee Titans	L 30-33	1568.06	1503.82	59.77%	39.72%	-10.98	1-1
2021-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-30	1557.08	1466.17	61.65%	37.84%	-23.58	1-2
2021-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-21	1533.50	1502.18	53.31%	46.18%	+12.98	2-2
2021-10-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-26	1546.48	1577.25	46.26%	53.23%	-14.74	2-3
2021-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1531.74	1503.10	52.93%	46.56%	-9.73	2-4
2021-10-25	New Orleans Saints	L 10-13	1522.01	1604.01	39.06%	60.43%	-7.18	2-5
2021-10-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-7	1514.83	1333.08	74.40%	25.09%	+13.08	3-5
2021-11-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-17	1527.91	1621.19	35.79%	63.70%	-15.69	3-6
2021-11-21	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-23	1512.22	1575.22	41.69%	57.80%	-14.00	3-7
2021-11-29	@ Washington Football Team	L 15-17	1498.22	1458.70	54.48%	45.01%	-8.18	3-8
2021-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-23	1490.04	1527.23	45.34%	54.15%	+15.20	4-8
2021-12-12	@ Houston Texans	W 33-13	1505.24	1346.78	70.28%	29.21%	+13.90	5-8
2021-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-20	1519.14	1581.41	39.99%	59.50%	-13.44	5-9
2021-12-26	Chicago Bears	L 24-25	1505.70	1407.26	64.38%	35.11%	-6.82	5-10
2022-01-02	Detroit Lions	W 51-29	1498.88	1322.65	73.80%	25.69%	+12.82	6-10
2022-01-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 38-30	1511.70	1546.47	43.84%	55.65%	+16.70	7-10
2021-09-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-29	1644.08	1458.15	74.85%	24.64%	+3.71	1-0
2021-09-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 48-25	1647.79	1456.08	75.46%	24.03%	+12.27	2-0
2021-09-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-34	1660.06	1583.56	59.68%	39.81%	-20.02	2-1
2021-10-03	@ New England Patriots	W 19-17	1640.04	1487.40	69.58%	29.91%	+4.50	3-1
2021-10-10	Miami Dolphins	W 45-17	1644.54	1479.04	72.60%	26.89%	+15.14	4-1
2021-10-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-22	1659.68	1428.19	78.17%	21.32%	+5.56	5-1
2021-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 38-3	1665.24	1479.18	74.86%	24.63%	+15.50	6-1
2021-10-31	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-36	1680.74	1611.20	58.71%	40.78%	-18.68	6-2
2021-11-14	@ Washington Football Team	L 19-29	1662.06	1417.73	79.38%	20.11%	-26.62	6-3
2021-11-22	New York Giants	W 30-10	1635.44	1435.72	76.29%	23.20%	+11.04	7-3
2021-11-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-31	1646.48	1588.30	57.13%	42.37%	+11.90	8-3
2021-12-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-17	1658.38	1423.53	78.49%	21.00%	+8.06	9-3
2021-12-12	Buffalo Bills	W 33-27	1666.44	1631.21	55.72%	43.77%	+11.39	10-3
2021-12-19	New Orleans Saints	L 0-9	1677.83	1553.39	67.71%	31.78%	-21.54	10-4
2021-12-26	@ Carolina Panthers	W 32-6	1656.29	1411.74	79.40%	20.09%	+10.91	11-4
2022-01-02	@ New York Jets	W 28-24	1667.20	1308.59	87.96%	11.54%	+2.45	12-4
2022-01-09	Carolina Panthers	W 41-17	1669.65	1392.16	83.31%	16.18%	+8.45	13-4
2021-09-12	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-38	1533.88	1491.79	56.69%	42.80%	-30.06	0-1
2021-09-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 33-30	1503.82	1568.06	39.72%	59.77%	+10.98	1-1
2021-09-26	Indianapolis Colts	W 25-16	1514.80	1521.23	49.75%	49.74%	+15.84	2-1
2021-10-03	@ New York Jets	L 24-27	1530.64	1341.27	73.82%	25.67%	-13.56	2-2
2021-10-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-19	1517.08	1332.17	73.32%	26.17%	+11.81	3-2
2021-10-18	Buffalo Bills	W 34-31	1528.89	1664.92	31.95%	67.54%	+12.40	4-2
2021-10-24	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-3	1541.29	1594.62	43.05%	56.44%	+29.34	5-2
2021-10-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-31	1570.63	1546.80	52.24%	47.25%	+8.69	6-2
2021-11-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 28-16	1579.32	1620.64	42.91%	56.58%	+20.79	7-2
2021-11-14	New Orleans Saints	W 23-21	1600.11	1618.69	48.00%	51.49%	+7.73	8-2
2021-11-21	Houston Texans	L 13-22	1607.84	1351.20	81.62%	17.88%	-25.97	8-3
2021-11-28	@ New England Patriots	L 13-36	1581.87	1578.49	49.30%	50.19%	-25.10	8-4
2021-12-12	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-0	1556.77	1295.67	81.99%	17.50%	+8.34	9-4
2021-12-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-19	1565.11	1478.46	61.07%	38.42%	-15.87	9-5
2021-12-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1549.24	1537.36	52.38%	47.11%	+8.66	10-5
2022-01-02	Miami Dolphins	W 34-3	1557.90	1549.01	51.96%	47.53%	+28.10	11-5
2022-01-09	@ Houston Texans	W 28-25	1586.00	1364.15	77.22%	22.27%	+4.11	12-5
2021-09-12	Los Angeles Chargers	L 16-20	1479.08	1469.28	52.09%	47.41%	-11.06	0-1
2021-09-16	New York Giants	W 30-29	1468.02	1422.14	57.22%	42.27%	+4.49	1-1
2021-09-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-43	1472.51	1615.01	29.57%	69.92%	-14.75	1-2
2021-10-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-30	1457.76	1452.45	49.58%	49.91%	+10.60	2-2
2021-10-10	New Orleans Saints	L 22-33	1468.36	1592.20	33.50%	65.99%	-11.82	2-3
2021-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-31	1456.54	1579.46	33.62%	65.87%	-15.16	2-4
2021-10-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-24	1441.38	1617.23	25.74%	73.76%	-10.24	2-5
2021-10-31	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1431.14	1438.69	47.73%	51.76%	-13.41	2-6
2021-11-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 29-19	1417.73	1662.06	20.11%	79.38%	+26.62	3-6
2021-11-21	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-21	1444.35	1476.06	44.28%	55.22%	+14.35	4-6
2021-11-29	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-15	1458.70	1498.22	45.01%	54.48%	+8.18	5-6
2021-12-05	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 17-15	1466.88	1453.33	50.76%	48.73%	+7.31	6-6
2021-12-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1474.19	1539.57	41.36%	58.13%	-11.62	6-7
2021-12-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1462.57	1475.52	46.95%	52.54%	-15.77	6-8
2021-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-56	1446.80	1564.04	32.69%	66.80%	-22.52	6-9
2022-01-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-20	1424.28	1509.80	38.58%	60.91%	-8.20	6-10
2022-01-09	@ New York Giants	W 22-7	1416.08	1354.09	57.66%	41.83%	+17.21	7-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2022-01-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 11-34	1529.77	1598.97	39.28%	60.72%	-19.89	0-1
2022-01-15	New England Patriots	W 47-17	1660.30	1571.10	63.43%	36.57%	+21.15	1-0
2022-01-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 36-42	1681.45	1676.51	49.78%	50.22%	-12.88	1-1
2022-01-15	Las Vegas Raiders	W 26-19	1527.71	1473.54	58.64%	41.36%	+11.56	1-0
2022-01-22	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-16	1539.27	1590.11	41.83%	58.17%	+10.64	2-0
2022-01-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1549.91	1689.38	30.15%	69.85%	+12.78	3-0
2022-02-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-23	1562.69	1637.62	39.38%	60.62%	-7.21	3-1
2022-01-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-23	1598.45	1551.89	57.57%	42.43%	-14.89	0-1
2022-01-22	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-13	1661.60	1566.78	64.18%	35.82%	-11.74	0-1
2022-01-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-21	1662.76	1508.64	71.60%	28.40%	+13.75	1-0
2022-01-23	Buffalo Bills	W 42-36	1676.51	1681.45	50.22%	49.78%	+12.87	2-0
2022-01-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1689.38	1549.91	69.85%	30.15%	-12.77	2-1
2022-01-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-26	1473.54	1527.71	41.36%	58.64%	-11.55	0-1
2022-01-17	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-11	1598.97	1529.77	60.72%	39.28%	+19.89	1-0
2022-01-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-27	1618.86	1688.74	39.18%	60.82%	+11.12	2-0
2022-01-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1629.98	1578.52	58.26%	41.74%	+7.64	3-0
2022-02-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1637.62	1562.69	60.62%	39.38%	+7.20	4-0
2022-01-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-47	1571.10	1660.30	36.57%	63.43%	-21.15	0-1
2022-01-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 15-31	1495.48	1678.10	25.19%	74.81%	-10.64	0-1
2022-01-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-42	1508.64	1662.76	28.40%	71.60%	-13.75	0-1
2022-01-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 23-17	1551.89	1598.45	42.43%	57.57%	+14.89	1-0
2022-01-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 13-10	1566.78	1661.60	35.82%	64.18%	+11.74	2-0
2022-01-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1578.52	1629.98	41.74%	58.26%	-7.64	2-1
2022-01-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-15	1678.10	1495.48	74.81%	25.19%	+10.64	1-0
2022-01-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 27-30	1688.74	1618.86	60.82%	39.18%	-11.13	1-1
2022-01-22	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-19	1590.11	1539.27	58.17%	41.83%	-10.64	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2022-01-09	11.45%	@ Detroit Lions	1309.83	37	Green Bay Packers	1669.84	30
2	2022-01-09	11.77%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1250.39	26	Indianapolis Colts	1605.08	11
3	2021-11-07	12.57%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1320.00	9	Buffalo Bills	1661.69	6
4	2021-12-19	16.11%	@ Detroit Lions	1292.98	30	Arizona Cardinals	1584.28	12
5	2021-11-21	17.88%	Houston Texans	1351.20	22	@ Tennessee Titans	1607.84	13
6	2021-11-14	20.11%	@ Washington Football Team	1417.73	29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1662.06	19
7	2021-10-03	22.85%	New York Giants	1409.03	27	@ New Orleans Saints	1612.11	21
8	2021-11-07	24.88%	Atlanta Falcons	1446.19	27	@ New Orleans Saints	1629.88	25
9	2021-12-05	25.00%	@ Detroit Lions	1297.65	29	Minnesota Vikings	1493.18	27
10	2021-10-03	25.67%	@ New York Jets	1341.27	27	Tennessee Titans	1530.64	24
11	2021-11-14	25.74%	Carolina Panthers	1437.74	34	@ Arizona Cardinals	1613.53	10
12	2021-10-31	25.92%	@ New York Jets	1323.45	34	Cincinnati Bengals	1510.60	31
13	2022-01-02	26.56%	Las Vegas Raiders	1450.09	23	@ Indianapolis Colts	1618.48	20
14	2021-10-24	28.15%	Cincinnati Bengals	1473.54	41	@ Baltimore Ravens	1628.10	17
15	2021-09-19	28.29%	@ Carolina Panthers	1463.30	26	New Orleans Saints	1629.61	7
16	2021-11-21	29.17%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1452.17	40	New Orleans Saints	1610.97	29
17	2021-12-26	29.27%	@ Houston Texans	1350.43	41	Los Angeles Chargers	1508.43	29
18	2021-11-11	30.07%	@ Miami Dolphins	1446.05	22	Baltimore Ravens	1597.35	10
19	2022-01-30 *	30.15%	Cincinnati Bengals	1549.91	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1689.38	24
20	2021-10-17	30.23%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1320.36	23	Miami Dolphins	1463.90	20
21	2021-09-26	30.32%	Los Angeles Chargers	1470.34	30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1606.67	24
22	2021-11-21	31.23%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1495.08	34	Green Bay Packers	1636.88	31
23	2022-01-02	31.25%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1528.91	34	Kansas City Chiefs	1670.59	31
24	2021-12-19	31.78%	New Orleans Saints	1553.39	9	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1677.83	0
25	2021-10-18	31.95%	@ Tennessee Titans	1528.89	34	Buffalo Bills	1664.92	31

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2021-11-14	38.32	Carolina Panthers	34	1437.74	25.74%	@ Arizona Cardinals	10	1613.53	73.75%
2	2021-12-19	37.52	@ Detroit Lions	30	1292.98	16.11%	Arizona Cardinals	12	1584.28	83.38%
3	2021-10-24	37.07	Cincinnati Bengals	41	1473.54	28.15%	@ Baltimore Ravens	17	1628.10	71.34%
4	2022-01-09	36.04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	26	1250.39	11.77%	Indianapolis Colts	11	1605.08	87.72%
5	2021-11-21	34.95	Indianapolis Colts	41	1553.35	34.86%	@ Buffalo Bills	15	1653.68	64.63%
6	2021-11-14	33.09	@ New England Patriots	45	1528.07	48.93%	Cleveland Browns	7	1540.25	50.56%
7	2021-09-19	32.91	@ Carolina Panthers	26	1463.30	28.29%	New Orleans Saints	7	1629.61	71.20%
8	2021-11-15	32.64	@ San Francisco 49ers	31	1466.86	32.33%	Los Angeles Rams	10	1599.85	67.16%
9	2021-09-12	31.90	Philadelphia Eagles	32	1429.57	40.52%	@ Atlanta Falcons	6	1487.97	58.97%
10	2021-09-12	31.56	@ New Orleans Saints	38	1598.05	49.23%	Green Bay Packers	3	1601.63	50.26%
11	2021-11-28	30.82	@ Cincinnati Bengals	41	1494.52	47.34%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1517.74	52.15%
12	2021-09-12	30.06	Arizona Cardinals	38	1491.79	42.80%	@ Tennessee Titans	13	1533.88	56.69%
13	2021-10-24	29.86	@ New York Giants	25	1394.34	39.47%	Carolina Panthers	3	1473.35	60.02%
14	2021-10-24	29.34	@ Tennessee Titans	27	1541.29	43.05%	Kansas City Chiefs	3	1594.62	56.44%
15	2022-01-02	28.10	@ Tennessee Titans	34	1557.90	51.96%	Miami Dolphins	3	1549.01	47.53%
16	2021-12-26	27.68	@ Cincinnati Bengals	41	1501.24	41.15%	Baltimore Ravens	21	1568.10	58.34%
17	2021-11-14	26.95	@ Dallas Cowboys	43	1518.81	59.39%	Atlanta Falcons	3	1457.37	40.10%
18	2021-12-05	26.82	Los Angeles Chargers	41	1473.89	41.49%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	22	1525.34	58.00%
19	2021-09-19	26.74	Buffalo Bills	35	1588.28	56.95%	@ Miami Dolphins	0	1531.36	42.54%
20	2021-11-14	26.62	@ Washington Football Team	29	1417.73	20.11%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	1662.06	79.38%
21	2021-10-03	26.33	Arizona Cardinals	37	1536.19	39.28%	@ Los Angeles Rams	20	1603.58	60.21%
22	2021-10-31	26.00	Philadelphia Eagles	44	1408.68	59.81%	@ Detroit Lions	6	1331.25	39.68%
23	2021-11-21	25.97	Houston Texans	22	1351.20	17.88%	@ Tennessee Titans	13	1607.84	81.62%
24	2021-12-26	25.80	@ Houston Texans	41	1350.43	29.27%	Los Angeles Chargers	29	1508.43	70.22%
25	2021-11-07	25.56	Cleveland Browns	41	1514.69	51.35%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	16	1497.09	48.15%