2019 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1969

Runner-Up

San Francisco 49ers

7th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2012

Biggest Overachiever

Green Bay Packers

4.32 wins above expected

13 wins · 8.68 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Los Angeles Chargers

3.66 wins below expected

5 wins · 8.66 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	12	4	.750	—	420	225	+195	12.08	-0.08
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	314	259	+55	8.59	+1.41
3	New York Jets	7	9	.438	5	276	359	-83	5.67	+1.33
4	Miami Dolphins	5	11	.312	7	306	494	-188	4.85	+0.15

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	14	2	.875	—	531	282	+249	10.76	+3.24
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	8	.500	6	289	303	-14	9.01	-1.01
3	Cleveland Browns	6	10	.375	8	335	393	-58	7.28	-1.28
4	Cincinnati Bengals	2	14	.125	12	279	420	-141	4.85	-2.85

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	10	6	.625	—	378	385	-7	8.31	+1.69
2	Tennessee Titans Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	402	331	+71	8.33	+0.67
3	Indianapolis Colts	7	9	.438	3	361	373	-12	9.20	-2.20
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	6	10	.375	4	300	397	-97	6.66	-0.66

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	12	4	.750	—	451	308	+143	10.28	+1.72
2	Oakland Raiders	7	9	.438	5	313	419	-106	6.02	+0.98
3	Denver Broncos	7	9	.438	5	282	316	-34	6.38	+0.62
4	Los Angeles Chargers	5	11	.312	7	337	345	-8	8.66	-3.66

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	9	7	.562	—	385	354	+31	9.37	-0.37
2	Dallas Cowboys	8	8	.500	1	434	321	+113	9.47	-1.47
3	New York Giants	4	12	.250	5	341	451	-110	6.09	-2.09
4	Washington Redskins	3	13	.188	6	266	435	-169	4.91	-1.91

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	13	3	0	.812	—	376	313	+63	8.68	+4.32
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	10	6	0	.625	3	407	303	+104	9.82	+0.18
3	Chicago Bears	8	8	0	.500	5	280	298	-18	8.99	-0.99
4	Detroit Lions	3	12	1	.219	9.5	341	423	-82	6.77	-3.27

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	13	3	.812	—	458	341	+117	10.76	+2.24
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	6	381	399	-18	6.75	+0.25
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	9	.438	6	458	449	+9	7.04	-0.04
4	Carolina Panthers	5	11	.312	8	340	470	-130	7.18	-2.18

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	3	0	.812	—	479	310	+169	9.72	+3.28
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	11	5	0	.688	2	405	398	+7	9.50	+1.50
3	Los Angeles Rams	9	7	0	.562	4	394	364	+30	9.43	-0.43
4	Arizona Cardinals	5	10	1	.344	7.5	361	442	-81	4.58	+0.92

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 22

Buffalo Bills 19

Jan 4

Tennessee Titans 20

New England Patriots 13

Jan 4

Divisional Round

Tennessee Titans 28

Baltimore Ravens 12

Jan 11

Kansas City Chiefs 51

Houston Texans 31

Jan 12

Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs 35

Tennessee Titans 24

Jan 19

NFC

Wild Card Round

Minnesota Vikings 26

New Orleans Saints 20

Jan 5

Seattle Seahawks 17

Philadelphia Eagles 9

Jan 5

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 27

Minnesota Vikings 10

Jan 11

Green Bay Packers 28

Seattle Seahawks 23

Jan 12

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 37

Green Bay Packers 20

Jan 19

Super Bowl

Kansas City Chiefs 31

San Francisco 49ers 20

Feb 2

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1777	14	10.76	+3.24	99.18%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1710	12	10.28	+1.72	89.01%	2	7	9	10	12	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1698	13	10.76	+2.24	94.07%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1664	13	9.72	+3.28	98.53%	3	7	8	10	11	13	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1658	12	12.08	-0.08	59.23%	6	9	11	12	13	15	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1627	13	8.68	+4.32	99.64%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1617	10	9.82	+0.18	64.02%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1588	9	8.33	+0.67	73.00%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1565	9	9.43	-0.43	51.97%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1561	9	9.37	-0.37	53.41%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1561	8	9.47	-1.47	30.18%	1	6	8	9	11	12	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1549	10	8.59	+1.41	85.11%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1546	11	9.50	+1.50	85.94%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1540	7	6.75	+0.25	66.75%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1539	10	8.31	+1.69	87.70%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1519	8	8.99	-0.99	40.40%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1512	8	9.01	-1.01	40.15%	3	6	8	9	10	12	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1490	7	7.04	-0.04	60.78%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1484	7	6.38	+0.62	73.17%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1466	7	9.20	-2.20	18.63%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1451	5	8.66	-3.66	5.15%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1407	7	5.67	+1.33	85.60%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1402	6	7.28	-1.28	34.40%	2	4	6	7	8	10	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1394	5.5	4.58	+0.92	71.76%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1388	6	6.66	-0.66	48.36%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1371	7	6.02	+0.98	79.43%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1340	3.5	6.77	-3.27	3.85%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1332	5	7.18	-2.18	19.16%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1329	4	6.09	-2.09	20.55%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1327	5	4.85	+0.15	67.02%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1314	2	4.85	-2.85	8.96%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1273	3	4.91	-1.91	22.64%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	—
New England Patriots	3-1 (3.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (3.0 exp.)	—	—	—
New York Jets	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (1.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Chargers	Raiders
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—
Los Angeles Chargers	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	—	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	2-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	13	8.68	+4.32
2	San Francisco 49ers	13	9.72	+3.28
3	Baltimore Ravens	14	10.76	+3.24
4	New Orleans Saints	13	10.76	+2.24
5	Kansas City Chiefs	12	10.28	+1.72

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Chargers	5	8.66	-3.66
2	Detroit Lions	3.5	6.77	-3.27
3	Cincinnati Bengals	2	4.85	-2.85
4	Indianapolis Colts	7	9.20	-2.20
5	Carolina Panthers	5	7.18	-2.18

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Baltimore Ravens	12	Oct 6 – Dec 29	1 in 176
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	Sep 8 – Oct 31	1 in 82
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	Dec 8 – Dec 29	1 in 24
4	Seattle Seahawks	5	Oct 27 – Dec 2	1 in 20
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	Nov 24 – Dec 15	1 in 17

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	9	Nov 3 – Dec 29	1 in 129
2	Carolina Panthers	8	Nov 10 – Dec 29	1 in 98
3	Cincinnati Bengals	11	Sep 8 – Nov 24	1 in 68
4	New York Giants	9	Oct 6 – Dec 9	1 in 50
5	Chicago Bears	4	Oct 6 – Nov 3	1 in 37

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	89.06%	10.29%	0.64%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	10.26%	70.11%	16.00%	3.63%
New York Jets	0.40%	13.08%	50.73%	35.79%
Miami Dolphins	0.28%	6.52%	32.63%	60.57%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	70.45%	23.12%	5.81%	0.62%
Pittsburgh Steelers	22.87%	50.08%	22.81%	4.24%
Cleveland Browns	6.19%	23.07%	53.85%	16.89%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.49%	3.73%	17.53%	78.25%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	42.22%	28.49%	19.78%	9.51%
Houston Texans	25.09%	29.19%	27.56%	18.16%
Tennessee Titans	25.60%	28.61%	26.99%	18.80%
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.09%	13.71%	25.67%	53.53%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	68.03%	23.35%	6.90%	1.72%
Los Angeles Chargers	24.33%	47.37%	20.05%	8.25%
Denver Broncos	4.51%	16.63%	39.85%	39.01%
Oakland Raiders	3.13%	12.65%	33.20%	51.02%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	48.59%	39.31%	10.08%	2.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	45.93%	40.75%	11.08%	2.24%
New York Giants	4.38%	13.70%	49.31%	32.61%
Washington Redskins	1.10%	6.24%	29.53%	63.13%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	46.45%	28.73%	17.42%	7.40%
Chicago Bears	27.39%	31.09%	27.52%	14.00%
Green Bay Packers	21.61%	28.50%	32.36%	17.53%
Detroit Lions	4.55%	11.68%	22.70%	61.07%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	81.13%	13.70%	3.98%	1.19%
Carolina Panthers	7.09%	32.39%	32.10%	28.42%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.90%	28.23%	31.61%	33.26%
Atlanta Falcons	4.88%	25.68%	32.31%	37.13%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	38.58%	32.83%	26.32%	2.27%
Seattle Seahawks	31.48%	32.99%	32.17%	3.36%
Los Angeles Rams	29.70%	32.90%	34.13%	3.27%
Arizona Cardinals	0.24%	1.28%	7.38%	91.10%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	48.81%	21.75%	12.13%	6.98%	4.37%	2.40%	1.78%	0.83%	0.54%	0.19%	0.14%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—
Baltimore Ravens	17.90%	22.23%	16.93%	13.04%	9.73%	6.42%	4.77%	3.26%	2.08%	1.69%	0.96%	0.49%	0.25%	0.13%	0.08%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.95%	17.85%	16.28%	13.85%	10.08%	7.48%	5.84%	4.75%	3.55%	2.13%	1.59%	1.25%	0.68%	0.39%	0.26%	0.07%
Indianapolis Colts	4.57%	8.93%	11.04%	12.62%	10.55%	9.57%	9.41%	8.18%	6.91%	5.64%	4.48%	3.10%	2.47%	1.51%	0.69%	0.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.19%	6.84%	8.89%	10.17%	11.05%	11.42%	11.16%	9.72%	7.32%	6.09%	4.86%	3.30%	2.41%	1.41%	0.82%	0.35%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.54%	5.84%	7.91%	9.30%	10.44%	11.24%	10.33%	9.66%	8.10%	6.65%	5.79%	4.21%	3.39%	2.41%	1.46%	0.73%
Buffalo Bills	2.60%	4.18%	6.28%	7.85%	10.70%	11.76%	12.05%	11.91%	8.82%	6.95%	5.49%	4.37%	2.94%	1.91%	1.38%	0.81%
Houston Texans	2.23%	4.73%	6.62%	8.26%	9.00%	9.21%	9.03%	9.01%	9.81%	8.28%	6.82%	5.81%	4.80%	3.33%	2.05%	1.01%
Tennessee Titans	2.13%	4.47%	7.39%	8.00%	9.07%	9.53%	8.88%	8.91%	8.86%	8.30%	6.44%	5.84%	4.86%	3.66%	2.66%	1.00%
Cleveland Browns	0.59%	1.31%	2.41%	3.48%	4.97%	6.22%	7.09%	8.69%	10.46%	12.00%	11.11%	9.52%	8.40%	6.09%	4.32%	3.34%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.21%	0.72%	1.72%	2.50%	3.52%	4.37%	5.38%	6.36%	7.93%	9.14%	9.71%	10.73%	11.56%	10.72%	9.20%	6.23%
Denver Broncos	0.10%	0.55%	1.29%	1.77%	2.42%	4.10%	5.14%	5.81%	7.93%	9.10%	10.55%	11.35%	11.03%	10.53%	10.81%	7.52%
Oakland Raiders	0.12%	0.37%	0.70%	1.27%	2.03%	2.84%	3.66%	4.97%	6.76%	7.99%	9.51%	10.45%	12.50%	13.92%	12.70%	10.21%
New York Jets	0.03%	0.10%	0.20%	0.46%	1.00%	1.90%	2.87%	4.21%	5.26%	7.42%	10.69%	13.26%	12.83%	12.83%	13.41%	13.53%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%	0.06%	0.06%	0.20%	0.65%	0.82%	1.47%	2.01%	2.71%	4.36%	6.21%	8.64%	11.34%	15.00%	19.29%	27.17%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.07%	0.15%	0.25%	0.42%	0.72%	1.14%	1.72%	2.96%	4.07%	5.65%	7.64%	10.51%	16.15%	20.87%	27.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New Orleans Saints	25.65%	18.24%	15.67%	11.18%	8.16%	5.51%	4.38%	3.27%	2.68%	1.92%	1.35%	0.90%	0.53%	0.39%	0.11%	0.06%
Minnesota Vikings	12.31%	12.81%	11.68%	11.08%	9.47%	8.45%	7.43%	6.58%	5.45%	4.61%	3.76%	2.49%	2.16%	1.22%	0.43%	0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	12.27%	11.44%	10.25%	10.67%	10.17%	9.10%	7.94%	7.09%	6.44%	5.25%	3.86%	2.40%	1.37%	0.92%	0.58%	0.25%
Dallas Cowboys	9.18%	10.10%	10.94%	11.04%	10.17%	10.02%	8.80%	7.75%	6.23%	4.88%	3.93%	2.92%	1.92%	1.17%	0.71%	0.24%
Seattle Seahawks	10.13%	9.59%	9.21%	10.15%	10.18%	9.23%	7.98%	7.71%	7.17%	6.57%	4.68%	3.28%	1.93%	1.19%	0.76%	0.24%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.44%	9.39%	10.55%	10.62%	9.55%	9.63%	9.66%	8.28%	6.37%	5.24%	4.23%	3.47%	2.13%	1.32%	0.79%	0.33%
Los Angeles Rams	8.99%	9.58%	9.25%	9.42%	10.00%	9.18%	8.87%	8.07%	7.70%	6.25%	5.03%	3.43%	2.15%	1.13%	0.71%	0.24%
Chicago Bears	6.01%	7.80%	8.28%	8.14%	8.94%	8.98%	8.78%	8.13%	7.82%	7.79%	5.97%	4.93%	4.19%	2.54%	1.26%	0.44%
Green Bay Packers	4.36%	6.07%	6.71%	6.88%	7.99%	8.78%	8.75%	8.64%	8.71%	8.91%	7.65%	5.69%	4.76%	3.56%	1.75%	0.79%
Carolina Panthers	0.75%	1.31%	2.06%	2.83%	3.74%	5.38%	6.78%	8.59%	8.71%	8.83%	10.46%	11.19%	9.65%	8.66%	6.99%	4.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.74%	1.22%	1.72%	2.63%	3.55%	4.87%	6.22%	7.10%	8.44%	9.18%	9.82%	10.77%	10.34%	10.42%	8.25%	4.73%
Atlanta Falcons	0.46%	0.89%	1.43%	1.80%	2.80%	3.93%	5.27%	6.53%	8.07%	8.90%	10.28%	11.29%	11.14%	11.11%	10.14%	5.96%
Detroit Lions	0.51%	0.96%	1.32%	1.88%	2.99%	3.37%	4.40%	5.61%	7.08%	8.53%	9.27%	11.24%	14.20%	12.72%	10.05%	5.87%
New York Giants	0.15%	0.51%	0.77%	1.37%	1.49%	2.34%	3.13%	3.95%	5.10%	7.43%	10.19%	12.61%	13.07%	13.08%	12.10%	12.71%
Washington Redskins	0.04%	0.07%	0.10%	0.22%	0.61%	0.83%	0.98%	1.68%	2.51%	3.53%	5.75%	7.72%	10.91%	14.43%	22.31%	28.31%
Arizona Cardinals	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.09%	0.19%	0.40%	0.63%	1.02%	1.52%	2.18%	3.77%	5.67%	9.55%	16.14%	23.06%	35.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	33.77%	18.17%	11.29%	8.65%	5.75%	5.45%	3.20%	3.15%	2.14%	2.30%	1.32%	1.28%	0.81%	0.83%	0.51%	0.44%	0.18%	0.29%	0.13%	0.10%	0.07%	0.09%	0.02%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—
New Orleans Saints	11.36%	12.33%	9.94%	9.12%	8.44%	7.37%	6.29%	5.65%	4.24%	3.86%	3.14%	2.87%	2.55%	1.92%	1.79%	1.59%	1.36%	1.33%	1.18%	0.85%	0.55%	0.56%	0.49%	0.33%	0.19%	0.27%	0.19%	0.10%	0.07%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	11.38%	9.95%	10.78%	9.38%	8.42%	6.84%	6.21%	6.32%	4.80%	4.49%	3.43%	3.37%	2.49%	2.34%	1.85%	1.69%	1.36%	0.98%	0.97%	0.79%	0.53%	0.53%	0.34%	0.27%	0.12%	0.12%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.21%	7.82%	8.69%	7.94%	7.55%	7.53%	6.61%	5.94%	5.08%	4.95%	3.78%	4.01%	2.93%	2.80%	2.67%	2.59%	2.01%	1.85%	1.38%	1.23%	0.85%	0.84%	0.50%	0.68%	0.39%	0.38%	0.32%	0.13%	0.16%	0.16%	0.01%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	4.51%	6.48%	6.98%	6.71%	6.34%	5.99%	5.94%	5.23%	5.26%	4.95%	4.72%	3.94%	4.31%	3.61%	3.30%	2.89%	3.01%	2.38%	2.78%	1.76%	1.88%	1.52%	1.38%	1.07%	0.98%	0.70%	0.57%	0.36%	0.24%	0.13%	0.07%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	4.34%	6.15%	5.99%	6.55%	5.83%	5.24%	6.10%	5.24%	5.34%	5.25%	4.95%	4.24%	4.39%	3.83%	3.57%	3.46%	3.45%	2.79%	2.80%	1.88%	1.80%	1.86%	1.33%	0.88%	0.63%	0.58%	0.48%	0.41%	0.23%	0.24%	0.12%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	3.28%	4.87%	5.18%	5.44%	5.40%	5.77%	5.51%	5.73%	5.67%	5.39%	5.28%	5.00%	4.72%	4.21%	3.51%	3.75%	3.33%	2.88%	2.39%	2.22%	2.29%	1.82%	1.52%	1.11%	1.09%	0.74%	0.59%	0.50%	0.43%	0.18%	0.15%	0.05%
Seattle Seahawks	3.71%	5.35%	4.86%	5.10%	5.42%	5.01%	5.81%	5.11%	5.74%	4.83%	5.26%	4.13%	4.35%	3.85%	4.21%	3.14%	3.88%	3.42%	2.96%	2.68%	2.45%	1.94%	1.60%	1.39%	1.01%	0.85%	0.57%	0.56%	0.35%	0.26%	0.12%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.24%	4.20%	4.64%	5.07%	5.74%	5.55%	5.32%	5.30%	4.88%	5.69%	4.97%	4.78%	4.70%	4.57%	4.34%	3.91%	3.21%	3.12%	2.65%	2.59%	2.26%	1.93%	1.53%	1.59%	1.11%	0.97%	0.76%	0.49%	0.35%	0.26%	0.19%	0.09%
Los Angeles Rams	3.00%	4.87%	4.75%	5.34%	5.22%	4.94%	5.31%	4.92%	5.78%	4.75%	4.73%	4.74%	4.88%	4.21%	4.46%	3.39%	4.10%	3.50%	2.87%	2.70%	2.52%	2.26%	1.54%	1.40%	1.07%	0.91%	0.73%	0.40%	0.25%	0.29%	0.13%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	2.16%	3.25%	4.48%	4.22%	4.76%	5.67%	5.85%	5.73%	4.71%	5.43%	4.63%	5.16%	4.72%	4.60%	4.26%	4.04%	3.41%	3.75%	2.97%	3.00%	2.46%	2.19%	1.80%	1.49%	1.33%	1.26%	1.07%	0.62%	0.41%	0.24%	0.18%	0.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.33%	2.48%	3.47%	3.57%	4.19%	4.37%	4.94%	4.94%	5.16%	5.19%	5.31%	5.44%	4.50%	5.81%	4.49%	5.31%	3.83%	3.94%	3.09%	3.30%	2.58%	2.62%	1.84%	1.81%	1.26%	1.39%	0.88%	0.85%	0.45%	0.34%	0.19%	0.13%
Chicago Bears	1.91%	3.34%	3.89%	4.31%	4.09%	4.44%	4.72%	4.29%	5.04%	4.18%	4.96%	4.45%	5.07%	4.55%	4.41%	3.66%	4.34%	3.30%	3.98%	3.18%	3.27%	2.61%	2.52%	2.14%	2.18%	1.64%	1.08%	1.08%	0.64%	0.44%	0.17%	0.12%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.19%	1.77%	2.71%	3.26%	3.81%	3.99%	4.63%	4.30%	4.53%	4.98%	4.96%	5.20%	4.75%	5.03%	4.76%	5.20%	4.13%	3.70%	3.85%	3.59%	3.23%	3.20%	2.38%	2.20%	2.00%	1.81%	1.34%	1.25%	0.87%	0.62%	0.51%	0.25%
Buffalo Bills	1.24%	1.60%	2.20%	2.42%	3.00%	3.37%	3.48%	4.34%	4.42%	5.42%	5.01%	5.67%	5.04%	6.30%	4.63%	6.26%	4.12%	4.90%	3.81%	3.94%	3.13%	2.87%	2.29%	2.62%	1.67%	1.61%	1.27%	1.15%	0.86%	0.59%	0.48%	0.29%
Green Bay Packers	1.20%	2.50%	2.92%	3.24%	3.73%	4.07%	3.41%	3.61%	4.42%	4.02%	4.74%	4.59%	5.14%	4.11%	4.66%	4.07%	4.59%	4.43%	4.58%	3.75%	3.71%	3.38%	3.13%	2.72%	2.23%	1.82%	1.78%	1.18%	1.00%	0.66%	0.49%	0.12%
Houston Texans	1.04%	1.37%	2.23%	2.56%	2.86%	3.27%	3.56%	3.93%	4.08%	4.50%	4.51%	4.69%	4.11%	4.38%	4.64%	4.49%	4.93%	4.76%	4.35%	4.25%	3.87%	3.47%	3.20%	3.12%	2.73%	2.29%	1.76%	1.63%	1.42%	1.09%	0.51%	0.40%
Tennessee Titans	1.11%	1.36%	1.81%	2.70%	3.22%	3.73%	3.31%	4.19%	4.12%	4.21%	4.47%	4.66%	4.15%	4.60%	4.41%	5.02%	4.16%	4.24%	4.15%	4.58%	3.40%	3.63%	3.05%	2.91%	2.49%	2.52%	1.98%	1.99%	1.51%	1.36%	0.58%	0.38%
Cleveland Browns	0.28%	0.32%	0.58%	0.80%	1.03%	1.15%	1.66%	1.92%	2.25%	2.30%	2.76%	3.11%	3.13%	3.94%	3.93%	4.30%	4.74%	5.53%	4.88%	6.64%	5.13%	5.55%	4.80%	5.13%	4.49%	4.38%	3.69%	3.48%	2.65%	2.33%	1.76%	1.36%
Carolina Panthers	0.14%	0.41%	0.51%	0.87%	0.97%	1.14%	1.43%	1.70%	1.70%	2.33%	2.76%	2.91%	3.63%	3.67%	4.61%	3.86%	4.52%	4.38%	4.97%	4.26%	5.49%	5.01%	5.72%	4.97%	4.91%	4.61%	4.55%	3.89%	3.42%	2.97%	2.07%	1.62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.12%	0.39%	0.48%	0.72%	0.75%	1.10%	1.32%	1.62%	1.93%	1.91%	2.58%	2.64%	3.32%	3.35%	3.51%	3.72%	4.18%	4.28%	4.94%	4.56%	5.53%	4.88%	5.39%	4.83%	5.17%	4.94%	5.19%	4.63%	4.42%	3.33%	2.45%	1.82%
Atlanta Falcons	0.14%	0.24%	0.33%	0.44%	0.73%	0.80%	0.86%	1.23%	1.50%	1.37%	2.10%	2.20%	2.86%	2.65%	3.35%	3.41%	4.35%	3.92%	4.68%	4.53%	5.63%	4.54%	6.07%	5.54%	5.67%	5.31%	5.57%	5.11%	5.10%	4.05%	3.42%	2.30%
Detroit Lions	0.13%	0.30%	0.38%	0.46%	0.72%	0.60%	0.96%	1.15%	1.70%	1.48%	2.11%	1.86%	2.50%	2.56%	3.09%	2.73%	3.92%	3.85%	4.54%	4.12%	4.97%	4.80%	5.99%	5.94%	6.90%	5.63%	5.90%	5.60%	4.99%	4.70%	3.13%	2.29%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.05%	0.17%	0.25%	0.39%	0.79%	0.87%	1.06%	1.34%	1.63%	1.58%	1.63%	2.28%	2.42%	2.73%	3.31%	3.32%	3.44%	4.07%	3.92%	4.88%	4.87%	5.31%	5.38%	5.27%	5.58%	6.19%	5.44%	5.38%	4.68%	5.10%	3.76%	2.91%
Denver Broncos	0.08%	0.05%	0.22%	0.21%	0.44%	0.58%	0.93%	0.91%	1.09%	1.28%	1.66%	1.78%	2.22%	2.48%	3.14%	2.93%	3.50%	3.99%	4.28%	4.86%	4.46%	5.30%	5.62%	5.89%	5.55%	5.94%	5.53%	5.99%	5.32%	5.73%	4.59%	3.45%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.09%	0.14%	0.24%	0.25%	0.52%	0.69%	0.73%	0.69%	1.01%	1.09%	1.27%	1.65%	1.60%	2.05%	2.31%	2.92%	2.92%	3.60%	4.13%	4.81%	5.35%	6.03%	6.08%	6.43%	6.36%	6.62%	6.30%	6.27%	5.98%	6.47%	5.37%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.11%	0.16%	0.19%	0.26%	0.33%	0.52%	0.66%	0.93%	0.89%	1.23%	1.40%	1.64%	1.98%	2.01%	2.63%	2.89%	3.44%	3.50%	4.15%	4.15%	4.90%	5.26%	5.54%	6.11%	6.50%	6.56%	7.45%	6.87%	6.59%	5.91%	5.21%
New York Jets	—	0.02%	0.07%	0.01%	0.11%	0.11%	0.14%	0.32%	0.47%	0.46%	0.62%	0.97%	1.05%	1.57%	1.46%	2.23%	2.07%	2.94%	3.16%	3.97%	4.08%	5.32%	5.82%	7.09%	6.00%	7.06%	7.09%	7.19%	7.26%	6.99%	7.65%	6.70%
Washington Redskins	—	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.07%	0.06%	0.17%	0.20%	0.29%	0.39%	0.49%	0.60%	0.43%	0.86%	0.94%	1.29%	1.39%	2.06%	1.80%	2.98%	3.12%	3.73%	3.86%	5.65%	5.86%	7.30%	7.29%	10.17%	11.04%	13.12%	14.71%
Miami Dolphins	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.01%	0.08%	0.13%	0.21%	0.33%	0.33%	0.39%	0.47%	0.74%	0.90%	1.20%	0.82%	1.40%	1.68%	2.46%	2.57%	3.13%	3.33%	4.70%	5.13%	6.03%	6.90%	8.28%	9.44%	10.93%	13.35%	14.94%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.07%	0.10%	0.20%	0.26%	0.33%	0.29%	0.54%	0.43%	0.72%	0.99%	1.19%	1.51%	1.56%	2.07%	2.41%	3.03%	3.48%	4.23%	4.98%	5.92%	6.85%	8.28%	10.34%	11.44%	12.92%	15.67%
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%	0.10%	0.09%	0.12%	0.24%	0.19%	0.36%	0.32%	0.59%	0.53%	0.77%	0.82%	1.34%	1.18%	2.07%	2.44%	2.92%	3.19%	4.91%	5.40%	7.35%	8.37%	9.80%	11.88%	15.46%	19.46%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	48.81%	21.95%	12.13%	6.17%	5.00%	2.48%	3.46%
Baltimore Ravens	17.90%	22.51%	17.32%	12.72%	9.88%	6.05%	13.62%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.95%	18.54%	18.02%	17.52%	6.94%	6.06%	18.97%
Indianapolis Colts	4.57%	9.17%	12.63%	15.85%	6.99%	8.64%	42.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.19%	6.41%	6.93%	5.34%	15.80%	13.13%	48.20%
Buffalo Bills	2.60%	2.92%	2.85%	1.89%	17.21%	14.64%	57.89%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.54%	5.89%	7.23%	8.67%	11.58%	11.48%	52.61%
Houston Texans	2.23%	4.86%	7.84%	10.16%	6.90%	8.38%	59.63%
Tennessee Titans	2.13%	4.60%	8.20%	10.67%	6.72%	8.39%	59.29%
Cleveland Browns	0.59%	1.30%	2.09%	2.21%	5.33%	6.70%	81.78%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.21%	0.74%	2.12%	4.02%	2.16%	3.94%	86.81%
Oakland Raiders	0.12%	0.36%	0.93%	1.72%	1.55%	2.65%	92.67%
Denver Broncos	0.10%	0.54%	1.38%	2.49%	2.08%	3.78%	89.63%
New York Jets	0.03%	0.08%	0.13%	0.16%	1.02%	2.04%	96.54%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.08%	0.13%	0.26%	0.38%	0.66%	98.47%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%	0.05%	0.07%	0.15%	0.46%	0.98%	98.28%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New Orleans Saints	25.65%	19.29%	19.42%	16.77%	2.84%	2.93%	13.10%
Minnesota Vikings	12.31%	12.90%	11.71%	9.53%	9.88%	8.88%	34.79%
San Francisco 49ers	12.27%	11.03%	8.85%	6.43%	13.35%	10.81%	37.26%
Seattle Seahawks	10.13%	9.12%	7.15%	5.08%	14.58%	11.06%	42.88%
Dallas Cowboys	9.18%	10.58%	12.26%	16.57%	7.10%	8.01%	36.30%
Los Angeles Rams	8.99%	8.59%	7.33%	4.79%	13.86%	11.22%	45.22%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.44%	9.68%	12.26%	15.55%	6.48%	7.89%	39.70%
Chicago Bears	6.01%	7.85%	7.27%	6.26%	9.95%	9.82%	52.84%
Green Bay Packers	4.36%	5.99%	5.92%	5.34%	8.53%	9.19%	60.67%
Carolina Panthers	0.75%	1.25%	1.96%	3.13%	3.66%	5.35%	83.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.74%	1.17%	1.93%	3.06%	3.20%	4.63%	85.27%
Detroit Lions	0.51%	1.00%	1.28%	1.76%	2.54%	3.35%	89.56%
Atlanta Falcons	0.46%	0.91%	1.36%	2.15%	2.60%	3.95%	88.57%
New York Giants	0.15%	0.55%	1.08%	2.60%	1.00%	1.81%	92.81%
Washington Redskins	0.04%	0.07%	0.15%	0.84%	0.31%	0.71%	97.88%
Arizona Cardinals	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%	0.14%	0.12%	0.39%	99.25%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens	77.09%	77.09%	56.18%	37.66%	25.31%
New Orleans Saints	74.43%	74.43%	49.09%	31.10%	15.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	67.92%	67.92%	40.95%	22.45%	13.64%
New England Patriots	87.75%	87.75%	49.54%	22.93%	12.14%
San Francisco 49ers	47.84%	47.84%	28.61%	16.12%	7.23%
Minnesota Vikings	47.99%	47.99%	24.77%	12.32%	5.23%
Green Bay Packers	28.98%	26.64%	14.14%	7.10%	3.05%
Dallas Cowboys	43.94%	42.05%	18.32%	7.96%	2.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	42.18%	38.65%	16.41%	6.43%	2.28%
Los Angeles Rams	37.20%	34.87%	15.60%	6.40%	2.21%
Seattle Seahawks	37.87%	35.91%	15.32%	6.33%	2.19%
Tennessee Titans	33.98%	24.63%	9.89%	3.78%	1.68%
Buffalo Bills	36.59%	21.56%	8.16%	3.00%	1.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers	41.20%	27.04%	9.17%	3.04%	1.10%
Chicago Bears	33.30%	27.80%	10.78%	3.92%	1.09%
Houston Texans	33.28%	22.76%	8.12%	2.64%	1.07%
Indianapolis Colts	44.11%	31.10%	7.91%	2.02%	0.63%
Los Angeles Chargers	38.96%	20.88%	5.71%	1.58%	0.41%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12.82%	7.09%	2.58%	0.91%	0.30%
Atlanta Falcons	10.06%	5.84%	2.48%	0.93%	0.28%
Denver Broncos	9.73%	4.44%	1.29%	0.40%	0.22%
Carolina Panthers	14.10%	4.75%	0.78%	0.19%	0.07%
Jacksonville Jaguars	12.24%	4.47%	0.79%	0.13%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns	16.33%	6.43%	1.53%	0.27%	0.04%
Detroit Lions	8.93%	3.44%	0.68%	0.20%	0.02%
Arizona Cardinals	0.72%	0.18%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	6.85%	2.15%	0.40%	0.07%	0.01%
New York Giants	6.49%	2.08%	0.31%	0.05%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	2.01%	0.44%	0.08%	0.02%	0.01%
New York Jets	3.35%	0.99%	0.25%	0.03%	—
Miami Dolphins	1.66%	0.44%	0.06%	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	1.43%	0.35%	0.05%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		4.88%	0.24%	2.26%	1.16%	3.22%	3.95%	1.28%	2.94%	4.63%	0.27%	1.50%	0.50%	0.98%	5.74%	3.13%
Buffalo Bills	1.13%		0.11%	0.73%	0.36%	1.62%	2.98%	0.73%	1.65%	1.89%	0.03%	1.39%		0.36%	1.44%	1.62%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%			0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.29%	0.27%	0.01%		0.11%	0.42%	0.70%	0.37%	0.41%	0.78%	0.03%	0.23%	0.04%	0.08%	0.37%	0.43%
Denver Broncos	0.16%	0.34%	0.03%	0.17%		0.41%	0.54%	0.16%	0.36%	0.42%	0.05%	0.16%	0.05%	0.07%	0.55%	0.33%
Houston Texans	1.02%	1.71%	0.07%	0.95%	0.50%		2.79%	0.55%	1.11%	2.30%	0.03%	0.73%	0.15%	0.37%	2.06%	1.33%
Indianapolis Colts	0.77%	2.19%	0.12%	1.48%	0.45%	1.82%		0.91%	1.02%	2.93%	0.17%	0.64%	0.27%	0.49%	2.52%	1.58%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.13%	0.40%	0.01%	0.21%	0.18%	0.26%	0.52%		0.30%	0.50%	0.02%	0.16%	0.02%	0.10%	0.56%	0.15%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.02%	4.02%	0.21%	2.12%	1.09%	3.24%	4.39%	1.35%		5.67%	0.24%	1.26%	0.49%	0.97%	5.09%	3.27%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.48%	1.12%	0.08%	0.84%	0.33%	1.45%	2.39%	0.83%	1.14%		0.07%	0.73%	0.18%	0.22%	1.55%	1.04%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%	0.01%		0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%		0.04%		0.02%	0.05%	0.02%
New England Patriots	0.97%	2.33%	0.12%	1.19%	0.54%	1.57%	1.99%	0.82%	0.80%	2.20%	0.16%		0.31%	0.36%	2.30%	1.33%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	0.07%	0.02%	0.09%	0.15%	0.04%	0.07%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%		0.04%	0.10%	0.07%
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	0.17%		0.15%	0.02%	0.13%	0.33%	0.07%	0.09%	0.19%		0.11%	0.01%		0.18%	0.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.14%	1.32%		0.66%	0.47%	1.75%	3.08%	0.88%	1.66%	2.17%	0.10%	0.92%	0.16%	0.52%		1.61%
Tennessee Titans	1.03%	1.76%	0.17%	0.92%	0.67%	1.59%	2.82%	0.69%	1.53%	2.63%	0.09%	0.88%	0.28%	0.59%	2.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.02%	0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.03%	0.03%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.01%		0.09%	0.44%	0.58%	0.06%	0.25%	0.35%	0.52%	0.41%	0.12%	0.51%	0.36%	0.66%	0.06%	0.05%
Carolina Panthers	0.02%	0.06%		0.20%	0.28%	0.11%	0.14%	0.24%	0.23%	0.20%	0.17%	0.31%	0.26%	0.44%	0.05%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.12%	0.38%	0.89%		2.05%	0.33%	0.68%	1.36%	1.46%	1.00%	0.59%	1.95%	1.03%	1.37%	0.54%	0.19%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.68%	1.35%	2.34%		1.00%	1.85%	2.62%	2.31%	1.04%	0.44%	2.94%	1.95%	2.70%	0.92%	0.13%
Detroit Lions	0.01%	0.04%	0.23%	0.13%	0.28%		0.10%	0.15%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.28%	0.11%	0.22%	0.04%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%	0.40%	0.69%	1.09%	2.27%	0.42%		1.59%	1.62%	1.34%	0.42%	2.39%	1.34%	2.01%	0.58%	0.10%
Los Angeles Rams	0.02%	0.43%	1.11%	1.62%	2.43%	0.63%	1.14%		1.73%	1.58%	0.52%	2.40%	1.16%	1.62%	0.77%	0.13%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.62%	1.35%	2.83%	2.78%	0.70%	1.58%	2.45%		1.31%	0.66%	2.88%	1.87%	2.57%	0.89%	0.25%
New Orleans Saints	0.13%	0.94%	1.63%	3.14%	2.40%	1.12%	2.43%	3.77%	2.62%		0.58%	2.36%	3.26%	3.67%	1.29%	0.15%
New York Giants		0.02%	0.18%	0.15%	0.10%	0.07%	0.10%	0.19%	0.13%	0.06%		0.10%	0.10%	0.14%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.10%	0.60%	1.17%	2.27%	2.80%	1.06%	1.47%	2.27%	2.22%	0.99%	0.34%		1.80%	2.59%	0.74%	0.11%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.76%	1.44%	2.63%	3.02%	0.76%	1.48%	2.83%	2.21%	2.20%	0.56%	2.89%		2.42%	1.08%	0.23%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	0.56%	1.06%	1.86%	2.08%	0.57%	1.08%	1.39%	1.58%	1.74%	0.55%	2.08%	1.24%		0.64%	0.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.10%	0.13%	0.60%	0.57%	0.12%	0.36%	0.63%	0.38%	0.47%	0.09%	0.53%	0.39%	0.74%		0.06%
Washington Redskins			0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.06%	0.04%		0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		3.48%	0.04%	0.88%	1.00%	4.39%	7.11%	1.03%	11.92%	4.57%	0.07%	11.84%	0.18%	0.47%	4.62%	4.58%
Buffalo Bills	0.86%		0.01%	0.14%	0.08%	0.38%	0.86%	0.10%	1.12%	0.68%		2.86%		0.06%	0.60%	0.41%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%						0.01%			0.01%		0.02%
Cleveland Browns	0.11%	0.09%				0.10%	0.20%	0.03%	0.14%	0.16%		0.48%		0.02%	0.14%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	0.15%	0.06%		0.01%		0.12%	0.20%	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%		0.48%	0.01%		0.11%	0.07%
Houston Texans	1.05%	0.39%		0.21%	0.12%		0.57%	0.04%	1.25%	0.55%		2.70%	0.03%	0.10%	0.87%	0.24%
Indianapolis Colts	1.33%	0.45%	0.01%	0.32%	0.11%	0.31%		0.09%	1.41%	0.61%	0.01%	2.07%	0.03%	0.05%	0.85%	0.26%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.06%	0.03%		0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	0.08%		0.13%	0.08%		0.20%		0.01%	0.11%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.49%	2.60%	0.07%	1.17%	0.32%	3.28%	5.68%	0.63%		2.45%	0.08%	10.01%	0.09%	0.25%	3.67%	3.16%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.77%	0.31%	0.01%	0.18%	0.03%	0.51%	0.61%	0.13%	0.66%		0.01%	1.68%	0.03%		0.48%	0.30%
Miami Dolphins									0.01%	0.01%		0.03%			0.01%
New England Patriots	6.13%	5.02%	0.14%	1.61%	1.23%	4.46%	6.15%	1.29%	7.48%	4.47%	0.17%		0.33%	0.65%	5.40%	5.01%
New York Jets	0.04%					0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.07%			0.03%	0.02%
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	0.02%		0.03%			0.08%			0.01%	0.01%	0.12%			0.05%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.22%	0.54%		0.11%	0.12%	0.76%	0.96%	0.20%	1.33%	0.72%	0.02%	2.49%	0.01%	0.09%		0.60%
Tennessee Titans	1.63%	0.41%	0.02%	0.20%	0.12%	0.30%	0.64%	0.11%	1.46%	0.82%	0.01%	3.16%	0.03%	0.05%	0.93%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals				0.01%	0.02%				0.01%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.02%	0.24%	0.33%	0.02%	0.18%	0.25%	0.28%	0.28%		0.28%	0.30%	0.29%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers				0.05%	0.08%	0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.10%	0.08%	0.03%	0.13%	0.06%	0.07%	0.02%
Chicago Bears		0.24%	0.22%		1.32%	0.10%	0.57%	1.09%	1.22%	1.71%	0.20%	1.44%	1.08%	1.29%	0.28%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.03%	0.35%	0.39%	1.91%		0.25%	1.16%	2.08%	2.76%	3.10%	0.07%	1.46%	2.23%	2.02%	0.50%	0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.09%		0.04%	0.07%	0.05%	0.09%	0.01%	0.07%	0.07%	0.09%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers		0.25%	0.19%	0.81%	1.77%	0.13%		1.35%	1.56%	2.56%	0.10%	2.01%	1.46%	1.69%	0.24%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%	0.29%	0.38%	1.26%	1.74%	0.27%	1.00%		2.19%	2.50%	0.16%	2.05%	1.61%	1.67%	0.45%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.43%	0.70%	2.06%	3.41%	0.20%	1.46%	2.49%		4.21%	0.26%	3.24%	2.99%	2.68%	0.54%	0.09%
New Orleans Saints	0.06%	0.86%	0.79%	4.84%	6.99%	0.85%	3.81%	5.09%	6.92%		0.46%	6.25%	5.91%	5.23%	0.90%	0.13%
New York Giants			0.01%	0.03%	0.02%		0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%			0.03%	0.05%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.16%	0.35%	1.60%	1.67%	0.37%	1.18%	1.79%	2.24%	2.80%	0.09%		1.83%	1.90%	0.42%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.02%	0.44%	0.49%	2.41%	3.74%	0.27%	1.87%	3.17%	3.55%	5.14%	0.21%	3.19%		3.38%	0.71%	0.02%
Seattle Seahawks		0.31%	0.40%	1.48%	2.23%	0.27%	0.97%	1.41%	2.07%	2.46%	0.16%	1.65%	1.47%		0.41%	0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.02%	0.02%	0.26%	0.31%	0.02%	0.19%	0.33%	0.23%	0.32%	0.02%	0.45%	0.17%	0.23%		0.01%
Washington Redskins					0.01%		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%		0.02%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		2.26%		0.41%	0.35%	2.25%	2.26%	0.24%	9.19%	1.59%	0.01%	14.27%	0.09%	0.12%	2.01%	2.61%
Buffalo Bills	0.75%		0.01%	0.12%	0.01%	0.19%	0.23%	0.01%	0.68%	0.14%		0.49%			0.16%	0.21%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%				0.01%	0.05%	0.01%		0.04%			0.11%		0.01%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.11%	0.01%				0.03%			0.04%	0.02%		0.10%			0.05%	0.04%
Houston Texans	0.67%	0.14%		0.06%	0.02%		0.11%		0.58%	0.14%		0.64%		0.02%	0.18%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.49%	0.09%		0.06%	0.02%	0.09%		0.03%	0.42%	0.13%		0.55%	0.02%	0.01%	0.07%	0.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.06%	0.01%										0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	6.38%	1.22%	0.02%	0.28%	0.14%	1.19%	1.37%	0.09%		0.67%	0.02%	7.90%	0.04%	0.06%	1.62%	1.45%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.46%	0.06%		0.04%		0.15%	0.03%		0.23%		0.01%	0.41%	0.01%		0.13%	0.05%
New England Patriots	7.98%	0.94%	0.01%	0.24%	0.27%	1.22%	1.57%	0.25%	6.00%	1.20%			0.05%	0.10%	1.65%	1.45%
New York Jets						0.01%			0.01%						0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%								0.01%			0.03%			0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.56%	0.20%		0.01%	0.02%	0.20%	0.14%	0.04%	0.66%	0.07%	0.01%	0.94%		0.01%		0.18%
Tennessee Titans	1.02%	0.23%	0.01%	0.04%	0.05%	0.10%	0.17%		0.64%	0.17%	0.01%	1.11%	0.01%		0.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals						0.01%						0.01%
Atlanta Falcons				0.08%	0.10%	0.02%	0.08%	0.09%	0.11%	0.15%		0.08%	0.16%	0.05%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers					0.01%		0.04%	0.04%	0.04%	0.02%			0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.06%	0.04%		0.36%	0.02%	0.15%	0.55%	0.33%	0.96%		0.46%	0.57%	0.34%	0.06%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys		0.19%	0.01%	0.58%		0.03%	0.56%	0.74%	1.10%	1.93%		0.53%	1.40%	0.72%	0.17%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.01%		0.03%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.07%		0.02%	0.02%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.01%	0.08%	0.04%	0.30%	0.77%	0.02%		0.80%	0.58%	1.75%	0.04%	0.68%	1.02%	0.84%	0.17%
Los Angeles Rams		0.10%	0.02%	0.64%	0.67%	0.02%	0.50%		0.76%	1.68%	0.03%	0.70%	0.69%	0.49%	0.09%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.24%	0.11%	0.66%	1.37%	0.05%	0.63%	1.27%		3.37%	0.03%	1.29%	1.77%	1.25%	0.26%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints		0.33%	0.19%	2.49%	3.95%	0.12%	2.79%	3.48%	5.36%		0.07%	3.46%	5.04%	3.50%	0.31%	0.01%
New York Giants								0.02%	0.01%				0.01%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.11%	0.05%	0.36%	0.34%	0.03%	0.33%	0.70%	0.83%	1.86%			1.06%	0.58%	0.18%
San Francisco 49ers		0.29%	0.07%	1.23%	1.81%	0.10%	1.30%	1.05%	2.36%	4.46%	0.05%	2.00%		1.12%	0.28%
Seattle Seahawks		0.14%	0.04%	0.46%	0.81%	0.05%	0.55%	0.37%	0.86%	1.57%	0.04%	0.68%	0.61%		0.13%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.01%	0.06%	0.14%	0.01%	0.10%	0.08%	0.10%	0.17%		0.07%	0.09%	0.08%
Washington Redskins													0.01%		0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals																			0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.08%	0.02%									0.01%		0.06%	0.01%			0.08%										0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	0.01%	0.27%			0.05%	1.03%		2.24%		0.06%	1.92%						1.79%	3.15%		6.83%	0.02%			1.82%		3.89%	1.92%	0.30%		0.01%
Buffalo Bills		0.02%				0.07%		0.15%		0.01%	0.16%						0.07%	0.12%		0.33%				0.13%		0.16%	0.10%
Carolina Panthers			0.03%									0.01%			0.02%	0.01%
Chicago Bears			0.31%	0.05%			0.02%		0.01%			0.02%	0.04%		0.13%	0.03%			0.40%						0.05%				0.03%
Cleveland Browns								0.01%			0.01%													0.01%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.72%	0.11%			0.02%		0.01%			0.12%	0.16%	0.01%	0.72%	0.07%			0.71%				0.01%		0.12%				0.10%
Denver Broncos						0.02%		0.02%			0.02%						0.03%	0.01%		0.06%				0.02%		0.03%	0.01%
Detroit Lions																0.01%			0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.93%	0.06%			0.02%		0.04%			0.10%	0.13%		0.69%	0.09%			0.77%				0.01%		0.08%				0.13%
Houston Texans		0.03%			0.01%	0.07%		0.08%			0.08%						0.13%	0.14%		0.26%	0.01%			0.04%		0.13%	0.08%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts						0.02%		0.05%			0.04%						0.03%	0.10%		0.21%				0.06%		0.07%	0.03%	0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars																		0.01%		0.02%						0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.18%			0.04%	0.77%		1.02%		0.05%	0.98%						0.98%	1.76%		3.75%				0.96%		2.13%	0.91%	0.11%
Los Angeles Chargers		0.01%				0.04%		0.05%			0.04%						0.04%	0.02%		0.09%				0.05%		0.02%	0.05%
Los Angeles Rams			0.71%	0.15%			0.02%		0.01%			0.08%	0.09%		0.32%	0.06%			0.53%				0.01%		0.09%				0.14%
Minnesota Vikings			1.46%	0.20%					0.01%			0.28%	0.14%	0.01%	1.16%	0.14%			1.28%				0.01%		0.20%				0.34%
New England Patriots		0.12%			0.02%	0.65%		1.22%		0.05%	0.64%						0.84%	1.49%		3.34%	0.01%			0.86%		1.95%	0.81%	0.14%
New Orleans Saints			4.69%	0.63%			0.08%		0.04%			0.56%	0.39%	0.04%	3.26%	0.35%			3.95%						0.80%				0.74%
New York Giants															0.01%
Oakland Raiders																		0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.76%	0.08%			0.02%					0.07%	0.07%		0.35%	0.05%			0.62%			0.01%	0.01%		0.13%				0.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers						0.06%		0.11%			0.06%						0.14%	0.11%		0.28%				0.05%		0.17%	0.12%
San Francisco 49ers			2.00%	0.29%			0.04%		0.05%			0.25%	0.28%	0.03%	1.63%	0.24%			1.74%			0.02%	0.01%		0.31%				0.34%
Seattle Seahawks			0.57%	0.09%			0.01%		0.01%			0.08%	0.08%		0.43%	0.10%			0.54%						0.15%				0.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.09%												0.03%	0.01%			0.14%						0.01%				0.02%
Tennessee Titans		0.02%				0.10%		0.13%		0.01%	0.10%						0.14%	0.17%		0.40%				0.15%		0.32%	0.11%	0.03%
Washington Redskins																			0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Baltimore Ravens	100.00%	76.85%	48.23%	31.19%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	62.12%	28.01%	16.26%	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	61.10%	32.08%	13.26%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	62.79%	38.65%	23.01%	11.27%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	100.00%	45.71%	21.62%	8.07%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New England Patriots	61.09%	26.44%	11.29%	6.21%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	37.21%	16.92%	9.24%	3.70%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Philadelphia Eagles	54.27%	20.50%	7.88%	2.69%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tennessee Titans	38.91%	10.15%	4.61%	2.17%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Seattle Seahawks	45.73%	17.12%	6.17%	1.95%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	49.16%	12.36%	3.99%	1.76%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Texans	50.84%	12.08%	3.87%	1.47%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills		49.16%
Houston Texans	50.84%
New England Patriots				61.09%
Tennessee Titans			38.91%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Minnesota Vikings		37.21%
New Orleans Saints	62.79%
Philadelphia Eagles				54.27%
Seattle Seahawks			45.73%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		23.47%	24.62%			28.76%
Buffalo Bills	6.55%			5.81%
Houston Texans	6.45%			5.63%
Kansas City Chiefs		13.33%	14.14%		34.65%
New England Patriots				26.44%
Tennessee Titans	10.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers			24.14%	12.01%		9.56%
Minnesota Vikings					16.92%
New Orleans Saints	38.65%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.50%				12.00%
San Francisco 49ers		20.29%		21.76%		19.05%
Seattle Seahawks	7.14%				9.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		3.16%	3.27%	28.87%	12.93%
Buffalo Bills	0.91%			1.16%	1.11%	0.81%
Houston Texans	0.96%			1.16%	1.11%	0.64%
Kansas City Chiefs	18.78%	2.64%	2.50%			4.09%
New England Patriots	7.97%	1.64%	1.68%
Tennessee Titans		0.93%	0.76%	2.92%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers		4.57%		2.69%	12.00%	2.36%
Minnesota Vikings	5.18%			2.17%		1.89%
New Orleans Saints				4.93%	13.78%	4.30%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.99%	1.81%	2.39%		1.69%
San Francisco 49ers	15.53%		11.32%	2.83%		2.40%
Seattle Seahawks	1.39%	1.30%	1.93%		1.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens			6.85%			2.81%		6.46%	2.55%	10.21%	2.31%
Buffalo Bills			0.54%			0.17%		0.34%	0.15%	0.46%	0.10%
Green Bay Packers	3.16%	0.43%		0.57%	2.40%		0.90%					0.61%
Houston Texans			0.28%			0.13%		0.28%	0.12%	0.52%	0.14%
Kansas City Chiefs			3.86%			1.63%		3.08%	1.51%	5.05%	1.13%
Minnesota Vikings	1.47%	0.19%		0.20%	1.14%		0.46%					0.24%
New England Patriots			1.43%			0.65%		1.24%	0.62%	1.89%	0.38%
New Orleans Saints	4.69%	0.58%		0.61%	3.32%		1.41%					0.66%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.11%	0.17%		0.22%	0.65%		0.36%					0.18%
San Francisco 49ers	5.75%	0.73%		0.73%	3.80%		1.61%					0.64%
Seattle Seahawks	0.86%	0.13%		0.07%	0.44%		0.34%					0.11%
Tennessee Titans			0.59%			0.15%		0.34%	0.24%	0.69%	0.16%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Baltimore Ravens 31.19% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

37.42%

Win Prob

73.91%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

59.86%

Win Prob

60.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

32.73%

Win Prob

63.97%

Kansas City Chiefs 16.26% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

55.78%

Win Prob

56.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

67.05%

Win Prob

39.41%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

31.06%

Win Prob

57.06%

San Francisco 49ers 13.26% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

35.61%

Win Prob

64.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

48.41%

Win Prob

56.41%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

43.36%

Win Prob

36.03%

New Orleans Saints 11.27% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.79%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.89%

Win Prob

54.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

41.61%

Win Prob

42.06%

Green Bay Packers 8.07% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

52.81%

Win Prob

38.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

55.50%

Win Prob

43.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

39.16%

Win Prob

31.57%

New England Patriots 6.21% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.09%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

70.59%

Win Prob

38.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

30.43%

Win Prob

54.00%

Minnesota Vikings 3.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.21%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

56.06%

Win Prob

53.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

39.73%

Win Prob

34.35%

Philadelphia Eagles 2.69% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.27%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.54%

Win Prob

35.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

30.33%

Win Prob

32.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

41.26%

Win Prob

30.33%

Tennessee Titans 2.17% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.91%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.09%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

63.34%

Win Prob

41.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

31.80%

Win Prob

51.88%

Seattle Seahawks 1.95% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.73%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

58.29%

Win Prob

34.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

31.28%

Win Prob

30.98%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

44.10%

Win Prob

27.13%

Buffalo Bills 1.76% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.16%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

52.99%

Win Prob

21.82%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

29.07%

Win Prob

30.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

30.68%

Win Prob

55.67%

Houston Texans 1.47% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.84%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

53.39%

Win Prob

20.76%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

29.97%

Win Prob

31.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

35.37%

Win Prob

41.60%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2019-09-08	Detroit Lions	T 27-27	1380.55	1488.97	36.68%	62.79%	+1.06	0-0
2019-09-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-23	1381.61	1600.65	20.42%	79.05%	-8.18	0-1
2019-09-22	Carolina Panthers	L 20-38	1373.43	1448.95	41.18%	58.29%	-28.53	0-2
2019-09-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-27	1344.90	1548.89	25.05%	74.43%	-16.90	0-3
2019-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-23	1328.00	1354.35	43.76%	55.71%	+15.74	1-3
2019-10-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-33	1343.74	1429.20	39.80%	59.67%	+9.73	2-3
2019-10-20	@ New York Giants	W 27-21	1353.47	1404.10	40.35%	59.12%	+23.61	3-3
2019-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 9-31	1377.08	1660.87	15.02%	84.45%	-11.54	3-4
2019-10-31	San Francisco 49ers	L 25-28	1365.54	1643.07	17.96%	81.52%	-5.09	3-5
2019-11-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-30	1360.45	1420.08	39.11%	60.36%	-11.07	3-6
2019-11-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 26-36	1349.38	1630.69	15.20%	84.27%	-7.87	3-7
2019-12-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-34	1341.51	1552.99	24.25%	75.23%	-20.61	3-8
2019-12-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-23	1320.90	1559.73	21.47%	78.00%	-8.61	3-9
2019-12-15	Cleveland Browns	W 38-24	1312.29	1491.53	27.82%	71.66%	+43.71	4-9
2019-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-13	1356.00	1609.93	17.35%	82.12%	+50.10	5-9
2019-12-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 24-31	1406.10	1553.35	27.95%	71.52%	-12.10	5-10
2019-09-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 12-28	1509.42	1525.84	45.17%	54.30%	-29.49	0-1
2019-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1479.93	1573.06	38.75%	60.72%	+19.80	1-1
2019-09-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-27	1499.73	1556.44	39.51%	59.96%	-11.18	1-2
2019-09-29	Tennessee Titans	L 10-24	1488.55	1504.73	49.63%	49.85%	-30.30	1-3
2019-10-06	@ Houston Texans	L 32-53	1458.25	1520.10	38.81%	60.66%	-29.05	1-4
2019-10-13	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 33-34	1429.20	1343.74	59.67%	39.80%	-9.73	1-5
2019-10-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-37	1419.47	1547.39	34.12%	65.36%	-28.97	1-6
2019-10-27	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-27	1390.50	1552.76	29.82%	69.65%	-12.90	1-7
2019-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-9	1377.60	1672.41	14.23%	85.24%	+57.31	2-7
2019-11-17	@ Carolina Panthers	W 29-3	1434.91	1508.46	37.22%	62.25%	+51.75	3-7
2019-11-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 22-35	1486.66	1412.75	62.30%	37.17%	-36.62	3-8
2019-11-28	New Orleans Saints	L 18-26	1450.04	1640.48	26.54%	72.93%	-12.28	3-9
2019-12-08	Carolina Panthers	W 40-20	1437.76	1416.45	55.00%	44.47%	+32.47	4-9
2019-12-15	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 29-22	1470.23	1673.12	21.97%	77.50%	+33.43	5-9
2019-12-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-12	1503.66	1353.76	71.83%	27.64%	+15.66	6-9
2019-12-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-22	1519.32	1509.91	48.87%	50.60%	+20.22	7-9
2019-09-08	@ Miami Dolphins	W 59-10	1566.44	1404.76	69.58%	29.89%	+34.21	1-0
2019-09-15	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-17	1600.65	1381.61	79.05%	20.42%	+8.19	2-0
2019-09-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-33	1608.84	1621.90	45.65%	53.83%	-16.66	2-1
2019-09-29	Cleveland Browns	L 25-40	1592.18	1456.10	70.21%	29.26%	-44.33	2-2
2019-10-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-23	1547.85	1521.45	51.31%	48.16%	+13.61	3-2
2019-10-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-17	1561.46	1338.61	79.41%	20.07%	+8.05	4-2
2019-10-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-16	1569.51	1585.89	45.17%	54.30%	+33.13	5-2
2019-11-03	New England Patriots	W 37-20	1602.64	1730.37	34.14%	65.33%	+43.91	6-2
2019-11-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 49-13	1646.55	1301.25	86.57%	12.90%	+12.69	7-2
2019-11-17	Houston Texans	W 41-7	1659.24	1593.16	61.24%	38.23%	+36.41	8-2
2019-11-25	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 45-6	1695.65	1590.92	62.30%	37.18%	+37.93	9-2
2019-12-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1733.58	1672.42	60.57%	38.90%	+11.01	10-2
2019-12-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-17	1744.59	1563.07	71.92%	27.55%	+11.92	11-2
2019-12-12	New York Jets	W 42-21	1756.51	1374.87	90.33%	9.14%	+6.87	12-2
2019-12-22	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-15	1763.38	1447.82	84.52%	14.95%	+9.79	13-2
2019-12-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-10	1773.17	1516.36	82.36%	17.11%	+3.97	14-2
2019-09-08	@ New York Jets	W 17-16	1447.38	1402.04	54.03%	45.44%	+7.42	1-0
2019-09-15	@ New York Giants	W 28-14	1454.80	1429.94	51.09%	48.38%	+29.54	2-0
2019-09-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-17	1484.34	1391.01	64.87%	34.60%	+11.31	3-0
2019-09-29	New England Patriots	L 10-16	1495.65	1675.39	27.76%	71.71%	-11.12	3-1
2019-10-06	@ Tennessee Titans	W 14-7	1484.53	1535.03	40.37%	59.10%	+25.49	4-1
2019-10-20	Miami Dolphins	W 31-21	1510.02	1308.60	77.36%	22.12%	+11.45	5-1
2019-10-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-31	1521.47	1499.55	55.09%	44.39%	-38.12	5-2
2019-11-03	Washington Redskins	W 24-9	1483.35	1328.37	72.41%	27.06%	+17.15	6-2
2019-11-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 16-19	1500.50	1422.86	58.59%	40.89%	-16.55	6-3
2019-11-17	@ Miami Dolphins	W 37-20	1483.95	1337.35	67.73%	31.74%	+21.40	7-3
2019-11-24	Denver Broncos	W 20-3	1505.35	1443.86	60.61%	38.86%	+26.17	8-3
2019-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 26-15	1531.52	1576.56	41.13%	58.34%	+31.55	9-3
2019-12-08	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-24	1563.07	1744.59	27.55%	71.92%	-11.92	9-4
2019-12-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1551.15	1568.34	45.06%	54.41%	+23.48	10-4
2019-12-21	@ New England Patriots	L 17-24	1574.63	1668.34	34.55%	64.92%	-14.94	10-5
2019-12-29	New York Jets	L 6-13	1559.69	1396.51	73.33%	26.14%	-10.55	10-6
2019-09-08	Los Angeles Rams	L 27-30	1483.76	1576.69	38.78%	60.70%	-10.97	0-1
2019-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-20	1472.79	1417.97	59.70%	39.77%	-23.84	0-2
2019-09-22	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 38-20	1448.95	1373.43	58.29%	41.18%	+28.53	1-2
2019-09-29	@ Houston Texans	W 16-10	1477.48	1544.62	38.09%	61.38%	+24.51	2-2
2019-10-06	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-27	1501.99	1478.51	55.31%	44.16%	+19.08	3-2
2019-10-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-26	1521.07	1468.42	57.25%	42.22%	+22.87	4-2
2019-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-51	1543.94	1603.70	39.09%	60.38%	-39.37	4-3
2019-11-03	Tennessee Titans	W 30-20	1504.57	1499.65	52.66%	46.81%	+24.16	5-3
2019-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-24	1528.73	1554.11	43.90%	55.58%	-20.27	5-4
2019-11-17	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-29	1508.46	1434.91	62.25%	37.22%	-51.75	5-5
2019-11-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 31-34	1456.71	1633.49	24.66%	74.81%	-6.98	5-6
2019-12-01	Washington Redskins	L 21-29	1449.73	1296.73	72.18%	27.29%	-33.28	5-7
2019-12-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-40	1416.45	1437.76	44.47%	55.00%	-32.47	5-8
2019-12-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-30	1383.98	1600.42	23.73%	75.75%	-9.51	5-9
2019-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-38	1374.47	1485.55	32.33%	67.14%	-29.89	5-10
2019-12-29	New Orleans Saints	L 10-42	1344.58	1685.91	13.16%	86.31%	-12.20	5-11
2019-09-05	Green Bay Packers	L 3-10	1582.35	1454.89	69.17%	30.30%	-29.83	0-1
2019-09-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-14	1552.52	1436.25	63.83%	35.64%	+8.23	1-1
2019-09-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-15	1560.75	1402.08	69.22%	30.25%	+19.79	2-1
2019-09-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-6	1580.54	1556.89	55.33%	44.14%	+22.79	3-1
2019-10-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1603.33	1421.26	73.72%	25.76%	-20.82	3-2
2019-10-20	New Orleans Saints	L 25-36	1582.51	1636.97	44.15%	55.33%	-23.90	3-3
2019-10-27	Los Angeles Chargers	L 16-17	1558.61	1492.06	61.30%	38.17%	-9.99	3-4
2019-11-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-22	1548.62	1537.67	49.09%	50.38%	-22.66	3-5
2019-11-10	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1525.96	1467.83	60.15%	39.32%	+16.99	4-5
2019-11-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-17	1542.95	1568.25	43.91%	55.57%	-22.67	4-6
2019-11-24	New York Giants	W 19-14	1520.28	1326.27	76.61%	22.86%	+8.37	5-6
2019-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1528.65	1415.09	63.48%	36.00%	+11.76	6-6
2019-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-24	1540.41	1545.00	51.29%	48.18%	+20.80	7-6
2019-12-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-21	1561.21	1563.77	47.15%	52.32%	-21.76	7-7
2019-12-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-26	1539.45	1674.34	33.22%	66.25%	-26.04	7-8
2019-12-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 21-19	1513.41	1622.26	32.61%	66.86%	+5.13	8-8
2019-09-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-21	1432.67	1553.08	31.16%	68.31%	-5.10	0-1
2019-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-41	1427.57	1470.99	45.72%	53.75%	-36.56	0-2
2019-09-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-21	1391.01	1484.34	34.60%	64.87%	-11.31	0-3
2019-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1379.70	1496.10	31.66%	67.81%	-25.35	0-4
2019-10-06	Arizona Cardinals	L 23-26	1354.35	1328.00	55.71%	43.76%	-15.74	0-5
2019-10-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-23	1338.61	1561.46	20.07%	79.41%	-8.04	0-6
2019-10-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-27	1330.57	1446.66	35.66%	63.81%	-18.43	0-7
2019-10-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1312.14	1576.36	17.78%	81.70%	-10.89	0-8
2019-11-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-49	1301.25	1646.55	12.90%	86.57%	-12.68	0-9
2019-11-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1288.57	1450.40	26.29%	73.18%	-11.38	0-10
2019-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-16	1277.19	1534.00	19.78%	79.69%	-7.93	0-11
2019-12-01	New York Jets	W 22-6	1269.26	1411.85	32.24%	67.23%	+43.84	1-11
2019-12-08	@ Cleveland Browns	L 19-27	1313.10	1479.61	25.77%	73.70%	-11.93	1-12
2019-12-15	New England Patriots	L 13-34	1301.17	1659.26	12.10%	87.37%	-9.08	1-13
2019-12-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 35-38	1292.09	1288.40	48.05%	51.42%	-13.58	1-14
2019-12-29	Cleveland Browns	W 33-23	1278.51	1438.03	30.15%	69.32%	+35.73	2-14
2019-09-08	Tennessee Titans	L 13-43	1477.89	1512.05	47.04%	52.43%	-42.06	0-1
2019-09-16	@ New York Jets	W 23-3	1435.83	1394.63	53.44%	46.03%	+33.61	1-1
2019-09-22	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-20	1469.44	1623.41	30.83%	68.64%	-13.34	1-2
2019-09-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 40-25	1456.10	1592.18	29.26%	70.21%	+44.33	2-2
2019-10-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-31	1500.43	1523.25	44.26%	55.22%	-38.23	2-3
2019-10-13	Seattle Seahawks	L 28-32	1462.20	1574.05	36.22%	63.25%	-11.84	2-4
2019-10-27	@ New England Patriots	L 13-27	1450.36	1720.53	16.05%	83.42%	-9.83	2-5
2019-11-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-24	1440.53	1434.34	48.41%	51.06%	-17.67	2-6
2019-11-10	Buffalo Bills	W 19-16	1422.86	1500.50	40.89%	58.59%	+16.55	3-6
2019-11-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-7	1439.41	1574.42	33.20%	66.27%	+40.42	4-6
2019-11-24	Miami Dolphins	W 41-24	1479.83	1315.96	73.41%	26.06%	+17.58	5-6
2019-12-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-20	1497.41	1541.93	41.20%	58.27%	-17.80	5-7
2019-12-08	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-19	1479.61	1313.10	73.70%	25.77%	+11.92	6-7
2019-12-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-38	1491.53	1312.29	71.66%	27.82%	-43.71	6-8
2019-12-22	Baltimore Ravens	L 15-31	1447.82	1763.38	14.95%	84.52%	-9.79	6-9
2019-12-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-33	1438.03	1278.51	69.32%	30.15%	-35.74	6-10
2019-09-08	New York Giants	W 35-17	1525.66	1456.11	61.71%	37.76%	+26.17	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 31-21	1551.83	1419.41	65.94%	33.54%	+17.33	2-0
2019-09-22	Miami Dolphins	W 31-6	1569.16	1351.19	78.95%	20.52%	+16.80	3-0
2019-09-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-12	1585.96	1600.73	45.40%	54.07%	-10.49	3-1
2019-10-06	Green Bay Packers	L 24-34	1575.47	1503.86	61.99%	37.48%	-31.96	3-2
2019-10-13	@ New York Jets	L 22-24	1543.51	1334.47	74.97%	24.51%	-17.28	3-3
2019-10-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-10	1526.23	1541.73	49.73%	49.75%	+42.18	4-3
2019-11-04	@ New York Giants	W 37-18	1568.41	1368.18	74.02%	25.46%	+18.15	5-3
2019-11-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 24-28	1586.56	1610.80	48.47%	51.00%	-15.82	5-4
2019-11-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 35-27	1570.74	1450.84	64.31%	35.16%	+16.25	6-4
2019-11-24	@ New England Patriots	L 9-13	1586.99	1701.31	31.92%	67.55%	-10.43	6-5
2019-11-28	Buffalo Bills	L 15-26	1576.56	1531.52	58.34%	41.13%	-31.56	6-6
2019-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-31	1545.00	1540.41	48.18%	51.29%	-20.80	6-7
2019-12-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 44-21	1524.20	1610.55	39.68%	59.79%	+46.76	7-7
2019-12-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-17	1570.96	1517.65	55.16%	44.31%	-25.45	7-8
2019-12-29	Washington Redskins	W 47-16	1545.51	1288.75	82.36%	17.12%	+15.61	8-8
2019-09-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-24	1461.87	1405.85	55.55%	43.92%	-25.62	0-1
2019-09-15	Chicago Bears	L 14-16	1436.25	1552.52	35.64%	63.83%	-8.24	0-2
2019-09-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-27	1428.01	1505.73	36.66%	62.81%	-19.87	0-3
2019-09-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-26	1408.14	1468.51	43.31%	56.16%	-10.00	0-4
2019-10-06	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-13	1398.14	1562.45	26.02%	73.46%	+31.69	1-4
2019-10-13	Tennessee Titans	W 16-0	1429.83	1509.53	40.60%	58.87%	+38.39	2-4
2019-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-30	1468.22	1596.31	34.09%	65.38%	-27.29	2-5
2019-10-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-15	1440.93	1583.64	28.48%	70.99%	-6.59	2-6
2019-11-03	Cleveland Browns	W 24-19	1434.34	1440.53	51.06%	48.41%	+17.66	3-6
2019-11-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-27	1452.00	1626.62	24.89%	74.58%	-8.14	3-7
2019-11-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-20	1443.86	1505.35	38.86%	60.61%	-26.17	3-8
2019-12-01	Los Angeles Chargers	W 23-20	1417.69	1508.46	39.07%	60.40%	+17.06	4-8
2019-12-08	@ Houston Texans	W 38-24	1434.75	1597.69	26.17%	73.31%	+44.71	5-8
2019-12-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-23	1479.46	1656.31	24.65%	74.82%	-18.04	5-9
2019-12-22	Detroit Lions	W 27-17	1461.42	1362.85	65.55%	33.92%	+17.54	6-9
2019-12-29	Oakland Raiders	W 16-15	1478.96	1376.41	66.06%	33.41%	+5.46	7-9
2019-09-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	T 27-27	1488.97	1380.55	62.79%	36.68%	-1.06	0-0
2019-09-15	Los Angeles Chargers	W 13-10	1487.91	1587.54	37.86%	61.61%	+17.40	1-0
2019-09-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1505.31	1553.26	40.72%	58.75%	+16.59	2-0
2019-09-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-34	1521.90	1638.57	35.59%	63.89%	-11.63	2-1
2019-10-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 22-23	1510.27	1535.82	43.87%	55.60%	-7.17	2-2
2019-10-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 30-42	1503.10	1595.49	38.85%	60.62%	-21.98	2-3
2019-10-27	New York Giants	W 31-26	1481.12	1380.48	65.82%	33.66%	+12.30	3-3
2019-11-03	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-31	1493.42	1410.46	59.33%	40.15%	-25.59	3-4
2019-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-20	1467.83	1525.96	39.32%	60.15%	-16.99	3-5
2019-11-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 27-35	1450.84	1570.74	35.16%	64.31%	-16.25	3-6
2019-11-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-19	1434.59	1277.23	69.06%	30.42%	-19.50	3-7
2019-11-28	Chicago Bears	L 20-24	1415.09	1528.65	36.00%	63.48%	-11.77	3-8
2019-12-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-20	1403.32	1613.06	21.30%	78.17%	-12.57	3-9
2019-12-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-38	1390.75	1494.83	37.26%	62.21%	-27.90	3-10
2019-12-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-27	1362.85	1461.42	33.92%	65.55%	-17.53	3-11
2019-12-29	Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1345.32	1622.11	18.02%	81.45%	-5.11	3-12
2019-09-05	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-3	1454.89	1582.35	30.30%	69.17%	+29.84	1-0
2019-09-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-16	1484.73	1555.33	41.87%	57.61%	+21.00	2-0
2019-09-22	Denver Broncos	W 27-16	1505.73	1428.01	62.81%	36.66%	+19.87	3-0
2019-09-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-34	1525.60	1536.67	50.36%	49.11%	-21.74	3-1
2019-10-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-24	1503.86	1575.47	37.48%	61.99%	+31.96	4-1
2019-10-14	Detroit Lions	W 23-22	1535.82	1510.27	55.60%	43.87%	+7.16	5-1
2019-10-20	Oakland Raiders	W 42-24	1542.98	1442.07	65.85%	33.62%	+23.31	6-1
2019-10-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1566.29	1623.61	39.43%	60.04%	+25.90	7-1
2019-11-03	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 11-26	1592.19	1502.05	60.32%	39.16%	-38.08	7-2
2019-11-10	Carolina Panthers	W 24-16	1554.11	1528.73	55.58%	43.90%	+20.27	8-2
2019-11-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 8-37	1574.38	1638.56	38.49%	60.98%	-33.86	8-3
2019-12-01	@ New York Giants	W 31-13	1540.52	1317.90	76.38%	23.09%	+16.03	9-3
2019-12-08	Washington Redskins	W 20-15	1556.55	1330.01	79.74%	19.73%	+7.22	10-3
2019-12-15	Chicago Bears	W 21-13	1563.77	1561.21	52.32%	47.15%	+21.76	11-3
2019-12-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 23-10	1585.53	1658.84	37.26%	62.22%	+36.58	12-3
2019-12-29	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1622.11	1345.32	81.45%	18.02%	+5.11	13-3
2019-09-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-30	1521.24	1608.20	35.44%	64.04%	-8.19	0-1
2019-09-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 13-12	1513.05	1437.49	62.52%	36.95%	+6.04	1-1
2019-09-22	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-20	1519.09	1570.14	40.29%	59.18%	+25.53	2-1
2019-09-29	Carolina Panthers	L 10-16	1544.62	1477.48	61.38%	38.09%	-24.52	2-2
2019-10-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 53-32	1520.10	1458.25	60.66%	38.81%	+29.05	3-2
2019-10-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1549.15	1623.19	37.16%	62.32%	+26.88	4-2
2019-10-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-30	1576.03	1562.27	49.50%	49.97%	-21.37	4-3
2019-10-27	Oakland Raiders	W 27-24	1554.66	1418.76	70.19%	29.28%	+8.30	5-3
2019-11-03	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-3	1562.96	1483.83	60.92%	38.55%	+30.20	6-3
2019-11-17	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-41	1593.16	1659.24	38.23%	61.24%	-36.42	6-4
2019-11-21	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-17	1556.74	1575.51	49.26%	50.22%	+14.19	7-4
2019-12-01	New England Patriots	W 28-22	1570.93	1711.74	32.47%	67.00%	+26.76	8-4
2019-12-08	Denver Broncos	L 24-38	1597.69	1434.75	73.31%	26.17%	-44.71	8-5
2019-12-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-21	1552.98	1579.94	43.67%	55.80%	+15.76	9-5
2019-12-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1568.74	1522.73	54.13%	45.35%	+12.82	10-5
2019-12-29	Tennessee Titans	L 14-35	1581.56	1544.81	57.18%	42.29%	-42.73	10-6
2019-09-08	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-30	1562.78	1568.89	46.64%	52.83%	-18.65	0-1
2019-09-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-17	1544.13	1554.10	46.09%	53.38%	+12.31	1-1
2019-09-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1556.44	1499.73	59.96%	39.51%	+11.18	2-1
2019-09-29	Oakland Raiders	L 24-31	1567.62	1388.90	75.02%	24.45%	-32.36	2-2
2019-10-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-13	1535.26	1650.20	31.84%	67.63%	+27.01	3-2
2019-10-20	Houston Texans	W 30-23	1562.27	1576.03	49.97%	49.50%	+21.37	4-2
2019-10-27	Denver Broncos	W 15-13	1583.64	1440.93	70.99%	28.48%	+6.58	5-2
2019-11-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-26	1590.22	1542.89	54.31%	45.16%	-12.52	5-3
2019-11-10	Miami Dolphins	L 12-16	1577.70	1310.22	83.21%	16.26%	-27.14	5-4
2019-11-17	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 33-13	1550.56	1453.62	65.34%	34.13%	+24.95	6-4
2019-11-21	@ Houston Texans	L 17-20	1575.51	1556.74	50.22%	49.26%	-14.19	6-5
2019-12-01	Tennessee Titans	L 17-31	1561.32	1523.61	57.32%	42.16%	-34.97	6-6
2019-12-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 35-38	1526.35	1479.51	54.24%	45.23%	-15.33	6-7
2019-12-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-34	1511.02	1641.06	29.99%	69.48%	-25.47	6-8
2019-12-22	Carolina Panthers	W 38-6	1485.55	1374.47	67.14%	32.33%	+29.89	7-8
2019-12-29	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-38	1515.44	1338.10	71.44%	28.04%	-49.41	7-9
2019-09-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 26-40	1458.84	1580.54	34.93%	64.55%	-21.35	0-1
2019-09-15	@ Houston Texans	L 12-13	1437.49	1513.05	36.95%	62.52%	-6.04	0-2
2019-09-19	Tennessee Titans	W 20-7	1431.45	1541.79	36.43%	63.05%	+37.06	1-2
2019-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-24	1468.51	1408.14	56.16%	43.31%	+10.00	2-2
2019-10-06	@ Carolina Panthers	L 27-34	1478.51	1501.99	44.16%	55.31%	-19.08	2-3
2019-10-13	New Orleans Saints	L 6-13	1459.43	1624.20	29.52%	69.95%	-12.77	2-4
2019-10-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-17	1446.66	1330.57	63.81%	35.66%	+18.43	3-4
2019-10-27	New York Jets	W 29-15	1465.09	1340.33	68.84%	30.63%	+18.74	4-4
2019-11-03	Houston Texans	L 3-26	1483.83	1562.96	38.55%	60.92%	-30.21	4-5
2019-11-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-33	1453.62	1550.56	34.13%	65.34%	-24.94	4-6
2019-11-24	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-42	1428.68	1494.27	38.30%	61.17%	-29.35	4-7
2019-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 11-28	1399.33	1449.37	44.77%	54.70%	-30.14	4-8
2019-12-08	Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-45	1369.19	1491.40	34.86%	64.61%	-33.70	4-9
2019-12-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-16	1335.49	1363.87	43.47%	56.00%	+18.27	5-9
2019-12-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 12-24	1353.76	1503.66	27.64%	71.83%	-15.66	5-10
2019-12-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-20	1338.10	1515.44	28.04%	71.44%	+49.40	6-10
2019-09-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 40-26	1580.54	1458.84	64.55%	34.93%	+21.35	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-10	1601.89	1431.48	70.62%	28.85%	+20.01	2-0
2019-09-22	Baltimore Ravens	W 33-28	1621.90	1608.84	53.83%	45.65%	+16.67	3-0
2019-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-30	1638.57	1521.90	63.89%	35.59%	+11.63	4-0
2019-10-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-19	1650.20	1535.26	67.63%	31.84%	-27.01	4-1
2019-10-13	Houston Texans	L 24-31	1623.19	1549.15	62.32%	37.16%	-26.88	4-2
2019-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-6	1596.31	1468.22	65.38%	34.09%	+27.30	5-2
2019-10-27	Green Bay Packers	L 24-31	1623.61	1566.29	60.04%	39.43%	-25.90	5-3
2019-11-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-23	1597.71	1625.35	47.98%	51.49%	+14.55	6-3
2019-11-10	@ Tennessee Titans	L 32-35	1612.26	1475.49	66.49%	32.98%	-18.78	6-4
2019-11-18	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-17	1593.48	1525.80	59.35%	40.13%	+17.34	7-4
2019-12-01	Oakland Raiders	W 40-9	1610.82	1404.99	77.79%	21.68%	+19.76	8-4
2019-12-08	@ New England Patriots	W 23-16	1630.58	1684.99	39.83%	59.64%	+25.73	9-4
2019-12-15	Denver Broncos	W 23-3	1656.31	1479.46	74.82%	24.65%	+18.03	10-4
2019-12-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-3	1674.34	1539.45	66.25%	33.22%	+26.04	11-4
2019-12-29	Los Angeles Chargers	W 31-21	1700.38	1461.10	80.88%	18.59%	+9.63	12-4
2019-09-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-24	1568.89	1562.78	52.83%	46.64%	+18.65	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1587.54	1487.91	61.61%	37.86%	-17.40	1-1
2019-09-22	Houston Texans	L 20-27	1570.14	1519.09	59.18%	40.29%	-25.53	1-2
2019-09-29	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-10	1544.61	1334.40	75.09%	24.38%	+17.84	2-2
2019-10-06	Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1562.45	1398.14	73.46%	26.02%	-31.68	2-3
2019-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1530.77	1507.84	55.23%	44.24%	-23.83	2-4
2019-10-20	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-23	1506.94	1471.13	52.67%	46.81%	-14.88	2-5
2019-10-27	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-16	1492.06	1558.61	38.17%	61.30%	+9.99	3-5
2019-11-03	Green Bay Packers	W 26-11	1502.05	1592.19	39.16%	60.32%	+38.09	4-5
2019-11-07	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-26	1540.14	1436.05	62.21%	37.26%	-14.34	4-6
2019-11-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-24	1525.80	1593.48	40.13%	59.35%	-17.34	4-7
2019-12-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1508.46	1417.69	60.40%	39.07%	-17.06	4-8
2019-12-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 45-10	1491.40	1369.19	64.61%	34.86%	+33.70	5-8
2019-12-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-39	1525.10	1625.63	37.74%	61.73%	-33.20	5-9
2019-12-22	Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1491.90	1345.61	71.41%	28.06%	-30.80	5-10
2019-12-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-31	1461.10	1700.38	18.59%	80.88%	-9.63	5-11
2019-09-08	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-27	1576.69	1483.76	60.70%	38.78%	+10.97	1-0
2019-09-15	New Orleans Saints	W 27-9	1587.66	1616.39	47.82%	51.65%	+35.75	2-0
2019-09-22	@ Cleveland Browns	W 20-13	1623.41	1469.44	68.64%	30.83%	+13.34	3-0
2019-09-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 40-55	1636.75	1432.38	77.65%	21.83%	-49.03	3-1
2019-10-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 29-30	1587.72	1565.79	50.67%	48.80%	-8.27	3-2
2019-10-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-20	1579.45	1561.49	54.52%	44.95%	-32.06	3-3
2019-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 37-10	1547.39	1419.47	65.36%	34.12%	+28.97	4-3
2019-10-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-10	1576.36	1312.14	81.70%	17.78%	+10.89	5-3
2019-11-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-17	1587.25	1555.42	52.10%	47.38%	-19.00	5-4
2019-11-17	Chicago Bears	W 17-7	1568.25	1542.95	55.57%	43.91%	+22.67	6-4
2019-11-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 6-45	1590.92	1695.65	37.18%	62.30%	-37.93	6-5
2019-12-01	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-7	1552.99	1341.51	75.23%	24.25%	+20.61	7-5
2019-12-08	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-12	1573.60	1637.36	42.83%	56.64%	+36.95	8-5
2019-12-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-44	1610.55	1524.20	59.79%	39.68%	-46.76	8-6
2019-12-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-34	1563.79	1639.69	36.91%	62.57%	-10.44	8-7
2019-12-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-24	1553.35	1406.10	71.52%	27.95%	+12.09	9-7
2019-09-08	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-59	1404.76	1566.44	29.89%	69.58%	-34.21	0-1
2019-09-15	New England Patriots	L 0-43	1370.55	1647.19	18.03%	81.44%	-19.36	0-2
2019-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-31	1351.19	1569.16	20.52%	78.95%	-16.79	0-3
2019-09-29	Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-30	1334.40	1544.61	24.38%	75.09%	-17.84	0-4
2019-10-13	Washington Redskins	L 16-17	1316.56	1338.44	48.81%	50.67%	-7.96	0-5
2019-10-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-31	1308.60	1510.02	22.12%	77.36%	-11.45	0-6
2019-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1297.15	1531.67	19.01%	80.46%	-11.22	0-7
2019-11-03	New York Jets	W 26-18	1285.93	1321.59	46.83%	52.64%	+24.29	1-7
2019-11-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-12	1310.22	1577.70	16.26%	83.21%	+27.13	2-7
2019-11-17	Buffalo Bills	L 20-37	1337.35	1483.95	31.74%	67.73%	-21.39	2-8
2019-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns	L 24-41	1315.96	1479.83	26.06%	73.41%	-17.58	2-9
2019-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-31	1298.38	1524.76	22.71%	76.77%	+30.66	3-9
2019-12-08	@ New York Jets	L 21-22	1329.04	1368.02	41.98%	57.50%	-6.86	3-10
2019-12-15	@ New York Giants	L 20-36	1322.18	1292.64	51.77%	47.71%	-33.78	3-11
2019-12-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-35	1288.40	1292.09	51.42%	48.05%	+13.58	4-11
2019-12-29	@ New England Patriots	W 27-24	1301.98	1683.28	9.16%	90.31%	+25.51	5-11
2019-09-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-12	1525.84	1509.42	54.30%	45.17%	+29.49	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-21	1555.33	1484.73	57.61%	41.87%	-21.00	1-1
2019-09-22	Oakland Raiders	W 34-14	1534.33	1411.46	68.61%	30.86%	+22.56	2-1
2019-09-29	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-16	1556.89	1580.54	44.14%	55.33%	-22.79	2-2
2019-10-06	@ New York Giants	W 28-10	1534.10	1442.44	60.52%	38.95%	+27.00	3-2
2019-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-20	1561.10	1576.12	49.79%	49.68%	+34.39	4-2
2019-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-30	1595.49	1503.10	60.62%	38.85%	+21.98	5-2
2019-10-24	Washington Redskins	W 19-9	1617.47	1336.25	84.26%	15.21%	+7.88	6-2
2019-11-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-26	1625.35	1597.71	51.49%	47.98%	-14.55	6-3
2019-11-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-24	1610.80	1586.56	51.00%	48.47%	+15.82	7-3
2019-11-17	Denver Broncos	W 27-23	1626.62	1452.00	74.58%	24.89%	+8.14	8-3
2019-12-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 30-37	1634.76	1615.67	50.26%	49.21%	-21.70	8-4
2019-12-08	Detroit Lions	W 20-7	1613.06	1403.32	78.17%	21.30%	+12.57	9-4
2019-12-15	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 39-10	1625.63	1525.10	61.73%	37.74%	+33.21	10-4
2019-12-23	Green Bay Packers	L 10-23	1658.84	1585.53	62.22%	37.26%	-36.58	10-5
2019-12-29	Chicago Bears	L 19-21	1622.26	1513.41	66.86%	32.61%	-5.13	10-6
2019-09-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-3	1611.38	1558.43	59.44%	40.03%	+35.81	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Miami Dolphins	W 43-0	1647.19	1370.55	81.44%	18.03%	+19.36	2-0
2019-09-22	New York Jets	W 30-14	1666.55	1361.02	85.98%	13.49%	+8.84	3-0
2019-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 16-10	1675.39	1495.65	71.71%	27.76%	+11.12	4-0
2019-10-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-7	1686.51	1349.68	86.01%	13.46%	+11.24	5-0
2019-10-10	New York Giants	W 35-14	1697.75	1415.45	84.34%	15.13%	+11.36	6-0
2019-10-21	@ New York Jets	W 33-0	1709.11	1351.75	87.33%	12.14%	+11.42	7-0
2019-10-27	Cleveland Browns	W 27-13	1720.53	1450.36	83.42%	16.05%	+9.84	8-0
2019-11-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-37	1730.37	1602.64	65.33%	34.14%	-43.92	8-1
2019-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-10	1686.45	1560.32	65.13%	34.35%	+14.86	9-1
2019-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-9	1701.31	1586.99	67.55%	31.92%	+10.43	10-1
2019-12-01	@ Houston Texans	L 22-28	1711.74	1570.93	67.00%	32.47%	-26.75	10-2
2019-12-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-23	1684.99	1630.58	59.64%	39.83%	-25.73	10-3
2019-12-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-13	1659.26	1301.17	87.37%	12.10%	+9.08	11-3
2019-12-21	Buffalo Bills	W 24-17	1668.34	1574.63	64.92%	34.55%	+14.94	12-3
2019-12-29	Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1683.28	1301.98	90.31%	9.16%	-25.51	12-4
2019-09-09	Houston Texans	W 30-28	1608.20	1521.24	64.04%	35.44%	+8.19	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-27	1616.39	1587.66	51.65%	47.82%	-35.75	1-1
2019-09-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 33-27	1580.64	1568.99	49.19%	50.28%	+20.09	2-1
2019-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	W 12-10	1600.73	1585.96	54.07%	45.40%	+10.48	3-1
2019-10-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-24	1611.21	1481.40	69.46%	30.01%	+12.99	4-1
2019-10-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 13-6	1624.20	1459.43	69.95%	29.52%	+12.77	5-1
2019-10-20	@ Chicago Bears	W 36-25	1636.97	1582.51	55.33%	44.15%	+23.90	6-1
2019-10-27	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-9	1660.87	1377.08	84.45%	15.02%	+11.54	7-1
2019-11-10	Atlanta Falcons	L 9-26	1672.41	1377.60	85.24%	14.23%	-57.31	7-2
2019-11-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-17	1615.10	1431.14	72.20%	27.27%	+18.39	8-2
2019-11-24	Carolina Panthers	W 34-31	1633.49	1456.71	74.81%	24.66%	+6.99	9-2
2019-11-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-18	1640.48	1450.04	72.93%	26.54%	+12.28	10-2
2019-12-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 46-48	1652.76	1661.42	50.71%	48.76%	-11.70	10-3
2019-12-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-7	1641.06	1511.02	69.48%	29.99%	+25.48	11-3
2019-12-22	@ Tennessee Titans	W 38-28	1666.54	1564.18	61.98%	37.50%	+19.37	12-3
2019-12-29	@ Carolina Panthers	W 42-10	1685.91	1344.58	86.31%	13.16%	+12.19	13-3
2019-09-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-35	1456.11	1525.66	37.76%	61.71%	-26.17	0-1
2019-09-15	Buffalo Bills	L 14-28	1429.94	1454.80	48.38%	51.09%	-29.54	0-2
2019-09-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-31	1400.40	1441.81	41.64%	57.84%	+9.43	1-2
2019-09-29	Washington Redskins	W 24-3	1409.83	1382.29	55.88%	43.59%	+32.61	2-2
2019-10-06	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-28	1442.44	1534.10	38.95%	60.52%	-26.99	2-3
2019-10-10	@ New England Patriots	L 14-35	1415.45	1697.75	15.13%	84.34%	-11.35	2-4
2019-10-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 21-27	1404.10	1353.47	59.12%	40.35%	-23.62	2-5
2019-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 26-31	1380.48	1481.12	33.66%	65.82%	-12.30	2-6
2019-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 18-37	1368.18	1568.41	25.46%	74.02%	-18.15	2-7
2019-11-10	@ New York Jets	L 27-34	1350.03	1297.30	55.08%	44.39%	-23.76	2-8
2019-11-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-19	1326.27	1520.28	22.86%	76.61%	-8.37	2-9
2019-12-01	Green Bay Packers	L 13-31	1317.90	1540.52	23.09%	76.38%	-16.03	2-10
2019-12-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-23	1301.87	1494.11	23.04%	76.43%	-9.23	2-11
2019-12-15	Miami Dolphins	W 36-20	1292.64	1322.18	47.71%	51.77%	+33.78	3-11
2019-12-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 41-35	1326.42	1308.49	50.10%	49.38%	+19.73	4-11
2019-12-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-34	1346.15	1543.10	25.82%	73.66%	-17.41	4-12
2019-09-08	Buffalo Bills	L 16-17	1402.04	1447.38	45.44%	54.03%	-7.41	0-1
2019-09-16	Cleveland Browns	L 3-23	1394.63	1435.83	46.03%	53.44%	-33.61	0-2
2019-09-22	@ New England Patriots	L 14-30	1361.02	1666.55	13.49%	85.98%	-8.84	0-3
2019-10-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 6-31	1352.18	1558.41	21.65%	77.83%	-17.71	0-4
2019-10-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-22	1334.47	1543.51	24.51%	74.97%	+17.28	1-4
2019-10-21	New England Patriots	L 0-33	1351.75	1709.11	12.14%	87.33%	-11.42	1-5
2019-10-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 15-29	1340.33	1465.09	30.63%	68.84%	-18.74	1-6
2019-11-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 18-26	1321.59	1285.93	52.64%	46.83%	-24.29	1-7
2019-11-10	New York Giants	W 34-27	1297.30	1350.03	44.39%	55.08%	+23.77	2-7
2019-11-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-17	1321.07	1311.23	48.93%	50.54%	+34.00	3-7
2019-11-24	Oakland Raiders	W 34-3	1355.07	1461.78	36.91%	62.56%	+56.78	4-7
2019-12-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-22	1411.85	1269.26	67.23%	32.24%	-43.83	4-8
2019-12-08	Miami Dolphins	W 22-21	1368.02	1329.04	57.50%	41.98%	+6.85	5-8
2019-12-12	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 21-42	1374.87	1756.51	9.14%	90.33%	-6.87	5-9
2019-12-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-10	1368.00	1544.86	28.09%	71.38%	+28.51	6-9
2019-12-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-6	1396.51	1559.69	26.14%	73.33%	+10.54	7-9
2019-09-09	Denver Broncos	W 24-16	1405.85	1461.87	43.92%	55.55%	+25.63	1-0
2019-09-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-28	1431.48	1601.89	28.85%	70.62%	-20.02	1-1
2019-09-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-34	1411.46	1534.33	30.86%	68.61%	-22.56	1-2
2019-09-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-24	1388.90	1567.62	24.45%	75.02%	+32.36	2-2
2019-10-06	Chicago Bears	W 24-21	1421.26	1603.33	25.76%	73.72%	+20.81	3-2
2019-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-42	1442.07	1542.98	33.62%	65.85%	-23.31	3-3
2019-10-27	@ Houston Texans	L 24-27	1418.76	1554.66	29.28%	70.19%	-8.30	3-4
2019-11-03	Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1410.46	1493.42	40.15%	59.33%	+25.59	4-4
2019-11-07	Los Angeles Chargers	W 26-24	1436.05	1540.14	37.26%	62.21%	+14.35	5-4
2019-11-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-10	1450.40	1288.57	73.18%	26.29%	+11.38	6-4
2019-11-24	@ New York Jets	L 3-34	1461.78	1355.07	62.56%	36.91%	-56.79	6-5
2019-12-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-40	1404.99	1610.82	21.68%	77.79%	-19.76	6-6
2019-12-08	Tennessee Titans	L 21-42	1385.23	1558.58	28.50%	70.97%	-21.36	6-7
2019-12-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-20	1363.87	1335.49	56.00%	43.47%	-18.26	6-8
2019-12-22	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-17	1345.61	1491.90	28.06%	71.41%	+30.80	7-8
2019-12-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 15-16	1376.41	1478.96	33.41%	66.06%	-5.47	7-9
2019-09-08	Washington Redskins	W 32-27	1562.18	1430.30	69.71%	29.77%	+10.88	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-24	1573.06	1479.93	60.72%	38.75%	-19.80	1-1
2019-09-22	Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1553.26	1505.31	58.75%	40.72%	-16.59	1-2
2019-09-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-27	1536.67	1525.60	49.11%	50.36%	+21.74	2-2
2019-10-06	New York Jets	W 31-6	1558.41	1352.18	77.83%	21.65%	+17.71	3-2
2019-10-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-38	1576.12	1561.10	49.68%	49.79%	-34.39	3-3
2019-10-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-37	1541.73	1526.23	49.75%	49.73%	-42.18	3-4
2019-10-27	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-13	1499.55	1521.47	44.39%	55.09%	+38.12	4-4
2019-11-03	Chicago Bears	W 22-14	1537.67	1548.62	50.38%	49.09%	+22.65	5-4
2019-11-17	New England Patriots	L 10-17	1560.32	1686.45	34.35%	65.13%	-14.85	5-5
2019-11-24	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-17	1545.47	1594.96	44.85%	54.62%	-20.71	5-6
2019-12-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 31-37	1524.76	1298.38	76.77%	22.71%	-30.65	5-7
2019-12-09	New York Giants	W 23-17	1494.11	1301.87	76.43%	23.04%	+9.23	6-7
2019-12-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 37-27	1503.34	1322.79	71.81%	27.67%	+14.31	7-7
2019-12-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-9	1517.65	1570.96	44.31%	55.16%	+25.45	8-7
2019-12-29	@ New York Giants	W 34-17	1543.10	1346.15	73.66%	25.82%	+17.41	9-7
2019-09-08	@ New England Patriots	L 3-33	1558.43	1611.38	40.03%	59.44%	-35.81	0-1
2019-09-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 26-28	1522.62	1558.17	46.84%	52.63%	-10.81	0-2
2019-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1511.81	1507.55	48.13%	51.34%	-15.71	0-3
2019-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-3	1496.10	1379.70	67.81%	31.66%	+25.35	1-3
2019-10-06	Baltimore Ravens	L 23-26	1521.45	1547.85	48.16%	51.31%	-13.61	1-4
2019-10-13	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-17	1507.84	1530.77	44.24%	55.23%	+23.83	2-4
2019-10-28	Miami Dolphins	W 27-14	1531.67	1297.15	80.46%	19.01%	+11.22	3-4
2019-11-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-24	1542.89	1590.22	45.16%	54.31%	+12.53	4-4
2019-11-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 17-12	1555.42	1587.25	47.38%	52.10%	+19.00	5-4
2019-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-21	1574.42	1439.41	66.27%	33.20%	-40.42	5-5
2019-11-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-10	1534.00	1277.19	79.69%	19.78%	+7.93	6-5
2019-12-01	Cleveland Browns	W 20-13	1541.93	1497.41	58.27%	41.20%	+17.80	7-5
2019-12-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-17	1559.73	1320.90	78.00%	21.47%	+8.61	8-5
2019-12-15	Buffalo Bills	L 10-17	1568.34	1551.15	54.41%	45.06%	-23.48	8-6
2019-12-22	@ New York Jets	L 10-16	1544.86	1368.00	71.38%	28.09%	-28.50	8-7
2019-12-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-28	1516.36	1773.17	17.11%	82.36%	-3.96	8-8
2019-09-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-17	1438.18	1450.77	45.72%	53.76%	+32.81	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 41-17	1470.99	1427.57	53.75%	45.72%	+36.56	2-0
2019-09-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-20	1507.55	1511.81	51.34%	48.13%	+15.70	3-0
2019-10-07	Cleveland Browns	W 31-3	1523.25	1500.43	55.22%	44.26%	+38.24	4-0
2019-10-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-7	1561.49	1579.45	44.95%	54.52%	+32.06	5-0
2019-10-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 9-0	1593.55	1346.40	78.80%	20.68%	+10.15	6-0
2019-10-27	Carolina Panthers	W 51-13	1603.70	1543.94	60.38%	39.09%	+39.37	7-0
2019-10-31	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 28-25	1643.07	1365.54	81.52%	17.96%	+5.09	8-0
2019-11-11	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1648.16	1577.49	61.86%	37.61%	-17.47	8-1
2019-11-17	Arizona Cardinals	W 36-26	1630.69	1349.38	84.27%	15.20%	+7.87	9-1
2019-11-24	Green Bay Packers	W 37-8	1638.56	1574.38	60.98%	38.49%	+33.86	10-1
2019-12-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1672.42	1733.58	38.90%	60.57%	-11.00	10-2
2019-12-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 48-46	1661.42	1652.76	48.76%	50.71%	+11.70	11-2
2019-12-15	Atlanta Falcons	L 22-29	1673.12	1470.23	77.50%	21.97%	-33.43	11-3
2019-12-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-31	1639.69	1563.79	62.57%	36.91%	+10.44	12-3
2019-12-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 26-21	1650.13	1559.83	60.34%	39.14%	+14.30	13-3
2019-09-08	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-20	1553.08	1432.67	68.31%	31.16%	+5.09	1-0
2019-09-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-26	1558.17	1522.62	52.63%	46.84%	+10.82	2-0
2019-09-22	New Orleans Saints	L 27-33	1568.99	1580.64	50.28%	49.19%	-20.10	2-1
2019-09-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-10	1548.89	1344.90	74.43%	25.05%	+16.90	3-1
2019-10-03	Los Angeles Rams	W 30-29	1565.79	1587.72	48.80%	50.67%	+8.26	4-1
2019-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns	W 32-28	1574.05	1462.20	63.25%	36.22%	+11.84	5-1
2019-10-20	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-30	1585.89	1569.51	54.30%	45.17%	-33.13	5-2
2019-10-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1552.76	1390.50	69.65%	29.82%	+12.90	6-2
2019-11-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 40-34	1565.66	1431.91	69.93%	29.54%	+11.83	7-2
2019-11-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1577.49	1648.16	37.61%	61.86%	+17.47	8-2
2019-11-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-9	1594.96	1545.47	54.62%	44.85%	+20.71	9-2
2019-12-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 37-30	1615.67	1634.76	49.21%	50.26%	+21.69	10-2
2019-12-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-28	1637.36	1573.60	56.64%	42.83%	-36.94	10-3
2019-12-15	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-24	1600.42	1383.98	75.75%	23.73%	+9.51	11-3
2019-12-22	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-27	1609.93	1356.00	82.12%	17.35%	-50.10	11-4
2019-12-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-26	1559.83	1650.13	39.14%	60.34%	-14.30	11-5
2019-09-08	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-31	1450.77	1438.18	53.76%	45.72%	-32.80	0-1
2019-09-12	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-14	1417.97	1472.79	39.77%	59.70%	+23.84	1-1
2019-09-22	New York Giants	L 31-32	1441.81	1400.40	57.84%	41.64%	-9.43	1-2
2019-09-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 55-40	1432.38	1636.75	21.83%	77.65%	+49.02	2-2
2019-10-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1481.40	1611.21	30.01%	69.46%	-12.98	2-3
2019-10-13	Carolina Panthers	L 26-37	1468.42	1521.07	42.22%	57.25%	-22.87	2-4
2019-10-27	@ Tennessee Titans	L 23-27	1445.55	1486.01	41.77%	57.70%	-13.64	2-5
2019-11-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 34-40	1431.91	1565.66	29.54%	69.93%	-11.83	2-6
2019-11-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-27	1420.08	1360.45	60.36%	39.11%	+11.06	3-6
2019-11-17	New Orleans Saints	L 17-34	1431.14	1615.10	27.27%	72.20%	-18.39	3-7
2019-11-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 35-22	1412.75	1486.66	37.17%	62.30%	+36.62	4-7
2019-12-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-11	1449.37	1399.33	54.70%	44.77%	+30.14	5-7
2019-12-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-35	1479.51	1526.35	45.23%	54.24%	+15.32	6-7
2019-12-15	@ Detroit Lions	W 38-17	1494.83	1390.75	62.21%	37.26%	+27.90	7-7
2019-12-21	Houston Texans	L 20-23	1522.73	1568.74	45.35%	54.13%	-12.82	7-8
2019-12-29	Atlanta Falcons	L 22-28	1509.91	1519.32	50.60%	48.87%	-20.22	7-9
2019-09-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 43-13	1512.05	1477.89	52.43%	47.04%	+42.05	1-0
2019-09-15	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-19	1554.10	1544.13	53.38%	46.09%	-12.31	1-1
2019-09-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-20	1541.79	1431.45	63.05%	36.43%	-37.06	1-2
2019-09-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1504.73	1488.55	49.85%	49.63%	+30.30	2-2
2019-10-06	Buffalo Bills	L 7-14	1535.03	1484.53	59.10%	40.37%	-25.50	2-3
2019-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-16	1509.53	1429.83	58.87%	40.60%	-38.40	2-4
2019-10-20	Los Angeles Chargers	W 23-20	1471.13	1506.94	46.81%	52.67%	+14.88	3-4
2019-10-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-23	1486.01	1445.55	57.70%	41.77%	+13.64	4-4
2019-11-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-30	1499.65	1504.57	46.81%	52.66%	-24.16	4-5
2019-11-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-32	1475.49	1612.26	32.98%	66.49%	+18.78	5-5
2019-11-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 42-20	1494.27	1428.68	61.17%	38.30%	+29.34	6-5
2019-12-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1523.61	1561.32	42.16%	57.32%	+34.97	7-5
2019-12-08	@ Oakland Raiders	W 42-21	1558.58	1385.23	70.97%	28.50%	+21.36	8-5
2019-12-15	Houston Texans	L 21-24	1579.94	1552.98	55.80%	43.67%	-15.76	8-6
2019-12-22	New Orleans Saints	L 28-38	1564.18	1666.54	37.50%	61.98%	-19.37	8-7
2019-12-29	@ Houston Texans	W 35-14	1544.81	1581.56	42.29%	57.18%	+42.73	9-7
2019-09-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-32	1430.30	1562.18	29.77%	69.71%	-10.89	0-1
2019-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1419.41	1551.83	33.54%	65.94%	-17.33	0-2
2019-09-23	Chicago Bears	L 15-31	1402.08	1560.75	30.25%	69.22%	-19.79	0-3
2019-09-29	@ New York Giants	L 3-24	1382.29	1409.83	43.59%	55.88%	-32.61	0-4
2019-10-06	New England Patriots	L 7-33	1349.68	1686.51	13.46%	86.01%	-11.24	0-5
2019-10-13	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-16	1338.44	1316.56	50.67%	48.81%	+7.96	1-5
2019-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-9	1346.40	1593.55	20.68%	78.80%	-10.15	1-6
2019-10-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-19	1336.25	1617.47	15.21%	84.26%	-7.88	1-7
2019-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-24	1328.37	1483.35	27.06%	72.41%	-17.14	1-8
2019-11-17	New York Jets	L 17-34	1311.23	1321.07	50.54%	48.93%	-34.00	1-9
2019-11-24	Detroit Lions	W 19-16	1277.23	1434.59	30.42%	69.06%	+19.50	2-9
2019-12-01	@ Carolina Panthers	W 29-21	1296.73	1449.73	27.29%	72.18%	+33.28	3-9
2019-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 15-20	1330.01	1556.55	19.73%	79.74%	-7.22	3-10
2019-12-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-37	1322.79	1503.34	27.67%	71.81%	-14.30	3-11
2019-12-22	New York Giants	L 35-41	1308.49	1326.42	49.38%	50.10%	-19.74	3-12
2019-12-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-47	1288.75	1545.51	17.12%	82.36%	-15.60	3-13

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2020-01-11	Tennessee Titans	L 12-28	1777.14	1614.20	73.63%	26.37%	-47.80	0-1
2020-01-04	@ Houston Texans	L 19-22	1549.14	1538.83	49.27%	50.73%	-13.85	0-1
2020-01-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-23	1627.22	1570.49	60.24%	39.76%	+14.43	1-0
2020-01-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-37	1641.65	1694.29	40.33%	59.67%	-26.99	1-1
2020-01-04	Buffalo Bills	W 22-19	1538.83	1549.14	50.73%	49.27%	+13.85	1-0
2020-01-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 31-51	1552.68	1710.01	27.00%	73.00%	-19.60	1-1
2020-01-12	Houston Texans	W 51-31	1710.01	1552.68	73.00%	27.00%	+19.60	1-0
2020-01-19	Tennessee Titans	W 35-24	1729.61	1662.00	61.73%	38.27%	+20.60	2-0
2020-02-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-20	1750.21	1721.28	54.15%	45.85%	+24.68	3-0
2020-01-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1617.13	1698.10	36.47%	63.53%	+25.25	1-0
2020-01-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-27	1642.38	1664.43	44.63%	55.37%	-29.86	1-1
2020-01-04	Tennessee Titans	L 13-20	1657.77	1587.54	62.08%	37.92%	-26.66	0-1
2020-01-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-26	1698.10	1617.13	63.53%	36.47%	-25.25	0-1
2020-01-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-17	1560.51	1545.53	54.36%	45.64%	-24.96	0-1
2020-01-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-10	1664.43	1642.38	55.37%	44.63%	+29.86	1-0
2020-01-19	Green Bay Packers	W 37-20	1694.29	1641.65	59.67%	40.33%	+26.99	2-0
2020-02-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-31	1721.28	1750.21	45.85%	54.15%	-24.68	2-1
2020-01-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-9	1545.53	1560.51	45.64%	54.36%	+24.96	1-0
2020-01-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-28	1570.49	1627.22	39.76%	60.24%	-14.43	1-1
2020-01-04	@ New England Patriots	W 20-13	1587.54	1657.77	37.92%	62.08%	+26.66	1-0
2020-01-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 28-12	1614.20	1777.14	26.37%	73.63%	+47.80	2-0
2020-01-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-35	1662.00	1729.61	38.27%	61.73%	-20.61	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2019-12-29	9.16%	Miami Dolphins	1301.98	27	@ New England Patriots	1683.28	24
2	2019-11-10	14.23%	Atlanta Falcons	1377.60	26	@ New Orleans Saints	1672.41	9
3	2019-11-10	16.26%	Miami Dolphins	1310.22	16	@ Indianapolis Colts	1577.70	12
4	2019-12-22	17.35%	Arizona Cardinals	1356.00	27	@ Seattle Seahawks	1609.93	13
5	2019-09-29	21.83%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1432.38	55	@ Los Angeles Rams	1636.75	40
6	2019-12-15	21.97%	Atlanta Falcons	1470.23	29	@ San Francisco 49ers	1673.12	22
7	2019-12-01	22.71%	@ Miami Dolphins	1298.38	37	Philadelphia Eagles	1524.76	31
8	2019-09-29	24.45%	Oakland Raiders	1388.90	31	@ Indianapolis Colts	1567.62	24
9	2019-10-13	24.51%	@ New York Jets	1334.47	24	Dallas Cowboys	1543.51	22
10	2019-10-06	25.76%	@ Oakland Raiders	1421.26	24	Chicago Bears	1603.33	21
11	2019-10-06	26.02%	Denver Broncos	1398.14	20	@ Los Angeles Chargers	1562.45	13
12	2019-12-29	26.14%	New York Jets	1396.51	13	@ Buffalo Bills	1559.69	6
13	2019-12-08	26.17%	Denver Broncos	1434.75	38	@ Houston Texans	1597.69	24
14	2020-01-11 *	26.37%	Tennessee Titans	1614.20	28	@ Baltimore Ravens	1777.14	12
15	2019-12-01	27.29%	Washington Redskins	1296.73	29	@ Carolina Panthers	1449.73	21
16	2019-12-15	27.82%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1312.29	38	Cleveland Browns	1491.53	24
17	2019-12-29	28.04%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1338.10	38	Indianapolis Colts	1515.44	20
18	2019-12-22	28.06%	Oakland Raiders	1345.61	24	@ Los Angeles Chargers	1491.90	17
19	2019-12-22	28.09%	@ New York Jets	1368.00	16	Pittsburgh Steelers	1544.86	10
20	2019-09-29	29.26%	Cleveland Browns	1456.10	40	@ Baltimore Ravens	1592.18	25
21	2019-12-29	30.15%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1278.51	33	Cleveland Browns	1438.03	23
22	2019-09-05	30.30%	Green Bay Packers	1454.89	10	@ Chicago Bears	1582.35	3
23	2019-11-24	30.42%	@ Washington Redskins	1277.23	19	Detroit Lions	1434.59	16
24	2019-10-06	31.84%	Indianapolis Colts	1535.26	19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1650.20	13
25	2019-12-01	32.24%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1269.26	22	New York Jets	1411.85	6

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2019-11-10	57.31	Atlanta Falcons	26	1377.60	14.23%	@ New Orleans Saints	9	1672.41	85.24%
2	2019-11-24	56.79	@ New York Jets	34	1355.07	36.91%	Oakland Raiders	3	1461.78	62.56%
3	2019-11-17	51.75	Atlanta Falcons	29	1434.91	37.22%	@ Carolina Panthers	3	1508.46	62.25%
4	2019-12-22	50.10	Arizona Cardinals	27	1356.00	17.35%	@ Seattle Seahawks	13	1609.93	82.12%
5	2019-12-29	49.41	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	38	1338.10	28.04%	Indianapolis Colts	20	1515.44	71.44%
6	2019-09-29	49.03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	55	1432.38	21.83%	@ Los Angeles Rams	40	1636.75	77.65%
7	2020-01-11 *	47.80	Tennessee Titans	28	1614.20	26.37%	@ Baltimore Ravens	12	1777.14	73.63%
8	2019-12-15	46.76	@ Dallas Cowboys	44	1524.20	39.68%	Los Angeles Rams	21	1610.55	59.79%
9	2019-12-08	44.71	Denver Broncos	38	1434.75	26.17%	@ Houston Texans	24	1597.69	73.31%
10	2019-09-29	44.33	Cleveland Browns	40	1456.10	29.26%	@ Baltimore Ravens	25	1592.18	70.21%
11	2019-11-03	43.92	@ Baltimore Ravens	37	1602.64	34.14%	New England Patriots	20	1730.37	65.33%
12	2019-12-01	43.84	@ Cincinnati Bengals	22	1269.26	32.24%	New York Jets	6	1411.85	67.23%
13	2019-12-15	43.71	@ Arizona Cardinals	38	1312.29	27.82%	Cleveland Browns	24	1491.53	71.66%
14	2019-12-29	42.73	Tennessee Titans	35	1544.81	42.29%	@ Houston Texans	14	1581.56	57.18%
15	2019-10-20	42.18	@ Dallas Cowboys	37	1526.23	49.73%	Philadelphia Eagles	10	1541.73	49.75%
16	2019-09-08	42.06	Tennessee Titans	43	1512.05	52.43%	@ Cleveland Browns	13	1477.89	47.04%
17	2019-11-14	40.42	@ Cleveland Browns	21	1439.41	33.20%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1574.42	66.27%
18	2019-10-27	39.37	@ San Francisco 49ers	51	1603.70	60.38%	Carolina Panthers	13	1543.94	39.09%
19	2019-10-13	38.40	@ Denver Broncos	16	1429.83	40.60%	Tennessee Titans	0	1509.53	58.87%
20	2019-10-07	38.24	@ San Francisco 49ers	31	1523.25	55.22%	Cleveland Browns	3	1500.43	44.26%
21	2019-10-27	38.12	Philadelphia Eagles	31	1499.55	44.39%	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1521.47	55.09%
22	2019-11-03	38.09	@ Los Angeles Chargers	26	1502.05	39.16%	Green Bay Packers	11	1592.19	60.32%
23	2019-11-25	37.93	Baltimore Ravens	45	1695.65	62.30%	@ Los Angeles Rams	6	1590.92	37.18%
24	2019-09-19	37.06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	20	1431.45	36.43%	Tennessee Titans	7	1541.79	63.05%
25	2019-12-08	36.95	@ Los Angeles Rams	28	1573.60	42.83%	Seattle Seahawks	12	1637.36	56.64%