2017 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Philadelphia Eagles

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1960

Runner-Up

New England Patriots

10th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2016

Biggest Overachiever

Minnesota Vikings

3.45 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.55 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cleveland Browns

3.99 wins below expected

0 wins · 3.99 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	13	3	.812	—	458	296	+162	11.28	+1.72
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	9	7	.562	4	302	359	-57	7.61	+1.39
3	Miami Dolphins	6	10	.375	7	281	393	-112	6.75	-0.75
4	New York Jets	5	11	.312	8	298	382	-84	6.33	-1.33

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	13	3	.812	—	406	308	+98	10.47	+2.53
2	Baltimore Ravens	9	7	.562	4	395	303	+92	9.19	-0.19
3	Cincinnati Bengals	7	9	.438	6	290	349	-59	7.24	-0.24
4	Cleveland Browns	0	16	.000	13	234	410	-176	3.99	-3.99

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Jacksonville Jaguars Division	10	6	.625	—	417	268	+149	9.80	+0.20
2	Tennessee Titans Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	334	356	-22	8.17	+0.83
3	Houston Texans	4	12	.250	6	338	436	-98	7.29	-3.29
4	Indianapolis Colts	4	12	.250	6	263	404	-141	6.45	-2.45

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	10	6	.625	—	415	339	+76	10.46	-0.46
2	Los Angeles Chargers	9	7	.562	1	355	272	+83	7.83	+1.17
3	Oakland Raiders	6	10	.375	4	301	373	-72	7.26	-1.26
4	Denver Broncos	5	11	.312	5	289	382	-93	7.38	-2.38

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	13	3	.812	—	457	295	+162	10.24	+2.76
2	Dallas Cowboys	9	7	.562	4	354	332	+22	8.64	+0.36
3	Washington Redskins	7	9	.438	6	342	388	-46	7.61	-0.61
4	New York Giants	3	13	.188	10	246	388	-142	5.81	-2.81

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	13	3	.812	—	382	252	+130	9.55	+3.45
2	Detroit Lions	9	7	.562	4	410	376	+34	8.67	+0.33
3	Green Bay Packers	7	9	.438	6	320	384	-64	8.26	-1.26
4	Chicago Bears	5	11	.312	8	264	320	-56	5.88	-0.88

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	11	5	.688	—	363	327	+36	8.56	+2.44
2	New Orleans Saints Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	448	326	+122	9.53	+1.47
3	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	353	315	+38	9.05	+0.95
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	6	335	382	-47	6.62	-1.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	11	5	.688	—	478	329	+149	8.50	+2.50
2	Seattle Seahawks	9	7	.562	2	366	332	+34	9.32	-0.32
3	Arizona Cardinals	8	8	.500	3	295	361	-66	7.42	+0.58
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	10	.375	5	331	383	-52	4.84	+1.16

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Tennessee Titans 22

Kansas City Chiefs 21

Jan 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Buffalo Bills 3

Jan 7

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 35

Tennessee Titans 14

Jan 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 42

Jan 14

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Jan 21

NFC

Wild Card Round

Atlanta Falcons 26

Los Angeles Rams 13

Jan 6

New Orleans Saints 31

Carolina Panthers 26

Jan 7

Divisional Round

Philadelphia Eagles 15

Atlanta Falcons 10

Jan 13

Minnesota Vikings 29

New Orleans Saints 24

Jan 14

Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles 38

Minnesota Vikings 7

Jan 21

Super Bowl

Philadelphia Eagles 41

New England Patriots 33

Feb 4

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1722	13	11.28	+1.72	90.37%	5	8	10	11	12	14	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1682	13	9.55	+3.45	98.79%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1679	13	10.24	+2.76	97.22%	4	7	9	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1663	13	10.47	+2.53	96.14%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1640	11	9.53	+1.47	85.48%	3	6	8	10	11	12	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1628	10	9.05	+0.95	77.14%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1600	10	10.46	-0.46	50.63%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1598	11	8.50	+2.50	94.53%	2	5	7	8	10	12	15
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1584	9	7.83	+1.17	81.32%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1575	10	9.80	+0.20	64.59%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1575	11	8.56	+2.44	94.10%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1573	9	9.19	-0.19	56.98%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1557	9	9.32	-0.32	53.97%	3	6	8	9	11	12	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1536	9	8.64	+0.36	67.00%	2	5	7	9	10	12	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1530	9	8.67	+0.33	66.69%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1491	9	7.61	+1.39	84.35%	0	5	6	8	9	11	14
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1476	9	8.17	+0.83	75.64%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1469	6	4.84	+1.16	83.13%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1456	8	7.42	+0.58	71.67%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1447	7	7.24	-0.24	56.44%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1441	7	7.61	-0.61	48.43%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1433	5	6.62	-1.62	28.40%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1424	7	8.26	-1.26	35.40%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1423	5	5.88	-0.88	43.05%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1417	6	7.26	-1.26	34.83%	1	4	6	7	9	10	13
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1397	5	7.38	-2.38	16.55%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1390	6	6.75	-0.75	45.75%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1379	5	6.33	-1.33	34.51%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1336	4	7.29	-3.29	6.26%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1336	4	6.45	-2.45	14.69%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1329	3	5.81	-2.81	10.52%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1216	0	3.99	-3.99	0.92%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—
New York Jets	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	0-4 (0.8 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.6 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Chargers	Raiders
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	—
Los Angeles Chargers	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Oakland Raiders	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	4-0 (2.0 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	4-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	3-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Minnesota Vikings	13	9.55	+3.45
2	Philadelphia Eagles	13	10.24	+2.76
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	10.47	+2.53
4	Los Angeles Rams	11	8.50	+2.50
5	Carolina Panthers	11	8.56	+2.44

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns	0	3.99	-3.99
2	Houston Texans	4	7.29	-3.29
3	New York Giants	3	5.81	-2.81
4	Indianapolis Colts	4	6.45	-2.45
5	Denver Broncos	5	7.38	-2.38

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Francisco 49ers	5	Dec 3 – Dec 31	1 in 997
2	New Orleans Saints	8	Sep 24 – Nov 19	1 in 105
3	Minnesota Vikings	8	Oct 9 – Dec 3	1 in 99
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	Oct 15 – Dec 10	1 in 61
5	Philadelphia Eagles	9	Sep 24 – Nov 26	1 in 47

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	8	Oct 15 – Dec 3	1 in 143
2	Cleveland Browns	16	Sep 10 – Dec 31	1 in 121
3	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Nov 5 – Dec 3	1 in 89
4	San Francisco 49ers	9	Sep 10 – Nov 5	1 in 35
5	Houston Texans	6	Nov 27 – Dec 31	1 in 29

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	86.50%	10.93%	2.15%	0.42%
Buffalo Bills	7.65%	42.75%	29.83%	19.77%
Miami Dolphins	3.46%	26.47%	35.78%	34.29%
New York Jets	2.39%	19.85%	32.24%	45.52%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.11%	28.19%	8.23%	0.47%
Baltimore Ravens	29.66%	47.77%	20.78%	1.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.02%	22.32%	59.44%	11.22%
Cleveland Browns	0.21%	1.72%	11.55%	86.52%

Team	1	2	3	4
Jacksonville Jaguars	60.43%	24.64%	10.69%	4.24%
Tennessee Titans	22.52%	34.08%	26.51%	16.89%
Houston Texans	11.48%	25.84%	34.50%	28.18%
Indianapolis Colts	5.57%	15.44%	28.30%	50.69%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	68.71%	20.08%	8.24%	2.97%
Los Angeles Chargers	13.48%	30.01%	30.76%	25.75%
Denver Broncos	9.15%	26.52%	30.74%	33.59%
Oakland Raiders	8.66%	23.39%	30.26%	37.69%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	62.30%	25.40%	9.83%	2.47%
Dallas Cowboys	23.16%	38.29%	27.84%	10.71%
Washington Redskins	12.29%	27.40%	39.87%	20.44%
New York Giants	2.25%	8.91%	22.46%	66.38%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	48.13%	29.16%	16.87%	5.84%
Detroit Lions	28.08%	32.26%	27.99%	11.67%
Green Bay Packers	21.00%	29.98%	33.85%	15.17%
Chicago Bears	2.79%	8.60%	21.29%	67.32%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	41.87%	30.66%	19.68%	7.79%
Atlanta Falcons	31.26%	30.34%	25.95%	12.45%
Carolina Panthers	22.56%	28.72%	31.99%	16.73%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.31%	10.28%	22.38%	63.03%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	52.11%	30.64%	14.38%	2.87%
Los Angeles Rams	31.86%	36.95%	25.16%	6.03%
Arizona Cardinals	14.72%	27.14%	42.38%	15.76%
San Francisco 49ers	1.31%	5.27%	18.08%	75.34%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	35.13%	22.46%	15.64%	9.42%	5.68%	3.76%	2.72%	2.02%	1.07%	0.94%	0.51%	0.26%	0.21%	0.16%	0.02%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.84%	18.70%	14.36%	12.91%	9.76%	6.84%	5.38%	3.98%	2.94%	2.01%	1.35%	1.00%	0.50%	0.21%	0.14%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	19.71%	18.42%	15.98%	12.17%	8.63%	6.47%	5.14%	3.71%	3.02%	2.24%	1.60%	1.31%	0.82%	0.43%	0.27%	0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.84%	13.45%	15.23%	14.63%	10.41%	8.08%	7.22%	5.52%	4.25%	3.20%	2.54%	2.23%	1.61%	1.12%	0.49%	0.18%
Baltimore Ravens	6.41%	8.47%	9.70%	10.93%	12.19%	10.60%	9.70%	8.51%	6.52%	5.01%	4.09%	3.40%	2.22%	1.29%	0.67%	0.29%
Tennessee Titans	2.12%	4.43%	6.11%	7.37%	8.70%	9.18%	8.79%	8.85%	7.97%	7.58%	7.28%	6.13%	5.31%	5.03%	3.31%	1.84%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.51%	3.11%	4.27%	5.98%	6.75%	8.25%	8.15%	8.84%	8.54%	8.39%	8.58%	7.31%	7.37%	6.28%	4.83%	1.84%
Buffalo Bills	1.20%	1.88%	3.40%	4.74%	6.64%	8.52%	9.29%	9.57%	8.89%	8.13%	7.70%	8.16%	7.03%	6.78%	5.73%	2.34%
Denver Broncos	0.89%	1.88%	2.96%	4.38%	5.66%	7.11%	7.67%	7.70%	8.31%	8.53%	8.65%	8.18%	8.98%	8.02%	7.19%	3.89%
Houston Texans	0.83%	1.90%	3.02%	3.99%	5.34%	5.93%	7.62%	7.48%	8.51%	9.26%	9.61%	9.43%	8.72%	8.54%	6.71%	3.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.77%	1.62%	2.75%	3.37%	5.31%	6.13%	6.66%	7.32%	9.17%	10.70%	10.04%	10.62%	9.00%	6.84%	5.73%	3.97%
Oakland Raiders	0.78%	1.86%	2.80%	3.86%	5.12%	6.36%	6.90%	7.69%	8.27%	8.29%	8.91%	9.02%	9.62%	9.01%	7.77%	3.74%
Miami Dolphins	0.43%	0.71%	1.49%	2.51%	4.31%	4.91%	5.36%	7.00%	7.80%	9.08%	9.41%	9.75%	10.35%	10.35%	10.48%	6.06%
Indianapolis Colts	0.31%	0.53%	1.28%	2.04%	2.73%	3.69%	4.60%	5.59%	6.45%	7.34%	8.99%	10.31%	11.31%	13.43%	12.57%	8.83%
New York Jets	0.22%	0.57%	0.97%	1.63%	2.59%	3.85%	4.35%	5.54%	6.93%	7.79%	8.50%	9.33%	11.33%	12.24%	13.78%	10.38%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.07%	0.18%	0.32%	0.45%	0.68%	1.36%	1.51%	2.24%	3.56%	5.62%	10.27%	20.31%	53.37%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Philadelphia Eagles	20.75%	16.68%	13.56%	10.74%	8.22%	7.12%	5.86%	4.49%	3.62%	3.09%	2.21%	1.60%	1.02%	0.54%	0.38%	0.12%
Minnesota Vikings	12.76%	12.50%	11.22%	11.23%	8.27%	8.70%	6.92%	6.12%	5.42%	4.73%	3.78%	3.07%	2.10%	1.93%	0.81%	0.44%
New Orleans Saints	12.92%	12.30%	10.52%	10.05%	8.81%	8.47%	7.32%	6.47%	5.63%	4.93%	4.22%	3.03%	2.51%	1.57%	0.86%	0.39%
Seattle Seahawks	10.59%	10.44%	11.91%	10.57%	9.32%	8.28%	7.72%	7.37%	5.99%	4.52%	4.15%	3.68%	2.40%	1.40%	1.08%	0.58%
Atlanta Falcons	9.71%	8.90%	8.36%	8.50%	8.43%	8.07%	7.98%	7.59%	6.75%	6.40%	5.43%	4.66%	3.88%	2.86%	1.77%	0.71%
Detroit Lions	6.37%	7.19%	7.20%	8.00%	8.20%	8.58%	7.90%	8.01%	7.68%	6.95%	6.45%	5.58%	4.65%	3.34%	2.34%	1.56%
Dallas Cowboys	6.05%	6.48%	7.38%	7.43%	8.63%	8.29%	8.43%	7.98%	7.36%	7.28%	6.76%	5.83%	4.89%	3.47%	2.56%	1.18%
Los Angeles Rams	4.94%	5.88%	7.85%	8.12%	8.14%	8.06%	8.46%	8.17%	8.16%	7.62%	6.69%	6.13%	4.81%	3.49%	2.24%	1.24%
Carolina Panthers	6.13%	6.53%	6.24%	6.82%	8.55%	7.54%	8.01%	7.87%	8.16%	7.62%	7.45%	5.91%	5.20%	3.93%	2.74%	1.30%
Green Bay Packers	4.58%	5.41%	5.76%	6.02%	6.96%	7.67%	8.10%	7.60%	8.58%	7.98%	7.96%	7.45%	5.98%	4.87%	3.62%	1.46%
Washington Redskins	2.20%	2.95%	3.78%	4.31%	5.64%	5.67%	6.89%	7.96%	8.18%	9.11%	9.82%	9.27%	7.86%	7.32%	5.42%	3.62%
Arizona Cardinals	1.70%	2.59%	3.37%	3.93%	4.81%	5.85%	6.94%	7.82%	7.75%	8.86%	9.80%	10.22%	8.33%	6.90%	6.29%	4.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.70%	1.18%	1.39%	1.87%	2.50%	3.18%	3.66%	4.84%	6.05%	7.42%	7.68%	10.19%	14.23%	13.29%	12.40%	9.42%
Chicago Bears	0.27%	0.45%	0.62%	1.03%	1.52%	1.86%	2.51%	3.11%	4.43%	5.28%	6.65%	8.61%	11.99%	16.06%	19.05%	16.56%
New York Giants	0.28%	0.40%	0.64%	1.04%	1.50%	1.96%	2.25%	3.16%	4.15%	5.18%	6.96%	8.46%	11.32%	15.52%	18.26%	18.92%
San Francisco 49ers	0.05%	0.12%	0.20%	0.34%	0.50%	0.70%	1.05%	1.44%	2.09%	3.03%	3.99%	6.31%	8.83%	13.51%	20.18%	37.66%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	23.49%	15.34%	11.72%	9.04%	7.88%	6.07%	4.39%	4.14%	2.90%	2.61%	2.23%	1.93%	1.50%	1.21%	1.06%	1.11%	0.59%	0.51%	0.50%	0.47%	0.33%	0.27%	0.22%	0.17%	0.07%	0.11%	0.06%	0.07%	0.01%	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.61%	9.32%	10.34%	7.70%	8.04%	6.20%	6.48%	5.36%	4.75%	4.63%	3.53%	3.06%	2.61%	2.60%	2.11%	2.08%	1.49%	1.41%	1.21%	1.01%	0.72%	0.65%	0.50%	0.49%	0.34%	0.24%	0.16%	0.16%	0.08%	0.05%	0.03%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.03%	9.70%	9.30%	8.19%	7.69%	6.97%	5.67%	5.49%	4.49%	3.81%	3.56%	2.98%	2.63%	2.73%	1.75%	1.99%	1.81%	1.48%	1.24%	0.96%	1.01%	0.71%	0.60%	0.49%	0.51%	0.48%	0.25%	0.18%	0.12%	0.12%	0.03%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	8.85%	10.27%	7.92%	8.87%	7.20%	7.05%	5.53%	6.12%	4.40%	4.32%	3.72%	3.31%	3.25%	2.95%	2.19%	2.08%	2.23%	1.69%	1.61%	1.20%	1.13%	0.95%	0.71%	0.79%	0.45%	0.39%	0.23%	0.21%	0.19%	0.12%	0.07%	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.05%	5.71%	7.16%	6.69%	6.95%	7.24%	6.70%	6.28%	4.97%	5.11%	4.05%	4.31%	3.35%	3.63%	2.89%	2.78%	2.08%	2.07%	1.67%	1.80%	1.36%	1.35%	1.39%	0.92%	0.96%	0.74%	0.60%	0.47%	0.31%	0.22%	0.12%	0.07%
Minnesota Vikings	5.02%	6.50%	6.14%	6.34%	5.91%	5.95%	5.80%	5.50%	4.83%	4.22%	4.67%	4.23%	4.11%	3.44%	3.00%	2.77%	2.97%	2.50%	2.76%	2.21%	1.88%	1.51%	1.68%	1.27%	1.27%	0.95%	0.84%	0.62%	0.50%	0.29%	0.24%	0.08%
New Orleans Saints	5.31%	6.40%	5.92%	6.31%	5.80%	5.47%	5.22%	5.26%	4.92%	4.36%	4.44%	4.42%	3.93%	3.75%	3.31%	2.82%	2.84%	3.18%	2.36%	2.24%	2.10%	1.92%	1.79%	1.24%	1.10%	1.10%	0.71%	0.70%	0.34%	0.43%	0.21%	0.10%
Seattle Seahawks	3.97%	5.48%	5.11%	5.87%	5.48%	6.27%	5.22%	5.42%	4.72%	4.90%	4.50%	4.30%	4.12%	3.95%	3.67%	3.64%	3.09%	2.76%	2.32%	2.22%	2.27%	1.97%	1.74%	1.67%	1.27%	1.09%	0.95%	0.57%	0.58%	0.50%	0.26%	0.12%
Baltimore Ravens	3.66%	3.49%	4.61%	4.66%	4.63%	4.99%	5.56%	5.20%	5.51%	5.54%	4.70%	5.07%	4.26%	5.07%	3.83%	4.44%	3.29%	3.47%	2.44%	2.76%	2.22%	2.20%	1.72%	1.82%	1.24%	1.07%	0.83%	0.65%	0.47%	0.33%	0.14%	0.13%
Atlanta Falcons	3.49%	4.84%	4.66%	4.53%	4.57%	4.17%	5.07%	4.31%	4.68%	4.17%	3.99%	4.19%	4.51%	4.02%	4.21%	3.35%	3.47%	3.25%	3.46%	3.04%	2.99%	2.01%	2.64%	1.99%	1.94%	1.55%	1.48%	1.34%	0.78%	0.66%	0.49%	0.15%
Detroit Lions	2.00%	3.30%	3.65%	3.76%	3.70%	4.07%	4.08%	4.25%	4.58%	3.94%	4.52%	4.35%	4.36%	3.72%	4.25%	4.01%	3.72%	3.64%	3.68%	3.57%	3.22%	3.01%	3.07%	2.24%	2.27%	2.24%	1.78%	1.56%	1.24%	0.89%	0.91%	0.42%
Dallas Cowboys	2.13%	2.98%	2.97%	3.95%	3.70%	4.00%	3.78%	4.18%	4.65%	4.35%	4.22%	4.27%	4.60%	3.70%	4.00%	3.79%	4.43%	3.51%	3.52%	3.32%	3.68%	3.16%	3.20%	2.44%	2.42%	2.22%	1.90%	1.63%	1.35%	0.98%	0.65%	0.32%
Los Angeles Rams	1.56%	2.80%	2.51%	3.40%	3.62%	4.03%	4.46%	4.24%	4.28%	4.10%	4.28%	3.96%	4.48%	4.00%	4.43%	4.03%	4.12%	4.03%	3.87%	3.64%	3.49%	3.17%	3.14%	2.86%	2.17%	2.37%	1.87%	1.78%	1.24%	1.04%	0.66%	0.37%
Carolina Panthers	2.06%	2.94%	3.28%	3.39%	3.39%	3.41%	3.99%	3.71%	4.02%	4.53%	4.15%	3.83%	4.28%	4.08%	4.45%	3.58%	4.34%	3.92%	4.14%	3.47%	3.68%	3.25%	3.15%	2.60%	2.62%	2.36%	2.02%	1.65%	1.48%	1.12%	0.77%	0.34%
Green Bay Packers	1.36%	2.36%	2.59%	2.75%	3.04%	3.23%	3.06%	3.38%	3.55%	3.93%	4.02%	3.63%	4.91%	3.72%	4.04%	3.70%	4.36%	4.35%	4.20%	3.91%	3.93%	3.83%	3.42%	3.54%	2.85%	2.80%	2.57%	2.28%	1.75%	1.65%	0.77%	0.52%
Tennessee Titans	1.10%	1.50%	2.34%	2.37%	2.60%	3.22%	3.37%	3.70%	3.83%	4.50%	4.07%	4.50%	3.88%	4.57%	4.07%	4.70%	3.79%	4.17%	3.79%	3.96%	3.45%	3.94%	3.19%	3.18%	2.84%	2.92%	2.65%	2.46%	1.79%	1.69%	1.10%	0.76%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.74%	1.05%	1.45%	1.51%	2.43%	2.19%	2.81%	2.91%	3.44%	3.12%	3.60%	4.35%	3.51%	4.08%	4.34%	4.50%	3.94%	4.18%	4.08%	4.60%	4.09%	4.54%	4.08%	3.78%	3.78%	3.40%	3.36%	3.13%	2.50%	2.48%	1.23%	0.80%
Buffalo Bills	0.55%	0.70%	1.11%	1.07%	1.70%	1.77%	2.27%	2.47%	3.06%	3.34%	3.94%	3.78%	3.93%	4.42%	4.48%	4.78%	4.41%	4.27%	4.29%	4.28%	4.02%	3.97%	3.80%	4.60%	3.80%	3.57%	3.65%	3.51%	2.99%	2.79%	1.60%	1.08%
Washington Redskins	0.67%	1.10%	1.10%	1.67%	1.83%	2.06%	2.40%	2.41%	2.88%	2.80%	3.14%	3.02%	3.87%	3.46%	3.87%	4.13%	4.06%	4.39%	4.57%	4.23%	4.88%	4.72%	4.41%	4.50%	4.13%	4.07%	3.75%	3.21%	3.13%	2.44%	1.91%	1.19%
Arizona Cardinals	0.47%	1.00%	1.07%	1.32%	1.45%	1.98%	1.85%	2.27%	2.41%	2.83%	3.15%	2.91%	3.46%	3.65%	4.06%	4.05%	3.91%	4.20%	4.28%	4.15%	5.06%	4.78%	4.69%	4.47%	4.02%	4.41%	3.75%	3.39%	3.59%	3.04%	2.64%	1.69%
Denver Broncos	0.28%	0.59%	0.92%	1.22%	1.16%	1.84%	2.17%	2.22%	2.48%	2.85%	3.04%	3.72%	3.27%	3.71%	3.95%	3.84%	3.91%	4.16%	4.02%	4.71%	4.37%	4.20%	4.48%	4.26%	4.36%	4.32%	4.47%	4.14%	3.71%	3.37%	2.54%	1.72%
Houston Texans	0.36%	0.47%	0.88%	1.11%	1.37%	1.41%	1.86%	1.80%	2.39%	2.88%	2.77%	3.04%	3.10%	3.70%	3.83%	4.08%	3.62%	4.68%	4.37%	4.68%	4.45%	5.12%	4.68%	4.93%	4.58%	4.68%	4.36%	4.37%	3.58%	3.27%	2.11%	1.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.29%	0.50%	0.75%	0.88%	1.33%	1.28%	1.74%	1.92%	2.51%	2.48%	2.82%	3.23%	3.12%	3.39%	3.44%	3.51%	4.11%	4.82%	4.43%	5.40%	4.67%	5.40%	4.60%	5.31%	4.56%	5.07%	3.96%	3.72%	3.45%	3.08%	2.40%	1.83%
Oakland Raiders	0.35%	0.50%	0.83%	1.09%	1.36%	1.58%	1.63%	1.93%	2.40%	2.54%	2.95%	3.08%	3.24%	3.64%	3.52%	3.82%	4.13%	4.03%	3.89%	4.33%	4.12%	5.08%	4.58%	4.60%	5.08%	4.57%	4.39%	4.47%	4.20%	3.75%	2.57%	1.75%
Miami Dolphins	0.17%	0.22%	0.41%	0.42%	0.70%	0.85%	1.20%	1.35%	1.74%	2.04%	2.30%	2.23%	2.48%	2.69%	3.36%	3.59%	3.55%	3.71%	4.18%	4.55%	4.41%	4.57%	4.93%	5.43%	5.41%	5.57%	5.05%	5.47%	4.90%	5.54%	4.17%	2.81%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.12%	0.28%	0.53%	0.68%	0.78%	0.65%	0.99%	1.01%	1.41%	1.28%	1.74%	1.79%	2.20%	2.07%	2.55%	2.49%	3.32%	3.15%	3.94%	3.76%	3.90%	4.10%	5.48%	5.57%	6.47%	5.98%	6.33%	6.18%	6.17%	6.10%	5.18%	3.80%
Indianapolis Colts	0.09%	0.22%	0.24%	0.37%	0.55%	0.62%	0.86%	1.02%	1.25%	1.43%	1.62%	1.92%	2.15%	2.32%	2.42%	2.91%	3.19%	2.79%	3.77%	3.85%	4.27%	4.76%	5.08%	5.46%	5.62%	5.78%	6.43%	6.51%	6.62%	6.19%	5.30%	4.39%
New York Jets	0.09%	0.14%	0.23%	0.27%	0.45%	0.58%	0.87%	0.79%	1.15%	1.41%	1.66%	2.05%	1.72%	2.31%	2.49%	3.04%	2.93%	3.36%	3.52%	4.04%	4.25%	4.59%	3.88%	5.21%	5.33%	6.00%	6.05%	6.51%	6.58%	7.20%	5.98%	5.32%
Chicago Bears	0.06%	0.11%	0.13%	0.27%	0.24%	0.38%	0.45%	0.57%	0.67%	0.87%	1.00%	1.00%	1.30%	1.38%	1.79%	1.55%	2.41%	2.37%	2.77%	2.79%	3.18%	3.67%	4.44%	4.65%	5.98%	6.03%	7.76%	7.80%	9.40%	9.03%	9.63%	6.32%
New York Giants	0.06%	0.14%	0.08%	0.27%	0.34%	0.34%	0.41%	0.65%	0.78%	0.69%	1.03%	1.06%	1.22%	1.27%	1.63%	1.70%	2.30%	2.27%	2.90%	2.36%	3.71%	3.59%	3.92%	4.74%	5.76%	5.85%	6.86%	7.80%	9.14%	9.02%	9.77%	8.34%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.08%	0.12%	0.10%	0.11%	0.30%	0.32%	0.45%	0.31%	0.50%	0.56%	0.80%	0.71%	1.07%	1.13%	1.45%	1.66%	2.37%	1.82%	3.25%	3.11%	4.57%	4.56%	6.42%	7.41%	9.95%	10.62%	17.64%	18.48%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	0.01%	—	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.10%	0.14%	0.17%	0.15%	0.21%	0.21%	0.43%	0.52%	0.55%	0.77%	0.83%	0.79%	1.19%	1.54%	1.67%	2.23%	3.51%	4.51%	6.05%	7.86%	11.99%	18.88%	35.56%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	35.13%	23.19%	16.67%	11.51%	3.71%	2.64%	7.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.84%	18.42%	13.77%	11.08%	11.86%	7.48%	17.55%
Kansas City Chiefs	19.71%	18.77%	16.84%	13.39%	7.30%	5.74%	18.25%
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.84%	13.66%	17.00%	19.93%	6.16%	6.35%	27.06%
Baltimore Ravens	6.41%	8.02%	8.10%	7.13%	15.96%	12.10%	42.28%
Tennessee Titans	2.12%	4.37%	6.47%	9.56%	7.28%	8.63%	61.57%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.51%	2.99%	4.12%	4.86%	7.27%	8.59%	70.66%
Buffalo Bills	1.20%	1.68%	2.20%	2.57%	8.54%	9.69%	74.12%
Denver Broncos	0.89%	1.86%	3.04%	3.36%	6.10%	7.31%	77.44%
Houston Texans	0.83%	1.96%	3.28%	5.41%	4.26%	5.57%	78.69%
Oakland Raiders	0.78%	1.83%	2.99%	3.06%	5.44%	6.43%	79.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.77%	1.55%	2.26%	2.44%	5.99%	6.45%	80.54%
Miami Dolphins	0.43%	0.61%	1.01%	1.41%	5.27%	5.28%	85.99%
Indianapolis Colts	0.31%	0.61%	1.40%	3.25%	1.96%	3.17%	89.30%
New York Jets	0.22%	0.47%	0.81%	0.89%	2.79%	4.30%	90.52%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.15%	0.11%	0.27%	99.41%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles	20.75%	17.05%	13.76%	10.74%	7.92%	6.93%	22.85%
New Orleans Saints	12.92%	11.77%	9.54%	7.64%	11.20%	9.27%	37.66%
Minnesota Vikings	12.76%	12.53%	12.06%	10.78%	8.59%	7.96%	35.32%
Seattle Seahawks	10.59%	11.01%	13.52%	16.99%	5.53%	6.29%	36.07%
Atlanta Falcons	9.71%	8.60%	7.32%	5.63%	10.86%	8.68%	49.20%
Detroit Lions	6.37%	7.10%	7.24%	7.37%	8.45%	8.80%	54.67%
Carolina Panthers	6.13%	6.30%	5.51%	4.62%	9.38%	8.76%	59.30%
Dallas Cowboys	6.05%	6.20%	5.87%	5.04%	10.83%	9.51%	56.50%
Los Angeles Rams	4.94%	6.18%	9.02%	11.72%	6.11%	6.80%	55.23%
Green Bay Packers	4.58%	5.31%	5.82%	5.29%	7.34%	7.62%	64.04%
Washington Redskins	2.20%	3.09%	3.42%	3.58%	5.33%	6.24%	76.14%
Arizona Cardinals	1.70%	2.68%	3.86%	6.48%	3.27%	5.25%	76.76%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.70%	1.15%	1.31%	1.15%	2.55%	3.36%	89.78%
New York Giants	0.28%	0.48%	0.62%	0.87%	1.24%	2.18%	94.33%
Chicago Bears	0.27%	0.44%	0.78%	1.30%	1.17%	1.79%	94.25%
San Francisco 49ers	0.05%	0.11%	0.35%	0.80%	0.23%	0.56%	97.90%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	85.37%	85.37%	60.52%	40.26%	24.23%
Philadelphia Eagles	64.02%	64.02%	40.07%	23.71%	12.37%
Pittsburgh Steelers	68.63%	68.63%	40.49%	21.57%	11.36%
Minnesota Vikings	51.82%	51.82%	32.19%	18.53%	9.98%
New Orleans Saints	47.30%	47.30%	27.13%	14.60%	6.94%
Kansas City Chiefs	65.86%	65.86%	33.33%	14.73%	6.60%
Atlanta Falcons	36.38%	36.38%	19.24%	10.38%	5.32%
Jacksonville Jaguars	53.63%	53.63%	23.81%	9.56%	4.15%
Los Angeles Rams	33.65%	30.09%	14.95%	7.35%	3.65%
Seattle Seahawks	43.73%	43.73%	18.53%	7.40%	2.99%
Baltimore Ravens	43.29%	35.89%	15.42%	6.11%	2.76%
Carolina Panthers	28.27%	26.04%	12.55%	5.44%	2.38%
Dallas Cowboys	31.25%	25.44%	10.55%	4.36%	1.70%
Detroit Lions	31.86%	26.87%	10.82%	4.18%	1.48%
Los Angeles Chargers	24.84%	17.77%	7.50%	2.92%	1.33%
Tennessee Titans	31.94%	19.16%	5.80%	1.49%	0.54%
Buffalo Bills	23.00%	11.45%	3.82%	1.30%	0.49%
Washington Redskins	18.57%	10.81%	3.18%	0.88%	0.38%
Arizona Cardinals	18.86%	10.94%	3.34%	1.02%	0.33%
Green Bay Packers	26.07%	17.64%	5.02%	1.35%	0.31%
Cincinnati Bengals	17.14%	8.20%	2.25%	0.61%	0.19%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.37%	4.36%	1.31%	0.45%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders	17.92%	8.05%	1.90%	0.47%	0.10%
Denver Broncos	19.81%	8.52%	1.94%	0.34%	0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	1.94%	0.97%	0.31%	0.13%	0.05%
Miami Dolphins	12.97%	4.25%	1.02%	0.23%	0.04%
Houston Texans	18.52%	7.00%	1.06%	0.18%	0.04%
New York Giants	4.91%	1.64%	0.27%	0.06%	0.03%
New York Jets	8.79%	2.86%	0.61%	0.14%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	5.04%	1.95%	0.54%	0.16%	0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	9.78%	3.26%	0.52%	0.09%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns	0.57%	0.10%	0.01%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.44%	1.00%	0.03%	1.55%	1.78%	0.97%	3.12%	2.21%	1.08%	0.90%	1.08%	0.52%	1.19%	2.34%	2.25%
Buffalo Bills	0.88%		0.34%	0.06%	0.51%	0.66%	0.35%	1.24%	1.07%	0.50%	0.08%	0.62%	0.05%	0.53%	0.70%	0.98%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.40%	0.24%		0.01%	0.45%	0.56%	0.29%	0.74%	0.65%	0.26%	0.23%	0.24%	0.17%	0.43%	0.55%	0.66%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.03%							0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.49%	0.40%	0.38%	0.01%		0.42%	0.26%	0.70%	0.76%	0.22%	0.38%	0.35%	0.19%	0.19%	0.46%	0.56%
Houston Texans	0.41%	0.35%	0.20%	0.01%	0.35%		0.13%	0.53%	0.36%	0.20%	0.31%	0.11%	0.29%	0.35%	0.37%	0.24%
Indianapolis Colts	0.29%	0.11%	0.18%	0.03%	0.16%	0.17%		0.22%	0.20%	0.12%	0.17%	0.09%	0.10%	0.22%	0.15%	0.13%
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.05%	2.48%	2.23%	0.05%	2.50%	1.90%	1.12%		2.10%	1.99%	1.65%	0.84%	1.12%	2.28%	2.60%	3.22%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.36%	2.53%	1.77%	0.07%	2.24%	2.05%	0.88%	2.39%		1.83%	1.52%	0.89%	1.05%	2.03%	1.92%	2.85%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.44%	0.89%	0.73%	0.03%	0.64%	0.90%	0.74%	1.70%	1.78%		0.61%	0.74%	0.29%	0.50%	0.99%	1.29%
Miami Dolphins	0.25%	0.06%	0.15%	0.02%	0.14%	0.41%	0.17%	0.49%	0.41%	0.14%		0.20%	0.05%	0.16%	0.23%	0.33%
New England Patriots	3.69%	2.34%	1.37%	0.03%	2.24%	1.77%	0.74%	1.93%	1.69%	1.99%	1.63%		1.17%	1.96%	1.95%	2.55%
New York Jets	0.21%	0.07%	0.11%		0.16%	0.20%	0.09%	0.29%	0.21%	0.13%	0.04%	0.11%		0.17%	0.08%	0.30%
Oakland Raiders	0.60%	0.33%	0.33%	0.04%	0.19%	0.49%	0.27%	0.61%	0.66%	0.22%	0.23%	0.24%	0.22%		0.46%	0.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.25%	2.22%	1.66%	0.03%	2.02%	2.32%	1.03%	3.46%	2.53%	2.06%	1.41%	1.36%	0.89%	1.77%		3.36%
Tennessee Titans	1.50%	0.96%	0.80%	0.07%	0.88%	0.65%	0.40%	1.89%	1.26%	0.83%	0.60%	0.61%	0.50%	0.70%	1.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.55%	0.59%	0.07%	0.62%	0.59%	0.72%	0.32%	0.41%	0.56%	0.17%	0.58%	0.01%	0.76%	0.19%	0.42%
Atlanta Falcons	1.27%		0.98%	0.35%	1.64%	1.81%	1.96%	1.48%	1.56%	1.79%	0.30%	1.49%	0.10%	2.15%	0.20%	0.99%
Carolina Panthers	1.02%	0.75%		0.33%	1.34%	1.35%	1.35%	1.20%	1.10%	1.04%	0.22%	1.04%	0.07%	1.68%	0.31%	0.81%
Chicago Bears	0.07%	0.05%	0.06%		0.13%	0.10%	0.10%	0.15%	0.06%	0.09%	0.02%	0.08%	0.02%	0.16%	0.06%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	0.94%	0.88%	1.04%	0.35%		1.27%	1.26%	1.27%	1.10%	1.15%	0.15%	1.12%	0.09%	1.64%	0.35%	0.58%
Detroit Lions	0.81%	1.18%	1.11%	0.20%	1.29%		1.13%	1.01%	1.05%	1.12%	0.37%	1.05%	0.18%	1.48%	0.37%	1.05%
Green Bay Packers	0.66%	0.76%	0.63%	0.17%	0.67%	0.69%		0.51%	0.42%	0.70%	0.16%	0.40%	0.05%	1.01%	0.26%	0.66%
Los Angeles Rams	0.91%	1.53%	1.52%	0.40%	1.94%	1.95%	1.68%		1.38%	1.43%	0.45%	1.51%	0.05%	2.13%	0.62%	1.47%
Minnesota Vikings	1.58%	2.32%	2.23%	0.47%	2.43%	2.74%	2.24%	2.02%		2.48%	0.51%	2.17%	0.16%	2.70%	0.72%	1.76%
New Orleans Saints	1.35%	1.90%	1.71%	0.50%	2.09%	2.40%	2.32%	1.84%	1.94%		0.41%	1.60%	0.11%	2.63%	0.64%	1.17%
New York Giants	0.10%	0.07%	0.05%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.09%	0.08%	0.08%	0.05%		0.06%		0.13%	0.03%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.66%	2.17%	2.18%	0.33%	2.93%	2.29%	2.22%	2.22%	1.88%	2.27%	0.58%		0.15%	2.64%	0.88%	1.82%
San Francisco 49ers	0.05%	0.03%	0.07%	0.02%	0.07%	0.03%	0.10%		0.07%	0.08%	0.03%	0.10%		0.08%	0.03%	0.05%
Seattle Seahawks	1.12%	1.85%	1.98%	0.42%	2.44%	2.42%	2.27%	1.80%	1.32%	1.58%	0.49%	1.44%	0.09%		1.00%	1.91%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.19%	0.08%	0.14%	0.07%	0.15%	0.23%	0.33%	0.19%	0.10%	0.21%	0.08%	0.16%	0.02%	0.30%		0.26%
Washington Redskins	0.57%	0.30%	0.37%	0.11%	0.29%	0.50%	0.55%	0.59%	0.39%	0.49%	0.09%	0.33%	0.03%	0.71%	0.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.55%	0.29%		0.59%	0.57%	0.23%	2.27%	3.22%	0.70%	0.22%	2.70%	0.17%	0.46%	2.55%	0.90%
Buffalo Bills	0.39%		0.07%		0.11%	0.19%	0.02%	0.52%	0.78%	0.10%	0.04%	0.68%	0.01%	0.14%	0.55%	0.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.15%	0.07%			0.08%	0.12%	0.08%	0.34%	0.41%	0.10%	0.03%	0.37%	0.01%	0.06%	0.26%	0.17%
Cleveland Browns															0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.26%	0.07%	0.03%			0.07%		0.30%	0.33%	0.02%	0.04%	0.32%	0.02%		0.32%	0.16%
Houston Texans	0.10%	0.05%	0.02%		0.08%			0.07%	0.21%	0.06%	0.02%	0.20%	0.02%	0.03%	0.18%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.07%	0.03%			0.03%	0.01%		0.06%	0.15%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.81%	0.89%	0.56%	0.01%	0.91%	0.35%	0.12%		5.27%	1.38%	0.30%	4.47%	0.24%	0.88%	4.62%	1.00%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.07%	1.31%	1.34%	0.04%	0.77%	1.08%	0.67%	6.37%		1.30%	0.67%	5.76%	0.36%	0.74%	6.43%	2.42%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.71%	0.17%	0.14%		0.13%	0.22%	0.10%	1.21%	1.24%		0.05%	1.69%	0.07%	0.06%	1.30%	0.41%
Miami Dolphins	0.07%	0.01%	0.03%			0.05%		0.16%	0.21%	0.05%		0.21%		0.03%	0.16%	0.04%
New England Patriots	6.72%	2.49%	2.27%	0.02%	2.20%	1.83%	0.88%	10.46%	11.02%	3.85%	0.92%		0.70%	2.07%	10.27%	4.82%
New York Jets	0.03%		0.03%		0.01%	0.02%		0.10%	0.13%	0.03%		0.06%		0.02%	0.10%	0.08%
Oakland Raiders	0.14%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%		0.09%	0.06%	0.34%	0.32%	0.03%	0.02%	0.35%	0.03%		0.29%	0.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.31%	1.74%	0.97%		1.40%	1.28%	0.58%	7.09%	8.01%	2.35%	0.78%	7.02%	0.55%	1.45%		2.96%
Tennessee Titans	0.64%	0.20%	0.16%	0.01%	0.27%	0.06%		0.53%	1.23%	0.29%	0.13%	0.98%	0.06%	0.19%	1.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.41%	0.22%	0.04%	0.29%	0.24%	0.44%	0.10%	0.29%	0.30%		0.53%	0.01%	0.28%	0.08%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	0.63%		1.17%	0.14%	1.41%	1.67%	1.18%	1.61%	2.43%	2.15%	0.13%	2.99%	0.11%	2.77%	0.07%	0.78%
Carolina Panthers	0.61%	0.86%		0.11%	0.92%	1.10%	0.83%	1.09%	1.49%	1.23%	0.13%	1.73%	0.02%	1.90%	0.09%	0.44%
Chicago Bears	0.06%	0.06%	0.02%		0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.06%	0.01%	0.10%	0.01%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	0.54%	0.93%	0.71%	0.08%		0.95%	0.69%	0.96%	1.32%	1.04%	0.07%	1.31%	0.03%	1.40%	0.14%	0.38%
Detroit Lions	0.44%	1.03%	0.71%	0.03%	1.01%		0.50%	0.88%	0.86%	1.22%	0.15%	1.59%	0.03%	1.57%	0.21%	0.59%
Green Bay Packers	0.37%	0.44%	0.34%	0.03%	0.21%	0.36%		0.40%	0.42%	0.60%	0.07%	0.72%	0.01%	0.74%	0.15%	0.16%
Los Angeles Rams	0.31%	1.58%	1.14%	0.10%	1.16%	1.38%	0.97%		1.80%	1.75%	0.09%	2.51%	0.01%	1.30%	0.24%	0.61%
Minnesota Vikings	1.33%	3.36%	2.56%	0.14%	2.81%	2.08%	1.62%	2.50%		3.96%	0.22%	4.91%	0.12%	4.66%	0.61%	1.31%
New Orleans Saints	1.15%	2.31%	1.73%	0.24%	2.18%	2.36%	1.81%	2.39%	3.63%		0.17%	4.11%	0.10%	3.56%	0.34%	1.05%
New York Giants		0.03%	0.02%	0.01%		0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%		0.02%		0.06%		0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.64%	3.97%	3.10%	0.31%	3.00%	3.64%	2.64%	3.67%	4.86%	4.92%	0.13%		0.18%	6.23%	0.57%	1.21%
San Francisco 49ers		0.03%	0.04%		0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%		0.07%				0.01%		0.06%
Seattle Seahawks	0.37%	1.83%	1.46%	0.15%	1.55%	1.75%	1.56%	1.06%	1.98%	2.46%	0.17%	2.97%	0.01%		0.44%	0.77%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.03%	0.06%	0.01%	0.10%	0.11%	0.08%	0.15%	0.17%	0.06%	0.01%	0.15%	0.01%	0.20%		0.11%
Washington Redskins	0.09%	0.27%	0.21%	0.02%	0.19%	0.34%	0.23%	0.25%	0.34%	0.34%	0.02%	0.35%	0.01%	0.42%	0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.17%	0.02%		0.14%	0.04%	0.01%	0.90%	1.09%	0.41%	0.07%	1.93%	0.07%	0.12%	0.88%	0.26%
Buffalo Bills	0.16%		0.03%		0.02%	0.01%		0.18%	0.26%	0.05%	0.01%	0.22%			0.28%	0.08%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.03%			0.02%	0.01%		0.06%	0.08%	0.04%	0.02%	0.21%	0.01%	0.01%	0.07%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.04%	0.01%						0.11%	0.06%		0.01%	0.04%			0.06%	0.01%
Houston Texans		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%			0.01%	0.01%	0.02%		0.06%			0.05%
Indianapolis Colts					0.01%			0.02%	0.01%			0.03%			0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.89%	0.35%	0.16%		0.12%	0.06%	0.02%		2.03%	0.48%	0.07%	3.01%	0.04%	0.15%	1.89%	0.29%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.47%	0.47%	0.29%		0.16%	0.14%	0.03%	1.99%		0.34%	0.12%	5.28%	0.09%	0.15%	3.60%	0.60%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.23%	0.06%	0.03%		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.49%	0.33%		0.03%	0.88%		0.01%	0.71%	0.10%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%		0.03%					0.02%	0.05%			0.02%			0.07%	0.02%
New England Patriots	4.94%	0.68%	0.76%	0.01%	0.75%	0.33%	0.26%	6.87%	9.72%	2.12%	0.21%		0.13%	0.61%	10.82%	2.05%
New York Jets	0.02%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%		0.02%				0.03%			0.04%
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	0.02%	0.04%					0.08%	0.01%	0.01%		0.12%			0.12%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.33%	0.67%	0.22%		0.34%	0.25%	0.10%	3.36%	4.66%	1.07%	0.23%	8.00%	0.12%	0.35%		0.87%
Tennessee Titans	0.12%	0.05%	0.04%		0.01%			0.14%	0.29%	0.04%	0.02%	0.43%	0.01%	0.03%	0.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.16%	0.07%		0.06%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.16%	0.14%	0.01%	0.22%		0.04%		0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.30%		0.36%	0.03%	0.65%	0.81%	0.39%	0.87%	1.86%	0.91%	0.04%	2.40%	0.02%	1.36%	0.05%	0.33%
Carolina Panthers	0.14%	0.30%		0.03%	0.43%	0.52%	0.29%	0.38%	0.94%	0.37%	0.01%	1.18%	0.01%	0.63%	0.01%	0.20%
Chicago Bears		0.04%	0.03%		0.02%			0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.17%	0.40%	0.45%	0.02%		0.24%	0.12%	0.36%	0.73%	0.63%		0.49%	0.02%	0.58%	0.09%	0.06%
Detroit Lions	0.07%	0.37%	0.32%		0.23%		0.10%	0.40%	0.32%	0.79%	0.02%	0.89%		0.53%	0.05%	0.09%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	0.14%	0.13%		0.09%	0.01%		0.10%	0.11%	0.25%		0.23%	0.01%	0.18%	0.04%	0.04%
Los Angeles Rams	0.05%	0.83%	0.62%	0.04%	0.52%	0.60%	0.34%		1.03%	1.14%	0.02%	1.50%	0.01%	0.43%	0.09%	0.13%
Minnesota Vikings	0.43%	2.06%	1.68%	0.03%	1.42%	0.79%	0.28%	1.57%		2.86%	0.04%	4.39%	0.03%	2.40%	0.11%	0.44%
New Orleans Saints	0.43%	0.80%	0.61%	0.12%	1.26%	1.19%	0.62%	1.36%	2.43%		0.02%	3.43%	0.02%	1.79%	0.05%	0.47%
New York Giants		0.01%		0.01%					0.01%	0.02%		0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.60%	2.87%	2.01%	0.08%	0.88%	1.75%	1.04%	2.11%	4.62%	4.12%	0.02%		0.05%	2.99%	0.26%	0.31%
San Francisco 49ers		0.04%	0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.03%			0.01%				0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.09%	0.69%	0.71%	0.02%	0.52%	0.54%	0.38%	0.35%	1.22%	1.15%	0.02%	1.41%	0.01%		0.09%	0.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.04%	0.02%		0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.02%		0.09%		0.07%
Washington Redskins		0.11%	0.09%		0.03%	0.09%	0.02%	0.06%	0.15%	0.10%		0.10%		0.11%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.01%	0.01%										0.05%	0.02%	0.01%				0.11%				0.01%		0.10%				0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.40%	0.11%			0.04%		0.02%			0.04%	0.03%	0.66%	0.74%	0.14%				1.65%			0.01%	0.06%		1.32%				0.10%
Baltimore Ravens	0.01%	0.33%			0.23%			0.14%		0.11%	0.01%						0.16%		0.35%		0.57%				0.53%			0.28%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills		0.03%			0.04%			0.06%		0.06%	0.02%						0.04%		0.08%		0.06%				0.09%			0.01%
Carolina Panthers			0.16%	0.02%			0.01%					0.01%	0.02%	0.29%	0.39%	0.06%				0.78%				0.05%		0.55%				0.04%
Chicago Bears			0.01%												0.01%					0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.01%				0.01%		0.01%									0.01%		0.03%		0.03%				0.05%			0.03%			0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.13%	0.04%					0.01%			0.01%		0.25%	0.18%	0.06%		0.01%		0.53%				0.01%		0.42%				0.05%
Denver Broncos		0.01%									0.01%										0.03%				0.02%
Detroit Lions			0.10%	0.01%			0.02%		0.02%					0.15%	0.30%	0.04%				0.41%			0.02%			0.36%				0.05%
Green Bay Packers			0.01%	0.01%										0.04%	0.02%	0.01%		0.01%		0.11%						0.10%
Houston Texans					0.02%																0.01%							0.01%
Indianapolis Colts																									0.01%						0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.04%	0.32%			0.35%	0.02%		0.21%		0.24%	0.11%						0.28%		0.79%		0.43%				1.01%			0.28%	0.02%		0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.09%	0.59%			0.37%	0.01%		0.35%		0.39%	0.20%						0.52%		0.95%		0.94%				1.38%		0.02%	0.65%	0.08%		0.06%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.03%	0.17%			0.10%			0.04%		0.06%	0.01%						0.07%		0.22%		0.25%	0.01%			0.29%			0.05%	0.02%		0.01%
Los Angeles Rams			0.24%	0.08%			0.01%						0.01%	0.41%	0.59%	0.19%		0.01%		1.30%			0.01%	0.02%		0.73%				0.05%
Miami Dolphins					0.01%														0.01%		0.01%				0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.67%	0.24%			0.12%		0.07%			0.01%		1.15%	1.76%	0.42%		0.06%		3.22%			0.01%	0.05%		2.05%				0.15%
New England Patriots	0.43%	2.33%			1.33%	0.06%		1.23%		1.32%	0.41%						1.82%		4.26%		3.23%	0.01%			5.23%		0.02%	2.20%	0.09%		0.26%
New Orleans Saints			0.48%	0.03%			0.04%		0.03%			0.04%		0.74%	1.26%	0.16%		0.05%		2.53%				0.07%		1.37%				0.14%
New York Giants																				0.02%						0.01%
New York Jets		0.01%			0.01%																0.01%
Oakland Raiders		0.01%																	0.03%		0.01%				0.04%				0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.93%	0.20%			0.16%		0.09%			0.02%	0.01%	1.32%	2.18%	0.43%		0.05%		4.04%			0.04%	0.08%		2.52%				0.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.08%	1.19%			0.57%	0.02%		0.58%		0.50%	0.25%						0.78%		1.76%		1.97%	0.01%			2.59%		0.02%	0.87%	0.08%		0.09%
San Francisco 49ers															0.02%					0.03%
Seattle Seahawks			0.20%	0.04%			0.02%		0.03%			0.01%		0.28%	0.56%	0.05%				1.11%			0.02%	0.02%		0.59%				0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															0.03%					0.06%						0.02%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%	0.06%			0.03%	0.01%		0.04%		0.02%	0.02%						0.02%		0.07%		0.11%				0.09%		0.02%	0.03%			0.01%
Washington Redskins			0.01%	0.02%										0.07%	0.07%	0.02%				0.12%						0.07%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New England Patriots	100.00%	76.21%	51.31%	28.21%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles	100.00%	60.86%	34.81%	17.30%	Won Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	64.13%	32.11%	16.50%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	67.51%	28.39%	13.75%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New Orleans Saints	67.45%	27.27%	12.45%	5.94%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	74.15%	22.51%	9.18%	4.31%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	47.19%	18.96%	8.16%	3.98%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	52.81%	18.28%	8.38%	3.81%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Jacksonville Jaguars	68.47%	22.16%	7.82%	3.27%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Carolina Panthers	32.55%	10.50%	4.09%	1.77%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Buffalo Bills	31.53%	6.34%	1.84%	0.68%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tennessee Titans	25.85%	5.27%	1.46%	0.48%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills		31.53%
Jacksonville Jaguars	68.47%
Kansas City Chiefs				74.15%
Tennessee Titans			25.85%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons			47.19%
Carolina Panthers				32.55%
Los Angeles Rams	52.81%
New Orleans Saints		67.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills				6.34%
Jacksonville Jaguars					22.16%
Kansas City Chiefs				14.15%	8.36%
New England Patriots	25.19%		36.47%			14.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers		46.31%	15.17%			6.03%
Tennessee Titans				3.30%	1.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons						18.96%
Carolina Panthers				4.93%		5.57%
Los Angeles Rams				18.28%
Minnesota Vikings		10.24%	34.53%		19.36%
New Orleans Saints				12.66%		14.61%
Philadelphia Eagles	28.23%	11.81%			20.82%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Buffalo Bills			0.50%		1.19%	0.15%
Jacksonville Jaguars			2.54%	4.51%		0.77%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.97%	2.20%		2.28%	3.73%
New England Patriots		11.79%	4.61%		33.63%	1.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.30%		5.68%	17.80%		1.61%
Tennessee Titans	0.23%	0.35%		0.31%	0.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons		0.82%		5.12%	2.22%
Carolina Panthers	1.07%		0.68%	1.31%		1.03%
Los Angeles Rams		1.26%			2.59%	4.53%
Minnesota Vikings	6.89%	2.32%			5.63%	17.27%
New Orleans Saints	2.84%		2.49%	3.90%		3.22%
Philadelphia Eagles		2.01%	6.73%	21.69%	4.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Atlanta Falcons		0.07%		0.34%	0.60%			1.86%			1.09%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.09%		0.04%			0.07%	0.23%		0.04%	0.21%
Carolina Panthers		0.01%		0.19%	0.22%			0.77%			0.50%	0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.29%		0.19%			0.27%	0.99%		0.42%	1.11%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.31%		0.24%			0.45%	1.47%		0.48%	1.36%
Los Angeles Rams		0.11%		0.40%	0.28%			1.91%			1.04%	0.07%
Minnesota Vikings		0.29%		1.54%	1.56%			7.72%			5.14%	0.25%
New England Patriots	2.43%		1.31%			2.66%	8.31%		3.81%	9.69%
New Orleans Saints		0.14%		0.59%	0.65%			2.57%			1.86%	0.13%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.54%		1.49%	1.56%			8.27%			5.01%	0.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.03%		0.52%			1.06%	4.48%		1.71%	4.95%
Tennessee Titans	0.03%		0.02%			0.06%	0.13%		0.05%	0.19%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New England Patriots 28.21% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

47.85%

Win Prob

72.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

65.54%

Win Prob

65.39%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

34.35%

Win Prob

53.95%

Philadelphia Eagles 17.30% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

46.39%

Win Prob

59.82%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

62.31%

Win Prob

55.67%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

47.80%

Win Prob

46.05%

Minnesota Vikings 16.50% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

53.84%

Win Prob

65.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

53.78%

Win Prob

44.33%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

46.79%

Win Prob

48.16%

Pittsburgh Steelers 13.75% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

68.60%

Win Prob

67.64%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

62.70%

Win Prob

34.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

36.00%

Win Prob

49.70%

New Orleans Saints 5.94% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.45%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

53.58%

Win Prob

41.24%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

31.33%

Win Prob

40.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

43.27%

Win Prob

40.28%

Kansas City Chiefs 4.31% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

74.15%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

62.86%

Win Prob

27.95%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

40.63%

Win Prob

39.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

34.11%

Win Prob

48.51%

Atlanta Falcons 3.98% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.19%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

62.75%

Win Prob

42.63%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

46.73%

Win Prob

43.36%

Los Angeles Rams 3.81% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.81%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

54.06%

Win Prob

40.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

50.13%

Win Prob

41.79%

Jacksonville Jaguars 3.27% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.47%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.36%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

57.67%

Win Prob

27.67%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

33.94%

Win Prob

42.69%

Carolina Panthers 1.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.55%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

53.05%

Win Prob

32.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

32.03%

Win Prob

36.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

43.50%

Win Prob

37.02%

Buffalo Bills 0.68% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.53%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

20.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

64.67%

Win Prob

26.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

33.82%

Win Prob

44.23%

Tennessee Titans 0.48% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.85%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

62.62%

Win Prob

18.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

39.04%

Win Prob

26.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

39.58%

Win Prob

30.65%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2017-09-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-35	1518.17	1492.62	46.26%	53.51%	-26.08	0-1
2017-09-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-13	1492.09	1452.77	48.23%	51.53%	+14.52	1-1
2017-09-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-28	1506.61	1534.09	53.23%	46.53%	-28.72	1-2
2017-10-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 18-15	1477.89	1364.21	71.91%	27.86%	+7.86	2-2
2017-10-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-34	1485.75	1535.03	35.88%	63.89%	-30.34	2-3
2017-10-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-33	1455.41	1485.69	52.83%	46.94%	+17.07	3-3
2017-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-33	1472.48	1499.19	46.05%	53.72%	-43.04	3-4
2017-11-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-10	1429.44	1303.23	60.57%	39.20%	+20.18	4-4
2017-11-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 16-22	1449.62	1573.07	39.58%	60.19%	-15.78	4-5
2017-11-19	@ Houston Texans	L 21-31	1433.84	1449.91	40.38%	59.39%	-20.78	4-6
2017-11-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-24	1413.06	1590.67	32.42%	67.35%	+18.97	5-6
2017-12-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-32	1432.03	1597.02	34.03%	65.74%	-22.16	5-7
2017-12-10	Tennessee Titans	W 12-7	1409.87	1515.26	42.09%	57.68%	+20.97	6-7
2017-12-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 15-20	1430.84	1430.38	42.69%	57.07%	-15.53	6-8
2017-12-24	New York Giants	W 23-0	1415.31	1321.45	69.56%	30.21%	+23.59	7-8
2017-12-31	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 26-24	1438.90	1573.73	25.48%	74.29%	+17.08	8-8
2017-09-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-17	1574.89	1431.19	62.94%	36.83%	+14.68	1-0
2017-09-17	Green Bay Packers	W 34-23	1589.57	1563.35	60.78%	38.98%	+21.05	2-0
2017-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-26	1610.62	1550.35	51.25%	48.52%	+15.78	3-0
2017-10-01	Buffalo Bills	L 17-23	1626.40	1519.11	71.16%	28.61%	-28.34	3-1
2017-10-15	Miami Dolphins	L 17-20	1598.06	1460.28	74.61%	25.16%	-21.02	3-2
2017-10-22	@ New England Patriots	L 7-23	1577.04	1617.86	37.01%	62.76%	-24.09	3-3
2017-10-29	@ New York Jets	W 25-20	1552.95	1446.70	57.80%	41.97%	+15.27	4-3
2017-11-05	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1568.22	1514.69	50.28%	49.49%	-14.16	4-4
2017-11-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-7	1554.06	1607.14	49.55%	50.21%	+36.53	5-4
2017-11-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-31	1590.59	1588.85	42.87%	56.89%	+16.02	6-4
2017-11-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-20	1606.61	1456.51	75.92%	23.85%	+14.54	7-4
2017-12-03	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-14	1621.15	1642.62	54.09%	45.68%	-19.68	7-5
2017-12-07	New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1601.47	1659.33	48.87%	50.90%	+14.35	8-5
2017-12-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-21	1615.82	1412.97	70.45%	29.32%	+8.26	9-5
2017-12-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-23	1624.08	1654.13	38.46%	61.31%	-19.79	9-6
2017-12-31	Carolina Panthers	W 22-10	1604.29	1598.45	57.96%	41.81%	+23.57	10-6
2017-09-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-0	1495.52	1508.01	40.88%	58.89%	+42.83	1-0
2017-09-17	Cleveland Browns	W 24-10	1538.35	1402.20	74.43%	25.34%	+15.44	2-0
2017-09-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-44	1553.79	1449.44	64.46%	35.31%	-63.75	2-1
2017-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-26	1490.04	1558.68	47.32%	52.45%	-31.75	2-2
2017-10-08	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-17	1458.29	1510.96	35.43%	64.34%	+37.73	3-2
2017-10-15	Chicago Bears	L 24-27	1496.02	1388.78	71.16%	28.61%	-20.04	3-3
2017-10-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-24	1475.98	1543.36	33.52%	66.25%	-15.44	3-4
2017-10-26	Miami Dolphins	W 40-0	1460.54	1492.39	52.61%	47.16%	+48.53	4-4
2017-11-05	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-23	1509.07	1477.43	47.13%	52.64%	-13.28	4-5
2017-11-19	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-0	1495.79	1513.16	40.20%	59.56%	+46.46	5-5
2017-11-27	Houston Texans	W 23-16	1542.25	1470.70	66.78%	32.98%	+14.20	6-5
2017-12-03	Detroit Lions	W 44-20	1556.45	1533.28	60.37%	39.40%	+31.42	7-5
2017-12-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 38-39	1587.87	1651.04	34.06%	65.71%	-5.54	7-6
2017-12-17	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-10	1582.33	1241.44	83.99%	15.78%	+10.60	8-6
2017-12-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 23-16	1592.93	1317.66	86.55%	13.22%	+5.70	9-6
2017-12-31	Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-31	1598.63	1421.83	78.60%	21.17%	-25.56	9-7
2017-09-10	New York Jets	W 21-12	1487.49	1457.64	61.28%	38.49%	+18.80	1-0
2017-09-17	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-9	1506.29	1536.50	38.44%	61.33%	-15.33	1-1
2017-09-24	Denver Broncos	W 26-16	1490.96	1575.55	45.04%	54.73%	+28.15	2-1
2017-10-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-17	1519.11	1626.40	28.61%	71.16%	+28.35	3-1
2017-10-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-20	1547.46	1476.15	52.83%	46.93%	-17.19	3-2
2017-10-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-27	1530.27	1468.61	65.51%	34.26%	+9.66	4-2
2017-10-29	Oakland Raiders	W 34-14	1539.93	1474.04	66.06%	33.71%	+24.54	5-2
2017-11-02	@ New York Jets	L 21-34	1564.47	1431.43	61.50%	38.27%	-36.06	5-3
2017-11-12	New Orleans Saints	L 10-47	1528.41	1614.22	44.86%	54.91%	-44.40	5-4
2017-11-19	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-54	1484.01	1470.30	44.57%	55.20%	-39.72	5-5
2017-11-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-10	1444.29	1587.97	24.52%	75.24%	+29.97	6-5
2017-12-03	New England Patriots	L 3-23	1474.26	1702.26	26.41%	73.36%	-19.24	6-6
2017-12-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 13-7	1455.02	1357.52	70.00%	29.77%	+11.88	7-6
2017-12-17	Miami Dolphins	W 24-16	1466.90	1442.72	60.50%	39.26%	+18.07	8-6
2017-12-24	@ New England Patriots	L 16-37	1484.97	1701.20	17.63%	82.14%	-13.16	8-7
2017-12-31	@ Miami Dolphins	W 22-16	1471.81	1409.60	51.53%	48.24%	+19.23	9-7
2017-09-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-3	1504.28	1414.40	55.48%	44.28%	+32.22	1-0
2017-09-17	Buffalo Bills	W 9-3	1536.50	1506.29	61.33%	38.44%	+15.33	2-0
2017-09-24	New Orleans Saints	L 13-34	1551.83	1446.08	70.98%	28.79%	-52.90	2-1
2017-10-01	@ New England Patriots	W 33-30	1498.93	1604.46	28.81%	70.95%	+19.99	3-1
2017-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1518.92	1558.50	37.17%	62.60%	+17.63	4-1
2017-10-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-28	1536.55	1565.38	53.04%	46.73%	-19.29	4-2
2017-10-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-17	1517.26	1408.82	58.10%	41.67%	-35.36	4-3
2017-10-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-3	1481.90	1458.96	45.89%	53.88%	+32.79	5-3
2017-11-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1514.69	1568.22	49.49%	50.28%	+14.17	6-3
2017-11-13	Miami Dolphins	W 45-21	1528.86	1427.99	70.40%	29.37%	+23.43	7-3
2017-11-26	@ New York Jets	W 35-27	1552.29	1449.01	57.38%	42.39%	+19.51	8-3
2017-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-31	1571.80	1642.28	33.12%	66.65%	-17.05	8-4
2017-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-24	1554.75	1662.29	41.79%	57.98%	+24.94	9-4
2017-12-17	Green Bay Packers	W 31-24	1579.69	1487.17	69.40%	30.37%	+13.09	10-4
2017-12-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 22-19	1592.78	1404.70	79.66%	20.11%	+5.67	11-4
2017-12-31	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-22	1598.45	1604.29	41.81%	57.96%	-23.57	11-5
2017-09-10	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-23	1431.19	1574.89	36.83%	62.94%	-14.68	0-1
2017-09-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-29	1416.51	1502.01	31.23%	68.53%	-23.86	0-2
2017-09-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-17	1392.65	1586.30	30.43%	69.34%	+27.62	1-2
2017-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-35	1420.27	1550.74	25.96%	73.81%	-19.37	1-3
2017-10-09	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1400.90	1499.94	42.99%	56.78%	-12.12	1-4
2017-10-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 27-24	1388.78	1496.02	28.61%	71.16%	+20.04	2-4
2017-10-22	Carolina Panthers	W 17-3	1408.82	1517.26	41.67%	58.10%	+35.36	3-4
2017-10-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 12-20	1444.18	1587.15	24.60%	75.17%	-11.33	3-5
2017-11-12	Green Bay Packers	L 16-23	1432.85	1492.22	48.65%	51.12%	-20.94	3-6
2017-11-19	Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1411.91	1542.78	38.56%	61.20%	-10.88	3-7
2017-11-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-31	1401.03	1674.42	13.35%	86.42%	-11.50	3-8
2017-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-15	1389.53	1300.33	68.99%	30.78%	-11.22	3-9
2017-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-7	1378.31	1461.82	31.48%	68.29%	+56.62	4-9
2017-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-20	1434.93	1514.91	31.92%	67.85%	-16.43	4-10
2017-12-24	Cleveland Browns	W 20-3	1418.50	1230.84	79.62%	20.15%	+13.53	5-10
2017-12-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1432.03	1672.33	15.71%	84.06%	-9.23	5-11
2017-09-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-20	1508.01	1495.52	58.89%	40.88%	-42.83	0-1
2017-09-14	Houston Texans	L 9-13	1465.18	1451.52	59.05%	40.72%	-19.21	0-2
2017-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-27	1445.97	1542.30	29.91%	69.86%	-8.43	0-3
2017-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-7	1437.54	1376.73	51.32%	48.44%	+38.61	1-3
2017-10-08	Buffalo Bills	W 20-16	1476.15	1547.46	46.93%	52.83%	+17.18	2-3
2017-10-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-29	1493.33	1567.94	32.60%	67.17%	-20.55	2-4
2017-10-29	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-23	1472.78	1368.39	70.82%	28.95%	+4.71	3-4
2017-11-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-23	1477.49	1549.80	32.89%	66.88%	-21.41	3-5
2017-11-12	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-24	1456.08	1490.71	37.84%	61.93%	-12.32	3-6
2017-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 20-17	1443.76	1422.53	45.64%	54.13%	+15.25	4-6
2017-11-26	Cleveland Browns	W 30-16	1459.01	1270.13	79.74%	20.03%	+12.21	5-6
2017-12-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1471.22	1641.64	33.33%	66.44%	-9.40	5-7
2017-12-10	Chicago Bears	L 7-33	1461.82	1378.31	68.29%	31.48%	-56.62	5-8
2017-12-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-34	1405.20	1637.35	16.34%	83.43%	-13.83	5-9
2017-12-24	Detroit Lions	W 26-17	1391.37	1531.34	37.33%	62.44%	+30.46	6-9
2017-12-31	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 31-27	1421.83	1598.63	21.17%	78.60%	+25.56	7-9
2017-09-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-21	1412.78	1551.29	37.53%	62.24%	-10.58	0-1
2017-09-17	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1402.20	1538.35	25.34%	74.43%	-15.44	0-2
2017-09-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-31	1386.76	1438.25	35.59%	64.18%	-10.03	0-3
2017-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-31	1376.73	1437.54	48.44%	51.32%	-38.61	0-4
2017-10-08	New York Jets	L 14-17	1338.12	1463.59	39.30%	60.46%	-11.08	0-5
2017-10-15	@ Houston Texans	L 17-33	1327.04	1498.65	21.67%	78.10%	-14.12	0-6
2017-10-22	Tennessee Titans	L 9-12	1312.92	1467.45	35.39%	64.38%	-9.98	0-7
2017-10-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-33	1302.94	1558.80	18.58%	81.19%	-12.48	0-8
2017-11-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-38	1290.46	1533.32	15.51%	84.26%	-9.46	0-9
2017-11-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-19	1281.00	1579.79	19.28%	80.49%	-10.87	0-10
2017-11-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-30	1270.13	1459.01	20.03%	79.74%	-12.21	0-11
2017-12-03	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-19	1257.92	1555.64	11.81%	87.96%	-5.78	0-12
2017-12-10	Green Bay Packers	L 21-27	1252.14	1476.47	26.82%	72.94%	-10.70	0-13
2017-12-17	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-27	1241.44	1582.33	15.78%	83.99%	-10.60	0-14
2017-12-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-20	1230.84	1418.50	20.15%	79.62%	-13.53	0-15
2017-12-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-28	1217.31	1661.35	5.45%	94.32%	-1.78	0-16
2017-09-10	New York Giants	W 19-3	1549.02	1506.62	62.97%	36.79%	+23.95	1-0
2017-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-42	1572.97	1536.67	47.80%	51.97%	-38.88	1-1
2017-09-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 28-17	1534.09	1506.61	46.53%	53.23%	+28.72	2-1
2017-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 30-35	1562.81	1457.94	70.88%	28.89%	-25.77	2-2
2017-10-08	Green Bay Packers	L 31-35	1537.04	1570.11	52.43%	47.34%	-17.06	2-3
2017-10-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 40-10	1519.98	1341.69	67.44%	32.33%	+28.83	3-3
2017-10-29	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-19	1548.81	1504.56	48.94%	50.83%	+30.94	4-3
2017-11-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-17	1579.75	1636.70	49.00%	50.77%	+27.39	5-3
2017-11-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-27	1607.14	1554.06	50.21%	49.55%	-36.53	5-4
2017-11-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-37	1570.61	1632.90	48.23%	51.54%	-41.52	5-5
2017-11-23	Los Angeles Chargers	L 6-28	1529.09	1510.02	59.80%	39.97%	-45.62	5-6
2017-11-30	Washington Redskins	W 38-14	1483.47	1483.14	57.19%	42.58%	+33.95	6-6
2017-12-10	@ New York Giants	W 30-10	1517.42	1351.69	65.83%	33.93%	+24.71	7-6
2017-12-17	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1542.13	1456.71	54.85%	44.92%	+12.66	8-6
2017-12-24	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-21	1554.79	1545.20	58.48%	41.29%	-28.54	8-7
2017-12-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 6-0	1526.25	1688.77	22.57%	77.19%	+10.25	9-7
2017-09-11	Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-21	1526.75	1472.18	64.59%	35.18%	+9.92	1-0
2017-09-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-17	1536.67	1572.97	51.97%	47.80%	+38.88	2-0
2017-09-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-26	1575.55	1490.96	54.73%	45.04%	-28.15	2-1
2017-10-01	Oakland Raiders	W 16-10	1547.40	1526.81	60.01%	39.76%	+15.85	3-1
2017-10-15	New York Giants	L 10-23	1563.25	1411.80	76.06%	23.71%	-44.59	3-2
2017-10-22	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 0-21	1518.66	1450.74	52.35%	47.42%	-39.02	3-3
2017-10-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-29	1479.64	1624.11	24.44%	75.33%	-12.59	3-4
2017-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-51	1467.05	1611.87	24.40%	75.36%	-21.03	3-5
2017-11-12	New England Patriots	L 16-41	1446.02	1652.84	28.85%	70.92%	-23.49	3-6
2017-11-19	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1422.53	1443.76	54.13%	45.64%	-15.25	3-7
2017-11-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-21	1407.28	1446.79	37.18%	62.59%	-16.01	3-8
2017-12-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-35	1391.27	1369.59	45.70%	54.06%	-37.92	3-9
2017-12-10	New York Jets	W 23-0	1353.35	1455.70	42.52%	57.25%	+44.65	4-9
2017-12-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 25-13	1398.00	1345.65	50.11%	49.66%	+27.99	5-9
2017-12-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 11-27	1425.99	1445.91	39.85%	59.92%	-25.95	5-10
2017-12-31	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1400.04	1597.14	30.01%	69.76%	-2.82	5-11
2017-09-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 35-23	1492.62	1518.17	53.51%	46.26%	+26.08	1-0
2017-09-18	@ New York Giants	W 24-10	1518.70	1482.67	47.76%	52.01%	+31.65	2-0
2017-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	L 26-30	1550.35	1610.62	48.52%	51.25%	-15.79	2-1
2017-10-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 14-7	1534.56	1523.88	44.14%	55.63%	+23.94	3-1
2017-10-08	Carolina Panthers	L 24-27	1558.50	1518.92	62.60%	37.17%	-17.63	3-2
2017-10-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 38-52	1540.87	1532.88	43.76%	56.01%	-26.64	3-3
2017-10-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 15-20	1514.23	1588.50	46.51%	53.26%	-16.92	3-4
2017-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-17	1497.31	1528.24	38.34%	61.43%	+36.01	4-4
2017-11-12	Cleveland Browns	W 38-24	1533.32	1290.46	84.26%	15.51%	+9.46	5-4
2017-11-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-24	1542.78	1411.91	61.20%	38.56%	+10.87	6-4
2017-11-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 23-30	1553.65	1622.25	47.32%	52.44%	-20.37	6-5
2017-12-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-44	1533.28	1556.45	39.40%	60.37%	-31.42	6-6
2017-12-10	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-21	1501.86	1426.02	53.48%	46.28%	+13.05	7-6
2017-12-16	Chicago Bears	W 20-10	1514.91	1434.93	67.85%	31.92%	+16.43	8-6
2017-12-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-26	1531.34	1391.37	62.44%	37.33%	-30.46	8-7
2017-12-31	Green Bay Packers	W 35-11	1500.88	1452.93	63.71%	36.05%	+28.75	9-7
2017-09-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-9	1544.25	1536.07	58.29%	41.48%	+19.10	1-0
2017-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 23-34	1563.35	1589.57	38.98%	60.78%	-21.05	1-1
2017-09-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1542.30	1445.97	69.86%	29.91%	+8.44	2-1
2017-09-28	Chicago Bears	W 35-14	1550.74	1420.27	73.81%	25.96%	+19.37	3-1
2017-10-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 35-31	1570.11	1537.04	47.34%	52.43%	+17.06	4-1
2017-10-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-23	1587.17	1512.06	53.38%	46.39%	-31.30	4-2
2017-10-22	New Orleans Saints	L 17-26	1555.87	1559.52	56.62%	43.14%	-27.63	4-3
2017-11-06	Detroit Lions	L 17-30	1528.24	1497.31	61.43%	38.34%	-36.02	4-4
2017-11-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-16	1492.22	1432.85	51.12%	48.65%	+20.94	5-4
2017-11-19	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-23	1513.16	1495.79	59.56%	40.20%	-46.46	5-5
2017-11-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-31	1466.70	1635.44	21.95%	77.81%	-6.19	5-6
2017-12-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-20	1460.51	1441.98	59.73%	40.04%	+15.96	6-6
2017-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-21	1476.47	1252.14	72.94%	26.82%	+10.70	7-6
2017-12-17	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-31	1487.17	1579.69	30.37%	69.40%	-13.08	7-7
2017-12-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-16	1474.09	1651.18	32.48%	67.29%	-21.16	7-8
2017-12-31	@ Detroit Lions	L 11-35	1452.93	1500.88	36.05%	63.71%	-28.75	7-9
2017-09-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-29	1500.58	1447.99	64.33%	35.44%	-49.06	0-1
2017-09-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-9	1451.52	1465.18	40.72%	59.05%	+19.20	1-1
2017-09-24	@ New England Patriots	L 33-36	1470.72	1597.01	26.43%	73.34%	-7.45	1-2
2017-10-01	Tennessee Titans	W 57-14	1463.27	1514.00	49.89%	49.87%	+53.20	2-2
2017-10-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 34-42	1516.47	1646.30	38.71%	61.06%	-17.82	2-3
2017-10-15	Cleveland Browns	W 33-17	1498.65	1327.04	78.10%	21.67%	+14.13	3-3
2017-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 38-41	1512.78	1584.21	33.00%	66.77%	-9.31	3-4
2017-11-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 14-20	1503.47	1363.68	74.83%	24.94%	-29.80	3-5
2017-11-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-33	1473.67	1580.95	28.61%	71.16%	-23.76	3-6
2017-11-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-21	1449.91	1433.84	59.39%	40.38%	+20.79	4-6
2017-11-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 16-23	1470.70	1542.25	32.98%	66.78%	-14.21	4-7
2017-12-03	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-24	1456.49	1495.13	37.30%	62.47%	-20.14	4-8
2017-12-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-26	1436.35	1311.55	73.18%	26.59%	-37.63	4-9
2017-12-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-45	1398.72	1604.48	18.52%	81.25%	-18.60	4-10
2017-12-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-34	1380.12	1641.67	22.83%	76.94%	-19.68	4-11
2017-12-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-22	1360.44	1311.96	49.55%	50.22%	-24.18	4-12
2017-09-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-46	1507.85	1416.66	55.67%	44.10%	-55.08	0-1
2017-09-17	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-16	1452.77	1492.09	51.53%	48.23%	-14.52	0-2
2017-09-24	Cleveland Browns	W 31-28	1438.25	1386.76	64.18%	35.59%	+10.04	1-2
2017-10-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 18-46	1448.29	1505.55	34.83%	64.94%	-30.01	1-3
2017-10-08	San Francisco 49ers	W 26-23	1418.28	1356.36	65.55%	34.22%	+9.65	2-3
2017-10-16	@ Tennessee Titans	L 22-36	1427.93	1442.76	40.56%	59.21%	-24.69	2-4
2017-10-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-27	1403.24	1514.95	41.21%	58.56%	-34.85	2-5
2017-10-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-24	1368.39	1472.78	28.95%	70.82%	-4.71	2-6
2017-11-05	@ Houston Texans	W 20-14	1363.68	1503.47	24.94%	74.83%	+29.80	3-6
2017-11-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-20	1393.48	1605.42	28.25%	71.52%	-7.97	3-7
2017-11-26	Tennessee Titans	L 16-20	1385.51	1480.97	43.49%	56.27%	-14.15	3-8
2017-12-03	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-30	1371.36	1571.70	19.00%	80.77%	-13.84	3-9
2017-12-10	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-13	1357.52	1455.02	29.77%	70.00%	-11.87	3-10
2017-12-14	Denver Broncos	L 13-25	1345.65	1398.00	49.66%	50.11%	-27.99	3-11
2017-12-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 16-23	1317.66	1592.93	13.22%	86.55%	-5.70	3-12
2017-12-31	Houston Texans	W 22-13	1311.96	1360.44	50.22%	49.55%	+24.19	4-12
2017-09-10	@ Houston Texans	W 29-7	1447.99	1500.58	35.44%	64.33%	+49.07	1-0
2017-09-17	Tennessee Titans	L 16-37	1497.06	1447.77	63.89%	35.88%	-47.62	1-1
2017-09-24	Baltimore Ravens	W 44-7	1449.44	1553.79	35.31%	64.46%	+63.76	2-1
2017-10-01	@ New York Jets	L 20-23	1513.20	1448.99	51.81%	47.95%	-14.60	2-2
2017-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-9	1498.60	1590.42	30.46%	69.31%	+51.65	3-2
2017-10-15	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-27	1550.25	1463.90	68.64%	31.13%	-35.30	3-3
2017-10-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-0	1514.95	1403.24	58.56%	41.21%	+34.85	4-3
2017-11-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-7	1549.80	1477.49	66.88%	32.89%	+21.42	5-3
2017-11-12	Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-17	1571.22	1478.88	69.37%	30.39%	+8.57	6-3
2017-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 19-7	1579.79	1281.00	80.49%	19.28%	+10.88	7-3
2017-11-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-27	1590.67	1413.06	67.35%	32.42%	-18.97	7-4
2017-12-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-10	1571.70	1371.36	80.77%	19.00%	+13.84	8-4
2017-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-24	1585.54	1619.93	52.24%	47.53%	+18.94	9-4
2017-12-17	Houston Texans	W 45-7	1604.48	1398.72	81.25%	18.52%	+18.60	10-4
2017-12-24	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 33-44	1623.08	1363.70	76.72%	23.05%	-41.38	10-5
2017-12-31	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-15	1581.70	1468.94	58.71%	41.06%	-7.11	10-6
2017-09-07	@ New England Patriots	W 42-27	1555.78	1609.15	35.34%	64.43%	+40.58	1-0
2017-09-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1596.36	1529.97	66.12%	33.64%	+14.49	2-0
2017-09-24	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-10	1610.85	1450.30	65.16%	34.60%	+21.08	3-0
2017-10-02	Washington Redskins	W 29-20	1631.93	1531.49	70.35%	29.42%	+14.37	4-0
2017-10-08	@ Houston Texans	W 42-34	1646.30	1516.47	61.06%	38.71%	+17.82	5-0
2017-10-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-19	1664.12	1538.77	73.24%	26.53%	-29.17	5-1
2017-10-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 30-31	1634.95	1463.21	66.61%	33.16%	-10.84	5-2
2017-10-30	Denver Broncos	W 29-19	1624.11	1479.64	75.33%	24.44%	+12.59	6-2
2017-11-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-28	1636.70	1579.75	50.77%	49.00%	-27.39	6-3
2017-11-19	@ New York Giants	L 9-12	1609.31	1359.15	75.76%	24.01%	-21.34	6-4
2017-11-26	Buffalo Bills	L 10-16	1587.97	1444.29	75.24%	24.52%	-29.97	6-5
2017-12-03	@ New York Jets	L 31-38	1558.00	1429.50	60.88%	38.89%	-26.19	6-6
2017-12-10	Oakland Raiders	W 26-15	1531.81	1475.59	64.80%	34.96%	+18.87	7-6
2017-12-16	Los Angeles Chargers	W 30-13	1550.68	1580.23	52.94%	46.83%	+31.42	8-6
2017-12-24	Miami Dolphins	W 29-13	1582.10	1424.64	76.68%	23.09%	+15.04	9-6
2017-12-31	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-24	1597.14	1400.04	69.76%	30.01%	+2.82	10-6
2017-09-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-24	1472.18	1526.75	35.18%	64.59%	-9.92	0-1
2017-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 17-19	1462.26	1498.47	51.98%	47.79%	-11.96	0-2
2017-09-24	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-24	1450.30	1610.85	34.60%	65.16%	-21.08	0-3
2017-10-01	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-26	1429.22	1525.03	43.44%	56.33%	-10.00	0-4
2017-10-08	@ New York Giants	W 27-22	1419.22	1433.30	40.66%	59.11%	+21.50	1-4
2017-10-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 17-16	1440.72	1473.24	38.13%	61.64%	+10.02	2-4
2017-10-22	Denver Broncos	W 21-0	1450.74	1518.66	47.42%	52.35%	+39.02	3-4
2017-10-29	@ New England Patriots	L 13-21	1489.76	1641.95	23.63%	76.14%	-10.88	3-5
2017-11-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-20	1478.88	1571.22	30.39%	69.37%	-8.58	3-6
2017-11-19	Buffalo Bills	W 54-24	1470.30	1484.01	55.20%	44.57%	+39.72	4-6
2017-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-6	1510.02	1529.09	39.97%	59.80%	+45.62	5-6
2017-12-03	Cleveland Browns	W 19-10	1555.64	1257.92	87.96%	11.81%	+5.77	6-6
2017-12-10	Washington Redskins	W 30-13	1561.41	1449.20	71.74%	28.03%	+18.82	7-6
2017-12-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-30	1580.23	1550.68	46.83%	52.94%	-31.41	7-7
2017-12-24	@ New York Jets	W 14-7	1548.82	1401.90	63.37%	36.40%	+15.67	8-7
2017-12-31	Oakland Raiders	W 30-10	1564.49	1436.25	73.56%	26.21%	+19.09	9-7
2017-09-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 46-9	1416.66	1507.85	44.10%	55.67%	+55.08	1-0
2017-09-17	Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1471.74	1472.10	57.09%	42.68%	-24.57	1-1
2017-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 41-39	1447.17	1374.99	52.96%	46.81%	+10.77	2-1
2017-10-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 35-30	1457.94	1562.81	28.89%	70.88%	+25.77	3-1
2017-10-08	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-16	1483.71	1535.55	49.73%	50.03%	-19.81	3-2
2017-10-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-17	1463.90	1550.25	31.13%	68.64%	+35.29	4-2
2017-10-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 33-0	1499.19	1472.48	53.72%	46.05%	+43.04	5-2
2017-11-05	@ New York Giants	W 51-17	1542.23	1427.55	58.97%	40.80%	+38.72	6-2
2017-11-12	Houston Texans	W 33-7	1580.95	1473.67	71.16%	28.61%	+23.75	7-2
2017-11-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1604.70	1592.49	44.36%	55.41%	-29.76	7-3
2017-11-26	New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1574.94	1664.36	44.35%	55.42%	+22.08	8-3
2017-12-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 32-16	1597.02	1432.03	65.74%	34.03%	+22.16	9-3
2017-12-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 35-43	1619.18	1651.23	52.58%	47.19%	-24.19	9-4
2017-12-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 42-7	1594.99	1600.99	41.79%	57.98%	+55.79	10-4
2017-12-24	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-23	1650.78	1479.77	66.51%	33.26%	+10.82	11-4
2017-12-31	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-34	1661.60	1405.07	85.26%	14.51%	-63.54	11-5
2017-09-17	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 19-17	1498.47	1462.26	47.79%	51.98%	+11.96	1-0
2017-09-24	@ New York Jets	L 6-20	1510.43	1414.73	56.31%	43.46%	-34.27	1-1
2017-10-01	New Orleans Saints	L 0-20	1476.16	1498.97	46.61%	53.16%	-33.91	1-2
2017-10-08	Tennessee Titans	W 16-10	1442.25	1460.79	54.51%	45.26%	+18.03	2-2
2017-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1460.28	1598.06	25.16%	74.61%	+21.02	3-2
2017-10-22	New York Jets	W 31-28	1481.30	1457.80	60.41%	39.36%	+11.09	4-2
2017-10-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 0-40	1492.39	1460.54	47.16%	52.61%	-48.53	4-3
2017-11-05	Oakland Raiders	L 24-27	1443.86	1449.50	56.34%	43.42%	-15.87	4-4
2017-11-13	@ Carolina Panthers	L 21-45	1427.99	1528.86	29.37%	70.40%	-23.42	4-5
2017-11-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-30	1404.57	1428.90	53.68%	46.08%	-27.62	4-6
2017-11-26	@ New England Patriots	L 17-35	1376.95	1694.90	10.65%	89.12%	-7.36	4-7
2017-12-03	Denver Broncos	W 35-9	1369.59	1391.27	54.06%	45.70%	+37.92	5-7
2017-12-11	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1407.51	1721.50	17.95%	81.82%	+35.21	6-7
2017-12-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-24	1442.72	1466.90	39.26%	60.50%	-18.08	6-8
2017-12-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-29	1424.64	1582.10	23.09%	76.68%	-15.04	6-9
2017-12-31	Buffalo Bills	L 16-22	1409.60	1471.81	48.24%	51.53%	-19.23	6-10
2017-09-11	New Orleans Saints	W 29-19	1494.38	1496.61	56.82%	42.94%	+22.10	1-0
2017-09-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-26	1516.48	1561.87	36.39%	63.37%	-24.42	1-1
2017-09-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-17	1492.06	1525.86	52.33%	47.44%	+31.82	2-1
2017-10-01	Detroit Lions	L 7-14	1523.88	1534.56	55.63%	44.14%	-23.94	2-2
2017-10-09	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1499.94	1400.90	56.78%	42.99%	+12.12	3-2
2017-10-15	Green Bay Packers	W 23-10	1512.06	1587.17	46.39%	53.38%	+31.30	4-2
2017-10-22	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-16	1543.36	1475.98	66.25%	33.52%	+15.44	5-2
2017-10-29	@ Cleveland Browns	W 33-16	1558.80	1302.94	81.19%	18.58%	+12.48	6-2
2017-11-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-30	1571.28	1494.08	53.68%	46.09%	+21.21	7-2
2017-11-19	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-7	1592.49	1604.70	55.41%	44.36%	+29.76	8-2
2017-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-23	1622.25	1553.65	52.44%	47.32%	+20.37	9-2
2017-12-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-9	1642.62	1621.15	45.68%	54.09%	+19.67	10-2
2017-12-10	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-31	1662.29	1554.75	57.98%	41.79%	-24.94	10-3
2017-12-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-7	1637.35	1405.20	83.43%	16.34%	+13.83	11-3
2017-12-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-0	1651.18	1474.09	67.29%	32.48%	+21.15	12-3
2017-12-31	Chicago Bears	W 23-10	1672.33	1432.03	84.06%	15.71%	+9.23	13-3
2017-09-07	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-42	1609.15	1555.78	64.43%	35.34%	-40.58	0-1
2017-09-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 36-20	1568.57	1474.52	56.08%	43.69%	+28.44	1-1
2017-09-24	Houston Texans	W 36-33	1597.01	1470.72	73.34%	26.43%	+7.45	2-1
2017-10-01	Carolina Panthers	L 30-33	1604.46	1498.93	70.95%	28.81%	-19.98	2-2
2017-10-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-14	1584.48	1502.20	54.40%	45.37%	+16.50	3-2
2017-10-15	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1600.98	1474.67	60.58%	39.19%	+16.88	4-2
2017-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1617.86	1577.04	62.76%	37.01%	+24.09	5-2
2017-10-29	Los Angeles Chargers	W 21-13	1641.95	1489.76	76.14%	23.63%	+10.89	6-2
2017-11-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 41-16	1652.84	1446.02	70.92%	28.85%	+23.48	7-2
2017-11-19	@ Oakland Raiders	W 33-8	1676.32	1465.37	76.96%	22.81%	+18.58	8-2
2017-11-26	Miami Dolphins	W 35-17	1694.90	1376.95	89.12%	10.65%	+7.36	9-2
2017-12-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-3	1702.26	1474.26	73.36%	26.41%	+19.24	10-2
2017-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-27	1721.50	1407.51	81.82%	17.95%	-35.20	10-3
2017-12-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1686.30	1656.58	46.86%	52.91%	+14.90	11-3
2017-12-24	Buffalo Bills	W 37-16	1701.20	1484.97	82.14%	17.63%	+13.16	12-3
2017-12-31	New York Jets	W 26-6	1714.36	1386.23	89.67%	10.10%	+7.37	13-3
2017-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-29	1496.61	1494.38	42.94%	56.82%	-22.09	0-1
2017-09-17	New England Patriots	L 20-36	1474.52	1568.57	43.69%	56.08%	-28.44	0-2
2017-09-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-13	1446.08	1551.83	28.79%	70.98%	+52.89	1-2
2017-10-01	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-0	1498.97	1476.16	53.16%	46.61%	+33.91	2-2
2017-10-15	Detroit Lions	W 52-38	1532.88	1540.87	56.01%	43.76%	+26.64	3-2
2017-10-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-17	1559.52	1555.87	43.14%	56.62%	+27.63	4-2
2017-10-29	Chicago Bears	W 20-12	1587.15	1444.18	75.17%	24.60%	+11.33	5-2
2017-11-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-10	1598.48	1426.16	78.17%	21.60%	+15.74	6-2
2017-11-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 47-10	1614.22	1528.41	54.91%	44.86%	+44.40	7-2
2017-11-19	Washington Redskins	W 34-31	1658.62	1472.87	79.45%	20.32%	+5.74	8-2
2017-11-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-26	1664.36	1574.94	55.42%	44.35%	-22.08	8-3
2017-12-03	Carolina Panthers	W 31-21	1642.28	1571.80	66.65%	33.12%	+17.05	9-3
2017-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1659.33	1601.47	50.90%	48.87%	-14.34	9-4
2017-12-17	New York Jets	W 31-19	1644.99	1411.04	83.57%	16.20%	+9.14	10-4
2017-12-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-13	1654.13	1624.08	61.31%	38.46%	+19.80	11-4
2017-12-31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-31	1673.93	1399.03	78.26%	21.51%	-33.67	11-5
2017-09-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-19	1506.62	1549.02	36.79%	62.97%	-23.95	0-1
2017-09-18	Detroit Lions	L 10-24	1482.67	1518.70	52.01%	47.76%	-31.66	0-2
2017-09-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1451.01	1515.48	33.89%	65.88%	-9.55	0-3
2017-10-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-25	1441.46	1494.04	35.44%	64.33%	-8.16	0-4
2017-10-08	Los Angeles Chargers	L 22-27	1433.30	1419.22	59.11%	40.66%	-21.50	0-5
2017-10-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-10	1411.80	1563.25	23.71%	76.06%	+44.60	1-5
2017-10-22	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-24	1456.40	1555.37	43.00%	56.77%	-28.85	1-6
2017-11-05	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-51	1427.55	1542.23	40.80%	58.97%	-38.71	1-7
2017-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-31	1388.84	1283.05	57.73%	42.04%	-29.69	1-8
2017-11-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 12-9	1359.15	1609.31	24.01%	75.76%	+21.34	2-8
2017-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-20	1380.49	1467.14	31.09%	68.68%	-16.01	2-9
2017-12-03	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1364.48	1462.81	29.67%	70.10%	-12.79	2-10
2017-12-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-30	1351.69	1517.42	33.93%	65.83%	-24.70	2-11
2017-12-17	Philadelphia Eagles	L 29-34	1326.99	1675.42	15.21%	84.56%	-5.54	2-12
2017-12-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 0-23	1321.45	1415.31	30.21%	69.56%	-23.59	2-13
2017-12-31	Washington Redskins	W 18-10	1297.86	1471.85	32.87%	66.89%	+30.76	3-13
2017-09-10	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-21	1457.64	1487.49	38.49%	61.28%	-18.79	0-1
2017-09-17	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-45	1438.85	1537.51	29.63%	70.14%	-24.12	0-2
2017-09-24	Miami Dolphins	W 20-6	1414.73	1510.43	43.46%	56.31%	+34.26	1-2
2017-10-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-20	1448.99	1513.20	47.95%	51.81%	+14.60	2-2
2017-10-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 17-14	1463.59	1338.12	60.46%	39.30%	+11.08	3-2
2017-10-15	New England Patriots	L 17-24	1474.67	1600.98	39.19%	60.58%	-16.87	3-3
2017-10-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-31	1457.80	1481.30	39.36%	60.41%	-11.10	3-4
2017-10-29	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-25	1446.70	1552.95	41.97%	57.80%	-15.27	3-5
2017-11-02	Buffalo Bills	W 34-21	1431.43	1564.47	38.27%	61.50%	+36.06	4-5
2017-11-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-15	1467.49	1410.43	50.79%	48.98%	-18.48	4-6
2017-11-26	Carolina Panthers	L 27-35	1449.01	1552.29	42.39%	57.38%	-19.51	4-7
2017-12-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-31	1429.50	1558.00	38.89%	60.88%	+26.20	5-7
2017-12-10	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-23	1455.70	1353.35	57.25%	42.52%	-44.66	5-8
2017-12-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 19-31	1411.04	1644.99	16.20%	83.57%	-9.14	5-9
2017-12-24	Los Angeles Chargers	L 7-14	1401.90	1548.82	36.40%	63.37%	-15.67	5-10
2017-12-31	@ New England Patriots	L 6-26	1386.23	1714.36	10.10%	89.67%	-7.37	5-11
2017-09-10	@ Tennessee Titans	W 26-16	1510.78	1474.50	47.80%	51.97%	+26.73	1-0
2017-09-17	New York Jets	W 45-20	1537.51	1438.85	70.14%	29.63%	+24.12	2-0
2017-09-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-27	1561.63	1496.67	51.92%	47.84%	-34.82	2-1
2017-10-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-16	1526.81	1547.40	39.76%	60.01%	-15.85	2-2
2017-10-08	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-30	1510.96	1458.29	64.34%	35.43%	-37.72	2-3
2017-10-15	Los Angeles Chargers	L 16-17	1473.24	1440.72	61.64%	38.13%	-10.03	2-4
2017-10-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-30	1463.21	1634.95	33.16%	66.61%	+10.83	3-4
2017-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-34	1474.04	1539.93	33.71%	66.06%	-24.54	3-5
2017-11-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1449.50	1443.86	43.42%	56.34%	+15.87	4-5
2017-11-19	New England Patriots	L 8-33	1465.37	1676.32	22.81%	76.96%	-18.58	4-6
2017-11-26	Denver Broncos	W 21-14	1446.79	1407.28	62.59%	37.18%	+16.02	5-6
2017-12-03	New York Giants	W 24-17	1462.81	1364.48	70.10%	29.67%	+12.78	6-6
2017-12-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 15-26	1475.59	1531.81	34.96%	64.80%	-18.88	6-7
2017-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1456.71	1542.13	44.92%	54.85%	-12.66	6-8
2017-12-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-19	1444.05	1680.97	15.97%	83.80%	-7.80	6-9
2017-12-31	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-30	1436.25	1564.49	26.21%	73.56%	-19.09	6-10
2017-09-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-17	1495.56	1506.50	41.10%	58.67%	+34.41	1-0
2017-09-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1529.97	1596.36	33.64%	66.12%	-14.49	1-1
2017-09-24	New York Giants	W 27-24	1515.48	1451.01	65.88%	33.89%	+9.55	2-1
2017-10-01	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 26-24	1525.03	1429.22	56.33%	43.44%	+10.00	3-1
2017-10-08	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-7	1535.03	1485.75	63.89%	35.88%	+30.35	4-1
2017-10-12	@ Carolina Panthers	W 28-23	1565.38	1536.55	46.73%	53.04%	+19.29	5-1
2017-10-23	Washington Redskins	W 34-24	1584.67	1522.14	65.63%	34.14%	+17.58	6-1
2017-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-10	1602.25	1312.86	87.45%	12.32%	+9.62	7-1
2017-11-05	Denver Broncos	W 51-23	1611.87	1467.05	75.36%	24.40%	+21.03	8-1
2017-11-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 37-9	1632.90	1570.61	51.54%	48.23%	+41.52	9-1
2017-11-26	Chicago Bears	W 31-3	1674.42	1401.03	86.42%	13.35%	+11.51	10-1
2017-12-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-24	1685.93	1585.23	57.01%	42.75%	-34.70	10-2
2017-12-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 43-35	1651.23	1619.18	47.19%	52.58%	+24.19	11-2
2017-12-17	@ New York Giants	W 34-29	1675.42	1326.99	84.56%	15.21%	+5.55	12-2
2017-12-25	Oakland Raiders	W 19-10	1680.97	1444.05	83.80%	15.97%	+7.80	13-2
2017-12-31	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-6	1688.77	1526.25	77.19%	22.57%	-10.25	13-3
2017-09-10	@ Cleveland Browns	W 21-18	1551.29	1412.78	62.24%	37.53%	+10.58	1-0
2017-09-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-9	1561.87	1516.48	63.37%	36.39%	+24.43	2-0
2017-09-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-23	1586.30	1392.65	69.34%	30.43%	-27.62	2-1
2017-10-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 26-9	1558.68	1490.04	52.45%	47.32%	+31.74	3-1
2017-10-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 9-30	1590.42	1498.60	69.31%	30.46%	-51.65	3-2
2017-10-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-13	1538.77	1664.12	26.53%	73.24%	+29.17	4-2
2017-10-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-14	1567.94	1493.33	67.17%	32.60%	+20.56	5-2
2017-10-29	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-15	1588.50	1514.23	53.26%	46.51%	+16.92	6-2
2017-11-12	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 20-17	1605.42	1393.48	71.52%	28.25%	+7.96	7-2
2017-11-16	Tennessee Titans	W 40-17	1613.38	1503.03	71.52%	28.25%	+22.06	8-2
2017-11-26	Green Bay Packers	W 31-28	1635.44	1466.70	77.81%	21.95%	+6.20	9-2
2017-12-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1641.64	1471.22	66.44%	33.33%	+9.40	10-2
2017-12-10	Baltimore Ravens	W 39-38	1651.04	1587.87	65.71%	34.06%	+5.54	11-2
2017-12-17	New England Patriots	L 24-27	1656.58	1686.30	52.91%	46.86%	-14.91	11-3
2017-12-25	@ Houston Texans	W 34-6	1641.67	1380.12	76.94%	22.83%	+19.68	12-3
2017-12-31	Cleveland Browns	W 28-24	1661.35	1217.31	94.32%	5.45%	+1.78	13-3
2017-09-10	Carolina Panthers	L 3-23	1414.40	1504.28	44.28%	55.48%	-32.23	0-1
2017-09-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-12	1382.17	1516.98	25.48%	74.28%	-7.18	0-2
2017-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 39-41	1374.99	1447.17	46.81%	52.96%	-10.78	0-3
2017-10-01	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-18	1364.21	1477.89	27.86%	71.91%	-7.85	0-4
2017-10-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-26	1356.36	1418.28	34.22%	65.55%	-9.65	0-5
2017-10-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-26	1346.71	1517.12	21.79%	77.98%	-5.02	0-6
2017-10-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-40	1341.69	1519.98	32.33%	67.44%	-28.83	0-7
2017-10-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-33	1312.86	1602.25	12.32%	87.45%	-9.63	0-8
2017-11-05	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-20	1303.23	1429.44	39.20%	60.57%	-20.18	0-9
2017-11-12	New York Giants	W 31-21	1283.05	1388.84	42.04%	57.73%	+29.69	1-9
2017-11-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 13-24	1312.74	1572.82	22.98%	76.79%	-12.41	1-10
2017-12-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 15-14	1300.33	1389.53	30.78%	68.99%	+11.22	2-10
2017-12-10	@ Houston Texans	W 26-16	1311.55	1436.35	26.59%	73.18%	+37.63	3-10
2017-12-17	Tennessee Titans	W 25-23	1349.18	1494.29	36.64%	63.13%	+14.52	4-10
2017-12-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 44-33	1363.70	1623.08	23.05%	76.72%	+41.37	5-10
2017-12-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-13	1405.07	1661.60	14.51%	85.26%	+63.54	6-10
2017-09-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-17	1536.07	1544.25	41.48%	58.29%	-19.09	0-1
2017-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 12-9	1516.98	1382.17	74.28%	25.48%	+7.19	1-1
2017-09-24	@ Tennessee Titans	L 27-33	1524.17	1495.38	46.72%	53.05%	-18.62	1-2
2017-10-01	Indianapolis Colts	W 46-18	1505.55	1448.29	64.94%	34.83%	+30.00	2-2
2017-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-10	1535.55	1483.71	50.03%	49.73%	+19.82	3-2
2017-10-22	@ New York Giants	W 24-7	1555.37	1456.40	56.77%	43.00%	+28.84	4-2
2017-10-29	Houston Texans	W 41-38	1584.21	1512.78	66.77%	33.00%	+9.31	5-2
2017-11-05	Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1593.52	1473.63	72.62%	27.15%	-20.45	5-3
2017-11-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 22-16	1573.07	1449.62	60.19%	39.58%	+15.78	6-3
2017-11-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 31-34	1588.85	1590.59	56.89%	42.87%	-16.03	6-4
2017-11-26	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-13	1572.82	1312.74	76.79%	22.98%	+12.41	7-4
2017-12-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-10	1585.23	1685.93	42.75%	57.01%	+34.70	8-4
2017-12-10	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-30	1619.93	1585.54	47.53%	52.24%	-18.94	8-5
2017-12-17	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-42	1600.99	1594.99	57.98%	41.79%	-55.79	8-6
2017-12-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 21-12	1545.20	1554.79	41.29%	58.48%	+28.53	9-6
2017-12-31	Arizona Cardinals	L 24-26	1573.73	1438.90	74.29%	25.48%	-17.08	9-7
2017-09-17	Chicago Bears	W 29-7	1502.01	1416.51	68.53%	31.23%	+23.85	1-0
2017-09-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-34	1525.86	1492.06	47.44%	52.33%	-31.82	1-1
2017-10-01	New York Giants	W 25-23	1494.04	1441.46	64.33%	35.44%	+8.16	2-1
2017-10-05	New England Patriots	L 14-19	1502.20	1584.48	45.37%	54.40%	-16.51	2-2
2017-10-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 33-38	1485.69	1455.41	46.94%	52.83%	-17.08	2-3
2017-10-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 27-30	1468.61	1530.27	34.26%	65.51%	-9.65	2-4
2017-10-29	Carolina Panthers	L 3-17	1458.96	1481.90	53.88%	45.89%	-32.80	2-5
2017-11-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-30	1426.16	1598.48	21.60%	78.17%	-15.73	2-6
2017-11-12	New York Jets	W 15-10	1410.43	1467.49	48.98%	50.79%	+18.47	3-6
2017-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-20	1428.90	1404.57	46.08%	53.68%	+27.61	4-6
2017-11-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-34	1456.51	1606.61	23.85%	75.92%	-14.53	4-7
2017-12-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-26	1441.98	1460.51	40.04%	59.73%	-15.96	4-8
2017-12-10	Detroit Lions	L 21-24	1426.02	1501.86	46.28%	53.48%	-13.05	4-9
2017-12-18	Atlanta Falcons	L 21-24	1412.97	1615.82	29.32%	70.45%	-8.27	4-10
2017-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	L 19-22	1404.70	1592.78	20.11%	79.66%	-5.67	4-11
2017-12-31	New Orleans Saints	W 31-24	1399.03	1673.93	21.51%	78.26%	+33.67	5-11
2017-09-10	Oakland Raiders	L 16-26	1474.50	1510.78	51.97%	47.80%	-26.73	0-1
2017-09-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-16	1447.77	1497.06	35.88%	63.89%	+47.61	1-1
2017-09-24	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-27	1495.38	1524.17	53.05%	46.72%	+18.62	2-1
2017-10-01	@ Houston Texans	L 14-57	1514.00	1463.27	49.87%	49.89%	-53.21	2-2
2017-10-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-16	1460.79	1442.25	45.26%	54.51%	-18.03	2-3
2017-10-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 36-22	1442.76	1427.93	59.21%	40.56%	+24.69	3-3
2017-10-22	@ Cleveland Browns	W 12-9	1467.45	1312.92	64.38%	35.39%	+9.98	4-3
2017-11-05	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1477.43	1509.07	52.64%	47.13%	+13.28	5-3
2017-11-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-20	1490.71	1456.08	61.93%	37.84%	+12.32	6-3
2017-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-40	1503.03	1613.38	28.25%	71.52%	-22.06	6-4
2017-11-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 20-16	1480.97	1385.51	56.27%	43.49%	+14.16	7-4
2017-12-03	Houston Texans	W 24-13	1495.13	1456.49	62.47%	37.30%	+20.13	8-4
2017-12-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-12	1515.26	1409.87	57.68%	42.09%	-20.97	8-5
2017-12-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 23-25	1494.29	1349.18	63.13%	36.64%	-14.52	8-6
2017-12-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-27	1479.77	1650.78	33.26%	66.51%	-10.83	8-7
2017-12-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 15-10	1468.94	1581.70	41.06%	58.71%	+7.12	9-7
2017-09-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-30	1506.50	1495.56	58.67%	41.10%	-34.40	0-1
2017-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-20	1472.10	1471.74	42.68%	57.09%	+24.57	1-1
2017-09-24	Oakland Raiders	W 27-10	1496.67	1561.63	47.84%	51.92%	+34.82	2-1
2017-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-29	1531.49	1631.93	29.42%	70.35%	-14.37	2-2
2017-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 26-24	1517.12	1346.71	77.98%	21.79%	+5.02	3-2
2017-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-34	1522.14	1584.67	34.14%	65.63%	-17.58	3-3
2017-10-29	Dallas Cowboys	L 19-33	1504.56	1548.81	50.83%	48.94%	-30.93	3-4
2017-11-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-14	1473.63	1593.52	27.15%	72.62%	+20.45	4-4
2017-11-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 30-38	1494.08	1571.28	46.09%	53.68%	-21.21	4-5
2017-11-19	@ New Orleans Saints	L 31-34	1472.87	1658.62	20.32%	79.45%	-5.73	4-6
2017-11-23	New York Giants	W 20-10	1467.14	1380.49	68.68%	31.09%	+16.00	5-6
2017-11-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-38	1483.14	1483.47	42.58%	57.19%	-33.94	5-7
2017-12-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-30	1449.20	1561.41	28.03%	71.74%	-18.82	5-8
2017-12-17	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-15	1430.38	1430.84	57.07%	42.69%	+15.53	6-8
2017-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 27-11	1445.91	1425.99	59.92%	39.85%	+25.94	7-8
2017-12-31	@ New York Giants	L 10-18	1471.85	1297.86	66.89%	32.87%	-30.76	7-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2018-01-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 26-13	1627.86	1598.06	46.98%	53.02%	+31.02	1-0
2018-01-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-15	1658.88	1678.52	40.00%	60.00%	-14.51	1-1
2018-01-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-10	1491.04	1574.59	31.58%	68.42%	-13.56	0-1
2018-01-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 26-31	1574.88	1640.26	33.88%	66.12%	-12.29	0-1
2018-01-07	Buffalo Bills	W 10-3	1574.59	1491.04	68.42%	31.58%	+13.56	1-0
2018-01-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 45-42	1588.15	1663.13	32.65%	67.35%	+18.93	2-0
2018-01-21	@ New England Patriots	L 20-24	1607.08	1733.83	26.46%	73.54%	-8.59	2-1
2018-01-06	Tennessee Titans	L 21-22	1599.96	1476.06	73.22%	26.78%	-11.88	0-1
2018-01-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-26	1598.06	1627.86	53.02%	46.98%	-31.02	0-1
2018-01-14	New Orleans Saints	W 29-24	1681.56	1652.55	61.29%	38.71%	+14.05	1-0
2018-01-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-38	1695.61	1693.04	43.10%	56.90%	-38.95	1-1
2018-01-13	Tennessee Titans	W 35-14	1721.73	1487.94	83.73%	16.27%	+12.10	1-0
2018-01-21	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1733.83	1607.08	73.54%	26.46%	+8.59	2-0
2018-02-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 33-41	1742.42	1731.99	51.50%	48.50%	-23.64	2-1
2018-01-07	Carolina Panthers	W 31-26	1640.26	1574.88	66.12%	33.88%	+12.29	1-0
2018-01-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-29	1652.55	1681.56	38.71%	61.29%	-14.05	1-1
2018-01-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 15-10	1678.52	1658.88	60.00%	40.00%	+14.52	1-0
2018-01-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-7	1693.04	1695.61	56.90%	43.10%	+38.95	2-0
2018-02-04	@ New England Patriots	W 41-33	1731.99	1742.42	48.50%	51.50%	+23.64	3-0
2018-01-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 42-45	1663.13	1588.15	67.35%	32.65%	-18.93	0-1
2018-01-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-21	1476.06	1599.96	26.78%	73.22%	+11.88	1-0
2018-01-13	@ New England Patriots	L 14-35	1487.94	1721.73	16.27%	83.73%	-12.10	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2017-12-31	14.51%	San Francisco 49ers	1405.07	34	@ Los Angeles Rams	1661.60	13
2	2017-12-11	17.95%	@ Miami Dolphins	1407.51	27	New England Patriots	1721.50	20
3	2017-12-31	21.17%	Cincinnati Bengals	1421.83	31	@ Baltimore Ravens	1598.63	27
4	2017-12-31	21.51%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1399.03	31	New Orleans Saints	1673.93	24
5	2017-12-31	22.57%	Dallas Cowboys	1526.25	6	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1688.77	0
6	2017-12-24	23.05%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1363.70	44	Jacksonville Jaguars	1623.08	33
7	2017-10-15	23.71%	New York Giants	1411.80	23	@ Denver Broncos	1563.25	10
8	2017-11-19	24.01%	@ New York Giants	1359.15	12	Kansas City Chiefs	1609.31	9
9	2017-11-26	24.52%	Buffalo Bills	1444.29	16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1587.97	10
10	2017-11-05	24.94%	Indianapolis Colts	1363.68	20	@ Houston Texans	1503.47	14
11	2017-10-15	25.16%	Miami Dolphins	1460.28	20	@ Atlanta Falcons	1598.06	17
12	2017-12-31	25.48%	Arizona Cardinals	1438.90	26	@ Seattle Seahawks	1573.73	24
13	2017-10-15	26.53%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1538.77	19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1664.12	13
14	2017-12-10	26.59%	San Francisco 49ers	1311.55	26	@ Houston Texans	1436.35	16
15	2018-01-06 *	26.78%	Tennessee Titans	1476.06	22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1599.96	21
16	2017-11-05	27.15%	Washington Redskins	1473.63	17	@ Seattle Seahawks	1593.52	14
17	2017-10-01	28.61%	Buffalo Bills	1519.11	23	@ Atlanta Falcons	1626.40	17
18	2017-10-15	28.61%	Chicago Bears	1388.78	27	@ Baltimore Ravens	1496.02	24
19	2017-09-24	28.79%	New Orleans Saints	1446.08	34	@ Carolina Panthers	1551.83	13
20	2017-10-01	28.81%	Carolina Panthers	1498.93	33	@ New England Patriots	1604.46	30
21	2017-10-01	28.89%	Los Angeles Rams	1457.94	35	@ Dallas Cowboys	1562.81	30
22	2017-09-24	30.43%	@ Chicago Bears	1392.65	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1586.30	17
23	2017-10-08	30.46%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1498.60	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1590.42	9
24	2017-12-03	30.78%	San Francisco 49ers	1300.33	15	@ Chicago Bears	1389.53	14
25	2017-10-15	31.13%	Los Angeles Rams	1463.90	27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1550.25	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2017-09-24	63.76	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	44	1449.44	35.31%	Baltimore Ravens	7	1553.79	64.46%
2	2017-12-31	63.54	San Francisco 49ers	34	1405.07	14.51%	@ Los Angeles Rams	13	1661.60	85.26%
3	2017-12-10	56.62	Chicago Bears	33	1378.31	31.48%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	7	1461.82	68.29%
4	2017-12-17	55.79	Los Angeles Rams	42	1594.99	41.79%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1600.99	57.98%
5	2017-09-10	55.08	@ Los Angeles Rams	46	1416.66	44.10%	Indianapolis Colts	9	1507.85	55.67%
6	2017-10-01	53.21	@ Houston Texans	57	1463.27	49.89%	Tennessee Titans	14	1514.00	49.87%
7	2017-09-24	52.90	New Orleans Saints	34	1446.08	28.79%	@ Carolina Panthers	13	1551.83	70.98%
8	2017-10-08	51.65	Jacksonville Jaguars	30	1498.60	30.46%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	9	1590.42	69.31%
9	2017-09-10	49.07	Jacksonville Jaguars	29	1447.99	35.44%	@ Houston Texans	7	1500.58	64.33%
10	2017-10-26	48.53	@ Baltimore Ravens	40	1460.54	52.61%	Miami Dolphins	0	1492.39	47.16%
11	2017-09-17	47.62	Tennessee Titans	37	1447.77	35.88%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	16	1497.06	63.89%
12	2017-11-19	46.46	Baltimore Ravens	23	1495.79	40.20%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1513.16	59.56%
13	2017-11-23	45.62	Los Angeles Chargers	28	1510.02	39.97%	@ Dallas Cowboys	6	1529.09	59.80%
14	2017-12-10	44.66	@ Denver Broncos	23	1353.35	42.52%	New York Jets	0	1455.70	57.25%
15	2017-10-15	44.60	New York Giants	23	1411.80	23.71%	@ Denver Broncos	10	1563.25	76.06%
16	2017-11-12	44.40	New Orleans Saints	47	1614.22	54.91%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1528.41	44.86%
17	2017-10-22	43.04	@ Los Angeles Rams	33	1499.19	53.72%	Arizona Cardinals	0	1472.48	46.05%
18	2017-09-10	42.83	Baltimore Ravens	20	1495.52	40.88%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	0	1508.01	58.89%
19	2017-11-19	41.52	Philadelphia Eagles	37	1632.90	51.54%	@ Dallas Cowboys	9	1570.61	48.23%
20	2017-12-24	41.38	@ San Francisco 49ers	44	1363.70	23.05%	Jacksonville Jaguars	33	1623.08	76.72%
21	2017-09-07	40.58	Kansas City Chiefs	42	1555.78	35.34%	@ New England Patriots	27	1609.15	64.43%
22	2017-11-19	39.72	@ Los Angeles Chargers	54	1470.30	55.20%	Buffalo Bills	24	1484.01	44.57%
23	2017-10-22	39.02	@ Los Angeles Chargers	21	1450.74	47.42%	Denver Broncos	0	1518.66	52.35%
24	2018-01-21 *	38.95	@ Philadelphia Eagles	38	1693.04	56.90%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1695.61	43.10%
25	2017-09-17	38.88	@ Denver Broncos	42	1536.67	51.97%	Dallas Cowboys	17	1572.97	47.80%